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TD 2-E a heavy rain threat to Mexico; 150th anniversary of only U.S. May hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2013

Tropical depression Two-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 200 miles west-southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border. The storm will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec area over the next 2 - 3 days. Radar out of Puerto Angel, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along portions of the Mexican coast, and satellite loops show an impressive but moderately disorganized area of heavy thunderstorms associated with TD Two-E, with some spiral bands on the storm's south side. With wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30°C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect TD Two-E will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec. The storm is close enough to the coast that it is unlikely a hurricane can form before landfall.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD Two-E.

Development unlikely in the Atlantic this week
If TD Two-E continues to push northwards late this week and cross into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions do not favor development of the disturbance into an Atlantic tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to be quite high over the Gulf late this week. None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic during the next seven days. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific, but is weak and difficult to discern. According to NOAA's May 27 MJO discussion, there is an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation over both the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean this week, and over the Caribbean next week. The GFS model has been trying to spin up a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico next week in a number of its runs over the past few days, but these runs have been very inconsistent on the timing and location of such a development. Tropical cyclone genesis forecasts more than four days out are highly unreliable, and we should just view the GFS model's predictions of a tropical depression next week as a sign that we have an above-average chance of an Atlantic tropical cyclone forming then. The European (ECMWF) model has been much less enthusiastic about a tropical depression forming in the Atlantic next week.


Figure 2. Track of the May 28, 1863 hurricane--the only hurricane on record to hit the U.S. in May. Image credit: Mike Chenoweth and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May
May 28 is the 150th anniversary of the only U.S. hurricane to make landfall in May--the May 28, 1863 hurricane that struck northwest Florida, killing at least 72 people. The hurricane hit nearly two weeks earlier than the next earliest U.S. landfalling hurricane, Hurricane Alma of June 9, 1966. (Tropical Storm Beryl of May 28, 2012 came close to being a May hurricane, bringing 70 mph winds to the coast near Jacksonville Beach, Florida.) According to a new paper by hurricane historians Mike Chenoweth and C. J. Mock, accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, "Among the most unusual and unexpected hurricanes in United States history is the only hurricane to make landfall in the month of May. This recently re-discovered storm that struck northwest Florida on 28 May 1863 created a natural disaster in the area that became lost to history because it was embedded in a much larger and important manmade event, in this case the U.S. Civil War. We document the arrival of this storm both historically and meteorologically and anachronistically name it Hurricane “Amanda” in honor of the Union ship driven ashore by the hurricane. The hurricane revealed deficiencies and strengths in combat readiness by both sides. Meteorologically, the storm nearly achieved major hurricane status at landfall and its absence from modern data bases of tropical cyclone activity is a useful reminder to users of important gaps in our knowledge of tropical cyclones even in the best-sampled storm basins."


Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for Tuesday, May 28, calls for a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over portions of the Midwest. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak from our Severe Weather page.

Multi-day severe weather outbreak in the Midwest continues today
It was an active day for tornadoes in the Midwest on Monday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logging fourteen preliminary tornado reports, mostly in Nebraska and Kansas. No damage or injuries were reported from these tornadoes, as they stayed over unpopulated rural areas. One tornado in North Central Nebraska was intercepted by the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2), which reported EF-3 to EF-4 winds before the tornado ripped off their weather instruments (Video 1.) The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather period all week in the Midwest, with a "Slight Risk" of severe weather Tuesday and Thursday, and a "Moderate Risk" on Wednesday.


Video 1. Stormchasers Brandon Ivey and Sean Casey drove the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV2) into a violent EF-3 or EF-4 wedge tornado northeast of Smith Center, Kansas on Monday, May 27, 2013. They estimated that wind speeds were 150 - 175 mph before the tornado ripped the instruments off the top of the TIV2. This video captures the intensity of the storm as it moves over the TIV2. Since the storm occurred near sunset and the thick clouds blocked out much of the sun, it's tough to see much except thick debris. To license this footage, contact ‪http://www.StormChasingVideo.com‬.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post this morning, The Moore Tornado, describing how the rapid intensification of the May 20, 2013 Moore, Oklahoma tornado occurred.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting belizeit:
Sie mueszen schlafen gehen sonst sind sie morgen zu muede


So very true! Danke!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A mile and a half? Mile and three quarters?

A Mile an a half? Is this Oklahoma tornado?
Oooo... Interesting. Watch could be issued for my area.

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS WITH AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

Quoting allancalderini:
cat1 intensity is not out of the question.


Yeah Bro,the COC is stacked right Now,I don't see any impediment for gradual intensificacion until landfall

Impressive


THIS IS NOT A 40MPH STORM!!!!!!
Hi, guys. I'm in the center of The Dominican Republic. If a hurricane is coming I'll inform you and I'll send you pictures of damages or flooding.
Barbara shouldn't survive into the Bay of Campeche. Land and the upper level environment being her biggest problems. But, the moisture surge Barbara will bring into central America may allow for development we've been anticipating in the Atlantic to occur in the Bay of Campeche now, instead of the western Caribbean. According to the operational GFS, the large amount of moisture she brings into central America will support strong monsoonal action over the continent which (combined with the midlat flow) will center and amplify the upper level anticyclonic flow over this region. This will favor divergent flow in the BOC, and provide unfavorable conditions for the western Caribbean. No guarantees at this point, hard to say if this thing will even have enough time to consolidate before it is pulled out. Lots of rain for central America and Florida though.

18z GFS shear at 5 days

Quoting Ricki13th:
Hello Wunderbloggers, its my first time on here, hope everyone is safe in the Midwest. Tonight looks to be a long one. And we now have Barbara in the EPAC; which regardless of strength is going to create mudslides for Mexico and Central America. Certainly Mother Nature showing its force.


Welcome! I've also recently joined too. It's a perfect time to join with the hurricane season starting up!
I know I am behind the curve on reporting of this but Barbara? WOW! Like 5 hours ago I was checking NHC (around 3pm) and they still had 90% for Barbara and 10% for that other mess further out. Now we have storm 2 in East Pac and the blobulation was bumped to 30%! I know I am foaming at the mouth about when our season will begin here in east central FL because models (and overall global weather patterns similar to 2004) seem to have Florida under the gun right out the gate! If, God forbid we do get hit, I plan to try and post about current conditions if I am safely able to do so (for those other diehards on here like Gro, who, I am sure all this technology is a far cry from runner using leather satchels and papyrus scrolls for info updates)!!
On a personal note I lurk here even in the offseason, but the info and advice from the regulars on here who know their crap has been helpful and educational and I wanted to thank you guys for taking the time to explain things to me!
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yeah Bro,the COC is stacked right Now,I don't see any impediment for gradual intensificacion until landfall

Impressive


THIS IS NOT A 40MPH STORM!!!!!!



this is more like 55mph storm even showing a eye like thing
here in Toronto Ontario we are sitting at 57.7°F dense fog

temps are expected to rise to 68.0°F after midnight with T storms some of which may be severe

Am I the only one that at least sees the possibility of ornogrophic lifting aiding in re-focusing the energy within the axis of the monsoonal gyre causing an anomolous pressure fall in the SW Carib which gains instability as it heads nne towards the Caymans? ...uh duh.
why does it look like Barbara has a decent defined eye!?!? Seems to be stationary according to NHC and an eye seems to indicate strengthening beyond the 40 MPH they have listed.
Quoting Caonabo:
Hi, guys. I'm in the center of The Dominican Republic. If a hurricane is coming I'll inform you and I'll send you pictures of damages or flooding.


we are two!!!
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Am I the only one that at least sees the possibility of ornogrophic lifting aiding in re-focusing the energy within the axis of the monsoonal gyre causing an anomolous pressure fall in the SW Carib which gains instability as it heads nne towards the Caymans? ...uh duh.
wunderkid sees the same thing
Thanks a lot! This year is going to be a busy one! Hope places like Florida and Texas is prepared. Florida in particularly, has not have a cane strike in awhile.
There is a debris ball(according to Dr. Forbes) near Lake Fenton, Michigan. This tornado is headed toward Grand Blanc, MI. I really wish I was on this storm.
Debris ball on the storm in Michigan.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Awesome sat pics Keeper. I believe the heavy rain is coming to parts of our country.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Debris ball on the storm in Michigan.


Weather spotters have a confirmed tornado on the ground. It's about to hit Grand Blanc.
What are the chances of Barbara moving into the gulf of mexico/bay of campeche?Will it get ripped apart by land before it has a chance to do that or it will it get destroyed by wind shear the instant it gets into the bay of campeche/gulf of mexico.
When's the next update on TS Barbara? 11 pm EST or 2 am EST? I forgot the rules...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
When's the next update on TS Barbara? 11 pm EST or 2 am EST? I forgot the rules...

8pm PDT/11pm EDT.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
When's the next update on TS Barbara? 11 pm EST or 2 am EST? I forgot the rules...



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
When's the next update on TS Barbara? 11 pm EST or 2 am EST? I forgot the rules...


Full Advisory coming at 11pm
Quoting Ricki13th:


Full Advisory coming at 11pm



comeing at 8pm not 11pm

Statement as of 9:43 PM EDT on May 28, 2013

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for east central Genesee County until 1015 PM EDT...

At 941 PM EDT... a confirmed tornado was located near Grand Blanc... and moving northeast at 30 mph.

Hazard... damaging tornado.

Source... weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Impact... Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs... windows and vehicles will occur. Flying debris will be deadly to people and animals. Tree damage is likely.

This tornadic storm will be near...
Grand Blanc around 950 PM EDT.
Atlas and Goodrich around 1000 PM EDT.

The warning includes areas surrounding these locations... Grand Blanc... Goodrich...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

To repeat... a tornado is on the ground. Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 4295 8371 4299 8346 4287 8345 4287 8369 4289 8372 time... Mot... loc 0143z 234deg 24kt 4290 8369

Tornado... observed
hail... <.75in


Orow/rbp
How strong does the wind have to be when determining how wide a tornado is? The diameter of 20 mph winds? 58 mph winds? 100 mph winds? What is it?
Quoting wxchaser97:

Weather spotters have a confirmed tornado on the ground. It's about to hit Grand Blanc.

Its getting busy up here in south Michigan and NE Illinois....

There was a torando warning E of Lansing near my workplace...I actually had to wait for the tornado signature to dissipate to make sure it was good to drive home...I don't think it touched down....

Brief torando warning near Flint, MI not too long ago...

