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Ten Civilizations or Nations That Collapsed From Drought

By: Jeff Masters 3:15 PM GMT on March 21, 2016

Drought is the great enemy of human civilization. Drought deprives us of the two things necessary to sustain life--food and water. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live. While the fall of a great empire is usually due to a complex set of causes, drought has often been identified as the primary culprit or a significant contributing factor in a surprising number of such collapses. Drought experts Justin Sheffield and Eric Wood of Princeton, in their 2011 book, Drought, identify more than ten civilizations, cultures and nations that probably collapsed, in part, because of drought. As we mark World Water Day on March 22, we should not grow overconfident that our current global civilization is immune from our old nemesis--particularly in light of the fact that a hotter climate due to global warming will make droughts more intense and impacts more severe. So, presented here is a "top ten" list of drought's great power over some of the mightiest civilizations in world history--presented chronologically.



Collapse #1. The Akkadian Empire in Syria, 2334 BC - 2193 BC. In Mesopotamia 4200 years ago, the great Akkadian Empire united all the indigenous Akkadian-speaking Semites and the Sumerian speakers, and controlled Mesopotamia, the Levant, and parts of Iran, sending military expeditions as far south as present-day Oman. In a 2000 article published in Geology, "Climate change and the collapse of the Akkadian empire: Evidence from the deep sea", a team of researchers led by Heidi Cullen studied deposits of continental dust blown into the Gulf of Oman in the late 1990s. They discovered a large increase in dust 4200 years ago that likely coincided with a 100-year drought that brought a 30% decline in precipitation to Syria. The drought, called the 4.2 kiloyear event, is thought to have been caused by cooler sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The 4.2 kiloyear event has also been linked to the collapse of the Old Kingdom in Egypt (see below). The paper concluded, "Geochemical correlation of volcanic ash shards between the archeological site and marine sediment record establishes a direct temporal link between Mesopotamian aridification and social collapse, implicating a sudden shift to more arid conditions as a key factor contributing to the collapse of the Akkadian empire." In this image, we see Stele of Narâm-Sîn, king of the Akkadian Empire, celebrating his victory against the Lullubi from Zagros. Limestone, c. 2250 BC, Louvre Museum. Image credit: Marie-Lan Nguyen.




Collapse #2. The Old Kingdom of ancient Egypt, 4200 years ago. The same drought that brought down the Akkadian empire in Syria severely shrank the normal floods on the Nile River in ancient Egypt. Without regular floods to fertilize the fields, poor harvests led to reduced tax income and insufficient funds to finance the pharaoh's government, hastening the collapse of Egypt's pyramid-building Old Kingdom. An inscription on the tomb of Ankhtifi during the collapse describes the pitiful state of the country when famine stalked the land: "the whole country has become like locusts going in search of food…" In this image, we see two great structures from the Old Kingdom: The Pyramid of Khafre and the Great Sphinx of Giza. Image credit: wunderphotographer Jeff41.




Collapse #3. The Late Bronze Age (LBA) civilization in the Eastern Mediterranean. About 3200 years ago, the Eastern Mediterranean hosted some of the world’s most advanced civilizations. The Mycenaean culture was flourishing in Greece and Crete. The chariot-riding Hittites had carved out a vast empire encompassing a large part of Asia Minor and the Middle East. In Egypt, the New Kingdom was at its height. However, around 1200 BC, these Eastern Mediterranean civilizations declined or collapsed. According to a 2013 study in PLOS, studying grains of fossilized pollen shows that this collapse coincided with the onset of a 300-year drought event. This climate shift caused crop failures and famine, which "precipitated or hastened socio-economic crises and forced regional human migrations at the end of the LBA in the Eastern Mediterranean and southwest Asia." In this image, we see the fall of Troy (complete with the famed Trojan Horse), an event recounted in Greek mythology at the end of the Bronze Age, as represented by the 17th century painter Kerstiaen De Keuninck. Image credit: Wikipedia Commons.




Collapse #4. The Maya civilization of 250 - 900 AD in Mexico. Severe drought killed millions of Maya people due to famine and lack of water, and initiated a cascade of internal collapses that destroyed their civilization at the peak of their cultural development, between 750 - 900 AD. Haug, G.H. et al., in their 2003 paper in Science, "Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization," documented substantial multi-year droughts coinciding with the collapse of the Maya civilization. In this image, we see the Mayan ruins at Xunantunich. Image credit: wunderphotographer novembergale.




Collapse #5. The Tang Dynasty in China, 700 - 907 AD. At the same time as the Mayan collapse, China was also experiencing the collapse of its ruling empire, the Tang Dynasty. Dynastic changes in China often occurred because of popular uprisings during crop failure and famine associated with drought. The Tang dynasty--a golden age of literature and art in Chinese civilization--began to weaken in the eighth century, and it fully collapsed in 907 AD. Sediments from Lake Huguang Maar in China dated to the time of the collapse of the Tang Dynasty indicate a sudden and sustained decline in summertime monsoon rainfall. Agriculture in China depends upon the summer monsoon, which supplies about 70% of the year's rain in just a few months. A 2007 article in Nature by Yancheva et al. speculated that "migrations in the tropical rain belt could have contributed to the simultaneous declines of both the Tang dynasty in China and the Classic Maya in Central America." In this image, we see the world's largest sitting Buddah, the 71-metre (234-feet) tall Leshan Giant Bubbha, built in 713 AD in the Chinese Tang Dynasty, in China's southwestern city of Leshan, in Sichuan province. Image credit: Liu Jin/AFP/Getty Images.




Collapse 6. The Tiwanaku Empire of Bolivia's Lake Titicaca region, 300 - 1000 AD. The Tiwanaku Empire was one of the most important South American civilizations prior to the Inca Empire. After dominating the region for 500 years, the Tiwanaku Empire ended abruptly between 1000 - 1100 AD, following a drying of the region, as measured by ice accumulation in the Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru. Sediment cores from nearby Lake Titicaca document a 10-meter drop in lake level at this time. In this image, we see tourists exploring the Tiwanaku archaeological site in Tiahuanaco, Bolivia. Image credit: AIZAR RALDES/AFP/Getty Images.




Collapse 7. The Ancestral Puebloan (Anasazi) culture in the Southwest U.S. in the 11th - 12th centuries AD. Beginning in 1150 AD, North America experienced a 300-year drought called the Great Drought. This drought has often been cited as a primary cause of the collapse of the ancestral Puebloan (formally called Anasazi) civilization in the Southwest U.S., and abandonment of places like the Cliff Palace at Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado. The Mississippian culture, a mound-building Native American civilization that flourished in what is now the Midwestern, Eastern, and Southeastern United States, also collapsed at this time. Cliff Palace image credit: wunderphotographer Amtnspirit.




Collapse #8. The Khmer Empire based in Angkor, Cambodia, 802 - 1431 AD. The Khmer Empire ruled Southeast Asia for over 600 years, but was done in by a series of intense decades-long droughts interspersed with intense monsoons in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries that, in combination with other factors, contributed to the empire's demise. The climatic evidence comes from a seven-and-a-half century reconstruction from tropical southern Vietnamese tree rings presented in a 2010 study by Buckley et al., "Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor, Cambodia". They wrote: "The Angkor droughts were of a duration and severity that would have impacted the sprawling city’s water supply and agricultural productivity, while high-magnitude monsoon years damaged its water control infrastructure." In this image, we see the ruins of Baphuon, a temple-mountain dedicated to the Hindu God Shiva in Angkor. Image credit: Jean-Pierre Dalbéra.




Collapse #9. The Ming Dynasty in China, 1368 - 1644 AD. China's Ming Dynasty--one of the greatest eras of orderly government and social stability in human history--collapsed at a time when the most severe drought in the region in over 4000 years was occurring, according to sediments from Lake Huguang Maar analyzed in a 2007 article in Nature by Yancheva et al. Drought experts Justin Sheffield and Eric Wood of Princeton, in their 2011 book, Drought, speculated that a weakened summer monsoon driven by warm El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific was responsible for the intense drought, which led to widespread famine. An inscription found carved on a wall of Dayu Cave in the Qinling Mountains of Central China dated July 10, 1596, during the 24th year of the MIng Dynasty's Emperor Wanli, said: Mountains are crying due to drought." In the image above, we see another inscription on the wall of the same cave from a much later drought in 1891. It reads: "On May 24th, 17th year of the Emperor Guangxu period (June 30th, 1891 CE), Qing Dynasty, the local mayor, Huaizong Zhu led more than 200 people into the cave to get water. A fortuneteller named Zhenrong Ran prayed for rain during a ceremony." Image credit: L. Tan.




Collapse #10. Modern Syria. Syria's devastating civil war that began in March 2011 has killed over 300,000 people, displaced at least 7.6 million, and created an additional 4.2 million refugees. While the causes of the war are complex, a key contributing factor was the nation's devastating drought that began in 1998. The drought brought Syria's most severe set of crop failures in recorded history, which forced millions of people to migrate from rural areas into cities, where conflict erupted. This drought was almost certainly Syria's worst in the past 500 years (98% chance), and likely the worst for at least the past 900 years (89% chance), according to a 2016 tree ring study by Cook et al., "Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years." Human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases were "a key attributable factor" in the drying up of wintertime precipitation in the Mediterranean region, including Syria, in recent decades, as discussed in a NOAA press release that accompanied a 2011 paper by Hoerling et al., On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought. A 2016 paper by drought expert Colin Kelley showed that the influence of human greenhouse gas emissions had made recent drought in the region 2 - 3 times more likely. Wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has his take on the current drought in Syria in his March 21 post, Ineffective Resolution: Middle East and Climate Change. In this image, we see Kurdish Syrian girls among destroyed buildings in the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobane on March 22, 2015. Image credit: Yasin Akgul/AFP/Getty Images.

References
Buckley, B.M. et al., 2010, "Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor, Cambodia," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107, 6748–6752 (2010).

Cook, B.I. et al., 2016, "Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years," JGR Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023929

Cullen, H.M., and P.B. deMenocal, 2000, North Atlantic Influence on TIgris-Euphrates Streamflow, International Journal of Climatology, 20: 853-863.

Cullen et al., 2000, "Climate change and the collapse of the Akkadian empire: Evidence from the deep sea," Geology 28, 379 (2000).

deMenocal, P.B., 2001, "Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene," Science 292, 667–673 (2001).

Gleick, P., 2014, Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria, Weather, Climate, and Society, published online 1 July 2014, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1

Haug, G.H. et al., 2003, "Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization," Science 299, 1731–1735 (2003).

Hoerling, Martin, Jon Eischeid, Judith Perlwitz, Xiaowei Quan, Tao Zhang, Philip Pegion, 2012, On the Increased Frequency of Mediterranean Drought, J. Climate, 25, 2146–2161, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1

Kaniewski, D. et al., 2012, Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East, PNAS 109:10, 3862–3867, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1116304109

Kaniewski, D. et al., 2013, "Environmental Roots of the Late Bronze Age Crisis," PLOS one, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0071004

Kelley, C.P. et al., 2016, "Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought," PNAS vol. 112 no. 11, 3241–3246, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1421533112

Ortloff, C.R. and A.L. Kolata, 1992, "Climate and Collapse: Agro-Ecological Perspectives on the Decline of the Tiwanaku State," J. of Archaeological Science 1992, 195-221.

Wendel, JoAnna, 2015, Chinese Cave Inscriptions Tell Woeful Tale of Drought," EOS, 1 October 2015.

Yancheva, G. et al., 2007, "Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East Asian monsoon," Nature 445, 74–77 (2007).

The next post will be Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great post! And on that note, Happy 248th birthday to Joseph Fourier, the first person to suggest that the atmosphere helped keep the Earth warmer than expected. John Tyndall then identified the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in 1861.
Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 1.7ºC
Niño 3 1.7ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC
Cool

Hey Doc when are we gonna see you do update on current ENSO and forecast as well as maybe a sneek peek into what we may see for Atlantic Hurricane season 2016 (NOT your forecast I know that don't come around until April-May-June timeframe but just a quick peek into what we might see unofficially I guess you can call it)
From last blog

Quoting 310. Tropicsweatherpr:

Nino 3.4 continues to creep downward as the CPC 3/21/16 update is down to +1.7C.



CPC Weekly Update
Quoting 314. Tazmanian:

With today Nino 3.4 at 1.7 looks like the strong. El Niño. Has been Dowgraded from strong too mod EL Nino


Others that keep track on anomalies in Niño regions have weekly values lower some have 1.6 even BOM which has it the loses has 3.4 at 1.5 and falling CPC might be modest

I'll take the median value and say 1.6

I say no doubt El Niño is no longer strong and I'd say soon to be down to weak and maybe we might see neutral by Early mid Spring

Anyway sub surface is really cooling off the sub surface anoms chart now switched to negative

Anyway next weeks update and BOM update on the 29th March and first week of April updates should be very interesting

Also wanted to point out even though CFS is a very big outlier right now I've noticed on every update over the last few updates it has been dropping in intensity shifting bit by bit closer to neutral and La Niña I think when we start getting out of the Spring predictability barrier the CFS will follow suit with the rest of the models into La Niña

Speaking about Spring predictability barrier I say that the models are being a bit slow on transition and weak on intensity of the incoming La Niña due to us entering the Spring predictability barrier IMO
Quoting 2. JRRP7:

Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 1.7ºC
Niño 3 1.7ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC


I say it's a tad bit cooler that this IMO
Quoting 5. wunderkidcayman:



I say it's a tad bit cooler that this IMO

for the first time in long long long time... I see blue color here
This article drips with irony considering the source. A 300 year drought is not considered climate change? Who's being blind here to the fact that climate change is a part of nature and is not something man has brought about?
Blog name: "We're Just Warming Up" or "Mother Nature is Just Warming Up" or just "Just Warming Up".
Quoting 6. JRRP7:


for the first time in long long long time... I see blue color here



So so very very true

I tell you this it is a very welcomed sight
Thanks Doc...Great information...Shows the repercussion or ripple effect on a great and unfortunately devastating scale.
Once again we are reminded that there are situations we have absolutely no control over. We are blessed to be able to choose to live our short lives on this amazing planet in positive ways. Darkness only exists in the absence of light.. so be 'shiny' today and don't be afraid to be kind to those around you. And for the love of God, get outside and enjoy at least a few minutes of sunshine!

Quoting 7. AZTrojan:

Who's being blind here...?
Ooh! Pick me! Pick me!

The point, young friend, is that throughout history, climate changes have repeatedly taken out numerous established and advanced (for their time) civilizations. That's because their very establishment leaves them vulnerable to the climate. That is, it's much easier to pack up and move a handful of tents than it is to forcibly relocate a large city with all its infrastructure. Our current civilization--billions of people whose sustenance is based on a more-or-less stable climate--is particularly vulnerable. And thanks to the four million metric tons of excess CO2 we're freeing from underground sequestration and pumping into the atmosphere every hour of every day, the climate is indeed changing. Rapidly. And not many of us live in tents.
Thank You Dr. And here are some of the current world areas affected by drought with the Syrian drought noted:

http://www.drought.gov/gdm/current-conditions


At the end of February 2016, El Nino continues to exert its influence across the earth and is expected to continue at least through spring of 2016. February was the warmest February on record (137 year history) for the earth, according to NOAA and NASA. In Europe, drought conditions further intensified around the Mediterranean Sea this month.  In Asia, drought remains entrenched across the Indian sub-continent, around Mongolia, and in the West. Tree ring research in the Middle East indicate the present drought, beginning in 1998, is likely the most severe in the last 900 years, according to NASA. In Vietnam, the Mekong River is at its lowest level since 1926. In Africa, short-term drought intensified again this month in the northern portion of the continent, around the Mediterranean, and remains intense in the South. In Zambia and Zimbabwe, Victoria Falls are being affected by the Zambezi River flowing at a 30-year low. If the drought continues, downstream hydroelectric power is expected to be reduced or stopped in the next six months. In Morocco, drought has reduced the wheat harvest by half. In North America, drought remains entrenched in the higher latitudes, while the Southwestern U.S.  experienced some drying. In the US Pacific Northwest, an ample snowpack has improved, and is expected to further improve, drought conditions there.  In South America, drought remains in the northern part of the continent while the South saw much-needed rain again this month. In Colombia, farmers from the Bolivar Province have abandoned their land after drought ruined their crops. In Oceana, drought continues in Southern Australia and Papua New Guinea. Australian beef sales to the U.S. have increased over the past three years, while drought in the U.S. Southwest reduced livestock there.
Quoting 7. AZTrojan:

This article drips with irony considering the source. A 300 year drought is not considered climate change? Who's being blind here to the fact that climate change is a part of nature and is not something man has brought about?


You might have glossed over this sentence in the post that addresses your point:

We should not grow overconfident that our current global civilization is immune from our old nemesis--particularly in light of the fact that a hotter climate due to global warming will make droughts more intense.

Quoting 7. AZTrojan:

This article drips with irony considering the source. A 300 year drought is not considered climate change? Who's being blind here to the fact that climate change is a part of nature and is not something man has brought about?


Yes, climate change has often been natural. That doesn't mean that it can't be human-caused, though, and the physics of putting so much human-emitted CO2 in the air demand that significant climate change must occur. By analogy, if you see a wildfire, do you automatically assume it is natural since lightning-sparked wildfires have always been around? No, you must now rule out arson as a possible cause, since humans certainly can and do spark wildfires.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 7. AZTrojan:

This article drips with irony considering the source. A 300 year drought is not considered climate change? Who's being blind here to the fact that climate change is a part of nature and is not something man has brought about?


Your the one who is "blind".

We can count, thats how. Where do you think all the CO2 from fossil fuel burning goes?

The CO2 Fairies don't come out at night and wave a wand do they?


Global Climate Change Indicators



Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.

Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.



: P


You do know that the Carbon we use it tracebale
Thanks for addressing this important weather- and climate-related subject.

I wonder if any correlation has been shown between the disappearance of the Mississippian culture and the Great American Drought, or if it was just coincidental? Certainly, if Pueblo residents had moved into the Mississippi valley in response to the drought, this could lead to conflict, but I am unaware of any evidence to support this migration.
Cool, the ol Triple Dog Dare has arrived @ wu.


Excellent'
One of the best blogs ever. Very interesting reading. It brings back a lot of memories. I've often wondered how a country, who has never really known hunger, would react when they come to the realization that their food doesn't come from the supermarket. Good job, Doc.
We have Climate Refugees in Louisiana today.

So the future is here already.

Louisiana's vanishing island: the climate 'refugees' resettling for $52m

Isle de Jean Charles has lost 98% of its land and most of its population to rising sea levels but as remaining residents consider relocation, what happens next is a test case to address resettlement needs



Wenceslaus Billiot, an 88-year-old native of Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana, remembers growing up on a much different island than the two-mile sliver of his ancestral home that remains today.

When I was a kid I used to do trapping in the back, he said, gesturing towards the back of the small, one-story house that stands elevated on stilts to escape the floods that roll in from the bayou after nearly every storm. You could walk for a long time. Now, nothing but water.

The back balcony overlooks a vast expanse of water leading to Terrebonne Bay and, further, the Gulf of Mexico that now lies in his backyard.

Billiot and his equally sprightly 91-year-old wife, Denecia Naquin, are among the last remaining residents of this island, which has lost 98% of its land and most of its population to coastal erosion and rising sea levels since 1955. The population, which peaked at around 400, is now down to around 85.

Quoting 19. Grothar:

One of the best blogs ever. Very interesting reading. It brings back a lot of memories. I've often wondered how a country, who has never really known hunger, would react when they come to the realization that their food doesn't come from the supermarket. Good job, Doc.
Greetings Gro. Not only does this entry show what can happen to civilizations, it also shows how much of the current trend will affect the Earths biosphere. When huge droughts occur, this means way less trees, leaves, plants, grasses etc, bringing less oxygen and more Co2. I notice here that the trees are not as lush because of the changing patterns. Trees that were usually plush and full for spring and summer, are about half what they were. Meaning less C02 to O2 transfer. This is really bad news..
Quoting 19. Grothar:

One of the best blogs ever. Very interesting reading. It brings back a lot of memories. I've often wondered how a country, who has never really known hunger, would react when they come to the realization that their food doesn't come from the supermarket. Good job, Doc.

Those sandstone blocks were heavy, weren't they?
23. SLU
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 17h17 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

I am on record forecasting a Post nino la nina from LAST SPRING. So AGW people, instead of showing CFSV2 make forecast. La Nina, yes or no?
25. SLU
It's obvious the CFSv2 forecast will bust

The derp be deep on a Monday.


Quoting 26. Patrap:

The derp be deep on a Monday.




Resistance is Futile.
Quoting 22. oldnewmex:


Those sandstone blocks were heavy, weren't they?


He has a bad back, just ask the Egyptians.
Americans, many Europeans, and people living in other wealthier nation-states are not used to "pain" when you look at the global post-WW II economic boom in terms of serious food shortages and the related ability of the wealthier nations to import food from other parts of the globe (or from alternative sites) in larger countries from growing regions not experiencing drought. Even then, the Soviet Union experienced some serious drought related-wheat crop failures in the 70's and 80's which caused food lines (and massive purchases from the US) and right now, with the EEU agreements, many of the citrus products and vegetables consumed in Western Europe are actually grown (and distributed) out of the southern tier of the EEU like the Mediterranean regions and as far south as Morocco.

Point being that past Civilizations noted in the post did not have the ability to import food from far away which contributed to the collapse issues versus the current global economy and the ability of nations to contribute foreign aid (often in the form of food relief) to nations on the verge of humanitarian disaster because of drought or water shortage issues.

Drought will always be with us in form or another but how we handle these current and future ones in the modern world-global economy against the backdrop of climate change, and try to prevent the potential collapse of a particular group of peoples, is a significant challenge ahead.
If we cut the US defense Budget by 10% annually, we could feed every Home in America and send their children to college for free.

Let dat one roll around ones insides a tad.

War and burning fossil fuels to run a Planet with a Main Sequence Yellow Star only 93,000,000 miles away is stupid.

Easily

Quoting 24. bjrabbit:

At finishing reading, I thought...this is crazy...with modern technology this is never going to happen again. But after thinking about it for awhile, these events may happen again if these global warming types has their way...when our modern power generation facilities are decimated in order to have "clean, renewable energy" events like these will be possible.

What the esteemed Dr has neglected to point out is that wherever there was drought, somewhere it was raining or perhaps conditions became more temperate....allowing ANOTHER civilization to flourish. Ah, but pointing that out would put a little rain cloud on the doom and gloom post by the Doc.

Look at England for goodness sakes with blackouts due to taking coal generated power stations off-line and the stupid decision in Germany to go off nuclear in the 2020's. What will happen then? All in the name of the greatest hoax in history...

Modern environmentalists/leftists and ISIS have the same goal...to take society back 1300 years.

Bert


"to take society back 1300 years"

Yes, that's exactly what all the world's scientific institutions want to do, eliminate themselves and return to the non-scientific Dark Ages. They're such fools.
Quoting 5. wunderkidcayman:



I say it's a tad bit cooler that this IMO
Why You think is colder?
Quoting 23. SLU:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 17h17 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

I am on record forecasting a Post nino la nina from LAST SPRING. So AGW people, instead of showing CFSV2 make forecast. La Nina, yes or no?



I fail to see how this relates to "AGW people". Transitions from El Ninos frequently move into La Nina conditions, Super El Ninos tend to have multi-year La Ninas that follow (small sample size warning). It would make sense that we would see a La Nina next, and possibly a prolonged one.
Quoting 24. bjrabbit:

At finishing reading, I thought...this is crazy...with modern technology this is never going to happen again. But after thinking about it for awhile, these events may happen again if these global warming types has their way...when our modern power generation facilities are decimated in order to have "clean, renewable energy" events like these will be possible.

What the esteemed Dr has neglected to point out is that wherever there was drought, somewhere it was raining or perhaps conditions became more temperate....allowing ANOTHER civilization to flourish. Ah, but pointing that out would put a little rain cloud on the doom and gloom post by the Doc.

Look at England for goodness sakes with blackouts due to taking coal generated power stations off-line and the stupid decision in Germany to go off nuclear in the 2020's. What will happen then? All in the name of the greatest hoax in history...

Modern environmentalists/leftists and ISIS have the same goal...to take society back 1300 years.

Bert



Have you ever spent any time with a well-reasoned thought?

Should we not have well established renewable energy sources in place, long before fossil fuels have become depleted, then you have helped to satisfy your argument that we cannot adapt to a changing climate. Fossil fuels will become too expensive to use long before they become depleted.

While some areas may benefit from a changing climate other areas will suffer. Would you imagine the economic and political turmoils that would follow with populations trying to migrate from one region to another due to climate change?

What are your plans, bjrabiit? The "business as usual" approach? You do not see the err in doing this?
The level of self-centered ignorance, and unabashed refusal to educate yourself and broaden your views (and speak intelligently on issues), so prevalent out there in many parts of society (in the US and in the World today) as highlighted by some of the comments below, is frightening..........
Quoting 33. Naga5000:



I fail to see how this relates to "AGW people". Transitions from El Ninos frequently move into La Nina conditions, Super El Ninos tend to have multi-year La Ninas that follow (small sample size warning). It would make sense that we would see a La Nina next, and possibly a prolonged one.


He's trolling for the Karma/clickbaits
JB.

...proving once again He is the Chief Ding-Dong over @ Weatherbong.
Quoting 24. bjrabbit:

At finishing reading, I thought...this is crazy...with modern technology this is never going to happen again. But after thinking about it for awhile, these events may happen again if these global warming types has their way...when our modern power generation facilities are decimated in order to have "clean, renewable energy" events like these will be possible.

What the esteemed Dr has neglected to point out is that wherever there was drought, somewhere it was raining or perhaps conditions became more temperate....allowing ANOTHER civilization to flourish. Ah, but pointing that out would put a little rain cloud on the doom and gloom post by the Doc.

