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The 25 Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters of 2014

By: Jeff Masters 7:58 PM GMT on January 13, 2015

Earth had a relatively quiet year for natural disasters in 2014, with the combined economic losses adding up to $132 billion US dollars--37% below the $211 billion per year average damages from the previous ten years, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report issued today. There were 25 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2014, and 27 billion-dollar natural disasters (including earthquakes.) This is slightly below the ten-year average of 27 billion-dollar weather disasters and contrasts sharply with 2013, which set a new record for billion-dollar weather disasters with 41. The most expensive natural disaster of 2014 was September flooding in India and Pakistan caused by torrential monsoon rains. The $16 billion in damage done in India's Jammu and Kashmir region made the flood that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history, surpassing the $11.6 billion price tag (2014 dollars) of the July 1993 monsoon floods, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. India was the only nation to suffer its most expensive natural disaster in history in 2014. For comparison, six nations had their most expensive natural disaster in history in 2013. The deadliest disaster of 2014 was a multi-month period of flash flooding and landslides that killed an estimated 2,600 people in Afghanistan.



U.S. sees 8 - 9 billion-dollar weather disasters
In the U.S., there were nine billion-dollar weather disasters in 2014, according to Aon Benfield. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center gave a lower number of U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters in 2013: eight, which is also the ten-year average of these disasters. The eight billion-dollar weather disasters of 2014 marked the 6th highest yearly total since 1980. Five of the top six years for these disasters have occurred in the past seven years. Billion-dollar events account for roughly 80% of the total U.S. losses for all weather-related disasters.


Figure 1. The yearly number of billion-dollar U.S. weather disasters, adjusted for inflation, as compiled by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. The yearly number of billion-dollar global weather disasters, adjusted for inflation, as compiled by insurance broker Aon Benfield in their Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Reports. The increasing trend in weather disaster losses is thought to be primarily due to increases in wealth and population, and to people moving to more vulnerable areas--though the studies attempting to correct damage losses for these factors are highly uncertain. Climate change may be partly to blame for the rise in disaster losses, but we are better off looking at how the atmosphere, oceans, and glaciers are changing to find evidence that climate change is occurring--and there is plenty of evidence there. I discuss this topic in more detail in a 2012 post, Damage Losses and Climate Change.

The 25 billion-dollar weather disasters of 2014

Multi-Month Drought Disaster 1. China's 2nd most expensive drought in its history hit during the summer of 2014, costing $5.2 billion and bringing nine Chinese provinces some of their lowest rain totals since 1961. Among the worst-hit areas were Shandong, Shaanxi, Henan, and Inner Mongolia, where the lack of rainfall caused severe damage to crops and limited the availability of drinking water. In this photo, we see a farmer standing in dried and cracked earth that used to be the bottom of Zhifang Reservoir on July 29, 2014 in Dengfeng, China. Photo credit: ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images.


Multi-Month Drought Disaster 2. Southeastern Brazil's worst drought in 50 years brought São Paulo, South America's largest city with a population near 20 million, to the brink of running out of water late in 2014. The drought cost at least $4.3 billion, making it the third most expensive natural disaster in Brazil's history. This is the second consecutive year of disastrous drought in Brazil--drought in Northeast Brazil during the first five months of 2013 caused an estimated $8 billion in damage, making it Brazil's second most expensive natural disaster in history. According to the international disaster database EM-DAT, Brazil's costliest natural disaster was the drought of 1978 ($2.3 billion in 1978 dollars, or $8.3 billion 2014 dollars.) In this photo, we see cattle in a drought-parched field in Quixada, Ceara state, Brazil on January 2, 2014. Small farmers in Ceara state have not able to harvest corn to feed cattle, and have been selling them at a loss. Aurelien Francisco Barros/AFP/Getty Images.


Multi-Month Drought Disaster 3. The Western U.S. drought of 2014 brought damages estimated at $4 billion. Severe, extreme or exceptional drought covered 95% of California by September 2014, thanks to a drought that one research team said was the state's worst 1-year and 3-year drought for at least 1,200 years. The California Farm Water Coalition estimated agricultural losses at $3.6 billion in California. In this photo, we see one of the key water supply reservoirs for Central California, Lake Oroville, on January 20, 2014. California endured its hottest year on record in 2014, which exacerbated the drought. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

January

Disaster 1. The cold wave and winter weather associated with the Midwest and Eastern U.S. "Polar Vortex" episode of January 5 - 8, 2014, cost an estimated $3 billion and resulted in 21 deaths. In this picture, we see snow shovelers take a break in South Haven, Michigan after an epic lake effect snowstorm buried the city on January 8, 2014. Image credit: Wunderphotographer nanamac.

February

Disaster 1. Volunteers use a pontoon to move a car that has been cut off by flood waters at Burrowbridge on the Somerset Levels on February 27, 2014 in Somerset, England. Portions of England and Wales experienced their wettest winter since records began in 1766, causing $1.5 billion in damage during December 23, 2013 - March 1, 2014. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)


Disaster 2. Pedestrians cross a street in the snow in Tokyo on February 15, 2014. The heaviest snow in decades fell across portions of Japan February 8 - 16, 2014, killing 95 and injuring 2,750, mostly in traffic accidents. Tokyo's 27 centimeters (10.6 inches) of snow was the most snow in 45 years. The heavy snow caused widespread residential and commercial damage while also severely disrupting transportation and causing production delays. Total economic losses were estimated at $5 billion. Photo credit: KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images.

April

Disaster 1. The U.S. tornado outbreak of April 27 - May 1 killed 39 and caused $1.6 billion in damage. Eleven tornadoes rated EF-3 or higher touched down, including two EF-4 tornadoes. In this photo we see tornado damage at an RV dealership in Mayflower, Arkansas, from an EF-4 tornado that hit on April 28, 2014, killing one person. Image credit: Wunderphotographer ChanChan72.


Disaster 2. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes April 2 - 4 did $1.5 billion in damage across the U.S. Midwest, Plains, and Southeast. In this image, we see the outcome when an April 3, 2014 severe thunderstorm in Belleville, IL snapped large pine tree about 20 feet up from its base and blew it across the street into a house and car. Image credit: wunderphotographer mwhiker.


Disaster 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Ita taken at 04 UTC April 11, 2014. At the time, Ita was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds. Ita ravaged agriculture in Queensland, Australia, resulting in $1 billion in damage. Image credit: NASA.


Disaster 4. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes April 12 - 14 did $1 billion in damage across the U.S. Midwest, Plains, and Southeast. In this image, we a squall line blowing into Tulsa, Oklahoma on April 13, 2014. Image credit: Wunderphotographer mrwing13.

May

Disaster 1. Torrential rains on May 14 - 15 in Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina caused extreme flooding that killed 86 people and caused $4.5 billion in damage. The heavy rains were caused by Extratropical Storm Yvette, a strong and slow-moving upper-level low pressure that cut off from the jet stream and lingered over the region for two days, pulling up copious amounts of moisture from the Mediterranean Sea. This photo shows a landslide and floodwaters around houses in the village of Topcic Polje, near the central Bosnian town of Zenica, on May 15, 2014. Photo credit: ELVIS BARUKCIC/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 2. Flooding rains in China May 24 - 28 killed 37 people and caused $1.2 billion in damage. In this image we see dark clouds gathering in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province of China on May 22, 2014. Image credit: ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images.


Disaster 3. An outbreak of severe weather hit the Midwest, Rockies, and Northeast U.S. from May 18 - 23, causing $4 billion in damage. In this image taken by wunderphotographer Darhawk, we see a supercell thunderstorm near Denver, Colorado on May 22, 2014 that prompted issuance of a tornado warning.

June

Disaster 1. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms across Germany, France and Belgium on June 8 - 10, 2014 killed six people in Germany and did $4 billion in damage. Hail up to 7.0 centimeters (2.75 inches) in diameter and winds beyond 145 kph (90 mph) were recorded. Extensive crop damage was also noted in southwestern France around Bordeaux, Cognac, and Languedoc where swaths of vineyards were destroyed. In this image, a boy walks next to a tree that fell on a building on June 9, 2014 in Cognac, France a few hours after a violent storm. Image credit: NICOLAS TUCAT/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 2. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes June 3 - 9 killed three people and did $1.7 billion in damage across the U.S. Midwest, Plains, and Rockies. In this photo, we see lightning damage to a tree in Galesburg, IL on June 6, 2014. Image credit: wunderphotographer Netwalkr.

July

Disaster 1. With a name meaning “thunder of God,” Rammasun was the strongest typhoon to hit China’s Hainan Province in 41 years. Rammasun peaked as a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph, and hit China with top sustained winds of 140 mph. Rammasun killed 206 and did $7.2 billion in damage. This image was taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:35 p.m. local time (0535 UTC) on July 18, 2014, when Rammasun was just off the coast of northern Hainan Island. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards.


Disaster 2. Torrential monsoon rains over southern China July 13 - 18, 2014, killed 66 people and did $1.25 billion in damage. In this photo, a bridge in Fenghuang Ancient Town is submerged by flood waters on July 15, 2014 in Jishou, China. Image credit: ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images.

August

Disaster 1. Torrential rains swamped Detroit, Baltimore, and Long Island August 11 - 13, killing one person and causing $2 billion in damage. About $1 billion of the damage occurred in the Detroit area, where two months’ worth of precipitation fell in just 24 hours. In this photo, we see flooding near Islip, New York, on August 13, 2014. Islip set an all-time New York state record for 24-hour precipitation with 13.57". Image credit: wunderphotographer Hurricane765.

September

Disaster 1. Torrential monsoon rains of over 12" (305 mm) lashed the India-Pakistan border region of Kashmir and Jammu Provinces on September 3 - 7, triggering devastating floods that swept through the mountainous region, killing at least 648 people and doing $18 billion in damage. Hardest-hit were India's Jammu and Kashmir region, where damages were estimated at $16+ billion. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this is the most expensive natural disaster in India's history, surpassing the $11.6 billion price tag (2014 dollars) of the July 1993 monsoon floods. In Pakistan, at least 207 people died and damage was estimated at $2 billion. Crippling and catastrophic floods have become the new normal in Pakistan, where the six most expensive floods in their history have come in the past eight years--2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2007, and 2013. In this image, we see Indian residents look on from a roof as raging waters from the overflowing Tawi river inundate a Hindu Temple in Jammu on September 6, 2014. Image credit: STRDEL/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 2. Typhoon Kalmaegi hit the Philippines, China, and Vietnam between September 10 - 16, killing at least 31 and doing $3 billion in damage. The typhoon's first landfall, as a Category 1 storm, came in the Philippines’ Luzon Island, where 12 people were killed and at least 1,500 homes damaged, with damages estimated at $14 million. Kalmaegi killed nine people in China and did $2.9 billion in damage. In Vietnam, ten people were killed across northern sections of the country, and damages were estimated at $4.5 million. In this image, we see Kalmaegi as it swirled to the south of the island of Taiwan at night, as seen from the International Space Station by astronaut Reid Wiseman ‏(@astro_reid) at 3 pm EDT September 14, 2014. At the time, Kalmaegi had just crossed the Philippines' Luzon Island as a Category 1 typhoon, and had weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Hong Kong is the other bright patch of lights. Image credit: Reid Wiswman.


