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TD #8 slow to come...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:27 PM GMT on July 29, 2005

The Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigating the tropical wave near Puerto Rico did not find a closed circulation indicating a tropical depression had formed this afternoon, which is not surprising given the sparse cloud cover associated with this system. Still, the cloud pattern does show a good degree of organization and upper-level winds are still favorable, so a tropical depression could form tomorrow morning. The timing of formation will be critical. If the storm just gets its act together as it hits Hispanolia, will it be able to survive crossing the island and reform on the other side? I've never seen a tropical depression try to form basically on top of Hispanolia, which appears as if what this storm wants to try to do. I'm not sure if a developing tropical depression can survive crossing the island, and I bet in most cases it will not. However, this is the Hurricane Season of 2005, so consider it likely.

The long range radar loop out of San Juan, PR, should be interesting to watch tonight. About 10-11pm convection should start to pick up, as we head into the usual midnight - 4am maximum in thunderstorm activity over the tropics. This may be enough to trigger the extra low-level convergence needed to get this storm spinning up into a tropical depression.

I figured out how to plot the early model runs (well, at least the BAMM and GFDL), I will try to keep this image updated.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I see the GFDL take's whatever this becomes farter south.Is that concidering that the Bermuda High will strenthen after the upper low retrogades East?
The steering currents are going in the exact same direction as the GFDL is taking the system. I personally think this system will be a depression by lunchtime tomorrow. The shear appears to be weakening to me, and the water temperature is suitable.
The wave appears to be a bit less organized than earlier, although as Dr. Masters mentions the convection should pick up a bit tonight.
check the radar out of san juan the squalls have really picked up ne of san juan and are moving sw indicating to me there is a circulation there...i dont know what they are waiting for to call irt dp#8..the winds are gusting 38 mph on the islands and the pressures are falling just about everywhere in the islands...
I am still not seeing a closed circulation.
the center right now is to the se of st croix...according to water vapor imagery..
wel that depends on how you look at it..the winds on the islands and the wind from san juan combined with a sw flow of the radar would indicate a closed circulation to me...
the winds are gusting to 38mph at st croix in the last hour...san juan had a gust to 31 mph...
there seems to be a second center forming on the tip of sw puerto rico...lat 17.7 n 67.0 west..
this second center shows up well on visible imagery..
WSI, you aren't seeing a closed circulation because there isn't one.
12. WSI
I know that Hawkeyewx. I was merely stating the obvious for our friend here. ;) I know I am a rookie at this, but there is no closed circulation there.

I'm not seeing a closed circulation or showers moving from west to east on the loop. But, as they say in Georgia "Tomorrow is another day!"
well pr is sure getting heavy rains and winds gusting to 31 mph right now....the radar has picked up heavy squalls are now coming into view..also a flash flood watch has been issued for tonight and all day saturday...i think this will be classified one wat or the other..it has to much going for it...the shear completely slacked up now...we should see changes by next tropical update..if they are experiencing winds on the islands like over 30 they will have to call it TD#8..
15. WSI
Not if the circulation doesn't close Stormtop.
IM SEEING RAIN MOVE FROM NE TO SW THAT WOULD INDICATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
STORMTOP said: "this second center shows up well on visible imagery.."

Visibly imagery? It is dark out there and has been for a good 2 to 3 hours. Don't know exactly how you are looking at visible imagery in the dark. But then again, I really don't believe a word you ever say.
you can see the spiraling in the bands ne of pr..look at the radar...what are they waiting for
Yeah I remember that in 1995 the wave that became Erin had sustained winds of 50 miles an hour before it had a closed circulation, but they did not name it until the low closed off, and then declared it to be a tropical storm without ever being a depression
20. WSI
The system is unorganized Stormtop. There is no closed circulation.
21. WSI
They are waiting for the system to obtain the qualities of a depression Stormtop.
adam you need a lesson im seeing a beautiful picture right now on 0115 utc...
