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TD 27 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:39 AM GMT on November 14, 2005

After suffering through the made-for-TV movie "Category 7: End of the World" about meteorologically impossible storms that nearly destroy the world, I came back to the all-too-real world of the Hurricane Season of 2005, which I would have thought was a near impossibility had you told me before the season started what would transpire. Twenty-seven tropical cyclones? Unreal!

Tropical Depression 27 is very unimpressive tonight. Wind shear is still rather high right now, at 10 - 15 knots, and these hostile winds are keeping the area of deep convection around the storm small. The shear may even act to tear the storm apart Monday or Tuesday. TD 27 does have the potential to grow into a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane, if it can survive the next two days and make it into the central Caribbean where the waters will be warmer and the wind shear lighter. I'll be back in the morning with a full analysis.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Here she comes
If this thing does survive the next 2 days, can you give us a ballpark of where it might end up as a hurricane? Is a U.S. landfall probable?
I expect that'll be addressed tomorrow morning, Trouper, if he doesn't respond. (I doubt there's much danger, and if there is, you have a lot of time to prepare.)

Yeah, the meteorology in the second part was really screwed up - they even contradicted Category 6 because the power was down in Chicago in that movie. I liked the subplots though (especially the crazy church guy kidnapping the kids).
dos any one no if the movie Category 7: End of the World is out yet and where can i find it
Dr Masters~ We suffered the same evening. Catagory 6 "Day of Destruction" was better & that was total cheese.

Quake asked of historical nov. storms
Hurricane Kate in 1985 was the last November hurricane to hit the USA, and also one of November's six major hurricanes. Kate was a Category 3 hurricane on Nov. 20 and 21 in the Gulf of Mexico, but weakened to a Category 1 storm before hitting the Florida Panhandle where it was blamed for five deaths.

Hurricane Lenny of 1999. It grew to be a 150 mph hurricane, just 6 mph shy of Category 5 status, tying Hurricane number 6 in 1912 as the strongest hurricane so late in the season. The 1912 November hurricane remained this strong longer than Lenny, however.


That's some highlights from here
Texas to the Bahamas has at one time or the other been hit by major storms in nov.
Not only is it out, it was on tv tonite, unfortunately. I don't think I've seen as lame or unbelievable a plot since Tornadoes! (or whatever that stupid piece of film was called) hit the airwaves a couple years ago. Love the part where the they locked the kids in a room with the hinges (and hingbolts!) on the inside -- and they didn't even notice! I didn't know even by the end of it who half the characters were -- or care! Ok, it snowed here today (N. Wisc) and there's a TD down south. Well, at least it wasn't (read hasn't yet been) a boring season!
watched only the end of Cat 7....afer Desperate Housewives. of course...it has to be understood, many in South Florida don't have the luxury of "normal" prepardeness.....people that have not ever needed to evacuate may need to do so...
& they were trying so hard to shut power down after the 1st 1/2 of the storm had past. I'm no expert about DC's power grid but ya think the front half of the Cat 5 would have shut it down. Especially considering the amount of damage & down power lines they showed. It was a laugh i guess, they could try a little harder though.
I love how the storm is a cat 5 when it hits FL, and holds it all the way to D.C.
Front half of a cat 5 to an area like that shown in the movie would be far catastrophic. Are the winds above 200 mph in the movie?
Cat 7 was so bad I had to turn it off - watched a show on the Bismark and SnL instead. Much better.
can some one tell me where i can buy Category 7: End of the World
so what i like weather movie so tell me what it is all about
88889 - you don't want to watch it. Jim Cantore gets sent out in the storm in a row boat. He does not return.
what is evere one talking about? tell me what it is about or tell me where i can buy it or if i can buy it
Sounds like they want the meteorologists to sound like idiots. Cantore in a rowboat in a cat 5, that pretty messed up.
windnwaves may be it will and may be it will not we will this have to see what this storm dos
Wow...gone for a few hours and TD 27 fires up...and it's mid November.

Diurnal could get interesting late tonite...or maybe not.
OK...from WV Loop - besides the westerly shear, another influence on development to consider...there is a definitive mid to upper level circulation back east of the surface low - near 11.5N 58.5W - that is firing off convection itself...and nudging westward. Most of the hvy convection today has occurred between the two being in close proximity. Need to see how this plays out...

Also noted an outflow boundary raced SW-ward in a long, sweeping arc across Trinidad and into Venezuela...seemed odd. Have to wonder if hybrid type situation not out of question yet.

