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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

The 2008 Flying Reindeer Forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:04 AM GMT on December 23, 2008

Santa's reindeer will be hitting the skies tomorrow, and the official Weather Underground Flying Reindeer Forecast (FRF) calls for some tricky turbulence and tough sledding for Santa in some regions of the world. As Santa begins his adventure, temperatures will be a crisp -20 degrees at the North Pole Workshop. Foggy conditions will require Rudolph's red nose to light the way, since the light winds blowing simultaneously from the south and north at the Pole (think about that for a second, it's true!) will not be strong enough to disperse the fog. As Santa heads south through Siberia into China, he'll be riding a strong jet of polar air that could bring some tricky turbulence. Santa's sleigh will be heavily loaded at this point, and he'll have to negotiate the turbulent skies with great caution to avoid dumping any of his precious cargo. Fortunately, heavy snows cover much of China and eastern Asia, allowing smooth rooftop landings for the sleigh.



As Santa heads south to the Australian continent, the sledding gets much tougher. He'll have to dodge Tropical Cyclone Billy, along Australia's northwest coast. With hot summer temperatures prevailing across Australia, Santa's team will have to execute pinpoint rooftop landings to avoid showering sparks on the dry, fire-prone vegetation. As Santa heads west across Indonesia into southern Asia, he'll need to call upon the thunderstorm avoidance skills of his reindeer, Donner and Blitzen. These storm-savvy critters, named after the German words for thunder and lightning, are experts at sniffing out turbulence-free routes through seemingly impenetrable areas of thunderstorms.

Approaching Turkey, Santa will have to avoid the razor-sharp blue triangles of a cold front. Once through the front, though, he'll find ideal conditions over Turkey and Eastern Europe, where cold temperatures and snowy rooftops abound. However, the sledding quickly degrades over Western Europe, where only Scandinavia and the Alps can expect a white Christmas.

The Western Hemisphere portion of the Flying Reindeer Forecast calls for smooth flying over South America and the Caribbean. But the best conditions of Santa's entire journey await over the United States and Canada, where a series of major snow storms have left excellent rooftop snows. In the Northeast U.S., though, it'll be slow slogging for Santa, with heavy rains expected in an advance of a strong cold front expected to track through on Christmas Eve. The cold front will bring thunderstorms to the Southeast, and Donner and Blitzen will be called upon to safely guide Santa's sleigh through the front to the Southern U.S., where smooth sailing and clear skies will prevail. Excellent sledding awaits Santa in the Midwest and Northwest, where fresh snow from the latest in a series of significant winter storms will delight Santa's reindeer. However, significant rains over Southern California could make for some dangerous mudslide conditions. Santa may be forced to break into his stash to find boogie boards intended for California kids, to help him ride out the mudflows. Santa's final leg northwards across Alaska to the North Pole should be mostly uneventful, and we can expect that clear skies over the Pole upon Santa's return will make for a beautiful Christmas scene as Rudolph guides the sleigh to a perfect landing.

Merry Christmas, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Humor

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new blog, Dr. Masters. Merry Christmas to you!

Anyway, near Youngdong in Gangwon Province, South Korea, a blizzard caused up to 115 cm (around 45.3 in) of snow there.
The flight plan unfoldeth. Safe travel, Santa and crew, safe travel to all. Merry Christmas to you, Dr. Masters! Merry Christmas, Feliz Navidad, Happy Chanukka, Joyous New Year with great respect to all the world's good people!
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FORTY-FIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:50 PM WDT December 23 2008
=====================================

At 3:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [990 hPa] located at 17.6S 121.1E or 115 kms west-northwest of Broome and 410 kms northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

TC Billy is currently located west northwest of Broome and is now moving away from the Kimberley coast. In the next 24 hours the cyclone is expected to move in a westerly direction.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible about western parts of the Dampier Peninsula this evening. GALES may develop along the Pilbara coast east of Whim Creek during Wednesday if Billy takes a more southwest track than forecast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Beagle Bay to Whim Creek.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie.

The Cyclone WARNING between Cockatoo Island and Beagle Bay has been CANCELLED.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
================================
12 HRS: 17.9S 119.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.9S 118.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.3S 115.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 16.1S 112.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks:
Billy is located by radar west of the Dampier Peninsular and over the past 6 hours has moved in a west southwest direction. It is difficult to assign a DT number and intensity has been based on MET of 3.0.

Now that the system has moved away from land intensification is forecast in the next 24 to 72 hours in a reasonably favourable shear environment.

Model guidance is consistent with a steady W'ly track then a W/NW track in the 36-72 hour timeframe, well off the Pilbara coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. However, motion is partially dependent on the erosion of the peripheral ridge by the system currently over the Top End, hence the risk of a Pilbara coastal impact can not be dismissed.
Billy's pressure continues to go up and down, LOL
Just wondering if I missed something in the Blog, would Santa be going to Africa?
Great Christmas Blog Doc. You and yours have Merry Christmas.
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, a magical Solstice and/or however you celebrate this season -- happy holidays all. Stay safe.
Morning All - Happy Hanaukkah and Merry Christmas! Off to do more shopping - just started yesterday. :(

Found this on CNN and though that it sounded like something the folks here would do. Heartwarming.

Link
AAAAaaaRRRgggghhhhh!!!!
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Watches/warnings in effect for coastal British Columbia...

Snowfall warning for:
=new= Metro Vancouver
=new= Greater Victoria
=new= Fraser valley
=new= Howe Sound
=new= Sunshine Coast
=new= southern Gulf islands
=new= East Vancouver Island
=new= west Vancouver Island
=new= inland Vancouver Island
=new= North Vancouver Island
=new= Central Coast - Coastal Sections
=new= North Coast - Coastal Sections.

10 to 20 cm of snow expected tonight and Wednesday.

This is a warning that significant snowfall is expected or
occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..
listen for updated statements.

Arctic outflow warning for:
Central Coast - Inland Sections
North Coast - Inland Sections.

