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TD 8 Forms in Atlantic; Still Watching 99L; Hawaii in Sights of TS Madeline

By: Bob Henson 5:18 PM GMT on August 28, 2016

We’re now approaching the early-September climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and this week shows how active things can get. We may see up to three newly named storms between now and Labor Day in the Atlantic. Each of these could eventually affect the United States in some form or fashion. Another named storm could sweep over Hawaii in the next week--and Japan is bracing for its third tropical cyclone in a week.

TD 8 may swing past the Outer Banks as a tropical storm
In contrast to the prolonged saga of Invest 99L (see below), Tropical Depression 8 didn’t waste any time becoming a tropical cyclone. An impressive shield of showers and thunderstorms (convection) blossomed on Saturday night, and wind data from an airborne scatterometer (see Figure 4 below) showed that the system had a closed circulation. National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to TD 8 at 11 am EDT Sunday.

TD 8 was located about 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving west at 9 mph. Moderate vertical wind shear from the southeast (15-20 knots) has pushed the convection toward northwest side of the low-level center of circulation, as shown in Figure 3 below. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight will investigate TD 8 on Sunday afternoon. TD 8 has some kinship to Tropical Storm Fiona: NHC notes that the latter’s remnants were absorbed into a larger circulation that ended up giving birth to TD 8.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Depression 8 as of 1508Z (11:08 am EDT)
Sunday, August 28, 2016. The low-level circulation is evident toward the southeast end of TD 8’s shield of showers and thunderstorms.


Figure 2. Infrared image of Tropical Depression 8 as of 1645Z (12:45 pm EDT) Sunday, August 28, 2016.


Figure 3. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) aboard the European MetOp-1 satellite detected the circulation around TD 8 (bottom of image) early Sunday, August 28, 2016. Winds of 20-30 mph were evident on the depression’s north side. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The outlook for TD 8
TD 8 is tucked into the south side of a compact upper-level ridge extending from the mid-Atlantic states into the northwest Atlantic. Computer models are in close agreement on a two-phase track that would bring TD 8 northwest to within several hundred miles of the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Tuesday before the ridge weakens and a sharp right-hand turn takes TD 8 out to sea. A tropical storm watch may be issued for the Outer Banks later Sunday, according to NHC. Tropical storm conditions could affect the Outer Banks even if TD 8 does not make landfall.

NHC projects TD 8 to become Tropical Storm Hermine by late Monday but keeps it at minimal strength (40 mph) thereafter. Wind shear should remain light to moderate (10-20 knots) for the next couple of days, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) will remain close to 29°C (84°F), roughly 1-2°C above average. Dry air (relative humidities of only around 40-50%) will be the main impediment to TD 8’s development, with some gradual moistening predicted over the next 3-4 days. By the time it makes its sharp right turn out to sea, TD 8 will be flayed by increasingly strong wind shear.


Figure 4. WU depiction of National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Depression 8 as of 11 am EDT Sunday, August 28, 2016.

99L remains a threat to the eastern Gulf of Mexico
The persistent tropical wave known as Invest 99L may yet become a tropical cyclone to contend with, although you might not guess it from satellite imagery. Once again, 99L appears less impressive in real life than some well-regarded computer models had predicted several days ago. On Sunday morning, 99L was grinding its way west-northwest toward the Florida Straits, with a weakly defined center located midway between South Florida and the coast of Cuba. This center was growing more defined early Sunday afternoon, though, with some rotation of the storm's shower activity apparent on Key West radar and some spiral banding near the center beginning to appear. Satellite loops showed that 99L's heavy thunderstorms were relatively modest in areal coverage and intensity, but with some increase in organization in the past few hours. 99L will pass across the Florida Keys late Sunday, bringing some heavy thunderstorms, gusty winds, and moderately high surf (up to 4-6 feet in the Florida Straits). The disturbed weather over the Keys and South Florida should extend into Monday and perhaps Tuesday, even though the center of 99L will have moved into the southeast Gulf of Mexico by that point.

After nearly a week of attention heaped on 99L--perhaps the most intensely covered “invest” in history--it may be tempting to let this system go, but now is not the time for complacency. Throughout the past week, computer models have leaned toward the Gulf of Mexico as the most likely spot for 99L to intensify, although the GFS model has been the most consistently skeptical. Now all three of our best models for tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET--develop 99L into at least a tropical storm as it makes its way through the Gulf over the next several days. The general tendency in these models is to keep 99L rolling west-northwest into the southeast Gulf for another couple of days, then to hook it fairly sharply by midweek to the north and northeast toward Florida’s Gulf Coast. Nearly all of the 50 members of the 00Z Sunday ECMWF ensemble run follow this scenario, with only a couple of runs taking 99L as far west as the Mississippi or far southeast Louisiana coast. The GFS ensemble track forecast from 00Z Sunday is quite similar, though about a day slower. It’s too soon to know which day 99L would make landfall; assuming it does, it could be anywhere in the latter half of the coming week.


Figure 5. MODIS visible satellite image of Tropical Depression Nine (formerly 99L) forming in the Florida Straits on Sunday afternoon, August 28, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

How strong could 99L get?
The major models have also converged on their strength outlooks for 99L. About 50-60% of the ECMWF and GFS ensemble members members bring 99L up to tropical storm strength over the Gulf. Fortunately, only about 10-20% of ECMWF ensemble runs, and none of the GFS ensemble runs, make 99L a Category 1 hurricane. The HWRF model has been consistently stronger--but although the HWRF is among the best intensity models for tropical storms and hurricanes that have already formed, it has a well-known extreme high bias on systems that have not yet developed, so it’s best to ignore HWRF intensity predictions at this point.

Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico will be moderately supportive of development for 99L. Wind shear will be dropping to the light range by Tuesday (5-15 knots). The atmosphere will be fairly moist (relative humidities should hold in the 65-75% range), and 99L will be passing over very warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 30°C or 86°F. These warm waters do not extend very far down, however, so the amount of oceanic heat along 99L’s expected path in the eastern Gulf is not particularly large. Also, because 99L is entering the Gulf as a large, disheveled system, we can expect development to be slower than it might be for a smaller, better-organized circulation. In its 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Discussion, NHC gives 99L a 40% chance of development into at least a tropical depression by early Tuesday and a 60% chance by early Friday.

If 99L does become a tropical storm (which would be named Ian), it could have as little as 24-48 hours to organize further before making landfall, which reduces the odds of a significant hurricane. Nevertheless, 99L’s size gives it the potential to become a large-scale rainmaker. We can expect 4” - 8” amounts to be widespread along the Florida Gulf Coast and far South Florida over the next several days (see Figure 6). Moreover, even if it doesn’t make hurricane strength, 99L’s large size could enhance its ability to push water onshore and produce more coastal flooding than one might expect from a typical tropical storm.


Figure 6. Projected 5-day rainfall from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Sunday, August 28, through 12Z Friday, September 2, 2016. The forecast assumes that 99L will make its way northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.


Figure 7. Enhanced infrared image of Hurricane Gaston as of 1615Z (12:15 pm EDT) Sunday, August 28, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Category 2 Gaston spins through open Atlantic
Though it’s a powerful storm, with top sustained winds of 105 mph, Hurricane Gaston is a well-behaved storm in terms of impact. Located about 600 miles east of Bermuda as of 11 am EDT Sunday, Gaston is creeping northwest at just 5 mph en route to a very gradual recurvature. Gaston should be able to take advantage of favorable atmospheric conditions and unusually warm SSTs to gain a bit more strength before it begins accelerating east-northeast by midweek. By Friday or Saturday, Gaston could be passing just north of the Azores as a minimal hurricane, based on the latest NHC outlook.

