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TD 5 may redevelop over Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2010

The remnants of Tropical Depression Five are still spinning over southwestern Georgia, and the storm is headed southwards towards the Gulf of Mexico, where redevelopment into a tropical depression could occur by Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense thunderstorms has developed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity continues to intensify and expand in areal coverage. Most of the heavy rain is offshore, but I expect heavy rains will spread to the Florida Panhandle late this afternoon. These heavy rains will likely spread to coastal regions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana by Monday, as the center of ex-TD 5 approaches the coast and the storm begins to wind up again. By Tuesday, the GFS and HWRF models predict that the center will move off the coast, and TD 5 will be reborn again. The system may have enough time over water to become a weak tropical storm before making landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning over Southeast Louisiana. Wind shear is currently low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, over the next three days, favoring re-development of TD 5. NHC is giving a 20% chance that TD 5 will regenerate into a tropical depression by 8am EDT Tuesday. I think the odds are higher than this, perhaps 40%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remnants of TD 5.

Elsewhere in the tropics
All of the major models have been predicting a major pattern shift in the global atmosphere late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and the start of the Cape Verdes hurricane season. The models have been consistently predicting a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

The NOGAPS model is predicting possible development of a tropical depression near the coast of Nicaragua or Honduras late this week.

Smoke envelops Moscow again
The favorable northerly winds that had blown in cooler air and kept smoke away from Moscow slackened today, as high pressure built in. The return of the high pressure ridge that has brought European Russia its worst heat wave in history means several more days of light and variable winds that will keep wildfire smoke over or near Moscow. Very hot weather at least 10°C (18°F) above average will also be rule, and temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 31°C (88°F) today. This is 11°C (20°F) above average. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 30°C for the next five days. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia late this week, bringing an end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 by early next week.


Figure 2. Image from Friday by NASA's Aqua satellite showing smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

exTD5's forward motion has slowed by from 12.5mph down to 4.5mph(~7km/h), and exTD5 was ~55miles(~88kilometres) out in the Gulf by the 12GMT report.
exTD5's most recent heading was south of SouthWest, and its rate of westward curvature has more than doubled its previous rate.
- Date - - Time - - - - Location
15Aug 12pmGMT - 31.8N85.1W
15Aug 06pmGMT - 31.3N85.1W
16Aug 12amGMT - 30.7N85.3W
16Aug 06amGMT - 29.7N85.8W
16Aug 12pmGMT - 29.4N86.1W

Copy&paste 31.8N85.1W-31.3N85.1W, 31.3N85.1W-30.7N85.3W, 30.7N85.3W-29.7N85.8W, 29.7N85.8W-29.4N86.1W, msy, apf into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.

Given its slower speed and its increasing curvature rate, it's a tossup on whether exTD5 makes it past the southernmost point of Louisiana, or makes another landfall before reaching NewOrleans.
lol ramping up where the max winds out there that i see are 22mps..the seas are just 3 feet..this is only going to be a rainmaker its not even a depression yet...so calm down get real
Quoting tkeith:
...spooky

lol


Lol......Until the Atlantic pops, it's the only game in town at the moment but all of the flooding and rain potential for LA is nothing to laugh at either......I am hoping that it does "not" develop.
TD5 looks unchanged to me since its over water now. Yesterday although it had very deep convection it was pretty far from the center, much farther than yesterday and was being pushed off to the west. Today its nearer to the surface circulation. Lets see what recon finds.
I see a mass of clouds in the SW Caribbean this morning. Anything worth monitoring, or is it just a flare up that will soon die down?
well i also noticed the wave off of africa have loss lots of its convection..i wonder if that could be because the ssts are cooler then they were in july...i said this to miami last night...
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Questions for the experts: With A.C.E. in the basement, what can we reasonably expect it to climb to this season? Even if it has the highest single season climb since A.C.E. has been recorded, how far out of the basement can it go? Then, considering the answer to that question, what are the analog seasons for that A.C.E. level? Do the numbers match? Thanks.

Oh, and Howdy all!


