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Thailand's flood gradually subsiding; climate change increasing Thai flood risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:56 PM GMT on November 14, 2011

Unprecedented flood waters continue to besiege Thailand and its capital city of Bangkok this November. Heavy monsoon and tropical cyclone rains from July through October, enhanced by La Niña conditions, have led to extreme flooding that has killed 506 people and caused that nation's most expensive natural disaster in history, with a cost now estimated at $9.8 billion by re-insurance company AON Benfield. Thailand's previous most expensive natural disaster was the $1.3 billion price tag of the November 27, 1993 flood, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). The floodwaters this year have hit 83% of Thailand's provinces, affected 9.8 million people, and damaged approximately 25% of the nation's rice crop. Thailand is the world's largest exporter of rice, accounting for 30% of the global total, and the flood has helped trigger an increase in world rice prices in recent months. Fortunately, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the U.N. reports that overall global food prices have been steadily falling since June, thanks in part to increases in wheat and corn production elsewhere in the world. Food prices had reached their highest levels since the late 1970s early in 2011.


Figure 1. The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite acquired this pair of before-and-after natural-color images of Ayutthaya, Thailand, on October 23, 2011, and July 11, 2011. In both images, the Chao Phraya River curves through the outskirts of the city (north is to the left in these images). In October, however, the river has overflowed onto nearby floodplains. Fields, roads, and buildings have all been submerged by sediment-clogged flood water. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

The Thailand floods in historical context
Large floods have occurred along Bangkok's Chao Phraya River in 1942, 1978, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1996, 2002, and 2006. The 1942 flood is considered to be the worst flood in modern times. Since 1942, land subsidence, sea level rise, deforestation, urbanization, and removal of wetlands have made floods more likely. However, this has been offset to a large degree by the construction of a series of dams in the upper watershed of the Chao Phraya River basin--including the Bhumibol Dam (1964) and Sirikit Dam (1971). According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, who blogged about the Thailand flood on October 29, the flood of 2011 rivals or exceeds the great flood of 1942 in terms of depth of the flood waters, and the 2011 Thailand flood is perhaps the greatest flood ever to swamp a city so large (population 10 million) in world history. The last time a flood of such a great magnitude affected a city so large occurred in 2004 in Dhaka, Bangladesh, which also has a population near 10 million. Dhaka was almost completely submerged in during massive monsoon floods in the summer of 2004.

The estimated $9.8 billion in damage to Thailand from the 2011 flood is nearly 4% of the country's GDP. Hurricane Katrina cost the U.S. about 0.7% of its GDP, so the Thailand floods can be thought of as a disaster five times worse than Katrina for that country. The most expensive natural disaster worldwide since 1970 in relation to a country's size and economy (for disasters with a high death toll) was the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, according to the Inter-American Development Bank. Haiti's earthquake cost $8 billion, which was 115% of Haiti's GDP. The most expensive flooding disasters in the world since 1970, relative to GDP, both occurred in Honduras. Category 5 Hurricane Mitch of 1998 did damage equivalent to 81% of GDP, and Category 3 Hurricane Fifi of 1974 cost 59% of GDP to Honduras.

Short range forecast: gradual improvement
Fortunately, the monsoon has been quiet so far in November over Thailand, and the latest GFS model precipitation forecast show little additional rain over the country during the coming week. One wild card might be the appearance of a typhoon; November typhoons often affect Thailand. However, the reliable models for predicting typhoon development are currently not forecasting any typhoon activity in the Western Pacific over the coming seven days.


Figure 2. Predicted global sea level rise for 2100 from three different studies.

Forecast for the remainder of the 21st century: more mega-floods for Bangkok
Bangkok lies in the Chao Phraya River basin, which covers about 35% of the country, and has an average elevation just 1 - 2 meters above sea level. Obviously, sea level rise, which averaged 7 inches world-wide during the 20th century, and is predicted to be at least that high during the 21st century, is a huge concern for Thailand. Loss of land due to a sea-level rise of .5 m and 1.0 m could decrease national GDP by 0.36% and 0.69% (US$300 to 600 million) per year, respectively (Ohno, 2001). Higher sea levels also block the flow of flood waters out of the Chao Phraya River, backing up these waters into the city, putting stress on levees and raising flood heights. Another major concern of climate change is the increase in rainfall expected in a warmer world. A 2010 study by the World Bank found that a global temperature rise of 1.2 - 1.9°C would likely increase precipitation over Thailand by 2 - 3%. This extra rainfall, when combined with predicted levels of sea level rise and land subsidence due to groundwater pumping, would likely make a 1-in-50 year flood occur once every fifteen years by the end of the century. Since the flood control system in Bangkok is "generally designed to protect against 1-in-30-year floods", the report concluded that "people living in Bangkok will be facing more frequent events that significantly disrupt daily life." This study assumed that sea level rise by 2100 would be what the IPCC predicted in 2007: 0.6 - 1.9 feet. A number of studies published since that report are predicting much higher levels of sea level increase: 3 - 6 feet (1 - 2 meters) by 2100. If these higher sea level rise estimates prove correct, mega-floods like the 2011 flood will occur several times per decade in Bangkok by the end of the century--unless the Thais can engineer a massive sea wall to keep the ocean at bay.

The city and national planners have plans to add further flood protection, which has been planned and budgeted through 2014. The long-term land use plan until 2057 calls for adding new buffer zones and canals to re-route flood waters. Intentional flooding of agricultural lands upstream of Bangkok during major floods will also be used to help reduce the flood profile in Bangkok.

References
Michael Lemonick of ClimateCentral.org has an op-ed in the L.A. Times called "Thailand's Heart Attack", where he shows how climate change increased the odds of the 2011 mega-flood in Thailand. He makes the point, "Increasing load of greenhouse gases we're pumping into the atmosphere doesn't 'cause' extreme weather. But it does raise the odds, just as a diet of triple bacon cheeseburgers raises the odds of heart disease."

Ohno, E., 2001: Economic evaluation of impact of land loss due to sea-level rise in Thailand. Proceedings of the APN/SURVAS/LOICZ Joint Conference on Coastal Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in the Asia Pacific Region, 14-16th November 2000, Kobe, Japan, Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, 231-235.

World Bank, 2010, Climate risks and adaptation in Asian coastal megacities: a synthesis report

Jeff Masters
Flood on Khlong 5
Flood on Khlong 5
Flooded Ricefild
Flooded Ricefild
Im stey more than 50 cm in the water,and is still come.

Flood Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow
Thank you, Dr. Masters. Looks like we, citizens of planet Earth, could be in for a rough ride from here forward.
"...(T)he Thailand floods can be thought of as a disaster five times worse than Katrina for that country"

Incredible. A catastrophe at least seven times more costly for Thailand than that nation's previous most expensive disaster.

The hits, they keep on coming, don't they? Lemonick pretty much nailed it with this statement: the "increasing load of greenhouse gases we're pumping into the atmosphere doesn't 'cause' extreme weather. But it does raise the odds, just as a diet of triple bacon cheeseburgers raises the odds of heart disease."

Ouch.
Condolences to the people of Thailand.

It seems we just hear problems, problems, problems. Not a lot to be cheerful about these days, seemingly.
Looks like Eastern TX is in for some decent rains.

We (mostly the US and Europe) are creating these problems daily, because so far they haven't really affected most of us, except for the Netherlands and New Orleans. But a 6 foot sea level rise would wreak havoc on states from Florida to Maine, where much of the coastal plain, including a lot of cities, is less than 6 feet above sea level. So keep driving those big cars and burning all your incandescent lights, but be sure to warn your grandchildren to move inland!
An interesting economic side effect of the flooding in Bangkok is a developing shortage of disk drives that go into PCs. Bangkok is a hub for disk drive producers such as Western Digital. These plants will be off line for months or years because their factory floors were flooded, damaging their equipment.

The company I work for specializes in buying and selling hard-to-find electronic components. Our business in hard drives has spiked recently. Compounding the problem is that businesses like ours (including my own company) have been buying up any available drives on the after-market, which has eliminated the normal buffer in the supply chain.

This will raise the cost of PCs and laptops that use hard drives, which will create another economic ripple. Tablets and PCs that use solid-state drives will become more competitively priced compared to traditional PCs that use hard drives.

So, because it rained in Thailand, someone in the US will be getting a new tablet instead of a new laptop on Christmas morning.

When El-Nino comes next summer they will be in a drought. One would wonder the strength of next years El-Nino because it is coming. Also expect next years hurricane #'s to be down as well.
Flood waters have spread into northern Bangkok's business district, swamping office buildings and disrupting traffic.

The economic fallout from prolonged flooding is being felt in other parts of the world.

Electronics and car manufacturers have been particularly badly hit.

Al Jazeera's Wayne Hay reports from Ayutthaya, north of Bangkok.

11. Inyo
I think flooding caused by human-caused climate change is a big concern, but I think it's just as important to talk about the other cause of increased flooding (and drought) in the last few decades - watershed destruction. Removal of native vegetation, channelization of rivers, draining of wetlands, loss of soil, increases of impervious substrate such as roads, and inappropriate development of floodplains are all MAJOR causes of increases in flooding. Stopping climate change wouldn't be enough to stop our increasing flood issues if we don't also address watershed degradation, and if we have to deal with both, we are doubly in trouble.

I don't know much about Thailand's forests and rivers, but if it's anything like what is happening in many other areas, watershed degradation probably led to this flood as well.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks like Eastern TX is in for some decent rains.

East Texas has been doing pretty good with rain, I have been driving thru there alot and it is Nice and Green, Central and Western Texas are Bone Dry though. Forecast for South Central Texas again is for Trace Amounts Tuesday and this weekend, the decent rains unfortuantely like the last 15 months will be East of IH35, I have been praying for some Improvement here since Last September but there has been None. Hopefully it will cool off a little because it is too warm now.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
When El-Nino comes next summer they will be in a drought. One would wonder the strength of next years El-Nino because it is coming. Also expect next years hurricane #'s to be down as well.
Are we suppose to have an El Nino next Summer? If so that is when South Central Texas will get some Drought relief.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Are we suppose to have an El Nino next Summer? If so that is when South Central Texas will get some Drought relief.


Don't worry, Perry is still praying for you.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Are we suppose to have an El Nino next Summer? If so that is when South Central Texas will get some Drought relief.


As far as I know El-Nino is slated to return next year. Usually we get El-Nino every 3 years. The last year we had El-nino was 2009 and we only had 9 tropical systems.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


As far as I know El-Nino is slated to return next year. Usually we get El-Nino every 3 years. The last year we had El-nino was 2009 and we only had 9 tropical systems.
This La Nina means No rain for South Central Texas, to go 15 months with around 10 inches of rain is extremely difficult to survive when you have areas just east and north of you getting heavy rains but it misses us every stinking time. I know East Texas needs more rain but they have had a good 20 to 30 inches in the past 15 months not around 10 inches like we have.
Anyone seen Grothar?
I asked him (very nicely) to post a SatMap that did not include all those Irie colours of Green, Red, Yellow and Orange like he has been doing for this area.
He persists.
And the rain keeps falling.
It is getting more and more difficult to type while wearing a snorkel and mask......

It's all his fault.

:):))
Quoting greentortuloni:


Don't worry, Perry is still praying for you.
Good ole Green Tortuloni..Hope you are well.
Quoting pottery:
Anyone seen Grothar?
I asked him (very nicely) to post a SatMap that did not include all those Irie colours of Green, Red, Yellow and Orange like he has been doing for this area.
He persists.
And the rain keeps falling.
It is getting more and more difficult to type while wearing a snorkel and mask......

It's all his fault.

:):))


so if you ignore it, it will stop? :p
Quoting hydrus:
Good ole Green Tortuloni..Hope you are well.
I am glad someone is praying for us. Prayer is good.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


As far as I know El-Nino is slated to return next year. Usually we get El-Nino every 3 years. The last year we had El-nino was 2009 and we only had 9 tropical systems.


Not as far as I am aware.

I last heard it was due to another La Nina.

It's a different part of the oscillation as well. We're now into cold PDO meaning less El Ninos will be observed.
Thanks, Dr Masters for the blog on this a somewhat rare news item over in Europe at least. If you were not telling us about this then it would be an occurrence that most poeple would miss.
There has to be a tendency in media news networks to ignore this kind of news, not one thing can be found on the national networks about this,{not that I've seen anyway,} yet we get to know if somebody gets bitten by a shark in Australia soon enough.
I read somewhere that maybe 10% of the global population live near the coast, they are soon about to start getting compressed. The building of dyke's is not going to provide a solution to this sort of sea level rise.


Indeed, only one of sixteen or so models believes we'll have El nino conditions come summer next year.

It's either a weak La Nina or neutral again.

discussion



Same here, though this only goes to Feb.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am glad someone is praying for us. Prayer is good.
good for what?
Quoting Cotillion:


Indeed, only one of sixteen or so models believes we'll have El nino conditions come summer next year.

It's either a weak La Nina or neutral again.

discussion



Same here, though this only goes to Feb.


If we get neutral conditions next year then OUCH! As it's been a relatively quite year landfall wise as no majors hit the US again. We all now its gonna happen sooner or later. I know we had Irene & Lee but nothing compared to 2004 or 2005 storms when we had several majors hit the US each one of those years.
Tampa gonna have to move i guess......
El hierro, Canary Islands... volcanic sea eruptions keep growing

The way things are going... soon we may get floods from torrential satellite re-entries... The 3rd. one this year...

Radioactive Russian satellite could plunge to Earth in December

Link

November 14, 2011 – MOSCOW – As Russian engineers battle to regain control of an ailing Mars moon probe stuck in Earth orbit, the chances of salvaging the spacecraft’s ambitious mission appear to be dwindling, according to Russian news reports. Attempts to contact the beleaguered Phobos-Grunt spacecraft overnight Thursday (Nov. 10) have failed, and the spacecraft could fall back to Earth around Dec. 3, a Russian space industry spokesman told the country’s Ria Novosti news service. “The spacecraft repeatedly passed over the Baikonur station and other Russian and foreign points of space communications during the night. There is no news yet,” the Ria Novosti quoted the unnamed spokesperson as saying. Russia’s official Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) has not posted an update on Phobos-Grunt’s status to its website since Nov. 9, one day after the probe launched into space from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I am glad someone is praying for us. Prayer is good.
I pray and meditate ceaslessly..It is good..jmo..:}
El hierro, Canary Islands 2011 seismic activity

The Instituto Vulcanológico de Canarias (Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands) and National Geographic Institute’s seismic monitoring station located in Valverde detected increase seismic activity beginning on 17 July 2011.
The seismic monitoring network was increased in density on July 21 to allow better detection and location of the seismic events. There was an earthquake swarm with in excess of 400 minor tremors between 20 July and 24 July;by 27 July a further 320 earthquakes had been recorded.

On 25 August there were reports that some horizontal deformation had been detected, but that there was no unusual vertical deformation. At that time, the total number of tremors had exceeded 4000. By the end of September, the tremors had increased in frequency and intensity, with experts fearing landslides affecting the town of La Frontera, and also a small possibility of a volcanic eruption through a new vent. Emergency services evacuated several families in the areas at most risk, and made plans to evacuate the island if necessary.

Between 4.15 and 4.20am on 10 October 2011 the earthquake swarm changed behaviour and produced a harmonic tremor. Harmonic tremors are produced by magma movements and can indicate that an eruption has begun. It is thought that a small submarine eruption may have begun, 7km south of La Restinga.

