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The 6 lost Hurricane Hunter missions, Part IV: Hurricane Janet, 1955

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:07 PM GMT on July 10, 2009

The only Atlantic Hurricane Hunter flight to go down occurred on September 26, 1955. Snowcloud Five, a U.S. Navy P2V Neptune weather reconnaissance airplane flying out of Guantanamo, Cuba, was lost in Hurricane Janet, 300 miles southwest of Jamaica. Snowcloud Five was part of the Airborne Early Warning Squadron Four (VW-4), based at the Jacksonville, Florida Naval Air Station. Carrying a crew of nine and two reporters from the Toronto Daily Star, Snowcloud Five took off at 0630 local time, and performed its initial penetration into Janet at an altitude of 700 feet. At the time of the crash, Janet was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The aircraft sent back this transmission, then was never heard from again:

NAVY RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT 5U93, OBSERVATION NUMBER FIVE, AT 1330 GMT (8:30AM EST), MONDAY, LOCATED AT LATITUDE 15.4 DEGREES N, LONGITUDE 78.2 DEGREES W. OBLIQUE AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY 3-10 MILES, ALTITUDE 700 FEET, FLIGHT WIND 050 DEGREES (NE) 45 KNOTS (52 MPH). PRESENT WEATHER LIGHT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS, PAST WEATHER SAME, OVERCAST AND SOME SCUD BELOW, SURFACE PRESSURE 1,003 MILLIBARS (29.62 INCHES), SURFACE WINDS 050 DEGREES (NE), 45 KNOTS (52 MPH). BEGINNING PENETRATION.


Figure 1. Snowcloud Five, the U.S. Navy P2V Neptune weather reconnaissance airplane that went down in Hurricane Janet of 1955. Image credit: navyhurricanehunters.com

An intensive air and sea search operation combed a 300 by 200 mile region of the Caribbean for the airplane over the next five days. In all, sixty aircraft, seven ships, and three thousand personnel were involved. No trace of Snowcloud Five was ever found. A book called Stormchasers (David Toomey, 2002) provides a detailed story of the flight into Hurricane Janet and offers some insight as to what may have gone wrong. Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, speculated on the fate of Snowcloud Five in a review of Stormchasers that appeared in the February, 2003 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: "The enlisted aerographer's mate was left behind that day in order to accommodate the Toronto Daily Star reporter. This key crew member was normally responsible for keeping the pilots aware of altitude by calling out readings from the only radar altimeter on board, located at the aerologist's station. Without him, the aerologist, Lt. (jg) William Buck, had to do two demanding jobs: He had to simultaneously read the bouncing, flickering altimeter and peer down from his Plexiglas bubble in the nose to discern the wind from streaks of foam on the sea. It is easy to imagine how he might have lost control of the situation as he struggled to keep the airplane safely above the waves and flying perpendicular to the wind towards the eye."

The crew members lost on the mission were:

Lt. Cmdr. Grover B. Windham Jr. of Jacksonville, FL, Plane Commander
LTjg Thomas R. Morgan of Orange Park, FL, Navigator
LTjg George W. Herlong of Yukon, FL, Co-Pilot
Aviation Electronics Technician Second Class Julius J. Mann, 22, of Canton, Ohio
LTjg Thomas L. Greaney, 26, of Jacksonville, FL, Navigator
Aviation Mechanic First Class J. P. Windham, Jr., 32 of Jacksonville, FL
Airman Kenneth L. Klegg, 22, of Cranston, RI
Aviation Electronics Man First Class Joseph F. Combs of Forest Park, NY
Aerologist William A. Buck, of Jacksonville, FL
Toronto Daily Star Reporter Alfred O. Tate
Toronto Daily Star Photographer Douglas Cronk

Robert Ballard, or other experts in finding sunken ships--I challenge you to find the wreckage of Snowcloud Five, and help bring to light the final fate of the only Atlantic Hurricane Hunter plane to go down in the line of duty!


Figure 2. Damage to the town of Corozal, Belize, after Hurricane Janet in 1955. Janet intensified to a Category 5 hurricane the day after Snowcloud Five went down, and hit the Yucatan Peninsula near the Belize/Mexico border with 175 mph winds, killing more than 500 people. Image credit: corozal.com.

Sources: The book, Stormchasers (David Toomey, 2002) provides a detailed story of the flight into Hurricane Janet, and is a good read. Other sources: The Florida Times-Union Jacksonville, Wednesday, September 28, 1955: "Navy Plane Missing With 11 Local Men".

