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The 6 lost Hurricane Hunter missions, Part I: the Oct 1, 1945 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:43 PM GMT on June 25, 2009

Dr. Masters is on vacation this week, so we're posting some blogs he wrote before hitting the road.

People have been flying into hurricanes and typhoons ever since 1943, when Colonel Joe Duckworth took a single engine AT-6 trainer aircraft into the "Surprise" hurricane off the coast of Texas. Hurricane hunting became safer with the introduction of sturdier 4-engine planes, but flying through the eyewall of any hurricane remains a dangerous occupation to this day--one that has claimed the lives of 53 crewmen of the six Hurricane Hunter flights that never made it back. Five of these flights were into Pacific typhoons, between the years 1945 and 1974. One Atlantic flight was lost, the 1955 Snowcloud Five mission into Category 4 Hurricane Janet. I will be running a six-part feature this hurricane season to honor the Hurricane Hunters that gave their lives in service to those us in the path of these great and deadly storms.

The first Typhoon Hunter plane was lost on October 1, 1945, when a Navy PB4Y-2 (BuNo 59415) went down in a Category 1 typhoon over the South China Sea. Pilot Lt(jg) Ralph Cook and Crew #34 of Patrol Bombing Squadron VPB119 took off from Clark Field in the Philippines at 0950 on October 1, 1945, to track and make half hourly in-flight reports on a typhoon at 22N 119E, between Taiwan and the Philippine Islands. Lt. Cook's fourth in-flight report was received by Base Radar at 1230, and gave his position as 20-06°N 120-08°E, altitude 9500 ft, heavy rain, visibility 50-200 yards, wind south at 40 knots, and slight turbulence. He was never heard from again. The entire area was searched thoroughly by a total of forty flights over a period of seven days. The wreckage of the airplane was finally found on Batan Island just north of Luzon in the Philippines (approximately 20-22°N 121-56°E). According to the Veteran's Administration grave locator data base, the crew remains are interred in a common grave at the Zachary Taylor National Cemetery in Louisville, KY. Of the six typhoon/hurricane hunter flights that never returned, this is the only one where the wreckage of the airplane was found. I speculate that since the aircraft was flying at relatively high altitude (9500 feet), they were not hurled into the ocean by a sudden downdraft. Instead, the airplane must have experienced a severe mechanical failure inside the typhoon. They were then forced to attempt an emergency landing on rugged Batan Island, which was being lashed by heavy rain and 40 - 60 mph winds at the time. The crewmen lost on the mission were:

Lt(jg) Ralph F. Cook A-V(N) USNR (Pilot)
Ens Harold E. Raveche A-V(N) USNR
Lt(jg) Oscar L. Smith A-V(N) USNR
AMM2c Kenneth D. Griffore USNR
ARM2c Darly B. Miler USNR
AOM1c James A Dugan USNR
ARM1c Royce A. Lamb USNR

Sources: "The Hurricane Hunters", a 1955 book by Ivan Tannehill; http://www.vpnavy.com/vp119_mishap_1940.html; personal communication, Dave Deatherage, son of Paul Deatherage, ART 1c, VPB119, 1944-45.


Figure 1. Six of the seven crew members of the first aircraft ever lost in a tropical cyclone, the October 1, 1945 loss of Navy PB4Y-2 (BuNo 59415). The photo of Ltjg Ralph Cook and Crew #34 of Patrol Bombing Squadron VPB119 was taken by Lt. Sylvester S. 'Bud' Aichele in late August or September of 1945. Cook and crew were a replacement crew that arrived at Clark Field on 22 August 1945. Left to right (standing: L.P. Hill, James A Dugan, Harold E. Raveche, Ralph F. Cook, C. F. Poland, Darly B. Miler, A. J. Kalton. Bottom row: N. P. Chamberlain, Royce A. Lamb, F. B. Arden, T. V. Wisely, Kenneth D. Griffore.


Figure 2. A PB4Y-2 aircraft in flight. These 4-engine patrol bombers were a modified version of the WWII B-24 bomber. They served as typhoon hunter aircraft from 1945 until the mid-1950s. Image credit: Max Crow, USS Whitehurst Association.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"The Blob"is something to be watched over the next few days, nothing imminent. I think its at least worth a yellow circle from the NHC but that's it right now.
1003. Drakoen
Quoting Vortex95:
I am quite trained in the art of sarcasim.


We just gotta get you to spell it right first. LOL!
1004. amd
Quoting BahaHurican:
Actually he said why he doesn't think the system's going to develop, at least 2x since post 400 (which is where I came in). What more do u want?

As a further aside, I will add two comments: 1) Drak says what he thinks and stands by it, really not caring what u think all that much. That's just him. U don't have to like it. Just relax about it. If he's wrong tomorrow, won't the situation prove him wrong?

2) Hurricane Dolly 2008. Practically from the time Dolly hit 45W people were hyping it, and only a handful of bloggers (Drak and Kman stand out, but I am sure there were a few others) said no way - there's no closed circulation. These guys got cussed 15 ways to Friday, lambasted, called everything but a child of God. When NHC refused to call the system, they got the same treatment. There was pre-Dolly, looking fine all the way, except, as the HHers found - NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. When the circulation closed, the storm was called and the rest is history.

Why'd I tell the story? I want to remind EVERYBODY in here that hyping a system won't make it develop, (notice StormW and 456 aren't satisfied yet) and saying it won't develop won't stop it. So STOP WASTING THE BLOG'S TIME with the personality remarks. Respect is due to bloggers like hurricane23, Drakoen, Kmanislander, Weather456, StormW, and about 15 other regular bloggers (can't remember all the names, but we have enough people to cover all 3 shifts) because they put their opinions where their keyboards are and make good observations about what they see.

As for some of the other "name-callers" I've seen on here tonight, I challenge u to observe the TROPICS instead of the bloggers, and to comment on your OBSERVATIONS istead of on other bloggers' style. U may think u are cute with what u are doing, but u are not respected, and that means the minute u disappear off the blog (which may be sooner than u think) u will be FORGOTTEN. In the long run, what keeps the blog running is respectable observations and forecasts. None of the namecallers so far are people whose names I would put in the category of "Respected Bloggers" I mentioned above.


baha, the voice of reason.

Also, concerning the blob off the coast of honduras, the pressure is STILL rising with the buoy closest to the blob.

Pressure now of 29.95 inches, 1014 mb.

Link
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Quoting Drakoen:


We just gotta get you to spell it right first. LOL!


Don't try and change him.. it took me years to figure him out the way he is.
i think this "blob" at the least should be an invest or have a yellow circle. I have seen other pathetic looking blobs get the circle. i never have understood the NHC reasonings in determining invests. i guess they are watching it for now - but doesn't that warrant a circle!! LOL!!!

1011. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
i think this "blob" at the least should be an invest or have a yellow circle. I have seen other pathetic looking blobs get the circle. i never have understood the NHC reasonings in determining invests. i guess they are watching it for now - but doesn't that warrant a circle!! LOL!!!



Lol...yeah the NHC is like that. I think they want to see something going on at the surface before mentioning it. Without any presence at the surface the system is very fragile. However the models are all forecasting a surface trough or low to form north of Honduras tomorrow and Saturday.
1012. Levi32
0z GFS stalls low just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula in 3 days:

I am well trained as well in putting my foot in my mouth <:(
1016. Drakoen
Getting into the GOM means it will have some subsidence to deal with. Notice there is no omega forcing.
1017. Ossqss
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
And as for the golden rule, I've always been interested in how a masochist would interpret the do unto others as you would have them do unto you ;)


What??? How many standard deviations away is that question coming from ???????

Sorry, that's not right at all on this blog.
1018. Levi32
Quoting amd:


baha, the voice of reason.

Also, concerning the blob off the coast of honduras, the pressure is STILL rising with the buoy closest to the blob.

Pressure now of 29.95 inches, 1014 mb.

Link


Notice the wind shift from East to South in the last 6 hours. The tropical wave is starting to move under the MCC now and the wind shift at the buoy may be indicating its passage.
Oz GFS - stalls low NW of Yucatan in 3 days. That is not good. SSTs are very warm in GOMEX right now. Not sure about wind shear in 3 days time.



heres latest ir trop atl image
1021. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Oz GFS - stalls low NW of Yucatan in 3 days. That is not good. SSTs are very warm in GOMEX right now. Not sure about wind shear in 3 days time.



It will be under an upper high which means light wind shear. The main hindering factor will be dry air in the area, but it should definitely be watched.
Shucks. I need to go to bed (gotta license a vehicle tomorrow, and would like an early start) but OTOH, things are just starting to get interesting w/ that WCAR item. . . .

Maybe another 1/2 hour. . .
Ossgss its not like there's a hurricane out there--chill!
1025. Ossqss
OK, now I feel guilty about, well nevermind!

BTW, it is a Q not a G, and now I am really gone.

I will not impair this blogs flow again , sorry.
1026. JRRP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



O.o

fading fast
1028. Levi32
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

fading fast


Yup, likely will be just cirrus debris in a few hours.
iam happy i dont think we need a monster popin up anyway
1030. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Yup, likely will be just cirrus debris in a few hours.


lol.
1031. 19N81W
Just did a flight from GCM to KIN and back.

