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TD 9 Organizing in the Gulf of Mexico; TD 8 Headed Towards North Carolina

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:39 PM GMT on August 29, 2016

Tropical Depression Nine has not strengthened into a tropical storm yet, confirmed a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft early on Monday morning, as the storm headed to the west at 7 mph on a track just north of western Cuba. The storm’s top winds remained near 35 mph, with a central pressure holding steady at 1007 mb. The strongest winds observed at a surface station on Monday morning were at Pulaski Shoals Lighthouse, located about 70 miles west of Key West, Florida, which recorded sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 35 mph, at 10 am EDT.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Nine.

Satellite images on Monday morning showed a slow increase in the intensity and areal coverage of TD 9’s heavy thunderstorms. Long-range Key West radar showed heavy rain over western Cuba, where up to 12” of rainfall was expected, and a few scattered rain showers over the Florida Keys, but little in the way of low-level spiral bands. The main factor keeping TD 9 from developing was wind shear that was a moderately high 15 - 25 knots. TD 9 was also struggling with dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Proximity to western Cuba was also interfering with development, as the storm’s counterclockwise flow of air pulled air across the mountains of Cuba into the storm. As this air descends to the ocean after crossing Cuba, warming and drying of the air occurs, robbing TD 9 of an important moisture source. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near TD 9’s center remained favorable for development, though, near 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F).


Figure 2. Projected 5-day rainfall from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Monday, August 29, through 12Z Saturday, September 3, 2016. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 7” are expected over most of Florida. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Track forecast for TD 9: a Florida Gulf Coast landfall
For several consecutive runs, there has been model consensus among the GFS, European, HWRF and UKMET models that TD 9 will move on a west-northwest track through Tuesday morning, slow down and turn north in the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon, then get caught in the steering flow of a trough of low pressure passing to the north on Wednesday. These steering currents should bring TD 9 to a landfall on the Florida coast north of Tampa on Wednesday or Thursday. There is significant spread in the timing of TD 9’s landfall in Florida, with the HWRF model predicting a Wednesday afternoon landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, and the GFS and European model predicting a Thursday morning or afternoon landfall as a 40 - 45 mph tropical storm. In their 11 am EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC’s highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from TD 9 along the Gulf Coast of Florida were 43%, 39%, and 34%, respectively, for Cedar Key, Tampa, and Apalachicola, Florida. Tropical storm-force winds may also occur on the east coast of Florida near where the storm exits the coast after crossing the state: NHC gave odds of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 30% to Orlando, The Villages, Daytona Beach, Gainesville and Jacksonville in Florida, and to King Bay in Georgia.

Intensity forecast for TD 9: more uncertain than usual
Once TD 9 pulls away from Cuba, a round of steady intensification is likely, with the system reaching tropical storm strength by Monday night. Satellite imagery late Monday morning showed that this process was already underway, with a notable increase in the storm’s organization. The SHIPS model on Monday morning predicted moderately favorable conditions for intensification, with wind shear falling to a moderate 10 - 15 knots Monday afternoon through Wednesday. SSTs will be a very warm 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F), and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to be a reasonably moist 65 - 70%. However, there is a significant amount of dry air at middle and upper levels of the atmosphere that may interfere with development, and the usually reliable European and GFS models showed little development of TD 9 in their 12Z Sunday and 0Z Monday (8 pm EDT Sunday) runs because of this dry air, NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart argued in his forecast discussion on Sunday night. Our best dynamical intensity model, the HWRF model, had TD 9 intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane just before landfall, though, and our two best statistical intensity models, the DSHIPS and LGEM models, had TD 9 as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane at landfall. NHC is going with a forecast of a 65 mph tropical storm at landfall, noting that increasing wind shear in the final day before landfall may stop the intensification process. TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, as suggested by our best intensity models, and residents along the Gulf Coast of Florida should anticipate this possibility. This portion of the coast is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the extensive stretch of shallow continental shelf water offshore that extend up to 90 miles from the coast. A worst-case Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide can cause a storm surge that will inundate the Florida Gulf Coast north of Tampa to a depth to 9 - 10 feet, as seen in SLOSH model imagery available in WU’s storm surge pages.

NOAA/RAMMB has some impressive rapid scan loops of TD 9 with images taken every minute.

TD 8 headed for the Outer Banks of North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is up for the Outer Banks of North Carolina as Tropical Depression Eight churns northwest at 7 mph towards the state. TD 8 has not strengthened into a tropical storm yet, confirmed an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft on Monday morning, as the plane found top winds in the storm near 35 mph, with a central pressure holding steady at 1011 mb.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Eight.

Satellite images on Monday morning showed TD 8 had a vigorous circulation but only a meager amount of heavy thunderstorms. The depression was not developing due to very dry air (45 - 50% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere), combined with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near TD 8’s center remained favorable for development, though, near 29°C (84°F).

Forecast for TD 8: grazing the Outer Banks of North Carolina
The computer models are in excellent agreement that TD 8 will continue on its current northwest track through Tuesday morning, then make a sharp turn to the north and northeast on Tuesday afternoon after getting caught in the steering flow of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. These steering currents should bring the center of TD 8 very close to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Tuesday night. A storm surge of 1 - 2 feet can be expected along the Outer Banks, along with heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches. In their 11 am EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC’s highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from TD 8 were 46% for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Dry air and moderate wind shear will continue to affect TD 8 through Wednesday, and it is unlikely this storm will be stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm at the time of its closest approach to the coast on Tuesday night. As TD 8 accelerates away from the coast on Wednesday and Thursday, more significant strengthening may occur.

A new tropical wave worth watching is leaving the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa late on Monday, move through the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and potentially develop into a tropical depression later in the week as it heads west at 15 - 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. The latest runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS, ECMWF and UKMET models, continue to agree that this wave will develop into a tropical depression late in the week. The wave should remain on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path through the week, arriving near or just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday evening. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 50%, respectively.



Figure 4. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Gaston as of 1415Z (10:15 am EDT) Monday, August 29, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Powerful Gaston loiters over the remote Atlantic
Hurricane Gaston continues to aim its formidable power on the open Atlantic, about 600 miles east of Bermuda, rather than on people and structures. After peaking early Monday with top sustained winds of 120 mph, Gaston weakened slightly, but it remains a strong Category 2 hurricane with top winds of 110 mph in the 11 am EDT Monday NHC advisory. Gaston’s show of strength is remarkable given that it is practically parked over the remote subtropical Atlantic: it has moved less than 100 miles in the 24 hours ending at 11 am EDT. Hurricanes moving this slowly are often weakened as they churn up cooler water--but the western subtropical Atlantic is remarkably warm this summer, with SSTs of 29°C (84°F) near Gaston more than 1.5°C above average. Currently drifting north at just 2 mph, Gaston has another day or so of favorable conditions before a North Atlantic trough bumps up the currently-light wind shear and begins accelerating Gaston toward the northeast and toward cooler waters. It will likely hold its own for several days, though, perhaps remaining a hurricane till Thursday or Friday.

Gaston is on track to sweep over or near the Azores this weekend. The 5-day NHC outlook puts Gaston close to the northern Azores as a 60-mph tropical storm on Saturday, September 3. The Azores see a tropical cyclone landfall only about once a decade on average, although the nation was struck this past January by the bizarrely out-of-season Hurricane Alex. The islands have never recorded two landfalls in a single year.


Figure 5. GOES-West infrared image of Hurricanes Madeline (center) and Lester (right), both moving west toward Hawaii (left). Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Will the Fujiwhara effect keep Hurricanes Madeline and Lester away from Hawaii?
Amazingly, two hurricanes are rolling across the North Pacific, one behind the other, on tracks aiming toward the seldom-struck Hawaiian islands. Either one could make landfall in the next week--but it’s also possible that an obscure atmospheric mechanism will kick in just in time to steer one or both of them away from the 50th state.

Hurricane Madeline is the more immediate threat. As of the 11 am EDT Monday advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Category 2 Madeline was located about 700 miles east of Hilo, HI, moving west-northwest at 10 mph with top sustained winds of 100 mph. Madeline has been getting stronger over the past day, with a broadening shield of convection and an eye intermittently visible. It’s not out of the question that Madeline will become a major hurricane by Tuesday, with wind shear very low (around 5 knots) and SSTs of 26-27°C. Somewhat drier air and increasing wind shear will begin affecting Madeline by midweek, with gradual weakening expected. The official CPHC track takes Madeline on a west-southwest arc, brushing the Big Island on Wednesday night as a Category 1 storm. At its closest, the center of Madeline is projected to be roughly 100 miles south of Hilo--which is smaller than the average three-day track error of 130 miles in this region. The upshot is that the first-ever recorded hurricane strike on the Big Island is within the realm of possibility. Even if Madeline stays south of the Big Island, very strong northeast winds rotating around the hurricanes could produce torrential rains and flooding on the east side of the island.