As of 7 November 2011 a confirmed surtseyan type of eruption phase has started at the fissure. The eruption is currently ongoing with vigorous phreatic bubbles emerging.
I'm gonna go out and enjoy my 82deg weather today in Tampa......i'm sure it Global warming influenced. You all have a great day!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1222 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

ILC075-141845-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-111114T1845Z/
IROQUOIS IL-
1222 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR IROQUOIS COUNTY UNTIL 1245
PM CST...

AT 1219 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF CLAYTONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
WATSEKA AROUND 1230 PM CST.
SHELDON AROUND 1240 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE IROQUOIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4075 8813 4101 8766 4101 8755 4069 8754
4052 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 248DEG 42KT 4069 8780

$$

BEACHLER


SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 879...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

CORRECTED FOR TIME /EST/

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
INDIANA
WESTERN OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800
PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
DECATUR ILLINOIS TO 70 MILES EAST OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...INCIPIENT SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INVOF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHERE PRESSURE
FALLS ARE FOCUSING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HERE...AREA VAD AND RUC
OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATE VERY STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND ANTICIPATED FAST STORM MOTIONS...A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH SRN IL WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.


...MEAD
WWUS40 KWNS 141747 CCA
WWP9

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0879...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST MON NOV 14 2011

WT 0879
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 30%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 400
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26050
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU9.

$$
Greetings,

I am sorry for the Thai people's loss in this flood. On the other hand, this is the opposite of sealevel rise and subsidence. During floods rivers deposit silt on the floodplain, raising ground elevations that fight both sea level rise and subsidence. If they can plant around the floods, they will save money on fertilizer AND fight sea level rise. Developing in the floodplain is not a good idea in general.
The mud it leaves can be beneficial!
Quoting Patrap:
El hierro, Canary Islands 2011 seismic activity

The Instituto Vulcanológico de Canarias (Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands) and National Geographic Institute’s seismic monitoring station located in Valverde detected increase seismic activity beginning on 17 July 2011.
The seismic monitoring network was increased in density on July 21 to allow better detection and location of the seismic events. There was an earthquake swarm with in excess of 400 minor tremors between 20 July and 24 July;by 27 July a further 320 earthquakes had been recorded.

On 25 August there were reports that some horizontal deformation had been detected, but that there was no unusual vertical deformation. At that time, the total number of tremors had exceeded 4000. By the end of September, the tremors had increased in frequency and intensity, with experts fearing landslides affecting the town of La Frontera, and also a small possibility of a volcanic eruption through a new vent. Emergency services evacuated several families in the areas at most risk, and made plans to evacuate the island if necessary.

Between 4.15 and 4.20am on 10 October 2011 the earthquake swarm changed behaviour and produced a harmonic tremor. Harmonic tremors are produced by magma movements and can indicate that an eruption has begun. It is thought that a small submarine eruption may have begun, 7km south of La Restinga.

As of 7 November 2011 a confirmed surtseyan type of eruption phase has started at the fissure. The eruption is currently ongoing with vigorous phreatic bubbles emerging.



I used to organise fishing trips to La Restinga, El Hierro and can only think how the village will survive as they exist on Tuna Fishing and Dive Tourism. An underwater volcano/earthquake is not conducive to these industries
Things are destabilizing quick across Indiana
TORNADO WARNING
ILC019-183-141945-
/O.NEW.KILX.TO.W.0057.111114T1906Z-111114T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
106 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST.

* AT 101 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHAMPAIGN...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION COUNTY LINE
OF ARMSTRONG...ALSO MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RANTOUL...THOMASBORO...GIFFORD...POTOMAC...ROSSVIL LE...HOOPESTON...
FLATVILLE...ROYAL...ARMSTRONG...COLLISON...MIDDLE FORK WILDLIFE
AREA...HENNING...ALVIN AND BISMARCK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 236 AND 253.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 176 AND 181.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 182.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 8842 4026 8843 4050 8766 4049 8764
4022 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 256DEG 47KT 4019 8830

$$

CHURCHILL
TORNADO WARNING
INC007-073-141945-
/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0027.111114T1915Z-111114T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
215 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BENTON COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY...

* UNTIL 245 PM EST/145 PM CST/

* AT 211 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREELAND PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOWLER...BARCE...ATKINSON...LOCHIEL...TEMPLETON... WADENA...
OTTERBEIN...OXFORD AND REMINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4050 8749 4059 8753 4068 8753 4074 8736
4073 8727 4077 8726 4083 8710 4074 8709
4048 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 253DEG 49KT 4062 8738

$$

BEACHLER
TORNADO WARNING
INC017-049-131-181-141945-
/O.NEW.KIWX.TO.W.0028.111114T1915Z-111114T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
215 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EST/145 PM CST/

* AT 211 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 7 MILES EAST OF MONON...OR
9 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM INCLUDE...
ROYAL CENTER...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE STAR
CITY...THORNHOPE...LUCERNE...GRASS CREEK...LEASES CORNER...
MARSHTOWN...METEA...FLETCHER...ADAMSBORO...FULTON ...TWELVE MILE AND
HOOVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.


&&

LAT...LON 4103 8618 4079 8617 4076 8676 4094 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 265DEG 49KT 4088 8667

$$


JC

we are a weak la nina now should peak at a moderate one come december, end of january. la nina for the 2012 hurricane season is looking very unlikely. by the time we get to june we should be enso neutral. if we get a rapid warm up there is a chance an el nino could develop in the summer but i dont see la nina reemerging like this years summer. if i had to take a guess, we should have enso neutral for the 2012 season and a neutral enso atmoshphere..
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
116 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

ILC019-183-141945-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-111114T1945Z/
VERMILION IL-CHAMPAIGN IL-
116 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN AND
NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CST...

AT 113 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR THOMASBORO...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF RANTOUL...
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORM WAS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF ROSSVILLE...ALSO MOVING EAST.

AT 108 PM...SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO WITH DAMAGE AT LAKE OF THE
WOODS.


LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RANTOUL...GIFFORD...POTOMAC...ROSSVILLE...HOOPESTO N...FLATVILLE...
ROYAL...ARMSTRONG...COLLISON...MIDDLE FORK WILDLIFE AREA...
HENNING...ALVIN AND BISMARCK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 235 AND 252.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 180 AND 182.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 176 AND 183.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4011 8834 4029 8831 4050 8766 4049 8764
4022 8754
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 256DEG 47KT 4022 8815

$$

CHURCHILL
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
227 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

INC007-073-141945-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-111114T1945Z/
JASPER IN-BENTON IN-
227 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EST/145 PM CST/...

AT 225 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOCHIEL...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REMINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN CHICAGO.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 8711 4058 8735 4073 8727 4077 8726
4083 8710 4074 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 253DEG 49KT 4065 8719

$$

BEACHLER
000
NWUS53 KIWX 141938
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
238 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 9 SSW WOLCOTT 40.63N 87.09W
11/14/2011 WHITE IN NWS OFFICE

REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD POSSIBLY BECOMING RAIN
WRAPPED...REPORT RELAYED FROM SPOTTER BY NWS IND


&&

$$

CEO
This should be an eventful afternoon. It's been a warm, muggy day and with the cold front coming, it seems very possible that tornadoes will come close to where I live (there's already a tornado watch just to the west of me). Gotta keep a very close eye on the weather.
All weather events are caused by climate change. But I thought this has been the case for as long as we can ascertain.
Perhaps the islands can get some income from volcano tourism.
Watching the Long Range GFS. Looking for our 1st big cold outbreak down into the deep-south. I'm a cold/snow monger. LOL.
Quoting pottery:
Anyone seen Grothar?
I asked him (very nicely) to post a SatMap that did not include all those Irie colours of Green, Red, Yellow and Orange like he has been doing for this area.
He persists.
And the rain keeps falling.
It is getting more and more difficult to type while wearing a snorkel and mask......

It's all his fault.

:):))



There! Are you happy now? :P

Very quiet in here tonight....
From the models what I am looking at and all.. Winter should start kicking near the 2nd week of December or in the middle of December.. I believe its going to be a warmer thanksgiving for the most parts.. Dec thru March is plenty of Winter to have so if Winter hasn't started for ya, I wouldn't get mad yet.. B/c we might see something similar to the winter of '93 if we don't be careful.. I hope not, but stranger things have happen and u all know this weather this year has been wacky for some time now..

Its been awhile since I have been on here, but wanted throw some info out there, if anyone wanted to know..

JG
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Watching the Long Range GFS. Looking for our 1st big cold outbreak down into the deep-south. I'm a cold/snow monger. LOL.


Are you seeing any evidence of that on the horizon yet?

It was pretty nippy just a couple of days ago, though much more so at night than in the day. Tallahassee went from 22F to 70F in one day, for example.

But the high temp here in the Tampa Bay area was in the low sixties on Friday, I think it was. That was well below normal for this early in the season.
Well, my parents just got back from New Orleans. They said that the damage there was amazing, especially in the ninth ward. They got a lot of pictures and the damage really is impressive. They also got me some books about Katrina and the engineering side of the disaster (engineering is my true passion).

I'm very happy that I live far enough away to not experience anything even remotely close to a tropical cyclone.
Bring on the cooler weather..For West Palm Beach...

Quoting StormGoddess:
4.6 mag earthquake in South Dakota


WTH!?!?!?! What's next, Paris?
Quoting StormGoddess:
4.6 mag earthquake in South Dakota

actually a 3.7
Link
usgs is more reliable i sware
Quoting WxGeekVA:


WTH!?!?!?! What's next, Paris?


Quoting Articuno:

actually a 3.7
Link


Well, do we attribute this to all the fracking in Western North Dakota from the current Oil Boom?............

The same formation in ND extends into SD. I see in the local paper SD gov is busy trying to get the producers to start poking holes in SD. $$$$
Got quiet fast
Quoting Grothar:



There! Are you happy now? :P


Thank You, my Friend!
That's MUCH better, and well appreciated.
Cant wait on the Morning, to look out and see the Sunshine!

:):))
Quoting Articuno:

actually a 3.7
Link
usgs is more reliable i sware

Thanks Articuno, I'll make sure to check that one first next time. :)
Quoting biff4ugo:
Perhaps the islands can get some income from volcano tourism.

Great Idea.
The Tourist's can pay us to drop them into the Craters.
I want the Concession on the little signs that say "Bye, Mom" that they can hold up for the photos...

JK, Man!
* TropicalAnalystwx13 is eating this:

Doc's Figure 2 shows nicely that the predictions are all from the year 2000.


Figure 2. Predicted global sea level rise for 2100 from three different studies.
Quoting StormGoddess:
4.6 mag earthquake in South Dakota


Yikes! Upper Midwest is like the best place in the country to be to avoid quakes. Even the East Coast has more seismic history than them.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Watching the Long Range GFS. Looking for our 1st big cold outbreak down into the deep-south. I'm a cold/snow monger. LOL.


Same. From what I've been reading and researching, this winter looks to be pretty similar to the last. La Nina with -NAO and blocking. Warmer than normal Thanksgiving, followed by deep cold in the Eastern US for Dec/Jan, and then a warmer than normal Feb or end of Feb resulting in an early end to a cold winter.
Quoting pottery:

Great Idea.
The Tourist's can pay us to drop them into the Craters.
I want the Concession on the little signs that say "Bye, Mom" that they can hold up for the photos...

JK, Man!


...and you can also have a franchise operation in the Congo:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/nation al-park-invites-tourists-to-view-eruption-of-congo s-nyamulagira-volcano/2011/11/14/gIQAbnD7JN_story. html

KINSHASA, Congo - A national park in Congo best known for its endangered mountain gorillas is now inviting tourists to go on overnight treks to see a volcano spurting fountains of lava nearly 1,000 feet into the air.

Mount Nyamulagira began erupting on Nov. 6 and could continue to do so for days, or years...

...tourists on an overnight trek to view a spectacular eruption of Mount Nyamulagira, where rivers of incandescent lava are flowing slowly north into an uninhabited part of the park but pose no danger to its critically endangered mountain gorillas.
"Last night's was the most spectacular yet," spokeswoman LuAnne Chad said Monday from Virunga National Park.

Interesting. Why is the baseline back in 1995 or so?

Uploaded by MrGlasgowTruther4U on Nov 14, 2011


Mount Nyamulagira, in Virunga National Park, has been spewing out 200m high fountains of bright red lava since the beginning of November.

It is its biggest eruption in a century.
Rivers of lava are flowing north into an uninhabited part of the park, but pose no danger to its critically-endangered mountain gorillas, a statement from the park said.

Rangers have set up a camp in a safe area close to the volcano, where visitors can spend the night.
The eruption could last for several days, or even months.

An eruption of nearby Mount Nyiragongo in 2002 destroyed most of Goma city and forced 350,000 residents to flee.

Volcanologists have so far said the current eruption does not pose any threat to the local population.


Quoting wxgeek723:


Yikes! Upper Midwest is like the best place in the country to be to avoid quakes. Even the East Coast has more seismic history than them.


When was the last time...

A quake was felt in the Florida Peninsula. 0.0

Florida has less earthquake history than any other state out there.
Florida

Earthquake History
Although Florida is not usually considered to be a state subject to earthquakes, several minor shocks have occurred there. Only one of these caused damage. Additional shocks of doubtful seismic origin also are listed in earthquake documents.

A shock occurred near St. Augustine, in the northeast part of the State, in January 1879. The Nation's oldest permanent settlement, founded by Spain in 1565, reported that heavy shaking knocked plaster from walls and articles from shelves. Similar effects were noted at Daytona Beach, 50 miles south. At Tampa, the southernmost point of the felt area, the trembling was preceded by a rumbling sound at 11:30 p.m. Two shocks were reported in other areas, at 11:45 p.m. and 11:55 p.m. The tremor was felt through north and central Florida, and at Savannah, Georgia.

In January 1880, Cuba was the center of two strong earthquakes that sent severe shock waves through the town of Key West, Florida. The tremors occurred at 11 p.m. on January 22 and at 4 a.m. on the 23rd. At Buelta Abajo and San Christobal, Cuba, many buildings were thrown down and some people were killed.

The next tremor to be felt by Floridians also centered outside the State. It was the famous Charleston, South Carolina, shock in August 1886. The shock was felt throughout northern Florida, ringing church bells at St. Augustine and severely jolting other towns along that section of Florida's east coast. Jacksonville residents felt many of the strong aftershocks that occurred in September, October, and November 1886.

On June 20, 1893, Jacksonville experienced another slight shock, apparently local, that lasted


Full link to above article here.

Link
Quoting Hangten:
Florida

Earthquake History
Although Florida is not usually considered to be a state subject to earthquakes, several minor shocks have occurred there. Only one of these caused damage. Additional shocks of doubtful seismic origin also are listed in earthquake documents.

A shock occurred near St. Augustine, in the northeast part of the State, in January 1879. The Nation's oldest permanent settlement, founded by Spain in 1565, reported that heavy shaking knocked plaster from walls and articles from shelves. Similar effects were noted at Daytona Beach, 50 miles south. At Tampa, the southernmost point of the felt area, the trembling was preceded by a rumbling sound at 11:30 p.m. Two shocks were reported in other areas, at 11:45 p.m. and 11:55 p.m. The tremor was felt through north and central Florida, and at Savannah, Georgia.

In January 1880, Cuba was the center of two strong earthquakes that sent severe shock waves through the town of Key West, Florida. The tremors occurred at 11 p.m. on January 22 and at 4 a.m. on the 23rd. At Buelta Abajo and San Christobal, Cuba, many buildings were thrown down and some people were killed.

