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Texas drought could last 9 years; Ophelia a Cat 3; Cat 4 Nalgae nears Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:52 PM GMT on September 30, 2011

The devastating Texas drought that has already cost over $5 billion could continue for nine more years, predicted Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon in an interview with Reuters yesterday. "It is possible that we could be looking at another of these multi-year droughts like we saw in the 1950s, and like the tree rings have shown that the state has experienced over the last several centuries," Nielson-Gammon said. Drought statistics released yesterday by the U.S. Drought Monitor showed that over 96% of Texas is experiencing the two worst categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. The past 12 months have been the driest one-year period on record in Texas. The main blame for this year's drought can be put on La Niña, the cooling of equatorial Pacific waters that deflects the jet stream and takes rain-bearing low pressure system away from Texas. Other large-scale atmospheric/oceanic patterns called the Pacfic Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have also favored dry conditions for Texas this year. When the AMO brings warm ocean temperatures to the North Atlantic, as it has since 1995, Texas is typically dry. Texas also tends to be dry when the PDO brings cool ocean temperatures to the coastal North Pacific next to North America. This has been the case since 2007 (except for late 2009 and early 2010.) In a post earlier this month in his excellent blog, Climate Abyss, Nielson-Gammon has this to say about the influence of global warming on the 2011 drought:

Precipitation: The balance of evidence does not support the assertion that the rainfall deficit since October 2010 was made larger or more likely by global warming.

Temperature: Compared to long-term averages of summer temperature,the rainfall deficit accounted for about 4°F of excess heat and global warming accounted for about 1°F of excess heat. Warmer temperatures lead to greater water demand, faster evaporation, and greater drying-out of potential fuels for fire. Thus, the impacts of the drought were enhanced by global warming, much of which has been caused by man.


Figure 1. This week's Drought Monitor showed that over 96% of Texas was experiencing the two worst categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

High fire danger for Texas today
Strong winds, temperatures in the 90s, and relative humidities in the 15 - 25% range will bring critical fire conditions today to Texas in the Austin-San Antonio region today, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Austin set a record high for the date yesterday, when the mercury climbed to 99°. Dry weather will dominate Texas for the coming week, but an increasing flow of moist air off the Gulf of Mexico next weekend may allow for a little drought relief 7 - 10 days from now. Texas' hurricane season is pretty much over; it is rare for tropical storms to affect Texas this late in the season. There is the potential the state could get moisture from an Eastern Pacific tropical storm, but there are probably only going to be 1 - 3 more storms in the Eastern Pacific this year, since activity in the basin is sharply lower during La Niña events.

Ophelia strengthens into the season's fourth hurricane
Hurricane Ophelia has strengthened into an respectable Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, making it the season's fourth hurricane and third major hurricane. The arrival of the season's fourth hurricane on September 29 is a week later than the average date for the season's fourth hurricane, which is September 21. This is a remarkably late date for a season boasting the 2nd greatest number of named storms ever recorded before October (sixteen). Typically, over 60% of all named storms intensify into hurricanes; this year, the percentage has been only 25%. This bizarre combination of a near-record number of named storms but only four hurricanes has led to a near-average year for total destructive potential, as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). We are about 7% above average for ACE for this point in the season, according to stats compiled by Dr. Ryan Maue. The combination of near-record warm sea surface temperatures but exceptionally dry, stable air over the tropical Atlantic responsible for this year's odd hurricane season shows no signs of changing over the next few weeks. However, it's worth pointing out that the ocean regions north of 20°N latitude where Ophelia and Philippe are positioned have near-normal levels of atmospheric stability and dry air.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.

Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia continues to intensify. The hurricane has a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. Moderate wind shear due to upper-level west-southwesterly winds is slowing intensification, and shear is expected to remain moderate through Sunday. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 45 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 30% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and just a 1% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday, though the models have been trending towards keeping Ophelia farther offshore from Newfoundland in their recent runs. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 36% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.

