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TD 27 still battling strong shear

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:36 PM GMT on November 14, 2005

Wind shear from strong upper-level westerly winds has disrupted Tropical Depression 27 this afternoon. The depression was probably near tropical storm strength for a few hours late this morning, but since that time, the center of circulation has become more exposed, and the deep convection has retreated to the southeast side. The spiral band that had formed to the south is gone now. Wind shear is continuing to drop, and is now in the 15 - 20 knot range. This shear is still high enough that there remains a 10% the depression will dissipate within the next 48 hours. If the storm can survive until past then, the shear will decrease enough to allow TD 27 to strenghen into a tropical storm and remain in a threat to the Caribbean for the rest of the week.

The eventual intensity of TD 27 is highly uncertain, and will be highly dependent on the track of the storm. If TD 27 can position itself under an upper-level anticyclone that is expected to develop by Wednesday over the central Carribean, the storm has a chance to attain hurricane status. Ocean temperatures are 28-29C--plenty warm enough to allow a hurricane to form. The GFDL model still predicts TD 27 will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane by the end of the week. However, the other major intensity model, the SHIPS model, forecasts a strong tropical storm by the end of the week. There is no way to tell now which model is more likely to be correct.

The computer models agree on the basic idea that TD 27 will track westward over the Caribbean for the next five days, under the steering of a strong ridge of high pressure. By the end of the week, the models begin to diverge.
The GFDL and NOGAPS depict a stronger system and show a threat to Jamaica, while the GFS and UKMET have a weaker system farther south that is more of a threat to Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models show the storm moving far enough north to get caught in the westerly winds prevailing over Cuba and getting recurved out to sea. It appears that the ridge of high pressure steering TD 27 westwards will continue to hold in place for at least seven days, making Honduras the most at-risk area for a strike. Remember, a lot can change with forecasts for the large-scale weather patterns five to seven days from now, and the future track that far in advance will depend heaviy on how intense the storm becomes.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into TD 27 Tuesday afternoon.

I'll be back with an update in the morning, unless TD 27 gets a name tonight. Incidently, TD 27 is only the 3rd tropical depression in history to form in November in the eastern Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doctor Masters
Here in the middle of the country, we got high wind advisories up...howling in with the first real cold air of the season. and i gotta be outside in all this tomorrow i think.

"Sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph are likely
from mid morning through late in the afternoon."
RW - That sucks
add in temps in the 30s and now suddenly all the people thinking of fleeing florida pause for a minute...lol.

gotta run hope there is no gamma by the time i make it back to the blogs...
Anyway, I am about to get out of here!! See ya tomorrow..
LOL, see ya RW..
The cloud pattern does look sheared, unfortunately for Gamma. Hopefully it'll move west fast and escape the shear. I also hope that there will be another strong burst of shear before the projectable landfall in Central America, to weaken it before it hits THAT hurricane-ravaged area.

Jason
Thanks for the update Dr. M! Let's hope that since it looks unlikely to leave the Carib that your 10% chance that it dissipates increases and it runs out of steam...
hmmz i dont like that gamma it too close for me :P

hope it get dead sheared
Die Td 27....die.....die.....you are not wanted or needed. Just what is going on with the weather anyway? Are there no seasons that correspond to the calendar? Tornayduhs in November for crying out loud! Possible canes too....I mean did we piss off somebody in the weather department?
11. dcw
"There is no way to tell now which model is more likely to be correct."

I'm inclined to go with this season's trends and learn towards the GFDL.
I agree DCW.......check this out......from the NWS at Key West


KEYW 141914
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
215 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
OVER LAND ARE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
EAST NEAR 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONLY ABOUT
EIGHT DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO GENTLE EAST
SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO ABOUT 10 PERCENT
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT ONLY WARRANTS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIODS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27 IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WEST OF ST. LUCIA. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 27 COULD STRENGTHEN INTO TROPICAL STORM GAMMA TONIGHT. IT
IS QUITE LIKELY THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
REACH THE KEYS' LONGITUDE THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT NO
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PICK THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE UP AND MOVE IT TO THE NORTH...INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST

FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE BASED UPON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&
"COULD STRENGTHEN INTO TROPICAL STORM GAMMA TONIGHT"

That is not realistic. I'll say it again...patience; wait until Tues evng / Wed morning. Even if tonight the convection happens to get mostly wrapped around, that is not going to last under that much shear.

Stepping back and looking at the WATL / Carib vis sat view, it appears that TD27 has enough structure to survive the shear the next 36 hours, even if the LLC has always been looking a little on the sparse side. I mean, because of what you can't see as well as what you can see.
Anyone know of the 3 TD's Dr. M mentioned that have formed in the eastern Caribbean in Nov.? Did they become TS's, hurricanes, or just dissipate, tracks, landfall, etc.?
It's good that T.D 27 haven't gain Tropical Storm strength.
Go away!!!
To digress from hurricanes once again, this is a piece of the Area Forecast Discussion from my NWS office hear in Chicago:

"WARM GULF MSTR WILL MAKE THINGS RATHER PLEASANT FOR EASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA OUTSIDE OF POURING RAIN AND DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES."