Disaster 3. Hurricane Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on September 15, 2014, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Odile was the strongest storm on record to hit Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula, and killed five people and injured 135. Tens of thousands of homes, structures and vehicles were damaged or destroyed by Odile’s high winds and flooding rains, and total damage was estimated at $2.5 billion. This is a MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Odile off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, taken at approximately 2 pm EDT Sunday September 14, 2014. At the time, Odile was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Disaster 4. Torrential rains in southwestern China on September 10 - 17 killed 50 and did $1.4 billion in damage. In this VIIRS satellite image from September 16, 2014, we see Typhoon Kalmaegi hitting southeast China at the same time as torrential rains from unrelated thunderstorms are causing this $1.4 billion flooding disaster in southwest China. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.


Disaster 5. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms September 27 - 30 did $1 billion in damage across the U.S. Southwest and Rockies. In this image, we see a squall line blowing into Phoenix, Arizona on September 27, 2014, shortly before it knocked out power to 70,000 customers. Image credit: Wunderphotographer coolwiththecool2.

October

Disaster 1. Tropical Cyclone Hudhud powered ashore near Visakhapatnam in the Andhra Pradesh state of India on October 12 as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135 mph. With damage estimated at $11 billion, Hudhud was by far the most expensive tropical cyclone in India's history, and their third most expensive weather-related natural disaster, according to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database. However, Hudhud also represents a success story. Due to aggressive efforts to evacuate vulnerable areas, the death toll from Hudhud was held to 68, far below the 9,843 people killed during the similar-strength October 28, 1999 Orissa Cyclone which hit India's coast very close to where Hudhud hit. This MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Hudhud was taken at approximately 1 am EDT October 12, 2014, as the storm was making landfall near Visakhapatnam, India. At the time, Hudhud was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

November

Disaster 1. One of the worst hailstorms ever in Australia’s greater Brisbane metropolitan region hit in late November, injuring at least 12 people and causing $1.25 billion in damage. In this photo, a man surveys the damage to his home in Brisbane on November 28, 2014 following a storm which struck the area on November 27. Photo credit: PATRICK HAMILTON/AFP/Getty Images.

I'll be back with a new post after 11 am Friday, discussing the joint NOAA/NASA press release on whether or not 2014 was the warmest year on record.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 497. ChillinInTheKeys:



$10.00 a year works well too... At least for this site.
Yeah, but this ain't the only site on the web. I live by ad block and click-to-flash. The web would be unbearable with out them, IMO.
Quoting 388. georgevandenberghe:



I have a very simple system that beats 98% of the other ones floating around Vegas.

DON'T GAMBLE.

(Never actually been to Vegas and it ain't on my bucket list]


but the little caesar pool is beautiful...

hydrus...love that this is stuck in my head:
but a good gambler knows not to play the game to long.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm just going to let this hurricane season play out like I did 2014.You'll be less disappointed when you do....


Hopefully the GFS shows some improvements this season.
504. vis0
IF THERE ARE ANY WEATHER ALERTS, SKIP THIS GO TO ALERT COMMENTS OR ALERT PAGES.

     How was i able to predict that Λ^RADAR© had to get galoshes?(meaning it was going to rain in "AVERAGE weather" SE Alabama.  (woof; #426, bark; http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comme nt.html?entrynum=2895&page=9#commenttop )as to the surprise LOW comments i left, that was on Dr. Masters blog, 2 blogbytes back.
        1) 'cause the Seagulls told me (inside joke) for those that saw my "Flock of Seagulls(NATURE)"  VID.
        2) my left knee was hurting. (you yung'ins wait till you can tell weather, by specific pains) BTW, left knee pain to me means 1 of 2 things rain from the east or i'm kneeling on a screw.
        3) The ml-d did not influence the moisture over Texas as it was busy communicating ("sub atom static tele-connecting", if you prefer) to the "surprise LOW" that was "a surprise" to many yet i posted "to look out for that 2nd formation" ~36 hrs BEFORE it formed and gave its direction by stating in forming and heading towards land it has. Why? 'cause it was heading towards zip 10016 which gives any weather formation taping into the 3 ml-d ON settings a 2 times better opportunity to "wrap around itself".    
        But how can a nut like me figure that?
        By using observations & an educated guess via the self taught knowledge of "Galacsics".
        OBS:: For the following crazy words you'll need this graphic:: Notice how in the last ~40 days the trend was for fronts NOT to have LOW form off them as they traversed the USofA.      Why?       'cause the ml-d is having a "playful" tug-o-war with nature.        Nature is sending coalescing energy segments of lower pressures towards Florida, being that there is an El Niño in ENSO west, but ml-d wants to play with these coalescing energy of lower segments (Q-LOWS) and since these Q-LOWS are not strong enough to break the ml-d's tug the ml-d "push-pulls" them toward  the yellow oblate area.     Notice how as the "surprise" Low headed towards the "yellow oblate areas" it was "bubbling " up.  Therefore the moisture over Texas in not being "sub atom static tele-connected" with acted as completely "natural" and had an opportunity to head eastward while using its energy resources to pick up moisture instead of its energy resources being used to attract it towards the yellow ringed areas.
        Does this happen with every storm or front?
        No, it depends on Natures set up,  as of late i've heard nature has millions of set ups/choices in creating weather patterns, Therefore when the next ~2 week anomaly period (2wkAnom) begins & ends, then afterwards they'll be another 2 month period for natural trends to take hold (so on & so on) for the ml-d to play with. That trend is up to nature to pick from natures millions of choices, be it rain from the east, dryness from the north, cold from the north, moisture from the west, snow from the south (HOORAY!!!) washi115 calm down, or any other weather combo nature decides to trend the ml-d will play with.  The next 2wkAnom is coming in early Feb 2015 lets see what happens, remember the ml-d is weakest during these "2wkAnoms, remember what happened during the last "2wkAnom" in Dec 2014. The only time the ml-d loses this playful tug-o-war is during the "2wkAnom" periods and when nature creates weather trends stronger the the ml-d's push-pull settings, those due to THE PRESENT (since late 2009) ml-d settings have to be 500/250 years events which is why i state when TS hitting the USofA/Caribbean , El Niño any catastrophic weather trend towards the USofA TRENDS, be on alert as you'll see 3,4,5 TS hit just 1 state and 2,3,4 TS hit another state or Ca receive that thousand year flooding.   OBTY, as the surprise LOW exits lets see how the moisture over Λ^RADAR© reacts, or would prefer we flip a coin? Could this be a reason why MODEL flip-flop more than politicians? Who knows, going to get pizza and INjoy.
       
        Now back to digging into the "just opened" cap 'n crunch to see what cheap toy can hold your attention before the sugar kicks in.
Quoting 502. WaterWitch11:



but the little caesar pool is beautiful...

hydrus...love that this is stuck in my head:
but a good gambler knows not to play the game to long.
It should stick its real. Thats why casino,s make huge profits , but folks that know the math and the odds walk out with some of their booty..:)
the next thing to come out from Tracker is a a full blown El Nino event in the summer of 2016. what a long long range forecast that will be
Quoting 495. StormTrackerScott:



Euro & Poama models all show atleast a weak El-Nino building this summer. Seems the consensus is around 1C for July for all the models then as you stated diverge greatly after July. Infact the Euro has a depressing forecast for the Atlantic Basin during MJJ months. Not good at all to see this again for the 3rd year in a row.


Neutral enso for 2015 is what i got from my coin flip a minute ago.
Quoting ricderr:
Euro &


come on scott....read the models....what you've shown is saying we're in el nino now that will only grow stronger this summer...you've stated for a few weeks...that el nino will form spring/summer....but you post models for support...that if we are to believe them....show we're actually in el nino now


I have a new motto: Say No to El-Nino.
Quoting 507. Gearsts:

Neutral enso for 2015 is what i got from my coin flip a minute ago.



But how many times was it heads before. ..that affects the odds
Quoting 507. Gearsts:

Neutral enso for 2015 is what i got from my coin flip a minute ago.

He,s incognino.
Quoting 508. WxGuy2014:



I have a new motto: Say No to El-Nino.



Lol
We are going to get a freeze soon here in Central Florida because we've gone so long without one that as each day passes by the odds increase that we will get a freeze. That's my forecast. Book it.
"my left knee was hurting. (you yung'ins wait till you can tell weather, by specific pains) BTW, left knee pain to me means 1 of 2 things rain from the east or i'm kneeling on a screw."

LOL...there are times when this blog is just downright funny
Quoting Gearsts:
Neutral enso for 2015 is what i got from my coin flip a minute ago.


But, but, but we havent had an El Nino in a long time so the chances are very high we will get one because we havent had one in a very long time!!! *sarcasm on :)


starting to move up again!
Snow and rain for End of Weekend for the northeast Jan 15 2015 update 10:08 AM EST
Quoting 510. hydrus:

He,s incognino.
Reported! ;)
Quoting 515. hurricanes2018:



starting to move up again!
lol
Quoting 508. WxGuy2014:



I have a new motto: Say No to El-Nino.



Lol
Quoting 458. hurricanes2018:



its look like a El-Nino to me!!
Looks like a Modaki Nino to me.
All I know is that it has been 29 years since my one and only hole in one. Odds are that as long as I keep playing I'm going to get another one soon.
Quoting 513. LAbonbon:

"my left knee was hurting. (you yung'ins wait till you can tell weather, by specific pains) BTW, left knee pain to me means 1 of 2 things rain from the east or i'm kneeling on a screw."

LOL...there are times when this blog is just downright funny


I can't tell if vis0 is completely off his/her rocker, or is secretly a genius.

