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TD 24 slow to organize

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2005

Tropical Depression 24 is slow to organize, in part due to some dry air on the northwest side that is inhibiting it. However, all the forecast guidance points to a very favorable environment for intensification starting Monday, and the dry air mixes out, shear decreases below 5 knots, and ocean temperatures beneath the storm remain near 29C.
All indications are that this will be Tropical Storm Wilma on Monday, and Hurricane Wilma by Wednesday. Intensificatiion into a major hurricane by late in the week is a distinct possibility.


Figure 1. Historical tracks of tropical depressions that have formed in the western Caribbean in October.

Steering currents are expected to remain weak the next two days, and the computer models are forecasting a slow movement to the west or west-southwest. After that, most of the models agree on a more northerly track towards Cuba as a trough of low pressure swinging across the U.S. exerts a pull on the system three days from now. A second trough of low pressure five days from now will create an additional pull, that should accelerate the storm quickly to the north or northeast. This is a typical track for October systems forming in the western Caribbean, as we can see from the historical track map shown in Figure 1. It is looking increasingly unlikely that this storm will get "stuck" in the Caribbean and drift southwest towards Honduras like Category 5 Hurricane Mitch did in October 1998.
Western Cuba, Mexico's Yucatan, and the west coast of Florida and Florida Keys are at greatest risk. It currently appears that Gulf Coast residents of Louisiana and Texas have little chance of being hit by this storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics, nothing else is happening. I'll be back with a update this evening around 9 pm.

Jeff Masters



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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Morning,Fair

69F
(21C) Humidity: 51 %
Wind Speed: NE 12 MPH
Barometer: 29.97" (1014.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 50F (10C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi
all. Beautiful day here.
Guess I'm not totally here this a.m. Got my copy/paste messed up. lol.
Nope you are not alone. Looks like we may have another one coming our way. I was hoping that we would get away without having to put the shutters up this year.
Good morning everyone. Looks like we need to maybe get the generator out and make sure it runs. We were to take off to North Carolina this week but I think we will just stay at home. Dr. Jeff says Southwest Florida and the Keys but at this point who knows. Here in Winter Springs it is just georgeous and only 75 degrees. Have a great next few days before we may have to HUNKER DOWN one more time.
Morning OGal. It is gorgeous outside here too.
11am advisory out. The lower half of Fl is in the cone of uncertainty. Link
Great. Juuuuuuust great... Almost done with this blasted hurricane season and we just have to have another tropical depression, which is now slated to become a tropical storm and then a hurricane, possibly a major one! Fantastic... *sigh* I live in NW Florida, and the current models have me concerned, although Dr. Masters said they will turn more to the northeast and hit southwest Florida, but really who can say? I would never wish landfall on anyone, but man oh man... I really want to dodge this bullet.
Yeah, know what you mean, Pizzaguy. You hope it hits somewhere else but your own area, but then you feel guilty about wishing it one someone else.
Hope this doesn't end up being another Irene. We had over 20 inches of rain with that one. The lake in our backyard was inches away from the house.
The NHC 11am discussion on TD 24 is out.. Link
sngalla - cone of uncertainty is an understatement. They have everthing from the Bahamas to the east, Louisiana to Texas to the northwest and Mexico and Central America to the due west in the cone. When steering currents are light, they don't know where the cyclone will go. The GFS has it coming into the west coast of Florida and crossing the state, but that may change over the next week. These models shift daily sometimes by hundreds of miles.
I agree, Dawgfan. Yesterday half of the models had it going into Mexico.
Thanks ST. Been waiting. Think I'll head on out to the beach. Beautiful weather today in the panhandle! Off to Miami back to work tomorrow :( Need to enjoy my day today. Looks like either here or there, I will be in for some exciting weather next weekend. Have a good one everyone!
Latest official NHC 5 day forecast for TD 24 with "cone": Link
Subtropic: Touch Down 24 may become big news after the games today! It looks ready to accelerate in strength and size!
Site go down?
Whats up people.......
watching and waiting lol
Im in mourning........
Can somebody knowledgeable comment on the apparent size of this storm. My unscientific obsevation is that this year has had relatively larger storms than average. Is this indeed the case?

It looks to me like this storm is organizing slowly but with a large initial windfield. Do all hurricanes form small initial eyes, or can some organize with a large eye?

Probably land interaction is helping to skew the normal organizing tendencies, but I bet once it gets TS winds going, they'll be broad, and it's going to strengthen fast.

