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The 1969 Hurricane Camille Hurricane Party: It Never Happened

By: Jeff Masters 1:08 PM GMT on March 04, 2015

On the night of August 17, 1969, Hurricane Camille roared towards the Mississippi coast with sustained winds of an incredible 175 mph. Residents all along the coast fled the wrath of this mighty Category 5 hurricane, but a few unfortunate holdouts chose to ride the storm out rather than evacuate. Legend has it that many of the 23 residents of the infamous Richelieu Manor Apartments in Pass Christian who chose to stay held a hurricane party, in defiance of the hurricane's might (and common sense!) An ABC TV made for TV movie called Hurricane, starring Frank Sutton (of Gomer Pyle USMC fame), Larry Hagman (of Dallas fame), Martin Milner, and Michael Learned, was loosely based on the supposed hurricane party. Legendary TV anchorman Walter Cronkite perpetuated the hurricane party story during one of his broadcasts after the hurricane. As the camera panned over the cement slab littered with debris that marked the former location of the Richelieu Apartments, Cronkite narrated:

"This is the site of the Richelieu Apartments in Pass Christian, Mississippi. This is the place where 23 people laughed in the face of death. And where 23 people died."



Figure 1. The Richelieu Manor Apartments in Pass Christian, Mississippi before Hurricane Camille (top) and after (bottom.) Image credit: NOAA photo library.

Camille pushed its record 24.7-foot storm surge through Pass Christian, completely leveling the Richelieu Apartments. The 1989 PBS NOVA show, Hurricane, interviewed Mary Ann Gerlach, who claimed to be the lone survivor of the ill-fated hurricane party. She provided lurid details of the booze and pills at the party, after which she and her sixth husband fell asleep in their second-floor apartment. When Camille's storm surge smashed through, the building disintegrated, and she landed in the chaotic sea. Gerlach survived by clinging to pieces of floating debris and furniture. Gerlach, however, was not exactly a reliable witness. In 1982, when on trial for murdering her 11th husband, Gerlach's lawyer used an insanity defense, claiming her Camille experience and the resulting drug and alcohol abuse caused her to kill. She was found guilty, sentenced to life in prison, and paroled in 1992.


Figure 2. A boat driven inland by Hurricane Camille's record storm surge in Mississippi. Image credit: NOAA photo library.

According to an article published in 2000 by Mississippi Sun Herald reporter Kat Bergeron (kindly forwarded to me by Dr. Patrick Fitzpatrick, Mississippi State University professor and author of Hurricanes: A Reference Handbook), watching Cronkite's broadcast was Josephine Duckworth, whose 24-year-old son had ridden out the storm in the Richelieu Apartments. Her husband, Hubert Duckworth, certain that their son had been killed, headed down to Pass Christian the next day to claim their son's body. Hubert Duckworth encountered Mike Gannon, who had also ridden out the storm in the Richelieu Apartments.

"Where can I find my son's body?" the father asked.
"Why, Ben Duckworth isn't dead," Gannon told him. "I've seen him, and he's all right."

Indeed, father was reunited with son. And, according to survivor Ben Duckworth, only 8 out of the 23 residents of the Richelieu Apartments died in the storm, and the hurricane party never happened. Duckworth recounted,

"We were exhausted from boarding up windows and helping the police move cars. We were too tired to party. I cannot tell you why the story persists, or why people didn't put two and two together. I guess the hurricane party makes a good story." While he was boarding up and helping others prepare for the storm, a traveling salesman that some residents knew stopped by the complex. "Let's get some beer and have a hurricane party," the salesman said. "We were too exhausted. and when he couldn't find any takers, he got in his car and headed toward New Orleans," Duckworth remembered. "That probably saved his life, but I've wondered if that man isn't the origin of the legend. Maybe someone heard him and thought the party really happened."

Former Wunderblogger Margie Kieper, now working on her Ph.D. in hurricane science at Florida International University, has researched the party myth, and had this to add:

"The building was a designated civil defense shelter. One of the survivors interpreted that to mean he thought it was built with steel beams, but it was stick built. The sheriff did come by several times and ask them to evacuate, but the landlord convinced them it would be safe to stay. The young guys had promised to stay and look after some of the older people. They spent the day helping the landlord get the property ready, like boarding all the first floor windows with sheets of plywood (for a building that size you can imagine how much work that was!) After that and moving furniture upstairs to the second and third floor vacant apartments, they were all pretty exhausted. They had also helped ferry the residents back and forth to get all their cars parked in a different location where they believed the cars would be safe from surge. There were older people in the apartments including at least one in a wheelchair. The younger men tried to look after the older people. They were simply sheltering the storm and made a bad choice. Eight people in the building died and six lived. The building held a lot more than 23 residents."

More details on the experiences of the Richelieu Apartments survivors can be found at the passchristian.net website.

Our next post will be on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. VR46L
Quoting 495. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Congratulations Scott on your el nino predictions. I know this el nino is weak, but since it is a very very weak one, wil it have a very very weak effect on this year's hurricane season. Will we probably at least get an average season? If so,what are some analog years, and your predictions.




(well that is what Floridians are thinking )
Quoting 493. yoboi:



Was that guy Dr. Russ Schnell??????

Dr Russ Schnell, a scientist doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory, 11,000 feet up on Hawaii. "It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they're going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we'll go into a permanent El Nino."

"So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we'll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you'll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years," he said.

Link


Again for the 28th time, we contacted Dr. Schnell for clarification on his statements for you Yoboi. Remember? And you continue to post the same dishonest nonsense repeatedly. Full on troll, and nothing more. Deny, deny, deny.
BoreNino hath come!
Quoting 497. Storms306:

Still a steady rain falling here. The line is still stuck at the mountains for now it appears.
Since most businesses,schools and work places are closed I got to sleep in today.The ice pellets woke me up this morning.They were hitting the window hard.

EDIT:Took a look out the window two inches and the fat flakes are coming down hard and heavy now!
(well that is what Floridians are thinking )


may there wishes be granted
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 03 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID ATLANTIC WINTER
STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC...

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
EXTREME EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 900 AM EST...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES...WAS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN EXTENDED SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR EASTERN U.S. INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND TO ALL SNOW WITHIN THIS SWATH AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME AREAS IN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WERE REPORTING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.


THE COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AT LOWER LEVELS ARE ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE TO FALL WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE SNOW COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OF OVER 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST ALONG A BAND FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ADDITIONAL ICE IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM INTERIOR LOUISIANA ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST...THROUGH MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. UP TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 400 PM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.


Quoting 482. StormTrackerScott:



Will need to watch this years hurricane season I'm afraid although less active some of these home growns could cause problems.
The worlds patterns are freakish , so who really knows what will happen with this years hurricane season. If we had a strong Nino event and an extremely active hurricane season , i wouldnt be surprised. I do know neutral and Modoki years have been rough on Florida..La Nina years , they seem to recurve more , so even when busy , they go away from the U.S.
Quoting 486. MaxWeather:

2012?
Actually a hurricane with sustained winds of 200-210 mph in the Gulf of Mexico with hurricane force winds covering the entire gulf coast and much of the south and southeast within 100 miles of the coast with tropical storm force winds extending out to Bermuda up to the Mid-Atlantic coast and all of the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valley into the southern half of the Great Plains. Based on this analysis the minimum surface pressure had to be approaching if not going BELOW 800 mb with the center of the super-cane moving north at about 10 mph...


But good thing it was just a dream lol
Quoting 442. StormTrackerScott:

El-Nino cocktails anyone?

Picture of El Nino. The El Nino drink is made from Havana Club Silver Dry



Welcome to the bar then, Scott. Let's have this drink :-)
Quoting 504. washingtonian115:

Since most businesses,schools and work places are closed I got to sleep in today.The ice pellets woke me up this morning.They were hitting the window hard.

EDIT:Took a look out the window two inches and the fat flakes are coming down hard and heavy now!
Nice!! Your totals should jump dramatically now if it keeps up! Everything around here is open, however schools are letting out at 1130.
I called it, too. After the last one ended, I told a guy I met at some bar that there'd be another one someday, and--voila!--here it is.

Forecasting is fun... ;-)




i was thinking....of the kid in baseball...who strikes out time after time....game after game...and then finally....gets a hit and everyone stands up and cheers........we need to stand up and cheer
Quoting 508. hydrus:

The worlds patterns are freakish , so who really knows what will happen with this years hurricane season. If we had a strong Nino event and an extremely active hurricane season , i wouldnt be surprised. I do know neutral and Modoki years have been rough on Florida..La Nina years , they seem to recurve more , so even when busy , they go away from the U.S.
CWG had actually mentioned in a post made back in September that if the el nino were to take place it seems to be more west than your traditional el nino so time will tell.
The squeeze play with the two high pressure areas, the cold one over central Conus and the warm one over the Atlantic with the well defined streaming boundry area over Conus:

Quoting 508. hydrus:

The worlds patterns are freakish , so who really knows what will happen with this years hurricane season. If we had a strong Nino event and an extremely active hurricane season , i wouldnt be surprised. I do know neutral and Modoki years have been rough on Florida..La Nina years , they seem to recurve more , so even when busy , they go away from the U.S. 1992 was an analog year with a strong El Nino . Tell that to the people in south Dade county Florida with Andrew.
NWS just increased the snow total forecast for Washington D.C.

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. North wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Quoting 407. StormTrackerScott:

Earliest declaration since 1997 as we didn't officially have all 5 tri monthly's met but it is easy to see that Nino 3.4 values will only increase going forward.


YES! finally we have an official El nino. I hope this helps the 2016 hurricane season.
518. bwi
Well my forecast for mostly rain in DC today was certainly a flop. We're getting a nice moderate snowfall, with slushy accumulation on streets. Usually, betting on warmer than expected temps is a good bet for us, but not every time. Sort of like predicting the next El Nino...
Measured 2 in. out so far.
Quoting Gearsts:
YES! finally we have an official El nino. I hope this helps the 2016 hurricane season.



what happen too 2015
Quoting 504. washingtonian115:

Took a look out the window two inches and the fat flakes are coming down hard and heavy now!


Ours is a fine, powdery snow. Sticking to all surfaces, including naked tree branches (but only the PG-13 parts) and power lines.
Over 7.2" will make the top ten March snowfalls for D.C.
12.0" is the record for a single March snowfall.

At this time, these are extremely weak El Niño conditions, during a time of year when the influence of El Niño on weather patterns in North America or other locations outside of the Tropics is weakening. For example, historical precipitation patterns associated with El Niño show that only about 3 of the past 10 El Niño years exhibited above-average rainfall in California during March-April-May (map pair below). Another way of looking at the historical relationships shows that ENSO has very little correlation to precipitation over North America during the spring.
Quoting 491. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yes, Max like Cody said, the other day the GFS is smoking that good stuff.

Um I don't know about that good stuff you mentioned... Im not in the same line lol
525. VR46L
Quoting 506. ricderr:

(well that is what Floridians are thinking )


may there wishes be granted



Naughty, Naughty !!!!!!!!
Over 300 vehicles stranded since last night on I-24 in KY. Natl Guard rescuing.
Lyon County pic courtesy



Via Twitter
527. VR46L
Quoting 524. MaxWeather:


Um I don't know about that good stuff you mentioned... Im not in the same line lol


Max I haven't been around much , are you doing the Hurricane prediction blog again ?
Quoting 512. ricderr:

I called it, too. After the last one ended, I told a guy I met at some bar that there'd be another one someday, and--voila!--here it is.

Forecasting is fun... ;-)




i was thinking....of the kid in baseball...who strikes out time after time....game after game...and then finally....gets a hit and everyone stands up and cheers........we need to stand up and cheer

Your post made me think of this commercial (PSA?)...one of my all-time faves:

Link

If there's one thing STS has in abundance, it's optimism.
Quoting 521. LongIslandBeaches:



Ours is a fine, powdery snow. Sticking to all surfaces, including naked tree branches (but only the PG-13 parts) and power lines.
lol.Ours is wet and heavy.So caution will be needed when shoveling.
Quoting 520. Tazmanian:




what happen too 2015
Band of very heavy snow moving over the area right now. Hi-resolutions models showed a heavy band training over the area for sometime.
Quoting 527. VR46L:



Max I haven't been around much , are you doing the Hurricane prediction blog again ?

Indeed Liz I am...
18 on my list so far
Hey scott, you finally have your el nino. Happy now?

Link
Quoting 501. VR46L:





(well that is what Floridians are thinking )
lol
As of 9:56 AM ---->

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI.
SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS...A GENERAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
STILL EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS.
WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO
5 INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.
Quoting 512. ricderr:

I called it, too. After the last one ended, I told a guy I met at some bar that there'd be another one someday, and--voila!--here it is.

Forecasting is fun... ;-)




i was thinking....of the kid in baseball...who strikes out time after time....game after game...and then finally....gets a hit and everyone stands up and cheers........we need to stand up and cheer


can anyone here point to any time in the past year when the expectation of an El Nino was even remotely unreasonable? I honestly don't understand the flack.
Hahaha...I was just about to go out in the sleet covered roads and go to TTU or die trying but they went from "we are opening at 11am" to "stay home, stupid" at the last minute. Had my car warmed up and just about ready to go...needless to say, I'm glad :)
Let's doooooooo this!
LWX Has Increased Expected Totals to 8-10in Widespread



EDIT: Washi beat me to it, but i'm going to leave my post up for emphasis.
I haven't been able to enter tropicaltidbits the last 2 days. HELP!
Quoting Drakoen:
LWX Has Increased Expected Totals to 8-10in Widespread4



NWS has bumped up the totals twice since last night.
As usual, they don't know how much snow will fall until it actually happens.

Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Hey scott, you finally have your el nino. Happy now?

Link


Did you not scroll down the page and see the 100+ El-Nino comments?
Scott hasn't been this happy since he got his first bike at Christmas.
Quoting 538. washingtonian115:

Let's doooooooo this!


A treat for you
:)

Measured 2 5/8", location zip code 20905, time 11:30
Quoting 509. Tornado6042008X:

Actually a hurricane with sustained winds of 200-210 mph in the Gulf of Mexico with hurricane force winds covering the entire gulf coast and much of the south and southeast within 100 miles of the coast with tropical storm force winds extending out to Bermuda up to the Mid-Atlantic coast and all of the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valley into the southern half of the Great Plains. Based on this analysis the minimum surface pressure had to be approaching if not going BELOW 800 mb with the center of the super-cane moving north at about 10 mph...


But good thing it was just a dream lol

Ok I see...

Something like 215 MPH Typhoon Nancy. Though it's not clear whether this typhoon reached such levels... with Tip's size. But in the GOM

I see your point though
Quoting 542. Sfloridacat5:



Did you not scroll down the page and see the 100+ El-Nino comments?
Scott hasn't been this happy since he got his first bike at Christmas.


I find such a discussion far more engaging than what most people post here, which is basically a never-ending stream of satellite and Doppler images of storms.
Plane down in La Guardia... NYC

can anyone here point to any time in the past year when the expectation of an El Nino was even remotely unreasonable? I honestly don't understand the flack.

the simple answer to your question is no....however...your question is not based on reality.....the flack is due to some blog observers...that told us these were certainties not expectations...i think that is a huge difference.....

the problem is there are some bloggers...who as recently as two weeks ago.....were claiming as a certainty this would be a summer event...and then changed to a thirty day nowcast...they're praised....while last year....a few....ncstorm....luvtogolf come to mind...who even told me i was wrong...that if it were to happen...would not be declared until 2015....why aren't we singing their praises...
Quoting 547. CuriousAboutClimate:



I find such a discussion far more engaging than what most people post here, which is basically a never-ending stream of satellite and Doppler images of storms.


I'm the opposite. The "never-ending stream" presents real time and important information and the discussion that goes along with them constantly improves my learning and understanding about weather.

The back and forth El Nino "debate" reminds me of an elementary school lunch room, and I prefer to skim those posts.

But ah, to each his/her own, yes? Enjoy your chest pumping and finger wagging.
This is the area of disturbed weather that global model guidance is blowing up into an extraordinarily strong cyclone next week. The 6z GFS bottomed the system out somewhere in the neighborhood of 870mb, while the 0z ECMWF depicted a peak of 919mb.

Quoting 550. LongIslandBeaches:



Enjoy your chest pumping and finger wagging.


comment does not make sense.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1114 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015


DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-VAZ038-039-050>055-5 02- 060015-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-150306T0200Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-CALVERT-
GREENE-MADISON-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
1114 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. ANY SLEET EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 1 PM.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE THROUGH 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL REMAIN SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES...
MAKING TRAVELING DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
Quoting Neapolitan:
I called it, too. After the last one ended, I told a guy I met at some bar that there'd be another one someday, and--voila!--here it is.

Forecasting is fun... ;-)


I want to mark this date and time of my prediction: El Nino will end.

I'm congratulating myself already.

Now it's time to go practice on the putting green.
NWS just raised forecasted totals for NYC/Long Island from 4-8 in to 6-8.
Quoting CuriousAboutClimate:


I find such a discussion far more engaging than what most people post here, which is basically a never-ending stream of satellite and Doppler images of storms.


The comment had a link showing that El-Nino had been declared and asked if Scott was happy.

By scrolling down the page and seeing the dozens of posts by Scott it is very clear he is excited like a boy at Christmas.

You misunderstood my comment. No where did I imply or say that I didn't enjoy his excitement or the El-Nino comments.
Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather · 14m 14 minutes ago
Heavy snow band over DC and immediate N & W suburbs. 1-1.5"/hour rates.
Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is the area of disturbed weather that global model guidance is blowing up into an extraordinarily strong cyclone next week. The 6z GFS bottomed the system out somewhere in the neighborhood of 870mb, while the 0z ECMWF depicted a peak of 919mb.





If it does form, the next name on the South Pacific list is Pam.
Quoting 542. Sfloridacat5:



Did you not scroll down the page and see the 100+ El-Nino comments?
Scott hasn't been this happy since he got his first bike at Christmas.



This el nino is 3 years in the making so i figured he is.
DISCUSSION...HEAVY SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS STRONGER
850-700 MB BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SAGS SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL. UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST WV...ACROSS NRN VA INTO
FAR SRN NJ BETWEEN 18-21Z. THIS INCLUDES THE WASHINGTON D.C. AND
BALTIMORE METRO AREAS. WHILE RATES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SE PA INTO
CENTRAL NJ SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER ABOUT 20Z...HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT.
Quoting 560. washingtonian115:

DISCUSSION...HEAVY SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS STRONGER
850-700 MB BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SAGS SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL. UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST WV...ACROSS NRN VA INTO
FAR SRN NJ BETWEEN 18-21Z. THIS INCLUDES THE WASHINGTON D.C. AND
BALTIMORE METRO AREAS. WHILE RATES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SE PA INTO
CENTRAL NJ SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER ABOUT 20Z...HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT.


Quoting MaxWeather:
Plane down in La Guardia... NYC

MD-88, not an MD-80 as the media is reporting. It looks like it left runway 13 and went left, hitting a berm. The nose gear is obviously gone and the nose is through a fence. Jamaica Bay is on the other side of the fence so it was a lucky stop. The runway looked like it had been plowed but I'm sure there was ice still left. Some woman on the plane was actually on Twitter saying her plane had crashed and "Help!". I'm sure the big yellow trucks were monitoring Twitter and responded immediately. There's no way they would have known there was an accident without her timely twit.

Geez....
Quoting 545. AreadersinceWilma:


Measured 2 5/8", location zip code 20905, time 11:30



As advertised, accumulation has really picked up. Now up to 3 1/8" at noon. That's a 1/2" in half an hour.
Quoting 560. washingtonian115:

DISCUSSION...HEAVY SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS STRONGER
850-700 MB BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SAGS SOUTHWARD...SO WILL THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL. UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS BAND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST WV...ACROSS NRN VA INTO
FAR SRN NJ BETWEEN 18-21Z. THIS INCLUDES THE WASHINGTON D.C. AND
BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
WHILE RATES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SE PA INTO
CENTRAL NJ SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AFTER ABOUT 20Z...HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH ABOUT 00Z TONIGHT.


Huzzah! Have fun with that washi. :D
I'm surprised it's taken so long for the snow to stick to a lot of the streets in the city.

The recent warmer weather must have warmed up the streets so it's taking a little longer to get the snow to fully stick to them.

Link
Or is it due to the streets being pre-treated?
I don't really mind the El Nino. We had one of the best summer pop-up thunderstorm seasons ever in 2009, as well as tropical action in the Gulf like Claudette and Ida.
12z GFS going hypercane mode with the SW Pacific AOI.

This is one heck a strong westerly wind burst pushing east. I think its safe to say Nino 3.4 over to nino 1&2 is in for some serious spikes upward the next several weeks.

The cold front has moved through most of SE Alabama. Wind shifted to the NE and we had about a half hour period of steady 15 mph with a high gust of 24. About 10 minutes of heavy rain and that was it, so only 0.18". Too bad it's not colder or the temperature drop would have qualified as a cold wave. The reading at 9:00 was 78 and 55 at 10:00. 23 degrees is still a pretty respectable drop. It's down to 51 now.
Quoting 564. LongIslandBeaches:



Huzzah! Have fun with that washi. :D
I will be out shoveling tomorrow.And then will have tons of advil on me afterward.
This is an off weather topic rant, but why can't drivers let snow plows do their jobs? I'm sitting here in my office watching as cars cut in and out of the trucks as they are trying to move snow off the roads and just can't figure it out. It's a snow day, calm down, drive slow, let the group of 3-4 snow plows move the snow off the road and onto the shoulders.
Many disappointed snow lovers down here in southern MD. No snow has yet been observed and it looks like an extended dry slot is likely. Please post pictures of the situation further north if able.
573. jpsb


Quoting 570. washingtonian115:

I will be out shoveling tomorrow.And then will have tons of advil on me afterward.

My kids do this job.

