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The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season: another strangely active one

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:08 PM GMT on November 28, 2011

Wednesday marks the final day of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, and it was another very odd year. The season featured a huge number of named storms--nineteen--tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. However, 2011 had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. The year started out with eight consecutive tropical storms that failed to reach hurricane strength--the first time on record the Atlantic has seen that many storms in row not reach hurricane strength. We had a near-average average number of hurricanes in 2011--seven--meaning that only 37% of this year's named storms made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There were three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--a measure of the destructive potential of this season's storms--was about 20% above average. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for 2011's unusually high count of named storms, but near-average number of hurricanes and ACE. Both 2010 and 2011 had nineteen named storms, making it the second busiest 2-year period in the Atlantic behind 2004 - 2005. Even when one considers that 2 - 4 tropical storms from both 2010 and 2011 would likely have been missed before the advent of satellites, the tropical storm activity of 2010 - 2011 is still very remarkable (in 2011, Tropical Storm Franklin, Tropical Storm Jose, and the unnamed 19th tropical storm of September 1 would probably have been missed before satellite technology came along, since they were all weak, short-lived storms that did not impact land or shipping.)


FIgure 1. Tracks for the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 2011.

Another below-average hurricane season for the U.S.
For the second consecutive year, despite a near-record number of named storms in the Atlantic, the U.S. had far fewer strikes by tropical storms and hurricanes than average. Favorable steering currents steered most of the storms in 2010 and 2011 past Bermuda and out to sea. During 2010, only one tropical storm hit the U.S., despite a season with the 3rd highest number of named storms--nineteen. Only two named storms hit the U.S. in 2011: Tropical Storm Lee, which hit Louisiana with 60 mph winds, and Hurricane Irene, which hit North Carolina on August 27 with 85 mph winds, and made two additional landfalls in New Jersey and New York the next day. Tropical Storm Don hit Texas on July 29 as a tropical depression and did not count as a landfalling named storm, according to post analysis by NHC. Wind shear and dry air from the Texas drought made Don rapidly weaken before landfall on Padre Island National Seashore north of Brownsville. During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. The U.S. averaged seeing six named storms per year, with four of them being hurricanes and two being intense hurricanes. Thus, the landfall of only three named storms in a two-year period is a major departure from what happened the previous fifteen years. The past six years is the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since 1861 - 1868. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005. One caveat to keep in mind, though: Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav of 2008 both hit the U.S. as strong Category 2 hurricanes, and had central pressures characteristic of Category 3 hurricanes. Had these storms occurred more than 65 years ago, before the Hurricane Hunters, Ike and Gustav would likely have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes at landfall (assuming that few quality wind observations would have been available at landfall, which is usually the case.)


Figure 2. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak on August 25, 2011 during Hurricane Irene. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.


Figure 3. The eye of Hurricane Irene as seen by hurricane hunter and wunderblogger LRandyB on August 24, 2011, when the hurricane was approaching the Bahama Islands.

The strongest, deadliest and longest-lived storms of 2011
The strongest hurricane of 2011 was Hurricane Ophelia, which peaked as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds and a central pressure of 940 mb on October 2, when it was just northeast of Bermuda. Ophelia hit Southeast Newfoundland as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on October 3, but caused little damage. The strongest hurricane at landfall was Hurricane Irene, whose 120-mph eyewall winds raked Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, Cat Island, Eleuthera, and Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Wind gusts as high as 140 mph were reported in the Bahamas.The longest-lived storm of 2011 was Hurricane Phillipe, which lasted 15 days, from September 24 to October 8. The most damaging storm was Hurricane Irene, which caused an estimated $7.2 billion in damage from North Carolina to New England, according to re-insurance broker AON Benfield. Irene was also the deadliest storm of 2011, with 55 deaths in the Caribbean and U.S.



Figure 3. Pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal.

Pre-season hurricane forecasts did a decent job
The pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups were generally decent. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State will be releasing their end-of-season verification and summary of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season on November 30.


Figure 4. Portlight volunteers at work in Pink Hill, North Carolina, after Hurricane Irene.

Portlight disaster relief efforts for 2011
My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, has posted a summary of their efforts during the hurricane season of 2011. Portlight mobilized in the wake of Hurricane Irene to help out in North Carolina, Delaware, and Maryland on cleanup efforts, food, and supply distribution. Portlight also provided financial assistance to survivors, including a commercial fisherwoman and single mother of two who lost her boat and home in the storm, after having been diagnosed with breast cancer two days before Irene struck. See the portlight blog for the full story; donations are always welcome. Wunderground is proud to be a major sponsor of Portlight again this year.

Next post
On Wednesday, I plan to look at 2011's worst hurricane--Hurricane Irene--and the lesson it should have given us regarding the hurricane vulnerability of New York City.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

watch out jacksonvile snow baby
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Hope everyone survived their turkey comas ok. :)
Thanks Dr. Masters
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PST MON NOV 28 2011

THIS IS A COMPROMISE FORECAST. AND HAVE TO SAY THAT IF THE WIND
FORECAST DOES PAN OUT AS THE CURRENT MDLS FORECAST IT IS GOING TO BE
A DOOZIE. ON THURSDAY THE LAS TO DAG GRADIENT PEAKS AT 12 MB AND
MOST IMPORTANTLY THERE IS GOING TO BE 9 TO 12 DEGREES CELSIUS OF
COOLING COMBINING WITH A 70 TO 80 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A 5 TO 10 YEAR SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WITH 80 MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER A WIDE AREA. ALL THAT SAID THE MDLS OFTEN OVER DO
THESE WIND EVENTS AS THEY OVER-DO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UPPER SUPPORT. STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
Go from burning up literally with fires, triple digit streaks, drought record, to freezing cold this morning in TX, Corpus Christi hit 27.

Record low temperature set at Corpus Christi Texas this
morning...

A record low temperature of 27 degrees was set this morning in
Corpus Christi Texas. The previous record of 28 degrees was set in
1993.

Peak wind gusts across south Texas over the weekend...

A strong cold front moved through the area Saturday night with
strong northwest winds continuing during the day on Sunday. Here
are the peak wind gusts (mph) for Saturday night and Sunday
across the area :

Saturday night/Sunday
---------------------

Corpus Christi Intl Airport... ... ... 45/47
Victoria Regional Airport... ... ... ..43/45
Laredo Intl Airport... ... ... ... ... ..41/40
Corpus Christi naval air... ... ... ... 48/43
Kingsville naval air... ... ... ... ... .45/41
Rockport/Aransas County Airport... ..45/40
Alice... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .39/39
Cotulla... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..35/37
Port Lavaca... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .41/40
Port Aransas... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 47/38
Orange Grove naval auxilary... ... ... 43/44
Ingleside McCampbell Airport... ... ..41/39
Robstown... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .39/40
Beeville... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .35/37

Marine observations
-------------------
Port Aransas coastal... ... ... ... ... .44/40
bob Hall pier... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..48/41
South Bird Island... ... ... ... ... ... .45/42
Rockport... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .43/37
Seadrift... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .37/38
Port Lavaca... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .37/34
Port O'Connor... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..44/41
Corpus Christi Bay platform... ... ... 48/41
Packery Channel... ... ... ... ... ... ... 46/41
Matagorda Island... ... ... ... ... ... ..40/40
Look to see some development in the NW GOM soon with the cold air and NW driving winds of late.



Sarcasm Flag:ON
Thanks Jeff...
everyone go on tropics chat so we can talk in there
Quoting presslord:

That's right! WOOF!
Quoting eddye:
watch out jacksonvile snow baby


Nah, no snow in Jacksonville, or anywhere else that far south. Looks like the snow line will be from about Birmingham north in Alabama and about 50 miles south of Atlanta and north in Georgia. Sure feels cold enough for snow, with a temperature of only 44 right now in Montgomery, but the cold air will just miss getting far enough south to give us any white stuff. Had a nice rainfall though, with 3.19 inches since yesterday.
Mid to upper 60's up here in New England and 44 in Montgomery,the world turned upside down.
Can't rule out some severe weather tonight in NC. Lots of shear and helicity, but not much instability. It's smiliar to the 11/28/88 event.

Today is the anniversary of the November 28, 1988 Raleigh Tornado, one of the strongest tornadoes on record in North Carolina.

Here is the case study:
--http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19881 128/--
Quoting NEwxguy:
Mid to upper 60's up here in New England and 44 in Montgomery,the world turned upside down.


Big time chill heading your way my friend.
Temperature just went from 85 here in NW Orlando to 64 in 15 minutes.

Quoting NEwxguy:
Mid to upper 60's up here in New England and 44 in Montgomery,the world turned upside down.


Here at my place in Central Florida it was 76 this morning, now the front has since passed and its 63 now at mid day with a steady northwest wind and a steady rain, 0.56 so far. It feels like winter to me, and I like it :)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Here at my place in Central Florida it was 76 this morning, now the front has since passed and its 63 now at mid day with a steady northwest wind and a steady rain, 0.56 so far. It feels like winter to me, and I like it :)


This is really the first big push of cooler air into FL so far this season as it has been in the 80's nearly everyday this month here in Orlando.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


This is really the first big push of cooler air into FL so far this season as it has been in the 80's nearly everyday this month here in Orlando.


Yes it is! We have had some fronts this year but not a significant, long lasting cool period like that is coming behind this front. Below normal temps will prevail this entire week!

I'm glad I love the seasonal change! I like cool weather, just not 20's and snow like up north, but 40's, 50's and 60's are great!
Don't call anything 'cold' until I see Lows in the 30s for my area in Tampa.
FWIW - ECMWF spins something up from this mess, before going extra-tropical. Looks sub-tropical in nature. Not likely to happen, but would be neat if 2011 could push for 20-7-3.




Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't call anything 'cold' until I see Lows in the 30s for my area in Tampa.
I believe it will be quite a while before you get anything that cold...
Thank you Dr. Masters.

It definitely has been a strange hurricane season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW - ECMWF spins something up from this mess, before going extra-tropical. Looks sub-tropical in nature. Not likely to happen, but would be neat if 2011 could push for 20-7-3.





The ECMWF is not the only model...Count the CMC, GFS, and maybe even the NOGAPS in as well.
Quoting hydrus:
I believe it will be quite a while before you get anything that cold...


I live actually in E. Hillsborough, last year it got down to the 30s in December.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I live actually in E. Hillsborough, last year it got down to the 30s in December.
I know that place. I lived in north Tampa for a year or so..It does get a bit chilly there. I remember having to scrape my windshield a number of times in 1999 and 2000.
I remember storm tracking in 1983..Other than Alicia, it was very much a no show...
Quoting StormTracker2K:


This is really the first big push of cooler air into FL so far this season as it has been in the 80's nearly everyday this month here in Orlando.


Froze here in SE TX, around 30 and Corpus Christi hit record low of 27
Considering 05 was about 7 times more active..
Quoting RitaEvac:


Froze here in SE TX, around 30 and Corpus Christi hit record low of 27
Wuzup R.E..Gettin any rain.?
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup R.E..Gettin any rain.?


1.05" Saturday!
Quoting RitaEvac:


1.05" Saturday!
Excellent..Maybe a bit more down the road...Hope you are doing well..
A Big "Thank You" to the Wunderground, Dr. Masters,and to "all" who make our work possible.

Your gift is their gain.

Happy Holidays from Portlight.org


Portlight volunteers at work in Pink Hill, North Carolina, after Hurricane Irene.



Xmas in Haiti 2010

















Is there a track of the UN-NAMED STORM?
"As far as landfalling major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 with top winds of 111mph and greater) are concerned, the lull continues. 2011 marks a record six straight years without one hitting the United States. The last one to do so was Wilma in 2005. Nonetheless, wind is not the only threat with tropical systems as proven by Irene and Lee, which caused deadly and destructive flooding. On average, more than half of the fatalities related to tropical systems are due to flooding." Link

Something tells me Lee is getting retired.
Models are really going gunwire on the cold for the East by mid-month...1989 anyone?!!
Wow have had quite the temp drop in the last 2 hours. 54F to 46F. Think the all snow transition may become a good bit earlier than expected.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Is there a track of the UN-NAMED STORM?

When the Tropical Cyclone Report comes out...Should be out by November 30, which is only in two days.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Will NO-NAME STORM get a TCR?

Kinda off topic but there was a 5.2 earthquake north of pr, did you feel it?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/pr11332006.php
Was Lee the first ever Tropical Cyclone to cause a forest fire due to the winds?
Quoting Articuno:
Was Lee the first ever Tropical Cyclone to cause a forest fire due to the winds?

I highly doubt it.
Well NWS was WAY off on temps.

Late Afternoon: Showers. High near 64. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Its currently 46 and falling fast.
Quoting Articuno:

Kinda off topic but there was a 5.2 earthquake north of pr, did you feel it?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/pr11332006.php

Yes, I also felt the one preceding it, mag 4.9; it woke me up.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yes, I also felt the one preceding it, mag 4.9; it woke me up.

I imagine so, the 5.8 earthquake scared the $#@% outta me.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well NWS was WAY off on temps.

Late Afternoon: Showers. High near 64. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Its currently 46 and falling fast.

Where do you live?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where do you live?
Atlanta


I'm still in shock that the Atlantic, NIO (atleast once ARB04 becomes Thane) and EPac have all had more named storms since October 1st than the WPac, and October is the WPac's peak month. It's literally amazing how nearly nothing has formed there in 2 months.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Atlanta


Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well NWS was WAY off on temps.

Late Afternoon: Showers. High near 64. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Its currently 46 and falling fast.

The purpose of the 'This afternoon' whatever you want to call it, is to focus mainly on precipitation. Most areas reach their peak temperature during the afternoon hours, but in this case, the 64F was the forecast high for the whole day. Atlanta, GA reached 63F, so they were pretty much dead on for the temperatures.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The purpose of the 'This afternoon' whatever you want to call it, is to focus mainly on precipitation. Most areas reach their peak temperature during the afternoon hours, but in this case, the 64F was the forecast high for the whole day. Atlanta, GA reached 63F, so they were pretty much dead on for the temperatures.
Lol did not realize that. 08:53 SE 13 G 20 1.50 Light Rain Fog/Mist FEW006 BKN008 OVC017 62 59 29.73 1006.0 0.05 Was when it reached the high. Really early.
Quoting Articuno:

I imagine so, the 5.8 earthquake scared the $#@% outta me.

I felt a 5.8 last year, May 16.
Wilma in high def..
Quoting hydrus:
Wilma in high def..

Hurricane Allen was stronger (winds only):

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I felt a 5.8 last year, May 16.

What exactly is the strongest earthquake you ever felt?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I felt a 5.8 last year, May 16.


Shakemap of the 2011 Virginia earthquake
I am in MD, and in the yellow
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well NWS was WAY off on temps.

Late Afternoon: Showers. High near 64. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Its currently 46 and falling fast.


64 at midnight or something
Quoting Articuno:

What exactly is the strongest earthquake you ever felt?