Tropical Storm Philippe
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is expected to increase to a very high 30 - 40 knots Saturday through Monday, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear may be high enough to destroy Philippe by Monday, though most of the models predict Philippe will survive the shear for the next five days. In the event Philippe does survive the shear, the storm could penetrate far enough west that Bermuda might need to be concerned with it, since Philippe will be forced almost due west by a strong ridge of high pressure early next week. There is even a small chance (perhaps 5%) that Philippe could make a comeback from Ophelia's high shear and affect the U.S. East Coast or Bahama Islands late next week.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days. The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 3. Satellite-predicted rainfall amounts for the 24-hour period ending at 2 am EDT Saturday October 1, 2011, for Typhoon Nalgae. The typhoon is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain over Northern Luzon in the Philippines. This is probably an underestimate, given Nalgae's recent rapid intensification from Cat 2 to Cat 4. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Typhoon Nesat drenching Vietnam; Category 4 Typhoon Nalgae drenching the Philippines
Typhoon Nesat hit Vietnam today near Hanoi as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 43 people dead and 30 missing. The Philippines has a very bad case of deja-vu today, with Typhoon Nalgae already beginning to dump heavy rains on the main island of Luzon. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing over Luzon just to the north of the capital of Manila. Nalgae is expected to maintain its Category 4 strength until landfall, and will likely bring at least 4 - 8 inches of rain to Northern Luzon. While this may not be as wet a storm as Nesat, Nalgae's rains will be falling on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Wind damage is also a huge concern; Nagae's 135 mph winds are capable of causing widespread destruction on Luzon.

Jeff Masters
Drought Fault
Drought Fault
County Road 172 sliding into the ditch as a result of the prolonged drought.
Wildfire in Jefferson, TX
Wildfire in Jefferson, TX

Drought Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. JLPR2
Stormy night in eastern Cuba.
Quoting nymore:
I will not take sides in this Patrap battle but lets just say I have seen a prominent blogger on here use swear words and blatant sexual words and receive no punishment even after having been reported. I guess what is good for the goose is not good for the gander. All punishment should be handled equally no matter who you are. Example I once got banned for making a funny post with a comment made on the show Family Guy which contained no swearing or sexual reference.


I learned a long time ago that the administration system on this site is terrible. Which is odd considering how popular this place is. :/
Quoting KoritheMan:


I learned a long time ago that the administration system on this site is terrible. Which is odd considering how popular this place is. :/


Being first to do something is a good way to be popular. But as Pat has insinuated....the blogs here are unimportant to the revenue of this site and thus they are neglected.
Quoting nymore:
... Example I once got banned for making a funny post with a comment made on the show Family Guy which contained no swearing or sexual reference.


As I understand it, admin never says WHY you're banned. In your case, the most parsimonious explanation is probably copyright violation.
Quoting EstherD:


As I understand it, admin never says WHY you're banned. In your case, the most parsimonious explanation is probably copyright violation.
I can not be exactly sure why I was banned but I rarely comment on here and was banned after that comment also the comment was obscure and I highly doubt the admin had a copyright issue since I see many songs and videos posted on here
In a former lifetime I was paid good money to do system administration, and I know a thing or two about it.

Playing Whack-a-Mole isn't actually very effective, and it gets real tiring real fast.

Technical defenses take time and effort to develop. No matter how good they are, they can (and will eventually) be overcome by a motivated opponent. In the end it just becomes an even higher-stakes game of Whack-a-Mole.

So peer review and community policing seem (to me) to be a good (and cheap) alternative. Esepcially if, as was mentioned in a previous comment, the blogs don't actually generate any revenue to offset the costs of running them.
25.6n63.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Ophelia's_1Oct_6amGMT_ATCF
25.5n63.0w, 27.0n63.1w are now the most recent positions
Starting 30Sept_6amGMT and ending 1Oct_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 1Oct_6amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 44.072n64.552w-YAW is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 1Oct_12amGMT*mapping,
and the island-to-ocean blob at 32.368n64.407w-BDA is the same for the 30Sept_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 17.2mph(27.6k/h) on a heading of 356.6degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over CherryHill(GreenBay)NovaScotia ~2days20hours from now (The straightline is ~80miles/129kilometres east of Bermuda)

Copy&paste 32.368n64.407w-bda, 44.072n64.552w-yaw, 22.0n62.5w-23.0n62.8w, 23.0n62.8w-24.1n62.9w, 24.1n62.9w-25.5n63.0w, 25.5n63.0w-27.0n63.1w, 25.5n63.0w-44.142n64.499w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 1Oct_12amGMT

* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&headings, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
513. JLPR2
You know what still surprises me to this day.

The inability of the people of this blog to ignore a comment and let the issue die.

Instead it is dragged on and discussed over and over again. Bleh! :\

Can we get back to weather and let the hours old conflict behind?
514. JLPR2
Neat!

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 56.3 kts (65mph)
Wind Gust (GST): 73.8 kts (85mph)
Wave Height (WVHT): 36.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 15 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.02 in (982.73mb)
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.62 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Being first to do something is a good way to be popular. But as Pat has insinuated....the blogs here are unimportant to the revenue of this site and thus they are neglected.