Look at England for goodness sakes with blackouts due to taking coal generated power stations off-line and the stupid decision in Germany to go off nuclear in the 2020's. What will happen then? All in the name of the greatest hoax in history...

Modern environmentalists/leftists and ISIS have the same goal...to take society back 1300 years.

Bert


We have already seen two big changes in global precipitation patterns. The first being wet places are getting wetter and dry places drier and the second being a more poleward migration of rainfall events coupled with an expanding tropical zone Link.

The big difference now in regards to this statement

"What the esteemed Dr has neglected to point out is that wherever there was drought, somewhere it was raining or perhaps conditions became more temperate....allowing ANOTHER civilization to flourish. Ah, but pointing that out would put a little rain cloud on the doom and gloom post by the Doc."

is that in the current context of the world, a transition from a globally powerful civilization to a collapse, or the rise of another, has direct implications to the global power structure by way of economics, industry, population, technological advancement, etc. The type of massive structural change, which you give no evidence of actually occurring in the past, would be global turmoil based on the power relationships societies have carved out. Much easier to undertake when there were just a few civilizations flourishing on their own with little to no reliance and interaction with other civilizations, much more difficult in today's world.
Quoting 35. weathermanwannabe:

The level of self-centered ignorance, and unabashed refusal to educate yourself and broaden your views (and speak intelligently on issues), so prevalent out there in many parts of society (in the US and in the World today) as highlighted by some of the comments below, is frightening..........


I will forward this to "R" Lamar Smith within the Hour, thanks.




NOAA should focus on weather, not climate change, says Rep. Lamar Smith

At a budget hearing for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Wednesday, conversation focused on the administration's purpose. And for Chairman Smith, this has nothing to do with climate change.
By Story Hinckley, Staff MARCH 18, 2016


The US House of Representatives subcommittee on environment held a budget hearing Wednesday to discuss the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s funding during fiscal year 2017. NOAA's $5.9 billion request, a $77 million increase from fiscal year 2016, led to greater discussion on the agency's overall purpose in the US government.

Rep. Lamar Smith (R) of Texas, chairman of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, to which the subcommittee on the environment answers, butted heads yet again with NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, questioning the administration’s climate change research.

The Smith vs. Sullivan feud goes back to last June, when NOAA scientists published a study arguing that a "pause" in global warming never existed. As a strict climate change denier (and someone who has received over $600,000 in donations from the fossil fuel industry), Rep. Smith insisted that the authors fudged the data and subpoenaed NOAA, demanding that all internal communication between the study’s authors be turned over to his committee for examination. Sullivan has since refused, citing the importance of scientific autonomy.

Smith devoted almost his entire 729-word opening statement what he called NOAA’s biased climate change agenda. NOAA's budget request included $190 million for climate change research: a little more than three percent of the administration’s overall proposed budget.

Dr. Sullivan responded that her administration works to protect the US from more than just hail storms.

“NOAA forecasts help communities prepare and respond to weather events, including the severe storms that swept through Texas last year, tornado events across the mid-west and Florida, and the recent winter storm that struck the Northeast,” writes Dr. Sullivan in her statement. “But the greater demand for our services goes beyond just extreme weather.”

NOAA should focus on weather, not climate change, says Rep. Lamar Smith.


At a budget hearing for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Wednesday, conversation focused on the administration's purpose. And for Chairman Smith, this has nothing to do with climate change.
By Story Hinckley, Staff MARCH 18, 2016

The US House of Representatives subcommittee on environment held a budget hearing Wednesday to discuss the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s funding during fiscal year 2017. NOAA's $5.9 billion request, a $77 million increase from fiscal year 2016, led to greater discussion on the agency's overall purpose in the US government.

Rep. Lamar Smith (R) of Texas, chairman of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, to which the subcommittee on the environment answers, butted heads yet again with NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, questioning the administration’s climate change research.

The Smith vs. Sullivan feud goes back to last June, when NOAA scientists published a study arguing that a "pause" in global warming never existed. As a strict climate change denier (and someone who has received over $600,000 in donations from the fossil fuel industry), Rep. Smith insisted that the authors fudged the data and subpoenaed NOAA, demanding that all internal communication between the study’s authors be turned over to his committee for examination. Sullivan has since refused, citing the importance of scientific autonomy.

Recommended: Climate change: Is your opinion informed by science? Take our quiz!
Smith devoted almost his entire 729-word opening statement what he called NOAA’s biased climate change agenda. NOAA's budget request included $190 million for climate change research: a little more than three percent of the administration’s overall proposed budget.


TEST YOUR KNOWLEDGE Climate change: Is your opinion informed by science? Take our quiz!

PHOTOS OF THE DAY Photos of the weekend
“Instead of hyping a climate change agenda, NOAA should focus its efforts on producing sound science and improving methods of data collection,” said Smith. “NOAA should prioritize areas of research that significantly impact Americans today, such as ways to improve weather forecasting. Unfortunately, climate alarmism often takes priority at NOAA.”

Dr. Sullivan responded that her administration works to protect the US from more than just hail storms.

“NOAA forecasts help communities prepare and respond to weather events, including the severe storms that swept through Texas last year, tornado events across the mid-west and Florida, and the recent winter storm that struck the Northeast,” writes Dr. Sullivan in her statement. “But the greater demand for our services goes beyond just extreme weather.”

Besides Chairman Smith, the committee’s 21 other Republican members and 17 Democratic members stayed mum on NOAA’s relationship with climate research at the budget meeting.

Except for Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) of Texas, the committee’s ranking member, who backed up Sullivan.

“It is clear to me that this investigation is unfounded, and it is being driven by ideology and other agendas,” says Johnson. “The majority has asserted, without offering any credible evidence, that NOAA and the climate science community at large are part of some grand conspiracy to falsify data in support of the significant role humans play in climate change. However, the overwhelming body of scientific evidence across many different fields has shown that this is not the case.”

Spread is massive.

Very warm Epac should have big effects for the next hurricane season.


Quoting 30. Patrap:

If we cut the US defense Budget by 10% annually, we could feed every Home in America and send their children to college for free.

Let dat one roll around ones insides a tad.

War and burning fossil fuels to run a Planet with a Main Sequence Yellow Star only 93,000,000 miles away is stupid.

Easily




I don't go to work and give up many family opportunities to feed people or put them through college. If you are handicapped (such as paralysed or very low iq) I am more than happy to help support. On the other hand if you are lazy or make poor decisions or don't want to do what you have to do because you have to move or be gone from family and friends for long stretches to bad you are on your own.

If you want to go to college pay for it, example when I grew up 1 out of 4 kids in our own family went to college because it was all we could afford. The other 3 of us just kept on working

Maybe life isn't fair so what nothing is.
I know, 360 hrs and all, but gosh, noooo!

Not the same beast.
A little more "science" from a new study to add to the conversation:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/03/relatively -slow-greenhouse-injections-triggered-ancient-hoth ouse


There is a cautionary tale buried in Earth’s past. Some 56 million years ago, about 10 million years after the dinosaurs went extinct, a massive amount of carbon surged into the atmosphere, triggering a rise in temperature of 5°C. Scientists often look to the so-called Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) as an analog for today’s rising temperatures, because the magnitude of that ancient carbon injection is thought to be comparable to what humans will release if fossil fuel emissions continue unabated for a few more centuries. But just how quickly the injection happened has been debated. Now, a new study suggests that the carbon was vented over 4000 years—making the overall carbon injection rate about 10 times slower than today’s rate. That’s worrisome, the study’s authors say, because the emission rate matters, particularly when it comes to the adaptive response of plants and animals.
45. RayT
Quoting 7. AZTrojan:

This article drips with irony considering the source. A 300 year drought is not considered climate change? Who's being blind here to the fact that climate change is a part of nature and is not something man has brought about?


Who is to say it cant be both.

I'm sure some of the change is as a result of natural, but some could easily be created by man.

There are probably also a number of other things affecting weather that we arent even aware of as well. (some manmade, some not)

An interesting list from Dr. Masters. Even though I wouldn't have included Syria because 1) civil war followed onset of drought by more than a decade; 2) other countries in the region have not been simultaneously destabilized; 3) sectional tensions were present before the drought; 4) Arab Spring didn't originate in the Levant; 5) many of the combatants are not from drought area.

It should be also noted that drought can create civilizations. Like the 5.9ky event, when Sahara became a desert, causing people to pack into the Nile valley and creating a need for complex society.

And finally, the modern situation differs from all before it. Now, anthropogenic climate change can cause decreases in precipitation, and anthropogenic forcings are greater than the natural ones. We have also somewhat advanced models to predict those changes. So, we can adapt in advance to future droughts, at least to their increasing frequency (in those places where it increases). In shorter timescale, like a few years' drought that is a result of variability rather than AGW, food can be shipped from another part of the world to the drought-stricken area.
My family and I took a summer road trip to the Southwest when I was in high school with stops at the Grand Canyon, Great Sand Dunes National Park, Four Corners and the Mesa Verde National Park. I have almost the exact same picture as the one used for Collapse #7, plus many others from my trip there. I remember how cool of a place it was and wondering what would cause the people living there to just up and leave everything behind. A severe drought causing water sources and crops to dry up would definitely do it. What kind of ruins will we leave behind when our homes become inhospitable due to the harsher climate?
Quoting 39. Patrap:



I will forward this to "R" Lamar Smith within the Hour, thanks.








Link to actual statement by Smith

The crux of his argument seems to rest on one particular satellite dataset ...

"However, a prominent satellite data set from the University of Alabama at Huntsville
showed that 2015 was only the 3rd warmest year on record and another widely used
satellite dataset (RSS) showed that 2015 was only the 4th warmest on record, contrary
to NOAA’s claims. The truth is that neither 2014 nor 2015 were the hottest year on
record. Satellite data, which NOAA had access to, clearly refutes NOAA’s claims."

...He says he doesn't want to fund $190 million towards Climate-related research (~3% of budget request) when it should go towards weather related research. Does not seem to support any cross-tabulation with any university (Satelitte-records or not) or other government organizations (NASA? UN? UK Met Office?).

Basically he's sticking his head out of the sand to support his political $ contributors.
Quoting 39. Patrap:



I will forward this to "R" Lamar Smith within the Hour, thanks.


The ignorance of this country's leadership is stupefying. People like Smith and that troglodyte from Oklahoma, Inhoffe, aren't qualified to watch a cloud pass, yet they occupy some of the most important scientific offices in the land.
50. RayT
Speaking of Drought.... Here is the most serious one in the USA at this point in time. Bad as it is, it is better in many areas than it was this time last week.

Link

I don't understand how people with any sort of intelligence can deny that the climate is changing. Whether or not it is human-induced the science and temperature records alone should prove that beyond a doubt but people still deny it. Good lord. Also, why shouldn't we use renewable energy? It is only has a positive impact for both economics and the environment. Can someone give me a reason not to use renewables in situations where they would produce the same energy to run it as a fossil fuel? I'm not being facetious. Just trying to find out where people with opposing viewpoints stand so a rational conversation could be held.
Quoting 30. Patrap:

If we cut the US defense Budget by 10% annually, we could feed every Home in America and send their children to college for free.

Let dat one roll around ones insides a tad.

War and burning fossil fuels to run a Planet with a Main Sequence Yellow Star only 93,000,000 miles away is stupid.

Easily




Adam Cropp - He works for the National Geographic and he has a campaign called "World Without War." I listen to a lot of his documentaries and talks. Link



USA PROJECTS
$1,677,134,127,122
Total Cost of Wars Since 2001
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $8,362,785 for Total Cost of Wars Since 2001.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$819,307,060,259
Cost of War in Iraq
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $117,035 for Cost of War in Iraq.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$731,363,297,180
Cost of War in Afghanistan
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $4,004,466 for Cost of War in Afghanistan.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$9,074,650,404
Nuclear Weapons in 2016
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $2,191,256 for Nuclear Weapons in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$8,786,220,685
Cost of Military Action Against ISIS
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $615,482 for Cost of Military Action Against ISIS.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

There are much more productive things we could be spending this on:
$12,210,326,830
Environment in 2016
Every hour federal taxpayers in the United States pay $2,948,429 toward Environment in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$48,210,494,652
Education in 2016
Every hour federal taxpayers in the United States pay $11,641,393 toward Education in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$20,154,417,609
Housing Assistance in 2016
Every hour federal taxpayers in the United States pay $4,866,689 toward Housing Assistance in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$12,119,806,628
Foreign Aid in 2016
Every hour federal taxpayers in the United States pay $2,926,571 toward Foreign Aid in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/
Quoting 52. Sfloridacat5:



Adam Cropp - Works for National Geographic has a campaign called "World Without War." I listen to a lot of his documentaries and talks.



USA PROJECTS
$1,677,134,127,122
Total Cost of Wars Since 2001
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $8,362,785 for Total Cost of Wars Since 2001.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$819,307,060,259
Cost of War in Iraq
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $117,035 for Cost of War in Iraq.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$731,363,297,180
Cost of War in Afghanistan
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $4,004,466 for Cost of War in Afghanistan.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$9,074,650,404
Nuclear Weapons in 2016
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $2,191,256 for Nuclear Weapons in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$8,786,220,685
Cost of Military Action Against ISIS
Every hour taxpayers in the United States are paying $615,482 for Cost of Military Action Against ISIS.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

There are much more productive things we could be spending this on:
$12,210,326,830
Environment in 2016
Every hour federal taxpayers in the United States pay $2,948,429 toward Environment in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$48,210,494,652
Education in 2016
Every hour federal taxpayers in the United States pay $11,641,393 toward Education in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$20,154,417,609
Housing Assistance in 2016
Every hour federal taxpayers in the United States pay $4,866,689 toward Housing Assistance in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/

$12,119,806,628
Foreign Aid in 2016
Every hour federal taxpayers in the United States pay $2,926,571 toward Foreign Aid in 2016.

See more counters at https://www.nationalpriorities.org/cost-of/


That is extremely depressing...
Good points also being made on how man has adapted and migrated to greener pastures during past droughts as well; the Dust Bowl migration in the US is a good example but again, the US was/is large enough to accommodate a relatively small population shift to California where many of the farmers from the Bowl region migrated West to.

Looks like Southern California is up on deck this time (both in terms of agriculture and water) if conditions do not improve in that region over the next several years and we are looking at a more persistent and long-term drought for that specific region:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

55. RayT
Quoting 51. 757surfer:

I don't understand how people with any sort of intelligence can deny that the climate is changing. Whether or not it is human-induced the science and temperature records alone should prove that beyond a doubt but people still deny it. Good lord. Also, why shouldn't we use renewable energy? It is only has a positive impact for both economics and the environment. Can someone give me a reason not to use renewables in situations where they would produce the same energy to run it as a fossil fuel? I'm not being facetious. Just trying to find out where people with opposing viewpoints stand so a rational conversation could be held.


I acknowledge and agree that climate change is a reality in todays world. Its quite apparent up here in Canada.

In many parts of Northern canada, the winter was so mild that nobody alive can think of a winter that even remotely compared to what we experienced this year.

That being said, I rely on fossil fuels for everything I do. I do use solar powered Calculators, but that's about it in terms of renewable energy.
Quoting 42. gr8lakebreeze:

I know, 360 hrs and all, but gosh, noooo!


It could be true..SSW event was longer than usual this winter due to a powerful polar vort, even with record warming and WAVz...That much lag time would cause a late Arctic event.
Well, this is interesting... From the article posted at comment 39 referencing Lamar Smith's position. When he asked for internal communications from NOAA...

"Rep. Smith insisted that the authors fudged the data and subpoenaed NOAA, demanding that all internal communication between the study's authors be turned over to his committee for examination. Sullivan has since refused, citing the importance of scientific autonomy. "

Two things:
Sunshine? Seems like the requested internal NOAA communication is public information governed by the Sunshine Act/Doctrine - whatever it is formally called. Seems like releasing these communications would not only satisfy budget concerns but would also put an end to Rep Smith's allegations, as long as the data is good and there's no evidence otherwise.

Poor journalism. Some of the words in that article are judgmental, belie the author's own sentiment, and create an image in the reader's head intended to sway opinion (e.g. "demanding" and "insisted" instead of "asking" and "held that." This is biased reporting.

Wonder what caused the head of NOAA, Kathryn Sullivan to balk at releasing the requested info.

Go ahead, bash me if you will, but I am always going to question something that does not make sense. This refusal to release information makes no sense. Maybe this is a personal vendetta for both, or politically motivated. Still, when you want money from a budgetary committee in Congress, seems prudent to provide, not hide, information a committee chairman/member asks for - no matter if you head NOAA or HUD or any government agency.

(Punctuation edit)
Well, one thing is a fact is that when the Oil and coal runs out, the damage will have been done. If we burn what is left in the ground oil and gas and coal wise.

The Earth will suffer the effects for 5-10,000 years after.

The last time the Earths Avg Temp rose 5-7C, it took 12,500 years.

We're on a pace to do it in less than 400 with almost 200 of those years behind us.

Fascinating ignorance and willful at that.

Quoting 46. elioe:

An interesting list from Dr. Masters. Even though I wouldn't have included Syria because 1) civil war followed onset of drought by more than a decade; 2) other countries in the region have not been simultaneously destabilized; 3) sectional tensions were present before the drought; 4) Arab Spring didn't originate in the Levant; 5) many of the combatants are not from drought area.

It should be also noted that drought can create civilizations. Like the 5.9ky event, when Sahara became a desert, causing people to pack into the Nile valley and creating a need for complex society.

And finally, the modern situation differs from all before it. Now, anthropogenic climate change can cause decreases in precipitation, and anthropogenic forcings are greater than the natural ones. We have also somewhat advanced models to predict those changes. So, we can adapt in advance to future droughts, at least to their increasing frequency (in those places where it increases). In shorter timescale, like a few years' drought that is a result of variability rather than AGW, food can be shipped from another part of the world to the drought-stricken area.


Ricky Rood is just back from a symposium on climate change in the Middle East. He's posted some additional perspective on the Syrian drought and conflict:

Ineffective Resolution: Middle East and Climate Change
48. CraigsIsland
5:16 PM GMT on March 21, 2016


Thanks for posting
the link to Rep Lamar Smith's March 16, 2016 actual (and written) statement.
Quoting 41. nymore:



I don't go to work and give up many family opportunities to feed people or put them through college. If you are handicapped (such as paralysed or very low iq) I am more than happy to help support. On the other hand if you are lazy or make poor decisions or don't want to do what you have to do because you have to move or be gone from family and friends for long stretches to bad you are on your own.

If you want to go to college pay for it, example when I grew up 1 out of 4 kids in our own family went to college because it was all we could afford. The other 3 of us just kept on working

Maybe life isn't fair so what nothing is.


I will not speak for Patrap, but I will speak for myself. The only way that a prosperous nation will be able to continue to prosper going forward is for its citizens to be healthy and educated. Denying these realities does not allow us to escape them. How to pay for this must be decided by the society that we live in, but failure to pay for this will have greater costs associated with it going forward as a nation. As an aside, no one suggests that help should be given to those that do not want help, or would squander it, but each deserves the chance to succeed. You may resent these thoughts, but you cannot change these realities.
Quoting 41. nymore:



I don't go to work and give up many family opportunities to feed people or put them through college. If you are handicapped (such as paralysed or very low iq) I am more than happy to help support. On the other hand if you are lazy or make poor decisions or don't want to do what you have to do because you have to move or be gone from family and friends for long stretches to bad you are on your own.

If you want to go to college pay for it, example when I grew up 1 out of 4 kids in our own family went to college because it was all we could afford. The other 3 of us just kept on working

Maybe life isn't fair so what nothing is.


I prefer to have a society where people have access to higher education even if they chose not to use it or may be more apt to go with more traditional vocational trades. Deeming some "lazy" is a harsh overgeneralization that fails to account for very real social inequalities and disadvantages built into the American system. College is not affordable for a great deal of students at the moment. The average student graduates a with a 4 year degree with a debt just under $30,000. It is no longer possible to pay for college by saving up or by working your way through college unless you are one of the privileged who gets funding through an institution. Debt hinders the purchasing power of college graduates thereby directly effecting the economic well being of society. While you personally have not had those opportunities, I for one, hope the next generations have better access and ability to get a higher education or the vocational skills than my generation or previous ones. Life is most certainly not fair, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't strive to close the gaps where we can. After all, a higher educated society is better for everyone involved, less debt means more purchasing power, and any expenditure to achieve those goals should be understood as an investment in human capital for the good of all. Again, a small price I am happy to pay.
   thanks for the interesting Post Dr. Masters...
What a great post! Of and on over the years I have read up on history (great side hobby of mine) and is becoming the most often cited downfall of Older Civilizations.

Today we can work around this to a degree, but that depends on our ability to mobilize against the drought with food and water. Its very hard to do when wars spring up over it however.

I can imagine if we had a good 10 years without conflict, we could actually make headway on many fronts to address these issues. We may not be able to easily fix droughts but can put stuff in place to mitigate some of the hardships that arise from it.
Quoting 53. 757surfer:



That is extremely depressing...


Yes, very crazy.

From Adam's site. Link Go to projects - World Without War

WORLDWIDE PROJECTS
The world currently spends $1770 billion annually on their militaries.

What if we reduced that by half%u2026

We would suddenly have $885 billion to spend on more productive things for humanity.

Check out some of our suggestions on how this money could be better spent below:

Option A: Hyperloop Transport

Option B: Reverse Deforestation

Option C: Electric Car Revolution

Option D: Space Exploration

Option E: Convert Fossil Fuel Electricity Production To Renewables

Option F: Eliminate World Hunger
Quoting 57. Barefootontherocks:

Well, this is interesting... From the article posted at comment 39 referencing Lamar Smith's position. When he asked for internal communications from NOAA...

"Rep. Smith insisted that the authors fudged the data and subpoenaed NOAA, demanding that all internal communication between the study's authors be turned over to his committee for examination. Sullivan has since refused, citing the importance of scientific autonomy. "

Two things:
Sunshine? Seems like the requested internal NOAA communication is public information governed by the Sunshine Act/Doctrine - whatever it is formally called. Seems like releasing these communications would not only satisfy budget concerns but would also put an end to Rep Smith's allegations, as long as the data is good and there's no evidence otherwise.

Poor journalism. Some of the words in that article are judgmental, belie the author's own sentiment, and create an image in the reader's head intended to sway opinion (e.g. "demanding" and "insisted" instead of "asking" and "held that." This is biased reporting.

Wonder what caused the head of NOAA, Kathryn Sullivan to balk at releasing the requested info.

Go ahead, bash me if you will, but I am always going to question something that does not make sense. This refusal to release information makes no sense. Maybe this is a personal vendetta for both, or politically motivated. Still, when you want money from a budgetary committee in Congress, seems prudent to provide, not hide, information a committee chairman/member asks for - no matter if you head NOAA or HUD or any government agency.

(Punctuation edit)


First each state has different laws re: Sunshine doctrine. Within those laws, the state can define what exactly is public and what is exempted. Scientific papers have long been judged within the bounds of peer review by other scientists to build of off, challenge, and critique. The notion that a government official can go on a fishing expedition in effort to disparage scientific research and challenge the academic process is fundamentally wrong. The refusal is based on the fact that the request is overly broad, based on false information, would require an obscene amount of time and man power to fulfill, and would require a violation of longly held norms of scientific research. Sullivan has provided material time and again to attempt to get Smith to understand what it is that is happening here with no success. That is a failing of Smith's crusade.

Quoting 60. Barefootontherocks:

48. CraigsIsland
5:16 PM GMT on March 21, 2016


Thanks for posting
the link to Rep Lamar Smith's March 16, 2016 actual (and written) statement.


This statement is full of half truths, lies, and misrepresentations. Scientist's whose work Smith touts (i.e. the new work in Nature) have written statements to him saying he is misrepresenting the findings. Smith is not a scientist, not a objective reviewer, and a known climate change denier. The implication you put forth that if NOAA had nothing to hide they would just comply is an often used and incorrect argument based on the old saying "If you have nothing to hide, you ave nothing to fear". Scientists have plenty to fear by complying with such a broad request not supported by any evidence which seeks to undermine the scientific process by ideologically driven individuals. It is an overreach of the powers of subpoena granted to the chair, and an overreach of diligence especially since Smith, a layman, has been briefed multiple times on the science itself.

I do find it interesting that given the nature and obvious scope and implications stated in Smith's request, his sources of funding, and the knowledge generated about the nature of weather and climate over the years that you would sit here and defend his witch hunt.
Can't fit it into an exact weather quote per se but related to the education issue. One of the best quotes on this issue was from Plato, and I am paraphrasing, but along the following lines; Anyone who has ever contemplated the issue of governance of mankind has surely come to realize that the fate of empires has often depended upon the education of their youth..................... And the related quote (I do not remember the author) that: If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.

We need to do a better job of educating our children in America, across the board in cities, rural communities, and everywhere in between including in poorer regions, so that they can better understand what is happening in the world and better yet, so they understand when someone in government, or in politics, is trying to pull the wool over their eyes.

However, NOAA has a good program where they have an outreach program to many colleges where their scientists visit and try to recruit (and go to job fairs) to encourage many of the STEM programs kids to consider a career with them.
Lamar Smith is a idiot shill for the Energy Lobby.

He has ZERO interest in the truth and only wants to defund Climate Science et al.

Like the Crazy Pols in Australia just did, and the irony in that is they are now experiencing a HISTORIC warm fall there.

The Woman who heads NOAA, Kathryn Sullivan is beyond reproach as a US Citizen and former NASA Astronaut.