The next tremor to be felt by Floridians also centered outside the State. It was the famous Charleston, South Carolina, shock in August 1886. The shock was felt throughout northern Florida, ringing church bells at St. Augustine and severely jolting other towns along that section of Florida's east coast. Jacksonville residents felt many of the strong aftershocks that occurred in September, October, and November 1886.

On June 20, 1893, Jacksonville experienced another slight shock, apparently local, that lasted


Full link to above article here.

Link


You killed the blog.
..did u feel dat too?
Quoting 1911maker:




Well, do we attribute this to all the fracking in Western North Dakota from the current Oil Boom?............

The same formation in ND extends into SD. I see in the local paper SD gov is busy trying to get the producers to start poking holes in SD. $$$$


Possibly. Look at the area called The Geysers, near Lakeport CA. This a geothermal area, with the steam used to produce electrical power. In the late 70's when the supply of steam began to run out, PG&E made a deal with the City of Santa Rosa to build a wastewater pipeline to the Geysers, using the waste water to inject into the steam vents to produce more steam, The process is somewhat similar to fracking. Since that time, numerous, almost daily earthquakes have occurred in the area, most in the 2.5 range or smaller. If my memory serves, the largest earthquake was a 4.5. There seems to no doubt that this injection of wastewater has lubricated and stimulated some of the many small faults in the area. Given the number of faults within a 100 mile radius of The Geysers, it seems like a much larger earthquake would have occurred by now if the injections were having more than a local impact.

So, I think the question is not whether fracking can cause earthquakes, but can it cause damaging earthquakes? South and North Dakota have very little seismic history and any faults must lie under thousands of feet of alluvium. This is not the type of geological scenario likely to produce damaging earthquakes under any circumstances. A 3.7 earthquake is much too small to even be widely felt, let alone cause damage. As long as the pattern is similar to the Geysers, than we can recover more oil at very little risk to the public. I certainly don't have all the answers on this, but the issue, I'm sure, is being examined by both government and oil company geologists.
Coastal showers along ECFL tonight, some in SFL too. I've had .08" so far.

Another death in the science community..

Dr. Paul Epstein, a public health expert who was among the first to warn of a link between the spread of infectious disease and extreme weather events, adding a new dimension to research into the potential impact of global climate change, died on Sunday at his home in Boston. He was 67.

The cause was lymphoma, said his wife, Andy.

Dr. Epstein, a physician and associate director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, published widely in scientific journals beginning in the early 1990s about what were then some of the less obvious potential effects of excessive carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

He wrote about ocean warming-spiked algae blooms, and how they might be the source of recent cholera outbreaks, how milder winters and hotter summers favored mosquito breeding in areas where there had been outbreaks of encephalitis, how the same conditions accelerated the growth of ragweed, and how some particulate matter from coal-burning plants was particularly good at carrying pollen and other allergens deep into the lungs, possibly explaining a worldwide asthma epidemic since 1980.
more here..
sar2401~ That should be very little earthquake risk to the public. What fracking is doing to drinking water is a much bigger risk.
Quoting RussianWinter:


When was the last time...

A quake was felt in the Florida Peninsula. 0.0

Florida has less earthquake history than any other state out there.


There was a 6.0 earthquake that was centered 200+ miles west of Tampa on the floor of the Gulf of Mexico, in September of 2006.

We felt the trembling quite noticeably in this area, I remember it well.

People often forget that in spite of the generally seismically stable nature of the overall US Gulf Coast region, with its non-mountainous topography, there are sizable mountain ranges, deep trenches, giant cliffs and yes, fault lines, not far away. The only difference is that these are all undersea and covered up by the vast deepness of the waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Because of our own life experiences and the frame of reference they provide for us, we tend to forget that most of the land on this planet, including the seismically and volcanically active areas, are under the sea and not on the 25% of the Earth's surface that is above water.
Quoting Skyepony:
sar2401~ That should be very little earthquake risk to the public. What fracking is doing to drinking water is a much bigger risk.


Yes, the same issues arose using wastewater for the injection fluid in The Geysers. The difference is that The Geysers is a lightly populated area at about 2200 feet, so the valley aquifer was at very little risk. It's not clear that the chemical contamination being seen in Wyoming is soley from fracking, since there have been mining projects and intensive agriculture going on in the area for about 100 years. If it turns out that fracking is the cause, the oil companies will have to use less damaging chemicals or find another method to extract the oil. Assuming we ever want to not be dependent for oil on countries that, by and large, hate us, we need to find a way to extract more oil from our country. I just wish President Obama would get on-board with natural gas, since the US and Canada have 80% of the world's supply and it can replace about 75% of our imported oil. I realize that natural gas extraction and transportation also has risks, but so does funding people who want to kill us. There's still no such thing as a free lunch.
We've had a day of mostly light drizzle but temperatures in the low 70's all day. We are getting some clearing now, but it's still 65 degrees. If we get some daytime sun tomorrow, we could be in big trouble, as the same front hammering the Midwest will be moving through here tomorrow night. I hope it stays cloudy so we get stable air, but I'm starting to get a little worried here in Central Alabama.
Quoting sar2401:
We've had a day of mostly light drizzle but temperatures in the low 70's all day. We are getting some clearing now, but it's still 65 degrees. If we get some daytime sun tomorrow, we could be in big trouble, as the same front hammering the Midwest will be moving through here tomorrow night. I hope it stays cloudy so we get stable air, but I'm starting to get a little worried here in Central Alabama.
good morning! hope everything goes ok for you over there, 70 here this morning, going up in the low 80s they say,dont think that cold front will make it here to central florida, might give us a few showers i hope..its the dry season for us now
Quoting LargoFl:
good morning! hope everything goes ok for you over there, 70 here this morning, going up in the low 80s they say,dont think that cold front will make it here to central florida, might give us a few showers i hope..its the dry season for us now
Good morning to all, good rains headed this way but not here yet. I will trade you Florida your dry season for our drought? LOL Every time i turn weather channel on it is raining in Florida. This will be my fourth good rain of the year should put me over 10 inches for the year, I should be around 35 inches now, now that is dry. Have a great day!
was not tsa purpose to stop terrorism? announced they will open wrapped presents looking for anything illegal. there is no stopping govt from getting bigger
All the radar stations on Wunderground are out! What's going on?
Here again I'm going to rant!

Always United States fault for global warming!

I've brought the argument of polar switches, causing much of the weather issues, no debate, just ignore!

Bring it on folks, Solar storms too!

I love to debate this issue!

Who disagrees with me on Polarity controls the Jet streams?
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Here again I'm going to rant!

Always United States fault for global warming!

I've brought the argument of polar switches, causing much of the weather issues, no debate, just ignore!

Bring it on folks, Solar storms too!

I love to debate this issue!

Who disagrees with me on Polarity controls the Jet streams?

I've never heard anyone credible claim that it's "always United States fault for global warming", though it's true than on a per-capita basis, the U.S. ranks very near the top of the global scale.

I believe jet streams are caused by uneven heating of the earth's surface (due to latitude and, thus, insolation ) and the spinning of the planet. Are you saying they may be instead induced or influenced by the earth's magnetic fields?
I'm saying polarity is part of the formula in the jets, contributing factor.
Quite moist in the Central Atlantic..



The ITCZ is falling below the 10deg line.....Not much chance anything coming from the Atlantic now....Caribbean is the only open are for any Tropical development of any concern.


Was pretty confused for a second as to what the pinkish advisory was in texas... it's been a while since I've had to associate that part of the state with strong storms.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


Was pretty confused for a second as to what the pinkish advisory was in texas... it's been a while since I've had to associate that part of the state with strong storms.
No rain here yet but temps are in 70s for lows and have been in mid 80s for highs with high humidity, Feels like May not November here.
Quoting Seastep:
Doc's Figure 2 shows nicely that the predictions are all from the year 2000.


Figure 2. Predicted global sea level rise for 2100 from three different studies.
looking at the chart, that could be trouble for some of the beach area cities along florida's coastline,
Quoting Seastep:
Doc's Figure 2 shows nicely that the predictions are all from the year 2000.


Figure 2. Predicted global sea level rise for 2100 from three different studies.
a 2-3 foot rise at high tide could be trouble for florida's coastline cities, many with just a 3 foot seawall in some area's
On the subject of Fl. earthquakes. I remember this quake offshore in the GOM that was felt in parts of Fl.


Taken from The Observer News
The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Informaiton Center is reporting a 6.0 magnitude earthquake has occurred in the Gulf of Mexico approximately 250 miles WSW of Anna Maria, Florida. Tremors were reportedly felt in the Tampa Bay Area and as far north as Georgia. The quake occurred at the epicenter at approximately 10:56 a.m. Sunday morning. The quake was updated from 5.8 magnitude

I scrolled down and saw that this was already posted in a previous post.
Sorry for the re-post.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
No rain here yet but temps are in 70s for lows and have been in mid 80s for highs with high humidity, Feels like May not November here.


Good to see the rain headed your way Bohonk. Maybe Lake Travis will get some good runoff as well. I was in Austin in October for a wedding and drove out to Travis. WOW! Never seen it look so pathetic. Looks like my old stomping grounds of San Marcos will be getting in on the rain as well. Hope all is well!



About time we got you girls and boys some cool weather up North......:)
climate change increasing Thai flood risk

yeah, yeah, sure it is. That 25 million year old mountain range to the north, the world's largest, has nothing to do with it.

It's 79 with a dewpoint of 74 here in Orlando at 10:15am. Is this November or July? Also the 10 to 14 day forecast show little relief from this extreme humidity. Forecast today is for 86 with a heat index likely in the mid to upper 90's!
Low pressure still over Mexico, heating of the day coming today, gonna be some boomers, and heavy rainfall under the intense cells in TX
Expect this area to fill in later!

Cold up north in the Rockies

Bastrop pick up half an inch yet?
Chances looking good for several bouts of rain/thunderstorms over TX over the next couple of weeks as the trough appears to remained stuck over the Central US.
Look at this next trough depicted at day 10 on the Euro. This one means business!

Quoting RitaEvac:
Bastrop pick up half an inch yet?
Last time i saw a third of an inch, raining here 1 hour in Buda still a trace, lots of thunder and lightning very little rain, Sound familiar? I am hoping for .25.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Last time i saw a third of an inch, raining here 1 hour in Buda still a trace, lots of thunder and lightning very little rain, Sound familiar? I am hoping for .25.


I think you're gonna get your headlines today
Quoting StormTracker2K:
It's 79 with a dewpoint of 74 here in Orlando at 10:15am. Is this November or July? Also the 10 to 14 day forecast show little relief from this extreme humidity. Forecast today is for 86 with a heat index likely in the mid to upper 90's!


Actually we should see some relief by Friday with dewpoints in the 50's behind a weak cold front expected to fizzle out over Central Cuba by Saturday(according to the HPC preliminaries).

By the middle of next week, a more powerful front will probably send Turkey Day temps in the upper 60's/upper 40's(but like this past weekends front, it appears this'll be short-lived).

By Nov 24th, the SE Ridge is expected to completely break down. the PNA/EPO is expected to go neutral by months end-ending the raging Pacific Jet.

But until then, don't expect any sustained Arctic air until December rolls around(and that's if the AO/NAO tank as well which models are showing by mid-month).:)

If Cape Cod/Nantucket/Long Island want mounds of snow, make that a west-based -NAO to go please!:)
Quoting sar2401:


Yes, the same issues arose using wastewater for the injection fluid in The Geysers. The difference is that The Geysers is a lightly populated area at about 2200 feet, so the valley aquifer was at very little risk. It's not clear that the chemical contamination being seen in Wyoming is soley from fracking, since there have been mining projects and intensive agriculture going on in the area for about 100 years. If it turns out that fracking is the cause, the oil companies will have to use less damaging chemicals or find another method to extract the oil. Assuming we ever want to not be dependent for oil on countries that, by and large, hate us, we need to find a way to extract more oil from our country. I just wish President Obama would get on-board with natural gas, since the US and Canada have 80% of the world's supply and it can replace about 75% of our imported oil. I realize that natural gas extraction and transportation also has risks, but so does funding people who want to kill us. There's still no such thing as a free lunch.


Guess you didn't read the article, it was conclusive. There's nothing used in Big-Ag that would cause your tap water to be flammable either. Natural gas isn't endless or without atmospheric & other consequences. There is more sustainable resources out there. I make electricity from the sun & wind, from cheap & in some cases recycled materials..we need not be left behind as a country, slaves to those making a killing digging up every last resource. We can come up with better..if we don't, another country will.
Bastrop in line of fire

1-2 inches heading for Bastrop
.
I just saw this video of a cloud phenomenon and read the fascinating article accompanying it and thought I'd share.

Link

Now lets see if my post has my usual luck in being the last post before a new blog appears. ;)
Quoting RitaEvac:


I think you're gonna get your headlines today
Nope, the system came thru here full of thunder and lightning but the rains were kind of disappointing. I am happy with my half an inch but they were forecasting 1 to 2 inches, maybe it will Increase when it gets to East Texas but around here more bark than bite. Up to 9.53 for the year and the rains have stopped. It rained hard here but only lasted a few minutes.
Quoting RitaEvac:
1-2 inches heading for Bastrop
Easy there, same line came thru here and dropped .25 to .50 even though radar looked much more promising. I think Bastrop will get a good inch because they already received .34 earlier today.
On the subject of artificial/man made sea defences highlighted by this line from the blog Entry:-
"If these higher sea level rise estimates prove correct, mega-floods like the 2011 flood will occur several times per decade in Bangkok by the end of the century--unless the Thais can engineer a massive sea wall to keep the ocean at bay."
Its not really down to engineering a massive sea wall, its what happens if you do? With a projected rise in sea levels, the inevitably the sea will get over the wall. Then they are quite literally sunk! A big storm surge from a typhoon might do the trick, or just plain time. The wall would not only have to encompass the city, or cities as more than one city will need these but also allow for rivers to pass through it, hence the wall would have to continue upstream for a distance until a level say 3 meters above present sea level is reached.
The scale of all this is awesome, multiplied by hundreds of coastal cities. Then because parts of the cities are below the new sea level all rainwater and sewage/runoff will also have to be pumped out. Otherwise. Plague!!
You can't Just keep the ocean at Bay.

129. eddye
that looks cold coming for jacksonville
can somebody PLEASE share with me the link to CAPE values forecast? thx
It's so hot out there a weak line of sea breeze showers is trying in ECFL. My high so far has been 93º (feels like 102º) in Melbourne, FL.

Quoting Skyepony:
It's so hot out there a weak line of sea breeze showers is trying in ECFL. My high so far has been 93º (feels like 102º) in Melbourne, FL.


Toasty here in Naples, too; except for the sun angle, it could very well be sometime in May.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Toasty here in Naples, too; except for the sun angle, it could very well be sometime in May.


86 here NW side of Orlando with a heat index of 92. Very unusual to get dewpoints this high into the 70's in November.
Quoting SPLbeater:
can somebody PLEASE share with me the link to CAPE values forecast? thx


CAPE forecast
Strong Thunderstorms approaching Galveston Bay.

137. CAAM
@ Post 125
Amazing! Thanks for sharing.
the report for Hurricane Calvin is out
Quoting CAAM:
@ Post 125
Amazing! Thanks for sharing.