Strong outflow winds and cold Arctic air will continue to
produce wind chill values below minus 20 today.

Quoting jaikishan:
Just wondering if I missed something in the Blog, would Santa be going to Africa?


Have to ask.. why wouldn't he?
Merry Christmas,Dr. Masters,and to all Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
Merry Christmas, Dr Masters. Thank you for all you do!

8. -- I know the feeling re last minute shopping. I started yesterday too. Day two of my three day extravaganza starts soon. I actually enjoy the craziness; I hope you do too.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all!
Awsome Blog today Dr. M.
Wish you and your family a Very Merry Christmas!!
12. Every year I tell myself that I"m going to get it done early...never happens. I think I am an adrenaline junkie or maybe a masochist. Problem here is we have one way in to where you need to go and one way out...so basically you sit in traffic forever before you can get to where you're going. At least people are being patient.

Excellent Blog Jeff and happy holidays to you.
And tomorrow all the news shows will start reporting the tracking of the sleigh as it makes its trip around the world.
I updated my Blog last nite if anyone would like to reveiw. I also completed the Christmas Song loop that some was wanting to play on Christmas Eve. I hope you all enjoy as my Wife helped me Alot with it. Merry Christmas Everyone.......Hitting the Mall for last minute stuff. Yeppieeee......Kids are all home from College and we are loving it.

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link with a Chrismas Forecast
"As Santa heads south through Siberia into China" To pick up the toys....
Merry Christmas Dr. Jeff Masters....to you and your Family



Santa Tracking Link with a Countdown till take off.......LOL

Santa Tracking Link
Good Morning All:

Thanks for the update Dr. M.
Merry Eve of Christmas Eve! :)
Shopping? why the rush..I still have all of tomorrow... but I really should start soon I guess?
Quoting Orcasystems:
Shopping? why the rush..I still have all of tomorrow... but I really should start soon I guess?
Things will cost less after Christmas. LOL
Thanks Jeff Masters.
You have to consider the fact that Santa may well be a macroscopic quantum object. That would totally change the way he does his work.

Hey...Everyone have a happy and healthy holiday season! More to come in June 2009!!
here comes santa claus here comes santa claus

Have a Merry Christmas everyone. Doc thanks for the blog!

Tampa thanks for the link =)
Merry Christmas, Doc M!!! Loved the post...Joy and blessings to you and yours..
As Dr masters Blog is about Reindeer I just thought this might be something for you to think about this Christmas :))

According to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, while both male and female reindeer grow antlers in the summer each year, male reindeer drop their antlers at the beginning of winter, usually late November.

However female reindeer retain their antlers 'till after they give birth in the spring.

Therefore, according to EVERY historical rendition depicting Santa's reindeer in late December, the beloved reindeer, from Blitzen to Rudolph had to be GIRLS !

We should have known. ONLY WOMEN would be able to drag a fat man in a red velvet suit all around the world in one night and not get lost!!!

Sorry guys!! LOL

A very Happy Christmas to you all!!
Just wanted to wish Happy Holidays to everyone. Not much to talk about weatherwise here. Winds are about 25-30 mph and raining right now but not hot which is great Temps in the upper 70's. Happy Holiday to all.
Merry Christmas and Happy 2009 to you all. Thanks for all the insight and entertainment in 2008!
Happy holidays to all here and may you all have a prosperous 2009. (with less hurricanes)
Merry Christmas, Dr. Masters!

I'll be watching the skies on Christmas Eve!

(Bug wanders off, humming "♫ ♪ Up on the rooftop, click, click, click....... ♫ ♪")
HOHOHOHOHOHOHO, 'tis the Season to be Jolly.
Been away for a few days. All is well.

Sending EVERYONE, HAPPY CHRISTMAS GREETINGS, from the Sunny, Warm, Breezy island of Trinidad.
Hoping that all is Peace and Harmony with you and yours, and that we all keep The Christ, in CHRISTmas.

Bliss to the World........
Gotta love that forecast.
Merry Christmas to Dr. Masters and the Weather Underground Staff.
25. halebopp 4:22 PM GMT on December 23, 2008
You have to consider the fact that Santa may well be a macroscopic quantum object. That would totally change the way he does his work.


You really know how to take the magic out of Christmas
Whoooa Nelly - just loved the post Dr. M -- sure wish I could saddle up those rain deer and go for a ride in the sky
Classic post Dr. M, I was wondering what you might up for christmas. 75 degrees here, choppy surf all in all not a bad day.
Great blog Dr. M!!!!

Merry Christmas everyone!!
HOLIDAY OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
Merry Christmas Dr Masters!!!
Merry Christmas Dr. M and all! Awesome photo of the Reindeer, thank you.
Merry Christmas greetings from over the pond! :)
Quoting jaikishan:
Just wondering if I missed something in the Blog, would Santa be going to Africa?
Maybe they get the three wise men there.
Good afternoon... Merry Xmas and New Years too.

We we'll see how 2009 will treat us Weather wise. :) It will be another interesting year if a weak La Nina to neutral ENSO conditions do persist well into next year.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FORTY-NINE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:45 AM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================

At 3:00 am WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category One [986 hPa] located at 17.9S 120.3E or 205 kms west of Broome and 325 kms north-northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-southwest at 5 knots.

TC Billy is currently located west of Broome and is moving away from the Kimberley coast. In the next 24 hours the cyclone is expected to move in a generally westerly direction.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Bidyadanga and Whim Creek during Wednesday if Billy takes a more southwest track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Bidyadanga to Whim Creek.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie.

The Cyclone WARNING from Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga has been cancelled.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
==================================
12 HRS: 17.9S 119.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.6S 117.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.7S 114.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 15.6S 112.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks:
Billy was located by radar west of Broome moving steadily west southwest, although clearly undergoing trochoidal oscillation along the mean track. It is difficult to assign a DT number on most images. Intensity has been based on PAT of 3.0.

