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TD 3 Forms in SE Gulf; Tropical Storm Warnings on Florida Gulf Coast

By: Bob Henson 5:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2016

A large swath of coastline from the Florida panhandle to the state’s west coast was placed under a tropical storm warning on Sunday morning by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) with the commencement of advisories for newly declared Tropical Depression 3, expected to become Tropical Storm Colin by Sunday night. The tropical storm warning extends from Indian Pass (southeast of Panama City) to Englewood (between Tampa and Fort Myers). As of 11 AM EDT Sunday, the center of circulation for TD 3 was located just off the north coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, or about 550 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Virtually all of the shower and thunderstorm activity (convection) associated with TD 3 was positioned more than 100 miles east of this center, over the very warm waters of the Yucatan Channel, the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico, and the northwest Caribbean (see Figure 1 below). The convection was broadening and intensifying on Sunday, suggesting that TD 3 is approaching tropical storm strength.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of TD 3.


Figure 2. WU tracking map for Tropical Depression 3 based on the forecast issued by NOAA/NHC at 11 AM EDT Sunday, June 5, 2016.

The wide extent of TD 3’s convection could have set the stage for a large and powerful hurricane if the system had a long time to organize under favorable conditions. However, larger tropical depressions tend to take longer than smaller ones to consolidate their energy, and TD 3 will not have a great deal of time before it moves inland. Models have been quite consistent in making TD 3 a weak or moderate tropical storm prior to landfall, including HWRF, the top-performing intensity model of 2015.

A broad southwest flow at upper levels will channel TD 3 toward the upper west coast of Florida, with landfall possible as soon as Monday evening, perhaps in the sparsely populated Big Bend section of Florida’s coast. There is high confidence on this general track, with the large-scale features driving it already in place and model guidance holding firm. The large southward extent of the tropical storm warning reflects the storm’s marked asymmetry, which will keep the heaviest thunderstorms and the highest winds well to the east of the center. There is a chance that the low-level center of circulation of TD 3 could reorganize beneath the heaviest convection, which might result in a landfall closer to the southern part of the warning area. However, any such shift would result in a shorter track over water, which would give TD 3 even less time to organize over the Gulf. Hurricane hunters from the U.S. Air Force were en route to TD 3 early Sunday afternoon; the data they collect should give us a better sense of TD 3’s structure and its potential for strengthening.


Figure 3. Infrared NOAA GOES image of TD 3 as of 1600Z (noon EDT) Sunday, June 5, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Potential impacts in Florida
High tides on Florida’s west coast are at their highest values of the month because of this weekend’s new moon, so even a weak Tropical Storm Colin could produce noticeable storm surge flooding. NHC is predicting that water heights at high tide along the immediate coast could reach 1 to 3 feet above ground level from Indian Pass south to Tampa Bay and 1 to 2 feet above ground level from Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay.

Regardless of its exact track and strength, TD 3 will bring very heavy rains across much of Florida, especially on Sunday night and Monday. There is some risk of nocturnal tornadoes over South Florida on Sunday night, as southeasterly low-level flow is overtopped by stronger southwest flow at upper levels. Here and throughout the state, convection will be fueled by a swath of extremely rich tropical moisture moving north from the Caribbean. On Monday, the bulk of the Florida peninsula will be swaddled by an air mass with precipitable water between 2.00” and 3.00”. These PW amounts could match or exceed record values for late spring and early summer at several locations. (Precipitable water, or PW, is the amount of moisture in the atmosphere in the form of water vapor above a given point.) Rainfall amounts are likely to be in the 4” - 6” range on the right-hand side of TD 3’s track across central and/or northern Florida, with isolated 6” - 10” amounts possible.


Figure 4. Projected rainfall for the period 8 AM EDT Sunday, June 5, 2016, through 8 AM Wednesday, June 8. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

After the Florida landfall, what next?
TD 3 may reach its maximum strength after it traverses Florida rather than beforehand. Nearly all models are predicting that TD 3 will restrengthen after it emerges off the east coast of Florida, so we could be dealing with a Tropical Storm Colin roughly paralleling the southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday. Here again, the lopsided structure of TD 3 will tend to keep the heaviest thunderstorms and strongest winds on the offshore (southeast) side of the center, which would minimize any potential impact from Georgia to North Carolina even if the center were to hug the coastline. Steering flow around a large eastern U.S. trough means there is very high confidence in the overall northeastward direction of motion. By Wednesday, the system is expected to be shooting northeastward between Bermuda and Nova Scotia as it rapidly evolves into a post-tropical storm.

I’ll be back with a brief update on Sunday night should TD 3 be upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin, with our next full update midday Monday. One other note: residents of the mid-Atlantic should be on alert for potentially severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk of severe weather (see map below) extending from central North Carolina to central New Jersey, including the Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia metro areas. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible with the strongest storms.

