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TD 26 forming?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:44 PM GMT on October 26, 2005

The tropical disturbance in the extreme south central Caribbean north of Panama appears to have spun up into a tropical depression this afternoon. A strong circulation has developed near 10.2N 81W, and some solid deep convection has built up on the northwest side of the circulation, near the coast of Nicaragua. Radar out of Panama can only see the east side of the storm, and echoes on this side are very weak. The system has a long ways to go before reaching tropical storm strength.

The computer models, as usual for a developing system, are all over the place. The general consensus is for a slow northwesterly track with a landfall in eastern Nicaragua on Friday. The latest 8am EDT runs of the GFDL and NOGAPS model don't develop the system at all. This is quite a contrast to last night's 8pm EDT run of the GFDL model, which forecasted a Category 2 hurricane hitting Nicaragua Friday. A more plausible solution is the SHIPS intensity model, which brings the system up to a 50-mph tropical storm before landfall on Friday. The wind shear is light--less than 10 knots now--and water temperatures are warm (85 F, 30C), so we should see Tropical Storm Beta here by Thursday night. This system could bring heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches to Nicaragua this weekend, causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Costa Rica and Honduras could also see significant rains from this system.


Figure 1. Early model tracks for developing disturbance north of Panama.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The strong tropical wave approaching the Leeward Islands remains disorganized today. The wave will spread heavy rains to those islands tonight and to Puerto Rico on Thursday. Wind shear levels are about 10 - 15 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm development. There are no signs of a surface circulation at this time. This system looks similar to the tropical wave that spawned Tropical Storm Alpha, so we'll have to watch it as it moves into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters
Overturned 32-ft Sailboat in Storm
Overturned 32-ft Sailboat in Storm
Wilma
Wilma
Hurricane Wilma
Hurricane Wilma
1946 Grumman Mallard, recently flown over from the Cayman Islands, met its fate in Hurricane Wilma.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

WOW We might have TD 26 at 5PM.
I just hope this f******** thing doesn't blossom into anything more than a TD.
Caneman - DITTO ...
Muahaha! I called it again!

*hugs self*
To answer NineMile's question from the previous entry:

Wilma did not really devastate any of mainland Florida, but she'll beat (I think) Ivan & Charley for two reasons.

1) She was BIG. Really, really BIG. TS winds can do major damage to mobile homes (you try holding up against a 2x4 thrown at 50mph), and water damage to already damaged homes will inflate totals

2) She hit WPB. WPB=Insane values. Damage to WPB=not proportional to the storm.
And for the triple post:

*kicks LBAR*

Get off that track or you're grounded.
No one but me has posted in 20 minutes...Lurkers Unite!
O Gal here holding my breath. I can't stand the thought of more storms. Enough already. Dr. Jeff you promised!
Jumping out of lurking to say that I am heading home for the night....
I don't know about everyone else's location but, it is to darn cold in North West Florida for any kind of Tropical System ..... Beta would freeze to death before it reached landfall here :-)
11. dcw
"Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a tropical depression could be forming in the extreme southwestern caribbean..."

5:30 NHC Discussion.
Fuller excerpt from NHC discussion:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF
THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT
ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT
OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
13. dcw
To: All tropical systems
From: dcw
Subject: Literacy
10/26/05

Do you systems know anything about physics? Repeat after me: "The waters of the Atlantic are too cold for tropical cyclone development, and Vince never existed to prove otherwise." Do not, I repeat, do not attempt to develop, or you will be recon'd. Any development on your part will be considered an act of war, and may be responded to by cloud seeding, accurate forecasting, or any other method we deem nessessary.
14. dcw
Link

I've initiated advisories on Mr. Beta.
15. iyou
Incredible photos from jamesgood72, HistoricEvidence, katica and stearnspoint! Thank-you for showing us, near and far, the profound power of wind and water.
I was particularly fond of the picture Dr. Masters posted on his last blog of the airplane that was pushed into a building. That's something you just don't see every day.
17. dcw
Lol, yeah.

Where IS everyone??
Danged if I know, dcw.....
19. iyou
If a plane can look weary, it does, and looks to be content cosying up to that shed, adventure over!
Probably still without power, not back yet from evacuating or just plain exhausted and sleeping.
21. iyou
Waaaaay off topic folks, but give hurricanecrabs' interactive novella a glance and add some lines! ;-)
Just added an entry to my blog too
23. iyou
Me too, but sequence off-I messed it up ;(-lol!!
24. iyou
Just messed up again-need glasses - 8) - have to slow down my reading...
25. dcw
You know, Palmetto...not everyone here is from Florida :)

IYou, link?