Then we have a tornado moving into Grand Blanc, MI right now with debris ball....is their a tornado emergency issued?

Their is also a tornado warning in Joliet not far outside Chicago...anyone noticed?
Quoting Tazmanian:



comeing at 8pm not 11pm



Oh Im Sorry! I meant 11pm eastern time.
Look like the tornado TIV-2 ran into is an EF-3 at 140 mph, which surprised me. TIV-2 claimed that the winds were 150-175 mph before instruments failure. We'll see if they update the tornado to higher wind speed or not.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=gid&storyid=94965&source=0
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 290120Z - 290315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS WITH AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...PROBABLY AIDED BY A DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER SCALE RIDGING...A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING SOUTHWEST OF
CHICAGO INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT RAPID...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS NOTED IN
LIGHTNING TRENDS...AND WDSS 5/9 KM CAPPI DATA. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER /1.5-1.75+ INCHES/ EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION MAY MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH
30-40+ KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW... COUPLED WITH PRECIPITATION
LOADING...COULD CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND
NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN NOW AND 03-05Z.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 05/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 42048731 42708588 43058424 43058245 42088152 41228275
40658553 40478675 40658762 41308784 42048731
Quoting Ricki13th:


Oh Im Sorry! I meant 11pm eastern time.



no its comeing out at 8pm


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.



Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Just googled Grand Island and that is just bizarre.

Just noticed that the Wikipedia page was loaded with discrepancies when compared to the official NWS page on the event. So if you looked there, it might have had some bad info. I altered it based upon verifiable NWS data.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
How strong does the wind have to be when determining how wide a tornado is? The diameter of 20 mph winds? 58 mph winds? 100 mph winds? What is it?
They determine tornado's width by how wide damaged area is, but I'm not completely sure on this. Will have to see what Scott got to say.
The bloggers are out in force! They're coming to get you Bar-bar-a!
Quoting Tazmanian:



no its comeing out at 8pm


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.



That's 8 pm PACIFIC TIME.
Quoting Ricki13th:


Oh Im Sorry! I meant 11pm eastern time.
You got it right. Taz is confused by time zones.
Damage area--that's pretty vague. What is damage? A few shingles and small branches down? structural damage? Structural damage to a fixed house or a trailer? It seems so subjective.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Its getting busy up here in south Michigan and NE Illinois....

There was a torando warning E of Lansing near my workplace...I actually had to wait for the tornado signature to dissipate to make sure it was good to drive home...I don't think it touched down....

Brief torando warning near Flint, MI not too long ago...

Then we have a tornado moving into Grand Blanc, MI right now with debris ball....is their a tornado emergency issued?

Their is also a tornado warning in Joliet not far outside Chicago...anyone noticed?

The Grand Blanc storm had a PDS tornado warning earlier, just a regular tornado warning now. Rotation looks to have thankfully weakened. The structure is not in the typical direction... Also will probably get woken up be storms tonight. I still haven't got anything exciting.
ADVISORY for E pac storms come out at 8PM not 11PM like for Atlantic storms
Rainbow Loop

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
How strong does the wind have to be when determining how wide a tornado is? The diameter of 20 mph winds? 58 mph winds? 100 mph winds? What is it?


Don't have an official source for this answer, but one would think they measure the width of a Tornado from the 2 widest points where EF-0 damage is observed. Still searching for a link.
Quoting Tazmanian:
ADVISORY for E pac storms come out at 8PM not 11PM like for Atlantic storms

8pm Pacific Daylight Time (PDT), not Eastern Daylight Time (EDT). So for us on the east coast it still comes out at 11pm.
Quoting wxchaser97:

The Grand Blanc storm had a PDS tornado warning earlier, just a regular tornado warning now. Rotation looks to have thankfully weakened. The structure is not in the typical direction... Also will probably get woken up be storms tonight. I still haven't got anything exciting.


Don't worry...nothing exciting for me either...that adjacent tornado warning near my workplace quickly fizzled...so other than a brief period of dark skies I didn't get much action.....

Yeah...I did see your post earlier tonight from the SPC...looks like the MCS over Chicago may translate here with possible damaging winds for you & me tonight...

835
WFUS54 KAMA 290154
TORAMA
TXC117-359-290230-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0005.130529T0154Z-130529T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
854 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 851 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOOTLEG...OR 34 MILES WEST
OF HEREFORD. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
SIMMS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3528 10277 3491 10258 3484 10304 3511 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 252DEG 17KT 3498 10294
Quoting Caonabo:
Hi, guys. I'm in the center of The Dominican Republic. If a hurricane is coming I'll inform you and I'll send you pictures of damages or flooding.


Wlcome aboard.

I am in the Turks and Caicos to your North, and I look forward to any reports you give from the DR.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Don't worry...nothing exciting for me either...that adjacent tornado warning near my workplace quickly fizzled...so other than a brief period of dark skies I didn't get much action.....

Yeah...I did see your post earlier tonight from the SPC...looks like the MCS over Chicago may translate here with possible damaging winds for you & me tonight...

I was excited for that cell as it was aimed directly at SE Oakland County, and then it went poof. I'm sure the MCS will find a way to weaken or move around me as usual >:(
Quoting IceCoast:


Don't have an official source for this answer, but one would think they measure the width of a Tornado from the 2 widest points where EF-0 damage is observed. Still searching for a link.


Seems like that is hard to identify in a severe thunderstorm where there can be a lot of 60-70 mph gusts causing minor damage anyway. Although they can identify wind direction to keep from confusing it with straight line winds.
557. Hugo5
Two active cells that need watching, The first being the cell near Amarillo TX, Second cell in Kansas

just 5 and 10 knots of shear


850 mb
not too shabby
EP022013 - Tropical Storm BARBARA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting wxchaser97:

I was excited for that cell as it was aimed directly at SE Oakland County, and then it went poof. I'm sure the MCS will find a way to weaken or move around me as usual >:(


LOL...I prefer things that way...just some pop-up t-storms is nice and relaxing...just like the summers back where I grew up in NC...
Near Byron, Michigan earlier:

***Poll***: Does the recent trend in organization merit a hurricane watch at any time before Barbara's landfall?
Quoting Patrap:
Rainbow Loop



Heavy convection wrap around the center. However ever its still has land and dry impeding its NW quadrant. However this looks like a 50 mph storm in the next advisory. Still looking at a peak at 60-65 before landfall.
Storms coming off the lake. It's strong over by Chicago and to the southwest.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Seems like that is hard to identify in a severe thunderstorm where there can be a lot of 60-70 mph gusts causing minor damage anyway. Although they can identify wind direction to keep from confusing it with straight line winds.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Seems like that is hard to identify in a severe thunderstorm where there can be a lot of 60-70 mph gusts causing minor damage anyway. Although they can identify wind direction to keep from confusing it with straight line winds.


Yes i'm sure the surveyors take into account the wind direction and type of damage that is observed in relation to straight line or rotational winds. In addition first hand accounts form storm chaser and the general public is useful information to determine if it was indeed tornado damage.
567. Hugo5
cell near beloit and osborne ks looks to have a pretty good hook, suprised no warning is out.
Quoting FutureWx6221:
***Poll***: Does the recent trend in organization merit a hurricane watch at any time before Barbara's landfall?


I would do it to be safe. With the way Barbara is going, anything is possible.
Quoting Tazmanian:
ADVISORY for E pac storms come out at 8PM not 11PM like for Atlantic storms
It's the same. They both comes out at 8 pm PACIFIC TIME/11 pm EASTERN TIME. No differences.



I'll let you guys be the judge here, what does Barbara look like to you on the Dvorak scale?

I'm thinking at least 3, but more likely 3.5, which puts it at 50-55 knots.
I think she peaks at 90mph
WFUS53 KDTX 290203
TORDTX
MIC087-290300-
/O.NEW.KDTX.TO.W.0005.130529T0203Z-130529T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1003 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LAPEER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

* AT 958 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GOODRICH...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HADLEY AROUND 1015 PM EDT.
METAMORA AROUND 1025 PM EDT.
THORNVILLE AROUND 1030 PM EDT.
DRYDEN AND ATTICA AROUND 1040 PM EDT.
IMLAY CITY AROUND 1045 PM EDT.
ALMONT AROUND 1050 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
METAMORA... IMLAY CITY... HADLEY...
DRYDEN... ALMONT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 4289 8299 4288 8327 4288 8345 4302 8345
4308 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 264DEG 26KT 4292 8350

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

OROW/RBP
@NHCDirector 2m

Winds of a #hurricane not just a beach problem. Hugo 1989 brought hurricane-force winds to Charlotte, NC


Yeah, my mom was in a college in Charlotte area when Hugo came in 1989. She spent the night in a building that had the basement flooding nearly up to the first floor. Her stories of her survival that night when I was young triggered my interests in meteorology.
Quoting FutureWx6221:
***Poll***: Does the recent trend in organization merit a hurricane watch at any time before Barbara's landfall?
No. I know Barbara is impressive, but I still don't think it'll reach hurricane strength.
The cell near Amarillo is looking nasty too.
Link
T2, Row 4.

Quoting FutureWx6221:



I'll let you guys be the judge here, what does Barbara look like to you on the Dvorak scale?

I'm thinking at least 3, but more likely 3.5, which puts it at 50-55 knots.
Oh wow

SevereStudios ‏@severestudios 1m

Law enforcement reports house leveled northwest of Lake Fenton, MI from earlier tornado.
People in the midwest region dealing with the tornado outbreak and in Mexico with a strengthening cyclone stay safe. Goodnight everyone!!!
Quoting FutureWx6221:



I'll let you guys be the judge here, what does Barbara look like to you on the Dvorak scale?

I'm thinking at least 3, but more likely 3.5, which puts it at 50-55 knots.

Wow Barbara is getting up there
Barbara's rawT is 3.5, the final Tnumber is 2.1

The scene is a curved band. The center of circulation is building but that isn't an eye yet.
Large cone tornado in the Texas Panhandle.
582. Hugo5
easy to see hook on the back of the amarillo cell now.
Landslide in Mexico on Tuesday, 28 May, 2013 at 03:16 (03:16 AM) UTC.
Description
At least seven people were killed on the Mexico-Queretaro highway in central Mexico, after a landslide buried several vehicles, the Federal Police confirmed Monday. The landslide occurred in Tepeji del Rio municipality in the central state of Hidalgo, due to strong rain and hail on Sunday night. Tons of soil and mud trapped at least five vehicle which were passing the highway at the moment of the landslide. Those killed were three men and two women who were in a taxi, as well as one woman and one man in a red van. Four other passengers of the red van were injured and taken to San Jose hospital in Naucalpan, state of Mexico. People from Tepeji del Rio are trying to clean their homes, as the storm had damaged 150 houses. Mexico's Federal Highway Police, the Ministry of Communications and Transporting, the Army and rescue teams from the state of Mexico and from Mexico City, were helping in the cleaning work and removing disaster rubble.
Hailstorm in the same place as that landslide.