Here is the link to the Noaa outreach programs across the Country:

http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/outreach/events.html

Quoting 3. wunderkidcayman:

Cool

Hey Doc when are we gonna see you do update on current ENSO and forecast as well as maybe a sneek peek into what we may see for Atlantic Hurricane season 2016 (NOT your forecast I know that don't come around until April-May-June timeframe but just a quick peek into what we might see unofficially I guess you can call it)


Stay tuned--we have an ENSO post coming in the next few days!
Quoting 3. wunderkidcayman:

Cool

Hey Doc when are we gonna see you do update on current ENSO and forecast as well as maybe a sneek peek into what we may see for Atlantic Hurricane season 2016 (NOT your forecast I know that don't come around until April-May-June timeframe but just a quick peek into what we might see unofficially I guess you can call it)


A bit anxious for a hurricane aren't you?
Dr. Michael Mann just posted this on FB.

Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists

February 2016 was likely the hottest month in thousands of years, as we approach the 2°C danger limit.



“Stunning,” “wow,” “shocker,” “bombshell,” “astronomical,” “insane,” “unprecedented”– these are some of the words climate scientists have used to describe the record-shattering global surface temperatures in February 2016.



It’s difficult to see any ‘pause’ or slowdown in the global warming over the past 50 years.

To put the current temperatures into context, prior to last October, monthly global surface temperatures had not been more than 0.96°C hotter than the 1951–1980 average, according to Nasa. The past 5 months have been 1.06°C, 1.03°C, 1.10°C, 1.14°C, and 1.35°C hotter than that average, absolutely destroying previous records. Estimates from Noaa are in broad agreement with those from Nasa.

Right now, the Earth’s average surface temperature is hotter than it’s been in thousands of years; potentially even longer.

How much of a role is El Niño playing?

We’re currently at the peak of a very strong El Niño event, which has brought warm water up to the ocean surface. That’s certainly played a major role in the current record-breaking temperatures. The hottest years are almost invariably years with El Niño events, although 2014 was the first year in decades to set a temperature record without an El Niño.

For comparison, the current El Niño event is very similar to a previous one in 1997–1998. That event made 1998 by far the hottest year on record at the time, and it’s why contrarians often cherry pick temperatures over the past 18 years – the abnormally hot 1998 was 18 years ago.

However, the past 6 months have been 0.43°C hotter than the corresponding months in 1997–1998. So clearly, while El Niño is a big contributor to the current record-shattering temperatures, human-caused global warming is playing a major role as well. Climate scientist Michael Mann attributed the record to approximately 50% human influences, and 50% a combination of El Niño and natural weather fluctuations.

Are temperatures approaching dangerous levels?

Last December, 195 countries signed the COP21 international climate agreement in Paris. Graham Readfearn summarized the agreement for The Guardian:

The guts of the agreement hang off the so-called “long-term goal” that commits almost 200 countries to hold the global average temperature to “well below 2°C” above pre-industrial levels and to “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.

Depending on how exactly we define “pre-industrial,” February temperatures were between 1.5 and 2°C hotter than those in pre-industrial times. So, we’re already starting to tread on thin ice, in the range that the global community has deemed dangerously hot.
However, since we’re at the peak of an El Niño, as they did after 1998, global surface temperatures will temporarily go back down once this event is over. That is, until human-caused global warming pushes them up to and beyond these temperatures once again in the near future. As climate scientists Steve Sherwood and Stefan Rahmstorf wrote,

This is the true climate emergency: it is getting more difficult with each passing year for humanity to prevent temperatures from rising above 2℃. February should remind us how pressing the situation is.

A glimpse at the consequences of global warming

In the meantime, we’re getting a glimpse at the future climate consequences of our carbon pollution. Just to name a few, Africa is being battered by heat and drought, with more than 36 million people facing hunger across the southern and eastern parts of the continent as a result. Droughts in Vietnam and Zimbabwe have cost these countries 4% and 12% of their GDP, respectively. Arctic ice is in poor shape as a result of the region’s warmest-recorded winter. Australia has been breaking heat records as well, with 39 consecutive days in Sydney above 26℃ (double the previous record). And a massive coral bleaching event appears likely on the Great Barrier Reef.



These are some of the reasons why temperatures 1.5–2°C above pre-industrial levels are considered dangerous. This intense heat is not good for agriculture, ice, sea levels, or coral reefs. There’s still time for us to prevent such high temperatures from becoming the norm, but that time is running out.

Fortunately there’s been some good news that we may be on the verge of getting carbon pollution and global warming under control, but we have to continue with this progress and avoid reversing it. People seem to be grasping the problem just in time: a record number of Americans (41%) now see global warming as a threat, and almost two-thirds realize that humans are responsible. California is providing a blueprint for solving the problem, as the state’s carbon pollution has fallen despite a growing population, as its economy has thrived.

We’re capable of solving the climate problem, but with temperatures already approaching dangerous thresholds, the time to act is now.

One from auburn(MOD) I grabbed off of FB.


Now for a great Monday NOLA classic, Red Beans and rice with smoked sausage and a Barq's Root Beer.



Quoting 19. Grothar:

One of the best blogs ever. Very interesting reading. It brings back a lot of memories. I've often wondered how a country, who has never really known hunger, would react when they come to the realization that their food doesn't come from the supermarket. Good job, Doc.
But Gro, I was just at the supermarket buying food, where should I go to buy it now? Should I go fishing and catch it, or go hunting and kill it, I like hunting and fishing, but the supermarket is a lot easier, but not nearly as much fun.
Quoting 27. 62901IL:


Resistance is Futile.
Only on this small blog.
Quoting 55. RayT:



I acknowledge and agree that climate change is a reality in todays world. Its quite apparent up here in Canada.

In many parts of Northern canada, the winter was so mild that nobody alive can think of a winter that even remotely compared to what we experienced this year.

That being said, I rely on fossil fuels for everything I do. I do use solar powered Calculators, but that's about it in terms of renewable energy.
One more thing, until they find a renewable energy source that can produce all the other thing that fossil fuels produce, then their is really only a small market for renewable fuels, like solar, wind, and hydro. For electrical we could use solar and nuclear, until our technology can find a substitute for fossil fuels, that produce almost everything else we use.
Quoting 51. 757surfer:

I don't understand how people with any sort of intelligence can deny that the climate is changing. Whether or not it is human-induced the science and temperature records alone should prove that beyond a doubt but people still deny it. Good lord. Also, why shouldn't we use renewable energy? It is only has a positive impact for both economics and the environment. Can someone give me a reason not to use renewables in situations where they would produce the same energy to run it as a fossil fuel? I'm not being facetious. Just trying to find out where people with opposing viewpoints stand so a rational conversation could be held.


Good comments. One of the main obstacles is the power of the coal lobby in the United States. The other seems to be the intransigence with regards to high-speed rail development. Yet another is the cost/viability of electric vehicles.
78. bwi
Quoting 19. Grothar:

One of the best blogs ever. Very interesting reading. It brings back a lot of memories. I've often wondered how a country, who has never really known hunger, would react when they come to the realization that their food doesn't come from the supermarket. Good job, Doc.


Grothar, great comment. PS. We knew you were pretty old, but impressive that you can remember the Akkadian Empire as well! I'm only just old enough to remember the Ming dynasty.
Quoting 77. slavicthunder:



Good comments. One of the main obstacles is the power of the coal lobby in the United States. The other seems to be the intransigence with regards to high-speed rail development. Yet another is the cost/viability of electric vehicles.
Do all these electric cars and high speed trains use, plastics or anything else produced by fossil fuels? If so these things will help, but we still need oil until our technology catches up, and we can produce plastics and every other product produced by oil.
Quoting 76. NativeSun:

One more thing, until they find a renewable energy source that can produce all the other thing that fossil fuels produce, then their is really only a small market for renewable fuels, like solar, wind, and hydro. For electrical we could use solar and nuclear, until our technology can find a substitute for fossil fuels, that produce almost everything else we use.


"In the United States, plastics are not made from crude oil. They are manufactured from hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) and natural gas. HGL are byproducts of petroleum refining and natural gas processing. These liquids are used as feedstocks by petrochemical manufacturers to make plastic and are used as fuels in the manufacturing process.

In 20101, about 191 million barrels of HGL were used in the United States to make plastic products in the plastic materials and resins industry, which was equal to about 2.7% of total U.S. petroleum consumption. Of those 191 million barrels, 190 million barrels were used as feedstock and 1 million barrels were consumed as fuel to manufacture these products.

In addition to HGL, about 412 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas were used to make plastic materials and resins in 2010. This was equal to about 1.7% of total U.S. natural gas consumption. Of the 412 Bcf of natural gas, 13 Bcf were used as feedstock, and 399 Bcf were consumed as fuel to manufacture these products.

In addition to HGL and natural gas, about 65 billion kilowatthours of electricity were used to manufacture plastics in 2010, equal to about 1.7% of total U.S. electricity consumption." Link

Limiting fossil fuels use to creating products would be an incredible reduction.


SoCal drought is worse than it was 3 months ago. More Fog again this morning, cool day here, 61.4F now(12:04PDT)
Well after a warm almost hot 88 on Friday last week, was mowing the yard with a shirt off to get a spring tan for summer, front blew in putting us down to 37 this morning. Went from AC to heater in the house in 24 hrs.
Ha! I used the wrong terminology at 57 and acknowledged that I might not have the name right.
Official webpage about the U.S. Federal Freedom of Information Act

So Naga,
Seems to me this is a reasonable request and one that might serve to bring Rep. Smith to his knees. The rest of the committee is silent, save for the Democrat acting as spokesman from the other side of the aisle. I don't get your or Ms. Sullivan's objection. Presuming she's an appointee, she'd likely be out anyway if Mr. Trump gets elected this fall. Her objection may be an attempt to hold off revealing this info until the presidential election is on the books. A political motivation on her part? Might you be afraid of what the emails would show? Seems like you and others would support this documentation that could quiet Rep Smith. If Lamar Smith is as off base as some here seem to think, let's see what he's asking for. You know, the possibility exists he could become a convert to science.

Violate scientific what? If these were not U.S government employed scientists, I'd probably agree with you. But they are. Let's see what the emails say!

Others who post not-so-subtle "denier" words:
Who's denying what? Only denial going in this political situation is Ms. Sullivan's denying information to the Congressional committee that funds an agency (NOAA) that spends a lot of talent and money on climate change data gathering and assimilation.

We as citizens are entitled to the information. Let's not avoid a process that could put the questioning to rest. Until/unless it changes, the U.S. system of government.. of the people, by the people, and for the people.
Quoting 79. NativeSun:

Do all these electric cars and high speed trains use, plastics or anything else produced by fossil fuels? If so these things will help, but we still need oil until our technology catches up, and we can produce plastics and every other product produced by oil.


Would be nice, seems the industry wants to have updates for every single thing that exists every month, like an update for your apps, windows updates on computers, etc... seems to be all about money in the technology industry too. Thinking and working on small technology too much, need technology that helps with the environment and BIG things on a global scale
Extremely Critical Fire Weather Conditions Tomorrow!



ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 211905

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2016

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
SWRN/CNTRL/NERN NM...WRN OK AND NWRN TX PANHANDLES...FAR SERN AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN AZ...NM...ERN
CO...WEST TX...WRN OK...KS...

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST AZ...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM...AND THE
WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLES...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN UPGRADE TO AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK HAS BEEN MADE
FOR PARTS OF FAR SERN AZ...SWRN/CNTRL/NERN NM...AND THE WRN OK AND
NWRN TX PANHANDLES...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30-35 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE DIGIT RH
VALUES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN
HIGHLIGHTING A CORRIDOR OF VERY STRONG W-SWLY LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
/CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT AT 700 MB/ OVERSPREADING MUCH OF NM INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. VERY DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR
COINCIDENT WITH A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LEE SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

LATEST FUEL INFORMATION SUGGESTS DRY ONE-HOUR AND TEN-HOUR
FUELS...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...LOW RH
VALUES...AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
LIKELY IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK
AREA...INCLUDING PARTS OF NERN AZ AND NWRN NM...SOUTHEAST NM...AND
THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION AND SOUTH PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...CONCERNS REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN INTO CNTRL OK AND ERN
KS AND THE SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON MIN RH VALUES STILL EXIST...AND THE
ERN DELINEATION OF THE CRITICAL RISK ACROSS THESE AREAS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED. NEVERTHELESS...VERY STRONG SLY WINDS /25-35 MPH/
WILL MATERIALIZE OUTSIDE THE CRITICAL RISK AREA...SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...EASTERN KY...SOUTHWEST WV...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST
REGION AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO 15 MPH TO LOCALLY 20 MPH. WITH ANY
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING WELL W OF THE REGION...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 60S F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
MID-UPPER 20S MIN RH VALUES. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS SITUATED
WITHIN A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.
Quoting 61. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I will not speak for Patrap, but I will speak for myself. The only way that a prosperous nation will be able to continue to prosper going forward is for its citizens to be healthy and educated. Denying these realities does not allow us to escape them. How to pay for this must be decided by the society that we live in, but failure to pay for this will have greater costs associated with it going forward as a nation. As an aside, no one suggests that help should be given to those that do not want help, or would squander it, but each deserves the chance to succeed. You may resent these thoughts, but you cannot change these realities.


I am all for a healthy and educated population, don't get me wrong. The reality is there is x amount of cash to spend, it is how we spend (waste it) it that is the problem. I say let the outside of the gov't bean counters free to audit every dept of the federal gov't. When waste or incompetence or duplicate functions are found simply fire those involved. Now I know many people are going to lose jobs but so be it.

We spend more per student through college than any other nation, we pay more for drugs than any other country even though we are possibly the biggest customer. We pay doctors far far more than other countries. We pay more in military waste than other countries pay for their military. I could go on and on and on

Lets just start here and watch the heads roll and the money suddenly show up.

FWIW I always take your posts seriously since your opinions are well thought out unlike many here.
Quoting 83. Barefootontherocks:

Ha! I used the wrong terminology at 57 and acknowledged that I might not have the name right.
Official webpage about the U.S. Federal Freedom of Information Act

So Naga,
Seems to me this is a reasonable request and one that might serve to bring Rep. Smith to his knees. The rest of the committee is silent, save for the Democrat acting as spokesman from the other side of the aisle. I don't get your or Ms. Sullivan's objection. Presuming she's an appointee, she'd likely be out anyway if Mr. Trump gets elected this fall. Her objection may be an attempt to hold off revealing this info until the presidential election is on the books. A political motivation on her part? Might you be afraid of what the emails would show? Seems like you and others would support this documentation that could quiet Rep Smith. If Lamar Smith is as off base as some here seem to think, let's see what he's asking for. You know, the possibility exists he could become a convert to science.

Violate scientific what? If these were not U.S government employed scientists, I'd probably agree with you. But they are. Let's see what the emails say!

Others who post not-so-subtle "denier" words:
Who's denying what? Only denial going in this political situation is Ms. Sullivan's denying information to the Congressional committee that funds an agency (NOAA) that spends a lot of talent and money on climate change data gathering and assimilation.

We as citizens are entitled to the information. Let's not avoid a process that could put the questioning to rest. Until/unless it changes, the U.S. system of government.. of the people, by the people, and for the people.


You are missing the point entirely, the research data is already publicly available along with the methodology. Again, you assert the "if you have nothing to hide" argument, entirely misunderstanding the implications of such broad overreach of the subpoena standard. Smith wants every email with the terms temperature, climate, and change. The scope is unreasonable and it is a clear abuse of the subpoena that was granted to him last January. A completely unprecedented use of governmental power never before seen. By the way, that other person on the committee is the ranking member, not just some other providing a dissent "from the other side of the aisle" And again, you defend it's use.

I will not post the entirety of the various analysis of what is wrong with Smith's request, but I will provide some insight on to what has happened already:

". He took an ax to NASA’s Earth science budget (because NASA builds satellites to monitor climate change). He wrote an embarrassingly wrong op-ed in the Washington Post denying global warming. He issued a subpoena to NOAA chief Kathryn Sullivan (a scientist and former NASA astronaut), trying to strong-arm her and her agency into releasing a huge amount of information about scientists and their methodologies for analyzing climate data. He accused these scientists of altering data to suit their “climate change agenda” (shocker: No, they’re not). When Dr. Sullivan refused to comply, he made more nonsensical statements about warming.

And there we stood for a while, but now Smith has ramped up the pressure again. In a new letter he sent to Dr. Sullivan, he has widened his search considerably. He is now demanding that she hand over emails from NOAA scientists that have keywords in them like—and I wish I were making this up—temperature, climate, and change. Yes, seriously. He might as well ask for ones containing the and and.
To be clear: He’s asking for essentially every single email ever sent by any climate research scientist at NOAA." Link

Smith's intentions are clear, his science denial is on record. There's that word again and Smith plays the role to a T.

And here is a timeline of events from Columbia's law blog:

"Rep. Smith himself has been critical of evidence supporting man-made climate change, and he once suggested that climate scientists colluded “to hide contradictory temperature data.”[3] In a July 14, 2015 letter to NOAA, he claimed the new study was “in direct disagreement” with previous studies, and he stated that “[w]hen corrections to scientific data are made, the quality of the analysis and decision-making is brought into question. The conclusions brought forth in this new study have lasting impacts and provide the basis for further action through regulations.” He requested copies of all data “related to this study and the updated global datasets, including the methods of analysis used to adjust data”; all documents and communications relating to the data corrections (over an eighteen month period); and all information related to NOAA’s plans to make the data public.[4]

NOAA responded by “pointing him to the relevant data and methods, all of which had already been publicly available” but it declined to provide any internal communications. [5] Rep. Smith sent two additional letters in September, seeking additional data and reiterating his desire for internal communications. NOAA provided more data and information about the study, including in-person briefings to explain the science.[6] However, it never produced the internal communications Rep. Smith wanted.

On October 13, Rep. Smith issued a subpoena to NOAA seeking the internal communications. (New rules passed this January allow chairs on some House committees – including the House Science Committee – to issue subpoenas unilaterally.[7]) The subpoena claimed that the internal “documents and communications are central to the Committee’s oversight of NOAA’s decision to readjust historical temperature records. . . . NOAA’s decision to readjust historical temperature records has broad national implications.”[8]

The ranking minority member on the House Science Committee, Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX), responded to Rep. Smith’s subpoena with a pointed letter on October 23, in which she described the subpoena as “furthering a fishing expedition.”[9] Rep. Johnson wrote that “NOAA, rightfully, has been reluctant to waste their time and resources, not to mention break confidence with their superb research scientists by responding” to requests for internal communications. She quoted the Washington Post to say that “[a]cademics must feel comfortable sharing research, disagreeing with colleagues and proposing conclusions – not all of which will be correct – without fear that those who dislike their findings will conduct invasive fishing expeditions in search of a pretext to defend them.” Rep. Johnson stated it was “an inquiry that seems more designed to harass climate scientists than to further any legitimate legislative purpose. This is a serious misuse of Congressional oversight powers.”[10]

Dr. Benjamin Santer, a climate scientist at the federal Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, took the “fishing” comparison a step further and said this “is not a fishing expedition – this is a trawling expedition.” He expanded that “I don’t think this is the kind of issue a congressional staffer with little or no scientific training can adjudicate on.” Instead, he said the subpoena is “looking for an unfortunate phrasing in emails to cast doubt on an entire scientific endeavor.”[11]

NOAA itself responded to the subpoena on October 27 with a letter citing numerous briefings, datasets, studies, and other information it gave the committee over the past few months, and provided additional background information, but it again declined to turn over any emails or other deliberative communications.[12] In a separate statement, NOAA said that “the confidentiality of these communications among scientists is essential to frank discourse” and it “is a long-standing practice in the scientific community to protect the confidentiality of deliberative scientific discourse.”[13]

Rep. Smith countered with a statement claiming it was “suspicious” that NOAA “alters data to get the politically correct results they want and then refuses to reveal how those decisions were made. NOAA needs to come clean about why they altered the data to get the results they needed to advance this administration’s extreme climate change agenda.” Rep. Smith claimed NOAA “has yet to identify any legal basis for withholding these documents” and stated that the “Committee intends to use all tools at its disposal to undertake its Constitutionally-mandated oversight responsibilities.” Link

We see what happened the last time emails were cherry picked for out of context information re: Climategate. By the way, after massive investigations by multiple agencies, no wrong doing was found, yet the myth of Climategate lives on in public opinion being a major influence on science rejection.

Smith is wrong, plain and simple. He has overstepped his bounds, and if precedent shows anything, it is that subpoenas of this type are routinely struck down as in the Mann case which found research emails are proprietary records dealing with scholarly research and therefore exempt. Smith has all the information he needs, he refuses to acknowledge it.
Quoting 62. Naga5000:



I prefer to have a society where people have access to higher education even if they chose not to use it or may be more apt to go with more traditional vocational trades. Deeming some "lazy" is a harsh overgeneralization that fails to account for very real social inequalities and disadvantages built into the American system. College is not affordable for a great deal of students at the moment. The average student graduates a with a 4 year degree with a debt just under $30,000. It is no longer possible to pay for college by saving up or by working your way through college unless you are one of the privileged who gets funding through an institution. Debt hinders the purchasing power of college graduates thereby directly effecting the economic well being of society. While you personally have not had those opportunities, I for one, hope the next generations have better access and ability to get a higher education or the vocational skills than my generation or previous ones. Life is most certainly not fair, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't strive to close the gaps where we can. After all, a higher educated society is better for everyone involved, less debt means more purchasing power, and any expenditure to achieve those goals should be understood as an investment in human capital for the good of all. Again, a small price I am happy to pay.


Here you go pay away

Gifts to the United States Government

How do I make a contribution to the U.S. government?

Citizens who wish to make a general donation to the U.S. government may send contributions to a specific account called "Gifts to the United States." This account was established in 1843 to accept gifts, such as bequests, from individuals wishing to express their patriotism to the United States. Money deposited into this account is for general use by the federal government and can be available for budget needs. These contributions are considered an unconditional gift to the government. Financial gifts can be made by check or money order payable to the United States Treasury and mailed to the address below.

Gifts to the United States
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Credit Accounting Branch
3700 East-West Highway, Room 622D
Hyattsville, MD 20782

Quoting 55. RayT:

I rely on fossil fuels for everything I do. I do use solar powered Calculators, but that's about it in terms of renewable energy.
Hmmm. You haven't stated which power utility serves your area, but Canada gets the majority of its electricity via hydropower, with a lot more of it coming by way of solar and wind. That means, of course, that unless you are completely off the grid, you almost certainly rely on renewables, and heavily.
Quoting 89. nymore:



Here you go pay away

Gifts to the United States Government

How do I make a contribution to the U.S. government?

Citizens who wish to make a general donation to the U.S. government may send contributions to a specific account called "Gifts to the United States." This account was established in 1843 to accept gifts, such as bequests, from individuals wishing to express their patriotism to the United States. Money deposited into this account is for general use by the federal government and can be available for budget needs. These contributions are considered an unconditional gift to the government. Financial gifts can be made by check or money order payable to the United States Treasury and mailed to the address below.

Gifts to the United States
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Credit Accounting Branch
3700 East-West Highway, Room 622D
Hyattsville, MD 20782




Thanks, great response.
Genetically Modified Algae Could Replace Oil for Plastic
Tweaked cyanobacteria can churn out a plastic precursor, potentially replacing fossil fuels.
From polyester shirts, plastic milk jugs and PVC pipes to the production of high-grade industrial ethanol, the contribution of the chemical feedstock ethylene can be found just about everywhere around the globe.
But ethylene’s ubiquity as a building block in plastics and chemicals masks an underlying environmental cost. The cheap hydrocarbon is made using petroleum and natural gas, and the way it is produced emits more carbon dioxide than any other chemical process. As concerns about levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have grown, some scientists have been experimenting with ways to make ethylene production more green. At the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), researchers are finding unexpected success with the help of cyanobacteria, or blue-green algae.
Wow, very substantial and culturally saturated post in the blog entry! Thanks, love it - although I hate droughts!

Despite my promise earlier to cover news of flooding next post, the subject of the blog forced me to collect some more drought news worldwide:

In Latur, Victim Of Drought, The Fear Of Riots Over Water
All India | Reported by Tejas Mehta (with inputs from agencies) | Updated: March 21, 2016 19:18 IST
Groups of people have been banned from gathering near water sources in the Latur district of Maharashtra to prevent riots over water. It's an unprecedented step, but in a region where water tankers arrive only once a week, and water through the taps just once a month, violence over who gets that water is not unfathomable.
"Water is brought from a distance of 35 km and often local politicians have been forcibly diverting water tankers to their areas," said Latur Collector Pandurang Pol. ...


Drought crisis concern for public health
South Africa, Monday 21 March 2016 - 4:55pm
JOHANNESBURG - South Africa is facing its worst drought in two decades. But the drought's impact is also creating a looming public health crisis. While lower income areas tend to be worst affected, the nation as a whole is at risk. "The raw water that goes into any purification plant will be of poorer quality during a drought. The water quality has deteriorated alarmingly over the past year," said Dr Jo Barnes of Stellenbosch University. ...

Ethiopia: Tourism, industrial parks and irrigation schemes can 'reduce drought effects'
Ludovica Iaccino, By Ludovica Iaccino, March 21, 2016 18:20 GMT
At least 10.2 million people are facing starvation in Ethiopia, which has been hit by one of the worst droughts in the past 50 years. ...
However, an Ethiopian official explained to IBTimes UK that, unlike in the 1980s, the country is now stable, has progressed economically and agriculturally and is working to make sure people will not die of starvation. ....


As climate change alters drought patterns, wine growers feel the effects, study finds
PhysOrg, March 21, 2016
In recent years, French vintners have produced a number of exceptional vintages, and Assistant Professor of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology Elizabeth Wolkovich says climate change is part of the reason why. As climate change continues to drive temperatures higher, however, that winning streak could soon come to an end.
By examining more than 500 years of harvest records, Wolkovich and researchers from NASA found winegrape harvests across France, on average, now occur two weeks earlier than in the past, largely due to climate change pushing temperatures higher without the aid of drought. While earlier harvests are normally associated with higher quality wines, researchers caution the trend likely won't last forever. The study is described in a March 21 paper in Nature Climate Change. ...