The security of the site I should say. It isn't just the administration system. For example, when running a radar loop, I can exceed the standard 6 frame rule simply by editing the URL to an arbitrary number. This is something that is intended to be reserved only for paying members.

Then there's the ads -- Adblock prevents them, which again was intended only for the beneficiaries who pay.

It's kind of sad.
Quoting KoritheMan:


The security of the site I should say. It isn't just the administration system. For example, when running a radar loop, I can exceed the standard 6 frame rule simply by editing the URL to an arbitrary number. This is something that is intended to be reserved only for paying members.

Then there's the ads -- Adblock prevents them, which again was intended only for the beneficiaries who pay.

It's kind of sad.


As I said, and as your examples make perfectly clear, technical means are easy to overcome if you have the motivation and the skill. So a right-thinking IT manager decides what to deploy (or not, as the case may be) based on a comparison of the costs and benefits, while trying at all times to minimize the former and maximize the latter.

That WU has been successful all these years implies they must be doing a pretty good job of it.
Ophelia's eye looks stable, unlike Katia and to some extent Irene. However, eyewall cloudtops are a bit warm.
518. JLPR2
Ophelia is deeper than the estimated 956mb.

Wind Speed (WSPD): 56.3 kts (65mph)
Wind Gust (GST): 99.1 kts (115mph)
Wave Height (WVHT): 40.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 15 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.14 in (953mb)
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.39 in ( Falling Rapidly )

So far the highest sustained winds at the buoy have been 96mph, highest gust 116mph and the lowest pressure 952mb.
520. CC45
Hey weather blog? Dear weather blog where have you gone? Once again, I find myself searching through hundreds of posts looking for some semblance of the weather blog.

I used to love this place and am probably here more than any other lurker. I'm even here in the off-season. Things are so much calmer then. I like this blog, when it's good it's awesome but when it's bad, omg.

Don't know why I'm even posting now as I'm a nobody here. Just wanted to thank those who stayed on topic, I did find some good posts, but they're buried under piles of BS. So to those people, thanks for trying.

btw - Finally cooled off here in East Tx, but dry as a bone. Actually drier than a bone. The wind following the front makes it scary times for fires here. 9 years, really? God help us.

CC
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...MAJOR HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSES DIRECTLY OVER NOAA BUOY 41049...
EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 63.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The JMA currently has Nelgae with 10-minute sustained winds of 95kts, which equates roughly to 133kt 1-minute sustained winds (multiply the 10-minute sustained winds by 1.4).

Nelgae is a couple of knots short of category 5 status it appears.


1.4 is too large a multification factor. See Table 1.1 in GUIDELINES FOR CONVERTING BETWEEN VARIOUS WIND AVERAGING PERIODS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS. Depending on where it is measured (at sea, on land) the value is between 1.05 - 1.21
good morning,


Phl Dragon Boat Team on standby for flood rescue operations
Home Updated October 01, 2011 03:41 PM 0 comment to this post

MANILA (Xinhua) -- The Philippine Dragon Boat Team, which recently won several gold medals in a competition in the United States, is on standby for the conduct of search and rescue operations in Central Luzon which remain flooded after being ravaged by typhoon Nesat.

"We are on standby... We are volunteering," said the team's manager Maj. Harold Cabunoc who is also the deputy spokesman of the Army.

The 18-member team, including 12 soldiers, earned recognition and accolades after winning five gold medals and two silver medals during the International Dragon Boat Federation World Championships held in Tampa Bay, Florida in August.

Cabunoc said they are trying to find a long bed truck that will transport their boat from Metro Manila to Central Luzon where hundreds, if not thousands, are still waiting to be rescue from their submerged houses.

The region was flooded by Nesat that hit several regions early this week. The flooding was aggravated when authorities released water from the dams due to threat posed by typhoon Nalgae which made a landfall in Isabela Saturday morning.

Cabunoc said the team is planning to conduct the search and rescue operations either in Calumpit or Hagonoy, both towns in Bulacan.

"We are using our skills (to save people)," said Cabunoc.

Shaking my head.
TYPHOON QUIEL (international code name: Nalgae) on Saturday has slightly weakened after it traversed northern Luzon, the state weather bureau said in its latest report.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said as of 4 p.m. on Saturday, the eye of the typhoon was at 40 km north-northeast of Baguio City, with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph. It is forecast to move further west at 26 kph.

Good morning to all, 61 here currently with 35 percent humidity, welcome to the new desert. LOL


We are under a red flag warning (fire advisory) today in Central Florida.
Try to enjoy the day; it is the only one we have.
Quoting Barkeep1967:
Lol They can not have an accurate 10 day forecast but 9 years ?