"my left knee was hurting. (you yung'ins wait till you can tell weather, by specific pains) BTW, left knee pain to me means 1 of 2 things rain from the east or i'm kneeling on a screw."


If you've only got two possible explanations for a sore knee you're not that old!

BTW of the many terms that make mine sore, weather is not among them so pain PLUS ZERO PREDICTIVE VALUE.

Quoting 525. georgevandenberghe:


"my left knee was hurting. (you yung'ins wait till you can tell weather, by specific pains) BTW, left knee pain to me means 1 of 2 things rain from the east or i'm kneeling on a screw."


If you've only got two possible explanations for a sore knee you're not that old!

BTW of the many terms that make mine sore, weather is not among them so pain PLUS ZERO PREDICTIVE VALUE.


I feel physiological changes when the weather changes...Have for a long time..
Quoting 458. hurricanes2018:



its look like a El-Nino to me!!
Is been showing and El nino for almost 3 years.
Quoting 523. LongIslandBeaches:



I can't tell if vis0 is completely off his/her rocker, or is secretly a genius.
Genius...You can tell by his posts.
Quoting 527. Gearsts:

Is been showing and El nino for almost 3 years.
God thats funny....if you have more, by all means..
El Nino is a Hoax, a Tax scam, Al Gore, theres been no Pacific warming for 18 years.

The data is skewed, the Sun drives the warming,..

: P

Quoting 523. LongIslandBeaches:



I can't tell if vis0 is completely off his/her rocker, or is secretly a genius.
I flipped a coin and it landed on end, so guess all us geniuses are off our rockers. Or maybe it's Chinese New Year, you know eggs on end and all.
Quoting 523. LongIslandBeaches:



I can't tell if vis0 is completely off his/her rocker, or is secretly a genius.


I'd go with genius, with a healthy dose of eccentricity
It is snowing pretty hard in northern Alabama? Did anyone predict this? I'm hoping this makes it over to Greenville but forecast is already 3 to 5 degrees colder than what they expected today for the highs.

Eric
Quoting 531. Barefootontherocks:

I flipped a coin and it landed on end, so guess all us geniuses are off our rockers. Or maybe it's Chinese New Year, you know eggs on end and all.
The position of the Sun and moon may increase the likelihood of such phenomenon. Condition of coin as well....personally all three could work in tandem to aid or ail the flip entirely..

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
849 AM CST THU JAN 15 2015

...SLEET WILL CAUSE SLICK TRAVEL ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-160000-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0001.150115T1449Z-150116T0000Z/
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRA NKLIN TN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLORENCE...MUSCLE SHOALS...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE...DE CATUR...
GUNTERSVILLE...SCOTTSBORO...FORT PAYNE...CULLMAN...LYNCHBURG...
FAYETTEVILLE...WINCHESTER
849 AM CST THU JAN 15 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...SLEET OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND LASTING UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UNDER A HALF AN INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION.

* IMPACTS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY ROADS. EVEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE
SLICK TRAVEL DUE TO THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET MEANS PERIODS OF SLEET ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SLEET MAY CAUSE DRIVING TO BECOME EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS...SO BE PREPARED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.
&&
12z Euro buries the Mid-Atlantic in snow.
Quoting 515. hurricanes2018:



starting to move up again!

That looks more like the weeks crude oil price graph, they keep saying, "starting to move up again."

Its going to rain in Spain they say here, first rain in about 6 weeks for us if it dosnt evaporate on the way down.
this morning east haven rain on sunday with a temp around 48F NOW!! rain for east haven with temp only 41F
Quoting 532. LAbonbon:



I'd go with genius, with a healthy dose of eccentricity
Almost every genius I have met was that..Excluding one , who was a intelligent donkey of sorts..:)
Quoting 526. hydrus:

I feel physiological changes when the weather changes...Have for a long time..

Its all to do with Presure!


adding more snow to this storm on sunday night to monday!!
Quoting 537. PlazaRed:


That looks more like the weeks crude oil price graph, they keep saying, "starting to move up again."

Its going to rain in Spain they say here, first rain in about 6 weeks for us if it dosnt evaporate on the way down.


Spain could be in for a lot of rain and wind in the next two weeks. The jet stream loop that has been bringing stormy weather to the UK is predicted to move south to Spain, and it looks like it gets 'stuck' there. Click on 'animate' on this moving graphic.

Link
Quoting 492. Drakoen:

La Nino? Is this a new phenomena i'm unaware of?

It isnt new...Not according to Johns Hopkins University anyway
Quoting 536. Drakoen:

12z Euro buries the Mid-Atlantic in snow.

Lol.It just showed a GLC last run.I say I'll peak interest when we're 48 hours out...I remember the December 21-22nd snow storm that never happened...
Quoting 529. hydrus:

God thats funny....if you have more, by all means..
But is true!
Quoting 542. Barefootontherocks:

Hi hydrus, Just plain magic for which mankind as yet has no explanation. Yes, a lot of variables may come into consideration.

BTW, Did the lights go out in Georgia? (So to sprake) I don't see vis0 posts now. Is it my mind's eye, or have all this member's comments disappeared???!!
Sometimes ones posts are remove...I cannot say why...it is forbidden..

Quoting 545. washingtonian115:

Lol.It just showed a GLC last run.I say I'll peak interest when we're 48 hours out...I remember the December 21-22nd snow storm that never happened...
Yes, we have seen too often in the long-range where the ECMWF overamplifies a storm only to trend towards the less enthusiastic GFS. If the GFS continues to go out to sea I would be worried. Nonetheless, the 500mb wavelengths look favorable...for now especially on the GFS and ECMWF ensembles locking in the ECONUS trough.
Quoting 547. hydrus:

Sometimes ones posts are remove...I cannot say why...it is forbidden..
Probably vis0 knows The Art of Becoming Invisible.
Quoting 546. Gearsts:

But is true!
I know. Thats whats funny. If it wasnt true , it wouldnt be funny..I have a new way to forecast Nino..When its official , I forecast its progress , not whether or not it will occur.. Its like predicting where water molecules will end up when rowing my boat for a day...:)



one more cold day on friday night look at the temp in the northeast!!
Ireland calls him "Rachel", Germans call her "Hermann", lol - no wonder with this hermaphroditic personality the latest European windstorm (and hopefully the last for a while) got an intricate yin-yang structure. Worth a little loop I think (and good evening!):


Source: Eumetsat.


source: wetteronline.de

500 homes face night without power
Irish Independent, Published 15/01/2015 | 08:36
Hundreds of families will remain without power overnight after a fierce Atlantic storm crashed into Ireland, blacking out homes, grounding flights, halting ferry crossings and delaying countless rail and road commuters. ...

Thousands still without power as Rachel eases

BBC News:
Man dies after tree falls on van during NI storms

Gales could hit 80mph again in Wales warn forecasters


Top gales in British Isles today: 178km/h (= 111mph) was the highest recorded.
Quoting 537. PlazaRed:


That looks more like the weeks crude oil price graph, they keep saying, "starting to move up again."

Its going to rain in Spain they say here, first rain in about 6 weeks for us if it dosnt evaporate on the way down.


Will that rain (if it hits) be falling mainly on the plain?
Quoting 543. yonzabam:



Spain could be in for a lot of rain and wind in the next two weeks. The jet stream loop that has been bringing stormy weather to the UK is predicted to move south to Spain, and it looks like it gets 'stuck' there. Click on 'animate' on this moving graphic.

Link

I was about to link somthing like that but at surface levels.

Link

If you look at the size of this system, it reaches from north Africa to mid Norway, probably about 2000 miles long.
A proper whopper!

Heres the oil Graph for a change.
The lower it goes the higher the polution graph will go as people can aford once again to use more of the stuff.
Gas prices have crashed to about $5 a gallon in Europe as gas hits about 1.10 Euros a liter or about 4 Euros a gallon.
Way down from about $8 a gallon last year.

Link
Quoting 549. Barefootontherocks:

Probably vis0 knows The Art of Becoming Invisible.
We are made up of atoms....which are in fact mostly empty space....Next he will tell us that Quantum Foam is really George Burns bubble bath.
Quoting 550. hydrus:

I know. Thats whats funny. If it wasnt true , it wouldnt be funny..I have a new way to forecast Nino..When its official , I forecast its progress , not whether or not it will occur.. Its like predicting where water molecules will end up when rowing my boat for a day...:)
Pretty sure that's what Levi was describing the other night. We know El Nino will happen again. So do the models. The when is unpredictable. Well named, the capricious little kid, El Nino.
Quebec City airport reportedly had a new record all-time coldest temperature of -36.7 C / -34.1 F yesterday. (Scroll past the video in the link.)

Link
Quoting 540. PlazaRed:


Its all to do with Pressure!
Quoting 555. hydrus:

We are made up of atoms....which are in fact mostly empty space....Next he will tell us that Quantum Foam is really George Burns bubble bath.
You know, quantum foam takes us beyond space and time, and that IS where George Burns went. Who is to say bubble bath is not the answer?
Quoting 553. PedleyCA:



Will that rain (if it hits) be falling mainly on the plain?


Here's the link to the rain!

Link

It will pass over Spain diagonally and the 2 main plains will get a lot of it.
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the northern coasts and the Sierra de Grazalema which are both far from plains, being mainly consisting of high mountains a bit like you have the US Sierra Nevadas.
We of course also have the orrigonal Sierra Nevadas east of Granada as well.
Snowy Mountains it means in English.
Quoting 555. hydrus:

We are made up of atoms....which are in fact mostly empty space....Next he will tell us that Quantum Foam is really George Burns bubble bath.


Here it is from a physics point of view:--

Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle

Link

It seems that even though things might appear to be there!
Possibly they are not!
Quoting 551. hurricanes2018:




one more cold day on friday night look at the temp in the northeast!!


cold night coming soon!!
Quoting 561. PlazaRed:



Here it is from a physics point of view:--

Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle

Link

It seems that even though things might appear to be there!
Possibly they are not!
I knew that one. If the Quantum Foam thing pans out , the uncertainty thing will have to be rethought..:)
Quoting 563. hydrus:

I knew that one. If the Quantum Foam thing pans out , the uncertainty thing will have to be rethought..:)

There will be no rumour in the truth!
Quoting 564. PlazaRed:


There will be no rumour in the truth!
Truth has infinite variability.
;)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BANSI (05-20142015)
22:00 PM RET January 15 2015
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi (940 hPa) located at 18.2S 63.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 65 NM in the northern semi-circle.