Not that big of a deal if you live in FL. What your seeing a thunderhead shooting up into the atmosphere. You see that all the time here in FL as the seabreeze moves inland with high CAPE values causing explosive thunderstorm growth. Also you are seeing the sun relecting off the top of that building thunderstorm. If the sun is at the right angle in the afternoon (4pm thru 7pm) you tend to see this often looking off in the horizon.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not that big of a deal if you live in FL. What your seeing a thunderhead shooting up into the atmosphere. You see that all the time here in FL as the seabreeze moves inland with high CAPE values causing explosive thunderstorm growth. Also you are seeing the sun relecting off the top of that building thunderstorm. If the sun is at the right angle in the afternoon (4pm thru 7pm) you tend to see this often looking off in the horizon.
really, the 'lensing' effect is common to you? are you sure you catching the uniqueness of the phenomena? it is the actively refracting sun dogs that are of interest, potentially caused by electrical fields re-arranging ice crystals... it's not your everyday iridescent display.. i'm from MN, so i'm just curious if this really is common to you, or if you missed the point of the vid?
The CMC has a sub-tropical feature at 144 hour..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not that big of a deal if you live in FL. What your seeing a thunderhead shooting up into the atmosphere. You see that all the time here in FL as the seabreeze moves inland with high CAPE values causing explosive thunderstorm growth. Also you are seeing the sun relecting off the top of that building thunderstorm. If the sun is at the right angle in the afternoon (4pm thru 7pm) you tend to see this often looking off in the horizon.

As Minnemike said, the video appears to show something different than mere refraction. I commented on the phenomenon several weeks ago (I even posted a comment to the Bad Astronomy page back on 10/25), and posted a few additional videos here showing the same thing. Having lived in Florida off and on for decades, I myself have seen it more than once, but I can count the actual number of times on the fingers of just one hand, and it's always been completely fascinating. Now that I know what it is, it's even more so.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
I just saw this video of a cloud phenomenon and read the fascinating article accompanying it and thought I'd share.

Link

Now lets see if my post has my usual luck in being the last post before a new blog appears. ;)


Seen this same video a few times on this blog. Full discussions have happened from all the postings as well. Although it is cool, its has already been discussed here.
Quoting Minnemike:
really, the 'lensing' effect is common to you? are you sure you catching the uniqueness of the phenomena? it is the actively refracting sun dogs that are of interest, potentially caused by electrical fields re-arranging ice crystals... it's not your everyday iridescent display.. i'm from MN, so i'm just curious if this really is common to you, or if you missed the point of the vid?


Yes, very common when thunderstorms are exploding escpecially watching the seabreezes collide over the interior from a distance. If the sun is at a right angle during the late afternoon then yes.
Quoting Minnemike:
really, the 'lensing' effect is common to you? are you sure you catching the uniqueness of the phenomena? it is the actively refracting sun dogs that are of interest, potentially caused by electrical fields re-arranging ice crystals... it's not your everyday iridescent display.. i'm from MN, so i'm just curious if this really is common to you, or if you missed the point of the vid?


To me it's just strong updrafts rising up into cold air aloft creating this illusion. I've seen this many times here. I hope you don't think this is an UFO or something.
Boy I bet RitaEvac is dancing in the streets right now as there is a nice cell about to go right over him.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boy I bet RitaEvac is dancing in the streets right now as there is a nice cell about to go right over him.


not quite, not too happy the way this turned out, this batch is all were gonna get apparently.
Quoting RitaEvac:
.60 here southeast of Buda, my dad got .60 in southwest Austin, my brother got 1.3 west of Austin and around 1 inch in Bastrop. Not great but very good for around here, the heavy rain at my house only lasted a few minutes. Ready for the next system this weekend to give us a little more rain hopefully. Ready for some colder weather now, lots of 80s forecasted around here in the near future. Hearing Florida is Hot also, hope it cools down for you.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
.60 here southeast of Buda, my dad got .60 in southwest Austin, my brother got 1.3 west of Austin and around 1 inch in Bastrop. Not great but very good for around here, the heavy rain at my house only lasted a few minutes. Ready for the next system this weekend to give us a little more rain hopefully. Ready for some colder weather now, lots of 80s forecasted around here in the near future. Hearing Florida is Hot also, hope it cools down for you.


At work here in Texas City, just sprinkles, no rain, got rain at the house up the road, but this system was a joke, expected much more widespread rains than this.

traffic cam view at the intersection in front of my building

Quoting RitaEvac:


not quite, not too happy the way this turned out, this batch is all were gonna get apparently.

its better then nothin
just sayin
Quoting RitaEvac:


At work here in Texas City, just sprinkles, no rain, got rain at the house up the road, but this system was a joke, expected much more widespread rains than this.

traffic cam view at the intersection in front of my building



Hey atleast you are getting some rain. Better than what you had been getting.
Quoting Articuno:

its better then nothin
just sayin


LOL! That's exactly what I was saying. They also have more on the way this weekend.
Better than nothing for sure! now bring on the next system
Got spoiled last week of the 1.52" I guess
Quoting RitaEvac:
Got spoiled last week of the 1.52" I guess


More coming but this appears to be geared for C and N TX.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


More coming but this appears to be geared for C and N TX.


yayayayay
just hope it covers all of tx
Quoting StormTracker2K:


More coming but this appears to be geared for C and N TX.



Today the models are back to calling for that low to carve out an EC trough next week. That low should either be an Apps runner or EC hugger(northeast). Either way, somebodies gonna get some snow from this.

This same system should give us Floridians some nice chilly weather come Thanksgiving Weekend(yesterday, a few models had a blow-torch for the southeast. thank goodness they've all backed away from that)!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
why would i think it a UFO? i clearly state that the supposition is electric fields rearranging ice crystals... as a result of explosive convection. you don't get an effect like that from the pulsing of air as convection builds, as pulses would not move that quickly. this is more than the lenticular capping of cumulonimbus. not by much, but a little bit more..

it seems you are passing this off more casually than the phenomena demands. i highly doubt it is simply air moving. i agree greatly with the analysis of it being an electrical field related issue (yes, resulting from explosive convection).
Quoting RitaEvac:


At work here in Texas City, just sprinkles, no rain, got rain at the house up the road, but this system was a joke, expected much more widespread rains than this.

traffic cam view at the intersection in front of my building

You cannot always look at a radar and say someone is going to get 1 to 2 inches of rain especially during a drought, watching it I thought I would get 2 to 3 inches easily but the system was moving pretty fast, isolated areas did get near 2 inches between Austin and San Antonio. Rains like this will greatly decrease the chances of Texas fires.
Quoting Skyepony:


Guess you didn't read the article, it was conclusive. There's nothing used in Big-Ag that would cause your tap water to be flammable either. Natural gas isn't endless or without atmospheric & other consequences. There is more sustainable resources out there. I make electricity from the sun & wind, from cheap & in some cases recycled materials..we need not be left behind as a country, slaves to those making a killing digging up every last resource. We can come up with better..if we don't, another country will.


I read the article completely. The writer clearly has a bias, and I'd need to know more about the mining and agricultural history of the area before saying, with absolute certainty, that there was only one way for that chemical to get in the groundwater. Still, if the chemical is coming from fracking, that's one more good reason use natural gas.

I have no arguement that we need to develop less polluting and more effective forms of alternate power. However, hydrocarbon based fuel is the only reasonable alternative we have now and for at least the next few decades. The hardest thing to do is come up with an alternate fuel for vehicles. Even with electric cars, the source of electricity has to come from somewhere, and wind and solar are much too expensive right now to substitute for hydrocarbon-based fuel fire power plants. In addition, electric powered vehicles need batteries...and lots of them. If you want to see a real cesspool of dangerous chemicals, take a look at lead-acid battery construction. They last an average of two years in vehicle service, and then we have to dispose of them. It's like nuclear power. One of the biggest issues is how you get rid of the toxic waste.

Vehicles of all types consume about 65% of all our power. Natural gas, while not infinite, is available in supplies estimated to last for at least the next 200-300 years. This gives us some time to develop dependable and affordable alternate fuel sources while releasing us from slavery to nations that want to harm us. Natural gas is the cleanest burning hydrocarbon based fuel we have in abundance. Switching all vehicles and power plants to natural gas would cut the amount of CO2 we release in the atmosphere by more than half. As I said in my original post, there are dangers in using natural gas, just as there are in wind power or solar. There's no free lunch. However, we can either sit here and twiddle our thumbs waiting for a scientist to come up with the ultimate non-polluting power source or we can do something that will help immediately. Natural gas is the best alternative we have.
Quoting Minnemike:
why would i think it a UFO? i clearly state that the supposition is electric fields rearranging ice crystals... as a result of explosive convection. you don't get an effect like that from the pulsing of air as convection builds, as pulses would not move that quickly. this is more than the lenticular capping of cumulonimbus. not by much, but a little bit more..

it seems you are passing this off more casually than the phenomena demands. i highly doubt it is simply air moving. i agree greatly with the analysis of it being an electrical field related issue (yes, resulting from explosive convection).

some of the words you said i did not understand.
O.o
Quoting Minnemike:
why would i think it a UFO? i clearly state that the supposition is electric fields rearranging ice crystals... as a result of explosive convection. you don't get an effect like that from the pulsing of air as convection builds, as pulses would not move that quickly. this is more than the lenticular capping of cumulonimbus. not by much, but a little bit more..

it seems you are passing this off more casually than the phenomena demands. i highly doubt it is simply air moving. i agree greatly with the analysis of it being an electrical field related issue (yes, resulting from explosive convection).
Quoting Minnemike:
why would i think it a UFO? i clearly state that the supposition is electric fields rearranging ice crystals... as a result of explosive convection. you don't get an effect like that from the pulsing of air as convection builds, as pulses would not move that quickly. this is more than the lenticular capping of cumulonimbus. not by much, but a little bit more..

it seems you are passing this off more casually than the phenomena demands. i highly doubt it is simply air moving. i agree greatly with the analysis of it being an electrical field related issue (yes, resulting from explosive convection).


Oh OK! I just didn't understand what you were getting at. Sorry.
Quoting weatherbro:


Today the models are back to calling for that low to carve out an EC trough next week. That low should either be an Apps runner or EC hugger(northeast). Either way, somebodies gonna get some snow from this.

This same system should give us Floridians some nice chilly weather come Thanksgiving Weekend(yesterday, a few models had a blow-torch for the southeast. thank goodness they've all backed away from that)!


I agree looks as if the blow torch has been turned down for the SE US next week but I wouldn't say chilly by any means either. More like 78 to 82 for highs maybe lower depending if the trough digs a little deeper along the east coast of the US.
Quoting Articuno:

some of the words you said i did not understand.
O.o
i typed most of the words, so i can see how what i spoke did not quite come through
:P
(sorry, cannot resist linguistic humor)
sar~ Since when is chemistry, research & first hand accounts bias? Or is the EPA & locals totally untrustworthy?

Natural gas is the better bridge to renewables, I agree there. But all this it's too expensive, we don't have the technology is bull. Big oil has bought & shelved the future & are suing the crap out of renewables if they hold out. Laws to keep all the power in a few hands have been arranged. Energy is being run by monopolies that want to keep us on something they can extract & sell. If we could sell extra electricity to the grid at a fair price & had plentiful USA manufactures of panels & such..we could be on our way to home owners getting a piece of the energy income. Germany has gone from 6.3% renewable energy sources in 2000 to 20% this year...we could have done that too. We are trailing at 14% this year & that includes ethanol which has too many depleting effect to be sustainable (enlarged gulf dead zone, causing rain to contain roundup which lowers yields of other crops & all the energy used to grow a fertilized, pesticided, herbicided crop).
Quoting sar2401:


I read the article completely. The writer clearly has a bias, and I'd need to know more about the mining and agricultural history of the area before saying, with absolute certainty, that there was only one way for that chemical to get in the groundwater. Still, if the chemical is coming from fracking, that's one more good reason use natural gas.

I have no arguement that we need to develop less polluting and more effective forms of alternate power. However, hydrocarbon based fuel is the only reasonable alternative we have now and for at least the next few decades. The hardest thing to do is come up with an alternate fuel for vehicles. Even with electric cars, the source of electricity has to come from somewhere, and wind and solar are much too expensive right now to substitute for hydrocarbon-based fuel fire power plants. In addition, electric powered vehicles need batteries...and lots of them. If you want to see a real cesspool of dangerous chemicals, take a look at lead-acid battery construction. They last an average of two years in vehicle service, and then we have to dispose of them. It's like nuclear power. One of the biggest issues is how you get rid of the toxic waste.

Vehicles of all types consume about 65% of all our power. Natural gas, while not infinite, is available in supplies estimated to last for at least the next 200-300 years. This gives us some time to develop dependable and affordable alternate fuel sources while releasing us from slavery to nations that want to harm us. Natural gas is the cleanest burning hydrocarbon based fuel we have in abundance. Switching all vehicles and power plants to natural gas would cut the amount of CO2 we release in the atmosphere by more than half. As I said in my original post, there are dangers in using natural gas, just as there are in wind power or solar. There's no free lunch. However, we can either sit here and twiddle our thumbs waiting for a scientist to come up with the ultimate non-polluting power source or we can do something that will help immediately. Natural gas is the best alternative we have.


We need to find something else besides oil and other carbon based fuels:

Energy Costs Will Rise Viciously - This article presses the need for atomic power usage and to get completely away from all hydrocarbon based fuels. ... Well, I am not certain that nuclear is a viable approach either but, that is another topic for discussion.

Should "fracking" pose a real threat to our drinking water, and I believe that it does based on what I have learned, then we need to avoid this as much as we need to avoid any carbon based energy source. What good does it do to have a 200 - 300 year natural gas supply if it contaminated our drinking waters within 100 - 150 years?

Alternative energy sources are going to become cost effective within a short time. This will be due to better and faster production methods, volume selling and because carbon based fuels will become very costly. Carbon fuels are already extremely costly when you weigh in their total costs across all aspects associated with using them.
Quoting Skyepony:
sar~ Since when is chemistry, research & first hand accounts bias? Or is the EPA & locals totally untrustworthy?

Natural gas is the better bridge to renewables, I agree there. But all this it's too expensive, we don't have the technology is bull. Big oil has bought & shelved the future & are suing the crap out of renewables if they hold out. Laws to keep all the power in a few hands have been arranged. Energy is being run by monopolies that want to keep us on something they can extract & sell. If we could sell extra electricity to the grid at a fair price & had plentiful USA manufactures of panels & such..we could be on our way to home owners getting a piece of the energy income. Germany has gone from 6.3% renewable energy sources in 2000 to 20% this year...we could have done that too. We are trailing at 14% this year & that includes ethanol which has too many depleting effect to be sustainable (enlarged gulf dead zone, causing rain to contain roundup which lowers yields of other crops & all the energy used to grow a fertilized, pesticided, herbicided crop).


Big Oil does not want renewable energy sources until they can control them. You can take that to the bank.
Cold Blue to Dr. Master's blog! Bring a crash cart!

Darn! I killed the blog again!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Cold Blue to Dr. Master's blog! Bring a crash cart!

Darn! I killed the blog again!

you killed it again...
The last few comments on energy and what form its main source contributors will be to the future of humanity is going to occupy more and more time in the coming years.
The main thread will probably always be the problem with alternatives for fueling transportation. In an ideal world a transition to renewable's would be simple but time consuming process, unfortunately with the vast and increasing number of vehicles on the worlds roads and the resistance to paying out beyond the minimum for a large proportion of people will in my opinion limit the number of vehicles using alternative energy to a very low percentage.
The only solution to this will be legislation which may in itself encounter insurmountable resistance from all sides with vested interests.
Again in my opinion the only way to convert to renewable's will be brought about by a fear of what will happen if we Don't.
Quoting Articuno:

you killed it again...