1950 didn't see its second hurricane until 8/20, and finished up with an ACE of 243. 1998's second hurricane was on 8/25, and it finished with 182. Some others: 1999: 2nd hurricane on 8/22, ACE 177; 1964: 9/3, 170; 1961: 9/3, 205. The CSU boys are still calling for 195; I'll go along with that.
cyber teddy hello its not a classified tropical depression yet its a very weak surfaced low..
i have dropped my total number of storms from 13 to 11...i think 6 hurricanes 2 major..
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Very impressive wave, nice MLC.
AL, 05, 2010081612, , BEST, 0, 294N, 861W, 20, 1009, LO,
cyber if you talking about the wave off the african coast has a rough road ahead of it...lots of shear as youget to the islands not to mention pockets of dry air..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Very impressive wave, nice MLC.


Wonder if it can make it through the SAL
NWS bumped TD5 from 40% to 60% based on exactly what? StormW, Levi, Dr Masters, WeatherGuy? Anyone around to illuminate?
Quoting katrinakat5:
well i also noticed the wave off of africa have loss lots of its convection..i wonder if that could be because the ssts are cooler then they were in july...i said this to miami last night...


It's nearing a decent amount of SAL and dry air, which it might have took a big gulp of it already.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Wonder if it can make it through the SAL


It probably will. There is a large moisture field ahead of it.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Wonder if it can make it through the SAL


Your Avatar, LMAO
Quoting nola70119:
NWS bumped TD5 from 40% to 60% based on exactly what? StormW, Levi, Dr Masters, WeatherGuy? Anyone around to illuminate?


Shear's supposed to abate, and veer around to easterly as the system moves under the influence of the southern flank of the high pressure ridge to the north.
nola its not a tropical depression yet its a weak surface low...
Quoting nola70119:
NWS bumped TD5 from 40% to 60% based on exactly what? StormW, Levi, Dr Masters, WeatherGuy? Anyone around to illuminate?


Doesn't mean that it will become a CAT 5, but could regain some of the characteristics that it needs to be a depression or a TS
Quoting KoritheMan:


Shear's supposed to abate, and veer around to easterly as the system moves under the influence of the southern flank of the high pressure ridge to the north.


Thanks. did you get any sleep?
Very strong consistence on the GFS and EURO on our Cape Verde system shows me that the first one may very well likely recurve out to sea, but the next one will probably head more west, possibly effecting someone. Yeah, I know it's too early to tell but look at climatology. One storm recurves while the other storm heads further west, it happens all the time.

Two great examples of this..
1996 - Edouard and Fran
2003 Fabian and Isabel
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Your Avatar, LMAO


Silence!!!! LOL
Quoting nola70119:


Thanks. did you get any sleep?


lol no

I'm not really tired, and the neighbors upstairs (I'm in a multi story apartment) are noisy as hell.
Quoting StormChaser81:


It's nearing a decent amount of SAL and dry air, which it might have took a big gulp of it already.


Loop the SAL some. See a moisture field begins to clear out the SAL in front of PGI30L?
-
3032. IKE
3033. tkeith
3032. IKE 8:41 AM CDT on August 16, 2010

can an elongated low be a closed low?
Quoting katrinakat5:
i have dropped my total number of storms from 13 to 11...i think 6 hurricanes 2 major..

tlking about risk ur life to eat more crow
Quoting nola70119:
NWS bumped TD5 from 40% to 60% based on exactly what? StormW, Levi, Dr Masters, WeatherGuy? Anyone around to illuminate?


Increased organization, strong model support, low level circulation.
hey reed have you checked the ssts off the coast of africa i think you should know they are cooler then in july..they barely support tropical activity..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Loop the SAL some. See a moisture field begins to clear out the SAL in front of PGI30L? Seriously, if SAL was going to be as bad as it appears none of the models would develop it, instead of all the models developing it.


It could have still sucked in SAL or dry air while still over land, I see the moisture field building, but doesnt mean it didnt already ingest some SAL.

The models produce ghost storms all the time, just because the models have latched onto the system , doesnt mean anything will come out of it.

