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TD 9 Forms in Central Atlantic

By: Bob Henson 7:05 PM GMT on September 16, 2015

The last few days of rare September quietude in the global tropics are coming to an end, with a new tropical depression in the Atlantic and a named tropical storm in the Pacific. Tropical Depression 9, located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, is moving slowly toward the north-northwest. Although TD 9 has a closed circulation and a reasonable amount of shower and thunderstorm activity, it remains a weak system, with top sustained winds of only 30 mph. TD 9’s north-northwest motion reflects the increasing southwesterly upper-level flow that will combine with easterly trade winds to put the depression under strengthening wind shear. This shear will dent TD 9’s chances at growth, even as it approaches an area of sea-surface temperatures 2-3°C above average (around 29°C or 84°F). The 0600 GMT runs of the HWRF and GFDL models bring TD 9 up to tropical storm strength for a brief time during the next 24 to 48 hours, but the official NHC forecast keeps TD 9 short of becoming a named storm throughout the next 120 hours. There could be another window for TD 9 to strengthen in the open Atlantic early next week if its circulation survives the trek.


Figure 1. Visible-wavelength image of Invest 95L, collected by the GOES-East floater satellite at 1445 GMT (11:45 am EDT) on Wednesday, September 16. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Behind TD 9 is Invest 95L, located well southwest of the Cape Verde islands. With its origins further east than TD 9, 95L has a bit more time to potentially develop into a tropical storm before it encounters the wind shear and relatively dry air that’s been dominating the western and central North Atlantic. NHC gives 95L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Friday. Most statistical and dynamical models gradually intensify 95L to tropical-storm strength while bringing it west-northwest to higher latitudes, reducing the odds it will make it anywhere near North America or the Caribbean.

There are no systems of immediate concern for tropical development near the Gulf or Atlantic coast, although a broad area of surface low pressure will combine with some upper-level support and a weak surface boundary to bring heavy rains to much of the Florida peninsula over the next several days. No flash flood watches were in effect on Wednesday morning, but the NOAA Weather Prediction Center is calling for widespread 2-3” amounts over the southern half of Florida. This could be good news for the Everglades region west of Miami, an area in moderate to severe drought that was largely missed by the extensive rains across Florida this summer.

In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovanh is still on track to become a major typhoon over the next several days. Krovanh could affect the very sparsely populated Iwo Jima and nearby islands as it strengthens rapidly; the Joint Typhoon Warning center brings Krovanh to Category 4 strength in the next 48 hours as it begins recurving over warm waters with relatively light wind shear.


Figure 2.. Enhanced infrared MTSAT image of rapidly organizing Tropical Storm Krovanh from 1714 GMT (1:14 pm EDT) on Wednesday, September 16. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Flash-flood death toll rises in Utah; Henri’s remnants sock Europe
Some of the worst impacts associated with tropical cyclones this year are happening long after the storms dissipate. Moisture from ex-Hurricane Linda was entrained into rich monsoonal flow that swept across the U.S. Southwest on Monday and Tuesday. As an upper-level trough interacted with the moisture, heavy thunderstorms erupted on Monday over far southern Utah, causing two deadly flash floods that killed at least 16 people. Two vehicles were swept away near the town of Hildale (see our blog post from Tuesday), with 12 people killed and one child still missing. The disturbing photo below (Figure 3) shows the ability of floodwaters to wreak destruction. Many people killed in floods die from trauma rather than from drowning, as pointed out in this overview of flood impacts published in the open-access journal PLOS. During flash floods in mountainous areas, the percentage of deaths caused by trauma is especially high.


Figure 3. The twisted wreckage of two vans that were washed away in a flash flood with women and children inside on Monday, September 14, 2015, rests on the bank of Short Creek near Hildale, Utah, on Tuesday, September 15. Image credit: George Frey/Getty Images.