This is the "beautiful" visible view of the area.

Link
adam you looking at the wrong link...im looking at goes east western atlantic visible 0115 utc
Oh you know what? You're right, that one looks MUCH better

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html
strange as it may seem..this looks like a week ago,we have a strong wave with a nice bow of convection it seems to have a few locations where there is circulation(not a closed surface low)Could we see this wave split as last one and south part of wave follow closer to the GFDL and the other half track more to the NW???..
27. WSI
Stormtop, that image is dark. Visible satellite imagery is only visible during daylight hours. I am looking at the pic right now. Nothing there.
adam go to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
someone place a mirror in AZ...maybe just enogh light...to see tropics...
This wave is rather large, I think if it split to "closed surface lows" they would fight for the same "fuel" killing off both of them almost instantly.
That is not visible, once you see that line go across the screen is it IR.
thats what i said
interesting creek,and you may be right if that happened.Almost like last time both poorly developed.
Where exactly did you say that you weren't looking at something but visible imagery?
where is the next storm going>
That is the thing, Steve said in his last post, and all models concur. The steering currents are going to be very weak once this storm (if it develops) gets around Cuba. It could turn almost due north or as far south as the Keys. It is WAY to early to tell on this one. IMO I posted a blog entry the other day regarding the storm. Took a guess on the center and made a prediction. I expected this to me a TD or weak TS by now to be honest. The shear has been impressive, not alowing this thing to get its act together. I didn't really expect that. If this forms into a TD I will post another forecast of it. Right now I will just hold on to my last one. Since it has pretty much followed that track.
i told you exactly what i was looking at i think you misunderstood me or i might have worded it wrong...
Time to clarify what a closed circulation is. It means there is a defined center with an east wind to the north of the center, a north wind to the west of the center, a south wind to the east of the center, and a west wind to the south of the center. With west-moving tropical waves, developing a west wind to the south of the center is the most difficult to accomplish.
well said hawk im seeing this fall apart and split into 3 pieces right now...this thing is washed up..
Its falling apart.
you right hurr king ...this will be history by tomorrow
hawk is right we wont have any more storms in july...
43. Alec
hi everyone!!
44. Alec
seems like no one is here. ill just wait till someone notices.
Hi Alec, I guess most people saw the tropical wave petering out and decided to go to bed :)
46. Alec
hawkeye, i read the earlier posts today and heard stormtop blasting everyone(and even referenced me) about their analysis. i think we need to make it clear to him to respect what we have to say. hes so adamant and i dont understand why he has to disagree with everyone about everything.
47. WSI
I personally am not sure its done with yet. The shear looks like it will relax a little. Plus, the water temps are decent. I guess it really just depends on the track it takes.
48. Alec
hi WSI.
You guys are all incredible as far as I'm concerned, so what is the consensus for the probability of adverse weather, depression, storm, and/or hurricane for SE Florida in the next week?
50. Alec
personally ErRn, i feel that a trop. depression is possible if:
1) shear relaxes
2)it doesnt hit hispaniola. the 10000ft mountains would tear it apart.
3)the high n of FL would cause it to move more westward.
No, we can't write this thing off yet. As Steve said, maybe in a couple days it will have a better chance.
Curious, I know the Bermuda High has a big impact on what does or doesn't affect Florida; apparently we were hit last year twice (Frances and Jeanne) because of it, but I'm not sure how it works or why it can't be predicted more than a few days at a time.
53. Alec
i agree hawk.
54. Alec
im going to bed if no one talks in the next 10 minutes.
hello
Hello CJ, can you shed some light and explanation on the Bermuda High?
not really...sorry.
Alec, the 0z ETA is pretty similar to recent runs in developing a closed low in a couple days as the wave approaches the central Bahamas. It then has the system very slowly moving nw ending up just east of the northern Bahamas in 84 hours. I'm watching the 0z GFS come in now.