That's still a decent sized amount of SAL in front of the system, we've seen them fight it off for days and then all of a suddenly little bit of shear forces it into the inner storm.
Quoting StormW:


Morning Boss Man
Quoting btwntx08:

tlking about risk ur life to eat more crow


btw, quoting him makes you as bad as the troll, we all have him on ignore. Do the same please.
teddy the max wind out there is 22mph with barely 3 foot sea...not a depression yet its just a closed weak low...rainmaker for the northern gom..
Quoting nola70119:
NWS bumped TD5 from 40% to 60% based on exactly what? StormW, Levi, Dr Masters, WeatherGuy? Anyone around to illuminate?


I had the same question. In our NOLA haz weather it mentions a possible storm by tomorrow without explanations.
Quoting tkeith:
3032. IKE 8:41 AM CDT on August 16, 2010

can an elongated low be a closed low?


Ya, I think it was that way for awhile before it dissipated.
Everytime i wake up in the morning and everythings gone poof!
3047. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
3032. IKE 8:41 AM CDT on August 16, 2010

can an elongated low be a closed low?


Not to my thinking.

New MJO charts....




Quoting StormChaser81:


It could have still sucked in while still over land, I see the moisture field building, but doesnt mean it didnt already ingest some SAL.

The models produce ghost storms all the time, just because the models have latched onto the system , doesnt mean anything will come out of it.

That's still a decent sized amount of SAL in front of the system, we've seen them fight it off for days and then all of a suddenly little bit of shear forces it into the inner storm.


Models produce ghost storms if only one model is showing it. However, the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, UKMET and the NOGAPS all show this developing in some way. They also showed TD5 looping around and trying to regenerate in the Gulf, guess whats happening now. Also, we're getting in the time of the season where you have to take seriously such tight model support for a Cape Verde system.
Believe what you want, there will be over 10 storms, and most of you downcaster and people who don't have faith this season will be stunned by the next few weeks and next month. Facts are facts folks, the ingredients are are coming together for a parade of storms for the next couple of weeks as shown in the models. Oh and this out to sea scenario is not gonna stick around, the GFS shows a ridge building after the first storm recurves, which is quite normal after recurvature happens. It's La Nina, get used to it, more storms this year then last year, it's gonna happen, stop denying it. You'll only hurt yourselves in the end.
3050. Thaale
Quoting nola70119:
NWS bumped TD5 from 40% to 60% based on exactly what? StormW, Levi, Dr Masters, WeatherGuy? Anyone around to illuminate?

No fundamental change in the overall prediction, it's just that six hours later, the system was finally to a window where the future development to TD, always known to be possible, was now less than 48 hours away.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Models produce ghost storms if only one model is showing it. However, the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, UKMET and the NOGAPS all show this developing in some way. They also showed TD5 looping around and trying to regenerate in the Gulf, guess whats happening now. Also, we're getting in the time of the season where you have to take seriously such tight model support for a Cape Verde system.


I agree with that statement
Looking nice...with a persistent land-breeze on Florida's west coast as a bonus (Click for the full-sized image).

teddy until you can produce what you say you are the one thats been wrong..so far i see the wave off of african being affected by the ssts and the sal...sorry i know you want it to develop its not going to happen...the gom weak surface low is just that 22mph max winds a nd barely 3 ft seas...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It probably will. There is a large moisture field ahead of it.

isnt it suppossed to move SW and thenback west
Quoting Thaale:

No fundamental change in the overall prediction, it's just that six hours later, the system was finally to a window where the future development to TD, always known to be possible, was now less than 48 hours away.


Thanks, that why I asked StormW, Levi35, Weatherguy.....its my short list of experts.
3057. SpFox
Funny how Ike only post MJO charts when are downwards...
Quoting reedzone:
Believe what you want, there will be over 10 storms, and most of you downcaster and people who don't have faith this season will be stunned by the next few weeks and next month. Facts are facts folks, the ingredients are are coming together for a parade of storms for the next couple of weeks as shown in the models. Oh and this out to sea scenario is not gonna stick around, the GFS shows a ridge building after the first storm recurves, which is quite normal after recurvature happens. It's La Nina, get used to it, more storms this year then last year, it's gonna happen, stop denying it. You'll only hurt yourselves in the end.


