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The aftermath of Dean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:20 PM GMT on August 23, 2007

Dean's rampage across the Caribbean is history. Dean made its final landfall yesterday as a 100-mph Category 2 hurricane near the tourism and fishing town of Tecolutla, Mexico. A slogan one could have used throughout Dean's tour of the Caribbean is, "it could have been much worse". The storm hit halfway between the most populous cities in the region--Tampico, population 300,000, and Veracruz, population 444,000. The region Dean hit is known as Mexico's Emerald coast, and is dotted by villages, cattle ranches, and uncrowded beaches. The storm weakened rapidly as it moved inland, and passed about 75 miles north of Mexico city, dropping heavy rains along its path. The remains of Dean are expected to make it to the Pacific ocean this weekend, then get pulled northwards in to Arizona, potentially bringing extra rainfall there, but not flooding. Wunderblogger Randy Bynon has a blog with some great photos of his flight into Dean with the Hurricane Hunters yesterday.

Insured damage from Dean to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula was estimated at $400 million by one insurance company. Using the the usual rule of thumb that total damage is double the insured damage, the Yucatan suffered $800 million in damage. The total bill to Mexico from Dean will likely exceed $1 billion, when the damages from the storm's second landfall is factored in. Dean fortunately did little damage to the oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico that provide about one third of Mexico's cash.

Once again, Mexico came out of a major hurricane will no deaths reported. I am very impressed with how well Mexico's civil defense system has performed during the past three hurricanes. Mexico also had no deaths from Hurricane Emily, which hit the country twice--once as a Category 4 storm near Cozumel, then as a Category 3 hurricane south of the Texas border. Hurricane Wilma, which clobbered Cancun and the northern tip of the Yucatan for three days as a Category 4 hurricane, killed only four people. The low loss of life from these three major hurricanes is something Mexicans can be truly proud of.


Figure 1. Flooding on the island of Dominica from Hurricane Dean. Image credit: Mike Theiss.

How some of the other countries on Dean's list fared:

Belize
About 5% of the buildings in northern Belize were damaged, and there was some destruction to the papaya crop. Electricity is nearly restored, and water was never lost.

Jamaica
It could have been very, very much worse on Jamaica. Dean missed the island, bringing Category 1 and 2 hurricane conditions to just the southern portion of Jamaica. According to articles in the Jamaica Observer and Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica is making progress in the wake of the estimated $1.5 - $3 billion in damage left by Dean--the second most expensive hurricane in Jamaican history, next to the $4 billion in damage wrought by Hurricane Gilbert. Hurricane Dean cut water to 80% of the island, but by Wednesday, 48 hours after storm, water had been restored to 45% of the island. Half of the 248 roads blocked by the storm had been cleared, by Wednesday, and another 89 roads wad been opened for one lane traffic. Cruise ships had returned to the mostly undamaged northern part of the island. All of the hotels on the island are open except one. Most of the island is still without power, but 50% of Jamaica should have power by the weekend. There is significant damage on the South Coast 69 Kv transmission line and severe damage to the power transmission infrastructure in the east and south, and it may be many weeks before power is restored to the entire island. Cell phone communication is available on 70% of the island.

Only three deaths were reported on Jamaica, which is far fewer than the 17 deaths suffered during Hurricane Ivan and the 45 deaths from Hurricane Gilbert. Better building codes and better hurricane awareness and planning are to credit for this low death toll. Jamaica has done a great job preparing for and recovering from this storm.

There were media reports of a 114 mph sustained wind measured in Kingston during Dean, which I though sounded unreasonably high. The Kingston airport measured top sustained winds of 81 mph. I asked Jeff Meeks, who weathered the storm in Kingston, about this. He said his suburb of Kingston--Barbican--had sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 63 mph, with 5.24 inches of rain. He further commented,

There was no possibility of 114mph sustained winds in any part of Kingston. The damage is just not there. Further I have another friend who also had a high gust of just 65mph. He is also located on the outskirts of Kingston. Norman Manley International is at the southern most extent of Kingston and would have been closest to the nearest approach of Dean and may have had higher winds but the damage there is also minimal. In truth Ivan from 2004 gave Kingston much more damage.

Haiti
Haiti suffered the highest death toll from Dean, eleven. Several hundred houses were damaged or destroyed on the south coast, and there was some moderate damage to agriculture. It could have been much worse. Haiti was lucky Dean moved by so quickly, and was not able to dump devastating amounts of rain on the country.

Lesser Antilles
The tourist industry in the Lesser Antilles was not significantly affected by Dean. All of the hotels on the affected islands are now open, and little damage occurred to the hotels. However, agriculture suffered tremendously. The banana crop was wiped out on St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica, and was 80% destroyed on Guadaloupe. The hardest hit island, Martinique, is estimating storm costs of $270 million. Phone service was knocked out to 50% of the island, and was still out to 35% of the island on Wednesday. St.Lucia is reporting $18 million in total damage, and Dominica is reporting $98 million in damage to infrastructure (agricultural damage may be another $100 million).

Wunderground Ultimate Chase blogger Mike Theiss was in Dominica for Hurricane Dean, and he's written a detailed account of what is was like to go through he hurricane, complete with some great photos.

After Dean, what next?
An area of disturbed area has developed just west of Jamaica in the western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave moving west-northwest at 15-20 mph. The wave is under 20 knots of wind shear, and I don't expect any development to occur. None of the reliable hurricane forecast models are calling for anything to develop in the next seven days.

I'll have a new blog Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M!
Thanks for the update Dr. M
This is the link to my rendevous with TS Erin as it came ashore last week.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/CycloneBoz/show.html

I was able to be directly under the center of circulation at landfall. It was pretty cool.
we need rain still in south georgia but we dont need a destructive hurricane. As if anyone needs one of those. So glad to hear nothing to be too concerned about.
Thanks for the update Dr.M -- no doubt all affected were very fortunate with respect to Dean's disasterous potential.

Hey Boz ... GREAT LINK .. nice work!
I knew the minute I posted a link the good Doc would change the blog . . . LOL

This could be the eventual fate of New Orleans:

1856 Last Island Hurricane
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Formed August 9, 1856 (uncertain)
Dissipated August 12, 1856
Highest winds 150 mph (240 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 934 mbar (hPa)
Damage Unknown, likely extreme
Fatalities 200+

The Last Island hurricane of 1856 was an intense Atlantic hurricane best known for having destroyed Last Island in southern Louisiana.

According to modern estimates by the NOAA the storm was probably a Category 4 hurricane with central pressure of around 934 mb. It tied with Hurricane Hugo as the 10th most intense hurricane to hit the mainland United States.

Effects on Last Island

Last Island, Louisiana was a popular resort for people seeking to escape the humidity, illness, and insects of southern Louisiana.

In the days leading up to August 10, vacationers noticed the sea churning and were mesmerized by the intensity and forms of the waves. Rev. Robert McAllister, a survivor, later wrote "Each breaker extended to the right and left as far as the eye, straining its vision, could reach... We did not know then as we did afterwards that the voice of those many waters was solemnly saying to us, 'Escape for thy life.'"

On August 9, people noticed a roaring noise out in the gulf, and cattle on the island walked back and forth nervously for hours. On August 10, the weather got worse with the skies turning black, and rain coming down in torrents. The hurricane swept over the island, and the storm lasted for two days.

A story later emerged, possibly a legend, that the resort guests attended a lavish ball at the hotel, as the hurricane's winds grew in intensity outside. When the storm broke with full force on the 10th, the doomed guests awaited for the Star, the steamer that serviced the island. However, the ship did not arrive in time. At 4 o'clock, the storm surge engulfed the entire island and destroyed all of the buildings, including the multi-story resort hotel. Certain versions of the tale say that the steamer did reach Last Island, but that it was too late. The pounding waves forced the ship aground, but some survivors managed to save themselves by climbing aboard the wreck.

At least 200 people were killed, and the island itself was split up into the Last Islands (Isles Dernieres). The island reportedly stayed submerged for several days before parts of it reemerged as nothing more than large sandbars. Following the storm surge, the remains of the Star was the only sign that an island had ever existed there. There were approximately 400 vacationers on the island, of which less than half survived.

The city of New Orleans was inundated with 13.14 inches (334 mm) of rain. Every building in the town of Abbeville, Louisiana was destroyed. There was severe flooding throughout Plaquemines Parish.
Thanks for the update...
Posted By: 7daysnopowerfrancis at 2:52 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.
Hey cane whisperer....does the former 92L have the potential to become a depression? I remember Tropical Storm Jerry of 95, that was a rainstorm and developed into a storm right as it crossed Florida (it was my first day of teaching ever, and I never saw my afternoon classes because the rain was so intense.)

Sue;0

Most likey no but, as with any low swirl right off our coast, I like to keep an eye on it.
morning everyone,

Its good to be back online since Dean passed south of Jamaica. I got electricity back last night and had the best sleep in 4 days. Still no water but hoping that will be restored sometime today. My house is intact, just got some water coming in.
wow bahahurricane.. i have never heard that story before. thats very interesting.
Thanks Dr. Masters! It's truly wonderful to see the trend "It could have been much worse" for most of the areas affected by Dean. Granted some were not so lucky and my thoughts and prayers are with them.
Thanks sdcbassman. :)

Being alone on that waterlogged roadway driving through pounding rain and buffetting wind had me puckered for a good 15 minutes.

When you look at the video, you can hear the natural audio of the scene. There was absolutely no wind, not even a breeze. And the surf is not too bad, either. The time I spent there in the center was exactly what you'd expect from a storm trying to attain hurricane strength.

