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TD 7 Forms in the Eastern Atlantic; Likely to Become Tropical Storm Grace

By: Jeff Masters 3:46 PM GMT on September 05, 2015

Tropical Depression Seven spun into life on Saturday morning in the waters a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde islands in the Eastern Atlantic, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Grace by Sunday. TD 7 is under conditions which favor development: light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, warm ocean waters of 28.3°C (83°F), and a moist atmosphere. The farther south TD 7 stays during the coming week, the greater its chances of development, since a strong band of upper-level winds blowing from west to east will lie a few hundred miles to its north, at a latitude roughly even with Puerto Rico. The atmosphere is also drier to the north. The wave is headed nearly due west today, but will gradually assume more of a west-northwest track. The 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that by Wednesday, TD 7 should gain enough latitude to begin experiencing high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots and a much drier atmosphere. These conditions should act to weaken and possibly destroy TD 7 by the time it makes its closest pass by the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday night or Saturday. Penetration into the Caribbean will be difficult for the storm, as the high wind shear which has dominated the region all summer shows no signs of slackening during the coming ten days.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Depression Seven in the waters of the Eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde islands, taken at approximately 8:15 am EDT Saturday, September 5, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

Fred hanging on
Persistent Tropical Storm Fred continues to mill about in the waters of the Eastern Atlantic as a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. High wind shear will affect Fred through Monday, keeping the storm weak or possily killing it. However, Fred will encounter lower wind shear and anomalously warm waters of 27.5°C (82°F) by Tuesday, and come close to the Azores as a tropical storm on Thursday or Friday.


Figure 2. Hurricane Ignacio is about to get absorbed by an extratropical storm to its north, as seen by Aqua/MODIS on September 4, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

Pacific quieting down
Two tropical cyclones died today over the North Pacific, leaving two others spinning. We lost Hurricane Ignacio Saturday morning, as it got absorbed by a powerful extratropical storm midway between Hawaii and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. The remains of Ignacio may bring heavy rains to British Columbia on Wednesday. Tropical Storm Kevin, off the coast of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, also met its maker Saturday morning, when high wind shear of 35 knots tore away all of Kevin's heavy thunderstorms. Who's left? Well, in the Central Pacific, we still have weakening Category 1 Hurricane Jimena, with top sustained winds of 80 mph at 11 am EDT Saturday. Jimena will likely pass within 500 miles of Kauai in the Hawaiian Islands on Wednesday. However, high wind shear should weaken Jimena to a tropical depression by then, leaving heavy rains the main threat from the storm. Long-lived Category 1 Typhoon Kilo is now in its 16th day as a tropical cyclone, including a long spell as a major hurricane. Kilo is predicted to steadily re-intensify over the weekend, reaching Category 4 strength by Monday as it moves on a westward path that will likely take it several hundred miles north of Wake Island. Kilo is likely to be around until at least September 11, as it passes to the east of Japan.

An area of disturbed weather in the Northeast Pacific located about 550 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico (Invest 98E) is close to tropical depression status as it moves to the northwest at 5 - 10 mph, well offshore from Baja Mexico. This storm is expected to stay out to sea over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 90%.

Have a great Labor Day weekend!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

nic clean blog
Thank you Dr. Masters and have a WUnderful Labor Day weekend as well.
Thanks for the update Doc, this is looking to be an interesting storm to track. Though I'm not sure if it'll get past the area where Danny and Erika died before in the long run, it all depends on how conditions near the Caribbean are where this storm is.

Oh and, if memory serves...today is the 8th anniversary of the death of Felix over Nicaragua, which still remains the last category 5 hurricane to form in the Atlantic.
Practically zero shear where T.D 7 will be going during the next few days.A minimal hurricane isn't out of the question.
Thanks Doc. You have a great Labor Day weekend also!
Thanks, doc, have a nice weekend as well. We can only hope that future "Grace" will be graceful against Dominica and leave the island alone!

Dominica asks for aid after tropical storm Erika devastates island
The Guardian, Paul Crask in Giraudel, Friday 4 September 2015 16.48 BST
Tiny Caribbean country's prime minister is asking for international help after the storm caused damage that will cost half the country's annual GDP to repair ....

------------------------------------
Edit: I don't want to bore you any more with this giant hail storm in and around Naples/Italy this morning (see last blog), but I just came across this truly amazing video of super hail bombing the sea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=65&v=xIxXwpsdWuU
Quoting 6. barbamz:

Thanks, doc, have a nice weekend as well. We can only hope that future "Grace" will be graceful against Dominica and leave the island alone!

Dominica asks for aid after tropical storm Erika devastates island
The Guardian, Paul Crask in Giraudel, Friday 4 September 2015 16.48 BST
Tiny Caribbean country's prime minister is asking for international help after the storm caused damage that will cost half the country's annual GDP to repair ....


Erika will almost certainly be the second TS ever to be retired in the Atlantic after this. Damages ended up being over >200 million USD.
Thanks Doc

Quoting 4. washingtonian115:

Practically zero shear where T.D 7 will be going during the next few days.A minimal hurricane isn't out of the question.
That might make it go more North and miss the islands hopefully.
12z is a little more stronger with TD 7 so far.

12. JRRP
GFS a bit stronger on this run
Quoting 6. barbamz:

Thanks, doc, have a nice weekend as well. We can only hope that future "Grace" will be graceful against Dominica and leave the island alone!

Dominica asks for aid after tropical storm Erika devastates island
The Guardian, Paul Crask in Giraudel, Friday 4 September 2015 16.48 BST
Tiny Caribbean country's prime minister is asking for international help after the storm caused damage that will cost half the country's annual GDP to repair ....

Edit: I don't want to bore you any more with this giant hail storm in and around Naples/Italy this morning (see last blog), but I just came across this truly amazing video of super hail bombing the sea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=65&v=xIxXwpsd WuU



Wow just devastating. Half of the annual GDP in damages is mind boggling. And to think all that damage was done by one storm in one night... The power of nature is terrifying and just goes to show you how true the "it only takes one" statement is. I hope those in Dominica receive the help they need and will be able to recover from this.
3rd wettest August on record in Orlando and 7th wettest Summer on record for Sanford & Orlando with just over 30" during the JJA timeframe. Just crazy how wet it has been here in Central FL.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
252 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015


...AUGUST 2015 CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

AVERAGE PLACEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AUGUST
WAS AGAIN SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHS
PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND HELPED TO KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS
SUPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN PROVIDED A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW THAT OFTEN DELAYED OR PREVENTED THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FROM FORMING, AND ALLOWED A WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO
PERSIST IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW ALSO STEERED
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...LEADING TO RAINFALL TOTALS THAT VARIED BUT WERE GENERALLY
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.TEMPERATURES...
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL DURING AUGUST. HIGHS OFTEN REACHED THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND
AND EVEN SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE COAST, AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WAS EITHER DELAYED OR DID NOT FORM AT ALL DUE TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WAS OFTEN PRESENT.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ORLANDO WHICH HAD AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
EQUAL TO NORMAL...DAYTONA BEACH AND MELBOURNE WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AT 0.5 AND 0.3 DEGREES ABOVE, RESPECTIVELY. VERO BEACH WAS MOST NOTEABLY
WARM IN AUGUST, WITH AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. AUGUST 2015 WAS RANKED AS THE 5TH WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD FOR
VERO BEACH.

-ORLANDO RECEIVED 15.86 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS 8.73
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD
AT THIS LOCATION.



DAYTONA BEACH 7.52" 6.40" 1.12" 118%
(DAB)
ORLANDO 15.86" 7.13" 8.73" 222%
(MCO)

MELBOURNE 9.36" 7.68" 1.68" 122%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH 9.07" 7.03" 2.04" 129%
(VRB)
CLERMONT 8.32" 7.71" 0.61" 108%
(CLRF1)
LISBON 6.42" 7.14" -0.72" 90%
(LSBF1)
DELAND 9.91" 7.82" 2.09" 127%
(DELF1)
SANFORD 14.05" 8.32" 5.73" 169%
(SFNF1)

TITUSVILLE 7.04" 7.88" -0.84" 89%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE 5.08" 7.30" -2.22" 70%
(KFPR)
STUART 4.52" 8.69" -4.17" 52%

I think TD 7/PRE TS Grace will continue W with very very little WNW movement if any and I think it could impact the islands once again
I think it would impact the islands further S though so Northern Windwards Southern Leewards somewhere there about IMO but it's too early to say for sure

The main question is how strong will it get

And another thing there is another little system over W of Africa that could potentially develop any thoughts on what that one could do
Quoting 406. NCHurricane2009:

Some facts about the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season to date:

First Storm: Ana (formed on May 7, made landfall in North Carolina on Mother's Day but was weak)
Only Gulf of Mexico Storm: Bill (mid-June)
Strongest storm: Danny (category 3)
Longest lasting storm: Fred
First day to have two simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin: TODAY (September 5), as of 11 AM EDT....


Ana made landfall near Cherry Grove Beach, SC
The forecast models have been horrible this year in terms of intensity. I would not be shocked if TD 7 became a hurricane and maybe even a CAT 2 before weakening. That extra intensity above what is forecast can be all the difference between it dying out or hanging on until it gets to more favorable conditions

Erika did not run into has bad of conditions as Danny did, but Erika could never get her act together no matter the conditions. If Danny had the conditions Erika did, he could have survived as well.
Quoting 15. wunderkidcayman:And another thing there is another little system on W coast of Africa that could potentially develop any thoughts on what that one could do


Just this...
Quoting 18. Starhopper:



Just this...




i think he means forcast model runs lol
So I see we have more than one storm in the Atlantic for the first time this season.

Fred is still hanging in there and doing better than the predictions anticipated.

TD7 looks like a low runner...
deadly lightning flying around. to top that off i saw some pleasure boater just leaving the dock near kelly park a few moments ago. e cen fl. i remember one run of the gfs had Fred making it alot further west than the rest of the models . only model even close to what Fred has done.
Quoting 19. Tazmanian:




i think he means forcast model runs lol

whatever, and it's "Forecast".
Quoting 21. FunnelVortex:

So I see we have more than one storm in the Atlantic for the first time this season.

Fred is still hanging in there and doing better than the predictions anticipated.

TD7 looks like a low runner...
Yep..Which should keep it stronger longer....and cause the track to shift north a bit.....Greetings F.V.
Quoting 9. unknowncomic:

That might make it go more North and miss the islands hopefully.


Yeah, Dominica does not need any more rain right now.
There is a area of dsiturbed weather to the west of TD7. it appears that the systems are competing for energy. at the end of the day one of them will become the dominant one. just have to wait and see.
Quoting 25. hydrus:

Yep..Which should keep it stronger longer....and cause the track to shift north a bit.....Greetings F.V.


Greetings.

It makes me very worried about Dominica. They do not need any more rain right now, Tropical Cyclone or not.
spin just south of Fred and there another weak spin approaching the windwards
I remember Fran very well. We taped our storage building being destroyed by her. The doors blew off the the roof and all the stuff inside went everywhere. That was the 2nd hurricane of that year. The first was Bertha and then Fran in September. That was what got me interested in wunderground. I remember a guy named storm. Does anyone know what ever happened to him. I know there always seems to be way to much bickering and name calling on here so I just read most of the time, but I saw where someone wanted to know who else had went through Fran. I remember they kept saying that Fran was going into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina then ops, it came up just Cape Fear River.
Quoting 28. FunnelVortex:



Greetings.

It makes me very worried about Dominica. They do not need any more rain right now, Tropical Cyclone or not.
And there is more on the continent to move into the Atlantic. It could miss completely, or there could be more than one....I hope they are not hit.
Quoting 13. Envoirment:



Wow just devastating. Half of the annual GDP in damages is mind boggling. And to think all that damage was done by one storm in one night... The power of nature is terrifying and just goes to show you how true the "it only takes one" statement is. I hope those in Dominica receive the help they need and will be able to recover from this.


Not to mention that it doesn't take a pretty looking storm to do lots of devastation and Erika structurally was far from an organized storm yet still wreaked havoc.
Quoting 10. GTstormChaserCaleb:

12z is a little more stronger with TD 7 so far.


And far more north as well.
Rain starting here near SE FL coast. Expecting some fireworks from the sky today.
Quoting 31. hydrus:

And there is more on the continent to move into the Atlantic. It could miss completely, or there could be more than one....I hope they are not hit.


If they are hit I hope the heavy rain bands miss or pass over quickly. I'm not sure how fast TD7 is predicted to move.
TD7's Structure continues to improve. Should be able to throw up a CDO pretty soon.

Quoting 9. unknowncomic:

That might make it go more North and miss the islands hopefully.
If she goes beyond 19 north by day five, wind shear will be quite strong by then, and will likely destroy or weaken the storm/hurricane...., but in the deep tropics things can change quick, and also the "el Niño" behavior as well...
Quoting 36. ProgressivePulse:

TD7's Structure continues to improve. Should be able to throw up a CDO pretty soon.




I think it may be Grace by tonight. It has a very good spin and is in low shear.
Quoting 37. HuracanTaino:

If she goes beyond 19 north by day five, wind shear will be quite strong by then, and will likely destroy or weaken the storm/hurricane...., but in the deep tropics things can change quick, and also the "el Niño" behavior as well...


If the storm forms a good enough outflow it should fight off the shear.

Shear is more of a problem for weaker storms or systems trying to develop.
Quoting 14. StormTrackerScott:
3rd wettest August on record in Orlando and 7th wettest Summer on record for Sanford...


I had 9.8in here in Orange Park, have not had to use the hosepipe much this summer at all.
Quoting 38. FunnelVortex:



I think it may be Grace by tonight. It has a very good spin and is in low shear.


When you see the CDO, you'll see the upgrade, IMO.
Quoting 41. ProgressivePulse:



When you see the CDO, you'll see the upgrade, IMO.


I think a CDO may already be starting to develop. Just a few more hours...
Just had 1.02 in of rain here in Orange Park, rained cats and dogs !
Fantasy land (200hrs+) 12z GFS run shows future Grace surviving a long track over the east and central Atlantic while dodging the hostile Carribbean.



The high looks to be shoving her a little further west. Overall, a little bit more optimistic than previous runs now that a TD has formed.
Quoting 33. washingtonian115:

And far more north as well.
After the GFS weakens TD 7 as it approaches the islands, it restrengthens it near the Bahamas and turns it north between the East Coast and Bermuda, of course that's past 10 days, but if it goes north of the islands it would stand a better chance of surviving then on a crash course through the Caribbean wall of shear.
Quoting 44. Ricki13th:

Fantasy land (200hrs+) 12z GFS run shows future Grace surviving a long track over the east and central Atlantic while dodging the hostile Carribbean.



The high looks to be shoving her a little further west. Overall, a little bit more optimistic than previous runs now that a TD has formed.
She's going right into the Bahamas where the most favored conditions are but as many know we've been over his one to many times this season..
Quoting 6. barbamz:

Thanks, doc, have a nice weekend as well. We can only hope that future "Grace" will be graceful against Dominica and leave the island alone!

Dominica asks for aid after tropical storm Erika devastates island
The Guardian, Paul Crask in Giraudel, Friday 4 September 2015 16.48 BST
Tiny Caribbean country's prime minister is asking for international help after the storm caused damage that will cost half the country's annual GDP to repair ....

------------------------------------
Edit: I don't want to bore you any more with this giant hail storm in and around Naples/Italy this morning (see last blog), but I just came across this truly amazing video of super hail bombing the sea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=65&v=xIxXwpsdWuU

I wonder why that guy was out in his boat? Maybe a fisherman, I guess, but this is a good example of why you need a weather eye if you're going out in open water. It's the first time I've seen hail large enough that it looked like a warship was firing on him with a 20mm cannon - actually, a lot of 20mm cannons. :-)

Dominica has a long and tragic history of flash floods. There's a list of them here. Almost any tropical storm, or even a strong tropical wave, will set off flash floods due the the many rivers and very steep topography. Because the fall of the rivers is so steep, the channels have very little carrying capacity. With enough rain, they overflow their banks and cause widespread flooding. Combined with the pervasive landslides that accompany these storms, this will happen again. There have been flood control projects attempted, but it's nearly impossible to succeed given all the existing factors. Looking at a topographic map of Dominica, I don't know how a successful flood control project would work without taking up most of the arable land on the island. In addition, there are nine volcanoes, with one possibly becoming active again, and earthquakes. It's a beautiful island, but one with a dark history.