Anybody know?
but mostly all weather cant be predicted cvery accurately within a few days.....just depends on how strong the high is and where it is a the time the storm passes. also many other things but really i dont even know...alec might if he's still on here.
61. Alec
hi cj. it looks like there are going to be thunderstorms colliding over tallahassee any minute. quite a big lightning display!!!
yeah i hear some thunder every few minnutes and the windows light up..no rain yet i dont think...if it is going to>
63. Alec
the strength of the high will determine how far to the west systems turn. since low pressure wont go into high pressure, highs act like blocks to northern turns. the stronger the high the more a system will go west.
see what alec said! someone said a few days ago they are like giant bubbles.
Got it, thanks Alec!
66. Alec
upper level highs actually help the development of trop. systems because it creates an exhaust system for the storms to "breath". surface highs are the ones that block the northern turn of systems.
Incredibly intense lightning today in north central Florida....1.30" precip measured at the house here in less than an hour...
so was stormtop serious when he said and i quote "hawk is right we wont have any more storms in july..."
69. Alec
yesterway, there is are two outflow boundaries about to collide over tallahassee. theres going to be strong weather here soon.
70. Alec
cj, stormtop seemed to say we'd have a storm today, one tomorrow and one sunday a few days ago.
71. Alec
i wonder why stormtop sees things other experts on here dont see. i looked over the earlier posts today and pretty much saw him disagreeing with everyone.
yeah thats why if he meant what he said tonite then i dont know what to think of him...i mean his predictions
73. Alec
like this morning stormtop saw a little flare up near the mouth of the mississippi and thought something was developing. he seems to think every blob of convection will automatically develop.
yeah.......maybe he has 2005 fever or something.........i know i do!!!! :)
Alec..I'm turning StormPredator on now to watch the action near Tall...
im determined that 92l is going to develope and caancell my first days of school....thats just my prediction
77. Alec
but i dont know why he insists some things and totally writes off the majority's views. i especially find it a tad annoying when he references me which he did earlier today about how wrong we are.
So the Bermuda High is a surface high; but what influences it? What makes it stay in place or recede? Sorry, it's Weather 101 here. I've experienced 3 hurricanes, but have no clue as to why or how they got here. Boarded up and rode them out, that's all I know. What would make Florida vs. Texas vs. the Carolina's more vulnerable this year or is it all just a crap shoot?
I think the latest WV loop shows it all. Looks like the former storm didn't have a chance over Puerto Rico's smallest mountains. Thanks for the interesting discussion, some keep it to WX related, and some of you just seem to want to get a post count. :)
Link
yeah i sall where storm top did that..........yay! thats one more post for me. :)
82. Alec
ErR, the highs are influenced by pressure changes in the atmosphere. Now if a low is cutting its way off the coast it has pressure lower within itself than the pressure around it. when it moves the displaced air has to be filled by higher pressure.(high pressure goes to lower pressure.) think of it as the atmosphere trying to get in a state of equilibrium. the highs move to equal out atmospheric pressures.
this wave just doesnt seem the sam as the others that have developed so far ...... it just seems to be there and nothing impressive about it.
same*
85. Alec
If the bermuda high is weak NC is relatively vulnerable, if the high is pretty strong then FL and TX have the vulnerability.
Ok, that makes sense.
87. Alec
cj, do you want to go stormchasing this yr w/ me if there's a hurricane threatening? but i dont drive.lol maybe we could get others to go with us too. that would be fun.
that would be cool......deponds on the storm though!
89. Alec
depends*
depends**
91. Alec
how much is too much cj?
4 or 5 would scare me but i would go if i knew where we would be and it could survive a cat 4 or 5.....but it absolutely cant be near the ocean
cant say i wont freak out at any time...
94. Alec
a 4 or 5 would be fun!!! i know the storm surge would threaten our lives. maybe inland a few miles eh?
yeah big fun....we could get sheets and skate boards and fly down the street.....thi isnt sarcastic in any way
this*
Tallahassee is having t'storms currently just as Alec indicated would happen....
