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The 6 lost Hurricane Hunter missions, Part II: Typhoon Wilma, 1952

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:58 PM GMT on June 26, 2009

Dr. Masters is on vacation this week, so we're posting some blogs he wrote before hitting the road.

The second Hurricane Hunter mission that didn't make it back was the only flight lost in a Category 5 storm. On October 26, 1952, an Air Force WB-29 aircraft knick-named "Typhoon Goon II" (44-69770), making a low-level penetration of Typhoon Wilma, went down 300 miles east of Leyte in the Philippines. The aircraft was attached to the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron on Guam. The original "Typhoon Goon" was Aircraft 45-21838, which was stationed on Guam from January 1948 until December 1950, during which time she flew at least 25 typhoon missions. When Aircraft 770 arrived on Guam in January of 1951, she was given the name "Typhoon Goon II" to keep the tradition alive. The crew's last radio message indicated they were close to the eye and were attempting to make a low level fix. They reported that their radar altimeter had "burned out", and that they were going to fly in anyway, using just pressure altimetry to maintain the proper altitude. This was an extremely dangerous prospect, since Wilma was a Category 5 super typhoon with 185 mph winds at the time of penetration, and had a very sharp change in pressure near the eye. If the plane was attempting to fly at a constant pressure altitude, the pilot would have been forced to perform a steep descent in the eyewall. It is likely the aircraft hit a strong downdraft that carried them into the sea, or that severe turbulence caused the aircraft to go out of control, with insufficient time for the pilot to recover. The ten men lost on the mission were:

Maj Sterling L. Harrell
Capt Donald M. Baird
Capt Frank J. Pollack
1Lt William D. Burchell
1Lt Clifton R. Knickmeyer
MSgt Edward H. Fontaine
A1C Alton B. Brewton
A1C William Colgan
A1C Anthony J. Fasullo
A3C Rodney E. Verrill


Figure 1. The Air Force WB-29 named Typhoon Goon II, lost in Super Typhoon Wilma on October 26, 1952. Image credit: Arthur R. "Ray" Brashear, Air Reconnaissance Weather Association.

Sources: Personal communication, Bernie Barris, Air Reconnaissance Weather Association; "The Fireballs, an Unofficial History", by Robert A. Mann; "Flying the Weather", by Otho Spencer, 1996; Stars and Stripes 30 Oct 1952 page 1; New York Times, 9 Nov 1952 45:5.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Western florida hit looking very probable based on 0z model consensus.

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Quoting hurricane2009:


wont be a TD before tomorrow at 11am probably and that is IF it creates more convection

I got $5 on 5pm lol
Everything depends on what happens with the storm around the Yucatan. If it spends a lot of time over land it may weaken it too much. If it shoots the gap between the Yuc and Cuba then it will feed longer.
Ritavec

There is >75% chance that it will retrograde east when it enters the GOM. The weakness is just too great for the A/B and continental high to start ridging in over the area in time.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes TS Ana at the 8 am two

there has been worse looking tropical storms than 93l
2007. vortfix
I don't see a TD or TC before another 36 hours or better.

They'll wait to see how it does at DMAX and see it it can HOLD what it develops at DMAX, and also wait to see good visible sat pics to see if it really is a persistent low. I am tending to think it will not go over the Yucatan, and has a decent chance of developing, but I do not really believe it will hit hurricane strength.
Sorry if I upset anyone with my mini-tantrum on wishcasters. After last year I am still very raw and jumpy.

Forgive me.. crawling back into my lurk hole
looking at the current water vapor loop of the GOM... I'm leaning more towards a move to the NW, and then a shift to the west and even SW... (or east and maybe SE)

THere's a HUGE HIGH pressing southward right now that looks to stop the northward movement of the thing in the next day...

just my observation, though guys...
Quoting vortfix:
I don't see a TD or TC before another 36 hours or better.



I agree.....on my Blog i said this morning nothing will happen Named until Sunday.
People should go to the NHC for information. It's not my fault if they don't know better. lol

Also, even so, the general consensus is it will move in a direction towards the eastern GOM/Fl. How is that false information? The meteorologists on TV are saying the same thing. Of course, though, someone should be always prepared regardless. That's using common sense.


It is not false information and i'm not talking about you i'm talking about the people that pinpointed a landfall location in a 50 mile area...there is no way you can predict a landfall this early thats all i'm saying...If you would have believed the models when IKE was a invest it would have been going out to sea...
While it might certainly help remember what happened in FL in May I saw the eyes of those people effected, you may get the rain and more then you bargain for flooding, severe weather to name a few. you don't need a named system to make one's life miserable lets remember that.
This is like dangling a steak bone over a hungry dogs head!
Quoting hurricane23:
Western florida hit looking very probable based on 0z model consensus.

