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Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters
Tanker Drop
Tanker Drop
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Jet Ski dock
Jet Ski dock
Business is slow here this summer.
The Marina
The Marina
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston

Drought Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

(Enter stage right)97L Pre- I storm?
Oh boy.
3002. P451
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Harvey, if 93L makes it, will just add to the record pf weakness for this season. 8th tropical storm. I can't believe it. Hopefully 97L will break this absurd chain of tiny storms that barely deserve a name.



If you think about it we may have already had the 8th and 9th. This may be the 10th.

Early in the season a BOC system seemed to make the leap before landfall but it was not upgraded - this may be in the post - but more likely given TD status not TS status.

Same can be said for 96L which looked identical to Gert, Franklin, and Cindy when they all were upgraded. While it did not persist as long it certainly had the same appearance as those which were upgraded.
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Harvey, if 93L makes it, will just add to the record of weakness for this season. 8th tropical storm, I can't believe it.

Hopefully 97L will break this absurd chain of tiny storms that barely deserve a name.

Hey NOLA... I gotta admit, if I'm gonna have a streak of 7-8 in a row before Aug 21, I'd rather it be the TSes than the hurricanes, like the EPac is doing. 7 hurricanes in a row is cool for the EPac, because with this setup they're almost certain to go out to sea. If we'd have gotten those 7, we'd have had multiple massive landfalls - all before the height of the season!
3004. Patrap
Please..dont quote idiocy, dont banter on about those disrupting the thread.

Folks want to see info..not recess games.

Thanx
Quoting Vincent4989:

Where?!?!


Stop quoting and feeding the trolls.
3006. Dennis8
Quoting uptxcoast:
Heat watch: Today may be August’s hottest

Please, make it stop.

Houston hit 103 degrees Wednesday and it could get hotter today.

So far this summer, and alas it’s far from over, College Station, Huntsville, Conroe and Houston’s Hobby Airport have all beaten the record for the most 100-degree days in 1980.

Bush Intercontinental, Houston’s official weather site, now has just four to break its record as well.

Of course we’ve already set the record for most 100-degree days in a row, with 17 and counting, breaking a streak of 14 recorded in 1980

At least we’re not going to set a record high temperature for today, as it doesn’t look like we’ll get to 108 degrees, which the city recorded in 1909. Interestingly that’s just 1 degree below the warmest temperature ever measured in Houston, 109 degrees, reached Sept. 4, 2000.

I remember that brutal first week of September 11 years ago, do you?

FORECAST

The high pressure ridge remains in place, and should be strongest today before beginning to slightly weaken Friday, according to the National Weather Service. This slight weakening could open the door to showers Friday, but expect them to be isolated.

Other than that it’s business as usual, with today probably reaching 103 to 105 degrees, and highs across most areas in Houston north of downtown reaching 100 through the early part of next week.

Link

Record drought at root of area trees' deaths

Texas' historic drought is taking a toll on trees in parks and other public spaces, a problem complicated by restrictions on outdoor water use imposed by Houston-area cities.

In Galveston, which banned outdoor watering last week but relaxed the restrictions this week, officials are struggling to protect 8,000 trees planted to replace those killed by Hurricane Ike in 2008. A company hired to plant and maintain the trees is using non-drinkable water to irrigate them.

In Houston, hundreds of trees in Memorial Park and other city parks have perished.

Galveston officials on Tuesday loosened the city's ban on outdoor watering to allow residents to water landscaped areas before 10 a.m. and after 8 p.m. on designated days. The decision came after the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality rescinded its Aug. 11 mandate to eliminate all outdoor lawn and landscape watering in cities that draw water from the Brazos River Basin.

Link


I am in the Heights..yesterday 10 degrees and 18 days and counting above 100 degrees.....last time it was this hot 1980 I was s senior in HS..time flies!
I'm going to put the LLCOC near 16.2N 79.0W movement to the W-WNW speed it slowing down
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Harvey, if 93L makes it, will just add to the record of weakness for this season. 8th tropical storm, I can't believe it.