A few very intense squall lines went through our area this evening. It has cleared out a bit but the thunder is getting louder and the winds gust from time to time. The pressure was lower when we left for KIN at about 7:30 PM (1012) was back up a bit to (1014) on touch down but trending back down with a wind shift to the S/SW to almost calm.

What was very strange tonight and maybe some of you weather folks can comment. We were seeing really intense lighting from TCU's that were only 18,000-22,000 high and relatively small? I dont see that very often.

Anyone see a low forming? or at least trying? Diurnal heating about to die off so maybe another flare up tomorrow if a low did in fact form?
1032. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


lol.


What?
1033. 19N81W
for anyone interested:

http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CIFS/index.html
ya should unblock me to see me drak
1035. 7544
Quoting Levi32:
0z GFS stalls low just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula in 3 days:



hi can i have the link to this one thanks ia

EUMETSAT's RGB of EATL AOI
1037. Levi32
Quoting 7544:


hi can i have the link to this one thanks ia


Link
1039. 7544
Quoting Levi32:


Link


thanks do you have the one for every 12 hours that animates thanks again
1040. Levi32
Quoting 7544:


thanks do you have the one for every 12 hours that animates thanks again


Loop here

All model products here

Goodnight H2009.
Quoting 19N81W:
Just did a flight from GCM to KIN and back.

What was very strange tonight and maybe some of you weather folks can comment. We were seeing really intense lighting from TCU's that were only 18,000-22,000 high and relatively small? I dont see that very often.
Now that caught my eye. I've been curious about the seeming increase in lightning events across the area (by that I mean about 70 - 80 W, up to about 30N) since mid-May. If these are from smaller cloud formations, that would explain the increase, but not the reason for the lightning itself. There has to be some kind of unusual ionization, something, that's connected to the increase in rate and severity.

Sounds like u had an interesting trip.

1034. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 12:23 AM EDT on June 26, 2009
ya should unblock me to see me drak


Anybody noticing the difference in vertical position between the offshore wave and the onshore AEW?
Quoting howarjo1943:
"The Blob"is something to be watched over the next few days, nothing imminent. I think its at least worth a yellow circle from the NHC but that's it right now.


I find it hard to believe it doesn't have a yellow circle yet! Models predicted it.......& wow what a burst this evening! Could be a 4th of July present Gulf Coast!
1044. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:


Anybody noticing the difference in vertical position between the offshore wave and the onshore AEW?


Yeah it looks to be a bit further north than the first one.

Quoting 69Viking:


I find it hard to believe it doesn't have a yellow circle yet! Models predicted it.......& wow what a burst this evening! Could be a 4th of July present Gulf Coast!


NHC didn't put a yellow circle on it because it is purely a mid-level disturbance right now. If it translates to the surface and is sufficiently organized the NHC will notice it. Also tomorrow morning if the MCC is fades this whole system may look like nothing and will get downplayed, but that won't mean it's done.
Quoting howarjo1943:
"The Blob"is something to be watched over the next few days, nothing imminent. I think its at least worth a yellow circle from the NHC but that's it right now.


Models predicted it and now it's making it's case! Happy 4th of July GOM coastline! Does anybody see any reason why this doesn't continue to develop?
1046. Levi32
Quoting 69Viking:


Models predicted it and now it's making it's case! Happy 4th of July GOM coastline! Does anybody see any reason why this doesn't continue to develop?


It's barely started lol, and as I said above it's still purely mid-level. Until it gets a surface reflection going it can't do much. The circulation is also over land, it's not under the convective blob.
1047. 19N81W
Well other than a couple deviations it was not that bad...got in between a couple squall lines. But I have to say the lighting was odd? very low in these clouds and very very intense and coming from build ups that we would not typically see lighting in..again low altitude ones...
Are we naming blobs yet? I like Bubba for a blob name. It doesn't sound threatening. If it did turn into something, a town mowed down by Hurricane Bubba would be hard to ignore.

"Yep, went through Betsy, Camille, Ike and then there was Bubba. What a blow." LOL

Yes, I know there is no Bubba on the announced list of hurricane names but there should be. I demand equal rights for red-neck names. :P
Quoting BahaHurican:

EUMETSAT's RGB of EATL AOI


Thanks for the SatPhoto!! Quite a different perspective.
1051. 19N81W
wow what a lighting event...its been like this for almost 3 hours....mostly cloud to cloud and sheet lighting. I have not seen this in years?
1052. 19N81W
off topic if allowed even for a sec. going to indian rocks beach Florida for vaca...anyone know about the area? looks nice on trip advisor and found a nice place to lay my head.
Quoting catfuraplenty:
Are we naming blobs yet? I like Bubba for a blob name. It doesn't sound threatening. If it did turn into something, a town mowed down by Hurricane Bubba would be hard to ignore.

"Yep, went through Betsy, Camille, Ike and then there was Bubba. What a blow." LOL

Yes, I know there is no Bubba on the announced list of hurricane names but there should be. I demand equal rights for red-neck names. :P


Lighthearted. Funny though!!
Quoting 19N81W:
wow what a lighting event...its been like this for almost 3 hours....mostly cloud to cloud and sheet lighting. I have not seen this in years?
We've been seeing this kind of stuff almost daily for the last 4-5 weeks here in Nassau.



I took this the last Friday in May. I've seen something similar at least a couple times a week since then. Despite the fact that we get tropical downpours, this kind of "fantastic" lightning is uncommon. Makes me wonder what kind of hurricanes and TSs we will see this year.
As my username indicates, I've been in FL a while, and was wondering where the Bermuda high is this year. It's either too far south or north. Help. Please.
Quoting Levi32:


It's barely started lol, and as I said above it's still purely mid-level. Until it gets a surface reflection going it can't do much. The circulation is also over land, it's not under the convective blob.


Funny thing is, Levi, these systems often go through a process called "organization" in which the center of circulation frequently relocates itself under the deepest convection.
Quoting catfuraplenty:
Are we naming blobs yet? I like Bubba for a blob name. It doesn't sound threatening. If it did turn into something, a town mowed down by Hurricane Bubba would be hard to ignore.

"Yep, went through Betsy, Camille, Ike and then there was Bubba. What a blow." LOL

Yes, I know there is no Bubba on the announced list of hurricane names but there should be. I demand equal rights for red-neck names. :P


ROFLMAO!!
1058. Levi32
Quoting Hellsniper223:


Funny thing is, Levi, these systems often go through a process called "organization" in which the center of circulation frequently relocates itself under the deepest convection.


Yeah, I mentioned earlier that if MCCs like this last for more than 12 hours they can pull the circulation under them or form a new area of low pressure. I don't sense that this will happen here though. The MCC is already starting to fade and move to the NE following the area of greatest upper-level divergence.
1059. Levi32
Quoting Fla55Native:
As my username indicates, I've been in FL a while, and was wondering where the Bermuda high is this year. It's either too far south or north. Help. Please.


It's unusual for someone to ask about the Bermuda High's north/south position lol. It hasn't really been further south as much as it's been stronger than normal in the early season. This caused the ITCZ to be further south than normal in May and early June. The faster than normal trade winds that also resulted helped to cause SSTs to dip below normal in the central Atlantic.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
WRN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
IS COMBINING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SW AND WRN
CARIBBEAN TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N W OF
78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS MOIST SLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES AND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MOVE WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

I notice NHC/TCP is pretty laconic about this. I looked at WV imagery and am not really seeing the moisture surge associated w/ this Twave, unless this blowup we are observing IS the moisture surge. They had the wave positioned east of JA at 1800 UTC yesterday, so it's not that impossible.

Will check in in the a.m. to see if we are still seeing the volatility.

Goodnight.
Quoting Levi32:


It's unusual for someone to ask about the Bermuda High's north/south position lol. It hasn't really been further south as much as it's been stronger than normal in the early season. This caused the ITCZ to be further south than normal in May and early June. The faster than normal trade winds that also resulted helped to cause SSTs to dip below normal in the central Atlantic.


Thank You. A little variance in the BH causes a big difference in our daily weather here in SW FL. When looking for the BH(Bermuda High) in the SatPhotos and surface maps, I couldn't find it. Everything seems askew this year. Just my observation. `
We have code yellow:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER
AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD INTO BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

1063. hahaguy
Ya , the blob is looking good.
1064. Levi32
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
We have code yellow:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER
AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD INTO BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.



Funny how they only picked one of the features, and the weakest one at that. The mid-level circulation is the main catalyst, but I don't blame them for picking the surface feature over the mid-level one.
1065. Seastep
Quoting Fla55Native:


Thank You. A little variance in the BH causes a big difference in our daily weather here in SW FL. When looking for the BH(Bermuda High) in the SatPhotos and surface maps, I couldn't find it. Everything seems askew this year. Just my observation. `


I agree. Strange, but very interesting season. Plethora of complex patterns.

Modified. ??? was an almost post for something else.
Finally, a yellow circle!! LOL!!