Just to the northwest of Hildale, in Zion National Park, four canyoneers were killed and three others were missing on Wednesday morning after floodwaters coursed through the narrow Keyhole Canyon on Monday. Zion’s slot canyons are notorious for extremely rapid flash flooding, with little or no ability to escape the water. Less than a mile long, Keyhole Canyon is considered a relatively easy trek, although a permit is required. The website canyonyeeringusa.com rates the generalized flash flood risk of Keyhole as “low”, adding “The collection zone is small, and the canyon short. But it does flash big at times, so don't get caught in there!” Rangers warned visitors on Monday morning of probable flash-flood danger, according to a park spokesperson quoted in the Los Angeles Times. After the second of two thunderstorm complexes passed through around 4:30 pm, the flow through the nearby North Fork of the Virgin River rose from 55 to 2630 cubic feet per second in 15 minutes, a level recorded about once every three years.

Monday’s death toll in Utah appears to have been the largest in a local/regional U.S. flash flood episode since June 11, 2010, when at least 20 people were killed by a flash flood that swept through a remote campsite in southwest Arkansas.


Figure 4. WunderMap radar imagery shows intense thunderstorms stretching from western Germany to southern France at 1445 GMT (4:45 pm CEST) on Wednesday, September 16.

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Henri--having traveled thousands of miles across the Atlantic over the past five days--got swept into a strong midlatitude trough that pushed a broken line of powerful thunderstorms into Germany and France on Wednesday evening. The French newspaper Le Monde reported that at least two people in France were killed by high winds in today’s storms, with several other injured. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Lyon’s Bron airport, the highest wind speed on record for that site in September, according to Nick Wiltgen at weather.com.

Bob Henson

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Shear over Florida will keep the low in check as it moves into the Peninsula"

Quoting 466. islander101010:

tidal waves should be entering the Hi. islands 6.05am


Which timezone?
Will finally note that the upper level TUTT cell draped into the Eastern Gulf continues to drop in cooler air from above which is driving the intense baroclinic convection over Florida:



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 45.3W AT 17/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 925 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ABOUT 1225 NM W
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N42W TO 18N43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N41W TO 23N38W. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS CENTERED NEAR
12N32W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 17N
MOVING W-NW 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-14N
BETWEEN 30W-39W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
507. MahFL
Quoting 503. Articuno:



Which timezone?


"THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE INITIAL WAVE IS

0311 AM HST THU 17 SEP 2015"

I think that's 09:11 EDT.
i lived in san juan at the time of hugo. what i remember about hugo st croix was govts failure to protect businesses and homeowners from groups of marauding bandits. it took the federal govt a couple days to figure out what was happening. i bet dr masters remembers that storm well too.
No "Breakfast on the sideboard" over "There" today either... Seems that they forgot to pay Danica.

"NOTICE: This domain name expired on 9/12/2015 and is pending renewal or deletion".
And in the bigger picture, TD 9 is almost toast and 95L is still hanging in there; TD 9 might "get out of the way" but it looks to me like 95L has already started to jog towards the NW into the same shear that is tearing TD 9 apart at the higher latitudes:

Quoting 507. MahFL:



"THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE INITIAL WAVE IS

0311 AM HST THU 17 SEP 2015"

I think that's 09:11 EDT.

Thank you, do you have any clue of the severity of the waves (height)?
I have relatives in around Hilo, to be specific.
Looking to be a wet day here in Sarasota. And my umbrella seems to have gone missing...
513. MahFL
Quoting 511. Articuno:


Thank you, do you have any clue of the severity of the waves (height)?
I have relatives in around Hilo, to be specific.


Low. The HI NWS page has the info :

HI NWS
Brad Panovich ‏@wxbrad 5m5 minutes ago
Remnants of #Grace trying to get it's act together near Southwest Florida.
Very heavy rain getting ready to move into the Orlando Metro. Just unreal how wet it has been since the beginning of June. I've personally have never seen a Summer so wet. It's so wet my Oak Trees in my front yard have green mold in areas of the trees where it stays wet as it has rained nearly everyday for since Mid July.

Quoting 468. tampabaymatt:




NHC much more modest about it, saying if anything does develop it would likely be after the low crosses Florida.
moderate rain kind of calm e cen fl.
Quoting 511. Articuno:


Thank you, do you have any clue of the severity of the waves (height)?
I have relatives in around Hilo, to be specific.