Hard on the heels of Madeline is even-stronger Category 3 Hurricane Lester, which on Monday become the fourth major hurricane of the 2016 East Pacific season. Packing top sustained winds of 125 mph as of the 11 am EDT Monday advisory, Lester is showing signs of evolving into an annular hurricane--the type that features a large eye and convection concentrated in a single ring around that eye, rather than in spiral bands. Annular hurricanes tend to be slow to weaken, and Lester shows no signs of weakening in the near future. Wind shear will remain less than 15 knots for the next several days, with SSTs around 26-27°C adequate to keep Lester going. NHC predicts that Lester will be about 150 miles northeast of Hilo on Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane, on a northwestward-angling track that could keep the storm just north of the islands. Lester is now moving west at 14 mph, bringing it gradually closer to Madeline.


Figure 6. The Fujiwhara effect causes two tropical cyclones near each other to rotate around a common midpoint. This motion is on top of the preexisting movement of each cyclone. Image credit: Hong Kong Observatory.


Ironically, the coexistence of Madeline and Lester may help keep either one from a direct landfall on Hawaii, thanks to the Fujiwhara effect, which was discovered nearly a century ago by Japanese researcher Sakuhei Fujiwhara. When two tropical cyclones get within about 800 miles of each other, the interaction tends to make the pair rotate around a common point in between, with the effect superimposed on the storm’s preexisting motions. In a case like this, the easterm storm (Lester) would angle northward and the western storm (Madeline) would angle southward. Both effects would tend to angle Madeline and Lester away from Hawaii.

Hurricanes and tropical storms are getting more common around Hawaii
The prospect of two potential Hawaiian landfalls in one week is an exceptional event, since tropical storms are so rare in the state. Only five tropical storms have struck since records began in 1949, and two of those have been in the last three years:

--Hurricane Darby made landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii’s Big Island on July 23, 2016, as a minimal tropical storm (top sustained winds of 40 mph). Damage was minimal and there were no deaths from Darby.

--Tropical Storm Iselle, which, like Darby, made landfall along the southeast shore of the Big Island, arriving as a 60-mph tropical storm on August 8, 2014. Iselle killed one person and did $79 million in damage.

--Hurricane Iniki, which hit Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane, killing 6 and causing $1.8 billion in damage (1992 dollars.)

--Hurricane Dot, which hit Kauai as a Category 1 hurricane, causing 6 indirect deaths and $6 million in damage (1959 dollars.)

--An unnamed 1958 storm that had sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall on the Big Island. The storm killed one person and caused $0.5 million in damage.

The region around Hawaii has seen a lot of tropical activity over the past four years, including a number of near-misses. Partly this is a result of El Niño, which warmed the waters of the tropical Central and Eastern Pacific where Hawaii-heading cyclones are born. However, the uptick may also be a harbinger of things to come. See the August 2014 post, Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes.


Figure 7. Tracks of all tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2016. On July 25, 2016, Tropical Storm Darby made the closest approach on record by a tropical storm to Honolulu, passing just 40 miles to the south and west of Hawaii’s capital with sustained 40 mph winds. Darby brought torrential rains in excess of ten inches to portions of Oahu. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

We'll be back with updates as conditions warrant.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The shear has been Jaws like in its pursuit of TD 9.
Quoting 447. GTstormChaserCaleb:

COC looks exposed 24N 84.2W, wonder if it ejects out and a new center reforms closer to the convection?



Lol again?!? Good luck models ...
Quoting 447. GTstormChaserCaleb:

COC looks exposed 24N 84.2W, wonder if it ejects out and a new center reforms closer to the convection?




I'd say that at this point, that is pretty unlikely. The key for center relocation is that the LLC will form wherever the pressures are the lowest, and will relocate only when vorticity is not particularly robust. If that happens to be at the MLC near Cuba, then it would reform, but that's not what seems to be occurring according to the Hurricane Hunters. The LLC has become much better established (as opposed to yesterday), and has a lower pressure at 1006-1007mb than what you may find closer to the MLC.
Quoting 494. bayoubug:

Looks to be undressing..Is that the coc popping out and moving NW..
Looks like it, I'm more interested in what's going on further south over Golfo de Guanahacabibes. It may just be mid-level, but the inflow looks good there.
last couple visible frames show mid level and surface lows decoupled... again... mid level is just south of QBA and surface is moving NW from convection
Quoting 489. TropicalAnalystwx13:

TD Eight is weaker and TD Nine has not changed since yesterday based on their respective recon flights.


TD 8 is not weaker TD 8 could be in a high pressure zone right now that is why you are seeing high pressuere with TD 8 makeing you think it is weaker but its not TD 8 has got in way better organization since this AM when i last check check it we could see a TS upgrade soon with TD 8 even with the high pressuer you are seeing on the recon report but TD 8 is not weaker its this in a high pressure zone right now too where pressuer is higher then normal
Quoting 480. Patrap:




And that's without stalling? I guess I stand corrected, BUT... what are the odds? How often this happen?
I wonder how the huge upper level low coming from East to West North or Puerto Rico will affect TD#9?, are they going to collided!!!?.
Quoting 464. redwagon:

Offhand, anyone know the sharpest turn ever made by a storm in the GOM?


n00b trying to post an image....

#485,good to see yas.

Just watching the loops and motion trends with td9

Louisiana needs no more rain here,as the rains with no name did plenty of bad mojo on us.

Quoting 506. thetwilightzone:



TD 8 is not weaker TD 8 could be in a high pressure zone right now that is why you are seeing high pressuere with TD 8 makeing you think it is weaker but its not TD 8 has got in way better organization since this AM when i last check check it we could see a TS upgrade soon with TD 8 even with the high pressuer you are seeing on the recon report but TD 8 is not weaker its this in a high pressure zone right now too where pressuer is higher then normal

Environmental pressures might be higher than normal, but the storm's pressure has still risen several millibars since yesterday. Flight-level winds have not exceeded 25kt, and surface winds are around there too (rain-contaminated values near 30kt).
Can anyone tell me which TD what get the name Hermine. If both of the Td's become storms at 5pm???
Cuba made it split.

CPac 92C south of Hawaii really ought to be classified as a depression by now, at least. Clear surface circulation and convection, albeit still highly sheared.
Quoting 464. redwagon:

Offhand, anyone know the sharpest turn ever made by a storm in the GOM?
Quoting 434. 69Viking:




It's supposed to turn NE with a High pressure ridge sitting over the SE?


Maybe a perceived weakness in the ridge?
Quoting 509. lurkNoMore:



n00b trying to post an image....



I'm so sorry to tell you this... but... >_____< That's not in the Gulf. I remember tracking that one for what felt like forever.
Quoting 507. CaneHunter031472:



And that's without stalling? I guess I stand corrected, BUT... what are the odds? How often this happen?


That has to be the winner for sharp turn. Not the only storm to go 360 degrees but that's almost on a dime with the time plots.
Gonna watch the track move further away from daytona. Every update like it always does....great news.
Quoting 499. Hurricane1956:

Daughter studying at UF, Gainesville a a little bit worried!!.
As long as she is not living in a trailer she should be fine. If she is living in a trailer than she should seek stronger shelter should the storm come her way.
Quoting 510. Patrap:
#485,good to see has.

Just watching the loops and motion trends with td9

Louisiana needs no more rain here,as the rains with no name did plenty of bad mojo on us.



Going over there to pay it forward on the 24th with the church. Got a lot of help during Katrina and now it's my turn to help. And yes, Louisiana does not need more rain.
Quoting 510. Patrap:

#485,good to see has.

Just watching the loops and motion trends with td9

Louisiana needs no more rain here,as the rains with no name did plenty of bad mojo on us.



All that recent action over Lousiana probably helped dry out the midlevels while also removing heat from the surface of the Gulf, which might in part explain the struggle of TD 9 to get traction---just not quite enough ambient moisture to overcome the other limiting factors.
523. BlxMS
Quoting 510. Patrap:

#485,good to see has.

Just watching the loops and motion trends with td9

Louisiana needs no more rain here,as the rains with no name did plenty of bad mojo on us.