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the northeastern quadrant.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the northwestern quadrant.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 19.6S 65.3E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 21.7S 67.0E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 24.0S 70.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 24.9S 76.4E - 80 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
As expected, Bansi is experiencing a new intensification phasis. It has globally tracked eastwards until 1400z then recurved east southeastwards after that. This late track's inflexion is a relatively good news for Rodrigues island with a closest point approach at about 100 km or more from the shoreline at the end of this night.

Bansi is forecast to accelerate progressively on this east southeastwards then southeastwards track, under the steering influence of a near equatorial ridge and of a ridge building eastward, in the mid to high levels. The available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for this track.

On this track, the system should keep on with favorable upper level environment for this night, with low vertical wind shear, and good poleward outflow. On Friday, Bansi should progress south of the upper level ridge axis, and an upper level trough should come closer the system from the southwest. The upper level westerly wind shear should increase. Owing to the lowering of the oceanic heat potential on the system track round 25.0S, Bansi is likely to become a post-tropical hybrid system from Sunday. However, the maximum wind speed is likely to remain strong within the low level circulation.

Therefore, the inhabitants of Rodrigues island (increasing threat with severe weather conditions for the next night) should closely monitor the progress of this dangerous system.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20142015
22:00 PM RET January 15 2015
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 06R (994 hPa) located at 19.3S 42.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots

Near Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 19.6S 43.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 20.4S 44.9E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)
48 HRS 21.6S 49.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS 22.0S 52.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
===================
System keeps on intensifying and under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge in its north, it is expected to track generally east southeastward within the next days.

On this forecast track, for the next 24 hours, the low level convergence is good while the system is situated under the northern extremity of an upper level trough with a rather weak vertical wind shear. It is difficult to determine the impact of this trough for the evolution of the system, but it should favor the convection and a good divergence southeastward.

So this system should intensify until its landfall over the western Madagascar shoreline expected on Friday afternoon or evening.The uncertainty is high for intensity forecast before the landfall.

The mid level circulation should resist to the crossing path over Madagascar and the low level circulation is likely to develop oversea east of Madagascar on Saturday. Environmental conditions are not expected to be enough favorable for further important intensification, owing to a persistent upper level westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear aloft. But even, a high uncertainty exists for intensity and track forecast at this term.
Quoting 563. hydrus:
I knew that one. If the Quantum Foam thing pans out , the uncertainty thing will have to be rethought..:)

Here's some quantum foam for you, guys:


And here some Rachel foam:

15.01.2015: It was a rough out here on Ramsey today. Here is a short montage to hopefully give a flavour of what it was like. Wind was gusting 60 mph at time (Force 11).
Poor dog at 0:25, lol. Video is from the Isle of Man, I guess. BBL
Lake Okeechobee discharges begin Friday to the St. Lucie Estuary
According to the Corps, water levels at Lake Okeechobee have reached 15 feet. They’re already discharging south and west of the lake but it says the water level isn’t dropping fast enough.
The Corps say it prefers the lake level to be at about 12.5 feet at the beginning of June.
Link
Cyclone Warning Class IV in effect for Rodrigues

Cyclonic conditions prevalent on Rodrigues Island.
Quoting 568. SFLWeatherman:

Lake Okeechobee discharges begin Friday to the St. Lucie Estuary
According to the Corps, water levels at Lake Okeechobee have reached 15 feet. They%u2019re already discharging south and west of the lake but it says the water level isn%u2019t dropping fast enough.
The Corps say it prefers the lake level to be at about 12.5 feet at the beginning of June.
Link


Not surprised as water levels here in Orlando area this January are the highest I've seen here since January 1997. Also remember the Kissimmee River near Orlando feeds Lake O. Many areas saw 60" to 70" of rain last year on the northside of Orlando.

I am also sure that they are seeing the Outlook going forward the next several months showing above average precip. So if anything water levels will continue to rise.

GFS thru day 10.



Quoting 564. PlazaRed:


There will be no rumour in the truth!
And the likelihood of a omnipotent and ubiquitous supreme intelligence will not be explained away. Not easily anyway...I enjoy it when someone tells me that everything we see happened by chance or coincidence.
Quoting 571. tampabaymatt:





Earlier the forecast was mid 60's for highs in the Tampa Bay area and 10% precip today and 30% tonight with 0.05 or less precip possible.

That forecast was definitely a bust, instead it's 50's for highs and looks more like 70-80% with some light to maybe moderate rains this evening. Nothing special but any rain is good this time of year.
Quoting 573. Jedkins01:




Earlier the forecast was mid 60's for highs in the Tampa Bay area and 10% precip today and 30% tonight with 0.05 or less precip possible.

That forecast was definitely a bust, instead it's 50's for highs and looks more like 70-80% with probably 0.25 accumulation from some light to maybe moderate rains this evening.




I'm just excited for high pressure to move in so we can finally clear out the skies and see the sun!
when talking about seasonal forecasts....i myself...would look at a three month forecast rather than a ten day model..not that either will pan out.....

Quoting 575. tampabaymatt:





I'm just excited for high pressure to move in so we can finally clear out the skies and see the sun!


Only problem is GFS moves the rain back in on Tuesday thru next Friday. Forecast maybe changing for our region for next week if the GFS pans out.

Rather chilly across the northern half of Florida today. Even down here we've been in the 60s most of the day.
Quoting 474. washingtonian115:

I have installed ad block plus and have since installed it for about a month now.The nonsense ads on here and other websites have stopped.I have also noticed that my computer is faster as well.


How much is ad block? I pay only $10.00 a YEAR for non ads here. It works for me.
Quoting 572. hydrus:

And the likelihood of a omnipotent and ubiquitous supreme intelligence will not be explained away. Not easily anyway...I enjoy it when someone tells me that everything we see happened by chance or coincidence.


I saw a quote the other day, which said that the chances of life happening randomly was less than if a tornado went through a junk yard and after its passing there was a fully functionable 747 sitting on the ground assembeled by it.

Or according to Wiki:-
The chance that higher life forms might have emerged in this way is comparable with the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junk-yard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein. Fred Hoyle, Hoyle on evolution, Nature, Vol. 294, No. 5837 (November 12, 1981), p. 105
Quoting 576. ricderr:

when talking about seasonal forecasts....i myself...would look at a three month forecast rather than a ten day model..not that either will pan out.....




That area of above average precip across the SW US looks suspect as something remarkable would have to happen for the pattern to change across the SW US to allow above average precip into that area.
This is interesting.....Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts from AER....Link


Not sure what the NWS is thinking with a 20% rain chance for tonight.
That area of above average precip across the SW US looks suspect as something remarkable would have to happen for the pattern to change across the SW US to allow above average precip into that area.


well..you might want to rethink that...as places such as phoenix.....with half the month to go....has already beat there january average by one and a half times normal
same thing in some places of the los angeles area.....over twice as much rain than their january average...with a half month to go
Quoting 586. ricderr:

That area of above average precip across the SW US looks suspect as something remarkable would have to happen for the pattern to change across the SW US to allow above average precip into that area.


well..you might want to rethink that...as places such as phoenix.....with half the month to go....has already beat there january average by one and a half times normal


Pheonix isn't all the SW US Ric. California is really dry and as many have said on here the situation may actually be worse this year compared to last year if this persistent ridge doesn't breakdown over the next month because the Dry Season is fast approaching now.

Snow pack across California is in really bad shape right now.

Here are some tweets from people that "actually" live there.

Daniel Swain @Weather_West
Pattern of extreme West Coast ridge/deep Eastern trough looking a lot like last winter
. #cawx #cadrought #cawater pic.twitter.com/Iwx3rWhQtj

Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus
San Francisco hasn't recorded a drop of rain so far in 2015. On pace for driest January on record. pic.twitter.com/QE6nOS5eCkLink

Anthony Farnell @AnthonyFarnell
The 10-15 day ECMWF ensembles look extreme with blocking over Alaska and cross polar flow of arctic air into NA. pic.twitter.com/KjDQG2QmiB

Daniel Swain @Weather_West
Great visualization of California's total reservoir storage via http://front.dadaviz.com/media/viz_images/how-much -water-does-california-have-1421136099.11-8979701. pngLink
Quoting 586. ricderr:

That area of above average precip across the SW US looks suspect as something remarkable would have to happen for the pattern to change across the SW US to allow above average precip into that area.


well..you might want to rethink that...as places such as phoenix.....with half the month to go....has already beat there january average by one and a half times normal

The rainfall in Arizona according to this chart is about 8 inches anually.
While beating any part of it by 1.5 times may sound a lot and possibly resulting 12 inches of rainfall anually it will probably not lead to many major problems.

Link
Quoting 577. StormTrackerScott:



Only problem is GFS moves the rain back in on Tuesday thru next Friday. Forecast maybe changing for our region for next week if the GFS pans out.




Local mets and the NWS don't seem to be latching on to a Gulf low crossing FL next week. Something to keep an eye on though.
Quoting 576. ricderr:
when talking about seasonal forecasts....i myself...would look at a three month forecast rather than a ten day model..not that either will pan out.....



I hope this pans out, but it certainly doesn't look promising in the short term.
Quoting 585. tampabaymatt:



Not sure what the NWS is thinking with a 20% rain chance for tonight.


They have 70% now along with colder afternoon temps.

It's weird because the morning forecast had only a slight chance of rain and had the Tampa Bay area with highs in the mid to upper 60's and partly cloudy. Instead it's 50's for highs, thick overcast and fog/mist followed by a rainy evening. Seems someone was asleep at the wheel for the morning forecast lol, the afternoon package in contrast looks what I normally would expect.
Quoting 575. tampabaymatt:





I'm just excited for high pressure to move in so we can finally clear out the skies and see the sun!


Same here, it's been straight overcast since Monday here, I haven't even seen a sliver of sunlight since Monday. Worse is that today is the only day out of all the cloudy days this week where we've actually had rain, and it's not fun rain, just cold, steady, light rain, a Portland OR kind of day.

Rain is always good for the ground and plants, I just prefer the heavy stuff, and a warmer rain as well.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST THU JAN 15 2015

PRC005-071-099-131-152200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0001.150115T1856Z-150115T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-
256 PM AST THU JAN 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA AND ISABELA

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 254 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AND RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS.
The upcoming pattern should feature the most favorable confluence of teleconnections that we've seen so far this winter season, with a negative EPO, negative AO, negative NAO, and positive PNA. The end result should be significant troughing across the East United States to end January, with the potential for record cold if current modelling pans out. In addition, the pattern should be favorable for significant snow somewhere across the East; details will be ironed out as time progresses.
Quoting 543. yonzabam:



Spain could be in for a lot of rain and wind in the next two weeks. The jet stream loop that has been bringing stormy weather to the UK is predicted to move south to Spain, and it looks like it gets 'stuck' there. Click on 'animate' on this moving graphic.