Link
Hurricane Hugo in Luquillo, PR, Sep 17 1989 [Link].
00z UKMET precip map up to 72 hours

You can start to see some of the pending organization of the low on the vis-loops off to the NW of the tip of Cuba but the whole mess is headed into Florida:

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A MAJOR TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRIKE THE STATE OF HAWAII. HOWEVER...SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND
STRONG CURRENTS MAY OCCUR ALONG ALL COASTS THAT COULD BE A HAZARD
TO SWIMMERS AND BOATERS AS WELL AS TO PERSONS NEAR THE SHORE AT
BEACHES AND IN HARBORS AND MARINAS. THE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL.
An expert on TWC commented this morning about posts on social media concerning one model forecast showing a ts forming in the gom today. He went on to explain how wrong it was and should be considered hype but but we could see something form off the Carolinas. Certainly a wet day for Florida but no tropical storms.
Quoting 516. win1gamegiantsplease:



NHC much more modest about it, saying if anything does develop it would likely be after the low crosses Florida.


That seems like a more plausible scenario given the shear in the Gulf.
The rain finally let up in St. Lucie County; that is, Fort Pierce .
looks like the Low will enter NW florida anywhere from Tampa southward, depending on which model your looking at..its a wait and see game thru the next few days,but regardless of development, stay alert, there already was a tornado in Davie florida last night..anytime a Low pressure crosses the state, we could get surprises huh
Quoting 525. tampabaymatt:



That seems like a more plausible scenario given the shear in the Gulf.


Conditions are hostile out there. We've seen already before this summer, these weak lows can bring copious amout of rain. I will say that I'm surprised we have not got much the past two days. The cloud deck yesterday seem to surpress storms from firing.
Quoting 528. Bucsboltsfan:



Conditions are hostile out there. We've seen already before this summer, these weak lows can bring copious amout of rain. I will say that I'm surprised we have not got much the past two days. The cloud deck yesterday seem to surpress storms from firing.


Agreed. I'm very surprised the Tampa Bay area has received such little rainfall from this. Only a trace of rain for me yesterday, and barely a trace so far today. The NWS is only calling for diurnal thunderstorms to develop. So, it seems likely that if daytime heating doesn't kick in, we may avoid the heavy rains again today. We'll see; I'll be watching the radar like a hawk until this low heads out of here.
Quoting 524. Bucsboltsfan:

An expert on TWC commented this morning about posts on social media concerning one model forecast showing a ts forming in the gom today. He went on to explain how wrong it was and should be considered hype but but we could see something form off the Carolinas. Certainly a wet day for Florida but no tropical storms.
maybe a hurricane off the southeast coast in five days from now
We don't have any bouys near the approximate location of the Gulf low at the moment and air pressure is steady 200 miles East of Naples.................However, winds are out of the NW which reflect the lower level convergence pattern that is trying to form:

Station 42003
NDBC
Location:
 26.007N 85.648W
Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2015 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: NW (310°) at 1.9 kt gusting to 5.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (84°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and steady
Air Temperature: 77.9 F
Dew Point: 72.9 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F

Whatever this system is, it has a tremendous amount of energy. It is so dark right now in North Broward, it looks like nighttime. The tremendous amount of lightning and rain is not the typical summer thunderstorms. It has been raining steadily since last night. For some reason, the base reflectivity maps aren't depicting the local conditions.

10+ year lurker here. I was just wondering if there was a link or website you guys can give me that shows old radar from the past 12-24 hours. I wanted to see the cell that came through this morning around the palm beaches. The rain gage at my golf course read 4.3 inches. Thanks!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
850 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING FROM MIAMI SHOWS RATHER HIGH HELICITY VALUES IN
THE 100-115 M2/S2 RANGE, WITH 0-1 KM VALUES AT 103. THIS SUPPORTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE GULF DRIFTS NE AND KEEPS OUR REGION UNDER DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, MODELS SHOWING SFC-850 MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE THE GULF LOW SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR SE FLORIDA THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST WHICH ALREADY HAS HIGH POPS
FOR TODAY. /MOLLEDA

&&

535. MahFL
I got more rain today in the first band of rain than I did all day yesterday, 0.47in so far, and it's still raining.


ones we get this low on southeast coast! we need to watch it!
Quoting 533. Ryandking89:

10 year lurker here. I was just wondering if there was a link or website you guys can give me that shows old radar from the past 12-24 hours. I wanted to see the cell that came through this morning around the palm beaches. The rain gage at my golf course read 4.3 inches. Thanks!