Reed sometimes I disagree with your postings, but I have to agree with you with this. The amount of 'downcasting'(I call it wishcasting, as the kiddies are just sad that their schools weren't taken out over the summer and now have to go back) has gotten out of control on here, its almost as bad as the wishcasting now. I see you get bashed a lot for your opinion, its just sad.
you can see from the sat pic of the weak surface low its starting to get elongated...shear is affectig it right now..plus the land interaction..
GFS
3061. tkeith
Quoting SpFox:
Funny how Ike only post MJO charts when are downwards...
and you forgot he only posts models that dont develope storms *shakes head*...

You've got quite a fan club Ike...lol
Quoting StormChaser81:
GFS


Quite a large system.
3063. IKE
Quoting SpFox:
Funny how Ike only post MJO charts when are downwards...


Really...I guess you didn't see the ones I posted 2 days ago on here that showed a positive MJO in the eastern ATL.
teddy its not downcasting i said there will be 2 major hurricanes but not now it will happen in mid september when the season begins to ramp up....
Quoting IKE:Reference Radar Post


Hey IKE, get much rain up in your neck of the woods yesterday? I ended up with a little over an inch yesterday, not the wash out I thought it was going to be. We might get some more today once the atmosphere heats up!
3066. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
and you forgot he only posts models that dont develope storms *shakes head*...

You've got quite a fan club Ike...lol


They love me.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Reed sometimes I disagree with your postings, but I have to agree with you with this. The amount of 'downcasting'(I call it wishcasting, as the kiddies are just sad that their schools weren't taken out over the summer and now have to go back) has gotten out of control on here, its almost as bad as the wishcasting now. I see you get bashed a lot for your opinion, its just sad.


The season has been a dud SO FAR. When there is nothing to talk about folks go into 14 day forecasts, MJO, what wave is over Ethiopia, etc.....I have IKE on block but I have to say his downcasts are probably right more of the time than they are wrong.
3068. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


They love me.
lol
3069. IKE
Quoting 69Viking:


Hey IKE, get much rain up in your neck of the woods yesterday? I ended up with a little over an inch yesterday, not the wash out I thought it was going to be. We might get some more today once the atmosphere heats up!


I got .21 yesterday.

Mostly cloudy now and 80.2.
Quoting Canealum03:
I see a mass of clouds in the SW Caribbean this morning. Anything worth monitoring, or is it just a flare up that will soon die down?


It's a tropical wave and may or may not develop anything depending on its characteristics and the set of conditions it runs into.
FYI When there is something out there actually developing, it may be difficult to get a definitive and accurate guess from someone here on those "blow ups". What I do is go to the NHC site after noting the Lat and Lon and see what they say about in the "Tropical Discussion" section, just click on it, and they will give you an overview of their observations. If and when it starts to develop into something more than a wave, trust me, it wiil be discussed here at length.

I live on the west end of the Caribbean, so you can be sure I am keeping an eye on it.

I hope that helps.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Reed sometimes I disagree with your postings, but I have to agree with you with this. The amount of 'downcasting'(I call it wishcasting, as the kiddies are just sad that their schools weren't taken out over the summer and now have to go back) has gotten out of control on here, its almost as bad as the wishcasting now. I see you get bashed a lot for your opinion, its just sad.


Thanks, I always look to you as a reliable blogger on here as well. Sometimes I disagree, but most of the time I agree with you. People just don't see what's happening here, and just because 2-3 storms go out to sea doesn't mean it will be a consistent pattern. After seeing a good consensus with the Cape Verde storm, I believe this will recurve. However, based on climatology, and I'm using evidence which shows no reason for me "wishcasting", the next storm may go further west as a ridge builds after the recurvature. Too early to tell in all reality, but this is based on past storms.
All that breakfast talk earlier I just made a slew of pancakes and fried ham! LOL

So is recon still on for today?
nola we just say the truth nothing about dwncasting gee...i been saying this we were in a neutral year since the season began...these experts who predicted 18+ storms are looking like fools now...
3075. tkeith
Quoting alaina1085:
All that breakfast talk earlier I just made a slew of pancakes and fried ham! LOL

So is recon still on for today?
Yes

NOUS42 KNHC 151530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 15 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA GULF OF MEXICO - REMNENTS OF TD 05
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 29.5N 86.0W
E. 16/1700-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z- 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 17/0500Z
D. 29.5N 87.5W
E. 17/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
3070:
Thanks. I just noticed a floater is on it at Ramsdis and it jumped out at me.
Ike! You're in the *code red* circle, what are you going to do next?? :P
Quoting nola70119:


The season has been a dud SO FAR. When there is nothing to talk about folks go into 14 day forecasts, MJO, what wave is over Ethiopia, etc.....I have IKE on block but I have to say his downcasts are probably right more of the time than they are wrong.