So far I'm underwhelmed with the volume of snow we've gotten. Expecting one more surge of heavier snow early PM before it's over. I have about 2" or so in College Park. Perhaps 3" more. Current rate at 12:21 is moderate, 2cm/hour. Roads are slushy but very slippery.
Quoting 518. bwi:

Well my forecast for mostly rain in DC today was certainly a flop. We're getting a nice moderate snowfall, with slushy accumulation on streets. Usually, betting on warmer than expected temps is a good bet for us, but not every time. Sort of like predicting the next El Nino...


We actually are warmer than expected. Still hanging near freezing at noon. I was expecting more arctic air by now.
Quoting 300. Astrometeor:



Integral calculus with multiple negatives stinks, if I make a mistake, it's because I forgot a negative somewhere....

@Kori, could you have found Cody's error?


You need to make an even number of sign errors.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 2h 2 hours ago

A powerful WWB in the central/western Pacific could yield twin tropical cyclones near 165-170e during the next week.
Quoting 571. 1Zach1:

This is an off weather topic rant, but why can't drivers let snow plows do their jobs? I'm sitting here in my office watching as cars cut in and out of the trucks as they are trying to move snow off the roads and just can't figure it out. It's a snow day, calm down, drive slow, let the group of 3-4 snow plows move the snow off the road and onto the shoulders.
One word...Stupidity.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


We actually are warmer than expected. Still hanging near freezing at noon. I was expecting more arctic air by now.
There must be some more cold air upstream. My temperature has stabilized at 51 but Montgomery is at 43, so this same kind of one two punch might be what you'll see. I'm really disappointed in the rainfall. WPC had me in the 1.50" area and I was sure hoping for more than 0.18".
581. txjac
Quoting 570. washingtonian115:

I will be out shoveling tomorrow.And then will have tons of advil on me afterward.


Washi, you're gonna have to tell me how to get the advil to work when they are on you instead of in you?

The wind here was really strong, woke me up at 2:15 am. It sounded like someone threw pebbles at my windows the rain was hitting so hard. Made me smile, then I rolled over and cuddled up with the doggies. It's about 35F right now and supposed to go down to about 29F tonight. I should have stayed up and saw if George answered me about the plants ...I didnt take them in. They looked sad this morning when I went to walk the dogs. Brought them in ..hopefully they perk up
I know that you all are focused on the snowstorm but...

Quoting 302. LAbonbon:


That's an error we ALL have made at some point...


My most noxious error train occurred in high school Analytic Geometry when working with conic sections. Squares of integral numbers are nice in these calculations and I can't count the number of times my brain lied to me and said 9+25 is 36.. there, nice, easily worked.. WRONG!!
Quoting 567. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS going hypercane mode with the SW Pacific AOI.


I don't know why but i can't see anything from tropicaltidbits.
585. jpsb
Quoting 494. CuriousAboutClimate:



cryosphere today is area, not extent.


Yes, Cryosphere today is area, and area actually tells you how much sea ice is floating around, extent does not. Which is why Cryosphere Today is a better source.

from National Snow and Ice Data Center

A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated.
Quoting AreadersinceWilma:

Measured 2 5/8", location zip code 20905, time 11:30
It would make things a lot easier if you just said you were in the Silver Springs MD area instead of each of us having to Google your zip code.
Quoting Gearsts:
I don't know why but i can't see anything from tropicaltidbits.
Levi's site works fine for me. What kind of error are you seeing?
Quoting 587. sar2401:

Levi's site works fine for me. What kind of error are you seeing?
This webpage is not available
Quoting 461. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah Joe from Weatherbell mentioned this yesterday. +PDO although could yeld less storms but years with +PDO's also caused devastating impacts from hurricane strikes on the US. I always thought other way around. Which is likely why the La-Nina years although had more storms but very little impacts to the US.
Scott, please tell me where JB said this as I subscribe to his site and I have not seen or read anything pertaining to the Nino state.
Quoting 589. NativeSun:

Scott, please tell me where JB said this as I subscribe to his site and I have not seen or read anything pertaining to the Nino state.


Not JB the other Joe that is on there.
Quoting 569. sar2401:

The cold front has moved through most of SE Alabama. Wind shifted to the NE and we had about a half hour period of steady 15 mph with a high gust of 24. About 10 minutes of heavy rain and that was it, so only 0.18". Too bad it's not colder or the temperature drop would have qualified as a cold wave. The reading at 9:00 was 78 and 55 at 10:00. 23 degrees is still a pretty respectable drop. It's down to 51 now.


Down In Baldwin County it has been raining off and on since midnight, but I don't think we got anymore then .25". The temperature has dropped from 75 at 7AM to 45 and has been holding steady since 10AM. So it has dropped about 30" degrees in 30 hours. Quite exciting don't you think?
Quoting 530. Gearsts:


I doubt it will look like that come summer.

MattRogers
12:47 PM EST
I've never been a fan of how they name an El Niño (wait three months on data). We've had a weak El Niño intensity since the start of the winter, but they wait three months to officially name it.
Quoting 580. sar2401:

There must be some more cold air upstream. My temperature has stabilized at 51 but Montgomery is at 43, so this same kind of one two punch might be what you'll see. I'm really disappointed in the rainfall. WPC had me in the 1.50" area and I was sure hoping for more than 0.18".

I think you're going to continue to be disappointed...

Quoting 592. NativeSun:

I doubt it will look like that come summer.
I hope not
Quoting 585. jpsb:



Yes, Cryosphere today is area, and area actually tells you how much sea ice is floating around, extent does not. Which is why Cryosphere Today is a better source.

from National Snow and Ice Data Center

A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated.


Better? They are different measurements, they measure different things, both are useful. Extent measures the area with at least 15% ice coverage while area is a more direct measurement of total ice.

Area is still really low.



By any metric this years Arctic Sea Ice is in bad shape going into the melt season. Why continue to pretend it's not?
Quoting Gearsts:
This webpage is not available
First thing to do is clear your cache. Do you know how to do that? If not, let me know, along with the version of Windows you're using. If it's a Mac, I really can't help you.
Gearsts,see if this link works.

Link
Scott, please tell me where JB said this as I subscribe to his site and I have not seen or read anything pertaining to the Nino state.


hey scott.....another bit of help please....yesterday at the doctors office...i read your post that the melbourne nws had stated that nearby you stanford....had received over 61" of rain in the last 6 months...could you provide a link please....as i couldn't find it on their site...and from rainfall totals...i gather they received half of that amount......tia
Quoting 590. StormTrackerScott:



Not JB the other Joe that is on there.
Ok, so it's on Joe D'Aelos blog, Thanks.
Quoting 581. txjac:



Washi, you're gonna have to tell me how to get the advil to work when they are on you instead of in you?

The wind here was really strong, woke me up at 2:15 am. It sounded like someone threw pebbles at my windows the rain was hitting so hard. Made me smile, then I rolled over and cuddled up with the doggies. It's about 35F right now and supposed to go down to about 29F tonight. I should have stayed up and saw if George answered me about the plants ...I didnt take them in. They looked sad this morning when I went to walk the dogs. Brought them in ..hopefully they perk up
What I meant by that was I'm going to be carrying tons of pills on me because after I shovel tomorrow 1-2 pills will not be enough.We're suppose to go down to 9 degrees and I was awoken by hard ice pellets this morning.I have the stew cooking and city officials are wanted people to stay off the roads.
Quoting Naga5000:


Better? They are different measurements, they measure different things, both are useful. Extent measures the area with at least 15% ice coverage while area is a more direct measurement of total ice.

Area is still really low.



By any metric this years Arctic Sea Ice is in bad shape going into the melt season. Why continue to pretend it's not?
I certainly agree the Arctic ice is in bad shape. In looking at that graph, I have two questions. Why is it using 1971-2006 as the base line average? We have the data right up until today, but at least going out to 2014 seems reasonable. The second question is why +/- 1 STD when all the other graphs of Arctic sea ice use a +/- 2 STD?
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


We actually are warmer than expected. Still hanging near freezing at noon. I was expecting more arctic air by now.


Yeah, it's been snowing since early this morning and the roads are still mostly just wet in the city.
Quoting 586. sar2401:

It would make things a lot easier if you just said you were in the Silver Springs MD area instead of each of us having to Google your zip code.


You are absolutely correct. A case of overthinking it and failure to see the forest for the trees.
605. yoboi
Quoting 596. Naga5000:



Better? They are different measurements, they measure different things, both are useful. Extent measures the area with at least 15% ice coverage while area is a more direct measurement of total ice.

Area is still really low.



By any metric this years Arctic Sea Ice is in bad shape going into the melt season. Why continue to pretend it's not?



With heat you are always using global......But when discussing ice you use regional....Bias???
Since it is incredible difficult for some people to understand Antarctic Sea Ice despite the repeated links and explanations, maybe a graphic will help....but I doubt it.

Quoting 598. Tropicsweatherpr:

Gearsts,see if this link works.

Link
Nope.
Quoting 605. yoboi:




With heat you are always using global......But when discussing ice you use regional....Bias???


Bias?

"Claire Parkinson of NASA recently presented the global average (Arctic plus Antarctic) trend in sea ice extent for the period 1979 to 2013. Overall, global sea ice has declined, despite the positive trend in Antarctic extent. The annual average trend is -35,000 square kilometers (-13,500 square miles) per year, or about -1.5% per decade. "

Please go read a book.
NWS lowered the snow totals from 5-9 back to 4-8 on the official forecast for the city (central D.C.).

This Afternoon Snow. High near 33. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Quoting LAbonbon:

I think you're going to continue to be disappointed...

Drat! I was really hoping this front was going to do something since the soundings showed as high as 2" QPF. There's a little moisture that still north of Birmingham but it's moving NE, so that means it will dry out before it gets here, if it gets here at all. It's still overcast with NNW winds of 10 mph but now the temperature has risen to 55 from 51, and that has happened in the last hour. It doesn't seem like the CAA that was being advertised early this morning.
Quoting 602. sar2401:

I certainly agree the Arctic ice is in bad shape. In looking at that graph, I have two questions. Why is it using 1971-2006 as the base line average? We have the data right up until today, but at least going out to 2014 seems reasonable. The second question is why /- 1 STD when all the other graphs of Arctic sea ice use a /- 2 STD?


I would ask the Norwegians at Arctic-Roos, it's actually a 1979-2006 baseline. Tis a silly place.

I like their graphs for ease of posting, but the baseline wouldn't really change the position of the years as long as they were all using the same baseline. As for the Standard Deviation, I don't know.
CWG
1:07 PM EST [Edited]
Let us all relish in the event that will forever find us forgetting how rare this is in March
Quoting Naga5000:
Since it is incredible difficult for some people to understand Antarctic Sea Ice despite the repeated links and explanations, maybe a graphic will help....but I doubt it.



I get it Naga.
Quoting AreadersinceWilma:


You are absolutely correct. A case of overthinking it and failure to see the forest for the trees.
You can also add your location to your profile so we could see where you're at by clicking on your name. Unfortunately, the crack web team here doesn't seem to be able to display location with the user name. It's done that way on thousands of other blogs but it's apparently just too difficult here...
Quoting 613. luvtogolf:



I get it Naga.


Thanks. :) This grinch's heart grew three sizes today.
Quoting 606. Naga5000:

Since it is incredible difficult for some people to understand Antarctic Sea Ice despite the repeated links and explanations, maybe a graphic will help....but I doubt it.



If anyone wanted to look a little deeper and gain a better understanding, this writeup, Making sense of Antarctic sea ice changes is really good.
Quoting Naga5000:


I would ask the Norwegians at Arctic-Roos, it's actually a 1979-2006 baseline. Tis a silly place.
A slip of the fat fingers on that one. It does seem to measure ice a little differently than the other graphs but what it really comes down to is that we're losing sea ice in the Arctic and overall on the globe. The exact number is only of interest to people who seem to want to deny it's happening at all. Of course, I asked you about your regional bias before and why the graphs don't include the Alabama ice pack. As I recall, you gave me the internet equivalent of the raspberry. :-)
Wow, I've never seen the GFS be so agressive before, even in the longer range. One run even goes down to 872 mb which is the lowest pressure I've seen on a model before:



Quoting 618. sar2401:

A slip of the fat fingers on that one. It does seem to measure ice a little differently than the other graphs but what it really comes down to is that we're losing sea ice in the Arctic and overall on the globe. The exact number is only of interest to people who seem to want to deny it's happening at all. Of course, I asked you about your regional bias before and why the graphs don't include the Alabama ice pack. As I recall, you gave me the internet equivalent of the raspberry. :-)


But the ice in my freezer increased...in Florida...
Quoting 608. Naga5000:



Bias?

"Claire Parkinson of NASA recently presented the global average (Arctic plus Antarctic) trend in sea ice extent for the period 1979 to 2013. Overall, global sea ice has declined, despite the positive trend in Antarctic extent. The annual average trend is -35,000 square kilometers (-13,500 square miles) per year, or about -1.5% per decade. "

Please go read a book.


besides which, if you really wanted to be 'global' regarding ice and warming, one could always look at the total ice numbers including glaciers and ice caps. it would not support yoboi's viewpoint, however.
Quoting 599. ricderr:

Scott, please tell me where JB said this as I subscribe to his site and I have not seen or read anything pertaining to the Nino state.


hey scott.....another bit of help please....yesterday at the doctors office...i read your post that the melbourne nws had stated that nearby you stanford....had received over 61" of rain in the last 6 months...could you provide a link please....as i couldn't find it on their site...and from rainfall totals...i gather they received half of that amount......tia


Ric, now you are just flat out spamming the blog. I mean really. Here is the post below.


137. StormTrackerScott
8:22 PM GMT on March 04, 2015
NWS in Melbourne says my area near Sanford picked up 10.14" during the DJF timeframe. During the SON timeframe we picked up just over 27" of rain. So 37" of rain has fallen here the last 6 months. Folks that is a ridiculous amount of rain during the dry time of year!
Quoting 438. StormTrackerScott:



The forecast by the CFSv2, BOM, and Euro this Fall suggest a full blown strong El-Nino with colder waters near Australia.




Yeah, I'm not buying that unless dramatic alterations to the overall playing field occur... The base state as a whole looks generally more conducive than last year, but I don't expect anything more than a border-line moderate event @ best... Feasibly, we could go into a 3rd year w/ an El Nino or persistent +ENSO neutral conditions, (& as evident by the 1968-1970 multi yr EN, even a double EN is sometimes not enough to completely reconfigure the AMO into a more favorable positive state that's desired for TCs) but that's a discussion for another time.. :)
137. StormTrackerScott
8:22 PM GMT on March 04, 2015
NWS in Melbourne says my area near Sanford picked up 10.14" during the DJF timeframe. During the SON timeframe we picked up just over 27" of rain. So 37" of rain has fallen here the last 6 months. Folks that is a ridiculous amount of rain during the dry time of year!


thanx scott...could you provide the link please....as i still come up with much less when adding each month
Quoting 607. Gearsts:

Nope.


As others said it may be on your end as I can open it without problem.
Quoting 583. georgevandenberghe:



My most noxious error train occurred in high school Analytic Geometry when working with conic sections. Squares of integral numbers are nice in these calculations and I can't count the number of times my brain lied to me and said 9 25 is 36.. there, nice, easily worked.. WRONG!!


It turns out that the squares of two odd whole numbers can never add to the square of another whole number.
Quoting Naga5000:


Thanks. :) This grinch's heart grew three sizes today.


Lol...
Yeah, I'm not buying that unless dramatic alterations to the overall playing field occur... The base state as a whole looks generally more conducive than last year, but I don't expect anything more than a border-line moderate event @ best... Feasibly, we could go into a 3rd year w/ an El Nino or persistent +ENSO neutral conditions, (& as evident by the 1968-1970 multi yr EN, even a double EN is sometimes not enough to completely reconfigure the AMO into a more favorable positive state that's desired for TCs) but that's a discussion for another time.. :)


exactly.....the 30 day SOI has climbed again.......in positive numbers....closer to la nina than el nino
Quoting 610. sar2401:

Drat! I was really hoping this front was going to do something since the soundings showed as high as 2" QPF. There's a little moisture that still north of Birmingham but it's moving NE, so that means it will dry out before it gets here, if it gets here at all. It's still overcast with NNW winds of 10 mph but now the temperature has risen to 55 from 51, and that has happened in the last hour. It doesn't seem like the CAA that was being advertised early this morning.

Looks like your neighbors to the north and west got it...


Source

It's 35F at the Baton Rouge airport, huge change from the 80s yesterday. The temps last night after 1 a.m. were in a freefall. Been gusty all day, with gusts between 18 and 32 since midnight.
Quoting 625. Tropicsweatherpr:



As others said it may be on your end as I can open it without problem.
Can't open it on chrome or IE.
never mind, just saw post # 630
632. vis0
http://youtu.be/0EUPTpxoppY (640x449)




Looking for the "adult" slurrpee, i think washi115 has enuff booze for the country...though washi115 sez "its not for consump(hick)tion -whatz yer function?-", then adds "its to weight the car down during snow excavations from parking lots"...behind the booze'Я'us...distributor. : - P
The forecast low for tomorrow morning in S C IL has been raised from the low to the mid single digits after an expected high of 18 today. Sun shining brightly and at 15 to 17(N?) after lows from 11 to 9 this a.m. Pressure up above 30.5", N winds continue around 10 w/ gusts in lower 20s dew pts around 5. After mid 40s weekend, have us above normal & a low above freezing at midweek, finally!
Quoting 624. ricderr:

137. StormTrackerScott
8:22 PM GMT on March 04, 2015
NWS in Melbourne says my area near Sanford picked up 10.14" during the DJF timeframe. During the SON timeframe we picked up just over 27" of rain. So 37" of rain has fallen here the last 6 months. Folks that is a ridiculous amount of rain during the dry time of year!


thanx scott...could you provide the link please....as i still come up with much less when adding each month



Sure can I had to do some digging so here you go. Ric you can't try to out do me so give it homes. Sanford is 10 miles ENE of my location.

-SANFORD HAD THEIR 8TH WETTEST FALL ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 27.21
INCHES OF RAINFALL.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER 2014-2015 CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA..
SANFORD* 10.14" 8.30" 1.84" 122%
(SFNF1)


Grand Total of 37.35" the last 6 months to be exact.
Quoting ricderr:
137. StormTrackerScott
8:22 PM GMT on March 04, 2015
NWS in Melbourne says my area near Sanford picked up 10.14" during the DJF timeframe. During the SON timeframe we picked up just over 27" of rain. So 37" of rain has fallen here the last 6 months. Folks that is a ridiculous amount of rain during the dry time of year!


thanx scott...could you provide the link please....as i still come up with much less when adding each month


I think they use a rain bucket that sits under a storm drain. And by the way, it rains in Florida. It's called a sub or tropical climate.

Mike Masco ABC Baltimore Meteorologist
2 hrs ·
FIRE HOSE OF MOISTURE COMING NORTH!
Impressive moisture plume coming RIGHT off the southern Jet stream.
Look for snow rates to vary greatly during the afternoon.
ADD 3-6" TO YOUR TOTALS IN MANY AREA'S.
-Places with not much (south of the city) expect a big uptick.
**Most Accumulations on Grassy Surfaces**

137. StormTrackerScott
8:22 PM GMT on March 04, 2015
NWS in Melbourne says my area near Sanford picked up 10.14" during the DJF timeframe. During the SON timeframe we picked up just over 27" of rain. So 37" of rain has fallen here the last 6 months. Folks that is a ridiculous amount of rain during the dry time of year!


here's what i come up with scott....that's why i would like to see the link to figure out my error....

sanford florida rainfall totals

feb 2.82

jan 4.28

dec 2.42

nov 7.28

oct 1.14

sep 10.49

for a 6 month total of 28.43

Quoting 635. luvtogolf:



I think they use a rain bucket that sits under a storm drain. And by the way, it rains in Florida. It's called a sub or tropical climate.


Keep trying and you guys will continue to fall face down. I mean really. Getting kind of funny actually.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER 2014-2015 CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA..
SANFORD* 10.14" 8.30" 1.84" 122%



thanx for the digging scott...much appreciated....might you provide the link?
Quoting 637. ricderr:


137. StormTrackerScott
8:22 PM GMT on March 04, 2015
NWS in Melbourne says my area near Sanford picked up 10.14" during the DJF timeframe. During the SON timeframe we picked up just over 27" of rain. So 37" of rain has fallen here the last 6 months. Folks that is a ridiculous amount of rain during the dry time of year!


here's what i come up with scott....that's why i would like to see the link to figure out my error....

sanford florida rainfall totals

feb 2.82

jan 4.28

dec 2.42

nov 7.28

oct 1.14

sep 10.49

for a 6 month total of 28.43




This reporting station is just up the road from me. You are referencing the Orlando Sanford Airport which is much further to the east.


"City, St" or Zip Code

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 PM EST MON DEC 1 2014

...FALL 2014 WAS COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...

THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DOMINATED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE FALL GAVE WAY TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT
BECAME STRONGER AS THE SEASON PROGRESSED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER WERE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER NOVEMBER. THIS LED TO SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THAT WERE BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FALL. CONSIDERABLY WET PATTERNS IN SEPTEMBER AND NOVEMBER WELL MADE
UP FOR THE DRIER CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOPED IN OCTOBER AND MOST AREAS
ENDED UP WITH RAINFALL THAT WAS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.


.TEMPERATURES...

WARMER CONDITIONS IN THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER WERE FOLLOWED BY
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE MONTH AS CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL INCREASED DUE TO A STALLED FRONT OVER THE REGION. INTO
OCTOBER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES PICKED UP IN FREQUENCY BUT REMAINED ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. HOWEVER THIS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY IN NOVEMBER AS
BROAD TROUGHING SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ENABLED SEVERAL
STRONG FRONTS TO USHER IN COLDER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLDER CONDITIONS IN NOVEMBER EASILY TIPPED THE SCALE TOWARD
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON AND AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ENDED UP AROUND A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WAS VERO BEACH WHICH FOR ALL THREE
MONTHS OF THE FALL CAME IN EXCEPTIONALLY COOLER THAN THE OTHER
PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES. EACH MONTH VERO BEACH RANKED IN ITS TOP 10
COOLEST...FROM THE THIRD LOWEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN SEPTEMBER TO
THE FOURTH LOWEST IN OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER. THIS RESULTED IN AN
AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE FOR VERO BEACH THAT WAS THE COOLEST ON
RECORD.