Other thoughts?
Zap
What the hey.....? Go to the kitchen for some tea, come back and everything was gone!
Bobby Bowden brought us to the promise land and he shall bring us down from the promise land with his son calling the plays and teaching the quarterbacks.......
I'm sorry!! I know the feeling.. don't worry that was just a stumbling block :(
Looks like a typical late season storm that will cross the peninsula of Florida and then head out into the open Atlantic. I've seen this script before......
I think Wilma eventually will follow her cousin Irene's path.
alot of great games on yesterday!! I couldn't keep up with all of them! LOL
All three Fl teams are struggling this year but the canes seem to be hanging in there just like the storms!
For SE,SW Florida and the Keys,

SE Florida Good Chance of Tropical storm force winds by Saturday, Slight chance of Hurricane force winds.
SW and Keys: Tropical Storm force winds likely by late Friday and chance of hurricane force winds. Remember this is late October and the majority of tropical systems that develop in the NW Carribean curve from NW to NE and hit the southern part of Florida, Cuba and Bahamas. Remember Mitch? Even though it did its dirty deeds to Central America it meander around and for several days and still came across Southern Florida as a minor tropical storm. Irene? She developed in the same area as where, soon to be Wilma and went north and went right over South Florida and the Keys. I will be very surprised if "Wilma" doesn't threaten south Florida next weekend.
wherever she goes, i hope it's not bad!
Where and how strong is the question..........I cant believe that I may still get a shot to chase a storm this year....thought I was done........
she's still a long way off and anything can happen.
anything goes this year!
Off to see the Dolphins.. be back later to see Wilma!
I think Tampa Bay is overdue.....and Its possible that she could head that way.....probably an Opal type storm at worst.....get real strong and die out quickly.....only bad thing with Opal was the storm surge......also Tampa Bays latitude is alot lower than the panhandle of Florida.....so she could be stronger.....Opal was very intense near the latitude of Tampa Bay...interesting.......
Assuming this this system will indeed become Wilma, the chance of a potential "Alpha" has increased. I never really learned the Greek alphabet: Maybe this is the year I'll get to learn a few letters!!
WILMA!!!

sorry, couldn't resist! LOL
Speaking of Opal: Once that storm decided where she was going, it was "on a rail". If that scenario had been moved eastward 300 miles, it would have looked a lot like I'm thinking this one is going to look like. Once it starts it's NNE move, it's very unlikely that it's going to meander around. The forward speed would likely be greater than 18 MPH. Opal was ain the first week of October, and this one will be the third week in October. There is very little history of storms in the western Gulf this late in the season. I think the the "Cone of Concern" will likely include Tampa Bay.
but how strong will the cold front be to get her to move.
that's the million dollar question
Well at least a fast moving storm will hit hard and dissappear...but the right portion of thes storm will have the increased wind speed and storm surge, and thats the portion that would pass near Miami.
lol, thelmores. whenever i hear wilma, reminds me of the flintsones.
she could go further north..depends on the front
Who would have thought that this posting was at all possible just 5 months ago...

National Hurricane Center
Nov 1st,2005

HURRCIANE ALPHA BEARING DOWN ON SOUTH FLORIDA.

Hurricane Alpha, 22nd name storm of the historic 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season is bearing down on the coastline of South Florida.

Hurricane warning is in effect from the Jupiter Outlet south to the Key Largo.

Winds of 85 mph with gusts of 100 have been reported in Nassau in the last hour.

Estimated pressure is 28.76

Position 78.9 West and 24.2 North or about 75 miles East-southeast from Miami.


No I don't want a another hurricane to visit anywhere but given this incredible season anything can happen. A tropical cyclone hits Spain. March of 2004 a hurricane hits Brazil. Over a thousand dead in US by a hurricane, with thousands more dead in Central America This is history being made in the analog of tropical weather.
But Miama is protected to some degree by its geography from a storm approaching from this direction, whereas Tampa Bay, and Southwest Florida are not.
I'm sure that once recon gets there she will be WILLLMAAA!!
LOL me too..couldn't resist
I was surprised to see that a tropical cyclone had hit Spain, but I was even more surprised to learn that in 1961, Hurricane Debbie hit Ireland, with winds up to 113 M.P.H.
If they can have a "Wilma", I'm wondering why the "B" storm couldn't be named "Bam Bam"?; Or maybe the "P" storm can't be "Pebbles"?
Well, assuming the storm passes south of Tampa then Tampa won't get much of a storm surge simply because of wind direction.