Actually the season is right on track for a very active season. If 05L becomes Danielle and the Cape Verde wave becomes Earl (high emphasis on the 'if') We'll be at 5-1-0. The ECMWF is predicting 13 after September 1st. That would put us at 18 named storms if no more storms form in August if Earl forms this week.
LOL Teddy, you're only encouraging them ;)
Quoting IKE:


I got .21 yesterday.

Mostly cloudy now and 80.2.


Amazing how there can be that much difference in rainfall totals about 3 miles apart!
i would not at all be surprised to see recon cancelled its becoming elongated more like a tropical wave...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Reed sometimes I disagree with your postings, but I have to agree with you with this. The amount of 'downcasting'(I call it wishcasting, as the kiddies are just sad that their schools weren't taken out over the summer and now have to go back) has gotten out of control on here, its almost as bad as the wishcasting now. I see you get bashed a lot for your opinion, its just sad.

I can't speak for everyone who doesn't automatically jump on the bandwagon for every twitch of a given model, but I can tell you why I'm hesitant to get overly excited about the vaporware that has thus far been the 2010 season. It was simply over-hyped up front and that set outrageous expectations. Once those predictions started falling through, faith in the remainder of the season, even though it is the hight of the season, started to wain. I'm not saying that storms won't develop. There could even be a mini outbreak of storms in the next few weeks. I'm just saying that I will believe it when I see it. I was excited about a very active season. I am no downcaster by any stretch. I think this season and the over-hyping that precluded it has simply made me more realistic and skeptical.
The 947 mb Category 2 Hurricane makes up for the slowish July.
3085. SpFox
Anyway, Ike, youre a rational and judicious downcaster, and you have proven to be right so far.
Thanks TKeith!
Quoting katrinakat5:
i would not at all be surprised to see recon cancelled its becoming elongated more like a tropical wave...


Might not they dont have to fly very far.

3088. IKE
Quoting reedzone:
Ike! You're in the *code red* circle, what are you going to do next?? :P


Not worry...it's partly sunny here.
3090. SQUAWK
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


My biggest fear is coming true.... A lot of people I know are becoming complacent. They keep saying where is all of these bad hurricanes that they were talking about? I tell them that the season is still early and that they should not let their guard down, but they say whatever?

I think that while we can and do have TS's in June and November, they should make the official season July 15th through October 15th. The long season with slow starts and slow ends, really make people complacent.

Just because it's not the "official season", doesn't mean that we won't have storms that bear watching. Just that at the beginning and the end of the current way the season is identified, they are usually not very powerful and awareness does not have to be that high at the beginning or the end of it.


I don't think there ought to be a "hurricane season." I mean the only months we don't see hurricanes is February, March and April, and that may change if the GW peeps are right. Do we have a tornado season? No -- because they can occur almost any time and for the most part, so can hurricanes.
you right storm chaser but its a waste of time...
Current radar along with the model plots

Quoting katrinakat5:
you right storm chaser but its a waste of time...


Any data is good data.
3095. divdog
Quoting IKE:


Not worry...it's partly sunny here.
Yea it looks like its shaping up to be a nice day. No worries about extd5 even if we are in the circle.
Quoting IKE:


Not worry...it's partly sunny here.


Yeah, everything is south of the low.. I was hoping you would say you were gonna go to Disney World..
3097. tkeith
Quoting alaina1085:
Thanks TKeith!
I had a boiled egg and juice for breakfast (on a diet)...ham and pancakes sounded delicious :)
ex-TD5, It's starting to form little baby banding features.