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Reminds me of Alberto...which in case anyone forgot, didn't amount to much.
2017. vortfix
Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree.....on my Blog i said this morning nothing will happen Named until Sunday.



Yes....I can agree with your thinking there.
There are several features involved with this one...so we will know more tomorrow after the 00Z runs.

Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Sorry if I upset anyone with my mini-tantrum on wishcasters. After last year I am still very raw and jumpy.

Forgive me.. crawling back into my lurk hole


Yea me too. we'll just watch the system and let the models predict where its going.
2019. GatorWX
Quoting gordydunnot:
Gator if you have some formal training you are probably right. I am just saying I looked at every satelitte loop on the nhc for 93l they all have a circulation at those coordinates if a mlc and a llc can look the same on all of them how do we determine a llc from satelite, serious question.


I'm sorry, I was actually wrong when I said it was south. It's almost due west. Sorry, been out for awhile. Put on the floater satellite view and click fronts. It'll show where the low is according to NHC. Looks pretty accurate though. You can see the ll clouds feeding into it. You basically have to decipher the levels of clouds by temperature and/or general movement. The low level clouds wont look as dense either and you'll see other levels streaming over top of them.
I don't like the model predictions on track. Too much of a Wilma feel!
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea me too. we'll just watch the system and let the models predict where its going.

alot is going to happen in the next few hours should be intresting will it be a td or just a red shadeing
good night and good luck
That high is pulling back but how far? That is going to drive track.
Quoting louisianaboy444:
People should go to the NHC for information. It's not my fault if they don't know better. lol

Also, even so, the general consensus is it will move in a direction towards the eastern GOM/Fl. How is that false information? The meteorologists on TV are saying the same thing. Of course, though, someone should be always prepared regardless. That's using common sense.


It is not false information and i'm not talking about you i'm talking about the people that pinpointed a landfall location in a 50 mile area...there is no way you can predict a landfall this early thats all i'm saying...If you would have believed the models when IKE was a invest it would have been going out to sea...


That is true. All that can be narrowed down to for now- location wise- is Florida. Even that could change but something significant would have to happen (look at Futuremet's post).
Quoting weatherblog:


Reminds me of Alberto...which in case anyone forgot, didn't amount to much.


If it were to take a southerly track it would have a better environment to work as shear would be stronger to its north.
I know everyone is looking at 93L
Does anyone have any opinions on the Beast from the east #1 & #2?


Quoting louisianaboy444:
People should go to the NHC for information. It's not my fault if they don't know better. lol

Also, even so, the general consensus is it will move in a direction towards the eastern GOM/Fl. How is that false information? The meteorologists on TV are saying the same thing. Of course, though, someone should be always prepared regardless. That's using common sense.


It is not false information and i'm not talking about you i'm talking about the people that pinpointed a landfall location in a 50 mile area...there is no way you can predict a landfall this early thats all i'm saying...If you would have believed the models when IKE was a invest it would have been going out to sea...


That is true. All that can be narrowed down to for now- location wise- is Florida. Even that could change but something significant would have to happen (look at Futuremet's post).
2028. 19N81W
test
2029. MahFL
The surface map.

Link
IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW IS TRYING TO GET BETTER STRUCTURED TONIGHT. SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE TRYING TO FORM. I THINK THIS WILL DEFINTELY BE A TD BY TOMRROW IF THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION TREND CONTINUES. IT IS NORMAL FOR ORGANIZING CYCLONES TO LOOSE SOME CONVENTION WHEN THEY ARE STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGES.
2026 I like your post there.
Quoting hurricane23:


If it were to take a southerly track it would have a better environment to work as shear would be stronger to its north.


That wouldn't be good. If so, we'd probably be dealing with a system stronger than Alberto.

However, I doubt we can narrow down a specific part of Florida yet. I'm not even sure this will be a tropical storm, but speculation is always fun when I'm bored. lol
T.C.F.A.
AOI/INV/93L
MARK
17.1N/83.3W

convective refire detected nne of current and previous convective cycle




Quoting Orcasystems:
I know everyone is looking at 93L
Does anyone have any opinions on the Beast from the east #1 & #2?



Orca, earlier the ECMWF was showing a broad low in the CRBN about the first. I think it will be associated with the beast.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Orca, earlier the ECMWF was showing a broad low in the CRBN about the first. I think it will be associated with the beast.