Now that's not to say this storm won't pass north of Tampa, or drive right up Tampa bay!
It all depends on direction, speed, and strength. Irene gave south Florida a whipping and there was no Hurricane warning in effect. Many, many people were caught in traffic when the eye wall passed over. Yes it was only a cat 1 hurricane but some areas got over 17 inches of rain. Wilma will have to be carefully watched Keys and SW Forida could take a direct hit. Tampa better watch it closely as well.
Will Wilma eventually make a NE turn ? and what would cause it to make that turn ??
I think the area of Florida, from Panama City to just South of Tampa is at greatest risk for a landfall late next week by this system.

The models seem to have come into better agreement on the northward turn and has it going a little futher west that the current forecasted path.... not much though. But if you look at the TROF that may come down and pull the system north, it may not be strong enough to push the system NE but rather N or NNE until landfall.

Clearly we have about a little less than a week before landfall will occur so plenty of time to watch it.
Look at the overall structure of the developing storm. Compared to yesterday, it is really starting to cover a large area and getting much better organized,
Yes, the upper and mid level low over California could set up Tampa for some action. Any thoughts?
matilda101: The storm does look better organized.
yea things are going on now on top of the center.
recon will upgrade when it gets there I'm sure
I remember back in the mid '90s, a hurricane somehow made it's way up the Gulf of California, and into Arizona. I remember thinking at the time how glad I was that I had never invested in any of that oceanfront property in Arizona that I've always heard about......
Robert, LOL!
I remember, I spent a few years there in AZ, and it was amazing to see the areas that I had been to be destroyed like they were
hey willjax...you still here?
I think it all hangs on that ridge of high pressure. If it stays strong, then its a westward track. If it erodes, its a more northward track. Although SST seems to be warm enough to support a major 'cane, I am curious about the chance for dry air and or shear to overcome the effects of warm SST.
tampawx: Yes, a couple of troughs will help sweep it to the NE. See Dr. Masters's post: "...the computer models are forecasting a slow movement to the west or west-southwest. After that, most of the models agree on a more northerly track towards Cuba as a trough of low pressure swinging across the U.S. exerts a pull on the system three days from now. A second trough of low pressure five days from now will create an additional pull, that should accelerate the storm quickly to the north or northeast. This is a typical track for October systems forming in the western Caribbean"
Watch the satellite over southern California as well today. It shows the upper level low.
I guess my question is....if it comes ashore in SW Fla...where's it going to go after that? Caneman, actually I'm surprised you're not curious about that, too...a Cat3 coming onshore the gulf coast of Fla can still make a mess when it exits into the atlantic...just curious, ya'll
I'm wondering when Wilma Flintstone will form! What about having Barney and Fred too
Compared to yesterday at this time we thought it was a Depression and with the last 6 hours of sat pics the a very large area of Caribbean looks to be under the influence of the depression and the upper anti cyclone above it is much much more impressive, meaning once it starts intensify watch out where ever it will go.
sup aqua buddy, yup still here!

Check out the Vis. Satellite, a thing of [relative] beauty.
i'm thinking a little north of "Irene" track
I guess my question is....if it comes ashore in SW Fla...where's it going to go after that? Caneman, actually I'm surprised you're not curious about that, too...a Cat3 coming onshore the gulf coast of Fla can still make a mess when it exits into the atlantic...just curious, ya'll

Yes I am curious. But to voice that curiosity here invites smart ass remarks or heckling that I would sooner do without. Too bad a straight, understandable answer here is like looking for a leprechaun's pot of gold...sometimes.
WillJax:

The visible is great. This storm seems to have energy ready to go from far far away.
Not that this is important...but...next Sat nite I'm doing a fireworks birthday party for my 15 yo daughter...can't exactly do fireworks in the rain...I feel like NE fla has nothing to fear from Wilma...but oh I have been known to be so wrong...
Oh you bet the right side of the hurricane, in this case the SE ward side of a NE moving storm would the dangerous part. If it came in at naples, not much damage to the SW coast of Florida to populated areas as there is very few people who live south Naples....but more damage possible for the SE coast due to winds out of the SW direction. Good news not much storm surge in Miami because of the SW winds moving the water away from most beaches. The storm surge would at or south of Naples as well
oh, sorry caneman...didn't want to stir up a hornets nest...I know you lurk a lot, but when you DO post, I usually get the feeling you've got a good sense of humor...I wish I could share this eyeshadowblue sky with everyone today...or put it in a jar for dismal days...
Thank you matilda. And thank you willjax for the link...reminds me of an ice skater with her arms stretched out...now watch her spin faster as she pulls her arms in...
it's still a long way out. anything goes this year! LOL:)
still a depression at 2pm 17.3 79.3 reconn in soon
yeah it could get scary this week
75. iyou
...of equal and relative beauty are the WV and IR loops, etc., at http://www.esl.lsu.edu
Everyones cool..........Its all good......Hey its october and we're talking about the possibility of a Major Hurricane hitting Florida........geeeeeeezzzzzzzz.....holy moly........shaaaaaaaaaa zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzaaaaaaaaammmmmmmmm..............lol
RobertForsman,