98. Alec
anybody else, want to plan to storm chase this season if theres a hurricane coming?
99. Alec
cj, it would be scary to be flying in a cat 4 or5.lol
100. cjnew
wow those storms did collide right over tally
101. cjnew
yes i would definately go...if i was allowed. we could just follow jim cantore
NOW...
THROUGH 2 AM EDT (1 AM CDT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA BIG BEND...MERGING OVER LEON...
JEFFERSON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. ALSO SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE SEEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE. SOME OF THESE WILL REACH COASTAL INLAND
AREAS. THE TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE SOME RAIN. WITH ANY STORM...
WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH...HEAVIER RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS OF
THE INCH...WITH CLOSER TO AN INCH WITH STORMS.
103. Alec
maybe i should fear my life. the pressures are disturbing. lol lol lol
104. Alec
jim cantore means bad omens whereever he goes. when they see him it means big trouble. we might get stoned for following him.lol
105. cjnew
yes alec..run for cover while you still can!!!lol..........thanks for the up date yesterway...wish we'd get some rain over here though
106. Alec
where ever*
107. cjnew
lol.update**
108. Alec
i almost got struck standing on campus today.
I think we all have 2005 anxiety. cause hey, since when has any of us seen this many tropical waves, ts, td, and hurricanes.And its not even August 1st yet. The bad part is we in Florida had a pretty rough 04.
Oh by the way hello everyone!!!
110. cjnew
was it raining???
111. Alec
hi cornflake. do you like snowflakes?
112. Alec
ya. pretty heavy.
113. cjnew
hey cornflakes....yes what ever happenend to the trop. waves that just dissapeard..hhmmm!
114. cjnew
then what did you expect!!!
115. Alec
so you can stormchase cj if you're allowed. how sure are you that you would be allowed to come???
I dont know but they are having a tropical storm in Mohave desert right now.
117. Alec
a lightning storm.lol im not afraid of lightning.
where are you cjnew? by the way..nice to meet you..
Flooding rains, dime size hail, and 60+ mph gusts and winds. Makes for an enjoyable evening on the Vegas Strip. but hey most of you guys cant even go to Vegas
120. Alec
how can a tropical storm survive in the desert? i guess it must have formed in a desert lake.lol
121. cjnew
well if the mother doesnt let me go i cant be mad at her cus that means she loves me. :) but she probably would since they are constantly telling me i need to go out and do things...before i have to. but i think she would if it was something i really wanted to do...she's a great mom cant ask for a better one
122. Alec
your right cornflake. cant go.
123. cjnew
nice to meet you too yesterway...im no to far west of tall in panama city......
And Cj any of last good tropical waves before this week, till african dust came along, have pratically formed into a storm. What 7 storms so early in season, i guess is not enough for you?
125. Alec
thats nice cj :) :) :) :)
126. cjnew
does a desert lake really make any since...and i cant go to vegas either...but i have no desire to .....scared of to many lights lol
127. Alec
too* yesterday* -------scrap that.lol
Has any body ever been in a flooding desert?
129. Alec
lakes could never cj.lol i was joking.
130. cjnew
thanks alec lol.......just cant get enough of them...when theres not a depression i get the depression. :)
131. Alec
never seen a desert flood corn. but i see them on tv.lol
132. cjnew
never even seen a desert
Actually Im starting to believe some of you dont get out to much. Hell, I think Alec doesnt even sleep.
134. Alec
so a depression is something psychological i guess. so if there wasnt a hurricane i guess youd have a headache.lol
135. cjnew
i dont get out much...trust me ....but i get much more sleep then alec. lol
136. cjnew
to some degree.........havent had any headaches lately
137. Alec
right corn. sleeping is for wimps. lol lol lol lol lol
I dont think to much more, there CJ.
139. cjnew
well i slept untill 11 today
140. Alec
i had 2.5 hrs of sleep that one night cj and i chatted till 4:30am.