FWIW 12z GFS had much better initialization than on the 06z, probably accounts for why 07L makes it all the way north of the islands.

Not sold. We saw this with Erika. Not interested in whatever the GFS puts out beyond 96 hours.
I suspect the MDR will stay active for the rest of the month as the African wave train keeps on producing.
Quoting 45. GTstormChaserCaleb:

After the GFS weakens TD 7 as it approaches the islands, it restrengthens it near the Bahamas and turns it north between the East Coast and Bermuda, of course that's past 10 days, but if it goes north of the islands it would stand a better chance of surviving then on a crash course through the Caribbean wall of shear.

Here is the visual representation

She deepens over the warm waters of the Western Atlantic as she finally recurves near Bermuda. Interesting long tracking CV storm being depicted by the GFS.
Quoting 47. sar2401:

I wonder why that guy was out in his boat? Maybe a fisherman, I guess, but this is a good example of why you need a weather eye if you're going out in open water. It's the first time I've seen hail large enough that it looked like a warship was firing on him with a 20mm cannon - actually, a lot of 20mm cannons. :-)

Dominica has a long and tragic history of flash floods. There's a list of them here. Almost any tropical storm, or even a strong tropical wave, will set off flash floods due the the many rivers and very steep topography. Because the fall of the rivers is so steep, the channels have very little carrying capacity. With enough rain, they overflow their banks and cause widespread flooding. Combined with the pervasive landslides that accompany these storms, this will happen again. There have been flood control projects attempted, but it's nearly impossible to succeed given all the existing factors. Looking at a topographic map of Dominica, I don't know how a successful flood control project would work without taking up most of the arable land on the island. In addition, there are nine volcanoes, with one possibly becoming active again, and earthquakes. It's a beautiful island, but one with a dark history.




With all the rainwater that must be trapped within the island, the threat of a volcanic eruption is worrisome. Many bad things can happen if a volcano erupts with all that water trapped in the rocks. Including landslides, explosive eruptions, and possibly a good chunk of the island falling into the ocean setting off tsunamis.
Quoting 48. CybrTeddy:

FWIW 12z GFS had much better initialization than on the 06z, probably accounts for why 07L makes it all the way north of the islands.

Not sold. We saw this with Erika. Not interested in whatever the GFS puts out beyond 96 hours.


We saw this with Danny too. They all start off going too far north and then the storm ends up getting shredded in the Caribbean. It would benefit TD7 to strengthen greatly before the Lesser Antilles so it can gain enough latitude to avoid the Caribbean.
Quoting 52. Drakoen:



We saw this with Danny too. They all start off going too far north and then the storm ends up getting shredded in the Caribbean. It would benefit TD7 to strengthen greatly before the Lesser Antilles so it can gain enough latitude to avoid the Caribbean.


I don't even think that's enough. Danny went all the way to major hurricane status and it couldn't gain enough latitude to avoid the Caribbean (although it was also an extremely small hurricane).
Dropping like Flies, Thanks Dr. Masters....
Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:



I don't even think that's enough. Danny went all the way to major hurricane status and it couldn't gain enough latitude to avoid the Caribbean (although it was also an extremely small hurricane).


That's was part of the problem. Harder to feel the mid latitude trough if the cyclone is small at 500mb.
Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:



I don't even think that's enough. Danny went all the way to major hurricane status and it couldn't gain enough latitude to avoid the Caribbean (although it was also an extremely small hurricane).


Danny had the worst conditions of any of the storms that formed in the MDR this season. Danny did not really even make it to the Islands. Also Danny was a very small storm and weakened as quickly as it intensified. If TD 7 can become a well established hurricane and maintain that intensity before it hits the more unfavorable conditions, it will have a better chance to survive than any of the other storms before it this season.
Here in Lauderdale-by-the-Sea we are about to have a HUGE storm move in.
Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:



I don't even think that's enough. Danny went all the way to major hurricane status and it couldn't gain enough latitude to avoid the Caribbean (although it was also an extremely small hurricane).


The high was stronger I believe during Danny. So I think it'll be able to move further north than what Danny and Erika did. Especially as it's formed further north and east of what Danny did and much further east of where Erika formed.
Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:



I don't even think that's enough. Danny went all the way to major hurricane status and it couldn't gain enough latitude to avoid the Caribbean (although it was also an extremely small hurricane).


Danny was also a slow mover, it took him a week to get from 35W where I believe he first developed to 50W. If this system can strengthen to as least a minimal hurricane (80-90 mph) and attain the size of Erika, then it stands the best chance to bust through that TUTT cell. TD07 only has 72 hours or so to really intensify though.
Quoting 53. CybrTeddy:



I don't even think that's enough. Danny went all the way to major hurricane status and it couldn't gain enough latitude to avoid the Caribbean (although it was also an extremely small hurricane).
"Grace" should be a larger storm than Danny ever was.
GFS showing a trough coming in mid-September, I really think next week will possibly be the last time we see 90s for the summer.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Kilo heading for a second peak intensity... a little tough to estimate the current intensity, I'd say 90-100kts. Still a little ragged, but if it can tighten the core back up it could strengthen more. What a journey it's had. And as Dr. M said, another 5-6 days to go for it too, before it recurves and goes extratropical east of Japan. Remember when it was supposed to be a hurricane threat to Hawaii?

Quoting 61. Climate175:

GFS showing a trough coming in mid-September, I really think next week will be possibly be the last time we see 90s for the summer.

I wouldn't hold my breath, that is a mammoth trough lol which is typical for GFS to spring up far into its runs.
Quoting 62. MAweatherboy1:

Thanks Dr. Masters. Kilo heading for a second peak intensity... a little tough to estimate the current intensity, I'd say 90-100kts. Still a little ragged, but if it can tighten the core back up it could strengthen more. What a journey it's had. And as Dr. M said, another 5-6 days to go for it too, before it recurves and goes extratropical east of Japan. Remember when it was supposed to be a hurricane threat to Hawaii?




I'm still waiting for the day when there's a tropical cyclone that emerges off Africa, makes landfall in Central America, emerges into the Pacific and makes it all the way to the western Pacific as a Super Typhoon. That would be an ACE monster.
Quoting 63. Ricki13th:


I wouldn't hold my breath, that is a mammoth trough lol which is typical for GFS to spring up far into its runs.
We just have to wait and see how things evolve over the next week, and see how things go. GFS has been showing a trough coming consistently in it's runs, the strength is still to early to determine. I have a feeling next week will be the last week of 90 degree temps.
Quoting 64. CybrTeddy:



I'm still waiting for the day when there's a tropical cyclone that emerges off Africa, makes landfall in Central America, emerges into the Pacific and makes it all the way to the western Pacific as a Super Typhoon. That would be an ACE monster.


And then move into the Indian, goes up the Red Sea into the Mediterranean and back into the Atlantic to repeat the cycle all over again :P

Oh boy wouldn't that be a sight
Quoting 66. JrWeathermanFL:



And then move into the Indian, goes up the Red Sea into the Mediterranean and back into the Atlantic to repeat the cycle all over again :P

Oh boy wouldn't that be a sight


Well, an ATL-EPAC-CPAC-WPAC storm is at least somewhat feasible in an extremely unusual steering pattern lol.
Quoting 51. FunnelVortex:



With all the rainwater that must be trapped within the island, the threat of a volcanic eruption is worrisome. Many bad things can happen if a volcano erupts with all that water trapped in the rocks. Including landslides, explosive eruptions, and possibly a good chunk of the island falling into the ocean setting off tsunamis.
I'm not sure rainwater makes much difference in terms of a pyroclastic eruption. There hasn't been a major eruption in about 500 years, which is one of the reasons Dominica has such a large, intact rainforest. There's an area called the Valley of Desolation where several of the volcanoes are located, and there have been increasing earthquakes swarms and steam explosions in the area since the mid-90's. There's a general feeling among seismologists that Dominica is probably ripe for an eruption like the one on Montserrat that devastated that island. Between the floods, landslides, earthquakes, and volcanoes, I have no idea how you protect humans living there. From a risk management perspective, the best thing to do is evacuate the island. That's what ultimately happened in Montserrat, with two-thirds of the population evacuated as an emergency measure after pyroclastic flows destroyed Plymouth, the capital. Montserrat is a much smaller island though, with a pre-eruption population of 15,000 or so. Dominica has 72,000 by comparison.
Quoting 24. Starhopper:



This looks like a nasty little number.
Good job its not going the same way Fred did, still its about touching the cape Verde Islands with its top edge.

I see Fred is still wanting to back east. At this rate with Fred being at about 35 degrees north in 5 days time we could have a welcoming committee around the straights of Gibraltar.
Quoting 52. Drakoen:



We saw this with Danny too. They all start off going too far north and then the storm ends up getting shredded in the Caribbean. It would benefit TD7 to strengthen greatly before the Lesser Antilles so it can gain enough latitude to avoid the Caribbean.
Shear is practically zero in front of it right now with 83 degree water not to mention the structure of this wave is good.Something Erika never had.
After cleaning up the roads in Chilmark Ma. after Hurricane Bob I don't wish that(a Hurricane) on anyone, I just would love to see some ground swell from one out East of Bermuda. When Hurricane Bob went by us we had winds up to 125 mph. not much rain that spun around to the West of the center but it sure blew down a lot of trees, so there was very little time to get to surf.
The thing that impressed me was a video of the storm surge which a customer of mine had as it came around the headland in Aquinnah, it looked similar to the wave coming towards Japan only no where near as high, I would love to see that video again but do not know where the person has it at this point, unfortunately Chas MV
Quoting 7. CybrTeddy:



Erika will almost certainly be the second TS ever to be retired in the Atlantic after this. Damages ended up being over >200 million USD.
I don't understand how a nation's inability or unwillingness to prepare for the arrival of a TS makes the storm remarkable in any way. Erika was a run-of-the-mill tropical storm and the name should stay on the list in my opinion.
NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 18m
Environment 4-5 days out for TD Seven not conducive for strengthening. Weakening or even dissipation east of Lesser Antilles is possible.
Quoting 74. UrcaDeLima:

I don't understand how a nation's inability or unwillingness to prepare for the arrival of a TS makes the storm remarkable in any way. Erika was a run-of-the-mill tropical storm and the name should stay on the list in my opinion.


The flash flooding is what caused the deaths. I am not too sure if even watches and warnings would have prevented that from happening
Quoting 74. UrcaDeLima:

I don't understand how a nation's inability or unwillingness to prepare for the arrival of a TS makes the storm remarkable in any way. Erika was a run-of-the-mill tropical storm and the name should stay on the list in my opinion.
The government cancelled the T.S watch.So how can you blame the people? 10 inches falling in a few hours can be deadly even in the most well equipped countries (Does the Texas flood from earlier this year ring a bell?).Stop with the ignorance please and show some respect.
Quoting 77. washingtonian115:

The government cancelled the T.S watch.So how can you blame the people? 10 inches falling in a few hours can be deadly even in the most well equipped countries (Does the Texas flood from earlier this year ring a bell?).Stop with the ignorance please and show some respect.
We had a similar flooding event in the Tampa Bay area on August 3rd with some spots picking up close to 8 inches in a few hours, of course we are better equipped to handle these kinds of flooding with a better infrastructure and drainage ditches and canals, but it's really hard to prepare if you live in an area susceptible to flooding, especially on an island with a mountainous terrain like Dominica which often leads to mudslides, people have no where to go and they just have to ride it out and hope for the best. This just proves a point and that is some tropical storms are just as deadly and damaging as hurricanes and major hurricanes, as each system brings a different aspect of weather with them.
Quoting 71. Climate175:



Looking like it could be Grace by tonight...
81. SLU
Quoting 68. sar2401:

I'm not sure rainwater makes much difference in terms of a pyroclastic eruption. There hasn't been a major eruption in about 500 years, which is one of the reasons Dominica has such a large, intact rainforest. There's an area called the Valley of Desolation where several of the volcanoes are located, and there have been increasing earthquakes swarms and steam explosions in the area since the mid-90's. There's a general feeling among seismologists that Dominica is probably ripe for an eruption like the one on Montserrat that devastated that island. Between the floods, landslides, earthquakes, and volcanoes, I have no idea how you protect humans living there. From a risk management perspective, the best thing to do is evacuate the island. That's what ultimately happened in Montserrat, with two-thirds of the population evacuated as an emergency measure after pyroclastic flows destroyed Plymouth, the capital. Montserrat is a much smaller island though, with a pre-eruption population of 15,000 or so. Dominica has 72,000 by comparison.


Dominica is by far the most naturally beautifully of all the small Caribbean islands but perhaps one of the most dangerous to live on as we've seen.
Amazing Grace is here.

AL, 07, 2015090518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 257W, 35, 1007, TS,
Quoting 82. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Amazing Grace is here.

AL, 07, 2015090518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 257W, 35, 1007, TS,


7/2/1

really good for a Super El Nino. We are not done yet either. I see us getting 1 or 2 more CV storms and then 1 or 2 to develop closer to home after that. Could see 10 or 11 storms this season
Quoting 74. UrcaDeLima:

I don't understand how a nation's inability or unwillingness to prepare for the arrival of a TS makes the storm remarkable in any way. Erika was a run-of-the-mill tropical storm and the name should stay on the list in my opinion.


I didn't say Erika was remarkable. I got called out as a matter of fact for calling Erika a "garbage" TS, which it was in terms of organization. However, there is no category or a definition required for retirement. If Dominica requests retirement, which they probably will IMO, it'll be retired in the Spring of 2016. Another poorly organized storm was Allison in 2001, which was also retired due to the immense flooding it brought to Houston.
latest EURO.

12z ECMWF dissipates Grace within 48 hours.
Quoting 86. CybrTeddy:

12z ECMWF dissipates Grace within 48 hours.


forecast models were largely horrendous in terms of intensity with Danny and Erika
TD 15E?



Quoting 74. UrcaDeLima:

I don't understand how a nation's inability or unwillingness to prepare for the arrival of a TS makes the storm remarkable in any way. Erika was a run-of-the-mill tropical storm and the name should stay on the list in my opinion.

By this logic, Andrew, Katrina or Ike would still be in use today.
Quoting 89. gator23:


By this logic, Andrew, Katrina or Ike would still be in use today.

Huh? I don't agree with Urca's statement, but Andrew/Katrina/Ike were not run of the mill cyclones, and the U.S. was not unwilling/unable to prepare for them.
Looks like Grace is not wasting any time getting her act together.That could benifit her in the long range.
Hopefully Grace will give the northern island of the Caribbean some rain.
Quoting 74. UrcaDeLima:

I don't understand how a nation's inability or unwillingness to prepare for the arrival of a TS makes the storm remarkable in any way. Erika was a run-of-the-mill tropical storm and the name should stay on the list in my opinion.


I think you make a good point, but I don't think using governmental ineptitude as an exclusion criteria is [pick a word] fair, right, moral, ...compassionate.. IMO, the retirement is mostly in memorial and respect to those who lost life, although when entire communities, islands, or country's are devastated, the loss of WAY of life, and such also should be somehow recognized. My family has been in Florida since 1835, and we have not lost anyone to a cane, even at sea, so I have no reference and how that would feel. Here, many of us reflect that this storm is just like this storm back in... and we sometimes compare same names. I have no idea how the families that lost kin or friends in say Katrina would feel if we had another Katrina.. Would it be a good thing to trigger those memories? I dunno. I would retire on the side of compassion for those left behind.
This is interesting. A dust cyclone over Iraq

on the 1st of September.

Link
Quoting 87. Hurricanes101:



forecast models were largely horrendous in terms of intensity with Danny and Erika


Not to mention the Euro wasn't forecasting Grace to form. :p
Quoting 82. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Amazing Grace is here.