Yeah, I know it did. I've got business interests in Denham, Watson, E. B/R and Greenwell and none of mine, or anybody else's businesses can take 31 inches of rain. Had people over there for going on three weeks trying to put things back in order. Hope yours weren't too badly impacted...tho I know that everyone's was. Hang in there. It gets better!
09L still look very pathetic. good news for everyone as it seem like it will never become powerful. :) so good news.
I know more than likely T.D 9 will get a name as all models develop it,however none develop T.D 8 past a weak area of low pressure and actually opens it up as it nears the outer banks (but to be fair none of the models developed it in the first place)
Quoting 513. a69InmyBooty:

Can anyone tell me which TD what get the name Hermine. If both of the Td's become storms at 5pm???



well it looks like right now no TD will get upgrade at 5 too Hermine
Quoting 517. George1938:


I'm so sorry to tell you this... but... >_____< That's not in the Gulf. I remember tracking that one for what felt like forever.


I sit corrected as I missed the GOM part. Yeah that storm went on and on and on. Reminds me of TD9
528. BlxMS
Quoting 513. a69InmyBooty:

Can anyone tell me which TD what get the name Hermine. If both of the Td's become storms at 5pm???


I believe that would be 8. In case of a tie, the first deemed TD gets dibs.
Quoting 509. lurkNoMore:



n00b trying to post an image....



GOM has moved who knew :)
Quoting 301. washingtonian115:




Then after that I see a sharp NW or NNW turn and the storm finally moving just ENE of me :\
Quoting 513. a69InmyBooty:

Can anyone tell me which TD what get the name Hermine. If both of the Td's become storms at 5pm???
well 08 got numbered first that would get H 09 came later so that gets an I but only if both become named at same time it could go the other if 09 gets named first
Quoting 526. thetwilightzone:




well it loo
ks like right now no TD will get upgrade at 5 too Hermine


Evening Taz & Booty,

If I had to guess, I'd think that 8 would be H & 9 would be I if it were to happen at the same time.
Question now that we have at the moment a exposed coc...Does that make the forecast a bit difficult...Being that it's not as strong per say...
Quoting 531. CaribBoy:



Then after that I see a sharp NW or NNW turn and the storm finally moving just ENE of me :\


For the first time ever have I found someone wanting to get hit by a storm more than me lol. You're fine though, hope ya get what ya want.
I personally think you all are not taking this seriously. We have a Tropical Depression, which is organizing in structure, moving into an anticyclone in the GOM.. Not calling for a Major Hurricane, but a strong TS/Category 1 storm at landfall is a good possibility and people in Florida should prepare for at least a Tropical Storm. I myself in Palm Coast is expecting....

- Heavy rains and potential flooding
- Winds 40-60 mph.
- minor damages and some power outages

The fact that TD9 has made it this far and has great structure shows that if conditions verify, it won't take long for it to grow.
Quoting 501. Heresince2005:

The shear has been Jaws like in its pursuit of TD 9.
pretty much blessing in disguise really imagine if it had none the whole time what a mess it would of made
Quoting 293. Gearsts:

CaribBoy?



Glad to see the EURO still has the storm xD

I pray it doesn't move too far north...
U haul?

🌜 🎑 🌎 🌉 🌊🌃
Its going to reform SW.
Quoting 531. CaribBoy:



Then after that I see a sharp NW or NNW turn and the storm finally moving just ENE of me :\


Let's stay positive that you will get drenched! : )
Quoting 321. washingtonian115:




A little more west would be fine. :)
Quoting 512. Patrap:







While it may not seem like it, the organization/structure has improved with more banding features developing.
here in clearwater were getting a lot of rain.
Quoting 536. reedzone:

I personally think you all are not taking this seriously. We have a Tropical Depression, which is organizing in structure, moving into an anticyclone in the GOM.. Not calling for a Major Hurricane, but a strong TS/Category 1 storm at landfall is a good possibility and people in Florida should prepare for at least a Tropical Storm. I myself in Palm Coast is expecting....

- Heavy rains and potential flooding
- Winds 40-60 mph.
- minor damages and some power outages

The fact that TD9 has made it this far and has great structure shows that if conditions verify, it won't take long for it to grow.



I will give "Our little fren" an A for persistence no doubt. Let's wait and see if it laughs last.
Quoting 326. Gearsts:




OMG hopefully that will come true.

548. vis0

Quoting 22. RitaEvac:



I don't think you people quiet understand what I'm referencing at. When the storm was 175mph with gust to 200mph the report went out accordingly. It weakened much more WIND wise as it came ashore. It's a government "CYA" on their part, we ALL know that. It caused damage and WIND damage, we know that. It didn't materialize with that kind of wind of 175-200mph. And the events described in the text by the NWS did not happen as such. It was not a Andrew wind damage event.
my22cents:: my zilly blog wait after clicking link as page THERE will auto scroll to my reply so one has no need to read my nutty comments


...link
new convection looks like its right under anticyclone


Convection is collapsing, probably due to ingesting dry air located over the NE and central GOM. And let's not forget the ever present northerly wind shear.
faces looking out from oceans everywhere

553. JLPR2
Here comes soon to be 92L, solid TW ready to make its splash.
We'll have to see how much does it wane afterwards.



555. IDTH

Quoting 547. CaribBoy:



OMG hopefully that will come true.




Still having drought issues down there?
so td9 has fell apart?Thought they said it was a tropical storm?
maybe I'm looking at it wrong but recon looks like it found 1005mb pressure south of where they had the center a bit ago.
Quoting 550. GetReal:



Convection is collapsing, probably due to ingesting dry air located over the NE and central GOM. And let's not forget the ever present northerly wind shear.


Probably has to due with the relocation of the new COC of 1004.9 Millibars around 22.7N; 84.7W
HH just found a 1004.9mb (surface) at 22.750N 84.783W (td09)
20:40:30Z 22.750N 84.783W 695.8 mb
(~ 20.55 inHg) 3,194 meters
(~ 10,479 feet) 1004.9 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 11° at 7 knots
(From the N/NNE at ~ 8.1 mph) 11.4°C
(~ 52.5°F) 8.9°C
(~ 48.0°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.4 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 20.3 knots (~ 23.4 mph)
290.0%
Pressure is getting lower and it's in the convection, which leads me to think that there is a center reformation at this time.
The CPHC just posted a Hurricane Watch for the Big Island:

HURRICANE MADELINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
2100 UTC MON AUG 29 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.


Looks like a new center may be forming further south, 1004.9mb!
Quoting 551. Patrap:


northward push has begun water overflow it from mobile bay eastward and across the entire fla state with 09l

what is over central gulf westward pushes inland and away from the nw gulf coasts
Quoting 557. help4u:

so td9 has fell apart?Thought they said it was a tropical storm?


They never said it was.

Quoting 559. Tornadocane:



Probably has to due with the relocation of the new COC of 1004.9 Millibars around 22.7N; 84.7W



And also D-Min.
566. wpb
Quoting 563. Jbailey0531:

Looks like a new center may be forming further south, 1004.9mb!
recon went from 2500 to 10000 ft in five minutes thats why pressure fell
Quoting 490. CaneHunter031472:

Let me try this again }:(

24Hrs from now:


48Hrs Continues a NW trajectory and intensifies


72Hrs after making a 45 deg sharp turn and accelerating significantly. (Must be considered an UFO)


I'm sorry, but this to me looks like a low confidence forecast. Unless it completely stalls in 48Hrs I don't see this happening, therefore if I am anywhere between NOLA and Tampa I should be paying close attention to this system. IMHO!



Very unlikely, the 500 mb charts there give you all you need to see why it will turn NE. You can see the ridging splitting in two as a trough amplifies across the NE US. Almost all models show this trough now, and unless this trough doesn't do this, there's no reason why it won't turn NE.

I think the center is a little further south, they found a 1005 mb south of latest fix.
Quoting 489. TropicalAnalystwx13:

TD Eight is weaker and TD Nine has not changed since yesterday based on their respective recon flights.



TA are you getting any rain in Rocky Point? Its pouring down here and blowing like a banshee, maybe ULL? stray thunderstorm?
Note the blooming storms downriver from Lake Pontchartrain to offshore into the GOM.


That's a low pressure alley .




Quoting 550. GetReal:



Convection is collapsing, probably due to ingesting dry air located over the NE and central GOM. And let's not forget the ever present northerly wind shear.


Depressing look.


TD08 is trying to make a comeback this afternoon.
Quoting 557. help4u:

so td9 has fell apart?Thought they said it was a tropical storm?
who says it fell apart its dmin and you know that

 Upper Jefferson Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsCoastal Flood WatchIssued: 3:27 PM CDT Aug. 29, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Coastal Flood Watch in effect from Tuesday evening through
Thursday morning...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday evening through
Thursday morning.

* Coastal flooding... tides possibly over 2 feet above normal

* timing... late Tuesday night through Thursday

* impacts... tides around 1 to 2 feet above normal will lead to
inundation of low lying coastal roadways and areas not typically
subject to coastal flooding during high tides outside of
protection levees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.



