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TD 7 dies; 93L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2012

Tropical Depression Seven is dead, ripped apart by moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots this Saturday morning. The storm was too small and fragile to survive the shear, thanks to dry air from the Sahara that had infiltrated the storm environment. None of the reliable models forecasts that TD 7 will regenerate as it tracks westwards across the Caribbean over the next four days. The remains of the storm should arrive in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 7.

93L
A large tropical wave(Invest 93L) is located in the Eastern Atlantic about 300 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara surrounding 93L, which has infiltrated into the storm. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week, as the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts dryness at mid-levels of the atmosphere will increase during the next five days. None of the reliable computer models develop 93L during the coming seven days, and the storm is expected to move west-northwest and then north, recurving well to the east of Bermuda. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. JLPR2
Martinique has all kind of W winds now.

From the W, SW and WNW. There is a weak circulation passing between Dominica and Martinique.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Uh... I was thinking more like better profile going into the ECar, better chances in the WCar... not really expecting much to happen after crossing the Lessers...

Gotta agree w/ your analysis of the ECar conditions, though I do have one caveat. To me it seems the bulk of the energy from this Twave is going rather north of the track Ernesto took, which imo could mean slightly slower trades. Haven't looked at a recent analysis to verify, though...


My same thoughts, Baha! Also, higher SSTs further north as it traverses Carib.

Could be a temporary flare-up, sure. Just not sure what to make of this.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm talking about wave in Africa going clockwise instead of counterclockwise


Whaaa???
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Does my computer have a virus now! Dangit!!


Probably not, it came up as a risky site in my antivirus. If anything was on there, it'll probably be blocked if you have antivirus of your own. Run a scan just to make sure.
1005. SLU
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Wind reports from east Martinique showing 45 mph sustained winds!!


Where did u get that info from?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah but not all of it just the very NE section ok give me a few mins I going to make a graphic it will make it easier for you to under stand and for me to explain


ok here is a quick graphic



and also look at these images side by side and you will see the movements
9hrs ago
Link

6hrs ago
Link

3hrs ago
Link

now
Link
Quoting hydrus:
Someone told me that the reefer keeps getting better and better there in P.R.
it is turning clockwise
1008. scott39
Quoting tennisgirl08:


PORN!!! AHHHHH!!! DO NOT OPEN!!!!!
You were too LATE!!! I almost puked! I HATE YOU FN TROLL!!!!!


A rare summer storm blasted the Arctic this week, beginning off the coast of Alaska, and moving over much of the Arctic Sea for several days before dissipating.

Although the storm itself was uncommon %u2014 NASA%u2019s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., estimates that there have only been about eight similarly strong August storms in the last 34 years %u2014 the real news behind the meteorological event is the stunning Aug. 6 photo taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA%u2019s Aqua satellite. The cyclone is spinning toward the North Pole, with Greenland visible in the bottom-left of the image. Scientists are left speculating what the impact of such a storm could be.

From NASA:

Arctic storms such as this one can have a large impact on the sea ice, causing it to melt rapidly through many mechanisms, such as tearing off large swaths of ice and pushing them to warmer sites, churning the ice and making it slushier, or lifting warmer waters from the depths of the Arctic Ocean.

%u201CIt seems that this storm has detached a large chunk of ice from the main sea ice pack. This could lead to a more serious decay of the summertime ice cover than would have been the case otherwise, even perhaps leading to a new Arctic sea ice minimum,%u201D said Claire Parkinson, a climate scientist with NASA Goddard. %u201CDecades ago, a storm of the same magnitude would have been less likely to have as large an impact on the sea ice, because at that time the ice cover was thicker and more expansive.%u201D


Read more: http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/08/10/unusual-summer -storm-blasts-the-arctic/#ixzz23IpCLUdQ
I hope everybody learned their lesson about clicking on links.
Quoting SLU:


Where did u get that info from?


Temperature: 77 °F
Dewpoint: 73 °F
Humidity: 85%
Wind: ESE at 35.7mph
Pressure: 29.95in
Precipitation: -in/hr
Daily Precip.: undefinedin

Link
Well, admin moved that post very quickly... very glad I didn't click on that link.
1013. scott39
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hope everybody learned their lesson about clicking on links.
What are you talking about LESSON?!?! Links are posted on here ALL OF THE TIME!
1014. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hope everybody learned their lesson about clicking on links.


XD

Noticed the missing n, didn't even bother wondering were the link led to. xD
Quoting KoritheMan:
For what it's worth...

18z GFS, at 168 hours:



12z Euro, at the same time:



The latter is much weaker and farther south, but extrapolation of the pressure fields in these models suggests they are seeing the same system. Same general synoptic pattern, too.

Bears watching.


I realize this post could use some clarity, lol. I'm talking about the closed isobar over the northern Gulf on the GFS. Actually turned it into a tropical cyclone on the 18z run.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I hope everybody learned their lesson about clicking on links.


I never clicked on it, so there.
Quoting bappit:
A vigorous wave can have tropical storm winds. Happens somewhat often. Not sure how the NHC handles that, vaguely remember warnings issued for winds before for waves.

The pouch people might say it actually is a closed circulation in a Lagrangian coordinate system (which I read is not really Lagrangian strictly speaking). I think there is an argument to be made that with the thing moving so fast the air has to circulate pretty fast around the moving center of circulation to be sensible as a west wind.
Don't they usually have some statement like HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SUNDAY in the outlook?

Interesting re. the pouches... haven't checked that website much this season for some reason....
Quoting JLPR2:
Meanwhile in the EAtl...
Gee,you don't suppose it has a closed circulation with an anti-cyclonic outflow already and it isn't even numbered????
Quoting KoritheMan:


I realize this post could use some clarity, lol. I'm talking about the closed isobar over the northern Gulf on the GFS. Actually turned it into a tropical cyclone on the 18z run.


So, could be a storm in the Gulf by next weekend?

Are we thinking this could be exTD7?
1020. Drakoen
Quoting beell:


Evenin' Drak.

West?


The upper level trough axis to the west of the blob.
1021. JLPR2
Winds are shifting to the West in Dominica. I'm so confused... XD
1022. bappit
A ship in the vicinity has been reporting 38-40 knot winds from the south east for over two hours now. (From the National Buoy Data Center web site.)
1023. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


I realize this post could use some clarity, lol. I'm talking about the closed isobar over the northern Gulf on the GFS. Actually turned it into a tropical cyclone on the 18z run.
Could the ex TD7 wind up in the GOM and redevelope?
Quoting tennisgirl08:


So, could be a storm in the Gulf by next weekend?

Are we thinking this could be exTD7?


Following the 850 mb vortex on the GFS, it does appear to be the remnants of TD7.
Quoting scott39:
What are you talking about LESSON?!?! Links are posted on here ALL OF THE TIME!


I always open the links when I see they are from a trusted blogger. I just missed the lack of an "N" on his name.

Dangit! That was both traumatic and now my comp probably has viruses.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Following the 850 mb vortex on the GFS, it does appear to be the remnants of TD7.


Hmmm...interesting.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


I always open the links when I see they are from a trusted blogger. I just missed the lack of an "N" on his name.

Dangit! That was both traumatic and now my comp probably has viruses.


Always mouse over the URL. If it's questionable, don't click it.
1029. bappit
Quoting BahaHurican:
Don't they usually have some statement like HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SUNDAY in the outlook?

Interesting re. the pouches... haven't checked that website much this season for some reason....

Indeed they do, but this is a bit more than a passing squall I think. I've seen three hourly reports from a ship for winds from 38-40 knots from the SE. Seems to be a sustained event.
1030. JLPR2
Quoting seer2012:
Gee,you don't suppose it has a closed circulation with an anti-cyclonic outflow already and it isn't even numbered????


Not so sure it has a circulation but it does have a nice anticylone with it.
I kinda wonder abt pple who do stuff like that... I mean, some may think us sad for discussing wx at midnight on Saturday night, but posting porn? that's just pathetic...

Just so you won't have to go back a page...

18z GFS, 168 hours:



12z Euro, 168 hours:



Closed isobar over the northern Gulf approaching Louisiana on the GFS. Euro also sees a weak low, but sees it in the Bay of Campeche. Most likely, this is related to the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven. This is a pretty fickle consensus though, since it wasn't there on earlier iterations of the GFS, and as far as I know, not on the Euro either.
1034. scott39
Quoting tennisgirl08:


I always open the links when I see they are from a trusted blogger. I just missed the lack of an "N" on his name.

Dangit! That was both traumatic and now my comp probably has viruses.
Yea me too. I will have to watch alot of TV before I go to sleep tonight.
Quoting scott39:
You were too LATE!!! I almost puked! I HATE YOU FN TROLL!!!!!


ROFL!!
hey guys what the hell are you going on about I did not post a link to any porn excuse my language but WTF is going on
Quoting KoritheMan:


I never clicked on it, so there.


I never noticed... learned about it from comments....
1038. SLU
I'm starting to get some "good" winds in St. Lucia now. The airport just recorded a gust to 37mph but in my area it just started gusting to about 45mph.
1039. JLPR2
Well that's enough weather obs for me. XD

BBL.
415 canehater1 I think every one was hesitant to dismiss 7's chances (as was the NHC) because we just watched Ernesto stay alive through impossible conditions.