AL, 07, 2015090518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 257W, 35, 1007, TS,


She didn't take long to make an entrance. Welcome to that Grace Master Race! Lol
98. IDTH
Quoting 84. CybrTeddy:



I didn't say Erika was remarkable. I got called out as a matter of fact for calling Erika a "garbage" TS, which it was in terms of organization. However, there is no category or a definition required for retirement. If Dominica requests retirement, which they probably will IMO, it'll be retired in the Spring of 2016. Another poorly organized storm was Allison in 2001, which was also retired due to the immense flooding it brought to Houston.

Just goes to show you, don't judge a book by it's cover.
cmc. does not like 7?
Quoting 86. CybrTeddy:

12z ECMWF dissipates Grace within 48 hours.
WTH.
101. IDTH
I'm not going to rely a whole lot on the models with this system just yet, I want to see it really consolidate before I go with the models. TD 7 will be an interesting one to track.
Quoting 96. Envoirment:



Not to mention the Euro wasn't forecasting Grace to form. :p
Actually it was forecasting it to develop south of the Cape Verde Islands since Sept. 1st, but it has been killing it off in the Central Atlantic. We'll find out soon enough which models are handling Grace well and which model are not. One extreme the GFDL shows a hurricane, while the other extreme the EURO only shows a 1011 mb. low. This is nothing new, models are always at war with each other to see who comes out on top.

Quoting 99. islander101010:

cmc. does not like 7?
I'm sorry to say that model is a hot mess. It's going out party was Andrea 2 years ago, since then I can't recall a time it has accurately initialized a tropical system. Use that model in the winter time for mid-latitude cyclones, that's where it does best.
Quoting 94. indianrivguy:



I think you make a good point, but I don't think using governmental ineptitude as an exclusion criteria is [pick a word] fair, right, moral, ...compassionate.. IMO, the retirement is mostly in memorial and respect to those who lost life, although when entire communities, islands, or country's are devastated, the loss of WAY of life, and such also should be somehow recognized. My family has been in Florida since 1835, and we have not lost anyone to a cane, even at sea, so I have no reference and how that would feel. Here, many of us reflect that this storm is just like this storm back in... and we sometimes compare same names. I have no idea how the families that lost kin or friends in say Katrina would feel if we had another Katrina.. Would it be a good thing to trigger those memories? I dunno. I would retire on the side of compassion for those left behind.

Gordon in 1994 was not retired despite tremendous loss of life in Haiti, but that was mostly because Haiti didn't show up to the WMO convention
in General any request for retirement is met with agreement hurricane Klaus in 1990 killed 11 people and caused flooding in Martinique but had little damage reported with it. None-the-less it was retired by request of France. Its really up to Dominica if Erika retires
Grace will do what she wants. Have 4 days give or take to buck the models and watch her do her thing. As I said earlier, every storm has a different set of circumstances and some more resilient than others. Danny's problem was he was too small, Erika could never pull her circulations together to fend off the adversity. Grace could be different or not, we'll soon find out.
Another wave about to come off very soon. Looks good.


Edited: 'GRACE' looks good on satellite representation alone . Can't see this dissipating in 48 hours, despite what one model suggests...
Quoting 107. superpete:



07 looks good on satellite representation alone , possibly enough for T.S. status this evening. Can't see this dissipating in 48 hours, despite what one model suggests


We will have TS Grace at 5pm
Quoting 107. superpete:



07 looks good on satellite representation alone , possibly enough for T.S. status this evening. Can't see this dissipating in 48 hours, despite what one model suggests
Me neither, there is basically no SAL in front of it, and shear is very very low. Might get stronger than expected, Danny and Fred defied the odds, with Danny becoming a major hurricane, and Fred lasting longer than expected.
Data suggest TD 7 is now TS Grace

I suspect TS Grace will be up on 5pm advisory
We could end up with several more named storms than most people predicted this year.
Looks like SSD is in the process of moving 07 Grace to a new floater.
Looks like a lot of blue and green increasing for the wave about to come off soon.
No CDO yet but she seems to be surrounded by favorable winds and moisture to work with.

College Football season upon us, Storm to watch, Chicken grilling. Good day in the Neighborhood..
Let me guess here, all the models want to make 07/Grace another CV blunder?
Quoting 117. hurricanewatcher61:

Let me guess here, all the models want to make 07/Grace another CV blunder?


Define "blunder"
Quoting 102. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Actually it was forecasting it to develop south of the Cape Verde Islands since Sept. 1st, but it has been killing it off in the Central Atlantic.


I was mainly going off the NHC discussion:

This is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not
acknowledge the existence of a cyclone.

And it's been showing it on/off from what I can tell (September 4th 00z/12z drop development), so it's not being very consistent with it. Can't wait for the NHC's discussion at 5pm. :)
Quoting 110. wunderkidcayman:

Data suggest TD 7 is now TS Grace

I suspect TS Grace will be up on 5pm advisory
Quoting 117. hurricanewatcher61:

Let me guess here, all the models want to make 07/Grace another CV blunder?
Forecast it for us and we'll compare yours to the NHC's when the storm is thru.
Quoting 95. PlazaRed:

This is interesting. A dust cyclone over Iraq

on the 1st of September.

Link
cool must be a nightmare under it
...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 5
Location: 12.6°N 26.4°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
NHC keeps Grace as a Topical Storm through the five day forecast.
Quoting 123. pablosyn:

...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 5
Location: 12.6°N 26.4°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting 124. Sfloridacat5:

NHC keeps Grace as a Topical Storm through the five day forecast.


they did in the 11am advisory too
Quoting 124. Sfloridacat5:

NHC keeps Grace as a Topical Storm through the five day forecast.
I don't blame them at all for being cautious.Especially seeing what happened with Erika and the models don't seem to be excited about the storm with conditions becoming less ideal the closer it gets to the islands.
Just going by the model runs at this point. I know each storm is different, plus I always follow the NHC. I didn't say "ME" said Grace was going to be a blunder, the model runs are.
Quoting 121. PensacolaDoug:

Forecast it for us and we'll compare yours to the NHC's when the storm is thru.
Sep 5, 2014- Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly.
Sept 5, 2015- Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace.
It isn't even the peak just yet, that's next week.
Quoting 124. Sfloridacat5:

NHC keeps Grace as a Topical Storm through the five day forecast.


How could that be. I have little faith in there predictions anymore.
Quoting 104. all4hurricanes:


Gordon in 1994 was not retired despite tremendous loss of life in Haiti, but that was mostly because Haiti didn't show up to the WMO convention
in General any request for retirement is met with agreement hurricane Klaus in 1990 killed 11 people and caused flooding in Martinique but had little damage reported with it. None-the-less it was retired by request of France. Its really up to Dominica if Erika retires
Looking back, I believed Gordon was a storm that was serious enough to be retired..Excerpt..

ormed November 8, 1994
Dissipated November 23, 1994
(Extratropical after November 21, 1994)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 85 mph
Lowest pressure 980 mbar 28.94 inHg
Fatalities 1,149 direct, 3 indirect
Damage $594 million (1994 USD)
Areas affected Central America, Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Cuba, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, The Carolinas.

Hurricane Gordon was a long-lived and catastrophic late-season hurricane of the 1994 Atlantic hurricane season. The twelfth and final tropical cyclone of the season, Gordon formed in the southwestern Caribbean on November 8. Without strengthening, the storm made landfall on Nicaragua. Later on November 10, the storm began to strengthen as it tracked further from land, and it quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named storm that season. Gordon also made landfalls in Jamaica and Cuba while a minimal tropical storm. It entered the southwestern Atlantic while resembling a subtropical cyclone. By the time it entered the Gulf of Mexico, it was fully tropical again. Tropical Storm Gordon later crossed the Florida Keys, and turning to the northeast it made landfall in Fort Myers, Florida. Gordon strengthened after it re-entered the Atlantic Ocean, becoming a hurricane on November 17. It briefly threatened North Carolina while turning to the northwest, although it turned to the south and weakened. Gordon deteriorated into a tropical depression and struck Florida again at that intensity on November 20. It turned to the north and dissipated the next day over South Carolina.

Gordon first caused flooding in northern Costa Rica that destroyed 700 houses and caused $30 million in damage. There were six deaths in the country and an additional two deaths in neighboring Panama. Upon affecting Jamaica, the storm was responsible $11.8 million in damage and four deaths. Damage was heaviest in Haiti, after a prolonged southwesterly flow dropped 14 in (360 mm) of rainfall in a 24 hour period. The rains resulted in extensive mudslides and flooding that disrupted transportation and damaged 10,800 houses, with another 3,500 destroyed. There were 1,122 deaths in the country, partially due to deforested hills, and damage was estimated at $50 million. In neighboring Dominican Republic, there were five additional deaths, as well as flooding near its capital. In Cuba, Gordon caused $100 million in damage, and 5,906 houses were damaged or destroyed. Due to large-scale evacuations, there were only two deaths in the country. In Florida, the storm caused $400 million in damage (1994 USD, $636 million 2015 USD), much of it agricultural, and there were eleven deaths, eight of them direct. Gordon later affected North Carolina with high waves, causing beach erosion and destroying five houses. Overall damage was $594 million due to Gordon (1994 USD, $945 million 2015 USD).

Quoting 131. frank727:



How could that be. I have little faith in there predictions anymore.


The NHC did not screw up the forecasts, the forecast models did

The forecast models have been horrible this year with intensity and track, since the NHC does use the models as part of its guidance, their predictions would be off a bit too

They ALWAYS mentioned that both Danny and Erika had a difficult forecast and they left the door open for a different track and dissipation; which happened with both.

The NHC is the best in the business and I will go with what they say every time.
Quoting 122. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

cool must be a nightmare under it


Checking the at the movies at CIMSS this looks like it might be remnants as it went over Oman. Looks like it's currently the caboose of the wave train over Africa.

Quoting 78. GTstormChaserCaleb:

We had a similar flooding event in the Tampa Bay area on August 3rd with some spots picking up close to 8 inches in a few hours, of course we are better equipped to handle these kinds of flooding with a better infrastructure and drainage ditches and canals, but it's really hard to prepare if you live in an area susceptible to flooding, especially on an island with a mountainous terrain like Dominica which often leads to mudslides, people have no where to go and they just have to ride it out and hope for the best. This just proves a point and that is some tropical storms are just as deadly and damaging as hurricanes and major hurricanes, as each system brings a different aspect of weather with them.


One thing that's intriguing is that Dominica is apparently an extremely wet place, ranging anywhere from 100 inches in the driest areas of the island to over 300 inches in the wettest areas for average yearly rainfall. While the official known reports from Erika on Dominica were bad enough, none of the reports came from the remote highland jungles, which apparently are known for their extreme rainfall on the island. It's likely rainfall totals in the highlands were much heavier than the official reports, and the change in elevation is very quick there being that it's a small island.

It's no wonder that severe flooding is an issue there in light of learning more about the island. I would imagine given such a wet climate combined with quick elevation change, flash floods are probably really really common.
Excerpt from Fred Discussion

In addition, the NASA Global Hawk has been been sending live
photographs of the tight circulation of low clouds associated with
Fred from 60 thousand feet





Link
Poor Fred is dead.

He lost all of his convection and is currently under shear.

But the swirl looks nice though.

He looks like a remnant low, though
Quoting 124. Sfloridacat5:

NHC keeps Grace as a Topical Storm through the five day forecast.


Considering how bad the models have been this year, I would say expect the possibility of a Cat 1.
139. 882MB
Quoting 130. Climate175:

Sep 5, 2014- Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly.
Sept 5, 2015- Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace.
It isn't even the peak just yet, that's next week.


And more then half have been in the MDR.
Grace going down the same pipe as Danny and Erika...third time's the charm?
Also just noticed that damage from Tropical Storm Bill earlier this year has been estimated at $100 million+ in Texas and Oklahoma - Link
Quoting 139. 882MB:



And more then half have been in the MDR.
Yep, 3 in the Western Atlantic, and 4 in the Eastern Atlantic.
Quoting 140. win1gamegiantsplease:

Grace going down the same pipe as Danny and Erika...third time's the charm?


Don't jinx it
Okay, stupid question: What does MDR mean?
Quoting 133. Hurricanes101:



The NHC did not screw up the forecasts, the forecast models did

The forecast models have been horrible this year with intensity and track, since the NHC does use the models as part of its guidance, their predictions would be off a bit too

They ALWAYS mentioned that both Danny and Erika had a difficult forecast and they left the door open for a different track and dissipation; which happened with both.

The NHC is the best in the business and I will go with what they say every time.


Sounds like a lame excuse to blame the models. Why even have the NHC when as you stated they just follow computer models. I thought that the NHC had the best experts in the business. They have been wrong many of times because they take to much faith in models and no common sense anymore. It always comes down to money and human life takes a back seat. The ones programming these models are imputing the wrong data or maybe we they have other issues. Why can't a storm form in the Atlantic when we have 3 major Typhoons at once in the Pacific. This year they blame Nino what about the previous 3 years or more. Something is defiantly wrong with our climate and nothing makes sense anymore listening to these so called experts.
the spin downstream of grace is not bad suspect list
Quoting 144. FunnelVortex:

Okay, stupid question: What does MDR mean?
Major development region
Quoting 145. frank727:



Sounds like a lame excuse to blame the models. Why even have the NHC when as you stated they just follow computer models. I thought that the NHC had the best experts in the business. They have been wrong many of times because they take to much faith in models and no common sense anymore. It always comes down to money and human life takes a back seat. The ones programming these models are imputing the wrong data or maybe we they have other issues. Why can't a storm form in the Atlantic when we have 3 major Typhoons at once in the Pacific. This year they blame Nino what about the previous 3 years or more. Something is defiantly wrong with our climate and nothing makes sense anymore listening to these so called experts.


2013: The SAL was on steroids.

2014: Saw a US hurricane landfall despite being below normal

2015: El Ninio
TS Grace makes the official numbers now 7/2/1 (TS/HR/MH) not too shabby so far... if I say so myself. My final numbers for this season which is kinda late, but I have 12/5/2 to wrap up this season. Here is how I personally seeing things go down: I can see 5 more storms forming partly due to the wave train and some late season mischief in the Gulf/NW Carribbean. I'm a little bullish but I believe 3 of the next 5 which also includes Grace could attain minimal hurricane status if they find a favorable pocket of shear & dry air. But I'm almost sure we will see no real long tracking CV hurricane(s) this year.

Finally of the next 3 canes I have one rapidly intensifying to at least a 115 mph cat. 3 (similar to Danny) IMHO. Waters have warmed nicely over the summer especially over the MDR. And since day one the warm untapped waters of the Gulf/Carribbean could easily spin up some homegrown trouble as more front start coming down later. Overall, I see this year like a toned down 2004 season with a very active season setting up shop next year.
Quoting 145. frank727:



Sounds like a lame excuse to blame the models. Why even have the NHC when as you stated they just follow computer models. I thought that the NHC had the best experts in the business. They have been wrong many of times because they take to much faith in models and no common sense anymore. It always comes down to money and human life takes a back seat. The ones programming these models are imputing the wrong data or maybe we they have other issues. Why can't a storm form in the Atlantic when we have 3 major Typhoons at once in the Pacific. This year they blame Nino what about the previous 3 years or more. Something is defiantly wrong with our climate and nothing makes sense anymore listening to these so called experts.


Think you can do better? Go ahead and take millions of peoples lives in your hand in the most difficult of sciences to predict that there is

Go ahead
Current model run turns Grace into an INSANE extratropical storm (shown here hitting Newfoundland)



Quoting 135. Jedkins01:



One thing that's intriguing is that Dominica is apparently an extremely wet place, ranging anywhere from 100 inches in the driest areas of the island to over 300 inches in the wettest areas for average yearly rainfall. While the official known reports from Erika on Dominica were bad enough, none of the reports came from the remote highland jungles, which apparently are known for their extreme rainfall on the island. It's likely rainfall totals in the highlands were much heavier than the official reports, and the change in elevation is very quick there being that it's a small island.

It's no wonder that severe flooding is an issue there in light of learning more about the island. I would imagine given such a wet climate combined with quick elevation change, flash floods are probably really really common.


One of our bloggers on the northeast coast DID measure the rainfall. NatureIsle? said he got 18.5 inches and I wouldn't be surprised if it were more higher toward the peaks.