Do you live in AZ? I was raised in Tucson. I believe the system that you remember was Hurricane Isis in 1998. I remember being in the Navy stationed in Keflavik, Iceland, and watching Isis make her way up the Gulf of California. The "official" NHC forecast had her dying out in the mountains of northern Mexico, but I remember her making a northwestern turn and stalling in Arizona with sustained Tropical Storm force winds at times. I remember calling my Mom and asking her what the weather was like. Blustery and humid...
If this system were to hit Florida then it would almost certainly continue to track NE and go straight out to sea.

However the uncertainty at this point is just too great. There's no telling exactly when the trough will pass to the north of this system, how strong it will be, and what the conditions will be like after the trough passes.

It's even still to early to tell whether this system will decide to pass over Cuba and miss Flroida all together.

One thing isn't too early to say though: this will be Wilma, thus matching this hurricane season with the 1933 season! Dr. Master's say's she'll be named tomorrow, but honestly I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her named late tonight!
My thought: there are really 6 possible scenarios for this storm. Scenario 5a is probably the best-case, Scenarios 1 and 3 the worst-case. I'm going to make 6 forecasts based on each possibility, since I can't bring it down to any particular one!

Scenario 1 - the Mitch scenario, slides southwest as it had been, slams into Honduras or Belize. Catastrophic as it brings even more torrential rain to areas already devastated by Hurricane Stan.

Scenario 2 - the Emily scenario. Remains on a straight course into the Yucatan, and then into southern Texas or northern Mexico.

Scenario 3 - the Gulf Coast nightmare scenario. No landfalls, curves very late into the Yucatan Channel, then makes a landfall in the central Gulf Coast in already-devastated areas of Mississippi or Louisiana, likely as a major hurricane weakened from a monster.

Scenario 4 - the Dennis scenario. Basically the NHC forecast.

Scenario 5a - quickly recurves, hits Cuba and Jamaica at low or moderate strength, then enters the Florida Straits, only brushing south Florida, then into the Bahamas and out to sea as a weak or moderate hurricane.

Scenario 5b - same as 5a with one important difference: TD24/Wilma recurves past the Bahamas and makes a bee-line for the eastern seaboard.
Link Is a wonderful site and you can have up to 30 frames (10 minutes apart)of Western Atlantic and Caribbean sea
willjax, agree
Located north of tampabay, Crystal River/Cedar Key area. Fronts this time of year stop here or just north of here if they are not strong enough to push all the way down the penisula. When is next front to push down through here?
Link
lets try this again
Hi everyone-
I will be staying on this blog for a while even though I am not happy about what happened last night (refer to last blog entry).

As for the system, I have great concerns about it. The GFDl, though it shows it weakening a bit as it approaches the coast of FL, I do not believe strengthens it quite as high as I think it will, and makes it an extremely large hurricane half the size of Texas at least (near Katrina-sized). Since it will be over very warm Caribbean waters, I think that is entirely possible. Another concern I have is location. It reorganized a bit south and west last night, and, therefore, the path should be shifted west. I believe that puts Tampa Bay in a precarious situation next weekend. We could be talking about a strong, large category three striking Tampa Bay. Stay tuned...
looking at the low in CA right now to see what it will do
Link

She ain't movin' much, if anything, looks like a little bit due south... C'mon Wilma, bring it on!
Okay, time to play some tennis in this beautiful 81 degree, clear sky, 46% humidity weather!

until next week that is...

see ya guys around here later tonight
Interesting....


WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-TUE)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING REMAINING
CENTERED OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CONTINUING THE RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE
A CONTINUATION OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH RIDGING OVER THE AREA
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO TD 24. CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS A HURRICANE
(WHICH WOULD BE NAMED WILMA) JUST OFF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT MOST LONG RANGE MODELS CURVE IT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TAKE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AS
TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST IF
THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE. FOR NOW...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RAISED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HAVE ALSO KEPT SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR NOW AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED POPS (30%) FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED POPS BEFORE AND AFTER THEN.

one more time
Link

If this doen't work a give up
90. iyou
matilda - it worked for me the last time!
it works it an awesome link to sat pics of Carribbean
No, I currently live in Virgina, but lived most of my life along the Mississippi Coast just east of Biloxi.