AVERAGE TEMPERATURE VALUES FOR FALL 2014 AT THE FOUR PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS (RANKINGS
PROVIDED IF IN THE TOP 10):

-DAYTONA BEACH HAD AN AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OF 72.0 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 1.4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

-ORLANDO HAD AN AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OF 73.7 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 1.3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

-MELBOURNE HAD AN AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OF 74.5 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 0.7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

-VERO BEACH HAD AN AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OF 72.5 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, WHICH WAS 3.3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE
COOLEST FALL ON RECORD FOR THIS SITE...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 72.8 SET IN 1968 (RECORDS FOR VERO BEACH GO BACK TO 1942).

.RAINFALL...

DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY...RAINFALL INTO
THE FALL WAS QUITE ABUNDANT IN THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE SEASON.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LED TO SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD AND AT
TIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE LATTER HALF OF SEPTEMBER. THIS
SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTED TO RAINFALL TOTALS THAT AVERAGED 3 TO 5
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. THE WATER FAUCET THEN SEEMINGLY
TURNED OFF IN OCTOBER AS DRIER AIR THAT MOVED IN BEHIND PASSING WEAK
COLD FRONTS PREVAILED. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ENDED UP AROUND 2 TO 3
INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A WETTER PATTERN THEN
RETURNED INTO NOVEMBER WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING WITH
STALLED OR PASSING FRONTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. HOWEVER
MUCH OF THE RAIN FELL ON THE 25TH AND 26TH FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
INLAND AND NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS UP TO 5
TO 9 INCHES GENERALLY OCCURRED NORTH AND WEST OF MELBOURNE.

THE FLUCTUATION BETWEEN WET AND DRY THIS FALL WAS THE MOST EXTREME
FOR DAYTONA BEACH. AFTER A RECORD WET SEPTEMBER WITH A TOTAL OF
18.15 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION AT THE AIRPORT...ONLY 0.58 INCHES OF
RAIN FELL THE FOLLOWING MONTH...RANKING THIS PAST OCTOBER AS THEIR
FOURTH DRIEST. THEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL LATE IN NOVEMBER LARGELY MADE
UP THEIR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 9.09 INCHES FOR THE MONTH WHICH WENT DOWN
AS THEIR 4TH WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. ALTOGETHER AT DAYTONA BEACH
27.82 INCHES OF RAIN WAS OBSERVED AND THIS RANKED AS THEIR 2ND
HIGHEST FALL RAINFALL TOTAL ON RECORD.

FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
SEASON WERE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...RECEIVING BETWEEN 100 TO 200
PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL VALUES.


FALL 2014 RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS (RANKINGS PROVIDED IF IN THE TOP
10):

-DAYTONA BEACH RECEIVED 27.82 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE SEASON, WHICH
WAS 13.96 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 2ND WETTEST FALL ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL INCHES SHY OF THE RECORD
OF 39.22 INCHES SET BACK IN 1924 (RECORDS FOR DAYTONA BEACH GO BACK
TO 1923).

-ORLANDO RECEIVED 15.97 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE SEASON, WHICH WAS
4.43 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

-MELBOURNE RECEIVED 17.43 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE SEASON, WHICH WAS
1.85 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

-VERO BEACH RECEIVED 17.37 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE SEASON, WHICH WAS
2.39 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

CO-OPERATIVE OBSERVER STATION RAINFALL RANKINGS:

-CLERMONT HAD THEIR 4TH WETTEST FALL ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 18.47
INCHES OF RAINFALL.

-SANFORD HAD THEIR 8TH WETTEST FALL ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 27.21
INCHES OF RAINFALL.


-TITUSVILLE HAD THEIR 4TH WETTEST FALL ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF
27.21 INCHES OF RAINFALL.


scott....when i search what you posted....here's what i get...is this the page you're talking about?

Link
Quoting 639. ricderr:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER 2014-2015 CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA..
SANFORD* 10.14" 8.30" 1.84" 122%



thanx for the digging scott...much appreciated....might you provide the link?


Here you go and its posted in text format as well as we all know you will try to get me something else which is very hard for you to do anymore.

Link
Quoting 641. ricderr:

scott....when i search what you posted....here's what i get...is this the page you're talking about?

Link


That's for DJF. I said the last 6 months not 3 months as we have had between 10" and 11" the last 3 months here. 37.35" up the road in Sanford, Airport 28", and here In longwood 37.22".
645. 882MB

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
827 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS INDICATES AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL ACROSS
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT JOHN...WITH A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING IN THE 25 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. THERE ARE SOME
OUTLIERS...BUT FLOWS AT THE MAJORITY OF THE BASINS ARE ABOVE 70
PERCENT.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS...BASED ON YEAR TO DATE COOP DATA...TOTALS ARE
RUNNING FROM NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS. THESE
TOTALS RANGE FROM 91 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE HIGHEST
PERCENTAGE WAS NOTED IN THE SOUTH COASTAL CLIMATE ZONE OF PUERTO
RICO...ONE OF THE MOST ARID ZONES...WHICH IS USUALLY DRY AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE THE SOUTHERNMOST
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX REPRESENTS THE LOWEST AND THEREFORE DRIEST
ZONE...AT 91 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SOIL MOISTURE...
WHILE THE WINTER/DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS USUALLY CREATES DRIER SOILS. THIS YEAR...THE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS THAT ARE
WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS OBSERVATION IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...AS ONLY 17 PERCENT OF
PUERTO RICO IS BEING DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY (D0). THE SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

THIS FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET THUS FAR IN
PUERTO RICO...WITH THE FIRE DEPARTMENT CLAIMING A DRAMATIC DECLINE
IN REPORTED FOREST FIRES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT
CONTINUES FOR THE PREFERRED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND THE DRY
FOREST IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THESE AREAS
EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...DRIEST SOILS...MOST
COMBUSTIBLE FUELS...AND THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THE
FIRE WEATHER SEASON...WHICH RUNS FROM JANUARY THROUGH MAY.

RESERVOIRS...
BASED ON USGS GAGING SITES...A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW THAT CURRENT LEVELS DO NOT CAUSE
ANY PRESENT CONCERNS. LAGO PATILLAS IS CURRENTLY AT 221.48
FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222.00 FEET. LAGO LOIZA IS
CURRENTLY 134.31 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 132.00 FEET AND
LAGO LA PLATA IS CURRENTLY 164.92 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS
155.00 FEET. THESE LEVELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LEVELS IN MARCH
2014. PRESENTLY...THERE ARE NO WATER SUPPLY CONCERNS FOR CUSTOMERS
SERVED BY THESE RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
BASED ON THE CARIBBEAN REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK...THERE IS A GREATER
CHANCE OF NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING OF 2015...ENSO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION REMAINS NEUTRAL TRANSITIONING INTO EL NINO...SUGGESTING
NORMAL RAINFALL CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE SPRING MONTHS.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INDICATES AN ABOVE
NORMAL POTENTIAL ACROSS CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...WITH A NORMAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Looks like your neighbors to the north and west got it...


Source

It's 35F at the Baton Rouge airport, huge change from the 80s yesterday. The temps last night after 1 a.m. were in a freefall. Been gusty all day, with gusts between 18 and 32 since midnight.
Yes, it always seem to be the case. Now I'm up to 57 from 51 while Montgomery fell to 42 from 43. There's no doubt the front went through since my barometer is rising and we got the northerly wind shift. Why the CAA hasn't continued is a mystery to me but there's obviously colder air not more than 50 miles north of me that's not making any progress this way. Birmingham is reporting sleet and 30 degrees while Mobile is reporting light rain and 44 degrees, so the secondary batch of colder air is north and west of me. I assume it will get here at some point. It would be nice if bought some moisture with it but I'm not holding my breath.
Heat Index across S.W. Florida to warm you up.

thanx scott....much appreciated
Quoting 645. 882MB:


HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
827 AM AST THU MAR 5 2015

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS INDICATES AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL ACROSS
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT JOHN...WITH A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING IN THE 25 TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. THERE ARE SOME
OUTLIERS...BUT FLOWS AT THE MAJORITY OF THE BASINS ARE ABOVE 70
PERCENT.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL TOTALS...BASED ON YEAR TO DATE COOP DATA...TOTALS ARE
RUNNING FROM NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS. THESE
TOTALS RANGE FROM 91 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE HIGHEST
PERCENTAGE WAS NOTED IN THE SOUTH COASTAL CLIMATE ZONE OF PUERTO
RICO...ONE OF THE MOST ARID ZONES...WHICH IS USUALLY DRY AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE THE SOUTHERNMOST
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX REPRESENTS THE LOWEST AND THEREFORE DRIEST
ZONE...AT 91 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

SOIL MOISTURE...
WHILE THE WINTER/DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS USUALLY CREATES DRIER SOILS. THIS YEAR...THE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS THAT ARE
WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS OBSERVATION IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...AS ONLY 17 PERCENT OF
PUERTO RICO IS BEING DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY (D0). THE SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

THIS FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET THUS FAR IN
PUERTO RICO...WITH THE FIRE DEPARTMENT CLAIMING A DRAMATIC DECLINE
IN REPORTED FOREST FIRES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT
CONTINUES FOR THE PREFERRED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND THE DRY
FOREST IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THESE AREAS
EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...DRIEST SOILS...MOST
COMBUSTIBLE FUELS...AND THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THE
FIRE WEATHER SEASON...WHICH RUNS FROM JANUARY THROUGH MAY.

RESERVOIRS...
BASED ON USGS GAGING SITES...A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW THAT CURRENT LEVELS DO NOT CAUSE
ANY PRESENT CONCERNS. LAGO PATILLAS IS CURRENTLY AT 221.48
FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222.00 FEET. LAGO LOIZA IS
CURRENTLY 134.31 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 132.00 FEET AND
LAGO LA PLATA IS CURRENTLY 164.92 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS
155.00 FEET. THESE LEVELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LEVELS IN MARCH
2014. PRESENTLY...THERE ARE NO WATER SUPPLY CONCERNS FOR CUSTOMERS
SERVED BY THESE RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
BASED ON THE CARIBBEAN REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK...THERE IS A GREATER
CHANCE OF NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF MONTHS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING OF 2015...ENSO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION REMAINS NEUTRAL TRANSITIONING INTO EL NINO...SUGGESTING
NORMAL RAINFALL CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE SPRING MONTHS.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INDICATES AN ABOVE
NORMAL POTENTIAL ACROSS CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OF SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...WITH A NORMAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX.



It looks like no rationing of water for us like what almost occurred in 2014. The dry season in PR so far has been a little wet..
Quoting 642. StormTrackerScott:



Here you go and its posted in text format as well as we all know you will try to get me something else which is very hard for you to do anymore.

Link


Why didn't you post this? We are just exiting winter not fall - right? Rainfall totals for Central Florida range from 75% of normal to 133%. That would round out to about normal for the area.

BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
WINTER 2014-2015:

STATION WINTER 2014-2015 NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
RAINFALL RAINFALL FROM NORMAL NORMAL

DAYTONA BEACH 8.26" 8.15" +0.11" 101%
(DAB)
ORLANDO 9.69" 7.31" +2.38" 133%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE 7.73" 7.37" +0.36" 105%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH 6.84" 7.36" -0.52" 93%
(VRB)
CLERMONT* 8.40" 8.41" -0.01" 100%
(CLRF1)
LEESBURG 6.82" 8.14" -1.32" 84%
(KLEE)
DELAND* 10.85" 8.82" +2.03" 123%
(DELF1)
SANFORD* 10.14" 8.30" +1.84" 122%
(SFNF1)
TITUSVILLE* 7.80" 8.14" -0.34" 96%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE* 5.71" 7.57" -1.86" 75%
(FPCF1)
STUART* 7.01" 8.83" -1.82" 79%
(STRF1)
Quoting Gearsts:
Can't open it on chrome or IE.
So do you know how to flush you cache? What version of Windows? Have you done a cold start? If you haven't already done so, shut down you computer, wait a minute and then restart. If you still have a problem, type in the URL by hand, don't use a link. Something has gotten stuck on your end and it's probably in your cache or cookies. Follow the steps outlined here to flush your DNS cache and try it now. This generally fixes these kinds of problems.
Almost 5 inches in N.W D.C
I measure 4.5in so far. I could see us getting into the 6-8in. range not sure about more than that.
Quoting 619. Envoirment:
Wow, I've never seen the GFS be so agressive before, even in the longer range. One run even goes down to 872 mb which is the lowest pressure I've seen on a model before:





Somehow, I find myself doubting that the strongest Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone ever will develop within the next week. But kudos to the GFS if it does.
Quoting 650. luvtogolf:



Why didn't you post this? We are just exiting winter not fall - right? Rainfall totals for Central Florida range from 75% of normal to 133%. That would round out to about normal for the area.

BELOW IS A LIST OF OBSERVED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RAINFALL
STATISTICS FOR SELECT SITES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
WINTER 2014-2015:

STATION WINTER 2014-2015 NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF
RAINFALL RAINFALL FROM NORMAL NORMAL

DAYTONA BEACH 8.26" 8.15" +0.11" 101%
(DAB)
ORLANDO 9.69" 7.31" +2.38" 133%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE 7.73" 7.37" +0.36" 105%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH 6.84" 7.36" -0.52" 93%
(VRB)
CLERMONT* 8.40" 8.41" -0.01" 100%
(CLRF1)
LEESBURG 6.82" 8.14" -1.32" 84%
(KLEE)
DELAND* 10.85" 8.82" +2.03" 123%
(DELF1)
SANFORD* 10.14" 8.30" +1.84" 122%
(SFNF1)
TITUSVILLE* 7.80" 8.14" -0.34" 96%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE* 5.71" 7.57" -1.86" 75%
(FPCF1)
STUART* 7.01" 8.83" -1.82" 79%
(STRF1)


I posted the last 3 months DJF of 10.14 and said combined last 6 months (SON 27") has had 37" of rain which is correct. Problem?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I posted the last 3 months DJF of 10.14 and said combined last 6 months (SON 27") has had 37" of rain which is correct. Problem?


My point is that in Central Florida the past three months have been pretty much normal. A few reporting areas are above and a few are below.
And the 90-day...

Quoting 655. TimSoCal:



Somehow, I find myself doubting that the strongest Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone ever will develop within the next week. But kudos to the GFS if it does.

That thing sure is ominous looking, though...
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLZ067-070000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

PAST AND EXISTING CONDITIONS...

RAINFALL...RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2014 (SHORTLY AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE DRY
SEASON). MOST OF THIS AREA HAS ONLY RECORDED BETWEEN 50 TO 75
PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECORDING ONLY 25 TO
50 PERCENT.

RAINFALL NORTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL SINCE
NOVEMBER 1, 2014 WITH MOST AREAS RECORDING BETWEEN 90 TO 110 PERCENT
OF NORMAL RAINFALL, EXCEPT FOR METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 75 TO
90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL WAS RECORDED.

SOIL MOISTURE... THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI), WHICH IS AN
INDICATOR OR SOIL DRYNESS, SHOWS MODERATE DRYNESS OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH AREAS OF SEVERE DRYNESS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY.

GROUND WATER CONDITIONS...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WAS
AROUND 14.7 FEET WHICH IS AROUND 0.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OF 14.5 FEET.

RIVER FLOWS...THE CURRENT LEVEL OF FISHEATING CREEK IS AROUND 3.5
FEET, WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OUTLOOKS...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS, WITH THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOK CALLING FOR AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOK
THROUGH THE END OF MARCH CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR, ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST CPC THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY
CALLS FOR AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE CURRENT HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FORM THE WINTER
SEASON...HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY AND THE OUTLOOK
INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL, THE POTENTIAL
FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPLETE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THIS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE US ARMY
CORPS OF ENGINEERS.

FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEORLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE VISIT THE
FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITES:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC

$$
Heavy band of snow coming through Centreville now. Wife/nature seems to have decided now would be a good time to go into labor. It's going to be a fun night it seems.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
859 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL ALSO
BRING AN END TO THE DENSE FOG ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS.

ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-078-079- 052300-
/O.NEW.KMOB.WI.Y.0005.150305T1459Z-150306T0400Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-
INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND... BAY MINETTE...
CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY...CRESTVIEW...W AYNESBORO...
RICHTON...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...
WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
859 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE GUSTY WINDS COULD BLOW AROUND LIGHT...UNSECURED
OUTDOOR OBJECTS. IN ADDITION...DRIVING COULD BE DIFFICULT...
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING WEST AND EAST
ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. ALSO SECURE LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS THAT CAN BE EASILY BLOWN AROUND IN THE WIND.

&&

$$
Quoting LAbonbon:


Yeah, even with the recent rainfall across Southern Fl, we still have a growing area of D1 drought down in extreme South Fl.
But the recent rainfall did put a dent in some of the abnormally dry areas.

But when you're down 15" since Jan. 2014 (as Fort Myers is), it will take a while to get caught up.


You can see over by Miami and a small area of S.W. Florida are no longer in the drought area. But we have the ever increasing area of D1 down in extreme S. Fl.

Quoting 661. 1Zach1:

Heavy band of snow coming through Centreville now. Wife/nature seems to have decided now would be a good time to go into labor. It's going to be a fun night it seems.
best of luck to her,hope all goes well
Quoting 619. Envoirment:

Wow, I've never seen the GFS be so agressive before, even in the longer range. One run even goes down to 872 mb which is the lowest pressure I've seen on a model before:





The 12z ECMWF came in with a peak intensity of 935mb, much higher and much more feasible than the GFS's sub-880mb, but still an incredibly powerful system.

FWIW, the title for strongest cyclone in the South Pacific goes to 2002's Cyclone Zoe, which attained 10-minute sustained winds of 130kt (approximately 150kt 1-minute sustained) and a minimum pressure of 890 millibars:

Quoting luvtogolf:


My point is that in Central Florida the past three months have been pretty much normal. A few reporting areas are above and a few are below.


No response. Not surprised.
Plane slides off runway at LaGuardia

I'm at around 4-5 inches. All classes were cancelled; my friends didn't believe me last night when I kept telling them it was going to snow. :)
Quoting 665. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The 12z ECMWF came in with a peak intensity of 935mb, much higher and much more feasible than the GFS's sub-880mb, but still an incredibly powerful system.

FWIW, the title for strongest cyclone in the South Pacific goes to 1990's Cyclone Zoe, which attained 10-minute sustained winds of 130kt (approximately 150kt 1-minute sustained) and a minimum pressure of 890 millibars:




Zoe was 2003.
Quoting 661. 1Zach1:

Heavy band of snow coming through Centreville now. Wife/nature seems to have decided now would be a good time to go into labor. It's going to be a fun night it seems.

Oh my! Good luck!
Quoting 661. 1Zach1:

Heavy band of snow coming through Centreville now. Wife/nature seems to have decided now would be a good time to go into labor. It's going to be a fun night it seems.


Good luck. I'd consider calling an ambulance for the trip. My son decided to arrive during an ice storm in Dec. 1995 and the ambulance came to get me and got me there. We were afraid we couldn't make it in the car. It took them fifteen minutes to get me to the hospital. It took my husband an hour and a half by car. Snowing hard here in Burke VA too.
UKMET has 93P down to 967 mb, but only goes out to 144 hrs.

93P INVEST 150305 1800 9.0S 172.4E SHEM 15 1004


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 8.7S 175.6E
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.03.2015 108 8.7S 175.6E 997 35
1200UTC 10.03.2015 120 6.9S 176.0E 992 38
0000UTC 11.03.2015 132 6.0S 176.4E 974 64
1200UTC 11.03.2015 144 5.2S 177.5E 967 66
Quoting 668. wxgeek723:



Zoe was 2003.

Actually, it formed in 2002, so we were both wrong. ;)

1990 was in my head for some reason.
674. txjac
Quoting 661. 1Zach1:

Heavy band of snow coming through Centreville now. Wife/nature seems to have decided now would be a good time to go into labor. It's going to be a fun night it seems.


Woo-Hoo! Congratulations Zac!
Quoting NatsFan:


Good luck. I'd consider calling an ambulance for the trip. My son decided to arrive during an ice storm in Dec. 1995 and the ambulance came to get me and got me there. We were afraid we couldn't make it in the car. It took them fifteen minutes to get me to the hospital. It took my husband an hour and a half by car. Snowing hard here in Burke VA too.
I'll second that suggestion. We made sure an ambulance got through. Private cars, you have to convince the cops she's really having a baby and then they'd call an ambulance anyway. If the new addition decides to arrive early, it's also much easier to handle that in a warm ambulance that the back seat of your car.
Quoting 658. LAbonbon:

And the 90-day...




The reason the 90 day doesn't look as wet was that December was the odd month out with a good amount below normal rainfall for many spots, so it offsets the latter a bit.
Common man, at some point you have to move beyond school playground socializing. Don't you have anything better to do?

just wondering here....wouldn't common man....i know..you're being degrading to him...but wouldn't common man be wrong...as common would mean the norm...aka typical....wouldn't uncommon man be better....