Research finds water loss from plants a factor in heatwaves
The Daily Examiner, Tim Howard | 21st Mar 2016 2:57 PM
Excerpt: Previously, most climate models assumed all plants trade water for carbon in the exactly same way, ignoring experimental evidence showing considerable variation among plant types. By not accounting for these differences, models have likely over-estimated the amount of water lost to the atmosphere in some regions.
If plants release less water there is more warming and a consequent increase in heat wave intensity.
The study is unique because, for the first time, it used the best available observations to characterise different plants water-use strategies within a global climate model.
"These world-first results will have significant impact on the development of climate models around the world," said one of the study's authors, Prof Andy Pitman, Director of the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science at UNSW. ...


Whole articles, as always, available by using the links.
Quoting 37. Patrap:

JB.

...proving once again He is the Chief Ding-Dong over @ Weatherbong.
How can someone with almost 40 years as a Met not actually realize what is happening...JB was quoted as saying.....

" CO2 cannot cause global warming. I'll tell you why. It doesn't mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot -- it literally cannot cause global warming. --- Joe Bastardi, Fox Business, March 9, 2012. "

Man made C02 continues to increase at a pace not seen in hundreds of thousands of years, and not even half of what we put out there is absorbed..To those who do not know, C02 is deadly to insects animals at even marginal levels, and is of greatest concern because it exerts a larger overall warming influence than all of the other gases combined. It has a long atmospheric lifetime, therefore what we pump into the atmosphere remains for a long period of time.
There's an amusing typo in Collapse #5...

"the 71-metre (234-feet) tall Leshan Giant Bubbha"
Quoting 95. no1der:

There's an amusing typo in Collapse #9...

"the 71-metre (234-feet) tall Leshan Giant Bubbha"
Bubbha the Love Sponge...Bet he could pound da brews....:)
Quoting 57. Barefootontherocks:

Well, this is interesting... From the article posted at comment 39 referencing Lamar Smith's position. When he asked for internal communications from NOAA...

"Rep. Smith insisted that the authors fudged the data and subpoenaed NOAA, demanding that all internal communication between the study's authors be turned over to his committee for examination. Sullivan has since refused, citing the importance of scientific autonomy. "

Two things:
Sunshine? Seems like the requested internal NOAA communication is public information governed by the Sunshine Act/Doctrine - whatever it is formally called. Seems like releasing these communications would not only satisfy budget concerns but would also put an end to Rep Smith's allegations, as long as the data is good and there's no evidence otherwise.

Poor journalism. Some of the words in that article are judgmental, belie the author's own sentiment, and create an image in the reader's head intended to sway opinion (e.g. "demanding" and "insisted" instead of "asking" and "held that." This is biased reporting.

Wonder what caused the head of NOAA, Kathryn Sullivan to balk at releasing the requested info.

Go ahead, bash me if you will, but I am always going to question something that does not make sense. This refusal to release information makes no sense. Maybe this is a personal vendetta for both, or politically motivated. Still, when you want money from a budgetary committee in Congress, seems prudent to provide, not hide, information a committee chairman/member asks for - no matter if you head NOAA or HUD or any government agency.

(Punctuation edit)

Others have already answered you but to put it simply all you need to know about what the scientists in question have done is in their published results. The data they used is available to anyone who wants to try and refute their results. If they were dishonest about their results it shouldn't be that hard for another scientist to show that. As it was with the "Climategate" emails it's an effort to quote mine and ultimately is much ado about nothing.
Quoting 96. hydrus:

Bubbha the Love Sponge...Bet he could pound da brews....:)


Funny you say that. There's a radio host in Tampa with that very name minus the "H" in Bubbha. He's always stirring the pot.

A cool 63 here today. Temps might dip to the 30's tonight before the rebound begins with increasing chances of much needed rain later in the week.
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Winter weather threatening this week.

Despite the calendar clearly showing that it's officially spring, and despite the fact that springlike weather has been with us for most of the past two weeks, mother nature has decided to remind us that winter weather is a totally normal part of early spring around the Great Lakes. This week will be no exception to that rule.

A weak disturbance moving along the line of an arctic front draped across the region will bring a coating to a few centimetres of snow to areas north and east of the Greater Toronto Area into Eastern Ontario on Tuesday. A cold rain or a rain-wet snow mix is expected across much of the Golden Horseshoe, and just a few showers and mild April like temperatures will be experienced in Southwestern Ontario.

However a stronger low pressure system is expected to emerge from Colorado on Tuesday and then track towards Southern Ontario. This late season winter storm is threatening to bring significant amounts of precipitation to Southern Ontario. Latest indications suggest significant snow is possible over areas extending from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay across northern parts of the Greater Toronto Area into Eastern Ontario. Freezing rain and ice pellets may be a significant issue to deal with across a large part of Southwestern Ontario, the Golden Horseshoe and parts of Eastern Ontario. A significant rainfall may be an issue to deal with over locales closer to Lake Erie.

Considerable uncertainty remains with the exact track of this Colorado low. Even a slight northward or southward shift in the track of this storm will affect how much snow, freezing precipitation or rain falls at any particular location.

Motorists should be prepared for a return to hazardous winter driving conditions this week, especially in areas that receive freezing precipitation or snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 80. Naga5000:



"In the United States, plastics are not made from crude oil. They are manufactured from hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) and natural gas. HGL are byproducts of petroleum refining and natural gas processing. These liquids are used as feedstocks by petrochemical manufacturers to make plastic and are used as fuels in the manufacturing process.

In 20101, about 191 million barrels of HGL were used in the United States to make plastic products in the plastic materials and resins industry, which was equal to about 2.7% of total U.S. petroleum consumption. Of those 191 million barrels, 190 million barrels were used as feedstock and 1 million barrels were consumed as fuel to manufacture these products.

In addition to HGL, about 412 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas were used to make plastic materials and resins in 2010. This was equal to about 1.7% of total U.S. natural gas consumption. Of the 412 Bcf of natural gas, 13 Bcf were used as feedstock, and 399 Bcf were consumed as fuel to manufacture these products.

In addition to HGL and natural gas, about 65 billion kilowatthours of electricity were used to manufacture plastics in 2010, equal to about 1.7% of total U.S. electricity consumption." Link

Limiting fossil fuels use to creating products would be an incredible reduction.


Google can really make people look smart. What a wonderful tool.
Working in the Oil refining and offshore drilling production can give a single soul like myself a good background as experience is what gives us all a edge.

We are all ignorant,jus about different things.

But we ALL have the tools to educate ourselves in just about anything we want with all this connectivity.






Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall in the am. Going down to the 30's here in North Florida tonight so I know it's going to be much colder further North and here are the forecast lows overnight....................Stay Warm.


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database



Quoting 103. luvtogolf:



Google can really make people look smart. What a wonderful tool.


And what's up with people reading books, amirite?
The internet is a wonderful thing, sort of.

It makes some people smarter.

It makes some people dumber.
Good old South Dakota. Currently 66 degrees, clear and Sunny, and they just issued a Winter Storm Watch for Wednesday. LOL!

Link
Quoting 76. NativeSun:

One more thing, until they find a renewable energy source that can produce all the other thing that fossil fuels produce, then their is really only a small market for renewable fuels, like solar, wind, and hydro. For electrical we could use solar and nuclear, until our technology can find a substitute for fossil fuels, that produce almost everything else we use.
Nuclear Fusion power production is a reality right now and could power the entire Earth's needs with power to spare, if we would just make use of the technologies we already have developed for its use. The Sun is the only safely-sited Nuclear Fusion reactor in the Solar System and will keep producing for about the next 5 billion years, longer than the Earth has existed. All we need is the will to use it.
Quoting 111. GeoffreyWPB:

Early hurricane forecast calls for below-average season
that will change watch wait see
compare same date years 2015 2016



mid week outlook
Quoting 87. nymore:



I am all for a healthy and educated population, don't get me wrong. The reality is there is x amount of cash to spend, it is how we spend (waste it) it that is the problem. I say let the outside of the gov't bean counters free to audit every dept of the federal gov't. When waste or incompetence or duplicate functions are found simply fire those involved. Now I know many people are going to lose jobs but so be it.

We spend more per student through college than any other nation, we pay more for drugs than any other country even though we are possibly the biggest customer. We pay doctors far far more than other countries. We pay more in military waste than other countries pay for their military. I could go on and on and on

Lets just start here and watch the heads roll and the money suddenly show up.

FWIW I always take your posts seriously since your opinions are well thought out unlike many here.


I do not suggest that you would think that the health and education of our citizens would be unimportant. I have no reason to doubt that you do see the necessity of a healthy and educated populace. What I question is where you think sacrifices should be made in achieving the goals of having a healthy and educated populace. You seem to be willing to sacrifice the education of 3/4 of the population in order for the remaining 1/4 to be better educated. I am using your own comment to base this on. I see this as the sacrifices being made in the wrong places. We must make sacrifices to afford all citizens the possibility to a better education or else we have failed by 3/4, using your numbers. I do not have the answers to offer, or else I would offer them for review. Perhaps the real issue is with our seeing societal prosperity being too closely interconnected with financial and material gains. We are the wealthiest nation to ever exist and yet our health and education systems lack much to be desired, on a global scale. Would this not suggest to you that we, as a nation, as a people, are making the sacrifices in the wrong places?

You bring up talking points that cannot be ignored any more than the talking points that I bring up can be ignored. Where I see the fallacy in your comments is that you only look at the costs associated with actions being taken and fail to see the costs associated with inaction. Inaction, in these areas, will only help to assure that this nation will struggle to prosper going forward. How do we weigh these costs with the costs associated with trying to keep us prosperous throughout time? We either invest in the future now, or we severely limit our possibilities moving into the future.

We always try to eliminate waste. Only waste managers appreciate waste. Waste is, and always will be, a part of the process. What would we have today if every inventor stopped after their first failure in order to minimize waste? What scientific gains would we have now if waste was not a part of the process? What you suggest is that everything is done properly and successfully the first time, and every time, something is attempted. Not every BS, Masters or PhD degree will bring us great societal gains. Not every healthy person will be productive. Not every dollar spent will see a positive return. When we do not strive to obtain these things, on a societal basis, then we all will suffer for not doing so.

FWIW, reasoned comments deserve reasoned responses. I would not have placed such thought in my comments if you did not make me think before I commented. You are the initiator of my well thought out response, if, indeed, it is viewed as such.

A chimney is seen in front of residential buildings during a polluted day in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China, January 21, 2016.
REUTERS/STRINGER

Mon Mar 21, 2016 12:11pm EDT
Carbon emissions highest in 66 million years, since dinosaur age

OSLO | BY ALISTER DOYLE


The rate of carbon emissions is higher than at any time in fossil records stretching back 66 million years to the age of the dinosaurs, according to a study on Monday that sounds an alarm about risks to nature from man-made global warming.

Scientists wrote that the pace of emissions even eclipses the onset of the biggest-known natural surge in fossil records, 56 million years ago, that was perhaps driven by a release of frozen stores of greenhouse gases beneath the seabed.

That ancient release, which drove temperatures up by an estimated 5 degrees Celsius (9 Fahrenheit) and damaged marine life by making the oceans acidic, is often seen as a parallel to the risks from the current build-up of carbon in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels.

"Given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years," the scientists wrote in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The dinosaurs went extinct about 66 million years ago, perhaps after a giant asteroid struck the Earth.

Lead author Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawaii said geological records were vague and "it's not well known if/how much carbon was released" in that cataclysm.

Current carbon emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels, are about 10 billion tonnes a year, against 1.1 billion a year spread over 4,000 years at the onset of the fast warming 56 million years ago, the study found.

The scientists examined the chemical makeup of fossils of tiny marine organisms in the seabed off the New Jersey in the United States to gauge that ancient warming, known as the Paleoeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM).

U.N. studies project that temperatures could rise by up to 4.8C this century, causing floods, droughts and more powerful storms, if emissions rise unchecked. Carbon dioxide forms a weak acid in seawater, threatening the ability of creatures such as lobsters or oysters to build protective shells.

"Our results suggest that future ocean acidification and possible effects on marine calcifying organisms will be more severe than during the PETM," Zeebe said.

"Future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM," he said. During the PETM, fish and other creatures may have had longer time to adapt to warming waters through evolution.
Peter Stassen, of the University of Leuven who was not involved in the study, said the study was a step to unravel what happened in the PETM.

The PETM "is a crucial part of our understanding of how the climate system can react to carbon dioxide increases," he told Reuters.

(Reporting by Alister Doyle; Editing by Catherine Evans)
Hey admin or mod there is a issue with the ignore list I have tryed too re moved two names on my ignore list but after some time the names on the ignore list are still there are waiting a few minutes But the nameds are still there

I think there a issue I wounder if any one else has a problem With there ignore list
Quoting 113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that will change watch wait see


I agree, but i knew CSU would say that. They'll probably go with something like 10,5,2. I don't really trust the April Forecast due to the Spring Predictability Barrier. We're likely o be in a much DIFFERENT ENSO state by June, so I'm looking more forward to NOAA's late may forecast, CSU'S June 1st, and TSR June 1st forecast. BTW CSU'S early forecast will be issued on April 14th, and June 1sr. TSR April 5th.
Quoting 109. LuckySD:

Good old South Dakota. Currently 66 degrees, clear and Sunny, and they just issued a Winter Storm Watch for Wednesday. LOL!

Link


I remember riding my motorcycle with temperatures in the 70s, and then it would be snowing later that night when I lived in Oklahoma. The Great Plains of the U.S. are famous for huge temperature swings in a short period of time.
Quoting 72. Patrap:

Dr. Michael Mann just posted this on FB.

Current record-shattering temperatures are shocking even to climate scientists

February 2016 was likely the hottest month in thousands of years, as we approach the 2°C danger limit.



“Stunning,” “wow,” “shocker,” “bombshell,” “astronomical,” “insane,” “unprecedented”– these are some of the words climate scientists have used to describe the record-shattering global surface temperatures in February 2016.



It’s difficult to see any ‘pause’ or slowdown in the global warming over the past 50 years.

To put the current temperatures into context, prior to last October, monthly global surface temperatures had not been more than 0.96°C hotter than the 1951–1980 average, according to Nasa. The past 5 months have been 1.06°C, 1.03°C, 1.10°C, 1.14°C, and 1.35°C hotter than that average, absolutely destroying previous records. Estimates from Noaa are in broad agreement with those from Nasa.

Right now, the Earth’s average surface temperature is hotter than it’s been in thousands of years; potentially even longer.

How much of a role is El Niño playing?

We’re currently at the peak of a very strong El Niño event, which has brought warm water up to the ocean surface. That’s certainly played a major role in the current record-breaking temperatures. The hottest years are almost invariably years with El Niño events, although 2014 was the first year in decades to set a temperature record without an El Niño.

For comparison, the current El Niño event is very similar to a previous one in 1997–1998. That event made 1998 by far the hottest year on record at the time, and it’s why contrarians often cherry pick temperatures over the past 18 years – the abnormally hot 1998 was 18 years ago.

However, the past 6 months have been 0.43°C hotter than the corresponding months in 1997–1998. So clearly, while El Niño is a big contributor to the current record-shattering temperatures, human-caused global warming is playing a major role as well. Climate scientist Michael Mann attributed the record to approximately 50% human influences, and 50% a combination of El Niño and natural weather fluctuations.

Are temperatures approaching dangerous levels?

Last December, 195 countries signed the COP21 international climate agreement in Paris. Graham Readfearn summarized the agreement for The Guardian:

The guts of the agreement hang off the so-called “long-term goal” that commits almost 200 countries to hold the global average temperature to “well below 2°C” above pre-industrial levels and to “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”.

Depending on how exactly we define “pre-industrial,” February temperatures were between 1.5 and 2°C hotter than those in pre-industrial times. So, we’re already starting to tread on thin ice, in the range that the global community has deemed dangerously hot.
However, since we’re at the peak of an El Niño, as they did after 1998, global surface temperatures will temporarily go back down once this event is over. That is, until human-caused global warming pushes them up to and beyond these temperatures once again in the near future. As climate scientists Steve Sherwood and Stefan Rahmstorf wrote,

This is the true climate emergency: it is getting more difficult with each passing year for humanity to prevent temperatures from rising above 2℃. February should remind us how pressing the situation is.

A glimpse at the consequences of global warming

In the meantime, we’re getting a glimpse at the future climate consequences of our carbon pollution. Just to name a few, Africa is being battered by heat and drought, with more than 36 million people facing hunger across the southern and eastern parts of the continent as a result. Droughts in Vietnam and Zimbabwe have cost these countries 4% and 12% of their GDP, respectively. Arctic ice is in poor shape as a result of the region’s warmest-recorded winter. Australia has been breaking heat records as well, with 39 consecutive days in Sydney above 26℃ (double the previous record). And a massive coral bleaching event appears likely on the Great Barrier Reef.



These are some of the reasons why temperatures 1.5–2°C above pre-industrial levels are considered dangerous. This intense heat is not good for agriculture, ice, sea levels, or coral reefs. There’s still time for us to prevent such high temperatures from becoming the norm, but that time is running out.

Fortunately there’s been some good news that we may be on the verge of getting carbon pollution and global warming under control, but we have to continue with this progress and avoid reversing it. People seem to be grasping the problem just in time: a record number of Americans (41%) now see global warming as a threat, and almost two-thirds realize that humans are responsible. California is providing a blueprint for solving the problem, as the state’s carbon pollution has fallen despite a growing population, as its economy has thrived.

We’re capable of solving the climate problem, but with temperatures already approaching dangerous thresholds, the time to act is now.




There have been pauses and accelerations. There used to be reversals but the last one of these was in the late 40s to early 70s. There seems to be a 20 year periodicity in the rate of warming correlated with the similar periodicity of the PDO. The mid 70s to mid 90s were a period of rapid warming, 40s to 70s of cooling and 90s to mid teens slow warming. We are now in rapid warming (apart from the El Nino burst) and this will likely last another 20 years or so.

This periodicity gives opportunity for cherrypicking. Time series beginning in the mid 90s show relatively little warming, series beginning in the late 70s show somewhat above baseline warming. A recent flagarant cherrypick was denier articles stating the radiosonde data began in the early 50s but time series of their means began in the late 70s. This accused the researchers of cherrypicking but in turn the early 50s start point began at the start of a cooling period and did not consider first half of the century warming so the complainers did their own cherrypick.

Cold cherry picking is going to get increasingly hard in the next decades.. the reversals are no longer there.
Quoting 120. tiggerhurricanes2001:



I agree, but i knew CSU would say that. They'll probably go with something like 10,5,2. I don't really trust the April Forecast due to the Spring Predictability Barrier. We're likely o be in a much DIFFERENT ENSO state by June, so I'm looking more forward to NOAA's late may forecast, CSU'S June 1st, and TSR June 1st forecast. BTW CSU'S early forecast will be issued on April 14th, and June 1sr. TSR April 5th.


Last year as of April 9th, CSU predicted 7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major.
Link
We actually saw 11 storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 majors.
So I don't put much trust in these predictions.

I took an educated guess and went with 12 storms last year.

117. Patrap
9:46 PM GMT on March 21, 2016




Oil field has been cranking in that province since 1960 , And currently the fourth most productive oil field in the world...

Quoting 123. Sfloridacat5:



Last year as of April 1st, CSU predicted 7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major.
Link
We actually saw 11 storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 majors.
So I don't put much trust in these predictions.

I'd put more faith in The June forecast rather than May, but it all depends on what forecasting company you trust. If I'm not mistaken, TSR forecasts 13,5,2. Anything can definitely happen, but forecasts usually improves as time goes on.
I've pondered on this drought thing so many times while in dry to desert areas.
So little thought goes out to where water comes from, until there is no water! Then shortly afterwards there is all sorts of death, usually mainly in the plant and sometimes animal world.
Make me think where we are going to put all the thirsty migrants in the coming years?

Meanwhile raining in Spain at Easter time for a change. This is a sunset photo tonight.

Some windy blips from Russia. As you may have read, in the wee hours of March 19, after midnight, a plane crashed in Rostov-on-Don (southwestern Russia), sadly smashing all 62 persons on board into death. Turbulences and crosswinds were prevailing in these hours of the accident, likely contributing to the accident. In this aviation blog a post from a guy with the handle of Microscalewx contributed some thoughts and maps about weather in this location at this time. Currently they are trying to read the flight recorders in Moscow, so I guess we'll soon know more.
Edit: This is the latest video of the crash at Rostov airport which just came up.

Interestingly there is a cumulation of reports of very stormy gusts from Russia right now. I guess it's still the same trough with its stormy fronts ripping from west to east through Russia. Here some videos:

This lucky escape happened in Labinsk in south western Russia, near to the area where the plane went down, just a couple of hours later (March 19):


This - quite funny - surprise of high winds caught folks in Khanty-Mansiysk (central Russia) yesterday:


And this video of a blown away roof is from today, further to the northeast in Dudinka:


I'd love to provide some maps which may track this system which might have been responsable for all those severe winds (it's not happening every day that so many reports of damaging winds from Russia intrude European weather news), but it's hard for me to get any.

Good night with this, everyone.
Quoting 70. BobHenson:



Stay tuned--we have an ENSO post coming in the next few days!


Yes looking forward to reading it

Quoting 71. luvtogolf:



A bit anxious for a hurricane aren't you?


Umm no but since it's my last hurricane season in the Cayman Islands if not forever then for the next few decades it would make sense to have this one go out with a bang

But to answer that no

Quoting 111. GeoffreyWPB:

Early hurricane forecast calls for below-average season


Nah not buying that one bit

Quoting 113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that will change watch wait see


Most certainly

Quoting 114. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

compare same date years 2015 2016






Much warmer and larger area of warmer waters

Quoting 126. washingtonian115:




It's high even for this time of year it's actually higher than last few years before 2010 we would need to look

130. JRRP7
Quoting 129. wunderkidcayman:



Yes looking forward to reading it



Umm no but since it's my last hurricane season in the Cayman Islands if not forever then for the next few decades it would make sense to have this one go out with a bang

But to answer that no



Nah not buying that one bit



Most certainly



Much warmer and larger area of warmer waters



It's high even for this time of year it's actually higher than last few years before 2010 we would need to look





Link
This is the story how one species changed a Planet.





About the 2016 Atlantic season - I wouldn't say it is going to be a quiet season for sure. If the MDR warms as much as it did last year and we get a La Niña we should have around 14-16 storms. If the MDR stays cool and the El Niño slowly weakens to a neutral state by late summer, we could be looking at a season less active than the past two years. We will just have to wait and see.
133. JRRP7
at this time it is hard to believe to me that we will see many major hurricanes but I think we could see an ACE between 95-115
Quoting 133. JRRP7:

at this time it is hard to believe to me that we will see many major hurricanes but I think we could see an ACE between 95-115
Quoting 133. JRRP7:

at this time it is hard to believe to me that we will see many major hurricanes but I think we could see an ACE between 95-115
I think a bit more active than last year but low ACE with TC forming north of the MDR and two major.
I just feel like mentioning again that part of the problem is there are too many people. In "Collapse" by Jarrod Dimond a common theme is populations growing too large for the environment, thus making them more suceptable to environmental catastrophe.
Quoting 132. HurricaneFan:

About the 2016 Atlantic season - I wouldn't say it is going to be a quiet season for sure. If the MDR warms as much as it did last year and we get a La Niña we should have around 14-16 storms. If the MDR stays cool and the El Niño slowly weakens to a neutral state by late summer, we could be looking at a season less active than the past two years. We will just have to wait and see.
The issue i think is the very slow rate this El nino is declining vs other years like 98. So is very possible we get the effects for the peak of the season with high shear and dry mdr like the last 5 seasons.
And a very active epac will shear the Atlantic.
Every year brings the chance for a Major in the Atlantic basin regardless of patterns, etc..

Take the A storm from 1992.

Imagine if we did not get the A storm in 2016 till Mid August.

We would need a wu Tropical suicide Hotline for some here.

That A storm was a cat 5.

And yes I know Alex formed in January so the next up will be the B storm.

Quoting 139. Patrap:

Take the A storm from 1992.

Imagine if we did not get the A storm in 2016 till Mid August.

We would need a wu Tropical suicide Hotline for some here.

That A storm was a cat 5.

And yes I know Alex formed in January so the next up will be the B storm.
Or August 30, 1977 for our first storm, Anita. Also a cat 5. With Alex already, anyone complaining about a slow tropical season is hereby cast into the B list.
Quoting 135. plantmoretrees:

I just feel like mentioning again that part of the problem is there are too many people. In "Collapse" by Jarrod Dimond a common theme is populations growing too large for the environment, thus making them more suceptable to environmental catastrophe.
An excellent book. Have you read The World Until Yesterday by him? That, Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse form a kind of trilogy.
For the interested, Robert Plant and the Sensational Space Shifters are live here from Austin' City Limits, Texas in 10 min.


Quoting 97. riverat544:


Others have already answered you but to put it simply all you need to know about what the scientists in question have done is in their published results. The data they used is available to anyone who wants to try and refute their results. If they were dishonest about their results it shouldn't be that hard for another scientist to show that. As it was with the "Climategate" emails it's an effort to quote mine and ultimately is much ado about nothing.
All I need to know?
I will question anything, anywhere, anytime I wish when it does not make sense to me. This refusal to provide info does not make sense.