I was recently back in Biloxi, and in a subsequent post, I will post my pics from that area.
Latest Discussion:

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR IS NEAR 17.1N 79.3W AT 16/1500 UTC OR 195 NM/315 KM SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH HINTS OF A LITTLE MORE BANDING. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND
GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.
My pics from the Katrina devastation zone (Slidell to Pascagoula) taken October 1 (five weeks after landfall)

Link
ahhh, cool... you should see my blog. Chalk full of pics in and around the Biloxi/gulfport area, where my girlfriend lives.
Tornadoty, agree with both your points.

Lefty has been a cornerstone of the daily entries to the blog, patiently answering questions (that had been asked many times before), posting data on developing storms, and providing insightful analysis. His will be awfully big shoes to fill if he stays away, and I'm sincerely hoping others with the met. background to do so step forward.

As for this storm, do not like the looks of it at all. Conditions are ripe for it to grow steadily. Particularly ominous for the Gulf coast would be if it "threaded the needle" by going through the Yucatan Channel... Too early to say where it's going, but as said don't like the look of Wilma at all, even at this early stage.
can u believe that damn guitar is still standing? They built that structure well. It was supposed to open Sept 17, but i guess they had to postpone that a little... :-)
Yeah...that was a shame...I wanted a Hard Rock Cafe-Biloxi tee shirt......
Great link Matilda, thanks. And how does one make things link like that?
This poor technopeasant has yet to succeed...
do you guys think we need to worry about this thing in the cayman islands?
I'm now thinking that my prediction 5a will be what will happen - settle in the Caribbean for a day or so then it's all northbound from there...over Cuba, the western Bahamas (brushing South Florida with its eye about 100 miles to the east) then up the Mid-Atlantic Coast as a Category 3 hurricane (weakened from a strong Category 4)...

Current - 17.3/79.3 - 1002mb - 35mph
6 hrs - 17.7/79.4 - 999mb - 45mph
12 hrs - 18.2/79.5 - 995mb - 60mph
24 hrs - 19.1/79.5 - 987mb - 70mph Near Cayman Brace
36 hrs - 20.3/79.3 - 963mb - 105mph
48 hrs - 21.6/79.1 - 939mb - 140mph Near Landfall
49 hrs - 21.7/79.1 - 939mb - 140mph Landfall
60 hrs - 22.8/78.9 - 965mb - 105mph Over Water
72 hrs - 23.9/78.7 - 947mb - 120mph
96 hrs - 26.1/78.4 - 929mb - 150mph Near Grand Bahama Island
100 hrs - 26.7/78.3 - 929mb - 150mph Landfall
120 hrs - 29.5/78.2 - 926mb - 155mph Over Water
Make that 5b, not 5a. There will actually be numerous landfalls, first in Cuba (Cat 4), then the Bahamas (Cat 4), then the Outer Banks (Cat 4) and finally in the Delaware Bay area (Cat 3).
Press link above your writing box for this blog and type in the EXCAT web address and press OK it will appear with your blog
crazy that sounds like a pretty scary best-case scenario... a little jog at many points on that track and you have major problems for US, not mention the folks in Cuba and Bahamas
I'm still getting over the GFDl that brought it to Rita strength yesterday. If that were to happen, I might have to change my stance on the link between global warming the this hurricane season.
Ive been on here almost since day one and personally im tired of all the bickering.......and for some reason there are only 2 or 3 that are always in the middle of it....if they have to go, so be it.....basically, people need to grow up......this is weather chatting room.....and thats all, nothing more ....nothing less.....except when these people are arguing.......then it is a mockery......an embarrashment to everyone who enjoys the weather in general.....I would like everyone to get along on here.....but some people rub others the wrong way with their arrogance.....we will survive as always.....
CrazyC83, I don't think that the water temps off the coast of the Carolinas can even supprot a strong cat. 3, let alone a cat. 4.
thanks for correction crazy, seemed like a pretty grim best case which was what you'd called 5a!
Crazyc83

whats the thought behind this prediction. Models, your own gut feeling, ????
Does anyone think we could get hit here in the panhandle? We've been very lucky here in Panama City the past 2 years...this one has me pretty nervous though for some reason...
5a would send this thing out to sea once done in the Bahamas. I do expect weakening once moving north - but remember, storms move much faster in the mid-latitudes, and this thing will be moving at least 25-30 mph when it approaches final landfall (115 mph near Cape May, NJ). The Outer Banks landfall would be at 135 mph, while the peak intensity (just north of the Bahamas) would be 155 mph.
check out the latest model runs... most of the global models show her interacting with the Yucatan more and going into the Central gulf. NOGAPS doesn't seem to have a good handle on her, GFS blows her up to Katrina/Rita size and strength, I'm tending to agree more with the GFDL and the UKMet models at this point...