The other cool thing. I was alone on the beach. No one else made it to the landfall.
Without any convection the low should die out over time.All is quiet in the tropics through the weekend.
Sure SHOULD 23! I never hang my hat on should though. I'll watch it for ya, how about that.
16. Inyo
Looking at the E-Pac Infared Imagery, it almost looks like the remains of Dean are rotating clockwise! I'm sure it's just some other wind current.. but it is weird, and probably doesn't bode well for redevelopment.
I must say there was some very interesting reading last night on the blog....some of the most intelligent posting I have seen in months.

Good job STL,Guygee and a few newbies who brought some good info to the table.
Good tidings, jamweather! Be well! :)
Hey cane!You know things could have been much worse with DEAN as it didn't directly hit any place where there was a great deal to break.

Nothing but sunny skies here in miami.Adrian
Baha, that reminds me very much of a dream I once had, about being at a fancy party as a hurricane approached. I worked in Abbeville after Hurricane Lily, so maybe a spirit from there was working in my dreams ;)
good afternoon.
I think I first read about that hurricane just before Katrina hit New Orleans. I'd been trying to find out about storms that had previously affected the area.

The kind of devastation done at Last Island is what is feared by other areas with low-lying barrier - type islands. This includes countries like the Bahamas and Belize as well as other US states like North Carolina, which regularly has islands cut in half or channels moved by hurricanes.
Buhdog, you made a good comment. Nights like last night remind us not to let the trolls take over. There's a lot of good, useful information and insightful discussion / comment to be found and enjoyed here.
Here in Utah we're expected to feel effects from Dean, here's the latest local weather discussion from the NWS:


WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL DRY THE AIRMASS AND ACT TO LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOISTURE FROM DEAN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
Dr. M. said that none of the models develop a system over the next 7 days. How much can we rely on that statement? I guess I'm questioning how many systems develop without hints from the models. Anyone have ideas on this for me.

Thx!
Ship Island S of Gulfport was cut in half by Camille, if I remember what the lady on the Ferry said correctly it was inhabited previously, she lived on it as a girl. The only thing left is the fort but they have started to rebuild, I did some GREAT body surfing there one afternoon in the spring of 06, CRYSTAL clear water, saw a stingray being CHASED by a group of catfish later in May. The park ranger I talked to on the last trip out said the rangers didn't take their stuff out of their little houses on the island because they had had to evacuate several times before Katrina and just didn't believe it would hit there and that hard. No sign of houses, much less any belongings which were just things they kept with them like photos, games books clothes etc. but still........Katrina went up over the fort and took some of the bricks down and a little earth on top but the damage wasn't great to the fort I don't think. Just everything outside of it was GONE and I think the channel between the two islands was wider?
looks like the blog is back to what it was two or three years ago, thanks guys!

It was so aggravating...you couldn't post anything other than what the NHC said without being called a wish caster. (That word should be banned.) I'm not against the NHC or TWC, but they sometimes hide behind the models. I like to get some other educated opinions (which this place gives us a chance to do like no other)
clwstmchasr: remember, the statement he made you can rely on: the models do not develop a system. he's not stating a system wont develop, he is stating the MODELS dont develop a system. That is fact, look at the models and you see that. again, that is not to say a system wont develop. those are two separate things.
To the other question about how many systems develop without hints from the models. I am not certain how many have developed with no hints, but I know they have. the models are not reliable at developing a system from nothing (in fact I dont think were designed to really do that), but they are much better suited once a system has been initialized.
Hey guys. What I found interesting was the TC probability map for today.

Pretty high probability shown off the coast of Africa.
Some more LA hurricane history for you.

According to this summary, eight hurricanes hit the LA coast in 15 years, THREE of them in 1960 alone. The area SE of NOLA was severely damaged in almost every instance. The LA coast is one of the few areas in the hurricane zone of the US (outside the NE coast) which had extensive human development / settlement at the time. Probably only the Carolina coast was as well populated.

Sometimes there is development even when none of the models forecast it.

I can remember Dr. Masters saying the same thing either this year or last year as he went on vacation, and out of nowhere, a TD formed.

It happens.
I am very impressed with how well Mexico's civil defense system has performed during the past three hurricanes

Me too! We might want to consider having them run ours.
nash28: i lost my link to the TC Probability...care to post it for me? Thanks
Just everything outside of it was GONE and I think the channel between the two islands was wider?

I think Katrina widened channels there and through the Chandeleurs, etc.
Here is the link to the Probability page.

Link
thank you I understand now
The Cheniere Caminanda hurricane in 1893 was also very bad, particularly because it destroyed so much of the various barrier islands.

Personally, I think people living on these islands put their lives more at risk by remain on them during storms than do most Bahamians in the same setting. Most of us live on islands that have a least a few points that exceed 30 feet in height. I'd be afraid to stay if there was nowhere higher than a potential storm surge for me to run to. . .
Dr M quoted in New York Times today. Kudos.
why do people like to blog more than being in the community chat room?
Sebastion you seem to be on something. Now Dr Masters mentions the area in his blog. Looks like that area is becoming more favorable. Maybe ex 92 will drag it NW
There's an area that looks like mid level rotation to me in the ITCZ about due south of iTCZ. Anybody else see it on EUMETSAT? Not mcuh convection:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=RGB,f=1,c=FOG,se=4,n=6,d=1,v=1 00,pp=0,t=200708122100#controls
Is the Erin offshore New Jersey?
Something from the Farmers' Almanac site:

8th-11th Hurricane threat for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Thunderstorms sweep in from west, then clearing.

Some past forecasts from this month that prove this forecast has a chance:

1st-3rd A tropical cyclone threat for Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. Chantal passed about 200 miles east.

12th-15th Hurricane threat for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Hit-or-miss locally strong thunderstorms. Dean took the southern track instead. And I did get a strong storm.

16th-19th Remnants of a tropical weather system channels locally heavy rain toward Virginias. Remnants of Erin.

20th-23rd Wet, then fair skies return. This forecast was right for me.


So people in the Northeast may need to watch the tropics come September. Remember - they claim they're right 80% of the time. And they're living up to their claim this month.
The Remnants of Dean is now 93E Invest



Hi all,

Just thought I would read up on the post for a minute. Couldn't help but notice the mention of NC building on the islands. That is right! Houses going up everywhere. But what gets me is they build houses with bridges in front of them! Because the storms change the inlets. Now it seems crazy, but I seen it!
Congratulations are in order for the people and governments of Mexico and Jamaica, as it sounds like they did an excellent job prepping and keeping people safe. Sadly, this shows how pathetic the US federal, state and local governments were with Katrina.
why do people like to blog more than being in the community chat room?

chat doesn't work from behind my firewall at work...
Looks like there is clearly a low level circulation with ex 92L but it is naked.
Ship Island S of Gulfport was cut in half by Camille, if I remember what the lady on the Ferry said correctly it was inhabited previously, she lived on it as a girl. The only thing left is the fort but they have started to rebuild, I did some GREAT body surfing there one afternoon in the spring of 06, CRYSTAL clear water, saw a stingray being CHASED by a group of catfish later in May. The park ranger I talked to on the last trip out said the rangers didn't take their stuff out of their little houses on the island because they had had to evacuate several times before Katrina and just didn't believe it would hit there and that hard. No sign of houses, much less any belongings which were just things they kept with them like photos, games books clothes etc. but still........Katrina went up over the fort and took some of the bricks down and a little earth on top but the damage wasn't great to the fort I don't think. Just everything outside of it was GONE and I think the channel between the two islands was wider?
Maybe this is what New Orleans needs: let the whole area flood, then build everything on houseboats and stilts . . .

Camardelle inhabitants at Barataria Bay were totally dependent upon seasonal
fishing and trapping because there was no space available for agriculture.
Camardelle citizens lived on wharves and houseboats and took
their homes with them. even if the dwellings had to be dismantled, as seasonal
activities changed.


Found at www.coast2050.gov/reports/bia/ch2a.pdf
Posted By: zingocat at 1:03 PM EDT on August 23, 2007.

Hi all,

Just thought I would read up on the post for a minute. Couldn't help but notice the mention of NC building on the islands. That is right! Houses going up everywhere. But what gets me is they build houses with bridges in front of them! Because the storms change the inlets. Now it seems crazy, but I seen it!


I don't understand that. If they know enough to be sure that a channel will eventually form there (thus necessitating the bridge), why would they build / let people build on that site????

Stilts or something like that I could understand . . . or even building the house ON the bridge . . .
Looks like some action below Cuba-it seems to be the only game in town. Moving NNW...
anything out there that we should keep our eyes on?
Just read the Accueweather and Crown weather disussion and both of them are saying that nothing is expected to develop over the next few days.

It is a quiet time right now.
Ya I definitely see rotation off east coast of Fla. Not sure what that is from (92L remnants in GOM now). But NO convection whatsoever. I woulda thought these micro circulations would build convection with the HP around in water they're over but I guess they need bigger draw from lower pressure to build much.
Houses on the islands are built on stilts. Use to be this was barren land. South end of island was full of little beach cottages. Those days are gone. New bridge built in 70's at north end made it grow. And today there are homes worth millions of dollars there.

From what I understand, the hurricanes change the inlets and the Army Core of Engineers deem it a inlet. Storm comes, inlet changes. Thus more inlets. Storms fill in inlets with sand and suddenly its beach front property!!! Build a house with the bridge in your front yard!

I understand you cant even get flood insurance on part of the island, but that has not stopped it from growing. Some homes were condemned after Isabel a few years ago. Now there is a big lawsuit about that. I think, not sure, but they do get private insurance. But these are big beautiful three and four story homes. Most of them vacation homes.

Glad to see Dean is over and Mexico can begin cleanup. Rain to the north with flooding, we are hot and dry in south!
Posted By: littlefish at 5:45 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.
"Ya I definitely see rotation off east coast of Fla. Not sure what that is from (92L remnants in GOM now). But NO convection whatsoever. I woulda thought these micro circulations would build convection with the HP around in water they're over but I guess they need bigger draw from lower pressure to build much."