Well Good night, till next time. Dont let these scary storms sneak up on anybody! LOL!!!
142. cjnew
good night cornflakes..lol
143. Alec
good nite cornflake.
But one thing to keep an eye is this systems circulation doesnt do a slip in between PR and DR.
145. cjnew
actually i think its good for your body to test it and not sleep as much..dont you alec.lol
146. Alec
so i guess its only you and me cj now. thats if no one else is spectating.
147. cjnew
will do that storm flake..
Eye on!
149. Alec
right. ill just pass out tired to death cj.lol
150. cjnew
im not staying up to much longer...im going to the beach tomorrow
151. cjnew
it'd be the best sleep you've ever gotten.LOl
Yesterway<<<<
153. Alec
i thought you left corn. you need to come out with a departing message.
Yesterway<<<<<<
155. cjnew
hey yesterway
156. Alec
panama city beach??
is a night owl...
158. Alec
hi yesterway.
159. cjnew
kinda we are going to the state park though.........mee too yesterway
160. Alec
yesterway-lol
161. Alec
me*
162. cjnew
thats how i wanted my me...i was emphasizing it!
163. Alec
dont get struck by lightning cj. stay safe and dont get burned like a lobster.
164. cjnew
so i uncorrect it..mee**
When I was attending FSU I lived in a small garage apartment behind the Governor's mansion next to the cemetary.....
166. Alec
its raining really hard here in Tally right now.
167. cjnew
well i dont go outside during thunderstorms........and plan on getting burned :)...dont know if im brave enough to venture out in the waters.........i'll probably just play in the sand with my nephew
168. cjnew
thats kool yesterway did you ever see the govenor
169. Alec
id swim the waters. i ride waves. i pet sea sharks. no i dont.lol
170. Alec
cool*
171. cjnew
yes i love the waves to but sharks terrify me..
172. cjnew
same thang!
173. Alec
too*
174. Alec
thing*
175. Alec
i guess you've been watching too much shark movies cj.lol
Im back after looking at a few things, when did ships state at 0Hr there is 58 mph winds
177. cjnew
anyways.........i really think it would be cool to go storm chasing
It looks like my work week might be off to a rough start with a pussycat 1 in my backdoor.
179. cjnew
wow where did you here that....im still looking at the radr out of pr and it looks like it still has some spin in it
180. Alec
cool cj. it would be fun.
181. Alec
hear*
182. cjnew
we ciuld all predict where it would go then go there
183. Alec
could*
184. cjnew
corn was that a gust???
185. Alec
had to be. if it was sustained it would be a tropical storm.
186. cjnew
your so helpfull alec....it would be nice to talk to you in person so you dont know how i spell things in my head
Well there is a couple of varibles that might happen with this wave, and the worst scenario is it cutting through the channel between DR and PR as some models has it doing! Then we might get something spinned up in hurry, but I do see things pointing it be a large area of convection in the bahamas.
188. Alec
helpful*
189. cjnew
well i assumed alec. lol..what is pussycat 1
The blog entry above has been updated recently and with the ships model having it at 58mph
a cat 1
192. cjnew
oh i'll look
193. Alec
that can be arranges cj. just come to Tally before Aug 5 and you can meet me in person.
194. cjnew
oh see.....i take things literally...sorry lol.....im happier now though
195. Alec
arranged*
196. cjnew
ok i'll be there
197. Alec
when?
But when Dr masters first posted this entry the ships model had 0HR posted at 31 or 33,
199. cjnew
so what does that mean....about ships having it at 58 in zero hours
200. Alec
i think 00 means initial time it was read.
Alec...I never saw the Governor but it was a quiet place to study and live...