Hailstorm in Mexico on Tuesday, 28 May, 2013 at 15:20 (03:20 PM) UTC.
Description
A hailstorm in Tepeji, Mexico, left seven people dead, four injured and 300 homes damaged, officials said. The storm struck the downtown area for about an hour on Sunday, officials said. The hailstorm softened a hill, causing an avalanche that fell onto a taxi carrying five people and a van with two occupants. The travelers were killed, El Universal reported. Mayor Fernando Miranda said that homes and schools suffered structural damage and that floodwater in many areas was six-feet deep. Assistant Secretary of Civil Protection and Risk Management, Miguel Garcia, said that the storm was exacerbated by a lack of infrastructure in the city. He said the city is building a rainwater collector to help during storms. It will be finished in 2014, Garcia said.
@28storms 1m

Goodrich, Michigan: People reportedly trapped in a high school & in homes. Trees & wires down in area. #MIwx
TX Panhandle.. west of Amarillo.

by the looks of it the COC of Barbara is now 14.2N 95.7W if this is so then I got to tell ya Barbara is moving E BUT Slowly before it was 14.2N 96.0W and before that is was 14.2N 96.5W so its moving
----------> that way
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of it the COC of Barbara is now 14.2N 95.7W if this is so then I got to tell ya Barbara is moving E BUT Slowly before it was 14.2N 96.0W and before that is was 14.2N 96.5W so its moving
----------> that way

Still I do expect it to start movin N soon
Barbara is up to 45 mph.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Extreme Weather in Brazil on Tuesday, 28 May, 2013 at 02:59 (02:59 AM) UTC.
Description
Part of the roof of a brand new stadium that will be used for the upcoming Confederations Cup collapsed in the northeastern Brazilian city of Salvador Monday following heavy rains. Officials said no injuries were reported and only the eastern sector of Arena Fonte Nova which will also host World Cup games next year was damaged. "Following heavy downpours on Salvador early Monday, water accumulated in the 36 panels of the roof's (plastic) membrane located in the eastern sector, triggering its collapse," Fonte Nova Participacoes, the agency that manages the stadium, said in a statement. It added that equipment damaged in the collapse was being tested to determine the cause of the mishap and its impact on the roof structure as well as assess what repairs are needed,
That is nice looking hooker in Amarillo...

Stay safe.
593. Hugo5
radar showing two tornados now near amarillo


second one has now dropped
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1030 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BENTON HARBOR TO COVERT TO
BLOOMINGDALE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAUGATUCK... ALLEGAN... KALAMAZOO...
BANGOR... DECATUR... PAW PAW...
FENNVILLE... SCHOOLCRAFT... PLAINWELL...
WAYLAND... RICHLAND... LACOTA...
LAWRENCE... HAMILTON TWP... GANGES...
Barbara late track models.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Barbara is up to 45 mph.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

wow I was close I had 14.2N 95.7W and NHC says 14.5N 95.7W though I didn't really see any N movements until last frames
Sooo..the GFS is doing a CMC?..he he..dont seem so crazy now..

63 hours




NHC shifted cone E and S and dissipating Barbara quicker than before

#2


#1A


#1
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE EVEN SHOWN AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 35 KT AT 0000 UTC...BUT THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY SINCE THAT TIME TO START
WITH AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

A LITTLE BIT OF RELOCATION OF THE CENTER WAS REQUIRED BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE DATA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT BARBARA NOW HAS A
MOTION OF 030/3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
CENTER OF BARBARA INLAND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN A NARROW
ZONE OF NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER EXTREMELY WARM
WATER ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF BARBARA...ITS RELATIVELY SMALL INNER CORE...AND THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...A FAIRLY STEEP INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE STORM REACHES THE
COAST. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING A TREND OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN
THE VERY SHORT-TERM...AND BRINGS BARBARA TO 55 KT IN 12 HOURS.
BARBARA COULD GAIN A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...BUT TIME WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. QUICK WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF BARBARA AND ITS REMNANTS...AS
WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...THE
BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.5N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.3N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.7N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 17.9N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
601. Hugo5
tornado debris cloud on radar for amarillo
Amarillo
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range 124 NMI

sounds like a sad miserable dead for Barbara after landfall expect to dissipate in 48 hours if not sooner
Quoting Hugo5:
tornado debris cloud on radar for amarillo


Any tv links?

077
WFUS54 KAMA 290257
TORAMA
TXC117-359-290330-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0007.130529T0257Z-130529T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
957 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 951 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF SIMMS...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
VEGA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
VEGA... SIMMS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 37.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3537 10251 3505 10228 3497 10268 3514 10282
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 239DEG 16KT 3509 10264
606. Hugo5
im watching this from afghanistan
Patrap is that a populated area in your storm tracker?

I hope not...
Hugo are you in the US Military?
Quoting Dakster:
Patrap is that a populated area in your storm tracker?

I hope not...


Amarillo, TX wundermap
610. Hugo5
Quoting Dakster:
Hugo are you in the US Military?


yes, to both questions. the tornado is in the suburbs of amarillo. no local news reports that i am pulling up.
612. Hugo5
looks like city of Vega is in direct path, or very close. storm also appears to be weakening
Video from the Dominator crew of the massive tornado near Bennington, KS.

Quoting wxchaser97:

The Grand Blanc storm had a PDS tornado warning earlier, just a regular tornado warning now. Rotation looks to have thankfully weakened. The structure is not in the typical direction... Also will probably get woken up be storms tonight. I still haven't got anything exciting.
That's because I'm over here in Farmington focusing on keeping the weather as boring as possible. Sorry!
616. Hugo5
very interested to see what this tornado is on the scale.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT

* AT 1048 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLOMA...

AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
OSHTEMO WERE STRENGTHENING.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KALAMAZOO... DECATUR... BANGOR...
PAW PAW... RICHLAND... SCHOOLCRAFT...
PORTER TWP... MCDONALD... KENDALL...
LAWRENCE... LAWTON... GOBLES...
KEELER... GLENDALE... MATTAWAN...

...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

My husbands family is in Amarillo, talking to MIL now, she said the tornado has not made it to Amarillo yet. Had strong gusty winds earlier today. Its about 20-30 miles away now.
Quoting Hugo5:
im watching this from afghanistan


Link

drop by my page to mark my vistor map

thanks in advance
Quoting Hugo5:


yes, to both questions. the tornado is in the suburbs of amarillo. no local news reports that i am pulling up.


Thanks for your service - stay safe and come back home.

Amarillo only spans 2 counties north and south, Potter and Randall. Deaf Smith and Oldham are to the west and Amarillo are not a part of those counties.
623. Hugo5
I hate to say this, but according to the supper doppler from the link the rotation has gone up, and the tornado appears to be headed to the center of Vege tx.
This is a picture of the multi-vortex tornado near Byron, Michigan earlier. It reminds me of the '65 Palm Sunday tornado with a smaller cone and then a main wedge-like tornado.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...
NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
NORTHERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1215 AM EDT

* AT 1112 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KALAMAZOO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.
HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATTLE CREEK...RICHLAND...NASHVILLE...GALESBURG...AUGUSTA ...HICKORY
CORNERS...SPRINGFIELD...BANFIELD...BEDFORD...DOWL ING...LACEY...

ASSYRIA...MORROW LAKE...HOWLANDSBURG...HIGHLAND PARK...YORKVILLE...
GULL LAKE...FORT CUSTER...LEVEL PARK AND BEADLE LAKE.

...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
Rotation isn't that impressive. Also, it's going to miss Vera, TX. On path toward Amarillo, but it's still a long way to go before arriving to city.
Any clue how big that tornado is heading to Vega, TX?
628. Hugo5
good picture

http://www.newschannel10.com/category/181782/stor mtrack-10-interactive-radar
Good Night Peeps - Stay Safe - Stay Dry - Stay Warm
Fenton, MI. They're having a bad night tonight, this is just east of almost my entire family.
I have a feeling Babara could get very close to hurricane strength if not hit the 75 mph mark right before landfall
Not trying to burst anyones bubble here, but the radar indicated rotation is WELL SOUTH of Vega, Texas...probably by at least a dozen miles. It's hard to tell with texas size counties.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Fenton, MI. They're having a bad night tonight, this is just north of almost my entire family.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a picture of the multi-vortex tornado near Byron, Michigan earlier. It reminds me of the '65 Palm Sunday tornado with a smaller cone and then a main wedge-like tornado.



Well I was going to post those pics but I'm slow. It will be interesting to see what this tornado is rated. Hope your family didn't get impacted.
T.C.F.W.
R.I.FLAG OFF
02E/TS/B/CX
MARK
14.25N/95.95W
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Fenton, MI. They're having a bad night tonight, this is just east of almost my entire family.

Yeah, that's very scary. I also have several family members who live a couple miles south of the affected areas.
storms heading towards my area here in scar

Quoting Ameister12:

Yeah, that's very scary. I also have several family members who live a couple miles south of the affected areas.


My family lives around Lansing, just north of it. Fenton is east of Lansing as I recall from my last visit.
Rotation has weakened significantly on that Panhandle cell, and its well out in the hinterlands...shouldn't harm many people unless you are unfortunate enough to be driving down a country road at night or you just happen to be one of the few folks who has a ranch in that region.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
storms heading towards my area here in scar


Keeper, you're in Toronto, right?

Puerto Angel radar
Quoting AussieStorm:

Keeper, you're in Toronto, right?
just ne of Toronto in scarbrough
ACCN10 CWTO 282020
Forecast of thunderstorm potential for the province of Ontario
Issued by Environment Canada at 3:57 PM EDT Tuesday 28 May 2013.
The next statement will be issued at 4:00 AM Wednesday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Forecast of thunderstorm potential.

Tonight..A few non-severe thunderstorms are expected over
Southwestern and South Central Ontario with heavy downpours likely.
Local amounts of 30 to 40 millimetres are possible with
thunderstorms. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over
Southwestern Ontario with torrential downpours and damaging winds as
the main threats. Chance of a non-severe thunderstorm along the
Manitoba border and over Eastern Ontario.