That one. PR hasn't had any very strong earthquakes recently. But look at this extremely worrying bit from Wikipedia:
The worst case scenario would be a M9.0 striking the island and sending a 50-100 ft tsunami wave raging across the Caribbean, then slamming into the east coast of North America, after many hours the tsunami would reach Africa and so on.
Link
Getting concerned about lows tonight here in SE TX, dewpoint air is bone dry still in teens and 20s, and no return flow yet off the gulf to increase dewpoints overnight. Might actually be colder tomm morning or the same as this morning again. Not looking good

Never mind was reading wrong, dewpoints are around 30
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hurricane Allen was stronger (winds only):

Camille also had 190 mph sustained winds..
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That one. PR hasn't had any very strong earthquakes recently. But look at this extremely worrying bit from Wikipedia:
The worst case scenario would be a M9.0 striking the island and sending a 50-100 ft tsunami wave raging across the Caribbean, then slamming into the east coast of North America, after many hours the tsunami would reach Africa and so on.
Link

That article is in bad shape right now...My recommendation for using Wikipedia articles is, go to the top left where it says "Discussion" and click that, and then find its rating (Stub, Start, C-class, B-class, A-class, good article, featured article).

Obviously, that particular article does not have a rating or anything much on the Talk page rather, but just a heads up, I'd do that for tropical cyclone articles.
Quoting hydrus:
Camille also had 190 mph sustained winds..

Quite an old sattelite if i say so myself
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That article is in bad shape right now...My recommendation for using Wikipedia articles is, go to the top left where it says "Discussion" and click that, and then find its rating (Stub, Start, C-class, B-class, A-class, good article, featured article).

Obviously, that particular article does not have a rating or anything much on the Talk page rather, but just a heads up, I'd do that for tropical cyclone articles.

I always look at that for TC articles. But this article...well....meh.
People enjoy vandalizing Wikipedia for some unknown reason.

"Magic Bananas usually torture Earth during bananaquakes. Magic Bananas eat double rainbows so there can be a single rainbow. Thats one of the reasons double rainbows are rarely seen.

Magic Bananas get their smartness from gorillas and their hair. Magic bananas are used as cars for fairies. Magic Bananas carry a disease you can get which is called Bananacidus so be careful. Magic Bananas are made from magical rainbow flavored burritos."
GFS bringing down a 1040mb ridge into TX next Tuesday, Arctic outbreak/Blue Norther. Showing front plowing thru TX Sunday with the ridge directly over TX Tuesday.
Quoting interstatelover7165:

Quite an old sattelite if i say so myself
Here is more..I do actually remember all of these...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
People enjoy vandalizing Wikipedia for some unknown reason.

"Magic Bananas usually torture Earth during bananaquakes. Magic Bananas eat double rainbows so there can be a single rainbow. Thats one of the reasons double rainbows are rarely seen.

Magic Bananas get their smartness from gorillas and their hair. Magic bananas are used as cars for fairies. Magic Bananas carry a disease you can get which is called Bananacidus so be careful. Magic Bananas are made from magical rainbow flavored burritos."

LOL! xD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That article is in bad shape right now...My recommendation for using Wikipedia articles is, go to the top left where it says "Discussion" and click that, and then find its rating (Stub, Start, C-class, B-class, A-class, good article, featured article).

Obviously, that particular article does not have a rating or anything much on the Talk page rather, but just a heads up, I'd do that for tropical cyclone articles.
You a member?
Quoting interstatelover7165:
You a member?

Yes, for over a year now.
Quoting Articuno:


Shakemap of the 2011 Virginia earthquake
I am in MD, and in the yellow
What part of Maryland?
Damn, Alicia was small

Quoting hydrus:
Here is more..I do actually remember all of these...

what storm is no. four?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
People enjoy vandalizing Wikipedia for some unknown reason.

"Magic Bananas usually torture Earth during bananaquakes. Magic Bananas eat double rainbows so there can be a single rainbow. Thats one of the reasons double rainbows are rarely seen.

Magic Bananas get their smartness from gorillas and their hair. Magic bananas are used as cars for fairies. Magic Bananas carry a disease you can get which is called Bananacidus so be careful. Magic Bananas are made from magical rainbow flavored burritos."
What article is that?
Quoting interstatelover7165:

what storm is no. four?What article is that?

Wikipedia's Main Page talk.
Jefferson County,TX near TX/LA border under another freeze warning, I think Houston is gonna get another freeze tonight as well...
Quoting interstatelover7165:

what storm is no. four?What article is that?
1985,s Elena..The rest are Allen (with Isis in the Pacific) Hugo, Frederic, Alicia and Gilbert.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
People enjoy vandalizing Wikipedia for some unknown reason.

"Magic Bananas usually torture Earth during bananaquakes. Magic Bananas eat double rainbows so there can be a single rainbow. Thats one of the reasons double rainbows are rarely seen.

Magic Bananas get their smartness from gorillas and their hair. Magic bananas are used as cars for fairies. Magic Bananas carry a disease you can get which is called Bananacidus so be careful. Magic Bananas are made from magical rainbow flavored burritos."
There's an anime called Magic Banana.
For anybody who cares, these articles represent the best articles on the Encyclopedia, and have been through a lot....You won't find many mistakes, if any, in these.

Link
Quoting RitaEvac:
Damn, Alicia was small

Hurricane Alicia was a fairly small but very costly hurricane to affect the state of Texas. The strongest wind gusts measured were 102 mph at Galveston and 99 mph at Hobby airport. The strongest winds were over Galveston Bay. Gusts over 120.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Atlanta




Hey, good luck on the snow. Your area might actually get a small accumulation. Here down in Macon not so much, but I'm still hoping to see some flakes fly in the morning.

It's unbelievable that places such as Jackson TN are already seeing snow stick and are forecast to get as much as half a foot of snow from this. In November. Amazing.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wikipedia's Main Page talk.
Read the whole page...wasn't there...musta have been changed.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
rEad the whole page...wasn't there...musta have been changed.

Reverted, yeah.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Damn, Alicia was small

Andrew was small too...
Quoting hydrus:
Andrew was small too...

The O in Florida looks like a zero.
Quoting interstatelover7165:

The O in Florida looks like a zero.

Fl0rida.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Hey, good luck on the snow. Your area might actually get a small accumulation. Here down in Macon not so much, but I'm still hoping to see some flakes fly in the morning.

It's unbelievable that places such as Jackson TN are already seeing snow stick and are forecast to get as much as half a foot of snow from this. In November. Amazing.
Yah looked like the snow overnight is unlikely, not enough moister. Gotta wait till morning.
Quoting washingtonian115:
God dammit.Does anybody know when the real cold is suppose to come to D.C???.And I'm not talking about that p**** "supposed" cold that suppose to show up mid week.Yeah upper 40's and low 50's we can handle.Where is the 30's so that I can get into my holiday winter mood completely.Feels like I'm living in freaking Florida right now.

No time soon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No time soon.
(Smh).it would also be nice to have a early cold shot so that we can get a chance of some snow in these parts.
Hurricane Bertha.1996 Fran , also in96.. Hurricane Michelle. Hurricane Isodor Hurricane Lili. Hurricane Claudette. Hurricane Fabian. Bermuda,s worst since 1926. Hurricane Isabel.. Hurricane Charley..Of which I had the unfortunate pleasure.. Frances. Ivan. And Jeanne...Which also was unpleasant..
Quoting hydrus:
Hurricane Bertha.1996 Fran , also in96.. Hurricane Michelle. Hurricane Isodor Hurricane Lili. Hurricane Claudette. Hurricane Fabian. Bermuda,s worst since 1926. Hurricane Isabel.. Hurricane Charley..Of which I had the unfortunate pleasure.. Frances. Ivan. And Jeanne...Which also was unpleasant..
Poor Florida.Always getting attacked by hurricanes.
Damn you guys just arn't liked by them are yall?.And then also some of those hurricane were making landfall on the Yucatan penisula.Hurricanes just love their penisula's.
Taz if your here make sure to enjoy the northern light show a large cme is supposed to hit earth also you live in tronso right
Isn't this how our last Invest started out?
Quoting washingtonian115:
What part of Maryland?

Pasadena
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
People enjoy vandalizing Wikipedia for some unknown reason.

"Magic Bananas usually torture Earth during bananaquakes. Magic Bananas eat double rainbows so there can be a single rainbow. Thats one of the reasons double rainbows are rarely seen.

Magic Bananas get their smartness from gorillas and their hair. Magic bananas are used as cars for fairies. Magic Bananas carry a disease you can get which is called Bananacidus so be careful. Magic Bananas are made from magical rainbow flavored burritos."

LOL i got a kick outta that
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Isn't this how our last Invest started out?

Exactly.

Quoting RitaEvac:
GFS bringing down a 1040mb ridge into TX next Tuesday, Arctic outbreak/Blue Norther. Showing front plowing thru TX Sunday with the ridge directly over TX Tuesday.

Ah crap! The freeze warning 2 nights in  a row is bad enough. I'm not ready for summer but that's enough of winter for me. : -)  The only benefit of the fronts has been a little rain. It was a weird hurricane season.  As much as I hate to say it...we need a few of those tropical systems to plow through us come summer. Maybe I need to be more specific this year. No imposters like Don. Or one sided, dry sided nightmares like Lee to our east.  Ah c'mon Mother Nature send us a slow soaking storm or two.  And last but not least, I think I speak for all Cowboys fans when I say, GO SAINTS! Lol. Keep warm everyone. :)
Quoting shadoclown45:
Taz if your here make sure to enjoy the northern light show a large cme is supposed to hit earth also you live in tronso right



CA
Quoting KoritheMan:
This is a bit off topic, but I'm off until Wednesday. I just got a job at Wal Mart three weeks ago, and I find it absolutely hilarious how they continually praise the company as authentic, qualitative, and generally lucrative, but that is far from the truth. My dad, by some miracle, stayed there for 20 years, and eventually netted himself a position as a manager. He constantly spoke vile of the company, even making as much he was. I've only been there for three weeks, and I already hate it. When I was doing my CBLs, they were like "You've joined a great company, with many lucrative career options". Oh, and we can't forget about that "customers are our top priority" bull****, either. No they're not, you are just using them as a scapegoat when profit's your real gone.

I've also learned that from the time you get there to the time you get off, you are enslaved to the company.

I have to wonder how my dad remained there for as long as he did.

Suck it up and stop complaining, you are making money. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Suck it up and stop complaining, you are making mopey. :P

Making what?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Suck it up and stop complaining, you are making mopey. :P


You have no idea how bad it is.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Tue 29???
Quoting crandles:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Tue 29???


lololololo
Quoting KoritheMan:


You have no idea how bad it is.

Its Wally-world, can't be that bad. ;)

Quoting KoritheMan:
This is a bit off topic, but I'm off until Wednesday. I just got a job at Wal Mart three weeks ago, and I find it absolutely hilarious how they continually praise the company as authentic, qualitative, and generally lucrative, but that is far from the truth. My dad, by some miracle, stayed there for 20 years, and eventually netted himself a position as a manager. He constantly spoke vile of the company, even making as much he was. I've only been there for three weeks, and I already hate it. When I was doing my CBLs, they were like "You've joined a great company, with many lucrative career options". Oh, and we can't forget about that "customers are our top priority" bull****, either. No they're not, you are just using them as a scapegoat when profit's your real gone.

I've also learned that from the time you get there to the time you get off, you are enslaved to the company.

I have to wonder how my dad remained there for as long as he did.

Lol. Sorry not laughing at ya. Just havin deja vu. You sound exactly like my daughter who has recently followed her dad into that company. Although to be honest I think her biggest problem is that she was a manager at her previous job and now she's not. Lesson learned about losing your temper and keeping your mouth shut. Lol. There is money to be made there I guess just like anywhere. My advice to you and her hang in there kid. :)
Obviously desparate for end of season.

Meanwhile the graphical outlook says both 1PM and 7PM (as well as update being late).
Quoting KoritheMan:
This is a bit off topic, but I'm off until Wednesday. I just got a job at Wal Mart three weeks ago, and I find it absolutely hilarious how they continually praise the company as authentic, qualitative, and generally lucrative, but that is far from the truth. My dad, by some miracle, stayed there for 20 years, and eventually netted himself a position as a manager. He constantly spoke vile of the company, even making as much he was. I've only been there for three weeks, and I already hate it. When I was doing my CBLs, they were like "You've joined a great company, with many lucrative career options". Oh, and we can't forget about that "customers are our top priority" bull****, either. No they're not, you are just using them as a scapegoat when profit's your real goal.

I've also learned that from the time you get there to the time you get off, you are enslaved to the company.

I have to wonder how my dad remained there for as long as he did.


Sad but true: If you don't like your job 25 million Americans would be glad to have it for you.

Current local weather for me in Fairfax, VA: cloudy and 53 degrees.
No sunlight for me, I guess.

Tonight
68 °F
T-storms
40% chance of precipitation

Tomorrow
85 °F
Rain Showers
40% chance of precipitation

Tomorrow Night
68 °F
Rain Showers
40% chance of precipitation

Wednesday
86 | 67 °F
Rain Showers
20% chance of precipitation

Thursday
85 | 67 °F
Rain Showers
50% chance of precipitation

Friday
85 | 67 °F
Rain Showers
40% chance of precipitation
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Sorry not laughing at ya. Just havin deja vu. You sound exactly like my daughter who has recently followed her dad into that company. Although to be honest I think her biggest problem is that she was a manager at her previous job and now she's not. Lesson learned about losing your temper and keeping your mouth shut. Lol. There is money to be made there I guess just like anywhere. My advice to you and her hang in there kid. :)


My dad says "use it only for what you need to get out of it". I try using that as my motivation, but it's not easy.
Quoting crandles:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Tue 29???
Can we please get Avila in here fast? First of all, we need to extend the hurricane season 2 more months. We are faced with the possibility of Super Sub Tropical Storm Tammy, an enormous threat to the Southeast coast. Pressures are falling, blood pressures are rising, isobars tightenening..and what do we get??? NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24??
Whats going on here?????
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
No sunlight for me, I guess.

Tonight
68 °F
T-storms
40% chance of precipitation

Tomorrow
85 °F
Rain Showers
40% chance of precipitation

Tomorrow Night
68 °F
Rain Showers
40% chance of precipitation

Wednesday
86 | 67 °F
Rain Showers
20% chance of precipitation

Thursday
85 | 67 °F
Rain Showers
50% chance of precipitation

Friday
85 | 67 °F
Rain Showers
40% chance of precipitation


I've always found sunshine to be boring anyway. Then again, I suppose if you're on an island like Puerto Rico, things are a bit different.
Quoting KoritheMan:


My dad says "use it only for what you need to get out of it". I try using that as my motivation, but it's not easy.

I'd say that's a fair enough statement. I hope it gets better for you. Well, at least you're not salaried yet. ;-)

Quoting AtHomeInTX:




Touche. ;)
121. MTWX
This should get everyone in North Mississippi in the Christmas Sperit!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH...

.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO A
RAIN SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.

MSZ002>006-009-014>017-TNZ053-089>092-290630-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0003.111129T0000Z-111129T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0006.111129T0000Z-111129T1800Z/
MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-UNION-
PONTOTOC-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA-CHESTER-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDI N-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORINTH...IUKA...BOONEVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH
417 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...6 PM CST THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY. THE PERIOD
OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT UNTIL 6
AM CST TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY DISRUPT TRAVEL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

As long as it's not around 80 in West Palm Beach during Christmas week, I will be happy.
NOAA has released a video of the entire 2011 Atlantic hurricane season:



Huge, high-quality version available here.
Quoting Neapolitan:
NOAA has released a video of the entire 2011 Atlantic hurricane season:


Its entirely too long though -- There should be a lot more videos being made and uploaded on Youtube in the coming weeks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its entirely too long though -- There should be a lot more videos being made and uploaded on Youtube in the coming weeks.