It sounds to me that the NHC is implying future development, but not anytime soon.
1067. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Finally, a yellow circle!! LOL!!

It sounds to me that the NHC is implying future development, but not anytime soon.


LOL I guess everyone's dying for a little action. I didn't expect them to put the circle on the wave I thought they'd wait for the mid-level low to make it to the surface, but it doesn't really matter. It's something that needs to be watched over the next several days.
Quoting Levi32:


Funny how they only picked one of the features, and the weakest one at that. The mid-level circulation is the main catalyst, but I don't blame them for picking the surface feature over the mid-level one.
Didn't I say the Twave was the kicker? LOL

On a more serious note, they practically HAVE to do it that way. Basically, if there's no surface feature, there's no TC. I kept thinking after I saw the CIMSS precip graphic that whatever used to be the Twave signature had just run into that other blob. There just wasn't anything else out there.

All right, maybe NOW I can go to bed. . . lol
1069. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:
Didn't I say the Twave was the kicker? LOL

On a more serious note, they practically HAVE to do it that way. Basically, if there's no surface feature, there's no TC. I kept thinking after I saw the CIMSS precip graphic that whatever used to be the Twave signature had just run into that other blob. There just wasn't anything else out there.

All right, maybe NOW I can go to bed. . . lol


Well like I said it was a weak tropical wave but it was still there, not only on the CIMSS Precipitable Water product but on satellite imagery as well. The thunderstorms we're seeing now are primarily due to the wave, but that doesn't make it the main feature. It was simply going to add its energy into the equation and perhaps act as a catalyst for a surface low to form, which may still be the case. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow.
Now we are going to see a lot of crowing, and a lot of crow eating.

I was also thinking that NAM picked up on this feature because it's a NAM type of feature (mid-level circulation, moving Eward off land). GFS and others may not have because the Twave was not all that spectacular.

And on top of that we STILL don't know - yet - if it will ever do more than give the Caymans and parts of Central America some rain.......

Awright, I'm really gone this time. . .
Blog is slow - guess everyone's gone to bed. I think there will be some shocked people in the morning. I see some potential with the storm, especially for the beginning of next week.

Levi - what are the possible steering mechanisms for this "blob"? I think that will make a difference on whether it has time to organize into a TC.
Quoting Levi32:


Well like I said it was a weak tropical wave but it was still there, not only on the CIMSS Precipitable Water product but on satellite imagery as well. The thunderstorms we're seeing now are primarily due to the wave, but that doesn't make it the main feature. It was simply going to add its energy into the equation and perhaps act as a catalyst for a surface low to form, which may still be the case. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow.
If anything does happen, this is how it'll do it. I said earlier it looked like the potential ingredients were coming together. Also, this is a typical manner for a storm to form at this point in the season.

I'm kinda hoping it fizzles. This kind of neutral leaning to el nino season has the potential to be a doozy, and if we see sufficient instability to fuel a storm in June, we may be looking at a rough 40 days of AugSep . . .
Whoa! CMC model is crazy
1075. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:
If anything does happen, this is how it'll do it. I said earlier it looked like the potential ingredients were coming together. Also, this is a typical manner for a storm to form at this point in the season.

I'm kinda hoping it fizzles. This kind of neutral leaning to el nino season has the potential to be a doozy, and if we see sufficient instability to fuel a storm in June, we may be looking at a rough 40 days of AugSep . . .


Well not necessarily.....El Nino is already here and will likely get to what they call "moderate" later this year, and El Nino years typically have active early starts to the season, but when you get into the meat of things it goes dry.
1076. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Blog is slow - guess everyone's gone to bed. I think there will be some shocked people in the morning. I see some potential with the storm, especially for the beginning of next week.

Levi - what are the possible steering mechanisms for this "blob"? I think that will make a difference on whether it has time to organize into a TC.


Right now it's being being steered NNW by the upper weakness over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As the upper trough there splits and a piece moves SW it will act as a westward pull as well as building a nosing ridge to the north of the disturbance. That should induce a northwesterly motion towards the Yucatan which is currently what most of the models are forecasting as well.

After that it's hard to say but it may make it into the southern Gulf of Mexico and if it does it may get stuck for a while and that's when we'll really need to watch it if it still has enough moisture with it.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Whoa! CMC model is crazy
GFS paints totally different pic.

Quoting tennisgirl08:
Whoa! CMC model is crazy
I tend to look at CMC less for strength of storm and more for steering of storm.

Which means if it keeps repeating that pattern, whatever comes of this blob is likely to end up in the Big Bend / Panhandle area of FL.
1078. 7544
the cmc could be correct all depends on the timing of the front it could even turn further south than the cmc shows imo
I don't know all of the jargon or abbr's, but I do notice when the weather is abnormal. We here in SW FL count on the afternoon TSorms, not only for the water, but to cool us off. I appreciate the acknowledgment of my query.
Quoting Levi32:


Well not necessarily.....El Nino is already here and will likely get to what they call "moderate" later this year, and El Nino years typically have active early starts to the season, but when you get into the meat of things it goes dry.
My 40 days starts around Aug 1 and is done by Sep 15 (but I need to go back and look at more current MJO prognostications before I can be sure on that). I don't have a problem with the el nino scenario, except that things are changing slowly enough and there's enough of a lag time to allow early high season storms to power up.

I'm also not liking the AB high setup. Ideally we'd have a few weak storms in Aug and early Sept, followed by an el nino shut down. Or, alternatively, a weak AB high could allow early recurvature of more powerful storms e.g. last year's Bertha.

But we shall see.
This "blob" could be a nuisance. If it stalls, it will have a chance to strengthen and then head towards FL coast. If it dissipates over the Yucatan, it will be much ado about nothing. Seems like the past couple of years most storms have fought the odds and maintained their intensity. I think this "blob" will as well and will cause some worries leading into the 4th of july holiday weekend. Especially for those living along the Eastern/Central gulf coast.

I hope it dissipates, but i just don't see it happening. Still holding its own right now.
1082. Levi32
Quoting tennisgirl08:
This "blob" could be a nuisance. If it stalls, it will have a chance to strengthen and then head towards FL coast. If it dissipates over the Yucatan, it will be much ado about nothing. Seems like the past couple of years most storms have fought the odds and maintained their intensity. I think this "blob" will as well and will cause some worries leading into the 4th of july holiday weekend. Especially for those living along the Eastern/Central gulf coast.

I hope it dissipates, but i just don't see it happening. Still holding its own right now.


On the bright side it might not amount to anything and could provide some much-welcomed moisture for the north gulf coast =)
Very true, Levi! Moisture that is DESPERATELY needed!!
1084. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:
My 40 days starts around Aug 1 and is done by Sep 15 (but I need to go back and look at more current MJO prognostications before I can be sure on that). I don't have a problem with the el nino scenario, except that things are changing slowly enough and there's enough of a lag time to allow early high season storms to power up.

I'm also not liking the AB high setup. Ideally we'd have a few weak storms in Aug and early Sept, followed by an el nino shut down. Or, alternatively, a weak AB high could allow early recurvature of more powerful storms e.g. last year's Bertha.

But we shall see.


Yeah...and El Nino isn't the only factor to consider. I'm not seeing an active Cape Verde season though. More storms close to home, which means enhanced threat to land even if we have a low number of total storms.
Quoting IKE:
00Z CMC


Whoa! That would be baddd!!
1086. Levi32
Quoting SCwannabe:


Whoa! That would be baddd!!


As Baha pointed out the CMC is not to be looked at for strength. It's famous for hyping up systems and making them look really dangerous. Basically the CMC always shows the worst-case scenario when it picks up on a tropical cyclone. It's not impossible but we have to wait and see how things evolve over the next few days.

Just felt the need to say that lol. The CMC can scare people.
I'm just a troll but if this thing forms would't it follow the weakness on the East side of the huge High that has caused all the record breaking heat in the US. Perhaps a Florida or Fla. panhandle strike??

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
No! I'm not from Florida!1
1089. Levi32
Quoting SCwannabe:
I'm just a troll but if this thing forms would't it follow the weakness on the East side of the huge High that has caused all the record breaking heat in the US. Perhaps a Florida or Fla. panhandle strike??

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


That big high will be retrograding to the west over the next few days and as the trough over the US east coast lifts out a weakness will be left behind where steering currents will be very weak. As the GFS suggests the disturbance may get stuck in the southern Gulf of Mexico for a few days drifting around. Until we get to that point it's hard to say where it might go from there.
1090. Levi32
Alright it's getting late in Alaska too. Time for me to go, goodnight all.
Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is in force.

This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62
kilometres per hour are expected.

At 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Nangka was estimated to be about
180 kilometres southeast of Hong Kong (near 21.2 degrees
north 115.5 degrees east) and is forecast to move north or
north-northwest at about 25 kilometres per hour towards the
coast of eastern Guangdong.

According to the latest forecast track, Nangka will be
closest to Hong Kong around midnight. Local winds are
expected to strengthen gradually. Heavy rain will start to
affect Hong Kong overnight.