Wednesday..Isolated thunderstorms are expected over Southern and
Eastern Ontario. There is slight risk that some of these storms may
be severe, especially near the Lower Great Lakes, with torrential
downpours, damaging winds and hail as the main threats. Chance of a
non-severe thunderstorm over Northeastern Ontario near Northern Lake
Huron early in the day and over Northwestern Ontario in the
Afternoon and evening.

Thursday..Chance of non-severe thunderstorms from northwestern
Across Northeastern Ontario to south central and into Eastern
Ontario. A thunderstorm or two over southwestern and Eastern Ontario
may approach severe limits. Heavy downpours, gusty winds and small
hail would be the main concerns.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
A thunderstorm is defined as severe if it produces one or more of the
following:

- wind gusts of 90 km/h or greater.
- hail of 2 centimetres in diameter or greater.
- rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres or greater in one hour or less.
- a tornado.

Note: this forecast is issued twice daily from May 1 to September 30.

END/OSPC
DEAF SMITH TX-OLDHAM TX-
1048 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
OLDHAM AND NORTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1045 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILDORADO...OR 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF VEGA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE
TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP
TO BASEBALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OLDHAM AND NORTHEASTERN
DEAF SMITH COUNTIES.
image center over my general area

THAT AMARILLO TORNADO SEEMS TO JUST KEEP GOING
they all seem to keep going evening/tonight
convection is increasing in the W Caribbean now
BREAKING: People are trapped in a bar that collapsed near Grand Blanc, MI, in a #tornado around 9:30pm, Tues. Rescue underway - @TWCBreaking

Sounds kind of bad.
Rotation for Texas tornado is still not impressive though...

NWS Norman on Twitter is thinking the chance for tornadoes is increasing especially for Western Oklahoma.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1100 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OLDHAM COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1059 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF WILDORADO...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF VEGA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
BUSHLAND...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 120.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 68.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Looks very good.

Nice curved band and a developing inner core:

659. DDR
0z gfs continuing with the rains in and around T&T.
Evening night crew.

Rain is down heavily here in my area of New Providence. I missed the late night weather forecast here, but it seems forecasters are continuing to warn about extensive flooding.

I notice quite a few of our bloggers are under the gun tonight. I hope everybody stays safe out there...
http://www.connectamarillo.com/news/video.aspx#.UaV _3tiTU3I Check this out the meteorologist in Amarillo telling viewers they can sleep well tonight as the storms will be gone by then
Quoting Hugo5:
im watching this from afghanistan
I'm assuming rather drier there than here right now...
Eye aye.

Quoting floridaT:
http://www.connectamarillo.com/news/video.aspx#.U aV _3tiTU3I Check this out the meteorologist in Amarillo telling viewers they can sleep well tonight as the storms will be gone by then
Well, they only got one more cell with tornado warning in it and it's over. However, it's pretty premature of that meteorologist to be telling people they're safe. You never know if tornado is going to forms again. Rotation is not very impressive, but it's not done either.
Hey baha!

Sorry about the minus...I was trying to plus your post but I accidentaly press the minus option.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye aye.


I'm happy that this radar is back up as it will give us the best view of what's going on with Barbara.
Quoting nigel20:
Hey baha!

Sorry about the minus...I was trying to plus your post but I accidentaly press the minus option.


More spacing on those would be nice. I accidentally hit the minus button once on one of Dr. Masters' posts. Didn't mean it.


Looks like Dmin hit the wx impacting our area... now wondering if the storms over the WCar and Central America will persist since Barbara is now consolidating so nicely...

Also interesting to note that most of the rain around the basin is related to upper level features...

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY TO NEAR
31N74W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 75W. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THEN DISSIPATING ALONG 32N58W TO
29N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1030 MB HIGH IS N
OF BERMUDA WITH A 1035 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC JUST N OF THE
AZORES. W ATLC HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH WED. A
TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS FLORIDA WED THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SAT. T

This is from the 8 p.m. TWD.

Quoting nigel20:
Hey baha!

Sorry about the minus...I was trying to plus your post but I accidentaly press the minus option.
You can always plus another one to make it even.... only don't let the finger slip... lol

I'm still trying to figure out how pple read and POST to the blog from a cell phone... they must know something I don't...
I hope people in Amarillo know about this storm...
Is is not raining in S FL? My Wunderground widget says clear for the Ft. Lauderdale area, but the satellite is showing full cloud cover...
Impressive thunderstorms over central Africa




TORNADO WARNING
TXC375-381-290500-
/O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0010.130529T0428Z-130529T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN RANDALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...
SOUTHERN POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUSHLAND...OR 12 MILES WEST
OF AMARILLO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
AMARILLO... BUSHLAND...


THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 114 AND 123.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 55 AND 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Quoting BahaHurican:
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY TO NEAR
31N74W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 75W. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THEN DISSIPATING ALONG 32N58W TO
29N62W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1030 MB HIGH IS N
OF BERMUDA WITH A 1035 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC JUST N OF THE
AZORES. W ATLC HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH WED. A
TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS FLORIDA WED THEN REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SAT. T

This is from the 8 p.m. TWD.

You can always plus another one to make it even.... only don't let the finger slip... lol

I'm still trying to figure out how pple read and POST to the blog from a cell phone... they must know something I don't...

Yeah, lol...
Amarillo is under tornado warning. Rotation is still not healthy, but tornado could drops anytime. If it's not tornado that will hurt you, it's hail. 3 inches hail is reported for that cell.
Very large hail headed straight for Amarillo. The city is also under a tornado warning. Bad night.

Good night.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye aye.



Eye is probably trying to form there, yes. For now that is not an eye. There is no well-defined ring of thunderstorms. I hope we aren't starting the premature eye declaration stuff all over again.
Talked to MIL earlier in Amarillo, lots of damage from earlier this afternoon, power lines down, signs blown out etc....have not heard from her since about 10 pm central time. Anxiously awaiting word.
Quoting Grothar:
Impressive thunderstorms over central Africa




Headed our way eventually, I would imagine.

Did u see my question above?

Ah... the rain is down again... I have a feeling locations east of here, especially Eleuthera, are getting absolutely soaked...
Barbara is looking really good and getting really high cloud tops starting to see white spots coming out on rainbow loop
Quoting BahaHurican:
Is is not raining in S FL? My Wunderground widget says clear for the Ft. Lauderdale area, but the satellite is showing full cloud cover...


No rain here at all. Just very cloudy hot, humid, and 11 million mosquitoes.
There is a tornado on ground entering Amarillo. Crap...

@TxStormChasers: 11:40 PM: #Tornado confirmed by spotters near 45th Avenue and Soncy Road on the west side of Amarillo. #txwx
Quoting TomTaylor:


Eye is probably trying to form there, yes. For now that is not an eye. There is no well-defined ring of thunderstorms. I hope we aren't starting the premature eye declaration stuff all over again.


Did you say premature?

Let me get warmed up here,

*cough* I SEES IT GUYS! AN EYE!!
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

TXC375-381-290500-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130529T0500Z/
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL RANDALL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1136 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE REPORTING A TORNADO NEAR 45TH AVENUE AND
SONCY ROAD. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
AMARILLO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
AMARILLO...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 123.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 80.
http://www.newschannel10.com/category/182022/super- doppler-online Using Metro map on the right with Rotation checked. On a scale of 1-10 the tornado entering Amarillo has risen from a 1 to a 3. There's another @3 NE of Amarillo.
Live Coverage in Amarillo:
http://myhighplains.com/news/livestream
Baseball size hail reported in Amarillo. NWS mets confirmed tornado in the city.
Quoting Grothar:


No rain here at all. Just very cloudy hot, humid, and 11 million mosquitoes.


Come up north a little bit, that late winter and lingering cold so far has kept the bugs at bay, if not killed off some of them.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
There is a tornado on ground entering Amarillo. Crap...

@TxStormChasers: 11:40 PM: #Tornado confirmed by spotters near 45th Avenue and Soncy Road on the west side of Amarillo. #txwx


That's not good. Hope people are still watching the weather rather than taking that earlier "all clear" signal serious.
Also, congrats on your new job.
WOW anyone listening to that livestream I put up, the news station is going crazy, hearing tornado outside they are saying.
Quoting TomTaylor:


Eye is probably trying to form there, yes. For now that is not an eye. There is no well-defined ring of thunderstorms. I hope we aren't starting the premature eye declaration stuff all over again.


There's no eye yet, but a warm spot has been evident in infrared and microwave images on a periodic basis.
Quoting Grothar:


No rain here at all. Just very cloudy hot, humid, and 11 million mosquitoes.
You can keep the humidity and the mosquitoes, tyvm... it's remarkably cool here for the last week in May. Quite a different feel to the air from true hurricane / TS rain, which is hot water falling through hot air... And I expect as soon as this system is through here, the horrid humidity will begin...
Quoting Astrometeor:


Come up north a little bit, that late winter and lingering cold so far has kept the bugs at bay, if not killed off some of them.



That's not good. Hope people are still watching the weather rather than taking that earlier "all clear" signal serious.
Also, congrats on your new job.
Thanks. I think this is just a major hail event going on in Amarillo. There's no clear rotation on radar, but you never know.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
There is a tornado on ground entering Amarillo. Crap...

@TxStormChasers: 11:40 PM: #Tornado confirmed by spotters near 45th Avenue and Soncy Road on the west side of Amarillo. #txwx
Geez... right after the wx guy says, "Sleep tight, guys, nothing to see here..."

Wonder how long after this he's going to keep that job.

Basically, mets on new station in Amarillo left for basement with the radar still running. Tornado reported to be 2 miles SW of downtown Amarillo.
Quoting BahaHurican:


Looks like Dmin hit the wx impacting our area... now wondering if the storms over the WCar and Central America will persist since Barbara is now consolidating so nicely...

Also interesting to note that most of the rain around the basin is related to upper level features...


as soon as Barbara hit land most of its storms will eventually end up in the gulf of honduras
Now there's no confirmed reports of tornado in Amarillo. Might be a good news. Hail is just as deadly as tornado however so stay indoor.

@TxStormChasers 1m

11:51 PM: Several reports of up to baseball size hail in Amarillo. No confirmed reports of a tornado in the city at this time. #txwx
That should be right over Amarillo right now.


Quoting Grothar:
That should be right over Amarillo right now.


It's completely over Amarillo now. It's hailing pretty badly there, but tornado reports stop coming in.