I'm still reluctant to call exTD.7 dead cuz I can't figure out how it became a TropicalDepression in the first place -- bad MJ0, high travel-speed, low spin, dry air, and strong trade winds -- let alone how it survived for as long as it did.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys what the hell are you going on about I did not post a like to any porn excuse my language but WTF is going on


Of course you didn't. An imposter did. Someone made a name almost identical to yours, except he removed the "n" from "cayman".
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys what the hell are you going on about I did not post a like to any porn excuse my language but WTF is going on
Someone was faking being you.
How in the hell is this troll still allowed to be here. He's been in tropics chat for hours. He's been giving links to his bs for awhile too. Now he's sending porn??? Wow, had no idea he was that petty and pathetic. Kori, I told this dolt that as soon as you got on, you'd be giving him the riot act most likely.
1045. Gearsts
COC is gona get expose soon.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys what the hell are you going on about I did not post a like to any porn excuse my language but WTF is going on


Not you! You have an imposter. The troll posted a link to a very disturbing porn site. Ewwww!
If our old WunderYakuza has had anything to do with advancements in blog systems, we may now have a bot that pulls similar links automatically... or at least red-lines them... and if we don't, perhaps we should...
1048. scott39
Never underestimate a vigorous viral wave like ex TD7.
00Z GFS is being consistant,,,,closed low in the central GOM in 162 HRS
OMG some IMPOSTOR

Weather Chat: TropicalAnalystwx13, Dragod66, wxchaser97, wunderkidcayma, Bluestorm5, Slamguitar, BanFagg2, Join Weather Chat!

oh no I think I skipped a heart beat ahhhh going in to heart attack
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
00Z GFS is being consistant,,,,closed low in the central GOM in 162 HRS


Interesting.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


So, could be a storm in the Gulf by next weekend?

Are we thinking this could be exTD7?
If you follow he 0z gfs run, it looks as though xtd7 makes it's way into the gulf and forms some sort of storm. The run is at 165 hours now. Last 18z run formed a ts at 180hours
1053. DDR
A second round of feeder band activity is begining to take shape over Trinidad after this morning's deadly rains that devastated north western areas.
1054. scott39
Oh yea, never underestimate how low a sick, pathetic waste of human skin and oxygen....loser troll can go!
Quoting Gearsts:
COC is gona get expose soon.
I don't think so I think convection will build all over the area plus I think multiple LLCOC forms untill a strong decent one forms
Quoting Clearwater1:
If you follow he 0z gfs run, it looks as though xtd7 makes its way into the gulf and forms some sort of storm. The run is at 165 hours now. Last 18z run formed a ts at 180hours
What about the "major" approaching the Antilles at 240+ hours?
Curiosity Crater valley looks like earth...

Gordon, Helene, & Isaac 180 hrs. GFS:

1059. SLU
Quoting DDR:
A second round of feeder band activity is begining to take shape over Trinidad after this morning's deadly rains that devastated north western areas.


Yes i was keeping my fingers crossed that won't happen but it seems the tail of ex-TD 7 could lash the island tonight.
Yep, 2 gfs model runs in a row and a system in the gulf flares up at 180 hours. NOw let's see where it has it going this time.
Ernesto-Hector in the EPac... at least he's not a cross-dresser...

Looks like Guadaloupe, Dominica, and Martinique are getting the worst of it for now...

204 hrs. Debby part II:

Quoting Gearsts:
COC is gona get expose soon.

It isn't a tropical cyclone so you don't have worry now lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
What about the "major" approaching the Antilles at 240+ hours?
The 00z gfs is only up to 189 at the moment. and no major in site
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?ti me=2012081112&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
Quoting Clearwater1:
Yep, 2 gfs model runs in a row and a system in the gulf flares up at 180 hours. NOw let's see where it has it going this time.


Model consistency only a week out does grab my attention.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
204 hrs. Debby part II:

Exactly. The high pressure is even near the same position as with Debby. . . and pushes it across FL. Of course that is 7 days out. But then again, it is the GFS
convection starting to pop on the W side of the islands now and that blob to the E of the islands is now reaching across the island into the E carib sea
The GFS is showing some funky Ridge pattern with the system in the North Atlantic looping back around:

It seems to me that we are about to enter an active phase in tropical activity. The Madden-Julian Oscillation phase is aimed to come back in our basin, that will provide more upward motion over our basin. True, El Nino will cause trade winds in the Caribbean but I suspect storms this year will go north of the Caribbean pull an Ernesto through the Caribbean. This isn't a normal El Nino year with activity. True, 3 of our named storms where of non-tropical development but I view this as a bad reason to discount seasonal activity as a whole (think of 2011), they where still tropical cyclones and one of them managed to hit Hurricane status. The CSU, TSR, and NOAA all recognize this fact and have raised their seasonal predictions. This active El Nino year is due to the anomalous warm winter we experienced IMO, that leads to increased and above average amount of TCHP. This is something 2009 did not have.




Anyways, the GFS is showing many tropical waves with the chance to develop - ex-TD7 developing in the Gulf thanks to a weakness in the ridge, 93L managing to develop into a Tropical Storm and several more tropical waves developing off the coast of Africa. El Nino is never a guaranteed season killer until October, right now we're heading right for the peak. Everything is telling me that we're facing a good chance of several Cape Verde systems by the end of August. We're not entering a quite phase by any means - we're entering the real and dangerous part of Hurricane season.

One thing though is that a -NAO phase will be dominate over the Atlantic, leading to a weaker yet more southern A/B high, that will allow the chance for re-curvature, but in the event that timing is against us - troughs not arriving on time there is a chance that well.. we could be in for some interesting times ahead. I have that feeling I did before Irene happened that something bad might happen, I just can't see us going an incredible 7 years without a major landfall (if you really honestly believe that Ike wasn't a major hurricane.}

In short, watch TD-7 as there is a small chance that the trough will be able to pull the system towards the Gulf and we could see it become a weak TS, but I doubt anything more. 93L also bares watching as well to become a threat down range. We're at 6-2-0, very impressive numbers for mid-August and the ride has just begun.

It only takes one. Timing is key, we stress this cliche fact again and again because it is true.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Ernesto-Hector in the EPac... at least he's not a cross-dresser...



not that there is anything wrong with that


lol
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Model consistency only a week out does grab my attention.
The model run is now complete and shows a ts crossing central Fl in about 7 days. Basically the same as 18z run, only a little further south.
CyberTeddy as always a very detailed and coherent analysis.
I think a much better LLCOC is developing where the convection is starting to pop and is backed up by 850mb vort I'd put it somewhere around 13N-14N 62W-63W
Quoting GTcooliebai:
CyberTeddy as always a very detailed and coherent analysis.


Thanks! I try not to get jumbled into the many technicalities of forecasting and just try to give basic understanding to people who are new here.
Will that ULL coming from the NNE of 07L merge with it? Or take the convection away?




Quoting CybrTeddy:

I just can't see us going an incredible 7 years without a major landfall (if you really honestly believe that Ike wasn't a major hurricane.}

I was talking to my brother about this yesterday. There were a total of 7 major hurricane landfalls in the lower 48 in 2004-2005 alone. If you were to spread those numbers over subsequent years to present, the overall trend does not seem all that unusual. In fact, 7 majors in 7 years is still above the long-term average.
384 hrs. notice the pattern and the first wave gives us a hint of where it might be heading count them 4 systems total and a Cape Verde storm:

Quoting sunlinepr:
Will that ULL coming from the NNE of 07L merge with it? Or take the convection away?



Great outflow channel!

I know they say there is not a close low, and this and that, but for me these Island are experienced tropical storm conditions, without any accurate information, I wonder what's going on the surface...I know is not a TD anymore, but it certainly looks like a very healthy one !!!
Quoting sunlinepr:
Will that ULL coming from the NNE of 07L merge with it? Or take the convection away?





niether

there is curently a upper level anticyclone on EX-TD 7 lower half moving WNW upper level shear becoming favorable because of this the shear accociated with the ULL in the atlantic is moving WNW-NNW out of its way so no I don't think it will merge and no I do not think it will take convection away but maybe help out flow
Well lets see if the Euro and Canadian will jump on board with the prospects of a Gulf storm.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well lets see if the Euro and Canadian will jump on board with the prospects of a Gulf storm.
For the sake of my long-awaited chase, I hope they do.

Oh um, I mean... *whistles*
light winds in martinique out of the SW 11km/h and winds out of the NE in Dominica 32km/h
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ernesto-Hector in the EPac... at least he's not a cross-dresser...

HA neither was Joan-Miriam or Irene-Olivia.
Quoting KoritheMan:

For the sake of my long-awaited chase, I hope they do.

Oh um, I mean... *whistles*
CMC had something going before everybody else...
1091. JLPR2
The wave at the coast of Africa is exhibiting the same sort of clockwise rotation that TD 7 showed a few days ago.

Either a freaky coincidence in the movement of clouds or the anticyclone above it is really strong providing such awesome ventilation that it seems to be spinning the wrong way...

Quoting KoritheMan:

For the sake of my long-awaited chase, I hope they do.

Oh um, I mean... *whistles*


For the sake of everyone's sanity lets hope they don't send it to Texas! Lol.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I was talking to my brother about this yesterday. There were a total of 7 major hurricane landfalls in the lower 48 in 2004-2005 alone. If you were to spread those numbers over subsequent years to present, the overall trend does not seem all that unusual. In fact, 7 majors in 7 years is still above the long-term average.


True, but we've really been seeing Central America get hammered with storms for over half a decade now, while sheltering into a false sense of security that 2004-2005 is all we're ever going to get. A lot of those countries are very poor that have been slammed and really have gotten a cold shoulder in the media. At least in America, we are able to avoid minimum loss of life with organized evacuations, even though I would much, much rather a storm go away from land period. Property can be repaired, but lives cannot be brought back and we're all human.
Quoting JLPR2:
The wave at the coast of Africa is exhibiting the same sort of clockwise rotation that TD 7 showed a few days ago.

Either a freaky coincidence in the movement of clouds or the anticyclone above it is really strong providing such awesome ventilation that it seems to be spinning the wrong way...


hmm maybe that wave stuck to long too clost to the equater probable thinks it in the S Hem.
1096. DDR
Quoting SLU:


Yes i was keeping my fingers crossed that won't happen but it seems the tail of ex-TD 7 could lash the island tonight.

