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TD 6 Continues to Develop; Where Were News Media during Louisiana Flood?

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 3:52 PM GMT on August 17, 2016

Tropical Depression Six formed on Tuesday evening in the remote waters of the Central Atlantic about 700 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed that TD 6 had a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that were not particularly vigorous, but the storm was well organized, with good low-level spiral banding. Wind shear was light, 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm enough for development: 27°C (81°F). Water vapor satellite imagery showed that TD 6 was in a moist environment on its southern flank, but dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) was along the northern side of the storm, interfering with development. Overall, these conditions are favorable for some modest development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD 6.

Forecast for TD 6
Steering currents favor a northwesterly motion at about 10 - 12 mph for TD 6 the remainder of the week. This track will likely take the system too far to the north for it to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, though we can’t rule out a threat to Bermuda yet. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model showed moderately favorable conditions for development through Friday, with wind shear light to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 27°C (81°F.) In its 11:00 am EDT update on TD 6, the National Hurricane Center projected that the depression would become Tropical Storm Fiona later on Wednesday. However, beginning on Friday, the storm is expected to encounter a very dry air mass and high wind shear near 20 knots, which should cause weakening. The European model predicts that TD 6 will dissipate this weekend, which is certainly a possibility.

More African waves coming
A series of tropical waves will emerge from the coast of Africa during the next week, and we will have to watch these for development as they track westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic. The models have been inconsistent in their handling of the track and potential development of these waves over the past few days, though the Wednesday morning runs of the GFS and European models agreed that a tropical wave due to come off of Africa on Saturday might develop by early next week.


Figure 2. David McNeely (left) and Jason Schexnayder walk through a flooded street in Sorrento, LA, as an early-morning fog blankets the area on Wednesday, August 17, 2016. Image credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images.

Slow recovery and big questions in Louisiana as flood waters recede
As the immediate emergency subsides in southeast Louisiana, residents are dealing with a massive clean-up effort and wondering how the past weekend’s flooding turned out to be so disastrous. An estimated 40,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed by flooding, with 20,000 people rescued from high water and 10,000 in shelters, in what is likely to be a billion-dollar-plus disaster. Enormous rainfall was the obvious trigger, as detailed in our posts of the last several days. Even in a state as wet and flood-prone as Louisiana, some places are hit more regularly than others. Many of the areas flooded in this event had not been under water in living memory, which added to the shock and pain of this event.

A long-planned diversion project designed to channel water a few miles westward from the Comite River to the Mississippi River just north of Baton Rouge might have kept thousands of homes in the Baton Rouge area from flooding, as reported Tuesday in the Baton Rouge Advocate. The canal would have diverted water from the Comite before that river’s record crest had a chance to pass through northeast parts of the Baton Rouge area. In addition, since the Comite joins with the Amite River near hard-hit Denham Springs, the canal would have reduced major flooding there and downstream as well. Taxpayers in three parishes approved a property tax more than a decade ago to fund the canal, and some progress has been made, but state and federal funding to date has been insufficient to complete the project, according to the Advocate article. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has estimated that the canal would cost just over $200 million--which could end up on par with the component of damage that resulted from the canal’s absence. As was the case with Hurricane Katrina in 2005, delays in flood control ended up exacerbating the toll from flooding in the suffering of a state dealing with multiple other co-factors, including rising sea levels, a coastline plagued with subsidence, and a climate more prone to intense rainfall.


Figure 3. Historic flooding in Port Vincent, along the Amite River southeast of Baton Rouge, was captured on Sunday, August 14, in an aerial photography mission carried out by NOAA’s Remote Sensing Division. A useful NOAA website allows you to zoom in on a map of the hard-hit region and view additional photos. Mark Schleifstein, the award-winning environmental reporter from the New Orleans Times-Picayune, has compiled several science-oriented sources of flood imagery. Image credit: Courtesy NASA Earth Observatory.

Why did the flooding get so little national attention for days?
As floodwaters were spreading across southeast Louisiana, the emerging disaster got surprisingly little notice in U.S. news media. Although the Louisiana governor declared a state of emergency on Friday, the New York Times posted no staff-written articles on the crisis until Sunday evening, and it took until Tuesday for a Times reporter to reach the scene from New Orleans. “Many readers have expressed disappointment in the coverage,” said Times public editor Liz Spayd in a mea-culpa essay on Tuesday entitled “On Gulf Coast Flooding, The Times Is Late to the Scene.” In a Wednesday report titled “National media fiddle as Louisiana drowns,” Mike Scott from the New Orleans Times-Picayune highlighted the contrast between the huge amount of information and photos posted to social media during the flood (albeit much of it unvetted) with the lack of traditional coverage.

A whole host of factors led to a perfect storm of media inattention. Among the other events jostling for news coverage just this past weekend:
--the competition in Rio de Janeiro
--protests in Milwaukee
--the ongoing U.S. presidential race

Weekends are an increasingly challenging time to cover breaking news, especially during the peak vacation season of August. Newspaper and TV journalists across the U.S. have been hit with major job cuts over the last few years, leaving many newsrooms understaffed, as readers drop print subscriptions or cut the cable. On top of all this, the slow-moving low that triggered the Louisiana rains was not officially designated as a tropical cyclone and thus went unnamed. “The American public is somewhat conditioned to perceive a named or higher-category storm as more of a threat,” said Marshall Shephard (University of Georgia) in a thoughtful Forbes op-ed on Tuesday. Shepherd also notes the possible role of “flood fatigue” in the wake of many high-profile flash and river floods across the nation in recent months and years. Over the last 18 months, according to weather.com’s Jon Erdman, there have been 18 major flood events across the four-state region of Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Texas. “The number, extremity, and widespread nature of flood events has been incredible in this region,” said Erdman.

Heavy rains shift to Texas
Residual moisture from the soggy, slow-moving upper low continues to produce heavy rain across parts of south Texas, where flash flood watches are in effect. The downpours have been fairly scattered and disorganized, reducing any potential for widespread flooding. CoCoRaHS maps show that several pockets of 3” - 6” rains developed near San Antonio and north of Austin in the 24-hour period ending at 7 am CDT Wednesday. Toward the coming weekend, the preexisting moisture will combine with a seasonally strong cool front to produce several days of heavy rain in a belt from southwest Texas into the Dallas-Fort Worth area.


Figure 4. Precipitation totals projected for the 5-day period from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Wednesday, August 17, 2016, to 12Z Monday, August 22. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.


Figure 5. Danielle Blount kisses her 3-month-old baby Ember as she feeds her while they wait to be evacuated by members of the Louisiana Army National Guard near Walker, LA, on Sunday, August 14, 2016, after heavy rains inundated the region. (AP Photo/Max Becherer)

Louisiana disaster survivors with disabilities need your support after historic flooding
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, continues to respond to this past week's devastating floods in Louisiana. The disaster is particularly troublesome for a state that is still in recovery from major flooding just last March, and many resources are completely depleted because of the March flooding. That storm left more than 5,000 homes damaged or destroyed and cost $1.5 billion across a three-state area. With at least 40,000 homes damaged or destroyed, this week's flooding may end up being even more costly, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. There is an urgent need for durable and consumable medical supplies as well as housing. Portlight will be working with the American Red Cross, local stakeholder organizations, and federal partners to respond to this historic flooding event. Your support is needed to make this happen! Please consider making a donation to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website to further their reach and response in the state of Louisiana. Thank you for any support you can offer!

We’ll have a post this afternoon on the July climate summary for Earth.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

There was also a flooding event (not as bad as the one from last week) earlier this year in Louisiana. Many forget about that.
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson!
Unfortunately, anything that happens in today's world is forgotten in a week. Whether its weather, terrorist attacks, politics, etc, because something else replaces it with the same thing over and over. Never ending cycle of chaos.
Just as the NHC says TD's cloudtops warmed, they infact got cooler :

Quoting 4. stormpetrol:



No TS winds, but it does have a well-defined circulation.
No name, NO ATTENTION!!!!
Quoting 5. RitaEvac:

Unfortunately, anything that happens in today's world is forgotten in a week. Whether its weather, terrorist attacks, politics, etc, because something else replaces it with the same thing over and over. Never ending cycle of chaos.


Also news arrives faster these days, I even had some gymnastic events spoiled by my yahoo news app telling me who won before it was aired on TV.
Quoting 8. bryanfromkyleTX:

No name, NO ATTENTION!!!!



In Louisiana they are indeed calling the flood "the rain with no name".
The GFS more west with tropical depression 6
Texas Task-Force 1 is being deployed to Louisiana in support of search&rescue efforts there. They should be on the move this afternoon around 3pm.
Some colder cloutops:

06l actually jogs west at 132 hours, interesting.