Hopefully 97L will break this absurd chain of tiny storms that barely deserve a name.




doesn't surprise me at all....i dont even expect major development until august 15th on. it's not out of the realm of possibilities to get a large cane in the atlantic region w/ a deep drop in millibars before august 15th, but it usually doesn't happen. however we are moving through the alphabet relatively fast compared to say, 2004 katrina (k) 8/25.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.

I see TD8
3012. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)






Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.


Yes, it's definitely gotten itself alot more compact.
3014. Dennis8
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'm going to put the LLCOC near 16.2N 79.0W movement to the W-WNW speed it slowing down


right on..headed for Belize...
93L structure looks to be consolidating some, slowing down a little it seems. despite of it running over very warm waters, there are other factors needed for this to come together completely. it looks to be working these out. mornin pat
Levi, Misswx, miami, any experts on here think once Harvey develops, could it make it to hurricane status?
97L is getting better organized.
Quoting AllStar17:
Looks like Belize or even a little farther northward with 93L. I wonder if it can get into the BOC.

If it does, looks like it'd stay pretty low, with a second landfall in the vicinity of Veracruz.
Quoting IceCoast:


What a hypocritical statement. I see you quote and feed the trolls on this blog on a daily basis. You are no better then him, or any of the trolls on this site.
Jason is not a troll, he has been on this site for a good 3 years now. A pain at times, yes, a troll, no.
Time: 14:39:00Z
Coordinates: 17.0833N 66.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,728 meters (~ 25,354 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 413 meters (~ 1,355 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 44° at 8 knots (From the NE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: -19.0°C* (~ -2.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Quoting AussieStorm:

This is what Goulburn Dam looked like before the drought here broke.





This is now. Bit of a change.



I hope everyone in Tx has this sort of change soon.


Thanks Aussie. :) Gives me some hope to see that.
Quoting IceCoast:


What a hypocritical statement. I see you quote and feed the trolls on this blog on a daily basis. You are no better then him, or any of the trolls on this site.


I don't quote the trolls, if you are referring to last night, it wasn't a troll. What an unecessary statement to make. I come on here to learn, I want to be a meteorologist someday, but when trolls are on here, that kinda interferes with that.
Quoting JasonCoolMan2012:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108140037
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END WOW is finally form!!!!!!!


hey Jason please stop it. It may seem funny to you but to other its not don't worry we will have a renumber soon and when it happen you can post it till your computer breaks but until then please please please stop please
3027. Dennis8
In June 2001, Tropical Storm Allison dumped up to 40 inches (1,000 mm) of rain on parts of Houston, causing the worst flooding in the city's history; the storm cost billions of dollars in damage and killed 20 people in Texas

WE NEED RAIN BUT NOT THIS...I remember that night. I was reporting for Channel 13 and I could not empty the 5" rain gauge quick enough..hourly rates 4-5" briefly and 30 " at my house overnight.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hey Jason please stop it. It may seem funny to you but to other its not don't worry we will have a renumber soon and when it happen you can post it till your computer breaks but until then please please please stop please


He's not even good at it. Forgot to change the date.
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







It's interesting to see that most of the dynamic model are now taking 93L into the GoH, where last run only one of them was.
TD8 is so tiny
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.
Niiiice... very good illustration of the difference between big / pretty and TC ready....

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hey Jason please stop it. It may seem funny to you but to other its not don't worry we will have a renumber soon and when it happen you can post it till your computer breaks but until then please please please stop please

+9 [googol]
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Jason is not a troll, he has been on this site for a good 3 years now. A pain at times, yes, a troll, no.


Even patrap told us not to quote him.
Quoting Dennis8:


right on..headed for Belize...

I say more like the Yucatan, or the Yuc.Channel
steering has changed alot it showing more of a WNW-NW movement
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's interesting to see that most of the dynamic model are now taking 93L into the GoH, where last run only one of them was.
This is most likely because the have been repositioning the center farther north each new model run. Over the last 24 hours it has gained 0.8 degrees of latitude.
15.9N/79.5W
Quoting tropicfreak:
Levi, Misswx, miami, any experts on here think once Harvey develops, could it make it to hurricane status?