Unless Nangka significantly strengthens or adopts a more
westward track, the chance of Tropical Cyclone Signal No. 8
is not high.

1092. IKE
GFS 6Z at 126 hours puts the GOM low south of the coast....

Another wave approaches the Atlantic. (Warning...image might take a while to download...)
1094. IKE
GFS 6Z @ 150 hours....

1095. MahFL
The blob has become more circular now.
dont see much yet ir's can be deceiveing. waiting for the visiable. have a nice friday
1097. IKE
Looks like an invest and maybe more, in the making, with the blob.....

Also looks like a drought buster along the gulf-coast.
lots of close calls this early season
1099. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
lots of close calls this early season


If this isn't an invest at some point, then I'm an idiot....lol.....
1100. K8eCane
Quoting IKE:


If this isn't an invest at some point, then I'm an idiot....lol.....



Morning Ike
This system sure looks promising for something to watch...has stuck in there all nite and still looks good. Doesnt or didnt the GFS at one point show this crossing the Big Bend area ( God Bless Florida) and then coming up close to the "carolinas" ( sorry Press) That has happened many times in the past with storms
Good Morning;

Tropical Update

1103. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:



Morning Ike
This system sure looks promising for something to watch...has stuck in there all nite and still looks good. Doesnt or didnt the GFS at one point show this crossing the Big Bend area ( God Bless Florida) and then coming up close to the "carolinas" ( sorry Press) That has happened many times in the past with storms


I don't recall the GFS doing that. It could have, but I don't remember it.

The CMC showed that as a possible track yesterday on the 12Z run.
1104. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning;

Tropical Update



That looks similar to the GFS 6Z track...I see a soaker in the making.
Good morning! Quite a bit of moisture in the Caribbean. I think that white speck in the middle of it is Grand Cayman Island.
1106. K8eCane
Quoting IKE:


I don't recall the GFS doing that. It could have, but I don't remember it.

The CMC showed that as a possible track yesterday on the 12Z run.



thanks Ike
maybe i was thinking of the CMC
Im not too into the models
1107. surfmom
Gooood morning.... I see the seedling has survived the night... do not want anything w/a name on it.....but if it IS a drought buster and a wave maker -- that would be mighty fine!!
slight northern movement small area of heavy thunderstorms so far
1109. K8eCane
Looks like it could DEFINITELY be a drought buster for central northern Gulf coast if you believe the models
1110. WxLogic
Good morning....

a definite invest 93l by 8:00 update
Becuz its a tropical wave associated with this feature and the persistant deep convection I think it could become an invest later today or on Saturday. I would be looking persistence today, but currently convection keeps re-firing not typical with a MCC. i don't normally call invests but this seems so.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


a definite invest 93l by 8:00 update

Ageed did this post from my ps3
1116. WxLogic
Well... looks like the disturb region has persisted overnight. CMC has been consistent so far with the development of this system in the Southern GOM. Now GFS has joined the CMC as far as having an INVEST in the S GOM too but with another path. ECMWF seems to be depicting some pressure gradient related gustiness in the NFL to CFL regions, will be interesting to see what the 12Z brings forward with this one. If it can survived the current light shear then it should have a good chance for further evolution.
There is still very little surface reflection. Most of the convection is due to upper level diffluence. If conditions remain favorable, it should develop some sort of LLC eventually.

06z DGEX
1119. IKE
1120. gator23
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

a definite invest 93l by 8:00 update


I dont believe so especially since winds in the caymans are 5 mph and blowing from the south.
Quoting K8eCane:
Looks like it could DEFINITELY be a drought buster for central northern Gulf coast if you believe the models


oh plz oh plz I want some rain.....I am about over all of this heat!!
1122. IKE
Quoting gator23:


I dont believe so especially since winds in the caymans are 5 mph and pressure is rising.


Pressure's not low, but it is falling.
1123. gator23
Quoting IKE:


Pressure's not low, but it is falling.


you are correct, I changed it below after i realized my error
1124. IKE
uh-oh....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
1125. IKE
1126. gator23
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


oh plz oh plz I want some rain.....I am about over all of this heat!!

To early to believe models. There is no center of circulation for the models to work off of. Right now all the models are good for is watching for early development. If this thing gets a Center of Circulation then the path would be anyone's guess.
Quoting IKE:


Pressure's not low, but it is falling.

yes it is falling
earlier flops in the past month pressures were stable or even rising. this one high pressure but lowering. this one might have a chance
1129. gator23
Quoting leftovers:
earlier flops in the past month pressures were stable or even rising. high pressure but lowering this one might have a chance


I will wait and see if it persists. Climatologically speaking, on average our first named storm in the Atlantic basin happens on JULY 10th this would be consistent with that.
1130. IKE
From Key West....

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CONUS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF ITS USUAL POSITION...AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH MOISTURE REMAINING PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...
DAILY MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS WILL DICTATE PRECIP COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS. WITH THE KEYS REMAINING IN SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IT APPEARS THAT THE DOOR
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR CUBAN ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS OF 30 PERCENT.
is this going to be a slow mover?
Looks like the Drak Adrian Model was wrong...no "poof"...
1133. WxLogic
Quoting leftovers:
is this going to be a slow mover?


Steering currents are not that strong... so it will take a while... hence allowing it to remain on water longer.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Looks like the Drak Adrian Model was wrong...no "poof"...

what about the cantori model lol
Quoting gator23:


I will wait and see if it persists. Climatologically speaking, on average our first named storm in the Atlantic basin happens on JULY 10th this would be consistent with that.


Mother nature does not follow set dates. Hurricanes have existed long before man kept record.
1137. gator23
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Mother nature does not follow set dates. Hurricanes have existed long before man kept record.


yes but on average July 10th which means as long as we have been taking records named storms formed in on or around July 10th. This storm if named would be consistent with that.
Quoting gator23:


yes but on average July 10th which means as long as we have been taking records named storms formed in on or around July 10th. This storm if named would be consistent with that.

avg this is weather we are talking about there is no avg
new discussion marginally favorable.
1141. gator23
Quoting Acemmett90:

avg this is weather we are talking about there is no avg


Yes there is an average and its July 10th. Why is everyone fighting me on this. It would suggest development.
AL 93 2009062612 BEST 0 167N 837W 20 0 DB
I just want to know who June 28 is consistant with july 10. That is almost 2 weeks. Send it the other way to July 24 and now your talking a month. No consistancy there.
Best models I've seen all season
we now have 93L
Tampa is getting hit with a storm that is dropping tons of rain and it isn't moving much. I expect we'll see flooding. The bridges are also blocked because there are so many accidents.
1148. gator23
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
I just want to know who June 28 is consistant with july 10. That is almost 2 weeks. Send it the other way to July 24 and now your talking a month. No consistancy there.


Dude you people are killing me. Take a statistic class. That is average. Named storm. July 10th. So lets for the sake of argument say this storm is named tomorrow. it would be two weeks before July 10 which would within 1 standard deviation. In your own example the average between June 28 and July 24 IS July 10th. Its an average. It doesnt mean that it WILL fall on that day but that it will fall within 1 standard deviation of July 10th. In this case anywhere from Today to Late July.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 93 2009062612 BEST 0 167N 837W 20 0 DB
That means we officially have Invest 93L now, correct?
1150. MahFL
Now I like those models !
17.5n 84.5w my estimate
Quoting Weatherkid27:
That means we officially have Invest 93L now, correct?


Yes
INV/93L/XX
15.9N/83.1W
That's cool I can agree with average. But to me, 2 weeks to 4 weeks in Hurricane season, is not consistant.
1155. Ossqss
Did the QuikScat catch the item today?
1156. MahFL
Yes indeed 93L.
1157. surfmom
1125 - badda bing IKE.... this baby is going to push some waves my way... cool us off with some rain...AND THEN.... I'll want to snuff it out.

Going to see if this is showing up on the buoy charts... it is a little soon.could make some nice waves..like Dean & Dolly (one of my favorites)

Not counting on rain here (the only way i'll get some) Off to work - maybe if I throw on the saddle and go for a ride... I'll get the T-storm I want so badly....VERY, VERY windy here in SWFL GOOD DAY ALL
Quoting Weatherkid27:
That means we officially have Invest 93L now, correct?



when evere he post some in like that that means yes


1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
1160. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 93 2009062612 BEST 0 167N 837W 20 0 DB


It made invest....
Previous track of Invest 93L

AL 93 2009062612 1 CARQ -24 141N 819W 20 0 DB
AL 93 2009062612 1 CARQ -18 148N 823W 20 0 DB
AL 93 2009062612 1 CARQ -12 155N 827W 20 0 DB
AL 93 2009062612 1 CARQ -6 162N 832W 20 0 DB
AL 93 2009062612 1 CARQ 0 167N 837W 20 1008 DB
Yep, 93L.
'Were it gonna hit' Lol.
Looks like Ike and 456 were right on this one.
you gulfers deserve some surf. good luck
1164. IKE
Looks like a lot of the convection is on the east side.