Long Range Radar
Hate repeating myself (for the last three years) but the entire numbers game is just that to a large degree and some folks take this particular issue too seriously; I stopped counting the numbers and prefer the general notion of below-average, average, above-average season "predictors" based upon general pre-season conditions and the probable ENSO set-up. That is about as close as "Man" can get but I think it is a pretty safe assumption that it will be an above-average season this year based upon historical climatoly and current indicators. Many of the folks on here, and particularly the obvious trolls, who keep harping about a dead or dud season in June/July/August are trying to rile folks up, or, completely ignoring the basic indicators which are well established.......Those folks are on my ignore list which has grown exponentially this year.
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS FEATURING AL05 AUGUST 16, 2010 ISSUED 10:00 A.M.


Thanks Senior Chief...

v/r

Jon
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS FEATURING AL05 AUGUST 16, 2010 ISSUED 10:00 A.M.


Thanks.....that is what I needed to read- details.
If this forms would it be TD 5 still?
Quoting StormChaser81:
ex-TD5, It's starting to form little baby banding features.

Long Range Radar
And looks to be drifting West
well said storm the onlty think i disagree with you is the weak surface low becoming tropical storm danielle...
Which way is ex TD5 moving at the moment?
Good morning extreme.
Quoting SaintPatrick:
Which way is ex TD5 moving at the moment?

Read Storm W's new blog. He talks allll about it :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Good morning extreme.


Good morning teddy. Looking like no big changes this morning.
By the way, no one who reads this page is being complacent......just the opposite, anyone who posts here is probably obsessive.
Quoting SaintPatrick:
Which way is ex TD5 moving at the moment?


Looks to be almost stationary. 0mph
Thank you Storm. Very succinct analysis!
You can see the wind shear keep the convection to the SW of the low. This may not organize as much as I thought, the anticyclone is not stacked with it and is shearing it a bit this morning. 20 knots though, nothing to hostile.
Quoting extreme236:


Good morning teddy. Looking like no big changes this morning.


Yep, but it does appear 05L's poised to regenerate.
Quoting alaina1085:

Read Storm W's new blog. He talks allll about it :)


Thanks, didn't know he posted it, was on my breakfast break
3126. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

.UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ASHORE
ACROSS THE NORTH FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS MORNING. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING I-10. MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICT A WEAK LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF DESTIN ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF OUR MARINE ZONES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING
SHOWED A SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO NEAR 800 MB WITH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE. WITH THIS MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND A MORNING PWAT OF 2.12 INCHES...EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TO BE SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MID LEVEL DRYING FORECAST
BY THE MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND RUC ARE MORE BULLISH
WITH THE DRYING TREND THAN THE NAM. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LOWERING
OF POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
AFTERNOON POPS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR NOW THOUGH WITH HIGHER POPS TO
THE WEST (60%) AND LOWER POPS EAST (40-50%) WHERE THE MID LEVEL
DRYING IS FORECAST TO BE AT ITS GREATEST. HAVE TWEAKED THE MORNING
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND. WILL
ALSO BE MONITORING THE MARINE ZONES AS GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO BACK
OFF OF THE SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LOCAL OBS SHOW WINDS NEARING
SCA LEVELS SO HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NOW.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep, but it does appear 05L's poised to regenerate.


Agreed. Might actually get a name this time.
Quoting SaintPatrick:


Thanks, didn't know he posted it, was on my breakfast break

Just got back from mine as well. Have you checked out the tiki hut yet?
A Colombian plane has crashed after being struck by lightning, killing at least one person and injuring 114, officials say.

The Boeing 737, carrying 131 passengers, had been attempting to land at an airport on the island of San Andres in the Caribbean Sea.

San Andres Island, about 120 miles (190km) east of the Nicaraguan coast, is a popular tourist destination.

Link

So Storm, you think MS doesn't need to be concerned with Ex TD5 becoming a TS and making landfall there/here?
The somewhat elongated center of 95L appears to be drifting due west, or even slightly north of due west, so I'm not placing much stock in the current projected path models. I don't believe it possesses the necessary organization or time to develop in to much more than a rain maker.....which is all it's ever been.

NW Florida Radar Loop
3133. Ossqss
Click to enlarge



ECMWF calling for 13 storms after September 1st? Talk about bullish...lol.

Thanks for the good synopsis StormW
Quoting SeniorPoppy:
ECMWF calling for 13 storms after September 1st? Talk about bullish...lol.

Too bad we can't bet on here.... I see a few takers!
This is taken from the blog of my local weather station website.