Wait! There is still a sign of life! Clear! zap!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Wait! There is still a sign of life! Clear! zap!

It's probably, artificial intelligence at this time of the day!
Funny being 'downwind' from TX now that I'm in the Nashville area... Been incredibley mild the last 3 days with DT highs in the 70's NT lows in the 50's.. supposed to drop into the 30's tomorrow night though.. got our first rotating T-storm heading our way.. we'll see how the kids deal with the light and sound show..
have a nice evening everyone...
JNTenn
Quoting Skyepony:
sar~ Since when is chemistry, research & first hand accounts bias? Or is the EPA & locals totally untrustworthy?

Natural gas is the better bridge to renewables, I agree there. But all this it's too expensive, we don't have the technology is bull. Big oil has bought & shelved the future & are suing the crap out of renewables if they hold out. Laws to keep all the power in a few hands have been arranged. Energy is being run by monopolies that want to keep us on something they can extract & sell. If we could sell extra electricity to the grid at a fair price & had plentiful USA manufactures of panels & such..we could be on our way to home owners getting a piece of the energy income. Germany has gone from 6.3% renewable energy sources in 2000 to 20% this year...we could have done that too. We are trailing at 14% this year & that includes ethanol which has too many depleting effect to be sustainable (enlarged gulf dead zone, causing rain to contain roundup which lowers yields of other crops & all the energy used to grow a fertilized, pesticided, herbicided crop).


Skye, I do indeed believe that EPA is not trustworthy. We lived about a quarter mile from a plant that made contact lenses. Over a period of twenty years, they contaminated the groundwater that we were drinking with all sorts of benzine compounds and derivatives. Both the state of California and the EPA minimized the problem and lied about the risks to the public. My late wife, who lived a very healthy lifestyle, including drinking lots of water, got acute myelogenous leukemia in 2003 and died of it in 2004, at the age of 58. She had no other risk factors except the contaminated drinking water. She has an identical twin sister. Her twin, who lives in Ohio, is still alive and in good health today, so an evironmental factor is the only explanation, the contaminated drinking water being the logical culprit. I still have pending complaints with California and the EPA over thier "science". The contact lense company just filed for bankruptcy when the leukemia outbreak occured, so they are off the hook. As you can see, I have good reason to doubt reports, especially from the EPA, and I'm certainly no supporter of any company deliberately fouling the enivironment.

Unfortunately, solar and wind power are still too expensive to be used on a wide scale. I'd be interested in how exactly Germany defined "renewables", since that can take in a lot of questionable items, but the big issue is still powering vehicles. Even if we went to 100% solar and wind for residental power, we'd only reduce our hydrocarbon use by about 18%. There are cheaper and more effective things we can do right now, and they can be done by executive order. As an example, if all houses built in the future were required to use 12 volt power for lighting and small appliances, and we gave tax incentives to people to convert their homes to 12 volt power, we could save almost as much hyrocarbon fuel use as using residental solar power, at its current cost. We could also mandate the use of natural gas in all future vehicles, which can be done at an added cost of only about $100 for a new vehicle. Again, we could use tax incentives to get people to convert their current vehicles to natural gas. Since natural gas works out to about $1.35 per gallon, the savings in what we pay for gas could be used to build out the infrastructure for natural gas refueling stations. Oil companies will sell anything they can make a profit on, and could care less if it's solar, natural gas, or oil. We need to get a coherent national energy plan and start moving people away from imported oil ASAP. Small changes are cheaper and have a better chance of working than a big revolution. Whatever we do, we need to start now, not at some hazy point in the future, when the magic bullet appears.
sar ~So because the EPA is saying they are finding the fracking cancer causing chemicals in the drinking water..it's probably not true, even with the residents saying fracking has caused their water to smell like gasoline & they've been told not to drink or cook with it & to air out their house after showering?

Sorry for your loss, lost a sister to the same..thanks to an AirForce Base..pollution kills..fracking is pollution.

Colorado law like most have a loop hoop with no disclosure required on what chemicals are being used for fracking. You can inject any waste chemical into the earth & call it a trade secret formula..anything goes in polluting fracking style.

em>The fact that natural gas is a bridge fuel to nowhere was first shown by the International Energy Agency in its big June report on gas %u2014 see IEA%u2019s %u201CGolden Age of Gas Scenario%u201D Leads to More Than 6F Warming and Out-of-Control Climate Change. That study %u2014 which had both coal and oil consumption peaking in 2020 %u2014 made abundantly clear that if we want to avoid catastrophic warming, we need to start getting off of all fossil fuels.

You seem really caught up in pushing natural gas.

It's not all that & to say nothing will compete with it dollar for dollar..the day is coming sooner than you might think.

em>The best wind farms in the world are already competitive with coal, gas and nuclear plants. But over the next five years, continued performance improvements and cost reductions will bring the average onshore wind plant in line with cheap natural gas, even without a price on carbon, according analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'll be here for a bit.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We need to find something else besides oil and other carbon based fuels:

Energy Costs Will Rise Viciously - This article presses the need for atomic power usage and to get completely away from all hydrocarbon based fuels. ... Well, I am not certain that nuclear is a viable approach either but, that is another topic for discussion.

Should "fracking" pose a real threat to our drinking water, and I believe that it does based on what I have learned, then we need to avoid this as much as we need to avoid any carbon based energy source. What good does it do to have a 200 - 300 year natural gas supply if it contaminated our drinking waters within 100 - 150 years?

Alternative energy sources are going to become cost effective within a short time. This will be due to better and faster production methods, volume selling and because carbon based fuels will become very costly. Carbon fuels are already extremely costly when you weigh in their total costs across all aspects associated with using them.


As the article points out, natural gas is the only form of energy, other than nuclear, that meets the objective of reducing hydrocarbon emmisions while the demand for power continues to rise. By far, the cheapest and most accesible fuel is coal, and China burns about a half of the world's coal, since it is their largest source of hydrocarbons. I'm not aware of fracking being in widespread use for any other purpose than extracting oil or natural gas from coal methane beds, or CBM's. Most natural gas flows upward naturally from natural hydraulic fracturing. e.g, faults and vein structures. The biggest issue from natural gas extraction is the methane emmisons from drilling operations, but there are already operations under way that reduce methane emmisions from about 7% to 1%. Again, I'm not aware of any widespread incidents of natural gas extraction causing groundwater contamination, although I'm sure there are some. That can also be drastically reduced by better drilling methods and closer monitoring of the changes in groundwater supply chemicals. There are risks and benefits to using any energy source, and the ones that we'll use are the cheapest and easiest to get. As we reach the times of peak oil, other forms of energy will become competitive as oil prices rise. It's then we'll see a concerted move towards other forms of energy. Without draconian increases in taxes, there's no other way for alternatives to hydrocarbons being competitive in the near future.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
9:00 AM FST November 16 2011
======================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01 (1006 hPa) located near 19.0S 179.5W is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible with animation and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has decreased significantly in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface up to 700 HPA. TD 01F lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region along a surface trough in a moderate to high sheared environment. The disturbance is being steered southeast by a weak northwesterly deep layer mean wind

Most models have picked up the system and slowly moves it southeast with slight intensification.

The potential for this tropical disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW.


Princeton researchers found for the first time that day-to-day weather conditions have become more erratic in the past generation. Days have increasingly fluctuated between sunny and dry, and cloudy and rainy with little in-between, which can have negative consequences for ecosystems, plants, solar-energy production and other factors that depend upon consistent weather. Green areas on this map indicate an increase in day-to-day solar radiation (sunshine) variability between 1984 and 2007; pink indicates a decrease. The portion over the Indian Ocean is voided due to a lack of consistent data. (Credit: Image courtesy of David Medvigy)
Let me tell all you greenies something.

Our future lies with advanced technologies that rely on energy from the atom and gravity.

You never see civilizations relying on wind or solar for too much of their energy needs in science fiction and science fiction portends science fact.

Take your Whole Earth Catalogs and grey ponytails and wake up to reality.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'll be here for a bit.

What's up?
Quoting Articuno:

What's up?


Since I have the next two days off, I'm busy furnishing my report on the hurricane season.
Global warming is a buncha bullcrap. half a degree in 50 years dont mean nothin. :D
Quoting SPLbeater:
Global warming is a buncha bullcrap. half a degree in 50 years dont mean nothin. :D


trollface.jpg?
Of course, thats MY view....
Quoting KoritheMan:


trollface.jpg?


i isnt a troll. im bored with no tropics stirring, lol. Just putting my opinion out there, if u doesnt like it tell me and i wont post it :)
Quoting SPLbeater:


i isnt a troll. im bored with no tropics stirring, lol. Just putting my opinion out there, if u doesnt like it tell me and i wont post it :)


I can't tell you not to post your opinion.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I can't tell you not to post your opinion.


lol. well...thats curtious, but sometimes i need to be scolded xD

like before i knew hardly anything bout weather, i ws wishin for a Cat 4 to make landfall on NC coast so i could experience that. then i grew up have more sense now and think myself as a fool then LOL.
Hey,Kori.

I see your into the GW morass.

What I want to know is where did all this DRY AIR come from that nobody forecasted and hindered the development of most systems this year?
Quoting FrankZapper:
Let me tell all you greenies something.

Our future lies with advanced technologies that rely on energy from the atom and gravity.

You never see civilizations relying on wind or solar for too much of their energy needs in science fiction and science fiction portends science fact.

Take your Whole Earth Catalogs and grey ponytails and wake up to reality.


I agree.. But we need to get off fossil fuel now, thermo, solar, wind & efficiency are a better bridge then Natural Gas but something more like fusion or like Tesla's Tower should take the cake. I've been following the laser fusion place east of San Fransisco. They'd hoped to have it by last summer & are now projecting by the end of this fiscal year. At one point their funding was very much threatened, big oil tried putting an end to it. Here's recent happening around the world with different types of fusion.


& how about that drought over much of S Africa, TX & the midwest..drought makes dry air.
Methane is a big problem with natural gas, true. As are CO2 emissions. As is groundwater pollution from fracking fluids. As is air pollution from drillers and transportation. As is landscape destruction. And so on. IOW, natural gas is no panacea. It may be better than, say, coal, but that's hardly a stellar recommendation.

It's true that at the moment alternative energy sources are behind. Way behind, even. But they are catching up, and rapidly. The biggest obstacles to progress toward our eventual move toward alternate energy are neither technological nor financial: they're political, and they're thrown up by those hoping to maintain the fossil fuel-only paradigm for as long as possible for the purpose of profit. They may momentarily stall the switch. But reality always wins. Always. And in not too many year from now, our descendants will look back on our generation's myopic fascination with fossil fuels the way we look back at those ancestors of ours who used to kill whales for lamp oil: in disbelief at the utterly illogical shortsightedness some humans are capable of displaying.

The longer we drag our feet and pretend that gas and oil and coal are unlimited and aren't contributing to the disruption of our bisophere, the worse the switch will be for us when it comes--which it will. It seems to me it's better to do it now while we have some say in the matter than later when we won't.
Quoting SPLbeater:


lol. well...thats curtious, but sometimes i need to be scolded xD

like before i knew hardly anything bout weather, i ws wishin for a Cat 4 to make landfall on NC coast so i could experience that. then i grew up have more sense now and think myself as a fool then LOL.


Meh. To me there is no shame in wanting to experience nature at its strongest. That shouldn't come at the expense of empathy, though.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Hey,Kori.

I see your into the GW morass.

What I want to know is where did all this DRY AIR come from that nobody forecasted and hindered the development of most systems this year?


I think it has a lot to do with the Saharan Air Layer.
Quoting Skyepony:


I agree.. But we need to get off fossil fuel now, thermo, solar, wind & efficiency are a better bridge then Natural Gas but something more like fusion or like <


What ever happened to hydrogen fuel.

Wasnt natural gas a step stone towards its viability?

Link posted by Sherwood cool; I've lived in Florida since 1984 and have never witnessed that.
Link

Meteorologist Joel Gratz offers an explanation:

The answer lies in this: ice crystals, especially long needles, tend to become aligned with the ambient electric field.

So what you are seeing is sunlight reflecting off ice crystal faces that are constantly being oriented by the developing electric field just above the [cumulonimbus] top. Then there is a discharge in the cloud, and the field collapses momentarily, and the crystals begin to realign again. Then this just keeps happening over and over.
199. Chicklit 2:32 AM GMT on November 16, 2011 Hide this comment.
Link posted by Sherwood cool; I've lived in Florida since 1984 and have never witnessed that.


I agree that was way cool.
And I actually understood the explanation.

Thanks Sherwood.
Quoting Chicklit:
Link posted by Sherwood cool; I've lived in Florida since 1984 and have never witnessed that.
Link

Meteorologist Joel Gratz offers an explanation:

The answer lies in this: ice crystals, especially long needles, tend to become aligned with the ambient electric field.

So what you are seeing is sunlight reflecting off ice crystal faces that are constantly being oriented by the developing electric field just above the [cumulonimbus] top. Then there is a discharge in the cloud, and the field collapses momentarily, and the crystals begin to realign again. Then this just keeps happening over and over.

Precisely. Kinda like a giant LCD. And it's an awe-inspiring sight IRL.
Nea, ALL fossil fuels are GARBAGE.

However, we need to save them for future use as advanced building materials yet to be discovered. Organics will ALWAYS be a precious resource.

Hopefully fusion will become reality soon, but in the interim we must build safer and safer fission plants and store the waste in Yucca Mt type facilities with the FINAL Solution being blasting them into the Sun.
Because I'm bored, I'll give you guys a sneak peek at Harvey's report. Besides, this is sure to make TW13 happy.

Tropical Storm Harvey

August 19 - August 22

Harvey made landfall in Belize as a strong tropical storm. Thereafter, a second landfall occurred along the eastern coast of Mexico as a tropical depression.

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 11. The wave soon spawned a surface low, but development was limited due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Convection began to increase on August 14 when the system was located about 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The wave entered the eastern Caribbean on August 16. Satellite data suggests that the system became a tropical depression near 1800 UTC August 18 while centered roughly 250 miles northeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. The depression is estimated to have become a tropical storm near 1200 UTC August 19. Harvey moved generally westward toward the coast of Belize and gradually intensified. The cyclone is estimated to have reached its peak intensity of 50 kt just after 0000 UTC August 20. At that time, Harvey was centered about 100 miles east of Roatan.

Harvey continued west-northwest and made landfall along the coast of Belize near Monkey River Town just before 1800 UTC August 20, with winds still at 50 kt. Harvey moved generally west-northwest while overland, and the center emerged into the southern Bay of Campeche shortly after 1800 UTC August 21. Harvey did not strengthen, and made its final landfall along the Mexican coast in a sparsely populated region in the state of Veracruz near 0600 UTC August 22 as a tropical depression. Harvey dissipated shortly thereafter as it traversed the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Methane is a big problem with natural gas, true. As are CO2 emissions. As is groundwater pollution from fracking fluids. As is air pollution from drillers and transportation. As is landscape destruction. And so on. IOW, natural gas is no panacea. It may be better than, say, coal, but that's hardly a stellar recommendation.

It's true that at the moment alternative energy sources are behind. Way behind, even. But they are catching up, and rapidly. The biggest obstacles to progress toward our eventual move toward alternate energy are neither technological nor financial: they're political, and they're thrown up by those hoping to maintain the fossil fuel-only paradigm for as long as possible for the purpose of profit. They may momentarily stall the switch. But reality always wins. Always. And in not too many year from now, our descendants will look back on our generation's myopic fascination with fossil fuels the way we look back at those ancestors of ours who used to kill whales for lamp oil: in disbelief at the utterly illogical shortsightedness some humans are capable of displaying.