Quote mine? Lamar Smith's is a legitimate request, and there is no reason to refuse it.
144. JRRP7
Quoting 134. Gearsts:

I think a bit more active than last year but low ACE with TC forming north of the MDR and two major.


well i am thinking more like 1953 in terms of major hurricanes
Regarding the topic of this blog, this is an excellent book Floods, Famines and Emperors: El Nino and the fate of civilizations (1999). The author is an anthropologist. His book gives perspective on ancient civilizations brought down by weather and gives some history that points out the relative "newness" of human knowledge regarding weather phenomena like El Nino and the ocean oscillations.

I have not seen the new edition revised and republished in 2009, but there is one out.
For the love of......could we please, please have a moratorium on the characterizations of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season until after, oh, I dunno, say Thanksgiving?
Quoting 136. Gearsts:

The issue i think is the very slow rate this El nino is declining vs other years like 98. So is very possible we get the effects for the peak of the season with high shear and dry mdr like the last 5 seasons.

Actually, this el nino decline is actually ahead as far as current SST'S. 98 was actually warmer at this time.
88. Naga5000
7:38 PM GMT on March 21, 2016


Goll. I gotta chuckle. I'm not missing anything. Believe me. I see more than most people do, and I don't have a dog in this race as you do. The whole thing, pure and simple, is political, and in an election year.

Does Kathryn Sullivan give the impression there is something to hide by refusing Rep Lamar's request? Yes. Then why does she not comply with the request and blow him out of the water? I'd guess some higher up government mucky-muck told her not to.

No one knows what is in those emails except the people who wrote them... Not the higher up mucky-muck, not Ms. Sullivan, not Lamar Smith, and not the U.S. citizenry. That's the crux you do not see. Government employees are responsible to the public, no matter what their job descriptions.

I will not respond to you further (add: on this topic).
149. JRRP7
Quoting 146. ACSeattle:

For the love of......could we please, please have a moratorium on the characterizations of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season until after, oh, I dunno, say Thanksgiving?

lo siento pero yo no entiendo ingles... :D
Thank you for this brief on the future. Suggest Ronald Wright's "A Short History of Progress"
Quoting 147. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Actually, this el nino decline is actually ahead as far as current SST'S. 98 was actually warmer at this time.

So far, SST anomalies are down to +1.7C from a peak of +3.1C. This El Nino is weakening, but has a long way to go before reaching ENSO neutral. I'm not sure what 1997-98 was like at this time, but, this El Nino has to start crashing fast or else it won't be gone soon enough to turn into a La Nina by hurricane season.
Quoting 148. Barefootontherocks:

88. Naga5000
7:38 PM GMT on March 21, 2016


Goll. I gotta chuckle. I'm not missing anything. Believe me. I see more than most people do, and I don't have a dog in this race as you do The whole thing, pure and simple, is political, and in an election year.

Does Kathryn Sullivan give the impression there is something to hide by refusing Rep Lamar's request? Yes. Then why does she not comply with the request and blow him out of the water? I'd guess some higher up government mucky-muck told her not to.

No one knows what is in those emails except the people who wrote them... Not the higher up mucky-muck, not Ms. Sullivan, not Lamar Smith, and not the U.S. citizenry. That's the crux you do not see. Government employees are responsible to the public, no matter what their job descriptions.

I will not respond to you further.


You keep saying that, please do so. I've really had enough defense of the indefensible. Using unlimited government power to question the results of science you don't like doesn't give you any pause, but not turning over emails courts have said previously (in similar cases) represent proprietary scholarly research and the protection of academic freedom is SOOO outrageous. Generally, if you disagree with someones findings, you publish a response or another research paper that calls into question those findings, You know, how science has worked every single time.What you don't do is subpoena all their work and emails using blatant lies and misrepresentations as your justification. But whatever, you see more than most people....

Quoting 143. Barefootontherocks:

All I need to know?
I will question anything, anywhere, anytime I wish when it does not make sense to me. This refusal to provide info does not make sense.

Quote mine? Lamar Smith's is a legitimate request, and there is no reason to refuse it.


Asking for every single email containing the words, temperature, climate, and change is legitimate? I would hate to see your definition of illegitimate. The mental acrobatics being done to legitimize the actions of a science denier with power are quite stunning to watch. Where is one of those skeptics when you need one?
Quoting 140. BaltimoreBrian:

Or August 30, 1977 for our first storm, Anita. Also a cat 5. With Alex already, anyone complaining about a slow tropical season is hereby cast into the B list.
Someone needs to say it and I will "This season is a bust" lol people stay calm for now.2015 had a horrid sst profile at the beginning of the season and we ended up with a above average sst profile by the end of it.Also check this out 2005 didn't have a active cape verde season..it was mostly focused in the western Atlantic.I said in 2015 that the storms out there near Africa will not be our problem it will be the ones that are close in.Prime example last year is Joaquin and all it took was a drop in shear over the record warm waters and boom the Bahamas had a huge problem no one even saw coming a week out.What do you know? The waters are very warm in the western atlantic again this year and shear has been running below average in the caribbean so far.The western Atlantic will be he place to look this year....
Requests for records are a standard technique for "special interests" to harass climate scientists. It keeps the scientists busy doing useless tasks when they could instead be doing their real jobs.
Quoting 154. bappit:

Requests for records are a standard technique for "special interests" to harass climate scientists. It keeps the scientists busy doing useless tasks when they could instead be doing their real jobs.


Where are the Smith supporters demanding to see his emails? His funding comes directly from fossil fuel interests. Funny, just crickets.
Quoting 143. Barefootontherocks:

All I need to know?
I will question anything, anywhere, anytime I wish when it does not make sense to me. This refusal to provide info does not make sense.

Quote mine? Lamar Smith's is a legitimate request, and there is no reason to refuse it.

All that the scientists have to say on the subject is in their published results. Their internal communications including email are irrelevant to what they published.

Suppose some scientist played devils advocate to make sure some area was thoroughly explored. Lamar Smith is going to take that quote and try to make something out of it that it never was.
Quoting 143. Barefootontherocks:

All I need to know?
I will question anything, anywhere, anytime I wish when it does not make sense to me. This refusal to provide info does not make sense.

Quote mine? Lamar Smith's is a legitimate request, and there is no reason to refuse it.

I'm not a scientist either, but I refute his illegitimate request. The context is enough. His past behavior provides a context. And, barefoot, I don't have a dog in this race as you obviously do, and you can't stop me from saying this. :-p
Sorry, I couldn't contain myself. The weather in chi-town is very normal for this time of year. Boring.
Quoting 119. Tazmanian:

Hey admin or mod there is a issue with the ignore list I have tryed too re moved two names on my ignore list but after some time the names on the ignore list are still there are waiting a few minutes But the nameds are still there

I think there a issue I wounder if any one else has a problem With there ignore list
I'd wait until June before trying to predict the hurricane season. SST patterns can change really quickly as we saw last year with the unexpected quick warm up of the MDR. Not to mention we'll be transitioning from El Nino to Neutral-La Nina conditions and sometimes the transition can be very quick as 1998 showed. It rapidly transitioned into moderate La Nina anomalies by August-October. It had just as high, if not higher, anomalies at this point in the year of 98, particularly in the Nino 1 2 region when compared to this El Nino episode. There's big uncertainties this year, more so than usual, given there's potential for the hurricane season to be very active just like the 1998 hurricane season, or to be below avergae, much like the 1983 hurricane season (although I doubt it'll be as quiet as that season). Here's to hoping that whichever way the season goes that most of the strong storms curve out to sea and any that do affect land give beneficial rains with minimal destructure and loss of life.
Quoting 153. washingtonian115:

Someone needs to say it and I will "This season is a bust" lol people stay calm for now.2015 had a horrid sst profile at the beginning of the season and we ended up with a above average sst profile by the end of it.Also check this out 2005 didn't have a active cape verde season..it was mostly focused in the western Atlantic.I said in 2015 that the storms out there near Africa will not be our problem it will be the ones that are close in.Prime example last year is Joaquin and all it took was a drop in shear over the record warm waters and boom the Bahamas had a huge problem no one even saw coming a week out.What do you know? The waters are very warm in the western atlantic again this year and shear has been running below average in the caribbean so far.The western Atlantic will be he place to look this year....


People obsess over CV storms for some reason, and I don't think it's because the occasional Hugo or Andrew can defy climatology and sneak through. I think it's because they honestly just wanna watch beautiful storms explode over open waters. And that's cool. I like that, too.

But when I hear "active season" I don't think of that. I think of major hurricanes threatening land. I think that's what ANYONE on the coast thinks, honestly. A 20 storm season means nothing if you don't have anything to show for it.
Quoting 147. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Actually, this el nino decline is actually ahead as far as current SST'S. 98 was actually warmer at this time.
No is not.
...
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
Bear in mind CFSv2 spring forecasts are highly questionable right now. Atlantic model initialization remains busted.

Quoting 143. Barefootontherocks:

All I need to know?
I will question anything, anywhere, anytime I wish when it does not make sense to me. This refusal to provide info does not make sense.

Quote mine? Lamar Smith's is a legitimate request, and there is no reason to refuse it.


Are you suggesting that quote mining is okay, or are you suggesting that the emails would not be used for quote mining?
Quoting 161. KoritheMan:



People obsess over CV storms for some reason, and I don't think it's because the occasional Hugo or Andrew can defy climatology and sneak through. I think it's because they honestly just wanna watch beautiful storms explode over open waters. And that's cool. I like that, too.

But when I hear "active season" I don't think of that. I think of major hurricanes threatening land. I think that's what ANYONE on the coast thinks, honestly. A 20 storm season means nothing if you don't have anything to show for it.
2010 had 19 named storms and 22 depressions yet (for the most part) land was spared with the exception of Alex,Kyle and Igor.Earl was more of a side swipe but over all no Andrew's or Katrina's that year.Opps can't forget Tomas.
Quoting 161. KoritheMan:



People obsess over CV storms for some reason, and I don't think it's because the occasional Hugo or Andrew can defy climatology and sneak through. I think it's because they honestly just wanna watch beautiful storms explode over open waters. And that's cool. I like that, too.

But when I hear "active season" I don't think of that. I think of major hurricanes threatening land. I think that's what ANYONE on the coast thinks, honestly. A 20 storm season means nothing if you don't have anything to show for it.


Agreed. Though there have been plenty of low latitude Cape Verde systems that go into the Caribbean, and any time that happens, it's "active".
Quoting 94. hydrus:

How can someone with almost 40 years as a Met not actually realize what is happening...JB was quoted as saying.....

" CO2 cannot cause global warming. I'll tell you why. It doesn't mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot -- it literally cannot cause global warming. --- Joe Bastardi, Fox Business, March 9, 2012. "

Man made C02 continues to increase at a pace not seen in hundreds of thousands of years, and not even half of what we put out there is absorbed..To those who do not know, C02 is deadly to insects animals at even marginal levels, and is of greatest concern because it exerts a larger overall warming influence than all of the other gases combined. It has a long atmospheric lifetime, therefore what we pump into the atmosphere remains for a long period of time.


I don't understand stuff like that, to me it's academic betrayal. In atmospheric physics, the physical proofs of the energy budget and why humans adding CO2 is causing warming, is shown in plain mathematical evidence. Did he just learn it, while believing it was really a lie or a conspiracy the whole time? I don't understand it...

Now, disagreeing with how to react to Global Warming and how to handle/manage it is more up for debate, because such is not really a science issue.

If there's one thing I've learned, we must always be careful, and make sure we aren't believing stubborn, goofy things. I know I have been guilty of such, and I think we all do.

Quoting 168. Jedkins01:



I don't understand stuff like that, too me it's academic betrayal. In atmospheric physics, the physical proofs of the energy budget and why humans adding CO2 is causing warming, is shown in plain mathematical evidence. Did he just learn it, while believing it was really a lie or a conspiracy the whole time? I don't understand it...

Now, disagreeing with how to react to Global Warming and how to handle/manage it is more up for debate, because such is not really a science issue.

If there's one thing I've learned, we must always be careful, and make sure we aren't believing stubborn, goofy things. I know I have been guilty of such, and I think we all do.
If I'm not mistaken, you didn't always believe in AGW either. If I see any person ever change their mind through actual evidence like that, I'll make a mental note not to immediately dismiss them as not credible.
Quoting 65. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, very crazy.

From Adam's site. Link Go to projects - World Without War

WORLDWIDE PROJECTS
The world currently spends $1770 billion annually on their militaries.

What if we reduced that by half%u2026

We would suddenly have $885 billion to spend on more productive things for humanity.

Check out some of our suggestions on how this money could be better spent below:

Option A: Hyperloop Transport

Option B: Reverse Deforestation

Option C: Electric Car Revolution

Option D: Space Exploration

Option E: Convert Fossil Fuel Electricity Production To Renewables

Option F: Eliminate World Hunger


The vast majority of which comes from the U.S., we spend and use military like we are a global empire, issuing no fly zones, sanctions, and invading nations that are no threat to us in the name of the "war on terror(which creates more terrorism)".
Can you imagine if Russia or China behaved how we do? We would have called for a war invasion ages ago, and would have declared such as tyranny. Interesting how if it's the other guys, it's tyranny, but as long as its Murica' it's our "moral patriot duty to spread freedom and democracy"

Now, I realize we still need a sturdy military, because there will always be evil, but our military just massively dwarfs everyone else in size and capability. If we ever face another world war threat like WWII, then sure, ramp up the military size. But we need to head home and reduce the military size, and use it only for defense.

Last I checked, it's not legal or ethical for me go around shooting people with my personal guns in the name of democracy and war on terror when there is no home threat, so let's not due so with military.
Imagine if we cut the massive debt, decentralized government power, and increased a focus on building unity, community, and a sustainable future. Something tells me we'd be hearing less about trump riots, mass killing sprees, and class warfare.

Our future is unstable, and unsure, and it will surely fail if we remain divided, but is absolutely sustainable if we work together as a loving community.
Quoting 169. KoritheMan:

If I'm not mistaken, you didn't always believe in AGW either. If I see any person ever change their mind through actual evidence like that, I'll make a mental note not to immediately dismiss them as not credible.


You're right, there was a time when I didn't, and it was purely because I never looked into the issue with an honest mindset. The tricky thing about being human sometimes though, is that we can be our own worst enemy. We are great at lying to ourselves if it means insisting on wanting to believe something for whatever purpose we want such to serve for our gain. There are many other examples of this, but I've changed my position on some things significantly over the years, and while some may call that flip flopping, I'm thankful for my some of my dramatic changes in perspective, and find it funny thinking how I once thought to the contrary.

Given that, while showing people evidence and facts are important, presenting them properly with respect to others is the only way to go. Just because people can believe ridiculous things, it doesn't make that person stupid. Humans are complex, and the reasons for what people believe is also complicated, and is shaped by their personality plus experiences and thought processes. Given that, when someone is stubborn against the obvious, I think the best thing we can do is give them what we know, but know that we can't choose for people. Shoving things down the throat is not only unkind and disrespectful, but it won't help ever from what I've seen. If anything, it tends to make people go farther away from what one is trying to prove.

There is plenty of evidence for human causes warming, and for those who have heard the message, there won't be any change as long as people don't want to know.

Generall speaking, we as people only hear what we want to hear, and that's true for all of us, so we have to be weary and not be so certain we are truth seekers, because we might be just the opposite. Sometimes the truth is in plain sight, and we refuse it, for a number of different reasons, depending on who we are.

Quoting 171. Jedkins01:



You're right, there was a time when I didn't, and it was purely because I never looked into the issue with an honest mindset. The tricky thing about being human sometimes though, is that we can be our own worst enemy. We are great at lying to ourselves if it means insisting on wanting to believe something for whatever purpose we want such to serve for our gain. There are many other examples of this, but I've changed my position on some things significantly over the years, and I can say that it was also for the same reason.

Given that, while showing people evidence and facts our important, presenting them properly with respect to others is the only way to go. Just because people can believe ridiculous things, it doesn't make that person stupid. Humans are complex, and the reasons for what people believe is also complicated, and is shaped by their personality plus experiences and thought processes. Given that, when someone is stubborn against the obvious, I think the best thing we can do is give them what we know, and leave up to them. Shoving things down the throat is not only unkind and disrespectful, but it won't help ever from what I've seen. If anything, it tends to make people go farther away from what one is trying to prove.

There is plenty of evidence for human causes warming, and for those who have heard the message, there won't be any change as long as people don't want to know.

People only here what they want to hear, and that's true for all of us, so we have to be weary and be so certain we are truth seekers, because we might be just the opposite. Sometimes the truth is in plain site, and we refuse it, for a number of different reasons, depending on who we are.
Well yes. People will shut their minds off to evidence if it's presented aggressively. That's just psychology.

I wonder, do you think I display that quality? I feel like your post was your idea of a friendly reproach, since I've been guilty of all of those things at least once.

I guess what grabs me is recognition. I can usually denote why people feel a certain way about stuff, but understanding and dignifying are distinct. I doubt I can ever fully unite the two.
I say full Pacific La Niña this year no Atlantic La Niña this year high temps low shear low pressures across the Atlantic more so Caribbean and Gulf more storm/hurricanes with higher impacts to land and less fish storm
Quoting 119. Tazmanian:

Hey admin or mod there is a issue with the ignore list I have tryed too re moved two names on my ignore list but after some time the names on the ignore list are still there are waiting a few minutes But the nameds are still there

I think there a issue I wounder if any one else has a problem With there ignore list

I don't have an ignore list. Therefore, no problem.
But anyway I will leave final judgment till when I issue my seasonal forecast in April and seasonal forecast update in May/June
An honorable mention could be given to Afghanistan, which suffered its worst drought on record from 1970-1973. The resulting instability lead to the end of its monarchy in 1973, an increasingly alarming parade of governments by coup until the Soviet invasion in 1979, and decades of war and misery since.
JMO, Sometimes, errrrrrrrrrrrr, mostly people believe in what they what to here and want to believe.
The majority of humans, lemmings would be a good adjective, will just follow an idea implanted in their brain by someone who has little knowledge in the area they are promoting. Just take a minute to think about the terrorists, racists, and many other cults that think this is the way things work. People in general are followers, but this is just the way it is?

BTW, had less than 1/2 inch of rain here from the weather on Saturday.


Quoting 168. Jedkins01:



I don't understand stuff like that, to me it's academic betrayal. In atmospheric physics, the physical proofs of the energy budget and why humans adding CO2 is causing warming, is shown in plain mathematical evidence. Did he just learn it, while believing it was really a lie or a conspiracy the whole time? I don't understand it...

Now, disagreeing with how to react to Global Warming and how to handle/manage it is more up for debate, because such is not really a science issue.

If there's one thing I've learned, we must always be careful, and make sure we aren't believing stubborn, goofy things. I know I have been guilty of such, and I think we all do.
Quoting 173. wunderkidcayman:

I say full Pacific La Niña this year no Atlantic La Niña this year high temps low shear low pressures across the Atlantic more so Caribbean and Gulf more storm/hurricanes with higher impacts to land and less fish storm
Some data backing that would be great.
Dream -NAO that won't happen.
Quoting 178. Gearsts:

Some data backing that would be great.


My crystal ball.
Quoting 172. KoritheMan:

Well yes. People will shut their minds off to evidence if it's presented aggressively. That's just psychology.

I wonder, do you think I display that quality? I feel like your post was your idea of a friendly reproach, since I've been guilty of all of those things at least once.

I guess what grabs me is recognition. I can usually denote why people feel a certain way about stuff, but understanding and dignifying are distinct. I doubt I can ever fully unite the two.


Nope it wasn't directed towards you at all. That doesn't mean you don't have areas in your life that it applies to, but as I mentioned it applies to me as well, and for all of us. I think one the most helpful things all of us can do, is acknowledge human weakness to be wise in our own eyes, which was basically my point.

I know I was replying to you, but I specifically tried to word it neutrally since it applies for everyone and such that it wouldn't seem like I'm trying to single you out or single anyone else out, lol.
Quoting 179. Gearsts:

Dream -NAO that won't happen.



If you backpedal a bit to current 10-day forecasts (still very unreliable but way more so than a 14-day forecast), you'll notice that the GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles are trying to put a trough over southeast Canada, which may eventually lead to what that image is showing. I don't think it's completely unreasonable with the ensembles in agreement.

I'd put the odds of it happening at 15%, which is pretty high for a 2-week forecast.

Quoting 181. Jedkins01:



Nope it wasn't directed towards you at all. That doesn't mean you don't have areas in your life that it applies to, but as I mentioned it applies to me as well, and for all of us. I think one the most helpful things all of us can do, is acknowledge human weakness to be wise in our own eyes, which was basically my point.

I know I was replying to you, but I specifically tried to word it neutrally since it applies for everyone and such that it wouldn't seem like I'm trying to single you out or single anyone else out, lol.
I would loath to ever call weakness wise. Maybe pragmatic in the sense that we can all learn from our shortcomings, and I can definitely see that.

Nah, I know. But I don't mind. I'm good at admitting my imperfections. I can't exactly tear into people if I don't; self-interest is pragmatic. :P
184. MahFL
Snowing pretty hard at Truckee, I'm doing an unexpected extra half shift, ug...
186. elioe
Quoting 164. Gearsts:

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
Bear in mind CFSv2 spring forecasts are highly questionable right now. Atlantic model initialization remains busted.


It seems to my uneducated eye, that in CFSv2 reactions go like: tropical Atlantic SSTs are too cold -> MSLP all over the Atlantic as well as South America is too high -> MSLP in Pacific, especially eastern part, is too low -> surface winds in the Pacific along equator are too much to the east, and a weak high pressure west of Chile minimizes upwelling -> El Niño gets erroneously reignited.

How is it even possible to get such a big error in initialization? Employees responsible of maintaining the data went to lunch a month ago and forgot to return? The supercomputer, showing signs of emerging sentience, being insulted by being left alone, protests with these errors? :)
Hey All! :)

I was wondering if I could quote you Dr. Masters on this blog posting in a paper I'm doing on some of the causes of the decline of civilizations. I really enjoyed your posting, and it is EXTREMELY helpful in my research. :)

Thanks! - Raven/WunderGirl12
Quoting 178. Gearsts:

Some data backing that would be great.


Don't hold your breath.
Quoting 160. Envoirment:

I'd wait until June before trying to predict the hurricane season. SST patterns can change really quickly as we saw last year with the unexpected quick warm up of the MDR. Not to mention we'll be transitioning from El Nino to Neutral-La Nina conditions and sometimes the transition can be very quick as 1998 showed. It rapidly transitioned into moderate La Nina anomalies by August-October. It had just as high, if not higher, anomalies at this point in the year of 98, particularly in the Nino 1 2 region when compared to this El Nino episode. There's big uncertainties this year, more so than usual, given there's potential for the hurricane season to be very active just like the 1998 hurricane season, or to be below avergae, much like the 1983 hurricane season (although I doubt it'll be as quiet as that season). Here's to hoping that whichever way the season goes that most of the strong storms curve out to sea and any that do affect land give beneficial rains with minimal destructure and loss of life.

Thanks. Gearsts, 98 was just as warm as 2016.
It would be important to note that 9 of the 10 droughts cited above occurred long before man had the ability to influence the climate in any way. There was no industrialization and extremely low population numbers compared to now.

This data actually refutes the climatologist's "it's all man's fault now" mantra.
Quoting 190. Sandy82579:


This data actually refutes the climatologist's "it's all man's fault now" mantra.


How?
Quoting 190. Sandy82579:

It would be important to note that 9 of the 10 droughts cited above occurred long before man had the ability to influence the climate in any way. There was no industrialization and extremely low population numbers compared to now.

This data actually refutes the climatologist's "it's all man's fault now" mantra.


We've heard it all before. Ad nauseum, and then some. Because climate change happened naturally in the past, it's not happening today due to man increasing atmospheric CO2 by 43%. That right?

It's such a pathetic argument, that I can only suppose that those who make it are just immature attention seekers, who get some kind of perverse pleasure from being shot down in flames.
Quoting 190. Sandy82579:



This data actually refutes the climatologist's "it's all man's fault now" mantra.


Carbon is pouring into the atmosphere faster than at any time in the past 66 million years—since the dinosaurs went extinct—according to a new analysis of the geologic record. The study underscores just how profoundly humans are changing Earth’s history. ....................... The new analysis of the sediment record concludes that the carbon rush at the start of the PETM extended over at least 4,000 years. That translates to about 1.1 additional gigatons of carbon per year. Today, fossil fuel burning and other human activity release 10 gigatons of carbon annually.

Link
you know sandy some of the characters are so one sided they got their eyes shut. thats a fact sandy. droughts happen
Quoting 194. islander101010:

you know sandy some of the characters are so one sided they got their eyes shut. thats a fact sandy. droughts happen


nobodysaidtheydidnt.jpg
Good Morning; the current look for Conus and jet configuration:

And forecast and current doppler:

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
And finally the highs for today; extremely quick cold recovery for most of the mid-section of Conus today as compared to the much colder temps yesterday:


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Tue Mar 22 2016

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 22 2016 - 12Z Thu Mar 24 2016

...Rain and mountain snow to continue for the northwestern U.S. into
Tuesday...

...Heavy snow possible spanning from the Central Rockies to the Upper
Midwest, Great Lakes and New England region through Wednesday...

...Warming trend on the way for the eastern U.S...

Quoting 190. Sandy82579:

This data actually refutes the climatologist's "it's all man's fault now" mantra.
Yes. In exactly the same way that the fact that I'm 6'2" now refutes my mom's repeatedly telling me that I was once a tiny baby. Stellar logic, that!

Gad...
Quoting 191. KoritheMan:



How?
Why not read his post again, and try to figure it out, it's not that hard. He stated that 9 out of 10 happened before man , was pumping all this CO2 into the atmosphere, that sound like a good reason to me.
And a BBC link to the attack in Brussels; have a sick feeling in my gut this morning (after I turned on the TV to check the weather) as my Wife and I went to Brussels and Antwerp for our honeymoon years ago and I remember the Airport from the pics.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35869254
203. JRRP7

Quoting 201. NativeSun:

Why not read his post again, and try to figure it out, it's not that hard. He stated that 9 out of 10 happened before man , was pumping all this CO2 into the atmosphere, that sound like a good reason to me.