The system is showing renewed convection near the centre on satellite, and slightly improved structure near the centre on radar. As Billy is now moving away from the coast in a generally favourable environment it is expected that an intensification trend may become established during Wednesday. The small size of the system complicates intensity forecasting with the system likely to be responsive to subtle changes in the environment, and capable of intensifying and weakening rapidly.

Model guidance is consistent with a steady W'ly track then a W/NW track in the 24-72 hour timeframe, well off the Pilbara coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. However, motion is partially dependent on the erosion of the peripheral ridge by the system currently over the Top End, hence the risk of a Pilbara coastal impact can not yet be dismissed.
No snow predicted for Everglades. ;>)
Come on down Santa, the water's fine!!!
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
5:00 am ACST December 24 2008

At 3:30 am CST, a TROPICAL LOW [1002 hPa] located over the southern Darwin-Daly District. it was near 15.3S 132.6E, or about 100 kilometres south southeast of Katherine, moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to continue moving towards the west southwest and into the northern Victoria River District during today.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h with thunderstorms may occur in the western
Roper-McArthur, southern Darwin-Daly, including Katherine and the northern
Victoria River Districts this morning before easing during the day.

Heavy rain currently falling over the Arnhem, western Roper-McArthur and
southern Darwin-Daly Districts, including the Katherine region, is expected to
continue today and extend further into the northern Victoria River District
during the morning, causing significant stream rises and flooding of low lying
areas. Rain will begin to ease from the east later today.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose
outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses.
Quoting NEwxguy:
25. halebopp 4:22 PM GMT on December 23, 2008
You have to consider the fact that Santa may well be a macroscopic quantum object. That would totally change the way he does his work.


You really know how to take the magic out of Christmas
Are u kidding? That made me believe in Santa all over again . . . lol.
Billy's eye showing up as cloud temperatures inside the eye warm adiabatically.
STORMTOP just sent me a PM saying that Santa isn't real.
DS was just asking when Santa has to leave the North Pole--thanks for the link to the countdown! We'll be tracking all day tomorrow!

Merry Christmas everyone! (and Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwaanza, Happy New Year,Happy EVERYTHING!!)
54. ayi
Quoting sandiquiz:
As Dr masters Blog is about Reindeer I just thought this might be something for you to think about this Christmas :))

According to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, while both male and female reindeer grow antlers in the summer each year, male reindeer drop their antlers at the beginning of winter, usually late November.

However female reindeer retain their antlers 'till after they give birth in the spring.

Therefore, according to EVERY historical rendition depicting Santa's reindeer in late December, the beloved reindeer, from Blitzen to Rudolph had to be GIRLS !

We should have known. ONLY WOMEN would be able to drag a fat man in a red velvet suit all around the world in one night and not get lost!!!

Sorry guys!! LOL

A very Happy Christmas to you all!!

In fact it proves that Santa's base is at the south pole. That's why he starts off with New Zealand because it's so close. The north pole address is just a decoy to stop too many visitors from disturbing his work through the year making all those toys.

Merry Christmas everyone.
The CFS forecast for La Nina for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

Quoting WxLogic:
Good afternoon... Merry Xmas and New Years too.

We we'll see how 2009 will treat us Weather wise. :) It will be another interesting year if a weak La Nina to neutral ENSO conditions do persist well into next year.


It is already at moderate levels (usually defined as -1.0 to -1.4), some models forecast a strong La Nina similar to early this year over the next few months:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Quoting ayi:

In fact it proves that Santa's base is at the south pole. That's why he starts off with New Zealand because it's so close. The north pole address is just a decoy to stop too many visitors from disturbing his work through the year making all those toys.

Merry Christmas everyone.


It is now. No ice at the North pole to put a base on. ;)
Statement as of 2:40 PM CST on December 23, 2008

... Record yearly maximum precipitation set at St. Louis MO...

A record yearly maximum precipitation of 55.00 inches was set at
St. Louis today. This breaks the old record of 54.97 inches set
in 1982.

This total will increase as more precipitation is expected over
the next 24 hours and again late this week and into the weekend.
It's still early but if these wind shear profiles are any accurate we may be in for another active hurricane season which is also part of the active Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Find it interesting that the below average values are in the MDR and across the Gulf and along the eastern seaboard. These values would be much lower than what we have seen this past season. Lower wind shear probably resultant of mitigating TUTT and an expanding sub-equatorial ridge. The Precip patterns from the CFS also look to have another active ITCZ.
Afternoon all. Nice post Dr. M! Just wanted to wish everyone here a Merry Christmas and a safe and festive New Year! Blessings to all.
Loved your post, Dr.Masters !

We won't have a white christmas, as all the snow disappeared (again). Only in the mountains, over 1200 mtrs have snow, but there really abundant.

Wish all WU bloggers a happy christmas, hope the weather will "behave".

greetings, Starwoman
Anybody know why they don't celebrate Christmas at Georgia Tech?
...they can't find three wise men...or a virgin...
Quoting mobal:
"As Santa heads south through Siberia into China" To pick up the toys....
LMAO
A safe and Merry Christmas To all those in Wunderland!
Quoting presslord:
...they can't find three wise men...or a virgin...


lol?
Quoting presslord:
...they can't find three wise men...or a virgin...
LOL
Press!!! That is HILARIOUS. Thanks for the laughs! I'm going to twist that a bit...and just go for Georgia in general...

Someone PLEASE put us on the prayer list to get us out of pergatory (Georgia) and back to San Diego! I think we must have done something terribly wrong and we're waiting to get prayed out!

Merry Christmas everyone...
careful Mel...I'm a University of Georgia grad....Go Dawgs!!!!!!!
oh press...ugh...i have the G tattoo on my back...now i look and go "seemed like a good idea at the time"
Arrrrrggg I agree with you on this one I am in Victoria, have had WAAAAAY TOOO much of this crud need it to stop now.


Quoting Orcasystems:
AAAAaaaRRRgggghhhhh!!!!
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

Watches/warnings in effect for coastal British Columbia...