GFS trending weaker and left, Bermuda should keep an eye on 06L for now. Might get ripped apart by all the ULL's though. Any remnants that find a nice little spot could always cause trouble though.
Quoting 13. MahFL:

Some colder cloutops:




Will likely gain convection today hopefully it can persist as well
12z CMC develops the second wave currently already off the coast.
Quoting 18. VAbeachhurricanes:

GFS trending weaker and left, Bermuda should keep an eye on 06L for now. Might get ripped apart by all the ULL's though. Any remnants that find a nice little spot could always cause trouble though.


Could mean Bermuda
Thanks for the update and for the detailed analysis as to the numbers and issues related to Louisiana. On the issue of infrastructure upgrades, and the taxpayer approval for the 200 mil project that would have prevented some of this flooding had it been properly funded by Congress, many States across the Country approve such improvements, and people/politicians talk about it every election cycle, but at the end of the day, no-go if Congress will not appropriate it and chooses to fund other very expensive propositions like foreign wars/military operations (to the tune of several million dollars a day when you are talking about major military operations) which leaves little left over for domestic issues............................................ ...............

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2016 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 14:05:18 N Lon : 36:31:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1003.5mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.1 3.1
If this storm weakens and heads further west rather than north, I wonder about the possibility of regeneration much closer to land should it survive the dry air and shear that is due to weaken it in a few days...Kind of like TD 10 in the 2005 season?
Thanks for the update. Big questions indeed. The NY Times, Aug. 16 :
On Gulf Coast Flooding, The Times Is Late to the Scene

Meanwhile, in Japan :
Typhoon Chanthu makes landfall in N. Japan, evacuation orders issued
Xinhuanet.com - Aug. 17 :
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said that the typhoon made landfall on the southeastern area of Hokkaido, near Cape Erimo, and that as of 7 p.m. strong gusts of up to 144 kilometers per hour had been logged. (...)
The JMA said the typhoon could bring downpours of as much as 150 mm in some regions in Hokkaido, although it said it is likely to be downgraded to an extratropical cyclone leaving heavy rain in its wake as it heads over the Sea of Okhotsk on Thursday morning.


Quoting 14. AntonK55:

There's no media in Louisianna because they can't find a 'correct' racial angle and, even if they could, they're hardly going to beat their Messiah over the head with something like this (as they did with President Bush).
Agree,also New York Times to busy trashing Trump.
what we surely do NOT need is any tropical system going into the western gulf whew,
Quoting 27. LargoFl:

what we surely do NOT need is any tropical system going into the western gulf whew,


True
Quoting 26. victoria780:

Agree,also New York Times to busy trashing Trump.


They never cover weather just mention politics
On TD6/Fiona, you never count out a wave until it completely dissipates, or it is absorbed by a trof, but it does have a difficult road ahead keeping it together once is gets above 25N where it is heading due to dry sinking air and shear from the Tutt cell draped from Cuba out to the Central Atlantic East of Florida and the Bahamas:




In the huge FWIW department, 12z CMC and 00z UKMET develop the middle wave:



Looks to be heading left at the moment.

Very warm water. If a system moves over these waters with favorable atmospheric conditions, powerful hurricanes will be a certainty.

back in 92 it was windshear that the A storm had to deal with in the cent. atl. 6 has to deal with dry air.
TD 6 goes up near Bermuda and gets stuck there with no escape route. Very messy pattern from left to right: High-Low-High-Low-High. Meanwhile, another TD approaching the islands.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/ 2016081712/gem_mslpa_watl_39.png
CaribBoy will like this run :) lol
12Z GFS casting doubt on completely out to sea/fish scenario...watchout Bermuda

0Z run
img src="">

img src="">
Afternoon all.

Well thought out and composed comments on the LA flooding situation. I'm just glad so many local LA residents were able to share their plight with friends and family outside of the area. [Special shout out to Pat, who kept our heads up in here] Otherwise we'd be in the dark.

On TD 6:

Quoting 775. wunderkidcayman:
Hmm closer to the NE Caribbean maybe eventually ending up somewhere in the Bahamas
Do delete that B- word .....

This is the possibility I don't want to see eventuate ... unfortunately it's a fairly logical solution atm. I'm rooting for the "recurves around the high near 60W" team myself .... hope to see that solution become the reality, especially if it also miss Bermuda and Nova Scotia ....
:o)
Quoting 43. TXCWC:

12Z GFS casting doubt on completely out to see scenario

0Z run
img src="">

img src="">

Just dont forgot Hurricane Ike and how much wrong the models were.
Quoting 34. Climate175:




Yikes. Dry air should inhibit it from strengthening very well.
12z GFS is following the 6z in not developing the third wave now so far. We'll see what the Euro shows. Looks like the CMC, UKMET, and HWRF have all picked up on the second wave now, which neither the GFS nor Euro form...
Quoting 47. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z GFS is following the 6z in not developing the third wave now. We'll see what the Euro shows. Looks like the CMC, UKMET, and HWRF have all picked up on the second wave now, which neither the GFS nor Euro form...


So which Trio will win
Quoting 45. victoria780:

Just dont forgot Hurricane Ike and how much wrong the models were.



Yeah don't remind me lol
Quoting 38. hydrus:

Very warm water. If a system moves over these waters with favorable atmospheric conditions, powerful hurricanes will be a certainty.




GFS is putting a 594mb Ridge over the North Atlantic with pressuring lowering off the SE US. This could be a Joaquin type development where we see a system rapidly explode near the Bahamas. Likely some sort of trough split with TD6 being drawn in. Could get interesting guys.
51. JRRP

the third wave
Quoting 51. JRRP:


the second wave


Here she comes and its the third wave if you follow it through


Florida watch out
Quoting 10. MahFL:



In Louisiana they are indeed calling the flood the "rain with no name".


South Florida had one like that like 16 years ago that turned into Leslie. I remember having to kayak down my street and schools being closed for a couple days because of the constant rain we had. Nothing as bad as this, but still a no name storm that just sits over the area and dumps a ton of rain.


Say hi to GASTON
Add low population density to your list of reasons why the news coverage of the flooding and recovery was (or is) less than expected.

Baton Rouge is #93 media market for TV (New Orleans is #50 or so)

Media coverage is a money-making business now, more than ever. All the laws, codes, regulations and oversight to demand a public service in exchange for use of the public spectrum (which we own as citizens) have been repealed, re-written or weakened significantly.

Drop that much rain up where I live in the megalopolis, and it would go wall to wall until the sun dried things up. (TV markets #4, #7 and #1, sometimes #8 included when bad weather hits)

This is also why it is so hard to get a national conversation on AGW going. There simply can't be one unless it makes money.


We will see how long this lasts.
Quoting 50. StormTrackerScott:



GFS is putting a 594mb Ridge over the North Atlantic with pressuring lowering off the SE US. This could be a Joaquin type development where we see a system rapidly explode near the Bahamas. Likely some sort of trough split with TD6 being drawn in. Could get interesting guys.
Hey buddy welcome back. I noted a couple days ago how the ridging was sprawling all the way from the Atlantic to the Pacific with very little to weak troughing. I went back on that yesterday, noticing more deeper troughs that would turn TD 6 and any waves following OTS. I'm less confident in that today as the models seemed to have done a flip-flop, kind of like a fish. I knew I should have went with my initial instinct. What's the old saying, go with your first thought and never stray from it. If you're wrong then graciously accept it and move on as a learning experience.
Quoting 26. victoria780:

Agree,also New York Times to busy trashing Trump.


This is a weather blog. Race relations are, as far as I know, not a meteorological phenomenon. Can we stick to the topic, please?
Florida now will go crazy
Quoting 22. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks for the update and for the detailed analysis as to the numbers and issues related to Louisiana. On the issue of infrastructure upgrades, and the taxpayer approval for the 200 mil project that would have prevented some of this flooding had it been properly funded by Congress, many States across the Country approve such improvements, and people/politicians talk about it every election cycle, but at the end of the day, no-go if Congress will not appropriate it and chooses to fund other very expensive propositions like foreign wars/military operations which leaves little left over for domestic issues............................................ ...............
This is the kind of project that the current and former Congress, especially the Republican side, has constantly voted down over the last 10 years in opposition to President Obama. We have the same kind of problem here [and I would guess in other countries as well]. At some point politicians need to agree that there are certain issues which benefit the commonwealth [or the public good, to put it another way] which should not be used as political tools. Unfortunately, this kind of thinking isn't always a part of the political mindset.
Quoting 36. Siker:

In the huge FWIW department, 12z CMC and 00z UKMET develop the middle wave:






OMG nice!!!!!!
The 12z GFS finally does develop the wave in the Bahamas. Shows the cyclone moving due north just off the Florida coastline with an approaching trough. Would be a nasty scenario if that panned out, moving up the Gulf Stream. But it's a solution 16 days out and unlikely to come to fruition. Modelling is really struggling with the evolution of African waves so far this season, so we'll just have to wait and see what subsequent runs from all the guidance shows. The GFS ensembles are more in line with the ECMWF in a quicker-developing storm that would be more likely to go out to sea.