Cab

Quoting 560. hurricanehanna:

HH just found a 1004.9mb (surface) at 22.750N 84.783W (td09)


Interesting. Still have quite a vigorous surface spin with the LLC. That makes it harder for a surface center relocation to occur. I'm a bit surprised that the pressures are lower near Cuba than near the center of the LLC.
Sure looks like the MLC loved the ULAC and stayed back around the Western tip of Cuba.

This has been an unique setup for sure, so we'll see what the next couple HH passes reveal, but I do believe the LLC is strong enough to sustain itself and work itself up assuming is able to build some convection by DMAX tomorrow AM (at least for the time being).
Tropical Depression NINE
...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...

Someone at the NHC made an oopsy... I think that's supposed to read TD9, not Gaston. lol
Looks like no update this time around..
Quoting 564. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

northward push has begun water overflow it from mobile bay eastward and across the entire fla state with 09l

what is over central gulf westward pushes inland and away from the nw gulf coasts


You can see the old LLC fading and dissipating and a brand new one forming, almost like it is trying to hook onto the anticyclone.
Quoting 572. SavannahStorm:



TD08 is trying to make a comeback this afternoon.

It sure looks good right now.
Just now 23.317N 84.750W 1002.1 (TD09)
Anyone in Dade County want rain? Well in the next few hours you'll regretting that thought.
...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...

Now that's funny 😂
1002.1 Mb
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin =al&year=2016&storm=Nine&mission=07&agency=NOAA&pr oduct=hdob&ob=08-29-204230-24-1002.1-7-27

Just Call it!
Following "Wunderblogs - Adding Image" instructions, but not working.  Any suggestions? Thanks.  Showed up in preview but not in actual post.
Quoting 556. FunnelVortex:



Still having drought issues down there?


After a normal july, august has been dry. We are 70% below average for this month.

A special thanks to 99L that hasn't been able to bring the expected rains :\\\
Pouring on Longboat Key right now. I guess I'd better get used to being wet over the next few days.
Quoting 566. wpb:

recon went from 2500 to 10000 ft in five minutes thats why pressure fell


Thanks, I was about to post the same once I looked at the aircraft altitude. I thought it seemed bizarre.
593. IDTH
Quoting 563. Jbailey0531:

Looks like a new center may be forming further south, 1004.9mb!

I don't know whether or not they have but that could have quite a few implications on track and intensity.
Quoting 577. VegasRain:

Tropical Depression NINE
...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...

Someone at the NHC made an oopsy... I think that's supposed to read TD9, not Gaston. lol


Maybe they are tired
TD9 still a depression on update, system has work to do. NHC mentioned this in the discussion:

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as tomorrow morning.
596. hamla
Flood Watch hancock cnty ms.
Quoting 580. BayFog:


It sure looks good right now.


Looks a heck of a lot better than 9.
And what do we have here? Is that a new center trying to develop in a better region for development?
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
599. IDTH
Quoting 570. Patrap:

Note the blooming storms downriver from Lake Pontchartrain to offshore into the GOM.


That's a low pressure alley .






Think the center relocated?
looks like the cone shifted a bit west. Tampa is now barely in it.
Looking at latest model trends, I think they may move the "bullseye" about 50 miles up the coast for the next Advisory... models have been trending a lil more towards Apalachicola, FL.... Now if this system doesn't drop in pressure overnight and continues WEST or WSW, models may trend more towards Panama City Area... but not much more west than that in my opinion - models really are onto this swift NE turn...
Quoting 598. George1938:

And what do we have here? Is that a new center trying to develop in a better region for development?
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">


Or is it just terribly decoupled? Or has it opened up?
Quoting 600. BobinTampa:

looks like the cone shifted a bit west. Tampa is now barely in it.


Whew !!!!!!!!!
Still looking bare...
605. IDTH
Quoting 598. George1938:

And what do we have here? Is that a new center trying to develop in a better region for development?
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">

IF so, that will have a bad implication on track and intensity and when I mean bad, I mean BAD.
Quoting 600. BobinTampa:
looks like the cone shifted a bit west. Tampa is now barely in it.


It didn't shift West, the cone narrowed.
Quoting 598. George1938:

And what do we have here? Is that a new center trying to develop in a better region for development?
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
If that's the case, could be longer over water= stronger
Quoting 595. WeatherkidJoe2323:

TD9 still a depression on update, system has work to do. NHC mentioned this in the discussion:

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as tomorrow morning.



The wishcasters will celebrate.
Quoting 507. CaneHunter031472:



And that's without stalling? I guess I stand corrected, BUT... what are the odds? How often this happen?

Had to evacuate Panama City Beach twice for that one....
610. IDTH
Vorticity chart may have also hint at at center relocation.

Quoting 605. IDTH:


IF so, that will have a bad implication on track and intensity and when I mean bad, I mean BAD.


What does that mean?
Quoting 606. 69Viking:



It didn't shift West, the cone narrowed.


The 5pm EST advisory moved the "bullseye" about 30 miles north up the coast... not much at all. But they did move it closer to GFS/EURO blend.
Quoting 608. CaribBoy:



The wishcasters will celebrate.
Quoting 610. IDTH:

Vorticity chart may have also hint at at center relocation.




Right under that strong anticyclone. Should see some strengthening tonight as they interact.
615. IDTH
Quoting 602. StormJunkie:



Or is it just terribly decoupled? Or has it opened up?

Could be, or it could have relocated. Either way, stuff is going down right now.
616. Siker
In case anyone never wants the saga of TD-9 aka 99L to never end...

One Euro ensemble member keeps this as a weak storm which barely makes landfall in the Big Bend, gets shunted back southwest by a building ridge, meanders in the southwestern Gulf while strengthening, and eventually makes landfall in Louisiana as a powerful hurricane in two weeks.
Quoting 605. IDTH:


IF so, that will have a bad implication on track and intensity and when I mean bad, I mean BAD.


Why? What does that mean?
Quoting 611. CCSoFLA79:



What does that mean?


It would have a much higher chance of getting under that anticyclone and just better conditions anyway. Meaning stronger storm more likely and also likely further northwest than the 5pm nhc track.
24.167N 84.733W 1002.4 mb (TD09)

yet again...am I misreading the pressures ?
620. IDTH
If the center relocated (and that's if), you may as well throw out the 18z model runs.
Quoting 611. CCSoFLA79:



What does that mean?


Means nothing at this point. Even if the center was moving around, it's not a big deal. Not going to change the over all conditions in the Gulf, and it's not likely to have a major impact on track. The thing is, 9 was supposed to meander for the next day or two anyway. Personally, I am not at all sold on a relocation. 9 looks pretty ragged right now, and it may be elongating/ S side opening up.

Lester, just upgraded to a Cat 4, still on a Hawaiian heading.
#9 heading for central/n. Florida staying weak, could benefit areas well below average rainfall. Stay weak # 9!
624. IDTH
Quoting 611. CCSoFLA79:



What does that mean?

That mean's it could end up closer to the anticyclone which could lead to intensification, but the track may also become more murky. It's just speculation on my part and I'm no expert but I still see the possibility.
Quoting 612. LouisianaWxGuy:



The 5pm EST advisory moved the "bullseye" about 30 miles north up the coast... not much at all. But they did move it closer to GFS/EURO blend.


No point in even paying attention to the bullseye. They removed the bullseye lines from the cone for a reason, because people were focusing too much on it. The impacts can be 100 miles plus in either direction.
Exhuming things that's better left alone

Quoting 612. LouisianaWxGuy:


The 5pm EST advisory moved the "bullseye" about 30 miles north up the coast... not much at all. But they did move it closer to GFS/EURO blend.


Again, that happened because the cone narrowed.

Link
I just got back and am getting caught up. Did the NOAA P-3 find a 1002.1 mb surface pressure south of the location tagged in the vortex message, tucked up underneath the convection?
1002.4 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg)


at 22N 84W it loosk like the center has reform this is vary bad news

Madeline just upgraded to another major Cat 3 in the Pacific. Hurricane watch up for the Big Island. A recon flight is scheduled to take a look at the storm tomorrow.
td9 will eventually look something like this I figure

Quoting 629. thetwilightzone:

1002.4 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg)


at 22N 84W it loosk like the center has reform this is vary bad news


At what altitude?
this is nuts
Quoting 625. Michfan:



No point in even paying attention to the bullseye. They removed the bullseye lines from the cone for a reason, because people were focusing too much on it. The impacts can be 100 miles plus in either direction.



oh yes - I understand that completely. :) I was just replying to the comment: "the track didn't change, the cone narrowed to take Tampa almost out the cone". I was just saying that the NHC did in fact move the track slightly to the north - enough to move tampa more to the edge of the cone.
Quoting 620. IDTH:

If the center relocated (and that's if), you may as well throw out the 18z model runs.