Bob Henson




Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 995. Skyepony:


The air is swamp thick and warm in FL.


I'll take our swamp air over snow, any day.
1002. IDTH
Deep blowup of convection occurring south of the storm over the Yucatan.
Yucatan peninsula is robbing its convection from Colin in new wild bursts. (Yes I know it's technically wrong, as the convection probably originates in Colin anyways)

Edit : Lol IDTH you were first this time.
Quoting 996. Patrap:

Hurricane Cindy 05' was a good example of a Yucatan Spin up that made its way due N and walloped us in early July.

Note my join date, as I became a wu paid member for xtra radar frames for this Hurricane.




July 3, 2005
Dissipated July 12, 2005
(Extratropical after July 7, 2005)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 75 mph (120 km/h)
Lowest pressure 991 mbar (hPa); 29.26 inHg
Fatalities 1 direct, 4 indirect
Damage $320 million (2005 USD)
Areas affected Yucatán Peninsula, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana
Part of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season


I feel like you have certain posts saved on word documents for your convenience. It makes practical sense considering you often bring up many of the same posts during hurricane season to make sure people use their heads during the season.
There's an interesting articl over on Ars Technica about the history and future of weather forecasting.

With iPhones and computer models, do we still need weather forecasters?

It goes a little into the history and evolution of weather forecasting. It talks about the reasons IBM bought The Weather Company and its plans for the future of computer forecasting.

The author also interviewed James Spann about the future of forecasting.

Personally I think there's still a lot of room for human forecasters with detailed local knowledge. Computers aren't there yet for detailed local forecasts.

I get the daily weather report from Weather Underground in my email each morning but I still check the local National Weather Service forecast which is more accurate. For instance for today the WU forecast was a high of 97 but the local NWS forecast a high of 94 and what do you know, the 5:00 PM report shows the temperature to be 94. It's also 94 on my thermometer.
Quoting 976. Bucsboltsfan:



The next squall coming up in a couple of hours looks a bit stronger.


Yep it's getting stronger as it approaches, there's a whole train of line segments all the way down to the Keys, didn't expect to be getting this much already!
Let the fun begin.
Link

Water Vapor Loop
1009. Patrap
Quoting 1004. ElConando:



I feel like you have certain posts saved on word documents for your convenience. It makes practical sense considering you often bring up many of the same posts during hurricane season to make sure people use their heads during the season.


Actually I just use google with some tags, as patrap,wunderground, images gives a lot of images and the prose comes easily from memory.

I am a savant from a 79' Head injury, the rest was beat in by the USMC Im going with El' C.

: P
Will a new center form right under strongest convection off the Yucatan?
Quoting 974. Jedkins01:



Yep Clearwater has had nearly an inch of rain already, I'm up to 0.87 here so far already, wasn't expecting this much rain and wind already with these squalls, there's been some decent lightning too surprisingly.


Picked up 1.49 so far in Orlando. Not bad for the storm being so far away.
Quoting 1008. FIUStormChaser:

Link

Water Vapor Loop


Easy to see where the center is, with this loop.
1013. Drakoen
Quoting 979. Bucsboltsfan:



And it would have gone west too. That's why Tampa almost never gets hit by well structured hurricanes.


It would have gone east if anything. There is a deep-layered weakness present with the trough axis over the Mississippi River Valley which limits the extent of the subtropical ridge to the east.
Couple more bands about to arrive in Cape Coral/Ft. Myers area
Quite the overall decrease in shear on the lower graphic in the Atlantic after just 384 hours. At that rate what will it be in late August?



00Z Guidance is out- not much change.

1017. beell
Quoting 1011. Naga5000:



Picked up 1.49 so far in Orlando. Not bad for the storm being so far away.


yea some moderate storms trained over the center of the state today.
1019. GatorWX
Quoting 972. Drakoen:

If it wasn't for the shear, this could have been an incredible dangerous storm.


My thought exactly. I like to call it a region of influence, and this one has a biggen. This is going to be another frustrating, nail biting season. I can already tell.
Ok Jed then why does Tampa never get hit by strong hurricanes? 90 years. Everything that impacts us are sheered systems. I could give you many examples when the environment was much better and the storms moved west - Ivan and Georges are two examples.
Quoting 1020. Bucsboltsfan:

Ok Jed then why does Tampa never get hit by strong hurricanes? 90 years. Everything that impacts us are sheered systems. I could give you many examples when the environment was much better and the storms moved west - Ivan and Georges are two examples.