Link
827
URNT12 KNHC 161834
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/18:19:40Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 14 kt
E. 290 deg 090 nm
F. 055 deg 014 kt
G. 305 deg 094 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C/ 301 m
J. 24 C/ 366 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 14 KT NW QUAD 14:58:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
SCF CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
This is my own gut feeling, which involves an instantaneous turn to the north, and basically goes north-northeast for a week before sliding back northward. Note that in the first few days, it only has to be slightly to the right of the NHC path due to the enormous differences a slight change in angle can make. Florida and the Gulf Coast get spared on this one.
Wow the gfs has shifted big time to the west... Not good...
Here's a link to decifer the latest recon vortex Link. Don't really have time to type out the decifered to ya'll now:)
Skyepony....does that vortex show winds of only 14knots? Thought the depression looked to be struggling a bit today. Temporary, I guess.
It has been getting better organzing thru out the day. The cirrulation is more defined, The upper atmosphere is better and better and now deep convection is finally is popping directly over the center. "Wilma" just a few hours away.
Posted By: snowboy at 6:02 PM GMT on October 16, 2005.

"[...] Particularly ominous for the Gulf coast would be if it "threaded the needle" by going through the Yucatan Channel... [...]"

I wonder how many hurricanes, being steered in the general direction of West Cuba/NE Yucatan, have "threaded the needle" through the Yucatan Channel. My guess is more than would be predicted by chance, it seems the Channel is a hurricane magnet, especially in the absence of strong steering currents.

Looking upstream at GOES 10 WV loop, I noticed that the ULL diving down the California Coast is around US/Mexico border now and seems to be retrograding a bit; perhaps it will not provide the necessary push to the midcontinental trough in time to grab this storm and pull it east below the US...

Just some observations, but if it does "thread the needle" I will be on heightened alert in Central Florida, especially if I see the trough making its move around that time of passage.
120. IKE
Latest GFS has shifted and has Wilma coming in between Apalachicola and Tallahassee.
121. cjnew
Ike can you post that model link...how do you get one that far out????????....thanks!
I don't see gfs model that far out can you link Ike?
The discussions out of Miami and Key West NWS offices is that they are becoming more concern with Wilma starting to effect the area on Thursday Night south of Key West and Friday and Saturday for the Gulf Coast and West Atlantic. Most concern is the Gulf Coast region at this time
I see Wilma headed towards Tampa
TD 24 seems to be struggling to develop. Still looks a bit more ragged today then ysterday. Probably won't be named "Wilma" for another 18-24 hours or so...
This is the long term GFS
.
.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
Well, even if soon to be Wilma doesn't "thread the needle" it could still be very bad at time of landfall. It makes me remember Charley last year, which rapidly strengthened after it came off of the coast of Cuba. Everyone from Fort Myres north to Venice was in very bad shape, my family has property over there and I went down a week later to check out the dammage. Charley also did particularly bad dammage to Winter Haven and Orlando, which was VERY supprising to everyone, and it reminds us that not just the coast is in great danger from "major" hurricanes. Charley still had 100mph winds when it crossed through Orlando in August 2004.
Doctor Matilda say " Expect baby Wilma to be born between 5 to 8pm today. The 21st child of the Atlantic 2005. The CDO above the center is looking better and better each hour.
This little blowup of convection's at the exact same spot as the earlier little blowup.... you can see it on the 30-image animation here; seems to hint that that'll be the center....
Greetings from Bradenton (south side Tampa Bay). Just a georgeous day! We could use some rain, but be careful of what you ask for!

Well, the Tampa Bay area has stood in line for a long time. To our relief we've dodged many 'bullets'. I do not have a good feeling 'bout this one.

Charlie ducked into the coast just below us and spared us last year (not counting others that had a chance to swing through here). How long can TB 'bob 'n weave'?

I do hope that this year's events in the northern Gulf has opened the eyes of of my fellow citizens! Get prepared now and be watchful.

Take care!

131. iyou
Matilda - Mother Nature must be exhausted!
Miami discussions always seem a bit terse, I like the Tampa and Mebourne forcasters, sometimes thye let their personal opinions slip through. Today's Discussions re: Wilma

Melbourne:
"THU-SUN...DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF TD 24...WHICH AN AIR
FORCE RECON IS PRESENTLY FLYING INTO...AND WILL BE GIVEN
THE NAME 'WILMA' IF IT STRENGTHENS INTO A TROP STORM.
1000-500MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STRENGTHENING SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
CUBA AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO. BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS
06Z AND 12Z RUNS. TOO MUCH DISPARITY AMONG MODELS MOISTURE
FIELDS/TIMING AND OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TO BE MAKING ANY
SIG CHANGES TO GRIDS BEYOND WED. EXTENDED COORD/CHATS WITH
SURROUNDING WFO'S HAVE AGREED TO WAIT FOR CONSENSUS OF LATER
MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS TIME FRAME.