I don't think the island is going to blow up anytime soon, in fact that active volcanic region is where they are either building or planning to build a geothermal plant to tap its heat for energy. If the world turns to a hydrogen economy, like Iceland Dominica could become a net exporter of energy and become a relatively wealthy nation... until then don't look for our little island to evacuate itself any time soon.

Retiring the name, who cares. Last I heard they were still looking for bodies and digging out houses.
153. 882MB
Quoting 144. FunnelVortex:

Okay, stupid question: What does MDR mean?


Main Development Region.
94 degrees with 59% humidity in the shade here just S.E. of Fort Myers.
Quoting 144. FunnelVortex:

Okay, stupid question: What does MDR mean?

Main Development Region
will soon be time of year to start looking at home grown systems and systems breaking off of cut off lows.
For a season that was supposed to be "boring", we have been tracking a storm every day since August 18th. Not bad
158. Wrass
Come on everyone!! How many models needed!!!!! None of them worth a blank . 5 years from now we'll have 128 of em. Won't even be able to see !!!! On the chart..! The state of Florida... Please use the John Hope rule... Easy junk to figure out on u own. Highs and lows.. Fit in between DA!!!!!
lol, I can hear Erika loud and clear in this excerpt

The
new track forecast is faster than the previous one, especially at
the extended range, and on the south side of guidance envelope in
best agreement with the FSU Superensemble and ECMWF model solution.
This makes intuitive sense, since a weaker system would likely track
farther south and move faster.
Quoting 156. will45:

will soon be time of year to start looking at home grown systems and systems breaking off of cut off lows.


I was kinda thinking we were going to see that with Erika's remnants after it exited off the coast north of Jax. That area tends to spin them off—usually earlier in the season, no?
Quoting 137. FunnelVortex:

Poor Fred is dead.

He lost all of his convection and is currently under shear.

But the swirl looks nice though.

He looks like a remnant low, though



I think it's time that the remnants of Karen get retired, Fred will take the reigns now.
Quoting 160. rxse7en:



I was kinda thinking we were going to see that with Erika's remnants after it exited off the coast north of Jax. That area tends to spin them off—usually earlier in the season, no?



well that area is the perfect spot with the gulf stream with the warm waters
Quoting 157. Hurricanes101:

For a season that was supposed to be "boring", we have been tracking a storm every day since August 18th. Not bad


The blog is tracking remnants this season, even.
I got to say this, that this season will go down as the season which wash supposed to be the worst season ever for only 6-8 names. My saying is you never know what Mother Nature can bring to any year even an El Nio type. So hopefully this season is a learning lesson to some about predicting early will get you no where just ask these crazy models that
Looks like maybe four was lost in Oman from that flooding, and alot of shop merchandise. Water got 2 meters deep in some shops.
Quoting 121. PensacolaDoug:

Forecast it for us and we'll compare yours to the NHC's when the storm is thru.
This is a very good comment..Thank you Doug.
Quoting 164. bigwes6844:

I got to say this, that this season will go down as the season which wash supposed to be the worst season ever for only 6-8 names. My saying is you never know what Mother Nature can bring to any year even an El Niño type. So hopefully this season is a learning lesson to some about predicting early will get you know where just ask these crazy models that


The storms this year have been very determined fighters so far.

They seem to be fighting off shear and dry air for as long as they possibly can.
Just tells me that there are most likely other things at work that are changing the "What Was" to "What Will Be"
Quoting 167. FunnelVortex:



The storms this year have been very determined fighters so far.

They seem to be fighting off shear and dry air for as long as they possibly can.
I'll tell ya this if this was 2016 we would see tons of majors this year
Quoting 169. bigwes6844:

I'll tell ya this if this was 2016 we would see tons of majors this year


That's why we have to keep an eye on the current pattern, to see if it continues into next year
171. Wrass
Hey guys !! Any coment. Offshore capt . Sw fla.. How do I get home. 50 miles offshore. No anvils no 55000 ft towers. What happen !! Haven'tseen one in 10 years only mushroom rollout outs.!!
“Everything I was Dreaming of is Gone” — How Climate Change is Spurring a Global Refugee Crisis to Rapidly Worsen

Over the past two weeks, news of the plight of a swelling wave of refugees fleeing to Europe has filled the mainstream media. We looked on in horror at reports of innocent human beings fleeing destabilized countries in the Middle East, of people suffocating while stuffed into the backs of trucks, of drowned children washed up on the shores of nations their families had hoped would care for them.

It’s all a part of a growing global mass migration. A tragic dislocation and diaspora. But this time it’s not only birds, or polar bears, or fish, or walruses, or insects, or plants that are being forced to move by habitat and food loss, by toxified environments or by increasingly dangerous weather. It’s human beings too.


Link

1.6M Central American, Caribbean Campesinos Hit by Drought

The region’s agricultural ministers met in El Salvador and declared an agricultural alert to deal with the crisis.

Over 1.6 million Central American and Caribbean campesinos and their families have been seriously affected by a severe drought caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon, prompting officials of the region’s countries to declare an agricultural alert Thursday.

In Guatemala alone, according to a recent report, some 1 million people are starving due to the drought and the crops it has destroyed. In Honduras, 10 municipalities are now officially experiencing famine. Meanwhile, in Puerto Rico, hundreds of thousands of households in the capital San Juan and along the country’s north coast have had their water use restricted to two days a week.


Link

I have a question, how high does Trump's Wall have to be to stop all this ?
Quoting 171. Wrass:

Hey guys !! Any coment. Offshore capt . Sw fla.. How do I get home. 50 miles offshore. No anvils no 55000 ft towers. What happen !! Haven'tseen one in 10 years only mushroom rollout outs.!!


None of those are heading to the coast, all clear to 20+ miles inland
175. IDTH
Quoting 157. Hurricanes101:

For a season that was supposed to be "boring", we have been tracking a storm every day since August 18th. Not bad

Agree, I worry though, if this ended up being a la nina or even neutral season with just how these storms have been fighting and the really defined waves off Africa, this could've been really bad (forgot to mention how the Carribean is the death of all cyclones right now). The one thing is, it only takes one, and 2015 has been a year of storms that just don't give up.
Quoting 145. frank727:



Sounds like a lame excuse to blame the models. Why even have the NHC when as you stated they just follow computer models. I thought that the NHC had the best experts in the business. They have been wrong many of times because they take to much faith in models and no common sense anymore. It always comes down to money and human life takes a back seat. The ones programming these models are imputing the wrong data or maybe we they have other issues. Why can't a storm form in the Atlantic when we have 3 major Typhoons at once in the Pacific. This year they blame Nino what about the previous 3 years or more. Something is defiantly wrong with our climate and nothing makes sense anymore listening to these so called experts.


Alright, well get back to me when you get promoted as a forecaster at the NHC.

Thanks.
Quoting 171. Wrass:

Hey guys !! Any coment. Offshore capt . Sw fla.. How do I get home. 50 miles offshore. No anvils no 55000 ft towers. What happen !! Haven'tseen one in 10 years only mushroom rollout outs.!!


Not a lot of action today, but a few towers in view from the Naples Harbor.
Heading east. I feel that you may be commenting on the fact that it's getting harder to navigate around storms though.

Should be pretty smooth cruising out in the GOM. Most of the buoys are reporting around 1' waves on average. Even offshore Florida's east coast in the Atlantic it's relatively calm right now.
But this isn't too unusual for the Summer.
Quoting 178. ProgressivePulse:

Heading east. I feel that you may be commenting on the fact that it's getting harder to navigate around storms though.

_____________________________________

Yeah, he's probably used to big T storms rolling offshore into the GOM in the late afternoon.
181. Wrass
Like I said .. No Anvils .. No towers... No flat tops.. None for 10 years gone... Just roll out mushrooms.! Grother any back up on this. I do know weather south fl my whole life. It's easy for me.
Quoting 181. Wrass:

Like I said .. No Anvils .. No towers... No flat tops.. None for 10 years gone... Just roll out mushrooms.! Grother any back up on this. I do know weather south fl my whole life. It's easy for me.


Usually see them every afternoon out my window. ahaha
If I wasn't so lazy I'd go outside and take some pictures. Some nice towering cumulous just south of my location right now.
Quoting 80. Gearsts:




Sorry for my inadequacies but I am not sure how to interpret these diagrams for ENSO. I know it dipicting ocean temperatures at certain depths and latitudes, but i'm not sure in more detail than that. Can anyone let me know? Thanks in advance!
As someone working towards a History doctorate, I'd raise a few flags about the blog post placing climate change at the centre of the current crises. Extreme weather certainly occurred and it had significant effects on the crucial markets in the Arab world. But... it remains the case that the long-term drought, Russian heatwave and food spike occurred in 2010 - the European migrant crisis has only developed in 2014 at the earliest, now 2015 in its clearest, most uncontrolled form. Five years is a long time, more so in political developments than drought relief.

Climate change is an overall contributing factor but if we are to actually explain the decision of millions of individual people fleeing the Middle East, I'd wager that it has little to do with their judgement of the recent extreme climate and everything to do with the wars and instability in the region. Those wars and instability aren't continuing because of extreme climate change in the region but rather because of entrenched political divisions that could have been resolved in 2011, but weren't. I think that historians should always account for the impact of climate, droughts and major weather events when discussing the past, but they shouldn't be taken as the sole determining factor - I can't think of any event in which climate has actually played a key role. For example, an effective, popular government could have struggled through the Syrian drought; the Russian regime did so after all, distasteful as its current government certainly is to many. Russia coped with its extreme climate crisis without a breakdown in government nor a rush of migrants to Europe; so climate change cannot be the decisive historical factor. Overplaying its role in momentous events like this leads only to scepticism IMO.

I'd normally have some juicy weather, now from Slovakia where I'm based to lighten this up, but there's not much happening here. Around 20C by day, 8-10C by night with little rain for the next ten days. Ideal late summer weather for me, but boring weather for the blog.
185. Wrass
Hang on I'm not done. 40 miles Sw of naples example. And fact. 2 pm head north east. Put on Poloride sun glasses. Look east build up over glades . Got it 4 pm anvils flat tops my whole life. Totally gone. Grother don't live Sw fl don't know ;;;;(( anybody Sw fla see this over 45 years old. U young pups won't reconize
Stronger:

18z GFS shows Grace degenerating before reaching the islands after nearing hurricane intensity on Monday. It also shows a hurricane behind Grace.

188. Wrass
Show pic date it prove it. Etc etc etc... Show me Tower Sw fla Anvil. Flat top 530000 ft. Anybody last ten years . Any tower flat top doesn't matter how many feet.
Quoting 183. Trouper415:



Sorry for my inadequacies but I am not sure how to interpret these diagrams for ENSO. I know it dipicting ocean temperatures at certain depths and latitudes, but i'm not sure in more detail than that. Can anyone let me know? Thanks in advance!

Some of these maps can get a bit confusing. For this one, imagine you are looking at a cross section of the equator in the Pacific. Left and Right is east and west, denoted by the longitude on the x axis. Up and down is depth, with the top being the surface of the ocean. The colors are different ocean anomalies at different positions of ocean depth and longitude at the equator. You are looking at a slice of the ocean cut from the equator from the side essentially.


Shear is quite low for now all the way to the Lesser Antilles
I see that Grace has now officially slipped into the Atlantic picture

192. Wrass
Ok one more time.. The build up over the glades. Got it the glades no were else.. Anvils flat tops 50000 ft etc totally gone . 10 years now. Hello anybody want to prove me wrong.. Prove it..!! All I see is mushrooms.. No anvils like a long time ago..
Quoting 187. TropicalAnalystwx13:

18z GFS shows Grace degenerating before reaching the islands after nearing hurricane intensity on Monday. It also shows a hurricane behind Grace.




So basically it is going to "pull a Danny"?
Quoting 184. westscotweather:

As someone working towards a History doctorate, I'd raise a few flags about the blog post placing climate change at the centre of the current crises. Extreme weather certainly occurred and it had significant effects on the crucial markets in the Arab world. But... it remains the case that the long-term drought, Russian heatwave and food spike occurred in 2010 - the European migrant crisis has only developed in 2014 at the earliest, now 2015 in its clearest, most uncontrolled form. Five years is a long time, more so in political developments than drought relief.

Climate change is an overall contributing factor but if we are to actually explain the decision of millions of individual people fleeing the Middle East, I'd wager that it has little to do with their judgement of the recent extreme climate and everything to do with the wars and instability in the region. Those wars and instability aren't continuing because of extreme climate change in the region but rather because of entrenched political divisions that could have been resolved in 2011, but weren't. I think that historians should always account for the impact of climate, droughts and major weather events when discussing the past, but they shouldn't be taken as the sole determining factor - I can't think of any event in which climate has actually played a key role. For example, an effective, popular government could have struggled through the Syrian drought; the Russian regime did so after all, distasteful as its current government certainly is to many. Russia coped with its extreme climate crisis without a breakdown in government nor a rush of migrants to Europe; so climate change cannot be the decisive historical factor. Overplaying its role in momentous events like this leads only to scepticism IMO.

I'd normally have some juicy weather, now from Slovakia where I'm based to lighten this up, but there's not much happening here. Around 20C by day, 8-10C by night with little rain for the next ten days. Ideal late summer weather for me, but boring weather for the blog.


True on it's face. But in Syria, the historic drought sent hundreds of thousands to big cities and set the stage for the uprising. Syria wasn't prepared for any adequate response. So climate impact and anti-government sentiment led to the uprising, Syrian government became a suppressor and monster as opposed to the answer. Yet had it not been for the historic drought, this outcome would not likely have happened. So it can be argued from either side. Geopolitical failure starting with the US at the head has led to now more refugees than at the height of WWII. It's a worldwide failure. AGW is not why this has happened, I would never argue that. But arguing that's where the spark was that led to the Syrian conflict can be argued. It will remain true moving forward that AGW will lead to geopolitical upheaval. Climate will never dictate government responses to social issues, but it will dictate why those responses are needed in the first place. Syria must be put in the perspective of the Arab Spring as a whole. Sentiment for change was there long before the drought that fed action on such sentiments. Drought was the flame that started the fire. It's a complicated world headed quickly in the wrong direction. In Syria, which affects everything that's happened in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and everywhere else around the Middle East; things may not look like this at all had it not been for Syria's historic drought.
195. Wrass
Quoting 180. Sfloridacat5:

196. Wrass
No
Quoting 188. Wrass:

Show pic date it prove it. Etc etc etc... Show me Tower Sw fla Anvil. Flat top 530000 ft. Anybody last ten years . Any tower flat top doesn't matter how many feet.


Question: Why does this matter to you so much?
18z suite coming in stronger, like Cody said I wouldn't be surprised if Grace attained hurricane strength before weakening near or north of the islands, after that it is just too far out to really know.

Quoting 192. Wrass:

Ok one more time.. The build up over the glades. Got it the glades no were else.. Anvils flat tops 50000 ft etc totally gone . 10 years now. Hello anybody want to prove me wrong.. Prove it..!! All I see is mushrooms.. No anvils like a long time ago..
There are literally hundreds of photos on the net of towering cumulus and anvil head thunderstorms over the Everglades. This is just one of them. Nothing has changed over the past ten years. If it had, you can be sure other people would have noticed it.

Grace, and the next tropical wave about to come off, 18z GFS shows it developing.
looks like someone doesn't know how to watch their language on the blog...
Quoting 189. wilsongti45:


Some of these maps can get a bit confusing. For this one, imagine you are looking at a cross section of the equator in the Pacific. Left and Right is east and west, denoted by the longitude on the x axis. Up and down is depth, with the top being the surface of the ocean. The colors are different ocean anomalies at different positions of ocean depth and longitude at the equator. You are looking at a slice of the ocean cut from the equator from the side essentially.
That's an excellent explanation. Thanks.
Yellow X may be coming soon.
Quoting 205. Climate175:

Yellow X may be coming soon.


Yellow X for which disturbance?
Quoting 206. FunnelVortex:



Yellow X for which disturbance?
The one about to come off Africa.
208. Wrass
Date it. Prove it by date no anvils nice pic however ok.
Quoting 207. Climate175:

The one about to come off Africa.