As he said, luck
1022. Drakoen
Everyone just get out their lassos and pull the next major hurricane to Tampa to please some bloggers.
Look at the last few frames of vis sat!
Every low and mid level cloud is moving South! (exactly where NHC has the storm center.) From Western edge of Marked low to the Eastern edge of marked low ALL LOWER and MID level clouds are moving nearly due south.
The "new" upper spin off the NE Yuc is also moving out to the NNE at a rapid pace.
Has some new surface low formed under the original position of "convection spin"? and is NOW DOMINANT? Forcing the winds out of the North directly North of the entire Yuc peninsula?
Please tell me I am nutz and also tell me why it looks this way.
Quoting 1017. beell:




I love the little lows on the west side, zipping around, trying to put up convection but having it sheared away.
They look like maniacal little steam engines puffing up smoke.
"I think I can. I think I can."
1025. Patrap
Quoting 1022. Drakoen:

Everyone just get out their lassos and pull the next major hurricane to Tampa to please some bloggers.


Thats gonna leave a mark I bet.

: )
1026. beell
Current GFS modeled 500 mb steering ridge over the Atlantic.



Current GFS modeled 850 mb steering ridge.



Essentially the same.

If all goes according to this plan, at least some of the northern stream energy on the backside of the low pressure system over Canada will merge/phase with the southern stream and begin to erode the ridge-allowing Colin to land in the Big Bend.
1027. cabice
Quoting 1016. SavannahStorm:

00Z Guidance is out- not much change.




Large shift SOUTH
Quoting 1022. Drakoen:

Everyone just get out their lassos and pull the next major hurricane to Tampa to please some bloggers.

I would like to vote on that and say no, some may but that is not a wishcast I want to come true. Tampa is the last major city that a storm like that to hit. New Orleans and New York out of the way, Tampa is one of the most overdue major cities for a serious hit. Not all in TPA want that...
1029. NRAamy
Flood watch in Seminole County until Tuesday night.
Quoting 1022. Drakoen:

Everyone just get out their lassos and pull the next major hurricane to Tampa to please some bloggers.


Everyone wants to experience a major. Once they do, they realize how much work it is beforehand, and how miserable you are afterwards . . .
Some heavy rain moving through Houston again tonight. Forecast to rain again Monday, then for 5-days starting Friday.
Trinity River is out of its banks. Enough with al the rain!
Quoting 1027. cabice:



Large shift SOUTH


ONLY WITH THE MODELS THAT DON'T DO SO WELL FORECASTING THE PROPER TRACK.

Oh, sorry was I shouting?

Several models take Colin to category 1 hurricane status.
Quoting 1022. Drakoen:

Everyone just get out their lassos and pull the next major hurricane to Tampa to please some bloggers.


Drake, I'm not looking for a major, I'm trying to understand the dynamics.
Quoting 1027. cabice:



Large shift SOUTH


it did shift south, but not too much
Quoting 1027. cabice:



Large shift SOUTH


Little shift. About 20-40 miles south.

Quoting 1027. cabice:



Large shift SOUTH


If you count the BAMs...
I have to admit I was one of those stupid people who always wanted to experience a hurricane until Charley. I pray I will never again
"With iPhones and computer models, do we still need weather forecasters?" is an interesting read, and on-topic too :
As TV meteorologists wrestle with keeping the weather relevant in the digital age, periodically they and their news chiefs will meet with consultants and advisers about increasing the ratings of their newscasts. "Some consultants have come out and said make every day a severe weather day," Johnson recalled. "There needs to be something in every weather cast to try and grab people's attention and draw them in."
That thought may sound abhorrent to a responsible meteorologist like Johnson, but the Internet has clearly ramped up hype around weather. Someone with a weather Facebook page might hype up a winter storm in Alabama, and every little tropical system gets promoted as potentially the next Hurricane Katrina.
It is something Johnson and Spann have tried to resist. "Fighting hype on social media seems to take up a lot of my time," Spann said. "I just don't like the trend. When you're hyping up every time a dog pees on a bush as some severe thunderstorm, we're just as bad as the crap apps. We can't do that (...)"
1040. nash36
Quoting 1020. Bucsboltsfan:

Ok Jed then why does Tampa never get hit by strong hurricanes? 90 years. Everything that impacts us are sheered systems. I could give you many examples when the environment was much better and the storms moved west - Ivan and Georges are two examples.


Steering flow.

Storms will go around the western flank of the ridge. The will follow the path of least resistance. Folks should feel fortunate that they get missed every year.
1041. Patrap
Quoting 1036. FIUStormChaser:



Little shift. About 20-40 miles south.




Not much compared to the earlier 18Z here

Another strong line of storms coming through Sarasota now.
1043. Patrap
AFK fo GOT.


Excuse me your Grace'
1044. Dakster
Quoting 999. ElConando:



10 feet of snow just sounds just plain wicked. No one in the area would be able to leave their homes for days.


Same holds true for areas that are used to getting snow. 10' overnight would cripple Anchorage for a day... Granted they are prepared to do "plow outs"...