Click on "Nexrad" above your locations displayed radar and then at the bottom click "Radar History".

Edit: Oh... And welcome to the blog!
539. MahFL
Quoting 533. Ryandking89:

10+ year lurker here. I was just wondering if there was a link or website you guys can give me that shows old radar from the past 12-24 hours. I wanted to see the cell that came through this morning around the palm beaches. The rain gage at my golf course read 4.3 inches. Thanks!


Radar history
The broad cyclonic circulation is starting to rotate due West of SW Florida and moving very slowly towards the West Florida Coast; gonna be a very wet and potentially gusty day in those parts.....................

Southeast sector loop


Quoting 530. hurricanes2018:

maybe a hurricane off the southeast coast in five days from now



seriously????
Im not watching TWC right now. Do you remember if it happened to be Carl Parker that said that? Just curious
Quoting 532. Grothar:

Whatever this system is, it has a tremendous amount of energy. It is so dark right now in North Broward, it looks like nighttime. The tremendous amount of lightning and rain is not the typical summer thunderstorms. It has been raining steadily since last night. For some reason, the base reflectivity maps aren't depicting the local conditions.




Lots of tropical moisture feeding into Florida. These thunderstorms are not our regular sea breeze interaction T storms.
Quoting 540. weathermanwannabe:

The broad cyclonic circulation is starting to rotate due West of SW Florida and moving very slowly towards the West Florida Coast; gonna be a very wet and potentially gusty day in those parts.....................

Southeast sector loop



i hope we get invest 96L soon
I live in Venice Florida which is in Sarasota County on the Gulf Coast. It is not too bad here yet.
Have to wonder how bad the t-storms might get with maximum daytime heating later this afternoon and evening for Florida.
547. MahFL
Quoting 543. Sfloridacat5:



Lots of tropical moisture feeding into Florida. These thunderstorms are not our regular sea breeze interaction T storms.


Correct, all my rain today has been from non thunder clouds.
Quoting 528. Bucsboltsfan:



Conditions are hostile out there. We've seen already before this summer, these weak lows can bring copious amout of rain. I will say that I'm surprised we have not got much the past two days. The cloud deck yesterday seem to surpress storms from firing.


I don't see how we don't get heavy rains and some gusty winds if the low is forecast to come ashore very close to our area
Quoting 546. weathermanwannabe:

Have to wonder how bad the t-storms might get with maximum daytime heating later this afternoon and evening for Florida.


Just like yesterday, here in the Tampa area we have a solid cloud deck which won't allow the sun to do it's job.
HUGE Torrential rain here in Fort Lauderdale. My school is out of power for the 2nd day in a row!!! The thunder sounds like bombs going off. And knee high flooding in the High School Parking Lot!!!
551. MahFL
Quoting 546. weathermanwannabe:

Have to wonder how bad the t-storms might get with maximum daytime heating later this afternoon and evening for Florida.


I won't get any day time heating, it's 73F here and totally overcast.
552. MahFL
Quoting 550. Camerooski:

HUGE Torrential rain here in Fort Lauderdale. My school is out of power for the 2nd day in a row!!! The thunder sounds like bombs going off. And knee high flooding in the High School Parking Lot!!!


Take some pics ?
Quoting 532. Grothar:

Whatever this system is, it has a tremendous amount of energy. It is so dark right now in North Broward, it looks like nighttime. The tremendous amount of lightning and rain is not the typical summer thunderstorms. It has been raining steadily since last night. For some reason, the base reflectivity maps aren't depicting the local conditions.


I was about to go to sleep in my Bio Chem class, not to mention the power is out for the whole school lol
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
850 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING FROM MIAMI SHOWS RATHER HIGH HELICITY VALUES IN
THE 100-115 M2/S2 RANGE, WITH 0-1 KM VALUES AT 103. THIS SUPPORTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE GULF DRIFTS NE AND KEEPS OUR REGION UNDER DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, MODELS SHOWING SFC-850 MB TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE THE GULF LOW SETTING UP ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR SE FLORIDA THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECAST WHICH ALREADY HAS HIGH POPS
FOR TODAY. /MOLLEDA
Quoting 552. MahFL:



Take some pics ?
I have lol all my photos on my iphone are weather related lol
latest vis. of gulf convection building se of fl.
The storm I am gettign impacted with is only moving at 10 mph, so its a slowwww mover...
Quoting 550. Camerooski:

HUGE Torrential rain here in Fort Lauderdale. My school is out of power for the 2nd day in a row!!! The thunder sounds like bombs going off. And knee high flooding in the High School Parking Lot!!!