Which name is next on the list?
Quoting 209. FunnelVortex:



Which name is next on the list?
Henri.
211. Wrass
Nice build up !! No anvil. Hey guys not trying to wear u out. But show me. Respect for all of u ok. I follow u guys all the time. Captain AL ..!

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 05 SEP 2015 Time : 224500 UTC Lat : 12:39:36 N Lon : 26:47:14 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.9 /1007.4mb/ 43.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.9 2.8 2.9 Center Temp : -14.0C Cloud Region Temp : -26.6C Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO* Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 30km - Environmental MSLP : 1015mb Satellite Name : MSG3 Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.3 degrees
Quoting 209. FunnelVortex:



Which name is next on the list?
Homer.
I'm sorry but I would almost laugh if a Hurricane Homer hit somewhere bad.... just the name. I wouldn't be able to take it seriously, I would giggle putting boards up.
215. flsky
What did you copy this from?

Quoting 212. HurricaneAndre:


UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 05 SEP 2015 Time : 224500 UTC Lat : 12:39:36 N Lon : 26:47:14 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.9 /1007.4mb/ 43.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.9 2.8 2.9 Center Temp : -14.0C Cloud Region Temp : -26.6C Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO* Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 30km - Environmental MSLP : 1015mb Satellite Name : MSG3 Satellite Viewing Angle : 34.3 degrees
Quoting 213. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Homer.


But NHC says it's Henri :/ darn
Quoting 192. Wrass:

Ok one more time.. The build up over the glades. Got it the glades no were else.. Anvils flat tops 50000 ft etc totally gone . 10 years now. Hello anybody want to prove me wrong.. Prove it..!! All I see is mushrooms.. No anvils like a long time ago..


They happen all the time, no big deal.
Quoting 214. George1938:

I'm sorry but I would almost laugh if a Hurricane Homer hit somewhere bad.... just the name. I wouldn't be able to take it seriously, I would giggle putting boards up.
lol. And then you would loose power and have $1000's of dollars in damage hahaha so funny :)
Quoting 205. Climate175:

Yellow X may be coming soon.
My computer slows down when you post these pictures.
Quoting 211. Wrass:

Nice build up !! No anvil. Hey guys not trying to wear u out. But show me. Respect for all of u ok. I follow u guys all the time. Captain AL ..!
you'll learn quick, to not let them get you upset, I sometimes get hate because im only in 9th grade and I am inexperienced, but I always try to prove myself as a knowledgeable person in weather. And I believe that I am more knowledgeable than many people on here. But I don't let them get to me, and also don't curse you get banned easily :)
If it keeps raining here in Fort Laud. we will be out of this drought in no time.
Quoting 218. Camerooski:

lol. And then you would loose power and have $1000's of dollars in damage hahaha so funny :)

.....the simpsons.......
Quoting 211. Wrass:

Nice build up !! No anvil. Hey guys not trying to wear u out. But show me. Respect for all of u ok. I follow u guys all the time. Captain AL ..!
Are you referring to the picture I posted? It would really help if you used the quote feature here so I'd know this. The last buildup on the right is a classic anvil head thunderstorm taken in 2010. I'm beginning to wonder if you know what you're looking at. You seem to have a burr under your saddle about this. I don't know why, but we have hundreds of members from Florida who see the sky over the Everglades regularly. Why do you think you're the only one who's noticed this change?
224. FOREX
Quoting 172. ColoradoBob1:

“Everything I was Dreaming of is Gone” — How Climate Change is Spurring a Global Refugee Crisis to Rapidly Worsen

Over the past two weeks, news of the plight of a swelling wave of refugees fleeing to Europe has filled the mainstream media. We looked on in horror at reports of innocent human beings fleeing destabilized countries in the Middle East, of people suffocating while stuffed into the backs of trucks, of drowned children washed up on the shores of nations their families had hoped would care for them.

It’s all a part of a growing global mass migration. A tragic dislocation and diaspora. But this time it’s not only birds, or polar bears, or fish, or walruses, or insects, or plants that are being forced to move by habitat and food loss, by toxified environments or by increasingly dangerous weather. It’s human beings too.


Link

1.6M Central American, Caribbean Campesinos Hit by Drought

The region’s agricultural ministers met in El Salvador and declared an agricultural alert to deal with the crisis.

Over 1.6 million Central American and Caribbean campesinos and their families have been seriously affected by a severe drought caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon, prompting officials of the region’s countries to declare an agricultural alert Thursday.

In Guatemala alone, according to a recent report, some 1 million people are starving due to the drought and the crops it has destroyed. In Honduras, 10 municipalities are now officially experiencing famine. Meanwhile, in Puerto Rico, hundreds of thousands of households in the capital San Juan and along the country’s north coast have had their water use restricted to two days a week.


Link

I have a question, how high does Trump's Wall have to be to stop all this ?
Reported.
Quoting 221. Camerooski:

If it keeps raining here in Fort Laud. we will be out of this drought in no time.



There's still a big deficit to overcome, but things are headed in the right direction that's for sure. Just saw the airport picked up nearly 3 inches yesterday. Average yearly rain in Ft. Lauderdale is 66 inches, so it was inevitable heavy downpours would return with frequency at some point. Hopefully you guys will have a wet September, and hopefully the winter will have enhanced rainfall from El Nino.
Looks like someone is racing for the banhammer...
228. beell
Quoting 223. sar2401:

Are you referring to the picture I posted? It would really help if you used the quote feature here so I'd know this. The last buildup on the right is a classic anvil head thunderstorm taken in 2010. I'm beginning to wonder if you know what you're looking at. You seem to have a burr under your saddle about this. I don't know why, but we have hundreds of members from Florida who see the sky over the Everglades regularly. Why do you think you're the only one who's noticed this change?


Poor example of an anvil @ 199
:)



229. Wrass
Beele not even close. Just regular build up up. Over glades aka land summer time stuff south fla ok.!!
Quoting 213. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Homer.

LOL, who wuz it that had the Homer Simpson DefCon Chart
Quoting 198. GTstormChaserCaleb:

18z suite coming in stronger, like Cody said I wouldn't be surprised if Grace attained hurricane strength before weakening near or north of the islands, after that it is just too far out to really know.


The issue down the road for Grace is the huge trough the NHC mentioned. It has been enchanting the westerlies for the last week or so, and it's one of the reasons Fred has weakened. As Fred moves further north, it will get out from under those westerlies and have a chance to intensify before the colder water helps to kill it. You can see the trough clearly in the water vapor picture stretching from out of the frame to the NE all the way into the Gulf. Also visible is a big area of dry air ahead of Grace, just coming into the picture on the right. The dry air is probably more extensive than what's shown since a lot of it is at the mid levels. Grace will be in good conditions to intensify for the next couple of days because it will be in the ITCZ moisture belt. As soon as the storm starts to move away from the ICTZ the dry air and shear is going to attack, just as we've seen with all the MDR storms this season. I see no reason Grace is going to change that pattern. If anything, Grace is going to be in somewhat worse conditions than we saw with Erika.

Quoting 228. beell:



Poor example of an anvil @ 199
:)




Except I somehow doubt that's over the Everglades. :-)
Quoting 219. washingtonian115:

My computer slows down when you post these pictures.
Oh oops, sorry Washi.
234. beell
Quoting 232. sar2401:

Except I somehow doubt that's over the Everglades. :-)


No doubt. But it is an anvil. Yours was not.
Ha!
:)
Quoting 229. Wrass:

Beele not even close. Just regular build up up. Over glades aka land summer time stuff south fla ok.!!

Yes. We got it the first time you said it. And the second. And the third. And the fourth. And the fifth.
Quoting 224. FOREX:

Reported.
Please, don't quote an entire post if you're going to report it. It gets more than a little irritating having to read things from people I have on ignore because others feel a need to quote their entire post.
Quoting 234. beell:



No doubt. But it is an anvil. Yours was not.
Ha!
:)
Says you. What I want to know is the mechanism that could only affect the Everglades while I still see anvil head thunderstorms here all the time. I suspect ethanol consumption. :-)
Didn't mean to cause anybody's computer to slow down.
Quoting 237. Wrass:
OK, on the list you go.
Good evening all. I see that Grace has graced us with her (its)..... actually I prefer "her" presence. Only God knows what this one will do. Danny and Erika surprised a lot of people, and of course the the Met office got a good beating; but then again, who could have known what was to be? We're just mere humans trying to get into the "mind" of something no one will ever fully understand. Dominica, you're not forgotten and even if I tried to forget my co-worker would not let me, because she's Dominican and so is her husband.
243. Wrass
Ok on the list I go!
Quoting 184. westscotweather:

I think that historians should always account for the impact of climate, droughts and major weather events when discussing the past, but they shouldn't be taken as the sole determining factor - I can't think of any event in which climate has actually played a key role.


I have not seen any serious discussion of climate being the "sole determining factor" in regards to situations like the current one in Syria. I have only seen analysis like DeepSeaRising discussed with comment# 194. As a sweatshop worker, this sounds like a straw man argument. If you could please provide an example of this being called "the sole determining factor" I will agree with your observation of that being wrong.

As far as "any event in which climate has actually played a key role" I would use the example of the demise of the Mayan civilization:
Link

Climate has most certainly played a key role from Tunisia to Egypt to Syria in recent events according to the opinions of reputable sources:
Link
and:
Link
Quoting 229. Wrass:

Beele not even close. Just regular build up up. Over glades aka land summer time stuff south fla ok.!!


I have a solution, go have a darn beer, it's Saturday night.
dont feed the trolls you guys dont Quote them or you may find your self a banned has well




rule 13 Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.
Quoting 194. DeepSeaRising:



True on it's face. But in Syria, the historic drought sent hundreds of thousands to big cities and set the stage for the uprising. Syria wasn't prepared for any adequate response. So climate impact and anti-government sentiment led to the uprising, Syrian government became a suppressor and monster as opposed to the answer. Yet had it not been for the historic drought, this outcome would not likely have happened. So it can be argued from either side. Geopolitical failure starting with the US at the head has led to now more refugees than at the height of WWII. It's a worldwide failure. AGW is not why this has happened, I would never argue that. But arguing that's where the spark was that led to the Syrian conflict can be argued. It will remain true moving forward that AGW will lead to geopolitical upheaval. Climate will never dictate government responses to social issues, but it will dictate why those responses are needed in the first place. Syria must be put in the perspective of the Arab Spring as a whole. Sentiment for change was there long before the drought that fed action on such sentiments. Drought was the flame that started the fire. It's a complicated world headed quickly in the wrong direction. In Syria, which affects everything that's happened in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and everywhere else around the Middle East; things may not look like this at all had it not been for Syria's historic drought.


I don't disagree with that at all - but the article refers to the European migrant crisis and the role of climate change in that process; not the breakdown in Syria (of which there were obviously multiple causes), of which climate change was certainly a short-term, extreme trigger. In 2014-15 migrants could have gone to other Gulf states were the situation there different, or Syria could have been politically resolved by now. Sure, climate change is always a factor, but I can't help but look at the last five years and think that any competent, legitimate state in the region would have survived scarcities without causing a humanitarian crisis. There may well be a climate failure coming in the region, but this surge of migrants is determined by a political failure more than anything else.
who thinks grace will hit hit florida like danny and erika were supposed to
Quoting 244. wartsttocs:



I have not seen any serious discussion of climate being the "sole determining factor" in regards to situations like the current one in Syria. I have only seen analysis like DeepSeaRising discussed with comment# 194. As a sweatshop worker, this sounds like a straw man argument. If you could please provide an example of this being called "the sole determining factor" I will agree with your observation of that being wrong.

As far as "any event in which climate has actually played a key role" I would use the example of the demise of the Mayan civilization:
Link

Climate has most certainly played a key role from Tunisia to Egypt to Syria in recent events according to the opinions of reputable sources:
Link
and:
Link



Well no; had climate played the key role then the results of climate distress in Tunisia, Egypt and Syria would surely be related to the recovery (or not) of their old climactic norm. Tunisia is more stable than the others now - is that because they've had more rainfall, or because their elites remained entrenched and were also open to some form of democratic reforms than in Egypt, never mind Syria? Climate change was certainly a factor in the Arab Spring, but that Spring has moved in many different directions, and I don't think that climate can account for that. As I said before, I think that we should always try to account for climate issues like serious crop failures caused by drought, urbanisation etc. in historical developments, but how these relate to events several years down the line is a tenuous argument at best. War in the region in 2015 is no longer the result of drought in 2010; individuals and parties have kept it going for five full years now.

I'd also suggest that the Maya example is based on the relative lack of records which hits all medieval history, in which historians are basically having to guess from the very few sources that they have to offer. One of the few, fairly reliable sources seem to be climate data, from ice cores, tree rings etc. They are useful, but don't fully explain what actually happened.
250. FOREX
Quoting 248. leftrighty:

who thinks grace will hit hit florida like danny and erika were supposed to
None of the experts do, that's all that matters.
Quoting 236. sar2401:

Please, don't quote an entire post if you're going to report it. It gets more than a little irritating having to read things from people I have on ignore because others feel a need to quote their entire post.

Children calm down. I know I'm new here but I'm going to attempt a mr. Rogers style intervention. You guys are friends.
our local mets here think grace will most likely fall apart in 5 days

Typhoon Kilo
the whole entire central atlantic and carib is loaded with dry air... cant imagine grace surriving past day 3 and 4
255. beell
Quoting 248. leftrighty:

who thinks grace will hit hit florida like danny and erika were supposed to


danny and erika did not hit florida like they were supposed to
so it is entirely possible that grace will hit florida the same way danny and erika did not.

clear?
I feel like the most common motion this year has been west at 280 degrees for these storms. Just north of due west. Just enough to trick people into thinking it's suddenly going wnw, but it's actually just a wobble.
I see they don't have Fred weakening to a remnant low anymore, at least on the map. Tough storm he is. Now watch it dissipate lol
Quoting 255. beell:



danny and erika did not hit florida like they were supposed to
so it is entirely possible that grace will hit florida the same way danny an id erika did not.
Quoting 255. beell:



danny and erika did not hit florida like they were supposed to
so it is entirely possible that grace will hit florida the same way danny and erika did not.
i know so im just gonna leave it up to the experts who know best what will happen
never seen soooooooooooooooooooo many new people posting in here tonigjt

Tropical Storm GRACE Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT32 KNHC 052051
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MOTION IN DISCUSSION SECTION

...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 26.4W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 26.4 West. Grace is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, with weakening possible by Monday.
Quoting 255. beell:



danny and erika did not hit florida like they were supposed to
so it is entirely possible that grace will hit florida the same way danny and erika did not.

clear?


I believe you channeled your inner Donald Rumsfeld on that one b. ;-)
Quoting 252. leftrighty:

our local mets here think grace will most likely fall apart in 5 days
i think so to!!
Wow.. Not even a full day yet and I'm already seeing RIP and death notices for grace smh.. I thought we learned with Danny/Erika not to assume anything beyond 5 days. Mother Nature controls the tropics. I guess some didn't learn from the last storms.
Quoting 253. PedleyCA:


Typhoon Kilo



and 92W in front
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150905 2345 12.6 26.7 T2.5/2.5 07L GRACE
20150905 1745 12.4 25.8 T2.5/2.5 07L NONAME
20150905 1145 12.3 24.6 T2.5/2.5 91L 91L
20150905 0545 11.6 22.8 T1.5/1.5 91L 91L


Alright, where did the water go..?...:) Someone pulled the drainplug
267. beell
There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.

~Donald Rumsfeld


Quoting 264. Tazmanian:




and 92W in front


Thanks Taz . I was wondering about that.
Quoting 249. westscotweather:



Well no; had climate played the key role then the results of climate distress in Tunisia, Egypt and Syria would surely be related to the recovery (or not) of their old climactic norm.


I would like to clarify that I was referring to a key role and not the key role, as was my earlier point that "sole determining factor" is not an accurate description of serious analysis. I think your comment #247. is a good one that is inclusive of all factors. The article I linked to in comment# 244. regarding the Mayan civilization cites papers published in respected, refereed journals and do a little bit more than guessing. While taking into account all factors of turmoil past, present, or especially future, I think that overestimating the impacts of a changing climate (as you seem to suggest) does not fit.

In my opinion.
Quoting 267. beell:

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.