679. vis0
CREDIT:: Me
D&T:: EST2015-03-05 133220...change clocks...
SUBJECT:: USofA Monetary quarters sized Snow flakes over Rose Hill, NYC...next neighborhood south/sw of Kips Bay.
(not the latest as took 1+ hr to upload instead of at most ~30mins @56k)
http://youtu.be/dKQmVdFe9IA


Well, I don't know what the heck is going on. The temperature is now up 10 degrees to 61 since noon. This is after it fell from 78 to 51 from 10:00 through 11:00. I'm still getting gusty NNW winds, the temperature at Montgomery is 42, Mobile is 43, and 29 at Birmingham. Somehow, it seems a big parcel of cold air is stuck to the north and west of me. I've never seen cold air advection just seem to turn off like this, especially with a strong northerly wind. There's a line of moisture associated with the colder temperature air that stretches from NE of New Orleans to NE Tennessee, but that line is only about 40 miles wide. The freezing rain in central AL has been pretty minimal so far, with some locations in the colder air reporting ice pellets or sleet, but most reporting just overcast. Pretty strange system so far.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I made a post about this yesterday, how I wish more people would be like Scott, and less miserable and always having a personal vendetta to attack someones post, especially if it is a grown person. Criticism, arguments, humor, and sarcasm are fine as long as it stays within the realm of civility, snarkiness and trying to agitate someone is just petty and doesn't belong here on this blog. And honestly, at some point before hurricane season, I would like to see an administrator or Dr. Masters himself make a post about this issue and that none of this behavior should be tolerated on this blog. I understand Rules of the Road - How to ignore a blogger is well stated in writing, but a reassurance from higher authority is needed sometimes to restore order to the blog and prevent it from getting out of control.
This is all you need to know:

If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.

We don't need anything else. If you put a blogger that annoys you on ignore, you accomplish two things. The first is you don't have to read more annoying posts. The second is you don't need to get on here and try to come up with your own interpretation of the rules. Ignore, flag, and move on.
870mb, that would tie Super Typhoon Tip.

Quoting 681. sar2401:

Well, I don't know what the heck is going on. The temperature is now up 10 degrees to 61 since noon. This is after it fell from 78 to 51 from 10:00 through 11:00. I'm still getting gusty NNW winds, the temperature at Montgomery is 42, Mobile is 43, and 29 at Birmingham. Somehow, it seems a big parcel of cold air is stuck to the north and west of me. I've never seen cold air advection just seem to turn off like this, especially with a strong northerly wind. There's a line of moisture associated with the colder temperature air that stretches from NE of New Orleans to NE Tennessee, but that line is only about 40 miles wide. The freezing rain in central AL has been pretty minimal so far, with some locations in the colder air reporting ice pellets or sleet, but most reporting just overcast. Pretty strange system so far.

It's like you're in no-man's land between two extremes:



Quoting 678. luvtogolf:



You are being selective. Have you seen me post anything anti GW in 9 months? You havent because I listened to the experts and now understand. Do you have a problem with that mr. grown up?


Hmmm well my argument was that of either/or, so I'm happy to see that you don't criticize global warming material anymore, however, it would also be nice not continue the poking at of others on the blog.

No hard feelings, I just don't like to see it.
Quoting 677. ricderr:

Common man, at some point you have to move beyond school playground socializing. Don't you have anything better to do?

just wondering here....wouldn't common man....i know..you're being degrading to him...but wouldn't common man be wrong...as common would mean the norm...aka typical....wouldn't uncommon man be better....




I'm not sure what you're trying to say?
No drama here in the Florida Big Bend this afternoon. Just the drizzly tail end of the large scale frontal passage with a mild hardly noticeable squall line; piece of cake compared to our friends further to the North in Conus:

Still nothing but a cold rain here. Temps hovering around 36 degrees.
Quoting 680. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I made a post about this yesterday, how I wish more people would be like Scott, and less miserable and always having a personal vendetta to attack someones post, especially if it is a grown person. Criticism, arguments, humor, and sarcasm are fine as long as it stays within the realm of civility, snarkiness and trying to agitate someone is just petty and doesn't belong here on this blog. And honestly, at some point before hurricane season, I would like to see an administrator or Dr. Masters himself make a post about this issue and that none of this behavior should be tolerated on this blog. I understand Rules of the Road - How to ignore a blogger is well stated in writing, but a reassurance from higher authority is needed sometimes to restore order to the blog and prevent it from getting out of control.


The thing is I've never used ignore other than rare exceptions. I'm more concerned with how one poster may be ruining the blog experience of the community. Other than that however, I really don't care.
Quoting 687. weathermanwannabe:

No drama here in the Florida Big Bend this afternoon. Just the drizzly tail end of the large scale frontal passage with a mild hardly noticeable squall line; piece of cake compared to our friends further to the North in Conus:




The rain and wind although brief is pretty decent though considering we were only expecting post-frontal stratiform rain but instead we get nice band of heavy down pours and gusty winds along with a couple rumbles of thunder. Definitely not a big deal but more interesting than what we were expecting I think lol.
I did it!

Quoting Jedkins01:


Hmmm well my argument was that of either/or, so I'm happy to see that you don't criticize global warming material anymore, however, it would also be nice not continue the poking at of others on the blog.

No hard feelings, I just don't like to see it.


Jed, no hard feelings. He brought up how excessive the rains have been since Sept. And they were in the fall, no denying that. I simply pointed out that in the winter months (which is the most current timframe) they were pretty much normal and that was ignored. And I get ripped for it. Oh well. Life is always good on the links.
Its hot here.

Here are some of the High temps so far across FL. So far Melbourne is the winner with 88.

88 °F Melbourne
87 °F Jacksonville NAS
87 °F Vero Beach
87 °F Ft Pierce
86 °F DeLand

Quoting 690. Jedkins01:



The rain and wind although brief is pretty decent though considering we were only expecting post-frontal stratiform rain but instead we get nice band of heavy down pours and gusty winds along with a couple rumbles of thunder. Definitely not a big deal but more interesting than what we were expecting I think lol.


I am working in Quincy today west of Tally (about 18 miles from you folks at FSU) so don't know if Yall got more than me but it was mild here with a nice brief pour (10 minutes) and no thunder that I could hear. Usually the opposite happens; Quincy gets hammered and the storms die down before hitting Leon County (stabilizing effect from Apallachee Bay), then they get a groove on again East of Tally from Monticello to the East all the way to Jacksonville if we are talking about a stronger Spring frontal passage that makes it across all of North Florida intact.
Monster Severe Tropical Cyclone "Pam".



Quoting 682. sar2401:

This is all you need to know:

If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.

We don't need anything else. If you put a blogger that annoys you on ignore, you accomplish two things. The first is you don't have to read more annoying posts. The second is you don't need to get on here and try to come up with your own interpretation of the rules. Ignore, flag, and move on.
Unfortunately, sar in this case luvtogolf might not realize he or she is coming off as irritating, until he or she is notified by an admin. or receives a ban. It's not so much reading and understanding the rules that I am worried about. Scott could choose to ignore that blogger, but what if he does not want to ignore that blogger? Then the rant will continue on, until a mod steps in and sees it as breaking the rules. But mods aren't here patrolling the blog 24 hours. I am pretty sure they have lives too. What I am trying to get at here is Scott may not be offended at all or he may, but just doesn't like to use the ignore feature as feeling of some sense in pride, but others like myself and Jedkins take offence into this behavior. So I feel something needs to be said about this. We are just part of the community trying to make this a friendly blogging space, so I think bringing up these issues is certainly warranted.
Quoting 684. LAbonbon:


It's like you're in no-man's land between two extremes:






It was 78 degrees in Wilmington around 2:30, I want to be in the same predicament as sar! But realistically once this front comes in the winds will pick up to gusts over 35 mph and as the rain passes we'll be in the 30's in no time.
Oh well. Life is always good on the links.

FORE!!!!!!

Quoting 692. luvtogolf:



Jed, no hard feelings. He brought up how excessive the rains have been since Sept. And they were in the fall, no denying that. I simply pointed out that in the winter months (which is the most current timframe) they were pretty much normal and that was ignored. And I get ripped for it. Oh well. Life is always good on the links.


What are talking about I said if you add these last 3 months to the SON period we have had 37" of rain again which is accurate. Also the past 2 months have been very wet too with Tampa getting well over 6" for February and Orlando with 4.5". These totals on top of January's totals have us well above average for the year and then you go to September & November 2014 which those 2 months as well were exceptionally wet so my point is the water tables are very high for a dry time of the year and that is what i was referring too. All you come on here and try to do is discount others instead it keeps back firing your so i would suggest either putting me on ignore if you don't like my post because what I posted was accurate but you still try to find something to wage a conflict on here.
Quoting 694. StormTrackerScott:

Here are some of the High temps so far across FL. So far Melbourne is the winner with 88.

88 °F Melbourne
87 °F Jacksonville NAS
87 °F Vero Beach
87 °F Ft Pierce
86 °F DeLand


85 °F here Link
Quoting ricderr:
Oh well. Life is always good on the links.

FORE!!!!!!



Gotta play where it lies or else that is cheating. We can't have that.
Quoting 697. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Unfortunately, sar in this case luvtogolf might not realize he or she is coming off as irritating, until he or she is notified by an admin. or receives a ban. It's not so much reading and understanding the rules that I am worried about. Scott could choose to ignore that blogger, but what if he does not want to ignore that blogger? Then the rant will continue on, until a mod steps in and sees it as breaking the rules. But mods aren't here patrolling the blog 24 hours. I am pretty sure they have lives too. What I am trying to get at here is Scott may not be offended at all or he may, but just doesn't like to use the ignore feature as feeling of some sense in pride, but others like myself and Jedkins take offence into this behavior. So I feel something needs to be said about this. We are just part of the community trying to make this a friendly blogging space, so I think bringing up these issues is certainly warranted.


I try not to use the ignore feature but in this case it seems excessive so I think I should add him on as I only have a few on ignore. Anyways the pollen around here is insane with everything getting coated in green from all the oak trees in my area. Not good for the sinuses.
Quoting 692. luvtogolf:



Jed, no hard feelings. He brought up how excessive the rains have been since Sept. And they were in the fall, no denying that. I simply pointed out that in the winter months (which is the most current timframe) they were pretty much normal and that was ignored. And I get ripped for it. Oh well. Life is always good on the links.


Hey well if you didn't mean any harm that's good to know. My intentions were such that the blogs have a history of having their experience degraded due to unnecessary negative interaction.

I certainly won't be holding anything against you even if you did mean harm. I just want the blog community to overall be a better experience. I'll admit that things that aren't attacks can also be interpreted as so sometimes, and that I have done so as well at times.

With that I leave you a rain blessing, may yards be ever green, lol.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Unfortunately, sar in this case luvtogolf might not realize he or she is coming off as irritating, until he or she is notified by an admin. or receives a ban. It's not so much reading and understanding the rules that I am worried about. Scott could choose to ignore that blogger, but what if he does not want to ignore that blogger? Then the rant will continue on, until a mod steps in and sees it as breaking the rules. But mods aren't here patrolling the blog 24 hours. I am pretty sure they have lives too. What I am trying to get at here is Scott may not be offended at all or he may, but just doesn't like to use the ignore feature as feeling of some sense in pride, but others like myself and Jedkins take offence into this behavior. So I feel something needs to be said about this. We are just part of the community trying to make this a friendly blogging space, so I think bringing up these issues is certainly warranted.
Then the rant on both sides continues until both sides get a ban, If enough members flag a post, it automatically disappears. We don't need mods to do that for us. If enough people don't flag the post, it means they either don't understand the rules or the post isn't as bad as you think it is. If you don't think a poster is always annoying, you can still flag a post, even if you don't use ignore, but the main thing is to move on and not get involved in trying to defend, correct, or control other bloggers. The blog is what it is. You or I can't change it or make it "better", nor is that our job. Compared to almost any place other than some cute kitten sites, this is about as tame as things get on the internet.


Good evening with an update on wild "Anton" (above a pic from 6 pm UTC; earlier ones see posts #121, 336 and 341 this morning), the Mediterranean cyclonic windstorm which was raging through Northern-Central Mediterranean today and is still going on. It caused downdraft winds in Croatia (Bora wind) and Italy (Tramontane wind) with gusts more than 200 km/h (125mph) in Croatia (a map from Crometeo even displays more than 300 km/h = 186 mph for some places!) and up to 150kmh (93 mph) in Italy.

Here is one video from Split/Croatia:


And another one from Ribarica/Croatia (in this region) which shows the offshore downdrafts:


There are many more videos available as the busy Croatian storm chasers were out in full force but I guess you've got the picture (more at Severe Weather Europe or Crometeo).

In Italy two people lost their lives, unfortunately, as especially Tuscany was hard hit - including the beautiful maritime region where I'm going to spend my summer holidays in June, called "Versilia". A LOT of very large (Pine) trees were uprooted and even a spire was cut and thrown into a nearby roof:



Apart from the strong winds the cyclone currently is dumping some feet of snow on the mountains of central Italy and parts of the Balkan as well. Estofex says that the storm isn't yet fully detached from western winds (so not a cut-off low) and highlights warnings especially for parts of Greece in the next hours:

"A positive tilted trough over the CNTRL Mediterranean tries to drip off the westerlies but latest model guidance does not yet support a cut-off solution during the end of the forecast. This kind of process does not result in rapid motion and therefore a quasi-stationary but strong trough will affect SE Europe.
While a 1035 hPa high over France builds east, the main feature of interest in the lower troposphere is a sub-1010 hPa vortex over S-Italy. This depression drifts slowly to the SE over the Ionian Sea while filling. Widespread drop of surface pressure also occurs further east over the Aegean Sea as some models try to develop a zonal aligned surface trough. A pronounced baroclinic zone evolves over NE Greece and SE Bulgaria."



Development of "Anton" during the day (saved animation). Croatians named the storm as "Rea" BTW.

Winds this afternoon with the strongest of them (purple) still coming down the mountains of Croatia:

Quoting 705. Jedkins01:



Hey well if you didn't mean any harm that's good to know. My intentions were such that the blogs have a history of having their experience degraded due to unnecessary negative interaction.

I certainly won't be holding anything against you even if you did mean harm. I just want the blog community to overall be a better experience. I'll admit that things that aren't attacks can also be interpreted as so sometimes, and that I have done so as well at times.

With that I leave you a rain blessing, may yards be ever green, lol.


Jed, looking like pop up storm pattern next week just in time for you to get back into town although models not as robust with those chances as yesterday.
Quoting 695. weathermanwannabe:



I am working in Quincy today west of Tally (about 18 miles from you folks at FSU) so don't know if Yall got more than me but it was mild here with a nice brief pour (10 minutes) and no thunder that I could hear. Usually the opposite happens; Quincy gets hammered and the storms die down before hitting Leon County (stabilizing effect from Apallachee Bay), then they get a groove on again East of Tally from Monticello to the East all the way to Jacksonville if we are talking about a stronger Spring frontal passage that makes it across all of North Florida intact.


Yeah you're right, that's usually how it works, these events usually are stronger over there, only to die down as they approach here, well just in terms of convective intensity, Tallahassee gets of plenty of heavy rain totals, lol.

If you look at the radar loops, it was a bit stronger as it came through Tallahassee and also a bit thicker, still not a big deal but the rainfall was decent and we had pretty gusty winds and a little bit of lightning.

Just the original model guidance just said blotches of light precip behind the front, but not any convection ahead of it, so while it wasn't a big deal, it was a bit more potent than model guidance.

The squall line we had last week also got a lot stronger as it came into Tallahassee due to a surge in instability, it also got even stronger further southeast of us as well though, dame reports and radar trends show that pretty well.
I guess I'll put myself in timeout. I just hope in the future no one criticizes or challenges anyone when they post a chart 2 weeks out telling us to watch out because we are going to get hammered.
Quoting 708. StormTrackerScott:



Jed, looking like pop up storm pattern next week just in time for you to get back into town although models not as robust with those chances as yesterday.


Yeah I noticed, we'll be hard pressed to see anything decent though even if it does happen because cooler water temps and the fact that it's only March means not nearly enough instability to see more than some weak activity.

The only way that could change is if we had cold enough temperature aloft to make up for that, but it doesn't really seem that will be the case. Regardless though, just to see any model depiction of sea breeze convection in March is still interesting.

It's going to be great weather for Spring break, ironically my last day in Tallahassee tomorrow before heading back will be quite cold after all the 80's we've had for several days here. Oh well, it still won't be bad compared to most places. I'm glad to see it won't last though, and the fact that the cold air won't be making it into Central Florida, just some weak cooling into the 70's, pretty darn mild.

Model guidance indicates that increasing heights above normal again next week will support a return to 80's, fine with me!
Snow event is just about over for the D.C. area moving up the coast towards NYC.
Quoting 711. Jedkins01:



Yeah I noticed, we'll be hard pressed to see anything decent though even if it does happen because cooler water temps and the fact that it's only March means not nearly enough instability to see more than some weak activity.

The only way that could change is if we had cold enough temperature aloft to make up for that, but it doesn't really seem that will be the case. Regardless though, just to see any model depiction of sea breeze convection in March is still interesting.

It's going to be great weather for Spring break, ironically my last day in Tallahassee tomorrow before heading back will be quite cold after all the 80's we've had for several days here. Oh well, it still won't be bad compared to most places. I'm glad to see it won't last though, and the fact that the cold air won't be making it into Central Florida, just some weak cooling into the 70's, pretty darn mild.

Model guidance indicates that increasing heights above normal again next week will support a return to 80's, fine with me!


The cooler shelf waters could actually lead to more robust sea breeze convection by adding more surface instability. Well see. 500mb temps each day are around -10C and dewpoints 65 to 70.

Tuesday


Wednesday


Thursday


Quoting LAbonbon:

It's like you're in no-man's land between two extremes:/em>
Pretty strange stuff. I'm down to 54 now so it appears that the secondary parcel of cold air is working its way SE. The barometer is up to 30.07 from 29.88 four hours ago and the humidity is starting to drop. The line that has the moisture is now completely disconnected from frontal support and it's starting to get worked over by what looks like a dry slot developing in front of it. It's getting that Swiss cheese look about it, and I think it will be be devoid of moisture by the time it makes it here. All the winter warnings have now been canceled or have expired. I don't think this working out quite the same way as the models predicted.
715. vis0

Quoting 427. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

feb 2015 Anomaly global temps

The following statement was made during a dream, not even a conscious me is responsible for its content, and these areas will not happen every yr the ml-d is ON, but 6 or 7 of every 11 yrs.  In what order? only nature and future students/Professors that learn Galacsics (or whatever its called) will know. Of the 11 yrs most yrs, 10 will be cooler and 5 or 6 very much cooler in the NE of the USofA only 1 year will lean towards a warmer anomaly than the rest of the world, as long as the ml-d is On & in NYc. And now the dream::
=====================
Weird in looking at those ANOMALIES as if someone had an ml-d somewhere over NE USofA so a semi permanent LOW like affect over the NE of USofA and just outside the ml-d's AOI reply-HIGHs formed as the Hudson Bay's RRR version aka bRRR (cold high - barometric RRR) just outside the ml-d's AOI brings vertically down cooler air from the cooler atmospheres nearer to "space".

Add to that, the S. Hem. Notice the highest pool of warmth which stays warmer to a coastline (every other body of water in S. Hem is cooler near its adjoining coastline) as if there where an opposite affect on the other side of the world to the NE of USofA ml-d settings. Therefore instead of a LOW in the center its a semi-permanent HIGH just off western/wsw Australia's coast. Eastern Australia's coast has cooler ANOMALY waters, S. America too but its cut off on this view.
======================
....WAKE UP WAKE UP vis0, El Niño is here, but he looks very weak, fix him a warm bath so he can feel better.

El Niño, ya gotta be dreaming or i'm in StormTrackerScott's dream?

Nope,not in his dream,why? cause i'm still eating my pizza supreme, whew.

Congrats to StormTrackerScott, he did stay quiet -for his style- during the winter. (HEY we all have our styles/mannerisms if its not to your liking read on, i never ignore any comment cause every word is encased within the breath of life thus every word as weird as it may read has some importance attached to it)
El Niño watchers stay calm, as the odds for a mod or higher Niño might be as the year ends.

This makes TS aficionados will "happy" to see major Hurricanes nicely formed in the ATL/GoMx and El Niño watchers will be happy to see El Niño's potential... By "happy" i think all here wished all storms died down as they reached land so plants could get rain but without the damage, but that's not the case so try to keep that joy on an scientific plane, use that knowledge to warn others when serious weather approaches.
US EXTREMES

High Temperature
88 F
Fernandina Beach, FL
Low Temperature
-37 F
Brimson, MN
Precipitation
1.48 in
Aberdeen, MS

Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey well if you didn't mean any harm that's good to know. My intentions were such that the blogs have a history of having their experience degraded due to unnecessary negative interaction.

I certainly won't be holding anything against you even if you did mean harm. I just want the blog community to overall be a better experience. I'll admit that things that aren't attacks can also be interpreted as so sometimes, and that I have done so as well at times.

With that I leave you a rain blessing, may yards be ever green, lol.


As you can tell by my name, I spend a lot of time on the course. Because of that, I am very keen to the water levels of the lakes. This year we are in good shape. I've seen them higher and have certainly seen them lower. The real test with our water levels is the next 90 days. It's getting hotter and I've seen the lakes almost dry up come May. We won't be that bad this year because as I said, they are all full. The fire ants have exploded over the past month. Not sure if is that we did not again have a freeze or not. All I know is that they are all over the courses.
Precip. has stopped for a few minutes. Temperature has dropped to 32 degrees. We may get a quick burst of snow before the front moves past but nothing in the 1-3 inch range that was predicted. Personally, i'm ready for spring and severe storms :)
WPC updated the current winter storm forecast; supports some of the observations on this Blog this afternoon from Bloggers in some of these areas. The snow will taper off this evening but the bitter cold behind the front is going to cause problems on the road with icing (as well as power outages for many):

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 04 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID ATLANTIC WINTER
STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EST THU MAR 05 2015

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE RAIN CHANGES TO
SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL
AS A NARROW SWATH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
EXTREME EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 300 PM EST...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES...WAS
LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH
AND EAST. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED AN EXTENDED SWATH OF PRECIPITATION FROM PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SNOW...WAS BEING REPORTED. FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS COLD
AIR FILLED IN WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY RAIN WAS
FALLING.
THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TONIGHT. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND ARCTIC AIR
FILTERING IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW AND
ICE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE IT BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.
PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.
And here are the current watches and warnings:

Well...as the saying goes..it's not over until it's over..