Can you imagine the highways in South Florida if it snowed...
Could come in handy later: FOX 13 Tampa Bay - SkyRadar Live Loop
Quoting 1041. Patrap:



Not much compared to the earlier 18Z here




I believe i incorrectly posted the 18z model suite, here is the correct 0z model suite zoomed in:


Link
Quoting 1017. beell:





i wounder if there are any model run on the low spining this N of PR
Quoting 1044. Dakster:



Same holds true for areas that are used to getting snow. 10' overnight would cripple Anchorage for a day... Granted they are prepared to do "plow outs"...

Can you imagine the highways in South Florida if it snowed...

Now that would be a disaster for sure!
Funny, it seems like after Colin clears Florida, the heavens open up. 2-3 inches expected in my area Wed-Fri.
Quoting 1042. flbeachgirl:

Another strong line of storms coming through Sarasota now.


I wouldn't want to be on the Skyway when that line comes through.
Quoting 1044. Dakster:



Same holds true for areas that are used to getting snow. 10' overnight would cripple Anchorage for a day... Granted they are prepared to do "plow outs"...

Can you imagine the highways in South Florida if it snowed...


You kidding me? The natives would be outside scooping it up, thinking it was something else . . . .
Quoting 1051. daddyjames:



You kidding me? The natives would be outside scooping it up, thinking it was something else . . . .


I just spit my beer all over the screen... ROFL
Quoting 1046. FIUStormChaser:



I believe i incorrectly posted the 18z model suite, here is the correct 0z model suite zoomed in:


Link


pretty much the same as the previous . . .
1054. EricSFL
Quoting 1028. RavensFan:


I would like to vote on that and say no, some may but that is not a wishcast I want to come true. Tampa is the last major city that a storm like that to hit. New Orleans and New York out of the way, Tampa is one of the most overdue major cities for a serious hit. Not all in TPA want that...

Nobody with any knowledge whatsoever of what a major will do to Tampa wants that. Is there lots of excitement and attention in the buildup? Yes. But the piles of bodies they will be collecting in the aftermath will scar the region for generations. Those with vision understand that. I was here when Charley was supposed to be the one. The morning I left my boarded up house, ABC28 was saying to expect an 18 ft storm surge where I live later that day. I looked at my house and said goodbye. Then as I drove away, I passed hundreds of single story homes that were going to be submerged. But what really shocked this native North Carolinian and veteran of Hugo, was that the roads were mostly empty. Most had stayed put. Cat 4 storm bringing an 18 ft surge deep into heavy population, and few left. Insanity. Charley took its infamous hard right and we barely got a rain drop. Hundreds, if not thousands, of Tampa Bay lives were spared. But one day...it's not going to turn hard right. Nobody wants that.
Quoting 984. Loduck:


Are you talking about the little spin a couple of hundred miles N of Puerto Rico?  If so, yes I saw that this morning, as well as the large wave moving west towards the Antilles but I thought if I said anything I would get yelled at so I didn't...
Yes but I understand all focus is over Colin. Nevertheless I see some convection north of PR moving south now. Hope it brings more rain with it
1057. Patrap
Quoting 1050. Bucsboltsfan:



I wouldn't want to be on the Skyway when that line comes through.


Me either. I'd imagine the Skyway will be closed part of tomorrow. I have to go across the Ringling tomorrow morning and again very late tomorrow night and I'm not looking forward to it.
Mark my words (could be wrong) Colin has reformed in the Yuc channel as a new elongated low pressure . It is tilted from its North East side towards the SW. This is now an entirely new system.
But I know not what I speak of. So pay no attention to me and consult your national weather update.
Look at all of those thunderstorms lined up north to south. All of which will impact the West coast of Florida
1061. hullwx
Quoting 1051. daddyjames:



You kidding me? The natives would be outside scooping it up, thinking it was something else . . . .


It's not the natives who would be scooping it up. We know better than to mess with that stuff - we've seen what it does.
Quoting 1049. ElConando:

Funny, it seems like after Colin clears Florida, the heavens open up. 2-3 inches expected in my area Wed-Fri.


True. The forecast for south Florida is to receive more precip from the trough that is steering Colin. After Colin zips off the coast, the trough will stall over south Fla. and drop copious amounts of rain.
Quoting 1044. Dakster:



Same holds true for areas that are used to getting snow. 10' overnight would cripple Anchorage for a day... Granted they are prepared to do "plow outs"...

Can you imagine the highways in South Florida if it snowed...


I don't want to think about it, they're awful enough during rush hour xD
Quoting 1051. daddyjames:



You kidding me? The natives would be outside scooping it up, thinking it was something else . . . .


Mine was not beer but I did spit some Mt Dew all over the place. ROFL
Mean while back at the ranch "Jake from Statefarm" is taking
pictures just in case TS "Colin" goes the wrong way....
Oh and yes he has Kakis on....