~Donald Rumsfeld





My brain hurts.
Late night hello from Germany. So "Grace" did form - again, I have to say, lol. The difficult process of naming the last "Grace" in 2009 was one of the first dramas I've followed very closely on WU (without posting much if anything as I am/was very shy :-) because Grace occurred on "my" side of the Atlantic and unusually far north near the Azores. Reading back in the archive I see that this last Grace was named on October 5, 2009, a whole month later than now - umm, how did we even survive that season, lol? And apart of this, it's a really nostalgic thing to read the comment section of those historic entries: some handles are still here (even some trolls, lol), others who were very active back then, are apparently gone for good, one member even died some years ago (RIP Bordonaro).
So "Grace" again. And I hope "she" won't do any harm as her predecessor didn't - "Grace" would be a really inappropriate name for a devastating and deadly hurricane. Who could ever sing "Amazing grace ..." any more in the affected area, I wonder?
Quoting 266. hydrus:



Alright, where did the water go..?...:) Someone pulled the drainplug


Lots and lots of water here in C FL. 7th wettest Summer so far for Sanford & Orlando with just over 30" of rain for June July & August. 15.86" fell in just August in Orlando surpassing the active hurricane seasons of 2004/2005. Just goes to show u we don't need tropical systems here to get the top 10 wettest summer's ever.

33.03" here in Longwood since June 1st.
274. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, 1 stable SAT imagery IR10.7m & 3 SAT imagery types being tested, combined via my FunktopGal filter#34**.
(clickME4orgSize 1520x820GIF)
That spin in Eastern Mexico continued but just for this good quality AniGif it was 7MB and at 56k(49k) connection speed i ain't gonna waste too much time adding any more frames. Search archives to see that LOW spin on land heading SW over western Mexico.
.
**(30 series (30-38) where 3D-ish while 60 series (60-67) where 6D-ish...

6D-ish? i explained that on my now deleted blogbytes as its Physics 3D combined with Galacsics 3D, latter being wind, mag, resonating-light a higher form of plasma all these.

Of course NOT real 3D, but the directional lift, grain size & light angle assigned to each point(s) of light are to represent what the Satellite is picking up to appear as if its a visible 3D image even at nite. ...but i digress i'm a nut.

The key is in 3 sets of 6, no moisture ascending,  (fog) moisture suspended/floating/building (still spreading at highest level-TS) ,  moisture descending.
275. JRRP
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 7 minHace 7 minutos Ver traducción
Grace has formed in the tropical Atlantic. The 1981-2010 average for 7th named storm formation is 9/13.
Quoting 270. ElConando:



My brain hurts.
unknowns that will never be known
I don't trust the G storms, SW Caribbean might be worth watching too!
All the experts have an educated statistical guess according to past atmospheric conditions and certain events ie:El nino, fact is at the end of the day no one knows for certain, weather can change on a dime, I'm sticking with my gut prediction just for fun of 11/7/2
Grace.......not so amazing.......yet...
Quoting 279. Kowaliga:

Grace.......not so amazing.......yet...

lifting up a bit looks like
Quoting 256. ElConando:

I feel like the most common motion this year has been west at 280 degrees for these storms. Just north of due west. Just enough to trick people into thinking it's suddenly going wnw, but it's actually just a wobble.


Quoting 248. leftrighty:

who thinks grace will hit hit florida like danny and erika were supposed to


Grace is pretty far away from the islands, let alone the mainland.
Quoting 271. Grothar:


another could it be the one
Quoting 281. TropicalAnalystwx13:


fighting

Quoting 30. NEWilmNCTP:

I remember Fran very well. We taped our storage building being destroyed by her. The doors blew off the the roof and all the stuff inside went everywhere. That was the 2nd hurricane of that year. The first was Bertha and then Fran in September. That was what got me interested in wunderground. I remember a guy named storm. Does anyone know what ever happened to him. I know there always seems to be way to much bickering and name calling on here so I just read most of the time, but I saw where someone wanted to know who else had went through Fran. I remember they kept saying that Fran was going into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina then ops, it came up just Cape Fear River.

Storm got the boot. Despite repeated attempts to get him to toe the line he kept putting his foot(and other feet) in his mouth.
Quoting 281. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Looks like Fred is hanging on to life still.
Quoting 285. CosmicEvents:


Storm got the boot. Despite repeated attempts to get him to toe the line he kept putting his foot(and other feet) in his mouth.


Storm? Who is he talking about?
Quoting 280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lifting up a bit looks like


[rubs eyes] looks due 270 to me.
Quoting 284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

fighting




At one point this morning to Fred had little to zero convection yet a clear low level circulation, someone said he looked like a remnant low. This shows otherwise.
Quoting 93. Envoirment:

Hopefully Grace will give the northern island of the Caribbean some rain.


Oh my... YES!!
INIT 06/0300Z 12.8N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 13.3N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 13.6N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 14.1N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 14.8N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 15.3N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH


:(
Quoting 291. CaribBoy:

INIT 06/0300Z 12.8N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 13.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 13.3N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 13.6N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 14.1N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 14.8N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 15.3N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH


:(
2016
I don't usually post, just lurk to learn, but wanted to commend the people who have stood up for the forecasters at the NHC. They have to take a lot of bashing from people who think they know more (even from Bryan Norcross, weatherman wannabe). People with class don't bash. I lived in Miami most of my life and went through many storms and can say the NHC did a great job, much of it before the forecast models were used.
It's far too easy to be a "Monday morning quarterback" than be out on the field facing your opponent in the heat of the game.
Again, thanks to those who supported the forecasters at the NHC. They deserve our support and thanks.
Quoting 292. Gearsts:

2016


Umm. It's still 2015! I suggest you don't write off the season yet. Their was still destruction cause of Erika. Hurricane season ends November 30th not today!
Ps: Mother Nature is in control of the environment and tropical systems.. Not us! I suggest we don't write anything off!
Thank you!
I still have the e-mail from storm as to why he left.Let's just say people admin and him couldn't see "eye to eye" and I'm done talking about it.
That low on Africa will be our next named system. 18z has it very strong. I'm giving it a 0 / 30 chance
Quoting 294. WeatherLover213:



Umm. It's still 2015! I suggest you don't write off the season yet. Their was still destruction cause of Erika. Hurricane season ends November 30th not today!
Ps: Mother Nature is in control of the environment and tropical systems.. Not us! I suggest we don't write anything off!
Thank you!
thanks!!!! Now to add you to my list.
Quoting 293. Nativegrl:

I don't usually post, just lurk to learn, but wanted to commend the people who have stood up for the forecasters at the NHC. They have to take a lot of bashing from people who think they know more (even from Bryan Norcross, weatherman wannabe). People with class don't bash. I lived in Miami most of my life and went through many storms and can say the NHC did a great job, much of it before the forecast models were used.
It's far too easy to be a "Monday morning quarterback" than be out on the field facing your opponent in the heat of the game.
Again, thanks to those who supported the forecasters at the NHC. They deserve our support and thanks.


Norcross made constructive critiques of the handling of the forecast of Erika. There's a difference. Looking at his credentials, he has a masters in Communications and Meteorology, and his blog post here raises many good points about communication with regards to storms as challenging as Erika was.
Quoting 172. ColoradoBob1:

“Everything I was Dreaming of is Gone” — How Climate Change is Spurring a Global Refugee Crisis to Rapidly Worsen

Over the past two weeks, news of the plight of a swelling wave of refugees fleeing to Europe has filled the mainstream media. We looked on in horror at reports of innocent human beings fleeing destabilized countries in the Middle East, of people suffocating while stuffed into the backs of trucks, of drowned children washed up on the shores of nations their families had hoped would care for them.

It’s all a part of a growing global mass migration. A tragic dislocation and diaspora. But this time it’s not only birds, or polar bears, or fish, or walruses, or insects, or plants that are being forced to move by habitat and food loss, by toxified environments or by increasingly dangerous weather. It’s human beings too.


Link

1.6M Central American, Caribbean Campesinos Hit by Drought

The region’s agricultural ministers met in El Salvador and declared an agricultural alert to deal with the crisis.

Over 1.6 million Central American and Caribbean campesinos and their families have been seriously affected by a severe drought caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon, prompting officials of the region’s countries to declare an agricultural alert Thursday.

In Guatemala alone, according to a recent report, some 1 million people are starving due to the drought and the crops it has destroyed. In Honduras, 10 municipalities are now officially experiencing famine. Meanwhile, in Puerto Rico, hundreds of thousands of households in the capital San Juan and along the country’s north coast have had their water use restricted to two days a week.


Link

I have a question, how high does Trump's Wall have to be to stop all this ?

Thats a really good question. Enjoyed the post. Thanks.
302. JLPR2
Well now, wow... I don't remember seeing so much agreement between the models, specially in the long range.
If Grace was interesting.... the blog would be faster... right?
Quoting 303. CaribBoy:

If Grace was interesting.... the blog would be faster... right?



well you please this long off for the night all ready no one wants tooo here you go on and on and on
Quoting 298. beell:

Al Roker’s Weather Channel Show Canceled After Tense Emails Over Katrina-Anniversary Coverage-theroot.com/09/03/15

If they're gonna cancel anything, I would've suggested they start with Prospectors, Fat Guys in the Woods, etc...
Quoting 305. TropicalAnalystwx13:


If they're gonna cancel anything, I would've suggested they start with Prospectors, Fat Guys in the Woods, etc...


Well it's a start.

Everything has to start from somehwere ;)
307. JLPR2
Quoting 303. CaribBoy:

If Grace was interesting.... the blog would be faster... right?


Not really... now if it were pointing at Florida, then this place would be much faster. XD
Quoting 298. beell:

Al Roker’s Weather Channel Show Canceled After Tense Emails Over Katrina-Anniversary Coverage-theroot.com/09/03/15


Considering the man is not a meteorologist, it's a long time coming. Not to grave dance, but Al Roker is a buffoon. TWC should have on-air talent that is strictly folks who have degrees in meteorology, IMO.
309. NNYer
Quoting 272. barbamz:

Late night hello from Germany. So "Grace" did form - again, I have to say, lol. The difficult process of naming the last "Grace" in 2009 was one of the first dramas I've followed very closely on WU (without posting much if anything as I am/was very shy :-) because Grace occurred on "my" side of the Atlantic and unusually far north near the Azores. Reading back in the archive I see that this last Grace was named on October 5, 2009, a whole month later than now - umm, how did we even survive that season, lol? And apart of this, it's a really nostalgic thing to read the comment section of those historic entries: some handles are still here (even some trolls, lol), others who were very active back then, are apparently gone for good, one member even died some years ago (RIP Bordonaro).
So "Grace" again. And I hope "she" won't do any harm as her predecessor didn't - "Grace" would be a really inappropriate name for a devastating and deadly hurricane. Who could ever sing "Amazing grace ..." any more in the affected area, I wonder?


Barb,

Taking it one step further, some of us remember Hurricane grace, which merged with a powerful cold front in late 1991 to become the so called "Perfect Storm" although no longer a named or tropical one at that point. Grace has a lot of history for sure, she is pretty famous for stopping by and making herself known every few years!
Quoting 307. JLPR2:



Not really... now if it were pointing at Florida, then this place would be much faster. XD


Two things:

It's a holiday weekend...
The storm is not far enough along to the W (with the extended cone touching FL) to garner interest. Trust me....IF it survives long enough for "coneage" to reach FL, there will be 3,000 comments inside of an hour.
Well you guys tomorrow is my 7 year anniversary of being a forecaster in weather. I have had fun over these past 7 years and even though there were tough times, I still had fun. I think I'm becoming a better forecaster and I starting to believe that this will be a great career. I want to thank Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson for all of their knowledge, and blogs. As well as you guys. Love you guys and now lets celebrate.
312. beell
Quoting 305. TropicalAnalystwx13:


If they're gonna cancel anything, I would've suggested they start with Prospectors, Fat Guys in the Woods, etc...


Hardly ever watch TV (weather stuff on the internet? guilty). Spent 2 weeks in Austin recently. Turned on the TV in the hotel room a couple times. There was some goofy s*** on there. I agree.

Did catch the WU show one time. It seemed a bit over-energetic at first. Probably due to my lack of exposure to TV media in general. But, the show was ok. It was clear their intent was to reach a bit higher level of current meteorological/climate content than anything else out there. I liked it!

Perhaps a difficult programming issue if the choices came down to Erika or Al's Katrina coverage. A no-brainer for me, anyway, lol.
Quoting 311. HurricaneAndre:

Well you guys tomorrow is my 7 year anniversary of being a forecaster in weather. I have had fun over these past 7 years and even though there were tough times, I still had fun. I think I'm becoming a better forecaster and I starting to believe that this will be a great career. I want to thank Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson for all of their knowledge, and blogs. As well as you guys. Love you guys and now lets celebrate.



YAWN what's not and say we did
314. LBAR
Quoting 302. JLPR2:

Well now, wow... I don't remember seeing so much agreement between the models, specially in the long range.



Notice I'm not agreeing with any of those uppity models. :-p
Quoting 314. LBAR:



Notice I'm not agreeing with any of those uppity models. :-p


Models this year don't matter. Not one whit......

I don't care if it is a CAT 5. Once a storm reaches 60W this year, it's game over. Period. End of story. That unholy alliance of subsidence/shear belt that has been in place all summer, isn't moving. Nothing will survive that gauntlet. Given the vigorous waves this year, combined with the steering pattern, we should probably be thankful this is the case.
Quoting 308. nash36:



Considering the man is not a meteorologist, it's a long time coming. Not to grave dance, but Al Roker is a buffoon. TWC should have on-air talent that is strictly folks who have degrees in meteorology, IMO. I agree
Quoting 313. Tazmanian:




YAWN what's not and say we did
Thanks Taz
Quoting 315. nash36:



Models this year don't matter. Not one whit......

I don't care if it is a CAT 5. Once a storm reaches 60W this year, it's game over. Period. End of story. That unholy alliance of subsidence/shear belt that has been in place all summer, isn't moving. Nothing will survive that gauntlet. Given the vigorous waves this year, combined with the steering pattern, we should probably be thankful this is the case.


Erika actually did pretty well. The prolonged land interaction with the mountainous areas is what killed her.
319. vis0
Vivian Brown made an emotional exit from the Weather Channel on Tuesday. not to go off topic.

Thank you to Vivian Brown  the only person to respond to my science related clues of the dozens of meteorologists i wrote to.
i'd write her supportive penpal letters for her on air work plus add some of my weird theories and Vivian would reply. Not that Vivian understood my weird drawings or words as to my theories (who does...sit down & roll over   Λ^RADAR-inside joke to WxU members) but AT LEAST Mrs. Brown replied, ~8 letters over ~3 yrs.

Sincerely mrX (**smily face here**) -nyc was my signature then.

Everyone have a safe and be weather wise this Labor Day wkend. Observe beach rules, do not drive if you do not have 100% focus on the road, pull over to take a short nap aka brain refresh like when one has to restart the compu'r cause 4 days of it being on slows it down and take plenty of cloud pics.
Quoting 319. vis0:

Vivian Brown made an emotional exit from the Weather Channel on Tuesday. not to go off topic.

Thank you to Vivian Brown  the only person to respond to my science related clues of the dozens of meteorologists i wrote to.
i'd write her supportive penpal letters for her on air work plus add some of my weird theories and Vivian would reply. Not that Vivian understood my weird drawings or words as to my theories (who does...sit down & roll over   Λ^RADAR-inside joke to WxU members) but AT LEAST Mrs. Brown replied, ~8 letters over ~3 yrs.

Sincerely mrX (**smily face here**) -nyc was my signature then.

Everyone have a safe and be weather wise this Labor Day wkend. Observe beach rules, do not drive if you do not have 100% focus on the road, pull over to take a short nap aka brain refresh like when one has to restart the compu'r cause 4 days of it being on slows it down and take plenty of cloud pics.



Where is Vivian going? I did like her, but over the last couple of years, she did seem somewhat disconnected.
Quoting 319. vis0:

Vivian Brown made an emotional exit from the Weather Channel on Tuesday. not to go off topic.