Not out of the question, given that low-pressure 'alley' Pat pointed out, and I'm watching that ULL over DR/PR at 850 to see if it works down and joins the circus...
636. FOREX
Quoting 628. CBJeff:

I just got back and am getting caught up. Did the NOAA P-3 find a 1002.1 mb surface pressure south of the location tagged in the vortex message, tucked up underneath the convection?
no
Quoting 632. JrWeathermanFL:



At what altitude?


10,486
Quoting 632. JrWeathermanFL:



At what altitude?


dont no
Quoting 631. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

td9 will eventually look something like this I figure



It will probably have the typical look of your classic early June Big Bend Florida TS. Except it's late August. I'm thinking 09L/Hermine will make landfall as a strong tropical storm in the 65-70 mph range.


🌎 🌉 🌊 🎑
Quoting 627. 69Viking:



Again, that happened because the cone narrowed.

Link


NO, if you look the the graphics archive, you can clearly see the actual forecast track moved north - compare todays 11am graphic and 5pm graphic and you'll see the track was nudged north. AND the NHC discussion said it was moved more to the GFS/EURO blend...
642. IDTH
Quoting 631. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

td9 will eventually look something like this I figure



Definitely, especially with how it's north easterly movement will impact the structure.
Quoting 637. hurricanehanna:



10,486


That is not the surface
Quoting 643. JrWeathermanFL:



That is not the surface


ok - no wonder . Thanks
645. IDTH

Quoting 602. StormJunkie:



Or is it just terribly decoupled? Or has it opened up?


Hey SJ...lost you earlier! What was the name of that storm you came to Oak Island for on a chase in 06 or 07?
GFS time :)

Maybe a good surprise is coming.

Some good showers this week would be welcome.

But as long as the SAL is there.... :(
Quoting 610. IDTH:

Vorticity chart may have also hint at at center relocation.



I thought I saw it lower on the satellite,does that make the track diffrent?
I'm honestly not sure what to make of 09L right now. The satellite presentation looks like garbage with what appears to be the LLC exposed from the convection, however the HH is showing 1002mb pressures south of that low just of the coast of Cuba below 23N. Often sheared TC's can make LLC relocations and it's possible 09L might be doing just that.



TD 9 finally building some vertical structure, slowly... those dry-air outflow boundaries are getting farther away from the center too. Tonight's the night.
99L/09L has not been able to figure out in almost 2 weeks exactly what a tropical cyclone looks like.
Decoupled. ... again.
Gonna check back with everyone tomorrow; this vis loops tells the story of how unfavorable conditions are starting to become closer to the West Coast of Florida in the Eastern Gulf. You can see the sheer raging over Florida at the upper levels and over into the Gulf exactly in the same vicinity where TD9 is headed in a few days: not worried about this one except for the rain aspect.





Two storms thousands of mile apart with an uncanny resemblance:


CPac 92C


Atl TD 8
Quoting 643. JrWeathermanFL:



That is not the surface


That is why it is called an "extrapolated surface pressure". It would still be valid even if they are flying at 10,000 feet
656. MahFL
The center of TD9 did not relocate, it's moving. What did happen was again the shear tore the clouds away and TD9 is semi naked.

Quoting 649. CybrTeddy:

I'm honestly not sure what to make of 09L right now. The satellite presentation looks like garbage with what appears to be the LLC exposed from the convection, however the HH is showing 1002mb pressures south of that low just of the coast of Cuba below 23N. Often sheared TC's can make LLC relocations and it's possible 09L might be doing just that.







it may help too read back a little be for posting so that way you no whats been going on we been talking about may be a center reforming at 22N and 84W
Link
Great view of all systems.
By tomorrow, we should have Hermine and Ian possibly. Let's see if that will happen .
Quoting 657. thetwilightzone:




it may help too read back a little be for posting so that way you no whats been going on we been talking about may be a center reforming at 22N and 84W


I'm aware of what other posts have said. I'm posting my $0.02.
Im confused, is it strengthening or not? I see some comments saying yes and some saying no lol
Quoting 636. FOREX:

no

Thanks. I have a hard time seeing what's what from my phone.
09L/TD/XX/CX
Wunderground should offer $50 to the 1st person who correctly pronounces "Golfo de Guanahacabibes"

The Rainbow IR image sure can play tricks on the eyes making it appear a new center has formed there.
What does decoupled mean in respect to tropical weather?
Quoting 655. Hurricanes101:



That is why it is called an "extrapolated surface pressure". It would still be valid even if they are flying at 10,000 feet


From what I heard on here it sounded like that pressure was for 10,000 feet. Not extrapolated. But okay 1002 wow
Not going to jump to conclusion until hurricane hunters finish their flight. This is why they are the best they investigate all aspects of the storm.
If the center of TD Nine did relocate farther south, it would presumably have more time to strengthen. Regardless, when is the last time there have been five active tropical cyclones between the Atlantic and Eastern/Central Pacific and several other areas of interest? Hawaii needs to monitor Madeline and Lester. Recon missions into Madeline will begin in the morning according to the most recent discussion from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.


im sure many people here watch the iss stream, as the cloud patterns it sometimes shows, are truly remarkable. i've saved hundreds of screen shots of amazing things from 420 km above us, this is one example. :)
Quoting 583. ElConando:

Anyone in Dade County want rain? Well in the next few hours you'll regretting that thought.
Not impressed by the amount of rain here in Miami Dade County,the local Met's for days has being warning that this system will be a huge!! rain event,so far couple of showers at least here in Dade County,maybe that will change with time? who knows?.
Quoting 661. Hurricanes101:

Im confused, is it strengthening or not? I see some comments saying yes and some saying no lol


It's doing what it has always done. Struggling badly while giving signs things might get better. I'm back to thinking that this will always be what it has always been - a semi-organized blob.
Quoting 667. JrWeathermanFL:



From what I heard on here it sounded like that pressure was for 10,000 feet. Not extrapolated. But okay 1002 wow


they are flying at 10,000 feet, but they have a section on tropical Atlantic for extrapolated surface pressure, meaning that they calculate what the surface pressure would be based on other observations.
674. MahFL
Very cold cloudtops now on TD9, there is still hope !
TD9 breaths in during the day and breaths out at night. As long as it has a spin it still has life.
Quoting 600. BobinTampa:

looks like the cone shifted a bit west. Tampa is now barely in it.


The center forecast track is the same, they just narrowed the cone due to increasing confidence. Here's the thing, if you remember Debby and Colin and other gulf coast of FL landfalls, strong winds and training of heavy rain often occurs often well south of landfall, and this is due to the nature of the right side of systems and how they interact with land.

The Tampa Bay area is likely going to see surge, very heavy rain, tropical storm force gusts(closer to the coast) and a tornado threat based on the current track.

If it were to become a hurricane, I would expect a landfall further down the coast, maybe not at Tampa, but closer than the current.

As of now, a hurricane isn't likely, but is still possible enough to mention, probably 20-30% given the NHC is predicting a max intensity of 65 mph and that handful of models bring it up to a hurricane.

It's interesting to note that the NHC is based on a blend of the ecmwf and the GFS tracks, but both of those models have it weaker. I would have the track just a bit south of that for that reason, in that a stronger GFS or strong ecmwf track would likely be a bit further south.

Overall though, whether it makes landfall closer to Perry in the northern Big Bend, or closer to Crystal River in the nature coast, the impacts to the Tampa Bay area shouldn't change too drastically.

As is often the case with eastward moving tropical storms impacting the FL gulf coast, some of the local MET's in Tampa may yet again down play it's impacts like they did with Colin, and Debby, and focus too much on the center.
I actually am going to say we may have a center relocation. The vorticity at 700 and 850 are both near the very tip of western cuba. The rotation down in that area is the MLC and the LLC could be joining it.

It looks like it is trying to get closer to the anticyclone as well.
vis...its.relocating
are we in the clear in South Florida? I'm worried this is going to slap back at us!
680. IDTH
Quoting 661. Hurricanes101:

Im confused, is it strengthening or not? I see some comments saying yes and some saying no lol

I don't believe it is, but some structure changes are being speculated.
WHICH Storm will get to be Hermine?? Who is willing to guess? LOL!
682. IDTH
Quoting 677. Hurricanes101:

I actually am going to say we may have a center relocation. The vorticity at 700 and 850 are both near the very tip of western cuba. The rotation down in that area is the MLC and the LLC could be joining it.

I noticed that as well.
who wants to be Hermine! TD #8 or TD #9!
Quoting 679. CCSoFLA79:

are we in the clear in South Florida? I'm worried this is going to slap back at us!