"Tropical Update: As mentioned above, the remnants of Tropical Depression 5 have worked their way back into the Gulf of Mexico near Panama City. They are poorly organized, but are expected to become better organized later today/tonight.


A few of the forecast models want to develop the remnants back into a tropical depression as soon as tonight as it slowly moves to the west. At this time, this does not seem that significant strengthening is likely thanks to some strong wind shear in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. This wind shear would help to keep the storm poorly organized. However, this could change, so keep a watch on this system over the next few days.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) feels that there will be a small window of opportuntiy for some favorable conditions to develop, and is giving this a high chance, 60%, of becoming a tropical depression once again in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Elsewhere...the tropics are pretty quiet other than a few tropical waves moving across the open Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, tropical system formation is not expected through Tuesday."

http://www.wbrz.com/blog-entries/remnants-of-td-5-making-a-return-to-south-louisiana/
That's around where that band of deepish convection is, just off the north coast of Panama. Part of a tropical wave according to the 06z Surface Analysis.


I checked the EURO, I didn't see 13 storms, just 1 or 2.. Where are you all seeing 13 storms?
EX td05 not looking impressive at all. It loves the land, not the sea.
Quoting StormW:


No...I think MS is ok. Low and mid level steering doesn't support MS landfall:






Thanks Storm! :)
Looks like the Bam D is having some issues in the latest run from the NHC

3145. brla61
Thanks Storm, great analysis!
Great work as always usual, Storm. :-) Thanks...
Quoting alaina1085:

Just got back from mine as well. Have you checked out the tiki hut yet?


no, not yet. waiting on you to tell me when you have a free day to go >_^
Over the last few frames, the LLC has tightened up...

Thanks for sharing your synopsis Storm W - any reason to "watch" the little flare ups in the Carribbean Sea?
Are there any more recent model runs on that African wave? Will it still be something to watch? If so, I am interested in a 288 day GFS model run to see where it may be at that time, if anyone has that info.

Thanks much.
Looks more like a central LA to mid TX coast landfall. Could make the weather here in Houston a bit interesting towards the middle to late part of the week. I've seen a lot of weak storms in 35 years living in Houston that hang around produce floods almost of biblical proportions.
Quoting SaintPatrick:


no, not yet. waiting on you to tell me when you have a free day to go >_^

Ha! My sisters band just played there saturday night. I didnt go tho, had my son.
3153. breald
Is it me or do these storms take longer to develop then in the past years? I don't see how we will get the numbers they are calling for. But that is a very uneducated opinion.
3154. will45
looking at buoys near the area if things dont change i doubt recon will find winds hgigher than a depression if they find a closed low. winds have been a prob with so far except in thunderstorms. Tremendous rains can still be the worst problem with x5
Quoting reedzone:
Over the last few frames, the LLC has tightened up...

looks like the road runner ...lol
Are there any more recent model runs on that African wave? Will it still be something to watch? If so, I am interested in a 288 day GFS model run to see where it may be at that time, if anyone has that info.

Thanks much.
3157. divdog
Quoting HouGalv08:
Looks more like a central LA to mid TX coast landfall. Could make the weather here in Houston a bit interesting towards the middle to late part of the week. I've seen a lot of weak storms in 35 years living in Houston that hang around produce floods almost of biblical proportions.
would have to go alot more west than predicted to cause problems in houston. you should be ok this time.
Quoting thermoclined:
looks like the road runner ...lol


Wind shear of 20 knots from the edgte of the anticyclone that is in LA is shearing the system a bit, displacing the convection southwest.
Quoting alaina1085:

Ha! My sisters band just played there saturday night. I didnt go tho, had my son.


Well! I have a sitter for my son whenever you're ready... lol
max wind i could find was 23 mph and 3 foot seas..this sure doesnt look like this is going to ramp up ...it will probably be a rain makes ..it remains elongated shear is still affecting it...it will bring copious amounts of rain to the northern gom..
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS FEATURING AL05 AUGUST 16, 2010 ISSUED 10:00 A.M.