Thank you to Vivian Brown  the only person to respond to my science related clues of the dozens of meteorologists i wrote to.
i'd write her supportive penpal letters for her on air work plus add some of my weird theories and Vivian would reply. Not that Vivian understood my weird drawings or words as to my theories (who does...sit down & roll over   Λ^RADAR-inside joke to WxU members) but AT LEAST Mrs. Brown replied, ~8 letters over ~3 yrs.

Sincerely mrX (**smily face here**) -nyc was my signature then.

Everyone have a safe and be weather wise this Labor Day wkend. Observe beach rules, do not drive if you do not have 100% focus on the road, pull over to take a short nap aka brain refresh like when one has to restart the compu'r cause 4 days of it being on slows it down and take plenty of cloud pics.

I'm going to miss her. Enjoyed watching her on the weekdays from 10a-1p. She was a very good meteorologist and she was one of the pillars of TWC and she will be missed. Love you Vivian Brown.
Quoting 314. LBAR:



Notice I'm not agreeing with any of those uppity models. :-p
Tight consensus there.
Not to sound trite, but I would not be upset if Stephanie Abrams left. I really don't care for her. She tries to be too "cool" and Hollywood on air, and it just doesn't work. She is becoming too "New Yorkish", and it doesn't suit her. Every time I see her, I can't help but think she would do better as a college football analyst.
Software glitch?

Quoting 318. FunnelVortex:



Erika actually did pretty well. The prolonged land interaction with the mountainous areas is what killed her.


The fact that she was never able to stack the circulations is what lead to her demise. It was evident shortly after being named. False model runs fueled the flames.
Quoting 307. JLPR2:



Not really... now if it were pointing at Florida, then this place would be much faster. XD


I guess you should try to recruit more local weather buffs, instead of complaining about the ones who have a large following?
Grace CDO

Grace looks good at the surface and 850. Might be on the upswing.
Almost stacked looking at the wind maps.
Link
Link
The loss of Al Roker and Vivian Brown is a sad one to me, as I've been a watcher of both for a very long time. I won't go into the validity of either of those "choices", as this isn't a socio-political blog, nor should it be. But I will miss them both, and Stephanie Abrams, if she should get dropped from the "main" online roster, too, irrespective of what many of you may feel about their level of meteorological competence.

All that, well... sighed... I am not surprised, as I still truly feel that this September will be one of the most dramatic months in the history of this country, in all sorts of ways, and that them being gone now is just another sign of that "sea change"... for all of us.

Jo
Wouldn't you agree that year could have been a horrible year for the islands and maybe the U.S. mainland if it wasn't for shear. The storms have done well fighting of the dry air but cannot handle the shear.
332. vis0
is that TTD8 coming in to washi115 (Tiny Trop dep)
Quoting 328. ProgressivePulse:

Grace CDO



She looks a lot better than she did Saturday afternoon. I predict in my latest blog post that she will peak just below hurricane force by 48 hours. I also predict the tropical wave behind Grace (currently over western Africa) will be Tropical Storm Henri by 96 to 120 hrs. I also predict Fred will hang on for the next five days.

See my latest blog post for lots of details on all three of these systems. If all these predictions come true...the eastern Atlantic will be having three simultaneous storms as we move into next week.
Quoting 330. flibinite:

The loss of Al Roker and Vivian Brown is a sad one to me, as I've been a watcher of both for a very long time. I won't go into the validity of either of those "choices", as this isn't a socio-political blog, nor should it be. But I will miss them both, and Stephanie Abrams, if she should get dropped from the "main" online roster, too, irrespective of what many of you may feel about their level of meteorological competence.

All that, well... sighed... I am not surprised, as I still truly feel that this September will be one of the most dramatic months in the history of this country, in all sorts of ways, and that them being gone now is just another sign of that "sea change"... for all of us.

Jo


It could be a September to remember for sure.

How Grace goes away gracefully... Not liking the track so far... Needs to move more to the north.
Quoting 334. Dakster:



It could be a September to remember for sure.

How Grace goes away gracefully... Not liking the track so far... Needs to move more to the north.
give it time they will change the track a few times per day
we will have a better idea where grace is going after the new models come out
New models are out new advisory are out and new forecasts are out there has been a shift S and W
Infact current position has shifted S and W

Looking at the latest microwave imagery Grace is clearly becoming much more organised showing very clear banding on N and S and possible eye like feature developing and current intensity may be quite conservative as suggest by the NHC in the forecast discussion

Sunday morning Grace



Quoting 302. JLPR2:

Well now, wow... I don't remember seeing so much agreement between the models, specially in the long range.


I don't see a northward track for Grace. It may turn out differently but I think Grace will be a hurricane on Labor Day and then weaken. The second time history repeats it's a tragedy like Grace in Dominica. The third time it will be farce.
Deep convection has become better organized during the past several
hours, with a more pronounced curved band developing to the west
and south of the center. Recent microwave imagery, especially a
0331 UTC GCOM pass, showed a surprisingly well-organized inner core,
with the low-level center located a little farther south than
previous estimates. Subjective Dvorak estimates are T3.0/45 kt from
TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore
raised to 40 kt. If Grace is as well organized as suggested by the
microwave data, this intensity could be conservative


Quoting 338. TheBigBanana:

Sunday morning Grace






Here is a more recent microwave imagery than the GCOM imagery shows more organisation

Quoting 340. TheBigBanana:

I don't see a northward track for Grace. It may turn out differently but I think Grace will be a hurricane on Labor Day and then weaken. The second time history repeats it's a tragedy like Grace in Dominica. The third time it will be farce.


I think so I think Grace will continue W
Hurricane is a possibility for Grace IMO
I think it could even be that Grace passes S of Dominica and Guadeloupe

Also IMO I think the shear won't be as bad as the NHC thinks at day 4 & 5 and I think it will keep on going more than the forecast and models show
Quoting 325. Grothar:




Deep convection is more better during the past several
hours, with a curved band developing to the west
and south of the center
Quoting 242. wadadlian:

Good evening all. I see that Grace has graced us with her (its)..... actually I prefer "her" presence. Only God knows what this one will do. Danny and Erika surprised a lot of people, and of course the the Met office got a good beating; but then again, who could have known what was to be? We're just mere humans trying to get into the "mind" of something no one will ever fully understand. Dominica, you're not forgotten and even if I tried to forget my co-worker would not let me, because she's Dominican and so is her husband.


Thanks so much for keeping us in mind and in Prayer!
All interested parties in Dominica are doing their Level best to continue to get the country back on its feet as soon as possible. Of course we are continuing to also keep a close eye on all the other systems out in the open Tropical Atlantic. Grace seems to be well on her way, so let's hope and pray that she will be gracious to our islands who could potentially be in her projected path. Keep safe everyone.
Blessings!
Wow Grace putting on a little show this AM. A CDO has formed around the LLC and a large feater band has developed on the northern side. Based on satellite, I would say Grace is probably a 50, maybe 60 mph storm. Microwave imagery has improved quite a bit in the last 6 hours. I would be surprised if she becomes a minimal cane by tonight or tomorrow. Since needs to do some strengthening and grow her convective mass a little bit more before Tuesday when upper level winds increase. But so far so good!


Quoting 342. wunderkidcayman:



I think so I think Grace will continue W
Hurricane is a possibility for Grace IMO
I think it could even be that Grace passes S of Dominica and Guadeloupe

Also IMO I think the shear won't be as bad as the NHC thinks at day 4 & 5 and I think it will keep on going more than the forecast and models show


Another year I might agree with you with a storm in the deep tropics but conditions usually remain hostile during an El Nino year.
only one model had fred making the central atlantic gfs
butterfly island is always number 1 candidate. hopefully she sees her demise before then
Tropical Depression Fred look better this morning to!!
What are the current steering pattern In the Atlantic ... How strong is the mid Atlantic high...
Quoting 347. TheBigBanana:



Another year I might agree with you with a storm in the deep tropics but conditions usually remain hostile during an El Nino year.


Well let's see what happens I say people are overhyping the hostile conditions this year I also say people are overhyping the El Niño too


the next tropical wave to watch
Quoting 349. islander101010:

butterfly island is always number 1 candidate. hopefully she sees her demise before then


May I ask you what butterfly island your talking about because I have never seen or heard of Butterfly islands nor is there any listings for a butterfly island

Quoting 352. bupsin101:

What are the current steering pattern In the Atlantic ... How strong is the mid Atlantic high...


Atlantic high ridge is rebuilding and moving W under TD Fred and extending W to the lesser Antilles

Good Morning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 43.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 43.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.2N 40.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.5N 38.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.2N 36.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 31.5N 32.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
The combination of the asymmetric hemispheric (anomalous) SST dipole (i.e. +Atlantic Meridional Mode- along w/ the AMO, is among one of the leading modes of coupled ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic), focusing convergence in the northern hemisphere side of the Atlantic via (strengthening southeasterly trades & weakening North-easterlies) positive feedback between the initial SST & SLP anomalies, & of course given that Africa is usually wetter than normal during Strong El Nino events anyway, it makes sense why the AEW train has been stronger than normal this year. In fact, this is the first time in the reliable era that we've seen 4 named tropical cyclones develop in the eastern deep tropical Atlantic (8-20N, 60W-Africa) (Danny, Erika, Fred, & Grace) in the presence of a strong El Nino. This is also the case if one uses the pre-1950 ENSO & HURDAT data, however it's likely that at least a few TCs are still missing from this portion of the Atlantic basin from HURDAT...










sorry kid cay. guadeloupe. the island statistically is number 1 most likely. .
356 wunderkidcayman I think he is referring to Guadeloupe ... If am not wrong..
Quoting 364. bupsin101:

356 wunderkidcayman I think he is referring to Guadeloupe ... If am not wrong..


I know he was referring to Guadeloupe but he should call it Guadeloupe instead of butterfly island

Quoting 363. islander101010:

sorry kid cay. guadeloupe. the island statistically is number 1 most likely. .


I'm glad you know the name you should start to use it instead of butterfly island
Quoting 350. hurricanes2018:




Fred look much improved from a naked swirl yesterday. There is some moderate to strong convection popping off over the center. I suspect we will see TS Fred again later this AM.
Quoting 362. Webberweather53:

The combination of the asymmetric hemispheric (anomalous) SST dipole (i.e. +Atlantic Meridional Mode- along w/ the AMO, is among one of the leading modes of coupled ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic), focusing convergence in the northern hemisphere side of the Atlantic via (strengthening southeasterly trades & weakening North-easterlies) positive feedback between the initial SST & SLP anomalies, & of course given that Africa is usually wetter than normal during Strong El Nino events anyway, it makes sense why the AEW train has been stronger than normal this year. In fact, this is the first time in the reliable era that we've seen 4 named tropical cyclones develop in the eastern deep tropical Atlantic (8-20N, 60W-Africa) (Danny, Erika, Fred, & Grace) in the presence of a strong El Nino. This is also the case if one uses the pre-1950 ENSO & HURDAT data, however it's likely that at least a few TCs are still missing from this portion of the Atlantic basin from HURDAT...













Interesting
Quoting 349. islander101010:

butterfly island is always number 1 candidate. hopefully she sees her demise before then
Quoting 363. islander101010:

sorry kid cay. guadeloupe. the island statistically is number 1 most likely. .


Are you sure about that where you get you statistical information from
Grace looks to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane IMO.
Quoting 358. wunderkidcayman:



Atlantic high ridge is rebuilding and moving W under TD Fred and extending W to the lesser Antilles




Yes and just like it's predecessors, he will weaken and most likely die. Conditions haven't changed all summer.
conus got its shield up this season so far. as we get into late sept going to need to watch the nw carib.
Quoting 338. TheBigBanana:

Sunday morning Grace




Looks like the perfect September Cape Verde Storm. Many that looked liked this went on to be deadly and dangerous hurricanes.
Quoting 369. HurricaneAndre:

Grace looks to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane IMO.
I wouldn't be surprised if she does. Intensity forecasts being as hard as they are and all. Regardless, she's gonna get creamed in a couple days.
Quoting 372. hydrus:

Looks like the perfect September Cape Verde Storm. Many that looked liked this went on to be deadly and dangerous hurricanes.
I agree with you. This storm will shock forecasters, and meteorologists.

This next wave looks great. This will be Henri over the next few days.
Butterfly Island

Linda is here.

Quoting 377. Grothar:

Butterfly Island


Beauitiful. Is it somewhere in the Pacific? Google was not my friend in this case.

Quoting 380. SunnyDaysFla:




Not sure, but I think it has a Monarch.
Quoting 377. Grothar:

Butterfly Island




you rock.. good morning Sir.
Quoting 370. Bucsboltsfan:



Yes and just like it's predecessors, he will weaken and most likely die. Conditions haven't changed all summer.


Well let's wait and see
I think She Will not die like Danny/Erika she might but I don't think it will

Quoting 371. islander101010:

conus got its shield up this season so far. as we get into late sept going to need to watch the nw carib.


Late Sept/Oct/Nov yep

Quoting 372. hydrus:

Looks like the perfect September Cape Verde Storm. Many that looked liked this went on to be deadly and dangerous hurricanes.


Hmm Hurricane Grace maybe
Quoting 377. Grothar:

Butterfly Island




I thought that was Infinity Island.
Quoting 376. HurricaneAndre:


This next wave looks great. This will be Henri over the next few days.


Yeah maybe
Bing was my friend. Near Papua New Guinea. Do I get a cookie?
Quoting 386. GeoffreyWPB:



I thought that was Infinity Island.


Come on Geoff. It's too early in the morning. This conversation could go on forever.
Quoting 385. wunderkidcayman:



Well let's wait and see
I think She Will not die like Danny/Erika she might but I don't think it will



Late Sept/Oct/Nov yep



Hmm Hurricane Grace maybe
Yep...Cept that Grace was an October Grace.
Quoting 380. SunnyDaysFla:
Is it somewhere in the Pacific?

It's on a class "m" planet somewhere in Alpha Centuari. Grothar really gets around.
Quoting 383. Grothar:



Not sure, but I think it has a Monarch.
Is his name Lorenz..?


WKC, please share your evidence that you have to show Grace won't meet the same demise as all of the previous storms. I'm having a hard time finding anything. Thx.
Grace is close to a carbon copy of Danny. Really has its act together in terms of an inner core. Looks on its way to becoming a hurricane. Regardless though, like Danny, its fate is sealed. The shredder awaits. Hopefully it can bring a little more rain to the eastern Caribbean.

It will be another wait and see with Grace, looking at Shear this morning there is still plenty of 30 knots SW Shear in the Caribbean and strong shear North of the Islands. Its 5 day outlook at best is bleak and life afterwards is flickering.
Quoting 389. Grothar:


Unanimous models consensus, point to the northeastern Caribbean, like her previews CV siblings. The questions is what conditions await our system after 60 W....
Quoting 395. Bucsboltsfan:

WKC, please share your evidence that you have to show Grace won't meet the same demise as all of the previous storms. I'm having a hard time finding anything. Thx.
Anyone have a spare Anticyclone lying around?
Quoting 396. MAweatherboy1:

Grace is close to a carbon copy of Danny. Really has its act together in terms of an inner core. Looks on its way to becoming a hurricane. Regardless though, like Danny, its fate is sealed. The shredder awaits. Hopefully it can bring a little more rain to the eastern Caribbean.



With a tiny, but important note, is peak in September and a most larger system. Let's see if that makes a difference ...
Quoting 398. HuracanTaino:

Unanimous models consensus, point to the northeastern Caribbean, like her previews CV siblings. The questions is what conditions await our system after 60 W....


Or... after 50W :(
Going to El Nino for a second, I don't know if I'm wrong but looking at this do you think maybe it is flattening out or possibly trying to try and drop? Is there a better graphic to look at? img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 393. hydrus:

Is his name Lorenz..?




Good Photoshop
Quoting 398. HuracanTaino:

Unanimous models consensus, point to the northeastern Caribbean, like her previews CV siblings. The questions is what conditions await our system after 60 W....


Hostile
Where I can find the intensity models for GRACE?
Quoting 401. CaribBoy:



Or... after 50W :(

After Erika anything can happen, from a major to a low with historic flash floods through the islands or even nothing. Who knows...
Quoting 404. Grothar:



Hostile


Erika left 8mm of rain here, that's less than 1/3"....