Link


Yay! The weather is set to get quite cold for the UK for at least the next week or so, with chances of sleet/snow on Friday and then a bigger threat of snow on Sunday evening for me! It'll be interesting to see how long it will last. Hope I'll see even just a snow flurry.
ASCAT of 93S




Bansi
Another gloomy day in Lake Worth/West Palm. Heavy showers right now. Clearing later, and then nice seasonable temperatures. Overall, I love it!

Quoting 589. PlazaRed:


The rainfall in Arizona according to this chart is about 8 inches anually.
While beating any part of it by 1.5 times may sound a lot and possibly resulting 12 inches of rainfall anually it will probably not lead to many major problems.

Link
Quoting 589. PlazaRed:


The rainfall in Arizona according to this chart is about 8 inches anually.
While beating any part of it by 1.5 times may sound a lot and possibly resulting 12 inches of rainfall anually it will probably not lead to many major problems.

Link


Plaza...I agree....i'm not saying that things will be bad....only that at this short juncture...The cpc seasonal forecast of above average precip for the southwest is panning out...
NWS in Melbourne just raised the rain chances here in ECFL to 60% from 30% earlier in the day. Thats for tonight.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Not sure what the NWS is thinking with a 20% rain chance for tonight.
Quoting 601. GeoffreyWPB:

Another gloomy day in Lake Worth/West Palm. Heavy showers right now. Clearing later, and then nice seasonable temperatures. Overall, I love it!




Only a south Floridian would think 78 for a high with some clouds is a gloomy day ;)

We had rain all day and highs in the 40's up here in the northern part of the state, this is real gloominess, lol.

Btw, I literally lol'd here when I saw the "chilly" icon for the day that says 70 for a high and 58 for a low, and "cool" for a high of 75 and a low of 63 lol.
Quoting 601. GeoffreyWPB:

Another gloomy day in Lake Worth/West Palm. Heavy showers right now. Clearing later, and then nice seasonable temperatures. Overall, I love it!




About the same down here where it goes from gloomy, to sunshine and summer like humidity, and back to gloomy and scattered showers. Although our temps will be a bit higher than you, I welcome the next few days!


This is a picture of a sunset that I captured from the 4th of this month which I thought was pretty neat.

Quoting 581. Pipejazz:



How much is ad block? I pay only $10.00 a YEAR for non ads here. It works for me.
Free.

This is a very nice week, but not a drop of rain in sight.
CWG's two week outlook..
Link
A nasty day. And it's getting worse! 37/45 with rain setting in after 3:30 p.m. Rain falling more quickly than I expected, 0.07" so far.

Quoting 609. PedleyCA:


This is a very nice week, but not a drop of rain in sight.

Try this Ped.
Only 1.16 am here and we are about to get at least a good hours rain.
First for about 6 weeks.

Link

Well good night and I hope everybody gets their wishes.
its still snowing in boston!!
Northeast Storm May Bring Heavy Rain, Snow, Wind, Coastal Flooding Early Next Week



where is this storm going??
Good night hello from once again very balmy Germany, enjoying the advection of warm air from the southwest due to windstorm "Rachel-Hermann" (explanation post 552). The system should bring cold air with its back side on Sunday though. According to Estofex, southeastern France tomorrow is in danger of excessive rains (which they've suffered very often last summer and autumn already). Here you can see why (currently our Plazared in southwestern Spain gets it):



--------------------------------

And here some news which affect all of us, and unfortunately bad ones:

Nearly half the systems crucial to stability of planet compromised
PhysOrg, 3 hours ago

Nevertheless, a good night from old Europe which currently has a bunch of different issues to tackle to boot.
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the East Coast late this weekend and into early next week bringing rain and snow into the Northeast.There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the storm track and the amount of cold air that will be in place, which will greatly impact the location of the rain and snow line.

However, there is general agreement that a low pressure system will deepen rapidly along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. Among Thursday's midday computer model forecasts, the ECMWF (European) model takes a track farther west while the GFS (American) model has the track of the low pressure farther east off the Northeast coast.
Rainy Forecast
A low-pressure system is expected to move up the East Coast Sunday into Monday as an arctic cold front moves through southern Canada and into the Northeast on Monday. How and where exactly all the pieces come together will determine where the rain-snow line is located and where the heaviest precipitation will occur.

This setup will bring light snow to parts of the Ohio Valley, Appalachians and the interior Northeast, with rain closer to the coast.

Rain will fall in the Southeast, especially early on Sunday and is expected to spread northward into the big cities of the Northeast.
We're looking at a lovely weekend coming up here in beautiful New Smyrna Beach .
Happy New Year everyone; I hope you made at least one resolution...what have you got to lose? lol
Quoting 612. PlazaRed:

Try this Ped.
Only 1.16 am here and we are about to get at least a good hours rain.
First for about 6 weeks.

Link

Well good night and I hope everybody gets their wishes.


This is your rainy season too, right? I hope we both get more rain.
Very last post with a greeting of tropical winds (from Mekkhala?) for the pope, lol:


As he emerged from the plane, a strong tropical breeze sent his zucchetto, or skullcap, flying off his head.

From another report (The Australian):
Separately, the pope said a much-anticipated encyclical on the environment likely will come out in June or July. It will be the first papal encyclical on the issue, and any strong stand by the pope on the question of whether climate change is provoked by human activity is likely to be divisive.
The Argentinian-born pontiff has frequently warned against the despoiling of the planet and has expressed concern over the impact of rising tides and natural catastrophes on poor countries. As a result, some expect him to endorse the idea that human activity is a cause of global warming. If so, the Catholic Church could give a major boost those who believe human activity has caused climate change
In the news conference, the pope sidestepped the question, saying only that he believes that man "has overexploited nature" and making reference to concerns raised by Catholic leaders regarding the deforestation of the Amazon.
The pope is hoping to release the encyclical before the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in November, saying that past efforts to find international agreement on ways to combat climate change "lacked courage."
"Let's hope that in Paris, they are braver," he said.
Environmental issues are likely to emerge during the pope's tour of the Philippines, parts of which were devastated by a typhoon in November 2013. A major highlight of the Philippines visit will be a Mass scheduled Saturday in Tacloban, an area that suffered the largest number of casualties.
ECMWF EPS 12z. Didn't budge from 00z.


Just more eye candy for now--18z GFS gives me less than an inch of snow next weekend and then an ice storm (deja vu?) as we round out the month.



Euro snow totals.Lol.
Link
Wow, uncanny. That has the identical swath of ice across SC as prior winter. Deja vu indeed.

Let's hope not.

Quoting 624. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just more eye candy for now--18z GFS gives me less than an inch of snow next weekend and then an ice storm (deja vu?) as we round out the month.




You'll get at least 3x those amounts. lol

Quoting 625. washingtonian115:

Euro snow totals.Lol.
Link
Well as I figured the rain came in during the predawn hours and exited around 2pm CDT, but rather then the high temps reach the projected 52 it only warmed to 45 across SW Alabama, now the rain moves completely out hopefully the skies will clear tomorrow and set up for a beautiful weekend.
630. vis0
Am still reading these for a 3rd time to get an opinion (specially as to Human harm of sea life, my 1st uneducated/article  unread 2 cent opinion is take care of yourself first the rest will follow), but some might find it an interesting read(s)::

Unprecedented Level of Human Harm to Sea Life Is Forecast (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/science/earth/ study-raises-alarm-for-health-of-ocean-life.html) ... i blame that wxu member whom earlier said he places his feet in the water, when fishing ...POLLUTION! :-b

Sea Level Rise Accelerating Faster Than Thought (http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/s ea-level-rise-accelerating-faster-than-thought-150 115.htm)  ...i once sent "The Onion" to write a story that the reason the sea is rising is more people are jumping into the ocean at beaches all at once, watch a real news group pick that up as real.

Terra MODIS imagery of Cyclone Bansi taken just after 6z (1am EST) this morning:

Mekkhala

Quoting 621. washingtonian115:





Seriously? More below average temps? Nooooo!
Quoting 630. vis0:

Am still reading these for a 3rd time to get an opinion (specially as to Human harm of sea life, my 1st uneducated/article  unread 2 cent opinion is take care of yourself first the rest will follow), but some might find it an interesting read(s)::

Unprecedented Level of Human Harm to Sea Life Is Forecast (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/science/earth/ study-raises-alarm-for-health-of-ocean-life.html) ... i blame that wxu member whom earlier said he places his feet in the water, when fishing ...POLLUTION! :-b

Sea Level Rise Accelerating Faster Than Thought (http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/s ea-level-rise-accelerating-faster-than-thought-150 115.htm)  ...i once sent "The Onion" to write a story that the reason the sea is rising is more people are jumping into the ocean at beaches all at once, watch a real news group pick that up as real.


That's funny. And maybe is true, because there are many more men on Earth now, and most of them love the beaches.
Quoting 634. TimTheWxMan:




Seriously? More below average temps? Nooooo!
You can enjoy Spring and summer.Meanwhile I would like to enjoy winter for what it is winter .
Over west Madagascar forms the Tropical Storm Chedza.
Quoting WeatherBAC:
Well as I figured the rain came in during the predawn hours and exited around 2pm CDT, but rather then the high temps reach the projected 52 it only warmed to 45 across SW Alabama, now the rain moves completely out hopefully the skies will clear tomorrow and set up for a beautiful weekend.
Hey! I'm the one who said it would quit by 2:00. Started here about 9:00 and was done by 4:00, so almost exactly two hours behind you. I got 0.21" though, double my estimate. The flooding has subsided and now that the sky is starting to clear, it's getting foggy. My high was 45 and the low was 43, which is the current temperature, so it was cooler than I thought it would be. There was some snow in far north Alabama but I didn't see any reports of more than an inch. Some nice dry air coming in by tomorrow morning, and we should finally have a sunny day. Looks like the weekend will be sunny and nice. The next chance for some excitement isn't until next weekend, way too far out to make a guess now.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29 2015

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE WEEK-2
FORECAST IS ISSUED WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO ALLOW MORE ARCTIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE CONUS WITH TIME.
THE 528 DM HEIGHT LINE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MANUAL BLEND FINDS
ITS ORIGIN OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN, A SURE SIGN OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD PATTERN.
IN FACT, THE FORECAST PATTERN BEARS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE EXTREME COLD
PERIODS THAT HAVE OCCASIONALLY IMPACTED PARTS OF THE CONUS OVER THE PAST TWO
WINTERS.


THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN, THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
GFS REMAINS FARTHER EAST WITH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA, AND SO HAS A MILDER SOLUTION OVER THAT REGION. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLDER SOLUTION WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED FARTHER WEST, SIMILAR TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HERE
AGAIN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED, SINCE IT HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
TELECONNECTIONS, ANALOGS, AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS GENERALLY DRIER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS COMPARED
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, DUE TO SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. SOME SLIGHT PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST
EXTENDING TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE MEAN FRONTAL
ZONE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODEL DISAGREEMENT
NEAR THE ROCKIES.
Quoting 640. Barefootontherocks:

Sorry. What's-his-butt, the rodent character, ain't gonna see a shadow of a shadow two weeks and 3 days from tomorrow.
One day they're going to catch Phil on a bad note while waking him from his sleep..
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Sorry. What's-his-butt, the rodent character, ain't gonna see a shadow of a shadow two weeks and 3 days from tomorrow.




watch what you say please
I mentioned it was going to get awfully cold my last post at the end of this month. Here is what the NWS is now saying.

https://scontent-a-atl.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/ v/t1.0-9/10906478_781491708554249_5085108467360132 091_n.png?oh=0c423b4cde9604bea3c631caf7d40e6a&oe=5 561FCCE
Quoting 626. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wow, uncanny. That has the identical swath of ice across SC as prior winter. Deja vu indeed.

Let's hope not.





I love the bottom map of the snow over Greenville and the upstate but I don't care for the ice on my neighbors to the south and east of me in Columbia and the low country and Georgia either. Having that map in all blue would be better.
It also looks like a major winter storm for toward the later part of the month effecting the East,southeast.....
take that ;>

KWS NWS discussion today ... semi foggy and coolish today however

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1877...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 87 DEGREES. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR JANUARY 15 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
649. vis0

     For those thinking, but vis0 said as long as the ml-d is ON during these present 2 month trend Ca. or El Niño type plumes of moisture have little chance to fall over Ca.
     For those that read my previous comments on the Dr. Masters blog, see if you remember that if a LOW/FRONT is interacting with the ml-d all other areas being influenced directly or indirectly will act more "natural" less ml-d influenced as the ml-d "influence" is busy with a LOW close by, therefore its influence further away is lowered.   
     Examples:: Saw Moisture in SE Alabama, saw El Niño Modoki  like out west, check central Canada, check Central Atlantic & check Northern parts of South America from yesterday till tomorrow to see if sudden changes occurred in those areas, then those areas revert back to the recent 26+ day trend.

 As i've posted i stopped looking for anyone interested in the ml-d.   i'm now in "just study for myself as long as i can" mode and enjoy the freedom of not having a weight on my shoulder of taking care of such a dangerous (in the wrong hands) device and trying to create Clues in every comment blog i'd type. i'll still reply once in a while to comments on the ml-d or my wacky theories as not to be rude. 
 
 As to sponge Bob Quantum pants, ican see that but i state Quantum are temporary bridges that connect the two MAIN dimensions of Physics & Galacsics, so the foam (sponge) would be more like shaving foam, and the foam in dissolving is what allows the spaghetti theory to have motion, ahh i think  i lost most at vis0 said.
  Later (cause of a funny comment of invisibility)  how 5 times since 2004 i've had people bump into me (3 in Mad Sq. park, 2 in Central Park) as if i was invisible/not there, no joke it freaked me out)...no i was not playing "baby peek-a-boo at the time."
 
 Lets get back to weather, its more fun (as long as people keep their senses open to whats going on.)
Something big brewing on the GFS 00z. Super amplified.
0.12" today.

Quoting 651. DonnieBwkGA:



Does it have hops in it or is it just hopping?
Would make portions of SC, NC, and Virginia very happy. A storm that strong should turn up the coast more as the H5 trough tilts negative. GFS trending toward the ECMWF.
Quoting Drakoen:

Would make portions of SC, NC, and Virginia very happy. A storm that strong should turn up the coast more as the H5 trough tilts negative. GFS trending toward the ECMWF.


But the most important question---would it make coastal Georgia happy?
Quoting 643. Tazmanian:





watch what you say please
Some mod(s) removed my first reply (at 646) to explain my words to you. Sorry if you missed it.
...
Oh. I see the original comment is also removed but not the quote of it by wash or Taz..
Quoting 640. Barefootontherocks:

Sorry. What's-his-butt, the rodent character, ain't gonna see a shadow of a shadow two weeks and 3 days from tomorrow.
...end quote...
What's going on mod(s)? Is "what's-his-butt" not an acceptable word here?

Add: 10:56 pm: Surely my Punxsutawney Phil comment was on topic, or did you just not get it either?

Quoting 654. DonnieBwkGA:



But the most important question---would it make coastal Georgia happy?
If rain makes you happy, absolutely!
Quoting Drakoen:

If rain makes you happy, absolutely!


Heavy rain, yes. Heavy snow, even better.

Quoting 658. DonnieBwkGA:



Heavy rain, yes. Heavy snow, even better.
Post above you should suffice.
660. flsky
And to you, too. Weekend temps are too cool for me. Can't wait for a warm-up.
Quoting 618. Chicklit:

We're looking at a lovely weekend coming up here in beautiful New Smyrna Beach .
Happy New Year everyone; I hope you made at least one resolution...what have you got to lose? lol
Quoting 639. TropicalAnalystwx13:

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29 2015

DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE WEEK-2
FORECAST IS ISSUED WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO ALLOW MORE ARCTIC AIR TO INFLUENCE THE CONUS WITH TIME.
THE 528 DM HEIGHT LINE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MANUAL BLEND FINDS
ITS ORIGIN OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN, A SURE SIGN OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD PATTERN.
IN FACT, THE FORECAST PATTERN BEARS MANY SIMILARITIES TO THE EXTREME COLD
PERIODS THAT HAVE OCCASIONALLY IMPACTED PARTS OF THE CONUS OVER THE PAST TWO
WINTERS.


THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN, THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
GFS REMAINS FARTHER EAST WITH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA, AND SO HAS A MILDER SOLUTION OVER THAT REGION. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLDER SOLUTION WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED FARTHER WEST, SIMILAR TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HERE
AGAIN THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS FAVORED, SINCE IT HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE
TELECONNECTIONS, ANALOGS, AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS GENERALLY DRIER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS COMPARED
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, DUE TO SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. SOME SLIGHT PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST
EXTENDING TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS BASED ON THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE MEAN FRONTAL
ZONE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODEL DISAGREEMENT
NEAR THE ROCKIES.

Challenge Accepted.
Because I won't have to deal with it :)

You're welcome.
Quoting 657. Tornado6042008X:





Too bad to be false. Long range forecasts are the best as we all see them as mirages of something grand promised to us by the weather gods only to have your dreams crushed six hours later when the next model run comes out. Boy do I love weather :)

Good evening and goodnight everyone.
GGEM 00z is similar to the GFS 00z. Will be interesting to see what the ECMWF has.
Big warm up here in Central Illinois this week end .. after a week with below freezing temperatures .. expecting highs in the 40's Saturday ..
665. vis0

Quoting 641. washingtonian115:

One day they're going to catch Phil on a bad note while waking him from his sleep..
     i was told once that some whom handle the "phils" on the day of ground, hogging for the camera, wear shark gloves.
     NO NOT THESENEITHERTHESEoh yeah, butchers gloves. (since one has to click on PLAY ICON, which appears as one hovers cursor over image (upper right) the "timing" joke, that each gif has a blank 1st frame to delay the actual images appearance as one read the words won't work.  Its the thought that counts...i wonder if i can pay a mortgage with a thought? Apology for being the reason the toast burnt in waiting for GIFs to show up.
666. vis0

Quoting 643. Tazmanian:





watch what you say please
Yup, your 100% correct, we'll be watching it weather we like it or not. Isn't that Neilsons AD phrase?

667. vis0
DOOMED ...Not sure of the source Pioneer News, but its an interesting topic though the articles for such an important  subject (i think , though some animals might be rejoicing)  is so short, though for the length that "man" has been on this planet its about the right size. Anyone remember Carl Sagan showing Earth's period of Exsitance as a Gregorian Calaner and man has been on it, the last few seconds, of the last hour, of the date (Dec 31) ...i wonder it that was a leap year?  If one prefers the non evolution Calendar then "man" has been on it from either before the calendar was made to ∞.
the mts and foothills of nc havent seen much winter weather. its been all below normal for the most part. wonder why its been so quiet? no el nino to pump out some impressive gulf lows?
42 deg. F
That's the temperature of the water coming out of my faucet, and it will likely drop to 38 within the next month.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Storm Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHEDZA (06-20142015)
10:00 AM RET January 16 2015
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Chedza (986 hPa) located at 19.5S 43.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS


Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 20.3S 44.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS 21.6S 47.1E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)
48 HRS 21.7S 51.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS 22.6S 52.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
===================
The first visible and microwave imagery of this morning indicate that the low center is located more to the west that previously estimated at 00z. ASCAT swath of last night shows a monsoon depression type wind pattern. Recent improvement of the cloud pattern suggest that the wind structure is evolving towards a more typical tropical cyclone pattern.

Under the steering influence of the mid-levels near-equatorial ridge in its north, system is globally tracking southeastwards. Chedza is located in a low sheared area and a good upper-level outflow (especially polerward) with a high oceanic heat contents.

A climatology rhythm intensification is expected until landfall that should occur later today or tonight over the western Madagascar coastline in the area near Morondava.