I don't know if that circulation is the northern left-over part of x92L or something else, as x92L became very disorganized. Regardless, the circulation is at the surface according to Buoy and BGI wind directions, and pressures are trending lower although coming down from high readings. The circulation seems to be growing and only drifting slowly west.
Personally I am hoping for some rains over parched Central FL, so I am rooting for this thing to pop some convection.
Ship Island S of Gulfport was cut in half by Camille, if I remember what the lady on the Ferry said correctly it was inhabited previously, she lived on it as a girl. The only thing left is the fort but they have started to rebuild, I did some GREAT body surfing there one afternoon in the spring of 06, CRYSTAL clear water, saw a stingray being CHASED by a group of catfish later in May. The park ranger I talked to on the last trip out said the rangers didn't take their stuff out of their little houses on the island because they had had to evacuate several times before Katrina and just didn't believe it would hit there and that hard. No sign of houses, much less any belongings which were just things they kept with them like photos, games books clothes etc. but still........Katrina went up over the fort and took some of the bricks down and a little earth on top but the damage wasn't great to the fort I don't think. Just everything outside of it was GONE and I think the channel between the two islands was wider?
Posted By: philliesrock at 4:54 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.
Something from the Farmers' Almanac site:

they claim they're right 80% of the time.
--------------------------------------
Well, Philliesrock The almanac is in the 20% wrong zone in my area for the whole month so far. Dry as a bone.
south of cuba seems to trying to something is there a spin going on i cant tell thanks
Link
Afternoon all.

Yep, the Atl is eerily quiet for this time of year. I am afraid that won't last for the rest of the season though.
From someone living in Mexico I have to agree with Dr. M. The Mexican response has been a MODEL for the US to learn from. I was so incredibly impressed by the detail of preparedness here in Mexico. Much was learned from Wilma, but even with Wilma, Mexico was light-years ahead in preparation and response compared to what was displayed in the media from the US response to Katrina. Today we have power and water is off and on, but we expect to have water later on today. Course we're under threatening skies from the Cuba disturbance so maybe we'll take a rain shower instead. Electricity is SO GOOD. Tomorrow we head to Chetumal to donate and clear property and roads.
Doesn't look like much of a spin, but a definate burst of moisture. Do any of the models hint at possible dev?
Amy, what was your question?

Got to run, see y'all in a little while.
Buhdog - Thank you for your compliment on page 1. I write here because it challenges me to learn, but if my posts are interesting to you and others that is a special bonus for me.
x92l looks like it has a little spin??? or is it just me? I'm not that good at this yet.
NRAamy-seems to me there would be minimal impact-maybe some moisture & rain but probably not much-I guess theoretically it could spin up and go up the coast-but the cool waters would kill it.
The disturbance y'all are referring to in the western Carribe was included in Dr, M's blog. He said 20 mph shear and no dev. expected.
Amy - I've checked your blog and you all are obviously having "too much fun" (Cue Commander Cody). Me, I'm more of a weed, whites and wine and I'll be willin' type guy.

So what was the question again?
From someone living in Mexico I have to agree with Dr. M. The Mexican response has been a MODEL for the US to learn from. I was so incredibly impressed by the detail of preparedness here in Mexico.

Yeah the governments response was great, but the peoples response was better....
You know what makes me laugh is No one in Mexico is standing around saying the government needs to take care of me.....Yeah the government has a certain responsibility but it is not to wipe everyones rear end...
Many Americans have forgotten how to be self sufficient....The Mexicans see that the water is rising they A either move to higher ground, or B they swim, alot of Americans see the water rising, and they close them self in the smallest most air tight room in their house...

You want proof that my rambeling is correct, a Cat 5 hurricane strikes the Yucatan, no deaths reported... Tropical storm Erin hits Texas 9 people in 4 other states die...

The next possible development is at 33 west and 8 north and derives from the last major wave off of Africa. It was forcarst earlier by the CMC model to become a storm of some level. That portion of the tropical wave now has a limited rotation and should be watched for development.
The circulation off the E coast of FL shows up on the 850 mb GFS and CMC. They both show the circulation moving slowly to the NW and dissipating over the peninsula.
Interesting this year, several 'naked surface lows last few days but no development on any of them. And they've been over warm waters. Maybe the air is too dry from continental US getting blown out over W Atl from the high pressure in SE? Thoguhts anyone?
littlefish - From the way the tops are blowing off of what little convection that is near the E. FL. swirl, I would guess it is under a good bit of NE shear from an upper high just off the CONUS mid-Atlantic coast. WV loop shows that it is not really dry air that is inhibiting convection.

Edit - Well, buoy 41010 1750Z shows (ATMP): 83.8 F Dew Point (DEWP): 75.9 F, so it is no exactly moist at the surface either.
That area south of Cuba seems headed our way. It's currently overcast here as a result. Maybe this is where the weekend rains will come from.

BTW, isn't the broad area of unsettled weather now in the WCar as a result of the same Twave that spawned 92L?

How many days left??

98 days left.
I was just looking at the hi-res satellite loop south of Cuba and it really appears to me that there is a spin just east of Little Cayman.

Has anyone else seen the same?
Thanx guygee.
With 98 days left, I feel pretty confident that we will have 8-10 more named storms before it winds down.

September and October should be busy.
South of Cuba the shear is down from this morning but still up to 20 kts according to cimms. I can't pick up much of a swirl on sat. Radar out of Cuba shows a lot of rain but no rotation. Still worth monitoring considering how well its maintained convection today.
I think our country being the super power that it is has the ignorant people believing they have super powers of not having to worrie about a little storm surge. Couple that with how convieniantly they just go to walmart whenever we need something, so few americans ever prepare for natuaral disasters. Or take them seriously for that matter. Mexico's response was aided by a public willing to listen and people realizing only idiots hang around for a hurricane to destroy everything they own and possibly get killed in the process.
The convection over and south of Cuba looks to be caused by upper-level divergence from the ULL to the west, but the upper level winds over the convection is taking on an anti-cyclonic twist. I could not pick out any low-level circulation from the loops, but it could be an area to watch if the shear lets up.

BBL!
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:08 PM EDT on August 23, 2007.

Yep, the Atl is eerily quiet for this time of year.


I don't know about u guys but this feels very strongly like the calm before the storm. Usually this time of year we get at least a wave or something going through so we can have a heavy tropical downpour in time for the kids to go back to school . . .
Yes, the convection off southern Cuba could blow up, but that's just it..the shear is there to disperse it. Still, the waters are so hot, it could flare up some this evening and become tropical in spite of shear conditions.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:39 AM PDT on August 23, 2007.

it was my mistake Amy, my bad


Thank you, jp...
I know you posted the link quite a while ago Baha hurricane, but I really enjoyed the link regarding louisiana hurricane history. THAT is the reason I keep coming here even though the "tone" of the blog has changed in the last year....it's still a great place for information. Thanks!!
Bama,

I got the impression from reporting of the Erin deaths that many many of them happened because people assumed a TS was not harmful.

This being swept away by torrential rains, especially after a summer like the one the Midwest and TX have been having, just seems illogical to me. I mean, after having record rainfalls all over the place, people can't figure out "turn around, don't drown"?? Where are u going that is so important? After all, if you are dead, you aren't going to get there, anyway.

Sometimes it seems people's understanding of what happens in storms is still on the same level as 1853, when almost 200 people died on a barrier island in LA.
Nash says "With 98 days left, I feel pretty confident that we will have 8-10 more named storms before it winds down.""

How about if there were only 69 days left, (as in the end of Ocober), would you still have as much hope? I know the official dates, but not that many Hurricanes around Holloween.
Yeah the governments response was great, but the peoples response was better....
You know what makes me laugh is No one in Mexico is standing around saying the government needs to take care of me.....Yeah the government has a certain responsibility but it is not to wipe everyones rear end...


Bama, it's not like the government there didn't have to move people and so on; it's more like people had a better idea of what their needs and capabilities actually are. Same seemed true in Belize. People who needed help seemed to have sought it in a timely fashion.

And there were still people who figured they could ride it out and hid from the police when it was time to evacuate. I did note, however, that the police / army didn't make any "heroic" efforts to go rescue those people when their houses fell down at the height of the storm. Either you rode it out, or you made your own way to shelter. I'm sure this sounds callous, but I don't have much respect for people who put themselves in harm's way, then expect other people to come rescue them when things get tough.
93E is what's left of Dean, did anyone notice? But it will not be named Dean, since it became a remnant low. It will be named Gil.
Ship Island S of Gulfport was cut in half by Camille, if I remember what the lady on the Ferry said correctly it was inhabited previously, she lived on it as a girl. The only thing left is the fort but they have started to rebuild, I did some GREAT body surfing there one afternoon in the spring of 06, CRYSTAL clear water, saw a stingray being CHASED by a group of catfish later in May. The park ranger I talked to on the last trip out said the rangers didn't take their stuff out of their little houses on the island because they had had to evacuate several times before Katrina and just didn't believe it would hit there and that hard. No sign of houses, much less any belongings which were just things they kept with them like photos, games books clothes etc. but still........Katrina went up over the fort and took some of the bricks down and a little earth on top but the damage wasn't great to the fort I don't think. Just everything outside of it was GONE and I think the channel between the two islands was wider?
103. JLPR
wow there is nothing in all of the basins wow and its august!!!!
this is amazing
:O
Posted By: LuvsStorms at 3:12 PM EDT on August 23, 2007.

I know you posted the link quite a while ago Baha hurricane, but I really enjoyed the link regarding louisiana hurricane history.



Did u mean this one? Some more LA hurricane history for you.

I got curious about the LA hurricane record and came across that. Google is a wonderful tool . . .