202. cjnew
give me 10 minnutes alec.i'll be there...lol...just kidding we will have to meet when we storm chase...it will be our motivation...besides the storm
WELL I DONT KNOW BUT i ASSUME THAT SOMEWHERE IS GETTING 58MPH WINDS, MAYBE THE CONVECTION S OF SW PR
204. Alec
i never asked you that question yesterway. cj did.lol
205. cjnew
i asked that question yesterway.thats cool though
206. Alec
minutes*
Jeff Masters wrote this on July 27
I'd also like to mention that the comments to this blog have gotten too excessive to be of value for the majority of our readers. I encourage those of you who are trying to set a record for a high number of posts to resist that urge. It is difficult for people to find some useful URL or question that needs answering, due to the large number of posts. However, I am pleased with the general tone of all the posts; flame wars have not been a problem. Thanks. On to today's topic--
Jeez, can you guys not resist a number count here, now!
Don't you understand, the useless replies to the Blogs will result in the Blogs being removed? It's one thing to converse, but my goodness, look at your posts. I really don't care in one way or the other, but please, respect Mr. Masters.
208. cjnew
yeah i think it has a eywall...j/k but there are some thunderstorms that form a circle:)
nO WHEN THE MODELS RAN THAT WAS CURRENT WIND FORECAST AT THAT HOUR, JUST LIKE THEY HAVE 66 IN 12 HR, THEN GETTING SHRED UP OVER DR, AND THEN IN 72HR HAVE BACK TO 66MPH. IT WAS PROBABLY RAN AT 1AM OR 12MIDNIGHT
210. Alec
cj lets go to your blog now. well talk serious hurricane stuff on jeffs blog. see ya there!
211. cjnew
sorry seawall and jeff...i never read that blog or i would have stopped........do yall want to go to my blog
212. Alec
scrap the last comment.
213. Alec
never mind lets go to cj's blog. im outtaaaaa here!!!!
214. cjnew
thank you for the reminder seawall....i wouldnt want them to take the blog away...try and keep me in check if i get off topic...later
I like this blog and it gives such good information about a fascinating subject even for us in Sweden. I have been visiting Barbados for a number of years but in the "quiet dry" season of Christmas A question: How will Franklin affect weather in Europe? He still seems st be a considerable blob of clouds and we get most of our weather over the Atlantic
The wave near PR looks to be getting the squeeze by the upper level low retrograding west over the fl pennisula and as the Bermuda high ridges back in ,it's squashing the convection on the north side of the wave..things may improve(the enviroment)later in the day,if so this thing may spin up yet...Now I think maybe we should focus more of our attention to 12N and 53W...that wave is starting to really look good and convection is picking up any thoughts?
yes i see the wave at 12n 53w, it is starting to show some signs of potential develpment. but it's moving into a less favorable environment.....higher shear in the carribean. i would've responded sooner, but it has taken me 45 minutes to read through all of the non related BS posted by others. don't get me wrong, i love to hear what people are thinking......but some of you guys need some help with finding something else to do when there is no tropical activity instead of filling this blog with rambling jargon!
What that shows me evolution..is maybe DR.Masters should have two blogs...one for the serious to ask questions and have serious imput..and one thats more or less real time for the weather enthusiest who like to talk to others with like interest on or off topic while they watch the tropics..I try to keep my post on topic or imput that strike's an interest..
evolution, that one actually looks more impressive than the one near puerto rico. We'll have to see if the shear lets up in the next couple of days. How about the persistant blob of rain se of Key Largo. It seems to be holding together. No circulation yet though. Wait and see on that one too.
It would be nice if this was also forum based with off-topic and serious discussions, maybe someone could start one, or maybe even a chat room dedicated to storms.
Can anyone tell me what they think the Bermuda High is looking like for the outcome I have read that they believe that it will be in or around the same area that it was last year. As I live Tampa and have a sister that lives on the east coast. I am new to this blog and don't know if this question has been asked in the past.
the one south of florida is an upper level low correct? can anyone verify (other than stormtop) not much chance of it forming a low level circulation to become a tropical system, however, it will continue to be a major weather maker for those of us in south florida. it has brought some nice lighting to the area this past few days.
correct its an upper low and its retrograding West..the Bermuda high may ridge back in lessening the shear and provide a better enviroment for organization..for the wave near hispinola
how about that intensifying convection southwest of hispanola that has just exploded?!?!? is this thing trying to split and get around the mountains? this wave won't form anything, but it's the wave that just won't quit!! very strange wave indeed. it also seems like the wave at 12n 53w is undergoing some interesting convection also, keeping an eye on this one.
hopefully some of us can engage in some interesting tropical discussion today. obviously there are those of us who are always watching this blog, but choose not to post until something is really going on. anyone else in for some actual weather discussion?! i'm always watching. also...OUTROCKET, you confirm this upper level low, but a question for you. is it possible for this low to make itself into a tropical system....or no.....why??
first off that upper low is in a hostile enviroment,the Gulf is strange for this time of year..The frontal boundry in N. Gulf has a weak mid level circulation inhibiting alot of moisture..This low retrograding across fl will have alot of shear in its future and as the bermuda high ridges back in It will push it more west at a faster clip I suspect..so I dont see nothing from it but increased showers for FL...
that's kind of what i was thinking. thanks for confirming. not that we need the showers here in s. florida, but i welcome that afternoon thunder, and incredible evenging lighting we've been having lately! adds a bit of energy to the air.
Looks like the PR wave may be done for good. The NAM model still develops it into something near the Bahamas, but that doesn't look likely at this point. The new wave east of the islands does have some better convection this morning, but it will take some time to get organized and it will probably enter the less favorable eastern Caribbean before it can do anything.
Great observation hawkeye!..carib is kinda hostile,things may improve as high ridges back in..time will tell.
i agree hawkeye, but its just funny that this wave is so defiant. every time we put it out for the count, it starts some new area of convection. question though...this new area of convection to the southwest of hispanola....does anyone see this area having any implications toward the development of this wave.
also, i agree with the other wave east of the islands, it's starting to show some signs of organization, but it's also entering a hostile shear environment. it'll have to overcome quite a bit to develop further. we'll see.
Ya looks like no hurricane for florida,well at least some extra moisture for more thunderstorms tropical flooding rains each and every day.
Well at least for the tomporary
I am sure something could possibly develop out of it being that its 2005,just dont ignore it thats all Im saying,conditions are still favorable ahead of the wave.
hawk im afarid you are not going to make your prediction..this wave is really getting its act together on the n side of pr..it went around the mountains..
storm, before you say there is a circulation north of PR, that spin is just a leftover mid level rotation from a blowup of convection overnight. The visible loop clearly shows the low level flow under this weak mid level spin is uniform from the southeast.
it looks real interesting though...is the recon plane cancelled there flight today..
hummmm i see on the radar at sann juan 3.5 inches per hour n of san juan...thats some very heavy rain..this thing has picked up in at least the rain intensity..
I doubt they'll send in a plane today unless a big blowup of convection, maybe north of PR, can maintain itself for several hours. So far with this wave the convective activity has been nothing but scattered small to moderate blowups that quickly vanish followed by more small to moderate blowups that quickly vanish, etc. For this thing to get going the convection needs to be deep and persistent in one area.
yes i hear you theres another big area of convection to the south of the dominican republic..
Someone above inquired about the blowup of convection south of the Dominican Republic. There does appear to be a partial rotation center down there, but that will soon move over land so I don't think anything could come out of that.
I meant someone well above, before Storm.
yea hawkeye,The SW shear you spoke of yesterday caused by that mid low over N.S.AMERICA...does seem to shove what ever develops more north..
GOOD JOB HAWK YOU CALLED IT MAN...SORRY ABOUT THE CAPS..i need to sharpen up no more wild predictions unless i see it can happen...once again hawk we need to let you take over..good job...
hawk one more day i think you will make it unless isee to the east of the islands starts to take off..i also see some shear that should make you safe lol...
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