Taco :o)

(click to enlarge)
Quoting 1063. ElConando:



I don't want to think about it, they're awful enough during rush hour xD

Lol for sure..
Quoting 1044. Dakster:



Same holds true for areas that are used to getting snow. 10' overnight would cripple Anchorage for a day... Granted they are prepared to do "plow outs"...

Can you imagine the highways in South Florida if it snowed...


An interesting fact here....in Churchill Falls, Labrador, the first time I went there, I was asked the question: Do you notice anything different about our town...took me a bit to figure out that houses are only built on one side of the road. So much snow falls there that they need to be able to put it somewhere!

Lindy
1068. EricSFL
Western Cuba radar:
Link
1069. beell
Quoting 1047. Tazmanian:




i wounder if there are any model run on the low spining this N of PR


I couldn't find any, Taz.

It did get a mention in tonight's 8PM TWD.

a middle to upper level low is centered N of
Puerto Rico near 20N65W that is generating
isolated showers and tstms from 18N-23N between
63W-68W.


1070. Patrap
000
AXNT20 KNHC 052353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 23.4N 87.8W at 06/0000 UTC
or about 400 nm SW of Tampa Florida and about 410 nm SSW of
Apalachicola Florida moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 18N-29N between 81W-88W. See latest NHC
intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N20W to 12N18W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 16W and
22W. No significant deep convection is occurring in the vicinity
of the wave axis at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 06N56W to 14N55W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave is embedded within the ITCZ and coincides with broad 700
mb troughing between 53W-62W on the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge anchored near 18N34W. Scattered moderate
convection from 09N-16N between 52W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 06N37W to 08N59W.
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 07N-12N
between 10W-16W. Scattered moderate is from 06N-12N between 45W-
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary focus for the Gulf is newly updated Tropical Storm
Colin tracking from the south-central portion of the basin N-NE to
the Florida Big Bend region of the NE Gulf by Monday afternoon/
evening. Colin is located NW of an upper level anticyclone
centered over the the NW Caribbean Sea supporting scattered to
numerous showers and scattered tstms across much of the eastern
Gulf...including portions of the Florida peninsula this evening.
To the west of Colin...water vapor imagery indicates an upper
level low centered over northern Mexico that is generating south-
southwesterly flow aloft and marginal wind shear to inhibit any
significant deep convection across the western Gulf. However...the
upper level low along with a negatively-tilted middle to upper
level trough over the eastern Great Lakes region is supporting a
cold front extending across the middle and lower Mississippi River
valley to Galveston Bay near 30N95W to 27N97W and inland across
southern Texas and far northern Mexico. A weak pre-frontal 1009 mb
low is centered near 27N95W with the associated surface trough
extending S from the low to 24N96W. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring generally W of 88W. The track of Colin towards the NE
Gulf will continue to generate increased winds and building seas
across the eastern Gulf through Monday night with heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across central and northern Florida and
southern Georgia through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge is anchored over the NW Caribbean near
20N83W and influences a large area of the basin W of 75W with a
favorable upper level diffluent environment. This environment
along with the presence of Tropical Storm Colin centered in the
south-central Gulf of Mexico is generating scattered to numerous
showers and strong tstms N of 12N W of 81W this evening...
including western Cuba and portions of Central America. In
addition...periods of heavy rainfall with localized flooding are
possible across these areas through Monday as Colin tracks to the
N-NE. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail E of 80W with
generally fair skies this evening. One exception is isolated
showers and tstms across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the
adjacent coastal waters N of 16N between 64W-72W due to a middle
to upper level low centered near 20N66W.

...HISPANIOLA...
Currently isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the
island due to peak daytime heating and instability along with an
upper level low centered near 20N66W. This overall pattern is
expected to persist overnight into Monday with increased
probability of afternoon/evening scattered showers and tstms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Much of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a middle to
upper level ridge and W-NW flow aloft W of 70W. The upper level
ridge axis lies along 81W...with scattered showers and tstms
occurring W of 77W...including much of the Florida peninsula this
evening. The remainder of the region is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by 1018 mb high centered near 29N70W.
Farther southeast...a middle to upper level low is centered N of
Puerto Rico near 20N65W that is generating isolated showers and
tstms from 18N-23N between 63W-68W. Otherwise...the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad subtropical high
pressure area anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 26N41W.
The only exception to the ridging is a weakening cold front
draped within the northeast periphery of the ridge from 32N21W to
28N36W with isolated showers possible within 60 nm either side of
the boundary.

For additional information please visit
www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
Quoting 1038. masonsnana:

I have to admit I was one of those stupid people who always wanted to experience a hurricane until Charley. I pray I will never again


Experiencing a major from afar: flirting - it looks sexy!
Experiencing the fringe effects: dating - what a thrill!
Experiencing a direct hit: marriage - at first its exciting, then it becomes tedious, then comes the hard work.