Glad I have something to contribute.
106. JLPR
looks like we could see some action if that last wave in Africa mantains convection when it gets to water
Link
What is that Weather456?
Baha,
Yeah I know what you mean, sounds like we are on the same side of the fence with all of that...

I also must agree it has got to be the calm before the storm that we are going through right now...
With the drought and heat that is going on in this area right now, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we are in for a bumpy ride for the rest of the season...
And also wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the year we make up for most of the deficits in rainfall and so forth by several tropical systems weather it be TD's, TS's, or hurricanes....
I have a question everyone. Does anyone know how far the Mid Atlantic Ridge is from the Cape Verde Islands or the Lesser Antilles islands. If no one knows what the ridge is I will post a link if needed. Just come to my blog and help me figure it out. Google doesn't answer the question. I appreciate it thank you.
BTW, Bangladesh, which basically IS a flood plain (it's the delta of the Ganges) has much of the same problems as Louisiana. However, it's population is anywhere from 5 - 10 times as great, if I remember correctly. They have really horrible storm surge there when hurricanes hit (the land formation acts like a funnel for tides), and hurricane death tolls which are similar to Katrina's are actually considered light! The worst hurricane disaster in known history took place there in 1970, when more than 300,000 people were killed - by a cat 2 hurricane (I do believe it was a large and slow-moving one).

Nevertheless,people continue to live there on islands much like the barrier islands and swamp lands of SE Louisiana. I think they grow rice there.
There is 90W 91W 92W and 93E right now. 93E are the remnants of CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DEAN.
Praia is the capital of the Cape Verdes.

Also look at Mid ATL map.
Gulf of Mexico and Southwest North Atlantic

A persistent ridge of high pressure continues to be stationed over the Central and Southern sections of the Eastern US. This ridge continues to be associated with a relative dry airmass extending from the Tennessee Valley southward over much of the Gulf of Mexico. Fair to partly cloudy skies and very warm weather with light to moderate anticyclonic flow is over the area. Afternoon showers develop under the diffluent flow of the ridge over South Carolina and Georgia last evening, now weakening over southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

The remnants of Dean over Central Mexico with extensive scattered clouds with possible showers from 10N to 20N west of 95W.

An upper low is now entering the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico accompanied by widely scattered showers spreading over the area from the Yucatan to Southern Florida. More on this feature in the Caribbean section.

A tall ridge of high of pressure continues to be the predominate weather maker in the Southwest Atlantic with exceptionally fair/dry weather everywhere. Makes me want to take a cruise to the Bahamas or Bermuda.

by W456
Thanks for the map Baha, but I need to know the distance in either miles or meters from the Cape Verde Islands to the ridge, I know what the ridge is.
Come on up, 456!
So is it safe to say that there are no tropical storms/systems anywhere in the world right now at this given point in time???
Still wondering about the low level COCs we see but no convection in the last few days. Guygee mentioned shear but that still doesn't explain the absence of convection. It would explain convection getting blown off, but the system sitting off Fla has no convection and yet shows circulation. I think it is the 2nd or 3rd surface low with rotation and basically no convection. Seems weird with the HP and SSTs. Maybe the pressure are too high to draw in moisture?
Do you need something exact? If not, a rough measure can be taken from the map.
123. KRL
Posted By: dean2007 at 7:36 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.
I have a question everyone. Does anyone know how far the Mid Atlantic Ridge is from the Cape Verde Islands or the Lesser Antilles islands. If no one knows what the ridge is I will post a link if needed. Just come to my blog and help me figure it out. Google doesn't answer the question. I appreciate it thank you.


Each degree of longitude is about 69 miles. So figure 20 x 69 roughly 1,500 miles.
Caribbean

A tropical wave is estimated to be near 86W-87W south of 23N moving west near 15 Knots. the wave continues to interact with an upper low entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico to produce scattered showers over the Northwestern Caribbean with the most intense between the Cayman Islands and Cuba. There are no indications of a surface low or surface circulation and pressure in the vicinity remains constant according to 24 hr pressure tendency out of the Caymans and Buoy 42056.

Except for a few showers from a tropical wave over Puerto Rico and the ITCZ near Venezuela and Trinidad/Tobago, fine weather dominates. The trades are light to moderate this afternoon and have return to a more easterly component over much of the Caribbean.

by W456
I was looking at the SSD circulation map and it shows a circulation off the african coast...and there seems to be some scattered moderate convection. something to watch if it persists
its kinda funny because what might happen is that it will be quiet now, until in like a week or two, we will have a huge burst of activity lol. just my guess lol. the tropics are funny like that.
Some photos of damage in Jamaica at Http//Picasaweb.google.com/Uvesedwards/Dean Was Mean/
cayman: Could not open the pics.
1200 nw west of CV Islands, 900NM east of Ant.
A part of the NHC's discussion on Dean from last night:

THE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE
FASTER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE
REGENERATION OCCURS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
yes, that was the link I was talking about Baha, made for great reading..thanks again!
Maybe the pressure are too high to draw in moisture?

Pressures are much lower than average across the Atlantic, at least they have been for the last 30 and 90 days (I doubt that they suddenly rose recently):





Lower than average pressure is favorable for development as this shows:

Yea Storm w no damage at all thank God. Was a really close call however and not letting down our guard just yet.
Well we should definatly watch the wave coming off africa. this wave could get out of shear in a couple days and should be watched closely. SSD maps, as i said earlier, picks up a circulation with the wave
The distance per degree of longitude changes as the latitude changes - Max distance at equator, 0 distance at poles

The navigational standard is one NM per minute of LATITUDE - 60 minutes of lat = 1 Degree or 60 NM... There is a small change from 0 deg to 90 Deg of lat but it's not worth quibbiling over.
probability of 93E is 1%
Also, here is something interesting (especially since it is totally off the chart) that I found, though I can't really find anything about how it affects hurricane activity (in the Atlantic or elsewhere), other than what it says for the current state, which perfectly describes the current situation:



Stage 1 (La-Nina like) the global relative AAM anomaly is negative. The negative anomaly is primarily due to easterly upper level wind anomalies that extend from the Eastern Hemisphere tropics to the Western Hemisphere mid-latitudes. A retracted Pacific Ocean jet stream is a key feature in the total field. Troughs are probable across the western USA with a ridge over the southeast. High impact weather is favored across the Plains.

Description
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
249 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007
ILC031-043-089-097-111-232345-
249 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT...
* AT 249 PM...RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. THIS RAIN FALLING
OVER SATURATED GROUND WILL RESULT IN RAPID STREET FLOODING AND RISES
IN SMALL STREAMS.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
LAT...LON 4176 8856 4173 8759 4243 8795 4243 8859
$$
MORRIS

Good pics. I hope everyone is able to rebuild as soon as possible and stay safe. I noticed that some of the buildings which had the hip roof design were all in tack and the ones with the gable finish failed. Just an observation.
Thanks icepilot. I appreciate it a lot. I'm going to start writing a book tomorrow with all of the information at my disposal now, I will finally be able to write it at once. I'm almost 18 and I'm taking a year off of school to get the three book novel going at least, hopefully the first draft will be done this year.
Chicago is getting blasted:



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
330 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

ILC031-197-232100-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-070823T2100Z/
COOK IL-WILL IL-
330 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
WILL AND SOUTHERN COOK COUNTIES...

* AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR OAK FOREST...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT IN COOK COUNTY...THIS STORM
WILL ALSO PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH
OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY AND IN EASTERN WILL COUNTY.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MERRIONETTE PARK...BLUE ISLAND...CALUMET PARK...AND POSEN BY 335
PM...
CHATHAM...7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURNHAM...AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CALUMET CITY BY 340 PM...
SOUTH CHICAGO...AND HYDE PARK BY 345 PM...

TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE
ABANDONED FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
I got it from here, there is also a 90 day graph.
Does anyone have more info about the
Tornado in Chicago?
Or do you know of any sites that could
give me info?
Could someone please let me know what the odds of a system sparking up in the Atlantic if none of the current models are predicting one. Does it happen and how often do the models predict far before the storm.I am still learning about these models and tropical origination so please treat this question like I am a student not a nagger. Thanks
don't think there has been a confirmed sighting yet.....the storm had reports of a 60mph gust front...
Well, they no longer have a tornado warning, but they might as well have one, considering what a derecho can do:


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
257 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

* AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES
WEST OF OHARE AIRPORT TO 25 MILES WEST OF WESTERN SPRINGS...AND
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
OHARE AIRPORT...ROSEMONT...WILLOW SPRINGS...AND WESTERN SPRINGS BY
325 PM...
PARK RIDGE...SUMMIT...RIVERSIDE...AND RIVER FOREST BY 330 PM...
STICKNEY...AND OAK PARK BY 335 PM...
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO BY 345 PM...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADO LIKE
WINDS
. SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
156. H2PV
Posted By: BahaHurican at 7:36 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.
BTW, Bangladesh, which basically IS a flood plain (it's the delta of the Ganges) has much of the same problems as Louisiana. However, it's population is anywhere from 5 - 10 times as great, if I remember correctly. They have really horrible storm surge there when hurricanes hit (the land formation acts like a funnel for tides), and hurricane death tolls which are similar to Katrina's are actually considered light! The worst hurricane disaster in known history took place there in 1970, when more than 300,000 people were killed - by a cat 2 hurricane (I do believe it was a large and slow-moving one).

Nevertheless,people continue to live there on islands much like the barrier islands and swamp lands of SE Louisiana. I think they grow rice there.


Bangladesh topography is strongly affected by a major earthquake in the 1950s (1954?), which raised some lands and lowered others. Major flooding of great parts of the nation had been extremely rare before that. Millions of people suddenly found themselves living in an ancestral homeland which had changed radically. Nothing about that was their fault or their "stupidity" moving to a floodplain.