Snowfall warning for:
=new= Metro Vancouver
=new= Greater Victoria
=new= Fraser valley
=new= Howe Sound
=new= Sunshine Coast
=new= southern Gulf islands
=new= East Vancouver Island
=new= west Vancouver Island
=new= inland Vancouver Island
=new= North Vancouver Island
=new= Central Coast - Coastal Sections
=new= North Coast - Coastal Sections.

10 to 20 cm of snow expected tonight and Wednesday.

This is a warning that significant snowfall is expected or
occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..
listen for updated statements.

Arctic outflow warning for:
Central Coast - Inland Sections
North Coast - Inland Sections.

Strong outflow winds and cold Arctic air will continue to
produce wind chill values below minus 20 today.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
6:50 AM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 am WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Two [983 hPa] located at 17.8S 120.0E or 235 kms west of Broome and 315 kms north-northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

TC Billy is currently located west of Broome and is moving away from the Kimberley coast. In the next 24 hours the cyclone is expected to move in a generally westerly direction.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Wallal and Whim Creek during Wednesday if Billy takes a more southwest track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Wallal to Whim Creek.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie.

The Cyclone WARNING from Bidyadanga to Wallal has been cancelled.
If this Wward trend continues we may see a hurricane out of Billy after all. What about the other T low they were watching?
The tropical low is well overland the northern region of the Northern Territory.

the eye is sloppy but there
Christmas is here (almost) Happy Holidays for those of you who don't celebrate it and those who celebrate it too I guess.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-ONE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
9:50 AM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================

At 9:00 am WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Two [975 hPa] located at 17.8S 119.9E or 310 kms north-northeast of Port Hedland and 250 kms west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

TC Billy is currently located well west of Broome and is moving away from the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts. In the next 24 hours the cyclone is expected to move in a generally westerly direction.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie during Wednesday night and early Thursday but only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie.

The Cyclone WARNING from Wallal to Pardoo has been cancelled.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
==============================
12 HRS: 17.8S 118.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.4S 117.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 16.2S 114.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 15.2S 112.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks:
Billy was located by radar west of Broome moving steadily west, although clearly undergoing trochoidal oscillation along the mean track. Recent imagery suggests continuing intensification with the apparent formation of an eye but contstrained by MET to a CI of 4.0.

Intensifaction is expected to continue over the next 24 hours as Billy moves west in a favourable environment.

Model guidance is consistent with a steady W'ly track then a W/NW track in the 24-72 hour timeframe, well off the Pilbara coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south.

It appears less likely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast, but a small risk of gales remains for coastal parts of the Pilbara.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year from all of us in the Cayman Islands.

Image credit : By hattiew on Flickr
Seven Mile Beach, Grand Cayman


Post 77.
Now, thats a Christmas scene I can relate to, man.

Kman-- somehow I'm at the wrong beach !!!
Quoting pottery:
Post 77.
Now, thats a Christmas scene I can relate to, man.

Totally agree Pottery -- who needs snow when there's beautiful white sand.......
Although..... that's just about as flat as I am (oops meaning the GULF)---- no waves for Christmas this year in the Gulf...

I guess I was too naughty
LOL MEL!! --do you really have a tattoo??
thankfully a warmer night here in SWFL to walk the dog then last night --Jupiter has been so bright -- - should be beautiful weather to work & ride horses with young buck tomorrow early morning -- I'm out -- Good nite ALL
Quoting pottery:
Post 77.
Now, thats a Christmas scene I can relate to, man.

Me too! The real white Christmas. . .
It's been cooler here tonight due to the frontal passage and the resulting winds. Hopefully by Thursday night the winds will have moderated somewhat. Keeping the Junkanoo forecast in mind!
Kman...you are a cold cruel man...
Merry Christmas to all
Love the blog Dr. M!!!

The Reason For The Season

...and my favorite rendition of Oh Holy Night



Have a VERY Merry Christmas!!!
Hi Everybody,

Just wanted to say Merry Christmas to everyone....

Taco :0) :0) :0)
merry christmas
peace on earth
good will to all humankind
Good evening everyone.....Santa takes off in 7 hours......you all have 7 hours to bribe Santa if you have not been good......LOL
Merry Christmas everyone....this year, especially, we have a lot to be proud of and grategul for...Thanks!!! Paul
If anyone would like or need Christmas Music i put together 47 songs on my Blog that plays for nearly 3 hours if anyone needs......
Go to my blog to check it out!!
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-TWO
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
12:40 PM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================

At 12:00 pm WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Three [972 hPa] located at 17.8S 119.6E or 300 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 280 kilometres west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 85-90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified this morning well to the west of Broome and is moving away from the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts. Billy is expected to continue moving westwards today before taking a more northwesterly track in the coming days.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie during Wednesday night and early Thursday but only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie
Dr Masters,

I just want to thank you so much for heading up this wonderful community of so many friends and people who can help us with weather.

WU is the BEST and I have met so many great friends since Summer of 2005.

I want to wish you and your family and Loved ones a Very Merry Christmas and hope you are enjoying your HOliday Week!

Gams


and to all my friends who only post here , I wish you a Merry Christmas also!!!
94. how dare you interrupt the Christmas frivolity with tropical weather??? LOL

must be AGW rearing its ugly head! LOL
don't get me wrong...i LOVE Christmas...this comes from your friendly eco-bah-humbuggers....despite record cold...go figure :)

Scientists warn Christmas lights harm the planet

Link
98. KRL
In consideration of the most tumultuous financial year in America's history, time for an upbeat Christmas song. LOL

Feliz Navidad y Prospero Ano Nuevo!



Happy Holidays!




Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-THREE
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:50 PM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================


At 3:00 pm WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy [962 hPa] located at 17.9S 119.3E or 280 kms north-northeast of Port Hedland and 310 kms west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified to the north of Port Hedland and is moving steadily westwards. Billy is expected to continue to intensify over the next 24 hours and should begin to take a more northwesterly track on Christmas Day.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie tonight and early Thursday but only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
===================================
12 HRS: 17.7S 117.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 17.4S 116.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 16.2S 113.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 15.6S 110.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks:
Billy was located by radar north of Port Hedland moving steadily west, although still undergoing slight trochoidal oscillations along the mean track. Billy has intensified rapidly over the past 12 hours with the formation of a ragged eye with a DT of 5.0.

Intensifaction is expected to continue over the next 24 hours as Billy moves west in a favourable environment before weakening begins due to increased shear and slightly cooler waters.

Model guidance is consistent with a steady W/NW track over the next 72 hours under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, with the system remaining well off the Pilbara coast.

It appears less likely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast, but a small risk of gales remains for coastal parts of the Pilbara.
pearlanaggie.. here's some more LOL =)

Reckon Santa will throw down some Dropsondes while he's around Billy? Maybe do a Vortex message for us?

In conjunction with the reindeer forecast, Santa's on his way in just under two hours...

Link

(A little fun :))
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-FOUR
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
6:50 PM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 pm WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [951 hPa] located at 17.9S 119.0E or 275 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 340 kilometres west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified to the north of Port Hedland and is moving steadily westwards. Billy is expected to remain intense over the next 24 hours and should begin to take a more northwesterly track on Christmas Day.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie overnight or early on Christmas day, but only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track than expected. Minimal rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie.
Good Morning! Waiting for a bit more daybreak to walk the dog and head out east to work the horses.
SWFL GOMEX SURFERS
The warm-up continues here in SWFL -- with a small chance of thigh high waves at the best south facing beaches from the gradient -- Flat for Thursday -- small chance for a bump on Saturday.
Been interesting watching Billy -- didn't think he'd intensify -- Hoping he doesn't ruin Christmas down under
Morning Surfie :)
Quoting surfmom:
Been interesting watching Billy -- didn't think he'd intensify -- Hoping he doesn't ruin Christmas down under


Think he'll find sand in his stocking?
Hey Cot., howz the weather by you -- nice by me -- young buck went jet sking yesteerday.... I've missed most of the surf --too tired, too much work... or it just seemed too cold on the days it came in.

Gulf is at 65degrees - warmed up some - still wetsuit for me...... wanted to catch this afternoon's bump -- but it's Christmas Eve -- so I gotta do the appropriate role playing part --
LOL -- sand or scorpions or some other nasties they have down under -- sea snakes, stinging centipedes....... definitely not bottles of Newcastle
Quoting surfmom:
Hey Cot., howz the weather by you -- nice by me -- young buck went jet sking yesteerday.... I've missed most of the surf --too tired, too much work... or it just seemed too cold on the days it came in.

Gulf is at 65degrees - warmed up some - still wetsuit for me...... wanted to catch this afternoon's bump -- but it's Christmas Eve -- so I gotta do the appropriate role playing part --


A bit misty, but relatively clear. Not too cold, around the 40s. (I know for you that sounds juxtapositional.) Not expected to snow though. Seems it'll be like this for the next few days.
Quoting surfmom:
LOL -- sand or scorpions or some other nasties they have down under -- sea snakes, stinging centipedes....... definitely not bottles of Newcastle


Newcy Brown Ale? You have that there?
Yes we do -- you have to know where to go though -- most Americans drink domestic -- not ME -- Newcastle is one of my favorites -- then German Beers -- drink only beer from glass bottles as well and most prefer Tap -- otherwise i pass
I'm off and running - take care Cot -- Glad to hear you're not freezing your butt off. Hope your Purrboxes are keeping you cheery!!!
Quoting surfmom:
Yes we do -- you have to know where to go though -- most Americans drink domestic -- not ME -- Newcastle is one of my favorites -- then German Beers -- drink only beer from glass bottles as well and most prefer Tap -- otherwise i pass


American beer is terrible. I can see why you choose the imports. ;)
Merry Christmas all:




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SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
343 AM EST WED DEC 24 2008

VALID 12Z WED DEC 24 2008 - 00Z FRI DEC 26 2008

A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY...WILL MERGE TOGETHER BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL CARRY A COLD FRONT EASTWARD WHICH WILL SET THE FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO BISECT AN ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE CONTENT JUST
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. PLENTY OF MILDER AIR ADVANCING NORTHWARD
WITH THE ACTIVE GULF SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF SYSTEM WILL BE A SNOWFALL EVENT
WHICH COVERS A REGION STRETCHING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
TIER. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN PAST DAYS
DESPITE THE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED
OFFSHORE...TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH 60S FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS.

THE WEATHER WILL NOT QUIET DOWN ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 60
HOURS. THE WEAKER OF THE TWO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG
CLOSED LOW HAS ITS EYES SET ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BEGINNING
WITH THE SOUTHERN MOST SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION SHOULD COMMENCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
HEAVIER ACTION WILL NOT HIT THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST FOCUS FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE INTERIOR ELEVATED TERRAIN WHERE THE
TOPOGRAPHY WILL ENHANCE AMOUNTS. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...DIMINISHED
ENERGY WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE NOTICEABLE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS IN
TIME. HOWEVER...THE WEST WILL NOT ESCAPE JUST YET AS THE MORE
POWERFUL OF THE TWO SYSTEMS PLUNGES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK OFF INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL DRIVE INTO THE WESTERN
TIER. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL HELP BRING A
LARGE COMPLEX OF PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR REGIONS. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADAS AND THE WASATCH. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THREAT...PLEASE READ THE
DISCUSSION PROVIDED BY HPC AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFHSD.HTML.

THE WARM SPOT ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THIS
WILL INCREASE THE HUMIDITY OVER THE REGION BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


RUBIN-OSTER


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Severe potential for Friday and Saturday:


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The events of the last one hundred days are at the heart of this special season...everyone here should feel a particular connection this celebration this year...