Must be some shear affecting it. CIMSS shear maps are down.
1165. beell
So I guess we wait and see if the convection stays with the westward moving wave or scoots on out over Cuba and towards the Bahamas in front of the weak troughing across the central GOM. There is some a amount of surface based steering in this direction. More than just mid level northerly flow.


Waiting on quikscat..

1167. surfmom
Nice Map Keeper!!!
Quoting CaneWarning:
Tampa is getting hit with a storm that is dropping tons of rain and it isn't moving much. I expect we'll see flooding. The bridges are also blocked because there are so many accidents.


I've got an amazing amount of morning wind -- BUT NO RAIN...... Rain equals NOWORK -- come on RAIN!!!
I'm looking at a steady 15-17 mph wind....
Surf Report/Gulfster:
Again we wake up to little wind swell in the thigh high range, maybe a larger wave mixed in and choppy. This will make 4 days in a row with a small ridable wave at some point during the day. Popcorn style showers off the coast will come on shore and may increase the wind a bit more. High tide today about 2:15pm and winds should continue from the WSW @ 15+mph. This pattern will continue for the GC through the weekend so we may have a small ridable wave for the next few days. Funny ball of weather down in the Carib slowly moving WNW and may become tropical if the upper winds lay down abit. This system will be monitored closely and we'll keep you up dated if any development may occur. Have a safe weekend!

Okay NOW I'm out *POOF*
tell jfv to hide.
Where is 93L headed. We could sure use the rain. Still have not seen any at my house!
1170. IKE
Appears moving NW. That would place 93L on the NE Yucatan peninsula....if it went due NW.

Looks like this one could be headed for the GOM.
SHIPS using BAMM for track takes 93L into the central gulf with ~60kt at 120hr.
1172. surfmom
Quoting leftovers:
you gulfers deserve some surf. good luck


thanks SOOOOO MUCH Leftovers.... from your lips to the Lady of the Gulf ear's...adios
1173. surfmom
Quoting Vortex95:
tell jfv to hide.

BAWAHAHAHAHAHA
so funny in here...i can't get out...one more time*poof*
Good morning everyone. Coming down in buckets here on the NW pointe of the island. Supposed to be leaving for work, but that may have to wait!
We are having a ton of sustained winds probably around 30 mph here and heavy heavy rain. I wish I had my video camera!
Report from Grand Cayman.....
The area of thunderstorms that the NHC is watching is currently over us, and is providing some VERY heavy rains. It has been pouring for most of the night here on the western side with intermitent gusts of winds (maybe about 30mph max). There was also a lot of thunder and lightening last night. This one is a real rain maker
Full-screen
Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.9 F
Dew Point: 73.4 F
Water Temperature: 82.0 F
Nowcast as of 8:12 am EDT on June 26, 2009
Now
Strong thunderstorms were over areas from near New Port Richey south through the Tampa Bay area to Bradenton and the Myakka Head waters. Other storms were near the Lee County coast and extended up through eastern Charlotte County to Lake Placid. A few other showers and storms were developing near Cedar Key and the Levy coast. The most activity was centered around downtown Tampa. Heavy downpours... strong gusty winds and dangerous lightning will occur with the storms...along with minor street flooding in urban areas.
Quoting Vortex95:
tell jfv to hide.


Someone give him a mattress to hide under...

Good morning all. Happy Friday!
Blob Buoy Watching

Quoting IKE:


Pressure's not low, but it is falling.


Also will add these links:

La Ceiba
(just a bit west of central northern coast of Honduras)
Western Caribbean Buoy Data (from CapeWeather - it is self updating rotation through pressure, winds etc. If you click on one of the buoys it will take you to the National Buoy Data Center for that buoy.
1183. Ossqss
Quoting Skyepony:
Waiting on quikscat..



Thanks Skyepony, limited access on big brother PC :)

The item is near the deeper warm water.
Today was supposed to be a huge packing day for me - just bang out the rest of what I could. The air conditioning went out last night and it's already sticky and hot in the downstairs of the house (upstairs is fine but already packed). I think I'm going to have a meltdown!

There's something brewing out there? Been awol for a couple of days - can someone update me so I don't have to read 1000 posts?

Thanks, Melissa
INV/93L
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I know that the models don't have much to go off of until the circulation is closed, but doesn't that initialized point of origin seem awfully far west?

Bring on a rain-maker. We can still use it here in SWFL.
Hi Bud's,
this is JFV. I took one look at that invest and totally freaked.
I am here with Pottery, where it has not rained in weeks, and I feel really safe here.
May the gods protect you all from this impending doom.
1188. WxLogic
FYI... Navy has it as an invest now. Link
Ok Ike, Please tell me CLP5 is unreliable.
1190. WxLogic
Seems the site is not cooperating with my linking hehe...
Quoting CaneWarning:
Nowcast as of 8:12 am EDT on June 26, 2009
Now
Strong thunderstorms were over areas from near New Port Richey south through the Tampa Bay area to Bradenton and the Myakka Head waters. Other storms were near the Lee County coast and extended up through eastern Charlotte County to Lake Placid. A few other showers and storms were developing near Cedar Key and the Levy coast. The most activity was centered around downtown Tampa. Heavy downpours... strong gusty winds and dangerous lightning will occur with the storms...along with minor street flooding in urban areas.


Great another wonderful commute. Or maybe I'll just sit here and have another cup of coffee!
Quoting eye2theskies:


I know that the models don't have much to go off of until the circulation is closed, but doesn't that initialized point of origin seem awfully far west?

Bring on a rain-maker. We can still use it here in SWFL.


Thats where the NHC initialized the surface circulation. They haven't posted FIX information yet, so don't know the basis for that position.
1193. IKE
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Ok Ike, Please tell me CLP5 is unreliable.


It's climatology only.

I'm thinking east of Texas, but I'm no expert. Just based on other models...cold front coming down...weakness may turn it more north.
not the guarantee I was looking for...lol
1195. szqrn1
good morning!! have not been following much last few days.... whats up with the big blob in the caribbean?
1196. IKE
NO,LA. long-term....

LONG TERM...
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY. A RELATIVELY
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN THIS
RIDGE AND SHIFT IT WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL SLIGHTLY
INTO THE MID TO LOWER 90S NEXT WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE NEARING
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH AND THEN SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE
RETREATS BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH INCREASED RAIN ACTIVITY AND AREAL CLOUD
COVERAGE. WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT JUST OFFSHORE...WOULDN/T
BE SURPRISED IF DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
Quoting RMM34667:


Great another wonderful commute. Or maybe I'll just sit here and have another cup of coffee!


Someone told me that the Howard Frankland is basically closed coming into Tampa because there are 4 or 5 accidents.
1198. IKE
Houston,TX. long-term....

OUR NEXT LITTLE DOSE OF "RELIEF" WILL COME
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES WEST TOWARD THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL
ALLOW A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES IN
THE AFTN. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS INCREASING TO 1.6
INCHES...WITH K-INDICES IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 MONDAY AFTN. HAVE 20
POPS IN FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY...BUT BASED ON MODEL
SOLUTIONS WE COULD EVENTUALLY GO HIGHER. BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS GOING FOR
THOSE AREAS.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS (PWS < 1 INCH) SPREADS INTO SE TX IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...AND
DRY GROUND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR TO 100+ FOR
MOST INLAND SECTIONS AGAIN TUESDAY-THURSDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THE WARMER AFTN TEMPS WILL BE
OFFSET BY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. MAY BE
ABLE TO FINALLY DROP THE HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
oh no its going too LA
Now we have 93L!

I think it will be an orange alert Today and a red alert between Tonight and Sunday.
Remember me from Bangladesh,Well in 1 and a half days i will leave for Maryland, i will miss my friends but i am looking forward to the weather in the U.S and especially the snow. Well it looks like we got something interesting on our hands. Hope it doesn't get too strong, hopefully just a rain maker for the drought in Texas.
Morning All.

What's that in the Caribbean? And where is it going?
IKE looks like no way in hell this system is going to TX according to NWS
this blog will go nuts overe the weekend
1205. IKE
Quoting RitaEvac:
IKE looks like no way in hell this system is going to TX according to NWS


I don't think it is either....either Mexico or east of Texas...
any one no what wind shear is like in the gulf this AM
1207. IKE
From the Brownsville,TX. extended discussion....

"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED BETWEEN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15
MPH. THE LATEST EXTENDED MDLS HAVE THIS MSTR AND DYNAMICS MVG NORTH
THEN NORTHEAST UNDER AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS SCENARIO KEEPS OUR REGION DRY AND LA/FL WET THROUGH NEXT WEEK."
INV/93L
MARK
15.9N/82.7W






A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD
WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

Ike,
See you got your invest you requested earlier in the week noow you have fulfilled #1 and #2 the blog is no longer slow and you have an invest!
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


Invest 93L

Invest 93L
1211. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
See you got your invest you requested earlier in the week noow you have fulfilled #1 and #2 the blog is no longer slow and you have an invest!


Yup...looks like Ana in the making....
taz try to find your info but cimss site has issues this morning with no graphics at the moment i will check later
i say wind shear for 93L is 10 to 20kt
1214. Ossqss
Considering the MJO, upper level environment and its location and proximity to very warm deep water, what would stop this from developing ?
1215. szqrn1
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Morning All.