The politics was screwed by a couple centuries of British Piracy robbing the region through conquest and brutal oppression. East India was partitioned to be part of Pakistan because the Muslim religion they both shared was very different than the Hindu and Buddhism of India -- nothing about that was particularly "their fault, as people tend to have the religion of the family they were born into.

Cold war geopolitics and gunboat diplomacy insured that Bangla never had a chance other than to be exploited by international bankers and traders armed with nuclear weapons to back up their unfair trading schemes. Not their fault.

It used to be that the monsoons came at one time of the year and the spring melt in the Himilayas came in another. Upstream neighbors in Nepal deforested the mountains increasing the suddenness of spring melts. Not their fault.

Global warming changed the timing of the peak spring melt to match the monsoons. Not their fault.

The protective coastal mangroves were cleared by World Bank loans to grow shrimps and prawns for American dinner tables and restaurants. Not any more their fault than it is ours.

Ship Island S of Gulfport was cut in half by Camille, if I remember what the lady on the Ferry said correctly it was inhabited previously, she lived on it as a girl. The only thing left is the fort but they have started to rebuild, I did some GREAT body surfing there one afternoon in the spring of 06, CRYSTAL clear water, saw a stingray being CHASED by a group of catfish later in May. The park ranger I talked to on the last trip out said the rangers didn't take their stuff out of their little houses on the island because they had had to evacuate several times before Katrina and just didn't believe it would hit there and that hard. No sign of houses, much less any belongings which were just things they kept with them like photos, games books clothes etc. but still........Katrina went up over the fort and took some of the bricks down and a little earth on top but the damage wasn't great to the fort I don't think. Just everything outside of it was GONE and I think the channel between the two islands was wider?
159. Inyo
Are Dean's remnants an Invest? If so, will they show up on the map? I'm curious about model runs
was watching the Cubs on WGN and they reported that the Control Tower at O"Hare was evacuated...

I would guess because of the wind...
Skyepony.......
thanks for the info
in Chicago
Yeah,The beaches everywhere are quite now, enjoy them while you can because SOMEWHERE out there a strange wind is about to blow up a anti cyclonic spin on the sea surface. A cyclonic high is building over top of it and there is no shere to interfere with it's progress just north of Puerto Rico. Will it be a Fish storm and turn out of to sea, or will it continue it's west to wnw track? Or do some of you see a Northern component to it that would keep it perhaps from our FL. friends even though there land is parched from lack of rain. The models may be mostly in agreement that it will continue it's west motion into the Fl.Straights and then a turn more northwestward around the Bermuda High that is causing all the Heat in the Southeast US these days. The wishcasters are say they see a front coming down from the northwest that will turn the now C3 due north into the West side of Fl. but knowone else or the models even see a front on the map, Oh but the wishcasters see that front coming and they can since the wind beginning to blow from the SW and it will turn that now C4 into there neighborhood so they don't feel left out from all the chaos. One of the models defers from all the rest and has it going to the SW toward the center of GOM and here goes the wishcaster putting down that model, "don't the model see that front coming" @#$&*^$#&* that stupid model says the wishcasters. Will the GFDL be right or will the wishcasters unfortunately get there wish but never be a wishcaster again.
Dont' Know if this has been posted yet.

A video of Dean from Space Pretty impressive.

Link

Click video link to the right.
I keep posting the same thing, satellite, over wireless from a house 100 yds away, picking it up through laptop and then to THIS computer. BAD BAD inernet.
hey deferrucci, that is a very good question, I believe that storms form all the time when the models dont even show anything developing. then they adjust the computers accordingly. nobody can predict the weather more than 3 days in advance. Sometimes not even a day in advance.
Posted By: Inyo at 9:03 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.

Are Dean's remnants an Invest? If so, will they show up on the map? I'm curious about model runs

Yes, it is 93E
167. LLJ
Storm reports, Chicago. Link
Posted By: boobless at 9:29 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.

Diversion.
Pretend I have just received 15" of rain in a 5 hr period beginning at 12:00 GMT.

My rain collection container is 12"x12"x12" (a square box 1 ft high).

What time will it overflow?


Well, assuming the rate of rainfall was constant, it began to overflow at 16:00 GMT.
DG/winner
Posted By: boobless at 9:29 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.

Bonus questions:
I want to add a measuring device to the bottom of my square box. I have a 40 ft length of square clear plastic tubing that measures 6" x 6".

How long would the sq tubing have to be to capture 15"of rain without backing up into the collection box ?

How far up the column (in inches from the ground up) would a 1/2" rain event measure?

How long before the neighborhood homeowner's association nazi makes me take it down?


The last bonus question is easy -- only so long as it took the kind neighborhood association member to double check your deed restrictions to make sure your pretty weather station was against the rules.

I don't understand the second question about measuring from the ground up, because location to the ground wasn't part of the diversion hypothetical.

As to the first question, you would need 60 inches, or 5 feet, of your 40 foot clear plastic tubing.

How'd I do?
Statement as of 10:00 am PDT on August 23, 2007
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude.
A broad area of disturbed weather...associated with the remnants of
Atlantic Hurricane Dean...is located near the coast of Mexico in
the vicinity of Manzanillo. Development...if any is expected to be
slow as the system moves westward or west-northwestward over the
next couple of days.
It should be noted that if this system were to regenerate into a
named tropical cyclone...it would not retain the name Dean since
Dean did not maintain its status as a tropical cyclone over the
mountains of Mexico.
your welcome StormW
Bonus questions:
I want to add a measuring device to the bottom of my square box. I have a 40 ft length of square clear plastic tubing that measures 6" x 6".

How long would the sq tubing have to be to capture 15"of rain without backing up into the collection box ?


60" I think.
DallasGumby knows how to construct rain guages!!
I was picturing the tubing stuck in the ground with the box on top. Not a factor. Except for my H Owners Assoc.
Cheers
Afternoon SW, good to see ya.

DG, boob, and tai, good stuff! Guess arithmetic can keep us occupied while things are a little slow ☺
Bangladesh is very much like Louisiana.......something I have been looking at too.
Posted By: boobless at 9:55 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.

DallasGumby knows how to construct rain guages!!
I was picturing the tubing stuck in the ground with the box on top. Not a factor. Except for my H Owners Assoc.
Cheers


Taistelutipu got it right too!
Anyone think we could have an Atlantic STS soon?

Link
Let me rephrase:
If I dumped the collector tubing and it rained 1/2 inch the next day (rainfall recorded by snooty neighbor with digital tipping bucket), How far up the tubing would this be?
Yes sir indeed. Taistelutipu as well. Winner was determined by post time.

Blame it on the internet Taistelutipu
DallasGumby knows how to construct rain guages!!

Or maybe he just completed an 8th grade algebra class.

How far up the column (in inches from the ground up) would a 1/2" rain event measure?


2 inches
Posted By: boobless at 10:00 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.

Let me rephrase:
If I dumped the collector tubing and it rained 1/2 inch the next day (rainfall recorded by snooty neighbor with digital tipping bucket), How far up the tubing would this be?


When you're done whacking the wonderful neighborhood association member over the head with the remaining tube -- if the 1/2" rain remained in the tube, it would take up 2" of the tube.

(As my high school student daughter will atest, I've always liked word problems in math.)
So what do I win? Do I get to name the next blob?
StormHype is correct and has complted 8th grade.
Insert the LOL thing HERE.
blob naming rights are granted.
Boy what a difference a few days make, and the start of school. This place is almost like a "ghost town"! LOL
uh, completed that is.
]
More Swirls.....Non tropical low in the Northwest Atlnatic

In your honor, I will name the next blob...

"booblessL"

No kidding GR! I think it is more the no storms as much as it is the no kids, although I am certain both are contributing.
195. SEFL
"Posted By: HurryKaneKata at 8:51 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.
Does anyone have more info about the
Tornado in Chicago?
Or do you know of any sites that could
give me info?"

A friend in Roselle, IL just reported a tornado 5 miles from his house.
Yes us Young bloggers Middle schoolers and High schoolers Now have school,for middle school we leave in the moring till 4:00pm so it is desert here in the morning i guess
Posted By: StormHype at 10:14 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.

In your honor, I will name the next blob...

"booblessL


I'm doin my best Sally Fields Oscar speech and I have done my part to fill the void.
thanks
Oops, I was too slow with my answer :-/ but thank you for the entertainment. Has been some time since my last acquaintance with this sort of maths.

My thanks go to StormJunkie as well for the explanation. I think I understand now a bit better what these models show. Fascinating stuff. :-)

I made a test run with the GFS and the 850 mb vorticity. If I'm not totally mistaken the remnants of Dean develop into something (nice dark red and pink shades) and move along the coast north towards Baja California. Apart from that I only saw some red blobs in the Eastern Pacific rotating around each other. In the Tropical Atlantic I haven't seen anything worth mentioning.
The GFS runs up to 168 h (7 days?) I was wondering how reliable it is after let's say 3 days. I guess there is a small chance that something might develop on the weekend although the model shows nothing yet.
I tried also others but they had even less "action" in store. According to the models it seems really quite out there.

Well, I hope I haven't been absolutely wrong with my interpretation of the models, correct me if I am.

I guess I'll go to bed now. (it's 1:30 am here) Have a nice evening!
93E - ex DEAN
slow blog???
SJ, u are right, it's both.

There was a notable dropoff in foolish posts once school started, even at the height of the storm. Then the storm basically ended, and we have gone from 1800 posts to about 1/2 that.

Enjoy the peace and quiet - I doubt it will last too long . . .
Hey StormW, anything over Afica right now that looking interesting?
I say we call the next blob Max after Max Mayfeild
Tropics may be quiet but the country's midsection is getting hammered. Drought in the southeast, strong windes here in Kansas, and bad storms in the upper midwest (the recipient of our winds).