Most of the available numerical weather prediction models suggest that the mid-level circulation could resist to the crossing path over Madagascar and that the low level circulation could re-develop as the system get back oversea on the southeast of Madagascar on Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginal by that time experiencing a moderate west northwesterly vertical wind shear however weakening on Sunday and in the same direction than the system's motion, but in a very good low level convergence environment over favorable heat oceanic contents and sustained by an efficient poleward upper-level outflow. ECMWF and GFS numerical weather prediction models suggest a gradual further intensification on a east southeastwards track at first. On and after Monday, a mid-level trough arrives in the south and Chedza in then expected to recurve south southeastwards.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BANSI (05-20142015)
10:00 AM RET January 16 2015
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Bansi (923 hPa) located at 20.1S 65.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 16 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 75 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 190 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D1.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 22.2S 67.1E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS 23.6S 69.0E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS 24.9S 74.8E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 28.6S 83.7E - 60 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
===================
The Dvorak signature has slightly fluctuated for the last 6 hours, but globally the system has few evolved. The current estimate is in good agreement with other latest Dvorak assessment from reporting agencies and ADT (6.6 at 0600z). It is moving regularly and rapidly on a southeastward track. The masses cloudy of Bansi begin to leave Rodrigues island where weather conditions are still deteriorated but should improve this afternoon.

Bansi is expected to recurve on tracking east southeastward during the next night. Within the night between Sunday and Monday, the system should move again southeastward.

On this forecast track, system progress south of the upper level ridge axis, and an upper level trough should come closer to the system from the southwest. Westerly vertical wind shear is consequently expected to increase and in relationship with lower oceanic heat contents near 25.0S, Bansi is likely to become a post-tropical hybrid system from Sunday, then extratropical from Monday or Tuesday.

Until Monday, the maximum wind speed is likely to remain strong within the low level circulation
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (1501)
15:00 PM JST January 16 2015
==============================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mekkhala (992 hPa) located at 11.3N 129.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 11.8N 126.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 113.3N 123.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Albay [Philippines]
72 HRS: 15.4N 120.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Tarlac [Philippines]
Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
704 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

NCZ002-VAZ010>014-016>020-WVZ044-507-171200-
ALLEGHANY NC-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FL OYD-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
704 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
ortheast Storm May Bring Soaking Rain, Snow, and Wind Early Next Week
Published Jan 16 2015 06:17 AM EST

Rainy Forecast
Rain will spread northward Sunday from parts of the Carolinas into the big cities of the Northeast, including Sunday's AFC Championship football game in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

Right now it looks most likely that the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C. will see mostly rain, while locations farther inland will see snow. There is a chance that the rain may change over to snow before ending on Monday close to Boston and New York.
its.green...drizzling..e.cen.florida
679. MahFL
"LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS BOTH GFS
AND ECM SHOW RATHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO"

Interesting....
Going to be a lot of rain next week across FL. Looks like possibly starting Tuesday but it appears most of the rain comes Thursday Night off and on thru next Sunday and by looking at the Euro and GFS their could be 3" to 5" of rain from C FL points north.

Quoting 679. MahFL:

"LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS BOTH GFS
AND ECM SHOW RATHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO"

Interesting....


You think the GFS is wet across FL, the Euro is even wetter. Incredible as their is a serious amount of water coming down the Kissimmee River draining into Lake O. Now Army Corps are having to open the docks to lower Lake levels not just across Lake but now around Orlando as well.

Today's Lake Okeechobee Stage = 15.02 (Feet-NGVD29)


Mike Masco ABC Baltimore Meteorologist added 2 new photos.
1 hr ·
MONSTER COLD going forward!
Truly impressed with the pattern ahead. This is last years cold with added cold. The 6-10 day forecast COLD... the 11-15 day forecast VERY COLD!
The face our ensembles (51 models blended together) show this much cold is IMPRESSIVE. Think warm thoughts from next week into early Feb.
My FEB forecast is -3° below average .. 15" of snow on average
Quoting 683. washingtonian115:


Mike Masco ABC Baltimore Meteorologist added 2 new photos.
1 hr ·
MONSTER COLD going forward!
Truly impressed with the pattern ahead. This is last years cold with added cold. The 6-10 day forecast COLD... the 11-15 day forecast VERY COLD!
The face our ensembles (51 models blended together) show this much cold is IMPRESSIVE. Think warm thoughts from next week into early Feb.
My FEB forecast is -3° below average .. 15" of snow on average


It doesn't look that cold on the Euro
7 day for Fort Myers. More dry weather for us. We've had .50" in the past 51 days.

Nearby Weather Stations
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
30.5 °F
DopplerDon.com
30.6 °F
Rock Hill
29.2 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
29.1 °F
Foxon
28.8 °F
East Haven Town Beach
31.9 °F
east haven morgan point
32.4 °F
Quoting 685. Sfloridacat5:

7 day for Fort Myers. More dry weather for us. We've had .50" in the past 51 days.




The gates are open on the SW side of Lake O so there is going to be a lot of flooded grass lands across extreme SW FL. Crazy how high the Lake is just to your east but you are so dry. Makes no sense.
Sharnado 3 wlll take place in D.C..Perhaps I can crash the movie set to stop this nonsense from airing.Okay we got the joke the first and second time.Now they're just dragging this thing out..
Link
Quoting 685. Sfloridacat5:

7 day for Fort Myers. More dry weather for us. We've had .50" in the past 51 days.




Every single time we have had rain in FL so far during the dry season, it parks itself in the exact same place, I-4 corridor northward. I live about 10 miles north of Tampa international Airport, and even the rain totals at my house vs the airport aren't even close.

Mike Masco ABC Baltimore Meteorologist

*TO GIVE YOU SOME HOPE*
A snow analog I am looking at to compare to this year would be '78-79 .
We registered snow in November... NO snow in December..some in Jan but BIG storms in FEB and MARCH.
1978-1979 ended above 40"!!!! In depth discussion ONLINE at 9pm!!

I just don't see it...
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Every single time we have had rain in FL so far during the dry season, it parks itself in the exact same place, I-4 corridor northward. I live about 10 miles north of Tampa international Airport, and even the rain totals at my house vs the airport aren't even close.


Yeah, I mentioned yesterday that Naples, Florida has only had 1.40" since November 1st (77 days).

December only .25"
January only .10"


Quoting 693. yoboi:

"Earth had a relatively quiet year for natural disasters in 2014, with the combined economic losses adding up to $132 billion US dollars--37% below the $211 billion per year average damages from the previous ten years"

With 2014 being the warmest temps...I would say this proves that maybe warming is a good thing.....The numbers prove it.....


696. yoboi
Quoting 694. Naga5000:







Great scientific rebuttal......
Local news said they will be doing "controlled burns" today to help prevent fires later in the dry season.
I guess with high humidity and light winds it's a good time to do controlled burns.

S.W. Florida has been missing out on the big rains.

30 Day precipitation map.


Quoting 696. yoboi:




Great scientific rebuttal......
Sarcasm is a two way street...;)
Quoting 693. yoboi:

"Earth had a relatively quiet year for natural disasters in 2014, with the combined economic losses adding up to $132 billion US dollars--37% below the $211 billion per year average damages from the previous ten years"

With 2014 being the warmest temps...I would say this proves that maybe warming is a good thing.....The numbers prove it.....

LOL. You have got to be kidding.

Correlation does not equal causation.
Quoting 696. yoboi:




Great scientific rebuttal......


Your assumption is flawed on it's face for suggesting that surface temperature has a 1 to 1 correlation to damage costs. It ignores the finer details of the effects of temperature on the intricate systems of weather in terms of where the disasters strike, what type of disaster, as well as it ignores the variables involving which country/countries are affected, their infrastructure, building codes, etc., as well as year to year variability which still exists in a warming world. I'm simplifying a lot of connections here to save time, but I think the point is quite clear.

Like the lady said, "That's not how any of this works".
702. yoboi
Quoting 701. Naga5000:



Your assumption is flawed on it's face for suggesting that surface temperature has a 1 to 1 correlation to damage costs. It ignores the finer details of the effects of temperature on the intricate systems of weather in terms of where the disasters strike, what type of disaster, as well as it ignores the variables involving which country/countries are affected, their infrastructure, building codes, etc., as well as year to year variability which still exists in a warming world. I'm simplifying a lot of connections here to save time, but I think the point is quite clear.

Like the lady said, "That's not how any of this works".


So you are saying a warming climate will not increase disaster cost????
Quoting 702. yoboi:



So you are saying a warming climate will not increase disaster cost????


Not at all, but since you seem to not understand that there are other variables in the equation, I think we are done here. Thanks for failing stats class this morning.
Quoting 700. TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL. You have got to be kidding.

Correlation does not equal causation.

And just using two points alone is hardly evidence for a correlation.
705. yoboi
Quoting 703. Naga5000:



Not at all, but since you seem to not understand that there are other variables in the equation, I think we are done here. Thanks for failing stats class this morning.


Ok....But the numbers prove what I have been saying here for years....No variable here....
The new ECMWF weeklies from last night were actually very cold as we progress from late January into early February. I'd say that's significant given how warm biased the weeklies have been this winter.
Quoting 683. washingtonian115:


Mike Masco ABC Baltimore Meteorologist added 2 new photos.
1 hr ·
MONSTER COLD going forward!
Truly impressed with the pattern ahead. This is last years cold with added cold. The 6-10 day forecast COLD... the 11-15 day forecast VERY COLD!
The face our ensembles (51 models blended together) show this much cold is IMPRESSIVE. Think warm thoughts from next week into early Feb.
My FEB forecast is -3° below average .. 15" of snow on average


Another twitter met trying to boost ratings.....
A reminder- NOAA and NASA will hold a joint teleconference starting at 10:30 A.M., to release global temperature data for the year 2014. It is highly likely that 2014 will be declared Earth's warmest year on record. You should be able to listen to audio and see graphics from the conference at this link if you so wish.
Cold outside. I was outside a little while ago and it felt great (sun was shining, light winds). Then some low clouds rolled in and the wind picked up out of the north. I got a little chilly.

At the house, its only 59 degrees with a north wind of 10 mph.
That's pretty chilly.
Quoting 687. StormTrackerScott:



The gates are open on the SW side of Lake O so there is going to be a lot of flooded grass lands across extreme SW FL. Crazy how high the Lake is just to your east but you are so dry. Makes no sense.