The longer we drag our feet and pretend that gas and oil and coal are unlimited and aren't contributing to the disruption of our bisophere, the worse the switch will be for us when it comes--which it will. It seems to me it's better to do it now while we have some say in the matter than later when we won't.


One plus is not enough.
+ + + + + + + + + +
There. That's better. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Because I'm bored, I'll give you guys a sneak peek at Harvey's report. Besides, this is sure to make TW13 happy.

Tropical Storm Harvey

August 19 - August 22

Harvey made landfall in Belize as a strong tropical storm. Thereafter, a second landfall occurred along the eastern coast of Mexico as a tropical depression.

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 11. The wave soon spawned a surface low, but development was limited due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Convection began to increase on August 14 when the system was located about 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The wave entered the eastern Caribbean on August 16. Satellite data suggests that the system became a tropical depression near 1800 UTC August 18 while centered roughly 250 miles northeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. The depression is estimated to have become a tropical storm near 1200 UTC August 19. Harvey moved generally westward toward the coast of Belize and gradually intensified. The cyclone is estimated to have reached its peak intensity of 50 kt just after 0000 UTC August 20. At that time, Harvey was centered about 100 miles east of Roatan.

Harvey continued west-northwest and made landfall along the coast of Belize near Monkey River Town just before 1800 UTC August 20, with winds still at 50 kt. Harvey moved generally west-northwest while overland, and the center emerged into the southern Bay of Campeche shortly after 1800 UTC August 21. Harvey did not strengthen, and made its final landfall along the Mexican coast in a sparsely populated region in the state of Veracruz near 0600 UTC August 22 as a tropical depression. Harvey dissipated shortly thereafter as it traversed the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains.

:D
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


One plus is not enough.
+ + + + + + + + + +
There. That's better. ;)


Or you can go the Facebook way and say "SherwoodSpirit likes this."
Quoting KoritheMan:


Or you can go the Facebook way and say "SherwoodSpirit likes this."


That would force me to actually log on to facebook...
Nah. :)
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


That would force me to actually log on to facebook...
Nah. :)


Not a fan?
Kori, once I got over my Pirates and Farmville addictions, I sorta wandered off.
So many other pretty, shiny objects to play with. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think it has a lot to do with the Saharan Air Layer.


That is close, KorthieMan. This year the dry air was caused by the TAL (Texas Air Layer). Texas killed everything that even thought about it!
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Kori, once I got over my Pirates and Farmville addictions, I sorta wandered off.
So many other pretty, shiny objects to play with. ;)


I am glad you escaped the snare of Zynga before it was too late.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is close, KorthieMan. This year the dry air was caused by the TAL (Texas Air Layer). Texas killed everything that even thought about it!


XD

Well I was more talking about the MDR, which was inhibited by Africa. For storms closer to home, the TAL™ was indeed the culprit. Hell, I watched Lee fall apart on my doorstep because of subsident flow on the eastern flank of that ridge.
Quoting KoritheMan:


XD

Well I was more talking about the MDR, which was inhibited by Africa. For storms closer to home, the TAL™ was indeed the culprit. Hell, I watched Lee fall apart on my doorstep because of subsident flow on the eastern flank of that ridge.


You trade marked TAL? LOL ... Do I owe you anything? ;-)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Because I'm bored, I'll give you guys a sneak peek at Harvey's report. Besides, this is sure to make TW13 happy.

Tropical Storm Harvey

August 19 - August 22

Harvey made landfall in Belize as a strong tropical storm. Thereafter, a second landfall occurred along the eastern coast of Mexico as a tropical depression.

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 11. The wave soon spawned a surface low, but development was limited due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Convection began to increase on August 14 when the system was located about 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The wave entered the eastern Caribbean on August 16. Satellite data suggests that the system became a tropical depression near 1800 UTC August 18 while centered roughly 250 miles northeast of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. The depression is estimated to have become a tropical storm near 1200 UTC August 19. Harvey moved generally westward toward the coast of Belize and gradually intensified. The cyclone is estimated to have reached its peak intensity of 50 kt just after 0000 UTC August 20. At that time, Harvey was centered about 100 miles east of Roatan.

Harvey continued west-northwest and made landfall along the coast of Belize near Monkey River Town just before 1800 UTC August 20, with winds still at 50 kt. Harvey moved generally west-northwest while overland, and the center emerged into the southern Bay of Campeche shortly after 1800 UTC August 21. Harvey did not strengthen, and made its final landfall along the Mexican coast in a sparsely populated region in the state of Veracruz near 0600 UTC August 22 as a tropical depression. Harvey dissipated shortly thereafter as it traversed the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains.


nice man, real nice. miniature NHC officer lol
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You trade marked TAL? LOL ... Do I owe you anything? ;-)


Not a damn thing. ;)
Quoting SPLbeater:


nice man, real nice. miniature NHC officer lol


It's a basic academic rule to articulate those kinds of theses with professional demeanor.
got 1 thing to say bout global warming, fossil fuels greenhouse gases and the BS around that topic:

When God made the Earth, he created enough resources within the earth to last the population for the time period he has planned before the Rapture with the tribulation following. therefore, nobody NEEDS to be worrying about saving energy and that kinda stuff. just put faith in the Lord, let him lead.

End of story, lol:)
any questions feel free to mail me, im bored too
"searching".. Terra-forming a Class M Planet 101.


Ahh, here we are...,See "Earth" SOL System.


3rd rock out.


ADVISE Caution as to Bipedal Inhabitant's.

Class YV1A, Humanoids,

Violent, territorial, Industrial Phase.

Early Space Faring within System.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's a basic academic rule to articulate those kinds of theses with professional demeanor.


dude...your using too many big words for SPLbeater, lol. I am one who enjoys reading the PDF files from the NHC about the past season.
Quoting Skyepony:
sar~ Since when is chemistry, research & first hand accounts bias? Or is the EPA & locals totally untrustworthy?

Natural gas is the better bridge to renewables, I agree there. But all this it's too expensive, we don't have the technology is bull. Big oil has bought & shelved the future & are suing the crap out of renewables if they hold out. Laws to keep all the power in a few hands have been arranged. Energy is being run by monopolies that want to keep us on something they can extract & sell. If we could sell extra electricity to the grid at a fair price & had plentiful USA manufactures of panels & such..we could be on our way to home owners getting a piece of the energy income. Germany has gone from 6.3% renewable energy sources in 2000 to 20% this year...we could have done that too. We are trailing at 14% this year & that includes ethanol which has too many depleting effect to be sustainable (enlarged gulf dead zone, causing rain to contain roundup which lowers yields of other crops & all the energy used to grow a fertilized, pesticided, herbicided crop).


Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Big Oil does not want renewable energy sources until they can control them. You can take that to the bank.


Yep. It's unfortunate but true.
2011 does compare to 2010 as in number of named storms....but 2010 was better for adreneline runnin hurricanes, lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not a damn thing. ;)


Good. I was going to ask if you take payments through PayPal.

BTW, I like your write up on TS Harvey.
Quoting sar2401:


There are risks and benefits to using any energy source, and the ones that we'll use are the cheapest and easiest to get. As we reach the times of peak oil, other forms of energy will become competitive as oil prices rise. It's then we'll see a concerted move towards other forms of energy.

Yep, agreed with that. However, I disagree with what you said earlier about natural gas being the best option. You mention natural gas being the only source of energy that could meet our energy demands if they continued to rise, but that is nonsense. If it weren't for nonrenewable energies being cheaper and massive oil companies monopolizing the energy business, we could have easily put in the time and effort to get a country that ran mostly on renewable energies.

The problem is renewables are more expensive and people are short sighted. They'd rather pay less now and deal with their problems later than pay more now to have a more successful future. As you said, all energy sources have their risks and benefits, however, if we try and think long term for once, I think it is obvious the best solution lies in renewable energies. Technologies are continually improving so renewable energies will only become more efficient and viable sources of energy.
Quoting SPLbeater:


dude...your using too many big words for SPLbeater, lol.


Don't feel bad; few people understand me, verbally or otherwise.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Good. I was going to ask if you take payments through PayPal.

BTW, I like your write up on TS Harvey.


Thanks! Irene's should be most the fun one yet, although also the longest.
Quoting SPLbeater:
got 1 thing to say bout global warming, fossil fuels greenhouse gases and the BS around that topic:

When God made the Earth, he created enough resources within the earth to last the population for the time period he has planned before the Rapture with the tribulation following. therefore, nobody NEEDS to be worrying about saving energy and that kinda stuff. just put faith in the Lord, let him lead.

End of story, lol:)
any questions feel free to mail me, im bored too


I have a question for you. Since no one knows, other than He, when the Rapture will come and we have a good idea as to when the resources will run out, do you believe that you know when the Rapture is coming? Based on this information, of course. Just putting out some food for thought.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't feel bad; few people understand me, verbally or otherwise.


lol, well you can write on a sticky note i understand HALF lol. you can also announce i am more bored then i was sunday xD
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I have a question for you. Since no one knows, other than He, when the Rapture will come and we have a good idea as to when the resources will run out, do you believe that you know when the Rapture is coming? Based on this information, of course. Just putting out some food for thought.


ppl can guess but they will never, NEVER know when the rapture will occur.(as you may have obseved with the old preacher) the bible firmly says that no man shall know when Christ will return for the church, so guessing when he will come back is wasting breath.(which is why we need to be ready, of course) Hope this helps.
man finally the blog (startin) comin alive!!!
Quoting KoritheMan:


XD

Well I was more talking about the MDR, which was inhibited by Africa. For storms closer to home, the TAL%u2122 was indeed the culprit. Hell, I watched Lee fall apart on my doorstep because of subsident flow on the eastern flank of that ridge.
What makes you say that? (bold part)
Quoting SPLbeater:
got 1 thing to say bout global warming, fossil fuels greenhouse gases and the BS around that topic:

When God made the Earth, he created enough resources within the earth to last the population for the time period he has planned before the Rapture with the tribulation following. therefore, nobody NEEDS to be worrying about saving energy and that kinda stuff. just put faith in the Lord, let him lead.

End of story, lol:)
any questions feel free to mail me, im bored too


This is why I hate Christianity. It leads to dangerous mindsets like this one.

Also, no matter how liberal you are, I don't see how it's possible to reconcile the religion with anthropogenic global warming. If you truly believe god is who he says he is, then a corollary of that belief is that he will sustain the Earth no matter what.
Quoting TomTaylor:
What makes you say that? (bold part)


Observing CIMSS SAL products and water vapor imagery throughout the season.

Do you wish to venture an alternate hypothesis?
Link

Look what happened to my Lowe's 10 mile down the road....
Every hurricane season, a few storms engrave themselves on my memory, because of their size, power, beauty, or tragedy incurred.
However, this season, the storm I'll never forget is Don.

Watching Don be instantly vaporized from contact with the dessicated coast of Texas was just astonishing.
Quoting SPLbeater:


ppl can guess but they will never, NEVER know when the rapture will occur.(as you may have obseved with the old preacher) the bible firmly says that no man shall know when Christ will return for the church, so guessing when he will come back is wasting breath.(which is why we need to be ready, of course) Hope this helps.


Not really. Not when you state that He gave us the resources to last until the Rapture and we know these resources are running low now. That would have to imply that the time is coming soon and we can pretty well nail the decade. .. You also seem to neglect to mention that we are His stewards of Earth. I think He kinda expects us to take care of what he put in our charge. Would you agree?
Quoting KoritheMan:


This is why I hate Christianity. It leads to dangerous mindsets like this one.

Also, no matter how liberal you are, I don't see how it's possible to reconcile the religion with anthropogenic global warming. If you truly believe god is who he says he is, then a corollary of that belief is that he will sustain the Earth no matter what.


if you only knew what could take place any second....
Quoting SPLbeater:


if you only knew what could take place any second....


If only I had reason to believe that. Unfortunately I don't.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Not really. Not when you state that He gave us the resources to last until the Rapture and we know these resources are running low now. That would have to imply that the time is coming soon and we can pretty well nail the decade. .. You also seem to neglect to mention that we are His stewards of Earth. I think He kinda expects us to take care of what he put in our charge. Would you agree?


we aint low on nothin. they aint found it yet. nobody will know when the Lord will come back. all guesses are waste of breath
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Every hurricane season, a few storms engrave themselves on my memory, because of their size, power, beauty, or tragedy incurred.
However, this season, the storm I'll never forget is Don.

Watching Don be instantly vaporized from contact with the dessicated coast of Texas was just astonishing.


You could watch the radar and see it evaporate as it came ashore. I have never seen that before.
Quoting SPLbeater:


we aint low on nothin. they aint found it yet. nobody will know when the Lord will come back. all guesses are waste of breath


Right. ... OK
Quoting SPLbeater:
got 1 thing to say bout global warming, fossil fuels greenhouse gases and the BS around that topic:

When God made the Earth, he created enough resources within the earth to last the population for the time period he has planned before the Rapture with the tribulation following. therefore, nobody NEEDS to be worrying about saving energy and that kinda stuff. just put faith in the Lord, let him lead.

End of story, lol:)
any questions feel free to mail me, im bored too

Eschatology is a fascinating subject. Studying it, one begins to understand that most religions believe in some sort of doomsday scenario. Christianity has one, of course, as do Islam, Judaism, Hinduism, Buddhism, Zoroastrianism, and so on. Since those end time scenarios are all scheduled to happen at widely disparate times, one can't help but wonder under which one the planet's natural resources will actually run out. That is, will it be during the any-day-now Christian Rapture? Or perhaps only after the Hindu 8.64 billion-year "Cycle" runs out? If I weren't such a realist, I'd be keeping my fingers crossed for the latter...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You could watch the radar and see it evaporate as it came ashore. I have never seen that before.


Yeah, I sat and watched it on radar with my mouth hanging open. I couldn't believe what I was seeing.
Quoting KoritheMan:


If only I had reason to believe that. Unfortunately I don't.


i aint gon start preachin right here right now, but ik that when your left behind, you will know I and all else who have Christ as their saviour where right-and you will regret turning your back. goodnight
Quoting SPLbeater:


i aint gon start preachin right here right now, but ik that when your left behind, you will know I and all else who have Christ as their saviour where right-and you will regret turning your back. goodnight


Turning my back implies conscious rejection of something I possess intimate knowledge of. As an atheist, I do not believe there is anything there to reject.
245. skook
I'm sure this didn't help the flooding.




Population growth.Thailand Demographics of Thailand Wikipedia.


I believe in that climate change is happening, but I also cringe when people fail to take into account all things. Population has doubled!!! in the last 50 years in Thailand alone. What about destruction of water sheds, destruction of natural drainage, forcing the river to follow our banks, not its own natural ever changing flow through the land. AS the population continues to increase, more and more people will live in vulnerable lands, increasing the the likelihood of this disasters.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Turning my back implies conscious rejection of something I possess intimate knowledge of. As an atheist, I do not believe there is anything there to reject.


you just rejected Christ and the one who gave you life. Sad
Halleluiah!

Gimmie that old time religion!
Quoting skook:
I'm sure this didn't help the flooding.




Population growth.Thailand Demographics of Thailand Wikipedia.


I believe in that climate change is happening, but I also cringe when people fail to take into account all things. Population has doubled!!! in the last 50 years in Thailand alone. What about destruction of water sheds, destruction of natural drainage, forcing the river to follow our banks, not its own natural ever changing flow through the land. AS the population continues to increase, more and more people will live in vulnerable lands, increasing the the likelihood of this disasters.