Also possible nothing develops at all.
Quoting 63. CaribBoy:



OMG nice!!!!!!


Yes but two models i don't trust often
Quoting 46. Articuno:



Yikes. Dry air should inhibit it from strengthening very well.


Maybe it's the reason models are picking up on a wave to develop around 240 hrs out, TD6 and whatever becomes of its trailer could kick some of that dust ahead of 6 out of the picture. Dry air intrusion should be moderate in a week or so compared to lately. [Link]

Quoting 38. hydrus:

Very warm water. If a system moves over these waters with favorable atmospheric conditions, powerful hurricanes will be a certainty.




It is certainly toasty. Pamlico Sound is in the mid to upper 80's in places. [Link]
Quoting 60. OviedoWatcher:



This is a weather blog. Race relations are, as far as I know, not a meteorological phenomenon. Can we stick to the topic, please?
This is the title of the blog: "TD 6 Continues to Develop; Where Were News Media during Louisiana Flood?" So that blogger is technically on topic.Please let's not start this with what we should and should not say. If you don't like a post you can choose to ignore the blogger or scroll right past the comment.

A whole host of factors led to a perfect storm of media inattention. Among the other events competing for news coverage just this past weekend:
--the climax of competition in Rio de Janeiro
--protests in Milwaukee
--the ongoing U.S. presidential race
Quoting 45. victoria780:

Just dont forgot Hurricane Ike and how much wrong the models were.
Models weren't that wrong. Remember at the time we were only looking 3 days out with models. Sure enough, 3 days out, they started to show the SW dive Ike took. I remember the consternation here, and the "no - way" comments ....

Is that an eye forming at mid-level? If the NHC still classifies it as a tropical depression, i will be so mad. ADT values are at T3.1/47 kt.
Quoting 62. BahaHurican:

This is the kind of project that the current and former Congress, especially the Republican side, has constantly voted down over the last 10 years in opposition to President Obama. We have the same kind of problem here [and I would guess in other countries as well]. At some point politicians need to agree that there are certain issues which benefit the commonwealth [or the public good, to put it another way] which should not be used as political tools. Unfortunately, this kind of thinking isn't always a part of the political mindset.


If I were one of the Reps or Congress members from LA (and they may already be on it), I would be running to Congress in a few weeks to get a bill passed to fund and complete this particular project; 200 mil is a drop in the bucket at this point after all this devastation and lost lives............................
Quoting 69. NunoLava1998:


Is that an eye forming at mid-level? If the NHC still classifies it as a tropical depression, i will be so mad. ADT values are at T3.1/47 kt.

I don't think it's an eye. The ADT values are likely slightly inflated, but I do think the intensity should be increased to 35 kt.
Quoting 4. stormpetrol:




One little 30 kt vector in there unless I looked at it wrong. Still working on making it to TS, a little dry air getting inside of it from the NW it appears.



Quoting 67. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This is the title of the blog: "TD 6 Continues to Develop; Where Were News Media during Louisiana Flood?" So that blogger is technically on topic.Please let's not start this with what we should and should not say. If you don't like a post you can choose to ignore the blogger or scroll right past the comment.

A whole host of factors led to a perfect storm of media inattention. Among the other events competing for news coverage just this past weekend:
--the climax of competition in Rio de Janeiro
--protests in Milwaukee
--the ongoing U.S. presidential race
Noting that the mainstream media is preoccupied with too many others things--including the 2016 elections--to adequately cover the Louisiana rain event is one thing; using this forum to bash the current administration and/or to whine about how one's candidate of choice is being (mis)treated by the press is another. The former belongs here; the latter does not.
Quoting 48. James1981cane:



So which Trio will win
Potentially both groups could be right, and we may see all three develop ....
Quoting 53. James1981cane:



Florida watch out
Just like it's not raking the Bahamas / TCI, Cuba, and Hispaniola .... smh
LOL
There's still a lot of model runs until this gets within 5 days of any potential landfall ... I expect to see numerous and multiple flipflops ....
Quoting 74. BahaHurican:

Potentially both groups could be right, and we may see all three develop ....
Just like it's not raking the Bahamas / TCI, Cuba, and Hispaniola .... smh
LOL
There's still a lot of model runs until this gets within 5 days of any potential landfall ... I expect to see numerous and multiple flipflops ....


Yeah me too
Quoting 70. weathermanwannabe:



If I were one of the Reps or Congress members from LA (and they may already be on it), I would be running to Congress in a few weeks to get a bill passed to fund and complete this particular project; 200 mil is a drop in the bucket at this point............................
I agree with you and Baha we need to put the commonwealth of the people as the priority and projects like this will save lives in the future and help to cut down on the damages to property. 200 mil. is like pocket change for the treasury and honestly if my tax dollars had to go towards funding this project I would be all in for it.
LOL, 384 hour Doom to Miami on the 12z
Don't understand why there's always a storm at 384 hours.



GFS essembles like the third wave
Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:

LOL, 384 hour Doom to Miami on the 12z


THE DOOM OF THE DAY GOES TOOOOOO GFS
Asking where news media was during a flood Bush isn't in office.
Quoting 37. swflurker:

Looks to be heading left at the moment.




At the moment, it looks to be heading north and showing a little skin.
Quoting 70. weathermanwannabe:



If I were one of the Reps or Congress members from LA (and they may already be on it), I would be running to Congress in a few weeks to get a bill passed to fund and complete this particular project; 200 mil is a drop in the bucket at this point............................
Completely agree. They need to seize the day in a big way.
If I was a rep in other flood prone areas [could name quite a few] I might use this opportunity to push "prevention better than cure" to my local assembly or national body. ....
Quoting 70. weathermanwannabe:



If I were one of the Reps or Congress members from LA (and they may already be on it), I would be running to Congress in a few weeks to get a bill passed to fund and complete this particular project; 200 mil is a drop in the bucket at this point............................

Sad that it would take a disaster to get a clean bill passed
Models sure are liking conditions for sending something west and so far south.
Ok, ok...NNW!
:)
Quoting 24. Oxfordvalley:

If this storm weakens and heads further west rather than north, I wonder about the possibility of regeneration much closer to land should it survive the dry air and shear that is due to weaken it in a few days...Kind of like TD 10 in the 2005 season?


Oh no you didn't
Quoting 81. beell:



At the moment, it looks to be heading north and showing a little skin.


cone will shift south
Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:

LOL, 384 hour Doom to Miami on the 12z
Don't understand why there's always a storm at 384 hours.


I hope it does manage to skip Florida altogether. We don't need a storm to carry off zika-carrying mosquitoes to all parts of the state- and beyond.
So much for yesterday's "certainty" that the weakness would develop and 98L/TD6 was OTS bound.

Quoting 43. TXCWC:

12Z GFS casting doubt on completely out to sea/fish scenario...watchout Bermuda

0Z run
img src="">

img src="">

It is still a lonely road out there in terms of the Central Atlantic ITCZ which spawns the CV storms but things are starting to moisten up behind TD6 above and around 10N with some more waves to follow; remember that we are still around four weeks away from the peak period on Sept 10th.



000
ABNT20 KNHC 171729
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six located over the central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for slow development through early next week while the
system moves generally westward and passes near the Cabo Verde
Islands over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 56. James1981cane:



Say hi to GASTON


Hi, Gaston.

Also, say hi to a 1,400 mile shift by the time it all shakes out, too.

Lol.
The news media does whatever gets ratings - in this case it's covering whatever Trump is eating or whatever stupid things are coming out of his mouth ad nauseum, it's covering the Olympics and the fiasco those games are and it's paying scant attention to actual tragedies like Milwaukee rioting and the Louisiana floods.

It's very similar to when the Nashville floods happened a while ago - there was virtually no media coverage whatsoever. It's pathetic. Print media is a dinosaur now, and TV media needs to go the way of the Dodo bird.
Quoting 70. weathermanwannabe:



If I were one of the Reps or Congress members from LA (and they may already be on it), I would be running to Congress in a few weeks to get a bill passed to fund and complete this particular project; 200 mil is a drop in the bucket at this point after all this devastation and lost lives............................