Previous posts in this series:
October 1, 1945 typhoon
Typhoon Wilma, 1952
Typhoon Doris, 1953

The tropics remain quiet, with no threat areas and no models forecasting Atlantic tropical development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting StormW:
1485. JRRP 1:09 AM EDT on July 13, 2009
Quoting StormW:


What are we looking at?


Quoting hunkerdown:
IF there were any truth to that, don't you think the ridge would be pushing "it" more of a W/WNW instead of what almost appears to be NW ?

Link


I'll have to take a look at the 12Z run of the steering forecast maps, but that projected path looks too much to the NW at the time being...based on the 00Z steering maps.


Hmmm, so it might actually end up moving much more further westard then the latest installation of the GFS model is actually currently depicting that it might, StormW?
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Hmmm, so it might actually end up moving much more further westard then the latest installation of the GFS model is actually currently depicting that it might, StormW?
I think the bigger issue at this time is will there be anything there to actually be tracked.
Quoting hunkerdown:
I think the bigger issue at this time is will there be anything there to actually be tracked.


Perhaps, who knows. But if something were to develop, I'll be very interested to see which potential track it might decide to take. :)
Quoting presslord:
I just hope everyone gets I'm just bein' silly...in a Charleston snobby kinda way...


I REALLY meant waves for the NC coast. Just included SC because that's what we un-snobby NCarolinans do. Surfers know that SC doesn't get waves anyway!!! HAHAHAH!!
1506. Dar9895
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Before:



After:


It's stay the same.
THE WEAKENING OF CARLOS OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS INDEED
BEEN PUZZLING...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. CARLOS HAS WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND IS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION...YET THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED 30 KT SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF OUR LACK OF
UNDERSTANDING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE.

About says it all really... much more to learn from these natural phenomenon.
The area southwest of the cape verde lies within the mosnoon trough which should be confused with the ITCZ. the former is more cyclonic and favors cyclogenesis and the latter is more confluent.

This is what is being observed within the EATL






UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2009 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 10:11:59 N Lon : 124:05:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1000.6mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.2 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 4.2mb

Center Temp : -60.2C Cloud Region Temp : -40.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

****************************************************

good morn 456
Just one reading that's jumped Carlos back into the #3's... be curious if that's just an anomaly (more likely as the RawT# jumps all over the place) or the start of a new trend.
good morning everyone live championship surfing from s africa jeffreeys bay the waves were created in the roaring 40s i believe. hap[y weather http://www.billabongpro.com/jbay09/live.php
Good Morning KOTG and everyone else;

Tropical Update: Watching the Eastern Atlantic
climatology is against development in the central atlantic in fact most of the dots on the development map near the windwards dont occur until the last wk of july.


(From yesterday)

Teensy bit of green out in the EAtl... but pretty barren from this oscillation until August.

Which isn't such a good thing.
Climatology is a very useful but limited tool. Recent examples is where Felix 2007 developed and intensified and Hurricane Bertha last year.
As well as the TD earlier this year... being the most northern in May recorded so far.

Records and trends are there to be altered and broken...
over the last couple of years we have been seeing things go against the norm and have dev were none is expected and have no dev were its been expected so i have pretty much come to expect the unexpected for the 09 season
Good Morning. hmm the area at 35W still looks good and has gained some lattitude since last night...
here is some strange news from northern tip of baffin island in the artic circle

WOCN16 CWNT 130011
Special weather statement
For the Qikiqtaaluk area of Nunavut issued by Environment Canada at
8:11 PM EDT Sunday 12 July 2009.

Special weather statement issued for..
Pond Inlet.

..All time maximum temperature recorded at Pond Inlet Nunavut..

It was a record breaking warm day on the northern tip of Baffin
Island today as the mercury climbed to a high of 22.3c at pond
Inlet. This makes it the warmest day on record at the community
Since records began in October 1975. The previous record maximum
temperature was 22.0c set on July 11 1991. Normal highs for this
Time of year are 8c.

20 degree days are rare at Pond Inlet with only 5 such readings in
The past 35 years...All in July. An earlier weather station at Pond
Inlet recorded only one 20 degree reading between 1923 and 1960.

Temperatures will not be quite as warm Monday but it will
Still be above normal with high temperatures near 17c.