Who made a forecast for 9 years? Yes, I don't believe it.
good morning everyone i see nalgae has weakened to a 3 over the philipenes. i hope everyone there is alright. nalgae should weaken to a 2 maintain itself and possibly weaken as it heads west/west south west
Ophelia the defiant.
Quoting nymore:
Great point

It seems that "bunker" is a right wing meme and "underground" is a left wing meme. Or am I confusing my memes? Of course, no one really takes that seriously--or do they?
8:00 AM AST Sat Oct 1
Location: 28.6°N 63.0°W
Max sustained: 120 mph
Moving: N at 17 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb


...HURRICANE OPHELIA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD HEADING WITH 120 MPH WINDS...
Morning Everybody,
Peace and tranquility for some of us this morning!
Everywhere I look today there are things bringing woe.
We have the typhoon,Nalgae,which is sure to be causing historical damage to all in its path with more to come? Texas with little hope of respite and now {I hope this is wrong!}with maybe another "9"years of drought conditions.
The UK has got +30?c so they have traffic congestion as people rush to the coasts in search of a last glimmering ray of watery sunshine before the arctic winter returns and they are assured that all snow gritters are chomping at the bit should blizzards strike early.
Here in southern Spain we have survived September without rain in my area, that's 6,months and now NOAA says its not going to be a wet start to the winter here. Today we have about 40MPH dry winds screaming past my window, humidity very low. Plus a possible volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands on the cards.
I just had a thought!That maybe some people could post a few comments on what is going well in their area at the moment?For a change that is!
Eye is starting to fill in this morning so I think we are done with strengthening and will see weakening commence later today
1004mb here in new jersey the sky looks very dark. its going to be one crazy day today...
Quoting Chicklit:


We are under a red flag warning (fire advisory) today in Central Florida.
Try to enjoy the day; it is the only one we have.
beautiful day in cen fl. people pay for this weather
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
good morning everyone i see nalgae has weakened to a 3 over the philipenes. i hope everyone there is alright. nalgae should weaken to a 2 maintain itself and possibly weaken as it heads west/west south west


This is what they are dealing with.





Quoting CC45:
Hey weather blog? Dear weather blog where have you gone? Once again, I find myself searching through hundreds of posts looking for some semblance of the weather blog.

I used to love this place and am probably here more than any other lurker. I'm even here in the off-season. Things are so much calmer then. I like this blog, when it's good it's awesome but when it's bad, omg.

Don't know why I'm even posting now as I'm a nobody here. Just wanted to thank those who stayed on topic, I did find some good posts, but they're buried under piles of BS. So to those people, thanks for trying.

btw - Finally cooled off here in East Tx, but dry as a bone. Actually drier than a bone. The wind following the front makes it scary times for fires here. 9 years, really? God help us.

CC


So well said. I couldn't agree more.
Quoting bappit:

It seems that "bunker" is a right wing meme and "underground" is a left wing meme. Or am I confusing my memes? Of course, no one really takes that seriously--or do they?


I prefer cellar.

Particularly a well stocked cellar.

Yes, I'd seriously take a wine cellar. The only sensible choice.
Residents in low-lying areas in Central Luzon asked to evacuate immediately

MANILA, Philippines – Residents living in low-lying areas and in coastal towns of Bulacan and Pampanga have been ordered to evacuate immediately as floods from Nueva Ecija brought by rains from Typhoon “Quiel” (international codename: Nalgae) could flow into the two provinces a few hours from now, an official of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said Saturday.

At the same time, NDRRMC Executive Director Benito Ramos said that one person has died and another injured in the storm that has affected a large part of Luzon.

Ramos said the victim died from a landslide in Bontoc, Mountain Province.

Graciano Yumul of Philippine Atmospheric and Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said that the land in Luzon was so saturated with water from Typhoon “Pedring” (international codename: Nesat) that it could no longer absorb more, and thus could trigger flashfloods and landslides.