I would say the chances are extremely low that it would do that. You could still get some rain down there though.
Off topic, but does Cuba still disallow the AF Reserve HH and NOAA planes from flying in their territorial waters?
The storm is clearly decoupling with the LLC ejecting out to the NW. Looks like we may have a center relocation taking place on the western tip of Cuba with the lower pressures there. Weak systems tend to do this a lot.
Quoting 683. bigwes6844:

who wants to be Hermine! TD #8 or TD #9!


i think that TD 8 should be Hermine, and TD 9 should be Ian.
Yet again 2016 takes another one....
Quoting 677. Hurricanes101:

I actually am going to say we may have a center relocation. The vorticity at 700 and 850 are both near the very tip of western cuba. The rotation down in that area is the MLC and the LLC could be joining it.


Exactly. That's why we have such a large area of low pressure around 1002 Mb. IR suggest a spin around the eastern tip of Cuba. HH will probably find lower pressures in their next pass, as well as stronger winds to the E or NE.
Very nice, TD 8. You've got it.
Pressures are definitely falling in TD 9, not sure if its actually intensifying, but 1004-1006 mbar pressures are now being consistently found throughout the cyclone.
Quoting 684. George1938:



I would say the chances are extremely low that it would do that. You could still get some rain down there though.


Wonderful!! Thank you for clarifying that.
Quoting 683. bigwes6844:

who wants to be Hermine! TD #8 or TD #9!

None because storms take time, energy and money. oh and lots of beer
696. A4Guy
Meanwhile...over at the other end of the basin....

Quoting 683. bigwes6844:

who wants to be Hermine! TD #8 or TD #9!

It's a bit of a contrived competition, but I can think of 1002 reasons TD9 will get there first...
698. MahFL
Quoting 666. Kevin77:

What does decoupled mean in respect to tropical weather?


Tropical storms have a least 2 centers, one in the lower atmosphere and one higher up, if they are aligned the storm is said to be coupled, if they are misaligned ( due to shear ), they are decoupled. It's like an old fashioned spinning top as it slows down and is about to fall over.
When all the centers are lined up the storm is said be be stacked or vertically stacked, like Ritz Crackers in a handy pack. The storm then has a better chance of becoming strong.
Quoting 693. CCSoFLA79:



Wonderful!! Thank you for clarifying that.


still just check in with the nhc or local wx every morning and evening.
Hello, my name is Guy and I suffer from tropical depression. For over a week now I've had visions of spins, swirls, and rotations, many of which were naked. As soon as one would disappear another one would suddenly appear. Sometimes I see swirls within swirls. It's quite maddening!
Quoting 687. 62901IL:



i think that TD 8 should be Hermine, and TD 9 should be Ian.

so I guess the storm off Africa will be the J or K storm
Quoting 693. CCSoFLA79:



Wonderful!! Thank you for clarifying that.


I wish I felt as confident. I don't like the fact that (a) the TD "officially" slowed its W/NW crawl down to 4 mph. already -- according to that last advisory -- and (b) the fact that satellite and pressure readings seem to suggest a southward relocation of the COC. Seems to me that could provide for both a stronger storm and something potentially hitting further south on the Fla. Gulf Coast than has been talked about today.
Slo-goin'
I bet they find 999 Mb next pass. This system looks great right now.
Quoting 606. 69Viking:



It didn't shift West, the cone narrowed. The cone narrowed but the bulls eye shift west a little
ok so I am getting that script error from one of the posts on here. Anyone know which one is causing it?
This isn't shear ripping her apart as there is very little shear presently, we've have seen this system eject numerous LLCs over the past week and I believe she has done so once again. She is reforming under the current convective burst directly under the ULAC and directly over the Gulf Stream!
Quoting 697. CBJeff:


It's a bit of a contrived competition, but I can think of 1002 reasons TD9 will get there first...

I think TD should get the name instead it fought a very long time!!!
Quoting 702. OrchidGrower:



I wish I felt as confident. I don't like the fact that (a) the TD "officially" slowed its W/NW crawl down to 4 mph. already -- according to that last advisory -- and (b) the fact that satellite and pressure readings seem to suggest a southward relocation of the COC. Seems to me that could provide for both a stronger storm and something potentially hitting further south on the Fla. Gulf Coast than has been talked about today.


That's why I was worried! I don't know if south means more of a south hook. I have a big Labor Day weekend planned and I'm so worried it's going to ruin it, and the way this storm has behaved makes me wonder. I'm in N. Broward
Quoting 701. bigwes6844:


so I guess the storm off Africa will be the J or K storm


What storm off Africa? There are no invests out there currently.
Wouldn't it be funny if the tropical wave over Aftica became Hermine before TD 8 and TD 9. Ughh!!!! Imagine the frustration
Quoting 700. washingaway:

Hello, my name is Guy and I suffer from tropical depression. For over a week now I've had visions of spins, swirls, and rotations, many of which were naked. As soon as one would disappear another one would suddenly appear. Sometimes I see swirls within swirls. It's quite maddening!

Not to mention the blobs and flare-ups and dry air indigestion.

And all this is happening on many levels.
NOAA3 Mission #07 into CYCLONE
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

As of 21:52 UTC Aug 29, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 23.63°N 86.78°W
Bearing: 90° at 330 kt
Altitude: 3201 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 13 kt at 33°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1005.2 mb







717. IDTH
Quoting 707. Patrap:



Oh man I really hope the center didn't just relocate.
Quoting 700. washingaway:

Hello, my name is Guy and I suffer from tropical depression. For over a week now I've had visions of spins, swirls, and rotations, many of which were naked. As soon as one would disappear another one would suddenly appear. Sometimes I see swirls within swirls. It's quite maddening!

Welcome to the weather insane asylum
719. A4Guy
Quoting 713. FunnelVortex:



What storm off Africa? There are no invests out there currently.


Take a look at my post 696 - and the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.
There will be one tomorrow or Weds.
Quoting 713. FunnelVortex:



What storm off Africa? There are no invests out there currently.
will be in a couple of days maybe depending on how it does over water

18z GFS landfall around the same...



At 48 hours it looks a little bit further west BEFORE the slowwwww turn happens...

Quoting 671. Hurricane1956:

Not impressed by the amount of rain here in Miami Dade County,the local Met's for days has being warning that this system will be a huge!! rain event,so far couple of showers at least here in Dade County,maybe that will change with time? who knows?.


Guaranteed to begin as soon as I go out to walk the dogs!
Southerly inflow shouldn't be much of an issue anymore! She's opening up and tapping into the Caribbean quite effectively now.
RIP Gene Wilder.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.

Quoting 668. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Not going to jump to conclusion until hurricane hunters finish their flight. This is why they are the best they investigate all aspects of the storm.


When will that be?
TD 9 and, to a much lesser extent, TD 8, are garnering all the attention of late... but Gaston's EWRC seems to be done and his movement has started up again. Think he can be a major again? I do.
Quoting 722. pingon:



Guaranteed to begin as soon as I go out to walk the dogs!
let me know when you are at the door I will turn on the tap
12z WRF model..in 48 hours 974mb



The Hurricane Expert on TWC said "we will not see rapid intensification with T.D. 9, which we were afraid of."
Too early to make that claim?
Whoa Nellie!!!...
Quoting 682. IDTH:


I noticed that as well.


Will the llc ejected out to the NW join the 'alley' we were talking about?
For whom it may concern.
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter
Don't see any way this isn't a TS now and curious to hear from people much more expert than myself as to how this center relocation changes things with regards to possible landfall, strength, timing, etc. Did any model come close to depicting her riding the coast of Cuba like she did all day today and getting this far south?
looks like the track of td9 is moving more norrth as i expected ... here in daytona when they say its comming close to us 3 to 5 days out it usually moves further away each day after that,, and thank god we only get sprinkles and a little breezy wind
Quoting 730. Sfloridacat5:

The Hurricane Expert on TWC said "we will not see rapid intensification with T.D. 9, which we were afraid of."
Too early to make that claim?



Yeah that guy is completely out of the loop right now.
Quoting 726. Kitkat101:



When will that be?
They're flying a figure 8 pattern, looks like they're going in for another pass. This will give us the best analysis and structure of the storm and should help out the models.
Quoting 724. PensacolaDoug:

RIP Gene Wilder.


Indeed, and thanks for all the laughs!
daytona as of 5pm looks to be almost out of the cone
Quoting 730. Sfloridacat5:

The Hurricane Expert on TWC said "we will not see rapid intensification with T.D. 9, which we were afraid of."
Too early to make that claim?


I'd say it is too early
it looks like a lot of the short range models are wanting to intensify TD9 quickly in a short amount of time..

I guess we will find out tonight if thats the case..