8:05 discussion looks like a copy+paste of the 2:05...
it's been awhile since I've posted. I think it's been since Rita, and I might of posted once during Wilma's 882 day.. Been so busy lately.. But hope you guys are ok. This season has been nuts.
27. dcw
We are.
Vince=proof that climatology means nothing.
Wilma=more proof that climatology means nothing.
dcw, I live up the coast aways from FL. Have been hit by canes before, and know how it can be. Had myself a bit of a case of nervous exhaustion by proxy, with all the watching and waiting. :-)
dcw, checked your advisory and website (which is cool if a bit complex for a technopeasant like me). what makes you think Beta-to-be will drift west, given the current NW motion? if anything, I see northwest to northerly motion in Beta's future
Wilma Sucked!!! I just got power back after 2 1/2 days... I feel lucky after not haveing power for a full seven days last year.

Lots of trees, screens, signs and power lines down. Lots of roof damage, but everyone is okay.

I hope nothing else forms. We don't need it.
Hiya finally all!
Thanks for the concern for us in The Bahamas. Nassau only sustained tropical storm force winds and my house had only a little shingle damage, despite the late arrival of my plywood not allowing me to secure the homestead properly. Our electricity and other infrustructure are intact. However, our cable internet service was off nationwide because it is connected through Florida.
Grand Bahama got a beatdown, though. :(
There was severe flooding of areas affected by Frances and Jeanne, including a mother with young children stuck in an attic because of the swell. :(
Graveyards gave up their dead and coffins floated down the road in some communities. My fellow photographers captured some of the destruction from a helicopter and I will link it soon.
Have a great day and all the best to eveyone this hurricane season.
Eric (mybahamas)


32. dcw
The westward drift is not certain, it's very hard to forecast slow moving storms. The NW is center reformations though.
33. dcw
I think everyone left because they thought Wilma/Alpha was the last of the tropics. Wrong. :D
34. iyou
dcw - sorry, I went out for a bit - Just go to the blog list - hurricanecrab - Interactive Novella.
The novella is really funny now. A little schizophrenic, too.
its mexico or flordia land fall areas
We Have TD 26.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX (AL262005) ON 20051027 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051027 0000 051027 1200 051028 0000 051028 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 81.6W 11.9N 82.7W 12.6N 83.7W 13.3N 85.0W
BAMM 11.0N 81.6W 11.8N 82.6W 12.4N 83.6W 12.9N 84.6W
A98E 11.0N 81.6W 11.4N 82.7W 11.8N 84.0W 12.4N 85.4W
LBAR 11.0N 81.6W 12.1N 82.5W 13.5N 83.3W 15.5N 84.3W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051029 0000 051030 0000 051031 0000 051101 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 86.3W 14.0N 89.2W 13.7N 93.2W 13.6N 97.6W
BAMM 13.2N 85.9W 12.8N 89.1W 11.8N 93.8W 11.3N 98.7W
A98E 12.9N 87.3W 14.7N 91.0W 15.6N 95.0W 16.4N 98.2W
LBAR 17.6N 84.9W 21.7N 84.1W 25.7N 79.9W 30.8N 70.6W
SHIP 59KTS 60KTS 50KTS 41KTS
DSHP 29KTS 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
ok thebige i'm impressed, where did you haul this in from?
dcw that is exactly right on the damage explanation. Also there is far more that can be damaged in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach (the tri-county area) than there is on the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama, which is fairly rural except for Mobile and Pensacola, and neither are even close to the size of the cities affected by Wilma.

To put it another way, had Andrew (Category 5 but very narrow swath like Charley) been the size of Wilma at its landfall strength, damage would likely have been more like $150B-$200B as opposed to $45B, as the entire metropolitan area would have been demolished, not just Homestead and other suburbs south of Miami.
...Tropical depression forms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea...
...Torrential rains for Central America...
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the government of Nicaragua has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua from
the border with Costa Rica northward to Cabo Gracias a Dios near
the Nicaragua/Honduras border and adjacent islands.