As of Saturday, the NDRRMC said that Luzon has lost about P6-billion worth of agriculture and infrastructure from Pedring, which left the country Wednesday.
Quoting bappit:

Who made a forecast for 9 years? Yes, I don't believe it.
Not sure I believe it either, just a possibility, does not mean it will happen. Texas will not go 9 years without an El Nino or tropical system. If you triple my rainfall of 7 inches this year I am still considered in a drought because that is still a foot below average. October thru Dec. are normally pretty dry months for Texas. Texas needs an El Nino or tropical systems to get the rain it needs or for some other things to happen just right. There are positives the next fire season should not be as bad if people get rid of their dead brush and cut the dead grass back. There should be little vegetation to burn this coming winter season there is nothing to die because it is all dead already. I don't see rains to fill up rivers and lakes but any rain would be a positive. Albuquerque N.M. has only received 1.91 this year, they should be close to 8 inches for the year. Phoenix and Las Vegas are alot dryer than normal too. We have been below average for most years out of the past 8 years but not like 2011. It is tough now because you cannot watch a radar and say I am going to get alot of rain when a huge portion of it is not hitting the ground. We have a 20 percent chance of Virga today is what our new forecast should say or a 20 percent chance of nothing. If I am Texas I would dig my ponds much deeper when they dry out etc. Right now with La Nina back it is going to take a Miracle for Texas to get the rains it needs IMO.
Ophelia waking up on visible this mornin.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Not sure I believe it either, just a possibility, does not mean it will happen. Texas will not go 9 years without an El Nino or tropical system. If you triple my rainfall of 7 inches this year I am still considered in a drought because that is still a foot below average. October thru Dec. are normally pretty dry months for Texas. Texas needs an El Nino or tropical systems to get the rain it needs or for some other things to happen just right. There are positives the next fire season should not be as bad if people get rid of their dead brush and cut the dead grass back. There should be little vegetation to burn this coming winter season there is nothing to die because it is all dead already. I don't see rains to fill up rivers and lakes but any rain would be a positive. Albuquerque N.M. has only received 1.91 this year, they should be close to 8 inches for the year. Phoenix and Las Vegas are alot dryer than normal too. We have been below average for most years out of the past 8 years but not like 2011. It is tough now because you cannot watch a radar and say I am going to get alot of rain when a huge portion of it is not hitting the ground. We have a 20 percent chance of Virga today is what our new forecast should say or a 20 percent chance of nothing. If I am Texas I would dig my ponds much deeper when they dry out etc. Right now with La Nina back it is going to take a Miracle for Texas to get the rains it needs IMO.

well la nina is expected to stregnthen and weaken like last years one in the spring but i dont think el nino will form just yet. we had one in 09. im thinking 2013 or 2014 el nino will form.

oh my god....... look at all that white in the carribean... Wow.... no comment
pouch 33 alittle weak but its there and moving west
Quoting Pirate999:


So well said. I couldn't agree more.
except for this post almost all the comments are associated with weather look at them if you dont believe me. i just think you two characters just like to complain
Post:547 CJ5 Thats like the best comment anyones put all year! +10000000000
549. DDR

Hello from Trinidad
It's currently 32.3 c
high humidity,rain is likely today,we are slightly above average in terms of rainfall,heading into la nina with a high chance again of above average rains over the next 3-4 months.
Got a nice line of storms coming in from the Pacific here.

Click image for loop.

Got some strong winds also.

Click image for loop.
H.Ophelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 30Sept_12pmGMT and ending 1Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 1Oct_12pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 44.142n64.499w-YAW is the endpoint of the Oct_6amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 44.072n64.552w-YAW is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 1Oct_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 17.3mph(27.9k/h) on a heading of 6.7degrees(N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over Louisbourg(CapeBreton)NovaScotia ~2days20hours from now

Copy&paste 44.072n64.552w-yaw, 44.142n64.499w-yaw, 23.0n62.8w-24.1n62.9w, 24.1n62.9w-25.5n63.0w, 25.5n63.0w-27.0n63.1w, 27.0n63.1w-28.5n62.9w, 27.0n63.1w-45.876n59.991w, yps into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 1Oct_6amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Quoting AussieStorm:


This is what they are dealing with.






What have he done to the besutiful BAY?!?!?
Ophelia is the first major hurricane in the month of October in the Atlantic since Hurricane Omar, 3 years ago. Ophelia is the first major CV hurricane in the month of October since Hurricane Kate of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, nearly 8 years ago.

A very powerful upward MJO now appears possible in the next few weeks, and monsoonal development appears very likely there for our next few systems. I have no doubt that October will be active if this verifies.
Quoting Vincent4989:

What have he done to the besutiful BAY?!?!?

Nesat destroyed the Manila Bay/Roxas Ave walk.


well she is tiny but a strong lil boogar
Also, regarding Philippe, if the models are correct his best days are ahead of him, while the ECMWF does not intensify Philippe, the GFS and CMC which both predicted Ophelia would become a hurricane north of the islands while the ECMWF predicted its complete death north of Hispaniola, predicts that Philippe will intensify into at least a 70 mph TS, perhaps a minimal Category 1 hurricane, as it curves out to sea very similarly to Maria. While this is of no consequence to land, it would be very interesting to see how that occurs.