How much rain did you get yesterday? Only 0.07" at my house.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A reminder- NOAA and NASA will hold a joint teleconference starting at 10:30 A.M., to release global temperature data for the year 2014. It is highly likely that 2014 will be declared Earth's warmest year on record. You should be able to listen to audio and see graphics from the conference at this link if you so wish.
As expected:



Lots and lots and lots of reds:




Quoting yoboi:
"Earth had a relatively quiet year for natural disasters in 2014, with the combined economic losses adding up to $132 billion US dollars--37% below the $211 billion per year average damages from the previous ten years"

With 2014 being the warmest temps...I would say this proves that maybe warming is a good thing.....The numbers prove it.....
My uncle was obese, but he's lost a few pounds thanks to a gastric carcinoma. I would say this proves that maybe stomach cancer is a good thing.....
Quoting 707. tlawson48:



Another twitter met trying to boost ratings.....
He's a official met.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The new ECMWF weeklies from last night were actually very cold as we progress from late January into early February. I'd say that's significant given how warm biased the weeklies have been this winter.
I am a little worried for a couple reasons..Last year was dry because systems had little moisture , this year that will not be the case. There are a signs of large and brutally cold air masses getting mixed up with the sub tropical jet over the middle of the country rather than the Eastern Seaboard. It the primary storm track is well west of the east coast , it will mean big trouble for many folks who are not used to severe winter weather.
Quoting 711. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hi Tropical, Joseph D' Aleo has an interesting article over on the WB premium website, it explains a lot about how NOAA and NASA gather and issue their temp data. You and everyone else should read it, it's quite interesting.
Quoting 701. Naga5000:

Like the lady said, "That's not how any of this works".


I unfriend you.

:D
60 day precipitation map (pretty close to the beginning of the dry season) shows the two heavy rainfall areas in Florida (Panhandle/north Florida region and central Florida).
It also shows the low precipitation across southern Fl.
Quoting 716. NativeSun:

Hi Tropical, Joseph D' Aleo has an interesting article over on the WB premium website, it explains a lot about how NOAA and NASA gather and issue their temp data. You and everyone else should read it, it's quite interesting.


Well no, it isn't. D'Aleo is a climate science denier and a shill for free market think tanks. He also runs the website Icecap.us which is a Ice Age Cometh conspiracy website.

This is the problem...you think guys like this actually have something legitimate to say, instead they are selling you pseudo scientific garbage, impossible for the average person to differentiate from actual science.
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi Tropical, Joseph D' Aleo has an interesting article over on the WB premium website, it explains a lot about how NOAA and NASA gather and issue their temp data. You and everyone else should read it, it's quite interesting.
I can't imagine why anyone would pay good money for a subscription to WB just so they can read Bastardi's and D'Aleo's nonsensical rants about how sneaky and manipulative and ignorant and un-patriotic are the hundreds of NOAA's climate experts...
Yep..Record warmth indeed , but not for the Tennesse Valley...Very cold here , with more coming..Could be a rough winter.
Quoting 711. TropicalAnalystwx13:



I was expecting new records for JMA and NOAA, but a little surprised by GISTemp (NASA).
"Nine of the ten warmest years have occurred since the year 2000, with 13 of the 15 hottest years on record globally all occurring during just the past 15 years, based on NOAA data.

The odds of this happening by chance — that is, rather than due to a combination of manmade pollution and natural climate variability — are less than 1-in-27 million, according to the climate research and journalism group Climate Central. Without global warming, one would expect warm and cold years to occur randomly over that period." Link

Quoting 706. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The new ECMWF weeklies from last night were actually very cold as we progress from late January into early February. I'd say that's significant given how warm biased the weeklies have been this winter.

There's no denying that the upcoming pattern will be the most robust we've seen all winter by all indicators. Whether it leads to a blockbuster storm remains to be seen.
Quoting 720. Neapolitan:

I can't imagine why anyone would pay good money for a subscription to WB just so they can read Bastardi's and D'Aleo's nonsensical rants about how sneaky and manipulative and ignorant and un-patriotic are the hundreds of NOAA's climate experts...


I like weatherbell's graphics but i'm not sure it's worth the $20/month.
727. jpsb
Quoting 723. Naga5000:

according to the climate research and journalism group Climate Central. Without global warming, one would expect warm and cold years to occur randomly over that period."



Not if one believes the climate operates in cycles.
Quoting 710. tampabaymatt:



How much rain did you get yesterday? Only 0.07" at my house.


Whatever it is, I'm sure it was more than anyone else.
Finally, Sun after 3+ days of clouds...this is not Seattle! It is north Florida.
Quoting 683. washingtonian115:


Mike Masco ABC Baltimore Meteorologist added 2 new photos.
1 hr ·
MONSTER COLD going forward!
Truly impressed with the pattern ahead. This is last years cold with added cold. The 6-10 day forecast COLD... the 11-15 day forecast VERY COLD!
The face our ensembles (51 models blended together) show this much cold is IMPRESSIVE. Think warm thoughts from next week into early Feb.
My FEB forecast is -3° below average .. 15" of snow on average

Yep, but no! everyone is still obsessed with RECORD HEAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let's not talk about the cold, oh, wait, let's say that Global Warming/CC means it will get colder at times.....
Quoting 716. NativeSun:

Hi Tropical, Joseph D' Aleo has an interesting article over on the WB premium website, it explains a lot about how NOAA and NASA gather and issue their temp data. You and everyone else should read it, it's quite interesting.

I haven't seen enough of your posts to determine whether you are just dropping by with stuff like this to just get a rise out of people, or if you honestly believe the stuff written by D'Aleo to be accurate.

For now I will assume the latter. D'Aleo is not a definitive source for climate science information. I appears that he has only published one article in a science journal dealing with the topic of global climate change, and it was in a very low impact journal (not even showing up on some lists of science journals). Numerous independent temperature records and reconstructions show the same information, and lead scientists to the same conclusion. I'm not going to waste my time, no suggest that others waste their time, trying to read this oddly-timed post claiming "interesting" methodology of NOAA/NASA, but we can assume it's the same zombie myths... adjustments are causing all the warming, urban heat island effects are causing all the warming, stations are attached the exhaust of jet airplanes.
Those claims just do not hold up to scrutiny and for your sake you should choose better sources for your climate science reading to improve your science literacy.
Quoting 722. ScottLincoln:


I was expecting new records for JMA and NOAA, but a little surprised by GISTemp (NASA).


Me too. Usually NASA is a bit more conservative.
Pretty warm for January across the High Plains today.
20 years ago, under Dr. Cesar Caviedes at UF ...the motto was Blame everything on El Nino.
737. jpsb
Quoting 725. Drakoen:



There's no denying that the upcoming pattern will be the most robust we've seen all winter by all indicators. Whether it leads to a blockbuster storm remains to be seen.


First Hand Weather agrees with you


Finally some sunshine returns to the Gulf Coast.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Finally some sunshine returns to the Gulf Coast.


It needs to hurry up and get down here. I've got cloudy skies and 59 degrees with a north wind gusting to 19 mph. I expected it to be a nice warm day today.

But I know as soon as the sun comes out, if it does, it will warm up fast. We're supposed to be up around 70 degrees today.
Quoting 739. Drakoen:



Should I scan my Bachelors Degree in Meteorology and Mathematics? This is a public forum and we are allowed to criticize what we want. I don't use twitter but I have no problem saying that I think WB prices may be a little too steep. Want to pass along the messgae for me? Dr.Maue used to blog on here, maybe you can draw him out.


do tell..You dont use twitter? you posted a month ago about how DT was going balistic on twitter...

you're right this is a public forum but so is twitter and Dr. Maue doesn't post here on WU..I was only telling you where he is at during the day. I'm just saying it would be interesting to see his reply to you complaining about his prices that he charges for his graphics that he made..I'm sure his response will be how much do you charge for your graphics?

Let me scoot..I know how the hammer follows only certain people..

Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics

NASA and NOAA have just reported that global surface temperatures in 2014 were the hottest on record. That also means 2014 was likely the hottest the Earth has been in millennia, and perhaps as much as 100,000 years.

But what’s really remarkable is that 2014 set this record without the aid of an El Niño event. El Niño events create conditions in which sea surface and hence global surface temperatures are anomalously hot. We call this part of the Earth’s “internal variability” because these events just temporarily shift heat around between the ocean surface and its depths.

As this graphic shows (click here for an animated version), the last five record hot years of 2010, 2005, 1998, 1997, and 1995 were all assisted by El Niño events.



More in The Guardian ...
What is the estimated cost of the California Drought?
Is it not on the list because the effects were too small or because it hasn't ended yet?
I know a late season wet spell saved a lot of peoples water supply/"bacon". But having half the state in exceptional drought for months and months has got to be in the 10's of millions at the very least.
Anyways.....


The GFS 12z is supressed to the south for next weekend. Go figure. LOL.

Let's see what the rest of the 12z suite says.
That thick cloud band is right over Fort Myers. We should see the sun pretty soon.
Quoting yoboi:
"Earth had a relatively quiet year for natural disasters in 2014, with the combined economic losses adding up to $132 billion US dollars--37% below the $211 billion per year average damages from the previous ten years"

With 2014 being the warmest temps...I would say this proves that maybe warming is a good thing.....The numbers prove it.....
So you "maybe" proved global warming was a good thing....based on alleged number of $1 billion disasters....any idea of how many less than $1 billion disasters there were last year compared to previous years???? Seems like that's the most important number when added to the $1 billion plus disasters, don't you think????
Quoting 731. opal92nwf:


Yep, but no! everyone is still obsessed with RECORD HEAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let's not talk about the cold, oh, wait, let's say that Global Warming/CC means it will get colder at times.....
Interesting observation... I just hit ctrl+F and searched for the words "cold" and "warm" on this page. "Cold" had 43 mentions and "Warm" had 35. The bias is in the eyes of the beholder, or so it seems.
Quoting biff4ugo:
What is the estimated cost of the California Drought?
Is it not on the list because the effects were too small or because it hasn't ended yet?
I know a late season wet spell saved a lot of peoples water supply/"bacon". But having half the state in exceptional drought for months and months has got to be in the 10's of millions at the very least.
It's listed as Disaster #3. About $3.6 billion, but that's just for ag losses. There are a lot of other losses, like increased costs for water for manufacturing and increased cost of water to other users. They're harder to quantify but they are real.
Quoting 745. Drakoen:

Anyways.....


The GFS 12z is supressed to the south for next weekend. Go figure. LOL.

Let's see what the rest of the 12z suite says.
Greetings Drak..Regardless of models , my guess is something will be brewing , and hopefully not too far west.

How will North America fit in Mars?


How will Io fit in NA?


Quoting yoboi:



Great scientific rebuttal......
An unscientific rebuttal to unscientific post. It's also just another example of you putting words in someone's mouth so they have to defend against what they never said.

How will Saturn rings fit around earth?


How big is Jupiter's Hurricane? Imagine it over NA?


LINK Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Where do I purchase my one way ticket to Mars?
Thanks SAR!

I don't know why I was so California centric...#9 is the drought.