Over the course of 4,000 years.
Can expect much the same over the next coming 80 years, because we're pumping all that CO2 into the atmosphere.
All the above is illustration of near future. Which has already begun.
Quoting 192. yonzabam:



We've heard it all before. Ad nauseum, and then some. Because climate change happened naturally in the past, it's not happening today due to man increasing atmospheric CO2 by 43%. That right?

It's such a pathetic argument, that I can only suppose that those who make it are just immature attention seekers, who get some kind of perverse pleasure from being shot down in flames.


I sure hope that your spouse, children, all of your relatives, all of your friends, all of your neighbors, pastor, etc. are all 100% on your side or else telling them they are "immature attention seekers" would be an interesting conversation to listen into.
Quoting 204. cRRKampen:


Over the course of 4,000 years.
Can expect much the same over the next coming 80 years, because we're pumping all that CO2 into the atmosphere.
All the above is illustration of near future. Which has already begun.

Correct:

There is a cautionary tale buried in Earth’s past. Some 56 million years ago, about 10 million years after the dinosaurs went extinct, a massive amount of carbon surged into the atmosphere, triggering a rise in temperature of 5°C. Scientists often look to the so-called Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) as an analog for today’s rising temperatures, because the magnitude of that ancient carbon injection is thought to be comparable to what humans will release if fossil fuel emissions continue unabated for a few more centuries. But just how quickly the injection happened has been debated. Now, a new study suggests that the carbon was vented over 4000 years—making the overall carbon injection rate about 10 times slower than today’s rate. That’s worrisome, the study’s authors say, because the emission rate matters, particularly when it comes to the adaptive response of plants and animals.
Quoting 122. georgevandenberghe:



There have been pauses and accelerations. There used to be reversals but the last one of these was in the late 40s to early 70s. There seems to be a 20 year periodicity in the rate of warming correlated with the similar periodicity of the PDO. The mid 70s to mid 90s were a period of rapid warming, 40s to 70s of cooling and 90s to mid teens slow warming. We are now in rapid warming (apart from the El Nino burst) and this will likely last another 20 years or so.

This periodicity gives opportunity for cherrypicking. Time series beginning in the mid 90s show relatively little warming, series beginning in the late 70s show somewhat above baseline warming. A recent flagarant cherrypick was denier articles stating the radiosonde data began in the early 50s but time series of their means began in the late 70s. This accused the researchers of cherrypicking but in turn the early 50s start point began at the start of a cooling period and did not consider first half of the century warming so the complainers did their own cherrypick.

Cold cherry picking is going to get increasingly hard in the next decades.. the reversals are no longer there.



What's funny about this is that the deniers' basic premise here can be easily disproven with a simple experiment using a pot of water and a stove. :P
Another issue to consider is the fact that Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas and a huge amount of that gas is also getting released into the Arctic as it warms and there is permafrost melt; might be part of the explanation as to why the Arctic has warmed to the tune of about 12 degrees over the last few decades:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-co nsensus-97-per-cent/2015/oct/13/methane-release-fr om-melting-permafrost-could-trigger-dangerous-glob al-warming


While most attention has been given to carbon dioxide, it isn’t the only greenhouse gas that scientists are worried about. Carbon dioxide is the most important human-emitted greenhouse gas, but methane has also increased in the atmosphere and it adds to our concerns. 

While methane is not currently as important as carbon dioxide, it has a hidden danger. Molecule for molecule, methane traps more heat than carbon dioxide; approximately 30 times more, depending on the time frame under consideration. However, because methane is present in much smaller concentrations (compared to carbon dioxide), its aggregate effect is less.

But what has scientists focusing on methane is the way it is released into the atmosphere. Unlike carbon dioxide, which is emitted primarily through burning of fossil fuels, methane has a large natural emission component. This natural emission is from warming permafrost in the northern latitudes. Permafrost is permanently frozen ground. Much of the permafrost is undisturbed by bacterial decomposition. 

Quoting 208. weathermanwannabe:

Another issue to consider is the fact that Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas and a huge amount of that gas is also getting released into the Arctic as it warms and there is permafrost melt; might be part of the explanation as to why the Arctic has warmed to the tune of about 12 degrees over the last few decades:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-co nsensus-97-per-cent/2015/oct/13/methane-release-fr om-melting-permafrost-could-trigger-dangerous-glob al-warming


While most attention has been given to carbon dioxide, it isn’t the only greenhouse gas that scientists are worried about. Carbon dioxide is the most important human-emitted greenhouse gas, but methane has also increased in the atmosphere and it adds to our concerns. 

While methane is not currently as important as carbon dioxide, it has a hidden danger. Molecule for molecule, methane traps more heat than carbon dioxide; approximately 30 times more, depending on the time frame under consideration. However, because methane is present in much smaller concentrations (compared to carbon dioxide), its aggregate effect is less.

But what has scientists focusing on methane is the way it is released into the atmosphere. Unlike carbon dioxide, which is emitted primarily through burning of fossil fuels, methane has a large natural emission component. This natural emission is from warming permafrost in the northern latitudes. Permafrost is permanently frozen ground. Much of the permafrost is undisturbed by bacterial decomposition. 

Good thing it has a rather brief half life. Methane will increase rapidly, and inducing even more warming in the future.
Quoting 135. plantmoretrees:

I just feel like mentioning again that part of the problem is there are too many people. In "Collapse" by Jarrod Dimond a common theme is populations growing too large for the environment, thus making them more suceptable to environmental catastrophe.


Life expands to consume all resources until it either reaches equilibrium or collapse. During the "good times", populations expand. But if something drastic happens, something faster than life can adapt to, then drastic reductions (or extinctions) take place.

Before the modern era, we had no way to know that those "good times" would end. So empires would grow and continue on as if everything would stay that way forever. Then something like a drought happens and turns the whole thing to dust. From various events around the world, it still happens today.

Now we can predict that things are changing and will continue to change. We don't really have ignorance as any excuse anymore, and only an idiot would think we have the infrastructure/technology to deal with the events that caused these civilizations to collapse. A 20 year drought in the US midwest? Yeah, that wouldn't cause any problems.

So now we can use a common refrain from The Denier Bible, chapter 1, verse 20: "It's happened before." Yes, it has. And it will happen again. The question is, are we prepared and/or capable of handling it? The answer to that question is currently a resounding no.
Here is the skinny on current permafrost melt in Alaska: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-34540 414

Prof Romanovsky says that the current evidence indicates that in parts of Alaska, around Prudhoe Bay on the North Slope, the permafrost will not just warm up but will thaw by about 2070-80.

"It was assumed it would be stable for this century but it seems that's not true any more," he told BBC News.

Quoting 179. Gearsts:

Dream -NAO that won't happen.

It could, but the Nino still is having a large effect...
Quoting 190. Sandy82579:

It would be important to note that 9 of the 10 droughts cited above occurred long before man had the ability to influence the climate in any way. There was no industrialization and extremely low population numbers compared to now.

This data actually refutes the climatologist's "it's all man's fault now" mantra.


Is this what our school systems are producing these days?
March 23, 2016 — Penumbral Lunar Eclipse
Link
Quoting 170. Jedkins01:



The vast majority of which comes from the U.S., we spend and use military like we are a global empire, issuing no fly zones, sanctions, and invading nations that are no threat to us in the name of the "war on terror(which creates more terrorism)".
Can you imagine if Russia or China behaved how we do? We would have called for a war invasion ages ago, and would have declared such as tyranny. Interesting how if it's the other guys, it's tyranny, but as long as its Murica' it's our "moral patriot duty to spread freedom and democracy"

Now, I realize we still need a sturdy military, because there will always be evil, but our military just massively dwarfs everyone else in size and capability. If we ever face another world war threat like WWII, then sure, ramp up the military size. But we need to head home and reduce the military size, and use it only for defense.

Last I checked, it's not legal or ethical for me go around shooting people with my personal guns in the name of democracy and war on terror when there is no home threat, so let's not due so with military.
Imagine if we cut the massive debt, decentralized government power, and increased a focus on building unity, community, and a sustainable future. Something tells me we'd be hearing less about trump riots, mass killing sprees, and class warfare.

Our future is unstable, and unsure, and it will surely fail if we remain divided, but is absolutely sustainable if we work together as a loving community.

A couple of facts I've read over the years that blow my mind. These numbers are from June 6th 2014,

"The U.S. Navy has 288 battle force ships, of which typically a third are underway at any given time. The U.S. Navy has 10 aircraft carriers, nine amphibious assault ships, 22 cruisers, 62 destroyers, 17 frigates and 72 submarines. In addition to ships, the U.S. Navy has 3,700 aircraft, making it the second largest air force in the world. At 323,000 active and 109,000 personnel, it is also the largest navy in terms of manpower.

What makes the U.S. Navy stand out the most is its 10 aircraft carriers—more than the rest of the world put together. Not only are there more of them, they’re also much bigger: a single Nimitz-class aircraft carrier can carry twice as many planes (72) as the next largest foreign carrier."


The bolded line always makes me stop and think. The largest air force in the world is the United States Air Force. The second largest is the United States Navy.

Source
Quoting 213. Xyrus2000:



Is this what our school systems are producing these days?


Yes, people who learned so much that they are singlehandedly able to refute entire scientific disciplines at a single bound. If that's not a great educational system, then I don't know what is.
Quoting 201. NativeSun:

Why not read his post again, and try to figure it out, it's not that hard. He stated that 9 out of 10 happened before man , was pumping all this CO2 into the atmosphere, that sound like a good reason to me.


Yes, the very old and very tired "it's happened before argument". "To infer that humans can't be behind today's climate change because climate changed before humans is bad reasoning (a non-sequitur)." Link
Quoting 217. Naga5000:



Yes, the very old and very tired "it's happened before argument". "To infer that humans can't be behind today's climate change because climate changed before humans is bad reasoning (a non-sequitur)." Link


nope...it's not manmade.......not at all...no way no how.....can't possible be by man...man made my butt.......only a fool would think it's manmade......manmade robbing my pocketbook......manmade by liberals trying to tax me to death...manmade lie.......

Quoting 218. ricderr:



nope...it's not manmade.......not at all...no way no how.....can't possible be by man...man made my butt.......only a fool would think it's manmade......manmade robbing my pocketbook......manmade by liberals trying to tax me to death...manmade lie.......




You know what is interesting is that when I was younger there was a lot of talk about how we are polluting the air and the environment and everyone pretty much agreed. Somehow it got lost when the transition was made from pollution to co2 and global warming.
Its quite this morning. Not sure if anyone posted this..Young girl paints million dollar spiritual images...Link
Quoting 190. Sandy82579:

It would be important to note that 9 of the 10 droughts cited above occurred long before man had the ability to influence the climate in any way. There was no industrialization and extremely low population numbers compared to now.

This data actually refutes the climatologist's "it's all man's fault now" mantra.


I hear this mentality constantly now that it's irrefutable that global temperatures are increasing "it happened before without us, so it means what's happening now can't be because of us".

Do you use this same mentality in all aspects of your life?

Well forest fires happened before naturally, so no forest fires that happen now can be caused by men.

Well animal species have gone extinct in the past, so no extinctions can be caused by men.

Well this river used to flood before this city was built, so any flooding now surely can't be caused by the walls and levies we built around the river.

You people are running out of arguments, and while you run out of arguments, WE run out of time.

There is a liberal agenda, and that agenda is to save the world for everyone, I'm sorry you don't approve of our agenda.
Quoting 213. Xyrus2000:



Is this what our school systems are producing these days?

Hello Xyrus....It is not always the school or schools that are responsible for the uninformed or the ignorant..Some just argue because they enjoy it thoroughly...The attention feeds there needs...
Quoting 219. Bucsboltsfan:



You know what is interesting is that when I was younger there was a lot of talk about how we are polluting the air and the environment and everyone pretty much agreed. Somehow it got lost when the transition was made from pollution to co2 and global warming.


I suspect that this would be due to the fact that CO2 is odorless and colorless. Many of the pollutants are immediately visible and have a noticeable smell to them. Were CO2 to be visible to the unaided eye and detectable by the olfactory nerves then it is quite likely that the demands to decrease CO2 releases would rise dramatically.
Quoting 223. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I suspect that this would be due to the fact that CO2 is odorless and colorless. Many of the pollutants are immediately visible and have a noticeable smell to them. Were CO2 to be visible to the unaided eye and detectable by the olfactory nerves then it is quite likely that the demands to decrease CO2 releases would rise dramatically.


I think you are right and it wasn't a political issue then.
If you could snap your finger's and "dye" carbon emissions as they proliferate into the atmosphere (including out of the tailpipe of your car) people would see red everywhere in the sky and demand action/a response as to what is happening; great point made below that smokestacks and acid rain were huge concerns in 60's and 70's as pollution that we could see. Problem is you have to dig deeper than that and when the gasses are not visible to the naked eye, you have to rely on scientific measurements to figure out what is actually going on. Of course however, out of sight out of mind for many of the masses.
Correction to my comment below, given the reference to the 60's and 70's; purple dye for the Purple Haze look........

Quoting 120. tiggerhurricanes2001:



I agree, but i knew CSU would say that. They'll probably go with something like 10,5,2. I don't really trust the April Forecast due to the Spring Predictability Barrier. We're likely o be in a much DIFFERENT ENSO state by June, so I'm looking more forward to NOAA's late may forecast, CSU'S June 1st, and TSR June 1st forecast. BTW CSU'S early forecast will be issued on April 14th, and June 1sr. TSR April 5th.


This is a game I prefer not to play. I'll wait to see what conditions are like in July and anticipate accordingly. "Plan accordingly" is unwise, anyone in a hurricane prone area (yep DC is) should plan for the possibility even if a low activity year is expected.
Quoting 218. ricderr:



nope...it's not manmade.......not at all...no way no how.....can't possible be by man...man made my butt.......only a fool would think it's manmade......manmade robbing my pocketbook......manmade by liberals trying to tax me to death...manmade lie.......


Time to switch to the decaf.
Quoting 226. weathermanwannabe:

Correction to my comment below, given the reference to the 60's and 70's; purple dye for the Purple Haze look........





Jimmy just smiled with that comment. :)
Quoting 219. Bucsboltsfan:



You know what is interesting is that when I was younger there was a lot of talk about how we are polluting the air and the environment and everyone pretty much agreed. Somehow it got lost when the transition was made from pollution to co2 and global warming.

I did a research paper in 1970 for a sociology class, in which I pointed out the effects of pollution and population explosions. It was well researched and the teacher gave me an "A" for effort, but denied the assertion that the population exploding would lead to trouble, and that we humans were big enough to cause significant harm to the world. We asked the whole classroom what they thought, and they all disagreed with my conclusions. Every one.
Timing is everything, and I was ahead of my time. Later people began to agree that we were polluting too much, and mitigation efforts began. We cleaned-up the rivers and the air after the EPA was established that same year. Earlier that year there was a river in Cleveland that caught fire! There is a lag time between realizing what we've done, and realizing what to do about it.
Quoting 225. weathermanwannabe:

If you could snap your finger's and "dye" carbon emissions as they proliferate into the atmosphere (including out of the tailpipe of your car) people would see red everywhere in the sky and demand action/a response as to what is happening; great point made below that smokestacks and acid rain were huge concerns in 60's and 70's as pollution that we could see. Problem is you have to dig deeper than that and when the gasses are not visible to the naked eye, you have to rely on scientific measurements to figure out what is actually going on. Of course however, out of sight out of mind for many of the masses.


I agree but the other evidence (results) are there. Maybe we can't physically see co2 but what is happening to our planet is real.
Quoting 219. Bucsboltsfan:



You know what is interesting is that when I was younger there was a lot of talk about how we are polluting the air and the environment and everyone pretty much agreed. Somehow it got lost when the transition was made from pollution to co2 and global warming.


Not lost in translation. Money and greed.

Should post a picture of Chernobyl. A bit of man-made disaster there.
Quoting 230. ChiThom:


I did a research paper in 1970 for a sociology class, in which I pointed out the effects of pollution and population explosions. It was well researched and the teacher gave me an "A" for effort, but denied the assertion that the population exploding would lead to trouble, and that we humans were big enough to cause significant harm to the world. We asked the whole classroom what they thought, and they all disagreed with my conclusions. Every one.
Timing is everything, and I was ahead of my time. Later people began to agree that we were polluting too much, and mitigation efforts began. We cleaned-up the rivers and the air after the EPA was established that same year. Earlier that year there was a river in Cleveland that caught fire! There is a lag time between realizing what we've done, and realizing what to do about it.



Its verbiage (highlighted) in posts like this that I expect sar to pick up and post on. I believe he was in Ohio at this time and probably would have detailed stories.

Still hoping that he pops in again soon. Really worried about him

Quoting 219. Bucsboltsfan:



You know what is interesting is that when I was younger there was a lot of talk about how we are polluting the air and the environment and everyone pretty much agreed. Somehow it got lost when the transition was made from pollution to co2 and global warming.