This is true but, even if no one lived there, the flooding would have been just as severe. The only good point would be that it had no immediate impact on humans.
Quoting KoritheMan:


This is why I hate Christianity. It leads to dangerous mindsets like this one.

Also, no matter how liberal you are, I don't see how it's possible to reconcile the religion with anthropogenic global warming. If you truly believe god is who he says he is, then a corollary of that belief is that he will sustain the Earth no matter what.


Couldn't have said it better. It leads to the doomsday mindset and everyone says it's gonna happen any day now, or if you're Harold Camping who thought it was gonna happen on May 21st and October 21st (and then him and his daughter run away from questions like bait run from sharks), and then everyone starts believing the stuff that comes out of their mouths and they go and waste whatever money they have left and when it doesn't happen, they get ticked off.

I went to a Christian college and I should've known better not to go there because all they did was preach, including this stuff too, not teach. It's better not to believe in the stuff. It gets really "dangerous."
Quoting skook:
I'm sure this didn't help the flooding.




Population growth.Thailand Demographics of Thailand Wikipedia.


I believe in that climate change is happening, but I also cringe when people fail to take into account all things. Population has doubled!!! in the last 50 years in Thailand alone. What about destruction of water sheds, destruction of natural drainage, forcing the river to follow our banks, not its own natural ever changing flow through the land. AS the population continues to increase, more and more people will live in vulnerable lands, increasing the the likelihood of this disasters.


Unfortunately, that makes every disaster worse.
Quoting caneswatch:


Couldn't have said it better. It leads to the doomsday mindset and everyone says it's gonna happen any day now, or if you're Harold Camping who thought it was gonna happen on May 21st and October 21st (and then him and his daughter run away from questions like bait run from sharks), and then everyone starts believing the stuff that comes out of their mouths and they go and waste whatever money they have left and when it doesn't happen, they get ticked off.

I went to a Christian college and I should've known better not to go there because all they did was preach, including this stuff too, not teach. It's better not to believe in the stuff. It gets really "dangerous."


Just to clarify, I don't have a vendetta against religion as a whole, just the Abrahamic ones (although Judaism seems pretty cool).
My grandfather used to warn me not to mock The Lord.

So I would go around behind him all day saying MOCK MOCK MOCK.

He was a big fan of the Rapture. He sold life insurance.
Quoting FrankZapper:
My grandfather used to warn me not to mock The Lord.

So I would go around behind him all day saying MOCK MOCK MOCK..

He was a big fan of the Rapture. He sold life insurance.


lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


Observing CIMSS SAL products and water vapor imagery throughout the season.

Do you wish to venture an alternate hypothesis?
Yeah that's my problem, using the SAL product and water vapor imagery to reach that conclusion is sketchy at best. I'd recommend using PSD reanalysis over those methods.

On that note, from what I found using the reanalysis data, there was a slightly stronger pressure gradient between the Azores high and Saharan heat low in the lower levels of the atmosphere around 20-30N just off the coast of Africa. This would theoretically blow off more African dust than normal, which is roughly reflected in the humidity plots which do show it being slightly drier over the Atlantic, west of Africa. The only problem I have is that the majority of the dryness is showing up in the deep tropics. I suppose that SAL could work it's way down there, but earlier I was thinking it was more a result of the global circulation over the tropics since I didn't think the SAL would have such an influence all the way down at the equator. Your explanation seems to be the best one yet though, so I'll just leave it at that.





Quoting KoritheMan:


Just to clarify, I don't have a vendetta against religion as a whole, just the Abrahamic ones (although Judaism seems pretty cool).


I know, I was just talking about Christianity.

Other religions I have an interest in.
256. skook
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This is true but, even if no one lived there, the flooding would have been just as severe. The only good point would be that it had no immediate impact on humans.




Let takes a river, city "a" puts up dikes and such, to protect their city from the yearly floods that may take place, Cities down stream try to do the same, restricting the flow of the river, and forcing it in a certain path. Eventually you have a city that years ago never experienced such severe flooding because it would be spread out over an entire basin, not only certain areas of the river.

"When the developer destroyed the wetland, they destroyed the 'natural sponge' that could soak up much of the downpour, thus minimizing the effect of flooding," said Wilson in her testimony.

In two flood reports this spring -- "Floods, Death and Wetlands Destruction" and "$ubsidizing Disaster," the Club found that those states suffering the greatest loss of life and property -- California, Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana and Iowa -- were those that have lost the most wetlands (more than 80 percent), and that U.S. taxpayers pay $7 billion annually for federal programs that destroy wetlands and thereby increase the risk of flood damage.

"Over the last four years, floods have killed 500 people and destroyed $33 billion in homes and property," said Brett Hulsey, Midwest regional representative and lead author of the reports. "Yet the Interior Department itself has identified more than 40 federal programs that encourage wetlands destruction and development in floodplains."

Protecting Wetlands Will Decrease Flooding, Say New Club Reports

The Planet, June 1997, Volume 4, number 5

by John Byrne Barry
http://www.sierraclub.org/planet/199706/wetlands. asp


We need to look at the entire picture, and realize there is more than just "climate change" occuring.
Quoting caneswatch:


I know, I was just talking about Christianity.

Other religions I have an interest in.


I still possess an academic interest in Christianity.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah that's my problem, using the SAL product and water vapor imagery to reach that conclusion is sketchy at best. I'd recommend using PSD reanalysis over those methods.

On that note, from what I found using the reanalysis data, there was a slightly stronger pressure gradient between the Azores high and Saharan heat low in the lower levels of the atmosphere around 20-30N just off the coast of Africa. This would theoretically blow off more African dust than normal, which is roughly reflected in the humidity plots which do show it being slightly drier over the Atlantic, west of Africa. However, the problem I have with this explanation is the equatorial region is really the area that was anomalously dry this year. If we look at TPW anomalies, the majority of the dry air was centered around the equator to 5N. While the SAL certainly has some influence on the moisture over that region, it usually does not extend that deep into the tropics and the region where the anomalously strong winds were occurring coming off Africa was up around 20-30N, which is pretty far from the deep tropics.




Unfortunately, I don't have a good explanation as to why this is such a dry area but I'd have to say it has something to do with the global circulation over the deep tropics, and not just the SAL.


I'm too lazy to look atm, but couldn't it have also been at least partially related to a strong Azores/Bermuda high driving subsident flow into developing systems?
Quoting SPLbeater:


you just rejected Christ and the one who gave you life. Sad
The meeting of his father's sperm and his mother's egg produced his life.

Ever seen a Biology book before? They can come in handy...
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm too lazy to look atm, but couldn't it have also been at least partially related to a strong Azores/Bermuda high driving subsident flow into developing systems?
Edited my post, sorry. I agree with you now lol.

The anomalously strong gradient between the Azores high and Saharan heat low produced stronger NE trade winds coming off Africa which pushed more dry air into the Atlantic towards the equator. I believe there could have been other factors at work, but I can't list any and your explanation makes the most sense to me.
Quoting skook:




Let takes a river, city "a" puts up dikes and such, to protect their city from the yearly floods that may take place, Cities down stream try to do the same, restricting the flow of the river, and forcing it in a certain path. Eventually you have a city that years ago never experienced such severe flooding because it would be spread out over an entire basin, not only certain areas of the river.

"When the developer destroyed the wetland, they destroyed the 'natural sponge' that could soak up much of the downpour, thus minimizing the effect of flooding," said Wilson in her testimony.

In two flood reports this spring -- "Floods, Death and Wetlands Destruction" and "$ubsidizing Disaster," the Club found that those states suffering the greatest loss of life and property -- California, Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana and Iowa -- were those that have lost the most wetlands (more than 80 percent), and that U.S. taxpayers pay $7 billion annually for federal programs that destroy wetlands and thereby increase the risk of flood damage.

"Over the last four years, floods have killed 500 people and destroyed $33 billion in homes and property," said Brett Hulsey, Midwest regional representative and lead author of the reports. "Yet the Interior Department itself has identified more than 40 federal programs that encourage wetlands destruction and development in floodplains."

Protecting Wetlands Will Decrease Flooding, Say New Club Reports

The Planet, June 1997, Volume 4, number 5

by John Byrne Barry
http://www.sierraclub.org/planet/199706/wetlands. asp


We need to look at the entire picture, and realize there is more than just "climate change" occuring.


Again, true. We are not talking about the U.S. and its massive levee systems. We are talking about Thailand and its comparative lack of these structures.

"Meanwhile, the Thai government should plan irrigation or levee systems to prevent future flooding." - This quote came from this link - Do you see bigger mistakes being planned here?
262. skook
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Again, true. We are not talking about the U.S. and its massive levee systems. We are talking about Thailand and its comparative lack of these structures.

"Meanwhile, the Thai government should plan irrigation or levee systems to prevent future flooding." - This quote came from this link - Do you see bigger mistakes being planned here?



I agree its on the scale of levee's in the United States. (terms of levees)

This is taken from cnn.

"Until now, they had hoped that strengthening flood barriers and widening canals would keep populated areas safe.

But now the government is trying a different tack: opening floodgates to relieve pressure on dams and levees and send the water toward the sea.

The decision to divert water through canals in Bangkok means parts of the city, and its surrounding suburbs such as Rangsit, are flooded."
Link

the major cities do have flood walls, levees...etc protecting themselves, but only making it worst for others outside the protected area. With the huge population growth increase, more and more people will be living in and around the river, destroying wetlands along with forestation, to create homes for themselves. I am not trying to make light of the current flooding occurring, just trying to paint the entire picture.

NWS confirmed a few tornadoes that occurred in NY yesterday.
264. skook
This quote came from this link - Do you see bigger mistakes being planned here?



When i read that, it kinda reminded me how we think we can control the Mississippi... I am all for for protecting peoples property, but someone is gonna take the "hit" During the recent Floods in PA, I know west pittson iirc took a major hit from the flooding, due to lack of levees, while other cities had them near them. maybe we should "embrace" the flooding such as the egyptians did......there is no easy fix for any of these issues in my opinion, and our currently solutions only protect the more affluent areas.
Quoting skook:



I agree its on the scale of levee's in the United States. (terms of levees)

This is taken from cnn.

"Until now, they had hoped that strengthening flood barriers and widening canals would keep populated areas safe.

But now the government is trying a different tack: opening floodgates to relieve pressure on dams and levees and send the water toward the sea.

The decision to divert water through canals in Bangkok means parts of the city, and its surrounding suburbs such as Rangsit, are flooded."
Link

the major cities do have flood walls, levees...etc protecting themselves, but only making it worst for others outside the protected area. With the huge population growth increase, more and more people will be living in and around the river, destroying wetlands along with forestation, to create homes for themselves. I am not trying to make light of the current flooding occurring, just trying to paint the entire picture.



The levees protecting any nearby cities would have had little impact on anyone downstream due to the amount of rain they received any way.

The article I posted also said that much of the damage was done from mudslides. Any levees upstream would not have had an impact on this. The amount of local rain received caused that damage.

You are correct that all of the damage was not due to just the amount of rain they received. The fact that the amount of rain they did receive was extreme remains the same.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm too lazy to look atm, but couldn't it have also been at least partially related to a strong Azores/Bermuda high driving subsident flow into developing systems?
Okay, another hypothesis I have is that the anomalous amount of moisture centered over Africa created anomalous rising air over the area. This anomalous rising air caused anomalous sinking air over the equatorial Atlantic region.

This hypothesis is supported very well by PSD reanalysis data, perhaps even stronger than the SAL idea. Evidence comes from vector wind anomalies over the tropical region of the Atlantic during the 2011 hurricane season. Based on these wind anomalies, it is very clear that the trade winds in the low levels of the atmosphere were weaker than average (more westerly than average), and that upper level winds were more easterly than average. This supports the idea of anomalous rising air over the African continent since air is pushing towards the area in the low levels and pushing away at the upper levels. TPW and OLR analysis also reveals that the area over equatorial Africa was much wetter than average which further supports anomalous rising air. To tie this into the MDR/equatorial Atlantic, the vector winds reveal that at the low levels of the atmosphere the trade winds were lighter and moving in the opposite direction indicating surface divergence. Meanwhile, in the upper levels of the atmosphere vector winds show strong winds coming off the African continent and moving toward the equatorial Atlantic region which would support upper convergence. Upper convergence and lower divergence means anomalous sinking air which inhibits convection (rising air) and produces more dry air.


200mb 2011 Wind Vector Anomalies for Jul-Oct




850mb 2011 Wind Vector Anomalies for Jul-Oct




OLR 2011 Wind Vector Anomalies for Jul-Oct




TPW 2011 Wind Vector Anomalies for Jul-Oct

267. skook
Quoting skook:



When i read that, it kinda reminded me how we think we can control the Mississippi... I am all for for protecting peoples property, but someone is gonna take the "hit" During the recent Floods in PA, I know west pittson iirc took a major hit from the flooding, due to lack of levees, while other cities had them near them came out fairly Unscathed . maybe we should "embrace" the flooding such as the egyptians did......there is no easy fix for any of these issues in my opinion, and our currently solutions only protect the more affluent areas.
Quoting skook:



When i read that, it kinda reminded me how we think we can control the Mississippi... I am all for for protecting peoples property, but someone is gonna take the "hit" During the recent Floods in PA, I know west pittson iirc took a major hit from the flooding, due to lack of levees, while other cities had them near them. maybe we should "embrace" the flooding such as the egyptians did......there is no easy fix for any of these issues in my opinion, and our currently solutions only protect the more affluent areas.


I am still trying to find something I can disagree with you on. You have not yet shown where I can disagree with you. ... Keep trying. ;-)
Quoting Skyepony:
T-27 days til the first TX town is out of water..


This is not looking good. Who's next and when?

Anyone with any extra rain? Texas will take it. COD only!

See post# 172
Africa had some horrific drought & impressive dust storms this year. TX too. There certainly seemed a hamper on anything in the Gulf of Mexico or near Africa.

Another factor..the length of time ENSO was Neg or near Neg. The strong La Nina last winter as well. La Nina just doesn't put up the sort of moisture in the atmosphere on a global scale like a strong El Nino, or even neutral.. It's almost like the La Nina & it's droughts injects dust & earth particles in the atmosphere that the moisture from the following eventual El Nino venting heat can settle on to make rain. I've seen it said that El Nino is the mother of cloud seeding..but the dust & bacteria that moisture eventually gathers on to make rain..the seed, seems more the child of drought/La Nina.
Quoting Skyepony:
Africa had some horrific drought & impressive dust storms this year. TX too. There certainly seemed a hamper on anything in the Gulf of Mexico or near Africa.

Another factor..the length of time ENSO was Neg or near Neg. The strong La Nina last winter as well. La Nina just doesn't put up the sort of moisture in the atmosphere on a global scale like a strong El Nino, or even neutral.. It's almost like the La Nina & it's droughts injects dust & earth particles in the atmosphere that the moisture from the following eventual El Nino venting heat can settle on to make rain. I've seen it said that El Nino is the mother of cloud seeding..but the dust & bacteria that moisture eventually gathers on to make rain..the seed, seems more the child of drought/La Nina.
Which parts of Africa are you referring to Sky?

And about the ENSO...Although we were in a La Nina, ENSO regions 1 & 2 were neutral to positive during most of the season which would certainly have an influence on the tropical Atlantic.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This is not looking good. Who's next and when?

Anyone with any extra rain? Texas will take it. COD only!