This usually happens,but on saturated grounds nothing good can come out of this rain.
CyberTeddy is right on. Season is going to explode, still a 70/30 chance of a major making landfall imo. Still seeing an invest declared off the east coast of Florida tomorrow. TD-07 may be back in the game. 30-50% chance of re-development if conditions continue as is tonight.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


For the sake of everyone's sanity lets hope they don't send it to Texas! Lol.
Well to be fair, Texas on up to the Central parts of the US could use the rain, so a Tropical Storm wouldn't be that bad, unless it sat there for days.
1099. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hmm maybe that wave stuck to long too clost to the equater probable thinks it in the S Hem.


XD

Actually coming off fairly north around 15N. Will be interesting to see if it tries to develop.
Although the GFS seems to think it will die in SAL, moistening the environment for the next one.
CyberTeddy - very nice analysis. Is there any reason why you think the remnants of exTD7 will only produce a TS in the Gulf? Not stronger?

The SSTs are STEAMING right now in the Gulf and shear hasn't been a problem.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well to be fair, Texas on up to the Central parts of the US could use the rain, so a Tropical Storm wouldn't be that bad, unless it sat there for days.


Oh yeah I know. Not wishing a storm on anybody else. And a well placed tropical storm could do some good. I was just talking about the whole Debby model battle. :)
Ya Kori, try to whistle it off. We all know your a wishcaster hoping to chase the big one. :))) You pumping out a prognosticating blog tonight?
Quoting BahaHurican:
CMC had something going before everybody else...


True it did. Consistent model runs from several models showing something in the Central Gulf. Concerning.

Quoting tennisgirl08:
CyberTeddy - very nice analysis. Is there any reason why you think the remnants of exTD7 will only produce a TS in the Gulf? Not stronger?

The SSTs are STEAMING right now in the Gulf and shear hasn't been a problem.


At this time - lack of model support and the lack of a real closed circulation, look at Ernesto for example.

It could happen though, you never know. I'm just not impressed with the model support, maybe if it takes a drastic change I will change my tune. TD7 doesn't strike me as a threat to become a powerful Hurricane though.
One more thing about Ex-TD7, the GFS is predicting a ULAC to develop right about where ex-TD7 would be in 96hrs.
1106. JLPR2
One could quite easily confuse Hector-Ernesto with our new TW. XD





Of course, one is no match for the other.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


At this time - lack of model support and the lack of a real closed circulation, look at Ernesto for example.

It could happen though, you never know. I'm just not impressed with the model support, maybe if it takes a drastic change I will change my tune. TD7 doesn't strike me as a threat to become a powerful Hurricane though.


Yeah, I see your point. I always just take the models as signs of where upcoming storms may occur. Until something has formed, I tend to discount the models - as far as intensity is concerned.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
One more thing about Ex-TD7, the GFS is predicting a ULAC to develop right about where ex-TD7 would be in 96hrs.


Remind we what a ULAC is again? Implications?
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Remind we what a ULAC is again? Implications?


Upper Level Anti-Cyclone, basically a clockwise rotation that allows outflow and all around nasty stuff to take place if a low pressure is over it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Obvious the wave is getting squashed from west side and sheared pretty bad. It looks squished!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
One more thing about Ex-TD7, the GFS is predicting a ULAC to develop right about where ex-TD7 would be in 96hrs.

hmm and right now it has a ULAC just on the southern half of EX-TD7
Quoting mcluvincane:



Just a temporary flare up, it's getting sheared pretty hard as one can see on the satellite frames
Well, it's pretty obvious is undergoing shear, even though is decreasing by the hour, but that doesn't mean that can't obtain tropical Storm status or a TD again, not the first time that happpens!!! Right?
Quoting JLPR2:
One could quite easily confuse Hector-Ernesto with our new TW. XD





Of course, one is no match for the other.


totally agree with you
very similar



Seems like in the last frames, Convection spreads and starts to go away with that ULL NNE...

The un-numbered blob on the coast of Africa shows possible rotation with up to 20kt winds with the partial image of the 0315utc ascat image.Is it possible for a closed system to develope over land when in close proximity to the ocean?
See you all tomorrow for more excitement no doubt. Good night all.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
One more thing about Ex-TD7, the GFS is predicting a ULAC to develop right about where ex-TD7 would be in 96hrs.


look in the SE caribbean

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


look in the SE caribbean



Displaced to the SW, providing some shear but that could change over time.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like in the last frames, Convection is going away with that ULL NNE...


nah its just pushing its way through the islands into the E Caribbean sea
Well, bedtime.... expecting rains tonight.... Last time it appeared that Ernesto was going to bring heavy rains and it was dry when I woke up....

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Displaced to the SW, providing some shear but that could change over time.

yes but it is moving WNW
Off to bed guys!

I leave you with this one thought...

exTD7 is NOT Ernesto Part Deux
1124. JLPR2
Buoy 42060
16.333 N 63.500 W

Quoting tennisgirl08:
Off to bed guys!

I leave you with this one thought...

exTD7 is NOT Ernesto Part Deux

yes but it is closse to ernesto part deux if not is part deux anyway have a good night
Ernie def had a set on him.
Mystery sinkhole to be checked for radioactivity
Source: KASA
Author: SHEILA V KUMAR
Date: August 10, 2012

Source: KASA

Reporter: Its also not clear, however how far that fracture could have traveled and its impact on the overall integrity of the top of this massive salt dome.

[...]

We ve requested multiple interviews with the Department of Natural Resources. So far none have been granted.

PDF report Link





Louisiana Test Results: Radioactive thorium, lead, and more detected in sinkhole samples (VIDEO)

Louisiana Sinkhole: Radioactive waste in cavern may have exceeded radiation limits Up to 20 cubic feet pumped inside
Quoting JLPR2:
Buoy 42060
16.333 N 63.500 W


I think the LLCOC is just S of there near 13N/14N
1129. JLPR2
At 2am we continue with a pair of 10s.


FOX: Nuclear reactor halted on “suspicion of cracks”; “We have found anomalies,” says Belgium official — AFP: Possible cracks in reactor vessel?

Belgium Halts One Nuclear Reactor On Suspicion of Cracks – Regulator
Source: Fox Business
Author: Alessandro Torello (Geraldine Amiel contributed)
Date: August 8, 2012

Belgium has temporarily shut one of its seven nuclear power reactors on suspicion that one of its components might be cracked, the country’s atomic power regulator said Wednesday.

“We have found anomalies,” said Karina De Beule, spokesman for the ACFN, the federal agency for nuclear control.

The agency is “evaluating these anomalies, if they can cause cracks,” De Beule said

[...]
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
550 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE LOW IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS...AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Canadien takes Ex TD 7 TO Belize
1133. JLPR2
Looks like it is going to be windy tomorrow in my area.

Quoting JLPR2:
At 2am we continue with a pair of 10s.

I still kinda disagree with the 10% for EX-TD 7 kinda cause I think it will start to get stronger by tomorrow afternoon by that time it should be higher


I remember we were arguing about the steering speeds well on the new steering map (0300) utc show speeds droping from 65-66W so expect decrease in forward speed

anyway I am off to bead and I'll be up earlerer in the morn


As does the EURO
1136. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I still kinda disagree with the 10% for EX-TD 7 kinda cause I think it will start to get stronger by tomorrow afternoon by that time it should be higher


I remember we were arguing about the steering speeds well on the new steering map (0300) utc show speeds droping from 65-66W so expect decrease in forward speed

anyway I am off to bead and I'll be up earlerer in the morn


Slowing down would help Ex-TD 7.
Sleep well!
Quoting JLPR2:
At 2am we continue with a pair of 10s.



and with that post later all be back in the am

good night
Quoting JLPR2:


Slowing down would help Ex-TD 7.

it would help alot that was one of the things that stoped RI with ernesto

now I am really gone I don't think I can even make it to the bed i'll just pass out sleeping on the ground
1139. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

it would help alot that was one of the things that stoped RI with ernesto

now I am really gone I don't think I can even make it to the bed i'll just pass out sleeping on the ground


LOL!
1140. JLPR2
Well, I'm out as well.

Goodnight!

Tropical Storm Hector is intensifying and I doubt it is just a minimal tropical storm anymore.

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Canadien takes Ex TD 7 TO Belize
Does it develop it ?
Once again I blog to utter nothingness. Oh well, enjoy it anyway. :P

Quoting CybrTeddy:

Property can be repaired, but lives cannot be brought back and we're all human.
Indeed. I'm sure that's something that the families of the 20,000+ people that were killed by Mitch are quite cognizant of.
Quoting KoritheMan:

For the sake of my long-awaited chase, I hope they do.

Oh um, I mean... *whistles*


Only one closed isobar...YAWN hahahah
Quoting KoritheMan:

Indeed. I'm sure that's something that the families of the 20,000+ people that were killed by Mitch are quite cognizant of.
I didn`t loose family with Mitch but my Mom loose two cousins with hurricane Fifi in 1974.

Quoting louisianaboy444:


Only one closed isobar...YAWN hahahah
But where there's consensus, there's potential. Besides, it's not like Gulf storms even have a chance to recurve. Also, we're in an El Nino year, so if we're going to get a chase, it's most likely going to come from a homegrown storm like that one.

Quoting allancalderini:
I didn`t loose family with Mitch but my Mom loose two cousins with hurricane Fifi in 1974.
I'm sorry.
Quoting KoritheMan:

But where there's consensus, there's potential. Besides, it's not like Gulf storms even have a chance to recurve. Also, we're in an El Nino year, so if we're going to get a chase, it's most likely going to come from a homegrown storm like that one.


I agree i'm just being crazy...did you see my brief video forecast today on facebook?

Quoting louisianaboy444:


I agree i'm just being crazy...did you see my brief video forecast today on facebook?
No I didn't. I didn't even know you did video forecasts. Let me go check out that.
Quoting KoritheMan:

No I didn't. I didn't even know you did video forecasts. Let me go check out that.


Well I haven't learned how to put graphics on it yet and stuff its a work in progress..it was mostly an experimental thing to see if it would work

Quoting louisianaboy444:


Well I haven't learned how to put graphics on it yet and stuff its a work in progress..it was mostly an experimental thing to see if it would work
I could help you with the graphics and whatnot.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I could help you with the graphics and whatnot.