It wasn't lost, it was purposely buried by the oil and gas industry.  The billions they have spent on spreading misinformation is the root cause of the head in the sand syndrome we see everywhere in media, gov't and by *some bloggers here on our beloved WEATHER BLOG.  
Let me say this: I have yet to read a single drop of credible evidence from any denier anywhere in media let alone on this blog, and I read nearly every blog.
If you don't agree and don't have any data to refute the data presented here, which is overwhelming, go find a denier blog and have at it.  There is where you can throw around conjecture and horse crunch and get plussed and all that.  Here, not so much.  Here you are simply trolling.
Honestly, I know there are some younger kids on here but, with this topic it's not the kids that act up.  I just have no patience for adults who refuse grasp basic science.  If you can't add substance to the conversation - an observation backed up by data - just do what I do:  follow along - read and learn.  If I want nonsense I go read the news.  Politicians have NO business telling NOAA or NASA what to study or spend their money on, especially politicians that are bought and paid for by the oil and gas industry.  Someday soon heads are going to roll for this behavior.  It's treason in my opinion.  That day won't be a celebration for those of us who believe in science.  It will be a sad ending to one of the most embarrassing chapters in American history.  Yes, the destruction of our education system is big.  Not slavery or genocide big, but big enough to endanger the entire planet!  Just look at the election for proof!  Ok, yes I'm done, I've gone to far.  I've said it all....but I haven't said enough...******************
WU community:  Please accept my apology for this rant.  I will banish myself for the rest of the day to cool off.
~~~~~~~~~~~Sunny and warmer today.  Snow (2") melted in about 6 hours yesterday.........I'll enjoy the 60's again tomorrow for my mid week mountain bike ride.


Research integrity: Don't let transparency damage science
Stephan Lewandowsky& Dorothy Bishop


"Transparency has hit the headlines. In the wake of evidence that many research findings are not reproducible1, the scientific community has launched initiatives to increase data sharing, transparency and open critique. As with any new development, there are unintended consequences. Many measures that can improve science2 — shared data, post-publication peer review and public engagement on social media — can be turned against scientists.


Endless information requests, complaints to researchers' universities, online harassment, distortion of scientific findings and even threats of violence: these were all recurring experiences shared by researchers from a broad range of disciplines at a Royal Society-sponsored meeting last year that we organized to explore this topic. Orchestrated and well-funded harassment campaigns against researchers working in climate change and tobacco control are well documented3, 4. Some hard-line opponents to other research, such as that on nuclear fallout, vaccination, chronic fatigue syndrome or genetically modified organisms, although less resourced, have employed identical strategies.

Such attacks place scientists in a difficult position. Good researchers do not turn away when confronted by alternative views. However, their openness can be exploited by opponents who are keen to stall inconvenient research. When people object to science because it challenges their beliefs or jeopardizes their interests, they are rarely committed to informed debate.

The progress of research demands transparency. But as scientists work to boost rigour, they risk making science more vulnerable to attacks. Awareness of tactics is paramount. Here, we describe ways to distinguish scrutiny from harassment."

Great read and relevant to the discussion on Smith's tactics and why it isn't scrutiny, but harassment.
Quoting 66. Naga5000:



First each state has different laws re: Sunshine doctrine. Within those laws, the state can define what exactly is public and what is exempted. Scientific papers have long been judged within the bounds of peer review by other scientists to build of off, challenge, and critique. The notion that a government official can go on a fishing expedition in effort to disparage scientific research and challenge the academic process is fundamentally wrong. The refusal is based on the fact that the request is overly broad, based on false information, would require an obscene amount of time and man power to fulfill, and would require a violation of longly held norms of scientific research. Sullivan has provided material time and again to attempt to get Smith to understand what it is that is happening here with no success. That is a failing of Smith's crusade.



This statement is full of half truths, lies, and misrepresentations. Scientist's whose work Smith touts (i.e. the new work in Nature) have written statements to him saying he is misrepresenting the findings. Smith is not a scientist, not a objective reviewer, and a known climate change denier. The implication you put forth that if NOAA had nothing to hide they would just comply is an often used and incorrect argument based on the old saying "If you have nothing to hide, you ave nothing to fear". Scientists have plenty to fear by complying with such a broad request not supported by any evidence which seeks to undermine the scientific process by ideologically driven individuals. It is an overreach of the powers of subpoena granted to the chair, and an overreach of diligence especially since Smith, a layman, has been briefed multiple times on the science itself.

I do find it interesting that given the nature and obvious scope and implications stated in Smith's request, his sources of funding, and the knowledge generated about the nature of weather and climate over the years that you would sit here and defend his witch hunt.


Exactly why I wanted to post the link to the statement - to see how manipulative the argument is. At some point, people are going to tire of his arguments, when there isn't any credibility left to him or his sources. Kudos to Sullivan.
Who is this Leonard Weinstein character? He supposedly was a Senior Research Fellow at National Institute of Aerospace?
He is all over the internet trying to disprove AGW.
Quoting 225. weathermanwannabe:

If you could snap your finger's and "dye" carbon emissions as they proliferate into the atmosphere (including out of the tailpipe of your car) people would see red everywhere in the sky and demand action/a response as to what is happening; great point made below that smokestacks and acid rain were huge concerns in 60's and 70's as pollution that we could see. Problem is you have to dig deeper than that and when the gasses are not visible to the naked eye, you have to rely on scientific measurements to figure out what is actually going on. Of course however, out of sight out of mind for many of the masses.







Co-worker broke down crying as their loved one is over in Brussels.I hope this isn't anything similar to the Paris attacks.Appreciate every day because tomorrow isn't a guarantee at all.
Red Alert!



ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221557

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

VALID 221700Z - 231200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR AREAS SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL RISK...FROM EASTERN AZ TO WESTERN MO...

...A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALREADY OCCURRING /AS OF 15Z/ ACROSS PARTS
OF NERN NM...SERN CO...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WHERE SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE APPROACHING 20 MPH. A DELAYED RESPONSE IN STRONG
WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AZ AND SRN NM...WITH THE ONSET OF
DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN WIND SPEEDS FROM 17-20Z...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY APPROACHING 30 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

A PLUME OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF CO/NM AND THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...VERY DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING AMIDST A DRY AIR MASS /OBSERVED PW VALUES OF 0.15-0.3 INCH
PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD WIDESPREAD
SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30
MPH...TO SUPPORT EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM FAR
SERN AZ AND SRN NM NEWD INTO THE PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

ELSEWHERE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL RISK AREAS...INCLUDING A SLIGHT EWD/SWD EXPANSION OF
THE CRITICAL RISK OVER W-CNTRL TX AND WRN MO TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS.
Thanx for #236, It just reminded me that I need a couple gals of Milk.


I'm still a growing a better mind.

Quoting 238. Sfloridacat5:

Who is this Leonard Weinstein character? He supposedly was a Senior Research Fellow at National Institute of Aerospace?
He is all over the internet trying to disprove AGW.



He's a retired aeronautical engineer (NASA) who denies the greenhouse effect. A brilliant engineer, he began messing around in the climate change game by posting at known denier websites like noconsensus and wuwt.
Well....tomorrow should be fun.



Quoting 245. LuckySD:

Well....tomorrow should be fun.






#snowforthesnowgod
Tonight we have a Penumbral Lunar Eclipse and the bright object next to the almost Full Moon is Jupiter.

Had a good time with the ol 4.5 inch last night, telescope, my Meade,,and the kids on the block got their first look at the stripes of Jupiter and 4 of its moons too. Was a good evening to share.
Quoting 246. 62901IL:



#snowforthesnowgod
Hah, I'm still trying to will it away in my mind. Was able to go for a nice long walk last night in the beautiful weather, I'm not ready for 6+ inches of snow again.
Quoting 248. LuckySD:

Hah, I'm still trying to will it away in my mind. Was able to go for a nice long walk last night in the beautiful weather, I'm not ready for 6+ inches of snow again.


Try as you might, the Snow God is coming.

Since this storm is not happening in Southern IL, I will not name it.
Quoting 218. ricderr:



nope...it's not manmade.......not at all...no way no how.....can't possible be by man...man made my butt.......only a fool would think it's manmade......manmade robbing my pocketbook......manmade by liberals trying to tax me to death...manmade lie.......


To bad very little of that is CO2, so what's your point.
Excellent blog Dr. Masters! Sobering and anxiety producing. I only hope that the people that really need to read this, do so and are willing to take measures. In the meantime, I keep sharing this information, hoping that it will wake some up! Or should I say, shake some up?
Quoting 250. NativeSun:

To bad very little of that is CO2, so what's your point.

Nah, not even the US education system produces such.
Climate guru James Hansen warns of much worse than expected sea level rise

Former Nasa researcher and father of climate change awareness says melting of ice sheets could cause ‘several meters’ rise in a century, swamping coastal cities.


Arizona Avenue is seen underwater following coastal flooding in Atlantic City, New Jersey, on 24 January 2016. More than 13 million Americans are at risk with a 6ft (1.8 meter) rise in sea level, scientists say.

Oliver Milman in New York
@olliemilman

Tuesday 22 March 2016 00.01 EDT Last modified on Tuesday 22 March 2016 06.35 EDT

The current rate of global warming could raise sea levels by “several meters” over the coming century, rendering most of the world’s coastal cities uninhabitable and helping unleash devastating storms, according to a paper published by James Hansen, the former Nasa scientist who is considered the father of modern climate change awareness.

The research, published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, references past climatic conditions, recent observations and future models to warn the melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets will contribute to a far worse sea level increase than previously thought.

Without a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the global sea level is likely to increase “several meters over a timescale of 50 to 150 years”, the paper states, warning that the Earth’s oceans were six to nine meters higher during the Eemian period – an interglacial phase about 120,000 years ago that was less than 1C warmer than it is today.

Global warming of 2C above pre-industrial times – the world is already halfway to this mark – would be “dangerous” and risk submerging cities, the paper said. A separate study, released in February, warned that New York, London, Rio de Janeiro and Shanghai will be among the cities at risk from flooding by 2100.

Hansen’s research, written with 18 international colleagues, warns that humanity would not be able to properly adapt to such changes, although the paper concedes its conclusions “differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments”.

The IPCC has predicted a sea level rise of up to one meter by 2100, if emissions are not constrained. Hansen, and other scientists, have argued the UN body’s assessment is too conservative as it doesn’t factor in the potential disintegration of the polar ice sheets.

Hansen’s latest work has proved controversial because it was initially published in draft form last July without undergoing a peer review process. Some scientists have questioned the assumptions made by Hansen and the soaring rate of sea level rise envisioned by his research, which has now been peer-reviewed and published.

Michael Mann, a prominent climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, said the revised paper still has the same issues that initially “caused me concern".

“Namely, the projected amounts of meltwater seem … large, and the ocean component of their model doesn’t resolve key wind-driven current systems (e.g. the Gulf Stream) which help transport heat poleward,” Mann said in an email to the Guardian.

“I’m always hesitant to ignore the findings and warnings of James Hansen; he has proven to be so very prescient when it comes to his early prediction about global warming. That having been said, I’m unconvinced that we could see melting rates over the next few decades anywhere near his exponential predictions, and everything else is contingent upon those melting rates being reasonable.”

Hansen was one of the first scientists to push climate change into the public’s consciousness, following a series of appearances before Congress in the 1980s. He retired from his role at Nasa in 2013 and has become increasingly outspoken about the need to slash emissions, criticizing last year’s Paris climate deal as a “fraud” because it didn’t go far enough.

His new research warns that water gushing from melted glaciers is already influencing important ocean circulations near both poles. The added cold water risks “shutting down” the North Atlantic heat circulation, triggering a series of storms similar to Hurricane Sandy, which hobbled New York City in 2012.

“If the ocean continues to accumulate heat and increase melting of marine-terminating ice shelves of Antarctica and Greenland, a point will be reached at which it is impossible to avoid large-scale ice sheet disintegration with sea level rise of at least several meters,” the paper states. “The economic and social cost of losing functionality of all coastal cities is practically incalculable.”

Hansen said the world was “pretty darned close” to the point of no return, warning that emissions need to be cut by about 6% a year in order to stabilize the climate.

“What we are threatening to do to young people is irreversible, it’s irreparable harm,” he said. “This is something they didn’t cause but will be out of their control. Among the top experts, there’s agreement that this is very urgent, we can’t continue on this path hoping that emissions will go down, we have to take actions.”
Hansen reiterated his call for a global tax on carbon, denying that the roles of scientist and advocate for change are conflicted.

“This isn’t advocacy, this is what is needed,” he said. “We are allowing fossil fuel companies to use the atmosphere as a free waste dump. If scientists don’t say it then politicians will tell you what’s needed and that will be based upon politics rather than science. I don’t see any reason to not make the whole story clear, or to draw a line and say ‘I’m not going to step beyond this.’”

Tom Wagner, Nasa’s program scientist for the cryosphere, said Hansen has done an “amazing job” in providing a “provocative” piece of research on sea level rise.

“It’s an interesting paper as it’s one of the few times when all of these different fields have been combined,” he said. “It is at odds with some research from other places. He’s made a great effort to combine the Eemian period to what is happening today, which is hard to do. It’s a tough one.

“We know that our knowledge of ice sheet behavior is imperfect, and this is a paper that really gets into that question. We are narrowing down the error bars all the time.”

Scientists recently expressed alarm at the record heat that has baked the planet in the first few months of 2016, which follows a year that was the warmest on record.
These record temperatures, aided by a strong El Niño event, come as nations appear to be slowing the growth of the greenhouse gas emissions that are causing the excess heat. Recent figures show the world emitted 32.1bn tonnes of carbon dioxide from energy in 2015, on a par with 2014, while accelerating the shift to renewable energy.

Nevertheless, humanity is still pumping out CO2 into the atmosphere at a rate 10 times faster than at any point in the past 66m years, with the resulting sea level rises, extreme weather events, coral bleaching and drought already evidenced around the globe.

Quoting 221. pipelines:



I hear this mentality constantly now that it's irrefutable that global temperatures are increasing "it happened before without us, so it means what's happening now can't be because of us".

Do you use this same mentality in all aspects of your life?

Well forest fires happened before naturally, so no forest fires that happen now can be caused by men.

Well animal species have gone extinct in the past, so no extinctions can be caused by men.

Well this river used to flood before this city was built, so any flooding now surely can't be caused by the walls and levies we built around the river.

You people are running out of arguments, and while you run out of arguments, WE run out of time.

There is a liberal agenda, and that agenda is to save the world for everyone, I'm sorry you don't approve of our agenda.
I'm all for saving the world, it's the only place we have to live as of now. But lets not waste all this time and money on something we cannot totally control, and that is climate change, as their are other factors controlling climate change besides a rise in a minor trace gas that is not all caused by man. Lets spend our time and money on controlling air and water pollution, as we as humans contribute a very, very large portion to the environment on a yearly basis, and we can fix and control the amount of pollutants we dump into the air and water. This will go a long ways in making this a better planet, and hopefully one day in the not to distant future we will develop a product that will substitute fossil fuels, as oil is used to make a lot more important things then gasoline for our cars.
Quoting 219. Bucsboltsfan:



You know what is interesting is that when I was younger there was a lot of talk about how we are polluting the air and the environment and everyone pretty much agreed. Somehow it got lost when the transition was made from pollution to co2 and global warming.
You are totally correct, they are trying to hide the real problem of Air and Water Pollution, and are doing a very good job by using climate change to hide the real problems we can fix and control. Of course that would cause a lot of large corporations big dollars, and God forbid, maybe the stock shares to fall a little.
Quoting 241. KoritheMan:



thisvideohasbeenremovedforviolationofcommunitysta ndards.gif
Maybe one day, the puritans in this country will grow up. Actually the video is kind of funny.
great civilizations fall from within
Quoting 256. NativeSun:

Maybe one day, the puritans in this country will grow up. Actually the video is kind of funny.


I didn't say it wasn't funny. I have a way more vulgar sense of humor than that, so much so that it's hardly blog appropriate. :P

I was just pointing out the fact that what he posted might be mod bait.
What do 9 out of 10 droughts that occurred long before man started pumping CO2 into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels have to due with climate change. These droughts were not caused by CO2, but maybe climate change.
Quoting 254. NativeSun:

I'm all for saving the world, it's the only place we have to live as of now. But lets not waste all this time and money on something we cannot totally control, and that is climate change, as their are other factors controlling climate change besides a rise in a minor trace gas that is not all caused by man. Lets spend our time and money on controlling air and water pollution, as we as humans contribute a very, very large portion to the environment on a yearly basis, and we can fix and control the amount of pollutants we dump into the air and water. This will go a long ways in making this a better planet, and hopefully one day in the not to distant future we will develop a product that will substitute fossil fuels, as oil is used to make a lot more important things then gasoline for our cars.

Sad a lot of jobs in the fossil fuel industry will be axed - but that industry followed your ploy so perhaps there is some justice there.
They could've monopolized the sustainable energy market but decided to try and extinguish it.

400ppm of a 'trace gas' would be 25-30 grams of HCN on an average body weight. Traces, anyone?
Quoting 225. weathermanwannabe:

If you could snap your finger's and "dye" carbon emissions as they proliferate into the atmosphere (including out of the tailpipe of your car) people would see red everywhere in the sky and demand action/a response as to what is happening; great point made below that smokestacks and acid rain were huge concerns in 60's and 70's as pollution that we could see. Problem is you have to dig deeper than that and when the gasses are not visible to the naked eye, you have to rely on scientific measurements to figure out what is actually going on. Of course however, out of sight out of mind for many of the masses.
Here's a video that does a good job of visualizing just how badlywe're mucking things up:



Keep in mind, this is just New York City; the entire planet put together emits roughly 550 times as much as NYC does on its own.

Short: anyone who actually believes that we humans can't possibly affect the climate with our profligate dumping of CO2 is being, at this point, intentionally obtuse.
When will we see the main blog wu pundits post something other than a opinion on others posting?

They NEVER bring any SCIENCE to their Heartland memed rants of incoherent deniability.



Quoting 259. NativeSun:

What do 9 out of 10 droughts that occurred long before man started pumping CO2 into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels have to due with climate change. These droughts were not caused by CO2, but maybe climate change.
See: Fallacy of the Single Cause
Trace Gas?

"Some Examples of Important Small Amounts:
He wasn't driving drunk, he just had a trace of blood alcohol; 800 ppm (0.08%) is the limit in all 50 US states, and limits are lower in most other countries).
Don't worry about your iron deficiency, iron is only 4.4 ppm of your body's atoms (Sterner and Eiser, 2002).
Ireland isn't important; it's only 660 ppm (0.066%) of the world population.
That ibuprofen pill can't do you any good; it's only 3 ppm of your body weight (200 mg in 60 kg person).
The Earth is insignificant, it's only 3 ppm of the mass of the solar system.
Your children can drink that water, it only contains a trace of arsenic (0.01 ppm is the WHO and US EPA limit).
Ozone is only a trace gas: 0.1 ppm is the exposure limit established by the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends an ozone limit of 0.051 ppm.
A few parts per million of ink can turn a bucket of water blue. The color is caused by the absorption of the yellow/red colors from sunlight, leaving the blue. Twice as much ink causes a much stronger color, even though the total amount is still only a trace relative to water. " Link

I'll also add chlorine, a pool is considered balanced at roughly 1-3 ppm of chlorine to stave off algae growth. Another trace amount that seems to have an impact. I would have thought we were beyond these silly talking points as of now.
What the deal is, is that the denialist poster's work from a rolodex, and when they hit the end card, they just flip back to the front.

I should get a graph on it.

Quoting 265. Patrap:

What the deal is, is that the denialist poster's work from a rolodex, and when they hit the end card, they just flip back to the front.

I should get a graph on it.



Any graphs depicting root causes as unassailable singularities..
Naga,
Somehow you missed my (add: almost immediate as is this add) add at 148 re: no more response (add: on this topic.) I am free to respond to comments here, as is ChiTom, who makes the point that s/he is.

ChiTom,
Your assertion I "have a dog in the race" is mistaken. I already stated I do not have a dog in the race. Repeat: I do not have a dog running in the global warming controversies. Some posters here do. Oh yeah, Let's see all your wumails right now! Trump for President! LOL

After going on 11 years posting here, those who know me would tell you I am out for truth, justice and the American way... or Better Logic... or a Tolerant and Balanced way of seeing life and humanity. I bring out other points of view I believe deserve consideration in this community and in U.S. society. Both have become places where the vast majority seem they do not stop and think. Rather, they blindly accept, or they just plain don't give a rat's bottom about anything except themselves and their own goals.

Thank you for your response.
quote added 1:08 pm cdt;
Quoting 157. ChiThom:


I'm not a scientist either, but I refute his illegitimate request. The context is enough. His past behavior provides a context. And, barefoot, I don't have a dog in this race as you obviously do, and you can't stop me from saying this. :-p
Quoting 264. Naga5000:

Trace Gas?

"Some Examples of Important Small Amounts:
He wasn't driving drunk, he just had a trace of blood alcohol; 800 ppm (0.08%) is the limit in all 50 US states, and limits are lower in most other countries).
Don't worry about your iron deficiency, iron is only 4.4 ppm of your body's atoms (Sterner and Eiser, 2002).
Ireland isn't important; it's only 660 ppm (0.066%) of the world population.
That ibuprofen pill can't do you any good; it's only 3 ppm of your body weight (200 mg in 60 kg person).
The Earth is insignificant, it's only 3 ppm of the mass of the solar system.
Your children can drink that water, it only contains a trace of arsenic (0.01 ppm is the WHO and US EPA limit).
Ozone is only a trace gas: 0.1 ppm is the exposure limit established by the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends an ozone limit of 0.051 ppm.
A few parts per million of ink can turn a bucket of water blue. The color is caused by the absorption of the yellow/red colors from sunlight, leaving the blue. Twice as much ink causes a much stronger color, even though the total amount is still only a trace relative to water. " Link

I'll also add chlorine, a pool is considered balanced at roughly 1-3 ppm of chlorine to stave off algae growth. Another trace amount that seems to have an impact. I would have thought we were beyond these silly talking points as of now.


A malfunctioning septic tank from a typhoid carrier leaks into a river but is diluted to trace levels by the river volume so that water is safe to drink right??

(On the other hand, like dogs the world over, my dogs seem to think the trace rule applies to indoor plumbing)


Quoting 266. cRRKampen:


Any graphs depicting root causes as unassailable singularities..


(In best Alex Trebek voice) "Oohhh, and u were so close too.

The Singularity
By: Patrap , 10:03 AM CDT on June 20, 2013




Quoting 267. Barefootontherocks:

Naga,
Somehow you missed my add at 148 re: no more response (add: on this topic.) I am free to respond to comments here, as is ChiTom, who makes the point that s/he is.

ChiTom,
Your assertion I "have a dog in the race" is mistaken. I already stated I do not have a dog in the race. Repeat: I do not have a dog running in the global warming controversies. Some posters here do. Oh yeah, Let's see all your wumails right now! Trump for President! LOL

After going on 11 years posting here, those who know me would tell you I am out for truth, justice and the American way... or Better Logic... or a Tolerant and Balanced way of seeing life and humanity. I bring out other points of view I believe deserve consideration in this community and in U.S. society. Both have become places where the vast majority seem they do not stop and think. Rather, they blindly accept, or they just plain don't give a rat's bottom about anything except themselves and their own goals.

Thank you for your response.


Continuing to appeal to your own authority and righteousness while dismissing others as biased doesn't have the effect you think it does. You have no interest in truth, just contrarian for contrarian's sake as evidenced by your continued inability to acknowledge the reality of the situation and the incessant attacks on science with no sound justification or evidence besides your own authority. It's tautological at best.
The 2016 National Hurricane Conference is in progress this week in Orlando; here is the link to the event;

http://hurricanemeeting.com/daily-schedule/
Dr. Klotzbach is currently presenting on the 2016 prediction methodology (repeat from yesterday's session).
Quoting 270. Naga5000:



Continuing to appeal to your own authority and righteousness while dismissing others as biased doesn't have the effect you think it does. You have no interest in truth, just contrarian for contrarian's sake as evidenced by your continued inability to acknowledge the reality of the situation and the incessant attacks on science with no sound justification or evidence besides your own authority. It's tautological at best.
LPLPL. And yes, there are posters here who are biased - both ways. I did not single out one "side" or "the other," not in my mind, and not in my comment to ChiTom and not in my mind when I wrote tcomment 267. Attack science? I might correct something (with proof) and/or raise a question worth thinking about. Neither of which is an attack on science. I feel your stated opinion of me is an attempt to draw me across the line for a bicker-ban, so I will not attack you back. Instead...
'Bye, now, Naga. Have a nice day.
Again, don't miss my almost immediate add for clarity (267) ;)
Quoting 236. BaltimoreBrian:

Time to throw more heat than light on the situation:



Eric Webb's knowledge and professionalism would win the ratings war with Roxana Vancea. True of False?

Complete the following sentence "If it ------ it leads!"

Describe Roxana Vancea's meteorological training after reading this article.

Extra credit: Describe the equation of state for the bodies in motion in the video above.


building low level rtn flow

storm warning


Quoting 165. DCSwithunderscores:



Are you suggesting that quote mining is okay, or are you suggesting that the emails would not be used for quote mining?
The later. The audit could be set up so they would not be.
Thanks for a really eye-opening article; especially about modern-day Syria. As a retired academic, I also appreciate the citations. They make it a lot harder for the climate-change deniers to refute (although they will anyway). I hope the rest of us can get enough action going in time to keep from making this poor planet uninhabitable.
Quoting 156. riverat544:


All that the scientists have to say on the subject is in their published results. Their internal communications including email are irrelevant to what they published.

Suppose some scientist played devils advocate to make sure some area was thoroughly explored. Lamar Smith is going to take that quote and try to make something out of it that it never was.
An unbiased audit would keep the context and prevent that.
Kris Kristofferson: To Beat the Devil
Quoting 171. Jedkins01:



You're right, there was a time when I didn't, and it was purely because I never looked into the issue with an honest mindset. The tricky thing about being human sometimes though, is that we can be our own worst enemy. We are great at lying to ourselves if it means insisting on wanting to believe something for whatever purpose we want such to serve for our gain. There are many other examples of this, but I've changed my position on some things significantly over the years, and while some may call that flip flopping, I'm thankful for my some of my dramatic changes in perspective, and find it funny thinking how I once thought to the contrary.

Given that, while showing people evidence and facts are important, presenting them properly with respect to others is the only way to go. Just because people can believe ridiculous things, it doesn't make that person stupid. Humans are complex, and the reasons for what people believe is also complicated, and is shaped by their personality plus experiences and thought processes. Given that, when someone is stubborn against the obvious, I think the best thing we can do is give them what we know, but know that we can't choose for people. Shoving things down the throat is not only unkind and disrespectful, but it won't help ever from what I've seen. If anything, it tends to make people go farther away from what one is trying to prove.

There is plenty of evidence for human causes warming, and for those who have heard the message, there won't be any change as long as people don't want to know.

Generall speaking, we as people only hear what we want to hear, and that's true for all of us, so we have to be weary and not be so certain we are truth seekers, because we might be just the opposite. Sometimes the truth is in plain sight, and we refuse it, for a number of different reasons, depending on who we are.
Quoting 274. JohnLonergan:






Hey! I understand some of that!
281. OKsky
Quoting 278. Barefootontherocks:

An unbiased audit would keep the context and prevent that.



Snooping through private emails is always the last step of the scientific process. I learned that in my home school science book right after the part about Noah.
Quoting 278. Barefootontherocks:

An unbiased audit would keep the context and prevent that.


i'm sure Smith would totes pinky swear on that.
Quoting 278. Barefootontherocks:

An unbiased audit would keep the context and prevent that.


What unimpeachable scientists will Smith hire to do the unbiased audit? (sarcasm)
Quoting 283. ChiThom:



What unimpeachable scientists will Smith hire to do the unbiased audit? (sarcasm)


Quoting 267. Barefootontherocks
After going on 11 years posting here, those who know me would tell you I am out for truth, justice and the American way... or Better Logic... or a Tolerant and Balanced way of seeing life and humanity. I bring out other points of view I believe deserve consideration in this community and in U.S. society. Both have become places where the vast majority seem they do not stop and think. Rather, they blindly accept, or they just plain don't give a rat's bottom about anything except themselves and their own goals.

Thank you for your response.


Barefootontherocks, just because you disagreed with ScottLincoln's point of view (he is a real meteorologist with the NWS and has been a member of wunderground 14 years), you posted on Dr. Masters' blog his NWS office's snail mail address, phone number, and email address and told people to contact his office to get him fired.

You are not out for "truth, justice and the American way". I'll let others make a slogan to describe your actions.
He should have been banned permanently.
Excellent article, thank you Dr. masters
Quoting 278. Barefootontherocks:

An unbiased audit would keep the context and prevent that.


Let's see Watts e-mails first, and his financial statements.
Dry wind is really blowing across Oklahoma. Hopefully there are no major fires with this combination of low humidity and gusty winds.
Unbiased audit? I think we call that a double blind peer review.
Thoughts and prayers to those in the Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest

Quoting 274. JohnLonergan:






Let's normalize it to find the probability of me being with the weather woman at some point in the future:



I figure I'll just keep throwing this out there, maybe as much as pat's hydra pictures, for all the nuclear science deniers.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/nuclear -power-is-the-greenest-option-say-top-scientists-9 955997.html
Quoting 292. win1gamegiantsplease:

Hoofdstedelijk Gewest




Did you spell that right?
295. OKsky
Quoting 290. Sfloridacat5:

Dry wind is really blowing across Oklahoma. Hopefully there are no major fires with this combination of low humidity and gusty winds.



It is super windy out here. I thought my little car was going to turn into a box kite during my lunch break.
Somewhere there's a bag of hammers that bring more to this topic than every denier comment I have read since B-17 calved of Antarctica 16 years ago.
Quoting 294. 62901IL:



Did you spell that right?