Sounds like you are from the Orlando area:)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
920 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015

FLZ071-072-172-171400-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
920 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

* AT 919 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER FORT
LAUDERDALE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
THIS STORM. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER
IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT LAUDERDALE...HOLLYWOOD...CORAL SPRINGS...POMPANO BEACH...
DAVIE...PLANTATION...SUNRISE...DEERFIELD BEACH...TAMARAC...
MARGATE...LIGHTHOUSE POINT...LAUDERDALE-BY-THE-SEA...LAUDERHILL...
COCONUT CREEK...OAKLAND PARK...NORTH LAUDERDALE...LAUDERDALE
LAKES...DANIA BEACH...PARKLAND AND WILTON MANORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY TOUCH DOWN AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. MOVE
INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2610 8010 2610 8011 2612 8011 2611 8012
2608 8011 2607 8013 2607 8021 2631 8030
2630 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1319Z 171DEG 10KT 2615 8011

$$
I have never been in a tornado and I don't want to be in one but thanks to the Super El Nino I have a good chance this year. All this moisture from Ex-Grace and the low are causing a lot of funnel clouds in south FLA so i am starting to get worried about this upcoming winter/spring
Really interesting weather day across Europe! Several places in Austria, Italy and the Balkan got their monthly heat record broken today. In Italy up to 40C=104F (Pescara), in Austria up to 34C=93F [edit: more than 35C=95F; see below post #583, uff).



Source with a current list of stations with heat records: Last updated at Thu Sep 17 12:32:38 UTC 2015 using 2157 observations from 12UTC
Unofficially, there are currently 43 stations that have broken their daily high record, 20 that are tying it, and 59 that are near it.
Unofficially, there are currently 0 stations that have broken their daily low record, 0 that are tying it, and 5 that are near it.



Source. Current webcam pic from German Chiemsee. Today's "Foehn-storm" (see post #454) is subsiding now.

Top gales (from the south) in the Alps today (172kmh=107mph):

Source wetteronline.de
Quoting 560. Camerooski:

I have never been in a tornado and I don't want to be in one but thanks to the Super El Nino I have a good chance this year. All this moisture from Ex-Grace and the low are causing a lot of funnel clouds in south FLA so i am starting to get worried about this upcoming winter/spring
yes there was one touch down in Davie florida last night,sure don't want any in central florida near me either.
Tornadoes are very scary. The first one I witnessed was due to the Super Nino of 1997-1998 in Central Florida. The sound and wind are very scary, and quite unnerving
I have never been in a tornado and I don't want to be in one but thanks to the Super El Nino I have a good chance this year. All this moisture from Ex-Grace and the low are causing a lot of funnel clouds in south FLA so i am starting to get worried about this upcoming winter/spring