I would love that I'm thinking I would have to download a program that would let me overlap my video with graphics
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm sorry.
Don`t worry was a long time ago I am worried that a storm is going to come near us and cause heavy rain people is forgetting what happen with Mitch after Ernesto pass near here and just leave a little of rain people are thinking that hurricanes would not be that much of a problem like before 7 out of 10 people in here say they will not evacuate and loose their things that is why some people die with td 16 in 2008.
can ex td-7 fend off the dry air and slow down enough to gain strength? and if it can form something potent.....what would the trough do that is expected to drop down from canada clear into alabama later this week?
Quoting odinslightning:
can ex td-7 fend off the dry air and slow down enough to gain strength? and if it can form something potent.....what would the trough do that is expected to drop down from canada clear into alabama later this week?
I think it would move into CA but if it can reach the northern gulf we might need to watch it.
Quoting allancalderini:
I think it would move into CA but if it can reach the northern gulf we might need to watch it.


i agree plus i watched levi's breakdown and thats what the long range models wanna do with td-7 (certainly not sticking up for long range models) but they are suggesting w/ mjo swing later in the month + remnants + other possible variables (a strong low to the east of the GOM as a close but no cigar fish storm that opens up the GOM) it will be interesting.

also hoping for all of you in texas and in the midwest....let's pray for monsoonal convection coming up from ex-ernesto to stop your drought for gosh sakes......
wassup good blog i see td 7 gone anything really popping? and where the ATL friend MJO?
Hector/Ernesto:

I wonder how many systems on average, that go into Central America, are able to cross over? I'd love to see some stats.

On another subject, this cool air aloft over the Easter Central U.S. should increase the vertical instability over the GOM and the Northwestern Caribbean, and just in time for the MJO pulse.

1161. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-122200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BAY AND SEA
BREEZES TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINS
WHICH CAN CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES ON THE ROADWAYS AND MINOR URBAN
FLOODING.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AGAIN TODAY
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

PRC
1162. LargoFl
.......................................Good Morning Folks ..looks to be another Hot and Humid sunday with the usual possible afternoon shower or two...have a Great day everyone
Morning everyone, today's my b-day and the day I go out of town. Seems like not too much stuff weather wise should happen in the next 5 days but if I see anything exciting cool t-storm/waterspout I'll take a picture.
Quoting LargoFl:
.......................................Good Morning Folks ..looks to be another Hot and Humid sunday with the usual possible afternoon shower or two...have a Great day everyone
Largo... According to the local news West Palm Beach set a new record for August 11th with 4.35 inches of rain... Quite a storm in the evening.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Morning everyone, today's my b-day and the day I go out of town. Seems like not too much stuff weather wise should happen in the next 5 days but if I see anything exciting cool t-storm/waterspout I'll take a picture.
Happy Birthday wx.Enjoy your day
697 winter123: Can someone please explain to me why TD 8E is not named "TD Ernesto"?
700 TropicalAnalystwx13: The NHC states that the low-level circulation dissipated over Mexico.


Lack of a low-level pathway.


706 GTcooliebai Oh yeah wikipedia is on our side. Ernesto is still active. Ernesto-Hector.

Our side writes the hurricane wiki.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Off to bed guys!

I leave you with this one thought...

exTD7 is NOT Ernesto Part Deux

Ernesto was lucky he was Big compared ti ex-td7. If ex-td7 had of been bigger, it might of been able to survive.
morning guys hey Aussie btw down by you its what now spring summer or still winter


anyway EX-TD7 is doing well convection starting up in the E caribbean shear is on the decrease on top a bit slower speed in front and there may be some sort of circulation with it just waiting for a few more visible images (sunlit images)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning guys hey Aussie btw down by you its what now spring summer or still winter


anyway EX-TD7 is doing well convection starting up in the E caribbean shear is on the decrease on top a bit slower speed in front and there may be some sort of circulation with it just waiting for a few more visible images (sunlit images)


Still winter down here, 19 days to go til Spring.
morning
wave exiting the african coast southeast of the cape verdes could end up being the next invest.
surface map is indicating that a low pressure is forming with EX-TD7

notice the 12 isobar look at it compaired to the wave and the surface obs would indicate curculiation however maybe open on SW and S side
with the return of the MJO to our region and the parade of Twaves over africa and what is seen heading for the continent from the indian ocean it appears we may be heading for a torrid 8 wks in the tropical atlantic
1173. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
.......................................Good Morning Folks ..looks to be another Hot and Humid sunday with the usual possible afternoon shower or two...have a Great day everyone


Mostly Cloudy
82°F
28°C

Humidity94%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer29.97 in (1014.6 mb)
Dewpoint80°F (27°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index93°F (34°C)

Last Update on 12 Aug 5:53 am EDT

Good morning to everyone and Largo I don't think there's any doubt that it's going to be hot today already a heat index of 93 at 5:53am LOL!
Quoting AussieStorm:


Still winter down here, 19 days to go til Spring.

cool so how was winter so far

Miami NWS Disco

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO START LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION AND
THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT TREND
CONTINUING INTO MID- WEEK. THEN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...COULD BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
Quoting stoormfury:
with the return of the MJO to our region and the parade of Twaves over africa and what is seen heading for the continent from the indian ocean it appears we may be heading for a torrid 8 wks in the tropical atlantic
DOUGHT IT VERY MUCH
been.a.nice.summer.e.cen.fl
Morning all. I guess today is the day where we don't use punctuation. I have to admit to skipping over those. Another hot day here in Louisiana.
Good morning. Looks like we're about to get another West Pac storm.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 131.3E TO 17.3N 125.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
120630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
130.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 134.0E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 130.2E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND A PREDOMINANT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), SUPPORTED BY A 120108Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY
PASS, HAS EMERGED. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND THE FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE
SOUTHWEST HAVE NOTICEABLY DEEPENED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 28-30 CELSIUS, ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE ONGOING
CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130700Z. //
NNNN

Little bit of Gulf action in 10 days on the 6z GFS:

1179 aislinnpaps: I guess today is the day where we don't use punctuation

Internet access via cell-phone.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thanks! I try not to get jumbled into the many technicalities of forecasting and just try to give basic understanding to people who are new here.
....and we appreciate your efforts!
AL, 07, 2012081112, 133N, 579W, 30, 1011, DB
AL, 07, 2012081118, 133N, 599W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081200, 133N, 614W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081206, 137N, 629W, 25, 1011, WV
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalWaveAL07 for 12August6pmGMT
MinimumPressure was 1011millibars
MaxSusWinds was 25knots(29mph)46km/h
Vector was 285.4*WNWest@17.4mph(28km/h)

MQS-Mustique :: SVD-St.Vincent :: BGI-Barbados :: SLU-St.Lucia :: SDQ-SantoDomingo

Copy&paste svd, mqs, 12.834n61.193w, bgi, 13.335n59.613w-13.375n59.616w, 13.085n59.462w, slu-13.89n60.883w, 13.708n60.947w-13.555n60.942w, sdq, 13.3n57.9w-13.3n59.9w, 13.3n59.9w-13.3n61.4w, 13.3n61.4w-13.7n62.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting aspectre:
1179 aislinnpaps: I guess today is the day where we don't use punctuation

Internet access via cell-phone.


aspectre, I know you usually do use punctuation, no problem! Because it was you, I did read yours. *S* It's the small paragraphs of those that don't think they need to that are seemingly becoming popular.
Quoting aspectre:
AL, 07, 2012081118, 133N, 599W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081200, 133N, 614W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081206, 137N, 629W, 25, 1011, WV

YES about time

thank you
Quoting aspectre:
AL, 07, 2012081118, 133N, 599W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081200, 133N, 614W, 25, 1011, WV
AL, 07, 2012081206, 137N, 629W, 25, 1011, WV

though I dissagree with the coordinates but still its a wave the cordinates don't relly matter yet but still something is going on near 63W-67W 12N-16N via sat and sfc obs
1188. icmoore
A man struck by lightening in the Bay area Thurs. night and lived to tell about it. He's one of the lucky ones.

BARTOW--
Despite burned hands, a concussion and being a little shaken up, Kyle Cook feels pretty lucky to be alive after being hit by lightning. The Polk County man said a storm moved through Bartow on Thursday night as he was at his job site at the intersection on Hwy. 98 just before 11 p.m.


"We're looking at Bay News 9, the weather radar on our laptop, and we saw it coming in closer," Cook said. When he stepped out of his vehicle and into the rain to sweep asphalt with equipment, a bolt of lightning struck feet away. "All the sudden this lightening just smack!" he recalled. "I remember getting thrown back, and that's the last I remember, until waking up and I'm seeing all my buddies just standing around me with their jaws to the floor."

With one hand on metal equipment, Cook said the current traveled through one hand and out the other. He was rushed to the hospital where his "heart wasn't acting right [and] my body was numb and tingling and burning all at the same time," Cook said.

Cook hopes his experience will drive home just how dangerous certain thunderstorms can be in the Bay area. "Only by the grace of God I'm still here," he said. "The first person I called was my wife. I don't ever cry. I was in tears and I realized how fragile life can be."


If this is the low center of ex TD7,then is more north in latitude.

Link
by thw way anyone has any links to surface obs of those islands just off od SA near 65W and no I am not talking about the ABC islands I'm talking about the ones E of that
G'mornin'. 3rd week of August is still my prediction for first big hurricane threat. I've been predicting it since Debby. Of course if I'm correct, it'll be 30 percent climatology and 70 percent luck!
Flatline...................

Someone get the paddles.



Morning All, lol.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

cool so how was winter so far


This winter has been dryer and cooler than the last 2 years, Typical El Nino winter.
Quoting icmoore:
A man struck by lightening in the Bay area Thurs. night and lived to tell about it. He's one of the lucky ones.

BARTOW--
Despite burned hands, a concussion and being a little shaken up, Kyle Cook feels pretty lucky to be alive after being hit by lightning. The Polk County man said a storm moved through Bartow on Thursday night as he was at his job site at the intersection on Hwy. 98 just before 11 p.m.