How is it too long? It covers six months. You know, like hurricane season itself...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Touche. ;)


And if you don't like the cards you've been dealt, make a few new ones of your own. Five aces always beats a royal flush.
Quoting rod2635:


And if you don't like the cards you've been dealt, make a few new ones of your own. Five aces always beats a royal flush.


Well, I'm gonna try getting a new job when I come back from Ohio next year (part of the reason I got this job in the first place).
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, I'm gonna try getting a new job when I come back from Ohio next year (part of the reason I got this job in the first place).


And you'll likely succeed, as they will see that you've been employed, which is what people hiring look for.
Quoting KoritheMan:


You have no idea how bad it is.
awww baby kori, whats so bad about it? ;(



lol seriously though, whars the matter
Quoting rod2635:


And you'll likely succeed, as they will see that you've been employed, which is what people hiring look for.


Yeah, but if there's one thing I've learned in life, it's that you can never be certain of anything. Curveballs are common.
29 NOV 2011 Tropical Cyclone 05A 013000UTC

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1000.3mb/ 39.0kt

Raw T# 2.3
Adj T# 2.3
Final T# 2.4
Quoting TomTaylor:
awww baby kori, whats so bad about it? ;(



lol seriously though, whars the matter


My manager is a workaholic, for one thing. Which I suppose is a respectable quality, but still. Yesterday I overheard him talking about how he's "sick and tired" of his associates always being on lunch when he needs them. Seriously, wtf? You're the one who gave them lunch, yet you're complaining about it?
My first job was Wall-mart.
Quoting TuMama:
My first job was Wall-mart.


How long were you there?
Quoting KoritheMan:


How long were you there?


I was there eight years and moved into deli department management. I found out it would be a dead end job for me because I did not kiss the behind of upper management when they came in my store. I left and start my own company.
Quoting TuMama:


I was there eight years and moved into deli department management. I found out it would be a dead end job for me because I did not kiss the behind of upper management when they came in my store. I left and start my own company.


That's precisely the thing: everyone wants you to kiss their ass there, and if you don't you can GTFO.
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's precisely the thing: everyone wants you to kiss their ass there, and if you don't you can GTFO.


My problem came when divisional manager came and started going through a list of things he didn't like about my deli. I told him his list was impossible when they always say "cut hours cut hours". I can not do it with no help. He act like he understood. I got extra help for one week and then was told to "cut hours". I say forget it and leave.
Area near 5S, 78E looking quite nice tonight
Quoting TuMama:


My problem came when divisional manager came and started going through a list of things he didn't like about my deli. I told him his list was impossible when they always say "cut hours cut hours". I can not do it with no help. He act like he understood. I got extra help for one week and then was told to "cut hours". I say forget it and leave.


See? That's the kind of bull**** I've come to expect from this company. And this is coming from someone with very little experience with the company. As time goes on, the more I grow to hate it.
Quoting KoritheMan:


My manager is a workaholic, for one thing. Which I suppose is a respectable quality, but still. Yesterday I overheard him talking about how he's "sick and tired" of his associates always being on lunch when he needs them. Seriously, wtf? You're the one who gave them lunch, yet you're complaining about it?
So it sounds like your manager and Walmart's false advertisement to its employees is whats making you mad...

If you really don't like it you can always leave, I'm 100% confident that if you truly looked you could find a better job than your current one.

Personally I've never been a big fan of Walmart. Target all day!

Quoting TomTaylor:

If you really don't like it you can always leave, I'm 100% confident that if you truly looked you could find a better job than your current one.
Considering this is my first job, that's doubtful. I should have worked as soon as I was legally able to, even if it was fast food. My inexperience has put me in a bind, one which I detest with every fiber of my being.
Quoting washingtonian115:
God dammit.Does anybody know when the real cold is suppose to come to D.C???.And I'm not talking about that p**** "supposed" cold that suppose to show up mid week.Yeah upper 40's and low 50's we can handle.Where is the 30's so that I can get into my holiday winter mood completely.Feels like I'm living in freaking Florida right now.


Mid-month to around the Winter Solstice. I'm afraid the coming cold will resemble December 1996 and especially December 1989! If all pans out, this'll be a shocker to most in the East!!!
Do you know what's interesting? How the NWS can relay all types of non weather emergency messages. Which is odd because many times I look on the NWS alert map and I see a Child Abduction Emergency which is not related to weather at all but it's on the map, so oh well...
I'm not naming any names, but somebody has a mouth on them tonight. [KoritheMan].

I'm just joking. :P

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not naming any names, but somebody has a mouth on them tonight. [KoritheMan].

I'm just joking. :P
At least I censor it. ;)

Quoting hurricaneben:
Do you know what's interesting? How the NWS can relay all types of non weather emergency messages. Which is odd because many times I look on the NWS alert map and I see a Child Abduction Emergency which is not related to weather at all but it's on the map, so oh well...
I actually never noticed that. Interesting.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I actually never noticed that. Interesting.


I mean...really, one time I went on the map and saw a (Hazardous Materials Warning) on a weather site--LOL what the hell? So much for the "National Weather Service" title. But I guess that's the only way it could get transmitted onto the EAS suppose a real emergency like a chemical release occurs.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Considering this is my first job, that's doubtful. I should have worked as soon as I was legally able to, even if it was fast food. My inexperience has put me in a bind, one which I detest with every fiber of my being.
Well if it is bugging you, start looking now. Sooner the better, right?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not naming any names, but somebody has a mouth on them tonight. [KoritheMan].

I'm just joking. :P
I know, some people these days...
No offense to don but I was too entirely amused as he crossed the Gom and he was all like here I come Texas then when he hit Texas he just exploded into nothing.
An inevitable Storm?

Iran will have five nukes by April 2012. Only 2-3 months left for military option
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 14, 2011, 3:13 PM (GMT 02:00)
According to the briefing given to a closed meeting of Jewish leaders in New York Sunday, Nov. 13, the window of opportunity for stopping Iran attaining a nuclear weapon is closing fast, debkafile's sources report. It will shut down altogether after late March 2012. The intelligence reaching US President Barak Obama is that by April, Iran will already have five nuclear bombs or warheads and military action then would generate a dangerous level of radioactive contamination across the Gulf region, the main source of the world's energy............



Middle East firestorm: Worsening crisis may soon engulf region in %u2018unthinkable%u2019 nightmare
Posted on November 28, 2011
November 28, 2011 - TEHRAN - An explosion rocked the western Iranian city of Isfahan on Monday, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, adding that the blast was heard in several parts of the city. The reported incident occurred about two weeks after Gen. Hasan Tehrani Moghaddam was killed together with 20 other Guard members Nov. 12 at a military site outside Bidganeh village, 40 kilometers southwest of Tehran. The Revolutionary Guard said the accidental explosion occurred while military personnel were transporting munitions. It should be noted that Iran operates a uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, one with an important function in the chain of Iran%u2019s nuclear program.
Quoting Neapolitan:
NOAA has released a video of the entire 2011 Atlantic hurricane season:



Huge, high-quality version available here.


That's cool!!! I'd like to see that for some other years... ...like 04 05!!!
Quoting weatherbro:


Mid-month to around the Winter Solstice. I'm afraid the coming cold will resemble December 1996 and especially December 1989! If all pans out, this'll be a shocker to most in the East!!!

What happened 1989 I'm sorry I wasn't quite alive back then.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Well if it is bugging you, start looking now. Sooner the better, right?
With only a few weeks of employment experience, barring places like McDonalds, I'm unlikely to find a better job. I only got this one because I had leads.

I think it is prudent to wait at least a few months to establish a resume.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


That's cool!!! I'd like to see that for some other years... ...like 04 05!!!


2005

On topic...

Unnamed tropical storm

September 1 - September 3

A short-lived tropical storm formed midway between Bermuda and Atlantic Canada at the start of September. It did not affect land.

A cold front, the same one that recurved Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Jose, moved into the western Atlantic on August 29. Showers and thunderstorms began to increase along the front near 1200 UTC August 31 in a position about 500 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. An area of low pressure is assumed to have formed a few hours later as the low moved steadily northward. The low continued to organize as it remained within an environment of relatively light vertical shear. Based on satellite and scatterometer data, the low is estimated to have become a tropical depression near 0600 UTC September 1 while located about 450 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. The cyclone began to accelerate northeast as it became enraptured in high latitude southwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States. At the same time, southwesterly shear associated with an upper low over the central Atlantic began impacting the tropical cyclone, displacing most of the convection to the north of the low-level center. A brief reduction in the shear occurred on September 2, allowing the cyclone to reach its peak intensity of 35 kt around 0600 UTC that day. The tropical storm began to weaken thereafter as it moved across cooler waters and encountered even stronger shear. The tropical storm dissipated near 0000 UTC September 3 while located approximately 500 miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

The post-tropical remnant low soon became absorbed by a frontal zone around 1200 UTC that day.
Quoting washingtonian115:


God dammit.Does anybody know when the real cold is suppose to come to D.C???.And I'm not talking about that p**** "supposed" cold that suppose to show up mid week.Yeah upper 40's and low 50's we can handle.Where is the 30's so that I can get into my holiday winter mood completely.Feels like I'm living in freaking Florida right now.
Easy there speed racer.

The problem has been a strong ridge setting up south of the Aleutian island chain. This has promoted a strong trough over Alaska and western Canada which has gone on to promote further ridging down the jetsteam, or over the eastern US. This anomalous ridging has kept you guys warmer than normal and also kept the storm track to the north of you guys.



This set up is typical of La Ninas and negative/cold PDOs, so its no surprise to see it showing up. During La Ninas the east coast is usually warmer than normal and drier in the SE (wetter in the NE) due to the very slight anomalous riding that develops over the SE US.

Looking out over the next week the GFS and ECMWF both forecast a shift in the longwave pattern over North America. Over the next few days anomalous riding is forecasted to build over the Pacific Northwest as troughiness sets up over the Aleutian islands. This favors troughing over the east coast and central US, however, right now the models aren't too strong with this trough so I wouldn't expect snow, but if this forecast verifies you can expect cooler temps and stormier weather.

Quoting sunlinepr:


2005



Wow!!! Thanks!!! I didn't even know these were available.
Quoting sunlinepr:


2005


It seems like every storm during the season wanted to rapidly intensify. I'd love to see a season like 2005 again, total number of storms and intensity wise, but somehow without damage or fatalities.
Quoting shadoclown45:

What happened 1989 I'm sorry I wasn't quite alive back then.


That year November had a raging Pacific Jet-flooding the East with warm air. But by Christmas Time(mid-late December), the arctic air came with a vengeance!

It even snowed on Christmas eve in Orlando. Although there were no official accumulations. A few neighborhoods(mainly around Altamonte Springs) claimed to have enough snow to make baby snowmen.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It seems like every storm during the season wanted to rapidly intensify. I'd love to see a season like 2005 again, total number of storms and intensity wise, but somehow without damage or fatalities.


Wouldn't happen. It's a statistical impossibility.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Wouldn't happen. It's a statistical impossibility.

Ok Captain Technical.
adios 2011 hurricanes....

next one in line
MMXII !!!
Quoting weatherbro:


That year November had a raging Pacific Jet-flooding the East with warm air. But by Christmas Time(mid-late December), the arctic air came with a vengeance!

It even snowed on Christmas eve in Orlando. Although there were no official accumulations. A few neighborhoods(mainly around Altamonte Springs) claimed to have enough snow to make baby snowmen.

Thanks I hope that happens but with a reasonable amount of snow
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ok Captain Technical.


Technicalities are extremely important.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Iran will have five nukes by April 2012. Only 2-3 months left for military option
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 14, 2011, 3:13 PM (GMT+02:00)
According to the briefing given to a closed meeting of Jewish leaders in New York Sunday, Nov. 13, the window of opportunity for stopping Iran attaining a nuclear weapon is closing fast, debkafile's sources report. It will shut down altogether after late March 2012. The intelligence reaching US President Barak Obama is that by April, Iran will already have five nuclear bombs or warheads and military action then would generate a dangerous level of radioactive contamination across the Gulf region, the main source of the world's energy............


Iran probably will only use them as a deterrent. Only 2 nuclear bombs have been launched at an enemy, the thousands that the USSR and US built during the cold war were only used as deterrents. The nuclear weapons that NK has, deterrents to get better relations with the west. Iran would be pretty stupid to launch them at a neighbour or start a war with any larger alliance before becoming more powerful. 5 nuclear bombs aren't much against an alliance of nations with thousands.
05A looks pathetic...i REALLY want another Ophelia right now, lol
Quoting yqt1001:


Iran probably will only use them as a deterrent. Only 2 nuclear bombs have been launched at an enemy, the thousands that the USSR and US built during the cold war were only used as deterrents. The nuclear weapons that NK has, deterrents to get better relations with the west. Iran would be pretty stupid to launch them at a neighbour or start a war with any larger alliance before becoming more powerful. 5 nuclear bombs aren't much against an alliance of nations with thousands.


i am seriously not going to start anything....but in the book of St. Luke in the bible, Jesus said this would happen. "nation will rise against nation, kingdom against kingdom.." just figured i would throw that in. no harm intended, back to snow and tropics lol:D
you know, i really wish i was in nashville right now....good country music and snow out the window lol
Quoting yqt1001:


Iran probably will only use them as a deterrent. Only 2 nuclear bombs have been launched at an enemy, the thousands that the USSR and US built during the cold war were only used as deterrents. The nuclear weapons that NK has, deterrents to get better relations with the west. Iran would be pretty stupid to launch them at a neighbour or start a war with any larger alliance before becoming more powerful. 5 nuclear bombs aren't much against an alliance of nations with thousands.


USSR and US cold war had no religious implications. But this is a religious conflict. Don't you think this would add a different weight on the conflict?
If you like Miles; if you like electric jazz.... Isle of Wright Festival (29-08-1970] - When asked Miles about the name of the piece he said: "Call it anything"

Lineup: Miles, Dave Holland, Chic Corea, Keith Jarret, Jack DeJohnette, Airto Moreira, Gary Bartz.

Quoting sunlinepr:


USSR and US cold war had no religious implications. But this is a religious conflict. Don't you think this would add a different weight on the conflict?


USSR and US had a political ideology difference, capitalism has always been against communism. Yes, islam vs a mainly christianity nation will have a different weight on a conflict, but islam isn't as against christianity as most people think. Iran actually is more against the US's foreign policy more than its religion. In this sense, the Cold War was way hotter than this will be until Iran starts becoming a larger regional power and starts trying to become a world power. The Soviet Union did the same thing too if you look back to the years preceding WW2.
Quoting yqt1001:


USSR and US had a political ideology difference, capitalism has always been against communism. Yes, islam vs a mainly christianity nation will have a different weight on a conflict, but islam isn't as against christianity as most people think. Iran actually is more against the US's foreign policy more than its religion. In this sense, the Cold War was way hotter than this will be until Iran starts becoming a larger regional power and starts trying to become a world power. The Soviet Union did the same thing too if you look back to the years preceding WW2.


in our Sunday night study of the end times, the preacher was mentioning how russia is rearing its head with the nuclear threat, missles and all that. He also said that he didnt think Russia would actually use money to invest in these warheads, for some reason i have now forgotten. i think it had something to do with Israel. Russia, Turkey, Iran, Etheopia could possibly become allies, and attack Israel. thats prophesized. World is just a mess nowadays...
Quoting sunlinepr:
An inevitable Storm?