At least they have a sense of humor. :)

I can do you one better torn. The evening forecaster for the local TV station in Pensacola, last night called this depression #24 (not once but 3 times)!!! Can you imagine?!
well then if no one is going to tell me what the movie cat 7 is about then i will e mail Jeff Masters then he will tell me may he can rec it for me and send it if no on her going to tell me what it is about

i would like to no is the movie cat 7 about a hurricane if so where is it this time around in the movie and how big is it what kind of winds dos the hurricane have where do it make land fall what kind of Name dos it have and so on and so on

is the movie cat 7 about a hurricane makeing land fall in ca?

is it about a snow storm or what tell me any one or i e mail Jeff Masters and he will tell me

can i buy it some where or is it this on tv for right now i want to see that movie so any rec it or i buy it so one way or a lol i am going to see that movie so i would like to no what it is about

thank you david LOL








888888888...

this movie is apparently being shown on TV currently (in installments?) so i doubt that it is available to rent or buy...

it's just a stupid catastrophe movie with ridiculous things that could never happen and very faulty science...

why do you care so much?

and just to satisfy my curiosity, what country are you in?
20. dcw
888889gg! Relax about Cat 7, it sucked. You cannot buy it, and probably never will be able to. It was about a totally unrealistic superstorm and how us evil evil evil anti-enviornment republics are gonna kill us all.
Some people, like me, dont really care for the acting or even the realism in a movie like that. I laughed at people who said how bad 'Day after tomorow' was because they said the love scene was corny. A movie like that would be too depressing if all they showed was the actual damage a CAT 7 hurricane would do. I like those movies, and 888889 too, because of the fact that a cat 7 hurricane could never happen, so its fun to watch and imagine what it would actually be like. Who cares about the science and what not, its still fun to watch something as amazing as that on TV. my 2 cents
22. dcw
I'm usually with you, Trouper, but the rest of it was awful too.
hi all, so we have a new possible storm out there...

wow what a season, I sure will be glad when it is really over...
did any of you watch the special on TWC last night and if you did what did you think of it???
any of you have an idea as to how bad it could be on the central pacific coast of costa rica? im taking my parents there on a long awaited vacation but im started to get worried...
Yalie, sorry to say, but we cant really tell how big or small this gamma is going to be. Looks like it will be greatly determined whether it developes an anticyclone to keep all the shear away. And also the path. We should know in a few days...
Thanks Trooper - we leave on Friday so we are keeping our fingers crossed..
Hello all. It has been awhile since I've been on. Hope all are well.
windnwaves, see you are up to your old tricks. Are you that unhappy of a person?! Why won't you just let it go?
I found the first part of the movie too bad to watch the second part. That doesn't give me the right to dis others who want to see it. As has been your practice since you came here, you try to make others seem inferior to you in ways, and I do find it disrespectful to anyone you are targeting, and it has mostly been 88888888888888g for whatever reason. This is not the forum for "proving" yourself and if it was, you are sadly lacking.
start a thread about the movie and leave this to discussions of the storm.

I agree blairkiel. You just haven't been on long enough to know the history, and it gets a little old. This is my last post responding to the drivel.
yalie relax and enjoy your vaca on the pac coast.
taco2me61 i saw the special on TWC i like it it was good

mouseybabe i am in sonora ca why?

Trouper415 than you if it come on one more time can you rec it for me and send it to me i would like to see it so bad

windnwaves frist off the storm in AK is done with and it was a ok storm but with a lot of high winds and lots of snow

code1 if it was, you are sadly lacking. what dos that mean hmmm if you are trying to tell me to get out of her and what do you mean hmmm that i am lacking hmmm i do not lacking and if that is the way that going to be then be happy to get out of her the hell with you i will stay and i want to lacking on her then i can i will do what evere i want on her so there lol


code1 i saw your post about me and you no what go to hell
haha, thanks i am trying to relax - but after seeing pics of what happened in october, i have been worried - but i actually got an email from jeff masters that officially calmed me down
88888888888g, I was defending your individuality only. In plain words, I was taking up for you.
code1 sorry there i did not no sorry this been a long year for all of us want this get done with td 27 and went this hurricane year end
Yalie, Dr. M is very good about that. He let me know the chances of a panhandle hit (less than 10%) as Wilma was cranking up.
I dont really watch TV much 888889. mostly just sports and other good stuff like the simpsons. However!!!!!!! if you give me the time when its on and what station, I'll try and record it for ya, I kinda wanna see it myself.

sorry everyone had to go to walmart for some goodies...

:-)

8888889gg yes I thought it was too and was just surprized that we have had so many cat 4 & 5's this year... Still waiting on Nov 30 so this would all end...
Code 1 thank you so much... That is why I am not on here that much anymore...