Quoting 724. PensacolaDoug:

RIP Gene Wilder.
I will always remember him as Willy Wonka.
Quoting 729. ncstorm:

12z WRF model..in 48 hours 974mb





NOT GOOD. That's nearly 88 West at 25 North. It's well West of the "cone of certainty". If that is true, it's possible that TD9 may miss the trough or be slower than expected to meet the trough, pulling it more toward Alabama / Mississippi.
Does seem there are low level clouds turning into the MLC at western tip of Cuba. Maybe after the full ejection of the gulf LLC, a relocation can happen? How many times can this thing eject itself from itself? Seriously, isn't this about tenth time?
746. IDTH
Quoting 730. Sfloridacat5:

The Hurricane Expert on TWC said "we will not see rapid intensification with T.D. 9, which we were afraid of."
Too early to make that claim?


yes, but only if the center relocated, if not, I wouldn't be too concerned. However if the center did relocate, it could place itself right on top of the anticylone, creating a great outflow channel and allowing the storm to breathe.
Oops, I forgot to add the sat loop.
Quoting 666. Kevin77:

What does decoupled mean in respect to tropical weather?
Tropical cyclones have a low pressure center (LLC) rotating counterclockwise (N-Hemisphere) in the lower troposphere and a high pressure in the upper troposphere (ULH) rotating clockwise (N-Hemisphere) . The ULH provides outflow for the rising air in the storm, keeping the engine running. As the storm gets stronger, the centers align. If the storm is under shear, the centers of the LLC and the ULH become mis-aligned and the structure is tilted, lowering the efficiency of the engine. "Decoupled" usually means that the ULH gets totally blown away by shear. I do not see that as the case for TD 9 right now.


Quoting 736. Tornadocane:



Yeah that guy is completely out of the loop right now.


I don't know why I'm watching it.
The girl just said the population of Tampa is 160,000 people. NO!, That is wrong. That is the population of people at threat in Tampa from a 10 foot storm surge.

I turned the channel.
This is my first time posting, but I've been lurking for a very, very long time. In fact, I discovered this blog while watching and waiting for Katrina to make landfall. I've learned a tremendous amount about these storms over the years, but I'm confused about TD 09. Can someone explain why the experts are expecting a Northeastern turn toward Florida? Please do pardon my ignorance.
753. Tcwx2
Test.
754. IDTH
Quoting 748. washingaway:

Oops, I forgot to add the sat loop.


Okay, that is not a weakning storm, there is clearly an outflow channel developing around the system.
Quoting 746. IDTH:


yes, but only if the center relocated, if not, I wouldn't be too concerned. However if the center did relocate, it could place itself right on top of the anticylone, creating a great outflow channel and allowing the storm to breathe.


That's a big "if."
He made a special point to show the naked COC and say that T.D. 9 was very disorganized and unimpressive.
Quoting 743. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I will always remember him as Willy Wonka.


He did sing in that movie "Is a hurricane a blowing" while in the tunnel of death and chocolate.
757. IDTH
Quoting 755. Sfloridacat5:



That's a big "if."
He made a special point to show the naked COC and say that T.D. 9 was very disorganized and unimpressive.

It is, but plenty of speculation about it. We'll know as soon as HH come back around.
758. Ed22
Quoting 731. Kowaliga:

Whoa Nellie!!!...

Future invest 92L is well organised about to leave in the next 6 to 12 hours from now looks very impressive, furthermore it has plenty of spin associated with it right now; I'll give it 40%/80%.
Dade county is such a huge county. Currently there's dry stable air across the NE part of the county, but in the southern half, it's full of rain and moisture.
Quoting 744. RetainingH2O:


NOT GOOD. That's nearly 88 West at 25 North. It's well West of the "cone of certainty". If that is true, it's possible that TD9 may miss the trough or be slower than expected to meet the trough, pulling it more toward Alabama / Mississippi.


Don't get caught up on the intensity of mesoscale models, unless you have a well defined core, in which case we do not with 09l. They tend to blow every little spin into a major. Scott could pass gas and the HWRF would turn it into a Cat 5. Then again with all the hot air that would create.... I guess that is plausible
ha take that! (I'm not referring to the Bahamas BTW)
The latest pass of where Recon believes the center is has lower pressures waiting to see if that is official around 1003-1004 mb on latest pass
Nice shot of TDs #8 and #9:

Quoting 755. Sfloridacat5:



That's a big "if."
He made a special point to show the naked COC and say that T.D. 9 was very disorganized and unimpressive.

If center relocated further South than modeled, WRF 12Z showing TD9 well West of the cone, weaker than anticipated system... it could change the projected track considerably to the West.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 11m11 minutes ago  Cranston, RI

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flas h-vis-short.html …
Mid level center over western Cuba still 100 miles south of Low Level center. Like throwing your back out.Not Strong

(For your entertainment only!) Next CV coming across the MDR weaker. Looks like this run it makes it to the GOM.
768. IDTH
Quoting 764. Neapolitan:

Nice shot of TDs #8 and #9:



Look at all that convective activity.
Quoting 744. RetainingH2O:


NOT GOOD. That's nearly 88 West at 25 North. It's well West of the "cone of certainty". If that is true, it's possible that TD9 may miss the trough or be slower than expected to meet the trough, pulling it more toward Alabama / Mississippi.



Thats where i have been thinking it will go all along. I dont know but just a gut feeling. But the experts will prolly be right and it will go to FL.
770. Ed22
Quoting 717. IDTH:


Oh man I really hope the center didn't just relocate.
Well yes it relocated little bit south, I'll never see a storm like this hugging the northern coast of Cuba like Tropical Depression Nine does; we'll never see it again.


content://media/external/file/96009
Quoting 765. RetainingH2O:


If center relocated further South than modeled, WRF 12Z showing TD9 well West of the cone, weaker than anticipated system... it could change the projected track considerably to the West.


It would actually shift the track further south, not west. The turn is going to happen either way. If the center relocates further south, than the system wont be as far north when it turns.
Quoting 765. RetainingH2O:


If center relocated further South than modeled, WRF 12Z showing TD9 well West of the cone, weaker than anticipated system... it could change the projected track considerably to the West.

Thats exactly what I was thinking, but wasn't sure so I didn't say anything :)
So its losing another center for one either to the south or east. Man didnt see that one coming.
I too feel a relocation on TD9 / Hermine has occurred to the west /southwest.
Should shift models left....
About to jump in the water.

*model run not a forecast
Can somebody tell me why there isn't much talk about the tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa? Some weather agencies, like Accuweather, have talked about the possibility of this developing into a possible hurricane down the road and maintaining a course in the general direction of the Caribbean islands and maybe North America. Thoughts on this??
Quoting 767. unknowncomic:

(For your entertainment only!) Next CV coming across the MDR weaker. Looks like this run it makes it to the GOM.



All I want is a well organized cyclone, not another invest like 97L and 99L.
About to jump in the water.
780. Ed22
Quoting 754. IDTH:


Okay, that is not a weakning storm, there is clearly an outflow channel developing around the system.
Its beautiful developing system (TD9).
781. IDTH
Quoting 770. Ed22:

Well yes it relocated little bit south, I'll never see a storm like hugging the northern coast of Cuba like Tropical Depression Nine does; we'll never see it again.


content://media/external/file/96009

Uhm no, that's not the reason at all. Now it's closer (in fact it may be over) the anticyclone which could lead to a stronger storm. I don't want that to happen.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 776. washingtonian125:


*model run not a forecast
Need help with those shutters!
Extreme outer bands of TD 8 coming into my area now bringing plenty of wind and roar, as an extreme weather junkie this is both exciting and depressing considering the relative weakness of the storm. It's a blessing though wouldn't want to be waiting to see what 9 does in the next few days.
Quoting 758. Ed22:

Future invest 92L is well organised about to leave in the next 6 to 12 hours from now looks very impressive, furthermore it has plenty of spin associated with it right now; I'll give it 40%/80%.

But don't step in the SAL! (lol)
Some mid level spin is now apparent on satellite imagery as TD09 slows down. Should be interesting tonight to see if the lower pressures being recorded by Recon further south mean another LLC could be forming. If that is the case there is a nice ULAC by the NW tip of Cuba which can help TD09 strengthen quite a bit. Overall this situation is fragile and needs close monitoring.
TD 09 is still having trouble vertically stacking
788. IDTH
Quoting 771. Hurricanes101:



It would actually shift the track further south, not west. The turn is going to happen either way. If the center relocates further south, than the system wont be as far north when it turns.

May also lead to it being sheared less as well.
A weak invest east of the Leewards in early september... really? Nah....
Quoting 777. lobdelse81:

Can somebody tell me why there isn't much talk about the tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa? Some weather agencies, like Accuweather, have talked about the possibility of this developing into a possible hurricane down the road and maintaining a course in the general direction of the Caribbean islands and maybe North America. Thoughts on this??