Crazy weather.
93E might become Tropical Depression Dean/10E.
Wave

Nice looking wave
Don't see any activity. Why don't we all take a break for the weekend and take a deep breath? See you Monday. Nothing is happening for at least a week. Then we will be in for more activity.
Thanks StormW. I see what you are talking about.
Surfed what will probably be the last pulses of ground swell from Dean. The last three days of groundswell waves for the FL west coast surfers was probably one of the only good things Dean created. The swell was visible on the horizon line when we started at 7:00am and by 11:30am it was just flat as far as one could see. Can't explain the feeling one has when you are first greeted by storm swell and then to see the last of the storm slowly pulse away - Each hurricane waves have their own personality, angle, power --the aspects of Dean we don't experience when we just look at graphs, photos, etc. Feeling the wave created from a hurricane is a real unique and wonderful interaction between weather, the ocean ...raw nature. The dolphins also came out today and skipped some waves right next to us before they went back to eating. The Gulf was glorious, still 89 degrees, gorgeous water depth visibility, the rip tides were gone and peace had once again returned.
I AM soooooooooooooo BORED after Dean. I even had to go look @ the pic of the tornadoes in Chicago to get my fix.
Here is what the CPC says regarding activity over the next two weeks:





Notice that the Atlantic is the only basin in the world that has any mention of tropical cyclone potential, and in the second week the only area with anything at all.
TAKE A BREAK EVERYONE....
I'VE EXAMINED ALL MODELS AND RESOURCES AND I HAVE TO ADMIT I SEE NOTHING TANGIBLE OVER THE NEXT 7+ DAYS TO MULL OVER.
ANYONE KNOW IF CAUSE IS WIND SHEAR, SAL, PERSISTENT HP OVER ATLANTIC, SST OVERTURNING BY DEAN, FORMATION TOO CLOSE TO EQUATOR, OR ARE THE MODELS JUST NOT GOOD ENOUGH YET TO PICK UP ON A SLIGHT MSLP DROP OVER WESTERN AFRICA THAT WILL BECOME A 900mb VACUUM IN 8 DAYS OR SO?
COMMENTS?
Tropics Update

A tropical wave roughly along 81-82W south of 25N moving west near 15 knots. Sea breeze and daytime heating convection over the Yucantan Penunsula, Cuba and Hispniola is being enhanced by the tropical wave as it interacts with a weakening upper low entering the Gulf of Mexico. Scattred showers are also over the Caribbean waters north of 15N west of 78W. Little surface spin is assoicated with this feature and remains an open wave.

Another interesting area is a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa which has a possible low level circulation and very deep convection tonight. However, this is the daily maximum for land and could be attributed to the heating of the day and it will have to survive the oceanic enviroment (if it reaches there healthy) for at least 24 hrs. Neverthless, this is a very intersting feature and I will have more updates tonight and tommorrow.

by W456



An open Arctic is what is required for a super storm like it's being shown with the 'Day After Tomorrow', and here on Jeff Master's blog during Dean that was the story behind the storm--the Arctic having record melting. That's what I want to discuss on our podshow tonight--the Methane Mike Show.

I think I have all the glitches out of our new podcast show and tonight we're going to have a 'guest' in my office who is a 'skeptic'. And
this is the topic we are going to hit--tropical storms and climate change.

To Call Into Show Toll Free it's (888) 742-0057 and the skype number, also toll free, is (530) 554-4513 and you can email at if you have a comment:

narodaleahcim@aol.com

Show starts at, I should say roughly starts at the way I am learning to do this, at 7 pm. For you right coasters that's 10 pm which is
why you have to be both a late night own and a climate change nut to want to call in. I must say I am both which is why Hawai'i could
call and I would be UP!

Course I am a radical, crazy if you will, about electrics and what the open Arctic means for more hurricanes like Dean. But this is
what I want to talk about. The AO or Atlantic Oscillation. If you were to debate Dr. William Gray himself, he has said that the Arctic
was warmer in the 30s and that's what we are seeing is just a cycle. OTOH, there is a warmer who takes another view, Janet Curry, who
called Dr. Gray a fossil in a WSJ interview and outside of the scientific debate! Meanwhile, most experts in the tropical storm department have made fun of Curry's tropical storm predictions--like Mike Watkins from the Talking Tropics Show when I was on last year.

It's going to be a great discussion. This link should get you to it:

http://www.todclimate.com/live.htm

Later you can get in on demand from the archives page at
http://www.methanemike.com or at http://www.podclimate.com .

Mike
Posted the wave pic cuz it looked "classic".

Still got way too much shear in the GOM and Carib.

test 123

first post.....can ya see me??
Crazy weather here tonight too. Lots of rain, lightning and thunder and very windy. Hope this blob is not developing into something more ominous.
Posted By: Stingfish at 12:11 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.

test 123

first post.....can ya see me??


Welcome
Posted By: Caymanite at 12:12 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.

Crazy weather here tonight too. Lots of rain, lightning and thunder and very windy. Hope this blob is not developing into something more ominous


If you're in the Caymans, I'm guessing that would be the wave. Probably more of the same tomorrow for ya'll.
My first post too!

This is probably a stupid question, but what exactly does "invest" mean... where does the term come from? Is it just another term for storm? I tried to look it up on various weather term sites, but I can't find a definition. Thanks!
An "Invest" is short for Investigation Area and is labelled such if the area of disturbed weather has the potential to develop. They are labelled numbers 90-99. When 99 is reach they start back over at 90. In the Atlnatic the disturbnace have the suffix "L" added. Example 90L, 91L, 92L, 93L, 94L, 95L, 96L, 97L, 98L, 99L, 90L, 91L, etc.
RubyRed,
Invest as in Investigation would be the simplest definition.
Hope that helps.
Yea boobless, guess the rain will be a blessing as it helps to wash off the salt on the trees that was left by Dean.
Thank you, Weather456!
Thank you, Boobless!
Good thing there aren't any impressive wave in the CATL. SAL is very weak to non existent.
I hate salty trees too. Too salty.
Some folks up north need a rinsing also and would love to wave hello to yours
Posted By: boobless at 11:26 PM GMT on August 23, 2007.
Nice looking wave

Take a look at about 21N, 56W in that picture -- and tell me that doesn't look like a human eye in the midst of the clouds!
sounds sliek its time for canes.
Drak: I don't have a lot of experience with the maps - can you please explain the one you just put up?
I see it DG.
No tears in it though. (that would be tears as in crying-english language/spelling is a bitch)
Posted By: StormW at 12:35 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.

Evening Drak!


Hey StormW!
OK... OK... OK.... I think I got it figured out... GW has altered the weather patterns so much the it has become almost impossible for hurricanes to form. But when they form, they get big - - you know - - like cat 4 or 5. OK folks, waddaya think of that concept??????
Posted By: zoomiami at 12:37 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.

Drak: I don't have a lot of experience with the maps - can you please explain the one you just put up?


That map shows SAL which is represented by the orange-red colors. Weak SAL is represented by the yellow. SAL is a dry air layer that comes of the Africa coast. The dry stable air, prevents deep convection from forming with tropical waves that come of the african coast.
thanks! Is the dry air layer the same as the saharan dust that gets mixed up with the convection?
Posted By: zoomiami at 12:42 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.

thanks! Is the dry air layer the same as the saharan dust that gets mixed up with the convection?


yes.
OK... OK... OK.... I think I got it figured out... GW has altered the weather patterns so much the it has become almost impossible for hurricanes to form. But when they form, they get big - - you know - - like cat 4 or 5. OK folks, waddaya think of that concept??????

I don't know about that, but this year hasn't been very active so far in terms of worldwide activity (indeed, the CPC thinks that the Atlantic is the only basin worth watching for the next two weeks), and it has had quite a few Cat 4-5 storms.
Atlantic is calm. .. .. .. Should be after getting a cat5 at winds of 165mph.Im amazed how Mexico reacted to Dean.They took no chances.Great job!



NxC

Back on Friday, to see if we have a invest.( It is hurricane Season).
Here's my guess for zero activity. We have dry and very unclean air from continental US being whipped out over west Atl from the high over SE US. Then we have still slightly cool SSTs off W Africa that kills the waves that come off over there. Dean didn't have to deal with US air cuz he was too far south. The waves coming off Africa have been relatively weak. 92L surprised me a bit in that it only had convection the one night when in CATL interacting with ULL. After that, US air killed convection even when it had surface circ, warm SSTs, and high HP. The pressure was down to 1009 mbars in CATL but rose to 1014 puny mbars by time it got toward Fla east coast.
248. sammo
Look at how much TCHP has diminished in the Carib after Dean. Is that from churning the water, or from Dean using the heat as fuel?

Link
Hi Caymanite

Lots of T & L here in South Sound tonight

Great for the plants and washing off salt but let's hope thats all it is LOL
Salty Trees???????
Evening All!

Pretty good mid-level rotation coming off Central Cuba, BRING THE RAIN!
In other news an extratropical low has been moving along the coastline of southern Queensland, Australia, giving some record-breaking rainfall totals.


Several sites have reported falls of over 300mm (12in) in just a one hour period and 24 hour totals above 600mm (24in).


Look at the recording from the Australian BOM for Rainbow Beach for the 24hr period 0900 23/08/07 to 0900 24/08/07.
A total of 713.0mm (28.5in).



Rainbow Beach 24hr Total



Too bad less than 50mm (2in) has fallen in the catchment areas, so water restrictions will still apply
Posted By: stormwatcher247 at 1:13 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.

Salty Trees???????