I'm not an expert, but if 93L goes more toward the north, that means more time over water. 93L has organized a lot in 3 days. Hurricanes can organize fast in the W CARR. I'd say 80mph hurricane if it can gain some latitude.
accuweather mentioning that system in central atlantic could possibly recurve in or around Bahamas

that would be great news but again, I am stunned. With a High that big projected by the end of next week, what the heck could barrell through that thing!
the advisory is not issued yet and some of you guys already consider it as a TD?
Anyway, back to the tropics at hand.
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's interesting to see that most of the dynamic model are now taking 93L into the GoH, where last run only one of them was.
Most likely in response to better organization this a.m.
Okay, I stand corrected!
Quoting CaribBoy:
TD8 is so tiny

don't call it that yet but you can say PRE- in front if you want to
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I say more like the Yucatan, or the Yuc.Channel
steering has changed alot it showing more of a WNW-NW movement



i wouldnt go that far its still moving wnw but the major thing it has slowed down and that spells trouble for the yucatan..reds continue to increase in all quadrants..
3049. Dennis8
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I say more like the Yucatan, or the Yuc.Channel
steering has changed alot it showing more of a WNW-NW movement


HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM....let me analyze again but I say Belize. I am headed to Cancun 10-6 so I want it to stay way south. :>) ACTUALLY stay at its current strength. I am certified meteorologist and wanting and wishing do not make mother nature do anything..
It appears that 93L has really consolidated overnight, and a code red for it...
Likely going to see a renumber soon...
Harvey on the Way, and with this system in good conditions it is likely going to stay north of Honduras and be able to strengthen... thinking 65 to 75 mph storm, depending on when formation occurs... TCHP is very high, and shear is low with only a small amount of dry air to the west, and a small pocket to the east which appears to be diminishing
Quoting tropicfreak:
Anyway, anyone think that pre-harvey could attain hurricane status?

Yes.
93L should be near this bouy soon Station 42057 17.003 N 81.501 W
Quoting stormpetrol:
15.9N/79.5W


16.2N 79.2W
Quoting Dennis8:


HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM....let me analyze again but I say Belize. I am headed to Cancun 10-6 so I want it to stay way south. :>) ACTUALLY stay at its current strength. I am certified meteorologist and wanting and wishing do not make mother nature do anything..


Excuse you? Lol? We are all entitled to our own opinion on this site.
3057. Dennis8
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
It appears that 93L has really consolidated overnight, and a code red for it...
Likely going to see a renumber soon...
Harvey on the Way, and with this system in good conditions it is likely going to stay north of Honduras and be able to strengthen... thinking 65 to 75 mph storm, depending on when formation occurs... TCHP is very high, and shear is low with only a small amount of dry air to the west, and a small pocket to the east which appears to be diminishing


I am afraid so...
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Yes.


When you already answered my question, I modified my comment, thanks!
Jrweatherman,
Don't jump the gun yet, there is still no major details on possible Harvey, and those are key to knowing if Hurricane status is achievable with Harvey... My guess is a 70 Mph storms unless something were to occur... RI
The annual drought map is a good source but, it doesn't even come close to telling the harsh reality of where the true drought is ?? From the "Golden Triangle"(SE TX) to SW and Central LA to NW LA over the last 20 months there are places like Newton TX, De Ridder LA, Orange TX and Alexandria LA that are -37 to -49 inches of rain down since January 2010 thru Mid August 2011 !! Am praying for any tropical system to break the climate cycle that has been so badd****
3061. WxLogic
12Z NAM:



500MB:

93L should be coming close to a bouy 17.003 N 81.501 W

It does seem to be tracking a little farther to the north
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.
I see outflow boundaries, which means she's sucking up some dry air.

A little help from the MJO, won't come in time. This one is bye bye to Hawaii.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hey Jason please stop it. It may seem funny to you but to other its not don't worry we will have a renumber soon and when it happen you can post it till your computer breaks but until then please please please stop please


Use the ignore function...it works perfectly. I should know. Everytime this guys rears his head, I add his latest handle to the list.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

don't call it that yet but you can say PRE- in front if you want to
But it's cute!!!
3066. 7544
97l is shaping up good
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Jrweatherman,
Don't jump the gun yet, there is still no major details on possible Harvey, and those are key to knowing if Hurricane status is achievable with Harvey... My guess is a 70 Mph storms unless something were to occur... RI


Which most certainly wouldn't be out of the question, especially in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting Floodman:


Use the ignore function...it works perfectly. I should know. Everytime this guys rears his head, I add his latest handle to the list.