What's that in the Caribbean? And where is it going?


hey there...that's what i was wondering too!!
live on Ms Coast. we need rain BAD but....
what a week to start the week for the fourth of july it seems we will be watching and waiting and not worrying about barbqueing this is gonna sit and play around in the gulf next week and have everyone waiting and wondering
Hmmmmm not a single shear map url is working right now..anyone have one that works... I keep getting... Data not available.
Quoting Ossqss:
Considering the MJO, upper level environment and its location and proximity to very warm deep water, what would stop this from developing ?



high wind shear
Quoting heliluv2trac:
what a week to start the week for the fourth of july it seems we will be watching and waiting and not worrying about barbqueing this is gonna sit and play around in the gulf next week and have everyone waiting and wondering
I wish that were true. I will be sooking all weekend. I have 50 slabs of ribs, 40 lbs. of chicken and 6 beef roasts to grill this weekend
me to orca you can get it if u use the stich pac/atl map but i think it out of date they must be updateing the info
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
me to orca you can get it if u use the stich pac/atl map but i think it out of date they must be updateing the info


It looks like this could liven up the weekend... the blog should start hopping anytime now.
Ike,
From MLB NWS Discussion:
Tue-Fri...
Great Lakes upper low will very slowly trudge eastward through the northestern
Continental U.S. And then out to sea. Hghts look to very slowly rise from over
the eastern/southeastern Continental U.S. From middle to late next week...and the h50 ridge
will slowly strengthen over south FL/Bahamas/Cuba. The Atlantic surface
ridge will respond by gradually lifting north...but only reaching
the ctrl County Warning Area by late Thu/Fri. GFS shows a few h50 impulses riding
over the top of the ridge across northern/ctrl Florida. This should keep ecfl
in a generally favorable precipitation regime...and if the GFS xtd solution
advertising h50 troughiness developing in the southern stream over the
eastern Gulf Coast/Florida pnhndl area comes to fruition...suspect probability of precipitation for
late next week will wind up quite bit higher than what is currently
being advertised.


FL is in W-SW Flow of moisture, seems there might be a weakness over FL?

so once it get into the gulf the only way it can go is either Norther direction or NE direction
Then again Ike, these discussions were written before the Invest so maybe their thought process will change.
good morning everyone

A very soggy start to the day in Grand Cayman.

2.75 inches of rain since midnight last night and probably 2.5 from between 7:30 last night and midnight. Surface pressure is high at the moment : 1016.3 mb

The rain continues at a steady pace but winds are light. The buoy 42057 to our S last recorded NE winds which does not seem to jive with anything developing to our SW as a surface low there would produce SW or S winds at that buoy.

Quikscat is due to download the pass that would catch that area at any time now so we will soon have some additional data to look at.
i want to liven up the blog but i dont want any monster forming either and with the heat and humity that could be a possible
1228. MahFL
Someone call Mayor Nagan !


Hmm the Beast from the East.. Part 1 and Part 2
where is drakeon this morning?
1231. K8eCane
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
I wish that were true. I will be sooking all weekend. I have 50 slabs of ribs, 40 lbs. of chicken and 6 beef roasts to grill this weekend



Ahhh
what time should we all be there and do we even need to bring a covered dish?
1232. Ossqss


Don't know if this is worth a peek or not
Quoting hurricane2009:
Morning all, so the blob didnt die?
nope but the dam model was wrong maybe they should have used the flush model
Maybe a little early to say. An ULL may be forming to the NW of the Caribbean blob which could help it into the gulf. It's just hinting at starting the last few frames, in the SE gulf of Mexico, otherwise continued N for now.

This link gives the amount of shear each model is forcasting..

What a time for the wind maps to be down.
well windshear is not a factor for this one being -10
1236. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Then again Ike, these discussions were written before the Invest so maybe their thought process will change.


I hear ya. Thanks for posting that.
Quoting hurricane2009:
Morning all, so the blob didnt die?

Nope 93L awaiting big gun models HWRF, GFDL to run on Invest.
Quoting Tazmanian:



high wind shear


NHC calling it 'marginal' conditions, So I say the wind shear is marginal.
Quikscat just got the left side. Doesn't look to be at the surface yet..
Quoting hurricane2009:
Morning all, so the blob didnt die?


No it did not, and guess what ?. The NAM has this weather as a low in the GOM at 72 hrs and so does the " reliable " model the GFS !.

Just goes to ahow that sometimes you can indeed pay attention to data other than models that performed well in the past. Does not mean that they will both be right but it does go to show that you need to keep an open mind when talking about the weather.
K8eCane, No cover dish needed, just money....lol
Cooking for the Curch Lawn Party
well guys atleast this weekend wont be boring we have some good guys that are smart in here like weather456 levi ike taz drak and by the way where is drak
I know I shouldn't say it... I really want to say it.. but then again I don't really want to say it... but did anyone notice the shaded box that 93L is in?


1244. Ossqss
We need more bouys in that area.



Link
1245. szqrn1
Can ya'll tell me when some more precise info will be out on this?.... and i will check back...gotta get to work.
Good morning everyone....Just looked at Quikscat didn't capture it completely but, it does not appear to have a surface Low YET as SKYepony pointed out already.
what that mean? shaded box
1248. IKE
May not be at the surface, but there's definitely a spin.
1249. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
I know I shouldn't say it... I really want to say it.. but then again I don't really want to say it... but did anyone notice the shaded box that 93L is in?




LOL! Oh no.

What is this box about?
Quoting Skyepony:
Quikscat just got the left side. Doesn't look to be at the surface yet..


That QS pass confirms my suspicions in post 1226 that there is no surface low to the SW of Grand Cayman. In fact, given that buoy 42057 last recorded a NE wind it would seem that any circulation would be to the SE of Grand Cayman.The wind barbs to the N of Panama suggest that there may well be something trying to to form at the surface in the missing data section of the swath which shows N to NE winds there.
Ah yes the NAVY shear maps. well here's the rest.
Quoting IKE:


LOL! Oh no.

What is this box about?

Don't you dare
1253. K8eCane
Quoting heliluv2trac:
what that mean? shaded box


called a Hebert box....Mr Hebert got bored a long time ago and set about doing some research...he found that storms that pass through his box affect Florida
this should only be a TS not a hurricane
1255. FMDawg
Quoting Orcasystems:
I know I shouldn't say it... I really want to say it.. but then again I don't really want to say it... but did anyone notice the shaded box that 93L is in?




The H... box?
The box means storms that have gone on to hit Florida have gone through the box does not mean storms that go through the box will hit Florida though.
Nice timing for CIMSS to be done.....the funk of that to happen....LOL
Pretty good looking for a blob of rain out there. From the looks of it its pretty symetrical looking or at least trying. I think this has better than a 30% in the next 48 hours of becoming at least a depression, anyone else agree?
Weatherunderground Mets filling in for Dr.Masters, new blog or discussion of new Invest will be nice. Thank you.
1261. jsker
Orcasystems
you have mail
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Pretty good looking for a blob of rain out there. From the looks of it its pretty symetrical looking or at least trying. I think this has better than a 30% in the next 48 hours of becoming at least a depression, anyone else agree?


Yep, I'm thinking a 40-50% chance actually.
LIVE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL;
so if and when this thing hits land it will be when next weekend
Puerto Cabezas in Nicaragua has a SSW wind.

If there is a weak surface low anywhere it may be onshore to the W of there in Nicaragua. The initialization position may be too far N offshore.
1264. I'm with you on the questions but I think it might be a bit early to tell the timing. I have the same questions...driving across the country starting on Tues with two kids and three dogs (and a bird). I would prefer good weather.
Not sure if posted already:

087
NOUS42 KNHC 261300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 26 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY; POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 23N 90W AT 28/1800Z.
how long is it suppose to sit over water
1269. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Not sure if posted already:

087
NOUS42 KNHC 261300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 26 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY; POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 23N 90W AT 28/1800Z.


That's about 420 miles due south of NO.

NHC thinks this is GOM bound.
Quoting IKE:


That's about 420 miles due south of NO.

NHC thinks this is GOM bound.


So does the NAM and the GFS
Quoting CybrTeddy:
LIVE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL;


Looks like a nuke from Korea getting ready to launch
are the water temps in the gulf hot enough to support tropical development
Quoting melwerle:
1264. I'm with you on the questions but I think it might be a bit early to tell the timing. I have the same questions...driving across the country starting on Tues with two kids and three dogs (and a bird). I would prefer good weather.


None of the models that are showing it so far have it hitting land (the purple one going to FL, LBAR) before the 1st
1276. Patrap
1277. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


So does the NAM and the GFS


Yeah, I noticed that.
Thanks Orca...
Quoting heliluv2trac:
are the water temps in the gulf hot enough to support tropical development


Yes.
Quoting heliluv2trac:
are the water temps in the gulf hot enough to support tropical development


yes!
Quoting IKE:


Yeah, I noticed that.