From Hurricane Dean. There was practically no rain with it so the salt spray from the sea coated just about everything, killing the leaves etc. The rain will cleanse the plants and allow new leaves to grow
I just want to say thanks Storm W. You emailed me a couple of websites last night and I appreciate it. I definitely have a lot of reading to do, lol
Boobless - explain the name
261. sammo
boobless - that's a very cool map, never seen that site before, can you post a link?
Posted By: sammo at 1:25 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.

boobless - that's a very cool map, never seen that site before, can you post a link?


Dar ya go sammo.
Ignore the certificate error if you get one.Link
265. V26R
boobless, on your planet?
Exactly which planet are you referring to?
266. sammo
Ah, Navy, I see. Thx boobless.
sammo, here's another fairly hi-res for the GOM.
Alas, SST's not TCHP.




Link
Slightly off topic, we have had a few Manatees show up in Mobile Bay. Not unheard of, but cool just the same.
Where in Mobile Bay Baybuddy?
By the Battleship. It was on the news night before last. They were alongside the ship by the walkways.
Wow! Would love to see a manatee.
So how rare is it that there is not a single storm or even and invest around the world on August 23rd?

By the way, my kids just watched HSMusical 2 for the 4th time tonight.
It was cool. They had some folks from the sea lab who said that sometimes the manatees like to "vacation" here.
281. sammo
Posted By: boobless at 1:45 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.
sammo, here's another fairly hi-res for the GOM.
Alas, SST's not TCHP.


Thx, boobless, always like to add new links to the weather collection...

You know its bad when its Aug 23 and the Canadian model is not showing anything. Everyone in the Atl. can sleep good tonight.
Going to be a slow next week...at least one week, if not more. I cant believe how much the tropics have died down. That cut off low in the middle of the Atlantic seems to be killing any tropical wave.
That cut off low in the middle of the Atlantic seems to be killing any tropical wave.

That is not the problem... it seems to be something wrong with the whole planet; where are all of the supertyphoons that should be in the West Pacific right now (they normally have about 7 storms in August):



1977 all over again if nothing changes soon...

Trivia
The Atlantic season was also below average in activity, as was the typhoon season in the western Pacific. This was due to a worldwide trend that inhibited tropical cyclone development throughout the northern hemisphere, resulting in a record low level of tropical cyclones worldwide.


Interestingly, 1977 also had a Cat 5 hit Mexico.
288. BtnTx
It is Aug 23 and the tropical Wx blog is slow. This a a good thing. Let us be thankful.
Once again, Mexico came out of a major hurricane will no deaths reported.

Unfortunately, that isn't quite true anymore:

At least ten deaths have been reported from Hurricane Dean in Mexico. One person died in Puebla after a wall crashed on him in his house, and five other deaths have been reported in Puebla due to mudslides. and another person in Veracruz was electrocuted after touching a power line while doing roof repairs. In Michoacan, a man was struck by lightning under a tree in the outer bands of the storm, and two people died in Hidalgo when the roof collapsed in their house.
Well, a cut off low in the mid atlantic usually corresponds with a low off the eastern japan coast. That might explain why both would go slow at the same time.
Posted By: BtnTx at 2:35 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.

It is Aug 23 and the tropical Wx blog is slow. This a a good thing. Let us be thankful.


AMEN
very quiet out there
So, let me get this straight...what I think you all are telling me is the 2007 is going to be a slow hurricane season? Is that what the general consensus is now?
I still think it will be active...just not the next week and a half. It will pick up again mid September.
Update on the monster hail that fell in South Dakota the other day:

A hailstone measuring approximately 7.00 inches in diameter, with a circumference of 18.00 inches and a weight of 1.0 pound was documented in Dante on Thursday. The NWS will be working with the South Dakota State Climatologist to confirm this hailstone as a new state record. The current South Dakota hailstone record is 6.00 inches in Custer County on June 22 1968. Records for hail in South Dakota date back to 1950.

Another very large hailstone was also documented in Dante on Thursday. This hailstone measured 6 and 1/8 inches in diameter, with a circumference of 15.5 inches, and weighed 1.25 pounds.
300. BtnTx
The hurricane season is not over until the fat lady sings and she won't sing until Nov. Most damage I ever received from a hurricane was a Cat 1 that hit us on Oct. 15 in the 90's (Hurricane Jerry)...
Conditions really havent changed much, only the waves are not rolling off Africa right now. We still have near normal SST and less than normal shear. Once the cut off low in the mid-atlantic moves on, we should see the waves coming off the coast again leading to more development.
MichaelSTL, How does a "worldwide trend" inhibit TS development?
303. DDR
good night all whats a cut off low? and how does it affect tropical waves?
Any word on when the high pressure area sitting over the southeast will finally move on? We broke all kinds of records in South Alabama today...........
Posted By: DDR at 3:01 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.

good night all whats a cut off low? and how does it affect tropical waves?


Fill your bathtub w/water.
Stick your hand in about 6"
Make a quick U shaped motion.
This would represent a trough of low pressure.
If you're lucky, you may get a little spin of water to fling out near the bottom right of the U. The rest of the U shaped moving water keeps going.

The little counter-clockwise spin is now on its own and "cutoff" from the feature that created it.

The atmosphere is fluid-like and behaves much the same way.

Hurricanes like to spin this way also (CCW) and it may aid in formation if it can get a circulation going all the way down to the bottom of the ah..bathtub/sea surface.

The cutoff low can also provide currents of air that could steer, enhance, inhibit a storm.

Just depends on the setup.

Hope this crude example helps. Since you got a tub full of water now, please wash the dog
]
Well, if it's any consolation it *seemed* cooler this evening over here in NOLA. Not stifling like the previous 4 days...
Posted By: Baybuddy at 9:49 PM EDT on August 23, 2007.

Slightly off topic, we have had a few Manatees show up in Mobile Bay. Not unheard of, but cool just the same.


Interesting, this. Just read something today which talked about manatees and stingrays ending up near Louisiana beaches after the passage of Gulf hurricanes. Maybe those manatees got lost courtesy of Dean . . .

Moved this post 2 a more relevant spot.
just wait till sept
and october
and november
At this time of the year, this is very unusual:



Even the Pacific is entirely devoid of tropical cyclones, forecast or current (the thing by Australia is extratropical).
according to current trends nuttin happening for the next 10 to 14 days
That extratropical low off Australia has dropped more than 3 feet of rain on the region north of Brisbane over the last 3 days.
G'nite all.

See u guys in the a. m. Well, in the later a. m. . . . . .
labour day is coming thats been known for some powerful storms to show up cant give up till nov lots of time left and the activiy has come in impulses this year u get a few waves then it goes quiet then a few more then quiet very odd nuttin happenen across the entire globe right now
wow even the blog is devoid of any activity
321. KRL
Logically, I think its safe to assume, in light of the extraordinary amount of "way off the norm" weather events that have been happening worldwide recently, that you can't expect hurricane season to occur based on historical patterns and forecast data as much as it has in the past.

I can't remember any time when we've seen so many weather records being broken. All these extremes must be evidence of a highly profound change in the atmosphere and overall climatology of Earth.

The safe bet is to expect the unexpected because that seems to be the course we're on now.

My personal opinion is a lot of these weather changes are due to the impending reversal of Earth's magnetic poles. Before this happens the Earth's magnetic field starts to weaken and flux. The last magnetic flip occured 740,000 years ago. The sun reverses its poles every 11 years like clockwork, with the last being around Feb 2001. The flip occurs on the Sun at the max solar energy point.

I think we are already in the Earth's preflip time frame state now. With a weaker magnetic field, more solar energy penetrates into the atmosphere and since solar energy is the primary driver of the Earth's weather stability and instability along with the Earth's inner core conditions, that's one of the main reasons weather has become so chaotically different.
And if your theory is correct, how long would it take for the pole switch to occur on Earth?
93E or Ex-Dean as NHC is calling it has flared up a wee-bit in the Gulf of California. The SSTs are > 30C right near the coast, so plenty of fuel for this small system to fire convection.

NHC FLOATER EAST PAC
324. KRL
CNN reporting Illinois and Chicago area had over 48,000 lightning strikes recorded in one hour.

There's two small areas of low pressure off the eastern seaboard.

None of these lows should develop as one is already moving ashore central Florida and the other is devoid of any convection off the Delmarva.
Just when you thought it was going to ramp up..Poof it is really quiet in the atlantic no sign of ANYTHING!
KRL, How on earth does a flip in the earths magnetic field allow more solar energy through the atmosphere? More likely that all these weather extremes are due to galloping GW - as all the climate scientists have been predicting for a number of years.
Posted By: G35Wayne at 5:59 AM EDT on August 24, 2007.

Just when you thought it was going to ramp up..Poof it is really quiet in the atlantic no sign of ANYTHING!


Erie , Like the calm before the storm!!
I am not about to get into a GW debate but to just answer Funeeg question...

if the magnetic poles of Earth are fliping (which has happened in the past) the magnetic field that protects the Earth from the solar wind weakens thus allowing more of the solar energy to reach the ionosphere thus heating it up. This heat has to travel somewhere, usually working its way down into the stratosphere (the area that has weather) thus allowing more energy to be present in the atmosphere to drive weather.

Remeber the weather is the balancing system for the world. With more energy available more energy needs to be balanced thus more extremes, ie stronger more powerful storms.

As a question was reaised early on how fast the flip happens. According to scientists the flip can happen in as little as a year to as long as a decade. being the last time it happened was more than 700,000 years ago noone really knows. They use geological evidence in naturally occuring magnetic minerals thus there is a window they are looking at.

Now if you would like to continue this discussion I would be more than happy to on my own blog or one of yours. Not here in the Tropical Blog.
330. IKE
The 0Z NOGAPS...the 0Z CMC and the 06Z GFS(to a lesser degree), show some development in the SW Caribbean sea in the next 6 days.