Great update. Thanks, StormW.
Quoting divdog:
would have to go alot more west than predicted to cause problems in houston. you should be ok this time.
See StormW's blog. If it makes it south of 28deg north, the emphasis will shift westward.
StormW, or anyone else who feels qualified to answer. - 2 questions -
1. Given that the most active convection is normally found in the NE quandrant of a North moving storm, would you expect the (right front quadrant) SW side of a South moving storm to be the most active?
2. With very little data history on tropical systems moving south into offshore waters in the Gulf of Mexico, what is your confidence in the models' forecasts in this situation, or does the lack of history really matter with today's global models?
Thanks,
Back to Lurk mode.
what's up with the creeps trying to make a date on a weather site... seriously...
Is recon still on for today?
Good morning everyone!

Ex-05L looking good...Recon heads out at noon CDT, they arrive at 1 PM CDT.



And of course, PGI30L continues organized nicely even after it emerged this morning. Fairly vigorous mid-level circulation associated with it.

3170. will45
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA GULF OF MEXICO - REMNENTS OF TD 05
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 29.5N 86.0W
E. 16/1700-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z- 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 17/0500Z
D. 29.5N 87.5W
E. 17/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
Quoting txsweetpea:
Is recon still on for today?
Yes.

3. REAMRKS: MISSIONS ON TCPOD 10-076 FOR 16/1800Z
AND 17/0600Z AND 1200Z ON THE REMNANTS OF TD #5
ARE STILL PLANNED TO BE FLOWN AT THIS TIME.
Quoting txsweetpea:
Is recon still on for today?


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REAMRKS: MISSIONS ON TCPOD 10-076 FOR 16/1800Z
AND 17/0600Z AND 1200Z ON THE REMNANTS OF TD #5
ARE STILL PLANNED TO BE FLOWN AT THIS TIME.
i would not be shocked if recon cancelled today the way the system is looking...its being sheared and its elongated with max winds 23mph and only 3 ft seas...
3174. Thaale
Quoting Waltanater:
Are there any more recent model runs on that African wave? Will it still be something to watch? If so, I am interested in a 288 day GFS model run to see where it may be at that time, if anyone has that info.

Thanks much.

LOL, would you settle for 288 hours? That's 12 days.


384 hours (16 days):


Link to NOAA's GFS, GEFS, and other models:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml
all the convection is displaced from the LLC...
Quoting reedzone:


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REAMRKS: MISSIONS ON TCPOD 10-076 FOR 16/1800Z
AND 17/0600Z AND 1200Z ON THE REMNANTS OF TD #5
ARE STILL PLANNED TO BE FLOWN AT THIS TIME.


Thanks reed and Miami09!
3169. MiamiHurricanes09 10:40 AM EDT on August 16, 2010
Good morning everyone!

Ex-05L looking good...Recon heads out at noon CDT, they arrive at 1 PM CDT.


The displaced convection to the SW is there but you can clearly see the "naked" COC south of the Panhandle in your post........Too close to land to properly wrap around IMHO.
Interesting 06z run from the GFS today. It develops PGI30L into a major, but then its outflow shears the tropical wave behind it. Then, when PGI30L is all gone, another tropical wave comes barreling through and develops into a tropical cyclone.
theres a new blog
fish storm fisj storm fish storm i was right look at the tropical wave is still moving nw at 20 north..going out to sea...
the ssts are cooler then in july off the african coast...lots of dry air out there also..its going to be tough for anything to sustain development out there righy now
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
3169. MiamiHurricanes09 10:40 AM EDT on August 16, 2010
Good morning everyone!

Ex-05L looking good...Recon heads out at noon CDT, they arrive at 1 PM CDT.


The displaced convection to the SW is there but you can clearly see the "naked" COC south of the Panhandle in your post........Too close to land to properly wrap around IMHO.
The circulation appears to be around the NE periphery of the convection and drifting southward. So, it is almost nestled in the convection. The fact that it is so close to land won't help it.
NEW BLOG
fish storm here
LOL! Yes 288 hours would suffice! Come to think of it, YES I WOULD also like to see where this storm would be on May 31st next year! LOL. Thanks.
It looks like remnants of TD 5 are now beginning to move on a more westerly track. Also, still seems that most of the convection is still to the S & W of the COC.

Link
It appears that we are getting a couple of thunder boomers here in SE now off the remnants TD5!!!!! this is a welcome relief!!!