"We're looking at Bay News 9, the weather radar on our laptop, and we saw it coming in closer," Cook said. When he stepped out of his vehicle and into the rain to sweep asphalt with equipment, a bolt of lightning struck feet away. "All the sudden this lightening just smack!" he recalled. "I remember getting thrown back, and that's the last I remember, until waking up and I'm seeing all my buddies just standing around me with their jaws to the floor."

With one hand on metal equipment, Cook said the current traveled through one hand and out the other. He was rushed to the hospital where his "heart wasn't acting right [and] my body was numb and tingling and burning all at the same time," Cook said.

Cook hopes his experience will drive home just how dangerous certain thunderstorms can be in the Bay area. "Only by the grace of God I'm still here," he said. "The first person I called was my wife. I don't ever cry. I was in tears and I realized how fragile life can be."




I myself am a lightning strike survivor. 25yrs ago.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by thw way anyone has any links to surface obs of those islands just off od SA near 65W and no I am not talking about the ABC islands I'm talking about the ones E of that




hey guys I think we have a circulation developing



and is backed by the 12Z 850mb vort map
Quoting AussieStorm:


I myself am a lightning strike survivor. 25yrs ago.

Tell us a story! :]

JK you don't have to. :|

GM all! :D
Quoting AussieStorm:



if you are think where that red mark is no not there near more like 11N 65W those islands
1199. TXCWC
Hummmm...0z NOGAPS AND 06Z GFS SHOWING BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPMENT IN 6 DAYS - 0Z GFS showed north Central Gulf development by day 7: NOT EXACTLY LONG RANGE FORECAST BY EITHER MODEL- UPDATE: NOTE THE 0Z EURO AS WELL BELOW

0Z Nogaps


06Z GFS


0Z Euro - NOTICE THE LOW NEAR THE SAME LOCATION? ONLY HAS IT JUST INLAND - thus never really dev it
1200. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think we have a circulation developing



and is backed by the 12Z 850mb vort map


Morning, WKC, I see you're still hanging tough with old 07. I really don't see a low developing, and the wave is still moving at a pretty good clip. Seems like the most likely outcome is for the wave to continue WNW and maybe feed some more moisture up to the Gulf later this week, but it's hard to see environmental factors allowing for much more. Keep on top of it, though, stranger things have happened.
Good morning , I think ex TD7 LLC is around 16N/66W, just my take though.
NAM is suggesting a pressure drop may happen on TD7 remnants again over the next few days, but still doesn't make it back to TD status by the end of the run.
1203. TXCWC
A closer look at the 0Z EURO ALSO SHOWS A LOW NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE in 7 days (along with the Nogaps and 06Z GFS) - the reason I think it does not really dev it though is Euro has it over land

0Z EURO
GFS has a TD pass through Texas and Oklahoma near the end of the run. If that were to verify it would be like the best weather news in months for the drought stricken areas.
Quoting Articuno:

Tell us a story! :]

JK you don't have to. :|

GM all! :D


I actually told my story on the Barometer Bob Show in 2010. I'll try and find it and post a link to it for you.
1206. sar2401
Aussie, you got struck by lightning? Do tell. I survived a near miss when I was 10. Close enough to singe my hair and eyebrows and knock me out for a minute. I use it as an excuse for why I'm so weird today. :)
HOLY CRAP...

CMC says Ernesto's remnants, now Hector, is going to turn north and hit California...

Is that out to lunch? The official takes it nowhere near that direction, and that only happens like once every 25 or 30 years...
Quoting AussieStorm:



I actually told my story on the Barometer Bob Show in 2010. I'll try and find it and post a link to it for you.

Here is a direct link to the show. I am on in the 2nd half.
1209. TXCWC
Quoting RTSplayer:
GFS has a TD pass through Texas and Oklahoma near the end of the run. If that were to verify it would be like the best weather news in months for the drought stricken areas.


A closer look at the 0Z Nogaps and 0Z Euro shows the same low in or near the Bay of Campeche by days 6 or 7 - see my post below
Meh, sorry for so many posts...


I see that the Euro somewhat agrees with the NAM on remnants of 7.

It tries to redevelop it and gets it up pretty well again, but then kills it again SE of Jamaica and SW of Hispaniola...

Weird development behaviors we're seeing this year...

live in the E. Caribbean, die in the west, restrengthen right near land?!

Completely backwards from climatology.
also from 12Z shear maps show shear is decreasing in front of EX-TD 7 and also moving NW out of its way also there is a bubble of lower shear S of Hispaniola that is curving around that lip of higher shear thats moving NW
Quoting sar2401:
Aussie, you got struck by lightning? Do tell. I survived a near miss when I was 10. Close enough to singe my hair and eyebrows and knock me out for a minute. I use it as an excuse for why I'm so weird today. :)

I was in a coma for 3 day and was in hospital for 3 weeks.
Take a look at PR radar and see how misleading the satellite really is about TD7 remnants.



Radar

The rotation is actually due south of PR and appears to have at least some spiral bands still in tact, though almost none of this shows up on satellite.



The seemingly naked swirl on satellite actually has some rain bands on radar.
1214. sar2401
Interesting ship report:

Location: 16.9N 63.1W
08/12/2012 1200 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 22.9 kts
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.8 °F
Dew Point: 72.5 °F
Water Temperature: 84.9 °F
Visibility: 11 nmi

Looks like ex-07 still has a little punch.
1215. LargoFl
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
what is stopping ex-ernesto from jumping back into the gulf?
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning , I think ex TD7 LLC is around 16N/66W, just my take though.


Good morning

Ex 7 has good rotation at the 700, 850 and 925 mb levels coupled with a weak surface low of 1011 mbs. Shear is too high in the Eastern Caribbean for it to redevelop there and historically it would be most unusual for it do so anyway.

If it is to have any chance of closing off again it will come at 75 to 80 West and beyond. In the meantime it is holding its own quite nicely. Buoy 42059 will give us some info in the not too distant future as it is located 15 N and 67.5 W
1217. LargoFl
Quoting AussieStorm:

I was in a coma for 3 day.

parden if you don't mind me asking whats it like to be in a coma because like I know what its like to be dead well not really cause I was small but yes I did die once but came back
Quoting AussieStorm:

Here is a direct link to the show. I am on in the 2nd half.

There must be something wrong with that mp3..it cuts the thing short..
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

parden if you don't mind me asking whats it like to be in a coma because like I know what its like to be dead well not really cause I was small but yes I did die once but came back

It was like I was asleep.
1221. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:

I was in a coma for 3 day and was in hospital for 3 weeks.


Dang! Glad you made it through that one. I had my near miss in 1956, when they knew very little about the dangers of lightning strikes. I was in the emergency room for a couple of hours and then they sent me home. I lucked out, a nearby transformer took the direct hit.
Quoting Articuno:

There must be something wrong with that mp3..it cuts the thing short..

Just right click on the link and select Save link as.....
1223. LargoFl
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

parden if you don't mind me asking whats it like to be in a coma because like I know what its like to be dead well not really cause I was small but yes I did die once but came back
.................way back when, I came down with.salmoella(sp?)..anyway, i didnt know it, had it for days and days while it worked on my insides..finally collapsed and went into a coma myself..woke up in the hospital..6 days later and didnt know a thing..doc said i just about died..but didnt, just kept hanging on by a thread.....you know..i didnt feel a thing..didnt even know it happened until i woke up
1224. LargoFl
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning , I think ex TD7 LLC is around 16N/66W, just my take though.


Quoting RTSplayer:
Take a look at PR radar and see how misleading the satellite really is about TD7 remnants.



Radar

The rotation is actually due south of PR and appears to have at least some spiral bands still in tact, though almost none of this shows up on satellite.



The seemingly naked swirl on satellite actually has some rain bands on radar.


Basically in the area where I said the center is.
Quoting LargoFl:
.................way back when, I came down with.salmoella(sp?)..anyway, i didnt know it, had it for days and days while it worked on my insides..finally collapsed and went into a coma myself..woke up in the hospital..6 days later and didnt know a thing..doc said i just about died..but didnt, just kept hanging on by a thread.....you know..i didnt feel a thing..didnt even know it happened until i woke up

I woke up and my mind was blank. Like someone had wiped my memory. I didn't know anyone or anything.
1227. VR46L
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning , I think ex TD7 LLC is around 16N/66W, just my take though.


You are probally correct...JMO



1228. sar2401
Quoting RTSplayer:
HOLY CRAP...

CMC says Ernesto's remnants, now Hector, is going to turn north and hit California...

Is that out to lunch? The official takes it nowhere near that direction, and that only happens like once every 25 or 30 years...


Looks like a pretty strong high pressure system is progged to develop later this week off southern California. Unless Hector turns into a decent hurricane, it's hard to see the moisture getting through the high. They have had a pretty good monsoonal flow, but that should also get cut off this wek.,
Brrr.

James Spann8:35 AM - Public
As cool as 51 degrees in Alabama this morning (that was the low at Black Creek, NE of Gadsden).... look for a sunny day today with low humidity and a high in the upper 80s...
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

Ex 7 has good rotation at the 700, 850 and 925 mb levels coupled with a weak surface low of 1011 mbs. Shear is too high in the Eastern Caribbean for it to redevelop there and historically it would be most unusual for it do so anyway.

If it is to have any chance of closing off again it will come at 75 to 80 West and beyond. In the meantime it is holding its own quite nicely. Buoy 42059 will give us some info in the not too distant future as it is located 15 N and 67.5 W


well shear is not as high as it was befor and it is also continuing to weaken as the higher shear move NW-NNW

take a look at the shear maps at now 3hrs ago 6hrs ago 9hrs ago and 12hrs ago and also look at the loop Link and skip most of the frames till you have about 3-4 frames running and loop you will see the orangy red turn to orangy yellow turn to yellow turning into yellowie green and you will also notice that lip moving NW-NNW and also the blues and greens now taking over the system
1231. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:

I woke up and my mind was blank. Like someone had wiped my memory. I didn't know anyone or anything.