Merry Christmas to all of you...

www.portlight.org
Morning everyone -

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Good morning everyone.. Happy Holidays, and Merry Christmas to all!
MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYONE! MAY 2009 BRING MUCH HAPPINESS AND JOY.

It is a gorgeous Central Florida morning.

Must listen to Tim's music tonight and tomorrow.
Too all my WU Friends,
What a year this has been to all and Many! Some have had very strong moments this past year where our faith in God was questioned, I'm sure. But, somehow your faith has pulled you thru. Don't ever question the love the good Man above has for you and your family as things do happen for a reason! But, always question your own faith to God and how it could be stronger and make your Family a stronger Family in result. God Bless you all!



MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL MY FRIENDS FROM MY FAMILY TO YOURS,

Tim
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-FOUR
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
6:50 PM WDT December 24 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 pm WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [951 hPa] located at 17.9S 119.0E or 275 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 340 kilometres west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified to the north of Port Hedland and is moving steadily westwards. Billy is expected to remain intense over the next 24 hours and should begin to take a more northwesterly track on Christmas Day.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie overnight or early on Christmas day, but only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track than expected. Minimal rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie.


Wow.. Billy went boom fast.
VORTFIX-I you would,please explain the severe weather situation for this weekend a little further,my mom lives in central Tennesee and is very ill with cancer and may need someone to be with her.
Billy's what we would call in the Atlantic and Pacific a Category 3 hurricane.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Excellent one Tim!
Quoting hydrus:
VORTFIX-I you would,please explain the severe weather situation for this weekend a little further,my mom lives in central Tennesee and is very ill with cancer and may need someone to be with her.




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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POST-CHRISTMAS WEEKEND SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS FOR DAY 4/SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER 00Z ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS. THIS
TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO
SATURDAY HAS RAMIFICATIONS FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
RISK ON DAY 4/SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH REGION.

EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING EARLY DAY 4/SATURDAY ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE. A RATHER
BROAD AND ESPECIALLY MOIST PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR FOR THE SEASON
WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MULTIPLE
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS REFLECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
60 F DEWPOINTS MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS A
GENERAL CONTINUATION OF THE DAY 3/FRIDAY SCENARIO...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR/RICH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON DAY
4/SATURDAY.

THEREAFTER...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED INTO DAY 5/SUNDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DEVELOPING
ZONAL UPPER FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A LIMITED SEVERE RISK
OVERALL.



This is what the Storm Prediction Center has to say about the severe potential for Saturday Hydrus.

I'll be keeping a close watch on this upcoming severe possibility over the holiday.
Check my blog for further details as this weather situation unfolds the next couple days.


I'm just glad Billy's continuing to move away from land.
Oh boy.. look at all the pretty colours.



Click to enlarge
Santa is now approaching Cyclone Billy... prepare for extreme turbulence..
Billy at 2:35 UTC.

Billy at 5:25 UTC.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Billy at 2:35 UTC.

definitely going to be a bumpy ride for Santa and the reindeer!
VORTFIX-Thank you,I will be checking in.Merry Christmas and a safe New Year.
Ok.. we have two feet of the white stuff now..it can stop anytime.

GW my butt :(
Looks like a D*mn Ice age up here.
They should be able to get a great final product out of either of those views. It seems quite unusual to have two such good passes at a TC within such a short period of time, and when it's strengthening, too.
Orca - 1 snowstorm doth not an ice age make. . . lol

At least u had Cancun . . .
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok.. we have two feet of the white stuff now..it can stop anytime.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Orca - 1 snowstorm doth not an ice age make. . . lol

At least u had Cancun . . .


Its been snowing since we got home... we don't do snow here.. rain.. yes.. snow.. no
What a year. Merry christmas to everyone.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its been snowing since we got home... we don't do snow here.. rain.. yes.. snow.. no
That is true. I hope it stops soon, though it seems like the jet is parked over Vancouver for a while :o( . . .
Recent jet stream analysis.

Quoting BahaHurican:
That is true. I hope it stops soon, though it seems like the jet is parked over Vancouver for a while :o( . . .


Oh well.. off to work soon.. have to go and shovel the d*mn driveway... again
Hey, I gotta head out also. I've the day off, but I still have masses to do around here. Yard work is still yard work. . .
Gm,and Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone.
Wow 120mph I think that's our first Major hurricane since Paloma is it common for them to have storms that strong so early?
...snow is of the Devil...
The furry whirlwind and I wish all of you a WUnderful holiday season - be it rain, wind, snow or any other form of the stuff that makes this planet so interesting. Talking about the weather is what makes all of you so interesting! Merry Christmas and Meow.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Orca since you are helping Santa with his navagation YOU are the designated person from WU to make sure everyone gets what they wanted also....I know you can handle this one last year end request....LOL...Merry Christmas my friend.
Tim
Santa i know your sending me my new Vet. Don't know how Santa will get it in my Garage but, i know Orca will figure it out.....ROFLMAO
For tonite during your parties....
crank up the computer for music and a link to track Santa at my Blog for the kids and big kids..lol......there are 47 songs that take about 3 hours of playing if anyone would like...
The Wife helped me alot to produce.
Merry Christmas everyone....
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-SIX
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
12:45 AM WDT December 25 2008
=====================================

At 12:00 am WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [949 hPa] located at 17.7S 118.3E or 295 kms north of Port Hedland and 370 kms north-northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy has intensified to the north of Port Hedland and is moving steadily westwards. Billy is expected to remain intense over the next 24 hours and should begin to take a more northwesterly track during today.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Pardoo and Mardie during today if Billy takes a more southwesterly track. Minimal rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Pardoo to Mardie

Remarks

Dvorak Intensity T5.5, Raw DT 6.5 (130 knots(1 min))
Merry Christmas everybody!

And I hope we ALL have a Happy New Year!
Sorry about the snow Orca -- truly it is the curse of the devil... Hell for me would be snow & cold......