My analysis may be biased by personal experience. ;)

I'm a little shocked the Weather Channel is live reporting on severe weather
Quoting 1044. Dakster:



Same holds true for areas that are used to getting snow. 10' overnight would cripple Anchorage for a day... Granted they are prepared to do "plow outs"...

Can you imagine the highways in South Florida if it snowed...


I say bring on the snow! You get a snow day! Here in FL they expect you at your desk - it's only a tropical storm... - it's just rain...

Debby flooded "some" areas yet others were just fine. I had to sand bag our doors, but other people kept saying... it's just rain!

Tomorrow I have to drive into work (40 miles from Hudson to Tampa) KNOWING I might have to spend the night! (I will pack a bag.)

I lived in Atlanta for the no-name storm of 1993 we got tons of snow. When I called into work I was told "you are a New Englander you can driver in this". I did. It sucked. But it was melted by the time I had to drive home!
1074. bwi
If you want to take a breather from tropical storm tracking, check out this GFDL sea surface temp seasonal animation. The U.S. Atlantic coast and gulf stream at the beginning and the tropical Atlantic at the end.

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/flash-video?vid=cm26_sst _v7&w=940
Quoting 1055. DoubleBranchGuy:


Nobody with any knowledge whatsoever of what a major will do to Tampa wants that. Is there lots of excitement and attention in the buildup? Yes. But the piles of bodies they will be collecting in the aftermath will scar the region for generations. Those with vision understand that. I was here when Charley was supposed to be the one. The morning I left my boarded up house, ABC28 was saying to expect an 18 ft storm surge where I live later that day. I looked at my house and said goodbye. Then as I drove away, I passed hundreds of single story homes that were going to be submerged. But what really shocked this native North Carolinian and veteran of Hugo, was that the roads were mostly empty. Most had stayed put. Cat 4 storm bringing an 18 ft surge deep into heavy population, and few left. Insanity. Charley took its infamous hard right and we barely got a rain drop. Hundreds, if not thousands, of Tampa Bay lives were spared. But one day...it's not going to turn hard right. Nobody wants that.

I'm more inland but I can't even imagine saying goodbye to my home. We'll said man. Be safe tomorrow
Quoting 1071. daddyjames:



Experiencing a major from afar: flirting - it looks sexy!
Experiencing the fringe effects: dating - what a thrill!
Experiencing a direct hit: marriage - at first its exciting, then it becomes tedious, then comes the hard work.

My analysis may be biased by personal experience. ;)



So true lol
Quoting 1056. nocanesplease:

Yes but I understand all focus is over Colin. Nevertheless I see some convection north of PR moving south now. Hope it brings more rain with it
It's a ULL that's been hanging around there for a while .... a couple of us were talking about it earlier.

Hope PR does get some rain from it....
Jed - about to get hit again.
1079. ncstorm
Green firing in the funktop..

Quoting 1078. Bucsboltsfan:

Jed - about to get hit again.


It is right on my doorstep and there is a lot of rain lining up behind it.

EDIT: It is pouring now, winds picking up
1081. Loduck
Quoting 1044. Dakster:



Same holds true for areas that are used to getting snow. 10' overnight would cripple Anchorage for a day... Granted they are prepared to do "plow outs"...

Can you imagine the highways in South Florida if it snowed...
Sometime in the late 70's (can't remember what year) I lived in Miramar which is just north of Miami and there were flurries. Literally, businesses closed and people freaked...
Quoting 1071. daddyjames:



Experiencing a major from afar: flirting - it looks sexy!
Experiencing the fringe effects: dating - what a thrill!
Experiencing a direct hit: marriage - at first its exciting, then it becomes tedious, then comes the hard work.

My analysis may be biased by personal experience. ;)




You forgot a stage --

The aftermath: Divorce - I am so over you. Get out. Don't ever come back or I'll take out a restraining order.
From south of Cuba to the mouth of Tampa bay.
All aboard...

1084. Patrap
Note the intensity is up



Quoting 1081. Loduck:

Sometime in the late 70's (can't remember what year) I lived in Miramar which is just north of Miami and there were flurries. Literally, businesses closed and people freaked...


January 1977. Walked outside and asked my mom "what is this white stuff falling from the sky".
1086. Patrap
Quoting 1082. flbeachgirl:



You forgot a stage --

The aftermath: Divorce - I am so over you. Get out. Don't ever come back or I'll take out a restraining order.