I just stay in the back and read or lurk if you know what I mean...
Trouper415 if you are recing it send me one ok
Here's a wind shear forcast loop that runs through Nov 18th.
Expert Sr. Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski says the system is currently forecast to move in a westward direction toward Central America, but there is a possibility that the developing storm could be forced to turn to the north

This is from accuweather.com
wow look at td 27 evere one 1004 mb right now it is geting big
wg thats what the ukmet shows as well
what does 1004 mb refer to? im a newbie
hey leftyy how are you doing ??? been a long time
windnwaves ths storm up there in ak was a big one not for ca but up there in ak they had 90 mph winds a hurricane in ak but the storm is now over for them i may up bate my blog soon
thats the pressure. 1004mb is like what 30.00 or 29.98in something like that
Yalie the lower the mb=millibars the stronger the storm gets
The ukmet & gfdl has her doing that. The ukmet turns her north a little sooner. Watch the Gfdl take her across, near land then stop & move n.
thanks - if it is getting bigger then im getting worried again despite an email from Dr. M saying Central Pacific Coast of Costa Rica would have 2 bad days of rain at worst
Hey Leftyy do you think that Gamma will get close to cuba or Fl keys???
yeah i am back thouhg. told ya in nov i would be taking a little break with all the stuff i had to do
1004 mb is 29.64in
any body interested i have my blog updated. if u want to stop in go ahead

lefty's blog
Before TD 27/Gammajamma can follow ANY of the models...it will have to get it's act together. Can't remember last time I've seen a more disconnected system... with a surface low so scared of T-storms it's run over 100 miles away from 'em.
64. dcw
Is anyone noting that the GFDL was initialized with TS winds?
Our local news shows my area right under the triple point. Tomorrow is going to be a doozy of a day. There is literally going to be a superstorm crossing the midwest.
Good night guys. I've got to get some rest.
8888888888888, i'm sure it's been a realll long year for you, sitting safely in California and all.

Try living in the path of all these hurricanes, then you can tell me it's a long year.
good luck tomorrow tornadoty. be safe.
SquirrelRJ yes it has i think evere one in this blog needs about 6 mo off of no hurricane out there
Nite torn...stay safe. It's gonna get rough from Midwest to the Gulf coast next 36 hrs... I'm sure we'll see a few more Nov. tornados as it passes.
71. dcw
"windnwaves ths storm up there in ak was a big one not for ca but up there in ak they had 90 mph winds a hurricane in ak but the storm is now over for them i may up bate my blog soon"

Thankfully, I speak lack-of-grammarese. The translation:

"There was lots of wind and waves in the big storm in Alaska, not big for CA, but in Alaska they had 90 mile per hour winds - a hurricane in Alaska! The storm is now over for them, I may update my blog soon."
The cat is telling me it's time to go to bed. Good night all and we'll be praying for no tornadoes tomorrow.
Hey Doc, I do agree with you we will for sure have some rough weather starting tomorrow nite and they say we will have some high winds and hail...
This is our ranny season and we normaly have very bad weather this time of year...
dcw STOP IT NOW
Sorry for the spelling error I'm hook on phonics LOL

:-)
Hey taco2, ..been viewing darn TD 27 too much, should be concentrating more on this front...w/ or w/o the twister potential, lot of severe stuff coming...yeah, after being so dry our area will go into rainy pattern...now that everything's dead and dried up...can't win.
be cool all
we might have to get some brothers in here to rough you all up a bit ya know what im saying g
well everybody have a great nite and I will chat tomorrow, be safe out there and for the gulf coast be ready for the cold weather that we will get starting on Wed... The high for us will be only around mid 50's and the low will hit mid 30's...


Good Nite All

:-)
night taco
I here ya Doc... What is dead will come down now and I will have even more clean up...

I just hope what is left of my roof will stay on untill the insurance gives me money to fix it if you know what I mean...
Nite all I have to give a class tomorrow. :-(

you too Boldman I will chat tomorrow if I have power that is...
Nite Elliston,
Nite Taco2,...I wont be on long myself...yeah that front will be a welcome cool down but we'll have to pay w/ some violent storms 1st.
hello whats up hows this storms doing
theboldman you got mail
replied to it
88. dcw
FAQ for newer trackers and hurricane enthusiasts: Link
What are the chances Gamma turns into a major cane?
90. dcw
Fairly low, Trouper. It is a possibility, but given that it failed to strengthen tonight my intensity forecast will be revised downward.

Or not. Just saw IR loop, its finally getting together.
OK folks, my area was upgraded to a moderate risk overnight, with a high risk south of us. Violent (F4-F5) tornadoes were mentioned in the outlook. Keep the midwest and midsouth in your thoughts and prayers today!

Tony
dcw,

now you sound like you work for the NWS !! just kidding, of course...

i really feel like a crystal ball would be as good as anything else at this point...

in the meantime, i'll just keep watching 27 and hoping it falls apart... i am not ready to cope with another cane in so fl until i get my mobile home reset on its blocks and the tie-downs tightened...

hope everyone in the north and midwest will all be safe with the fronts coming your way...

mouse