End

Quoting CaribBoy:
Good Morning. hmm the area at 35W still looks good and has gained sone lattitude since last night...


Think that's mostly just convection from the ITCZ.

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N24W 8N37W 8N47W 6N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N E OF 26W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
27W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
38W-43W.
This is from the lattest Puerto Rico NWS discussion...

"LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE BRING CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 24/25 WEST"

it is more than just ITCZ convection. there is both convergence and divergence over the system. there also appears to be some cyclonic turning which could be mid level at this stage.the area moving north of west, which will enaable to gain latitude the next couple of days. nothing imminent ,but something to watch
I know one poster talked about the SST overlay being incorrect for the SSD image.

There is a cool spot indicated on the anomaly SST map, though very small.. as on the overlay. As Carlos seems to be getting at least a bit more stronger convection around the centre... maybe not incorrect after all.

Guess we'll see if it picks up. Don't know if that's the only explanation for its apparent destabilisation.

ADT says CDO again and not just a curved structure... rapid dissipation flag has gone on it too... I'm almost pulling for the guy now!

A surge of southwesterlies will probably lift this area north since it has been amplifying northward over the past 12 hrs or so. Will it initiate cyclogensis, like it does in the EPAC and WPAC, is to be determined.


Fairly convective EATL/CATL. 6Z GFS still wants to spin something there, then heading it WNW
noticed the long range wave models have picked up a long period swell moving west just north of the antilles
1528. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

After reading the NHC comments about Carlos, I don't fell all that sheepish not being about to figure out what was holding him back...humbled, yes, sheepish, no.

As for that CHIPS model, no decision, though it was a bit more bullish on intensification than some of the other models.
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


How did your car wash go? Mine got soaked by Mother Nature :(
Dr.Masters,
Any thoughts on Carlos for the new blog why he did not strengthen?
I'm still thinking it might of been the SSTs for Carlos... but it can't be just that.

Upwelling is determined by speed of motion, speed of winds and most importantly dept of SSTs

Carlos may have not had much deep waters to play with. Rainband dissolution may have also weakened Carlos. If Carlos' outer canopy touched cooler waters that could decoupled the the secondary circulation and becuz it was so small, likely had an effect on the primary circulation. As you may know, a hurricane has two circulations of rising and sinking air at its center and within its outer-structure.

Normally, an ocean temperature of 26.5C (79.7F) spanning through at least a 50-metre depth is considered the minimum to maintain the special mesocyclone that is the tropical cyclone.



Regardless.. we may have storm 'D' for the East Pacific soon.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131139
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1285 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Morning all. Now this analysis map is beginning to look a bit more like summertime.... though there are more shortwaves than normal to me.

Good Morning Folks......Looks like another quiet week in the Gulf and Caribbean and Sheer has gone back up a bit in the Gulf, Carribean, and off the US East Coast. Don't see anything happening in the short term, so, enjoy the quiet week and keep an eye on the unreliable long term models I guess....Could be a long wait.
1538. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:

How did your car wash go? Mine got soaked by Mother Nature :(


Got it washed...cleaned my windows....vacuumed it out...now watch it rain today. 50% chance today....60% tomorrow.

Got a trace only yesterday.
1536. Cotillion 8:12 AM EDT on July 13, 2009
That's looking more interesting every time I see it.
1540. IKE
Long-term discussion from Tallahassee....

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS HAS
DEVIATED A BIT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AFTER TODAY (AND MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES)...BOTH THE 00 UTC
GFS AND PRIOR 12 UTC ECMWF RUN REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A PROLONGED DISTURBED PERIOD RETURNING TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
LATER ON THURSDAY...AS A VERY SHARP TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
CARVES SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
EAST OF THE MS RIVER...WHILE THE HOT AND DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS FURTHER WESTWARD OVER UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
SHARPENING TROF....WHICH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS AN MCS CORRIDOR...
SHOULD KEEP POPS ABOVE CLIMO AND MAX TEMPS BELOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEREFORE...WITH CONFIDENCE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE IN THIS LONG TERM PATTERN...SEE LITTLE REASON NOT TO BUMP
UP DAYTIME POPS TO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE AS CLIMO FOR TLH ALREADY IS
40 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FURTHERMORE...AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE ACTUAL TIME FRAME IN A FEW DAYS...EXPECT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.