That's when you move rather than experience it again..
Smooth sailing so far here in Miami. :)
1089. Patrap
Quoting 1084. Patrap:

Note the intensity is up





I still think Colin has a slight chance at becoming a hurricane right before it turns extratropical.
Very dry here in Miami, so far not a drop of rain or wind,after all the hype from our Local Met's the last few days regarding this system,they are always wrong anyways!!, I rely more on this blog than our Local Met's.
nullschool map is showing the COC aligned from surface to 750 hPa, and the 500mb mid-level low off to the NE and open to to NW .... which explains why we're seeing the storms over the Yucatan, [for which, btw, not TC warnings have been posted] and also some wrapping around of the convection.

Quoting 1087. daddyjames:



That's when you move rather than experience it again..


Well...I apparently didn't learn my lesson. Went through Charley, then moved to a nice land-locked (though tornado-prone) area, and now I'm right back down on the SW Florida coast again.
Charlie missed Tampa because of the weakness in the high wasn't as strong as projected.


Quoting 990. Jedkins01:



Actually, if it got a lot stronger, it would go further right, and likely more towards Tampa. Tampa missed Charley, because as tropical cyclones get stronger, they get deeper, thus they become steered more by the east to west movement of a trough. It's also why Wilma was forecast by models at one time to hit Tampa, but it was based on the assumption of it being a category 1, when it strengthened to a 3, models shifted into south Florida.

If for some reason Colin had a freak unexpected deepening to a solid hurricane, it would likely at least come much closer to Tampa, if not the Tampa Bay area itself.
You can see this on the water vapor satellite which shows upper level flow, the mid level circulation and deep convection is trying to head towards Tampa as models expect, hence why we are expected to get a lot more rain than Tallahassee, while the weak shallow center tries to take a path further left due to not feeling the impacts of the westerlies aloft.

Tampa not getting hit in a while is simply a matter of luck, it's all about timing of steering and intensity of the system. The Tampa Bay area is covered with geology that shows a history of major hurricane events such as all the barrier islands and the bluffs of south Clearwater. Also, the Tampa Bay area was hit with 2 major hurricanes in the last 1800's and again in the 1920's, that's 3 major hurricanes with within a pretty short period. Who knows how long active and inactive cycles last. Don't assume we are hurricane proof, because we aren't, we've just been really freaking lucky. So has Miami for quite a while, and south FL is historically the most hurricane prone by a long shot compared to the rest of the U.S. coastline.
1095. Patrap
1096. aquak9
Quoting 1090. HurricaneFan:

I still think Colin has a slight chance at becoming a hurricane right before it turns extratropical.
STAHP!!!
Quoting 1088. MiamiHurricanes09:

Smooth sailing so far here in Miami. :)


Breezy and overcast.
Quoting 1091. Hurricane1956:

Very dry here in Miami, so far not a drop of rain or wind,after all the hype from our Local Met's the last few days regarding this system,they are always wrong anyways!!, I rely more on this blog than our Local Met's.
Rain for Miami comes after Tuesday, IIRC ...
Quoting 1095. Patrap:




You can the MLC firing storms moving NNE.
This cell has taken my rain total from .18 to .42 in about 10 minutes and there is still alot more of it to go with more rain behind it

EDIT: now up to .53. This cell here is similar to the one Jed and Bucs had earlier.
Quoting 1088. MiamiHurricanes09:

Smooth sailing so far here in Miami. :)


We may get a band or two from Colin as it departs into the Atlantic, but that's about it. It'll just be overcast tomorrow. Wed-Fri may get a bit exciting.
Quoting 1077. BahaHurican:

It's a ULL that's been hanging around there for a while .... a couple of us were talking about it earlier.

Hope PR does get some rain from it....


Would you add the Virgin Islands, southern St. Thomas, to your list, please....it's been at least two months with no rain and my cistern is screaming! Really can't do with a water delivery bill right now!

-L

Quoting 1093. flbeachgirl:



Well...I apparently didn't learn my lesson. Went through Charley, then moved to a nice land-locked (though tornado-prone) area, and now I'm right back down on the SW Florida coast again.


Hmm - I did the same. But, in all honesty, I "like" the tornadoes better. At most, an hour or two of apprehension then 15 mins of sheer terror (while the sirens sound). And the kicker is, they can pretty much tell you where it is going.

Better than the long slow grind of August when a storm forms way out at sea and marches across the ocean . . .

However, I may be - may be - in the same boat as you sometime soon . . .
Cat 4 or 5 coming up the mouth of Tampa Bay would be just as a devestating direct hit on New Orleans....overdue is an understatement.

Quoting 1028. RavensFan:


I would like to vote on that and say no, some may but that is not a wishcast I want to come true. Tampa is the last major city that a storm like that to hit. New Orleans and New York out of the way, Tampa is one of the most overdue major cities for a serious hit. Not all in TPA want that...
Quoting 1098. BahaHurican:

Rain for Miami comes after Tuesday, IIRC ...
Thank you for the information!!, in our local forecast we have 80% chance of rain for tomorrow?? or maybe 80% of clouds!
Quoting 1102. LindyVirginIslander:



Would you add the Virgin Islands, southern St. Thomas, to your list, please....it's been at least two months with no rain and my cistern is screaming! Really can't do with a water delivery bill right now!