I was just wondering if anyone else saw it. Everyone appears to be fixated on 93L and I think this one could sneak in and surprise us a bit.
2037. 19N81W
I am no weather man but do you guys think they have that low in the wrong place on the surface maps? Not to mention its movement...
Quoting Orcasystems:


I was just wondering if anyone else saw it. Everyone appears to be fixated on 93L and I think this one could sneak in and surprise us a bit.

Ok here are my thoughts. The positive, the wave is far enough south to avoid the colder waters for this time of year. Also there is a massive high over the Atlantic to the north. This gives favorable winds (easterly) through the track reducing shear. They have a shot but there is sig shear coming off of South America which could destroy any formation. It is too early to tell but they are healthy waves.
Quoting Orcasystems:
I know everyone is looking at 93L
Does anyone have any opinions on the Beast from the east #1 & #2?


1 is runnin stealth 2 follows behind

evening orca
hr 27 mins till update
Quoting hurricane23:


Adrian, that image right there speaks mass volumes about the current situation down there right now my friend.
Quoting 19N81W:
I am no weather man but do you guys think they have that low in the wrong place on the surface maps? Not to mention its movement...

Hard to tell at this stage. No real obs out over the water and really tough to see surface circulation. You have to avoid looking at the rotation in the upper levels when trying to find a center. For now it is a good guess but it does look like they put it a little too far to the north.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1 is runnin stealth 2 follows behind

evening orca


You made the news again tonight :)
Orca those are huge I have been gazing on those very impressive, surely those waves will moisten the environment out there.
were always in the news
2047. Seastep
KOTG - more around 18N.

Time for bed. Goodnight all.

cayman island are right under that
semi-circle of convection
Quoting sporteguy03:
Orca those are huge I have been gazing on those very impressive, surely those waves will moisten the environment out there.


2050. Michfan
Quoting 19N81W:
I am no weather man but do you guys think they have that low in the wrong place on the surface maps? Not to mention its movement...

I think the low may be a little closer to the area of vorticity shown on CIMSS - more SW of where it is shown right now. Or at least when we see 93L start to build, I think we'll see the LLC closer to that spot.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
cayman island are right under that
semi-circle of convection

can you show me I don't see that
We are getting some very heavy rain and thunder storms at the moment on Grand Cayman. On top of storms last night I thing it will be another sleepless 6 hrs or so!!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

can you show me I don't see that



I am thinking it is less likely that 93L will go over the Yucatan. Also, I thought before that whatever it turns into will head to north Florida, but suddenly thinking further south--as in from Tampa south.
This is nice I just started my vacation today and now I might be looking at bad weather later this week coming up.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I am thinking it is less likely that 93L will go over the Yucatan. Also, I thought before that whatever it turns into will head to north Florida, but suddenly thinking further south--as in from Tampa south.


Good morning, should I in Naples be concerned about this then, Simmons?
It appears some people including myself at first are getting the mlc confused as the llc.. the llc is further to the sw and still appears to be heading nw... look closely
Quoting TampaMishy:
This is nice I just started my vacation today and now I might be looking at bad weather later this week coming up.

That is how it usually works. Did you forget to pay off mother nature again?

On a side note, I start a vacation Wednesday... I'm willing to bet that the heat comes back with a vengeance ("bad weather" in the form of rain would be fantastic)
Anyone think the nhc update will change it to a high chance (red area) on this next update? I think they will stay on the conservative side and keep it a medium chance.
Any1 on here?
yes get out your batteries and flash light
Quoting TampaMishy:
Any1 on here?


Hey Mishy
Keep 93L in check guys! I'm headed to bed - doing the early garage sale thing in the morning!
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
It appears some people including myself at first are getting the mlc confused as the llc.. the llc is further to the sw and still appears to be heading nw... look closely

Yep, I noticed that too. Right now what we have is a very confused system. A ULL over the Yucatan, a MLC south of the Cayman Islands, and an LLC stuck between them. Not enough energy to go around, until the ULL and/or the MLC die off or consolidate with the LLC.
Quoting jeffs713:

That is how it usually works. Did you forget to pay off mother nature again?

On a side note, I start a vacation Wednesday... I'm willing to bet that the heat comes back with a vengeance ("bad weather" in the form of rain would be fantastic)
I mean really do you think anything will come here??? It never happens.
Thanks TampaSpin for posting that... maybe it will clarify for some people...

Dont forget the water, flashlight and weather radio..lol!
Quoting TampaMishy:
Any1 on here?