No SAL :) Gorgeous weather, but of course some green is lacking in the scenery.
Quoting 402. George1938:

Going to El Nino for a second, I don't know if I'm wrong but looking at this do you think maybe it is flattening out or possibly trying to try and drop? Is there a better graphic to look at? img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">



dont go buy that there no cooling going on what so ever olny go buy on what the CPC has in there weekly updates wish stands right now at 2.2 will need too wait in tell monday too if there is really any cooling going on or not if then the CDAS maps are really off there marks on what the CPC has in there updates

and here the link too see the 1st updates monday AM

Link
Grace gettng that s shape:





I think Grace will manage to strengthen into at least a minimal hurricane before conditions start becoming hostile given how it is currently organising.
Quoting 404. Grothar:



Hostile


And Grace is taking her time, not a bob-&-weave racer like Erika was..
Quoting 395. Bucsboltsfan:

WKC, please share your evidence that you have to show Grace won't meet the same demise as all of the previous storms. I'm having a hard time finding anything. Thx.


He said Erika would go through the Caribbean and that shear would weaken. Shear in the Caribbean has been at or very near record levels all season and will continue. It's North of Puerto Rico or bust for any tropical Atlantic system this year. Near zero chance a system survives any lengthy trip through the Caribbean. But, to his credit, Erika did go more West and South of projections; he did project that happening.
Fizzle

Itsa Jungle out dere....



Long term best chance for Grace is remaining a swirl of low pressure after shearing that might find the way to more hospitable conditions.
418. SLU
...GRACE CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 6
Location: 12.9°N 29.9°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph



conservative
Shear conditions do look marginally better for Grace to 65W than they were for Erika, long way out though and conditions will change. Long way out yet for path to change, she gains some latitude and slips North of Puerto Rico then all projections will change. A stronger system makes this more likely. Don't see why Grace won't pull off intensifying to a Cat one or two with the conditions she's working with.
Quoting 416. Patrap:

Itsa Jungle out dere....






No wonder why it's so dry here :/
Quoting 368. wunderkidcayman:



Are you sure about that where you get you statistical information from
Agree Guadalupe historically has gone through the worst hurricanes, and for us in Puerto Rico, once Guadalupe or Dominica, gets hit, Puerto Rico is the next target. some examples:,...In Sept. 13, 1928 cat 5 hurricane, "San Felipe, II", " Slow, San Ciprian", cat 3, Sept. 26, 1932, 24hrs to go across the island from SE to NE, Santa Clara(Betsy), cat 1 August 12, 1956, Hugo, cat 4, Sept. 18, 1989. Hurricane Marilyn, Cat. 3, Sept. 16, 1995. Hortence, cat. 1, 1996, Hurricane George, Cat. 3, Sept. 21, 1998...
Quoting 421. HuracanTaino:

Agree Guadalupe historically has gone through the worst hurricanes, and for us in Puerto Rico, once Guadalupe or Dominica, gets hit, Puerto Rico is the next target. a little example:,...In Sept. 13, 1928 cat 5 hurricane, "San Felipe, II", " Slow, San Ciprian", cat 3, Sept. 26, 1932, 24hrs to go across the island from SE to NE, Santa Clara(Betsy), cat 1 August 12, 1956, Hugo, cat 4, Sept. 18, 1989. Hurricane Marilyn, Cat. 3, Sept. 16, 1995. Hortence, cat. 1, 1996, Hurricane George, Cat. 3, Sept. 21, 1998.


Then after 1998, Guadeloupe has really been spared every times... If I'm correct.
Quoting 379. Grothar:


For us in Puerto Rico,thanks God this is not La Nina Year.
424. SLU
Reading the Grace discussion by Pasch, I almost thought he was looking at a different storm. No acknowledgement of the recent microwave passes that show a developing TC that's nearing hurricane strength and the winds conservatively kept to 45mph. Hopefully we will get a solid ASCAT pass tonight.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2015 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 12:51:49 N Lon : 29:43:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 /1000.8mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -27.8C Cloud Region Temp : -39.9C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1016mb

Satellite Name : MSG3
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.4 degrees



Quoting 416. Patrap:

Itsa Jungle out dere....






KInda desertlike
Quoting 424. SLU:

Reading the Grace discussion by Pasch, I almost thought he was looking at a different storm. No acknowledgement of the recent microwave passes that show a developing TC that's nearing hurricane strength and the winds conservatively kept to 45mph. Hopefully we will get a solid ASCAT pass tonight.




They, as well as ALL intensity models, may be wrong too. :)
428. SLU
Quoting 421. HuracanTaino:

Agree Guadalupe historically has gone through the worst hurricanes, and for us in Puerto Rico, once Guadalupe or Dominica, gets hit, Puerto Rico is the next target. some examples:,...In Sept. 13, 1928 cat 5 hurricane, "San Felipe, II", " Slow, San Ciprian", cat 3, Sept. 26, 1932, 24hrs to go across the island from SE to NE, Santa Clara(Betsy), cat 1 August 12, 1956, Hugo, cat 4, Sept. 18, 1989. Hurricane Marilyn, Cat. 3, Sept. 16, 1995. Hortence, cat. 1, 1996, Hurricane George, Cat. 3, Sept. 21, 1998...


Don't forget major hurricane #3 of 1899 (Major hurricane "San Ciriaco")

Quoting 428. SLU:



Don't forget major hurricane #3 of 1899 (Major hurricane "San Ciriaco")




All islands have been through bad Hurricanes..Hugo destroyed over 90% of st.croix But barely gets mentioned when they bring up hugos name..I live on St.thomas and the history of bad storms is very long
Weakening flag on Patrap? What's up with that? Certainly looks like the opposite is happening. Grace will be at a minimum a 60mph storm by later today IMO.
431. SLU
Quoting 429. junie1:



All islands have been through bad Hurricanes..Hugo destroyed over 90% of st.croix But barely gets mentioned when they bring up hugos name..I live on St.thomas and the history of bad storms is very long


Yes indeed. Every last one. Even Trinidad. And the storms of long ago used to kill thousands mainly because of little warnings and poor housing.
432. JRRP
07L is struggling within itself - to find a center.

image added
Quoting 416. Patrap:

Itsa Jungle out dere....






Jungle? i don't know what you're seeing xD

Maybe an oasis... so dry e.e
435. JLPR2
Quoting 428. SLU:



Don't forget major hurricane #3 of 1899 (Major hurricane "San Ciriaco")




That's PR's deadliest hurricane with 3,369 fatalities.
Hurricanes seemed to be such a common thing back then, this year marks Georges's 17th anniversary and since then we haven't seen hurricane force winds. That's a pretty good gap there.
436. MahFL
Quoting 426. SunnyDaysFla:



KInda desertlike


Mid level wv is not so bad :

437. SLU
Quoting 435. JLPR2:



That's PR's deadliest hurricane with 3,369 fatalities.
Hurricanes seemed to be such a common thing back then, this year marks Georges's 17th anniversary and since then we haven't seen hurricane force winds. That's a pretty good gap there.


Do you know the longest time frame between hurricane strikes for PR since records were kept?


Grace's speed doesn't help it's case, but the dry air in around east of the islands seems to be moving slowly yet surely to the southwest.
Quoting 433. Barefootontherocks:

07L is struggling within itself - to find a center.

image added



????? Does not look like Grace is struggling to me

The whole picture - with a somehow exhausted Grace coming into view.
Grace seems to be pulling a Danny in terms of organization..Looking really good structurally ..Wouldn't be surprised to see it tern into a hurricane
Quoting 412. Grothar:



A touch of Blobus Nebulas Cancer there if I remember my photographic astronomy correctly.



443. JLPR2
Quoting 437. SLU:



Do you know the longest time frame between hurricane strikes for PR since records were kept?


Direct hit; 33yrs from Hurricane Betsy(Santa Clara) in 1956 and Hurricane Hugo in 1989.
Quoting 441. junie1:

Grace seems to be pulling a Danny in terms of organization..Looking really good structurally ..Wouldn't be surprised to see it tern into a hurricane


She is larger than Danny too, could make a huge difference down the road
Grace is ingesting dry air.
A convection ebb with Grace, that's why the weakening flag is on, but that's the flow we'd expect from a fledgling tropical storm. Structure is improving rapidly and the next convection blowup should see Grace blossom to a strong tropical storm.
Quoting 446. DeepSeaRising:

A convection ebb with Grace, that's why the weakening flag is on, but that's the flow we'd expect from a fledgling tropical storm. Structure is improving rapidly and the next convection blowup should see Grace blossom to a strong tropical storm.


We learned a lesson with Erika, pay attention to structure more than convection, however having more convection will aid in strengthening efforts..
Don't forget Linda.



Quoting 448. pablosyn:

Don't forget Linda.






i wounder if there a eye wall building in LINDA i say 45kt is a little to night i think LINDA is up too more 50kt at this time
Quoting 357. MahFL:



Vivian Brown left too...


That's the best news I've heard all day.
12Z GFS shows Grace as a weak system at 102 hours. It will be interesting to see if the system can hold together beyond 5 days.
LINDA looks more like a hurricane then a TS
Nothing left at 126 hours (12Z GFS). Wait to see if the system can regenerate.
454. vis0
Added by 22 million cents plus a Satellite image showing what Gothar might have named  "BlobisUndertheRadarus  IV" or "BUR IV...V"? as Mr. Stu might have titled it or not. Also a quick explanation why ncstorm's prediction went astray, no not related to her genes, sit down ncstorm not the jordache & why STS gets so much lluvia,  its ALL of course twisted by my nutty brain & as usual includes the kitchen zinc,  at my zilly blog pg3 cmmnt#108.

Stay safe and enjoy the Labor Day wkend.
455. SLU
Quoting 443. JLPR2:



Direct hit; 33yrs from Hurricane Betsy(Santa Clara) in 1956 and Hurricane Hugo in 1989.




That's a fairly long break. The current 17 year hurricane drought is destined to end one day. Hopefully not with a big bang.
Quoting 450. HurriHistory:



That's the best news I've heard all day.
What is this about? Did I miss something? Is cantori still tbere?
12Z GFS... Dominica may get very heavy rains once again ...
458. IDTH
Does not look like a weakening storm to me, the structure within is improving, yes the convection is waning but if the structure continues to improve the way it is, it's looking like it wouldn't take much for this to be a hurricane, similar to Danny. I see the models continue to dissipate Grace not showing any development, I don't know whether the models are right or if they're completely wrong, all I know is if it goes north in any way, it will encounter a good amount of shear.
Quoting 443. JLPR2:



Without a direct hit; 33yrs from Hurricane Betsy(Santa Clara) in 1956 and Hurricane Hugo in 1989.

Betsy to Hugo, a long period of 33 years without direct hit, until Hugo, 1989. Of course we had lot of damages from indirect hits, such Donna's rain caused catastrophic damages, in 1960. Same goes with TS Eloisa, 1975, also Cat 5 David, followed by Frederick, 1979, both in the same week. Finally, Oct. 8, 1985, with TS, Isabel, causing the "Mameyes" tragedy, were 100 plus victim perished(estimates numbers), in a gigantic land slide. Then came the active period with direct hits, Hugo, Sept, 21, 1989, Hortence 1996, George, 1998,Jeanne, 2004, TS Kyle, 2008 and Subtropical OTTo, 2010, mentioned them for the billionaire's destruction. The last direct hit Irene, 2011, surprisingly becoming a cat 1, on top of the island.
Quoting 455. SLU:




That's a fairly long break. The current 17 year hurricane drought is destined to end one day. Hopefully not with a big bang.
Also were the most prosperous years for the island...
Quoting 456. Sandcat:



I just googled it. Vivian Brown has offically resigned from The Weather Channel. Also Al Roker's morning program Wake Up With Al has been canceled and he is off the show.
I really don't know what all the controversy is about. Grace will be no different than all the others. For those of you who crave a US land falling major hurricane it simply is not going to happen this year in the Atlantic. I would recommend you turn your attention to the Pacific basin.
Quoting 462. yesterway:

I really don't know what all the controversy is about. Grace will be no different than all the others. For those of you who crave a US land falling major hurricane it simply is not going to happen this year in the Atlantic. I would recommend you turn your attention to the Pacific basin.


First off, no one "craves" a major landfall. To think that anyone on here that is not a troll craves for a major landfall is idiotic at best. Secondly, Grace is still a long way out there and things can change in the next few days. She has a strong inner core, which may allow her to survive where Erika could not. Lastly, the season does not just end when the last CV storm dissipates. This year we could very easily see a few storms in late September through mid November develop closer to home and intensify. No one has a crystal ball and can predict the future.
Quoting 441. junie1:

Grace seems to be pulling a Danny in terms of organization..Looking really good structurally ..Wouldn't be surprised to see it tern into a hurricane


This storm also got that strong core, a very distinctive characteristics of CV storms, 2015, which is bringing some problems to expert forecasters. Look at our pal' Fred, still, there and probably back to TS status soon, after going through 25 to 30mph plus wind shear for days...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 462. yesterway:

I really don't know what all the controversy is about. Grace will be no different than all the others. For those of you who crave a US land falling major hurricane it simply is not going to happen this year in the Atlantic. I would recommend you turn your attention to the Pacific basin.


Gulf watching over the next five weeks as big changes in shear could happen and any front that dips into the Gulf bears watching. We've been watching an epic Pacific season. Hawaii has been playing dodge ball all season and has been amazing to watch as record SST's have made the Central Pacific see record activity. Northwest Pacific having near record activity too. SST's and SAL decrease has seen the tropical Atlantic blossom and more to come. Grace forecast to slowly gain latitude and shear and dry air should alleviate strengthening, but it's going to be a close call to whether she moves far enough North to feel these affects. If not then a hurricane looks very likely even if all the intensity models suggest otherwise right now. We see this every year here, someone suggest we enthusiasts want a land falling major. It's a false narrative. Come on man!
grace is good but her future could be loaded with pitfals
I see Grace's structure is improving and getting better as the day continues. Don't let the lack of intense convection fool you, it is typical for developing cyclones to wax and wane due to diurnal cycles. She looks prime to refire some more thunderstorms when DMAX comes back around and strengthen into at least a strong TS by Monday morning.

469. JLPR2
Quoting 459. HuracanTaino:

Betsy to Hugo, a long period of 33 years without direct hit, until Hugo, 1989. Of course we had lot of damages from indirect hits, such Donna's rain caused catastrophic damages, in 1960. Same goes with TS Eloisa, 1975, also Cat 5 David, followed by Frederick, 1979, both in the same week. Finally, Oct. 8, 1985, with TS, Isabel, causing the "Mameyes" tragedy, were 100 plus victim perished(estimates numbers), in a gigantic land slide. Then came the active period with direct hits, Hugo, Sept, 21, 1989, Hortence 1996, George, 1998,Jeanne, 2004, TS Kyle, 2008 and Subtropical OTTo, 2010, mentioned them for the billionaire's destruction. The last direct hit Irene, 2011, surprisingly becoming a cat 1, on top of the island.


Hugo was on Sept 18, Georges was on Sept 21 and I wouldn't count TS Kyle since it was a disturbance when it passed through our area, not a storm. Irene is confusing... it was technically a hurricane while it was over the island, but it made landfall as a TS and its hurricane force winds stayed offshore.

We also had Bertha(meh...) brush us last year.
Quoting 469. JLPR2:



Hugo was on Sept 18, Georges was on Sept 21 and I wouldn't count TS Kyle since it was a disturbance when it passed through our area, not a storm. Irene is confusing... it was technically a hurricane while it was over the island, but it made landfall as a TS and its hurricane force winds stayed offshore.

We also had Bertha(meh...) brush us last year.
Well was only using my memory on the dates, but the message is clear, Kyle did cause some floods plus Irene was declared a Hurricane while crossing the island, wasn't talking about the wind, and believe me here in the mountains were felt quite strong. Eloisa, is a fact and I'm old enough to recount what happened, and the human tragedy, that's why I mentioned it. , Mameyes as well caused by a weak TD ,Isabel, tiny, but unforgettable...
,
Quoting 439. Hurricanes101:



????? Does not look like Grace is struggling to me
Intense convection going in too many different directions. She needs to focus.