I'm taking this with a huge grain o salt.
Anyone think this el nino will have a huge impact on this year's hurricane season? Any analog years tracks and numbers.
Scott, or anyone, is there any possibility of a modoki el nino, or this el nino diminishing by the peak or beginning of this year's hurricane season? Also, have their been any hurricane seasons, in which there was an average season? Please name some.
Quoting 706. sar2401:

Then the rant on both sides continues until both sides get a ban, If enough members flag a post, it automatically disappears. We don't need mods to do that for us. If enough people don't flag the post, it means they either don't understand the rules or the post isn't as bad as you think it is. If you don't think a poster is always annoying, you can still flag a post, even if you don't use ignore, but the main thing is to move on and not get involved in trying to defend, correct, or control other bloggers. The blog is what it is. You or I can't change it or make it "better", nor is that our job. Compared to almost any place other than some cute kitten sites, this is about as tame as things get on the internet.


The back and forth with and about Scott each and every day is beyond tiresome. At this point, it is what it is, and everyone needs to either pass over it or put him on ignore. Otherwise, you can pretty much count on the following comments every day: El Nino, rain in FL, flooding in FL, or heat in FL. If that's not your cup of tea, put him on ignore. The mods clearly aren't doing anything to steer the comments in a more productive direction, so just accept it and move on. There's always going to be some model showing a lot of rain for FL, so there's always going to be something for him to post about it.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


The back and forth with and about Scott each and every day is beyond tiresome. At this point, it is what it is, and everyone needs to either pass over it or put him on ignore. Otherwise, you can pretty much count on the following comments every day: El Nino, rain in FL, flooding in FL, or heat in FL. If that's not your cup of tea, put him on ignore. The mods clearly aren't doing anything to steer the comments in a more productive direction, so just accept it and move on. There's always going to be some model showing a lot of rain for FL, so there's always going to be something for him to post about it.


I would put him on ignore but when people quote him his posts are visible so I don't bother. Btw, checking the NWS river observations, there isn't one river in all of central Florida that is near flood stage. I had to look because it has been said on here (not naming anyone) has never seen rivers so high. I guess it's a matter of perception versus reality.
I just came in from work eating pizza and I was going to say should I read back or lets just go on from here
The line headed this way from central AL is bringing colder air. I'm at 47 now and the NNW wind has picked up again. Unfortunately, the moisture associated with this line is rapidly dissolving, as you can see from this radar image.



Birmingham has an interesting update that shows why models, even when the event is on top of us, are still inferior to old fashioned upstream weather observation. BMX had a hard time keeping up with the changeover to sleet and freezing rain further south than the models predicted this morning as more and more spotter reports of sleet came in. This afternoon, they have had a hard time keeping up with the rapidly diminishing precipitation and canceling advisories and warnings fast enough. Things are never dull in the world of Alabama weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
347 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ARCTIC AIR - ONE...MODELS - ZERO. THE ARCTIC AIR WORKED IN MUCH
QUICKER AND COOLED THE AIR COLUMN ALOT MORE THAN ANY MODEL WAS
LOOKING AT. THUS THE ADDITIONAL SLEET AND SNOW THAT WAS OBSERVED.
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION HAS SWITCHED TO GENERALLY ONE LINE
STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD...SOUTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR. OVERALL THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW WORKING INTO AN AIRMASS THAT IS NOW ABOVE
FREEZING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST
PART WE WILL BE SEEING RAIN...WITH MIXED SLEET POCKETS THROUGH 6
PM. NO ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
Link
My video on the recently declared El Niño.
730. vis0
Its like Neapolitan with no StormTrackerScott

Its like StormTrackerScott with no Neapolitan

(thanks to Tropicsweatherpr's blog as in reading things there lead me to this link)...reminds me to get Reeses® pieces)
Quoting 725. jrweatherman:



I would put him on ignore but when people quote him his posts are visible so I don't bother. Btw, checking the NWS river observations, there isn't one river in all of central Florida that is near flood stage. I had to look because it has been said on here (not naming anyone) has never seen rivers so high. I guess it's a matter of perception versus reality.


I'm not sure if you're referring to me, but I have made the point that I have never seen some of my local watersheds so high in my area during this time of the year. The important part of that is "during this time of the year". This is typically the time of year that lakes/creeks/rivers in FL are not at a high point.
Quoting 726. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I just came in from work eating pizza and I was going to say should I read back or lets just go on from here


You could just wait until tomorrow; it'll all repeat again in the morning.
11 husbands?????
It has now passed...
Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather · 5m 5 minutes ago
With at least 4.6 inches, Washington, D.C. has broken the snowfall record for the date. Previously 4.4 in 1888.

Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather · 28m 28 minutes ago
DC, for 1st time since 86-87 and 87-88, has logged back-to-back winters w/ above normal snow (2013-14, 2014-15):
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I'm not sure if you're referring to me, but I have made the point that I have never seen some of my local watersheds so high in my area during this time of the year. The important part of that is "during this time of the year". This is typically the time of year that lakes/creeks/rivers in FL are not at a high point.


Absolutely not referring to you. You tell it like it is, no hype or exaggeration.
Darn it, after this morning's 5 & 7-day QPFs, I thought the heavy rains along the western/northern Gulf might not be happening...but they're back.



The blog is here for people to civilly discuss different thoughts on whatever the topic may be, not to shoot down someone else's ideas on a subject. If one persons ideas don't sit well with you then ignore them. Don't steadily argue with them. Especially when it interferes with the enjoyment of others who are just here because they enjoy weather.
Quoting 733. AlrightyThen:

11 husbands?????


LOL...I didn't see that when I read it...read too fast I suppose...good catch!

BTW, first comment - welcome!
Began sleeting here about 15 minutes ago. It's a light coating on the ground but it isn't sticking to the roads at this time.
Quoting 734. washingtonian115:

It has now passed...
Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather %uFFFF 5m 5 minutes ago
With at least 4.6 inches, Washington, D.C. has broken the snowfall record for the date. Previously 4.4 in 1888.

Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather %uFFFF 28m 28 minutes ago
DC, for 1st time since 86-87 and 87-88, has logged back-to-back winters w/ above normal snow (2013-14, 2014-15):



spring come forth now
it is winters end

Quoting 740. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



spring come forth now
it is winters end


Eh hem...
CapitalWeatherGang
GFS is starting to look "interesting" 10 days out -- yes I know that's out in dreamland -- but maybe we just might get a bit of an encore before we're really into spring...
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Anyone think this el nino will have a huge impact on this year's hurricane season? Any analog years tracks and numbers.
It's my opinion that we have had El Nino conditions for over a year now. All the teleconnections didn't match up quite right but those are a bunch of arbitrary points at which some weather agency agrees about an official El Nino. The drastic increase in Pacific tropical cyclones and decrease in Atlantic storms is exactly what you'd expect to see with an El Nino. This one is going to be weakly positive, which is why the overall effects outside of tropical cyclones has been minimal.

The whole concept of analogue years sucks. There will never be a year with exactly the same conditions. We don't even know all the conditions needed for a slow or busy season. Analogues just look at a bunch of numbers from long range models and then try to find previous years where the numbers match. I'm hoping you understand by now that long range models and throwing darts have about the same probabilities of hitting a bullseye every time. However, if I was forced to chose an analogue, it would be last year. The El Nino effects will probably be about the same and overall conditions haven't changed much. I can't see any reason that this season is going to be radically different than last season. If it turns out to be different, my guess would be even less named storms this season.

Finally, no matter how many times you ask, an honest answer is no one knows. Come June 1, we'll have a slightly better idea of conditions, but even that doesn't guarantee we'd get it right for the whole season. We live in area know for severe storms. The best advice I can give you is to develop an interest and understanding of severe storms and follow them in the off season. You'll soon find out how difficult it is to predict them a day in advance, which should give you some insight into trying to predict any kind of weather months in advance.
Everyone stay safe this evening as I am heading out. Not calling anyone out, as we have so many regulars who blog on here everyday and make great contributions, but as an 8 year Blogger on here, I thinks that it highly unfair, to all of us, to "hog" the Blog the entire day with 20-50 comments or more (including some back and forth bickering). That is actually a bit too much and I would think that it also turns off others who tune in from time to time to check in on the discussion (and a lot do during severe weather or tropical storms) or keeps them from joining in.

I don't have any personal issues with Scott but it has become the "Scott Show" ever since he joined every day and anyone looking in can see that. I still think admin should keep the Blog open like it is but consider (it should be easy to do) limiting any Bloggers comments to 20 per any 24 hour period (or from 6:00 am to Midnight). That would allow others to participate as well, not allow some to hog the blog or post the same issue all day, and give people pause about what they post in any given day and make every word and comment count (and on topic).

Just my own 2 cents on the issue of Blog courtesy and wanting to see other voices contribute on here (and come back for some of the great bloggers from the past who have left).
What a cold front. The temperature here was 74F at 4pm, and it has since fallen to 41F with wind gusts over 40 mph.
Quoting 741. washingtonian115:

Eh hem...
CapitalWeatherGang
GFS is starting to look "interesting" 10 days out -- yes I know that's out in dreamland -- but maybe we just might get a bit of an encore before we're really into spring...
ya we can or could but if it does it will all melt as soon as the march sun peeks out from behind the clouds
18Z, GFS shows an interesting storm track with a low coming up out of the GOM next week.
El Nino has just been declared!!!

Link
Quoting 743. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone stay safe this evening as I am heading out. Not calling anyone out, as we have so many regulars who blog on here everyday and make great contributions, but as an 8 year Blogger on here, I thinks that it highly unfair, to all of us, to "hog" the Blog the entire day with 20-50 comments or more (including some back and forth bickering). That is actually a bit too much and I would think that it also turns off others who tune in from time to time to check in on the discussion (and a lot do during severe weather or tropical storms) or keeps them from joining in.

I don't have any personal issues with Scott but it has become the "Scott Show" ever since he joined every day and anyone looking in can see that. I still think admin should keep the Blog open like it is but consider (it should be easy to do) limiting any Bloggers comments to 20 per any 24 hour period (or from 6:00 am to Midnight). That would allow others to participate as well, not allow some to hog the blog or post the same issue all day, and give people pause about what they post in any given day and make every word and comment count (and on topic).

Just my own 2 cents on the issue of Blog courtesy and wanting to see other voices contribute on here (and come back for some of the great bloggers from the past who have left).
Fully agree.
Quoting weatherbro:
El Nino has just been declared!!!

Link




your late too the party
Deadly floods in east Africa
BBC weather video, 5 March 2015 Last updated at 20:42
Two tropical storms bring the potential for life threatening floods to Madagascar and Mozambique. BBC Weather's Ben Rich looks at the weather systems responsible for the dramatic conditions and where the worst will hit.




Edit:
Madagascar: Disaster-Prone Madagascar Battles Flooding and Drought
5 March 2015
Antananarivo - Authorities in Madagascar are struggling to respond to increasingly severe flooding in the central highlands region of the country that includes the capital, Antananarivo, in addition to a prolonged drought in the south.
The latest round of flooding, which started when three rivers that cross Antananarivo - the Sisaony, Ikopa and Imamba - burst their banks during a storm on 24 February, has left 19 people dead and an estimated 36,000 displaced, according to the National Office for the Management of Risks and Catastrophes (BNRGC in French). A further 40,000 people were displaced in 13 other districts. ...

Whole article see link above.
Quoting LAbonbon:
Darn it, after this morning's 5 & 7-day QPFs, I thought the heavy rains along the western/northern Gulf might not be happening...but they're back.
I'm sorry, but I'm supposed to put any faith in this kind of thing? We've gone from almost nothing to 4 inches in 12 hours? It must be quite a storm which has developed since this morning.

System over the mid Atlantic that originally comes out of the GOM on the Texas coast.



Another D.C. snow?
Quoting 743. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone stay safe this evening as I am heading out. Not calling anyone out, as we have so many regulars who blog on here everyday and make great contributions, but as an 8 year Blogger on here, I thinks that it highly unfair, to all of us, to "hog" the Blog the entire day with 20-50 comments or more (including some back and forth bickering). That is actually a bit too much and I would think that it also turns off others who tune in from time to time to check in on the discussion (and a lot do during severe weather or tropical storms) or keeps them from joining in.

I don't have any personal issues with Scott but it has become the "Scott Show" ever since he joined every day and anyone looking in can see that. I still think admin should keep the Blog open like it is but consider (it should be easy to do) limiting any Bloggers comments to 20 per any 24 hour period (or from 6:00 am to Midnight). That would allow others to participate as well, not allow some to hog the blog or post the same issue all day, and give people pause about what they post in any given day and make every word and comment count (and on topic).

Just my own 2 cents on the issue of Blog courtesy and wanting to see other voices contribute on here (and come back for some of the great bloggers from the past who have left).


I couldn't agree with you more on all points.
Quoting 753. sar2401:

I'm sorry, but I'm supposed to put any faith in this kind of thing? We've gone from almost nothing to 4 inches in 12 hours? It must be quite a storm which has developed since this morning.



Here are the ones issued yesterday afternoon. The ones issued this morning didn't have these levels; the recent round of issued QPFs are similar to yesterday's. The 7-day from two days ago was indicating heavy rain as well (2+ in)


Quoting weatherbro:
El Nino has just been declared!!!

Link
Yes, it was. At 9:00 this morning. People have been talking about it ever since.
Quoting sar2401:
Yes, it was. At 9:00 this morning. People have been talking about it ever since.


I totally missed it. The first El Nino since the 2009-10 event.
Michael Ventrice
‏MJVentrice
Huge westerly wind burst signature over the Date Line in the latest ECMWF weeklies. Another Advancement towards El Nino likely
Today Scott be like...
BTW, concerning the super cyclone which is predicted by GFS for the Coral Sea east of Australia next week: I've tried to check out what ECMWF shows on that Wundermap 180h out, see a screenshot below. Unfortunately I'm a bit too dull to interpret this map, but without any doubt there is a cyclone:


Click the picture to enlarge. Source.

Found a Facebook-entry from a certain David Armstrong which I can read though I'm not a fb-member: ** Coral Sea / Tropical Update : Now FULL model agreement of a cyclone developing in the Coral Sea by early next week **
Quoting 726. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I just came in from work eating pizza and I was going to say should I read back or lets just go on from here


You eat pizza for a living?

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
345 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

(snip)

Southern stream becomes much more active Sunday through Thursday
as today/S front lifts back northward into the northern Gulf and a
series of upper level disturbances results in overrunning
precipitation across much of the region. Will be carrying at least
chance probability of precipitation for the entire area Sunday through Thursday with the
best chances...currently in the 60 to 70 percent range...on
Monday. Overall pattern is favorable for multiple rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall
...and will need to keep an eye on model
trends concerning the axis of heaviest rainfall. Current
forecast calls for widespread totals of 2 to 3 inches
for the
Sunday through Thursday time frame. However...latest guidance from
wpc indicates heavier totals of around 4.5 inches will remain just
offshore. This will need to be monitored as even a small northward
shift could result in these totals bleeding over into land areas
.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Here are the ones issued yesterday afternoon. The ones issued this morning didn't have these levels; the recent round of issued QPFs are similar to yesterday's. The 7-day from two days ago was indicating heavy rain as well (2+ in)


Never mind. I was looking at a one day and then at the seven day. Operator error. I'm not sure I still buy the heavy rain depicted in any case, but we shall see. The prediction for today was for a lot more than 0.18" and that hasn't worked out too well.
Quoting 743. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone stay safe this evening as I am heading out. Not calling anyone out, as we have so many regulars who blog on here everyday and make great contributions, but as an 8 year Blogger on here, I thinks that it highly unfair, to all of us, to "hog" the Blog the entire day with 20-50 comments or more (including some back and forth bickering). That is actually a bit too much and I would think that it also turns off others who tune in from time to time to check in on the discussion (and a lot do during severe weather or tropical storms) or keeps them from joining in.

I don't have any personal issues with Scott but it has become the "Scott Show" ever since he joined every day and anyone looking in can see that. I still think admin should keep the Blog open like it is but consider (it should be easy to do) limiting any Bloggers comments to 20 per any 24 hour period (or from 6:00 am to Midnight). That would allow others to participate as well, not allow some to hog the blog or post the same issue all day, and give people pause about what they post in any given day and make every word and comment count (and on topic).

Just my own 2 cents on the issue of Blog courtesy and wanting to see other voices contribute on here (and come back for some of the great bloggers from the past who have left).


Careful, that would put a serious crimp on Sar's social life.

Quoting LAbonbon:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
345 PM CST Thursday Mar 5 2015

(snip)

Southern stream becomes much more active Sunday through Thursday
as today/S front lifts back northward into the northern Gulf and a
series of upper level disturbances results in overrunning
precipitation across much of the region. Will be carrying at least
chance probability of precipitation for the entire area Sunday through Thursday with the
best chances...currently in the 60 to 70 percent range...on
Monday. Overall pattern is favorable for multiple rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall
...and will need to keep an eye on model
trends concerning the axis of heaviest rainfall. Current
forecast calls for widespread totals of 2 to 3 inches
for the
Sunday through Thursday time frame. However...latest guidance from
wpc indicates heavier totals of around 4.5 inches will remain just
offshore. This will need to be monitored as even a small northward
shift could result in these totals bleeding over into land areas
.
In other words, they looked at the same graphic we did and adjusted the forecast. :-) The southern stream hasn't been able to carry the day so far. It looks like we warm up next week so any rain we do get should be all rain. Birmingham is 27, Montgomery is 37, and I'm at 42, all at 5:00 pm...on March 5. We lucked out with this one, with Birmingham only getting two hours worth of freezing rain. Even double that amount of time would have led to big trouble with the evening commute. This winter storm thing is fun for awhile but it's starting to get really old now.
Quoting 661. 1Zach1:

Heavy band of snow coming through Centreville now. Wife/nature seems to have decided now would be a good time to go into labor. It's going to be a fun night it seems.



Congrats and good luck! Maybe your baby will be El Nino's twin!
WSI's Atmospheric ENSO Index, which was indicating El Nino conditions through last spring, summer, and the first part of winter, has since fallen to cool Neutral territory as the CPC declares El Nino. Go figure.

770. beell
Quoting 769. TropicalAnalystwx13:

WSI's Atmospheric ENSO Index, which was indicating El Nino conditions through last spring, summer, and the first part of winter, has since fallen to cool Neutral territory as the CPC declares El Nino. Go figure.




No. "Go Fish!"
Quoting 769. TropicalAnalystwx13:

WSI's Atmospheric ENSO Index, which was indicating El Nino conditions through last spring, summer, and the first part of winter, has since fallen to cool Neutral territory as the CPC declares El Nino. Go figure.


Seems that not all meteorological or oceanographic centers have the same requirements for declaring an official El Nino. Its only my opinion, but an El Nino should be declared only when the waters along the waters along the N.W.South American coast reach above average. Thats how it became El Nino in the first place.
Winter is not over just yet, more snow coming.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
WSI's Atmospheric ENSO Index, which was indicating El Nino conditions through last spring, summer, and the first part of winter, has since fallen to cool Neutral territory as the CPC declares El Nino. Go figure.

Which shows one of two things. Either the CPC declaration of El Nino was done before it met all the previous preconditions or the proprietary WSI "Atmospheric ENSO Index" stinks. I'll leave it to your judgement which is the most likely.
Quoting 771. hydrus:

Seems that not all meteorological or oceanographic centers have the same requirements for declaring an official El Nino. Its only my opinion, but an El Nino should be declared only when the waters along the waters along the N.W.South American coast reach above average. Thats how it became El Nino in the first place.

El Nino comes in more than one flavor though. Speaking strictly about the sea surface temperature configuration, the ongoing marginal event is more Modoki in nature (central-based) than traditional. Forecasts for low-level winds across the equatorial Pacific favor warming across the eastern portion of the basin over the coming month. Thereafter? It's anybody's guess. I wouldn't hold my breath for a strong El Nino anytime soon, however.
Quoting 747. weatherbro:
El Nino has just been declared!!!

Link


I missed that this morning as well. It's a little weird that it's not just a "potential" El Nino anymore.
Quoting 773. sar2401:
Which shows one of two things. Either the CPC declaration of El Nino was done before it met all the previous preconditions or the proprietary WSI "Atmospheric ENSO Index" stinks. I'll leave it to your judgement which is the most likely.


WSI "Atmospheric ENSO Index" stinks.
This ones definitely got Mokiki written all over it!

778. vis0





605. yoboi
6:04 PM GMT on March 05, 2015







Quoting 596.
Naga5000:


Better? They are different measurements, they
measure different things, both are useful. Extent measures the area with at
least 15% ice coverage while area is a more direct measurement of total
ice.

Area is still really low.



By any metric this years Arctic Sea Ice is in bad
shape going into the melt season. Why continue to pretend it's
not?


YOBOI SAID:: With heat you are always using
global......But when discussing ice you use regional....Bias???

Maybe the explanation is too scientific as it might be for me or since i luv
food i see colourful al dente "spaphetti".
Here is my way of showing that
what matters is what is happening Globally cause you are in this
globe.
(Global cooling do you see that today-yesterday-last decade
(742x128)

 
Quoting 777. weatherbro:

This ones definitely got Mokiki written all over it!


Did someone say madoki?...lol.Seriously I don't think we're going to see another 2004 anytime soon.
Tallahassee airport ended up with 0.80 and I got 0.51 at my apartment, not bad for a 15 minute thunderstorm and another hour of light rain/sprinkles.

The forecast was 0.10 to 0.20, so we definitely did pretty good.
Quoting 761. misanthrope:



You eat pizza for a living?