Iran will have five nukes by April 2012. Only 2-3 months left for military option
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 14, 2011, 3:13 PM (GMT 02:00)
According to the briefing given to a closed meeting of Jewish leaders in New York Sunday, Nov. 13, the window of opportunity for stopping Iran attaining a nuclear weapon is closing fast, debkafile's sources report. It will shut down altogether after late March 2012. The intelligence reaching US President Barak Obama is that by April, Iran will already have five nuclear bombs or warheads and military action then would generate a dangerous level of radioactive contamination across the Gulf region, the main source of the world's energy............



Middle East firestorm: Worsening crisis may soon engulf region in %u2018unthinkable%u2019 nightmare
Posted on November 28, 2011
November 28, 2011 - TEHRAN - An explosion rocked the western Iranian city of Isfahan on Monday, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, adding that the blast was heard in several parts of the city. The reported incident occurred about two weeks after Gen. Hasan Tehrani Moghaddam was killed together with 20 other Guard members Nov. 12 at a military site outside Bidganeh village, 40 kilometers southwest of Tehran. The Revolutionary Guard said the accidental explosion occurred while military personnel were transporting munitions. It should be noted that Iran operates a uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, one with an important function in the chain of Iran%u2019s nuclear program.

I'd take anything on the DEBKAfile site with a huge grain of salt. It's on a par with WorldNetDaily, and about as credible. According to an article in the Jewish Journal, not even 10% of what's found there is reliable, mostly because it relies on anonymous sources. That, combined with its very hawkish neocon leanings, should give anyone who reads it pause...
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'd take anything on the DEBKAfile site with a huge grain of salt. It's on a par with WorldNetDaily, and about as credible. According to an article in the Jewish Journal, not even 10% of what's found there is reliable, mostly because it relies on anonymous sources. That, combined with its very hawkish neocon leaning, should give anyone who reads it pause...


Checked out for that news in the Jewish Journal and it looks real:

November 28, 2011
Sound of blast reported in Iran’s Isfahan City, home to key nuclear facility

by Hossein Jaseb, Reuters

Share8

The sound of an apparent explosion was heard from Iran’s Isfahan city on Monday afternoon, the head of the judiciary in the province said, but the province’s deputy governor denied that there had been a big blast.

“In the afternoon, there was a noise like an explosion, but we don’t have any information from security forces on the source of the noise,” provincial judiciary head Gholamreza Ansari was quoted as saying by ISNA news agency.

However, Mehr news agency quoted Deputy Governor Mohammad Mehdi Ismaili as saying: “So far no report of a major explosion has been heard from any government body in Isfahan.”

State run Press TV, also citing Ismaili, said the report of an explosion was “completely baseless and fabricated.”

An important Iranian nuclear facility involved in processing uranium is located near Isfahan city, although Iranian media reports of the incident did not refer to it.......


Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ok Captain Technical.



LOL
Quoting SPLbeater:


in our Sunday night study of the end times, the preacher was mentioning how russia is rearing its head with the nuclear threat, missles and all that. He also said that he didnt think Russia would actually use money to invest in these warheads, for some reason i have now forgotten. i think it had something to do with Israel. Russia, Turkey, Iran, Etheopia could possibly become allies, and attack Israel. thats prophesized. World is just a mess nowadays...


Russia is definitely putting money into missiles, just not even close to the amount it did back in the Soviet era or the amount the US does now. But as far as Russia allying with Iran; I find that unlikely, Russia would be more likely to ally with NATO which is nearly impossible. Russia isn't as strong as many people think it is, it has about as much of the world power as India does. People are still horrified by Russia because of the Cold War. However, Putin is about as much of a psychomaniac as Stalin is, so you never know. XD

Also, the world is a mess because there is no race between superpowers. Only the US really earns the superpower title, no one else really does. People are trying to fight for the coveted title, at which point the two superpowers will fight it out; either Cold War style or WW2 style.

Otherwise, this is really off topic, so I'll shut up.
2011 produced 18 Named storms, and it appears while ive been taking a break from the tropics, the NHC identified another system near Bermuda in September?
Wow, so if 93L get designated as a unnamed subtropical storm that would give us 20 Named storms right?
Quoting yqt1001:


Russia is definitely putting money into missiles, just not even close to the amount it did back in the Soviet era or the amount the US does now. But as far as Russia allying with Iran; I find that unlikely, Russia would be more likely to ally with NATO which is nearly impossible. Russia isn't as strong as many people think it is, it has about as much of the world power as India does. People are still horrified by Russia because of the Cold War. However, Putin is about as much of a psychomaniac as Stalin is, so you never know. XD


Putin is coming back next year; parallel to China's year of the dragon festivities... Looks like they are into joining forces.... and like you said, you can expect anything from that psyco...
60 hrs CMC



81 hrs GFS



84hrs NGP

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
2011 produced 18 Named storms, and it appears while ive been taking a break from the tropics, the NHC identified another system near Bermuda in September?
Wow, so if 93L get designated as a unnamed subtropical storm that would give us 20 Named storms right?




2011 had 19 name storms not 18
Quoting yqt1001:


Russia is definitely putting money into missiles, just not even close to the amount it did back in the Soviet era or the amount the US does now. But as far as Russia allying with Iran; I find that unlikely, Russia would be more likely to ally with NATO which is nearly impossible. Russia isn't as strong as many people think it is, it has about as much of the world power as India does. People are still horrified by Russia because of the Cold War. However, Putin is about as much of a psychomaniac as Stalin is, so you never know. XD

Also, the world is a mess because there is no race between superpowers. Only the US really earns the superpower title, no one else really does. People are trying to fight for the coveted title, at which point the two superpowers will fight it out; either Cold War style or WW2 style.

Otherwise, this is really off topic, so I'll shut up.


lol, i made mistake. Russie wouldnt be in the group. it would be Iran, Ethiopia, Turkey and Syria is #4 i think....i ask him wednesday. how do you see this as off topic, appears 65% of us are talkin bout it? LOL
Quoting Tazmanian:




2011 had 19 name storms not 18


TECHNICALLY....it was 18, cuz #19 was un-named lol. but as far as TS's go, yes it was 19 no doubt
Just found an article for all the offseason upgrades.
Heres the Link
The Semi-Final #'s for the 2011 Hurricane Season:
Tropical Storm Arlene: 65 Mph
Tropical Storm Bret: 65 Mph
Tropical Storm Cindy: 70 Mph(UPGRADED)
Tropical Storm Don: 50 Mph
Tropcial Storm Emily: 50 Mph
Tropical Storm Franklin: 45 Mph
Tropical Storm Gert: 65 Mph
Tropical Storm Harvey: 60 Mph
Major Hurricane Irene: 120 Mph
Unnamed Cyclone (#19)~ UPGRADED TO NS
Tropical Storm Jose: 45 Mph
Major Hurricane Katia: 135 Mph
Tropical Storm Lee: 60 Mph
Hurricane Maria: 80 Mph
Hurricane Nate: 75 Mph(UPDRAGED to Hurricane)
Major Hurricane Ophelia: 140 Mph
Hurricane Philippe: 90 Mph
Hurricane Rina: 110 Mph
Tropical Storm Sean: 65 Mph
~Possibly another system in the next 3 to 4 days~

Semi-Final Season Total:
20 TC
19 NS
7 HUR
3 M HUR

Tolls~
Death:
120

Costs:
$11,633,200
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'd take anything on the DEBKAfile site with a huge grain of salt. It's on a par with WorldNetDaily, and about as credible. According to an article in the Jewish Journal, not even 10% of what's found there is reliable, mostly because it relies on anonymous sources. That, combined with its very hawkish neocon leanings, should give anyone who reads it pause...


Nea, also YNet confirms the other story.... It was published 6/6/11

Researcher: Iran can produce nuke within 2 months

Airstrikes can no longer stop nuclear program, US can do nothing short of military occupation, says report

Yitzhak Benhorin Published: 06.06.11, 09:04 / Israel News

The Iranian regime is closer than ever before to creating a nuclear bomb, according to RAND Corporation researcher Gregory S. Jones.
At its current rate of uranium enrichment, Tehran could have enough for its first bomb within eight weeks, Jones said in a report published this week.

Link
AmyRochelleColon


You all ever wonder WHO this Blogger is.....check in to it if you want a laugh! ROFLMAO
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Just found an article for all the offseason upgrades.
Heres the Link
The Semi-Final #'s for the 2011 Hurricane Season:
Tropical Storm Arlene: 65 Mph
Tropical Storm Bret: 65 Mph
Tropical Storm Cindy: 70 Mph(UPGRADED)
Tropical Storm Don: 50 Mph
Tropcial Storm Emily: 50 Mph
Tropical Storm Franklin: 45 Mph
Tropical Storm Gert: 65 Mph
Tropical Storm Harvey: 60 Mph
Major Hurricane Irene: 120 Mph
Unnamed Cyclone (#19)~ UPGRADED TO NS
Tropical Storm Jose: 45 Mph
Major Hurricane Katia: 135 Mph
Tropical Storm Lee: 60 Mph
Hurricane Maria: 80 Mph
Hurricane Nate: 75 Mph(UPDRAGED to Hurricane)
Major Hurricane Ophelia: 140 Mph
Hurricane Philippe: 90 Mph
Hurricane Rina: 110 Mph
Tropical Storm Sean: 65 Mph
~Possibly another system in the next 3 to 4 days~

Semi-Final Season Total:
20 TC
19 NS
7 HUR
3 M HUR

Tolls~
Death:
120

Costs:
$11,633,200




what about TD 10?
night everyone
Quoting TampaSpin:
AmyRochelleColon


You all ever wonder WHO this Blogger is.....check in to it if you want a laugh! ROFLMAO
Please enlighten us.
Quoting TampaSpin:


You better hope Walmart Management does not see this.....GOOD THING I DON'T MANAGE FOR THEM.....YOU WOULD BE POOOOFFF!

Why's that? If you worked for them, would you suddenly stop supporting the First Amendment?
dang its raining hard....
Good evening from Jamaica
Here is my two cents worth...
a quote from Buzzmachine.com

* Supply of disinformation: Jay Rosen argued that we are seeing a disturbing trend in "verification in reverse:" taking a fact and unmaking it, until people don't believe it anymore. He cited the birthers and climate-change deniers as well as Mitt Romney's much-fact-checked and debunked campaign commercial. He said there is a growing supply of "public untruths." He argued: "Verification in reverse should be a beat" We have to start ranking public untruths by their seriousness and spread - we have to start IDing the ones that are out there and influencing public conversation, even though they're already being fact-checked. We have to start acknowledging what's going on with systematically distorting truth"

http://www.buzzmachine.com/2011/11/28/scaling-fac t-checking/
Quoting Tazmanian:




what about TD 10?


The NHC has only published their Tropical Cyclone Reports on Cindy, Don, Franklin, Gert, and Nate. Any of the other storms.. including 10.. can still technically see changes until the reports are finished.
Link
Here's my report on Maria. Trying to churn them out quickly to meet the December 1 deadline, although at this point I still think that's impossible.

Hurricane Maria

September 6 - September 16

Maria was a tropical cyclone which briefly became a hurricane before making landfall in Newfoundland. Maria was the second in a series of hurricanes to strike Atlantic Canada in 2011, the other being Hurricane Ophelia.

Maria developed from a tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa on September 1. As the wave moved westward across the tropical Atlantic, it generated convection, but moderate easterly shear prevented significant development. The wave slowly organized, and as the shear relaxed, a large burst of convection formed along the wave axis early on September 6. A large convective band formed to the west of the center, and the system is estimated to have become a tropical depression near 1800 UTC that day while located about 1700 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The cyclone became a tropical storm around 1200 UTC September 7. Maria initially strengthened, but this was halted as the cyclone encountered southwesterly shear the next day, associated with a persistent mid-oceanic trough. During this time, satellite, reconnaissance, and surface data showed that the low-level center associated with the tropical cyclone was becoming diffuse and poorly-defined. In fact, objective analyses of the surface wind field suggests that Maria lacked a well-defined surface circulation until around 1800 UTC September 9, when a broad surface circulation redeveloped. Thus, Maria is estimated to have degenerated into a strong tropical wave with tropical storm force winds in squalls from around 0600 UTC September 8 until 1800 UTC September 9.

By 0000 UTC September 11, Maria became better organized, although strengthening remained slow for the next several days since the system was still battling shear. Maria entered a region of lower shear as it neared the latitude of Bermuda. As the cyclone passed west of that island on September 15, it is assumed to have become a hurricane just after 1800 UTC. At this time, Maria was centered roughly 125 miles west of Bermuda. Around 0000 UTC September 16, Maria reached its peak intensity of 70 kt while located about 600 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. As Maria accelerated toward southeastern Newfoundland, it became extratropical around 1500 UTC September 16 while centered about 75 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The post-tropical low became absorbed by an approaching frontal zone late that day.
Quoting TampaSpin:


You better hope Walmart Management does not see this.....GOOD THING I DON'T MANAGE FOR THEM.....YOU WOULD BE POOOOFFF!


That's another thing that sucks. They can fire you if you speak out against their idiocy.
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's another thing that sucks. They can fire you if you speak against their idiocy.


Although now that I think about it, can they actually legally terminate you if they aren't working at the same store?
Rare November cold snap hits southern U.S.

The snow, up to 4 inches in some spots, could cause travel trouble Tuesday morning in parts of Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas. The National Weather Service posted winter storm advisories. Memphis could pick up 1-3 inches of snow.

How rare is November snow in the South? According to Weather Channel meteorologist Jon Erdman, the last time measurable snow fell in Birmingham, Ala., was in 1950, and in Nashville, it most recently fell in 1966.

In Memphis, Erdman reported that there have been only three days with snow in November since 1875.

The snow should taper off early today in the South, Ressler said, but cool temperatures will remain.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/extremes/sto ry/2011-11-28/november-cold-weather-hits-southern- usa/51447506/1
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 29 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over East Central Arabian Sea.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB04-2011 over east central Arabian Sea moved further west-northwestwards and lays centered near 16.0N 66.5E, or 750 km southwest of Mumbai (India), 800 km west of Goa, 950 km southeast of Masirah(Oman), and 1050 km south of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 60 hrs. The system is likely to weaken gradually after 24 hrs.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The convection shows slight disorganization during past 6 hours. However, the center of the system in visible imagery is very clear. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -80C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 15.0N to 22.0N and 60.0E to 70.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The central pressure of the system is 998 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 16.2N 66.0E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 16.4N 65.5E - 30-35 knots (Deep Depression)
36 HRS: 17.3N 63.5E - 25-30 knots (Depression)
60 HRS: 18.3N 61.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Here's my report on Maria. Trying to churn them out quickly to meet the December 1 deadline, although at this point I still think that's impossible.

Hurricane Maria

September 6 - September 16

Maria was a tropical cyclone which briefly became a hurricane before making landfall in Newfoundland. Maria was the second in a series of hurricanes to strike Atlantic Canada in 2011, the other being Hurricane Ophelia.