CMC as well. Just ran that.
Quoting Orcasystems:


None of the models that are showing it so far have it hitting CONUS (the purple one going to FL, LBAR) before the 1st


INV93L
1284. IKE
Quoting RitaEvac:


Looks like a nuke from Korea getting ready to launch


Delta IV rocket, it's carying a payload for NOAA. The GOES-O Satellite.
Cant wait to see if we get a new QuickScat.
Roatan with an East wind and Puerto cabezas with a SSW wind.

Sure looks like an inland surface low in Nicaragua.

Anyway, back later.
Looking at rgb, center seems to be at 18n 84.5 west moving wnw, but all vertical developement is being pushed n due to the ull off to the wnw of the disturbance. Ull is moving to the sw does anyone know what the ull is forecast to do. This looks like another tough forecast to make, seems we cannt get a tropical disturbance the last year or two without a ull in proximity. Exception being the gulf.
1291. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:

-- EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page --

Model Cycle: 2009062606

North America: Model Tracks for Mid-Latitude Cyclones


Mornin Pat

do those maps have the correct initiation point for 93L?
1292. Ossqss
When is the next QuikScat pass?
1293. gtodude
Quoting Patrap:

GOM 60 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model


Pat, or anyone else for that matter...I'm very new to reading these different tidbits of information that y'all post and I'm trying to gain an understanding of exactly what I'm looking at. With that being said, looking at the link that you posted, can anyone tell me why the water off of the SWFL coast cools so dramatically? Our water temps have been quite warm lately, making the beach a great place for the kids. Anyhow, any explaination would be great.

Eric aka gtodude
Greetings, based on the new invest, the board will be getting busy!
Orca is that a herbert box?
Great! Timing looks around the 4th!
Quoting Ossqss:
When is the next QuikScat pass?


2009/06/27 00:21:39 QUIK

~8:30 tonight (6/26 EDT), then plus processing time of ~1 - 1 1/2 hours
cloud tops warming atm I want to see them refire with a vengence before I think we may have somthing with a shot to get to a depression.
Indeed - I am officially out of Lurk mode -
Hi everyone!
Quoting NoNamePub:
Indeed - I am officially out of Lurk mode -
Hi everyone!
No Name--as in Big Pine?
Quoting NoNamePub:
Indeed - I am officially out of Lurk mode -
Hi everyone!
No Name--as in Big Pine?

You know it!!!!
1303. Ossqss
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


2009/06/27 00:21:39 QUIK

~8:30 tonight (6/26 EDT), then plus processing time of ~1 - 1 1/2 hours


Thanks, hopefully we get a peek this time around. That should be about 1000 posts from now :)
1304. Buhdog
I believe that in order for you to use the H-box card...we should point out that a storm going thru the box would hit florida...not a low or developing storm...right?
1306. Patrap
Hebert Boxes are Voodoo Meteorology,without any basis in Forecasting.
1307. K8eCane
Quoting Buhdog:
I believe that in order for you to use the H-box card...we should point out that a storm going thru the box would hit florida...not a low or developing storm...right?


i now understand buhdog that storms that have hit fla have gone through h box but not all storms that go through h box affect fla
1309. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
Hebert Boxes are Voodoo Meteorology,without any basis in Forecasting.


VooDoo, yikes !
1310. K8eCane
Quoting Ossqss:


VooDoo, yikes !



he sure marketed em well
1311. beell
Quoting Patrap:
Hebert Boxes are Voodoo Meteorology,without any basis in Forecasting.


I kinda agree with ya Pat, fwiw.
Hebert Boxes are a statistical tool. Worth a look for CV systems. Something coming out of the Caribb? Eh...
Well I see the DAM was wrong and this did become 93L.


New towering tops east of Hondurus popping, these are closer to where the center would form
Quoting gtodude:


Pat, or anyone else for that matter...I'm very new to reading these different tidbits of information that y'all post and I'm trying to gain an understanding of exactly what I'm looking at. With that being said, looking at the link that you posted, can anyone tell me why the water off of the SWFL coast cools so dramatically? Our water temps have been quite warm lately, making the beach a great place for the kids. Anyhow, any explaination would be great.

Eric aka gtodude

The water is very shallow around there, and shallow water both cools and heats more quickly. It also doesn't have much of a current to move around, so the water can't distribute as easily. Why it cooled so sharply in the first place... good question.
Ahh see if shear subsided, they were gonna tag it. So now we have 93L. I can't get the latest shear map from CIMMS, seems to be down for this run. However, I think a medium chance for development seems likely, the NHC will state that later on today either 2 or 8 p.m. if the system can keep it's blow up, kind of reminds me of how Alberto (2006) started when it became a TD, just one massive blow up. This is not even close to a TD yet, so no hype.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well I see the DAM was wrong and this did become 93L.




Of course it did...don't you know the Drak Adrian Model is not a tropical model?? :P
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Of course it did...don't you know the Drak Adrian Model is not a tropical model?? :P


Useless just like the CLIP and XTRP. The DAM isnt off to a good start.
whats up this morn cimss no data ohio won't let me in can't get any good info havent heard from the DAM model no flush model anal. either owell break is over be back at lunch any model runs for invests yet i meam gfdl and others all my sites are not working or down or something
So... catch me up.. when did they make it 93L..

I'm wondering why too. Outflow was exellent but besides that.. little convergence and shear was 20-25 kts.
1321. Buhdog

I guess this box is for developing storms too..had to re-read it.

I agree Patrap partially with you..but the numbers dont lie when it comes to those boxes and you can't just disount there proximity to florida. where they are situated really plays into how intense a storm can get before it strikes...but the main thing is that these boxes are for "major" canes. so wherever this storm goes it wont count cuz no way she ever get to a major (I hope) interesting that only 8% of box storms make it into the gulf when passing thru as a cane!
1322. K8eCane
Drak

Are you in Lurkland today?
1323. CJ5
Finally something to watch..

There is some strong upper level divergence but I do not see any lower level convergence with this as of yet. That could be problematic for development. Thoughts?
INV/93L

convective refire ssw of previous and current area
This thing has a long way to go folks. ULL is still impeding development and the Yucatan will disrupt it further as it drifts NW. It needs to get into the Gulf before any further development occurs, which looks like late this weekend. NHC will continue to call it 30% or less until it clars the Yucatan.
Quoting weathersp:
So... catch me up.. when did they make it 93L..

I'm wondering why too. Outflow was exellent but besides that.. little convergence and shear was 20-25 kts.


Shear was about 15 knots the last time I checked. Divergence was great, but the convergence was non-existent.
Quoting weathersp:
So... catch me up.. when did they make it 93L..

I'm wondering why too. Outflow was exellent but besides that.. little convergence and shear was 20-25 kts.


I think they JUST tagged it a few minutes ago. It does look good for an Invest, so it might have a better chance, the GFDL and HWRF will come out most likely tonight, probably not this afternoon due to the timing of the tagging. The LBAR and CMC are the only models taking to Florida, the rest stall it and slowly heads it west towards Texas or LA. Now about strength, gosh those waters are burning in the GOM, if shear can lower, we might have a big problem in our hands, thats IF shear gets more favorable.
Convection seems to be on the decrease...We'll see what happens.
Quoting reedzone:


I think they JUST tagged it a few minutes ago. It does look good for an Invest, so it might have a better chance, the GFDL and HWRF will come out most likely tonight, probably not this afternoon due to the timing of the tagging. The LBAR and CMC are the only models taking to Florida, the rest stall it and slowly heads it west towards Texas or LA. Now about strength, gosh those waters are burning in the GOM, if shear can lower, we might have a big problem in our hands, thats IF shear gets more favorable.


It was tagged hours ago.
BTW of you read the origins of the Herbert box(s).. it applies to MAJOR hurricanes only...

Link
Quoting beell:


I kinda agree with ya Pat, fwiw.
Hebert Boxes are a statistical tool. Worth a look for CV systems. Something coming out of the Caribb? Eh...


It is sad to see a respected, veteran hurricane forecaster, Paul Hebert have his name dragged through the mud based on urban legend. What Hebert observed:

Discovered by a veteran meteorologist, the Hebert Box is a relatively small section of ocean touched by almost every Atlantic storm 1900 that struck South Florida as a major hurricane. If a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm in the Atlantic never touches the region bordered by latitudes 15 and 20 degrees north and longitudes 60 and 65 degrees west, it virtually always misses South Florida. And if one of those storms, with winds higher than 110 mph, touches that region ...

"Really, really pay attention," said Paul Hebert (pronounced HAY-bear), a former forecaster at the National Hurricane Center who discovered the phenomenon.

It was only an observation based on major hurricanes striking South Florida, not any other part of the state.
1332. Patrap
With this system,where it ejects into the GOM is critical.
East of 90W the TCHP is very great.
stillwaitings 93L blog



All questions and comments are welcome!!!!
Quoting Vortex95:
cloud tops warming atm I want to see them refire with a vengence before I think we may have somthing with a shot to get to a depression.