My sandbox is quite beautiful -- there might be waves, but I'm too tired from work.,,,BRB Nope--no waves 1ft southy is NOT rideable -- no waves for Christmas -- Just right temps for a T-shirt, sweet breeze and a hot Sun... everything is sparkling
Now in Russia...

From Australia to Siberia in one day. That suit must have some air conditioning on it.
Fun little Google earth file for the kids....

Link
Quoting hydrus:
VORTFIX-I you would,please explain the severe weather situation for this weekend a little further,my mom lives in central Tennesee and is very ill with cancer and may need someone to be with her.


Mom...cancer...one days drive from most anywhere east of the continental divide...Christmas.

Might I be bold enough to suggest that someone should certainly be with her (assuming you/others are on the same continent)? Totally not meaning to offend here; you could call it advice. Who knows, you might regret not being there someday (trust me, from personal experience). OK, enough of that.

Merry Christmas, all.
Merry Christmas to all. Looking forward to another great year for WU!

I have truly enjoyed all the knowledgeable posts and had some good laughs on the 'fun' days.

Thanks to all!
Hello all.
Just repeating, for those that may have missed it--

Have a Very Happy and Joyful Christmas, and a most Wonderful New Year.

It has been a great experience for me, in this Community this year.
Thank you, to all the WUBA Members, all over, who make it Special.
Particular thanks to Dr. Jeff, who makes it all happen.

A Toast is in order...
Cheers !
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-SEVEN
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
3:50 AM WDT December 25 2008
=====================================

At 3:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [948 hPa] located at 17.6S 117.9E or 310 kms north northwest of Port Hedland and 365 kms north-northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 7 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system located well to the north of Port Hedland and is moving steadily on a west northwesterly track.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Port Hedland and Mardie during today only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track. Minimal rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Port Hedland to Mardie.

The Cyclone WARNING from Pardoo to Port Hedland has been cancelled.

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
====================================
12 HRS: 17.3S 116.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 16.8S 115.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 15.6S 112.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 16.1S 110.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Remarks:
At 18UTC Billy was located well to the north of Port Hedland moving steadily west northwest. Billy has intensified rapidly over the past 24 hours, with Dvorak estimates increasing by 2.0T in 24 hours. Raw DT numbers reached 6.5 on the 0930Z and 1030Z images based on a W surround with CMG/DG Eadj but more recently a time averaged DT number of 5.5 is attained using the eye pattern.

Billy is likely to be at peak intensity over the next 6 hours then increasing shear will affect the system thereafter and once the system moves west of 115E - on 26 December - the oceanic heat content becomes less favourable. The system is then expected to weaken rapidly given its small size.

Model guidance is consistent with a steady W/NW track over the next 72 hours under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south, with the system remaining well off the Pilbara coast.

While it is unlikely that Billy will take a track closer to the Pilbara coast, several ensemble members of two generally skilful NWP models indicate that a southwesterly or southerly motion is still possible, so cautionary community warnings are being maintained until the risk further diminshes.
Billy is still being a nuisance....
stormchaser2007, thanks for the link kid is loving it. thank you again Merry Christmas to All
Only a handful of you know this...but it seems an appropriate time to share it with all..

...so, if you think any good could come of it, please feel free to post it elsewhere as well...

In late Februaruy of this year I was diagnosed with Stage 2 melanoma...it was a black spot about an inch long and a half inch wide on my lower left eyelid...

The first surgery (to remove the cancer) was in March, the week before my 49th birthday...the second (to begin rebuilding the eyelid) was later the same month...the final surgery (to finish the eyelid work) was in late August..two and a half weeks before Ike hit...

so...

I spent a good portion of this year dealing with facing fifty...fearing death...anger with God...questioning my faith....wondering if I'd spent too much of my life building my financial pile and not enough serving others...generally pondering some pretty deep issues...

suffice it to say: much of this year was spent in physical, spiritual, and emotional agony...

the reaction of this community after Ike (described in the guest blog Dr. Masters was kind enough to let me write) paid it all off for me...

my anger toward God was resolved....clarity of priorities became obvious...my faith was restored...and strengthened...

and I have this community to thank for it all....

Merry Christmas everybody
Hey Sailor --Got Rum and warm skies..... the beach is gorgeous here ... sailboats got good wind too
Life & Ike really affected a great many people in a lot of different ways this year -- lots of new perspectives for many of us
:D
Little Bill is growing up ;D
162. surfmom 8:24 PM GMT on December 24, 2008

Billy is still being a nuisance....



yup winds should start to ease a little after tomorrow.. (cooler waters at least)

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-EIGHT
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
6:45 AM WDT December 25 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [948 hPa] located at 17.5S 117.5S or 335 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 365 kilometres north of Karratha 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system located well to the north of the Pilbara coast and is moving steadily on a west northwesterly track.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Port Hedland and Mardie during today only if Billy takes a more southwesterly track. Minimal rainfall is expected on the Pilbara coast unless Billy takes a more southwesterly track.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal communities from Port Hedland to Mardie.

---
no change in intensity or pressure
Merry Christmas all of you!
wow now Billy is a major tropical cyclone
Its 00.05 hier in Switzerland -> merry Christmas to all of you!
Being part of the WU-community has been a wunderfull eyperience. Although I lurk most of the time I still feel part of you all.

Presslord - good to hear you solved some important questions. Often it needs a hard experience to face these issues. I do hope the cancer is in control and you can start the new year with fresh hope. Wish you all the best.
Welcome to NORAD Tracks Santa. We hope you enjoyed this short video of Santa's 2007 journey.
To track him this year on the official NORAD Tracks Santa website, go to www.noradsanta.orgLink

To track him in Google Earth, go to www.noradsanta.org/en/track3d.html

Press, mail.

Here's our current:

Nassau, BS (Airport)
Updated: -41 sec ago
73 °F / 23 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 73 °F / 23 °C
Wind: 10 mph / 17 km/h / 4.6 m/s from the East
Pressure: 30.27 in / 1025 hPa (Steady)
Visibility: 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1500 ft / 457 m
Scattered Clouds 3500 ft / 1066 m
Mostly Cloudy 8000 ft / 2438 m
(Above Ground Level)


I got practically nothing done today, and I had PLANS!!!
176. GeneW
Merry Christmas Dr. Jeff and to your family.