An African wave worth watching
A powerful tropical wave will move off Africa this week and begin a long and potentially eventful trek across the tropical Atlantic. NHC gives the wave a 60% chance of development into at least a depression between Tuesday and Friday. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models agree that this wave could be a significant tropical cyclone by next weekend. The wave should remain on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path through the period.

At least one landfall may be in the cards for Hawaii
Unusually high SSTs associated with El Niño and long-term warming have given Hawaii more than its historical share of tropical storm action in recent years. Two tropical cyclones moving from east to west became the first since Hawaii's statehood (1959] to make landfall in the Big Island: Tropical Storm Iselle (August 2014) and Tropical Storm Darby (July 2016). In addition, an unnamed tropical storm hit the Big Island in 1958. Now we have one tropical cyclone heading toward Hawaii--and another on its heels that could make a swipe at the islands just days later.

Tropical Storm Madeline continues on a course that is making a Big Island landfall increasingly plausible. Moving northwest at about 7 mph, Madeline was located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Hilo, HI, as of the 11 am EDT Sunday advisory from the NOAA/NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Madeline is fairly small but well-structured, with top sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm is now over waters that are 1-2°C above average, around 28°C, and wind shear will remain very light (less than 10 knots) for the next couple of days. Working against strengthening will be fairly dry air, as mid-level relative humidities around 60-70% now will drop to around 40-50% by midweek. In addition, SSTs along its path will be dropping from around 28°C on Sunday to around 26-27°C by Tuesday, though they should increase later in the week. CPHC brings Madeline to minimal hurricane strength on Tuesday, with a slow decline as the rest of the week unfolds.


Figure 7. Enhanced infrared image of Tropical Storm Madeline (left) and Hurricane Lester (right) as of 1500Z (11:00 am EDT) Sunday, August 28, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Madeline is currently angling toward a weakness in the strong ridging to its north. By midweek, the ridge will re-strengthen, and Madeline should take a significant left turn, putting it on a course bending west and then west-southwest toward Hawaii. The 11 am EDT Sunday outlook from CPHC places Madeline near the south end of the Big Island by early Thursday. The average track error in a four-day forecast in this region is 185 miles, so it is too soon to know whether Madeline will actually strike Hawaii or which island(s) it might affect. It would most likely be a tropical storm by this point. If Madeline did pass toward the south end of the Big Island, very heavy rains could result, as strong east winds rotating around the storm would slam against the island’s high mountains. The only tropical cyclone on record to affect Hawaii from the east-northeast is Hurricane Orlene, which made landfall on the Big Island as a tropical depression in September 1994.

And then there’s Lester…
Next up in this unusual queue is Hurricane Lester, now churning well to the east of Madeline (about 1000 mile west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico) with top sustained winds of 85 mph, down from peak winds of 105 mph on Saturday night. A strong ridge to its north should keep Lester on a strikingly direct east-to-west path between latitude 18°N and 19°N for the next few days. Lester’s intensity should also hold steady in the Category 1 hurricane range for at least the next several days, with shear remaining knots (10 knots or less) and SSTs holding above 26°C.

The big question concerning Hawaii is whether Lester will begin an expected gradual recurvature in time to avoid the islands. The 00Z Sunday runs of the GFS and ECMWF model take Lester about 100-200 miles north of the islands next weekend. It’s possible that Lester and Madeline will end up within 1200 miles of each other, enough to possibly trigger Fuijiwhara interaction—the process by which two hurricanes can gain a rotational element of motion around a common center. If this were the case, it would tend to nudge Lester further to the north and reduce its potential impact on the islands. The same effect could enhance Madeline’s potential arc toward the south.


Figure 9. The VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured this image of Typhoon Lionrock at 0405Z Friday, August 26, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NASA Goddard Rapid Response Team.

Heavy rains the big threat to Japan from Category 4 Lionrock
Fearsome Typhoon Lionrock is clawing its way through the Northwest Pacific with top sustained winds of 130 mph, as reported by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at 12Z Sunday. This makes Lionrock the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane. Lionrock is moving northeast parallel to Japan, about 400 miles south of Tokyo, but by midweek it will make a dramatic left turn into a mid-latitude storm system, not unlike the track taken by Hurricane Sandy in 2012. As with Sandy, the exact timing and angle of the turn will make a big difference in the impacts on northern Japan, which has been deluged over the last few days from Tropical Storms Mindulle and Kompasu.

Lionrock may have already peaked in intensity, with some degradation on its north side evident in satellite imagery over the last few hours. JTWC predicts that Lionrock will weaken to near minimal typhoon/hurricane strength by the time it makes landfall in northern Honshu. Torrential rains can still be expected across much of northern Japan, as well as along the far southeast Russian coast.

Jeff Masters and I will be back with a full update on Monday morning. We’ll also add updated information on 99L within this post on Sunday evening.

Bob Henson


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 961. sonofagunn:

It looks like it's finally out of strong shear and has storms over the center. The shear is strong off Ft Myers, you can tell by how the high clouds are being blown quickly south, but the high clouds aren't being blown off over TD9 and Cuba.


Would you be the son of gunnhilda?
1002. 62901IL
Goodnight Gastonic Gaston.

1003. ackee
Quoting 978. wunderweatherman123:

Category 4 hurricane moving over Jamaica, weakening to a 2/3, then exploding to a 4 again over the NW carribbean moving NW into the Yucatan channel run will change again what interesting That week the GFS is showing the storm affecting Jamaica is same week storm like Gilbert and Ivan affected the Island many weeks to watch it
should we be getting prepared yet or wait it out a day or 2?
Quoting 988. muddertracker:


Shrugging it off and getting ready to start on 92.


The models beat them all to what may be 92L - at least for now.
Quoting 1001. daddyjames:



Would you be the son of gunnhilda?


No, don't know a Hilda.
TD 9 is going to be large circulation. Wind is shifting all across the gulf.

That's going to stack a bunch of water up along the gulf coast.
Quoting 994. Bretts9112:

Are you talking about TD 9 ? And what model ???



No a hypothetical, possibility, not-necessarily-ever-going-to-happen event for the wave about to emerge off the African coast.
Quoting 992. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It needs to move or we're not gonna see a bunch of anything. We're in the subtropics, not the Bahamas. Not gonna take long for upwelling to unravel it.


Forgot about upwelling

Subtropics are seemingly better than the Tropics this year as with other recent years as well (at least in the MDR)
Looks like our ULL off the coast of GA has put on the brakes and is slowly beginning to lift north. Might help to relax the environment just a little bit.
Quoting 956. ecflweatherfan:

Looks like HH are done in 09L. Oddly pressure is 1007mb some 1+° west of the center fix.


Those pressure readings aren't realiable - they were ascending in alttitude and the higher they are the less reliable their surface pressure extrapolation is. Not to say pressures aren't lowering over TD9 now, a nice big burst of convection is occuring.
Quoting 1006. sonofagunn:



No, don't know a Hilda.


just a stab, another handle on the blog.
Quoting 994. Bretts9112:

Are you talking about TD 9 ? And what model ???

Future 92L GFS
Quoting 1004. mamothmiss:

should we be getting prepared yet or wait it out a day or 2?


I'm prepared, and I live in OK.
Gaston is also basically stationary or jogging south and west. May produce a little more swell than forecast. Models last week had it coming quite a bit closer to Bermuda. Maybe that is not off the table.

Quoting 882. Ed22:

Seems like everyone has forgotten Gaston the first Major Hurricane of the Atlantic Season by strengthening to 115 mph category 3 today by passing its initial peak of category 2, furthermore it could strengthen some more within 18 to 36 hours.
Quoting 955. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Wow! When is the last time we seen such a well developed major look like this in the month of August. Gaston is the man




Hurricane Danny in the MDR last year?



Borderline category 3/4 but only briefly. Pretty little thing :p
Another great site for vort. Pick the area you want to look at (sector) then select product, scroll to bottom, and pick your poison, lots of selections.

Link
Earlier i said that last 3 simultaneously TC's in the N. Atlantic was 2011 (Lee-Maria-Nate) but actually was in September 10th 2012 (peak of the season) when we saw Leslie, Michael and Nadine over water.
I see the HWRF isn't going to stop being silly even though we officially have a tropical cyclone now.

how bad will it get on the central east coast of florida?
Quoting 986. dk601:

After years of trolling the blog, spending endless hours reading the informative, and sometimes comedic comments, I decided to sign in. Mainly because of the frustration I've had from 99l / td9. Since a kid, Ive always been crazy about the tropics, and I guess the constant disappointment from the lame seasons lately. And I find myself trying to find the latest info on any possible storm that could purge my excitement after so many years. Ever since Katrina passed through us in South ms, I've been waiting for the next one. And when I post comments on Facebook weather posts publicly wishing for a strong storm to show its face, I get met with hostility, and misunderstandings lol, anyways, just thought I'd finally make a post. Haven't been part on a forum since my gaming days, and this might be the closest I come to an exciting storm for a while apparently.. :(
If I've broken any rules of posting that I missed , I apologize in advance. Not looking to draw too much attention, I just enjoy the environment.


LOL - you spent years trolling the blog? Wow, I love it when at least they are upfront and honest about it. ;) Welcome.
1022. 62901IL
Quoting 1016. Envoirment:



Hurricane Danny in the MDR last year?



Borderline category 3/4 but only briefly. Pretty little thing :p


Quoting 1019. CybrTeddy:

I see the HWRF isn't going to stop being silly even though we officially have a tropical cyclone now.


maybe the HWRF is not being silly and all the other models are being idiots! jk highly doubt it but would be sad if it had been predicting this thing right for days now.
Quoting 1008. daddyjames:



No a hypothetical, possibility, not-necessarily-ever-going-to-happen event for the wave about to emerge off the African coast.


I get the doom of the day model again. Second time this year. And it looks like the last time a model showed a storm here it will be off by about 1500 miles. And several categories. :)
Quoting 1019. CybrTeddy:

I see the HWRF isn't going to stop being silly even though we officially have a tropical cyclone now.




may be it may not be silly after all if we get the right low wind shear and with TD 9 moving slow that could happen
1026. Michfan
Quoting 1007. cajunkid:

TD 9 is going to be large circulation. Wind is shifting all across the gulf.

That's going to stack a bunch of water up along the gulf coast.


Yeah you can see it on water vapor and radar. TD9 is moving a ton of the atmosphere at the moment.
Quoting 1019. CybrTeddy:

I see the HWRF isn't going to stop being silly even though we officially have a tropical cyclone now.




Close range it hasn't been doing bad with 99L/09L in the past few days, I agree, long term is nuts, though.
blob:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/8c7858e6-e7b3-4 06c-b9d3-21726b70dab8

Maybe some action for SoCal in the long term. Obviously way to far out to tell.. but hey any hope is still hope. It hasnt rained in over 200 days (Janurary!)
Quoting 1020. mamothmiss:

how bad will it get on the central east coast of florida?


Depends on eventual track and intensity. The stronger it gets, increases our chances of tornadoes. As it stands right now, expect rain (heavy at times), perhaps some moderately gusty winds in those passing showers (perhaps 30-35mph).

Of course if it blows up/moves closer than forecast, all of that goes out the window.
1030. guygee
I know I am suffering from **L-fatigue from watching this storm and the flummoxed models the past several days and I am sure I'm not the only one, but TD Nine still has dangerous potential and the 5-day cone is huge. We will have a lot better idea in what is going to happen in 24-48 hours, needless to say it bears close watching and preparation.
1031. SLU
Quoting 963. SecretStormNerd:


Lol. I've been wanting to say this for days, but never did!


Lol. I finally got the courage to say so now!
Quoting 1024. AtHomeInTX:



I get the doom of the day model again. Second time this year. And it looks like the last time a model showed a storm here it will be off by about 1500 miles. And several categories. :)


Hey, at home, Gro is still calling the blobs, right?
1033. Patrap
I wonder how a pronounced move to the south would affect the path of TD 9, I assume it would feel the weakness regardless, just where in Florida it would hit.
Quoting 1029. ecflweatherfan:



Depends on eventual track and intensity. The stronger it gets, increases our chances of tornadoes. As it stands right now, expect rain (heavy at times), perhaps some moderately gusty winds in those passing showers (perhaps 30-35mph).

Of course if it blows up/moves closer than forecast, all of that goes out the window.
isnt the track now more north like the panhandle?
Quoting 1030. guygee:

We will have a lot better idea in what is going to happen in 24-48 hours


The story of 99L's life
Quoting 1010. ecflweatherfan:

Looks like our ULL off the coast of GA has put on the brakes and is slowly beginning to lift north. Might help to relax the environment just a little bit.

You shut your mouth...lol
Quoting 1019. CybrTeddy:

I see the HWRF isn't going to stop being silly even though we officially have a tropical cyclone now.




It has done fairly well over the last few years once a system becomes a TD/TS and it does become more accurate when there is an official designation and center to track.
1039. Michfan
Quoting 1027. Articuno:



Close range it hasn't been doing bad with 99L in the past few days, I agree, long term is nuts, though.


20mb pressure drop from hour 36 to hour 48. HWRF is basically predicting it to undergo RI at that point in time, which makes the run suspect to start.
1040. FOREX
Quoting 996. taco2me61:


Before Taz corrects you, I wanted to let you know that one is TD8

Taco :o)
LOL, No I'm referring to the naked swirl still moving wnw into the Gulf from TD9 away from its convection.
Bracing for td8 lol, worried about td 9 next weekend
Quoting 1027. Articuno:



Close range it hasn't been doing bad with 99L in the past few days, I agree, long term is nuts, though.


its now TD 9 not 99L
Quoting 1007. cajunkid:

TD 9 is going to be large circulation. Wind is shifting all across the gulf.

That's going to stack a bunch of water up along the gulf coast.

I was wondering about that. Water on HWY 90 on the Ms Gulf Coast during the am/pm "rush" hour could be an issue, to say the least
TD appears to be going for the north coast of Cuba, lets see if it does.
Quoting 1019. CybrTeddy:

I see the HWRF isn't going to stop being silly even though we officially have a tropical cyclone now.




Let's hope the HWRF is completely wrong. Although the 18z GFS trended slightly stronger and the UKMET is still showing a category 1 hurricane. Wouldn't be surprised if TD9 became a category 1 hurricane in the gulf.
1046. Pallis1
Quoting 1001. daddyjames:



Would you be the son of gunnhilda?
I think he may be on to something, as I have been watching the movement of different layers of clouds all day from Bradenton. I also believe that if his fathers' name was Gunn, the proper term would have been Gunn the lesser, or possibly Destroyer if he was an unruly child. Never the less ,99 is to be watched closely. Warm waters. No interfering mountains. Storm approaching Gulf Stream slowly.
Rainy night on the way for SFL

Quoting 1032. redwagon:



Hey, at home, Gro is still calling the blobs, right?


Hey red. Yep, as far as I know Gro is still the blob master.
is there a good chance it will go further north and west and miss central florida alltogether?
1050. Patrap
Key West

Base Radial Velocity



Quoting 1032. redwagon:



Hey, at home, Gro is still calling the blobs, right?


Yup ol' Gro is still in action.
Quoting 1033. Patrap:


Looks slightly south of dew west.
Quoting 816. washingtonian115:

The Wu servers remind me of the internet back in the 90's.

Dial-up!! :/
So, did anyone notice the anticyclone not far from TD 9? Could that be where TD 9 is going? That could change the forecast.

.
Quoting 1018. pablosyn:

Earlier i said that last 3 simultaneously TC's in the N. Atlantic was 2011 (Lee-Maria-Nate) but actually was in September 10th 2012 (peak of the season) when we saw Leslie, Michael and Nadine over water.


Was actually 2013 :p

Link
I don't think T.D 8 will recover.It is still being blasted by south easterly shear and in the forecast discussion by the NHC they stated that shear is only going to get higher.Its window may have closed.
Quoting 1040. FOREX:

LOL, No I'm referring to the naked swirl still moving wnw into the Gulf from TD9 away from its convection.

LOL ok I didn't see the Swirl in the Gulf much less a "Center" LOL
sorry about that.....

Taco :o)
Btw guys... All of this information from the HH is not part of the 18Z model runs. Expect that it will be included in the 00Z runs though.
Quoting 1016. Envoirment:



Hurricane Danny in the MDR last year?



Borderline category 3/4 but only briefly. Pretty little thing :p


True Danny was a real small one that packed a punch, he came to mind just thought that was in September lol
Quoting 1018. pablosyn:

Earlier i said that last 3 simultaneously TC's in the N. Atlantic was 2011 (Lee-Maria-Nate) but actually was in September 10th 2012 (peak of the season) when we saw Leslie, Michael and Nadine over water.

Go forward one more year. There were 3 storms on September 13, 2013 when Gabrielle was weakening off the East Coast, Humberto was spinning in the East Atlantic, and Ingrid was in the Bay of Campeche.
Won't be long before they give 99 / 09 a name.
Not much competition from that skinny, nekkid 08L.
1062. 62901IL
Quoting 1054. Hurricanes101:

So, did anyone notice the anticyclone not far from TD 9? Could that be where TD 9 is going? That could change the forecast.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8shr.GIF


Link doesn't work. 404 not found
1063. nash36
Quoting 1045. Envoirment:



Let's hope the HWRF is completely wrong. Although the 18z GFS trended slightly stronger and the UKMET is still showing a category 1 hurricane. Wouldn't be surprised if TD9 became a category 1 hurricane in the gulf.


This is very possible. A major? Unlikely. A CAT1 is highly probable, depending on if it has enough time over water.
Quoting 1049. mamothmiss:

is there a good chance it will go further north and west and miss central florida alltogether?


Possible. Hard to tell right now. Has still several days before landfall, wherever that might be. Anyone is fair game at this point.
1065. dk601
Quoting 1021. daddyjames:



LOL - you spent years trolling the blog? Wow, I love it when at least they are upfront and honest about it. ;) Welcome.
lol maybe it was a bad choice of wording but my intentions were good
Quoting 1028. RobbieM2000:

blob:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/8c7858e6-e7b3- 4 06c-b9d3-21726b70dab8

Maybe some action for SoCal in the long term. Obviously way to far out to tell.. but hey any hope is still hope. It hasnt rained in over 200 days (Janurary!)

All the fires in Calif sure could use some rain. That Soberanes/Big Sur fire has been burning for over a month now. I've got peeps back there, been following that fire. It never gets any attention by the media but when SoCal catches fire, all the media picks up on it lol
1067. 62901IL
Goodnight TD 8
68th day in a row of 90°F or higher in Savannah. And counting.
Quoting 1063. nash36:



This is very possible. A major? Unlikely. A CAT1 is highly probable, depending on if it has enough time over water.


Lets not forget about Katrina... It bombed out when it got in the gulf
Quoting 1054. Hurricanes101:

So, did anyone notice the anticyclone not far from TD 9? Could that be where TD 9 is going? That could change the forecast.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8shr.GIF

I'm starting to see evidence - radar and WV - that 09 has had two weak competing centers that are now de-coupling. But I always see multiple cocs.
Quoting 1062. 62901IL:



Link doesn't work. 404 not found


eliminate the space in the address found at "winds".
Quoting 1062. 62901IL:



Link doesn't work. 404 not found


It is meant to be a pic, but for some reason WU keeps putting a space between the N and D in winds and not posting it. That occured even after I fixed it.
1074. KORBIN
TD 8 is in a very moist environment. You can start to see popcorn convection on the North side, Hurricane Hunters are making another pass through the center, we shall see if she's starting to show her true colors.

Quoting 1049. mamothmiss:

is there a good chance it will go further north and west and miss central florida alltogether? I doubt it ,your stuck with it now.

just my opinion but i thiink the way things have been here in central florida the past decade td9 will go north near alabama or panhandle... i think luck is still on our side
Quoting 1043. GameDogMom:


I was wondering about that. Water on HWY 90 on the Ms Gulf Coast during the am/pm "rush" hour could be an issue, to say the least
its bad on a non tropical rainy day .I dread my drive to work in those conditions.
1078. 62901IL
Quoting 1073. Hurricanes101:



It is meant to be a pic, but for some reason WU keeps putting a space between the N and D in winds and not posting it. That occured even after I fixed it.


I saw it.
Cute. At least it makes landfall in a low-populated area.

Quoting 1073. Hurricanes101:



It is meant to be a pic, but for some reason WU keeps putting a space between the N and D in winds and not posting it. That occured even after I fixed it.


Annoying isn't it? Does the same with other letter combinations.
Ok,,,,any guesses,,,,,TD8 or TD9,,,,which will be named first,,,,,,,I going with TD9....
1082. 62901IL
By the Emperor.
Quoting 1074. KORBIN:

TD 8 is in a very moist environment. You can start to see popcorn convection on the North side, Hurricane Hunters are making another pass through the center, we shall see if she's starting to show her true colors.


There is no recon in either system at the moment. Recon just left TD 9
hope it goes to north florida i hate boarding up and spending alot of money on supplys... go north please td9
Don't allow a gap to break winds.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nds/wg8shr.GIF

Quoting 1062. 62901IL:

Link doesn't work. 404 not found
Quoting 813. MiamiHurricanes09:

Might as well just take a nap between the time you press "post comment" and the time it actually posts. :)
Thanks for the laugh, the only thing that made it too funny, is that it is true.
1087. Patrap
NWS Radar Floater

Click image for loop.

1088. 62901IL
Quoting 1085. BaltimoreBrian:

Don't allow a gap to break 'winds'.




I already saw it. Thanks for the tip.
Quoting 1082. 62901IL:

By the Emperor.

is this really for real ???????????
TD9 moving slightly South of due West. If it moves more to the South, it will be less influenced by the trough and may shift more Westward.
Quoting 1080. daddyjames:



Annoying isn't it? Does the same with other letter combinations.


yup it is. My point was, we need to see if TD 9 meets up with the anticyclone. If so, could change the shear forecasts.
Quoting 1076. mamothmiss:

just my opinion but i thiink the way things have been here in central florida the past decade td9 will go north near alabama or panhandle... i think luck is still on our side


Luck runs out eventually. Unfortunately because we have not had a significant storm here in quite a while, many, too many, people have become complacent. Complacency leads to apathy.
Quoting 1090. RetainingH2O:

TD9 moving slightly South of due West. If it moves more to the South, it will be less influenced by the trough and may shift more Westward.
sounds great here go west young man go west
Quoting 1090. RetainingH2O:

TD9 moving slightly South of due West. If it moves more to the South, it will be less influenced by the trough and may shift more Westward.


I doubt it would happen. That weakness is going to be there no matter what
1095. 62901IL
Quoting 1089. mamothmiss:

is this really for real ???????????


It's a model run of the HWRF.
Quoting 1092. ecflweatherfan:



Luck runs out eventually. Unfortunately because we have not had a significant storm here in quite a while, many, too many, people have become complacent. Complacency leads to apathy.
well im gonna wait 1 more day before boarding up and stocking up on supplys
Cody, is Gaston a big-ACE storm yet?
What absolutely astounds me is, if the GFS forecast is to be believed this far out, we could still be talking about 99L/TD09/what-could-be-named Hermine two weeks from now. is there such a thing as pre-storm fatigue?

Afterwards, of course we'll enter into one of those slower periods and everyone will be grumbling that we have nothing to talk about.
TD 9 will either go West into TX or get sucked up into FL.

Now, if it bombs out, all bets are off.
1100. ProPoly
Quoting 1090. RetainingH2O:

TD9 moving slightly South of due West. If it moves more to the South, it will be less influenced by the trough and may shift more Westward.


Probably not with how prominent that recurve hook is, but tilting more south would buy it additional time in the Gulf.
1101. FOREX
Quoting 1057. taco2me61:


LOL ok I didn't see the Swirl in the Gulf much less a "Center" LOL
sorry about that.....

Taco :o)
No worries. You keep me laughing 24/7 on this blog. Hope to meet you sometime.I'm in Panhandle though.
HWRF really likes 09L, huh. Maybe I'll drive up to catch that in the slim chance it happens. :)


Old tool for picking out multipe cocs, if they exist.
1105. Patrap
Someone is waiting just for you
spinning wheel is spinning true
Drop all your troubles, by the river side
Ride a painted pony
Let the spinning wheel fly



Quoting 859. CaribBoy:

GFS trending weaker with pre 92, no surprise here :\

OMG please help us lol.


It seems the NHC did indeed know in advance with dropping the 5-day from 60% to 50%, they did so even when the 12z GFS was still stronger, and before the Euro came out.
Quoting 1081. Beneteau373:

Ok,,,,any guesses,,,,,TD8 or TD9,,,,which will be named first,,,,,,,I going with TD9....

I think it will be TD8 being named first...lol
Dont like the current run of GFS  Major      going to Baton Rouge.    But it said that originally about 99l major in the gulf.
Quoting 1056. washingtonian115:

I don't think T.D 8 will recover.It is still being blasted by south easterly shear and in the forecast discussion by the NHC they stated that shear is only going to get higher.Its window may have closed.
Dmax might help it later on. Remember how it develop convection overnight. Might do the same today or tomorrow morning. I am still thinking though that td 9 might become Hermine before td 8.
Quoting 1101. FOREX:

No worries. You keep me laughing 24/7 on this blog. Hope to meet you sometime.I'm in Panhandle though.


we'll have to do that one day over lunch :o)
I'm in Mobile so you are just down the road LOL

Taco :o)
I'll start the guessing...mobile, al as a cat 1. Total guess but I expect the models to shift west like they normally do and that the nhc is being cautious and it will barely get into cat 1 status
I live in manatee county, about 15 miles,n of sarasota, just about 3 miles east of i75, when is this supposed to make landfall if it comes to this,area of Florida? I have am event Friday have,to plan accordingly, be safe everyone
1113. pingon
Quoting 1097. BaltimoreBrian:

Cody, is Gaston a big-ACE storm yet?


I'm not Cody but it's currently at just over 11 points of ACE - will likely generate 20+ points of ACE when all is said and done. Current YTD total ace is just over 25 and normal for this time is 27 - we should be above normal in ACE terms tomorrow.

For those interested, weatherbell have a nice ACE section which is updated frequently:

Link
Quoting 1071. Hurricanes101:



Let's show them the frame from 3 hours before, shall we, because if this thing gets protection aloft, then this is going to have a whole Mother final chapter. Yes, this could mean we need to upgrade our expectations a little.

Never said i did know you nor pretend too. But in the real world whether something is officially declared a td or not is going to affect someone how? I'm not talking about the computers but someone reading that on the blog. I don't think someone's going to rush out to get supplies. So i am just wondering how someone saying on this blog that something is a td when it was not quite officially called that needs to be told not to do that. And yes i find it silly whether i know you or not. If you were joking then ok. I am good with that. lol
Quoting 837. Hurricanes101:



It absolutely does matter because it was not official at that time. There are numerous people on here who would agree with me on that stance. You do not know me, so do not pretend that you do.

1117. Dakster
Quoting 781. daddyjames:



This time of year, it can go either way. Today was pretty toasty. How about you? Sun starting to get scarce?


Sun is still good thru this month. Next month you start to wake up and work in the dark... It kinda goes downhill fast from here though.
Quoting 1077. lurkersince2008:

its bad on a non tropical rainy day .I dread my drive to work in those conditions.


And last time I looked, about 2 months ago, Irish Hill was blocked off west of Keesler's main gate. They are starting to install the new gas lines. So...where would they re-route traffic if HWY 90 flooded? East Biloxi thru the base out to Pass rd and vise versa? The "roads" in East Biloxi could NEVER handle all that traffic along with any type of thunderstorm. They would have to close the Biloxi/OS bridge due to the flooding at 90 and Myrtle St. It would be a Pass rd to Pops Ferry Rd to D'ville and St Martin on Lemoyne Blv for ppl who work in Ocean Springs
Quoting 1108. victoria780:

Dont like the current run of GFS  Major      going to Baton Rouge.    But it said that originally about 99l major in the gulf.


I thought that was the Euro?
Quoting 1111. HaboobsRsweet:

I'll start the guessing...mobile, al as a cat 1. Total guess but I expect the models to shift west like they normally do and that the nhc is being cautious and it will barely get into cat 1 status


Hey we don't want that here not even a Cat 1.... so send it somewhere else
if you don't mind....

Taco :o)
Quoting 1079. BaltimoreBrian:

Cute. At least it makes landfall in a low-populated area.


Hey Brian, that would be landfall in Citrus or Levy county around the Crystal River area. We call that area the Nature Coast, actually there is quite a bit of viewers that live up that way. There is also some nice beaches in Hernando county near Weeki Wachee. A track like this would bring a significant storm surge.
i think from pensacola to destin will be hit
Quoting 1111. HaboobsRsweet:

I'll start the guessing...mobile, al as a cat 1. Total guess but I expect the models to shift west like they normally do and that the nhc is being cautious and it will barely get into cat 1 status
Come on 8 & 9 Come on!!!! Daddy needs the rain!!!!
Hunting season is coming up and got to get those food plots in the ground!!!!
Quoting 1116. Flstorminterceptor:

Never said i did know you nor pretend too. But in the real world whether something is officially declared a td or not is going to affect someone how? I'm not talking about the computers but someone reading that on the blog. I don't think someone's going to rush out to get supplies. So i am just wondering how someone saying on this blog that something is a td when it was not quite officially called that needs to be told not to do that. And yes i find it silly whether i know you or not. If you were joking then ok. I am good with that. lol




I was not joking, no one should call a system classified before the NHC does. They are the official ruling, not anyone on this blog. Whether you think it is relevant or not, there are people on this site that freak out or those who lurk who then can spread that misinformation. This is the internet in 2016, misinformation spreads fast.

So yes, it absolutely does matter.
1125. hullwx
Quoting 1026. Michfan:



Yeah you can see it on water vapor and radar. TD9 is moving a ton of the atmosphere at the moment.


This is what I mentioned earlier - this is a very large general swirl. We didn't get traditional pops even as far North as NCFL today - we had fast-moving E/W clouds/sprinkles and wet-washcloth air.
Quoting 1079. BaltimoreBrian:

Cute. At least it makes landfall in a low-populated area.




That's actually heading right over me lol
1127. Patrap
1128. nolajet
Quoting 1108. victoria780:

Dont like the current run of GFS Major going to Baton Rouge. But it said that originally about 99l major in the gulf.



You mean 384 hours out?
Quoting 1111. HaboobsRsweet:

I'll start the guessing...mobile, al as a cat 1. Total guess but I expect the models to shift west like they normally do and that the nhc is being cautious and it will barely get into cat 1 status
thats great news for us here in central florida .... maybe our luck is still with us... this is great news thanks... sorry for the people in louisiana though
1130. Pallis1
Quoting 998. Patrap:

Earlier






1131. FOREX
Quoting 1110. taco2me61:



we'll have to do that one day over lunch :o)
I'm in Mobile so you are just down the road LOL

Taco :o)
Sounds great. I drive through Mobile when I go to Biloxi. For some reason I thought u lived in South Florida. I live in Panama City Beach. So, yes, we're neighbors, cool.
I just wish NOAA/NHC/NWPC could pick ONE name per storm & stick with it? NORAD has the same ID # for satellites & debris from launch till demise. I understand why you do it the way you do but 99L should be listed or track with whatever is posted? Maybe I'm just bein a pain in the posterior ?? Non"total weather" forlks [I work on GOES-R] don't like a bunch of confusion added ?? Sorry if I B&M too much !!
Quoting 1129. mamothmiss:

thats great news for us here in central florida .... maybe our luck is still with us... this is great news thanks... sorry for the people in louisiana though


He is guessing, not an official forecast. Just watch the system and check your location weather to see if you need to do anything.
Quoting 1097. BaltimoreBrian:

Cody, is Gaston a big-ACE storm yet?


I'm not him of course, I do know that it surpassed Earl several days ago in that regard. The actual numbers though he can tell you about :)
GFS ensembles like future 92L. 3 paths on the ensembles. Just missing the outer banks, right into the east coast(florida to carolinas), and through the straights like 99L into the gulf. Will probably be the most interesting storm this season
Can somebody refer me to a good map(s) that shows both the high pressure and the trough that are expected to influence the track of TD9?
Quoting 1128. nolajet:



Are you somehow viewing into the future to read the 0z model? The current model doesn't show the GFS doing that.
I believe he is talking about the long range GFS 372 hours.
Quoting 1127. Patrap:



Look at that angry dragon like face coming off the west coast of Fl. Yesterday it was a face but not like that
anyone else noticing this thing making a b line for the northern part of Cuba?
1140. beell
Quoting 1094. Hurricanes101:



I doubt it would happen. That weakness is going to be there no matter what


That weakness is weaker on the Atlantic side of Florida. And it may be 60-72 hrs before it pokes back SW into the NE gulf.

GFS has been rock solid and spot on with the low to mid-level recurve track of TD 09 into the northeast gulf and I think this is the track with the highest probability-but there is some uncertainty on how west & south it gets in that time frame. I live in TX and would be happy if the higher probability scenario came true (no offense!)

1141. mfcmom
Quoting 1131. FOREX:

Sounds great. I drive through Mobile when I go to Biloxi. For some reason I thought u lived in South Florida. I live in Panama City Beach. So, yes, we're neighbors, cool.
Also in Panama City! Save me some lunch!
Quoting 1130. Pallis1:




TD 9 trying to sneak under the shear as good as it can without running into Cuba. Interesting little bugger!
Dakster check out comment #1331 on my blog. Wunderground is not notifying when I receive wundermail.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda, on Tropical
Depression Eight, located about 350 miles southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on newly formed Tropical Depression
Nine, located about 60 miles south of Key West, Florida.

A weak area of low pressure located near the upper Texas coast is
producing disorganized shower activity over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico and adjacent coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana and
southeastern Texas. Proximity to land and only marginally favorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the low
moves slowly southwestward during the next couple of days. For
additional information on the rainfall associated with this system,
please see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Monday night or Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be
favorable for development of this system later this week while it
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi
1145. scott39
TD 9 has been diving WSW or 250 degrees for the last 6 hours. It is running from the shear. The WSW is probably temporary and will resume a W to WNW soon.
Quoting 1117. Dakster:



Sun is still good thru this month. Next month you start to wake up and work in the dark... It kinda goes downhill fast from here though.


Internet connection kinda slow up there in AK? I know that it is some distance . . . ;)

Quoting 1128. nolajet:



You mean 384 hours out? ok 16 days instead of 14  why are people so much a smart arce at this sight

I'm still a novice at understanding meteorology, so humor my question, please. It appears to me that 09 is being squashed by three ULLs. Wouldn't that shoot it due west until one of them moves and creates a weakness? Or, does it stall out?
I'm surprised no one has yet to point out that 09L is probably going to make landfall in Cuba tonight.

Quoting 1145. scott39:

TD 9 has been diving WSW or 250 degrees for the last 6 hours. It is running from the shear. The WSW is probably temporary and will resume a W to WNW soon.


It scheduled a meeting with the anticyclone over east Cuba. lol
Quoting 1097. BaltimoreBrian:

Cody, is Gaston a big-ACE storm yet?
Base on Wiki Gaston Ace is 9.305.
Here's the link to the shear product 101 posted. Problem was a space in url between "n" and "d" in wind
a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlant ic/winds/wg8shr.GIF" target="_blank" 5pm edt shear product from CIMSS

Ps. Worked on preview, lol. Guess we cannot hot link CIMSS. I keep forgetting that.
Quoting 1106. Climate175:

It seems the NHC did indeed know in advance with dropping the 5-day from 60% to 50%, they did so even when the 12z GFS was still stronger, and before the Euro came out.


Shear luck?
Quoting 1117. Dakster:



Sun is still good thru this month. Next month you start to wake up and work in the dark... It kinda goes downhill fast from here though.


Hiya, Dakster

When I was in Whitehorse, I always felt sorry for the kids walking to school with flashlights, what little sunlight was when they were in school, and then walking home with flashlights again. I admire anyone that can live up there. I'd never do it again. NOT my cup of tea!

-L
Sounds great. I drive through Mobile when I go to Biloxi. For some reason I thought u lived in South Florida. I live in Panama City Beach. So, yes, we're neighbors, cool.
Also in Panama City! Save me some lunch!

Over here in Elberta, Al .... car pool!
1156. Pallis1
Quoting 1121. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey Brian, that would be landfall in Citrus or Levy county around the Crystal River area. We call that area the Nature Coast, actually there is quite a bit of viewers that live up that way. There is also some nice beaches in Hernando county near Weeki Wachee. A track like this would bring a significant storm surge.


Exactly. Those are the people we want in Florida. Food producers not people users. That model is just as biased as I am.
1157. Patrap


She's surrounded on all sides by a fire of immense proportions, and now a dome of high pressure aloft, has suddenly appeared.

It's enough to hatch at least one, perhaps?

just finished watching our orlando tropical update at 7:51pm channel 13... they just said td9 should go into the gulf then turn back and cross the big bend of florida and go north of jacksonville and then into the atlantic with 50mph winds the entire time.............. GREAT NEWS
1160. WxLogic
RUC sure doing a good job with the short term evolution of TD#9 (again - Bottom layer is 850MB, Mid layer is 700MB, and Top layer is 500MB):

@23Z (54min ago)


@12Z Tomorrow AM - Almost fully stacked and starting to curve

1161. FOREX
Quoting 1155. Nolehead:

Sounds great. I drive through Mobile when I go to Biloxi. For some reason I thought u lived in South Florida. I live in Panama City Beach. So, yes, we're neighbors, cool.
Also in Panama City! Save me some lunch!

Over here in Elberta, Al .... car pool!
You got it!!!
Quoting 1150. Hurricanes101:



It scheduled a meeting with the anticyclone over east Cuba. lol


that wont be good if that happen if TD 9 gets under that anticyclone then watch out all bets are off!
Quoting 1159. mamothmiss:

just finished watching our orlando tropical update at 7:51pm channel 13... they just said td9 should go into the gulf then turn back and cross the big bend of florida and go north of jacksonville and then into the atlantic with 50mph winds the entire time.............. GREAT NEWS


That is the current forecast from the NHC, not necessarily what will end up happening. There is a cone of uncertainty for a reason.
1164. jpsb
Is there something going on off the upper Texas coast? It sure feels like there is something topical off the tx coast near Galveston.
1165. FOREX
Quoting 1158. OracleDeAtlantis:



She's surrounded on all sides by a fire of immense proportions, and now a dome of high pressure aloft, has suddenly appeared.

It's enough to hatch at least one, perhaps?


Was I worth waiting for? I am the Ghost of 99L. My wish is your command.
1166. USCGLT
Quoting 1110. taco2me61:



we'll have to do that one day over lunch :o)
I'm in Mobile so you are just down the road LOL

Taco :o)
You know Taco there are several of us on the Gulf Coast. When things slow down a bit we should coordinate a "Wunderlunch" with you, Patrap and anyone else that wants to come....I'm in Vancleave Ms btw
Quoting 1163. Hurricanes101:



That is the current forecast from the NHC, not necessarily what will end up happening. There is a cone of uncertainty for a reason.
Well 50mph isnt that bad and going further north away from central florida is good also
could even wake up tommorow and they will have this storm not even hitting florida and going more north or west or even falling apart... thats happens alot of times
Pretty anticlimactic here in Marathon, FL. I've been watching 99L and now TD9 like a hawk since we live in a boat in Boot Key Harbor. It's been a little windy with a few showers but the storms last week were much stronger. Glad our prep work was not needed and now I am watching the blob over Puerto Rico.

With family and friends along the Gulf Coast, I hope TD9 doesn't do more than shake loose some dead palm fronds and water your grass!
1170. nash36
Quoting 1166. USCGLT:

You know Taco there are several of us on the Gulf Coast. When things slow down a bit we should coordinate a "Wunderlunch" with you, Patrap and anyone else that wants to come....I'm in Vancleave Ms btw


Hell, I'll make the drive from Charleston, SC! Better make it a WUdinner.
doubt if western cuba has much negative effect on ex99
1172. scott39
Quoting 1157. Patrap:




Keep the radar shots coming Pat.
1173. Patrap
🌉 🌊 🌎 🌗



Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop


Quoting 1148. MisipiGrl:

I'm still a novice at understanding meteorology, so humor my question, please. It appears to me that 09 is being squashed by three ULLs. Wouldn't that shoot it due west until one of them moves and creates a weakness? Or, does it stall out?


Weakness in the ridge is to the NE.



Direction of flow indicated :

Quoting 1149. CybrTeddy:

I'm surprised no one has yet to point out that 09L is probably going to make landfall in Cuba tonight.


Stormpetrol did make a point earlier about 09L's SW movement. Probably... well, probably seems a little too certain. Maybe? A decent chance, anyway.
1176. palmpt
Quoting 1170. nash36:



Hell, I'll make the drive from Charleston, SC! Better make it a WUdinner.

I'm in Biloxi and New Orleans...
1177. FOREX
Quoting 1139. masiello3:

anyone else noticing this thing making a b line for the northern part of Cuba?
After 14 days of this crap and it decides to make landfall in Eastern Cuba? Man, it better not. My Wife is so mad with all the time I've been on the blog this week.
Link

center probably goes on shore near Havana, Cuba

1179. Patrap

A weak area of low pressure located near the upper Texas coast is
producing disorganized shower activity over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico and adjacent coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana and
southeastern Texas. Proximity to land and only marginally favorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the low
moves slowly southwestward during the next couple of days. For
additional information on the rainfall associated with this system,
please see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

doesn't seem to be a large rain field with td9
Quoting 1166. USCGLT:

You know Taco there are several of us on the Gulf Coast. When things slow down a bit we should coordinate a "Wunderlunch" with you, Patrap and anyone else that wants to come....I'm in Vancleave Ms btw


We could do that :o) I'm game and would Love to be able
to put faces to the Blog names....

But one look at me and you'll all know why I'm "Taco"
in Mobile LOL

Taco :o)
Palm Beach County EOC still at level 3...

Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Activation Levels

Level 1 - Full activation. All lead and support agencies are notified. The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, the Executive Policy Group (EPG), all Sections and Branches, their staff, as well as State and Federal representatives.

Level 2 - Partial activation. Selected Emergency Operations Center (EOC) staff are notified. The EOC is staffed by Division of Emergency Management (DEM) personnel, appropriate Sections, their staff, and outside agencies as required to meet the operational need of the incident.

.Level 3 - Monitoring. The Division of Emergency Management (DEM) transitions to this level for incidents or special events that have the potential for escalation. The County Warning Point (CWP), DEM, and/or other emergency management personnel are actively monitoring the incident/event. Notifications are made to appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations that may be required to take action as part of their normal responsibilities.

Level 4 - Normal Operations. This is the normal day-to-day operational level for the Division of Emergency Management (DEM) and the County Warning Point (CWP), which are continuously monitoring local, regional, national, and international events, evaluating threats, and analyzing their impact on Palm Beach County. Appropriate Division and County personnel and support organizations are notified and informed through a variety of communication methods based on the urgency required of the incident/event.
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/AMX_loop.gif

Bit more unstable atmosphere in Dade County looks like overnight will be rainy, good sleeping weather!
Quoting 1177. FOREX:

After 14 days of this crap and it decides to make landfall in Eastern Cuba? Man, it better not. My Wife is so mad with all the time I've been on the blog this week.


Western Cuba (I do it all of the time)
Quoting 1177. FOREX:

After 14 days of this crap and it decides to make landfall in Eastern Cuba? Man, it better not. My Wife is so mad with all the time I've been on the blog this week.
maybe we will get lucky and after it hits cuba it fllas apart or keeps going south
1186. Pallis1
Quoting 1149. CybrTeddy:

I'm surprised no one has yet to point out that 09L is probably going to make landfall in Cuba tonight.


According to my friend from the Miami vice days, that entire section is a huge rock cliff that extends down many fathoms. My opinion is that the underlying current is trying to do its regular thing and filter the extra warm top water off the Gulf but is encountering confusion in the direction of the surface winds. Dog Rock may be far behind, but it can back up water when looked at from underwater plus tidal changes. Yes, it could go on land for a minute, but only as a northern valley storm. It will follow the warm water.
1187. 19N81W
As much as we have only one is a threat but still seems quiet not really much out there.......,imagine 2005 we wouldn't even be looking at any of these systems
"Weakness in the ridge is to the NE"

Thank You, daddyjames!!
1189. dearmas
When do the next set of models run?

Quoting 1181. taco2me61:



We could do that :o) I'm game and would Love to be able
to put faces to the Blog names....

But one look at me and you'll all know why I'm "Taco"
in Mobile LOL

Taco :o)


Tall Anglo-Caucasian Old-guy?
Well I did have my eye on the sky most of the day. It was amazing with the lower level puffy clouds streaking across the sky, the mid level was going the other way with the shear just ripping it and then the high clouds were still moving in the same direction with the low cloud with no shear, I new there was something going on and then boom TD, still below my lat though and looking at the clouds now they seem like they are spinning towards us, has to be a hoptical illusion. In the upper keys.
1192. jpsb
Quoting 1179. Patrap:


A weak area of low pressure located near the upper Texas coast is
producing disorganized shower activity over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico and adjacent coastal areas of southwestern Louisiana and
southeastern Texas.




Thanks Patrap
1193. Patrap
1194. Michfan
Quoting 1167. mamothmiss:

Well 50mph isnt that bad and going further north away from central florida is good also


You have to remember that these storms have effects hundreds of miles from the center. Even on that track Central FL will be on the east side of the storm with still significant effects. It pays to not pay attention to just the center.
1195. marsHen
nice east breeze most of the day. a few scattered showers. hot. water temps 29-31 C. this low-populated area called the Big Bend, the Nature Coast - we're watching the track of that storm. this storm could seriously impact the clam and oyster aquaculture around the Cedar Keys and Horseshoe Beach, and the fisher folks who live here.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1177. FOREX:

After 14 days of this crap and it decides to make landfall in Eastern Cuba? Man, it better not. My Wife is so mad with all the time I've been on the blog this week.

I so agree and the boss lady is still mad at me
for even calling "Jake you know Jake from Statefarm"

Taco :o)
Quoting 1189. dearmas:

When do the next set of models run?




They are starting the calculations as we speak - should be out by 12:00 am/2:00 am Eastern TIme Zone - depending upon if you want the GFS/ECMWF.
Good Evening; still watching for former 99L, now a TD, potential impacts up here in the Florida Big Bend.  Hopefully just a TS as currently forecast but storms in this Eastern Gulf vicinity, even if disorganized, can be prolific rain  makers for a huge swatch of the State.  When this one finally goes away, I am going to party like it's 1999............................
I like the analog of TD 9 to Hurricane Elena. Elena struggled through the Atlantic and Greater Antilles most of her life while she was a tropical wave until she got to a position similar to TD 9. It wasn't until western Cuba where it got classified as a tropical storm and then moved towards the central GOM, steadily intensifying and then turning NE towards Florida. And we all know how much of a headache her erratic movement was in the Gulf. In terms of track, it wouldn't surprise me if TD 9/Hermine were to wander around the Gulf of Mexico in a similar erratic fashion, and keep this saga of uncertainty going for several more days. I sure hope in terms of intensity this doesn't end up being like the CAT 3 that Elena was.
Quoting 1121. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey Brian, that would be landfall in Citrus or Levy county around the Crystal River area. We call that area the Nature Coast, actually there is quite a bit of viewers that live up that way. There is also some nice beaches in Hernando county near Weeki Wachee. A track like this would bring a significant storm surge.


That's my house. No thank you. At least we're not right on the coast.
Quoting 1190. daddyjames:



Tall Anglo-Caucasian Old-guy?


Yeah I think LOL I was a Tall Blonde male now
I'm just a Tall Old guy just saying
LOL

Taco :o)
Quoting 1202. taco2me61:



Yeah I think LOL I was a Tall Blonde male now
I'm just a Tall Old guy just saying
LOL

Taco :o)


At least you got the tall . . . I just got the ACO ;)
Invest 99L or if you prefer technically TD # 9 continues being a mess, both in appearance and behavior. Lets see if it can gain enough status to be called a minimal disorganized TS. By now I doubt it.
In terms of future invest 92 L, it is no surprising it could not develop at all (50 % either way at long range). I consider if a storm or hurricane is going to affect the Leeward islands and /or PR this year it will form close to those islands.


The storm goes through the carribean hot tub. If it slows down there we are defiantly dealing with a cat5!
New Blog!!!
1207. scott39
Quoting 1120. taco2me61:



Hey we don't want that here not even a Cat 1.... so send it somewhere else
if you don't mind....

Taco :o


Are you ready Taco? Mobile isn't in the crosshairs but the cone is wide and open to change. Its too HOT for a storm and the power to go out.
Appears as thought it's moving SW attempting to get under the anticyclone located over western Cuba. She's just begging for low shear and to be ventilated properly.

Quoting 1079. BaltimoreBrian:

Cute. At least it makes landfall in a low-populated area.



Huh?! I resemble that remark!!
Quoting 1205. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:



The storm goes through the carribean hot tub. If it slows down there we are defiantly dealing with a cat5!


Sorry, really not worth a mention that far out. Sept 12th? lol
TD9 looks like mush but it still has that counterclockwise spin.

Night all.
More slow drama tomorrow I'm sure.
Quoting 1135. wunderweatherman123:

GFS ensembles like future 92L. 3 paths on the ensembles. Just missing the outer banks, right into the east coast(florida to carolinas), and through the straights like 99L into the gulf. Will probably be the most interesting storm this season


You forgot to tell that all 3 paths actually pass near or over the Leewards :)



Levi has a new update out if anyone hasn't noticed yet --> http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
1215. GPTGUY
once TD9 passes the northern shear from the high pressure trough i expect RI to begin

it's hot out there in the water. LLC is well defined and when conditions aloft are favorable it can quickly stand up.
depending on how the trough drops out of the north and how deep it digs this could actually stall out 1-2 days longer than the forecast suggests.

given the fact that it has low level circulation that is strong it won't take much time for it to rebuild the mid level convection and stack up when the shear backs off in the next 12-24 hours. cuba land interaction is pulling it further south than the models are picking up so it may have 1-2, maybe 3 days longer than the models predict depending on how the ridges split and how deep the canadian trough digs south.

RI should begin within the next day. although the high pressure ridge over florida is suppressing TD9 that suppression and cuban land interaction are forcing this farther south than most of the models are showing. that will buy more time for TD9 in the 85 degree water with favorable conditions aloft from tomorrow through several days.

Quoting 1209. PuppyToes:


Huh?! I resemble that remark!!

That would really be something! Yikes. The HWRF was showing a very similar scenario a couple days ago. We would probably be looking at 35-45 mph sustained winds here, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Go figure, a I'm outta town.
1218. CW7859
......
1219. CW7859
just testing...