They can run. It won't pass. 49 state delegations aren't from LA. Sad but true. Note the current state of Zika response funding which the FL delegation is of course screaming for.

That the journalistic environment has become dysfunctional is a much much bigger issue than just failure to cover this disastrous flood. That failure, itself inexcusable, is itself just one symptom of a huge problem.

I still maintain my print subscription to the Washington Post in a, probably fruitless, attempt to support them in the age of free (and you get what you pay for] web news.

Quoting 89. rmbjoe1954:



I hope it does manage to skip Florida altogether. We don't need a storm to carry off zika-carrying mosquitoes to all parts of the state- and beyond.


That never crossed my mind. I went to the Outer Banks shortly after Irene, bug spray was one of the first things purchased.
NHC has brought out the yellow crayon on TWO for PRE-INVEST/99L
Quoting 67. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This is the title of the blog: "TD 6 Continues to Develop; Where Were News Media during Louisiana Flood?" So that blogger is technically on topic.Please let's not start this with what we should and should not say. If you don't like a post you can choose to ignore the blogger or scroll right past the comment.

A whole host of factors led to a perfect storm of media inattention. Among the other events competing for news coverage just this past weekend:
--the climax of competition in Rio de Janeiro
--protests in Milwaukee
--the ongoing U.S. presidential race


Spot on. I was here when the other party was in the White House and there was a whole lot of Bush bashing going on within this blog. Now, the shoe is on the other foot and we are seeing deleted posts that are, as you stated, on topic. Double standard? Yes, but that's the way politics go. Not even public forums are without bias. Live with it and move on...
Quoting 45. victoria780:

Just dont forgot Hurricane Ike and how much wrong the models were.


how much wrong? Hmmmmm
Quoting 96. georgevandenberghe:



They can run. It won't pass. 49 state delegations aren't from LA. Sad but true. Note the current state of Zika response funding which the FL delegation is of course screaming for.

That the journalistic environment has become dysfunctional is a much much bigger issue than just failure to cover this disastrous flood.


I sifted through the Charlotte Observer last time I was there (3 weeks ago). Half of the articles in there were bought from AP, Reuters, LAT, etc.

I also find it a little humorous that the Winston-Salem Journal is owned by none other than Berkshire Hathaway.
General consensus now on a more westward track with TD6. NAVGEM has a very concerning set up as many other models are now showing with lots of ridging over the North Atlantic.

currently I see TD6 at 14.5N 36.9W

its not looking to great at the moment

anyway Pre 99L will be the bigger threat nice to see NHC is indeed watching it
Quoting 80. help4u:

Asking where news media was during a flood Bush isn't in office.


Where is Fox news by the way?? I'd think they'd be looking for any FEMA imperfections to amplify in their reporting.
Quoting 101. win1gamegiantsplease:



I sifted through the Charlotte Observer last time I was there (3 weeks ago). Half of the articles in there were bought from AP, Reuters, LAT, etc.

I also find it a little humorous that the Winston-Salem Journal is owned by none other than Berkshire Hathaway.


My paper is owned by Amazon's Jeff Bezos. (Washington Post)
Quoting 99. NttyGrtty:



Spot on. I was here when the other party was in the White House and there was a whole lot of Bush bashing going on within this blog. Now, the shoe is on the other foot and we are seeing deleted posts that are, as you stated, on topic. Double standard? Yes, that that's the way politics go. Not even public forums are without bias. Live with it and move on...


I wasn't here during the W era, though I knew this site existed. Nevertheless, it might be different if it was referring to the FEMA/Katrina fallout. Regarding our country's (or any country for that matter) position when it comes to weather and climate has always been a part of the blog from what I recall. Now if the war in Iraq or the 2007-08 housing market crisis spilled over, then it's definitely out of bounds.

But if that was indeed the case and comments regarding our current government (outside of weather/climate) are cut out, that's a problem. Verging on the ridiculous 'safe space' concept many colleges (not UNCW from what I've experienced, thank goodness) have adopted. But that's all I'll say on that on the forum.

As far as local weather is concerned, hot and low chance of precip until the weekend. Next week more of the same, though rain chances are elevated in the mid-week. I wouldn't mind a little deluge of rain, though it's been wet across the state in the past few weeks.
Quoting 99. NttyGrtty:



Spot on. I was here when the other party was in the White House and there was a whole lot of Bush bashing going on within this blog. Now, the shoe is on the other foot and we are seeing deleted posts that are, as you stated, on topic. Double standard? Yes, but that's the way politics go. Not even public forums are without bias. Live with it and move on...
No one was given free reign here to "Bush bash". People were, however, allowed to question and criticize his administration's immediate response to, for instance, Hurricane Katrina. Some here can't tell the difference between the two, but that's okay; so long as the mods do, it's all good...
It's just a tease, it always happens. But I do not want a storm to threaten our coast!
Quoting 93. nash36:



Hi, Gaston.

Also, say hi to a 1,400 mile shift by the time it all shakes out, too.

Lol.
Quoting 104. georgevandenberghe:



Where is Fox news by the way?? I'd think they'd be looking for any FEMA imperfections to amplify in their reporting.
Just goes to show you there agenda is different.Not coming after Obama on his golf trip.
From Previous Blog:

Quoting 763. opal92nwf:

Yeah, I just read the scientific forecast discussion for our area, and it says that yes, a more strong, fall-like cold front will come down into Central/North Alabama/Georgia with cooler dry air, but peter out just north of our area. It stalling will only bring disturbed weather and more possible rain.


Hopefully we can get a couple more days without rain, been pretty soggy lately!
111. OKsky
Newb question time... How does the flooding damage from last weekend compare to Katrina? What other natural disasters are in the same ballpark and how much media coverage did they receive?
Quoting 69. NunoLava1998:


Is that an eye forming at mid-level? If the NHC still classifies it as a tropical depression, i will be so mad. ADT values are at T3.1/47 kt.


You should send out your little drone and measure its windspeeds and barometric pressure. Also, perhaps sample some of the upper air conditions, rh, temps, wind speeds, etc. Tia!
Hi guys. I survived the flooding unscathed (surprising considering how badly my parish fared), but most of my family lost a ton; there's allegedly at least 4 feet of water at my cousins' house in St. Amant. If anyone here knows anyone in the local area that needs assistance, hit me up and I'll gladly help out. I'll even miss work.
Quoting 112. GatorWX:



You should send out your little drone and measure its windspeeds and barometric pressure. Also, perhaps sample some of the upper air conditions, rh, temps, wind speeds, etc. Tia!

I don't even know if it's fueled and i don't even think the drone can get there without failing in the open Atlantic while returning. Also it's not mine.
Quoting 102. StormTrackerScott:

General consensus now on a more westward track with TD6. NAVGEM has a very concerning set up as many other models are now showing with lots of ridging over the North Atlantic.




I've seen some talk of already calling out the post-98L wave as a definite recurve. But that's silly. North of the islands is always an east coast threat, even if it doesn't actually happen.
Quoting 104. georgevandenberghe:



Where is Fox news by the way?? I'd think they'd be looking for any FEMA imperfections to amplify in their reporting.


Might depend on which show on Fox. Outside of the opinionated ones that air in the evening-night, you have the one Shepherd Smith does (actually quite fair imo), then you have the morning shows of the likes of Fox & Friends (an absolute joke). But even O'Reilly, who many on here have mentioned in the past in a negative light, was critical of the FEMA/Bush response to Katrina if my fourteen year old self recalls correctly.
Quoting 98. wunderkidcayman:

NHC has brought out the yellow crayon on TWO for PRE-INVEST/99L


Well good
This wave set to emerge Saturday off Africa so far odds are 0/20

Just a note on the news media bit... I heard at least three days in a row radio news updates on Louisiana flood events. Just briefly on the hour, but enough to make listeners aware. ABC news on a recycled rock and roll AM station in the Oklahoma boondocks.

Have no idea what local network TV had on. Cable news, well... not my cup of tea. Nothing did I see online in the major newspapers through Sunday. Love that Times-Picayune title, “National media fiddle as Louisiana drowns,” by Mike Scott.

What kind of coverage might be going on out there for this? I have not heard about this fire on the radio, but I do see the Los Angeles Times (duh) covering...
The Blue Cut wildfire
Latest info from inci-web notes the Blue Cut fire started mid-morning yesterday and in 24 hours has burned 30,000 acres in San Bernardino County east of Los Angeles. 82,000 persons under mandatory evac order. Firefighting is focused on structure protection and trying for containment as possible.
Quoting 109. help4u:

Just goes to show you there agenda is different.Not coming after Obama on his golf trip.



