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TD 27 still hanging on

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:37 PM GMT on November 15, 2005

Tropical Depression 27 continues to struggle against high wind shear generated by strong upper-level westerly winds. The storm has a small area of deep convection over the center, and a very small and weak circulation center. The circulation was too small to be resolved by the QuikSCAT satellite in its pass at 5:30 am this morning. Wind shear has held steady at about the same level we've seen the past two days, 20 knots. This shear is still high enough that there remains a 10% chance that the depression will dissipate within the next 24 hours. If the storm can survive until then, the shear will decrease enough to allow TD 27 to strengthen into a tropical storm and remain in a threat to the Caribbean for the rest of the week.

The eventual intensity of TD 27 is still highly uncertain. If TD 27 can position itself under an upper-level anticyclone that is expected to develop by Wednesday over the central Carribean, the storm has a chance to attain hurricane status. Ocean temperatures are 28-29C--plenty warm enough to allow a hurricane to form. However, the GFDL model is no longer predicting that this will be a major hurricane--it forecasts that TD 27 will strike Honduras as a Category 1 hurricane late in the week. This may be a result of the fact that the models are now forecasting increasing wind shear over the western Caribbean starting Friday. The other major intensity model, the SHIPS model, forecasts a strong tropical storm by the end of the week.

The computer models continue to agree that TD 27 will track westward over the Caribbean for the next five days, under the steering of a strong ridge of high pressure. By the end of the week, the storm should slow down, as a trough of low pressure to the north breaks down the ridge. This trough may be strong enough to force TD 27 northwards, where it would get caught in the westerly winds prevailing over Cuba and get recurved out to sea. This solution is favored by the Canadian model. The other models keep the ridge strong enough so that TD 27 remains over the ocean, or makes landfall in Honduras late in the week. I still believe Honduras is most at risk from this storm, followed by Nicaragua, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into TD 27 this afternoon at about 2 pm EST.

This will be my final blog for nine days, I am headed to Puerto Rico for vacation. I hope not to be on the front lines for the next tropical system, but it certainly is possible! This hurricane season could well extend into early December, as happened in the 2003 hurricane season. I will be back to blogging on November 25 to talk about what remains of hurricane season, summarize this amazing Hurricane Season of 2005, and speculate on next year's hurricane season. Be sure to catch the PBS NOVA and Frontline shows on Hurricane Katrina, airing Tuesday Nov. 22 and 8 pm and 9 pm, I hope to talk about that show, as well.

While I am gone, meteorologists John Celenza and Shaun Tanner of the Weather Underground will be updating my blog on all the latest about TD 27.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hate - Don't you just love finding clothes you forgot you had! It's like X-mas all over again!! lol
going really good nice and sunny here in cali was in the mid 40s this morning but going to get in the upper 60s today
My local weather guy says by Sunday
it should be cooler. Just in time for
me to go to Homestead.
my opinion flordians dont really know what cold really is lol coats and jackets at 65 lol
Boldman - You are lucky!
see what i mean lol
21 - Only if they still fit!
What is the latest on the Carib Disturbance? anyone have some input. Anything expected and where it shall travel?
Hey Boldman - Our area will be 32 degrees Fri night! That'c cold to me!!lol
are local weather guy is saying were above average we had a north wind last 2 days just enough to bring sacramento to 76 and other places to like 80 san francisco was like 75
Progressive, I'm not quite sure, the early model tracks are on www.skeetobiteweather.com..
21, if I were you I would stay home
under the covers friday night! Too
cold for me!
32 wow now that is cold for flordia you might think its 0 there lol
its 58 here now
the depression right pulse
Thanks Pensacola21
its possible if the shear relaxes it could be a storm gamm i mean i dont think a hurricane though i would have to say somewere in hounduras
Palm - Yeah, I'll probably do that, lol..