1542. IKE
Eastern Atlantic wave is worth watching...most impressive blob I've seen out there this year, so far.
EP 96 2009071312 BEST 0 105N 1075W 25 0 DB
1540. IKE 8:24 AM EDT on July 13, 2009

Only two areas with favorable sheer for potential cyclogenisis closer to home, at the present time, is the Bay of Campeche and the Southern Bahamas; assuming that the forecasted trof makes it all the way down, and, sheer in these areas remained low (big if), then we would have to see if any trof remnants could get their act together closer to home in these potential areas.
We had a rideable wave here on the east coast of Florida yesterday, which was nice to see. It was only in the waist high range, but better that nothing.
central-east atlantic
1547. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1540. IKE 8:24 AM EDT on July 13, 2009

Only two areas with favorable sheer for potential cyclogenisis closer to home, at the present time, is the Bay of Campeche and the Southern Bahamas; assuming that the forecasted trof makes it all the way down, and, sheer in these areas remained low (big if), then we would have to see if any trof remnants could get their act together closer to home in these potential areas.


I see the first trough on satellite now..there's a huge blob in NW Alabama heading toward the panhandle of Florida.
Carlos has now shaken off the ADT weakening flag.. but for how long, I wonder.
1549. IKE
1550. IKE
From the Birmingham,AL long-range discussion....

"LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD
ENHANCE THE THREAT OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON BOTH DAYS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. DRIER CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES ASSUMING THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA."
Interesting wave around 8N/33W
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI
It is raining to beat the band here in Wilmington. 3.2 in. since sunrise and it is still coming down. We have a train of T-storms moving N.E. along the coast!

Quoting MissNadia:
It is raining to beat the band here in Wilmington. 3.2 in. since sunrise and it is still coming down. We have a train of T-storms moving N.E. along the coast!



I saw that when I was looking for AOI, you are surrounded :)
1557. IKE
Quoting MissNadia:
It is raining to beat the band here in Wilmington. 3.2 in. since sunrise and it is still coming down. We have a train of T-storms moving N.E. along the coast!



The trough is moving through. Sounds like what we had here in the Florida panhandle a week ago this morning.
strong wave or cyclone, this weather system will will travel slightly north of west. along the southern periphery of the high, and should be in the vicinity of the central and northern islands by weakend. conditions appear sightly favourable for some form of cyclogenesisas as the system moves westward tne next few days. although there is no model consensus for development of this system it however should be closely monitored
Where is Waldo.....I mean Carlos?

Looks like we have pre-Tropical Depression Five-E east of Carlos, and look how big it is. That is also some impressive convection. I have a feeling this one will get stronger than Carlos ever did.

NHC has upped development chances to >50 %



1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
I also wonder how long it will take for the NHC to mention our area in the EATL. Will they continue to be stubborn and conservative, or will they mention it even though it is not in a climatologically favored area.
456,

Is this a classic set-up (in the EATL) for a storm to form??? Looks like there is a spike in the ITCZ. Nice blog, too. It will be interesting to see what Dr. Masters says.
Hello.............................
WRF model is in semi-consensus with the GFS. It does show coalescence with EATL wave, as the isobars tighten.

Does anybody know how to get a picture of your screen.....and then put it on WU?
That wave in the EATL has a long way to go. Dry air, shear, mid July (Cape Verde season is still a month away) - also the long wave pattern across the CONUS is very progressive (especially along the east coast) and almost resembles a late winter early spring pattern (fronts every 3-4 days, even here in the southeast). If this next wave is to survive, it needs to stay at a very low latitude and get into the Caribbean (if it even makes it that far).
Quoting AllStar17:
Does anybody know how to get a picture of your screen.....and then put it on WU?


If you use firefox

Simply drag the picture to the address bar, and you will receive the image link. Copy the link.

Then go to the WU comment box, click on image. Copy and paste the image URL.
Quoting futuremet:


If you use firefox

Simply drag the picture to the address bar, and you will receive the image link. Copy the link.

Then go to the WU comment box, click on image. Copy and paste the image URL.


Thank You.
Testing

A little more active on this side of the globe.
full basin floater atl.

Futremet...
it did not work :(
Trying again.

Nope....

I wonder why. It is a Google Earth image.
Is it possible we are seeing the atlantic waking up?
Quoting claimsadjuster:
Is it possible we are seeing the atlantic waking up?


Getting more active all across the globe.