Tampa:
"LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RIDGING OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS
GREAT UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
DUE TO TD 24. CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS A HURRICANE
(WHICH WOULD BE NAMED WILMA) JUST OFF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT MOST LONG RANGE MODELS
CURVE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TAKE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AS TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL
HAPPEN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND CONTINUE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST IF
THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE. FOR NOW...HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HAVE ALSO
KEPT SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW AND INTRODUCED SCATTERED
POPS (30%) FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED POPS
BEFORE AND AFTER THEN."

Seems like the are still in a reasonable wait'n'see mode for now...
cosmic Here's the answer to your 14kt question. From the link of how to read a vortex. (sounds like we're talkin gold here:) D. ESTIMATE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OBSERVED IN KNOTS. 65 kt means the highest estimated surface wind is 65 knots on this particular inbound leg. The flight meteorologist looks at the sea surface and can estimate how strong the winds are by what the sea looks like. At particular wind speeds, the sea begins to form white caps, then patches of foam, then some of the foam patches begin to appear green, etc. The key word here is "observed"; the meteorologist may not see the highest surface winds because of darkness, heavy rain or clouds, so often this number is lower than the maximum flight level wind. A "knot" is a nautical mile (nm) per hour. To convert to miles per hour, use 1.15 miles/nm; 65 nm/hr x 1.15 mi/nm = 75 miles per hour. To convert to meters per second, cut knots in half: 65 kt = 33 m/s. If not observed at all, this block is reported as NA (Not Applicable).
Yeah, there's no way it can be a major hurricane north of Savannah. The Carolina waters are cooling and Va. Beach is almost in the 60s. If it hits, it'll do so as a weaker hurricane, a decent tropical storm or possibly an extratropical storm if it stays in the water and goes towards say new Jersey. It can be a major in the Carribean and the Bahamas, but that's about it.
Exhausted Mother Nature still has about 90 days of tropical development left in her. Mr. Stud Atlantic must be so proud of all his boys and those naughty girls. Is Wilma going to be a naughty girl?
Remember Miami NWS and NHC are in the same location and share the same building. They must have the inside track of what NHC is currently thinking.
Who all thinks Tampa wil get Wilma?
Tampa is definitly going to be threaten
WOW the convection around the center is really flaring up now.
my prediction: Wilma will make landfall just north of Tampa around New Port Ritchey as a cat 3 hurricane.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING
THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL
IS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO FORM FIRST.
THE
GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN
THREE DAYS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FACTORS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE TO
ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS
MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON.


Maybe port charlotte again???
Skyepony.....thank you for the 18kt answer to my 14kt question:).......I take it from your explanation...and I also read the link you provided on deciphering the vortex....that on this particular run the maximum observed winds were 14knots?
Here are some links for anyone who does not have them:
Link IR sat. floater 1 on TD # 24 aka Wilma.
Link water vapor link for Wilma.

Link Intellicast Tropical Information (at top left of site is helpful info, outlook, discussions, wind analysis, etc..)
Link Skeetobiteweather, another useful site for tropical inforamtion, satelittes, etc..
Catch up with everyone tomorrow.
:-)
OK - stop with the Tampa thing please!! :-)
Weatherwatcher....I think you need to add more cowbell to your posts for extra emphasis.:) Whenever the possibility is mentioned of rapid intensification you go get all bold and large font on us.
Sorry tampagirl I just have a bad feeling about this one!
hurricanewayne, where are you located?
it's not even a TS. I've never seen a bigger bunch of chicken littles.
Im in Wesley Chapel (Pasco county)
DARN!! I am going to Tampa in NOVEMBER! Hope nothing bad happens there (or anywhere else). Wouldn't be too nice to have my Thanksgiving Day Dinner in a hurricane ravaged place! :-( Go away, Willllmaaaaaa!!!
i AM supposed to be flying home and coming into tampa airport on Saturday and going to howl o scream at busch gardens on saturday night. What are the chances I will a. be coming home and b. be having a fun sat night in tampa??!!!
You people in Tampa should not be getting yourself scared. It's way too early to tell track and intensity. This is a cyclone in a formative stage at a time of the year when the unexpected is to be expected. The models, for what they're worth in late season, are changing quite a bit with every run. Everyone in the whole state would be well advised to just be prepared, as everyone should be throughout the whole season. Everyone should have a huricane preparedness plan.
yeah, let's not go nuts yet. . . there is a possibility for rapid intenisification but lets remember that this is still a depression. Should it go into the gulf, then go "nuts". Nothing is written in stone yet.
wannabe hows my laughting buddy
TD 24 has not strenghtened. Might become Wilma in 24 hours. Or maybe...it will just go away...
still a depression wnw at 2mph and pressure down to 1001
as of 5pm
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH
... 4 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONITNUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO...IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