Tropical storm conditions will likely spread over the islands of
San Andres and Providencia on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Twenty-six was located near latitude 11.1 north...
longitude 81.5 west or about 100 miles... 155 km...south of San
Andres island and about 170 miles... 270 km...east-southeast of
Bluefields Nicaragua.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph...6 km/hr.
A slow motion toward the northwest is expected during the next 24
hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression has the chance to become a tropical storm
before moving inland over Nicaragua in a couple of days.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
The depression is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 15
inches across western Panama...Costa Rica and Nicaragua with
isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...11.1 N... 81.5 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$
To: dcw
From: All tropical systems
Subject: RE: Literacy
10/26/05

No, not really. Our mother couldn't afford our education!


;)
Wilma was going too fast to pull a lot of potential from the Carribian. Seems like where they develop & how many have been a month or 2 behind as well. ~ Oh, we jinxed central Florida cause we took the boards down from Wilma:) On a lighter note I wonder about this huge reminant from Wilma, seems shoving & pulling at it's 3 little latin wannabe cousins.
To all you can people down South.

Check out some real weather in the North
Mount Washington NH is 18F with sustained 50mph Nice wind chill of -6 or worse.
They only had 72 inches of snow for the month and broke 24 hr total of over 27 inches.
Mybahamas, good to see you are okay over there. Sounds like some places got pretty messed up. We didn't get much here except some gusty winds and lots of rain.

We do have TD 26. I guess we will have to see what happens. Moving pretty slow for the moment anyway.It'll probably move on NW, but I don't think NNW to N is out of the question here.
46. iyou
"Only" 72"!!?
MisterJimster if you look at the NHC track, Beta-to-be is predicted to be going NNW for the next day - how confident are we that she will obey NHC and veer west after that?
This tidbit from the 11 pm NHC discussion is worth pondering:
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL
WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
am off, g'night all
This QuikScat suggests to me that the center of the Panama disturbance may be over land or even trying to cross over to the Pacific side.
snowboy, I believe the northwest is the late october normal path, like hurricane Mitch Oct 30. What it is odd with models is increasing over mountain to over 60 MPH, which could indicate more north component on water.
51. dcw
Even if it - Beta != she - veers north, it'll still make landfall.
let's call her "Bitty"...not Beta...cause we all know what these women whose name ends with "a" are capable of doing to us...
On the other hand, if TD26 does move across Nicaragua and into the Pacific, she'll probably undergo a name change, which next available name, if I recall correctly, is Pilar.

Finally heard today that a fellow telecommuter (the company is in Boston) managed to get out of Boca Raton to his son's in Gainesville earlier today.
hi all...
will touch base later. got power back this evening after 63 hours in the *dark*, didn't like seing that lbar on the latest blob...
had to do some invoices fast (after HOT shower, always first priority after no electricity) to keep business running.
For those of you NOT in the area, what media is telling you. It's worse. Power grid is a mess. Municipal, county and state officials had it all ready and tied down. FEMA did not. My family was as prepared (we think) as possible and weathered pretty well, but many didn't.
Details when I'm not zzzzz at keyboard if anyone interested.
Good night!
Beta--unbelievable. What a season this has been.
Hello everyone, anyone else check in yet from Broward.
This is Gamma, from Lauderhill. The only reason I can check in is that my company opened in Weston this morning and Weston has power. My house is still in complete darkness. I hope the rest of the Florida people on this blog are all ok.
Will provide more details later but Broward County was hit with Cat 3 winds (now that admit it) and we were devestated.
My family members are all well, no one hurt. It was one wild ride since I last checked in last Monday morning around 6am before >>>> hit the fan.
Will try to catch everyone up as I can today. Don't know when I will get power on at work, saying it could possibly be around Nov 12th.
Gamma.
...Beta moving slowly northwestward over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea...very heavy rainfall expected in portions of Central
America...

a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the islands of San Andres and Providencia.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire Caribbean coast
of Nicaragua from the border with Costa Rica northward to Cabo
Gracias a Dios near the Nicaragua/Honduras border...and adjacent
islands. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the next 36
hours within the Tropical Storm Warning area.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of tropical storm beta was located
near latitude 11.5 north... longitude 81.8 west or about 70
miles... 115 km... south of San Andres island and about 135
miles... 220 km...east-southeast of Bluefields Nicaragua.

Beta is moving generally toward the northwest near 4 mph... 6
km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Tropical storm beta is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to
15 inches across western Panama... Costa Rica... and Nicaragua...
with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches.