It is also worth nothing that the GFS has been very persistent for weeks showing a system would develop in the SW Caribbean, but keeps on pushing it down the timeline. Now it appears to be latching onto the idea, and the latest 00z CMC shows a system developing in the Caribbean in early October. The ECMWF is failing to pick up on the idea of a full out tropical storm, but it showing lower pressures in the Caribbean around that time frame. Any system that develops down there will be perhaps the greatest threat all year to land and people, the waters down there are relatively untapped.. and given the general paths in October are stationary in the W Caribbean.. followed by a sharp NE turn into land from Cuba to Florida, it will be very interesting to see how this occurs if it does at all.
"The record has been broken for the highest temperature recorded in October - at 29.5C (85.1F).

It was set at 13:27 in Gravesend, Kent, beating the previous 26-year record of 29.4C (85.9F) recorded on 1 October 1985, in the town of March, Cambridge.

Met Office forecaster Andrew Sibley said: "We are looking to see the highest sometime around 3pm, getting up to 30C."

Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia is the first major hurricane in the month of October in the Atlantic since Hurricane Omar, 3 years ago. Ophelia is the first major CV hurricane in the month of October since Hurricane Kate of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, nearly 8 years ago.

A very powerful upward MJO now appears possible in the next few weeks, and monsoonal development appears very likely there for our next few systems. I have no doubt that October will be active if this verifies.

Is the white area in the carribian in the middle of that scale or off that scale?
Quoting outofdablue:

Is the white area in the carribian in the middle of that scale or off that scale?


Off scale.
BTW: That island south of CapeBreton is a bird (and feral horse) sanctuary which is uninhabited except for "four Environment Canada station personnel and one resident researcher."
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good morning to all, 61 here currently with 35 percent humidity, welcome to the new desert. LOL

Hey bohonk. smokey in your area?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Off scale.
what does the MJO look like for the GOM any possibility of rain for TX?
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
CybrTeddy, you seem to know your stuff. Maybe not as good as Levi or Stormchaser2007, but you do alright.

I have a question. Tell me, why are these storms all heading out to sea not affecting America at all. It seems like the most boring, uneventful season that I've ever witnessed. Why all the weak, pathetic systems that have no impact on America.

One of the most boring, weak, noneventful seasons ever.

?
Perhaps you forgot Irene and Lee.
In terms of wind at landfall and appearance, sure they were uneventful, but they did cause storm surge and brought plenty of rain and destroyed many a home by flooding.
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
CybrTeddy, you seem to know your stuff. Maybe not as good as Levi or Stormchaser2007, but you do alright.

I have a question. Tell me, why are these storms all heading out to sea not affecting America at all. It seems like the most boring, uneventful season that I've ever witnessed. Why all the weak, pathetic systems that have no impact on America.

One of the most boring, weak, noneventful seasons ever.


Try selling that nonsense to the good people of NC. Hardly uneventful.
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
CybrTeddy, you seem to know your stuff. Maybe not as good as Levi or Stormchaser2007, but you do alright.

I have a question. Tell me, why are these storms all heading out to sea not affecting America at all. It seems like the most boring, uneventful season that I've ever witnessed. Why all the weak, pathetic systems that have no impact on America.

One of the most boring, weak, noneventful seasons ever.


I think its fairly simple. And I would hardly call this season uneventful, see here for your example.. .we all should have gotten our fair taste of death and destruction in the US this year, but several bloggers on here seem to think this isn't enough - that Ike's and Katrina's are the norms.

Most of our storms this season have formed off frontal boundaries off the US East Coast, I have complained in the past seasons of the lack of these interesting systems, however this season appears to be the exact opposite of that. There is also the lack of vertical instability to blame in the tropical Atlantic. I personally however, find this season very interesting.

I don't think its any more difficult to understand than that. And this season isn't over, it is very possible perhaps the most dangerous part of 2011 has yet to even come, when these monsoonal systems in the SW start to get going.
570. If this is your idea of uneventful, I would seriously dread to see your idea of eventful.
Fall has finally arrived in Gainesville, FL. Cool temperatures, low humidity and blue sky. Here are Low/High temps next five days: Sat 50/82, Sun 51/80, Mon 53/81, Tue 59/84, Wed 63/85. It looks like a perfect week weather wise. If you live in FL then you know what I am talking about.
Looking back on the vertical instability issue for the last few weeks with some research, and of all the years so far that I've come across - 2007 sticks out the most of all years. While the pattern setup was much different that year, you had a lot of dry air across the basin that caused most of those storms to be weak. 2007 ended up with 15 named storms and only 2 major hurricanes - but both where complete monsters.