Hail from Amarillo area few minutes ago...

Link
Quoting Astrometeor:


Come up north a little bit, that late winter and lingering cold so far has kept the bugs at bay, if not killed off some of them.



That's not good. Hope people are still watching the weather rather than taking that earlier "all clear" signal serious.
Also, congrats on your new job.


I just got back from Northern PA a few days ago. It was near 90 everyday.
livestream says there were power flashes in SW Amarillo.
Tornado warning expired. Not renewed so Amarillo is safe from tornado. However, widespread reports of hail more than 1.5 inches is coming in. Hails are still damaging!
Where are all the people who said this would never develop???



MIL just contacted me, they just had quarter inch hail, no other damage that they know of around their home. They are older so unless water is pouring into the house or they hear something large hit the roof they won't go out and check until morning.
Quoting KoritheMan:


There's no eye yet, but a warm spot has been evident in infrared and microwave images on a periodic basis.
Yes, and for some reason some insist on calling this an eye. I know an eye is trying to form there, that is the center of the storm, but is there an eye? No, not yet...hopefully TA was pointing out that that is where the eye will be, and not actually playing the iSpy the eye game.

It shouldn't really matter, it's a technicality, but when the "eye" becomes temporarily obscured (because it was never truly defined by a strong ring of thunderstorms previously) people say "where'd the eye go?". Some people do rely on this blog for their information, let's try and keep it at least somewhat accurate.
Quoting BahaHurican:
You can keep the humidity and the mosquitoes, tyvm... it's remarkably cool here for the last week in May. Quite a different feel to the air from true hurricane / TS rain, which is hot water falling through hot air... And I expect as soon as this system is through here, the horrid humidity will begin...

I saw this picture ( Carmichael Road) on Tribune242 twitter page earlier today
Link
Quoting Grothar:
Where are all the people who said this would never develop???





I'm not trying to brag, but I have been nothing less than totally consistent from the start with a forecast for rapid intensification near the coast. The environment was just too favorable, and I don't forecast rapid intensification on a regular basis. Seeing as though it has another 18-24 hours over water and appears to be developing an inner core, we haven't actually seen anything yet. I'm doing a blog right now, and I anticipate a 60 kt tropical storm at landfall tomorrow evening, but I would place the odds of Barbara reaching minimal hurricane status at 15%.

Now to be fair, I did kind of consider this morning that it might not develop into anything beyond a minimal tropical storm because it kept having organization issues, but I never surrendered the likelihood of development in my forecasts. It's kind of amazing how after all these years, some people still aren't patient with this stuff; the cyclogenesis process takes time.
Quoting Grothar:
Where are all the people who said this would never develop???




It just goes to show how quickly these storms can develop or intensify.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not trying to brag, but I have been nothing less than totally consistent from the start with a forecast for rapid intensification near the coast. Seeing as though it has another 18-24 hours over water and appears to be developing an inner core, we haven't actually seen anything yet. I'm doing a blog right now, and I anticipate a 60 kt tropical storm at landfall tomorrow evening, but I would place the odds of Barbara reaching minimal hurricane status at 15%.

Now to be fair, I did kind of consider this morning that it might not develop into anything beyond a minimal tropical storm because it kept having organization issues, but I never surrendered the likelihood of development in my forecasts. It's kind of amazing how after all these years, some people still aren't patient with this stuff; the cyclogenesis process takes time.


I saw you writing about it. You're a good boy. :)
Time (EDT) Temp. Dew Point Humidity Pressure Visibility Wind Dir Wind Speed Gust Speed Precip Events Conditions
12:00 AM 73.4 °F 69.8 °F 88% 30.10 in - East 6.9 mph - N/A Rain Rain

Still waiting for 1 am...
Very cold cloud tops continue to appear on conventional IR imagery. The image below shows some tops <-80C:

Quoting Grothar:


I saw you writing about it. You're a good boy. :)
I was laughing when I saw you post that question earlier... I mean, was there ANYbody who said this wouldn't develop??? lol

I think we've gotten pretty good bout calling these early ones in the EPac... the WCar is a different story.
I just got off somebody tell me wats going on!!!
Quoting Grothar:


I saw you writing about it. You're a good boy. :)


I can be. ;)
Quoting bigwes6844:
I just got off somebody tell me wats going on!!!


hey bro

We have Barbara. That good enough? ;)
What do you guys think of these?



Quoting BahaHurican:
I was laughing when I saw you post that question earlier... I mean, was there ANYbody who said this wouldn't develop??? lol

I think we've gotten pretty good bout calling these early ones in the EPac... the WCar is a different story.


Yes, I can think of one. :)
Flash flood warning is up for my location.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
705 PM HST TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM HST

* AT 650 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR NEAR PUNALUU. THE STREAM GAGE AT PUNALUU STREAM
WAS AT 6.75 FT AND THE STREAM GAGE AT KAHANA STREAM WAS AT 5.77
FT. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PUNALUU...LAIE...KAAAWA AND KAHUKU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1000 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2161 15806 2173 15796 2133 15769 2129 15784

$$
Quoting nigel20:

I saw this picture ( Carmichael Road) on Tribune242 twitter page earlier today
Link
I'm not sure where that is on Carmichael Rd.... hmmm... must be on the western end somewhere. I note there's not very much water there. I drove through a lot more along the more northern roads - Wulff Rd, W. Bay St - trying to get to / from work this morning.
Quoting Grothar:
What do you guys think of these?



WOW
Quoting KoritheMan:


hey bro

We have Barbara. That good enough? ;)
Finally! How much stronger is she?
ANY torniac activity?
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not sure where that is on Carmichael Rd.... hmmm... must be on the western end somewhere. I note there's not very much water there. I drove through a lot more along the more northern roads - Wulff Rd, W. Bay St - trying to get to / from work this morning.

Is it still raining at the moment?
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I can think of one. :)
LOL... I am sure I cannot think who that might be.... lol

Quoting Grothar:
What do you guys think of these?



I am thinking I'm not convinced about the TC potential in the BoC, I can guess where the energy for the sub-tropical development off the SE CONUS is coming from, and the central ATL must be a Twave we don't currently see...

IOW, nothing much.
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like its getting stronger! and its wrapping!
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... I am sure I cannot think who that might be.... lol

I am thinking I'm not convinced about the TC potential in the BoC, I can guess where the energy for the sub-tropical development off the SE CONUS is coming from, and the central ATL must be a Twave we don't currently see...

IOW, nothing much.


OK, no more hints for you :P
Quoting nigel20:

Is it still raining at the moment?
Yeah... hasn't completely stopped here since about 6 p.m. It's lightened up for the moment, but it's been cycling like that all evening. Looking at Grothar's post #725, I'd say we have at least a couple more rounds coming before the night is through.

Looks like Montego Bay area might be getting some rain right now.
Quoting bigwes6844:
It looks like its getting stronger! and its wrapping!


It sure does.

Quoting bigwes6844:
Finally! How much stronger is she?
ANY torniac activity?


40 kt pending the upcoming intermediate advisory from the NHC.

There have been several tornadoes today, including a couple of large, strong ones. Southeast Michigan in particular was hit hard. Amarillo was also under a tornado warning not too long ago, although I am unaware of any tornadic damage in the area. Very large hail, though.
Quoting bigwes6844:
It looks like its getting stronger! and its wrapping!
I want to be the first to call, Pinhole Eye!

[Okay, I'm calming down now.]
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah... hasn't completely stopped here since about 6 p.m. It's lightened up for the moment, but it's been cycling like that all evening. Looking at Grothar's post #725, I'd say we have at least a couple more rounds coming before the night is through.

Looks like Montego Bay area might be getting some rain right now.


Looks like you are going to get some heavy rain this week. It just started up with some heavy squalls here.



Quoting Civicane49:
Flash flood warning is up for my location.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
705 PM HST TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM HST

* AT 650 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR NEAR PUNALUU. THE STREAM GAGE AT PUNALUU STREAM
WAS AT 6.75 FT AND THE STREAM GAGE AT KAHANA STREAM WAS AT 5.77
FT. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PUNALUU...LAIE...KAAAWA AND KAHUKU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING
IN STREAMS...ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING REPLACES THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY.

THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1000 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2161 15806 2173 15796 2133 15769 2129 15784

$$


I didn't know you were in Hawaii.
Quoting Grothar:


Looks like you are going to get some heavy rain this week. It just started up with some heavy squalls here.



They've been forecasting another round of flooding, this time extended to much of The Bahamas, especially since they don't expect the wx to break before Friday. Some of the residents in lowlying areas got up to 10' of water in their homes last week, and I hear people on the eastern end of the island were sandbagging this afternoon.
Quoting KoritheMan:


40 kt pending the upcoming intermediate advisory from the NHC.

There have been several tornadoes today, including a couple of large, strong ones. Southeast Michigan in particular was hit hard. Amarillo was also under a tornado warning not too long ago, although I am unaware of any tornadic damage in the area. Very large hail, though.


I wouldn't expect to see much more than 35 kts. Maybe 40 in a little while.
Quoting Civicane49:
Flash flood warning is up for my location.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
705 PM HST TUE MAY 28 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY

* UNTIL 1000 PM HST

*
THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 1000 PM HST IF FLASH
FLOODING PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 2161 15806 2173 15796 2133 15769 2129 15784

$$
Looks like you guys are getting in on the tropical rainfall...
Quoting Grothar:


I didn't know you were in Hawaii.


Well now you know. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


40 kt pending the upcoming intermediate advisory from the NHC.

There have been several tornadoes today, including a couple of large, strong ones. Southeast Michigan in particular was hit hard. Amarillo was also under a tornado warning not too long ago, although I am unaware of any tornadic damage in the area. Very large hail, though.
Isee i go to work for a little while and all hell breaks loose!
anyways I'm extremely tired I'll be back inateast half an ahour rehar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah... hasn't completely stopped here since about 6 p.m. It's lightened up for the moment, but it's been cycling like that all evening. Looking at Grothar's post #725, I'd say we have at least a couple more rounds coming before the night is through.

Looks like Montego Bay area might be getting some rain right now.

Yeah, they also had some rain earlier along with Ocho Rios. It's a pity our radar is not available to the public even though it's back up...the met service of Jamaica said that it will be available to the public in July.
Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
I want to be the first to call, Pinhole Eye!

[Okay, I'm calming down now.]
I tell u one thing it looks real good when Gro showed me that map. Its really showing us that the MJO is there!
Wow. Oahu has been deluged by the great amount of rainfall today, especially on the Koolau Range.

Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, they also had some rain earlier along with Ocho Rios. It's a pity our radar is not available to the public even though it's back up...the met service of Jamaica said that it will be available to the public in July.
Link
Was just thinking about your radar... and ours... they would be great to have online in situations like this. I tried getting on the the BMO website this afternoon, and the whole site seems to be offline. That's something for me to call them about tomorrow.
Quoting Grothar:


I wouldn't expect to see much more than 35 kts. Maybe 40 in a little while.


Oh come on.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Was just thinking about your radar... and ours... they would be great to have online in situations like this. I tried getting on the the BMO website this afternoon, and the whole site seems to be offline. That's something for me to call them about tomorrow.

It has been down for somtime now...I normally post info from the BMO on my blog, but i've not done so in a while.
kori u think well get a 1 o'clock edition?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh come on.


OK, maybe 36 kts.
Shouldn't there be a new update now?
Barbara up to 50 mph.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...BARBARA STRENGTHENING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BARBARA...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
THIS EVENING. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
..BARBARA STRENGTHENING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
11:00 PM PDT Tue May 28
Location: 14.5N 95.7W
Moving: NE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Good night friends!
It's been a pretty wet day for some areas in Hawaii. The upper-level low located northeast of Hawaii has been adding some instability there with increase in showers, with some of them being very heavy like on Oahu today. However, the low is expected to move away from the islands and more stable weather will return by tomorrow and Thursday.

Quoting nigel20:
Good night friends!


Good night, Nigel.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
8:30 AM IST May 29 2013
==================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over northern Bay of Bengal near 21.0N 89.5E, or about 130 km south southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh, and 200 km southeast of Kolkata, India.

The system is likely to move northward and cross Bangladesh coast about 50 km west of Khepupara later this evening.

Quoting nigel20:
Good night friends!
Nite Nigel! im right behind ya!
000
AXNT20 KNHC 290552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
05N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N22W TO 05N40W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-10N BETWEEN 12W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 49W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF
NEAR 19N92W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED WEST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO LIFT
MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTHEAST OVER THE SE GULF...PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SW NORTH ATLC...AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY SE
OF A LINE FROM 27N82W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N89W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA KEYS
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE
RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SE
CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 33N74W TO 25N97W. E-SE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FAR NW GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
70W AND SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE LARGELY IN PART TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. WHILE NO FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N
OF 17N AND W OF 80W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS
LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 87W. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALSO EXTENDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED ALONG
11N/12N. CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA. FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED E OF
70W WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ON TRADEWIND FLOW
IS LIFTING AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERALLY
CONCENTRATED E OF 65W. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST AND
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
65W-78W DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTLY FLOW DOMINATES AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE A
REGION WHERE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PROVIDING FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND INSTABILITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT PERSISTS OVER A SINGLE
LOCALE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N65W. ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING HOWEVER...MOISTURE
INCREASES DUE TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 70W.
BRIDGING THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND A MORE DOMINATE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N56W TO 30N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
DOMINATES A LARGE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF
THE AZORES NEAR 40N33W. LASTLY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SNAKES
ACROSS THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA AND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO
ALONG 31N TO 22W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
Goodnight everybody yall be safe!
ATCF says that Barbara has winds of 50 knots and pressure of 997 mb.

EP, 02, 2013052906, , BEST, 0, 145N, 958W, 50, 997, TS,
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2013 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 14:42:53 N Lon : 95:30:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.4mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.3

Center Temp : -76.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.4 degrees
Additional Information on BOB02-2013
-------------------

Satellite based Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal north of 13.0N and from 82.0E to 94.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system.

Scatterometry data indicates the cyclonic circulation over the region and associated wind speed to be about 25-30 knots. Wind speed is relatively higher in the southern sector. Khepupara reported a mean sea level pressure of 997.8 hPa with 24 hours pressure change of 3.2 hPa at 3:00 AM UTC/8:30 AM IST.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 23.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation located to the northeast. Hence system lies close to the ridge which favors northward movement. The low level convergence along with low relative vorticity has increased during the past 24 hours. The sea surface temperature is about 30C. The sea height anomaly is about 20-25 meters. However, the vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate to high. It is low to the northeast of the system. The MJO lays over phase 1 with negligible amplitude.. it is not favorable for intensification.
Impressive:

T.C.F.W.
R.I.FLAG FLAG
02E/TS/B/CX
MARK
14.45N/95.95W
Quoting Grothar:
Where are all the people who said this would never develop???





Developing quite nicely,it appears to me.
Ineresting
Anyone home?
Is the 5am up yet?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone home?


I'm still up.

You can see the eyewall on the radar you posted.
Hurricane watch now issued.

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
0900 UTC WED MAY 29 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUERTO
ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUERTO ANGEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 95.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.7N 95.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 95.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN


NNNN
Yes, it's looking quite well.
Barbara is now at 60 mph. Forecast to peak at 70 mph, just 4 mph shy of hurricane strength.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA STILL STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 95.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...COMPRISED OF COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION.
BANDING HAS INCREASED...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT BAND WRAPPING
ALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION. MORE RECENTLY...A PARTIAL
EYEWALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY...WITH THE EYEWALL BECOMING
INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 FROM TAFB
AND 3.5 FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN
RAISED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/04. BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD DRAW THE CYCLONE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE TO THE
COAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER
CROSSING THE COAST...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF THE REMNANTS ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL SHOW ONLY LIGHT SHEAR
OVER BARBARA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS AROUND 30C.
THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...AN EARLIER SSMI/S PASS
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A HARBINGER
OF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THE LACK OF TIME
OVER WATER IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND WELL AS THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
BARBARA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FOR THIS
REASON...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.8N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
I found a good two hour documentary film on Hurricane Iniki, including the real footages of right before, during, and after the storm.

Link
Looks like her circulation will be crossing the smallest amount of land to try and reach the BOC...as the forecast track shows. Maybe the mid level circulation can make it over. Wait and see I guess.
The one showing that roof gettin peeled off?
Im gonna crash...its after 2am here on the left coast. Hold down the fort!
barbara has got her act together last night
WOW WOW WOW WOW WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!! it is bad out it like a TS in WPB!!:)
WOW look at that! in the Caribbean!!

Barbara now has 65mph maximum surface winds, so still strengthening. I guess I could see this becoming a minimum hurricane before landfall if it uses its environment to the fullest.
Good morning to all. Have the models dropped the BOC/Western Caribbean scenario as I don't see the 00z run posted?
Looks messy...but only light showers so far in Lake Worth...

Link
Blob alert. West Caribbean.
The GFS and the CMC both have a low affecting Florida in a little as 60 hours with the CMC taking it up the east coast of florida and then out to sea while the GFS has a much weaker low but never closes..the fact that the GFS has piggy back behind the CMC in seeing a possibility give the CMC some street cred..and then again both of them might drop it in the next run as thats how models do..





at the end of the CMC run-BOC
WOW!

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Link
Blob alert. West Caribbean.


WRF Model drops shear over the West Caribbean to 10-15kts by Saturday. Could allow something to develop if we can get some organized convection to initiate down there.
From the Miami NWS Disco...Just a teaser...Good read...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FROM THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT JUST UNDER TWO INCHES AND
CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OVER TWO INCHES ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO 1.8-1.9 INCHES NEAR THE LAKE. GLOBAL MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AT MID
LEVELS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS.
Good Morning
Good morning all.



Yikes! Did we say the storm was on the Pacific side???

I'm not sure we can say the MJO has a weak signal in the area right now...

It hasn't stopped raining here since about this time last night. It's just light rain now, but it's been heavy off and on all night. Winds were sustained as much as 20 mph at several points last night.

short life ahead for barbara...

I hope nogaps plays out here, as mexico and texas could use some rain...


Hurricane warnings are up...As I expected last night Barbara could reach hurricane hur intensity.
I talked about peaking at 75 mph but now I say 80 mph.

Rapid consolidation but running out of time and room
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for...
eastern Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... West Palm Beach... Riviera Beach...
Lake Worth... Delray Beach... Boynton Beach... Boca Raton...

* until 900 am EDT

* at 702 am EDT... Doppler radar has indicated that 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall has fallen from the heavy showers that continue to spread
ashore across portions of Palm Beach County this morning. An
additional 1 to 2 inches through 900 am will remain possible
... especially from Boca Raton to just south of Juno Beach. Reports
from the local area of Boynton Beach and the acreage area indicate
a few flooded streets.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-292130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
520 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
UNTIL 7 PM. SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF OVER 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY EAST WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET. OPERATORS OF
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN AMPLE MOISTURE WITH
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL GENERALLY BE FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

FLEMING


Here is the Tropical Weather Discussion at 8:05 AM EDT of the Caribbean Sea by NHC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF
66W AND SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE LARGELY IN PART TO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. WHILE NO FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW
OF A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N83W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALSO EXTENDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED
ALONG 10N. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 12N BETWEEN 71W-78W.
FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED E OF 66W WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
AREAS EAST TO 50W. MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD ON TRADEWIND FLOW
IS LIFTING AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY
TRADES PERSIST AND REMAIN STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-78W DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


Precip so far today!!!!!:)4.48 inch!:) and the rain is coming down!:)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Precip so far today!!!!!:)4.48 inch!:) and the rain is coming down!:)


Lucky you! I only got .33 in yesterday
Very serious flooding likely from Melbourne down to Miami today. Some areas could see 12" plus of rain today.

Quoting islander101010:
barbara has got her act together last night


All of this talk by the WPC Folks saying the GGEM was out to lunch with showing close to 20" rainfall amounts across parts of FL well looky here it's the only model to accurately show this set up across FL right now.

Quoting AussieStorm:




Looks suprisingly good this AM Aussie
Blob Alert!!!

Quoting WDEmobmet:


Looks suprisingly good this AM Aussie


Does anyone think Barbra make it to minimal hurricane status?
Might be one of those illusions, but it looks as if Barbara is bouncing off the coast

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Blob Alert!!!




Looks like Barbara is aiding in possibly spinning up a system in the NW Caribbean.

824. VR46L
Good Morning Folks


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Very serious flooding likely from Melbourne down to Miami today. Some areas could see 12" plus of rain today.



and look what is en route...
Image from RAMMB

Loop embedded



I wouldnt think so, doesnt appear to have enough time left, however I also never thought it would obtain its current level of itensity. I was also curious to see how the dry air over mexico would treat Barb but looking at water vapor, it appears she has put up a fairly decent shield in front of her, either that or the MJO is helping out
Does anyone think Barbara could make it into the BOC intact?