Gene Phillip Winters
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIFTY-NINE
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BILLY
9:50 AM WDT December 25 2008
=====================================

At 9:00 am WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, Category Four [953 hPa] located at 17.5S 117.3E or 340 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland and 365 kilometres north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy is an intense system moving on a general westerly track well off the Pilbara coast. It is likely to continue on a westerly to northwesterly track and GALES are no longer expected on the Pilbara coast.

  • No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves back towards the coast.

  • Please refer to Information Bulletin or Forecast Track Map for further details.

    ---
    no more land warnings ^_^
  • 177 Hades --- ahhh no land warnings - Peace on Earth

    Nite all
    Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
    ==================================
    12 HRS: 17.4S 116.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
    24 HRS: 16.7S 114.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
    48 HRS: 16.0S 112.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
    72 HRS: 16.7S 110.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

    REMARKS:
    Billy was located by radar and satellite imagery well to the north of Karratha
    moving steadilyto the west. The period intensification ceased overnight with the eye becoming partially obscured by IR imagery, although microwave shows a clear eye still
    evident.

    Dvorak DT/FT=5.0 based on eye pattern White surround 6.0 less 1.0 eye adjustment W/CMG. CI held at 5.5. estimates increasing by 2.0T in 24 hours.

    Billy is likely to continue a westerly then northwesterly track well off the Pilbara coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. A change to a more southerly track is not expected and the threat of a coastal impact has passed.

    A slow to moderate weakening is expected particularly when the system moves over
    lower sea surface temperatures west of 115E on 26 December. Although it is possible that the system may remain at cyclone intensity for some days over open waters.
    night surfermom
    I thought a westward track with Billy would be the best of all worlds - some excitement here for us, NO excitement there for people on the Pilbara coast. . . LOL
    Wow, Billy is a major cyclone?! What else did I miss? Anyway here in S. Ontario there's about 40 cm (15 in) of snow on the ground, but it's wet snow because of the rain and above-freezing temperatures, but anyway I built my snowball for the base of my snowman about 80 cubic feet today.
    Merry christmas everyone...I'm not even going to kvetch tonight. My youngest is enjoying the holiday too much...one teaches you love, another teaches you patience. ;)

    Cheers and happy holidays to all.

    It's also windy here right now. Winds are gusting up to 75 km/h (45 mph), from what I estimate.
    I just wanted to tell everyone on WU to have a Very Merry Christmas. I haven't been around cause computer crashed but i am back. I have really missed everyone. And Presslord God Bless you. SC2007 I see your here to,and surfmom. God Bless everyone on WU this is a very big family on here.
    Sheri
    Merry Christmas to all. And to all a very boring (weather wise) 2009.
    Quoting catastropheadjuster:
    I just wanted to tell everyone on WU to have a Very Merry Christmas. I haven't been around cause computer crashed but i am back. I have really missed everyone. And Presslord God Bless you. SC2007 I see your here to,and surfmom. God Bless everyone on WU this is a very big family on here.
    Sheri
    Sher, good to see u have computer access again. Compliments of the season to you.
    Merry Christmas to everyone, thanks for a great year, and I look forward to next year.

    This community is like your neighborhood pub in cyber space!
    Merry Christmas To Everyone!!
    190. JLPR
    Merry Christmas!!

    and Santa is in Mexico!! xD

    Christian Glitter by www.christianglitter.com



    Merry Christmas DrM and all fellow WU members..
    Merry
    Christmas!
    {{Dr.Master's and Family}}!




    Rays,Wobbie and Boys
    Merry Christmas Dr. Masters!


    Photobucket

    The tribe still sleeps - I'm getting ready for my Christmas 15 miler run -- happy it's 69 degrees in SWFL -- perfect for running and no need for gloves, hats or anything long sleeved.

    SWFL SURFERS: Well we just didn't get any.
    Almost always had surf for the Holidays..... not so this year. 2006 - we had groundswell, 2007 we had a cold front -- this year...a flatspell. Gas is cheap -- so if you can run away -- go to where the sunrises.
    Merry Christmas to all.Santa brought alittle rain shower with him. All is very welcome. Enjoy the holiday. Zephyrhills FL. John
    happy holiday weather geeks
    Merry Christmas to all in the WeatherUnderground family, especially Doctor Masters and his family, but also including all our techies. Special Christmas greetings also go out to all my Caribbean buddies - hope u are getting sunshine today! Feliz Navidad y prospero Año Nuevo a todos!


    HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL.
    IT IS A FANTASTIC DAY.
    Quoting pottery:
    HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL.
    IT IS A FANTASTIC DAY.


    Merry Christmas to you :)
    It is a fantastic day.. its not snowing, and it appears we are going back to our normal temperatures.. that also has its bad points.. two feet of snow melting in about three days with the help of rain.... can you say flooding :(

    Ahhh the winter season and Holidays.
    Merry Christmas - its warm and muggy here in Miami - but it does have the decency to have a little cloud cover.

    May everyone have a great day, filled with family, friends, and angels.

    Hey Orca - hope you don't live down hill!
    Here's a link for cyclone Billy Link
    Merry Christmas and thank you to all on this blog. I mostly lurk but today wanted to tell you all how much I appreciate not only the information but the generosity and kindness of this community. And Presslord, you brought tears to my eyes with your post last night. Best wishes to all of you for a happy holiday and a wonderful new year.
    Quoting BahaHurican:
    Sher, good to see u have computer access again. Compliments of the season to you.


    Baha: Thanks and hope you have a wonderful day. It's rainy here in Lower Alabama, but that's ok it's not bad. Cooking a major feast.
    sheri
    It's been mostly overcast here, but at least it's not raining anymore .. . lol

    Hope the meal turned out great.