Here's the 0Z NOGAPS...Link

Here's the 0Z CMC...Link
331. KRL
Posted By: funeeeg at 10:10 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.
KRL, How on earth does a flip in the earths magnetic field allow more solar energy through the atmosphere? More likely that all these weather extremes are due to galloping GW - as all the climate scientists have been predicting for a number of years.


Before the Earth's poles reverse the magnetic field weakens and goes into a flux state.

You can read an in depth article about it's impact on weather and other things in this New York Times article.

New York Times Research Article Link


Here's an animation done by Gary Glatzmaier, Los Alamos National Labs and Paul Roberts, UCLA. This was created on a Cray C-90 supercomputer.

Earth Magnetic Field Reversal Animation Link

flip

Large image of Earth's Magnetoshpere on this link:

Magnetosphere Link
The tropics are great looking right now! People should be breathing easy and enjoying this break of activity.
Wow, just checked the satellite and not only are there no "blobs" to watch, there is barely a cloud out there.

Let's see what happens with this next blob coming off Africa. Will it also go poof...
KRL good articles thanks for the links I gave it a +
Logically, I think its safe to assume, in light of the extraordinary amount of "way off the norm" weather events that have been happening worldwide recently, that you can't expect hurricane season to occur based on historical patterns and forecast data as much as it has in the past

Thanks KRL, guess I'll just have to stick to my hobby of learning from you guys through dumb questions. Finance people can only make sound posts when we know what we're talking about...(i.e. statistics) Curses! hehe.
337. LLJ
That 1013mb low is still sitting off the Florida east coast. Radar shows the turning:
Link


NWS, Melbourne discussion:
Link
WOW! Just heard that the violent thunderstorms that rocked Chicago yesterday caused a Seiche in Lake Michagan. Simply amazing.
339. LLJ
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
155 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...MINOR SEICHE AFFECTS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...

A MINOR SEICHE WAS OBSERVED ON SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. A SEICHE CAN BEST BE EXPLAINED AS A LARGE SLOSH ON A
LAKE...WHERE WATER FROM ONE SIDE OF THE LAKE IS FORCED OR PUSHED
TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LAKE THEN RETURNS TO THE OTHER SIDE OF
THE LAKE RESULTING IN A RISE IN THE WATER LEVELS. THIS OSCILLATION
OF LAKE WATER LEVELS WILL OFTEN CONTINUE WITH PEAKS AND LOWS IN
WATER LEVELS FOR SOME TIME BEFORE THE LAKE STABILIZES AGAIN.

MOST COMMONLY SEICHES ON LAKE MICHIGAN OCCUR AS A RESULT OF A
FAST MOVING LINE OF HIGH WIND PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS
WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING. AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RACED
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING PRODUCING WINDS OF 40
TO 60 MPH IT CAUSED WATER TO PILE UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LAKE...FOLLOWED BY THE SLOSH BACK TO THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
Small spin in NE GOM this morn. Nothing at the surface based on buoys. Shows up (barely) at 300mb on GFS and RUC.

Upper level feature only?
341. LLJ
Upper level. WV Loop.
SST's are near normal, shear is near normal but ULL's are preventing anything from developing. However I still think Felix will form before August is over. There is a monster wave just about to exit Africa. It will be interesting to see if it can hold together once it gets in the Atlantic as easterly shear is a little high out there.
Mornin' All...

Cooling of at all over there, Ike?
I think the season may run a a little late
We had a late winter, a late spring, and summer just starting kicking in july. yea maybe a late season. Could see a couple of late storms.
347. LLJ
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DIPS
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N FROM 48W-70W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM A 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 32N48W SW ALONG 29N57W THEN NW TO 30N61W BECOMING
STATIONARY CONTINUING ACROSS BERMUDA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
FRONT E OF 52W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
What is that spinning in the Gulf, a ULL





Yea I was cutting grass upto the end of july, I usually have to hire someone by then, I can
not cut it in the heat. I just hired someone
this August.
and it rained to whole month of june and july here. we had planted a spring garden, my tomatoes drowned
No doubt, putin, with all the indicators swinging positive. I think we can expect this fall to give us more than some good football...
jp I checked the CPE site and they only call for a cold core Low from that front. #70 on the CMC, #84 on the GFS

Thats about it for that one. I did notice the Carib Low show up on the 3 on that site also they do show it as warm core but shallow.
355. LLJ
well if we cant trust them too much with development, then we shouldnt trust them too much when they dont call for development


I can agree with that JP.
They're just computer models. From run to run we all know how fast things can swing the other direction.
JP -

Models are good at highlighting features, but I don't think that any have demonstrated much accuracy at cyclogenesis this year. CMC spins up anything, GFS wants to forecast calm waters and all the others in between.

CMC has picked up on several "features" that it computed to become storms, but they simply didn't develop as it forecasted. GFS, on the other hand has refused to initialize almost anything until after it's apparent.

So, maybe there will be something in the SW/NW Caribbean, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it turned out to be nothing...
now, don't anyone think I am wish casting, because I really don't want hrricanes, I am not actually in a area to make such wishes.
although I am a little bored with the season.
I do like tracking them.
Morning y'all, I see it is nice an quite out there!

jp, the phase evolution page, along with most of the other model pages can be found here.
Good Morning...As for the tropics...errr...well quiet....But, nice and clear and relatively cool this morning in the Big Bend of Florida...
Link

CPE site Jp
Good morning everyone.

Do you all know today is the 15th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew hitting South Florida?

That is the storm that woke us all up after so many years of nothing.
jp can you link the 35 model run? I cant find it.
yep, seflagamma and then two days later it paid us a visit.
No problem jp, and morning to ya ☺

Morning gamma, yep we got woke up three years prior to that. Hugo. My dad went down and helped the administrators in the area down in Homestead after Andrew. I think he stayed down there three to four weeks. He was a city admin up here during Hugo so he had been through the routine. Said it was some of the worst damage he had seen. Pretty sobering when comparing it to what Hugo did which was no cake walk.
Good morning all. Today marks the 15th anniversary of when Hurricane Andrew struck Homestead.
tang,
you in LA? I know it went into gulf and hit Louisanna a couple of days later. Wasn't it a 2 or 3 when it hit your area?

none of us have any idea what happened after it went thru out area because we had no power or tv and was cut off from rest of the world!
and I really didn't have any damage because I was in Broward. but we didn't have power.
good morning everyone...so the tropics are feeling a little toooo quiet for this time of year....maybe the calm before the storm...kind a scary
sj,
yes, I watched Hugo on TV as much as possible.. heck I've been watching these storms on TV for 28 years. So glad now we have this site so we don't have to depend on TV for coverage and information like the "old" days LOL!

I have some family in that area that were affected by Hugo.
Wondering, if we might be seeing the beginning of the more "quiet" cycle in the tropical Atlantic that they say alternates (between active and quiet) about every 20 years or so...Of course, this thought goes out the window if this season, and the next few ramp up again........Perhaps too soon to tell...
Yeah JP.....What I've learned from participating in this Blob for the last two years is that in spite of the science and theories of it all, the tropics can be very unpredictable in any given season...
So theoretically, with what I beleive to be mild La Nina conditions at present, we should see an active late season this year?
Today's Tropical Summary

A surface ridge covers most north of 20N from 20W to Texas. The high is being disrupted by an non tropical low near 39N/41W. The flow around this high is light to moderate with the strongest flow near in the Southwest Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche. This is due to a tighter pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian Low and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche.

In the upper layer, A large ridge has its axis extending from Nova Scotia along the US East Coast, into the Gulf and ending over Mexico. It incorporates the area from 130W to 60W. Meanwhile, a weakening upper low in the Eastern Gulf and the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) is just to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.

Significant shower activity is confine to over the Tehuantepec Peninsula associated with a broad area of low pressure and the remnants of Dean. Showers are also over NW Colombia/East Panama associated with the Colombian Low. Widely Scattered showers over Cuba, The Bahamas, South Fl and adjacent waters associated with a tropical wave interacting with the weakening upper level low over the Gulf. Lastly, significant showers and thunderstorms over the West African Mainland. Associated with possible tropical waves or west African cyclones. More updates on this area.

Water vapour imagery show relatively dry air over the Tropical Atlantic thereby deep convection remains absent. Even the ITCZ have calm down a bit.

by W456
Posted By: LLJ at 11:34 AM GMT on August 24, 2007.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
155 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...MINOR SEICHE AFFECTS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...


Never heard of such a thing before. Thanks LLJ and Bonedog for posting about it. Learn something new everyday.
yes Seflgamma, Andrew was a cat 3 when it came through here. the eye hit just 55 mile west of me. I had not been through a hurricane since Betsy, it was so scary.
We faired pretty well. The low lying bayou area to the east received a hugh surge. I remember when we saw the Pictures on TV about the damage to Homestead. It was just unbelievable. and oh lord just the though of it, an evacuation was never called for this area. they really didn't start pushing evacuatons until Katrina. We stayed in a little upstairs apartment. The walls we breathing. I didn't think the front door was gonna hold. Yep it was scary.
Thanks JP; we will see...
It was awful yesterday here in Chicago.
Another sotrm will hit Chicago later today.
hello ev'ry 1! It looks like almost "nothing" is in the tropics... sigh.
But cheer up... 93E is still 'ere. it has 30mph winds and pressure of 1004 mb.
Hello all. I was just wondering do you all think it will stay this quite for the rest of the Hurricane Season? I don't think it's been this quite in the middle of August in along time other than last year. Or I may be wrong. Just wondering.
Sheri
I'm new at this but..Is there any reason why the tropics are so quite?
390. LLJ
New blog.
ice is melting. we are screwed man. screwed. dammit.
Anyone:

Looks like convection building in area of 9N/48w. This mean anything?
what about torino hurricane?