AND the cycle continues.
'Red alert by 2 PM'
'Convection dying'
Not trying to say anything Vortex, but this is almost expected.
Shear is Marginal, not destructive too.
1335. gator23
Quoting K8eCane:
Drak

Are you in Lurkland today?


Probably he was horribly chastised yesterday.
1336. Buhdog
Another reason the SWFL coast cools and heats quickly is The calusahatchee river...intercoastal river that is HUGE! All of the rainwater floods down to the coast. When we have dry spells of high pressure it can soar! (we hit 91 this week) Like jeff said...it is shallow too...this is why when Lake O releases their lake on us we get red tide....all that fresh water mixes with shallow ocean water and Bam!
1337. Patrap
Hebert was a good forecaster,However applying Hebert Boxes to a forecast isnt the way its done.

Paul Hebert designed the boxes with a Bias to One Land Mass..so its inherently flawed.

Today,..the tools at hand are much better tools to define path and strength.



Wow looking at the models most were in agreement that its going into the gulf then move westward....But theres one model that has almost the same path as Wilma... That wouldnt be good, but hopefully it seems unlikely!
1339. fishcop
nice day in Grand Cayman! I feel sorry for our visitors but what a sweet relief from the relentless heat over the last few weeks. Lets hope this thing doesn't make it past invest 93.
You can really tell where the UUL is in that last satellite shot! Right on the tip of the Yucatan. Again, lets see what happens before we make suggestions.. The CMC may not be too off because if you look at the TCHP and water temps, I can see how this becomes a Hurricane. Though shear needs to lower significantly before even a TS forms. Not saying the CMC is right, but I do see it's point of 93L turning into a big storm, I don't think it's initializing the shear well though.
Quoting Patrap:
Hebert was a good forecaster,However applying Hebert Boxes to a forecast isnt the way its done.

Paul Hebert designed the boxes with a Bias to One Land Mass..so its inherently flawed.

Today,..the tools at hand are much better tools to define path and strength.





Hebert did not design anything, he just made an observation based on historical major hurricanes hitting South Florida.
1342. gator23
Quoting Funkadelic:
Wow looking at the models most were in agreement that its going into the gulf then move westward....But theres one model that has almost the same path as Wilma... That wouldnt be good, but hopefully it seems unlikely!


Without a center of circulation models really cant initiate correctly. focus more on paths after a center appears.
Notice the good Doc is on vacation and a Invest has formed, never fails, never fails lol.
It will be interesting to see what emerges off the Yucatan (and where) on Sunday morning/afternoon.
1345. Patrap
Wunderful...you run with Hebert Boxes,I'll run with the NHC and the available tools.

Why not do a Blog on Paul Hebert?

Quoting fishcop:
nice day in Grand Cayman! I feel sorry for our visitors but what a sweet relief from the relentless heat over the last few weeks. Lets hope this thing doesn't make it past invest 93.


Eventually, one way or another an invest is going to make it past 9*L status this season.
I like the way 456 put it, the later we hav to wait for the first named storm to form, the stronger that will be. Case and point, Andrew and Alex.
1347. gtodude
Quoting Buhdog:
Another reason the SWFL coast cools and heats quickly is The calusahatchee river...intercoastal river that is HUGE! All of the rainwater floods down to the coast. When we have dry spells of high pressure it can soar! (we hit 91 this week) Like jeff said...it is shallow too...this is why when Lake O releases their lake on us we get red tide....all that fresh water mixes with shallow ocean water and Bam!


Buhdog, I live in Punta Gorda and yes it has been quite warm here as well the past two weeks...if fact I think we hit 96+ a couple times. So my take is that due to all of the rain that the Cape had, along with rain along the tributary system of the Caloosahatchee all contribute to the cooling of the gulf. I understand that completely, but that raises another question. If that is the case, why would the cooling appear according to that model happen so far offshore rather than from the river out? I'm sorry if these newbie questions are stupid, but its only stupid if I don't ask. :)
1348. beell
I don't think I dragged him through the mud, did I nrt? Not my intent anyway.

And thanks for the additional information.
)
1349. Patrap

IR


WV
Quoting tarpontexas:
It will be interesting to see what emerges off the Yucatan (and where) on Sunday morning/afternoon.
aye keep yer head up and yer eyes wide open
Here we go, lets get those Hunters packed and ready for flight!

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 26 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY; POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 23N 90W AT 28/1800Z.
Looks to me its trying to tighten up a bit. Getting more of that oval/circular shape, maybe why convection decreased a bit.
1354. K8eCane
Quoting gator23:


Probably he was horribly chastised yesterday.


well if thats what happened he really should come on out
blog bullying isnt funny
Quoting beell:
I don't think I dragged him through the mud, did I nrt? Not my intent anyway.

And thanks for the additional information.
)


No Beell, just the running blog "joke" on his observation. It's not a forecasting tool.
Quoting Buhdog:
Another reason the SWFL coast cools and heats quickly is The calusahatchee river...intercoastal river that is HUGE! All of the rainwater floods down to the coast. When we have dry spells of high pressure it can soar! (we hit 91 this week) Like jeff said...it is shallow too...this is why when Lake O releases their lake on us we get red tide....all that fresh water mixes with shallow ocean water and Bam!


I belong to this group on the other end on the okeechobee discharges.

Rivers Coalition
1357. gator23
Why does it look like its moving north on the satellite. i know its not. i was just wondering
1358. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


No Beell, just the running blog "joke" on his observation. It's not a forecasting tool.


And why I called it a statistical tool.
Thanks!
Ooohhh.. this wasn't here last night..

1360. Buhdog
Great question GTO I wish i knew the answer. Maybe the water is quickly rushed out sea and the shallow water just warms up quickly again...Even with the recent rain...the temps are above normal and probably reheat fast.
NEW SHEAR MAP!!
It's under 20 knots of shear, a bit too high for development.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
Plenty of convergence with the surface low off of Central America.



Still some divergence.

1363. Buhdog
Indian river guy....

what a great site...i wonder if there is one for my side of the state. Our blue crabs were practically wiped out. This year with the drought I actually had some crab and snook in the canals off the river Most brackish its been in years....oh yeah, no red tide either...hmmmm.
However, if the 5-10 knots of wind shear that is near the Yucatan stays, we might have an interesting night tonight with a possible (90L) situation where it organizes right before landfall.
Large area of shear. I would reconsider its development for the time being.

Our invest is the new blow-up of convection off of Central America. Not the old MCC.

1367. afj3
Does anyone have links to the models? Someone gave it to me recently but my hard drive crashed and I lost them. Much appreciated!
1368. fire635
Quoting Funkadelic:
Wow looking at the models most were in agreement that its going into the gulf then move westward....But theres one model that has almost the same path as Wilma... That wouldnt be good, but hopefully it seems unlikely!


Sorry.. but WAAAAY too early to be fixing on potential paths. The models barely have somthing to try to track right now.
Quoting afj3:
Does anyone have links to the models? Someone gave it to me recently but my hard drive crashed and I lost them. Much appreciated!


GFDL and HWRF havent been run. Heres the operational models. Link


So does that change the thinking of where its heading. Its hard to not see how it looks to be N if not almost right under FL.
1371. fire635
Looks to me as if the LLC is to the west of the majority of the convection
Yeah lol I realize thats its way to early in the ballgame, but it just dawned on me that the model looked like wilma's.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Our invest is the new blow-up of convection off of Central America. Not the old MCC.



See post 1313
Quoting fire635:
Looks to me as if the LLC is to the west of the majority of the convection


It is that way. Convection is firing near it right now.
1375. Ossqss
Quoting afj3:
Does anyone have links to the models? Someone gave it to me recently but my hard drive crashed and I lost them. Much appreciated!


Try this,and scroll down.

Link

L8R -- I'll be back for the blame storming session later.
1376. afj3
Thanks!!!
As its already been stated the invest is not the big MCC over by Cuba its that little blow up right off the central american coast... its small not the big thing....
1378. K8eCane
its moving NW
Dramatic blow up of convection over the LLC. TCHP looks low in that area but higher where it's headed.

Invest 93L

Invest 93L


Off to work... have fun :)
Of some concern is some models have the high losing its grip over the plains somewhat next week...
1382. CJ5
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Plenty of convergence with the surface low off of Central America.



Yep, the new map made a big difference...may be on to something now.
1383. Patrap


The faster that MCC dies, the better chance the LLC near Central America has. It'll be interesting how/where the new convection reforms over the LLC over the next few hours.
1385. K8eCane
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The faster that MCC dies, the better chance the LLC near Central America has. It'll be interesting how/where the new convection reforms over the LLC over the next few hours.



yes next couple of days should indeed be interesting
Benito Juarez on the Yucatan looks to take a hit from this
1387. fire635
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The faster that MCC dies, the better chance the LLC near Central America has. It'll be interesting how/where the new convection reforms over the LLC over the next few hours.


It seems to me that the MCC is starting to noticeably lose convection and move farther north out of the way.
New Blog
Morning all

Small brag. I knew there was a reason to watch that Twave.. . .

That MLC could have blown for days to no effect. Add one little low level distortion, and BLAM!

lol

Ahhh. . . tropical interest. . . .