I do the same thing, and apparently some people have a problem with it.
3070. Dennis8
Quoting JasonCoolMan2012:
I dont like this at all!


THANKS!
Quoting tropicfreak:
Levi, Misswx, miami, any experts on here think once Harvey develops, could it make it to hurricane status?

If 93L continues on its westward to west northwestward track it will start interacting with the northern coast of Honduras in 24 to 36 hours which could limit intensity; however if it turns slightly more northwestward toward Belize it misses the interaction and its time over warm water increases dramatically. It is approximately 600 miles from the center of 93L to the coast of Belize!!!
3073. Patrap
Quoting Floodman:


Use the ignore function...it works perfectly. I should know. Everytime this guys rears his head, I add his latest handle to the list.


The Floodman is a wise owl,,Ferris say's.
Quoting Floodman:



Hey mate, How you going. How's the old back going?
Accuwx video discussion regarding current African wave to follow Hurricane Donna's path making east coast landfall next week as Hurricane or strong T.S.

Link
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I see outflow boundaries, which means she's sucking up some dry air.

A little help from the MJO, won't come in time. This one is bye bye to Hawaii.


Have to strongly disagree, convection has consolidated, pressures are dropping, I see no reason why this wouldn't be declared TD 8 or Harvey later on today, only thing that stands in the way is recon and NHC.
am curious to see the model consensus on direction and intensity as we get into next week

incredible global agreement so far on a florida hit... not good

not panicked yet but can not recall a system that has had consistent track record agreement on cyclone formation and potential landfall point

i tell ya... when the GFS and EURO come into agreement, that could mean something

then again, maybe I am wrong
3078. Patrap
Hard to miss that Blue, "Rules of the Road" icon right bove the comment box below.

Read it sometimes.

And maybe check out the community standards as well.


Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 14:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 14:40Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.1N 66.9W
Location: 106 miles (171 km) to the SSW (211°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,590 geopotential meters
Wait has 97L already been designated??
3082. beell
Quoting kshipre1:
accuweather mentioning that system in central atlantic could possibly recurve in or around Bahamas

that would be great news but again, I am stunned. With a High that big projected by the end of next week, what the heck could barrell through that thing!


I held that hope for a while. But no longer. We have had a weak one the last 2-3 weeks. The A/B ridge is now being modeled almost as strong (height-wise) as the one setting over Texas. And this would apply to almost any degree of storm organization. A deep layer ridge.
Time: 14:49:00Z
Coordinates: 16.85N 67.7167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,729 meters (~ 25,358 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 416 meters (~ 1,365 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 42° at 5 knots (From the NE at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: -18.7°C (~ -1.7°F)
Dew Pt: -22.8°C (~ -9.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
lol, looks like Rick Perry's statement about global warming is having affects on the market.

10,972.76
-437.45 (-3.83%
Quoting tropicfreak:


Have to strongly disagree, convection has consolidated, pressures are dropping, I see no reason why this wouldn't be declared TD 8 or Harvey later on today, only thing that stands in the way is recon and NHC.
He was speaking about the one in the Pacific I believe.
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
When is 93L set to hit New Orleans?

TIA

Seriously!!!! what makes you ask that question????
The storms this season that came close to hurricane status:
1. Gert~ nearly closed Eyewall, though couldn't get winds high enough

2. Arlene~ Had winds ramping up, though didnt have enough time over water to develop an eyewall

3. Cindy~ Developed an Eye like feature and it appeared to have an eyewall though not fully closed, and winds only reached 60 Mph

4. Bret~ Developed an "Eye like" feature though there was now indication of an eyewall, and winds only peaked around 65 mph. In addition the Eye feature fell apart quickly after the formation of the Eye

5. Harvey could make a run for Hurricane Status though I put the odds of achieving hurricane status at around 30%

6. 97L Could be a threat to become a hurricane sometime Early next week

Don, Emily, and Franklin all did not even near hurricane status whatsoever...