Bold - You are right, we are weenies!! lol
Yeah I seen that 27 will be absorbed, and the track over Honduras. I am leaving for a week and will be away from the computer. Live in South FL. didn't want to get caught with my pants, I mean panels down lol. Looks to be avoiding FL.
And proud of it!lol
LOL Progressive!
lets hope not pulse lol
Dee must be busy today...
acually cali people are weenies to humidity heat index lol
Ahhhh Boldman, see we're not the only weiners around here!
and with that i have to go talk to yall laters
Bye Bold
heck yeah thought you were the lonely weiner lol
Yeah 21, No dee or subtropic today.
hmmmm.. No mean people though!
Thank goodness.
No meanies.
Palm - Did you say you are an accountant for that meat co?
Brokerage company.
Meat all over the world.
Fun Fun
lol.. How many years did you go to school?
Slow this week though
we should be in the Turkey business
I only went to college for 2 years.
I used to be a data processor for Palm
Beach County School board. I like this
much better.
How about you?
I am not a certified accountant
I just pretend that I am. lol
Oh yeah
I use Quickbooks and love it..
I'm just scared of college accounting, heard it is hard...
You should learn to weld!lol
Wish I could help, but all my classes
were more computer science.
Yeah, for real! My man is a pipefitter
Oh, I'm so glad we retired early. Was starting to get to me. Sold almost everything and only have money left. but that's what we worked 16hr days for.
Wish I could retire!
Really wish I could retire!
LOL ;-)
Yeah, I wish I could too, only if I won the lottery!!!!!
21, I was going to say something
but, I will behave myself! That
is too funny!
LOL... Well that's was he does for a living... Ironic..

oh I bet!
Have fun, talk to you soon!
Palm - It's true. Women talk trash with eachother all the time.
Hello.....nice conversation going on in here........
Weatherboy - Are you in Orlando?
I'm up Wekiva Springs Road, by the park.
gobble gobble um.... gobble.
Gobble gobble to you too Subtropic. Those were the good 'ol days. Eat until you get sick, take a nap and then eat again. Now days we have turkey subs, secret relish and sweetpotato pie. That's it.
Yeah. I miss those days.
The animation of the last threeish hours almost looks like convection from TD 27 is getting sucked into the new low - what's causing that kind of chain reaction?
wind.... I agree, Broward is way over-crowded, terrible drivers, very expensive and not the best place in the world to raise kids, but our jobs are here and so are we.
Is that why you continue to live in an area you seem to despise so much?
TD 27 is just lower on the food chain now.
What I don't miss, subtropic is all the little brats running around throwing fruit salad at eachother.
hatehurricanes. I dunno. I kinda like throwing fruit salad ;-)
I liked pitching pie.
lol... Yes, even better!
hye sub
But with the pie, you have to have somewhat good aim. With the fruit salad, you can take out several targets at once with relative ease.
look its subtropic hey man whats rocking lol
Wazzup Jeff. No school today?
Hey all...
yes school i did some this morning and now ill do some more after lunch
Hey 21.
hey 21 time for weiner 101 allready what is it this time a windchill at 50 lol
Hey Sub, how's it going?
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) Here's an out-of-this-world reason you can't be denied unemployment benefits in Des Moines: seeing ghosts on the job.

The issue ended up in court when security guard Wade Gallegos alerted his supervisor at Neighborhood Patrol in September that ghosts were haunting a neighborhood he was guarding.

The supervisor arrived at the scene and Gallegos showed him where the ghosts were still apparently standing. The supervisor claimed he saw nothing and fired Gallegos five hours later.

The company found no signs of drug use or alcohol.

When Gallegos applied for unemployment benefits, Neighborhood Patrol refused, arguing that he was guilty of misconduct.

This month, Judge G. Ken Renegar disagreed. While he acknowledged that "such beliefs do render the claimant unfit to act as a security guard," Renegar ruled that seeing ghosts is not the type of misconduct that can disqualify Gallegos from receiving benefits
FERGUS FALLS, Minn. (AP) A former employee who attempted to burglarize a restaurant apparently didn't know any good hiding places.

Police responded to a burglary alarm at the Speedway Restaurant early Monday and surrounded the building.

When officers entered, they discovered that the burglar had tried to hide in the ceiling. He fell through and tried hiding in an oven instead.

"The guy was only half-baked when he was picked up," joked Police Capt. Hugo McPhee.

The 43-year-old man was taken to the Otter Tail County Jail.

RIP TD #27

Looks likes TD 27 has gone to tropical heaven, which most likely looks a lot like the Caribbean during the summer.

I wonder if there are any others developing in that giant swirl of clouds...
Rp - Good riddance!!!
Hi again all. And now I am leaving again.
Talk to you tomorrow. 21, have fun at
bye palmbeacher.
Bye Palm!
see ya palm
rip now dont give up on it just yet if the shear lessens then we could have a ts on our hands
Hey everyone, in and out...just reading 21's post regarding college accounting - it isn't too hard but you will get carpel tunnel writing everything out manually, very time consuming, but not that hard :-)

I had a funeral earlier and a baby shower in a couple of hours...."One goes out....one comes in!" (quote Jack Johnson)

Its been a surreal day.

Everyone take care and Ill be in tomorrow when I have more time!

Have a great night!
Hi stormy. Bye stormy.
new post up...