I thought a Troll got you!
Yes, TampaMishy...there's a few of us out here.
Hi spin!!!!
Quoting TampaMishy:
I mean really do you think anything will come here??? It never happens.


OMG you just jinxed us big time....LOL
Quoting TampaMishy:
I mean really do you think anything will come here??? It never happens.

I think the Tampa area might get some rain out of this, but nothing beyond a very weak TS. And even with that... it is FAR too early to be prognosticating where something might go, considering the something doesn't even exist yet.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes get out your batteries and flash light
Who keeper?
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Thanks TampaSpin for posting that... maybe it will clarify for some people...

Dont forget the water, flashlight and weather radio..lol!


Its very easy at night without visible to think a midlevel spin is a LowLevel spin...
Quoting TampaSpin:


OMG you just jinxed us big time....LOL

What do I need to do to "jinx" the Houston area into some rain? Thats all I want, just some rain.
thanks Jeff exactly what i was seeing but i dont think everyone else is seeing it.. i have been in lurk mode here lately but i guess i am going to get back out of it now
Quoting TampaMishy:
I mean really do you think anything will come here??? It never happens.
it has happened before it will happen again just a matter of time once in tampa there was nothing but 3 houses after a storm
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Good morning, should I in Naples be concerned about this then, Simmons?
get out your flashlight and batteries
Quoting jeffs713:

Yep, I noticed that too. Right now what we have is a very confused system. A ULL over the Yucatan, a MLC south of the Cayman Islands, and an LLC stuck between them. Not enough energy to go around, until the ULL and/or the MLC die off or consolidate with the LLC.


Jeff the ULL low is moving toward the West it seems Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it has happened before it will happen again just a matter of time once in tapa there was nothing but 3 house after a storm
True
AOI/INV/93L
MARK
17.8N/83.4W

convective refire detected nne of current and previous convective cycle




Quoting jeffs713:

What do I need to do to "jinx" the Houston area into some rain? Thats all I want, just some rain.
A weather troll
2086. beell
Time will tell. If it going to amount to anything it has to get free of the westward moving tropical wave. Which may account for the odd appearance we see tonight. It's trying.

G'Nite
Here is my Blog site if anyone needs some info.....lots of good stuff to play around with also....Good nite everyone!

TampaSpins Blog Site.
good night as well.. im off till tomorrow.. everyone keep an eye on it for me... dont see it becoming a TD until late tomorrow.. jmho
2089. RyanFSU
HWRF pretty much done for 00Z. This time landfall with a powerful Category 4 (unrealistic) north of Tampa. HWRF is "experimental" and very aggressive on intensity estimates. Do not use for much more than entertainment (or doomsday scenario) purposes.


Quoting TampaSpin:


Jeff the ULL low is moving toward the West it seems Link

I hadn't caught a WV loop yet. ;)

The ULL definitely is pulling off, which will help the shear situation. The MLC, however, looks to be a headache. It keeps on firing up convection attached to the wave. (and some of the convection acts like an MCC in its satellite presentation and movement)
2091. msphar
As I recall from last year there were several storms that had trouble getting the centers all balanced. So the rain making part sort of wobbled around the LLC as each event progressed. Looks to me like this one might be another in that category.
2092. Drakoen
HWRF 00z has this thing at hurricane strength by tomorrow. NO way that is believable. I think the GFS and GFDL tracks are better suited. The HWRF is WAY too aggressive and should be discounted.
2093. Buhdog
Sat Jun 27 01:25:04 EDT 2009
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA AND HONDURAS TODAY AND COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA AND HONDURAS TODAY AND COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

AOI/INV/93L
MARK
17.9N/83.4W

convective refire detected nne of current and previous convective cycle




Quoting RyanFSU:
HWRF pretty much done for 00Z. This time landfall with a powerful Category 4 (unrealistic) north of Tampa. HWRF is "experimental" and very aggressive on intensity estimates. Do not use for much more than entertainment (or doomsday scenario) purposes.


lol
2097. RyanFSU
GFDL wasn't initialized too terribly well. Not sure what is up with the bogus. The inner nest never moved, so you basically have the GFDL with the GFS boundary conditions run at the coarser resolution. The output grids are at 1x1 degree for the big domain.
The latest model forecast tracks that are forecasting a turn to the NE and crossing Florida make sense to me. After Florida, the tracks roughly parallel the coast of the Carolinas.

North Carolina often has cold fronts that move in from the north, stall and die over the middle of the state this time of year. That's exactly what the local TV stations are forecasting for the next few days. The frontal boundary forecasted to die over our state also roughly parallels the coast, 100 to 200 miles inland.