There was a few towns mentioned in the article.. 7 towns may run out of water by the end of the year. 17 are on the endangered list.. (I can't remember the names..trying too hard not to make end of resources/rapture references.)
Quoting Skyepony:


There was a few towns mentioned in the article.. 7 towns may run out of water by the end of the year. 17 are on the endangered list.. (I can't remember the names..trying too hard not to make end of resources/rapture references.)


I will tell you, Skye. I wish everyone would take the time and make the efforts that you have towards consuming less, conserving what they use and recycling what they discard. ..... I am all for pushing this rapture thing further down the road. ;-)

BTW - Goodnight all! I seem to be running out of energy tonight. ;-)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Which parts of Africa are you referring to Sky?

And about the ENSO...Although we were in a La Nina, ENSO regions 1 & 2 were neutral to positive during most of the season which would certainly have an influence on the tropical Atlantic.


East Africa/ Horn of Africa..having it's worst drought in atleast 60 years.. Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya. Death toll is predicted to top out around 750,000.. You really hadn't heard?

Even region 3 made it to neutral briefly like I'd expected & TX & other places had a trickle down shower to dance in.. Even some areas like sub tropical Atlantic & Caribbean showed some spikes in instability briefly toward the end of the season, the return to a weak La Nina looks to have taken it's hold there as well once again. It's going to take more than a brief neutral to clear the air. Needs a lot of warm ocean (El Nino or atleast a warm neutral) with the cooler air aloft to get the moisture on the winds to wash out these droughts.
Quoting Skyepony:


East Africa/ Horn of Africa..having it's worst drought in atleast 60 years.. Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya. Death toll is predicted to top out around 750,000.. You really hadn't heard?

Even region 3 made it to neutral briefly like I'd expected & TX & other places had a trickle down shower to dance in.. Even some areas like sub tropical Atlantic & Caribbean showed some spikes in instability briefly toward the end of the season, the return to a weak La Nina looks to have taken it's hold there as well once again. It's going to take more than a brief neutral to clear the air. Needs a lot of warm ocean (El Nino or atleast a warm neutral) with the cooler air aloft to get the moisture on the winds to wash out these droughts.
...oh right. No, I had heard, just forgot. Pretty pathetic, I know.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I will tell you, Skye. I wish everyone would take the time and make the efforts that you have towards consuming less, conserving what they use and recycling what they discard. ..... I am all for pushing this rapture thing further down the road. ;-)

BTW - Goodnight all! I seem to be running out of energy tonight. ;-)


Thanks Rookie. I try & get people to see they could have alot more money/time, eat way better & not miss what they've been wasting. Even the time & effort..I don't have to take so much time to work for money because I don't spend as much & there is so much less effort in shopping since much of what I need is growing free within a few yards of the door.

I think I'm out for the night too.
Good Evening all.
President Obama has landed in Canberra Australia.
You can follow the events here.


Click for full size image.
Quoting caneswatch:


Couldn't have said it better. It leads to the doomsday mindset and everyone says it's gonna happen any day now, or if you're Harold Camping who thought it was gonna happen on May 21st and October 21st (and then him and his daughter run away from questions like bait run from sharks), and then everyone starts believing the stuff that comes out of their mouths and they go and waste whatever money they have left and when it doesn't happen, they get ticked off.

I went to a Christian college and I should've known better not to go there because all they did was preach, including this stuff too, not teach. It's better not to believe in the stuff. It gets really "dangerous."
I went to a CATHOLIC University.

Had to take Theology for 3 years AND Christian Philosophy for 3 years.

I just didn't have it in me to write those Term Papers so I would pay an English major to come up with some BS.

I got A and B most of the time.

I had to have an oral exam one time and I told the Priest "my mind has gone blank". He said Jesus understood and gave me a B.
Quoting KoritheMan:


This is why I hate Christianity. It leads to dangerous mindsets like this one.

Also, no matter how liberal you are, I don't see how it's possible to reconcile the religion with anthropogenic global warming. If you truly believe god is who he says he is, then a corollary of that belief is that he will sustain the Earth no matter what.
Not really. AGW simply supports the theory that it is mankind's sinful state that will lead to the destruction of the earth as we know it. And since the Bible also states that the love of money is the root of all evil, this all seems to work together [i.e. adding to AGW so big oil and other large corporations can stay rich and powerful]. You need to read Revalations to see that AGW actually fits the scenario to a T.

Of course, that means the anti-AGW crowd that says it opposes AGW on religious grounds are actually not as "holy" as they think they are.... lol ... quite the opposite, in fact.

Of course, this is merely argumentative. God will do what He wants for His purpose. I have yet to understand how pple who can't forecast the wx 10 days out feel they can forecast the date of the Rapture....

Quoting Skyepony:


Thanks Rookie. I try & get people to see they could have alot more money/time, eat way better & not miss what they've been wasting. Even the time & effort..I don't have to take so much time to work for money because I don't spend as much & there is so much less effort in shopping since much of what I need is growing free within a few yards of the door.

I think I'm out for the night too.
Food tastes better, too. My mom started growing broccili in her back garden; since then I have a hard time going back to the "storebought" variety when hers is out of season. Fresh grown has genuine flavor.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Turning my back implies conscious rejection of something I possess intimate knowledge of. As an atheist, I do not believe there is anything there to reject.


I think people of faith often believe that an atheist is just batting for a different team.

To me, the atheist is playing a different sport . . .
Quoting BahaHurican:
Food tastes better, too. My mom started growing broccili in her back garden; since then I have a hard time going back to the "storebought" variety when hers is out of season. Fresh grown has genuine flavor.


I second this. Pull a carot out of the ground, wash it and eat it... ye gods I understand Bugs Bunny!
Quoting chimera245:


I think people of faith often believe that an atheist is just batting for a different team.

To me, the atheist is playing a different sport . . .


Besides there are lots of other choices besides athiest and believer. For example:

- We are god. we invented ourselves.

- We are all parts of god. We are his dreams and thoughts.

- The entire universe is alive (similar to the two above and like the gospel of Christ in the movie Stigmata)

- God exists but is irrelevent. If god tells me to be evil, god is not god. If god tells me to be good, god is god but I would be good anyway. God in this sense is only a protector (perhaps) or a punisher (perhaps), but there are good reasons to believe in niether of those options and in any case worshipping a deliverer or punisher is a sort of pagan concept.

Of course there is the existentialish concept that god is good, that worship of god is being good. This concept, I think, is a sort of buddist enlightenment concept (by rejecting the dualist concepts) and maybe a high level Christian one, but I can only think, in my life, of a few people who come close to this ideal.

Of course, that may be just the class of people who associate with me : )

But destroying the earth seems a bad choice no matter what form of existence we chose mentally.
Scientists find two 'sunken islands' off WA - part of Gondwana land link



SCIENTISTS have discovered two huge sunken islands in the Indian Ocean west of Perth.

The islands, about the size of Tasmania, were once part of the supercontinent Gondwana and are more than 1.5km underwater.

Researchers from the University of Sydney, Macquarie University and the University of Tasmania say the islands were once above water and formed part of the last link between India and Australia.

They made the discovery while mapping the seafloor of the Perth Abyssal Plain.

“The data collected on the voyage could significantly change our understanding of the way in which India, Australia and Antarctica broke off from Gondwana,” University of Sydney geologist Dr Joanne Whittaker said.

The scientists returned to Perth last week after carrying out the complicated task of dredging up hundreds of kilograms of rock samples from the steep slopes of the two islands during a three-week expedition aboard CSIRO vessel Southern Surveyor.


“We expected to see common oceanic rocks such as basalt in the dredge, but were surprised to see continental rocks such as granite, gneiss and sandstone containing fossils,” University of Sydney’s chief expedition scientist Dr Simon Williams said.

“A detailed analysis of the rocks dredged up during the voyage will tell us about their age and how they fit into the Gondwana jigsaw.”

The islands, called ‘micro-continents’, were formed when India began to move away from Australia, about 130 million years ago during the Cretaceous period, when dinosaurs roamed the Earth.

They became stranded thousands of kilometres from either coast as the land masses separated, the scientists say.

“The sunken islands charted during the expedition have flat tops, which indicates they were once at sea level before being gradually submerged,” Dr Whittaker said.

“Our preliminary analysis of the magnetic data that we collected could cause us to rethink the plate tectonic story for the whole of the Eastern Indian Ocean,” she said.
November threatens to be driest on record in Brisbane

BRISBANE has recorded the driest start to November since 1919 and if there is no rain by Saturday morning - which is the forecast - it will be the driest on record.

There is little prospect of rain until next month and the city and dam catchments are drying out rapidly.

Ironically, the State Government this week approved the release of 5 per cent of the Wivenhoe Dam catchment in an effort to reduce capacity to 75 per cent because of fears of a repeat of the summer of disaster.

The dry conditions have been exacerbated by unusually hot weather. Brisbane had a top of 31.8C yesterday, although it was much hotter in the CBD. Birdsville made 43.8C.

Weather Channel meteorologist Dick Whitaker said last November also was relatively dry, following a wet September and preceding a flood-bearing December.

"We did have a case back in 1842 where no rain was recorded in November, but we tend to disregard those old records because we don't think they were taken regularly, which makes them a bit dodgy," he said.

"As for the outlook, we'd have to rely on historical records and they are that December is usually one of the wetter months, so we may have to wait until then for a break in the dry."

Mr Whitaker said the dry winter had created vastly different conditions to last year when all catchments were soaked, leading into a record-breaking wet season.

"This time it's looking a lot different for catchments, although one cyclone can change everything," he said.

A total of 57,000 ML will be released from Wivenhoe Dam from Friday. This is expected to take five to seven days and residents will be allowed to use as much water as they like until November 27.

University of Queensland dam engineer Hubert Chanson said there could be few more critical decisions in a drought-prone environment than to let go 25 per cent, or 1.5 years of drinking supplies, from Wivenhoe.

He said the reduction was at best of minor benefit in terms of protecting from flooding.

Any benefits would be lessened further when it was taken into account that the Lockyer and Bremer catchments below Wivenhoe had flooded Brisbane before.

Professor Chanson said the Government should investigate opportunities for water storage or flood mitigation in these catchments.

If each resident used an extra 20L per day, as occurred when restrictions were eased during the floods clean-up, about 1000ML more would be used.
I think next Sunday-Tuesday is Texas's last chance for rain as the Southeast Ridge(subtropical ridge) over Cuba/Florida is expected to break down towards Thanksgiving Day!!!
some clouds east of the windwards
Several Tornadoes hit Miss. last night and not a sole posted any warnings last night!

11/16/2011 0507 am

7 miles NW of Laurel, Jones County.

Tornado, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Likely tornado... three homes damaged with people trapped
inside in Shady Grove community





11/16/2011 0507 am

7 miles NW of Laurel, Jones County.

Tornado, reported by amateur radio.


Possible tornado damage to a home along Hwy 28 in Shady
Grove community

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northwestern Choctaw County in southwest Alabama...


* until 730 am CST

* at 635 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 18 miles
southeast of Meridian... or 15 miles west of Lisman... moving
northeast at 50 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Mollie... Yantley... Pushmataha...
Halsell... Cyril... Cromwell...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in manufactured homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 am CST Wednesday morning
for southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi.

DAMMM!

11/16/2011 0314 am

1 miles W of Tangipahoa, Tangipahoa Parish.

Tornado, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Follow-up on earlier tornado report near the town of
Tangipahoa. A two story house was lifted and moved 10
feet from foundation.
An unoccupied semi-tractor trailer
was thrown.




11/16/2011 0314 am

1 miles W of Tangipahoa, Tangipahoa Parish.

Tornado, reported by law enforcement.


Public reports of tornado touch down near I-55 Exit 57
near the town of Tangipahoa and E. Peckerwoods Road. Oak
trees downed across the Road, trampoline blown away and
other indications of tornado damage in the area.

A couple of these tornadoes may have been EF-3 maybe EF-4.
11/16/2011 0335 am

1 miles se of Houma, Terrebonne Parish.

Tornado, reported by Emergency Mngr.


Confirmed tornado touch down near Houma-Terrebonne
Airport. Windows blown out at ellender Memorial High
School on Patriot drive. Other homes and structures
damaged on piping rock drive. Emergency manager enroute
to assess damages. Report preliminary with additional
details forthcoming after assessment.


Tuscaloosa NOAA Weatheradio Out of Service
Bill Murray | 6:50 am November 16, 2011 | Comments (0) There are two things you need to do to stack the odds in a tornado situation:

1. Be able to get the warning
2. Have a plan that gets you in a safe place

Do these two things and you will survive nearly any tornado.

Having said that, always have multiple ways to get the warning. NOAA Weatheradio is one of the best ways, but it is not infallible.

The NWS Birmingham reports that the Tuscaloosa transmitter is out of service. Please monitor other sources of severe weather information this morning and let friends, family and neighbors know.

Tornado South of University of Alabama!

0914 1 W TANGIPAHOA TANGIPAHOA LA 3088 9053 FOLLOW-UP ON EARLIER TORNADO REPORT NEAR THE TOWN OF TANGIPAHOA. A TWO STORY HOUSE WAS LIFTED AND MOVED 10 FEET FROM FOUNDATION. AN UNOCCUPIED SEMI-TRACTOR TRAILER WAS (LIX)

0935 1 SE HOUMA TERREBONNE LA 2957 9070 CONFIRMED TORNADO TOUCH DOWN NEAR HOUMA-TERREBONNE AIRPORT. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AT ELLENDER MEMORIAL HIGH SCHOOL ON PATRIOT DRIVE. OTHER HOMES AND STRUCTURES DAMAGED ON P (LIX)

1013 BUNKER HILL MARION MS 3139 8980 LIKELY TORNADO ... UP TO A QUARTER MILE WIDE SWATH OF TREES DOWN ALONG BUNKER HILL AND GRICE ROADS ... TREES DOWN ON A FEW HOUSES AND SHEDS DESTROYED ... REPORTED BY MARION S (JAN)

1107 7 NW LAUREL JONES MS 3177 8923 LIKELY TORNADO ... THREE HOMES DAMAGED WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED INSIDE IN SHADY GROVE COMMUNITY (JAN)
1130 MOSS JONES MS 3182 8918 LIKELY TORNADO IN MOSS AREA ... NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND PROPERTY DAMAGE ... REPORTED BY JASPER CO EMA AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS (JAN)
Almost timne for Thanksgiving!

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Tuscaloosa NOAA Weatheradio Out of Service
Bill Murray | 6:50 am November 16, 2011 | Comments (0) There are two things you need to do to stack the odds in a tornado situation:

1. Be able to get the warning
2. Have a plan that gets you in a safe place

Do these two things and you will survive nearly any tornado.

Having said that, always have multiple ways to get the warning. NOAA Weatheradio is one of the best ways, but it is not infallible.

The NWS Birmingham reports that the Tuscaloosa transmitter is out of service. Please monitor other sources of severe weather information this morning and let friends, family and neighbors know.



People in Tuscaloosa should be able to get the transmitter out of Birmingham on 162.555 MHz with no problem. Pretty exciting day down here near Montgomery. The squall line was narrow and moving at about 40 knots, which is a good thing, since I got 1.26 inches of rain in 22 minutes. I was the Skywarn net controller when we got hit by a real gust front, with the highest gust of 52 mph and average one minute winds of 42 mph. I'm surprised I didn't lose power or any of my radio antennas. Some trees down and minor structure damage as the squall line passed through, but I don't think we got any tornadoes. There were a few good hook echos just east of us, but I haven't heard if any of them were actually tornados on the ground. No hail and very little lightning, which is unusual for these fall storms in the South.