Who cares?? Why is everything in life political now? I, personally, don't give a damn any longer. Throw a baboon in the Oval Office and you'd have no better, no worse.

I firmly believe people complain and delegitimize others, merely for the sake of being douchey. No other reason; just to be disagreeable.

Anyhow, back to the tropics.
Quoting 100. HurriHistory:



how much wrong? Hmmmmm
Yes wrong going up the east coast wrong Max mayfied retired said going up the west coast .then s-texas then galveston.I guess you wee not alive.at the time.
Quoting 113. KoritheMan:

Hi guys. I survived the flooding unscathed (surprising considering how badly my parish fared), but most of my family lost a ton; there's allegedly at least 4 feet of water at my cousins' house in St. Amant. If anyone here knows anyone in the local area that needs assistance, hit me up and I'll gladly help out. I'll even miss work.


Are you in EBR or Ascension (sp) ?
The media's coverage of weather and climate has been degrading as time goes on. Probably the proliferation of air conditioning and modern amenities just makes it seem of little concern to the average person. It only becomes an issue when it directly affects people's lives. Just look at Paul Beckwith's video regarding the Elicott City flood earlier this month.
Ahhhhh, 78 degrees in middle of August

Unique IR enhancement, I think dryglick is the name of the analyst.


Quoting 123. win1gamegiantsplease:



Are you in EBR or Ascension (sp) ?


I live in Prairieville, so I'm in Ascension. Of note, I should caution that I just returned from a 3-day stay in Houston for a concert over the weekend, but I was forced to spend a night in New Orleans yesterday after I arrived at the airport; naturally, I'm pretty lost on things. I listened to some spotty anecdotes while I was in Texas, very few of which I believed. I still don't have a complete inclination as to how bad things REALLY are.
Kori is out in broad daylight! this must be a sign :D
Quoting 124. ClimateChange:

It only becomes an issue when it directly affects people's lives. Just look at Paul Beckwith's video regarding the Elicott City flood earlier this month.


It's pretty retarded that everyone always needs a visceral (in situ) reminder of stuff before they become alerted to it. That applies to anything, really.

Fortunately, I am not one of those people.
12z ECMWF has "Fiona" much stronger.

Quoting 107. Neapolitan:

No one was given free reign here to "Bush bash". People were, however, allowed to question and criticize his administration's immediate response to, for instance, Hurricane Katrina. Some here can't tell the difference between the two, but that's okay; so long as the mods do, it's all good...


Free reign? No. More reign? Yes...
Quoting 128. washingtonian115:

Koei is out in broad daylight! this must be a sign :D


Koei is Dutch for cow.
Quoting 102. StormTrackerScott:
General consensus now on a more westward track with TD6. NAVGEM has a very concerning set up as many other models are now showing with lots of ridging over the North Atlantic.



Hopefully TD6 doesn't pull an Andrew and wander harmlessly until it decides to blow up in the Bahamas if it gets that far West.
Quoting 130. HurricaneFan:

12z ECMWF has "Fiona" much stronger.




Decent Tropical storm through 48 hours will see if it continues west or now turns more north being stronger.
1) Floodlist.com/news
2) Link
3) Link
4) Link
Hmm... Is there a link between 1), 2), 3), and 4) ? No, it must be
5) my imagination.
lololol, I have the new title to my next country song. Thx!

In just about 2 weeks
my baby leaves me and I'm feeling sour
why's there always a storm
at 384 hours

384 hours
384 hours
I'm gonna' lose my power


Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:

LOL, 384 hour Doom to Miami on the 12z
Don't understand why there's always a storm at 384 hours.
Which wave are the HWRF,CMC and UKMET developing and shoving westward? The wave coming off right now or the wave coming off on Saturday?
the grammer patrol is out and about in full force.
What a good entry as being in the relief mix,today's briefs and imagery is a sobering sad tale.


If you can help in any capacity,FEMA need hands for several hundred,so they hiring,as well as the Red Cross too.
Quoting 138. washingtonian115:

Which wave are the HWRF,CMC and UKMET developing and shoving westward? The wave coming off right now or the wave coming off on Saturday?


I believe the one right now (CMC), it kills the third one.
Quoting 139. Patrap:

What a good entry as being in the relief mix,today's briefs and imagery is a sobering sad tale.


If you can help in any capacity,FEMA need hands for several hundred,so they hiring,as well as the Red Cross too.


I'd like to help. Do you have anymore information on this?
To be fair and honest though the Summer Olympics only come around once every 4 years and I have #RioFever. Same goes for the U.S. Presidential Election, which is very important. Local and state elections are equally important if you want to see progress and not regression or settling for the status quo, which goes hand-in-hand with climate change and just sitting around not doing anything about it because you're all caught up in the oil lobbyists pockets. There are more alternative forms of energy now, which will become less expensive as time goes on. Finally, the Milwaukee protest is a high ticket item in regards to #BlackLivesMatter and #BlueLivesMatter groups. These two issues have become equally important from a social and economic stand point to #reform the laws in this country and it's also up to us the common people to make a stance or set an example for the generations to come. Also, speaking to some adults they have told me that they don't even let their kids watch the news and they rather their kids go outside and play and mingle with other kids of other cultures and diversity. First of all it's more physically and mentally healthier and it eliminates any negativity that the news might put into their heads at an early age. Kudos to them.
12z Euro having the third wave coming off on Saturday starting out weaker.
Euro through 96 hours slightly north with Fiona may try to find the weakness and go out after we will see, notice next wave off Africa which NHC has highlighted

Quoting 141. KoritheMan:



I'd like to help. Do you have anymore information on this?


Sure,

Call now Kori
. http://www.fema.gov/states/louisiana
From my earlier comment (119) about the wildfire that has caused 82,000 to evacuate in during the first day after it started ... "What kind of coverage might be going on out there for this? I have not heard about this fire on the radio, but..."
Heard it "on the radio" just now - ABC radio news has the (San Bernardino County, CA) Blue Cut fire out there - 24 hours into it.
This seems like a much more realistic solution than the one that immediately develops the wave and sends it on its way to the graveyard in the north Atlantic


“Yesterday, it hit hard, it hit fast, it hit with an intensity that we haven’t seen before,” Hartwig said.

Mike Wakoski, incident commander of the Southern California Incident Management Team 3, said fuels in the area are extremely dry and very explosive.

“In my 40 years of fighting fire I’ve never seen a fire behavior so extreme as it was yesterday,” Wakoski said. “Yesterday’s actions were totally defensive.”


Link
Please share

Thanx

shelter info
Mid-Level ridging over the North Atlantic. Appears a shortwave swings off the east coast and tries to pick TD 6 up, but each subsequent run it gets weaker. Definitely noticing a west trend in all of the models for both TD 6 and the third wave.

Fiona on NAVGEM. This is the "unclassified" version. Wonder if there is a "classified" version.
Quoting 151. unknowncomic:

Fiona on NAVGEM. This is the "unclassified" version. Wonder if there is a "classified" version.



...What? >_>
TD 06 in days 5-7 does not seem to move much on Euro generally heading west or WNW. With the ridging and weak short wave coming through it's making it difficult to kicked out to sea.
By the way not sure if this was posted. BOM came out with their update with the current state of the Indian and Pacific Oceans:

La Niña WATCH remains; negative Indian Ocean Dipole weakens

The tropical Pacific Ocean persists at neutral El Niño—Southern Oscillation levels. However, the possibility of a weak La Niña in 2016 remains. In the Indian Ocean, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues, but has weakened in recent weeks. The current event peaked in July as the strongest negative IOD event recorded in at least 50 years of record.

Climate models indicate the negative IOD will continue to steadily weaken over the southern hemisphere spring. This means its influence on Australian rainfall may lessen in the coming months. Rainfall has been well above average for large parts of Australia since May 2016 – which is a typical rainfall pattern observed during negative IOD events. During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences above average winter and spring rainfall and cooler than average daytime temperatures. Northern Australia often experiences warmer than usual day and night-time temperatures.

In the Pacific Ocean, only two of eight international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate La Niña is likely to develop during the austral spring, with two more indicating a possible late-forming event in summer. The remaining models suggest neutral or near-La Niña conditions. A La Niña WATCH remains in place, but if La Niña does develop it is likely be weak.

During La Niña, eastern Australia typically experiences above average spring rainfall, with the first rains of the wet season often arriving earlier than normal in northern Australia. Some La Niña-like effects can still occur even if thresholds are not met.