-L


Sorry to hear that .... thought you guys got some rain around the same time Bonnie was spinning up .... It never ceases to amaze me that it can rain in St. Barts or St. Kitts and not in the Virgins a few miles away .... though I guess I shouldn't be so surprised...
Jacksonville may be another large city over over due... I'll be moving there in the early fall : /
Quoting 1085. daddyjames:



January 1977. Walked outside and asked my mom "what is this white stuff falling from the sky".


there were also flurries on miami beach in 2010...sleet in Orlando.
Quoting 1105. Hurricane1956:

Thank you for the information!!, in our local forecast we have 80% chance of rain for tomorrow?? or maybe 80% of clouds!
I'd take the local forecast seriously. Colin is a sprawling system. Even with the main action well off to your west, it's entirely possible that you'll get some daytime showers that have been "tropically enhanced" ....
Quoting 1103. daddyjames:



Hmm - I did the same. But, in all honesty, I "like" the tornadoes better. At most, an hour or two of apprehension then 15 mins of sheer terror (while the sirens sound). And the kicker is, they can pretty much tell you where it is going.

Better than the long slow grind of August when a storm forms way out at sea and marches across the ocean . . .

However, I may be - may be - in the same boat as you sometime soon . . .


I'm the opposite. I'd much rather have days and days to get prepared. I grew up in Texas and spent too many sleepless nights huddled in a bathtub waiting for the funnel of doom to rip our roof off. When we moved back there, we went through three tornadoes in one summer and we were ready to move back to hurricane country after that.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1112. RevInFL
So far in East Central Florida we had a spritz of rain and it has been breezy. I feel sorry for those of you in Colin's path. I am glad we are escaping this one. Stay safe.
Quoting 1110. flbeachgirl:



I'm the opposite. I'd much rather have days and days to get prepared. I grew up in Texas and spent too many sleepless nights huddled in a bathtub waiting for the funnel of doom to rip our roof off. When we moved back there, we went through three tornadoes in one summer and we were ready to move back to hurricane country after that.


I'm kinda getting tired of the earthquakes here in OK. They have lessened lately, but I don't like the ground moving under my feet. if I am going to experience a rocking sensation, it'll be out on a boat in the ocean . . .
Quoting 1106. BahaHurican:

Sorry to hear that .... thought you guys got some rain around the same time Bonnie was spinning up .... It never ceases to amaze me that it can rain in St. Barts or St. Kitts and not in the Virgins a few miles away .... though I guess I shouldn't be so surprised...


It's ridiculous. For the last four weeks or more, many days were forecasted for 70 to 80 per cent chance of rain, and I'd look out on the water and see the showers just skirt us and head towards Culebra (PR). Such is life on an island.

-L
Quoting 1079. ncstorm:

Green firing in the funktop..


getting all funky
Quoting 1102. LindyVirginIslander:



Would you add the Virgin Islands, southern St. Thomas, to your list, please....it's been at least two months with no rain and my cistern is screaming! Really can't do with a water delivery bill right now!

-L




Same here, the rain is virtually absent since mid may... hopefully not for long.
1118. Pallis1
Quoting 1086. Patrap:

Hey Pat. Missed you. Radar looks like that from above. From below the cooler clouds are 45 degree westwards as per lost daylight. This energy is going to jump off Cozumel in a dramatic fashion. I can't stay up to late. Goodnight all.
Quoting 1106. BahaHurican:

Sorry to hear that .... thought you guys got some rain around the same time Bonnie was spinning up .... It never ceases to amaze me that it can rain in St. Barts or St. Kitts and not in the Virgins a few miles away .... though I guess I shouldn't be so surprised...


And it does happen quite often. Also, the approcahing (decent) T Wave will probably miss us.

May rainfall was near normal overall, but most of the rain fell during the early part of the month.
1120. MahFL
Quoting 1072. masonsnana:

I'm a little shocked the Weather Channel is live reporting on severe weather


They changed direction a few months ago, realised they were showing to many canned shows.
It was in 1977. My parents were closing on a condo that day and they have told me the story of snow in florida a million times

Quoting 1081. Loduck:

Sometime in the late 70's (can't remember what year) I lived in Miramar which is just north of Miami and there were flurries. Literally, businesses closed and people freaked...
Quoting 1081. Loduck:

Sometime in the late 70's (can't remember what year) I lived in Miramar which is just north of Miami and there were flurries. Literally, businesses closed and people freaked...
What are the models showing on the storm that might develop in the Pacific and cross over into the boc