Ophelia



HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011

...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF
BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
guess not.
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Everything has a way of balancing out.

I wish it were so, but, no, they really don't. For instance, since January 1--that is, including the two coldest months of the calendar year--new record daily high temperatures across the US have outnumbered new record daily low temperatures by 15,225 to 5,406, or a bit over 2.8 to 1. That's really not very balanced, is it? ;-)
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
Tell me, why are these storms all heading out to sea not affecting America at all. It seems like the most boring, uneventful season that I've ever witnessed. Why all the weak, pathetic systems that have no impact on America.

One of the most boring, weak, noneventful seasons ever.

2011's ACE--one measurement of how active a particular storm and/or season is--will be well over 90 by the end of the day. That's already more ACE than 32 of the last 61 seasons managed to pull together--including five seasons since 1995, the start of the current "active" period in the tropics. And, of course, the record is 16-4-3. That's more total named storms than 55 of those past 61 seasons, and the same amount as two more. By the time the year is over, 2011 will safely be in second place so far as that goes. 2011's total hurricane count is a bit anemic, but so far as major hurricanes go, only 15 of the past 61 seasons have seen more than the current three. Add to that the 110 or so deaths and $17 billion or so in damage attributed to tropical activity, and I'd have to say that I'm just not seeing this year as being what you call "boring, uneventful, noneventful, weak, and pathetic". Could you please explain what you mean in a little more detail?

BTW: anyone who thinks it's "uneventful" here can always fly down to the Philippines; I think the poor people in those islands would like a long spell of "boring" right about now. ;-)
the cool temps arrived at Carrollwood, Tampa, upper 60s this morning. I had to put a jacket to take the dogs out. When I was outside I saw that people were in t-shirts and shorts and I was wearing a jacket LOL remember that I'am not used to this temps, bad news for me that the forecast for tomorrow is lower temps and I'm already with flu symptoms.
Nalgae flew across the Philippines while I slept. That's good news for them. I nailed the landfall.. & look at how (MIMIC) when it came out on the west side in that Bay..how it affected the path.
Many of the dynamic MJO forecast models forecast for a moderate to powerful MJO heading into our basin which could easily make the month of October quite active. Certainly would not be out of the question for 2011 to produce between 19-21 named storms rivaling the 2nd and 3rd busiests hurricane seasons ever recorded.
She's tiny.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
570. If this is your idea of uneventful, I would seriously dread to see your idea of eventful.

Some people are not satisfied with 10billion $$$$ storms, they want death and destruction like what happened with Andrew and Katrina and Ike.
582. ackee
Quoting Drakoen:
Many of the dynamic MJO forecast models forecast for a moderate to powerful MJO heading into our basin which could easily make the month of October quite active. Certainly would not be out of the question for 2011 to produce between 19-21 named storms rivaling the 2nd and 3rd busiests hurricane seasons ever recorded.
agree given that we have seen lot system take a more northerly track because of a weaker HIGH I think any thing that does form in the carrb may track more N or NE guess we see
Quoting PlazaRed:
Morning Everybody,
Peace and tranquility for some of us this morning!
Everywhere I look today there are things bringing woe.
We have the typhoon,Nalgae,which is sure to be causing historical damage to all in its path with more to come? Texas with little hope of respite and now {I hope this is wrong!}with maybe another "9"years of drought conditions.
The UK has got +30?c so they have traffic congestion as people rush to the coasts in search of a last glimmering ray of watery sunshine before the arctic winter returns and they are assured that all snow gritters are chomping at the bit should blizzards strike early.
Here in southern Spain we have survived September without rain in my area, that's 6,months and now NOAA says its not going to be a wet start to the winter here. Today we have about 40MPH dry winds screaming past my window, humidity very low. Plus a possible volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands on the cards.
I just had a thought!That maybe some people could post a few comments on what is going well in their area at the moment?For a change that is!

uggg negative nagative....there are sooo many great things going on.... leaves changing colours in the midwest....first cold front of the season coming thru s fla tonight, a hurricane season that has been non-existent. I can go on & on how good things are happening all the time. Carpe Diem my friend....enjoy the day...seize the moment.. Breather brother/sister. Everyday we live life on this earth is another reason to say...WOW!!!! We can always find the negatives but sometimes take a look and see if you csa find the positives!
CARPE DIEM!
Quoting DDR:

Hello from Trinidad
It's currently 32.3 c
high humidity,rain is likely today,we are slightly above average in terms of rainfall,heading into la nina with a high chance again of above average rains over the next 3-4 months.