from NOAA

Tornado Predictability from the ENSO Signal
With such striking differences in tornado activity between strong El Nino and strong La Nina years the obvious question is - can we predict tornadoes from the ENSO signal? Forecasting an individual tornado or even tornado outbreak based solely on the ENSO signal is problematic due largely to the time-space scales of the various phenomena involved. Indeed, one of the scientific concerns with the strong El Nino event of 1997-98 was that individual significant tornado events were often ascribed to El Nino in the popular press.
The so-called "EL Nino spawned tornado" is a misnomer and that is why the idea of an experimental forecast of tornadoes based on the ENSO signal is highly controversial. However, there is significant dry season to dry season variability in tornado activity over Florida. The number of dry season F2 tornado days, the number of $5 million dollar tornado events, and the amount of dry season tornado damage ($millions) plotted from 1980 through the 2000 dry season illustrate this variability. If one then considers "seasonal" measures there is considerable scientific basis for aviable physical relationship to work with. The following forecasts done in the same manner as the storminess and rainfall forecasts show some skill, especially during extreme phases of ENSO, but are not statistically significant:
There are at least two significant reasons why trying to predict tornadoes directly from the ENSO signal is problematic: 1) becausethe tornado database comes only from reported tornadoes, it is thought that many more tornadoes occur than are reported, especially from sparsely populated areas. In addition, not all tornado and high wind reports are thoroughly investigated, and not all tornadoes and high wind damage can be surveyed to determine the true nature of the damage. Tornado damage and strength assessment are subjective, and indeed the amount of damage depends on what areas the tornadoes hit, not necessarily the character of tornadoes themselves. These problems do not affect the storminess database which is objectively obtained. 2) The physical process of tornadogenesis in the dry season generally involves the spinup of a tornado from a thunderstorm mesocyclone. The fact that a tornado may or may not spinup is determined by processes on a very small space-time scale and can theoretically have nothing to do with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Indeed, why some mesocyclones produce tornadoes and some do not is not well-understood. Anecdotal evidence from NEXRAD doppler radar observations at Melbourne over the past 10 years indicates that most mesocyclones do not, in fact, produce tornadoes. On the other hand, the synoptic environment that is favorable for tornadogenesis and severe weather is well known and understood. This is why storminess is perhaps a better measure of seasonal tornado potential, and a more useful proxy for assessing societal impact of ENSO.
Lots of motion in the GOM off the S.W. coast of Florida.
@barbamz, I've been saying "windshpitzen" to myself until it stopped being fun. Still saying it.
Quoting 566. win1gamegiantsplease:

@barbamz, I've been saying "windshpitzen" to myself until it stopped being fun. Still saying it.

Hehe, I'm always glad to entertain you :-) Here you can check it.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 741 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 638 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND - KFGF 444 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 415 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 900 PM HST WED SEP 16 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 900 PM HST WED SEP 16 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 456 PM HST WED SEP 16 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 456 PM HST WED SEP 16 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING BISMARCK ND - KBIS 812 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 157 PM HST WED SEP 16 2015
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HONOLULU HI - PHFO 157 PM HST WED SEP 16 2015
TORNADO WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 703 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
The west coast of Fla might just get wet today. Thats a lot of water

I have never been in a tornado and I don't want to be in one but thanks to the Super El Nino I have a good chance this year. All this moisture from Ex-Grace and the low are causing a lot of funnel clouds in south FLA so i am starting to get worried about this upcoming winter/spring

i guess what i question here...is your use of "a good chance"......in an average year...central and south florida average just over 8 tornadoes a year.....in an el nino year...that figure jumps to 14...now while the percentage increase is rather large....the total amount...per area...is still very small......so your chances are still very slim
Thanks for correcting me on the "rain shield" issue..........That should help keep down some of the instability later today over Florida.
Quoting 563. WeatherConvoy:

Tornadoes are very scary. The first one I witnessed was due to the Super Nino of 1997-1998 in Central Florida. The sound and wind are very scary, and quite unnerving


Last year I was visiting my parents down in the New Smyrna Beach area, and the apartment complex they lived in got hit by an EF-1 tornado, along with a couple other across the street. That was my first real experience with one and it was one of the scariest thing I have been through, right up with hurricanes. Thankfully my parent's apartment didn't receive any damage aside from the screen door getting ripped off the hinges. I wouldn't want to see another tornado or wish one on anybody.

This is radar from the storm. Look between Daytona Beach and Nasa Shuttle, you can make out some rotation;
Quoting 571. ricderr:


I have never been in a tornado and I don't want to be in one but thanks to the Super El Nino I have a good chance this year. All this moisture from Ex-Grace and the low are causing a lot of funnel clouds in south FLA so i am starting to get worried about this upcoming winter/spring

i guess what i question here...is your use of "a good chance"......in an average year...central and south florida average just over 8 tornadoes a year.....in an el nino year...that figure jumps to 14...now while the percentage increase is rather large....the total amount...per area...is still very small......so your chances are still very slim
Good morning Ric. This is true, chances are remote, but I believe there will be rough weather for Florida, especially north of the Sarasota- Fort Pierce line.
The sun is out and warming quickly. I think it is definite we will get extremely powerful storms this afternoon in the Treasure Coast.
The RAMBB Goes East Floater is up on the Florida area:


tampa bay long range loop it seems like the low is getting better organized. seems stationary to me
Thick cloud cover and only 75 degrees here in south Fort Myers.
I'm up to 8.64" for the month at the house. It's been a wet month at my location.
Only 5.02" officially in the city, with most of the heavier rain falling south of the city.
579. Mikla
The chance of being in a tornado in So. FL (even now) is pretty slim. You are far more likely to be injured in a car accident due to all the rain.