PDF on Indian Ocean Dipole in Australia
far out in time BUT............................................... ....................
TD Six is starting to look better now. I think it's possible we could see it upgraded to TS Fiona at 5PM. ADT values support a 60 mph storm, but they just seem way too high. I think it could be at 40-45 mph though.
right up biscayne bay blvd.
'Brown Ocean' Can Fuel Inland Tropical Cyclones

In the summer of 2007, Tropical Storm Erin stumped meteorologists. Most tropical cyclones dissipate after making landfall, weakened by everything from friction and wind shear to loss of the ocean as a source of heat energy. Not Erin. The storm intensified as it tracked through Texas. It formed an eye over Oklahoma. As it spun over the southern plains, Erin grew stronger than it ever had been over the ocean.

Erin is an example of a newly defined type of inland tropical cyclone that maintains or increases strength after landfall, according to NASA-funded research by Theresa Andersen and J. Marshall Shepherd of the University of Georgia in Athens.

Before making landfall, tropical storms gather power from the warm waters of the ocean. Storms in the newly defined category derive their energy instead from the evaporation of abundant soil moisture – a phenomenon that Andersen and Shepherd call the "brown ocean."

"The land essentially mimics the moisture-rich environment of the ocean, where the storm originated," Andersen said.

The study is the first global assessment of the post-landfall strength and structure of inland tropical cyclones, and the weather and environmental conditions in which they occur.


Link
Quoting 157. HurricaneFan:

TD Six is starting to look better now. I think it's possible we could see it upgraded to TS Fiona at 5PM. ADT values support a 60 mph storm, but they just seem way to high. I think it could be at 40-45 mph though.



Yes has better banding than last night should be at least a 40MPH tropical storm
Quoting 140. win1gamegiantsplease:



I believe the one right now (CMC), it kills the third one.


Yeah its the one coming off right now
btw, met 1900hurricane over the weekend; he picked me up at the airport. Fun times. He said I was true to my blog persona, which made me happy since I greatly wish to eliminate the idea that everyone exhibits different personalities online. :P
I'm just guessing but This one is the one I will be watching very closely,and so will the GFS I guess............................................. ...
1. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa on
Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat
conducive for slow development through early next week while the
system moves generally westward and passes near the Cabo Verde
Islands over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Volunteer Louisiana is another source for those looking for state-wide opportunities to volunteer or donate funds. The state-run website includes links and information on a variety of organizations.  
👍
Ok Now it's Fiona
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIONA AL062016 08/17/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 51 51 50 50 50 48 50 51
Quoting 166. HurricaneAndre:

Ok Now it's Fiona
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIONA AL062016 08/17/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 51 51 50 50 50 48 50 51


Next time don't go off an unofficial source, huh? :P

(Referring to this morning)
Quoting 166. HurricaneAndre:

Ok Now it's Fiona
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FIONA AL062016 08/17/16 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 51 51 50 50 50 48 50 51


Really
Quoting 167. KoritheMan:



Next time don't go off an unofficial source, huh? :P

(Referring to this morning)
Okay. :)
Nothing much showing up on this afternoons Euro besides seeing TD6/Fiona becoming a little stronger then earlier runs, will continue to take it day by day because things will keep changing with the waves coming off, have a feeling the wave coming off Saturday will be one to track as it could be a threat in the future.
Tropical Storm FIONA
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 17, 2016:

Location: 14.7°N 37.2°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
(Tropical Tidbits)
Quoting 165. Patrap:

Volunteer Louisiana is another source for those looking for state-wide opportunities to volunteer or donate funds. The state-run website includes links and information on a variety of organizations.  
👍


Thanks. I looked it over and signed up for volunteer opportunities. Screw Walmart. People are more important.
175. beell
Quoting 163. KoritheMan:

btw, met 1900hurricane over the weekend; he picked me up at the airport. Fun times. He said I was true to my blog persona, which made me happy since I greatly wish to eliminate the idea that everyone exhibits different personalities online. :P


Sorry to hear that...
;-)
Quoting 163. KoritheMan:

btw, met 1900hurricane over the weekend; he picked me up at the airport. Fun times. He said I was true to my blog persona, which made me happy since I greatly wish to eliminate the idea that everyone exhibits different personalities online. :P

You say that like it's a good thing. :)
Quoting 175. beell:



Sorry to hear that...
;-)



Where were you? >_>
Quoting 176. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You say that like it's a good thing. :)


It is. :D
179. beell
Quoting 126. nrtiwlnvragn:

Unique IR enhancement, I think dryglick is the name of the analyst.





Sorry to hear that...
:-)
will 6 named storms with no TD lost so far with out be coming named so far so good whats see if it can keep it up
181. beell
Quoting 177. KoritheMan:



Where were you? >_>


Buying a car for my child. A promise made...
My loss!
Quoting 173. HurricaneFan:

Tropical Storm FIONA
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 17, 2016:

Location: 14.7°N 37.2°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
(Tropical Tidbits)


So i am guessing Fiona is here
Quoting 180. thetwilightzone:

will 6 named storms with no TD lost so far with out be coming named so far so good whats see if it can keep it up


Hopefully
Quoting 182. James1981cane:



So i am guessing Fiona is here

Not officially confirmed by the NHC, but the Navy site says "06L.FIONA." This means it's more than likely it will be upgraded at 5PM officially by the NHC.
while all eyes on Fiona,this sneaky one goes by the islands and quite Possibly Florida in sept.........
Pic when Kori and I met in nola.


For anyone in the SE EBR area who is wondering about the status of their AT&T service (wireless w/o wi-fi), I just got off the phone with them. Estimated dates of fully functional restoration:

texting/2G - 8/22
voice/3G - 8/23
Data/4G - 8/17 or 18

Don't ask me anything technical, as I don't have a clue. For my area the towers that are 'degraded' are off Tiger Bend and Harrell's Ferry.
In a very good pocket of low shear, despite some dry air intrusions the strengthening is going to continue, I'm confident that NHC will be giving us the F storm at 5.





👆
oh boy, not looking so fishy.

Quoting 191. Patrap:





👆
That big band of convection-less clouds (outflow) to the North is a few hundred miles long BTW but the core is looking good.........................



Quoting 185. LargoFl:

while all eyes on Fiona,this sneaky one goes by the islands and quite Possibly Florida in sept.........

Largo this is a definite possibility! Warm SSTs and favorable High pressure system locations can take this into Florida looking at computer guidance
196. OKsky
Quoting 190. Patrap:

July hottest month ever recorded





How many consecutive months are we at now? 15, 16? Its getting to the point that not having a record breaking month will be news.
Guidance continues to indicate that Fiona...or what's left of the cyclone by this time next week...will recurve out to sea far away from the United States.
Quoting 193. HaoleboySurfEC:

oh boy, not looking so fishy.




No No little fishy go the other wayy
Quoting 170. GTstormChaserCaleb:



GTCaleb I just have a intuition about this forecast coming to fruition., DuPage Meteorology is a quality program. Sooner or later the Chickens come home to Roost
Great set up for an east coast surfer. Bring it on as long as it runs the gap between OBX and Bermuda.

Quoting 195. WeatherConvoy:


Largo this is a definite possibility! Warm SSTs and favorable High pressure system locations can take this into Florida looking at computer guidance
It's an interesting observation around here that when you post a model run, like this morning, showing a trajectory into the Central Atlantic, you get a few plusses, and then when a new run comes out showing a potential trajectory back towards the US, you get tons of plusses........................................... .. :)








Check this out from the hurricane tracker app




👆
Quoting 196. OKsky:



How many consecutive months are we at now? 15, 16? Its getting to the point that not having a record breaking month will be news.

Remember they adjusted temps down in 70's so it has to be hotter for the agenda see what happens when cold phase comes.
2016 has already flooded 42,000 homes.


NASA's Earth Observatory online blog focused on the Louisiana Flood of 2016 on Tuesday (Aug. 16), featuring an animated graphic showing how rain added up across the state. The graphic, shown here, is based on satellite imagery of three-hour rainfall totals over the three day-period ending Sunday.


Animation of satellite-based rainfall measurements during the Louisiana Flood of 2016. Note that 1,000 millimeters equals 39.4 inches.

Quoting 204. help4u:

Remember they adjusted temps down in 70's so it has to be hotter for the agenda see what happens when cold phase comes.