Maria developed from a tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa on September 1. As the wave moved westward across the tropical Atlantic, it generated convection, but moderate easterly shear prevented significant development. The wave slowly organized, and as the shear relaxed, a large burst of convection formed along the wave axis early on September 6. A large convective band formed to the west of the center, and the system is estimated to have become a tropical depression near 1800 UTC that day while located about 1700 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The cyclone became a tropical storm around 1200 UTC September 7. Maria initially strengthened, but this was halted as the cyclone encountered southwesterly shear the next day, associated with a persistent mid-oceanic trough. During this time, satellite, reconnaissance, and surface data showed that the low-level center associated with the tropical cyclone was becoming diffuse and poorly-defined. In fact, objective analyses of the surface wind field suggests that Maria lacked a well-defined surface circulation until around 1800 UTC September 9, when a broad surface circulation redeveloped. Thus, Maria is estimated to have degenerated into a strong tropical wave with tropical storm force winds in squalls from around 0600 UTC September 8 until 1800 UTC September 9.

By 0000 UTC September 11, Maria became better organized, although strengthening remained slow for the next several days since the system was still battling shear. Maria entered a region of lower shear as it neared the latitude of Bermuda. As the cyclone passed west of that island on September 15, it is assumed to have become a hurricane just after 1800 UTC. At this time, Maria was centered roughly 125 miles west of Bermuda. Around 0000 UTC September 16, Maria reached its peak intensity of 70 kt while located about 600 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia. As Maria accelerated toward southeastern Newfoundland, it became extratropical around 1500 UTC September 16 while centered about 75 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The post-tropical low became absorbed by an approaching frontal zone late that day.
I remember on Maria's first advisory the NHC said ...Yet Another Tropical Storm In The Atlantic...
All-post season upgrades have been completed...At least, as far as adding tropical systems to the list. We will have to wait to see which ones get an intensity upping or an intensity downing.

All tropical cyclones (my intensity guesses in parentheses):

01L.Arlene (75 mph)**
02L.Bret (70 mph)
03L.Cindy (70 mph - TCR)*
04L.Don (50 mph - TCR)*
05L.Emily (50 mph)
06L.Franklin (45 mph - TCR)*
07L.Gert (65 mph - TCR)*
Harvey (70 mph)
Irene (120 mph)
10L.NONAME (40 mph - Upgrade to tropical storm)**
11L.Jose (45 mph)
12L.Katia (140 mph)
13L.Unnamed (40 mph)
14L.Lee (50 mph)
15L.Maria (80 mph)
16L.Nate (75 mph - TCR)*
17L.Ophelia (145 mph)
18L.Philippe (100 mph)**
19L.Rina (115 mph)**
20L.Sean (75 mph)**

*=Tropical Cyclone Reports already released.
**=Category changes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All-post season upgrades have been completed...At least, as far as adding tropical systems to the list. We will have to wait to see which ones get an intensity upping or an intensity downing.

All tropical cyclones (my intensity guesses in parentheses):

01L.Arlene (75 mph)**
02L.Bret (70 mph)
03L.Cindy (70 mph - TCR)*
04L.Don (50 mph - TCR)*
05L.Emily (50 mph)
06L.Franklin (45 mph - TCR)*
07L.Gert (65 mph - TCR)*
Harvey (70 mph)
Irene (120 mph)
10L.NONAME (40 mph - Upgrade to tropical storm)**
11L.Jose (45 mph)
12L.Katia (140 mph)
13L.Unnamed (40 mph)
14L.Lee (50 mph)
15L.Maria (80 mph)
16L.Nate (75 mph - TCR)*
Ophelia (145 mph)
Philippe (100 mph)**
Rina (115 mph)**
Sean (75 mph)**

*=Tropical Cyclone Reports already released.
**=Category changes.


I agree with everything, but I still think there will be another STS or a weak TS in the next week or 2.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I agree with everything, but I still think there will be another STS or a weak TS in the next week or 2.

The models aren't as enthusiastic as they were over a Subtropical/Tropical system. It looks to have the same outcome as our previous 99L (Frontal/extratropical cyclone).
Tropical Cyclone 05A 123000UTC

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.9 /1004.8mb/ 29.0kt
Quoting SPLbeater:
dang its raining hard....
Gettin some snow here in on the plateau here this morning. It is a bit early for this.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The models aren't as enthusiastic as they were over a Subtropical/Tropical system. It looks to have the same outcome as our previous 99L (Frontal/extratropical cyclone).


Even if this one doesn't develop the GFS was hinting at a SW Caribbean low forming next week, but it has been inconsistent.
Looking back on the 2011 hurricane season, a few things stand out:

--With the addition of early September's unnamed tropical storm, August and September produced a total of 13, which is more than the 12 that formed both last year and in 2004 (the two-month average since 1995 has been 8.4, with a low of one [1997]).

--Also with that unnamed storm, a total of ten tropical storms formed in the 26 days between August 19 and September 7, or about one every 63 hours. (The best 10-storm run last year was the 33 days between August 22 and September 23.)

(Yes, some of the storms in recent years wouldn't have been caught in the pre-satellite era, etc. I just thought I'd mention it for other stat junkies like me.)
Wet and windy again here. Proper rain as well. I hate drizzle, that can't-be-bothered precipitation. If you're going to rain, do it properly.

It's still relatively mild, though will get colder as it heads into December (I know, really?)

The extended forecast seems to suggest an average December. I'll take that after the last two.
There were only 18 storms this season
Quoting Bergeron:
There were only 18 storms this season

18 named storms. But the NHC has determined in the post-season analysis that a TC that formed in early September was actually a short-lived tropical storm, bringing the total to 19.
Quoting Cotillion:
Wet and windy again here. Proper rain as well. I hate drizzle, that can't-be-bothered precipitation. If you're going to rain, do it properly.

It's still relatively mild, though will get colder as it heads into December (I know, really?)

The extended forecast seems to suggest an average December. I'll take that after the last two.
You get a lot of drizzle over there..A few flakes here as I type. There is a chance of severe weather here late in the week or early next. Hope you are well....Stay dry.:)
Quoting hydrus:
Gettin some snow here in on the plateau here this morning. It is a bit early for this.

light flurries here in Dickson County, looks like the back side of the cold front will give us a bit more snow this evening.
Quoting JNCali:

light flurries here in Dickson County, looks like the back side of the cold front will give us a bit more snow this evening.
I believe your right. Today: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Quoting hydrus:
I believe your right. Today: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
The kids wanted to get the snow gear and sleds out! I had to remind them that we where all sleeping with the windows open not so many days ago!
29 NOV 2011 05A 153000 UTC

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.5 /1005.8mb/ 25.0kt

Raw T# 1.5
Adj T# 1.5
Final T# 1.5

Scene Type: SHEAR

Center Temp: +12.2C COuld Region Temp: 4.6C

this system has got to be close to dead...
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Beatdown in the Bayou



i just watched those game highlights....das my saints!



..as fer the WV Loop.


India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
17:30 PM IST November 29 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression Over East Central Arabian Sea Weakens Into A Depression.

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over east central Arabian Sea remained practically stationary during past six hours and weakened into a depression. Depression ARB04-2011 lays centered near 16.0N 66.5E, or 750 km southwest of Mumbai (India), 800 km west of Goa, 950 km southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 1050 km south of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards and dissipate over the sea during next 36 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. The convection shows further disorganization during the past 6 hours. However, the center of the system in visible imagery is very clear. The lowest cloud top temperature is -60C. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over area between 17.0N to 24.0N and 60E to 69.0E. The convection is sheared to the northwest of low level convergence by about 150 nautical miles.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center.

The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N in association with an anticyclonic circulation over west central India. As a result, the system lies in the southwestern periphery of this anticyclonic circulation in middle and upper troposphere. Sea surface temperature is 29C around the system and gradually decreases to north and west. The ocean heat content is less than 40 kj/cm2 over west central and north Arabian Sea. The relative vorticity and low level convergence at 850 hpa level and upper level divergence has decreased during the past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear of horizontal winds over the region has increased as the system moved west northwestward and came under the influence of approaching westerly trough which runs along 50.0E to the north of 15.0N in middle and upper troposphere. The vertical wind shear is high, as the system will move closer to west central Arabian Sea. The system will also experience colder sea surface temperatures.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

6 HRS: 16.2N 66.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
12 HRS: 16.4N 65.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
36 HRS: 17.3N 63.5E - Low Pressure Area
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET November 29 2011
=================================

Surface observatoons (ship JNSR) along with ASCAT data of yesterday evening (1609Z) and this morning (0453Z) suggest that a weak low has formed in this area (position based on meteosat7 data at 0930 utc: 7.3S 76.5E). Estimated MSLP is 1005hPa and winds are in the 15-20 kt range reaching locally 25 kt. Initial motion seems to be about 10 kt towards the south southwest.

At present time, environmental conditions appear marginal with rather strong shear and poor monsoon inflow. SST are in the 29°C range. Within the next few days, if the current southwestwards fast moving motion continues, shear should gradually decrease (mainly south of 10S). Low level inflow should stay marginal a part of Wednesday (weaker subtropical ridge due to a transient mid-lat trough), but should improve significantly after that as the ridge rebuilds from the southwest associated to a forecast rather strong monsoon flow between 60E and 80E.

Development of a tropical depression becomes poor to fair Wednesday and fair Thursday.
225. eddye
everyone tropics chat
226. eddye
everyone go to tropics chat
local forecasts are always so biased in trying to warm up weather around here in central Florida. I guarantee you it will not be mid to upper 70's Friday and 78 to 80 this weekend for highs. A reinforcing front will be arriving Thursday, expect highs upper 60's to low 70's into early weekend then mid 70's for Sunday, and maybe upper 70's by Monday.

Tomorrow will not be near 70 either, mid 60's Central and low 60's north will be the general deal, upper 60's or maybe 70 for Thursday/Friday.
Quoting Patrap:
ESL by LSU





LSWho?!?!?!?!?!
Quoting hydrus:
I believe your right. Today: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.


And we're sitting at 66 degrees here in Boston.Crazy pattern we're in.
Quoting presslord:


LSWho?!?!?!?!?!


scuse me,, that would be # 1 LSU,


,my Bad
Woof, woof!!!!!
It's over: 2011 hurricane season ends safely tomorrow
Published: Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 11:50 AM


The 2011 hurricane season ends tomorrow after six months of relative peace for the New Orleans and the central Gulf Coast. Not so much for the Atlantic Seaboard, however.

Irene, the one hurricane to strike the United States, did $10 billion in damage and killed 55 people in late August, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Irene scraped northward past Cape Hatteras and made landfall as a Category 1 storm near New York City. Although its winds dissipated, its rains destroyed billions of dollars worth of property in Vermont.
All told, the season was unusually active, with 19 tropical storms.

Seven became hurricanes. Three of those were Category 3 or higher, although none made landfall in the U.S.
A time-lapse, satellite view of the season is available here. The first storm, Arlene, appears over western Cuba at the 43-second mark.

The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season in 4.5 minutes
Quoting NEwxguy:


And we're sitting at 66 degrees here in Boston.Crazy pattern we're in.
Hence my strong interest in meteorology. Seems to me the worlds climate in general is changing far more rapidly then expected..Plenty of rain for you folks in New England. A little more for shortly..
No one has posted this yet?

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
Quoting yqt1001:
No one has posted this yet?

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.


tanks for that, SPLbeater had no clue lol.
New research shows the Southern Ocean is storing more heat than any other ocean in the world.

The study, carried out by Tasmania's Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem centre, has found that carbon dioxide levels in the Southern Ocean will be corrosive to some shellfish by 2030 if current trends continue.

Scientists say deep moving currents around Antarctica are the reason why the Southern Ocean is warming faster than other oceans.

Link

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-29/southern-oc ean-waters-warming/3700532
watching the little low in the sw carib.
A bit different on the weather side of things:

"The majority of the 1,800 Met Office staff at its headquarters in Exeter, around the country and at the BBC Weather Centre are expected to back the one-day action and stay away from work, Prospect said. For the public, one of the most obvious signs of the dispute is that well-known names like Alex Deakin and Laura Tobin will be missing from the BBC forecasts on their TV screens.

However, Prospect has agreed emergency cover to ensure key weather information is available for aviation, shipping, defence and other essential services such as emergency flood warnings. Staff set to take strike action at the Met Office, which is part of the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, include forecasters, scientists, IT experts and commercial sales staff. Their absence will hit the collection and interpretation of meteorological data from weather stations and satellites around the world and the UK." Link

Mets on strike on the same day the hurricane season goes on strike until next June.
Hello? Blog? 2 comments in 1 hour? WAKE UP!!!



Look at that low moving almost due south towards Panama.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Hello? Blog? 2 comments in 1 hour? WAKE UP!!!


I don't wanna!
Still snowing here in North Georgia. Heading back to the Keys Tomorrow.

Photo taken by my honey Michelle about 2 hours ago.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't wanna!
I'm watching mah AVGN....
TC 05A 210000 UTC

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1003.5mb/ 31.0kt

Raw T# 2.1
Adj T# 2.1
Final T# 2.1

Scene Type: SHEAR

Center Temp: +15.8C Cloud Region Temp: -23.4C
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Still snowing here in North Georgia. Heading back to the Keys Tomorrow.

Photo taken by my honey Michelle about 2 hours ago.

Very cool pic. Thanks for sharing it.
Sooo my comment yesterday about the "not so series cold" got deleted but yet was qoted several times and....never mind I wonder about admin sometimes.Are they machines or people?.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sooo my comment yesterday about the "not so series cold" got deleted but yet was qoted several times and....never mind I wonder about admin sometimes.Are they machines or people?.

People, but I worry about them too.
oh my gosh look at whats in the eastern atlantic!!

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! (just kidding, need some fun xD)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

People, but I worry about them too.
Yeah.They annoy the crap out of me to.
Quoting SPLbeater:
oh my gosh look at whats in the eastern atlantic!!

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! (just kidding, need some fun xD)
Is that beautiful Igor?.
Whoa...

I'm even on a fast laptop and that image slowed it down..way down. Link to the image instead of directly posting, maybe?

Thanks.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sooo my comment yesterday about the "not so series cold" got deleted but yet was qoted several times and....never mind I wonder about admin sometimes.Are they machines or people?.
yeah I saw that. People had quoted you and I wanted to quote you as well but I couldn't find the comment so I had to copy and paste other people's posts.

I'm sure you already saw my post, but basically a cold PDO and La Nina both favor ridging south of the Aleutian islands, a trough in the NW region of north America and slight ridging over the east US. This makes for warmer winters on the east coast and less precipitation in the se us but above average precipitation in the ne us. Current 500mb anomalies reflect this pattern and should it keep up I'd expect less snow this year due to the slight ridging. Although the AO and NAO may change things up, they've both been running quite positive lately which usually means the cold polar air is confined more to the north as a stronger pressure gradient is formed under a positive AO, keeping the jetstream less amplified and allowing for fewer and less severe cold outbreaks.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah.They annoy the crap out of me to.Is that beautiful Igor?.
Where did eveybody go?.
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah I saw that. People had quoted you and I wanted to quote you as well but I couldn't find the comment so I had to copy and paste other people's posts.

I'm sure you already saw my post, but basically a cold PDO and La Nina both favor ridging south of the Aleutian islands, a trough in the NW region of north America and slight ridging over the east US. This makes for warmer winters on the east coast and less precipitation in the se us but above average precipitation in the ne us. Current 500mb anomalies reflect this pattern and should it keep up I'd expect less snow this year due to the slight ridging. Although the AO and NAO may change things up, they've both been running quite positive lately which usually means the cold polar air is confined more to the north as a stronger pressure gradient is formed under a positive AO, keeping the jetstream less amplified and allowing for fewer and less severe cold outbreaks.
Yes thank you for the information.Well after getting over a hot summer where we broke several records for heat and well I was ready for a nice crisp fall.All this warm weather has got to go!!!!
So what happens if a new storm were to develop in the Atlantic? Would the new storm be 21L or 20L?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sooo my comment yesterday about the "not so series cold" got deleted but yet was qoted several times and....never mind I wonder about admin sometimes.Are they machines or people?.