WPAC - New TD 6, TD Soudelor

EPAC - Carlos, 96E (pre-TD 5-E)

ATL - EATL wave
96E is pretty well organized.



Probably at TD later today.
Blog is suddenly dead again.
1578. Relix
Atlantic Wave is looking nasty =O
1580. Myakka
Question for one of the many experts on here. In years when we have less rainfall and tropical storms, is it typical for the winters to be more severe? It seems each year for the last 4 years, we have had less rain, and significantly colder winters here south of Tampa, FL.
If showers persist into Tuesday and the area gain latitude, then an invest could be call. Development or not, it is more likely it reach some area of land by weekend.
now they put it up

000
WHXX01 KMIA 131259
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 UTC MON JUL 13 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962009) 20090713 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090713 1200 090714 0000 090714 1200 090715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 107.5W 11.2N 109.5W 12.1N 111.5W 13.0N 113.5W
BAMD 10.5N 107.5W 11.0N 109.0W 11.7N 110.4W 12.5N 112.0W
BAMM 10.5N 107.5W 11.2N 109.2W 11.9N 110.8W 12.7N 112.5W
LBAR 10.5N 107.5W 10.8N 109.7W 11.3N 112.1W 11.8N 114.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090715 1200 090716 1200 090717 1200 090718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 115.5W 16.1N 120.0W 18.0N 125.0W 19.6N 130.1W
BAMD 13.5N 113.9W 15.6N 118.4W 17.6N 123.3W 19.6N 127.9W
BAMM 13.6N 114.4W 15.7N 118.9W 17.8N 123.9W 19.8N 128.7W
LBAR 12.4N 117.5W 14.1N 123.7W 15.5N 129.8W 18.3N 133.1W
SHIP 61KTS 71KTS 63KTS 52KTS
DSHP 61KTS 71KTS 63KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 107.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 104.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 102.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting Myakka:
Question for one of the many experts on here. In years when we have less rainfall and tropical storms, is it typical for the winters to be more severe? It seems each year for the last 4 years, we have had less rain, and significantly colder winters here south of Tampa, FL.


There is some correlation there yes and it has to deal with El Nino. When El Nino is prevelant it helps in most cases to reduce the number of tropical systems in the Atlantic.

At the same time if El Nino is prevelant in the winter, the jet stream sags much further south, allowing many systems to come through the SE during the winter months that normally would stay to the north.
Quoting AllStar17:
Blog is suddenly dead again.

It is usually like this in the mornings, especially Monday mornings, unless something significant is brewing in the ATL.

Many of us blog from work.
Quoting Tazmanian:
now they put it up

000
WHXX01 KMIA 131259
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 UTC MON JUL 13 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962009) 20090713 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090713 1200 090714 0000 090714 1200 090715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 107.5W 11.2N 109.5W 12.1N 111.5W 13.0N 113.5W
BAMD 10.5N 107.5W 11.0N 109.0W 11.7N 110.4W 12.5N 112.0W
BAMM 10.5N 107.5W 11.2N 109.2W 11.9N 110.8W 12.7N 112.5W
LBAR 10.5N 107.5W 10.8N 109.7W 11.3N 112.1W 11.8N 114.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090715 1200 090716 1200 090717 1200 090718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 115.5W 16.1N 120.0W 18.0N 125.0W 19.6N 130.1W
BAMD 13.5N 113.9W 15.6N 118.4W 17.6N 123.3W 19.6N 127.9W
BAMM 13.6N 114.4W 15.7N 118.9W 17.8N 123.9W 19.8N 128.7W
LBAR 12.4N 117.5W 14.1N 123.7W 15.5N 129.8W 18.3N 133.1W
SHIP 61KTS 71KTS 63KTS 52KTS
DSHP 61KTS 71KTS 63KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 107.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 104.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 102.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Yeah Taz,

I wondered why they waited so long. This thing is now almost a Tropical Depression, and I think it could be classified at 5 tonight.
the next name storm for the E Pac would be the D storm
Quoting Tazmanian:
the next name storm for the E Pac would be the D storm


Dolores
1589. Myakka
Ok, So El Nino is good for lowering ATL activity, but bad for freezing tropical plants in central florida :) Thank you.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


There is some correlation there yes and it has to deal with El Nino. When El Nino is prevelant it helps in most cases to reduce the number of tropical systems in the Atlantic.