LoL

🛂
Quoting 203. Patrap:





👆


hmm...looks like about 2/3rds of those models shifting to the left now. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
Quoting 197. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Guidance continues to indicate that Fiona...or what's left of the cyclone by this time next week...will recurve out to sea far away from the United States.


not sure what you are looking at but model runs are looking less and less that this storm will go out too sea

Quoting 195. WeatherConvoy:


Largo this is a definite possibility! Warm SSTs and favorable High pressure system locations can take this into Florida looking at computer guidance
yes a long ways off time wise but we need to watch this one for sure.
Quoting 208. CW7859:



hmm...looks like about 2/3rds of those models shifting to the left now. Will be interesting to see if the trend continues.


yep FL is back in play
FIONA, AL, L, , , , , 06, 2016, TS, S, 2016081400, 9999999999, , 013, , , 1, WARNING, 1, AL062016
Quoting 211. thetwilightzone:



yep FL is back in play


No it is not lol, this thing MIGHT get to Bermuda.
JB....


Always a rogue.

👌
Quoting 214. VAbeachhurricanes:



No it is not lol, this thing MIGHT get to Bermuda.


Bermuda. caster lol
Quoting 134. 69Viking:



Hopefully TD6 doesn't pull an Andrew and wander harmlessly until it decides to blow up in the Bahamas if it gets that far West.


Its in the same spot as Andrew at the end of the run. 1992 had a huge high that built in north Andrew then he got shoved west and fast too once he hit FL. Tropical weather is always hard to forecast as its so fluid all the time.
Quoting 216. bigwes6844:





that looks like peer 99L off the coast there
Quoting 214. VAbeachhurricanes:



No it is not lol, this thing MIGHT get to Bermuda.


the fathest west i would go is the bahamas fiona may make the bahamas
Please keep any forced graphic from paid weather sites off this blog entry.

Anyone who overlays their fo'cast on official NHC graphic.

Is a idiot.
Quoting 220. James1981cane:



the fathest west i would go is the bahamas fiona may make the bahamas


bahamas caster lol
Quoting 219. thetwilightzone:




that looks like peer 99L off the coast there


Yeah but the NHC doesn't like that wave
Quoting 209. thetwilightzone:



not sure what you are looking at but model runs are looking less and less that this storm will go out too sea




I agree. A 595mb high across the North Atlantic should make one a little nervous across the SE US.
Expect a shift south and west in the track
Quoting 221. Patrap:

Please keep any foirced graphic from paid weather sites off this blog entry.

Anyone who overlays their fo'cast on official NYC graphic.

Is a idiot.


Man please your just jealous he gets so much exposure.
new runs models have shifted South and West again
Quoting 224. StormTrackerScott:



I agree. A 595mb high across the North Atlantic should make one a little nervous across the SE US.


no sooner than later Fiona or future Fiona will curve i expect it makes the northern bahamas then stregthens rapidly then moves OTS
life is alot better when the beaches have surfable waves. its been awhile since late Dec e cen fl. has any really good surf. the kids will be happy.
Quoting 227. wunderkidcayman:

new runs models have shifted South and West again


Yep looks more south west each run
Has officially been named Fiona according to multiple sources @DaDaBuh
#BREAKING TD 6 NOW TROPICAL STORM FIONA THE 6TH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON

Quoting 211. thetwilightzone:



yep FL is back in play


I don't know about Fiona, but possibly Gaston. But that's a ways out....for Fiona to come here either A: The ridge got stronger or B: Fiona stayed weak and kept following the westerlies.
Quoting 218. StormTrackerScott:



Its in the same spot as Andrew at the end of the run. 1992 had a huge high that built in north Andrew then he got shoved west and fast too once he hit FL. Tropical weather is always hard to forecast as its so fluid all the time.

And Andrew formed on August 16. Hmmmm....
scott i dont remember dry air as a hinderance in 92 as it is now
Quoting 211. thetwilightzone:



yep FL is back in play
Until it passes north of our latitude it should still be watched. If storms like Isabel, Fran, and Ike ever taught us any lesson in that.
Quoting 201. weathermanwannabe:

It's an interesting observation around here that when you post a model run, like this morning, showing a trajectory into the Central Atlantic, you get a few plusses, and then when a new run comes out showing a potential trajectory back towards the US, you get tons of plusses........................................... .. :)









That's how this blog's been since day one.
Quoting 181. beell:



Buying a car for my child. A promise made...
My loss!


Tell your kid to get a job. :)
FIONA, AL, L, , , , , 06, 2016, TS, S, 2016081400, 9999999999, , 013, , , 1, WARNING, 1, AL062016

The NHC just has to announce it they have it in there system
Quoting 236. islander101010:

scott i dont remember dry air as a hinderance in 92 as it is now

Andrew struggled a lot. At one point, it looked like it might even dissipate.
Quoting 238. KoritheMan:



That's how this blog's been since day one.


That's because the majority of those folks WANT a landfalling hurricane. They'll never admit it, because they would be publicly skewered, and rightfully so, but it doesn't make it any less true.

They want the excitement. They're bored.
Quoting 230. Grothar:





Saw a few people making the comparison earlier so decided to look it up....track and early strength very similar. Didn't hit hurricane status till about 75 west. That would be a very bad scenario with the current TCHP near the Bahamas.

EDIT: Don't know why but images won't load....click on the link for Hurricane Andrew track for comparison.



Link
Quoting 237. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Until it passes north of our latitude it should still be watched. If storms like Isabel, Fran, and Ike ever taught us any lesson in that.


Even when it gets north of your latitude, it's no slam dunk. Remember Jeanne? Granted, you need an unforseen blocking high to make the system do a loop like that, but the models had fits with the upper-air pattern for DAYS with Jeanne.
Quoting 243. nash36:



That's because the majority of those folks WANT a landfalling hurricane. They'll never admit it, because they would be publicly skewered, and rightfully so, but it doesn't make it any less true.

They want the excitement. They're bored.


Oh I love watching landfalls. I'll freely deal with the stigma. You're definitely right. Just like people like CaribBoy and 19N81W probably also want a hurricane, but they politely complain about drought instead. Maybe I'm wrong about them, but that's my perception based on how those types of people usually are. I was like that at one point before I became more vocal about it.
The plussing system as a whole not just here, but sites like Facebook and Twitter is flawed because I'll see people plus a comment of someone who just passed away. I just can't see myself doing that, but leaving a comment of solidarity would do just fine. Maybe, a dislike feature would be better or just doing away with it as a whole, but then I guess generation z would get upset about it, since they love their emojis.
Quoting 220. James1981cane:



the fathest west i would go is the bahamas fiona may make the bahamas
If it makes it to the Bahamas, it will make it to the Gulf too. The ridge has been strong this year, and no Captain trough to save us. We need a good storm in South Florida to get rid of the White Fly, and Zika mosquito's, maybe send them to DC. where they might do some good.
Quoting 221. Patrap:

Please keep any foirced graphic from paid weather sites off this blog entry.

Anyone who overlays their fo'cast on official NYC graphic.

Is a idiot.


The official New York City graphic?
Quoting 250. VAbeachhurricanes:



The official New York City graphic?


It was not me i didn't overlay it it was not me it was from the hurricane tracker app calm down
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 249. NativeSun:

If it makes it to the Bahamas, it will make it to the Gulf too. The ridge has been strong this year, and no Captain trough to save us. We need a good storm in South Florida to get rid of the White Fly, and Zika mosquito's, maybe send them to DC. where they might do some good.


Lol and yeah i think if it got to the bahamas it would curve out
Quoting 218. StormTrackerScott:



Its in the same spot as Andrew at the end of the run. 1992 had a huge high that built in north Andrew then he got shoved west and fast too once he hit FL. Tropical weather is always hard to forecast as its so fluid all the time.


You know my policy on eastern Atlantic trash: everything recurves.

Get back to me in two weeks. :)
Quoting 243. nash36:



That's because the majority of those folks WANT a landfalling hurricane. They'll never admit it, because they would be publicly skewered, and rightfully so, but it doesn't make it any less true.

They want the excitement. They're bored.
Usually after one experiences a hurricane, they do not want to experience another....Some may want another, have no idea why.
Quoting 247. KoritheMan:



Oh I love watching landfalls. I'll freely deal with the stigma. You're definitely right. Just like people like CaribBoy and 19N81W probably also want a hurricane, but they politely complain about drought instead. Maybe I'm wrong about them, but that's my perception based on how those types of people usually are. I was like that at one point before I became more vocal about it.