World's best taste tester. Some of us are teachers, some of us engineers, and some of us pizza eaters. We all fill a role, my friend.
Quoting 774. TropicalAnalystwx13:


El Nino comes in more than one flavor though. Speaking strictly about the sea surface temperature configuration, the ongoing marginal event is more Modoki in nature (central-based) than traditional. Forecasts for low-level winds across the equatorial Pacific favor warming across the eastern portion of the basin over the coming month. Thereafter? It's anybody's guess. I wouldn't hold my breath for a strong El Nino anytime soon, however.
I already know this. I was attempting to convey a specific aspect .The name El Nino originated when local fisherman noticed a significant warming of the coastal waters, and the changes in the weather pattern that occurred when it arrived . To me , any other changes out in the Pacific is not an El Nino.
Quoting 746. Sfloridacat5:

18Z, GFS shows an interesting storm track with a low coming up out of the GOM next week.
And been very persistent with too.
I like these snowfall accumulation maps.





These are OK.



7.5 inches here...I'm not ready to call this "The finale act" as the models do show cold returning with another low originating from the gulf in 10 days.It could do anything but "Its not over until its over".I'm sure winter has over stayed his welcome here in the D.C area for many folks.
Quoting 783. StormTrackerScott:
Ouch!




Makes sense with the WWB and super-cyclone being forecast in the near future.

Edit: I still find myself very skeptical of the atmosphere's response to this El Nino, even though CPC finally called it today.
Quoting 786. washingtonian115:

7.5 inches here...I'm not ready to call this "The finale act" as the models do show cold returning with another low originating from the gulf in 10 days.It could do anything but "Its not over until its over".I'm sure winter has over stayed his welcome here in the D.C area for many folks.


This made me think of you

ECWMF shows very cold air around that time the GFS has the storm so we'll be keeping a close eye on that time period...
The Massachusetts snow severity index, the product of Worcester's and Boston's snow totals remained at 12218.92, well below the 1995-1996 peak of 14300.04.


Providence, RI moved up from 6th snowiest season to 3rd snowiest season today.

The southern New England snow severity index, the product of the snow totals in Hartford, Providence, Worcester and Boston increased from 48,691,907.44 to 52,894,482.79 today. This is far behind the 1995-1996 season when it reached 174,785,384.1, and all four cities set their seasonal snowfall records.
Check out some of the crazy cold lows forecast tonight in the lowlands of central Kentucky.
Severe Flooding in Brazil Forces More Than 80,000 to Evacuate
REUTERS/ Odairl Leal, Latin America, 10:36 05.03.2015(updated 13:35 05.03.2015)
Weeks of heavy rain have caused the River Acre to burst its banks, with emergency services estimating at least 75,000 people in the state of Acre have been affected, and more in Bolivia and Peru.
Flooding in the northwestern Brazilian state of Acre has affected more than 80,000 people, according to media reports, after the River Acre, which runs through Peru, Brazil and Bolivia, overflowed at the end of February.
Local authorities report that as of March 3, almost 7,500 evacuees are living in shelters in Rio Branco, the state capital, alone, with floods reported in 53 districts; over 24,000 buildings have been affected.
On February 27, the WHO-affiliated Pan American Health Organization reported that a "State of Public Calamity" had been declared in the Departments of Acre, Amazon, and Santa Catarina as a result of the rise of the Acre River, which is reported to have reached a level of more than 18 meters, far surpassing its usual depth; local authorities have said that in some areas the river is up to 14 meters above its usual level....

Whole article see link above.


Rio Branco, in the utter west of Brazil.

Flooding everywhere in the world - except those parts which are in severe drought, sigh.
Have a good night everyone, stay safe!
Quoting washingtonian115:
7.5 inches here...I'm not ready to call this "The finale act" as the models do show cold returning with another low originating from the gulf in 10 days.It could do anything but "Its not over until its over".I'm sure winter has over stayed his welcome here in the D.C area for many folks.


I was in your area either last April or 2 April's ago and a storm hit with about 3". Still have time for another event.






so.... this would be a pretty bad disaster
As a better good night post than all those flooding news:


Current (saved) webcam photo from Innichen/Northern Italy/Alps in moonlight. Source.
Quoting weatherbro:
This ones definitely got Mokiki written all over it!





you are so wrong
Why isn't this a modoki el nino? From what I've been reading, is that a pool of warmer water will eventually migrate more westward into the central Pacific, and the eastern Pacific will cool resulting in a modoki el nino. This may happen during the late spring to early summer.
Quoting 772. Climate175:

Winter is not over just yet, more snow coming.
Hopefully that will put Boston over the hump, 1.9 inches to go.
Will never hear the end of this El Nino. Seems the planets have finally aligned.
6 1/2" of snow in Federal Hill.

Check out the Inner Harbor webcam. Harbor completely frozen.

Current window temperature 22.6 F
Hope the Anton storm isn't like Anton Jackson.
Someone here has to know who Anton Jackson was :P

Quoting 717. luvtogolf:



As you can tell by my name, I spend a lot of time on the course. Because of that, I am very keen to the water levels of the lakes. This year we are in good shape. I've seen them higher and have certainly seen them lower. The real test with our water levels is the next 90 days. It's getting hotter and I've seen the lakes almost dry up come May. We won't be that bad this year because as I said, they are all full. The fire ants have exploded over the past month. Not sure if is that we did not again have a freeze or not. All I know is that they are all over the courses.

ANTS! In unusual places? The original ant report came from LaDobeLady in Houma reporting unprecedented ant mounds on a soccer field, and that was before Katrina even passed over Florida in mid-August 2005. They're probably sensing the monsoon season, maybe this year they sense they need to dig bigger mounds. In any case it should all somehow provide an enlesss supply of doom scenarios....who can forget the great ECFL floods of May 2014 forecast. FORE! and mulligan.
Quoting 799. Drakoen:

Will never hear the end of this El Nino. Seems the planets have finally aligned.
Hey if I keep saying the red skins will win the super bowl for however long it takes and they eventually win can I claim I was right? :D.

Luvgolf yeah it Snow until April last year.
Our puppies liked being outside in the 75 degree weather today. They tried out some puppy food for the first time.
Once it started to rain I came back in and tried some bacon wrapped chicken breast with provolone for the first time :P

Views of the food and the weather were overall seemingly positive :)
Just saw this post. I was stationed At Keesler AFB in Biloxi in 1979, the tenth year anniversary of Camille. Everyone reporting to the base was required to watch local TV footage concerning the Richilieu apartments and the "hurricane party" that according to this, never happened. THe footage shown was from the emergency response folks and included footage taken during their (and the sheriff's department) efforts to get folks to evacuate to include asking individuals who refused to evacuate the names of their next of kin. I'm not buying that it "never happened"....

Made it to 74.9F, gonna be a nice Weekend for a change....
Quoting 806. PedleyCA:


Made it to 74.9F, gonna be a nice Weekend for a change....

Don't forget we still need the rain, friend. :^)
Quoting 794. nwobilderburg:



img
so.... this would be a pretty bad disaster

I SERIOUSLY doubt it will be the apocalyptic storm the GFS predicts, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.
Quoting definer:
Just saw this post. I was stationed At Keesler AFB in Biloxi in 1979, the tenth year anniversary of Camille. Everyone reporting to the base was required to watch local TV footage concerning the Richilieu apartments and the "hurricane party" that according to this, never happened. THe footage shown was from the emergency response folks and included footage taken during their (and the sheriff's department) efforts to get folks to evacuate to include asking individuals who refused to evacuate the names of their next of kin. I'm not buying that it "never happened"....
It happened, in that people decided to ride out the storm there. What didn't happen is the hurricane party as described by Mary Ann Gerlach. Eight people died at the Richelieu, not 32 as was originally reported. Gerlach continued to repeat the story to any organization that would pay her until she as arrested, tried, and convicted for murdering her 11th husband. Even the most gullible started getting the picture by then.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Check out some of the crazy cold lows forecast tonight in the lowlands of central Kentucky.
It's 17 degrees there now with a dewpoint of 7. It's going to be a real stretch for it to get down to -8 tonight. Still way colder than I'd want to be. Going to the road to get the mail at 38 degrees half kills me.
Quoting sar2401:
It's 17 degrees ther now with a dewpoint of 7. It's going to be a real stretch for it to get down to -8 tonight. Still way colder than I'd want to be. Going to the road to get the mail at 38 degrees half kills me.
A couple hours ago the forecast low was -19.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Rounding up oil slicks: A quick way to contain oil spills with lightweight booms


!!! Brain evolution and disease: A Faustian bargain

Silicon Valley gets a taste for food: Tech startups are moving into the food business to make sustainable versions of meat and dairy products from plants


*** Demonstration of a GOES-R Satellite Convective Toolkit to "Bridge the Gap" Between Severe Weather Watches and Warnings: An Example from the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak I think Cody will like this one.

The Price of Oil Is Down, So Why Is Production Still Going Up?


Bravo, Ringling Brothers, for Taking Elephants Out of Circuses


Nasa's Dawn probe set for Ceres arrival


*** Mars: The planet that lost an ocean's worth of water



* Breakthrough in energy harvesting could power 'life on Mars'



Sniffing out origins of methane: instrument identifies methane's origins in mines, deep-sea vents, and cows

*** Phthalates potentially alter levels of a pregnancy hormone that influences sex development



'Extinct' bird rediscovered: Last seen in 1941 I want the passenger pigeon back.

Nine steps to survive 'most explosive era of infrastructure expansion in human history' Titles like this make me think the author spent too much time in MBA courses.

!!! Space technology investigates large-scale changes to Africa's climate




Flood and drought risk to cities on rise even with no climate change Baltimore is featured in this. I was amused by a sentence in the article: "Although relatively small compared to what we can expect in Asia and Africa, in the U.S. the expansion of Houston and Miami metropolitan areas as well as the metropolitan area between Baltimore and New York is expected to increase their exposure to flooding." That would be 'Philadelphia'. ;)

Exxon settles New Jersey environmental lawsuit for $225 million

*** Hubble captures quadruple image of ancient exploding star




Can Republicans block Obama's clean energy plans?

*** Arctic sea ice could set an ominous new record this year

The GOP's climate change skepticism, in one groan-worthy video
I was 50 miles up the road at Camp Shelby on the middle weekend of our National Guard two week summer camp. That Sunday night was one heck of a night. We were in housing I'd call chicken house barracks. About midnight the first window blew out. The power had been out for quite a while at that point. I don't know but would guess there were 40-50 of us in each barrack. By the morning 5-6 windows had blown in. These were concrete block buildings about 80 feet long on a slab with windows all the way down both sides about 6 feet from the floor. A night I'll never forget.
This is interesting from WSI.

From Michael Ventrice

The Southern Oscillation Index could drop into the -3 to -4 sigma territory during the 11-15 day period.

HEADLINE: Our new teleconnection analyses are highlighting a large negative trend of the SOI during the 11-15 day period forecast from the GEFS and GEM ensembles. Interestingly, the GFS op is forecasting a -6 and -7 sigma on March 19 and March 20, respectively. -SOIs are often representative of an El Nino type atmosphere and the large-drop is likely a result of the combination between intraseasonal variability within the deep tropics and a strong tropical-extratropical interaction over the South Pacific.

BOTTOM LINE: A monthly SOI index is often associated with ENSO variability. A daily SOI index as discussed above can be impacted by a number of things (noise), and reading too much into valleys and peaks could be misleading at times. Nevertheless, with the high-res GFS op dipping down to -7 sigma at the tail of the 11-15 day period forecast would shatter the lowest ever SOI value in our archive (which happened to be set back in late May 1997, prior to the onset to one of the strongest El Nino’s ever observed). This run was clearly too aggressive with the -SOI though, where a more realistic outcome could be in the -3 to -4 sigma range. While just one particular index, the -SOI does favor for moderation across the lower 48 during the 6-15 day period forecast.




Andrew Freedman ✔ @afreedma

Calif. warns of "alarming" lack of H20 for upcoming dry season due to anemic mountain snow
http://mashable.com/2015/03/05/el-nino-too-late-ca lifornia-drought/ … pic.twitter.com/szNdoOxiKS
Quoting 808. Huracan94:


I SERIOUSLY doubt it will be the apocalyptic storm the GFS predicts, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.
From far sight it looks like it says 672 mb. Had to zoom in and put my glasses on. By the way is that the island of Fiji?
Quoting 818. GTstormChaserCaleb:

From far sight it looks like it says 672 mb. Had to zoom in and put my glasses on. By the way is that the island of Fiji?

New Caledonia, home to 268,767 people via the 2014 census.
Quoting Huracan94:

I SERIOUSLY doubt it will be the apocalyptic storm the GFS predicts, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.


Indeed. The 00z GFS is coming in and has already substantially backed off that solution and is significantly farther to the East. Still likely to be an extremely potent storm, but not the strongest ever recorded.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

New Caledonia, home to 268,767 people via the 2014 census.
And my favorite place on earth.
Just posted a new blog entry about the el nino and our potential cyclone Pam. GFS shifted it rather far to the west and recurves it right over New Caledonia.
Quoting 820. CybrTeddy:



Indeed. The 00z GFS is coming in and has already substantially backed off that solution and is significantly farther to the East. Still likely to be an extremely potent storm, but not the strongest ever recorded.





My blog showed the 18z run but i thought the 00z hadn't come in yet because i checked it 20 minutes ago.

Quoting 801. JrWeathermanFL:

Hope the Anton storm isn't like Anton Jackson.
Someone here has to know who Anton Jackson was :P


I know who Anton LaVey is. That's sure to get a rise out of people. XD
Why are self-improvement journeys always so hard? I'm in the process of coming off as less attention-seeking; it isn't because I really care if I offend the general populace (I still think people are too easily offended), but because nobody likes an attention-whore (rightfully), including myself. You won't see me apologizing for the off-the-wall stuff I say that's considered socially disgraceful because that's me and I'll never apologize for being me. But I'm going to try to do those things in ways that aren't so attention-seeking from now on.

Off-topic post, btw, but nah. I don't care. Neither should anyone else. I'm being sincere for once, so you guys oughtta savor it.


Bald eagle still nesting fervently despite neck deep snow. Taken in Hanover, PA.
Quoting 812. BaltimoreBrian:



Flood and drought risk to cities on rise even with no climate change Baltimore is featured in this. I was amused by a sentence in the article: "Although relatively small compared to what we can expect in Asia and Africa, in the U.S. the expansion of Houston and Miami metropolitan areas as well as the metropolitan area between Baltimore and New York is expected to increase their exposure to flooding." That would be 'Philadelphia'. ;)






I already knew that we don't actually exist. When traveling north on I-95 in Maryland, the control city beyond Baltimore says New York, and I don't think the distance to Philly is ever even given until you reach Delaware.
Quoting 827. wxgeek723:








I already knew that we don't actually exist. When traveling north on I-95 in Maryland, the control city north of Baltimore says New York, and I don't think the distance to Philly is ever even given until you reach Delaware.




PS your blog is on the currently active list.
830. wxmod
Geoengineering as photographed from MODIS satellite today, over the Pacific Ocean.

832. wxmod
The making of the California drought. MODIS satellite photo today. Oregon

By no means is it a done deal or even a real likelihood at the moment, especially considering that this is the GEM, but if this were to verify for the mid-atlantic especially with that setup(blocking high to the north)?..............

834. SLU
Quoting 832. wxmod:

The making of the California drought. MODIS satellite photo today. Oregon




And also the making of the kink in the jet stream causing the bitter cold in the east.
Quoting 744. TropicalAnalystwx13:

What a cold front. The temperature here was 74F at 4pm, and it has since fallen to 41F with wind gusts over 40 mph.


Out here in the Lahontan Valley we call that "March." :)
836. SLU
Quoting 830. wxmod:

Geoengineering as photographed from MODIS satellite today, over the Pacific Ocean.




When mother nature retaliates the consequences of weather tampering could be devastating.
Quoting 769. TropicalAnalystwx13:

WSI's Atmospheric ENSO Index, which was indicating El Nino conditions through last spring, summer, and the first part of winter, has since fallen to cool Neutral territory as the CPC declares El Nino. Go figure.



They must base their observations off of Nino region 1+2 because 3.4 is still cooking...
A late night blog from me.

It took me four hours for this blog, but if you're interested, my 2015 Hurricane Outlook is done.
2015 Hurricane Season : March Outlook

The longest blog I've ever put together.
Record low temperatures, record snow depths, and a persistent winter. Global warming... Wait till next winter, and the winter after that and so on... Forgive me for the lack of scientific evidence in this post, just noticed the lack of speculation about the Ice Age and polar shifts.


Quoting 832. wxmod:

The making of the California drought. MODIS satellite photo today. Oregon




how do contrails cause the jet stream to move 1000's of miles... i dont see how this has anything to do with the drought
Quoting 806. PedleyCA:


Made it to 74.9F, gonna be a nice Weekend for a change....


I think a nice warm weekend works well for us PED.....Got deluged by California standards the last 2 weekends......last weekend got 2.24" rain and the weekend before got 1.10".......it's looking GREEN in them thar hills around here.
Quoting 840. JayShoes:

Record low temperatures, record snow depths, and a persistent winter. Global warming... Wait till next winter, and the winter after that and so on... Forgive me for the lack of scientific evidence in this post, just noticed the lack of speculation about the Ice Age and polar shifts.





I can quickly narrow down which part of the world you're in, as the planet has been running record warm overall lately, and some locations, such as Russia and parts of the US, just had their record warmest winter.
844. vis0
Need to rest, uploading as you read should be processed by 7AM.
CREDIT:: NOAA + Colorado State Edu. (though the joining of the western & eastern conus is not a public Colorado State Edu.product.)
SUBJECT:: a long plume of moisture stretching at its longest from south of Baja California to offshore of the NE of the USofA.
D&T:: on animation, though in being joined together the western CONUS is ~15mins early.
http://youtu.be/GVQ6Dr6GOSc (600x312 as is below)

Good morning,

9 degrees in our area of Silver Spring, MD. Final snow total at this location was 7 3/8". The best thing is that the driveway is clear.
Quoting 801. JrWeathermanFL:

Hope the Anton storm isn't like Anton Jackson.
Someone here has to know who Anton Jackson was :P




Do you mean the secret love child of the jackson 5 and host of "this ole box"?
Unless there is a substantial burst of sea ice formation in the next week or two, it looks like a record low maximum for Arctic sea ice will occur this year, beating the previous record set in March 2011


Arctic Journal: February ice growth again close to record low

Washington Post: Arctic sea ice could set an ominous new record
Quoting 769. TropicalAnalystwx13:

WSI's Atmospheric ENSO Index, which was indicating El Nino conditions through last spring, summer, and the first part of winter, has since fallen to cool Neutral territory as the CPC declares El Nino. Go figure.


Looks like a short lived weak Nino.
Quoting JayShoes:
Record low temperatures, record snow depths, and a persistent winter. Global warming... Wait till next winter, and the winter after that and so on... Forgive me for the lack of scientific evidence in this post, just noticed the lack of speculation about the Ice Age and polar shifts.


You've noticed the "lack of speculation about the Ice Age" on this forum for the same reason you've probably noticed a lack of speculation about what candy the Easter Bunny may bring this year. Which is to say, both are mythical beings, and the arrival of either one should not be expected anytime soon...
851. yoboi
Quoting 850. Neapolitan:

You've noticed the "lack of speculation about the Ice Age" on this forum for the same reason you've probably noticed a lack of speculation about what candy the Easter Bunny may bring this year. Which is to say, both are mythical beings, and the arrival of either one should not be expected anytime soon...


Why is it that you think warming is a bad thing??? With warmer temps we have a record population.....Produce more global crop yields....With an ice age we would have mass extinction....Why advocate for such an event???
Quoting 847. wartsttocs:



Do you mean the secret love child of the jackson 5 and host of "this ole box"?


That's the one.
Quoting 848. guygee:

Unless there is a substantial burst of sea ice formation in the next week or two, it looks like a record low maximum for Arctic sea ice will occur this year, beating the previous record set in March 2011


Arctic Journal: February ice growth again close to record low

Washington Post: Arctic sea ice could set an ominous new record
Hi, how far back do those records go?
Quoting 851. yoboi:



Why is it that you think warming is a bad thing??? With warmer temps we have a record population.....Produce more global crop yields....With an ice age we would have mass extinction....Why advocate for such an event???


The warming so far hasn't been too bad. It's continued warming in the future that would become a more significant problem. You can expect global crop yields to start to decline as warming continues.
Good morning with some more weird news of the impacts of windstrom Anton/Reja in the Mediterranean:


Google translator: Abruzzo: bad weather causes the explosion of a gas pipeline in Pineto - Conduct of gas caught fire in the hamlet of Mutignano in the town of Pineto (Teramo). The landslide due to heavy rains yesterday caused the failure of a high voltage pylon that was upon a conduct of natural gas. Three explosions have triggered a fire. The flames, several meters high, are visible from the highway. Some people were injured, but there was no fatality. Source.

Skiers in cable car drama amid Italy storms
The Local (Italy) Published: 06 Mar 2015 08:17 GMT+01:00
Around 200 holiday skiers in the Italian Dolomites were winched to safety on Thursday after getting stranded in cable car cabins buffeted by 130km an hour winds. ...
BBC video: Helicopter rescue after skiers are stranded on cable car, 6 March 2015 Last updated at 07:03 GMT

Big Storm Hits Italy with Force (PHOTOS)
TWC, By Chris Dolce, Published Mar 5 2015 11:05 AM EST

No spring yet for the mountains in central Italy:

Montemonaco, Central Italy.