It's going to be a close call.
Blob Alert!!!
Did anyone see this??

000
WTPZ62 KNHC 291025
TCUEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
325 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013


...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO...


AT 325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA.


A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST
BARBARA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.


SUMMARY OF 0325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...15.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH/LANDSEA
NWS Miami ‏@NWSMiami
#ParkVistaHigh has been closed due to flooding this morning in #PalmBeach County.
What is this 20 questions? :)


Seriously though, does anyone have a link for historical satellite pics, i wanted to compare current moisutre levels to about a week ago. Looking for comparison to see the effects of an MJO
Question: If Barbara makes it into the BOC intact and regenerates into a TS/HU will the NHC skip "B" (Barry) or still use Barry?
My new Forecast for Tropical Storm BARBARA
Quoting AussieStorm:
Does anyone think Barbara could make it into the BOC intact?



It's going to be a close call.


Good Morning Aussie..
I'll go with it emerging into BOC but gets sheared to death..
Quoting AussieStorm:
Question: If Barbara makes it into the BOC intact and regenerates into a TS/HU will the NHC skip "B" (Barry) or still use Barry?


Taz has touched on this about 100X times since TD 2 was declared, surprised you missed it
by Friday it'll be a lovely 95 around these parts with very dangerous humidity levels...2012 vibes already..
Quoting AussieStorm:
Question: If Barbara makes it into the BOC intact and regenerates into a TS/HU will the NHC skip "B" (Barry) or still use Barry?


Hi Aussie great post as usual and to answer your question if Barbara remains intact as it gets into the Gulf then it will retain Barbara.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hi Aussie great post as usual and to answer your question if Barbara remains intact as it gets into the Gulf then it will retain Barbara.


But will there also be a Barry in the ATL or will it be skipped due to Barbara?
Ahh i see what your asking now AUssie, good question... So if a storm maintains a name crossing basins do we skip that letter in our own list of names, or do we just have two "B" storm names??? Hmmmm
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Hi Aussie great post as usual and to answer your question if Barbara remains intact as it gets into the Gulf then it will retain Barbara.


YEea but would we then skip over Barry, otherwise we would have two B storm names
Flooding at Park Vista High School in Boynton Beach this morning. The school has been closed for the day.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Taz has touched on this about 100X times since TD 2 was declared, surprised you missed it

Sorry I haven't been well these past few days so I've only been dropping in from time to time. I didn't read back. Sorry
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Ahh i see what your asking now AUssie, good question... So if a storm maintains a name crossing basins do we skip that letter in our own list of names, or do we just have two "B" storm names??? Hmmmm


Exactly. Will we have 2 "B" named systems?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry I haven't been well these past few days so I've only been dropping in from time to time. I didn't read back. Sorry


Hope you get to feeling better Auz, no apologies neccessary was really just picking on Taz
845. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Blob Alert!!!


yeap morning ill have to second that even tho gro hasnt made it oficial yet ! BLOB ALERT
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Flooding at Park Vista High School in Boynton Beach this morning. The school has been closed for the day.


Let me guess, the driver of that car didn't think the water was deep enough to cause their car to drown? Silly silly Billy. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN YA GOOSE should be tattooed on his/her forehead.
Good Morning All..
A humid morning here..
77 degrees with 83%rh and dew at 72..
Scattered clouds with winds 12ENE..
I performed weekly maintenance yesterday on my inground pool and it liked to have wiped me out..
I am so not looking forward to this summers heat and humidity..
Pressure washing is next.. :(

Beach looking ok..
Surfs up a bit as usual when winds are from the East/South..
Yellow flags flying this am..



I know its been posted already but...

000
WTPZ62 KNHC 291025
TCUEP2

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
325 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO...

AT 325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST
BARBARA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL
.

SUMMARY OF 0325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...15.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH/LANDSEA

Didnt see that coming
849. beell
It's possible that the remains of Barbara, in combination with the tail of a front could provide the seed for a disturbance in the western gulf beginning next Monday. Provided there is at least something of a circulation left after Barbara crosses Mexico.

Wind shear over the BOC may be less than 30 knots. A little higher farther north.

All this timed with a trough over the southeast US to tap/pull the monsoonal moisture northeast. A longshot, maybe.



05/29 06Z GFS 850 mb Vorticity-Valid @ 120 hrs

GFS with an initial weak portrayal of an inverted trough over the western gulf.


05/29 03Z WPC Forecast Surface-Valid 12Z Monday

click any image to open in new window
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Flooding at Park Vista High School in Boynton Beach this morning. The school has been closed for the day.

Hope that's not your car left in park with the lights on, South Florida Weatherman!
Morning PCola,

Found myself watching drizzles in the yard yesterday afternoon for the first time in what seemed like months
Lots of talk about blobs this morning. Did our official appointed bloblogist clock in yet?
...BARBARA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
5:00 AM PDT Wed May 29
Location: 15.2°N 95.0°W
Moving: NE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Not me lol
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Hope that's not your car left in park with the lights on, South Florida Weatherman!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Blob Alert!!!



Hey, only the resident certified blobologist can call it a blob, lol.
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Morning PCola,

Found myself watching drizzles in the yard yesterday afternoon for the first time in what seemed like months


Hey WDE..
Absolutely, positively, nothing here..
Having to keep the sprinklers on already..
Was reading Treasure Island yesterday and I felt as if I were there amongst the tropics of Spyglass Hill and Skeleton Island..
I bet I lost ..oh..3 lbs yesterday..
Pure sweat..
The little hit and miss showers make for little relief.. :)
BARBARA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
5:00 AM PDT Wed May 29
Location: 15.2°N 95.0°W
Moving: NE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph wow 65 mph
Just did a quick blog update on TS Barbara.

Damage surveys start today to determine the EF rating of the tornadoes in Michigan yesterday.
Not to bad now but big rain coming!


Miami, FL (KAMX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

lots of rain out there
Quoting pcola57:


Hey WDE..
Absolutely, positively, nothing here..
Having to keep the sprinklers on already..
Was reading Treasure Island yesterday and I felt as if I were there amongst the tropics of Spyglass Hill and Skeleton Island..
I bet I lost ..oh..3 lbs yesterday..
Pure sweat..
The little hit and miss showers make for little relief.. :)


HaHa, hopefully we can get some relief soonest
well looks like Barbara is E of ever forecast plot so far maybe they need to out TS warning and Hurricanes Warning further S and E
If anything endures from Barbara..
It will land in here..

Seems to be hovering around 55 knots.

Video from CBS 12's Eric Roby on the scene at Park Vista High School.
Link
Barbie is a small system.
872. MahFL
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Barbara is aiding in possibly spinning up a system in the NW Caribbean">


30 kts of screaming shear would say NO.
15% tornado risk today per latest convective outlook. I got to go, by everyone.
Good Morning. Interesting looking blob has emerged in the NW Caribbean just off the coast of Honduras. Looks impressive but is has a big flow of wind sheer moving across it from the West in the 30 knot range:

Link

The rainbow and WV loops show a big convective complex but we should get a better view of the effect of sheer in a few hours on the visible loops as the sun comes up over there in earnest.........That should tell the story.
Today is last chance to see Barbara make a run at Hurricaine status..
Intensity chart is between now and approx. 12hrs..
Thats all..





no real relief in sight

4.68 in --- May
26.48 in -- For year total

Going to be a long hot and dry summer if things dont change fast
Quoting pcola57:
Today is last chance to see Barbara make a run at Hurricaine status..
Intensity chart is between now and approx. 12hrs..
Thats all..




Doesn't look like it will happen.
northeast 5%
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Doesn't look like it will happen.


The NHC isn't so sure:

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

---
RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED. BASED UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
----

Any chance if this thing gets into the Gulf it will re-form into a Tropical Storm, presuming it dies off to a Depression by the time it reaches there?
Also, no vorticity at the surface:

Link

And a ULL Tutt cell draping down from the tip of Cuba that is probably enhancing the baroclinic convective burst:

Link

It will probably diminish over the next several hours; I would be surprised if it were still in this shape by this evening.
Kudos to the GGEM as this is the only model that accurately portrayed this set up across FL. WPC may want to re-asses their precip maps for FL.


883. MahFL
Sadly no one on the SW MX beaches will get the warnings and people will drown.
Quoting stribe37:


The NHC isn't so sure:

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

---
RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED. BASED UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
----

Any chance if this thing gets into the Gulf it will re-form into a Tropical Storm, presuming it dies off to a Depression by the time it reaches there?


Theres a chance it's remnants will become Andrea.
Good morning everybody! Today is going to be a very active day for significant weather.

Barbara is likely going to become a hurricane today before making landfall in Mexico.


Large damaging hail seems very likely again today in the central plains as well as a tornado threat. Some tornadoes could be strong and long tracked.

Really high CAPE for so early in the morning across C FL.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also, no vorticity at the surface:

Link

And a ULL Tutt cell draping down from the tip of Cuba that is probably enhancing the baroclinic convective burst:

Link

It will probably diminish over the next several hours; I would be surprised if it were still in this shape by this evening.


Not to mention Shear..

Quoting stribe37:


The NHC isn't so sure:

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

---
RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED. BASED UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
----

Any chance if this thing gets into the Gulf it will re-form into a Tropical Storm, presuming it dies off to a Depression by the time it reaches there?

That sounds like they'll just issue Hurricane Warnings to be safe. I don't see 75 MPH. 65 MPH is probably all she will attain. TCHP's drop off dramatically as she approaches the swallower shelf.
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BARBARA...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
NNNN

Quoting SouthernIllinois:

That sounds like they'll just issue Hurricane Warnings to be safe. I don't see 75 MPH. 65 MPH is probably all she will attain. TCHP's drop off dramatically as she approaches the swallower shelf.


She is at 65mph right now, and hurricane warnings are in effect now.


Hurricane winds do exist in the center of barbara now.

The fact that Barbara is stronger now means it has an even lower chance of surviving the crossing into the Bay of Campeche. Tropical cyclones in general don't have a good friendship with mountainous terrain, but this is especially true for hurricanes and major hurricanes.
Jet Stream Analysis..







SST..GFS





WTPZ32 KNHC 291159
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 95.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO
ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA
.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.