Aussie, I imagine you've read the story of Roy Sullivan, the NPS ranger that was struck seven times by lightning. We're now finding out that lightning strike survivors have many problems as they age as a result of all the electrical disruption to the nerve pathways. I hope you are doing OK now.
I bet that mlc causes quite a burst of convection in the SE GOM over the next 24hrs,should be interesting if the area moves ashore,possible flooding somewhere south of I4 corridor in FL.
I'll believe 93L turns north when I see it.

The size of that rotating air mass makes me doubt any such turn any time soon, particularly since the minimum pressure is still so high.
1234. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Brrr.

James Spann8:35 AM - Public
As cool as 51 degrees in Alabama this morning (that was the low at Black Creek, NE of Gadsden).... look for a sunny day today with low humidity and a high in the upper 80s...


Rats! I have to eat my shoe this morning. It got down to 64 in Montgomery. I didn't think it would get below 69 at best. The dryer and cooler air really feels nice. I wonder if I can find an old shoe that would taste OK with A1 Sauce. :)
Quoting sar2401:


Aussie, I imagine you've read the story of Roy Sullivan, the NPS ranger that was struck seven times by lightning. We're now finding out that lightning strike survivors have many problems as they age as a result of all the electrical disruption to the nerve pathways. I hope you are doing OK now.

Yeah, I do have a few problems. 1 side effect is, i can "feel" when a thunderstorm is around. My skin tingles and I get hypo, like I have been a shot of adrenaline.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


well shear is not as high as it was befor and it is also continuing to weaken as the higher shear move NW-NNW

take a look at the shear maps at now 3hrs ago 6hrs ago 9hrs ago and 12hrs ago and also look at the loop Link and skip most of the frames till you have about 3-4 frames running and loop you will see the orangy red turn to orangy yellow turn to yellow turning into yellowie green and you will also notice that lip moving NW-NNW and also the blues and greens now taking over the system


None of that changes what I said. The Eastern Caribbean is too hostile climatologically and currently. You will need to be patient to see what happens as it approaches and passes through 75W.
Quoting AussieStorm:

It was like I was asleep.

well atleast you are fine now

Quoting LargoFl:
.................way back when, I came down with.salmoella(sp?)..anyway, i didnt know it, had it for days and days while it worked on my insides..finally collapsed and went into a coma myself..woke up in the hospital..6 days later and didnt know a thing..doc said i just about died..but didnt, just kept hanging on by a thread.....you know..i didnt feel a thing..didnt even know it happened until i woke up

well thats nasty stuff but anyway well all had our thing but atleast we are alive today and arguing about the tropics and not dead or in coma

Quoting AussieStorm:

I woke up and my mind was blank. Like someone had wiped my memory. I didn't know anyone or anything.

btw how long did it take for you to remember people and things


Quoting stormpetrol:




Basically in the area where I said the center is.

I'd say abit further S

Quoting VR46L:


You are probally correct...JMO




maybe
Just a Ametuer. But I wanted to ask you guys about 93L. Is it POSSIBLE that it could go further west if it stays in a weakend state? I know most of the models call for it to re-curve...but general speaking the models have tougher times projecting the paths of weaker tropical cyclones. Just curious!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well atleast you are fine now


well thats nasty stuff but anyway well all had our thing but atleast we are alive today and arguing about the tropics and not dead or in coma


btw how long did it take for you to remember people and things



I'd say abit further S


maybe


Took me 2 weeks. I would remember a little each day, as if new connections in my brain were being made.
I think the low is closer to 15N and 64.5 W

If you run this loop in zoom and watch the low clouds it is easy to see two large spirals sweeping around. One comes from the NE across PR and the other can be seen coming in from the NW down to the ABC Islands. The focal point of the rotation is at the coordinates above which squares away with the leading edge of the deep thunderstorm complex.

The rotation seen near 16N is where the 925 mb vort is but the system is tilted in height due to shear from the SW
Quoting AussieStorm:

Here is a direct link to the show. I am on in the 2nd half.

hey there listened to the link but unfortunately it only plays for a few minutes and then ends. Ends with hin talking about the National Weather ctr in Norman, OK.
1242. msphar
a small thin rain band came through the southern side of Puerto Rico an hour ago. Nothing severe. Just some weather. Not enough to call squally accompanied with gusty winds.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, I do have a few problems. 1 side effect is, i can "feel" when a thunderstorm is around. My skin tingles and I get hypo, like I have been a shot of adrenaline.

well maybe thats a good thing you are a weather station to go lol

Quoting kmanislander:


None of that changes what I said. The Eastern Caribbean is too hostile climatologically and currently. You will need to be patient to see what happens as it approaches and passes through 75W.

accually it does because it is not TOO HOSTILE any more I think its safer to say it has weaken to HOSTILE or VERY NEAR TO HOSTILE anyway you want to put this but the fact still stands strong on my side SHEAR IS DECREASING plus this year Climo does not seem to be soo much of a factor this year it is a odd year this is
Note where the strongest surface convergence is located.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well maybe thats a good thing you are a weather station to go lol


accually it does because it is not TOO HOSTILE any more I think its safer to say it has weaken to HOSTILE or VERY NEAR TO HOSTILE anyway you want to put this but the fact still stands strong on my side SHEAR IS DECREASING plus this year Climo does not seem to be soo much of a factor this year it is a odd year this is


No need to shout.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, I do have a few problems. 1 side effect is, i can "feel" when a thunderstorm is around. My skin tingles and I get hypo, like I have been a shot of adrenaline.


I wonder if you get hyper because instinct kicks in and your adrenaline flows due to knowing what could happen since you've been struck?
From 25WPBF
Curious why all this rain is in the forecast? Here's why! An area of low pressure to our south is dumping all the moisture across the Florida peninsula. Look for plenty more storms in our forecast today... -Eric
1249. Patrap
..Tie dye on the highway, see the garlands in your hair
If you're going my way, come along
What a beautiful sky, we just had to stop and stare
See the beautiful colors fill the air..



1250. VR46L
Quoting wunderkidcayman:




accually it does because it is not TOO HOSTILE any more I think its safer to say it has weaken to HOSTILE or VERY NEAR TO HOSTILE anyway you want to put this but the fact still stands strong on my side SHEAR IS DECREASING plus this year Climo does not seem to be soo much of a factor this year it is a odd year this is


But look at this image, see all the dry air its heading into....

Quoting LargoFl:
Looks like another noisy day Largo
Quoting AussieStorm:


Took me 2 weeks. I would remember a little each day, as if new connections in my brain were being made.

well thats not too bad some people don't get it back till years some never do get it back so you are lucky

Quoting kmanislander:
I think the low is closer to 15N and 64.5 W

If you run this loop in zoom and watch the low clouds it is easy to see two large spirals sweeping around. One comes from the NE across PR and the other can be seen coming in from the NW down to the ABC Islands. The focal point of the rotation is at the coordinates above which squares away with the leading edge of the deep thunderstorm complex.

The rotation seen near 16N is where the 925 mb vort is but the system is tilted in height due to shear from the SW

I'll agree with you on that but maybe just a little bit more W near 65W/66W

Quoting SaladTosser:
Just a Ametuer. But I wanted to ask you guys about 93L. Is it POSSIBLE that it could go further west if it stays in a weakend state? I know most of the models call for it to re-curve...but general speaking the models have tougher times projecting the paths of weaker tropical cyclones. Just curious!


GFS 129hrs...



144hrs


156hrs...


192 hrs.... WOW!!!

Two outflow boundaries can be seen just South of PR where thunderstorms have collapsed due to dry air intrusion.

Quoting 954FtLCane:

hey there listened to the link but unfortunately it only plays for a few minutes and then ends. Ends with hin talking about the National Weather ctr in Norman, OK.

If you download the link via right clicking on the link and select save link as. I am on about 1hr 7mins.
Am I the only one getting these annoying Market News Videos advertisements?
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I wonder if you get hyper because instinct kicks in and your adrenaline flows due to knowing what could happen since you've been struck?

Its as if I get energy from the electrical energy in the air.
Out for now
Quoting Articuno:
Am I the only one getting these annoying Market News Videos advertisements?

Where you getting them, on here??
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well thats not too bad some people don't get it back till years some never do get it back so you are lucky


I'll agree with you on that but maybe just a little bit more W near 65W/66W



Till this day I can't remember anything of that day.


Nice 850mb vort.
Quoting kmanislander:


No need to shout.

sorry wasn't meaning to shout

Quoting VR46L:


But look at this image, see all the dry air its heading into....


ok it looks that way cause you need to loop it you will see that moisture is building in front and dry air is pushing away from it
Quoting LargoFl:
what is stopping ex-ernesto from jumping back into the gulf?
It's going the wrong way!
144HR
Quoting AussieStorm:

Where you getting them, on here??

Till this day I can't remember anything of that day.

Yes I am getting them on here.
Quoting AussieStorm:

If you download the link via right clicking on the link and select save link as. I am on about 1hr 7mins.


Got it, thanks!

Quoting Articuno:
Am I the only one getting these annoying Market News Videos advertisements?
do you have ghostery and adblocker installed?  i'm not getting any advertisement on this page.
They need to put a floater on the T-wave in East Caribbean. Maybe NHC is waiting for models to initiate latest update.
Link WV Loop
Quoting sar2401:


Rats! I have to eat my shoe this morning. It got down to 64 in Montgomery. I didn't think it would get below 69 at best. The dryer and cooler air really feels nice. I wonder if I can find an old shoe that would taste OK with A1 Sauce. :)


Why do you have to eat your shoe?
Quoting Articuno:

Yes I am getting them on here.

You need adblock
Quoting Articuno:

Yes I am getting them on here.

Why don't you just fork over $10 and join?
1179 aislinnpaps: I guess today is the day where we don't use punctuation
1182 aspectre: Internet access via cell-phone.
1185 aislinnpaps: It's the small paragraphs of those that don't think they need to that are seemingly becoming popular.