At the same time if El Nino is prevelant in the winter, the jet stream sags much further south, allowing many systems to come through the SE during the winter months that normally would stay to the north.
first the east pacific, then it caught on to west pacific, you know whats next. o.o
morning StormW

What do you think about the area in the Central Atlantic?
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Good morning, StormW. What are your thoughts about possible development in the EATL/CATL? Some people on this blog have said whatever develops will not recurve, but I would like your opinion. TIA.
diggin troughs all summer for florida. million dollar question will it be here in a couple wks when the season should heat up?
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
first the east pacific, then it caught on to west pacific, you know whats next. o.o



not all ways
sorry dump ? are we in summer yet and how long have we been in summer
Definatly watch that area off the CV, it has potential seeing as the GFS has been consistant with it for a week.
Morning All! Looks like the GFS model isn't so quacky afterall! Its always been the more reliable model for long range forecasting!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning All! Looks like the GFS model isn't so quacky afterall! Its always been the more reliable model for long range forecasting!


Let's wait for something to actually get going before we say the GFS was right
here is where we stan so far on 90E and 90L



been keeping track


1st is 90Ls

round 1


90L bust

91L be comes TD 1

92L bust

93L bust

94L bust


now heres 90Es




round 1


90E bust

91E bust

92E be comes TD 1E


93E be comes ANDRES

94E be comes BLANCA

95E be comes CARLOS

96E ???


Good morning, looks like the shuttle landing may have a good chance of being scrubbed again today.
510 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SLOW MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 SOUTH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL REMAIN DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BLINDING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SEEK STURDY SHELTER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THREATENING WEATHER. DEADLY LIGHTNING FREQUENTLY STRIKES BEFORE THE ONSET OF RAINFALL DURING APPROACHING STORMS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING A QUICK TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...WEST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE...METRO ORLANDO AND DAYTONA BEACH. NUISANCE STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL PRESENT A DRIVING HAZARD.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND INLAND LAKES TODAY...AND THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND OFFSHORE INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS...ALONG WITH DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS TODAY. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING STORMS.
Quoting Tazmanian:
here is where we stan so far on 90E and 90L



been keeping track


1st is 90Ls

round 1


90L bust

91L be comes TD 1

92L bust

93L bust

94L bust


now heres 90Es




round 1


90E bust

91E bust

92E be comes TD 1E


93E be comes ANDRES

94E be comes BLANCA

95E be comes CARLOS

96E ???




I would be willing to put 96E as DOLORES
Poor Texas!
Still dry...
Link
I'd put a ??? around 90L and 92L Taz.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'd put a ??? around 90L and 92L Taz.



90L was by far the 1st name storm but i will wait in tell the nhc says so 92L was not the water where too cold even for a STS
Quoting AllStar17:


I would be willing to put 96E as DOLORES



do we have it yet
How do I post an image I made on the blog?
Quoting Tazmanian:



do we have it yet


No, but I would be willing to say it will become a TS, maybe even a hurricane.
Quoting AllStar17:
How do I post an image I made on the blog?



this hit Image
wow carlos looks bad this am
Umbridge is next!
96E is huge!!!!! Will be a very large system when it develops.



Clearly rotation in the clouds.

Invest 96E Visible Loop


There is not a lot of shear or SAL out there right now, I don't think...
East Atlantic Shortwave
Doc Masters said he'd have another blog "monday" so we'll see what he has to say about it.
impressive
Quoting btwntx08:
wow carlos looks bad this am


It still has an eyelike feature.........
i think the central atlantic wave looks as impressive as the EPAC wave.I would not be surprised to see some slow development.
that wave dos has a ch of 95L
Quoting CyberStorm:
impressive


Looks like that type of set-up that will spawn a storm. What are shear forecasts like in the long-term when this thing could be near land areas in the Caribbean/Northern Antilles?
Looks like it is actually lifting north.
moving north most likely a little bit of shear from the south
Carlos looking absolutely terrible this AM

.
good morning!

blog is a little slow today...

Looks like we may have something interesting brewing in the CATL
is this blog broke?
I think Carlos ran into the pile of trash the size of Texas that floats around the Pacific ocean. It slowed the natural steam engine development because the water is covered solid with trash. Kind of like the premise of hurricane control via use of oil slicks but more effective. Hmmm...

HJ
We get storms here in sweden as well but not nearly as bad as that. Out usually look like this: