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TD 8 forms; 97L a potential threat to the Caribbean and U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:30 PM GMT on August 19, 2011

Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Honduras, and is headed westwards towards a landfall in Belize on Saturday. TD 8 is a small storm, so will impact a relatively small area of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, all of Belize, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. TD 8 has just enough room between its center and the coast of Honduras to intensify into a moderate strength tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds before landfall. It is very unlikely TD8 has the time or room to intensify into a hurricane; NHC gave the storm just a 7% chance of making it to hurricane strength in their 11am EDT wind probability forecast. Should TD8 make it to tropical storm strength, it would be called Harvey.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 8.

Invest 97L likely to become a tropical storm next week, could threaten the U.S.
A tropical wave near 14°N 48°W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving westward near 20 mph. This wave, designated Invest 97L by NHC yesterday, has seen a marked increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, but dry air to the north and west is slowing development. An impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops, but the storm is at least a day away from forming a well-defined surface circulation. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C, about 2°C above the threshold needed to support a tropical storm, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 97L.

The computer models have shown an unusual amount of agreement in developing 97L over the past few days, and all the ingredients seem to be in place for a tropical storm to form by Monday or Tuesday as 97L crosses the Northeast Caribbean. The atmosphere is expected to be moister over the Caribbean, wind shear will remain a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures will increase to near 29°C. The main impediment for development will likely be two-fold: too much dry, stable air, and proximity to land.

As seen in Figure 3, there has been an unusual amount of dry, stable air in the Atlantic this year, due to a combination of dry air from Africa, and upper-atmosphere dynamics creating large areas of sinking air that dry as they warm and approach the surface. This stable air has been largely responsible for the fact that none of our seven tropical storms so far this year has made it to hurricane strength, despite the presence of sea surface temperatures that are the 3rd warmest on record across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Emily in early August encountered problems with dry air when it crossed the Northeast Caribbean, and 97L may have similar difficulties.


Figure 3. Vertical instability of the atmosphere during 2011 in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Observed vertical instability (blue line) has been much lower than the climatological average from previous years (black line), due to an unusual amount of dry air in the atmosphere, inhibiting tropical storm development this year. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Encounters with land will be another potential major problem for 97L. Most of the computer models take 97L near or over Puerto Rico Sunday night, then very close to or over mountainous Hispaniola Monday night through Tuesday. It is unlikely that 97L will be stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm when it encounters these islands, and passage over the islands could severely disrupt the storm. However, if 97L takes a path just south or north of Hispaniola, the potential exists for the storm to intensify into a hurricane.

There will be moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the north of the islands early next week, so a path just to the south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti would be more likely to let 97L intensify into a hurricane. A west-northwest motion is likely for 97L through Wednesday, which would bring the storm to the vicinity of Jamaica-Central Cuba-the Central Bahamas on Wednesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, the models agree that a trough of low pressure will dip down over the Eastern U.S., which is likely to turn 97L to the north. The exact timing and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to model, and will be critical in determining where and when 97L will turn to the north. The best model for predicting the timing and strength of such troughs over the past two years has been the ECMWF (European Center model), and this model currently brings 97L into the Florida Keys on Thursday night next week. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models.

Remember that a 7-day forecast by even our best model will be off by an average of over 700 miles, so it is too early to tell what part of the U.S. might be most at risk from a strike by 97L. This weekend would be a good time to go over your hurricane preparedness.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L off the coast of Africa.

Invest 98L near the coast of Africa
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is moving west to west-northwestward at 10 - 15 mph. This wave, designated Invest 98L by NHC yesterday, is large and well-organized, with a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. 98L will bring strong, gusty winds and heavy rains to the Cape Verde Islands today and Saturday as the storm skirts to the south. So far this morning, top sustained winds measured in the islands were 24 mph at Mindelo. Water temperatures are warm, near 27 - 28°C, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, so 98L should continue to organize today. NHC gave the storm a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression in their 8am advisory. Once 98L passes to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, it has a long stretch of ocean to cross before it could affect any other land areas. Approximately 70 - 80% of all tropical cyclones that pass this close to the Cape Verde Islands end up curving out to sea and not affecting any other land areas, according to Dr. Bob Hart's excellent historical probability of landfall charts. The latest set of long-range model runs go along with this idea, but it is too early to be confident of this.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

4501. Walshy
I woke up today finding ants crawling on my laptop.
Quoting Patrap:

The barrier is about to break off! We're overrun!

63 hours out t.c passes just south of d.r Hispaniola gets pummeled with heavy rain


Looks like a low level center is forming at 14 north 57 west on 97L. As we know, if this system develops and stays just north of the islands, Florida and the Keys may be in for a big storm. The bermuda high is forecast to extend west to 79-80 degrees west through next Thursday-Friday. Last track like this for a cat 3-4 to hit Florida via Herbert's box was Donna in 1960. Donna was a large hurricane and crossed the Keys and then the west coast of Florida. Hurricane force winds affected Dade and Broward.

Hurricane Donna was the most destructive hurricane of the season. After reaching Category 5 strength in the open ocean in early September, it passed north of the Greater Antilles as a Category 4. Donna hit the Florida Keys, Fort Myers, Florida, the Outer Banks, and finally Long Island, New York on September 12. Donna caused $400 million in damage (1950 dollars, $3.3 billion in 2005 dollars), and caused 364 deaths, of which 148 were directly caused by the storm.
""
recon for 97L is a go for today



000
NOUS42 KNHC 201500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1100Z
D. 15.8N 61.8W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 21/2300Z
D. 16.5N 65.00W
E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION
Quoting Walshy:
I woke up today finding ants crawling on my laptop.

Ortho Bug-be-Gone
4509. WxLogic
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I still think it's stronger than 60mph.


I do agree... 65MPH minimum.
4510. aquak9
Quoting Walshy:
I woke up today finding ants crawling on my laptop.

Drink Diet Coke instead of regular coke. That way when you spew after watching these stinking models, there won't be any sugar to attract the ants.
Just cause some preliminary data says, "category 2 hurricane" doesn't mean it is. The nhc has done the right thing, pressures have risen and there is no eyewall.
4512. wpb
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

63 hours out t.c passes just south of d.r Hispaniola gets pummeled with heavy rain
please update. c how close its to earier run.
Quoting aquak9:

Drink Diet Coke instead of regular coke. That way when you spew after watching these stinking models, there won't be any sugar to attract the ants.

LOL
4514. P451
Quoting hotrods:
On visible Sat, 97 seems it has taken a bit north of due west motion or some sort of center relocation, imo.


It is a little difficult to ascertain a heading because of the ever growing size of the mid and upper levels. It's best to look at a long loop of the system to try to figure out if it's changing course.

Here's 30 hours (1 hour per frame) of 97L. Certainly a WNW motion seems evident but it has also expanded in size possibly causing a little trickery of the mind here.



The surface center had just become prominent around midnight last night - finally firing convection right next to it. That is what I might try to watch - the smaller blob within the larger scope - to figure on a direction.



Here, you can see it appears to just be a westerly heading. The center is located just east of the blob.

You can also see an outflow boundary head to the WSW in this loop indicating dry air is still being ingested.
Quoting WxLogic:


I do agree... 65MPH minimum.


I agree that you agree.
4516. wxhatt
Quoting cloudburst2011:
well the way it looks now i would cancel until tomorrow..we will see they sure wont find a closed off low if they do go...


I sure hope they do go. Any flight level and dropsonde data they get will be an essential tool for the model extrapolation.
Time: 15:07:30Z
Coordinates: 16.9167N 87.6667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.3 mb (~ 24.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,539 meters (~ 5,049 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.8 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 138° at 54 knots (From the SE at ~ 62.1 mph)
Air Temp: 17.8°C (~ 64.0°F)
Dew Pt: 15.1°C (~ 59.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 13 mm/hr (~ 0.51 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

75 hours out interaction with Hispaniola weakens it
Quoting MrstormX:
Just cause some preliminary data says, "category 2 hurricane" doesn't mean it is. The nhc has done the right thing, pressures have risen and there is no eyewall.

It's trying.
what is going on at 14n 60 west? could the llc reform there? tia!
4521. WxLogic
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I agree that you agree.


lol... we all live to agree.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's trying.

Too late. Time to cash in.
4523. Walshy
Quoting aquak9:

Drink Diet Coke instead of regular coke. That way when you spew after watching these stinking models, there won't be any sugar to attract the ants.


I only drink water! I live well inland in NC. Must be ant season or something.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I still think it's stronger than 60mph.
I think this is 60 or 65 MPH storm.
I have a personal friend who lives in roatan island he said they had to go into there basement and some roofs were blown off.... nice
Quoting weatherh98:
I have a personal friend who lives in roatan island he said they had to go into there basement and some roofs were blown off.... nice

Nice? I think you mean "wow"
Thank you P451!

Quoting P451:


It is a little difficult to ascertain a heading because of the ever growing size of the mid and upper levels. It's best to look at a long loop of the system to try to figure out if it's changing course.

Here's 30 hours (1 hour per frame) of 97L. Certainly a WNW motion seems evident but it has also expanded in size possibly causing a little trickery of the mind here.



The surface center had just become prominent around midnight last night - finally firing convection right next to it. That is what I might try to watch - the smaller blob within the larger scope - to figure on a direction.



Here, you can see it appears to just be a westerly heading. The center is located just east of the blob.

You can also see an outflow boundary head to the WSW in this loop indicating dry air is still being ingested.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Even if it was flagged, seems unusual...
The SFMR algorithm has big corrections for areas of hard rain (it does actually measure the roughness of the sea surface, certainly influenced by a significant rainfall).
If the plane moves from an area of little to no rain to an intense rainfall, it *could* yield that result, and quite erroneously.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Nice? I think you mean "wow"

Try reading it a second time.
Quoting P451:


It is a little difficult to ascertain a heading because of the ever growing size of the mid and upper levels. It's best to look at a long loop of the system to try to figure out if it's changing course.

Here's 30 hours (1 hour per frame) of 97L. Certainly a WNW motion seems evident but it has also expanded in size possibly causing a little trickery of the mind here.



The surface center had just become prominent around midnight last night - finally firing convection right next to it. That is what I might try to watch - the smaller blob within the larger scope - to figure on a direction.



Here, you can see it appears to just be a westerly heading. The center is located just east of the blob.

You can also see an outflow boundary head to the WSW in this loop indicating dry air is still being ingested.


How fast is this thing moving? About 20mph? Speed may be against it, just like it was with Emily. Thank you for your graphics btw.
4531. emcf30
Quoting weatherh98:
I have a personal friend who lives in roatan island he said they had to go into there basement and some roofs were blown off.... nice


If that were to be true, I certainly see nothing nice about that.
4532. jonelu
Quoting wpb:
please update. c how close its to earier run.
are you getting nervous? I know I am. I have a guy coming over to help me fix some small issues on my roof today. I usually dont put much creedance in the models this far out especially on a system that doesnt have a closed COC. But the models agree and have been pointing in the same direction for awhile. UGH!

87 hours out t.c in the gap between Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica
Quoting Walshy:
I woke up today finding ants crawling on my laptop.
Were you eating a candy bar, while blogging last night?
4536. WxLogic
75HRS:



2 choices attempt to head WNW S coast of Cuba or NW closer to NE Cuba / Bahamas...
4537. jonelu
Quoting jonelu:
are you getting nervous? I know I am. I have a guy coming over to help me fix some small issues on my roof today. I usually dont put much creedance in the models this far out especially on a system that doesnt have a closed COC. But the models agree and have been pointing in the same direction for awhile. UGH!
excuse my mis-spelling! *credence
4538. aquak9
Camera 3 miles inland from Jax Beach, looking south. Pretty clouds over our pond.

Link
Quoting aquak9:

Drink Diet Coke instead of regular coke. That way when you spew after watching these stinking models, there won't be any sugar to attract the ants.


might attract fat ants.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Looks like Charley #2


deja vu all over again?

Was not listening to all the hype because of how this season has been, but... 97L is finally making me a little nervous! But it will have to tangle with nearly all of the Caribbean islands so i don't expect a major or anything. Seems like it could reach hurricane strength (finally...)
nice link pat
4543. angiest
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Too late. Time to cash in.


Ever heard of Humberto?

A small cyclone, the storm continued to organize quickly as it turned north-northeastward, while radar imagery suggested the formation of an eye by early on September 13.[9] Based on reports from Hurricane Hunters, Humberto was upgraded to a hurricane at 0515 UTC on September 13, while located about 15 miles (20 km) off the coast of Texas.[10] The hurricane made landfall a few miles to the east of High Island at around 0700 UTC. A well-defined eye was maintained with strong convection around it, and Hurricane Hunters reported sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) about two hours after landfall.[11] However, post-storm analysis later determined that the winds were a bit stronger—about 90 mph (150 km/h).[2]

Small storms can spin up fast near the coast. Not saying that will happen to Harvey, but hardly unprecedented.
Quoting atmoaggie:
The SFMR algorithm has big corrections for areas of hard rain (it does actually measure the roughness of the sea surface, certainly influenced by a significant rainfall).
If the plane moves from an area of little to no rain to an intense rainfall, it *could* yield that result, and highly erroneously.

So, SFMR screwed up? lol
Quoting emcf30:


If that were to be true, I certainly see nothing nice about that.
I think he means nice in a sarcastic way.
Quoting jonelu:
excuse my mis-spelling! *credence

That's one word I can never get right either. I always just think of the band CCR.
4547. wxhatt
Quoting sarahjola:
what is going on at 14n 60 west? could the llc reform there? tia!


actually, the GFS model would like to follow the convetion reformation deal, to the north, say closer to 15N.
what is going on at 14n 60 west? could the llc reform there? tia! i will assume that this is impossible since no one wants to touch it. lol
""
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


might attract fat ants.


lol
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1100Z
D. 15.8N 61.8W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 21/2300Z
D. 16.5N 65.00W
E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION
Good morning, and a thankyou Levi32
Quoting angiest:


Ever heard of Humberto?

A small cyclone, the storm continued to organize quickly as it turned north-northeastward, while radar imagery suggested the formation of an eye by early on September 13.[9] Based on reports from Hurricane Hunters, Humberto was upgraded to a hurricane at 0515 UTC on September 13, while located about 15 miles (20 km) off the coast of Texas.[10] The hurricane made landfall a few miles to the east of High Island at around 0700 UTC. A well-defined eye was maintained with strong convection around it, and Hurricane Hunters reported sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h) about two hours after landfall.[11] However, post-storm analysis later determined that the winds were a bit stronger—about 90 mph (150 km/h).[2]

Small storms can spin up fast near the coast. Not saying that will happen to Harvey, but hardly unprecedented.

Not unprecedented, but very unlikely to occur with Harvey.
4554. Patrap
TS Harvey almost looks to be nestling in a Annular Way in Place.


4555. wxhatt
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, August 20th, with Video


Good Morning Levi!

Looking forward to your input.

:)

funny thing about these models and this site


despite all of this consistency from the models the last few days, all it will take is one run of one model to either kill the system off or bring it into Florida as a weak system; then some will come in here and question the models and say this storm is being hyped lol

you know its coming, just preparing all of you for the inevitable

99 hours out system heading north towards the bahamas...
Quoting sarahjola:
what is going on at 14n 60 west? could the llc reform there? tia! i will assume that this is impossible since no one wants to touch it. lol
thanks!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

So, SFMR screwed up? lol
Well, I wouldn't say that. It is continuously calibrating and uses the on-board radar for corrections.

The boundaries of higher rainfall is simply where the data cannot be trusted and, sometimes, wild fluctuations can happen.

(Not to mention the notion of measuring winds of an outflow boundary near intense convection, not representative of sustained winds in a TC).
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, August 20th, with Video

Hi Levi.
I could not agree with this statement any more....it is definitely coming! lol

Quoting Hurricanes101:
funny thing about these models and this site


despite all of this consistency from the models the last few days, all it will take is one run of one model to either kill the system off or bring it into Florida as a weak system; then some will come in here and question the models and say this storm is being hyped lol

you know its coming, just preparing all of you for the inevitable
""

low shear across the basin
Quoting sarahjola:
what is going on at 14n 60 west? could the llc reform there? tia! i will assume that this is impossible since no one wants to touch it. lol
Go to Levi32's blog update. He explains it perfectly.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, I wouldn't say that. It is continuously calibrating and uses the on-board radar for corrections.

The boundaries of higher rainfall is simply where the data cannot be trusted and, sometimes, wild fluctuations can happen.

(Not to mention the notion of measuring winds of an outflow boundary near intense convection, not representative of sustained winds in a TC).

Hmm...interesting stuff.

108 hours system moves wnw along north cuba coast
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


might attract fat ants.


LOL - that is hilarious
stormwatcherci- i got an answer from someone. thanks!
Quoting Patrap:
TS Harvey almost looks to be nestling in a Annular Way in Place.



Almost reminds me Ratrap of a bit like Richard. Small compact system flexing his muscles just at the last minute.
4569. 7544
gfs fla again watch
Cloud tops warmed not-insignificantly, relative to a couple of hours ago:

NEW BLOG!
NEW BLOG!
Quoting weatherh98:
""

low shear across the basin


Yeah and it looks like the anti-cyclone that was displaced to the southeast of 97L yesterday has caught up to it as well. That should help it throw off the dry air and any heavier shear areas it may encounter as long as they move in tandem.
4574. robj144
Quoting atmoaggie:
Cloud tops warmed not-insignificantly, relative to a couple of hours ago:



Does non-insignificantly mean significantly? ;)
Do steroids attract Fat Ants?
Quoting KennyNebraska:
NEW BLOG!
new blog
4577. Patrap
I dont feel prepared..
Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:
Do steroids attract Fat Ants?
Ant-rage.
Quoting muddertracker:
Harvey just couldn't find his way into the gulf to bring Texas some rain....awesome...
Moving foreward we don't want a storm..too destructive...like I said...awesome...
maybe 97L slows down,missed the weakness and heads to texas....who knows?
i will continue the models on the new blog
4581. Brennen
Can someone tell me how to read this or where I can go to figure out how to read this?

Quoting Tazmanian:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1100Z
D. 15.8N 61.8W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 21/2300Z
D. 16.5N 65.00W
E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION
Change from 06 to 12 GFS:

6Z:


12Z:


588ht bridge to the north
Quoting Nolehead:
12Z GFS coming in Ivan-low with 97L into the Caribbean.

yep and dont like it whenever there that low...either track due west or in the gom..only time will tell.


I have no idea where you came uo with this. The 850mb vortex runn shows the circulation actually rather north in the islands coming in and barely missing puerto rico. Going thru the islands and exiting, hitting S. Florida. Just observing the model...run which is actually slightly north and east of the last run.
So far, pretty much the same run as the 06z. Maybe a little less intense? re gfs 12z
4585. emcf30
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think he means nice in a sarcastic way.

If that's what he meant, My Bad
Quoting Clearwater1:


That's what I was thinking. The GFS keeps it pretty strong, even after crossing Hispaniola, and Cuba. I know it takes that into account, but I just don't see it maintaining that strength depicted. Now, if it tracks just a little further west (or east) then heads north, a different ball game.


Im sure some will recall after Katrina crossed floridaand was a TS, How long did it take her to get really ramped up again? Of course crossing Florida is not the same as crossing Cuba,depending on speed and pool of hot water north of cuba????????????
""

Heavy storms in the strongest part, but we need to get a mid level circ to the surface
Now I'm just speculating, and mentally preparing, but if you watch the latest gfs run, (12z) and it verifies, where in the FL would one evacuate too?

Because, GFS has it come up the middle of the state, and even jogs over to catch far eastern pan handler's. A little something for everyone from the Islands to NYC and beyond. Wow!

Let's hope it does not pan out or hold it's intensity. Is that even possible?

But with this stated, it has to end up somewhere, and no one seems to be thinking an eleventh hour swing out to sea. Right?
Quoting P451:


It is a little difficult to ascertain a heading because of the ever growing size of the mid and upper levels. It's best to look at a long loop of the system to try to figure out if it's changing course.

Here's 30 hours (1 hour per frame) of 97L. Certainly a WNW motion seems evident but it has also expanded in size possibly causing a little trickery of the mind here.



The surface center had just become prominent around midnight last night - finally firing convection right next to it. That is what I might try to watch - the smaller blob within the larger scope - to figure on a direction.



Here, you can see it appears to just be a westerly heading. The center is located just east of the blob.

You can also see an outflow boundary head to the WSW in this loop indicating dry air is still being ingested.
West 275
4591. brianc
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Im sure some will recall after Katrina crossed floridaand was a TS, How long did it take her to get really ramped up again? Of course crossing Florida is not the same as crossing Cuba,depending on speed and pool of hot water north of cuba????????????


Katrina was actually intensifying as it crossed Miami-Dade county...I don't know if it ever lost strength while crossing Florida.
NEW BLOG!