I have a feeling this Christmas will be reminiscent of 1989!
Quoting yqt1001:
So what happens if a new storm were to develop in the Atlantic? Would the new storm be 21L or 20L?

21L.
It looks like NHC may have missed yet another storm. This one in the month of July. If you follow this link:

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/text/goes13results.html #2011_alley.jpg

Go and click on July and in the video wait until July 12th (110712). You will see a tropical storm like figure move across the furthest south part of the gulf of mexico.

It would really appreciate it if somoene would confirm this to a tropical storm or not. If so we can be uncovering storm #20.
Whoa...fix:

Link
It's snowing! :D
NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory - The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season in 4.5 minutes


A time-lapse, satellite view of the season is available here. The first storm, Arlene, appears over western Cuba at the 43-second mark.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


unfortunately I never learned how to make a link before.

Go to this link
Link
Quoting Speeky:


unfortunately I never learned how to make a link before.

Go to this link
Link

I know this is the system you are talking about...I think it should have been classified as well. However, the National Hurricane Center is done adding tropical systems to the list for the year, so it will go with 93L (the Florida gale which won't be upgraded) as being close.

On July 12 to July 14th, in the south west quadrant of the gulf of mexico, there is a possible tropical storm that the NHC may have missed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I know this is the system you are talking about...I think it should have been classified as well. However, the National Hurricane Center is done adding tropical systems to the list for the year, so it will go with 93L (the Florida gale which won't be upgraded) as being close.



I really think that the NHC should reconsider this storm and the Florida gale. They may be much better formed than Tropical Storm Jose and others for that matter. Oh well. We can't beat the NHC can we?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa...fix:

Link


The images on this website are so cool.
Quoting Speeky:
On July 12 to July 14th, in the south west quadrant of the gulf of mexico, there is a possible tropical storm that the NHC may have missed.

Maybe it was a TD and not a ts I haven`t see upgrade a system to a td just a ts in post analysis
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I know this is the system you are talking about...I think it should have been classified as well. However, the National Hurricane Center is done adding tropical systems to the list for the year, so it will go with 93L (the Florida gale which won't be upgraded) as being close.



Didnt even last half a day, no way they were going to classify that system, that good of a cloud structure lasted for maybe 3 hours.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I know this is the system you are talking about...I think it should have been classified as well. However, the National Hurricane Center is done adding tropical systems to the list for the year, so it will go with 93L (the Florida gale which won't be upgraded) as being close.



Agreed. NHC specifications are too vague. It seems storms need to be at "TD strength and organization" over water for at least 6 hours. But how strong a given blob-swirl is is debatable unless it's investigated.
Quoting allancalderini:

Maybe it was a TD and not a ts I haven`t see upgrade a system to a td just a ts in post analysis


I would agree with that, however, T.S. Jose by at least satelite views seems to be not even a T.D. This storm and the florida gale (in early June) probably are a lot more well formed than Jose and many of the other tropical storms this year.
This is one of my favorite storms:



Ivan gets second on my list.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
This is one of my favorite storms:



Ivan gets second on my list.

What about Wilma or Katrina?
Quoting Speeky:


I would agree with that, however, T.S. Jose by at least satelite views seems to be not even a T.D. This storm and the florida gale (in early June) probably are a lot more well formed than Jose and many of the other tropical storms this year.


They can't name every system based on a couple of satellite frames or there would be 30 storms a year.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Didnt even last half a day, no way they were going to classify that system, that good of a cloud structure lasted for maybe 3 hours.


That swirl was not for 3 hours. It was maybe for 3 days.

Also, Marco (2008), Humberto (2007) and Lorenzo(2007) were only less than 48 hour tropical storms and hurricanes.

Marco in specific was less than 36 hours and formed in the near to almost exact same spot as this storm. Yet marco was really well formed for something about the size of 11 square miles.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What about Wilma or Katrina?
Wilma was not as good looking storm as Rita is to me. Sure she has perfect structure and was stronger but Rita looked better to me. Katrina just had a big gaping whole in the center.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
This is one of my favorite storms:



Ivan gets second on my list.


What about Hurricane Dean of 2007?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
This is one of my favorite storms:



Ivan gets second on my list.


My favorite structure goes to Hurricane Felix.
Quoting Speeky:


That swirl was not for 3 hours. It was maybe for 3 days.

Also, Marco (2008), Humberto (2007) and Lorenzo(2007) were only less than 48 hour tropical storms and hurricanes.

Marco in specific was less than 36 hours and formed in the near to almost exact same spot as this storm. Yet marco was really well formed for something about the size of 11 square miles.


no it was not 3 days, you can track it across the Caribbean as a wave, then it moves into the BOC and develops a circulations, and anything that could resemble a tropical cyclone did not last very long(about half a day), and the structure in the picture Tropix has does not last for more than 3 or 4 hours.
Quoting Speeky:


What about Hurricane Dean of 2007?


Dean was pretty awesome too.
Despite the fact that it was a Category 4, my favorite storm structure would have to go to Hurricane Igor from last year. However, if we are choosing Category 5 storm structure, my favorite would have to be Hurricane Mitch.

Isabels gotta be my favorite, its eye is a masterpiece.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wilma was not as good looking storm as Rita is to me. Sure she has perfect structure and was stronger but Rita looked better to me. Katrina just had a big gaping whole in the center.

You sure?

I like Anita's structure.
Quoting Articuno:
I like Anita's structure.


You are into the old ones? ;)
My favourite storm structure from this year was Nanmandol (which was also a 155mph cyclone like Igor).



As far as all time, I must go with Monica.

I'm still amazed how Hurricane Katrina's eye literally came out of nowhere.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You are into the old ones? ;)


lmao
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


no it was not 3 days, you can track it across the Caribbean as a wave, then it moves into the BOC and develops a circulations, and anything that could resemble a tropical cyclone did not last very long(about half a day), and the structure in the picture Tropix has does not last for more than 3 or 4 hours.


Where do you think this storm swirls. Where in specific. Our places may differ.
Quoting KoritheMan:


lmao


A laugh outta Kori? I'll take it :p
289. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm still amazed how Hurricane Katrina's eye literally came out of nowhere.

That still has to be one of the freakyest things I have ever seen. I had forgotten how impressive she looked on satellite, that just goes to show the deadly power in a "beautiful storm look".
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
This is one of my favorite storms:



Ivan gets second on my list.


Andrew is pretty awesome too.
Quoting Speeky:


Where do you think this storm swirls. Where in specific. Our places may differ.


From that link he posted, IMO it starts to swirl when tn enters the BOC, but doesn't tighten up until about 12 hours off the coast of mexico, and doesn't look like a TC until about 3 hours of the coast of Mexico, I just think it ran out of time to be classified, by the time of the next advisory it was already on land and dissipating. If I remember correctly it had like a 50% chance?


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

1. UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.



but by the next advisory it was already too late.

Now there's a scary picture. ;-)



Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Now there's a scary picture. ;-)





Effects of global warming... lol
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


From that link he posted, IMO it starts to swirl when tn enters the BOC, but doesn't tighten up until about 12 hours off the coast of mexico, and doesn't look like a TC until about 3 hours of the coast of Mexico, I just think it ran out of time to be classified, by the time of the next advisory it was already on land and dissipating. If I remember correctly it had like a 50% chance?


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

1. UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.



but by the next advisory it was already too late.



I deffinetly agree that this storm still didn't have enough to be classified. However I do think that the second a storm shows any sort of wind above 30 mph, with tropical charecteristics should be classified. If they are missed they can be at least included in a post analysis of a season.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Effects of global warming... lol



Lol! Now THAT is a scary thought! I know we need the rain here but if that never happens again in any of our lifetimes it'll be too soon. :)
Well it was an extremely odd hurricane season, glad it wasn't too bad.

Guess forecasts for next year will start soon...
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You are into the old ones? ;)

I just like anita because it looked amazing, otherwise I like the modern ones.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah.They annoy the crap out of me to. Is that beautiful Igor?.


that is Hurricane Celia in her Category 5 stage in the eastern pacific last year. figured i might make a joke, if small :D
what's so special about the 1989 winter? Was it record cold, abnormally warm, what was it?
Area to watch next is around 77E, 10S:
Here's one for y'all. I was looking up Rita images and this came up. It's definitely not Rita. Lol. And all it says is You can from this old radar image...
Any ideas? It apparently was from a khou file? So I'm assuming that's an old Houston radar shot?




Quoting hurricaneben:
what's so special about the 1989 winter? Was it record cold, abnormally warm, what was it?


The overall pattern right now is very similar to the late fall/early winter of 1989-90. In that year, the first half of November was unusually warm across much of the nation. Then, on November 16, a long line of severe thunderstorms swept through the central and eastern states, producing an outbreak of tornadoes in Alabama. Farther to the north in Newburgh, NY, tornado-strength winds blew down a freestanding cafeteria wall, killing eight students and injuring 18 others. Though the event was officially recorded as a F1 tornado, it was later determined that it was actually an intense downburst.

All of these things came at the end of long stretch of well-above normal temperatures, and immediately following that event, came six-weeks of intense cold, with temperatures nationwide averaging about 6 to 12 degrees below normal.

btw...last warning issued on TC 05A
title to 05A:

Tropical Cyclone 05A (Five) Warning #17 Final Warning
Issued at 30/0300Z



:(
Quoting Speeky:


The overall pattern right now is very similar to the late fall/early winter of 1989-90. In that year, the first half of November was unusually warm across much of the nation. Then, on November 16, a long line of severe thunderstorms swept through the central and eastern states, producing an outbreak of tornadoes in Alabama. Farther to the north in Newburgh, NY, tornado-strength winds blew down a freestanding cafeteria wall, killing eight students and injuring 18 others. Though the event was officially recorded as a F1 tornado, it was later determined that it was actually an intense downburst.

All of these things came at the end of long stretch of well-above normal temperatures, and immediately following that event, came six-weeks of intense cold, with temperatures nationwide averaging about 6 to 12 degrees below normal.



I see...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Here's one for y'all. I was looking up Rita images and this came up. It's definitely not Rita. Lol. And all it says is You can from this old radar image...
Any ideas? It apparently was from a khou file? So I'm assuming that's an old Houston radar shot?





That is Hurricane Carla from 1961.

Quoting 12george1:

That is Hurricane Carla from 1961.

Ah ok. I thought it may have been. One of the very few storms on radar image actually older than I, but just.  Lol.  Wonder if the arrow in the image was pointing out a tornado or something? It was probably an interesting article at one time. Thanks :)
Quoting Speeky:


That swirl was not for 3 hours. It was maybe for 3 days.
it was worthy of classification for only several hours though, that's his point. You don't name storms from the point when it first developed a swirl...there's more to the definition.
Quoting TomTaylor:
it was worthy of classification for only several hours though, that's his point. You don't name storms from the point when it first developed a swirl...there's more to the definition.


what exactly is there more to that deffinition?
I feel like we kind of neglected the Florida gale in early June from the discussion. What exactly caused it not to be named?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Please enlighten us.
Why's that? If you worked for them, would you suddenly stop supporting the First Amendment?


Actually First Amendment has no bearing on you as an employee if they want to release you for not supporting the Company! Again another Liberal view and thinking.
Wild storms strike Canberra and NSW as more wild weather to come

WILD storms have battered Canberra and parts of NSW, dumping more than 100mm of rain near one popular small town - and with the promise of more to come.

Canberrans were last night treated to one of the most spectacular lightning shows in decades, which played out across the city's skies from around 5pm until the early hours of the morning.

Around 30-45mm of rain fell across Canberra suburbs, but Mount View, near Braidwood in southern NSW, was hammered with 117mm of rain.

Severe thunderstorms are forecast for other parts of NSW. Areas that may be affected include Walgett, Dubbo, Parkes, Nyngan, Young, West Wyalong, Bourke, Lightning Ridge and Brewarrina.

It was a story of contrasts however - 90 minutes up the road at Goulburn, just 3mm of rain fell, while at Cooma, two hours south of Braidwood, only 10mm of rain was recorded.

Senior meteorologist at the ACT Bureau of Meteorology, Sean Carson, said storms hit the national capital and southern NSW in waves.

He said a trough over central NSW built up in yesterday's heat and humidity, fuelling the storms.

More wild weather is forecast to hit Canberra in the next "six to nine hours'', he said, before conditions stabilise.

"There are no more thunderstorms forecast for the near future,'' Mr Carson said.

Canberra's southern suburbs have been awash with 190mm of rain in November, while the airport has recorded 130mm. The monthly rainfall average for Canberra is 60mm.

Mr Carson attributed the wet weather to another La Nina event, and recalled last summer's heavy rainfall, which resulted in the flooding of Queanbeyan.

Canberra’s first week of summer is expected to be mild, with below average temperatures forecast.
Quoting TampaSpin:


So winter of 1989. We meet again.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Actually First Amendment has no bearing on you as an employee if they want to release you for not supporting the Company! Again another Liberal view and thinking.

On company time and/or company property, sure. But if an employee wishes to badmouth his employer after hours and in an unofficial capacity, he should be able to do so without fear of recrimination. I know there are those who are perfectly comfortable with company spies scouring social media and blog forums looking for those who'd dare to speak about them in a less than positive fashion, but I'm not one of them. (It reminds me of Kansas Governor Sam Brownback who just this week embarrassed himself by insisting a high school student apologize for sending a less-than-flattering tweet about him.)

Whenever I hear people talking about "taking American back", I wonder just how far they want to take it back; it appears some want to take it back to a time before we had a Constitution...
Quoting Speeky:


So winter of 1989. We meet again.


Do you know what that winter was like for Texas?
Quoting Neapolitan:

On company time and/or company property, sure. But if an employee wishes to badmouth his employer after hours and in an unofficial capacity, he should be able to do so without fear of recrimination. I know there are those who are perfectly comfortable with company spies scouring social media and blog forums looking for those who'd dare to speak about them in a less than positive fashion, but I'm not one of them.


Daniel Goleman's Emotional Intelligence books can really help someone who publically badmouths an employer or a spouse, for that matter.
Quoting Neapolitan:

On company time and/or company property, sure. But if an employee wishes to badmouth his employer after hours and in an unofficial capacity, he should be able to do so without fear of recrimination. I know there are those who are perfectly comfortable with company spies scouring social media and blog forums looking for those who'd dare to speak about them in a less than positive fashion, but I'm not one of them. (It reminds me of Kansas Governor Sam Brownback who just this week embarrassed himself by insisting a high school student apologize for sending a less-than-flattering tweet about him.)


Sorry but you are completely WRONG.....you can be released for making such slandering statements.....in MOST STATES! Heck in Florida you don't even have to tell anyone why you are released.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Sorry but you are completely WRONG.....you can be released for making such slandering statements.....in MOST STATES! Heck in Florida you don't even have to tell anyone why you are released.