A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED 500 AM PDT
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A NORTHEAST
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BARBARA WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN OAXACA AND WESTERN CHIAPAS MEXICO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 3 TO 5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Re: #862 "reflectivity" image -- Just look at that solid mass of clouds evaporating as they get about halfway across the peninsula. Heartbreaking for us in SW Florida. It's been the story at least here in Southeast Cape Coral for days - a "shower curtain" in place, killing the rain and thunderstorms as they approach. Heaven help us that we get some rain today at last....
It appears that the high pressure ridge that parks over east Texas evey summer seems to be extending into the GoM a bit further than usual. Anyone see this breaking down soon? It helps steer these storms away from us.
New model from NHC shows hurricane strength before landfall.

Really surprised how quickly Barbara has been able to spin up and near hurricane strength this am.....I still think it might have something to do with that "curve" coastal pocket she is in that is helping the circulation consolidate....It has been getting better and better the closer she has moved towards the coast starting yesterday.
11:00 AM WED MAY 29 Hurricane (Category 1) 15.7N 94.9W N 1 (1) -- 75 (65)
4 5:00 AM WED MAY 29 Tropical Storm Barbara 15.2N 95W NE 8 (7) 29.38 (995) 65 (56)
3 2:00 AM WED MAY 29 Tropical Storm Barbara 14.8N 95.6W NE 5 (4) 29.44 (997) 60 (52)
2A 11:00 PM TUE MAY 28 Tropical Storm Barbara 14.5N 95.7W NE 3 (3) 29.53 (1000) 50 (43)
2 8:00 PM TUE MAY 28 Tropical Storm Barbara 14.5N 95.7W NNE 3 (3) 29.56 (1001) 45 (39)
1A 5:00 PM TUE MAY 28 Tropical Storm Barbara 14.2N 96W STNRY 0 (0) 29.65 (1004) 40 (35)
1 2:00 PM TUE MAY 28 Tropical Depression Two-e 14.2N 96.5W N 2 (2) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)

This shows Hurricane strength within 2 hours.
Ok this is my forecast cone for Barbara

901. VR46L
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS
BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED.

BASED
UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE
STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BASED ON RECENT CENTER FIXES...THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
TRACK.


THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE 1200 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1200Z 15.2N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 94.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok this is my forecast cone for Barbara



Lol you missed the "I" in official
This shows that barbara could get out of mexico with up to 30mph winds left...

Quoting VR46L:
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there

905. VR46L
Quoting Torito:
This shows that barbara could get out of mexico with up to 30mph winds left...

Quoting Torito:
This shows that barbara could get out of mexico with up to 30mph winds left...



And there is a nice drop of rocket fuel awaiting...

Quoting VR46L:


And there is a nice drop of rocket fuel awaiting...



I can easily see this thing becoming an invest in the gulf of mexico once it goes across, as long as it stays off of the high rocky areas.
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Lol you missed the "I" in official

oh what ever ya'll get the point!!!!!
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Hope you get to feeling better Auz, no apologies neccessary was really just picking on Taz
Why?

Barbara's crossing into the ATL basin would not impact our list of names. We would have two B storms. It happened quite recently with A names... Alvin?

Quoting AussieStorm:


Let me guess, the driver of that car didn't think the water was deep enough to cause their car to drown? Silly silly Billy. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN YA GOOSE should be tattooed on his/her forehead.
Probably was parked there before the flood waters arrived.
Link

Radar out of belize.....is there a little turning there or is it just my eyes..."sips more coffee"
New invest? Doesnt look like anything to me... 94W:

Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Link

Radar out of belize.....is there a little turning there or is it just my eyes..."sips more coffee"




Not really to me...
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Link

Radar out of belize.....is there a little turning there or is it just my eyes..."sips more coffee"


I see it too...(sip)
Quoting Torito:




Not really to me...


yeah I think more coffee is in order lol....was the last two frames of the image that caught my attention
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


yeah I think more coffee is in order lol....was the last two frames of the image that caught my attention


I kinda see slight rotation, but it may just be the storm dissipating.
Toronto Pearson Int'l AirportDate: 9:00 AM EDT Wednesday 29 May 2013
Condition:Mainly Sunny
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:70.2°F
Dewpoint:67.5°F
Humidity:91%
Wind:WSW 7 mph
Humidex: 83

after a wet and stormy night now we get the heat and more rain later


Average Model Intensity Error for TS Barbara on May 29th at 6:00Z; don't think she is gonna make it to hurricane status
T.C.F.W.
R.I.FLAG FLAG
02E/TS/B/CX
MARK
14.45N/95.95W
Quoting Torito:


I kinda see slight rotation, but it may just be the storm dissipating.


could be.....we'll watch it throughout the day to see what it does....wish the radar here in cayman was back up online...its operational but they took the images down off the website for some reason. Maybe building a new website for it? I have not heard. Wonderkid may have more info on it.
Quoting MahFL:


30 kts of screaming shear would say NO.
I hear shear is supposed to decrease. But we shall see.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also, no vorticity at the surface:

Link

And a ULL Tutt cell draping down from the tip of Cuba that is probably enhancing the baroclinic convective burst:

Link

It will probably diminish over the next several hours; I would be surprised if it were still in this shape by this evening.
The storms connected with that TUTT have been waxing and waning depending on the SSTs they are over, and to a certain extent Dmax / Dmin... We're going to get another strong cell in the Central Bahamas in couple of hours, and I'm assuming the blob we're looking at will bring rain to western JA and the Caymans.

Quoting VR46L:
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there


if she takes it so far it practically missed every forecast plot finding its self just E of the plots so it on the E side of cone plus NHC has it just about going due N in their cone if it was to do that it would be heading N now but its going NE-NNE so back to what you said I say No it look to be headin for the mountains
924. SLU
Quoting VR46L:
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there



Barbara's slow movement will count against it. If she was moving faster, chances are she would remain intact across the terrain.
Barbara RGB
Animated GIF

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
14:30 PM IST May 29 2013
=================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, The depression over northern Bay of Bengal lays centered near 21.5N 89.0E, or about 130 km south southeast of Kalkata, India, 80 km south southeast of Canning, Bangladesh, and 140 km southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

The system is likely o move north northwestward and cross West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near Canning within a few hours.

Satellite based Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal, adjoining Bangladesh, and Gangetic, West Bengal, north of 14.0N and west of 92.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 994 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system.
XX/XX/XXL
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Link

Radar out of belize.....is there a little turning there or is it just my eyes..."sips more coffee"


yeah I kinda see it to

oh yeah I talk to boss day before yesterday and he said that he believes we won't have it up till after June 1st and yeah they are revamping the website so whole new website with radar link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yeah I kinda see it to

oh yeah I talk to boss day before yesterday and he said that he believes we won't have it up till after June 1st and yeah they are revamping the website so whole new website with radar link


cool be nice to be able to have radar in the area it's been a long time coming
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Theres a chance it's remnants will become Andrea.
If it never falls below TD status, I think it stays Barbara. But there is a lot of doubt about conditions in the BoC being sufficiently favorable for regeneration at all.

Quoting VR46L:
Just looking at the Radar imagery does anyone see Barb taking the easy route for her ... where there is less higher terrain and is the shortest journey to the Gulf . Its really not that big a journey .. Just putting it out there

NHC obviously sees that as possibility...

Quoting SLU:


Barbara's slow movement will count against it. If she was moving faster, chances are she would remain intact across the terrain.

yep very true

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hmm shear is Decreasing in the W Gulf of Hondura and increasing in the BOC
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB02-2013
14:30 PM IST May 29 2013
=================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, The depression over northern Bay of Bengal lays centered near 21.5N 89.0E, or about 130 km south southeast of Kalkata, India, 80 km south southeast of Canning, Bangladesh, and 140 km southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

The system is likely o move north northwestward and cross West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near Canning within a few hours.

Satellite based Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal, adjoining Bangladesh, and Gangetic, West Bengal, north of 14.0N and west of 92.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 994 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system.
Is it me, or has this spring been a bit above average for BoB storms?
2013MAY29 131500

3.2 999.4/
1.8 / 49.0
3.2 3.4 3.9 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF

-66.66 -67.11

UNIFRM N/A 15.30 94.98 FCST

Question, What effect, if any, will Barbara have on the Central and Southeast United States? Regardless if she survives the mountains or not I would think her moisture will. Then you have a front that is parallel to the mean flow just sitting across the Midwest until Saturday. I would think it would create quite the soggy week for some.
Wow I leave, i come back...and we almost have hurricane barbara...
Beautiful structure. This TRMM pass also shows the low-level ring feature:



Also, the 85 PCT shows a closed eyewall:

The fact the Barbie strengthened at the last minute decreases her chance of surviving her trek over the mainland. Also her slow movement will work against any chance she makes it alive into the BOC. If Barbie somehow avoids the most rugged and highest terrain, she might have a chance. Right now, it's a possibility. My amateur blogger guess -- she doesn't not make it. And even if she does, she'll hit a wall of shear. She won't last long.

FWIW, she looks great now. Incredible structure.

barbara seems to leaving alot of energy behind her which is troublesome in that if our western carib system gets going the leftover energy might be pulled into the atlantic system out of the warm pacific. this could mean flooding rains for nicaraqua and el salvador &guatamala.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Question, What effect, if any, will Barbara have on the Central and Southeast United States? Regardless if she survives the mountains or not I would think her moisture will. Then you have a front that is parallel to the mean flow just sitting across the Midwest until Saturday.


I doubt much if any...

Models certainly dont show it.

GFS doestn even let this last more than 6-12 hrs inland and its remnants simply stall
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Beautiful structure. This TRMM pass also shows the low-level ring feature:



Also, the 85 PCT shows a closed eyewall:



for me it's very close to Hurricane strength!!!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Salina Cruz to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico is ~301 km or 187 miles. 187/8 mph = ~23-24 hours to cross land and be at the northern shore ==> BOC or GOM.
I believe we may get a Cane designation next advisory.



945. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I doubt much if any...

Models certainly dont show it.

GFS doestn even let this last more than 6-12 hrs inland and its remnants simply stall


I tend to take a rather cynical view of the Models for the last 3 weeks they have in some way or form spelled doom for Florida or the East coast .. Now all of a sudden they are dropping everything ... I would keep an eye on Barbie . you never know .

Micheal last year was a major hurricane and was never modeled at all .
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 52m

Barbara over 30°C+ SST in East Pac, but Gulf is ready for tropical storm activity, 27°C+ plenty for hurricanes
Wrong blog darn