And no, I couldn't bear more than 15 minutes of Cat 7 soap on CBS...TWC's Season of Fury gave nice retrospective.
I unfortunately watched the last hour of "category 7" tonight. They turn off the power grid in DC while the storm is over the city with 400mph winds. The characters are driving around the city as if running errands on a breezy spring day. They turn the power grid off(which by now would be long gone anyway) the temperature in the city drops 1.5 degrees F and the storm evaporates instantaneously. Are all agreed the worst made for TV diaster movie ever.

weatherwannabe- how bout the part where Joe Bastardi predicts the earth will collapse into a singularity.

Time to concentrate on more important matters, such as the new T.D.
God wasn't Cat. 7 just the most unpredictable thing EVER and it made weather people look Horrible!!!

SNowily - The Snowman

I knew we we're going to have 27 I mean anybody who thought Beta was the end was nuts I mean it's
"The Hurricane Season of 2005"
come on now cat7 the movie can not be that bad tell me what it is a about is it about a cat 5 hurrican is it a bout a cat 5 hurricane in ca is it about a bad snow storm in new york what is it or is it about a bad snow storm in ca tell me what it is about
look like a good movie to me where can i find it on tv any one or can i buy it
Aw wannabe don't tell him that!
888889...Cantore's fine, I saw him on the TWC special - which is repeating tonite. That movie tonite was on CBS...more boring people stuff than weather effects. Not worth your time or mine.
i do not get cbs so can some one rce it for me and send it to me i would like to see so bad i like weather movie like that one
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15N 67W AT 15/1800Z WITH A POSSIBLE 16/0600Z FIX
MISSION IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


System developed so we can expect some recon early tomorrow.
Get the models in line at least
gamma !!
5 minutes and i had to turn the show off. period. i prefer to live in at least a semblance of reality.
What I want to know is, how did they get Shannon Doherty????
so can some one rce category 7 for me i do not get cbs and i would like to see this movie so bad
What are the water temps gamma is over? Anyone have a map for that? Thanks
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

Link shows ocean potential, not sea temps. Still very saucy in the carib
8888 you dont wanna see that movie, would be better off watching "plan 9 from outer space "
i want to see that movie
what is so bad about the movie that you do not want me too see a 400 mph hurricane in D.C
Gotta love to hate the CMC model. GFS is still out to lunch on development.
Need some recon data.
i got the movie cat 6 what one more cat 7 look like more fun then the cat 6 movie lol
so can some one rce category 7 for me i do not get cbs and i would like to see this movie so bad

give me 3 good lol for me not seeing that movie lol
Last couple IR frames shows some explosive development with td27, so much for wind shear.
What are say some october hurricanes that have originated at this location. Anyone know any of those or have a map for it. Thanks
Here are some climatolgy maps from the TPC

Link
Agree with the blow up, have to see if it can keep it's pants on though. Last night 27 did the same thing but lost the lower level.
Effects from wind shear often seem to lessen overnite going into diurnal period.

Recon w/ the Gulfstream V would be valuable info/data...hope a flight is being scheduled.
OK, we get it, you wanna see the movie! Let it go. God. I doubt anyone on here taped it. Its over now and ya cant go back in time and record something. Just wait a while and it will be on cable somewhere in a few years. SciFi channel or something. It was a made for TV movie and its not liek they show those things and then have them at best buy the next day - usually cause no one woudl buy them. Thats why they are made for tv, not theatrical release, cause they suck.

let it go ok?

Back to 27. Who would have thought?
Think that was bad, I watched the Browns and Steelers!!
Well looks like we might get Gamma by the middle to end of the week. Also watched TWC Hurricane Season of 2005, and was very disappointed in it. Most of the show was about Katrina (which yes I will readily admit is the most destructive hurricane in terms of cost and lives to hit the USA in a long time).

But it was a show called the HURRICANE SEASON of 2005. I wanted to hear more about all the factors that made this a historic season, more about is this really globabl warming?, more about the other hurricanes (come on Stan caused more death than Katrina, but it didn't hit the US so it doesn't matter). What about Wilma than hit as a Cat3 when even the experts fiqured a Cat2 at most (not even to mention the experts said a cat5 would be very hard almost impossible this later in the season)

Anyhoot I will get off my soapbox, and for the record I have yet to see Cat7 End of the World, maybe I can catch it on Sci Fi or something (mumble mumble torrent cough cough).
Yikes.. is it possible we now have to watch for another possible hurricane cat 2 or 3 just to our east... will be holding our collective breath again here on the island.
Saw this in the local newpaper

Link

You know its a sad day when it doesn't quote the NWS or even the Weather Channel but ACCUWEATHER. Maybe its just me but the few times I gone to the site or read about ole Joe Bastardi..