Climatologically, it's awfully early for a significant storm in the Atlantic Basin. Rogue storms seem to be the norm rather than the exception over the last few years however.
Quoting Drakoen:
HWRF 00z has this thing at hurricane strength by tomorrow. NO way that is believable. I think the GFS and GFDL tracks are better suited. The HWRF is WAY too aggressive and should be discounted.

I was just looking at that, and I had to admit that I laughed. The HWRF takes a few clouds and spins it up into a cat 1 in less than 24 hours. Impressive.

The GFDL is a bit more realistic, not really developing a closed low until the system is in the southern GOM. I'm not quite sure what to make of the GFS, though. It has been all over the place so far.

IMO, with this system, I'm not really going to look at the models much until something actually gets rolling. If this is anything like last year, the models are going to have a rough time (especially the GFDL and HWRF) until a storm actually gets initialized.
Drak is back! I noticed the HWRF was really aggressive with central pressure last year too--everyone saw that. congrats on being a PhD candidate Ryan!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its very easy at night without visible to think a midlevel spin is a LowLevel spin...


Agreed...... nothing imminent, but interesting......

seeMs some mid level spin, with upper high trying to build...... I have seen stranger things happen, this definitely bears watching, particularly if the GFDL and HWRF are to be believed......



First squiggly lines of the year! LOL
HWRF = lmao

Good to be back for another cane season!
I noticed the NWRF has the pressure down to 938mb at landfall--it's more ambitious than Donald Trump!
2104. Drakoen
Quoting jeffs713:

I was just looking at that, and I had to admit that I laughed. The HWRF takes a few clouds and spins it up into a cat 1 in less than 24 hours. Impressive.

The GFDL is a bit more realistic, not really developing a closed low until the system is in the southern GOM. I'm not quite sure what to make of the GFS, though. It has been all over the place so far.

IMO, with this system, I'm not really going to look at the models much until something actually gets rolling. If this is anything like last year, the models are going to have a rough time (especially the GFDL and HWRF) until a storm actually gets initialized.


The GFS is having trouble handling the approaching frontal boundary and the associated baroclinic environment. Basically having the low fuse and track within the boundary. We really need something better defined before we can worry about track.
The thing I have a hard time with is the front moving below where I am---this month has been troughy with bizarre MCSs rolling down from the north, but a front clearing us at the end of June? Without help? I can see a frontal boundary getting dragged down in the north circulation on the west side of a storm, but a cold front clearing us at this time of year without that kind of help is really, really rare.
TWC says no surface low, doesn't the 1009mb qualify?
Quoting pcbdragon:
TWC says no surface low, doesn't the 1009mb qualify?



you can have 999mb and it doesnt mean you have a low..but usually pressure that low will give ya a inward low pressure system... but generally 1005mbs will give a system a more defined low... if the system is large in size..1006-1010mb could be a very broad circulation or also if very small... just a vortex! Tornados have indivdual pressures to them...they are vortexs...they start @ the ground..not in the clouds..and work their way up...95% of the time!
This system isnt much right now and probably wont be until @ least later tomorrow if at all. Still giving this a 40% chance... no global model support outside of the GFS... HWRF has a feedback error...GFDL has nothing much..(but whos to say this run isnt right?) and well there is nothing on the Ukmet.. dont pay attention much to the CMC or Nogaps..they arent that reliable! So in conclusion.. this is short... just watch it... it doesnt look too well right now.....
shear is increasing in the area of 93l
2110. vortfix
Wow!

Great to see you Thel!

2111. vortfix
I'll be back...with "Real Info"

2112. vortfix



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA AND HONDURAS TODAY AND COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

AOI/INV/93L
MARK
17.8N/83.4W

convective refire detected nne of current and previous convective cycle




2114. TX2FL
new blog
hello anyone on the blog
Quoting hurricane2009:
ok folks to summarize

#1 There is no TD forming in this area within the next 12 hours, probably longer

#2 Early concensus says Eastern Gulf but that can change

#3 Looking at every click of the satellite loop will drive you crazy, go take a rest lol


I know an old post - but I genuinely disagree with #1 - i think we will skip code "red" and go straight to TD by tomorrow night.

I do not believe we can pinpoint a track with this system right now. Will become much clearer by Sunday night. I always take an average of the models - with regards to track.
Good Morning,

93L is dumping heavy rain across the Caymans and is now heading for the Western Tip of Cuba and the Yucatan. The system is now expected to emerge over the Gulf later tonight as a 1010 mb low. I will have a complete update.