My point is that such writing ain't necessarily an affectation. For whatever reason, many people are deciding that they won't splurge on both an InternetServiceProvider and a CellPhoneService.
Cell-phones aren't conducive to typing out lengthy messages. And some are a true pain-in-the-derriere when it comes to capitalization and punctuation.
Quoting Chicklit:

Why don't you just fork over $10 and join?



Its not worth the money....
all you get is more radar and no ads....

Ad-block takes care of the ads
1273. VR46L
Quoting wunderkidcayman:<

ok it looks that way cause you need to loop it you will see that moisture is building in front and dry air is pushing away from it


You may have a point . I was looking at the GFS last two runs they both develop it in the bay of Campeche . The tracks were very interesting one was a Florida TS and the other was Texas I think around Matagorda Bay area. Goodness knows where the next GFS model will place it....
Do you have an opinion where its developes and where it goes afterwards
1274. Patrap
Good Morning. Looking at the am sheer chart, sheer wise, the Central Atlantic, Western Caribbean, and Gulf/Florida is very favorable at the moment but nothing there to develop. Only place with very hostile sheer is where Ex7 is at the moment.

The most glaring inconsistency out there, and certainly for this time of the year, is that the Central Atlantic, and particularly the ITCZ, has dried up. In fact, the ITCZ is "gone"........Gonna need some moisture out there at some point in the coming weeks before something can spin up from a CV wave.

Interestingly, we just went through a typical CV storm cluster, starting with Ernesto, which usually produces 2-3 storms and then there is usually a break (lull) before another cluster gets going. My point is, we might see development closer to home from frontal remnants in the short-term before we see another storm spin up from a CV wave.

Very weird to see this pattern in the Central Atlantic at the moment and it might have to wait until the MJO reaches the Central Atlantic to see if it can offset the SAL issues but the MJO will reach the Western Caribbean and Gulf before it gets out there hence the closer to home scenario.
ok this is what I think from now till the system reaches near 68W/70W we will see slow and weak redevelopment of the system (maybe strong low to very weak TD status mostly leaning on strong low) and after that we will see faster and stronger developmet more so when it gets closer to 75W (maybe being in the weak to moderate TS status by the time it reaches 75W) also sattelite presentation I expect to get better however still be a little disorganised with a bit of shearing on it northern sides and a small it of dry air problems as the system trys to filter it out in front of the system this is just my take on it and what could happen I see conditions now better than it was 12 hrs ago and a lot better than nearly 24hrs ago and I expect it to get better as today and tomrrow progresses
Rain coming in to S FL now
anyway, have a great day everyone. Will have to check back about ex-007
Ex7 is in the same position now that Ernesto was last week; it's getting sheered to the death by that big ULL at 30N-56W in the Northern Central Atlantic.

WV Loop.

Link

ULLs/SAL/Faster Trade Winds is the story of the Central Atlantic for the moment; Tutt Rules.


Quoting Chicklit:
They need to put a floater on the T-wave in East Caribbean. Maybe NHC is waiting for models to initiate latest update.
Link WV Loop


Pointless to do that.
Quoting Chicklit:
They need to put a floater on the T-wave in East Caribbean. Maybe NHC is waiting for models to initiate latest update.
Link WV Loop

yep maybe

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Looking at the am sheer chart, sheer wise, the Central Atlantic, Western Caribbean, and Gulf/Florida is very favorable at the moment but nothing there to develop. Only place with very hostile sheer is where Ex7 is at the moment.

The most glaring inconsistency out there, and certainly for this time of the year, is that the Central Atlantic, and particularly the ITCZ, has dried up. In fact, the ITCZ is "gone"........Gonna need some moisture out there at some point in the coming weeks before something can spin up from a CV wave.

Interestingly, we just went through a typical CV storm cluster, starting with Ernesto, which usually produces 2-3 storms and then there is usually a break (lull) before another cluster gets going. My point is, we might see development closer to home from frontal remnants in the short-term before we see another storm spin up from a CV wave.

Very weird to see this pattern in the Central Atlantic at the moment and it might have to wait until the MJO reaches the Central Atlantic to see if it can offset the SAL issues but the MJO will reach the Western Caribbean and Gulf before it gets out there hence the closer to home scenario.

I have to disagree with part of what you are saying about shear in the caribbean more so on EX TD7

you must have not been looking at the shear maps as long as I have and as close as I have because shear is not as hostile as before (when we could have called it "Too Hostile" for real) and it is weakening plus that thin lip of higher shear on the N half of the system is moving NW-NNW away from it shear is decreasing
glare.the.mdr.region...very.little.wind
1250 VR46L: But look at this image, see all the dry air its heading into....

Was there ever a time when (now ex)TD.7 wasn't heading into dry air?
1282. wunderkidcayman 10:33 AM EDT on August 12, 2012

No disagreement with your observation either; just a healthy difference of opinion in the short term. That Atlantic Tutt cell seems to be moving West along with TD7 at the moment but I see your point in that the sheer tendancy is decreasing (below) out ahead of the wave. I am just wondering whether wave will survive (in any viable fashion with persistent convection) the next 24 hours.

Link

If it does, conditions will be more favorable downstream.
1286. Mikla
I believe this has been linked before... but a good source of info..
Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
1287. VR46L
Quoting aspectre:
1250 VR46L: But look at this image, see all the dry air its heading into....

Was there ever a time when (now ex)TD.7 wasn't heading into dry air?


No, true but I cant be convinced of development in the Caribbean. Yes if it survives as a wave in the Gulf.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep maybe


I have to disagree with part of what you are saying about shear in the caribbean more so on EX TD7

you must have not been looking at the shear maps as long as I have and as close as I have because shear is not as hostile as before (when we could have called it "Too Hostile" for real) and it is weakening plus that thin lip of higher shear on the N half of the system is moving NW-NNW away from it shear is decreasing


You're right. Shear isn't as bad as it was, but it's still way too hight for any re-development of 07L at the time. Nothing is going to happen with it until it passes the longitude of Jamaica at the earliest.
Quoting VR46L:


Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok this is what I think from now till the system reaches near 68W/70W we will see slow and weak redevelopment of the system (maybe strong low to very weak TD status mostly leaning on strong low) and after that we will see faster and stronger developmet more so when it gets closer to 75W (maybe being in the weak to moderate TS status by the time it reaches 75W) also sattelite presentation I expect to get better however still be a little disorganised with a bit of shearing on it northern sides and a small it of dry air problems as the system trys to filter it out in front of the system this is just my take on it and what could happen I see conditions now better than it was 12 hrs ago and a lot better than nearly 24hrs ago and I expect it to get better as today and tomrrow progresses


I hope this answers it

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Ex7 is in the same position now that Ernesto was last week; it's getting sheered to the death by that big ULL at 30N-56W in the Northern Central Atlantic.

WV Loop.

Link

ULLs/SAL/Faster Trade Winds is the story of the Central Atlantic for the moment; Tutt Rules.




thats where you are wrong
the ULL is not shearing it to anything close to death compaired to last night it weakening/there is not that much SAL in the areato its W in front of it-there is more dry air than SAL however the dry air is moving W of the system and the dry air is weakening in front of the system so it trying to beat the dry air out so far so good/ trades are weakening/ or slowing in the caribbean its slow than before so not too much problems there
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep maybe


I have to disagree with part of what you are saying about shear in the caribbean more so on EX TD7

you must have not been looking at the shear maps as long as I have and as close as I have because shear is not as hostile as before (when we could have called it "Too Hostile" for real) and it is weakening plus that thin lip of higher shear on the N half of the system is moving NW-NNW away from it shear is decreasing


I can no longer take you seriously. Let me give you a suggestion before I put you on ignore...get inside a boat, row it a couple hundred miles from the coast of Africa and enjoy yourself. Anyone who wishes for destruction should be allowed that "satisfaction" alone. Go find your Ivan.
1256 Articuno: Am I the only one getting these annoying Market News Videos advertisements?

Nope, another WUber had the same complaint yesterday. Quoting myself:
Targeted advertising. Curiosity piqued by the BBC's TopGear LeaderBoard, I looked up a buncha exotic sports cars... then got swamped with video-ads from high-end luxury car dealers.
Which is how Google makes BIG bucks from letting customers search for free.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


You're right. Shear isn't as bad as it was, but it's still way too hight for any re-development of 07L at the time. Nothing is going to happen with it until it passes the longitude of Jamaica at the earliest.

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away

Even if wind shear is low, ex-TD Seven is going to struggle significantly with dry air and trade winds. There is no denying that.
1289. wunderkidcayman 10:49 AM EDT on August 12, 201

It is really not cool to get so aggressive with someone (you are wrong) just because of a difference of opinion. Especially on a blog where folks are supposed to discuss things in a civil manner and the real fact that no one on here knows exactly what is going to happen with any given tropical system...... Quite frankly, it's all a matter of educated guesses most of the time (and lots of uneducated guesses).

Have a Good Day...........I'm Out.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away
Trade winds almost kill Ernesto let say they don`t kill ex td 7 but at least it will be beat up pretty badly and it would likely move into CA before it redevelops.
Quoting jascott1967:


I can no longer take you seriously. Let me give you a suggestion before I put you on ignore...get inside a boat, row it a couple hundred miles from the coast of Africa and enjoy yourself. Anyone who wishes for destruction should be allowed that "satisfaction" alone. Go find your Ivan.

I am not asking for destruction and hell no with Ivan
look I am telling you what is really happening out there and you are being blind-sighted to this that is why you can take me seriously and if it does play out the way I'm saying then what your going to say what I didn't say it was going to play out or its not going to happen well the go ahead at least you are believing in something but what I know its not what is happening and it not the truth


untill conditions change from what they are curently indicating which is better conditions then I'll stand by what I said

1297. Patrap
Somebody send dat Guy some periods and capital letters.

: )
Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like in the last frames, Convection spreads and starts to go away with that ULL NNE...