I was down here for Andrew in 92 and Wilma in 05. During Andrew I climbed on top of the roof at my parents house to see this wall of black clouds barreling in from the east. That's something I'll never forget, I was 13 at the time. For Wilma I went outside during the peak, got to see the roof singles blow off in one big chunk on the apartment building across the street from my house. That was the sign to go back inside lol....needless to say I love the stormy weather, always have.
Quoting 232. James1981cane:

Has officially been named Fiona according to multiple sources @DaDaBuh
#BREAKING TD 6 NOW TROPICAL STORM FIONA THE 6TH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE 2016 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON


And where are all the so called weather experts who were saying the season is a bust, and no more storms, this month? May see 2 to 4 more this month.
Quoting 243. nash36:



That's because the majority of those folks WANT a landfalling hurricane. They'll never admit it, because they would be publicly skewered, and rightfully so, but it doesn't make it any less true.

They want the excitement. They're bored.

+1000
The Cone of Doom is always interesting and so are model runs and things of the like. But in my short 6 years of actually paying close attention to these storms, I've learned especially from a few that nothing really means anything.
Joaquin and Debby for the most part taught me.
Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:

LOL, 384 hour Doom to Miami on the 12z
Don't understand why there's always a storm at 384 hours.
You wouldn't say that if you endured July on the blog.....
LOL
261. ariot
Quoting 111. OKsky:

Newb question time... How does the flooding damage from last weekend compare to Katrina? What other natural disasters are in the same ballpark and how much media coverage did they receive?


No one here has the expensive tools to do a full-on media analysis.

I have worked in places that subscribe to such services for legitimate purposes.

One example (of how this works) is market size by city (my earlier post touched this a bit).

#1
If an event happens in a sparsely populated region, the news outlets locally have less pull (market) to throw packages up to national broadcasters.

#2
Katrina was an event, a storm hitting a major city, that generated "dodged a bullet" headlines at 0400 the following morning. I know. I was in the airport (DCA) at 0330 to check in for a flight. (couldn't check in until 0430 though) However, as the true damage and recovery efforts (or lack of them) became evident, along with the number of people impacted (millions) the story went national. We lost a major, historic, U.S. city, and had to get it back. That is big news for everyone. It was even running on TV channels in Asian countries and EU countries as top news.

#3
Fragmentation of local and consolidation of national news was a predictable byproduct of the telecommunications act of 1996. One of many impacts are evident in this example of biblical rain in LA.

The Weather Channel had resources and assets to get to the storm, as expected. They were live.
NBC pulls from TWC, as they are owned by the same entity.
Local LA NBC affiliate is owned by White Star out of Lafayette, but operated by the mega operator Nexstar who operates 91 broadcasters.
Comcast, big daddy, had the Olympics and had the most content to pull from NBC/TWC, and didn't have to pull from locals. If you had Comcast and or watched NBC news, you got flooding coverage, but it was out of context and focused on the dramatic, rather than the scale or potential outcome, that is how the profit model works.

Similarly, Comcast/NBC/TWC can, if they want to play rough, hold back stuff for competition who did not want to send resources to LA.

Margins are thin, lots of big players are tapped out on budgets to move their people due to Olympics and Election stuff.

Plus, the locals (two or three big ones) in LA, run by Nexstar have had an open beef with Fox lately, so they can favor others when throwing to national. But, they wanted NBC/Comcast/TWC content for their bigger markets under NBC labels. So they probably did whatever the big dog wanted to do.

CNN will pull table scraps unless the event is previously in the budget, they can get solid free stuff, or they have people nearby for something else. (And some thing I-Report is a thing. It's giving them free stuff.)

The big print outlets used the wire services, as planned, and did good work covering the rains, and they have begun to put things in context. The small print outlets are all broke, can barely afford the wire, and can't ever do context unless the event is in their back yard.

No one is going to read this, and I probably missed a few things.

But generally speaking, it is a money game, and the LA rains weren't going to make any money for anyone other than TWC/NBC/Comcast and the wire players who had people on site from the jump.

I don't like the Katrina reference. To keep water out of New Orleans, and surrounding suburbs is a much more difficult task that draining Baton Rouge. Baton Rouge is above the rivers around it. New Orleans is below the Lake and way below the Mississippi. Draining Baton Rouge should be easier than Pumping out New Orleans.
Quoting 247. KoritheMan:



Oh I love watching landfalls. I'll freely deal with the stigma. You're definitely right. Just like people like CaribBoy and 19N81W probably also want a hurricane, but they politely complain about drought instead. Maybe I'm wrong about them, but that's my perception based on how those types of people usually are. I was like that at one point before I became more vocal about it.


I like your comment. But I explicitly say that I want a hurricane or more (but no majors) every single year, and regular rains all year long.

I'm confident that WKC also wants a storm but refuse to admit lol.
Quoting 218. StormTrackerScott:



Its in the same spot as Andrew at the end of the run. 1992 had a huge high that built in north Andrew then he got shoved west and fast too once he hit FL. Tropical weather is always hard to forecast as its so fluid all the time.
Guess I'm not the only one squawking "Andrew!" every time I see a model run..... LOL

To the people saying Florida is out of play, Florida is ALWAYS in play, even if the storm's already hit it....
Quoting 264. BahaHurican:

Guess I'm not the only one squawking "Andrew!" every time I see a model run..... LOL

To the people saying Florida is out of play, Florida is ALWAYS in play, even if the storm's already hit it....


I'm trying to remember, haven't there been several storms to hit FL, loop around it hit FL again? Tried google and just came up with Ivan, but I know there were others.
I haven't posted here in years. A few posts back I observed many of those that DO post here saying: "It takes JUST ONE". Here in South Central La, (40 miles north of the GOM) we got over 22" of rain. While this tropical system wasn't named, I think it would qualify as the "JUST ONE".

Now I'm probably dating myself, but I seem to remember a certain lady tricking us into thinking she was "going fishing". She got as far north as the latitude of Georgia. Then made a loop and traveled due south for several hundred miles, then moved west over South Florida, into the GOM, and then into Central Louisiana. I would love to have seen what the modeling would have done with Hurricane Betsy if she had happened today. If Andrew in 1992 gave forecasters fits, Betsy would have given them heart attacks.

I can say though, that I'm glad to have the models we have available today. Having several days notice gives people time to prepare AND to evacuate if necessary. Unlike previous years, this year we may see storms making it into the GOM. And, like I eluded to earlier: It takes just one storm - even if we have a below average # of named storms.
267. MahFL
Quoting 111. OKsky:

Newb question time... How does the flooding damage from last weekend compare to Katrina? What other natural disasters are in the same ballpark and how much media coverage did they receive?


Not sure about the damage, maybe 30%. TV coverage of Katrina was round the clock, Shepard Smith and others lost it somewhat, the situation was that bad.
My father in law lost his house in Long Beach, Miss.
The 25ft or so surge, where they had never flooded before, left only the concrete slab, and a few muddy remains.
He has another house now, about 1000 feet further inland, where the Katrina surge did not reach.
Quoting 265. CW7859:



I'm trying to remember, haven't there been several storms to hit FL, loop around it hit FL again? Tried google and just came up with Ivan, but I know there were others.
I certainly had Ivan in mind, but I'm also thinking about how FL has so many "parts". A storm that hits the east coast can easily go on to wallup the Panhandle [2004 is a good example]. On top of that, a storm coming on shore in, say, Naples, often doesn't lose much strength before it hits, say, Palm Beach. There's a lot of coastline to Florida, and a lot of directions from which and angles at which hurricanes can strike.

Sure, Floridians may be paranoid, but for a very good reason.
Fiona struggling a little with firing deep convection in wake of all the dry stable air. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a remnant low before reaching 50W. I more interesting on the waves behind her.
On one of the blog topics, if you wanted news on the disastrous Louisiana flooding start with our blog and local sources, if you want an overview of bad news in the USA try the Russia Times...decent journalism, not hyped tabloid but not usually in great depth either. They seem to relish bad news in the USA: Louisiana flooding and riots in Milwaukee all have been reported for several days now. Not much on bad news in Russia though... all sources have their biases that you need to recognize. I think reporting US weather disasters in US mainstream media has become politically incorrect due to the fallacious climate "debate". I try to visit a variety of sources to get a picture of what is going on: BBC, London Guardian, Asia Times, Der Spiegel, Al Jazeera, El Pais, Bloomberg... The Atlantic is good for occasionally relevant in-depth reporting. More focused journalistic reporting from Moon of Alabama , Counterpunch, Truthout, TomDispatch, ranging to Automatic Earth and the more scattershot Zero Hedge. Just so you recognize the biases, there is far more news available on the internet then in the traditional media. I really miss The Oil Drum, but I have found alternatives to that as well. Overall, bias is more determined by what topics are not reported or emphasized rather than the POV "slant" on what is reported.

Just forget about TV news, unless you want to liquidate brain cells and lower your IQ.