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...11.5 N... 81.8 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 4 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven


$$
β's motion looks almost N or NNE on the GOES water vapor loop. Also, the area at 10N 37W bears watching.
Here are HTML codes for Greek letters, if anyone needs them.
23 named storms, and still going! wowsa, what a year, a record year at that!

it is amazing to watch nature at work, but it is also tough to deal with all the tragedy.

it is good that canes do have season's, gives people time to recover, and prepare for the inevitable next years season brings.
To hell with these carribean blobs. They can go take a hike for all I care.
WTF is wrong with mother nature? Isn't it enough already?
Caneman, apparently not. And uh, one of those blobs is already Beta....so the other blob could be the next or none....hmmnn...
Hey all...
I just got a look at the satellite.......wow.........look at all the disturbed areas..........geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzz........by the way I went to Hurricane Wilma........I set up approximately 10 miles south of Naples on Hwy 41 at a Home Depot.......When I figure out how to get my video on here I will share with everyone.............I tell you, sitting there and wind report from the NHC keep going up......that was a little scary......The eyewall on the back side was worse then the front.........be back later...........
Weatherboy - Were you in your car??
The 11am discussion from the NHC mentions a possibility of "rapid intensification" for miss beta. not good for central america.

whenever i hear the name, i keep thinking of "beta" as either a test version of a product, or an antiquated format for videotape.
Yes.......I parked up against the Home Depot entrance with Hurricanechaser and another guy.......I got out and filmed alot.....it was dark and scary......so alot of the film was hard to see.....I got a total of 5 hours.......it was intense and wore me out.......I should of gotten some more on the way out that morning but the cops werent nice if they saw that you were filming....so I got out while the getting was good.......From 4am until I left the winds only went down below tropical storm force during the eye passage which only lasted about an hour........the sky remained cloudy and still some winds and a little rain here and there..........
Weatherboy - Woah!! I am glad you are okay!! I bet that was intense...
when I hear beta I think of a Siamese fighting fish...not a good vision when thinking about a tropical storm...
Elliston - I agree...
another poss rapid intensification???
Good morning everyone...been busy, so busy didn't know blobby became Beta till just now...and drifting N? Come...on...now..
Hey Dee, good to see ya... Can you believe this s***!!!
Yeah, Dee, rapid stengthening seems to be a hallmark of 2005. here's what they (NHC) are saying...

With the small eyewall and good outflow in the western semicircle...
beta appears set up for rapid intensification. Indeed...the rapid
intensification index attached to the SHIPS model shows a 56
percent chance of 25 kt or greater strengthening during the next 24
hours. The new intensity forecast will not increase quite that
much...but does show significant strengthening during the next 72
hr similar to that of the GFDL. The intensity forecast may need to
be revised significantly upward in the next advisory if current
trends continue. One possible restraining factor is that the warm
water of the southwestern Caribbean is relatively shallow...and the
slow motion of beta will likely result in some upwelling of cold
water. However...the effects of this may not be felt for 24 hr or
more.
hey, hey all....and welcome to the world Beta
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG
60W S OF 18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N...MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN UPPER HIGH IS E OF THE WAVE
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/CONVECTION. UPPER WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N57W 11N59W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 14N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.


And here comes Gamma????

great.....Delta, I can see you'll have your day before its all over with as well!!!
? If we make it all the way to Omega....what will we call Greek small letter alpha...Alpha Jr?????? LOL
Good morning everyone, Hope you all are doing fine. Can you belive that we have a Beta and soon to have Gamma. What a year.
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/100 NM OF LINE 12N71W TO 14N76W...
And this sucker on the ir sat loopLink looks like poss Delta? Maybe Beta will eat up Delta.....hopefully...
Sorry caneman, you still have blobs on your hands in your lands...start chanting and blowing...doesn't look good for you.
NEW BLOG
oh, hey everyone...We did have damage in Titusville...there is a very old bridge that runs over the intercoastal to Kennedy Space Center. I guess a barge hit it and its impassible...said it could take up to 3 months to repair...unfortunately, that was my only way out to Playalinda Beach (well, I can go 2 hours out of my way to get there from the north). I haven't been to that beach since before Ophelia and back then, I heard there was no beach left...then Tammy and Wilma....
They should move the parking lot 1 mile inland if they were smart....
I can't believe how active the tropics are. It's just like the "energizer bunny", it keeps going and going and going. When will the meadness end!!!!!!!
Stormy, that is certainly going to make for a long drive to get to Playalinda. My grandfather used to take us there when my brother and I were kids..did a lot of surf fishing