Is that what happened? Not a single drop of water here....


Quoting jascott1967:


I can no longer take you seriously. Let me give you a suggestion before I put you on ignore...get inside a boat, row it a couple hundred miles from the coast of Africa and enjoy yourself. Anyone who wishes for destruction should be allowed that "satisfaction" alone. Go find your Ivan.



he doesnt want destruction...
93L has a floater up on it now:

New TD in the West Pac. Forecast to brush the northern Philippines then hit China as a strong TS.





They sure have had a lot of landfalls out there this year.
Quoting kmanislander:


No need to shout.


It's Tourettes.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away



stop jumping the gune there is a lot of dry air a head of ex TD 7 and it will have too put up with trade winds ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS are not CONDUCIVE for any kind of REGENERATION in tell may be the gulf of MX
1304. Patrap
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Even if wind shear is low, ex-TD Seven is going to struggle significantly with dry air and trade winds. There is no denying that.

struggle yes not denying that significantly no I would say that trad wind are slowing down and dry air is not as dry as early this morning

I'm not saying it will not get any dry air or fast trades but I am saying it won't be as much as you people think

Quoting allancalderini:
Trade winds almost kill Ernesto let say they don`t kill ex td 7 but at least it will be beat up pretty badly and it would likely move into CA before it redevelops.

the only thing that you missed out was that the trades were much more stronger with ernesto than with EX-TD7 trades are a whole lot slower than what ernesto had and trades are a bit weaker than last night so keep that in mind
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no not really I seen storms development in 30-40kts of shear so it is not still too high and it will start before 75W-76W more at 96W/70W


look guys condition aren't as bad as you think and you are putting out to be so far for this morning it is doing quite well for being in 20kt shear

shear is falling and it will do better in the lower shear and but it proving what it can do in 20kt I think it wants to do better in lower shear and looking at the shear maps that ain't too far away


I'm beginning to think you are wishcasting.... You are the most agressive on development on every storm this year, and you seem to think that everything will develop or intensify even in 30kts of SAL-laden shear. Please, think more about your forecasts before you make them.
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.



NOP
Quoting Patrap:
Somebody send dat Guy some periods and capital letters.

: )
Stilll wouldn't know how to use them :-)
ok this is what I'm going to do for me and you I am going to sit back for while and I suggest you guys do the same anyway sit back and watch what happen and keep a close eye on the environmenteal conditions around it any changes will it be noted sound reasonable enought to you guys
inre 1296/etc wunderkidcayman... Yeesh. Tone down your rhetoric. It ain't never "I'm 100% right, and everybody who disagrees on any detail is 100% WRONG" when it comes to weather prediction.
Just give your assessment, and let others give theirs.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.

NOT YET
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NOT YET



yes it is its not refourming right now in tell the gulf if even at all
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

struggle yes not denying that significantly no I would say that trad wind are slowing down and dry air is not as dry as early this morning

I'm not saying it will not get any dry air or fast trades but I am saying it won't be as much as you people think


the only thing that you missed out was that the trades were much more stronger with ernesto than with EX-TD7 trades are a whole lot slower than what ernesto had and trades are a bit weaker than last night so keep that in mind

Did we not just go through this with Ernesto? All buoys in the East and Central Caribbean are reporting a very east to west flow of at least 15 knots. This is very conducive, as we saw with Ernesto, and with nothing to disrupt the trade winds ahead of the disturbance, I'm willing to bet they're actually stronger than what Ernesto faced.
1315. Mikla
Ex TD7 has a real battle if it were to redevelop:

Pluses:
- Moving to lower shear
- Warm water
- Still has some loose/broken circulation

Minus:
- Moving like a freight train
- LOTS of dry air in front (and moving fast makes it worse)
- Will probably never get above 20N and will interact with land before it has any chance to make use of a better environment
- No model support

But this is weather... and it is called forecasting.. so...
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes it is its not refourming right now in tell the gulf if even at all

no it will do in the caribbean
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.

Their Tropical Weather Outlook only goes out to 48 hours as you know...conditions are not expected to be favorable during that time. However, even I am on the redevelopment bandwagon if this gets into the NW Caribbean and Gulf like the GFS indicates.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NOT YET

I thought you were planning on sitting back for a while. Or was 30 seconds enough?

Conditions are not conducive for development. TD 7 is far less defined than even Ernesto was, and we saw how he struggled. Just my opinion of course, though since I don't forecast redevelopment my opinion is probably wrong to you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Did we not just go through this with Ernesto? All buoys in the East and Central Caribbean are reporting a very east to west flow of at least 15 knots. This is very conducive, as we saw with Ernesto, and with nothing to disrupt the trade winds ahead of the disturbance, I'm willing to bet they're actually stronger than what Ernesto faced.

nope ernesto had stronger trades



anyway can we all agree on what I said just a while ago

repeating
ok this is what I'm going to do for me and you I am going to sit back for while and I suggest you guys do the same anyway sit back and watch what happen and keep a close eye on the environmenteal conditions around it any changes will it be noted sound reasonable enought to you guys
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no it will do in the caribbean





ex TD 7 wont do any thing in tell the gulf like the gfs says things are not favorable in the Caribbean but may be buy time it gets too the NW Caribbean and gulf thing may be come a little more favorable
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Their Tropical Weather Outlook only goes out to 48 hours as you know...conditions are not expected to be favorable during that time. However, even I am on the redevelopment bandwagon if this gets into the NW Caribbean and Gulf like the GFS indicates.

It's definitely possible it develops in the Gulf (though I don't think it will) but conditions definitely aren't good enough in the Caribbean like WKC is saying.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New TD in the West Pac. Forecast to brush the northern Philippines then hit China as a strong TS.





They sure have had a lot of landfalls out there this year.


Looks like another SAOLA.
Even though a lot of them hit as TS , they still bring large rainfall to areas very prone to flooding, landslides, mudslides - and - we may never really truly know the true extent of damages.
Quoting Patrap:
We still OK with the sun? Ive come to like the sun, and I like electricity even more.
Hows that gash on the sun's surface doing?
you guys should sit back and watch too

ok now all enought of the argueing and let is sit back and watch
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD
ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TD 7's not redeveloping.


Not in 48 hours at least, I'd watch it though if it gets into the Western Caribbean. The GFS is predicting an ULAC to develop as I mentioned last night.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
am even thinking the nhc could even drop ex 7 for a little in tell it finds some in more favorable too re fourm if the trade winds dos not rip the wave a part
There should be no problem between us ALL...

Presentations, discussions and forecasts here should not separate US....

The solution?

Everyone here has the liberty to express their forecasts.... No matter how weird they sound...

Who's going to prove it right or wrong?

TIME

TIME WILL BRING THE TRUTH....
Hen communicating through the written word, commas and periods are essential. At the very least, please try to recognize individual thoughts and attempt to distinguish them with a period. Also, and just as important, there are a few key words that must be spelled correctly: To and Too. There, Their and They're. Then and Than. Please do better.


TINY DUST SPECKS COULD HAVE BIG EFFECT ON HURRICANES

Satellite image of Saharan Air Layer outbreak moving over Africa on March 3, 2004, where vast amounts of Saharan dust clearly can be seen from space.Oct. 13, 2006 Never underestimate the power of something small. Researchers are finding that Saharan dust storms containing tiny specks of dust are linked to suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic. (Click satellite image for larger view of Saharan Air Layer outbreak moving over Africa on March 3, 2004, where vast amounts of Saharan dust clearly can be seen from space. Click here for high resolution version. Image courtesy of NASA.)

Jason Dunion, a hurricane researcher at the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory's Hurricane Research Division in Miami, Fla., and his colleagues at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, studied the past 25 years of satellite data. They found that during times of intense hurricane activity, the large clouds of dust that periodically blow westward from the Saharan Desert are relatively scarce. In years when there were fewer hurricanes, the dust storms were stronger and tended to spread over much of the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.

"The research conducted by Dunion and his colleagues is ..............

Link
ok noting change in conditions 15Z

shear map came out shear still weakening that lip of higher shear is geting thiner the 30kt are now dissipearing and continues to move WNW-NW
5-10kt starting to build more in the E caribbean shear tend. is also droping

vort at 850mb still good
vort at 700mb still good
vort at 500mb still need working on

lower convergence continues to build

steering continues to show W ward movement speed are a bit slower

ok end of update with conditions for 15Z

(this is all I'll be posting for w while this type stuff
no it wrong or this or that just what you see amd maybe some small comments on what I see
other than that mothing else)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no it will do in the caribbean


My feeling is that TD7 has a chance of redevelopment in the extreme western Carribean where trade winds slow down and air piles up and creates lower convergence and upper divergence! Wind shear is also low in that area and the TCHP is high!! The GFS is hinting at redevelopment in the BOC or GOM and i think this is a reasonable solution!! Remeber Ernesto never really got his act together until just before landfall on the Yucatin!! My best forecast is western Carribean or GOM,,,,not before!!
TN had a cool morning too:

A very cool start across the Cookeville area this morning as temps were in the 50's for the second morning in a row. We dropped to a low of 52.7° (the record low was 49° in 1964), which is the coolest morning reading since the sixth of June when we had a low of 50.6°.
1334. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
TN had a cool morning too:

A very cool start across the Cookeville area this morning as temps were in the 50's for the second morning in a row. We dropped to a low of 52.7° (the record low was 49° in 1964), which is the coolest morning reading since the sixth of June when we had a low of 50.6°.
I had 54 degrees here in Rock Island...Refreshing to say the least after a monster heat wave.
So what are everyone's thoughts on the Mississippi nearly drying up near Memphis?

They said it is normally 3miles wide there, and now the water level is so low that it is only 0.3 miles wide.

I figure that must cut the flow rate to about 5% of what it is supposed to be.


How are we going to manage cargo transports if this gets too dry?

It will take several new rail roads to make up the difference if the river dries up and stays dry, and that's just a start...grain elevators and other companies will have to install totally new systems for loading cars instead of barges...