Balkans Remain Paralyzed by Storms and Strong Winds
World » SOUTHEAST EUROPE | March 6, 2015, Friday // 09:47
The Reya Cyclone has taken over the Balkans causing prolific snowfalls, strong winds and low temperatures in a number of regions.
Code red has been issued for Adriatic countries and the Eastern parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina on account of the imminent dangerous storms that have the potential to cause severe damages.
A storm followed by prolific rain and strong winds has paralyzed Croatia. Seventy liters per square meter have already been measured in Dubrovnik. A number of electricity problems were caused as a result.
The Firefighting Services in the Croatian city of Zadar have been notified of a number of fallen trees and broken electricity wires soon after midnight.
Serbia has also been affected by the snow, with the cover reaching as high as 30 centimeters. Parts of the country with cut electric supplies, including the complete cut off in several villages in the Zlatibor area.
The cyclone moving from the Adriatic countries to the southern parts of the Balkan peninsula will affect Montenegro as well.
According to the prognoses made by the meteorology services on the Balkans, the storms will continue throughout the weekend.


Meanwhile in Germany they're telling us to start the BBQ season ;-) My place near Frankfurt (Celsius):
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi, how far back do those records go?
The satellite record goes back to 1979. But tons of proxy evidence suggest that the Arctic sea ice has not been this low in at least 8,000 years, and possibly far longer.

It's in really, terribly, horribly bad shape.
Quoting 814. StormTrackerScott:

This is interesting from WSI.

From Michael Ventrice

The Southern Oscillation Index could drop into the -3 to -4 sigma territory during the 11-15 day period.

HEADLINE: Our new teleconnection analyses are highlighting a large negative trend of the SOI during the 11-15 day period forecast from the GEFS and GEM ensembles. Interestingly, the GFS op is forecasting a -6 and -7 sigma on March 19 and March 20, respectively. -SOIs are often representative of an El Nino type atmosphere and the large-drop is likely a result of the combination between intraseasonal variability within the deep tropics and a strong tropical-extratropical interaction over the South Pacific.

BOTTOM LINE: A monthly SOI index is often associated with ENSO variability. A daily SOI index as discussed above can be impacted by a number of things (noise), and reading too much into valleys and peaks could be misleading at times. Nevertheless, with the high-res GFS op dipping down to -7 sigma at the tail of the 11-15 day period forecast would shatter the lowest ever SOI value in our archive (which happened to be set back in late May 1997, prior to the onset to one of the strongest El Nino%u2019s ever observed). This run was clearly too aggressive with the -SOI though, where a more realistic outcome could be in the -3 to -4 sigma range. While just one particular index, the -SOI does favor for moderation across the lower 48 during the 6-15 day period forecast.




Hi, this looks lie a Modoki Nino, although a weak one and should have very little effect on the upcoming hurricane season. I think a cold AMO phase might have more of an effect than this current weak Nino. Scott, go to JB's site and check out his current take on this Nino. I have been telling you for weeks if this was declared an El-Nino it would be a weak Modoki, you just need to read between the lines and not put much faith in the models. Most of the models can't get a 3 day forecast right much less one weeks or months out.
Quoting 853. NativeSun:

Hi, how far back do those records go?


Arctic sea ice reconstruction from Kinnard et al. 2011:



Quoting 855. barbamz:

Abruzzo: bad weather causes the explosion of a gas pipeline in Pineto


Noooooo! Some of favorite wines come from Abruzzo! ;)
Quoting 851. yoboi:



Why is it that you think warming is a bad thing??? With warmer temps we have a record population.....Produce more global crop yields....With an ice age we would have mass extinction....Why advocate for such an event???


Because it is bad, because your statements are falsehoods. :



Quoting TylerStanfield:

They must base their observations off of Nino region 1+2 because 3.4 is still cooking...

It's an /Atmospheric/ ENSO Index. Just because waters are warm doesn't necessarily mean the atmosphere is cooperating.
862. yoboi
Quoting 858. Naga5000:



Arctic sea ice reconstruction from Kinnard et al. 2011:







What about Global ice????
Quoting 862. yoboi:




What about Global ice????


You still don't know why there is a difference between land surrounded by ocean and ocean surrounded by land. Please go read a book and stop bothering people who actually care to try and understand climate.
Quoting 859. LongIslandBeaches:



Noooooo! Some of favorite wines come from Abruzzo! ;)

Yeah, let's hope that the vines made it :-)

The Wines of Abruzzo
865. yoboi
Quoting 860. Naga5000:



Because it is bad, because your statements are falsehoods. :






Cool naga ....a chart with projections....Let's look at facts....Record population....increase with global crop yields.....Sure we have droughts and floods...Show me a time when we did not have such weather....
Quoting 865. yoboi:



Cool naga ....a chart with projections....Let's look at facts....Record population....increase with global crop yields.....Sure we have droughts and floods...Show me a time when we did not have such weather....


Good comeback, I see you've attempted to refute the scientific literature with stupidity. Nice job.

Edit: You've long had the chance to learn and understand this stuff from Dr. Rood's blog and other sources shown to you. You choose to deny science and disrupt conversation. A sourced and cited chart from the IPCC, which is an aggregator of scientific literature, not a creator, stands well above your opinion on the matter that is plagiarized from pseudo-science blog talking points anyhow.
Quoting 864. barbamz:


Yeah, let's hope that the vines made it :-)


From your link:

In parts of Abruzzo, most notably in the low hills of the northern province of Teramo, Montepulciano grapes become a red wine of irresistible character: full-bodied, robust, with a good capacity to age. The grape responsible for Montepulciano d'Abruzzo DOC wine originated in the Peligna valley and has been cultivated locally for more than two hundred years.

Montepulciano d'Abruzzo is characterized by its intense ruby and violet hues and a concentrated perfume. It marries well with red meats, wild game and mature cheeses - conveniently the specialties of this enchanting region. After a limited fermentation, Moltepulciano d'Abruzzo grapes produce a more transparent cherry red wine called Cerasuolo, delicately fruity, fine and intense with a dry, harmonious palate. It is best paired to pasta dishes, white meat and fish entrees, including baccal%uFFFD (dried, salted Cod).


If one is enamored with Italian reds, then I must recommend the Zaccagnini Montepulciano D'Abruzzo (it retails for ~$15 USD). Easily identifiable because they cut off a small portion of the vine and tie it to the bottle. Fantastic value.

To keep this post focused on weather, harsh and stormy winters are not necessarily a bad thing for grape growing, provided that hot, dry summers give the fruit enough time to ripen on the vine.

Enjoy your weather with a nice rich glass of Montepulciano. ;)
Quoting 857. NativeSun:

Hi, this looks lie a Modoki Nino, although a weak one and should have very little effect on the upcoming hurricane season. I think a cold AMO phase might have more of an effect than this current weak Nino. Scott, go to JB's site and check out his current take on this Nino. I have been telling you for weeks if this was declared an El-Nino it would be a weak Modoki, you just need to read between the lines and not put much faith in the models. Most of the models can't get a 3 day forecast right much less one weeks or months out.


It is modoki now yes but in about 2 months that is about the time this warm pool begins to fully surface across Nino 1&2 and this warm pool could be enough to propel us to moderate El-Nino this summer then comes another warm pool which could propel us into Strong El-Nino come October or November.


Big warm pool just beneath the surface and NOAA brings up a great point along with Michael Ventrice and that is last year we had a record warm pool but had La Nina sea surface anomalies which only got us to weak El-Nino, now we have El-Nino sea surface anomalies at or great than 0.5C so when this warm pool fully surface then we could very well go straight into Moderate El-Nino this Summer.


869. yoboi
Quoting 866. Naga5000:



Good comeback, I see you've attempted to refute the scientific literature with stupidity. Nice job.


Current World Population

7,299,390,645

Check out the site the population was still increasing when I copied the numbers.....

Link
Quoting 861. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's an /Atmospheric/ ENSO Index. Just because waters are warm doesn't necessarily mean the atmosphere is cooperating.


According to Michael Ventrice that's about to change.

If the GFS pans out then the SOI would get to levels not seen since 1997 doesn't mean this verify but a solid -3 to -4 sigma seems likely.

This explains why the models are trending so wet starting next week across the Southern US and this is expected to continue it appears. Not good for those wanting to storm chase across Tornado Alley going into April.

From Michael Ventrice

Negative SOI states during the month of March are often correlated with an El Nino type atmosphere (split flow over the U.S.), with above average temperatures favored across the northern tier of the U.S., especially the Northwest, and below average temperatures across the South.



March/April/May


Quoting 867. LongIslandBeaches:


...To keep this post focused on weather, harsh and stormy winters are not necessarily a bad thing for grape growing, provided that hot, dry summers give the fruit enough time to ripen on the vine. ...


Ah yes, this was exactly the problem last year:
Italian wine faces worst grape harvest in half a century: Unusually wet spring and summer sees Italian vintners' expected production slip 15 per cent - falling behind France

2014 Vintage Report: Italy Wine Harvest: Up and down "the Boot," winemakers from Piedmont to Tuscany to Sicily report a challenging summer, Posted: November 20, 2014

We are going to spend our vacations in storm and rain stricken Tuscany this year - afterwards I'll report to you first hand (or better: first mouth) about the qualities of the new wines ;-)
Some light rain in spots across Orlando this morning. Just enough to wet the streets.

Good morning, WU - quite chilly here in Baton Rouge, 26F, wind chill 18F. New Orleans had a record high of 85 two days ago, and now, there's this:

Record Report
Statement as of 06:25 am CST on March 6, 2015

... Record low temperature tied at New Orleans International
Airport...

A record low temperature of 31 degrees was tied at New Orleans
International Airport this morning. This ties the old record of 31
set in 1960. Updated information will be sent with the afternoon
climate summary.
I hope this event is not as bad as the '82-'83 event. Tropical activity wise it was a good year for those not wanting to see an uptick in activity, however it led to some devastating droughts. There are 3 places in this world that I can name where droughts have occurred or is ongoing in this century. 1) California drought caused by the RRR. 2) Brazil drought. 3) Texas drought caused by the TDR.




even though maps say we are only slightly above normal rainfall that does not tell the whole story. we've had so many drizzle days this and last half of last yr that the water has not evaporated. we got another drizzle day today. locally the retention ponds are full. going to be watching thunderstorm season and hurricane season closely. e cen florida.
So .... has the latest warming episode of the Pacific waters "officially" been declared a weak El Nino yet, or do we have to wait another month or two?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Some light rain in spots across Orlando this morning. Just enough to wet the streets.



A pretty nice band of clouds across central Florida this morning.
Quoting 874. LAbonbon:

Good morning, WU - quite chilly here in Baton Rouge, 26F, wind chill 18F. New Orleans had a record high of 85 two days ago, and now, there's this:

Record Report
Statement as of 06:25 am CST on March 6, 2015

... Record low temperature tied at New Orleans International
Airport...

A record low temperature of 31 degrees was tied at New Orleans
International Airport this morning. This ties the old record of 31
set in 1960. Updated information will be sent with the afternoon
climate summary.

Hello Bon..We had some below zero temps around this morning...I do not believe they were forecast to go that low.
Quoting 875. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I hope this event is not as bad as the '82-'83 event. Tropical activity wise it was a good year for those not wanting to see an uptick in activity, however it led to some devastating droughts. There are 3 places in this world that I can name where droughts have occurred or is ongoing in this century. 1) California drought caused by the RRR. 2) Brazil drought. 3) Texas drought caused by the TDR.







IMO I think along the lines of 2009/2010. The 2009 hurricane season was interesting as I had fun tracking IDA which occurred in November with a cat.1 in the Gulf Also we had Claudette which formed from a MCS complex that moved off Tampa and developed into a Tropical Storm. That was cool too!
Quoting 874. LAbonbon:

Good morning, WU - quite chilly here in Baton Rouge, 26F, wind chill 18F. New Orleans had a record high of 85 two days ago, and now, there's this:

Record Report
Statement as of 06:25 am CST on March 6, 2015

... Record low temperature tied at New Orleans International
Airport...

A record low temperature of 31 degrees was tied at New Orleans
International Airport this morning. This ties the old record of 31
set in 1960. Updated information will be sent with the afternoon
climate summary.



Good morning! Tell New Orleans to get it's act together. I'm not dealing with freezing temperatures when I'm there at the end of the month. :)
Quoting 876. islander101010:

even though maps say we are only slightly above normal rainfall that does not tell the whole story. we've had so many drizzle days this and last half of last yr that the water has not evaporated. we got another drizzle day today. locally the retention ponds are full. going to be watching thunderstorm season and hurricane season closely. e cen florida.


Yeah if you don't live here then you wouldn't know but yes water levels are very high for this time of year I proved to the blog the yes some areas got 30" of rain the last 6 months with some locations hitting 37". All of this is easy to find on the NWS site in Melbourne just go to the climate section.
Quoting 877. Stormwatch247:

So .... has the latest warming episode of the Pacific waters "officially" been declared a weak El Nino yet, or do we have to wait another month or two?


It was officially declared yesterday at 9am
Quoting 872. barbamz:


Ah yes, this was exactly the problem last year:
Italian wine faces worst grape harvest in half a century: Unusually wet spring and summer sees Italian vintners' expected production slip 15 per cent - falling behind France

2014 Vintage Report: Italy Wine Harvest: Up and down "the Boot," winemakers from Piedmont to Tuscany to Sicily report a challenging summer, Posted: November 20, 2014

We are going to spend our vacations in storm and rain stricken Tuscany this year - afterwards I'll report to you first hand (or better: first mouth) about the qualities of the new wines ;-)


Hey that Croatia storm was vicious that you posted yesterday.
Quoting 858. Naga5000:



Arctic sea ice reconstruction from Kinnard et al. 2011:





To complete the Kinnard et al graph, find something between '5' and '6' on the vertical.
acc/ to the model nww3 i this upcoming cyclone is beginning itself in very low latitudes
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
OVERNIGHT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVER OUTER WATERS SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
700 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015

(snipped all but long term discussion)

Previous discussion... /issued 341 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015/

Long term...

European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in fairly decent agreement on the large scale
upper pattern for much of next week...but that does not really
help much in the day to day portion of the forecast. Upper
troughing over Texas will produce south to southwest upper flow
over our area. This will be a rather moist flow with precipitable
water values in the 1.50-1.75 range for much of next week.
Impulses will rotate through the base of the trough and move across
our area. This will produce periods of rain for much of the week.
Timing of individual impulses this far out is rarely consistent
in the medium range models. Will take a blended approach for now
regarding probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast...with the expectation of being able to
refine timing in later packages. Expect little...if any...sunshine
during the work week next week. Rain amounts during the week next
week are likely to total several inches for much of the area
.

Will go with a blend on temperature forecasts...trending toward
the warmer readings until we can refine individual features.
Temperatures will average somewhat below normal...but not the
abnormally cold weather we are currently seeing. No signs of
additional cold snaps through 10 days.
Quoting 889. LAbonbon:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
700 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015

(snipped all but long term discussion)

Previous discussion... /issued 341 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015/

Long term...

European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in fairly decent agreement on the large scale
upper pattern for much of next week...but that does not really
help much in the day to day portion of the forecast. Upper
troughing over Texas will produce south to southwest upper flow
over our area. This will be a rather moist flow with precipitable
water values in the 1.50-1.75 range for much of next week.
Impulses will rotate through the base of the trough and move across
our area. This will produce periods of rain for much of the week.
Timing of individual impulses this far out is rarely consistent
in the medium range models. Will take a blended approach for now
regarding probability of precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast...with the expectation of being able to
refine timing in later packages. Expect little...if any...sunshine
during the work week next week. Rain amounts during the week next
week are likely to total several inches for much of the area
.

Will go with a blend on temperature forecasts...trending toward
the warmer readings until we can refine individual features.
Temperatures will average somewhat below normal...but not the
abnormally cold weather we are currently seeing. No signs of
additional cold snaps through 10 days.



Looks very wet for much of the Gulf Coast going forward. This will likely rob any potential for getting severe weather going in the Plains with this type of set up as its getting to be that time of year already where we look to Tornado Alley for severe weather to break out.
Quoting 879. hydrus:

Hello Bon..We had some below zero temps around this morning...I do not believe they were forecast to go that low.

Yeah, it caught me off guard. Woke up really cold in the wee hours...had to add a sweatshirt to my pajamas :)

Quoting 881. Naga5000:



Good morning! Tell New Orleans to get it's act together. I'm not dealing with freezing temperatures when I'm there at the end of the month. :)

March and April are normally beautiful around here; many people say these are their favorite months here. I'm going out on a limb and predicting you won't be cold during your trip....
Quoting 868. StormTrackerScott:



It is modoki now yes but in about 2 months that is about the time this warm pool begins to fully surface across Nino 1&2 and this warm pool could be enough to propel us to moderate El-Nino this summer then comes another warm pool which could propel us into Strong El-Nino come October or November.


Big warm pool just beneath the surface and NOAA brings up a great point along with Michael Ventrice and that is last year we had a record warm pool but had La Nina sea surface anomalies which only got us to weak El-Nino, now we have El-Nino sea surface anomalies at or great than 0.5C so when this warm pool fully surface then we could very well go straight into Moderate El-Nino this Summer.



Scott, don't forget, in 2 months the rest of the Pacific Ocean will be a lot warmer. I think I will trust JB more than some bloggers on here for forecasting this Nino event. It's not just about a warm pool that is projected by models to be somewhere in 2 months. Why do you put so much trust in these models that are so bad in predicting Nino's and their strength, regardless this will be a weak Modoki Nino, but I will wait till the summer to see what happens and see who's amateur forecast is right.
The GFS remains steadfast in its depiction of a sub-880 millibar tropical cyclone in the Southwest Pacific next week. If this comes to fruition, it is a huge win for the model which first picked up the system when it was 15 days out. At this point, though, I think most of us can agree that the GFS is being a little too bullish with regard to intensity; the 0z ECMWF indicated a peak of 938 millibars.

In addition to this system, large-scale upward motion courtesy of a developing upward MJO pulse should offer several chances for tropical cyclogenesis across the basin over the next two weeks. Fun times.

Quoting 862. yoboi:




What about Global ice????
Tropical ice is minimal -- pretty much limited to mixed drinks.
Quoting 890. StormTrackerScott:



Looks very wet for much of the Gulf Coast going forward. This will likely rob any potential for getting severe weather going in the Plains with this type of set up as its getting to be that time of year already where we look to Tornado Alley for severe weather to break out.

Hmmm...what about Dixie Alley? How will that be affected...or will it?

(This is a serious question, if anyone knows the answer. I don't know much about what could aid, or 'suppress' severe weather that leads to tornado formation.)
Quoting 882. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah if you don't live here then you wouldn't know but yes water levels are very high for this time of year I proved to the blog the yes some areas got 30" of rain the last 6 months with some locations hitting 37". All of this is easy to find on the NWS site in Melbourne just go to the climate section.
Hopefully all this rain will penetrate into the underground aquifers and help with all your sink hole problems you have in that part of the state.
897. jpsb
Quoting 843. DCSwithunderscores:



I can quickly narrow down which part of the world you're in, as the planet has been running record warm overall lately, and some locations, such as Russia and parts of the US, just had their record warmest winter.


Quoting 895. LAbonbon:


Hmmm...what about Dixie Alley? How will that be affected...or will it?

(This is a serious question, if anyone knows the answer. I don't know much about what could aid, or 'suppress' severe weather that leads to tornado formation.)


In the near term the biggest issue will be heavy rains across the Gulf Coast with some isolated severe but if I were to say I think the best chance of any severe weather the next 30 days would be across the Gulf Coast states so yes Dixie Alley or atleast the southern parts will be at play. Any severe weather across the Plains may come later in April.
Quoting 896. NativeSun:

Hopefully all this rain will penetrate into the underground aquifers and help with all your sink hole problems you have in that part of the state.


Water penetrating through the limestone into underground aquifers is what causes the sinkholes to form in the first place. If it never rained in Florida there would be no sinkholes.
900. jpsb
Quoting 848. guygee:

Unless there is a substantial burst of sea ice formation in the next week or two, it looks like a record low maximum for Arctic sea ice will occur this year, beating the previous record set in March 2011



Cryosphere Today disagrees. If fact there is more ice than this time last year.
what jb's full wunderblog name?
Another look back at 1969's Cat 5 Hurricane Camille:

Waveland, Bay St. Louis, Pass Christian, and Long Beach, Mississippi, were wiped out by Camille. 36 years later, the same location was again wiped out by CAT 3 Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

After Camille and Katrina, it seemed to take so many years for the Mississippi Coast to make a comeback. But, it was never the same ...... so many historical homes and buildings in BOTH hurricanes were reduced to slabs, just like the Richelieu Apartments. Whether the infamous hurricane party happened or not, it would not be wise to have a hurricane party - in a beachside building - when a CAT 5 hurricane is headed to the coast!

What amazes me the most is the resilience of the people who have continued to rebuild near the vulnerable coastline. Many of the newer homes and buildings are built on pilings - much higher than before. Most of the newer construction is now located - across the street from the beach, and farther inland. Katrina's storm surge pushed water inland up to 6 miles or more - it crossed Interstate I-10 in many areas!

Almost 10 years after Katrina, the Mississippi Coast is once again thriving, and the drive along coastal Hwy 90 is still beautiful!
Quoting 899. NickyTesla:



Water penetrating through the limestone into underground aquifers is what causes the sinkholes to form in the first place. If it never rained in Florida there would be no sinkholes.
I thought it was just the opposite, as the large population increase in you area lowers the ground water levels which open up air pockets underground and when the water level drops their is less upward force exerted on the limestone rocks causing them to collapse.
Quoting 855. barbamz:

Good morning with some more weird news of the impacts of windstrom Anton/Reja in the Mediterranean:


Google translator: Abruzzo: bad weather causes the explosion of a gas pipeline in Pineto - Conduct of gas caught fire in the hamlet of Mutignano in the town of Pineto (Teramo). The landslide due to heavy rains yesterday caused the failure of a high voltage pylon that was upon a conduct of natural gas. Three explosions have triggered a fire. The flames, several meters high, are visible from the highway. Some people were injured, but there was no fatality. Source.