Tornado's since 9/2011
Good morning Ric. This is true, chances are remote, but I believe there will be rough weather for Florida, especially north of the Sarasota- Fort Pierce line.


i would agree hydrus...and mornin to you also......it's just ratio to probabilities......i guess an example would be....if you you increased the chances of winning the lottery by half.....there would probably be twice as many winners...however your chances as the winner....would still be slim to none
Velocity radar is showing some rotation off Naples.
Update to post #562:
I just saw in Austrian news that their national heat record for the second half of the month of September was broken today with 35,5C=95,9F in Gumpoldskirchen. Old record was from Sept 17, 1975 in Bregenz with 34,2C=93,6F.

Here the official statement of the national weather service of Austria ZAMG.
Austrian national heat record for the whole month of September is very young too: 36F=96,8F in Pottschach on Sept 1, 2015.
There is a midlevel low just west of FT Myers....it's not at the surface. A surface low will develop today along the trough line further sw and move across florida on Saturday. The surface low will get better organized tonight into Friday but shear will be some issue and dry air in the northern and central GOM.
Quoting 582. sonofagunn:

Velocity radar is showing some rotation off Naples.


midlevel
Quoting 577. islander101010:

tampa bay long range loop it seems like the low is getting better organized. seems stationary to me


out of radar range.. you see a midlevel low
thanks thanks thanks scott its turning
Quoting 573. Stoopid1:

br abp="1611">br abp="1612">Last year I was visiting my parents down in the New Smyrna Beach area, and the apartment complex they lived in got hit by an EF-1 tornado, along with a couple other across the street. That was my first real experience with one and it was one of the scariest thing I have been through, right up with hurricanes. Thankfully my parent's apartment didn't receive any damage aside from the screen door getting ripped off the hinges. I wouldn't want to see another tornado or wish one on anybody.br abp="1613">br abp="1614">This is radar from the storm. Look between Daytona Beach and Nasa Shuttle, you can make out some rotation;br abp="1615">


My stupid question of the day: If there is a low in the SW gulf, shouldn't those storms be moving to the west?

Edit: SE gulf
Quoting 589. BobinTampa:



My stupid question of the day: If there is a low in the SW gulf, shouldn't those storms be moving to the west?

Edit: SE gulf


The upper level shear is pushing to the East:



The scary thing is knowing a tornado was near you but not even realizing it. About 12 or 13 years ago, a tornado went through my parents neighborhood and got within I think a few hundred feet of their house. Trees and branches were down all over the place a few streets away, my folks had no such damage. It was likely an EF0..
Excerpt from the SPC 0800 day 1 convective outlook...
...SOUTH FL...
REFER TO NHC GUIDANCE FOR LATEST THINKING ON POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. AN EXTENSIVE ZONE OF ASCENT WILL PERSIST OVER FL TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION FUELED BY BACKGROUND ASCENT AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS OCCASIONALLY TAKEN ON SLIGHTLY GREATER ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATIONS AND LINEAR FEEDER-BANDS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY... LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE QUASI-TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FEATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN 1/3RD OF THE PENINSULA.

..CARBIN/COOK.. 09/17/2015

Image below is a link to the complete 0800 cdt Day 1 Convective Outlook from the SPC.


Next outlook, due out at 1130 cdt. For the official NWS forecast, click spc.noaa.gov.
Lake Worth FL here. It has been raining here since midnight Tuesday.
I have a question, if this forms, will get a new name of keep the name Grace.
SPC has a 5% tornado risk in the upper Midwest today, but I don't see much tornado potential.



Winds at 500mb are decent, however the 850s are veered, coming from the SW.