I must be in a rant mood today, or maybe cause the goverment is so overtly screwing public service and the common folk for big biz..
well, hearing about that stupid movie made me glad i still have no tv since wilma hit...

i finally made myself watch the footage of wilma that my daughter filmed...i had forgotten that we watched the winds try to tear off her roof and not succeed, unlike many of the mobile homes around us...there was a lot of praying here that day...LOL... and neighbors returning said they had prayed for us, so that was very nice...it is surprising how wilma has changed our little park...now people know each other and speak more often...even tho everyone already spoke to me whenever i was out with my little scottie, rabbie, who thinks everyone in the world - man, woman, child, cat, dog, bufo toad - is his friend...

so now we've got a possible gamma, and the models projecting that it won't hit south florida...well, i'm praying again, but i will wait and see...it's been a very hard season down here...now if i can just find a windshield for my car, i will be ready to eveacuate if need be...

mouseybabe
orion,

i agree with you about the government... it makes me so angry that we pay taxes to support the nwc, and now they want us to pay again to see the info they collect...

mouseybabe
mouseybabe,

Yep, remenber when greed in goverment and business was the exception and not the rule (sad part is I am only 33).

As far as the NWS I am fairly sure you read a few blog posts back where the goverment was cutting monies to the NWS and trying to change to law so that if a private enterprise can do something the NWS is doing then the NWS should stop doing that.

Its starting to sound more and more like 1984 (not the year the movie) every day

As a bouns here is some more fuel to fire (also if you want to talk more about this subject email me here, I won't turn Dr. Masters blog into a goverment rant)

Link
Fortunately I didn't see the movie.

Unfortunately, some people will accept it as science, ignoring the real thing. After that other one featuring Dennis Quade (I forget the title) I had all sorts of people telling me that this could happen here and that we had better watch out.

But are these same people aware of the big Sumatran-sized earthquakes that we really do get here in the Pac NW and the need to be prepared for them? No.

Casey
Casey,

The movie you are thinking about is "Day after Tommorrow". Which is another hollywood science movie that makes for a great movie but the real science behind such things is quite boring and would take 100's if not 1000's of years to get to that effect.

Alot of people are thinking global warming is causing all the superstorms and werid weather. But the answer is we don't know because we only been keeping detail weather records in the USA for the last 100 so odd years (1888 comes to mind) and only had the techonlogy to see global weather for the last 20 or 30 years.

Theorically just could be part of some meta-weather cycle because remenber in the timeframe of the earth just a blink ago (10,000ish years) the earth was in a ice age...

And I won't talked about how many ELE's (Exticntion Level Envents) this old mudball we call home has seen in her long life..
I'm not really sure what some people's anti-Accuweather bent is here (typical politics notwithstanding), but has it occurred to you that maybe they're providing a service the National Weather Services doesn't provide? Similar to Steve Gregory's energy markets forecasts?

They have their business, their clientele, and they tailor the services they provide for the businesses they serve.

Or are you trying to say that competition is a bad thing, and that the NWS is the Holy Grail of weather?
Hey Lp,
I think the anti-Accuweather bent is a result of proposed legislation and regulation changes that would FORBID NWS from issuing forecasts that Accuweather could otherwise charge for. AND coincidentally, some of these changes are being authored and pushed by a senator from Accuweather's home state.
Some folks hear don't believe it is right to have for-profit weather forecasts, especially seeing how accuweather likes to exaggerate in order to drive traffic and sell ads.
here instead of hear. no coffee yet today!
Morning all. Here we go again... just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water...
I tried to watch the movie last night. I can usually tolerate bad movies when they relate to weather phenomenon, but that was THE worst movie I have ever seen (I only watched about 20 minutes of it) There was some freaky sub-plot with an older female preacher and her young apostle who believes he has to kill all the "firstborns" of DC. Unbelievably bad movie in every way possible.
NOLA,

Point taken. So we have these facts:

1.) The National Weather Service provides free information to the public at no cost (or funded by taxpayers).

2.) Accuweather is a private company that provides detailed information for specific businesses, notably the energy, transportation and to a lesser extent the education sectors.

3.) Senator Santorum has introduced legislation to ensure that item 1 does not undercut item 2.

3a.) Said legislation will not affect weather watches or warnings.

4.) The legislation as written may not be the same as the legislation as summarized in points 1-3a.

5.) Currently, the National Weather Service can undercut private weather enterprises like TWC or Accuweather because of its inherent, government-mandated, and necessary monopoly.

Personally, I don't see anything wrong with #3. That's what people are objecting towards, but I am always under the impression that the objectors are just of the opinion that Big Business should have no rights or protection from Big Brother.
I noticed that the latest Canadian model takes this thing just south of Florida and through the Bahamas. The UKMET does something similar but not as quickly.
I think Big Business has plenty of protection from our government these days. I also believe that business makes decisions based almost entirely on profit, not based on truth, justice, accuracy, morality or the well-being of consumers. That is why our drug companies and oil companies are posting record profits while poverty is growing in the country. A free market assumes consumers have choices. If prices are fixed and companies profiteer off of necessities, then we are not living in a free market. I am starting to ramble - again, no coffee yet. BTW I own a medium size business, so I deeply understand the issues. My local government funds activities which directly compete with me (using my tax dollars) so I know there has to be balance.
Good morning. Anyone here?
hi palmbeacher! Long time no talk!
((Scratching eyes, awaking from disbelief, in pajamas))

You guys still here? 27? If I can get the gunk out of my eyes by later today, maybe it'll all be for naught.. Maybe this thing will tear itself apart.