Don~ 50 Mph, very disorganized
Emily~ 50 Mph, had organization troubles along with Dry air, and rugged terrain of Hispanoila/Cuba
Franklin~ 45 Mph, was a shallow warm core system, and had little time to strengthen before becoming extratropical
NEW BLOG ENTRY

Sorry; just didn't want any to miss it. ;-)
ok, thanks. so, in short, you are indicating a recurve as of now is a very low chance

that is scary. upper level pattern shaping like 2004 path storms... High stationed in the west atlantic with storms steering right into Florida

once can only hope the circulation goes over land and mountains long enough but for some reason I have a little heightened fear about this one

maybe I am crazy because it is still an invest and not a storm

Quoting tropicfreak:


I do the same thing, and apparently some people have a problem with it.


Mistakenly hoping that some pearl of wisdom wil fall from his lips, apparently
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He was speaking about the one in the Pacific I believe.



No he was talking about 93L, and he quoted someone's post about 93L's lifespan so far.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Have to strongly disagree, convection has consolidated, pressures are dropping, I see no reason why this wouldn't be declared TD 8 or Harvey later on today, only thing that stands in the way is recon and NHC.
Who cares, she's over the mountains to the Pacific. It's like watching the ball game you've recorded, after you already know who has won.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Who cares, she's over the mountains to the Pacific. It's like watching the ball game you've recorded, after you already know who has won.



Apologize, did not read it carefully enough.
Quoting tropicfreak:



No he was talking about 93L, and he quoted someone's post about 93L's lifespan so far.
Ok. Sorry, my mistake. I am at work so mostly lurking on a verrry slow computer.
one advantage to being in the south is Golden Flake chips. Frito Lay cant match up. lol.
Quoting yesterway:
Accuwx video discussion regarding current African wave to follow Hurricane Donna's path making east coast landfall next week as Hurricane or strong T.S.

Link
Good analysis...HOWEVER...the track he shows for Donna was NOT Donna's path, or timeline. Donna hit Long Island on Sept 12, 1960, not Sept 4, and it also touched up South Florida. How dare he make this mistake, and, take Donna's name in vain I knew Donna, Donna was my friend...Irene will be NO DONNA!!!! Sheeesh
very boring season so far. some barely storms need more action
Quoting tropicfreak:
Wait has 97L already been designated??
yes
Looks like 97L is already 14N. By the time is gets to the islands looks like 18N-20N maybe even higher depending on strength at that time.

Quoting Hurricanes12:


Excuse you? Lol? We are all entitled to our own opinion on this site.


Unless somebody doesn't like it enough.
Man, I go out for a few groceries to pass some time till recon gets there, and the HH barely moved. It's gonna be another half hour until the HH gets to 93L's environment. Guess that means I got time to cook some of those groceries. Honey ham anyone?
Quoting NavarreMark:


Please don't quote people on my ignore list. LOL


Please don't quote people who quote people on my ignore list please, LOL

TIA
Quoting Slamguitar:
Man, I go out for a few groceries to pass some time till recon gets there, and the HH barely moved. It's gonna be another half hour until the HH gets to 93L's environment. Guess that means I got time to cook some of those groceries. Honey ham anyone?


And some eggs maybe? Hey, you know waht? Slide over and let Flood make you some of my world famous french toast...where's the nutmeg?
Quoting Patrap:


The Floodman is a wise owl,,Ferris say's.


All of that and I have some really spectacular friends too...thanks, brother!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey mate, How you going. How's the old back going?


Going good...90 to nothing!

The back is great; I had a spectacular surgeon and I hammered my way through recovery and PT. I'm at 98% of where I was prior to the back being really bad, which is amazing, considering the shape the rest of me is in...if I died tomorrow my back would keep on going another 20 years

LOL

And you? How are you doing?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Seriously!!!! what makes you ask that question????


Either a lack of medication or a close proximity to stormtop...
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