Instability is pretty strong for the middle of September, so definitely expect some severe storms, but I don't think we will see any tornado reports in the Midwest.



Quoting 591. ElConando:

The scary thing is knowing a tornado was near you but not even realizing it. About 12 or 13 years ago, a tornado went through my parents neighborhood and got within I think a few hundred feet of their house. Trees and branches were down all over the place a few streets away, my folks had no such damage. It was likely an EF0..
Where I live, the scary thing is knowing a long-tracking EF 4 or 5 is heading straight at a loved one who doesn't have underground shelter.

Hope you all have fun with your weather today. Take care in the upper MIdwest as well as in FLa.
Quoting 595. HurricaneAndre:

I have a question, if this forms, will get a new name of keep the name Grace.
It would be Ida
Quoting 592. Barefootontherocks:

Excerpt from the SPC 0800 day 1 convective outlook...
...SOUTH FL...
REFER TO NHC GUIDANCE FOR LATEST THINKING ON POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL. AN EXTENSIVE ZONE OF ASCENT WILL PERSIST OVER FL TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER STAGNANT UPPER TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION FUELED BY BACKGROUND ASCENT AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS OCCASIONALLY TAKEN ON SLIGHTLY GREATER ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATIONS AND LINEAR FEEDER-BANDS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY... LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE QUASI-TROPICAL CONVECTIVE FEATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO/WATERSPOUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN 1/3RD OF THE PENINSULA.

..CARBIN/COOK.. 09/17/2015

Image below is a link to the complete 0800 cdt Day 1 Convective Outlook from the SPC.


Next outlook, due out at 1130 cdt. For the official NWS forecast, click spc.noaa.gov.


Someone on here yesterday mentioned that tornado possibility for today but I think they got shot down by a grumpy
596. tornadodude
2:29 PM GMT on September 17, 2015

Check out the "space" over Iowa. That's where things would pop, IF they're gonna pop.
Midlevels SEerlies? I did not look. If so, that adds fuel to the fire, so to speak.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 599. K8eCane:



Someone on here yesterday mentioned that tornado possibility for today but I think they got shot down by a grumpy
LOL. Tornadoes are iffy and unpredictable, that's for sure.
Thanks for the chuckle. Have a good one.
Quoting 600. Barefootontherocks:

596. tornadodude
2:29 PM GMT on September 17, 2015

Check out the "space" over Iowa. That's where things would pop, IF they're gonna pop.
Midlevels SEerlies? I did not look. If so, that adds fuel to the fire, so to speak.


Hard to tell exactly what will happen, certainly some good ingredients for severe storms. If there is any sort of boundary, then a tornado is certainly possible. But I don't know, overall flow isn't great for tornadoes.
Quoting 595. HurricaneAndre:

I have a question, if this forms, will get a new name of keep the name Grace.
Depends if they gave the invest a new number. If so, then a new name would be in order - as you say - IF...
Quoting 570. K8eCane:

The west coast of Fla might just get wet today. Thats a lot of water


It's been raining almost all morning on Longboat Key. Doesn't look like it's going to stop anytime soon, either.
Quoting 581. ricderr:

Good morning Ric. This is true, chances are remote, but I believe there will be rough weather for Florida, especially north of the Sarasota- Fort Pierce line.


i would agree hydrus...and mornin to you also......it's just ratio to probabilities......i guess an example would be....if you you increased the chances of winning the lottery by half.....there would probably be twice as many winners...however your chances as the winner....would still be slim to none
There is one possibility. If the primary storm track this winter is far to the south, it could mean more in the way of severe weather for the state.It would be even more enhanced if there is some return flow, which is exactly what happened during the 1998 Tornado Outbreak over Florida.Hard to see here, but the subtropical jet coming west across the gulf was 140 kts, and the low level jet was out of the south at 60 kts. Throw in some outflow boundaries and tornadoes are a certainty.

I apologize, I cannot get the graph to post. Heres the radar anyway.


Quoting 589. BobinTampa:



My stupid question of the day: If there is a low in the SW gulf, shouldn't those storms be moving to the west?

Edit: SE gulf

You can see an outflow boundary going west into the storms pretty cool must be the sea breeze