Unsurprisingly, you missed the point. Again. I'm not talking about the legality of firing someone for badmouthing an employer on their own time; I'm talking about the un-American-ness of it. If some are comfortable with employers (or politicians, or police, or whomever) listening in on their every conversation to be sure nothing bad gets said about them, perhaps they'd find North Korea more to their liking.
Quoting Neapolitan:

On company time and/or company property, sure. But if an employee wishes to badmouth his employer after hours and in an unofficial capacity, he should be able to do so without fear of recrimination. I know there are those who are perfectly comfortable with company spies scouring social media and blog forums looking for those who'd dare to speak about them in a less than positive fashion, but I'm not one of them. (It reminds me of Kansas Governor Sam Brownback who just this week embarrassed himself by insisting a high school student apologize for sending a less-than-flattering tweet about him.)

Whenever I hear people talking about "taking American back", I wonder just how far they want to take it back; it appears some want to take it back to a time before we had a Constitution...




Too....Freaking funny!!! Ya, WE will take back this Country to more traditional views and upholding the Constitution the way it was years ago but not the views you would like it today.
Glad I'm not off the coast of Sydney right now. Nice looking storm though.



Also glad I'm not in Newcastle or north.



The overall picture.

Quoting Neapolitan:

Unsurprisingly, you missed the point. Again. I'm not talking about the legality of firing someone for badmouthing an employer on their own time; I'm talking about the un-American-ness of it.


The Un-American-ness of it....are you kidding me.......ROFLMAO
Quoting Neapolitan:

Unsurprisingly, you missed the point. Again. I'm not talking about the legality of firing someone for badmouthing an employer on their own time; I'm talking about the un-American-ness of it. If some are comfortable with employers (or politicians, or police, or whomever) listening in on their every conversation to be sure nothing bad gets said about them, perhaps they'd find North Korea more to their liking.
Neapolitan, you might as well bang your head on a brick wall. You'd make more progress making your head bloody than trying to make the point small enough to understand.
Quoting HouGalv08:
Neapolitan, you might as well bang your head on a brick wall. You'd make more progress making your head bloody than trying to make the point small enough to understand.


Oh he was very clear as you are.....
Here's my report on Ophelia:

Hurricane Ophelia

September 20 - October 3

Ophelia was a major hurricane that attained Category 4 strength while passing east of Bermuda. It eventually impacted southeastern Newfoundland as a tropical storm.

Late on September 14, a tropical wave, accompanied by a surface low, passed Dakar, Senegal and moved off the west coast of Africa. The wave first showed signs of organization on September 18, but the broad cyclonic gyre in which the low was embedded appears to have inhibited significant development. Nonetheless, the wave slowly consolidated, becoming a tropical depression around 1800 UTC September 20 while centered about 1600 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The depression intensified to a tropical storm just six hours later. Ophelia initially strengthened despite moderate southwesterly shear, reaching an initial peak of 55 kt near 0600 UTC September 22. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear caused the tropical cyclone to gradually weaken, with the associated convection confined downstream of the low-level center. Based on surface observations from the Leeward Islands, along with satellite and scatterometer data, Ophelia is labeled a remnant low at 1800 UTC September 25 while located about 150 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Ophelia redeveloped a closed circulation early on September 27, but winds were less than 25 kt near the center at that time. Ophelia regenerated into a tropical depression near 1800 UTC that day. At that time, the cyclone was centered roughly 150 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

The cyclone slowly strengthened as the shear gradually lessened, and Ophelia became a hurricane around 1800 UTC September 29 while located about 800 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. The hurricane continued to intensify as it moved northwestward, and based on satellite imagery, Ophelia became a major hurricane at 1200 UTC September 30 while located about 650 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Ophelia continued to intensify while moving quickly northward, and the hurricane reached its peak intensity of 120 kt near 0000 UTC October 2. At this time, the well-defined eye of the hurricane was located about 150 miles east of Bermuda.

Ophelia gradually turned north-northeast ahead of a large trough and associated cold front amplifying to the west. All the while, the hurricane weakened, with the eye becoming indistinct near 1200 UTC October 2. It was during this time that Ophelia was moving toward sub-26C SSTs, with a rapid cooling of these waters just beyond that isotherm. The combination of southerly to southwesterly shear along with these cold waters rapidly weakened the hurricane as it raced toward southeastern Newfoundland. Ophelia, then a tropical storm, crossed the western end of the Avalon Peninsula around 0900 UTC October 3. Ophelia became extratropical shortly thereafter as it entered a highly baroclinic environment.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm still amazed how Hurricane Katrina's eye literally came out of nowhere.

Quoting j2008:
That still has to be one of the freakyest things I have ever seen. I had forgotten how impressive she looked on satellite, that just goes to show the deadly power in a "beautiful storm look".



I was going through old youtube videos last night, and all i could think was "they just didn't know. less than 36 hours out, and they just didn't know."

36 hours before landfall:
Link

24 hours before landfall:
Link
Quoting Speeky:


what exactly is there more to that deffinition?
A closed circulation, sustained convection present over the swirl, wind speeds, no fronts, and a partial warm core.
Can you say negative things about your employer? Probably will be decided by the Supreme court.

No free speech at Mr Jefferson's library
The case of Morris Davis, fired from the Library of Congress for criticizing in the Wall Street Journal what he saw as US double standards, spotlights a growing trend of Washington punishing its employees who question its actions. Meanwhile it denigrates Beijing, Tehran and Damascus for suppressing free speech. - Peter Van Buren (Nov 29, '11)

Link for full text
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/MK30D j01.html
Link
Wouldn't this increase hurricanes in the S Atlantic too? Maybe a contributor to the higher water heights along that stretch of S America the last decade..


This figure shows the Agulhas system and its leakage into the South Atlantic. The southward shift of the winds in a warming climate (right panel) cause a southward shift of the subtropical front (red arrows), enlarging the "gateway" for Agulhas leakage around the tip of Africa. Increased Agulhas leakage acts to enhance Atlantic overturning, which causes a feedback on climate. (Background colors are dynamic height integrated between 2000 m and the surface). (Credit: Erik van Sebille, UM/RSMAS)

..more here
Looks like the water is modeled to boil or move excitedly this week off Africa around the equator. Check the different temp layers.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
5:30 AM IST November 30 2011
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression ARB04-2011 over east central and adjoining areas of west central Arabian Sea moved west-northwestwards and lays centered near 17.0N 64.5E, 900 km southwest of Mumbai (India), 650 km southeast of Masirah (Oman), and 900 km south-southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards and dissipate over the sea during next 24 hours.
I will have enough time for a full fledged 2011 season in review, and talk about this system near the leewards if its still around, Night everyone...

I leave you with this...
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT AROUND
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN


2011:
19 Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
120 Dead
11.2 Billion in damages
Will begin on my full review of the season tomorrow, will construct it over the remainder of the week, and release my full analysis of the 2011 season, and a report on Arlene-Sean, or Tammy, depending on what occurs with the leeward hybrid low
Quoting TampaSpin:




Too....Freaking funny!!! Ya, WE will take back this Country to more traditional views and upholding the Constitution the way it was years ago but not the views you would like it today.


you talk about upholding the constitution yet act like the first amendment isn't important... and im a conservative...
Quoting TomTaylor:
A closed circulation, sustained convection present over the swirl, wind speeds, no fronts, and a partial warm core.


That seems to be reprsented in the Florida gale of june of this year. Why wasn't that classified?
Quoting Speeky:


That seems to be reprsented in the Florida gale of june of this year. Why wasn't that classified?


They thought it also had extra-tropical storm characteristics.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you talk about upholding the constitution yet act like the first amendment isn't important... and im a conservative...


So let me get this correct....if you owned a private business and you had an employee that off the job was dumping on your business and yourself......you would still keep them employed. That is real good business sense!

I would exercise my freedom of speech and tell them which door they can use.
Quoting TampaSpin:


So let me get this correct....if you owned a private business and you had an employee that off the job was dumping on your business and yourself......you would still keep them employed. That is real good business sense!


unless it strictly says you can't in the contract then yes, and if its not. Then rewrite one that does.
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like the water is modeled to boil or move excitedly this week off Africa around the equator. Check the different temp layers.


What do you think caused that too happen off the Coast of Africa?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


unless it strictly says you can't in the contract then yes, and if its not. Then rewrite one that does.


Contract....most employees do not work under any contract! I have been an HR Manager for over 30 years for one the largest companies in this nation and i rarely ever pay unemployment for dismissing an employee! It called MISCONDUCT.....that includes on and off the job. Not much different than getting a DUI off work and getting released. Its really that simple.
*LOG ENTRY NOVEMBER 30, 2011*
This is professor Vincent, date 30/11/11.

So..... this is it, it's november 30, hurricanes will not appear anymore. People start posting post-season blogs. They start discussing climate change, global warming and nonsense stuff.

TL;DR: End of the season.

*END TRANSMISSION*
Philippe's report is done. Still hoping to finish this blog by tomorrow, although that's unlikely:


Hurricane Philippe

September 24 - October 9

Philippe was a long-lived tropical cyclone that eventually became a hurricane over the western Atlantic.

Philippe developed from a vigorous tropical wave that crossed the coast of Africa on September 22. The wave was accompanied by deep convection and a well-defined low-level circulation. The low-latitude tropical wave moved westward and developed into a tropical depression near 0900 UTC September 24 while centered about 290 miles south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. The depression became a tropical storm around 1800 UTC that day while centered about 350 miles southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands. Although Philippe intensified somewhat, satellite imagery suggests that northerly shear associated with the back side of an upper-level trough inhibited significant strengthening for the first couple of days. Although Philippe escaped from this trough on September 26, northwesterly shear emanating from outflow associated with Hurricane Ophelia squashed the cyclone, causing weakening. Indeed, Philippe was barely of tropical storm strength through much of September 27 and 28. Thereafter, the cyclone slowly intensified under a somewhat lighter synoptic shearing regime, and the storm was just under hurricane strength early on October 1.

As Philippe recurved, it intensified, becoming a hurricane around 1200 UTC October 6 while located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Philippe reached its peak intensity of 80 kt near 0000 UTC October 7, at which time the cyclone is estimated to have been located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The hurricane slowly weakened thereafter as it accelerated northeast in mid-latitude southwesterly flow associated with a large amplitude trough to the west, and Philippe weakened to a tropical storm around 1800 UTC October 7. Interaction with this trough caused extratropical transition to occur around 0000 UTC October 9 while located about 1000 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Contract....most employees do not work under any contract! I have been an HR Manager for over 30 years for one the largest companies in this nation and i rarely ever pay unemployment for dismissing an employee! It called MISCONDUCT.....that includes on and off the job. Not much different than getting a DUI off work and getting released. Its really that simple.


It's not hard to write a contract... if it states they can't so something and they do it then fire them. And its nothing like a DUI ones breaking the law, ones not.
Quoting Neapolitan:
"But if an employee wishes to badmouth his employer after hours and in an unofficial capacity, he should be able to do so without fear of recrimination"

Quoting TampaSpin
"Sorry but you are completely WRONG.....you can be released for making such slandering statements.....in MOST STATES! Heck in Florida you don't even have to tell anyone why you are released."

I'm from UK so maybe ignore me.

Is that 'you don't even have to tell anyone why you are releasing an employee'? if only about why you are released then that is relevant to chance of re-employment but not relevant to any attempt to dismiss.

I take badmouth to be potentially different from slander. Speaking only truthfully can be a defence against accusation of slander AFAIK. Badmouth might be true and not slander, in which case employer may be better giving a warning than making too much of it. I certainly wouldn't want to rely on that as an employee though.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Unsurprisingly, you missed the point. Again. I'm not talking about the legality of firing someone for badmouthing an employer on their own time; I'm talking about the un-American-ness of it. If some are comfortable with employers (or politicians, or police, or whomever) listening in on their every conversation to be sure nothing bad gets said about them, perhaps they'd find North Korea more to their liking.


If I owned a company or even was the CEO and sold a product, had an employee the company, it could be damaging to the reputation, and effected sales, that person would be looking for another job, as soon as I found out! PERIOD!
My last two jobs, if I talked down about the company, I would be suspended, or terminated.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


If I owned a company or even was the CEO and sold a product, had an employee the company, it could be damaging to the reputation, and effected sales, that person would be looking for another job, as soon as I found out! PERIOD!
My last two jobs, if I talked down about the company, I would be suspended, or terminated.

And how deep would your digging go? Out of paranoia, would you hire someone to (or spend hours yourself) keeping tabs on your employees' facebook profiles and twitter accounts? Would you wiretap their telephones? Hack into their personal email accounts? Go through their garbage looking for snippets of paper that might mention your company? Clandestinely seat yourself near them in public places such as theaters and restaurants so you could eavesdrop on their conversations?

Again, I'm not talking about badmouthing one's employer on the clock, or in an official capacity of any kind. I'm talking about a guy complaining to his buddies around a barbecue--or griping on a weather blog forum--on a Saturday, then being dismissed when he arrives at work on Monday. If anyone is comfortable with that, by all means please speak up.

(FWIW, my original comment was in response to a person who replied to someone who'd complained about his job at Wal-Mart by saying, "You better hope Walmart Management does not see this.....GOOD THING I DON'T MANAGE FOR THEM.....YOU WOULD BE POOOOFFF!")
More deep lows on the way. A 943mb low to the east of Greenland and another couple of 960mb lows on track for the next week.

Seems a little early for such deep lows, but it happens.
OMG!!!! One day left in the 2011 hurricane season!!!!!!!! Oh Noes!!!!!! Paniiiiiiiic!!!!!
Until June at least :P
Quoting Neapolitan:

And how deep would your digging go? Out of paranoia, would you hire someone to (or spend hours yourself) keeping tabs on your employees' facebook profiles and twitter accounts? Would you wiretap their telephones? Hack into their personal email accounts? Go through their garbage looking for snippets of paper that might mention your company? Clandestinely seat yourself near them in public places such as theaters and restaurants so you could eavesdrop on their conversations?

Again, I'm not talking about badmouthing one's employer on the clock, or in an official capacity of any kind. I'm talking about a guy complaining to his buddies around a barbecue--or griping on a weather blog forum--on a Saturday, then being dismissed when he arrives at work on Monday. If anyone is comfortable with that, by all means please speak up.

(FWIW, my original comment was in response to a person who replied to someone who'd complained about his job at Wal-Mart by saying, "You better hope Walmart Management does not see this.....GOOD THING I DON'T MANAGE FOR THEM.....YOU WOULD BE POOOOFFF!")


Personally I don't think the digging should be disproportionate to the risk. Better to spend time at initial meeting pointing out relevant clauses in contract so all parties are clear on what is not acceptable. Of course, views on what is disproportionate will vary.

Re "as soon as I found out! PERIOD!"

No, as soon as I found out employee would get memo stating what matters were going to be investigated with a view to considering whether any disciplinary procedures were warranted and if the employee wanted any matters to be considered they should inform the relevant person preferably but not necessarily in writing. They would still have a job for at least a week and possibly longer.

Don't know about US but even if laws allowed dismissal without giving reason, I would tend to think that would be a bad idea. But maybe that's mainly due to the UK employment tribunal implications that don't apply in US.
Quoting crandles:


Personally I don't think the digging should be disproportionate to the risk. Better to spend time at initial meeting pointing out relevant clauses in contract so all parties are clear on what is not acceptable. Of course, views on what is disproportionate will vary.

Re "as soon as I found out! PERIOD!"