Skiers in cable car drama amid Italy storms
The Local (Italy) Published: 06 Mar 2015 08:17 GMT+01:00
Around 200 holiday skiers in the Italian Dolomites were winched to safety on Thursday after getting stranded in cable car cabins buffeted by 130km an hour winds. ...
BBC video: Helicopter rescue after skiers are stranded on cable car, 6 March 2015 Last updated at 07:03 GMT

Big Storm Hits Italy with Force (PHOTOS)
TWC, By Chris Dolce, Published Mar 5 2015 11:05 AM EST

No spring yet for the mountains in central Italy:

Montemonaco, Central Italy.

Balkans Remain Paralyzed by Storms and Strong Winds
World » SOUTHEAST EUROPE | March 6, 2015, Friday // 09:47
The Reya Cyclone has taken over the Balkans causing prolific snowfalls, strong winds and low temperatures in a number of regions.
Code red has been issued for Adriatic countries and the Eastern parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina on account of the imminent dangerous storms that have the potential to cause severe damages.
A storm followed by prolific rain and strong winds has paralyzed Croatia. Seventy liters per square meter have already been measured in Dubrovnik. A number of electricity problems were caused as a result.
The Firefighting Services in the Croatian city of Zadar have been notified of a number of fallen trees and broken electricity wires soon after midnight.
Serbia has also been affected by the snow, with the cover reaching as high as 30 centimeters. Parts of the country with cut electric supplies, including the complete cut off in several villages in the Zlatibor area.
The cyclone moving from the Adriatic countries to the southern parts of the Balkan peninsula will affect Montenegro as well.
According to the prognoses made by the meteorology services on the Balkans, the storms will continue throughout the weekend.


Meanwhile in Germany they're telling us to start the BBQ season ;-) My place near Frankfurt (Celsius):



My family loved skiing in the Dolomites! Very nice area of Italy. It still has a strong architectural & feel of Austria, which governed the area before the borders were finally settled.
Quoting 901. hydrus:




This looks el nino-ish.
Quoting 902. tiggerhurricanes2001:

what jb's full wunderblog name?

My guess would be the most knowledgeable blogger on this website, look for the blogger with the best explanation of weather events.
Quoting 900. jpsb:


Cryosphere Today disagrees. If fact there is more ice than this time last year.


You pulled this exact same antic yesterday. It was explained to then exactly what it was that was being discussed. Yet here you are again pulling the same garbage. This has been stated over and over to you and yet every morning like clockwork you pull the same crap with this. Again we are talking about Arctic Ice EXTENT vs. AREA. these are two DIFFERENT definitions. Arctic Ice Extent encompasses a concentration of at minimum 15%. Area takes in consideration all values. What you posted takes into consideration ALL values of concentration. Including Ice that is less than 15%. Which means it's pretty thin and scattered... wink wink ;) :)



Here's the article clearly demonstrating this ..
March 4, 2015 - Arctic Sea Ice Extent Hits Record Low





Quoting 907. jpsb:



Arctic Ocean sea ice proxies generally suggest a reduction in sea ice during parts of the early and middle Holocene (∼6000–10,000 years BP) compared to present day conditions. This sea ice minimum has been attributed to the northern hemisphere Early Holocene Insolation Maximum (EHIM) associated with Earth's orbital cycles.


And that paper has exactly what to do with the amount of ice over the last ~1500 years or so? Or the current trends that we're observing? HINT: the conditions (insolation, orbital cycles) that produced the Holocene maximum 6-10 thousand years ago are not the conditions we are currently creating on our planet, and all indications are that instead of relatively gradual shifts that the orbital cycles produce, we're causing change on a human, rather than geologic timescale, which is likely to have cascading catastrophic consequences on environments, ecologies, and perhaps where it matters most to you: economies.
Quoting 907. jpsb:



Arctic Ocean sea ice proxies generally suggest a reduction in sea ice during parts of the early and middle Holocene (10,000 years BP) compared to present day conditions. This sea ice minimum has been attributed to the northern hemisphere Early Holocene Insolation Maximum (EHIM) associated with Earth's orbital cycles.



North Atlantic sediment cores show that the B%uFFFDlling%u2013Aller%uFFFDd period (c. 12,700%u201314,700 years BP) was a climatically unstable period in the northern high latitudes and we speculate that this instability may be linked to dual stability modes of the Arctic sea ice cover characterized by e.g. transitions between periods with and without perennial sea ice cover.


also known as the Younger Dryas Event.
912. jpsb
Quoting 908. NativeSun:

My guess would be the most knowledgeable blogger on this website, look for the blogger with the best explanation of weather events.


My guess is that JB does not post here.
913. bwi
Meanwhile, here's a link to some real science on arctic ice observations...
http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/03/03/on-thin -ice-combined-arctic-ice-observations-show-decades -of-loss/

One of the latest denier things, which really sort of surprises me, is to make a comment on a blog implying somebody is wrong about a global-warming thought or opinion, and then linking to a reputable source that proves the original commenter right! Amazing. The PR strategy seems to be that most people won't actually click through to the link and see it, and will just assume that the SP's counter was accurate. Amazing.

It's as if the unlabeled graphic approach is not working so well any more and maybe the new trick will hold off some people from understanding the science results for a while longer.
914. jpsb
Quoting 848. guygee:

Unless there is a substantial burst of sea ice formation in the next week or two, it looks like a record low maximum for Arctic sea ice will occur this year, beating the previous record set in March 2011




As I have already explained area is a better measure of sea ice then extent. Also you claimed record low maximum for Arctic sea ice. Not record low extent.
Quoting 913. bwi:

Meanwhile, here's a link to some real science on arctic ice observations...
http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/03/03/on-thin -ice-combined-arctic-ice-observations-show-decades -of-loss/

One of the latest denier things, which really sort of surprises me, is to make a comment on a blog implying somebody is wrong about a global-warming thought or opinion, and then linking to a reputable source that proves the original commenter right! Amazing. The PR strategy seems to be that most people won't actually click through to the link and see it, and will just assume that the SP's counter was accurate. Amazing.

It's as if the unlabeled graphic approach is not working so well any more and maybe the new trick will hold off some people from understanding the science results for a while longer.

That happens all the time. Pretty much if a denier is posting a link, it doesn't say what they think, or pretend to think. Some these people aren't actually stupid or illiterate seeming, so I can only surmise it, as you say, a strategy.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
Yesterday's 12Z GFS op dropped the SOI to -7.3 sigma yesterday late in 11-15d fcst!
Very icy roads out there from yesterday's storm. Landscape looks beautiful though.
Quoting 914. jpsb:



As I have already explained area is a better measure of sea ice then extent. Also you claimed record low maximum for Arctic sea ice. Not record low extent.


The maximum of the extent. The annual maximum and minimum are measures of the extent.
919. jpsb
Quoting 910. schistkicker:



And that paper has exactly what to do with the amount of ice over the last ~1500 years or so? Or the current trends that we're observing? HINT: the conditions (insolation, orbital cycles) that produced the Holocene maximum 6-10 thousand years ago are not the conditions we are currently creating on our planet, and all indications are that instead of relatively gradual shifts that the orbital cycles produce, we're causing change on a human, rather than geologic timescale, which is likely to have cascading catastrophic consequences on environments, ecologies, and perhaps where it matters most to you: economies.


Quoting 856. Neapolitan:

The satellite record goes back to 1979. But tons of proxy evidence suggest that the Arctic sea ice has not been this low in at least 8,000 years, and possibly far longer.

It's in really, terribly, horribly bad shape.
This is interesting article

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/fcf40cc64971496e91 d3059f2f7878f3/big-melt-antarcticas-retreating-ice -may-re-shape-earth
Quoting 913. bwi:

Meanwhile, here's a link to some real science on arctic ice observations...
http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/03/03/on-thin -ice-combined-arctic-ice-observations-show-decades -of-loss/

One of the latest denier things, which really sort of surprises me, is to make a comment on a blog implying somebody is wrong about a global-warming thought or opinion, and then linking to a reputable source that proves the original commenter right! Amazing. The PR strategy seems to be that most people won't actually click through to the link and see it, and will just assume that the SP's counter was accurate. Amazing.

It's as if the unlabeled graphic approach is not working so well any more and maybe the new trick will hold off some people from understanding the science results for a while longer.

I always mull over the posts to see what category they fall in. This is my own, very short list:

misinterpretation
disinformation
old science
bad sources

And, now, due to your insightful comment, 'misdirection' should now be added :)

On a serious note, though, I've seen recently where the linking is to a non-objective/partisan site, where the science article is 'interpreted'. The 'interpretation' is often misleading, but the posted views are what their readers infer, and they go on to post links to the misinterpretation.
Levi Cowan TropicalTidbits ·
Insane TC on GFS is assoc. w/ strong MJO event. GFS has been known to erroneously feedback TCs w/ large-scale waves.
Quoting 891. LAbonbon:


Yeah, it caught me off guard. Woke up really cold in the wee hours...had to add a sweatshirt to my pajamas :)


March and April are normally beautiful around here; many people say these are their favorite months here. I'm going out on a limb and predicting you won't be cold during your trip....



12F on my back porch this morning in College Park MD. Roads were a sheet of ice. But it's March and with full
sun any unshaded icy surface has melted out as of 10:30AM. Snow covered roads and sidewalks remain that way.

Next week will be spring here. 50s and 30s basically all week, maybe a little warmer. I am so looking forward to walking the dogs without ice hazards and snow hills and to just getting up and sending the kids off to school at
the expected times.

Quoting 827. wxgeek723:





I already knew that we don't actually exist. When traveling north on I-95 in Maryland, the control city beyond Baltimore says New York, and I don't think the distance to Philly is ever even given until you reach Delaware.


When I lived there Mercer county NJ was considered a suburb of New York. It's a miserable commute I'm told. I worked at GFDL a few miles north of my single rented room (Dues paying days, low salary.. tremendous learning experience)
Well, we've gotten a March freeze, my weather station shows it got to 30 degrees this morning after they were forecasting 34. Luckily, many plants are still dormant enough it won't do much damage.
Quoting 861. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's an /Atmospheric/ ENSO Index. Just because waters are warm doesn't necessarily mean the atmosphere is cooperating.

Well yes. I was just joking because Nino 1+2 is actually negative currently. But yes, it is quite ironic that WSI shows that the ENSO/Atmosphere are acting in more of a cool neutral phase when NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory which stated the atmosphere has finally shown some weak signs of a response from the warmer ENSO.
Quoting 843. DCSwithunderscores:



I can quickly narrow down which part of the world you're in, as the planet has been running record warm overall lately, and some locations, such as Russia and parts of the US, just had their record warmest winter.


The last time I saw serious speculation about a coming ice age was in the mid 1970s after it was pretty clear that several decades of rapid warming in the 1920s-40s, explained by known C02 physics, had reversed with cooling in the 50s, 60s and early 70s. This alarmed the popular press more than scientists but some (not a near unanimous set as we have now with AGW) scientists were on board with this too, particular Ried Bryson, at the University of Wisconsin. There was some speculation of snowblitz and rapid onset of dramatic cooling in 1976-77 with that awful winter but that turns out to have been a turning point in the PDO from cool east to warm east phase, a pattern correlated with more warming and paradoxically more severe Eastern U.S. winters.

It is left as an exercise for the student to find out what just happened to the PDO last year.
Well yes. I was just joking because Nino 1+2 is actually negative currently. But yes, it is quite ironic that WSI shows that the ENSO/Atmosphere are acting in more of a cool neutral phase when NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory which stated the atmosphere has finally shown some weak signs of a response from the warmer ENSO.

30 day running SOI value is almost at 1....also morel a nina/neutral than el nino
We've been in the 80s everyday so far this month, and the warm weather is expected to continue.

7 Day for Fort Myers

So I have a question relating to weather/storm modeling and forecasting:
When, say, the National Hurricane Center is modeling cyclogenesis (Is this even the correct term?), do they factor in sea surface temperatures for the area in question where a system might develop?
I mean, it seems to me the answer would be "of course", but could someone further enlighten me, please?
Heavy rain pounding the West Coast just north of Tampa.

Quoting 871. StormTrackerScott:

This explains why the models are trending so wet starting next week across the Southern US and this is expected to continue it appears. Not good for those wanting to storm chase across Tornado Alley going into April.

From Michael Ventrice

Negative SOI states during the month of March are often correlated with an El Nino type atmosphere (split flow over the U.S.), with above average temperatures favored across the northern tier of the U.S., especially the Northwest, and below average temperatures across the South.



March/April/May






The 2nd half of March will have to be awfully wet in Florida for this to be correct. The first week has gone by with almost no rain for most of the state, and almost no rain is expected for the next week, which will put most areas of the state in a notable deficit for March so far.

I'm not saying the 2nd half of March won't be wet, sure it could, but we can't say. Just reminding you that the CFS is not known for being particularly accurate.

Now, I hope it will be wet, I'm just saying, take the CFS with a grain of salt, because it's accuracy is not reliable.

this should make a few bloggers feel a little better........


But this is a weak, weird and late version of El Nino, so don't expect too many places to feel its effects, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the weather service's Climate Prediction Center. He said there may be a slight decrease in the number of Atlantic hurricanes this summer if the condition persists, but he also points out that 1992's devastating Hurricane Andrew occurred during an El Nino summer, so coastal residents shouldn't let their guard down.
Quoting 904. NativeSun:

I thought it was just the opposite, as the large population increase in you area lowers the ground water levels which open up air pockets underground and when the water level drops their is less upward force exerted on the limestone rocks causing them to collapse.


The rainwater is slightly acidic and finds its way through the underlying limestone along fractures. With time the water dissolves larger and larger gaps along the fractures, weakening the rock. Widened fractures may merge forming underground voids and eventually there is not enough strength in the overlying soils/rock to support themselves and they collapse into the void. Pumping groundwater and developing over the voids doesn't help, but if you didn't have rain to begin with you wouldn't have the mechanism to form the sinkholes.
Seems I miscalculated a little.I went to measure again.A few places I got 7.2 then in others 7.8 and 8 inches in another part.I got more 8 readings though.So i'm going with 8 inches for yesterday's event.Well I'm going off to brunch.See ya's.
Quoting NickyTesla:


The rainwater is slightly acidic and finds its way through the underlying limestone along fractures. With time the water dissolves larger and larger gaps along the fractures, weakening the rock. Widened fractures may merge forming underground voids and eventually there is not enough strength in the overlying soils/rock to support themselves and they collapse into the void. Pumping groundwater and developing over the voids doesn't help, but if you didn't have rain to begin with you wouldn't have the mechanism to form the sinkholes.


Related information
I did a lot of field work studying sink holes in south central Texas. My degree is in Geography.
Link
Quoting 920. fmbill:

This is interesting article

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/fcf40cc64971496e91 d3059f2f7878f3/big-melt-antarcticas-retreating-ice -may-re-shape-earth

It's best to use the 'link' button. When copying/pasting the provided address it didn't work. I found the article, but only after a google search.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TONIGHT...


ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009-GAZ120>126-142-062300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FZ.A.0001.150307T0800Z-150307T1400Z/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-CALHOUN-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-EARLY -
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTF ORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...K INSEY...
COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
HUDSON...BONIFAY...GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...
SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY... DAWSON...
ALBANY...LEESBURG...SMITHVILLE...DOUGLASVILLE...B LAKELY
419 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015 /319 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...28 TO 32 DEGREES GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM DE FUNIAK SPRINGS TO DOTHAN TO ALBANY.

* IMPACTS...THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD HARM SENSITIVE
VEGETATION AND ANY NEW GROWTH GIVEN THE RECENT MILD
TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

Quoting 939. LAbonbon:


It's best to use the 'link' button. When copying/pasting the provided address it didn't work. I found the article, but only after a google search.
here is the link......................Link
well what it said was the melting ice in antartica COULD raise the world wide sea levels 10 feet in a century or two.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good Afternoon. First day of the last several weeks that Conus is pretty much precip free (whether rain or snow) with the exception of a few tiny pockets over Florida and near the Canadian border; just a ton of cold Arctic air settling in:

Calm, but cold conditions move into eastern, southern U.S. behind storm

The late-season winter storm that brought snow and ice to parts of the eastern and southern U.S. has moved offshore and in its wake high pressure and arctic air will settle in. Temperatures will be 10-30 degrees below normal on Friday across these regions. Meanwhile, light snow showers are possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.


src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/NA/W V/20.jpg" alt="Water Vapor Satellite Image">

Infrared Satellite Image
Quoting 941. LargoFl:

here is the link......................Link

Thanks, Largo - I should have added it :/
Quoting 914. jpsb:



As I have already explained area is a better measure of sea ice then extent. Also you claimed record low maximum for Arctic sea ice. Not record low extent.



Should you wish to know the true health of the sea ice then the best metric to use is the sea ice volume.

"Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator."
Quoting 894. CaneFreeCR:

Tropical ice is minimal -- pretty much limited to mixed drinks.



Considering that all the high altitude glaciers,likek Kilimanjaro in Africa and the high Andes in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia are drastically receding, people won't even have any ice cubes left.
Quoting 929. ricderr:

Well yes. I was just joking because Nino 1+2 is actually negative currently. But yes, it is quite ironic that WSI shows that the ENSO/Atmosphere are acting in more of a cool neutral phase when NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory which stated the atmosphere has finally shown some weak signs of a response from the warmer ENSO.

30 day running SOI value is almost at 1....also morel a nina/neutral than el nino
They're about a month away:)
Local stations report 4 as the low today, but driving home from dart league last night, my truck thermometer was at 1 & even hit 0 for about 15 sec. Warming nicely today as brisk S winds blow. Looking forward to next week, will start warming the ground so those morels will pop.
Quoting 863. Naga5000:



You still don't know why there is a difference between land surrounded by ocean and ocean surrounded by land. Please go read a book and stop bothering people who actually care to try and unders atand climate.


He also doesn't understand the difference between North and South and why maximum Antarctic sea ice extent in September doesn't compensate for minimum Arctic sea ice extent in the same month.
951. SLU


This must be caused by "climate change". SURELY!
Quoting 935. NickyTesla:



The rainwater is slightly acidic and finds its way through the underlying limestone along fractures. With time the water dissolves larger and larger gaps along the fractures, weakening the rock. Widened fractures may merge forming underground voids and eventually there is not enough strength in the overlying soils/rock to support themselves and they collapse into the void. Pumping groundwater and developing over the voids doesn't help, but if you didn't have rain to begin with you wouldn't have the mechanism to form the sinkholes. Or life as we know it. Thanks
Quoting 948. dabirds:

They're about a month away:)
Local stations report 4 as the low today, but driving home from dart league last night, my truck thermometer was at 1 & even hit 0 for about 15 sec. Warming nicely today as brisk S winds blow. Looking forward to next week, will start warming the ground so those morels will pop.


might not be a good year for mushrooms .. last year we had so much snow the ground stayed too wet when the temperatures did reach the magic 66-70 degrees .. very few were found then and was a very short season up here .. one of the worst years for them I can remember ..
whitewabit - you should see the mushrooms that pop up in Alaska in the summer. Overnight HUGE mushrooms show up in the yard. Problem is that I don't know which are edible and which will kill you, so I leave them alone that way.
Quoting 949. jpsb:

Mass Gains of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Exceed Losses


Got a more current than 2012 analysis? Or did I miss the update in the article?
957. vis0

Quoting 844. vis0:

Need to rest, uploading as you read should be processed by 7AM.
CREDIT:: NOAA + Colorado State Edu. (though the joining of the western & eastern conus is not a public Colorado State Edu.product.)
SUBJECT:: a long plume of moisture stretching at its longest from south of Baja California to offshore of the NE of the USofA.
D&T:: on animation, though in being joined together the western CONUS is ~15mins early.
http://youtu.be/GVQ6Dr6GOSc (600x312 as is below)


The reason i posted this VID was two-fold.
As to the length of the plume(s) for those that might want to study or research it in the future and pass by WxU.

And to point out that maybe "almost Fujiwhara effect" like occurrence is one of the ingredient for atmospheric rivers. One or two days back i pointed out to look for an almost Fujiwhara over Fresno (Ca.) (For a better view than this VID/animation search for aviationweather.gov from February 2nd 2015 till February 4th 2015 over CA.). 
As you look at this VID at the VERY start you see a fledgling LOW heading southward off the Ca. Coast & a weak LOW moving north of western Arizona. These 2 LOWs almost  create a Fujiwhara effect but don't yet in be so close to each other they hamper each circulations from gaining more circular momentum.  The LOW heading northward past Arizona  never gets "wound up" as it heads towards Canada via Wisconsin, this LOW  stays North of the plume of moisture just enough to attract more moisture ENE, but not too close so the plume of moisture is entrained into that LOW, thus the LOW low spin acts as if to  connect i.e. make a connection between 2 large plumes to create an even larger plume of moisture.

Now i've seen this occurrence 3 times in ~5 yrs where i saw a form of Atmospheric Rivers develope and 3 times does not make this theory valid by any stretch but i put it out there so those whom do study weather and might have not noticed it, keep it in mind.
Nice system off Western Australia



Triplets in the SW Pacific?


Tropical Cyclone risk on the rise

The Australian tropics could see multiple tropical cyclones develop this week. Queenslanders should be watching the forecasts closely this week as a tropical cyclone could develop in the Coral Sea. Most models indicate the tropical low to deepen as it approaches the Peninsula mid-week. The system could cross the Peninsula and into the Gulf where it could deepen significantly. However, some models have the system moving quite slowly just off the QLD east coast, producing plenty of rain in the tropics.

The other major place to be watching will be the northwest shelf, to the north of the West Australian coastline. A tropical low will develop there in the next couple of days and is likely to deepen and at least come close to tropical cyclone strength later in the week as it slowly moves west-southwest. It's pretty unclear what kind of affect it will have on WA.

Finally, there is one other system of note just outside of Australian waters. A large tropical cyclone is likely to develop just to the northeast of Vanuatu in the next couple of days. This system should deepen quickly into a broad tropical cyclone before moving in a south to southeasterly direction having some impacts on Vanuatu and Fiji.

Wherever these systems track it is important for people to be prepared for nature's worst and to follow the warnings and advice of emergency services.


Weatherzone 2015