If there's anything we've learned in the past two weeks, it's that long range forecasts are barely reliable
791. Ed22
Quoting 777. lobdelse81:

Can somebody tell me why there isn't much talk about the tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa? Some weather agencies, like Accuweather, have talked about the possibility of this developing into a possible hurricane down the road and maintaining a course in the general direction of the Caribbean islands and maybe North America. Thoughts on this??
its possible condition are ripe for that development to take place.
It hasn't relocated.. West winds under the last vortex... Still moving wnwLink
793. IDTH
NEW BLOG POST, Let us leave this place
Pretty suspenseful eh? Wonder what HH will find. This 99L/TD 09L has had quite the life......What will the future bring? LOL. It definitely has a bag of tricks along for the ride.
Quoting 749. JrWeathermanFL:




These pictures are meaningless to most of us watchers? What is it? What is the point of posting these without some identifying info at least?
Been offline for a while, but checking up on 09L... I see mentioned naked swirl associated with 09L, and one look at VIS imagery tells me that naked swirl isn't gonna stay naked too much longer. Already has appearance of some showers developing right around it again. Also looks like some decent outflow over the system right now. As the sun sets this evening, we should see that convection fire right back up and I say we are looking at a strengthening system.
Quoting 745. washingaway:

Does seem there are low level clouds turning into the MLC at western tip of Cuba. Maybe after the full ejection of the gulf LLC, a relocation can happen? How many times can this thing eject itself from itself? Seriously, isn't this about tenth time?


Persistent CV seeds are 'forced' to kick out inferior competing llcs as they continue their forward motion, particularly the low-riders who splash down at 10o or lower off Africa. They take the longest to landfall, with the stalling associating with center re-formations.

Click to embiggen :

That's upper level winds, data from 2000z. Looks like it's got dual outflows established, or almost, with the ULL to its northwest helping create one, and another one going toward the southeastern GOM. Vorticity has reached v=100. That plus these hot towers at Dmin, that S shape to it, a circular shape of the larger system, and some models supporting intensification in the short term... I'm not liking it. But I'm just a newbie with no qualifications, so take with a grain of salt probably.
Quoting 795. GrimeyGal:



These pictures are meaningless to most of us watchers? What is it? What is the point of posting these without some identifying info at least?


If you click on the picture you'd see it is 07L which is Hurricane Gaston in the central Atlantic.
Sun's shining on Lester. Looks to be continuing intensification. The core is only 300 nm across, probably why it's a Cat-4 and still above 950 mb



edit: sad to hear about Gene Wilder.
Lots of people must be looking at satellite shots, my go-to site has been slloowww

Quoting 799. CW7859:



If you click on the picture you'd see it is 07L which is Hurricane Gaston in the central Atlantic.


You're not wrong, but Gaston and Lester aren't terribly different looking. Posting the graphics with lat/lon might be helpful.

Quoting 743. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I will always remember him as Willy Wonka.


And the Waco Kid
802. MahFL
Quoting 777. lobdelse81:

Can somebody tell me why there isn't much talk about the tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa? Some weather agencies, like Accuweather, have talked about the possibility of this developing into a possible hurricane down the road and maintaining a course in the general direction of the Caribbean islands and maybe North America. Thoughts on this??


It's 5 days away from the Islands, we'll talk about it then.
Well, Levi has a new Tidbit up and the prognosis is poor. After all of this, TD9 will be a sheared dud for the rest of its genesis. I wonder if we will ever see another buzzsaw in the Gulf?
Quoting 784. CloudyWithAChance:

Extreme outer bands of TD 8 coming into my area now bringing plenty of wind and roar, as an extreme weather junkie this is both exciting and depressing considering the relative weakness of the storm. It's a blessing though wouldn't want to be waiting to see what 9 does in the next few days.


where are you located? I'm in Surf City
806. beell
.



Quoting 803. NOLALawyer:

Well, Levi has a new Tidbit up and the prognosis is poor. After all of this, TD9 will be a sheared dud for the rest of its genesis. I wonder if we will ever see another buzzsaw in the Gulf?

I didn't get that from watching his video... It's still forecast to be a tropical storm, may have obstacles in its way for intensification,and could possibly intensify going across Florida.
808. vis0

Quoting 532. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well 08 got numbered first that would get H 09 came later so that gets an I but only if both become named at same time it could go the other if 09 gets named first
can one imagine how 12 years from now youngins studying / referencing weather sites as WxU trying to figure out how Disturbance 2 (off Africa) became Hermine as most bloggers for 3 days posted how in 3 days Hermine will be nearing the UsofA coast, thinking wow a 80+-mph forward motion / MOVING TS.

Remember the WxModel that was zig zaging between  Cuba and Keys  it was correct (at that area)

on another side note bet some wanting Hermine to become big wanted to use "Hermine Muntser" Headlines

everyone ket your erasers ready...practice on "ket"
Sorry, can't remember. Was this "hanging around" near Cuba forcast or is this unexpected? If so, it must change the models I would think. What about the timing of the front etc.? Any thoughts on that anyone?
810. vis0

Quoting 665. westernmob:

Wunderground should offer $50 to the 1st person who correctly pronounces "Golfo de Guanahacabibes"

The Rainbow IR image sure can play tricks on the eyes making it appear a new center has formed there.
other reply at my zilly blog link auto scrolls to my comment...link

corrrrrrentheain  ...no???
This is from a meteorologist here .  Can you tell me what he is talking about?

Getting a little worried......looks like an upper anticyclone is
building overhead tropical depression 9.....located just north of
western Cuba. A growing tropical
cyclone over 86-88 degree ocean with good outflow aloft is potentially
dangerous. I now expect TD 9 to become a hurricane.....and rapidly
intensifying to a major hurricane isn't out of the question before
landfall. I strongly advise
everyone living or vacationing along the Florida west coast between
Panama City and Tampa to closely monitor the strengthening storm.
Tropical Storm and possibly Hurricane Watches/ Warnings are likely for
portions of the Florida west coast within 48 hours.
Quoting 761. washingtonian125:

ha take that! (I'm not referring to the Bahamas BTW)


Anything is possible, I've seen otherwise, but I'm going to guess it is out to sea for that one after the Bahamas. Maybe a threat to NC?
Quoting 803. NOLALawyer:

Well, Levi has a new Tidbit up and the prognosis is poor. After all of this, TD9 will be a sheared dud for the rest of its genesis. I wonder if we will ever see another buzzsaw in the Gulf?


Kinda what I am thinking as well. Despite seemingly favorable conditions, storms near land areas in the Atlantic basin seem to almost always struggle these days.
Quoting 813. HurrMichaelOrl:



Kinda what I am thinking as well. Despite seemingly favorable conditions, storms near land areas in the Atlantic basin seem to almost always struggle these days.


That's not a bad thing though.
Quoting 803. NOLALawyer:

Well, Levi has a new Tidbit up and the prognosis is poor. After all of this, TD9 will be a sheared dud for the rest of its genesis. I wonder if we will ever see another buzzsaw in the Gulf?


I watched it, and I'm wondering if you actually saw it, because he is expecting it to strengthen into a TS as well. Sure not a buzzsaw, but why would you want a buzzsaw hurricane in the Gulf? Personally I'm glad TD9 isn't a buzzsaw getting ready to slam into FL.
Quoting 798. 999Ai2016:


Click to embiggen :

That's upper level winds, data from 2000z. Looks like it's got dual outflows established, or almost, with the ULL to its northwest helping create one, and another one going toward the southeastern GOM. Vorticity has reached v=100. That plus these hot towers at Dmin, that S shape to it, a circular shape of the larger system, and some models supporting intensification in the short term... I'm not liking it. But I'm just a newbie with no qualifications, so take with a grain of salt probably.


Yeah there is actually a nice anti-cyclone begging to become established, as it moves away from Cuba, the land disrupting the flow around the inner core shouldn't be an issue anymore. Although this looks ominous, keep in mind that the low and mid level vorticity are still in the process of becoming vertically stacked. Through tomorrow and into Wednesday, there should be on opportunity for continued strengthening.

If this was a well structured system, I would agree there would be cause for concern for rapid intensification. If you remember Rita and Katrina during their earlier stages, they too struggled for a while due structural issues. The same is true for TD9, it takes a long time to resolve internal core issues.

If TD9 was strong TS already around 65 mph without all the internal core struggles, I think there would be good reason to worry.

Thankfully we aren't seeing that though, it's going to take a while to develop the structure to have a chance at getting a lot stronger. We can't ignore a hurricane, but hurricane intensity is a lower chance at landfall than TS much for the reason I mentioned.