No, as soon as I found out employee would get memo stating what matters were going to be investigated with a view to considering whether any disciplinary procedures were warranted and if the employee wanted any matters to be considered they should inform the relevant person preferably but not necessarily in writing. They would still have a job for at least a week and possibly longer.

Don't know about US but even if laws allowed dismissal without giving reason, I would tend to think that would be a bad idea. But maybe that's mainly due to the UK employment tribunal implications that don't apply in US.


Different cultures. I'm a lot more fond of the European way of considering employment, though as someone from the UK, that's maybe not surprising.

But hey, the USA is the land of the free! or so they say... ;)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 30 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, ARB04-2011 over east central and adjoining areas of west central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea near 17.5N 63.5E, or 1000 km west-southwest of Mumbai (India), 600 km southeast of Masirah (Oman) and 950 km south-southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move northwestwards and maintain the same intensity for some time.
AL, 90, 2011113012, 231N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NEAR
GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT AROUND
15 MPH.

I think 90L has the potential to become a Subtropical cyclone over the next few days, maybe a better one than 99L did since its farther south, over warmer waters, and not connected to any fronts.
FWIW:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201111301221
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011113012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011112912, , BEST, 0, 189N, 597W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011112918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 593W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113000, , BEST, 0, 210N, 590W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113006, , BEST, 0, 221N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113012, , BEST, 0, 231N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 325, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201111301221
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011113012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011112912, , BEST, 0, 189N, 597W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011112918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 593W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113000, , BEST, 0, 210N, 590W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113006, , BEST, 0, 221N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113012, , BEST, 0, 231N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 325, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


We have 90L!!!! Yay! The season goes on!
Quoting crandles:


Personally I don't think the digging should be disproportionate to the risk. Better to spend time at initial meeting pointing out relevant clauses in contract so all parties are clear on what is not acceptable. Of course, views on what is disproportionate will vary.

Re "as soon as I found out! PERIOD!"

No, as soon as I found out employee would get memo stating what matters were going to be investigated with a view to considering whether any disciplinary procedures were warranted and if the employee wanted any matters to be considered they should inform the relevant person preferably but not necessarily in writing. They would still have a job for at least a week and possibly longer.

Don't know about US but even if laws allowed dismissal without giving reason, I would tend to think that would be a bad idea. But maybe that's mainly due to the UK employment tribunal implications that don't apply in US.

My personal bottom line is that I'd never care to work for a company with such a high level of mistrust. An employer/employee relationship is in some respects similar to any other relationship; there has to be a certain level of trust for things to work. Absent that trust, I won't waste my time, nor theirs.
Quoting TampaSpin:


So let me get this correct....if you owned a private business and you had an employee that off the job was dumping on your business and yourself......you would still keep them employed. That is real good business sense!

I would exercise my freedom of speech and tell them which door they can use.




You're on solid footing with this one Tampa. Biting the hand that feeds you is a fine reason to get dumped. People who don't see it that way, don't run a business or are being intellectually dishonest.

Also: Complaining in private about your job or boss to your wife or a couple of close friends is one thing, Doing it publically and loudly or on Facebook or other social media to the detriment of the company you work for is a completely different animal. Furthermore it shows the complainer in a very bad light as well.

My two cents.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You're on solid footing with this one Tampa. Biting the hand that feeds you is a fine reason to get dumped. People who don't see it that way, don't run a business or are being intellectually dishonest.

Also: Complaining in private about your job or boss to your wife or a couple of close friends is one thing, Doing it publically and loudly or on Facebook or other social media to the detriment of the company you work for is a completely different animal. Furthermore it shows the complainer in a very bad light as well.

My two cents.

There has always been and always be a level of criticism leveled at those in charge,(Ecclesiastes 7:21(This is a reference from the Bible for you younger folk) addresses this 3K years ago) some warranted some not. hanging out with co-workers inevitable leads to making fun of the boss' latest memo, hair cut, etc.. When it comes to actionable dialogue it gets very subjective. Where is the line drawn between having fun or letting of steam, and intentional slander meant to cause harm to the company? I for one have always placed a high value on maintaining open communication with supervisors as well as subordinates. If someone is truly unhappy in their work they need to find a different position or employer for their sake as well as their employer's.

Not bad, lol
Quoting JNCali:

There has always been and always be a level of criticism leveled at those in charge,(Ecclesiastes 7:21(This is a reference from the Bible for you younger folk) addresses this 3K years ago) some warranted some not. hanging out with co-workers inevitable leads to making fun of the boss' latest memo, hair cut, etc.. When it comes to actionable dialogue it gets very subjective. Where is the line drawn between having fun or letting of steam, and intentional slander meant to cause harm to the company? I for one have always placed a high value on maintaining open communication with supervisors as well as subordinates. If someone is truly unhappy in their work they need to find a different position or employer for their sake as well as their employer's.


Also Leviticus 19:18 the Lord says to love your neighbor as yourself, if i may throw that in:D
Quoting Cotillion:


...But hey, the USA is the land of the free! or so they say... ;)


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. ;)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You're on solid footing with this one Tampa. Biting the hand that feeds you is a fine reason to get dumped. People who don't see it that way, don't run a business or are being intellectually dishonest.

Also: Complaining in private about your job or boss to your wife or a couple of close friends is one thing, Doing it publically and loudly or on Facebook or other social media to the detriment of the company you work for is a completely different animal. Furthermore it shows the complainer in a very bad light as well.

My two cents.

I suppose those companies with long histories of mistreating workers--and they are legion--would be very sensitive to criticism, and would thus be far more likely to spend piles of cash not improving working conditions, but rather trolling private communications to be sure no one has a bad word to say about them, and pouncing with fury on those who do.

Those companies that treat their workers with respect, on the other hand, have no need to resort to such low-handed tricks; they know that of all the best ways to enhance worker productivity, Big Brother-ish stalking isn't one of them. And if someone does complain, they listen to see whether there's any merit to that complaint, and to see how they can fix it. What they don't do is break out the whip and make an example out of the complainant as a means of silencing criticism from any others who'd dare speak up.

Just my two cents, as well.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. ;)

inconceivable!
I said "Personally I don't think the digging should be disproportionate to the risk. Better to spend time..."

Neopolitan replied
"My personal bottom line is that I'd never care to work for a company with such a high level of mistrust. An employer/employee relationship is in some respects similar to any other relationship; there has to be a certain level of trust for things to work. Absent that trust, I won't waste my time, nor theirs."

Fair enough, I agree a certain level of trust is needed. So there would be no chance of you working for me? Even if I went on to explain that my view of what is disproportionate would, in absense of particularly high risks or noticing warning signals basically be nothing more than an occasional web search on the company name that I would do from time to time anyway. If there was reason for me to suspect something was wrong then could I honestly claim I wouldn't in any circumstance decide I might need further research like more web searches and asking some questions?

Maybe that wasn't the impression I gave by my disproportionate to risk phase, but I didn't feel it worth detailing such a subjective opinion of what I meant by disproportionate earlier. FWIW I don't feel I am backtracking here, just explaining what I meant. In retrospect, I probably should have ruled out anything illegal ealier.
Quoting Neapolitan:

And how deep would your digging go? Out of paranoia, would you hire someone to (or spend hours yourself) keeping tabs on your employees' facebook profiles and twitter accounts? Would you wiretap their telephones? Hack into their personal email accounts? Go through their garbage looking for snippets of paper that might mention your company? Clandestinely seat yourself near them in public places such as theaters and restaurants so you could eavesdrop on their conversations?

Again, I'm not talking about badmouthing one's employer on the clock, or in an official capacity of any kind. I'm talking about a guy complaining to his buddies around a barbecue--or griping on a weather blog forum--on a Saturday, then being dismissed when he arrives at work on Monday. If anyone is comfortable with that, by all means please speak up.

(FWIW, my original comment was in response to a person who replied to someone who'd complained about his job at Wal-Mart by saying, "You better hope Walmart Management does not see this.....GOOD THING I DON'T MANAGE FOR THEM.....YOU WOULD BE POOOOFFF!")



Again, yes to dismiss someone for badmouthing their company in an open forum.....IS GROUNDS FOR TERMINATION.....WOW...the way the Liberal Left think.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You're on solid footing with this one Tampa. Biting the hand that feeds you is a fine reason to get dumped. People who don't see it that way, don't run a business or are being intellectually dishonest.

Also: Complaining in private about your job or boss to your wife or a couple of close friends is one thing, Doing it publically and loudly or on Facebook or other social media to the detriment of the company you work for is a completely different animal. Furthermore it shows the complainer in a very bad light as well.

My two cents.


Should a company's reputation be on sound footing then a few Facebook comments would be meaningless, by anyone. Should the company suffer from poor public respect, due to the company's business practices, then everyone will be saying bad things about the company. Either way, a public criticism of a company will be received, by the public, based upon the company's public reputation and not by what anyone else says about them. .... Since "companies are people too", then perhaps they would benefit by being a little less thin skinned? Else, what are they hiding?

Just my 2 cents and I bump the ante 1 cent. ;-)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Should a company's reputation be on sound footing then a few Facebook comments would be meaningless, by anyone. Should the company suffer from poor public respect, due to the company's business practices, then everyone will be saying bad things about the company. Either way, a public criticism of a company will be received, by the public, based upon the company's public reputation and not by what anyone else says about them. .... Since "companies are people too", then perhaps they would benefit by being a little less thin skinned? Else, what are they hiding?

Just my 2 cents and I bump the ante 1 cent. ;-)



Good point for anyone else other than their own Employee. But, to allow an Employee to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by an Employer to have a company Employee bash its company in open forum. Any company that would allow such practice would not ever be in practice long or would never make it to bigger and better places.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Good point for anyone else other than their own Employee. But, to allow an Employee to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by an Employer to have a company Employee bash its company in open forum. Any company that would allow such practice would not ever be in practice long or would never make it to bigger and better places.


I disagree, with respect as to which company (Wal-Mart) this conversation was started over. Did this person say anything that is not already common knowledge among all of us? I would have to say, no. So how could this person's comments be deemed as destructive towards the company in question? .... "Loyalty" will always come with some degree of risk, for all parties involved.
90L!...I called it days ago:)

Quoting TampaSpin:


What do you think caused that too happen off the Coast of Africa?


There is underwater volcanoes/vents in the area as the other area in Central Atl. There is that underwater exploding one off Africa. I wunder if their resolution got better or if the over all movement of water is being that much more disturbed by the erupting volcano.


I can't believe ya'll are still arguing about working for Walmart..

Some seem to have forgotten we are talking about Walmart..or doesn't know anyone that has had the misfortune of working there. It's an evil corporation that squeezes dimes from the product manufacturers, shippers, employees & customers...not some mom & pop being unfairly slammed. They have a reputation for a reason. Yeah they can fire him at anytime..

On the other hand we have our wunderblogger..we've come to know over the years. You are not your Dad. You don't have the responsibilities of life yet that would force you to swallow it... Run boy. Even if you end up unemployed a bit..it might be the lesson that causes you to make the life you want, cause a corporation isn't likely just to hand that to you.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I disagree, with respect as to which company (Wal-Mart) this conversation was started over. Did this person say anything that is not already common knowledge among all of us? I would have to say, no. So how could this person's comments be deemed as destructive towards the company in question? .... "Loyalty" will always comes with some degree of risk, for all parties involved.


So your gonna allow a company you run, to allow your employees to come on a open forum and tell the world what a horrible place it is to work for......LOL...OK! Good LUCK!
Quoting TampaSpin:



Good point for anyone else other than their own Employee. But, to allow an Employee to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by an Employer to have a company Employee bash its company in open forum. Any company that would allow such practice would not ever be in practice long or would never make it to bigger and better places.

It occurs to me that by simply changing just a few words, that could read like a passage right out of the DPRK playbook:

"...to allow a citizen to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by a government to have a citizen bash its government in open forum. Any nation that would allow such practice would not ever be a nation for long..."

"Shoot the messenger" is always the practice of last resort for despots, whether they govern a nation or a business.
Quoting Skyepony:


There is underwater volcanoes/vents in the area as the other area in Central Atl. There is that underwater exploding one off Africa. I wunder if their resolution got better or if the over all movement of water is being that much more disturbed by the erupting volcano.


I can't believe ya'll are still arguing about working for Walmart..

Some seem to have forgotten we are talking about Walmart..or doesn't know anyone that has had the misfortune of working there. It's an evil corporation that squeezes dimes from the product manufacturers, shippers, employees & customers...not some mom & pop being unfairly slammed. They have a reputation for a reason. Yeah they can fire him at anytime..

On the other hand we have our wunderblogger..we've come to know over the years. You are not your Dad. You don't have the responsibilities of life yet that would force you to swallow it... Run boy. Even if you end up unemployed a bit..it might be the lesson that causes you to make the life you want, cause a corporation isn't likely just to hand that to you.



I kinda thought it might have been from all the UnderWater Volcanic activity there. History also shows some very unexpected Rogue Waves that also occur in that area.
Quoting Neapolitan:

It occurs to me that by simply changing just a few words, that could read like a passage right out of the DPRK playbook:

"...to allow a citizen to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by a government to have a citizen bash its government in open forum. Any nation that would allow such practice would not ever be a nation for long..."

"Shoot the messenger" is always the practice of last resort for despots, whether they govern a nation or a business.


OMG......ROFLMAO
Quoting TampaSpin:


So your gonna allow a company you run, to allow your employees to come on a open forum and tell the world what a horrible place it is to work for......LOL...OK! Good LUCK!


You do realize that we are talking about Wal-Mart, do you not?

Should my company be on a sound public footing, then no, I would not fear any truthful comments an employee would say about the company. As long as this employee satisfied the responsibilities of their job then this is what I would require of them. Would I be looking to advance then within the company. No, they would have burned that bridge. Realistically, they will eliminate themselves anyway and usually in short order.
This blog drives me crazy how the 90% on here think so differently than what the 70% of the rest of the ConUs believe and think! My wife says Xmas has to go up today so i gotta get going. Have a good day and get rid of those you don't trust and honor you!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You do realize that we are talking about Wal-Mart, do you not?

Should my company be on a sound public footing, then no, I would not fear any truthful comments an employee would say about the company. As long as this employee satisfied the responsibilities of their job then this is what I would require of them. Would I be looking to advance then within the company. No, they would have burned that bridge. Realistically, they will eliminate themselves anyway and usually in short order.


This really makes NO Difference What company.
Quoting TampaSpin:
This blog drives me crazy how the 90% on here think so differently than what the 70% of the rest of the ConUs believe and think! My wife says Xmas has to go up today so i gotta get going. Have a good day and get rid of those you don't trust and honor you!


Good luck with the Christmas decorations. May your weather be ideally suited for it.
Quoting TampaSpin:


This really makes NO Difference What company.


I totally agree.
Polar vortex over Hudson Bay starting to rotate around, looks to not bring motherload into lower 48 except small pieces, but after the 16th towards Christmas it's possible for that polar vortex to swing back around west and south bringing Major Arctic Outbreak after the 16th to Christmas
everybody is going political again, lol.
i need to shave xD
lets give my view of 90L....i would mostly agree with TropicalAnalystwx13 about development since it is further south then 99L was.....the 850mb vorticy is very much stretched NNW to SSE, but due to wind shear around 20-40kts over the system decreasing on the left side staying idle/increasing on the right, this might consolidate SLOWLY. Here is a Link to the satellite loop, or an image if you prefer for a quick view:)
New blog.