I blame the GDFL for this...
Hi all! Haven't been around in a while, thought I'd check in.

I hate to stir up global warming discussions - they get so ugly - but I do think I should note Orion (you know I'm not a flamer, and you're cool so I know you won't take it personally) that we have the technology to look at tens of thousands of years of weather, not 20 or 30. Studies on virgin ice cores from the Andes, Antartica and the arctic, as well as from soil cores around the world can go back through history quite effectively. A single tree can show a few hundred years worth of weather history. We might not be able to tell you the exact temperature on say, October 1st in the year 220 BC, but these tools are quite effective for long term global trends.

Just my two cents worth.
Hey Mandy, Long time no power! Been back to work and busy
busy. Had a lot of catching up to do!
and Mandy. What the heck has happend to the Noles?
Geez they have just went to crap.
Elliston, I was thinking the same thing. I saw a NOVA (or some other PBS program) a while back where they talked about global warming preceeding each ice age. They didn't determine cause and effect, but it made me think. They also said the warming period can be as short as 50 years! That's crazy talk.
Ugh. Who the heck knows. We're gonna lose to Florida for sure- well, they lost to South Carolina, so I guess truly there's no telling. Somebody needs to be out there running some dang laps till they can get their stuff straight!
I've heard the same thing (50years) My mom said they've found ice cores where the climate has shifted dramatically in as little as 25-30 years... something to think about.
Mandy, It was a terrific thing to watch Florida get beat by Spurrier. I am just hoping FSU can end the season without anymore losses. And DEATH to Hurricane Season. I am done. No more. I am not even looking into this new thing out there.
LpAngelRob,

I know NWS is not the holy grail nor is competition a bad thing. I am speaking of the goverment allowing private business to take over NWS duties without the NWS having to ability to dispute if said action would be for the public good.

As far as providing services the NWS does not have or can afford to have (again if their budget is cut then they will have no choice but to ceed services to a private business or a non-profit one).

As far as Accu-Weather my disfavor of them stems from lack of a user friend site, fear mongering and "big biz attuide". I will say for the record thier website is better than weather.com. Lastly also for the record I will say I have a personal bias towards wunderground but that is mainly due to it fullfills my weather needs better than other weather based websites.
Well I was at the beach all weekend with no cable, so I missed both games, but I hear the Florida loss was awe inspiring :-)
Our water is still to nasty to enjoy yet.
Hopefully it will clear up soon.
NOLAinNC,

I agree. And as far as LpAngelRob comment about Big Business needing protection from Big Brother. Seems to me that lately they are one and the same (ie note how many direct and indirect ties the goverment at all levels has with Big Business, of how much money tax dollars and big biz dollars, which are both our dollars goes to pay the campagin funds and lobbists)..

Any hoot I could go on for a long time. But as a I stated early this is a weather blog. If anyone wants to debate this please email me.
I guess the bottom line is we should all be investing in snowshoe companies LOL.
And Orion,
You said it perfectly.
Snowshoes in South Fl?? HMMMM That would
be different.
Last year it snowed on Christmas Day in New Orleans!
New entry by Dr. Jeff
An ecosystem is a set of checks and balances, within certain limits it can right itself and bring itself back to "normal". Once you go outside of those limits though, you either face it drastically changing in an uncontrolled fashion to a new normal (i.e. Venus where the greenhouse gases took over and now it's hot enough to melt lead on the surface), or it may overcorrect and swing way to far in the opposite direction before it can get back to "normal" as in a warming trend followed by an ice age. Either way, when you step outside those limits of easy self correction, the reaction tends to be rather quick. Not "Day After Tomorrow" quick, but quick in a geological sense.

I should give the standard disclaimer that I used to work for NASA on the EOS team (Earth Observing System) specifically on the global warming issue, so I may be biased. Although I went to work there because they were willing to pay me. My belief in global warming came after seeing the data that was brought in.
orion,

you may not see this, as dr masters has added two updates today already...

two quick comments..

first, the government is "outsourcing" all sorts of things to business, not just the weather... i am expecting any day to be told i have to pay for, say, a social security number application because the government will not allow itself to do what business can do, like print forms!

second, as to the drones, nothing surprises me... my cousin lives near white sands, and he says they use drones to patrol the borders... he's seen some interesting things in the sky...

mouse