Not so in Central ....
For July-Sept, we are 7" below average at my location.

Long periods of very hot days (92-95) with occasional torrential cloudbursts.
On tuesday last, had a 40 minute downpour of 3.5"
Not a drop since then, although every day we see the dark clouds to the North and South and hear the thunder....

The downpours look good on the rainfall figures, but the truth is that the water runs off so fast and the following day is so hot that the ground is still relatively dry.

Was in Brasso Seco this week.
The Imortelles are flowering.
The Old Heads there say we will get an "early dryseason".
I hope they are wrong!
Quoting pottery:

Not so in Central ....
For July-Sept, we are 7" below average at my location.


The Old Heads there say we will get an "early dry season".
I hope they are wrong!



At any hint of a "Dry Season"
I recommend stocking up on
Rhum and other libations!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia is the first major hurricane in the month of October in the Atlantic since Hurricane Omar, 3 years ago. Ophelia is the first major CV hurricane in the month of October since Hurricane Kate of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, nearly 8 years ago.

A very powerful upward MJO now appears possible in the next few weeks, and monsoonal development appears very likely there for our next few systems. I have no doubt that October will be active if this verifies.


I hope this will verify. 2 weeks without a drop of significant rain is not normal this time of year in the NE caribbean.
Maybe will have a storm tracking like omar did.
Beech Mountain, North Carolina

Good Morning.
1/oct/2011
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning.
1/oct/2011


BORING AT THIS TIME !!!!
Quoting Walshy:
Beech Mountain, North Carolina

Is that snow?
Quoting MoltenIce:
Is that snow?


Yes.

Hurricane force winds were reported on Grandfather Mountain last night and snow showers broke out above 4,500ft. Flurries reported as low as 3,000ft near Boone.
Quoting CaribBoy:


BORING AT THIS TIME !!!!


That wave south of Philippe has flared somewhat.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That wave south of Philippe has flared somewhat.


yes but will pass south of me
583. 954FtLCane
Thank you. I was only wondering about how everything at the moment seems to be reflecting all that is bad and although it is easy to say observations are negative they are only observations based on the written words of the people who comment.
Ive been sat out in the sun on a quiet Saturday afternoon in 30/c,although a bit windy here but the thoughts must be that the negative comments are always in the majority, if you leave out the pure informative comments which only state facts as seen from the point of view of learned bloggers.
Over the time that I have been watching here it always seems that the negative comments predominate and this is maybe why so many people have left.
597. 7544
well our p strom will go fishing like all the rest have done time for the caribiean to get rolling it oct 1 ande the blog needs so mething good to track stay tuned
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia is the first major hurricane in the month of October in the Atlantic since Hurricane Omar, 3 years ago. Ophelia is the first major CV hurricane in the month of October since Hurricane Kate of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, nearly 8 years ago.

A very powerful upward MJO now appears possible in the next few weeks, and monsoonal development appears very likely there for our next few systems. I have no doubt that October will be active if this verifies.


Sweet Jesus... that looks like a deadly MJO forecast. :P
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ophelia is the first major hurricane in the month of October in the Atlantic since Hurricane Omar, 3 years ago. Ophelia is the first major CV hurricane in the month of October since Hurricane Kate of the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season, nearly 8 years ago.

A very powerful upward MJO now appears possible in the next few weeks, and monsoonal development appears very likely there for our next few systems. I have no doubt that October will be active if this verifies.


Well Kate and Ophelia are both September crossovers. Omar was more significant being that it was mid October.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



At any hint of a "Dry Season"
I recommend stocking up on
Rhum and other libations!

And what do you have against those Libations, in the Rainy Season????
Whether it rains or not, it's ALWAYS hot.
A continuous flow of Libations is absolutely Necessary!

:):))

Right now, at the Airport (piarco, in the search box above)--
Temp 93F
Humid. 52% edited

At my location---
Temp 93.6F
Humid. 54%

Libation Time!
And just to clarify---

52% humidity is ridiculous for Oct 1st.
This is supposed to be the peak of the Rainy Season, when Tropical Waves, the ITCZ, and the warm SST's combine to dump endless rains here.

What we are getting is occasional cloudbursts.
None of those days and days of rainy drizzly weather.
And I dont remember when last we had a thunderstorm at night.
Used to be an Aug-Sept-Oct regular feature.
Philippe looks better today.


Ophelia's looking good as well.
NEW BLOG
if anyone can loop the bermuda radar,i think the eye will be visible coming north
Good Morning... nice cool start to the day today.