Looks right to me, believe it or not it's phonetic!
Quoting 297. win1gamegiantsplease:



Looks right to me, believe it or not it's phonetic!


Okay...how is it pronounced?
Quoting 282. schwankmoe:



i'm sure Smith would totes pinky swear on that.
Quoting 283. ChiThom:



What unimpeachable scientists will Smith hire to do the unbiased audit? (sarcasm)


I would just like to remind everyone that the data and methods in question are freely available to "audit" at will. :)
The (PETM) study has garnered much attention. The Nat. Geo, article about it brings up a rather interesting point. This isn't the first one to reach the same conclusion, from a completely different core sample, this one from New Jersey the last from Norway-


The new estimate of the rate of carbon release at the PETM onset is similar to that found in 2011 by a team led by Pennsylvania State University. The Penn State group based their sediment analysis on what is known as an "age model;" they dated a sediment core sample drilled in Norway based on physicists' recreation of the rhythms of Earth's orbit around the sun. Slight changes in that orbit leave a pattern of iron concentrations in the sediment.

Lee Kump, head of geosciences at Penn State, said he was "heartened" that the new approach arrived at numbers in line with his team's estimates, although he noted both papers come to the same grim conclusion.


Link
Strong -AMO taking shape across the Atlantic could mean this year's Hurricane Season might be a slow one. Waters are really cooling off Africa and this cooling is beginning to extend across the MDR. Also notice El-Nino still looking healthy. I have to say its very possible the CFSv2 is going to be right with showing El-Nino this Fall especially considering how high the PDO has been lately. High PDO's almost never happen in La-Nina.

World Meteorological Organization — Dangerous Climate Future Has Arrived

The alarming rate of change we are now witnessing in our climate as a result of greenhouse gas emissions is unprecedented in modern records. — Petteri Taalas, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization

Link
Quoting 298. 62901IL:



Okay...how is it pronounced?


Hoafd-STAY-de-luck xe-VEST

oa as in "loaf of bread", the -lijk ending is more like a schwa, and the x is like a gutteral ch in German/Scottish English, all caps where the stress is
Quoting 303. win1gamegiantsplease:



Hoafd-STAY-de-luck xe-VEST

oa as in "loaf of bread", the -lijk ending is more like a schwa, and the x is like a gutteral ch in German/Scottish English, all caps where the stress is


Wow! What a mouthful!
Quoting 295. OKsky:



It is super windy out here. I thought my little car was going to turn into a box kite during my lunch break.

Yeah I bet. The wind gusted to 43 mph a little earlier in OKC. It's currently gusting to 39 mph.
I lived in Oklahoma and had a Chevy Pickup Truck. On real windy days my truck had a top speed of about 60 mph. It had the aerodynamics of a brick.


Quoting 303. win1gamegiantsplease:



Hoafd-STAY-de-luck xe-VEST

oa as in "loaf of bread", the -lijk ending is more like a schwa, and the x is like a gutteral ch in German/Scottish English, all caps where the stress is


That explanation is giving me flashbacks of when I taught reading.
Not worth arguing with the deniers as to global warming anymore (on this blog) and better to just ignore them when they post on here to try to ruffle feathers IMHO. This is a science based Blog and the facts are starting to become quite obvious to most people (you would think) particularly as regard to just the past few months. When you are breaking global heat records, and particularly in the Northern Hemisphere between December 2015 and now documented into February 2016, in the dead of the Northern Hemisphere Winter, I don't know what more it would take for someone to realize that the majority of the climate scientists (and not politicians) are correct.

I am just going to post "easy to understand" charts from now on:



This coming snow storm must have the local NWS pretty concerned as they've already upgraded our area from a Winter Storm Watch to a Warning starting tomorrow morning at 10 AM. I hope people are paying attention even if the snow will be short lived.

12z data continues to advertise the potential for a significant
mesoscale banding event over parts of south central and eastern South Dakota
on Wednesday. GFS/NAM have both shifted the western edge of this
band slightly to the west this morning...but there is no doubt
influence of drier surface high pressure over southern Canada will
lead to a sharp western snow gradient. The focus for the heaviest
snowfall amounts may take place over a smaller area from Mitchell
to Vermillion and westward to Lake Andes....but further NE...the
narrowing of the moderate snow band is likely. There are still
hints of instability aloft...so would not rule out convectively
enhanced snows.


Does convectively enhanced snows mean thunder snow?! Have never personally experienced thunder snow but from what I've heard it's pretty impressive.
As to the topic of this post -

I am hearten to see that paleoclimate studies , and archeology are beginning to weave a clearer picture of the past. And that all of that is being woven into a clearer global picture. That is to say, when the people abandoned Mesa Verde, what was going on in China, the Mid-East, Europe ?

The dendrology at Meas Verde shows a drought of over 40 years being in 1276. But it had been slowly drying for sometime before that.


Having been around the 4 corners , that collapse is of interest to me. Before it happened those people transported over 50,000 ponderosa pine logs over 50 miles to roof the buildings at Chaco Canyon, all with out the aid of the wheel. To say that they were smart and tough is a serious understatement. They all just didn't walk to Santa Fe.

My personal thinking is that some of them formed the wandering band that became the germ of the Aztecs. There were parrot feathers found at Chaco , so they certainly knew about the south before their climate turned on them.

At any rate, I for one love this post by Dr. Masters. I learned a great deal.

As for the new name -

Masters and Henson Where Climate Meets Weather.



Quoting 301. StormTrackerScott:

Strong -AMO taking shape across the Atlantic could mean this year's Hurricane Season might be a slow one. Waters are really cooling off Africa and this cooling is beginning to extend across the MDR. Also notice El-Nino still looking healthy. I have to say its very possible the CFSv2 is going to be right with showing El-Nino this Fall especially considering how high the PDO has been lately. High PDO's almost never happen in La-Nina.




Could this be a temporary negative spike or has the AMO flipped?
As for the new name -

Masters and Henson Where Climate Meets Weather.
(snip) (posted by barefootontherocks) I am free to respond to comments here, as is ChiTom, who makes the point that s/he is.

ChiTom,
Your assertion I "have a dog in the race" is mistaken. I already stated I do not have a dog in the race. Repeat: I do not have a dog running in the global warming controversies. Some posters here do. (snip)

barefoot, I was only paraphrasing your own words so you could see how self-serving that was. Heck, I don't even have a dog, let alone a race. I'm just an observer. But your insistence on support of Smith's overreaching demands betrays a tendency to side with an obvious denier. That's what gets my hair up. Smith's bullying of climate scientists is inappropriate for someone of his stature.
That's the last thing I'll say about it. Don't bother to respond.

Quoting 284. Patrap:







It's a shame that I can only plus that once.
Quoting 301. StormTrackerScott:

Strong -AMO taking shape across the Atlantic could mean this year's Hurricane Season might be a slow one. Waters are really cooling off Africa and this cooling is beginning to extend across the MDR. Also notice El-Nino still looking healthy. I have to say its very possible the CFSv2 is going to be right with showing El-Nino this Fall especially considering how high the PDO has been lately. High PDO's almost never happen in La-Nina.


You're right. It seems apparent that this El Nino won't go quietly into the night. In fact it's not going away at all.
Quoting 310. fabian171017:



Could this be a temporary negative spike or has the AMO flipped?
Is possible but at the moment the AMO is more neutral.
Quoting 301. StormTrackerScott:

Strong -AMO taking shape across the Atlantic could mean this year's Hurricane Season might be a slow one. Waters are really cooling off Africa and this cooling is beginning to extend across the MDR. Also notice El-Nino still looking healthy. I have to say its very possible the CFSv2 is going to be right with showing El-Nino this Fall especially considering how high the PDO has been lately. High PDO's almost never happen in La-Nina.



CFS clearly an outlier at this point. I don't buy it. I see no support for another el nino episode.
Quoting 315. Llamaluvr:

You're right. It seems apparent that this El Nino won't go quietly into the night. In fact it's not going away at all.

Your opinion, I highly doubt it. CFS is a HUGE OUTLIER. This el nino is half as strong as it ever was.
Quoting 310. fabian171017:



Could this be a temporary negative spike or has the AMO flipped?

Likely a temporary spike. It kinda happened in 2014, but transitioned to a more +AMO by about August. Like Gearsts said, likely neutral currently.
Quoting 311. RobertWC:

As for the new name -

Masters and Henson Where Climate Meets Weather.

That's the best one yet!!!
Quoting 317. tiggerhurricanes2001:


CFS clearly an outlier at this point. I don't buy it. I see no support for another el nino episode.
Your opinion, I highly doubt it. CFS is a HUGE OUTLIER. This el nino is half as strong as it ever was.
Likely a temporary spike. It kinda happened in 2014, but transitioned to a more +AMO by about August. Like Gearsts said, likely neutral currently.
It's not just my opinion, it's Scott's too, and this man knows his El Nino !!!!
Quoting 319. Llamaluvr:

It's not just my opinion, it's Scott's too, and this man knows his El Nino !!!!



I would also suggest that you occasionally check the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) for their latest ENSO discussion.
Link
Link
Quoting 320. Sfloridacat5:




I would also suggest that you occasionally check the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) for their latest ENSO discussion.
Link
LinkThank you. The provided information is interesting, but when someone has a real grasp of the subject and a proven track record you have to take that in account too!
   Just heard on the news that former Toronto Mayor Rob Ford has died, R.I.P.
Quoting 323. PedleyCA:

   Just heard on the news that former Toronto Mayor Rob Ford has died, R.I.P.

it happen this morning the passing
Freezing rain warning in effect for:
%u2022City of Toronto

A significant freezing rain event will begin Wednesday evening.

A low pressure system will give periods of snow or ice pellets to the region through the day Wednesday. Then as the cold air continues to move into the regions from the northeast the precipitation will change over to freezing rain Wednesday night and continue until Thursday morning. Ice accretion on untreated surfaces of 5 to 10 millimetres is possible by Thursday morning. Slippery conditions may cause significant impact on transportation. There may also be power outages. Areas from Toronto westward will see the freezing rain change to rain Thursday morning. East of Toronto the freezing rain will end later in the day on Thursday.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots will become icy, slippery and hazardous. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas. Beware of branches or electrical wires that could break under the weight of ice. Utility outages may occur. Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight. For information on emergency plans and kits go to http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 319. Llamaluvr:

It's not just my opinion, it's Scott's too, and this man knows his El Nino !!!!


Lol
I would not be surprised if they experts call for an above average 2016 hurricane season, with possible 15-17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2-4 majors. Details to follow.......
Quoting 320. Sfloridacat5:




I would also suggest that you occasionally check the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) for their latest ENSO discussion.
Link
Link


As usual, some people have a hard time to understand and accept real facts. EL NINO is weakening, yes weakening!! :)
Quoting 327. Grothar:

I would not be surprised if they experts call for an above average 2016 hurricane season, with possible 15-17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2-4 majors. Details to follow.......
I was thinking 16 to 20 myself but still got a month and a bit too go
Quoting 319. Llamaluvr:

It's not just my opinion, it's Scott's too, and this man knows his El Nino !!!!



LOL. NOT
temps off Africa are already warmed to 29 degrees capable of storm development

Quoting 329. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I was thinking 16 to 20 myself but still got a month and a bit too go


I'm just speaking from 11,000 years experience. Two important mitigating factors will be the SST's and the westerlies. Sometimes it takes the atmosphere a little time to catch up with a declining el Nino.
and we already have number 1 so we have 15 too 19 to go
Quoting 328. CaribBoy:



As usual, some people have a hard time to understand and accept real facts. EL NINO is weakening, yes weakening!! :)



So true am with you 100%
Here's my March forecast numbers:
Atlantic - 16/7/3
East Pacific - 13/7/2

Both already have one hurricane total.

I think the Pacific will start out fast, with an early C3-C4 storm in June. However, as La Nina develops, the season should rapidly wind down. Atlantic may follow the opposite trend, with activity peaking in late September/early October.
KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:16 PM GMT on March 22, 2016

Faster and faster, pales with PETM study today. By my numbers we are 10 times faster than the PETM.
And we did it in just 200 years , the PETM took 4,000 years.

We need a better phrase. Something like : "Oh my God ................................................ "


Buckle your chin strap.
Quoting 340. HurricaneFan:

Here's my March forecast numbers:
Atlantic - 16/7/3
East Pacific - 13/7/2

Both already have one hurricane total.

I think the Pacific will start out fast, with an early C3-C4 storm in June. However, as La Nina develops, the season should rapidly wind down. Atlantic may follow the opposite trend, with activity peaking in late September/early October.



If you mean the C PAC yes. But not the E PAC so far this season we have not had any named storms in the E PAC but we have had a hurricane in the C PAC back in JAN
Quoting 327. Grothar:

I would not be surprised if they experts call for an above average 2016 hurricane season, with possible 15-17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2-4 majors. Details to follow.......

Hmm. I'm thinking 12-15, 4-6, 2-4 right now due to the fact of the cold water from the far north Atlantic bleeding into the far eastern Atlantic. Dr Klotzbach stated this at the National Hurricane Conference. ACE:100-120.
Quoting 335. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and we already have number 1 so we have 15 too 19 to go

Interesting, your numbers. I have already entered Maxweather's Hurricane Scorecard at 16,7,4. For right NOW I'm thinking 12-15.
Quoting 334. Grothar:



I'm just speaking from 11,000 years experience. Two important mitigating factors will be the SST's and the westerlies. Sometimes it takes the atmosphere a little time to catch up with a declining el Nino.

Lol I agree, if we can get neutral by about June or so, I'm thinking the atmosphere should respond to a more favorable environment by about ASO. I believe El Nino impacts will linger.
I wonder if this could be the year? Well we say that every year and we have been lucky so far.I've mentioned earlier we brought a beach condo in Florida near Fort Lauderdale.So I'm hoping Florida is spared yet another year.
349. SLU
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 8h8 hours ago

"leading climate scientists"
"top climate scientists"
"prominent climate scientists"
"An influential group of scientists"
#adjectives
Quoting 276. Barefootontherocks:

The later. The audit could be set up so they would not be.


Your either completely naive or a total idiot if you really think this would happen. Look at the stupidity of the so-called "climategate" emails. Watts was posting random out of context quotes for how long? And the stupidity still rears it's ugly head from time to time when deniers run out of moronic nonsense to say. Any emails would be selectively picked and edited to create an almost Doctor Evil like persona, leaked by a staffer would would be thrown under the bus publicly but privately lauded as a "climate hero". Meanwhile, physics doesn't give a flying **** about any of that worthless garbage and continues on it's merry way towards changing our world into something markedly less friendly.

You're not out for truth or logic. At all. If you were a logical person you take all your doubt and disbelief and dive into some math, chemistry, and physics books to "prove them all wrong". But that's rub isn't it? You can't do that. Not because you're not capable, but because all the math, physics, and chemistry back up what the scientists have been saying since the 19th century.

You're really not fooling anyone on here with your "only out for logic" crap. I remember deriving and using an energy balance model in my AP physics class when I was in high school several decades ago. If you don't "get it" by now, it's because you deliberately choose not to.

Science isn't done by rifling through people's personal effects and vilifying. Science is doen by picking apart research and showing that it's flawed. Find the flaw in atmospheric physics. Show how Planck got things wrong with his equations for black body radiation. Demonstrate CO2 is not a greenhouse gas. Provide a model that explains our current observations WITHOUT violating fundamental physical principles. THAT is logic. THAT is science.
Quoting 210. Xyrus2000:



Life expands to consume all resources until it either reaches equilibrium or collapse. During the "good times", populations expand. But if something drastic happens, something faster than life can adapt to, then drastic reductions (or extinctions) take place.

Before the modern era, we had no way to know that those "good times" would end. So empires would grow and continue on as if everything would stay that way forever. Then something like a drought happens and turns the whole thing to dust. From various events around the world, it still happens today.

Now we can predict that things are changing and will continue to change. We don't really have ignorance as any excuse anymore, and only an idiot would think we have the infrastructure/technology to deal with the events that caused these civilizations to collapse. A 20 year drought in the US midwest? Yeah, that wouldn't cause any problems.

So now we can use a common refrain from The Denier Bible, chapter 1, verse 20: "It's happened before." Yes, it has. And it will happen again. The question is, are we prepared and/or capable of handling it? The answer to that question is currently a resounding no.



The book of anti-science, chapter 2 verse 10:

"You shall not acknowledge environmental science, improvement of the environment, nor climate science, for doing so makes one a worshiper of government, and makes way for communist enslavement".


Modern society can be odd in how there can be sometimes a feeling as if modern convenience will never fail. Something tells me that if ancient societies had access to meteorological and climate prediction, that they would have likely taken the climate warnings more seriously. Many ancient societies placed vast importance on inquiring wise councils and/or higher powers on coming droughts, famines and other issues.

getting warm again soon, was 71.9F max today...no fog this morning...
353. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington (Final product NOT an official product of either so do not use coulorkey as 100% correct)
D&T:: 201603-22;1200u_-23;0200u_COnUS+s (missing frames, a jump of 3 hrs in first 2 frames, then the normal 30min jumps)
SAT imgry:: Blend of 3 Satellite Imagery.
nutty NOTE1:: Watching to see in the next 3-7 days what WxTrend hold on nearest the majeekal device AOIs areas (incl. opposite side of zip 10016 AOIs, that would be centered off SW Australia and there its the TTTs around the outer-most AOI as opposed to the RRRs)



WYS 628x428 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/iVTQa6VUZsc(org 922x605)
wait  wait wait whatz this?  !

HHjoe i think that neon like sign in the last Sat. frame off CA. coast is a bit too much.

We know ya want the rain, but training fireflies to create that neon sign - though green friendly - is a bit too much. Please release the fireflies from the buoys and place buoys back.  Yes yes i know some of the buoys ya had transferred from recently unused SAL dominated ATL areas soo there "not being really used".   But remember washi115 (soon to be TXting115) is giving nature the reverse psychology as to deeper into cntrl ATL blow ups as to this years ATL TS season, so ya know that means?!, get yer wide view plotting maps ready and hope TS stay in the deeper sea, and away from land. (with aGW, that's sadly a harder request for nature to take seriously, IF nature could really listen to humans.)
This was extremely interesting and I sincerely hope that we're not in for anything like this.
A much wetter pattern is on the way for Central and North FL:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 221904
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE HEADING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MAKING WAY FOR SEVERAL TROUGHS
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS MUCH OF THE UPPER FORCING DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
RICH MOIST AIRMASS...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH ALONG THE FRONT...AND SEABREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH FRONTAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
MAY BE OF MORE CONCERN. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK STALLED FRONT
WITH MID/UPPER FLOW PARALLELING THE FRONT...AND A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS
AS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME FLOOD ISSUES...AND
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY FROM I-4
NORTHWARD...WHERE THE BULK OF FRONTALLY-INDUCED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
Quoting 327. Grothar:

I would not be surprised if they experts call for an above average 2016 hurricane season, with possible 15-17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 2-4 majors. Details to follow.......


And they will all make landfall in Florida, because the hurricane drought must end with a bang, right?
I can throw a 45 cal, lead bullet at your face. I can shoot you with a 45 cal, hand gun in the face.
It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.
It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.
It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.

Looks like more trouble for the flooded south. 😢😢😢
Ten Times Faster Than a Hothouse Extinction — Human Carbon Emission is Worst in at Least 66 Million Years

“If you look over the entire … last 66 million years, the only event that we know of … that has a massive carbon release and happens over a relatively short period of time is the PETM. We actually have to go back to relatively old periods. Because in the more recent past, we don’t see anything [even remotely] comparable to what humans are currently doing.” Richard Zeebe of the University of Hawaii in a recent paper published in Nature.

Link
If the dinosaur impactor had landed at 2 mph, and not 70,000 mph.

It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.
Welcome to the J&B Blog.

Quoting 355. DMcArthur84:

This was extremely interesting and I sincerely hope that we're not in for anything like this.






Hmmm, notice any similarities?
Sorry, they both look alike to me?

Quoting 365. plantmoretrees:







Hmmm, notice any similarities?
So even if we can reduce co2 emission drastically over the next couple decades we will still have way too much in the atmosphere. I have set a personal goal of sequestering my carbon by planting trees, however it has been pointed out, more than once, that not everyone can do so. What other ideas could be implemented on a large enough scale to have an impact?
368. vis0
4th try in posting this (2 freezes, 1 not quoting and...)
Quoting 359. RobertWC:

It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.



Quoting 363. RobertWC:
If the dinosaur impactor had landed at 2 mph, and not 70,000 mph.

vis0 zilliness adds::(we'd be dinosaur chowder?...on a big sideboard with fillet of gator dipped in fermenting amoeba sauce,  some type of woolly mammoth cream pie, blending of ant & sushi ending with a minty tooth pick made from evergreens.)



As to It’s not the change, it’s velocity of the change.


TO My crazy way of thinking,
Its not the change its the extremes of this change.

1- a) Bike  hits you at 2mph**  vs.  b) bike hitting you at 20 mph. (here speed is worse)

2- a) HEAVY Truck runs over your foot at  2mph  vs.  b). 50mph  (aforementioned in this case is worse, not speed but the extension of the weight being on ones foot, as in long term effects of CO2 being accumulative)


3- a) One dives into pool feet first at 25 mph symmetrical splash, WOW! 10 points even from the foreign judge vs. jump from the kiddie dive-board chest first at 10 mph you swear that 12 Mexican wrestlers just macho-slapped you in the chest all at once. (how humanity reacts, be foolish and think we can just act normal or tighten up the laws-loopholes so the fast ascension can be first slowed down now, as if we do not start now how is that a good example for the next generation to follow?...c'mon kids do as we did fall off the cliff yelling "all is okay" as a 20 ton weight follows us overhead ..beepbeep)
 

4- a) you read 20 words from a RobertWC comment and you have deep information that is good to be stored as knowledge vs. you "reading" 500 words of a vis0 comment and find 501 words that don't even exist in the dictionary.
 

TO ME its not just one aspect, but the many extremes that are being created by adding much more warmth than that area (this planet) can balance on the time frame of a ::

 day  (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a few days after the industrial revolution went worldwide),

 week (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a few months after the industrial revolution went worldwide),

 month (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a year after the industrial revolution went worldwide),

 year (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a decade after the industrial revolution went worldwide...and some already were warning of the dangers),

 decade (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a generation after the industrial revolution went worldwide...and many more knew of its dangers),

 generation (this period of time where Earth could BEGIN to clean itself was passed a few generations ago, most knew by then things considered pollutants means bad things for humans, planet, all life),

 century (just passed this generation, like a speeding bullet but not out of a gun but out of a tank), 

With the "ball" still on the human side of the court which of the three "time periods" left below;
 

whether one thinks they only live once and will be judged on what they did during their physical life

whether one believes that one should leave the planet at least as they entered it or

whether  one believes they will come back
 

Which suits your need as to Earth being cleaned, before we reach the end of::

the myriad,

the epoch,    

the ...civilization?



 
===============================
i can imagine a commercial showing past generations looking at THAT generations fastest form of transportation with the word co2 = aGW on it, passing by each generation from  a unicycle, bike, hot air balloon (ironic) , boat, car steam engine, motorbike (ironic), race car (ironic), bullet train, a rocket, with the countdown beginning then words saying to we start to slow the countdown now or wait after blastoff, with a toddler looking innocently happy at the rocket to be launched on the screen.
=================================
**1a- in my case bike gets dented
Quoting 366. swflurker:

Sorry, they both look alike to me?




Indeed!



Looks like we may have to cut back on the meat n dairy also..
370. vis0
Quoting 369. plantmoretrees:



Indeed!



Looks like we may have to cut back on the meat n dairy also..
Less cows more protein rich termite chips ...laugh... but i could see
Doritos creating a deelicious termite brand chip has lots of protein
and chances are  its what your great x 18 parents ate
many centuries ago. Ate toast ones in 6th grade taste like super crispy
chicken skins with less grease (i know the grease ads the flavorful

... heart attack.)
see
it reads as crazy but we get areas where termites exist naturally and
capture them to make flavorful chips that they'll luv in the countries
that still eat them and all one needs is a big net on a big sling shot
and when the termites come out flying snap millions captured worldwide
sent to packaging factories. Create a myth that eating 20 Lbs of them a
months are good to help male fertility (as with ivory) and watch many to
have termites hunted down by the millions without pesticides.  mmm
toasted termites with marshmallows (mitemallows at the campfire) or
McDonalds termite McMite toast lite n crispy wraps with jalapeno sauce
inside (NOT TOO FRESH OR THEY'LL EAT THE SIDEBOARD), TACO...

[please sit down taco :), didn't call ya]   

...BELL "termite chalupa"    AyeCarambola wraps, available at WALGREENS.
371. JRRP7
Quoting 365. plantmoretrees:







Hmmm, notice any similarities?

And you didn't even show a hockey stick graph for temperatures.
Anthony Sagliani
‏@anthonywx
After some 12-15 months, trade wind anomalies in Equatorial Pacific have returned to near normal. #goodbyenino
Go back to sleep Godzilla! I wonder what we will name the La nina... Any ideas?
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH/TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.

...SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST EARLY THURSDAY
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A RELATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.

...DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY INTO KY...
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TEND TO DEAMPLIFY/WEAKEN AS IT
OVERSPREADS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...HEIGHT FALLS/VERY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH A MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS
/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 50S F TN
VALLEY/ AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT MOST CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT/EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF MS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL...ALTHOUGH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE-ADEQUATE
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AL NORTHWARD INTO
MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND KY. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
EVOLVE...WITH SOME SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PROBABLE PARTICULARLY
WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT /CENTERED ACROSS AL AND FAR EASTERN MS/ WHERE
SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION/WEAKER OVERALL FORCING IS EXPECTED
COINCIDENT WITH CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS...SOME
SEVERE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...OH VALLEY...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO THE 50S F NORTH OF THE
TN VALLEY IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHEASTWARD-
ADVANCING UPPER TOUGH AND SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. THIS MODEST AMOUNT
OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...ALONG WITH COLD FRONT-PRECEDING CLOUD
COVER/SCATTERED CONVECTION...WILL YIELD ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY WHILE
OTHERWISE LIKELY CURBING THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK. THAT SAID...STORM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE RESIDUAL
EARLY-DAY/NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRESUMING EVEN JUST WEAK DESTABILIZATION /COUPLE HUNDRED J PER KG
MLCAPE/...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ACCENTUATED BY 50+
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 2-3 KM AGL...WILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FAST-MOVING LOW-TOPPED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO
RISK. SHOULD MORE DESTABILIZATION BECOME APPARENT...ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF KY/OH AND POSSIBLY INDIANA COULD WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

..GUYER.. 03/23/2016
Quoting 373. Gearsts:

Anthony Sagliani
‏@anthonywx
After some 12-15 months, trade wind anomalies in Equatorial Pacific have returned to near normal. #goodbyenino

Poor Scott...What will he do with his time...Promulgate record Nina status maybe.
Quoting 187. WunderGirl12:

Hey All! :)

I was wondering if I could quote you Dr. Masters on this blog posting in a paper I'm doing on some of the causes of the decline of civilizations. I really enjoyed your posting, and it is EXTREMELY helpful in my research. :)

Thanks! - Raven/WunderGirl12


How to Cite a Quote from a Blog
Link
why isn't the Indus Valley civilization mentioned? It's very likely drought did them in too. A major river system along the Indian-Pakistani border---a region that's now desert--completely dried up. The river was called the Sarasvati and it passed into legend. The place names suggest the region once was much wetter than it is now.
Good Morning Folks; the forecast chart for today and related convective outlook:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2016

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 23 2016 - 12Z Fri Mar 25 2016

...Heavy snow expected to spread from the Intermountain West to the
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Midwest...

...Severe weather possible across the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts
of the Deep South through Thursday...

...Significant wildfire threat possible for portions of the Southwest and
into the Southern Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley...




As for the possibility of severe t-storms in the MS Valley, here is the current look, temperature differentials, and related jet configuration:



Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
The jet pushing into Missouri and Arkansas later today with day time heating and some lower level warm inflow from the Gulf will probably create some nice t-storms later this afternoon:

/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE01.GIF
Quoting 371. JRRP7:


No La nina until nov on that forecast.
It seems like the El Nino just might be collapsing faster than 1997-1998....

I think it is almost certain that there will be a La Nina/Neutral leaning La Nina by Summer-Early Fall

SSTs are already warm enough to form storms off of Africa.... and its only March! And with the SST Heat Content being fairly above average in the northwest Caribbean and in the Bahamas as Joaquin showed us(and we dodged a huge bullet with that storm here in the US(though it contributed to the huge massive flooding in South Carolina, if Captain Trough wasn't there to save the day....)

If the wind shear dies down in the western atlantic/carribean/GOM, we will have a significantly bigger chance of a big storm..... two months to go I know but it is starting to look like a setup for an active and potentially dangerous hurricane season after a relatively quiet period from 2013-2015.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 319. Llamaluvr:

It's not just my opinion, it's Scott's too, and this man knows his El Nino !!!!
Oh please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Likely the USA "civilization" will end; but climate may be only one factor in sustainability
387. vis0

Quoting 374. Gearsts:

Go back to sleep Godzilla! I wonder what we will name the La nina... Any ideas?


 

  • Cruella

  • Sheba(Queen though not biblically just as an ll encompasing figure)

  • Carrie

  • supergirl (supernina) CBS-likes i think

  • smurfette (STS's chiuce???)

  • "pick-or-chew" (phonetically)

  • Mononoke (Princess) ...sit down washi115

  • hey how 'bout Godzilla, it neither male nor female but if you look "closely" one ~can say its female...unless Bob Barker...ah self-censoring the rest

  • Chewbaca (W(r)ookie, see previous choice though is hairy so0...)

  • MUTOS (aGW mutation)
 

okay know was this for the blig title or La nina : - P
 
So if you enjoyed the Nina choices god now go back and read this blogbytes IMPORTANT introduction
Ten Civilizations or Nations That Collapsed From Drought

and THINK if it can be this bad naturally (as even Nativesun as stated these big droughts have happened before ) imagine how they can be worse if one adds natures (the natural) reply to the planet having more greenhouse gases building up  much i mean much faster than it occurred natural while the present complex animal,  humans walked on this planet.
As an example notice the 1 in 500 year weather extremes happening more often.