hopefully it will just dissipate??!!
New NHC track shows (if this nothward motion continues at the end of the 5 day period)that the Central Gulf Coast maybe at risk. From Panama City, FL to Cameron, LA. Including possibly, New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile. It is still 6-7 days before this could occure, but everyone should get their plans figured out just incase.
presure is getting pretty low, wonder when winds will catch up?
last one!

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. EARLIER THE DEPRESSION
WAS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD..BUT NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BYPASSING THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF RELATIVELY
UNMOVED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THESE MODELS SHOW LESS EROSION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND HAVE A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME
FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GFDL...WITH THE UKMET...GFS...AND NOGAPS CONSIDERABLY
FARTHER WEST.

Latest forecast track. A substantial shift westward for what it's worth at this early stage: Link
This thing is not going to simply disspate. Upper level environment is way to favorable for that. SST's are way too favorable for that.

We already have a depression, which means the foundation is set. The more organized she becomes, the more abuse she can take without falling apart.

Afternoon everyone. Can't say good, the Dolphins took a beating, it was very painful to watch. Then FSU lost last night and my Cards lost yesterday afternoon....Just checked my NFL "picks" and only hitting 50% which will not win anything! LOL....

Just caught up on what's been said on this blog. Looks like they are waiting awhile to officially name "WILMA"
(by the way.loved the link from the Flinstones!)

This is looking like an Irene path but will be stronger.
Nice to see some names on here I haven't seen in awhile. Not nice to see some names missing on here.

I will be checking in from time to time to see what is happening, Please keep the posts and links and your best guesses coming. I enjoy reading it all.
By the way, Broward Country Florida (SE)has had beautiful weather all day. One of those "Chamber of Commerce" type of days. At least all was not bad.
Catch you later.
Gamma (will we get to 3rd name in Greek alphbet?)
not really. . . the early tracks always shift. It could just as easily shift back tomorrow. With the high pressures and the trofs. . . anything is possible. I hope the Gulf is not hit.
why are you people freakin out about tampa already...this storm is 5 to 6 days away. Honestly no one cares if you are planning a trip to tampa or our going there. Enough about that...
looking at this historically which is the best tool we have for october storms it looks like it is going to either go through southwest florida or hit the yucatan which will weaken it and then go through central florida. You cannot compare this storm to charley at all. charley was a august storm and the atmospheric condtions are nothing like they were with charley. Charley was following a strong high pressure and went areound the periphery of it and td24 is getting picked up by a trough. In 2001 or 2000 hurricane michelle was in this storms exact spot and was targeted for south florida and it missed everything entirely to the east. The models this time of year do not pick up troughs that well and usually forecast them weaker then they actually are which is why i believe they are forecasting the storm to far to the west.
I think that it will strengthen and after it does get its act together it will strengthen big as happened with rita and katrina (both were weak for the first 2 days) and will affect southwest florida as a cat 2 or 3 storm after going through cuba. It will be a fast mover at this point in time and will not affect any other part of the U.S.

and please can we start to get some quality posts
Hi you all!

9:30 am in Cape Coral you could hear this noise: "bank-clank; bang-clang, wing-nuts flying..." And at 5:00 p.m., you can hear: "bang, bang, bang."

The first noise? Family removing the Hurricane Panels that have been "up" on the whole house since Aug 24th. What a beautiful day it has been!!! Sun shining! Nice Breezes!

Second noise: me, banging my head on the computer cause I haven't looked at the Weather blog all weekend, and now TD 24=Wilma is coming to my doorstep!!! Thanks!!!love that Universal Irony thing.

:)
and they called leftyy arrogant,lol
speakin of lefty where is he?
he's gone, his own blog
007, I agree. It would seem that the further west she tracks early on then wider her turn to the east will be before crossing to the Atlantic, putting the NW coast of Florida as a more probable landfall(Cedar Key/Big Bend region), not to mention the Panhandle and Alabama. I really imagine that she'll turn to the east before she can get so far north as to hit New Orleans.

However if she moves too far South then all bets are off. If she grazes the Yucatan then all bets are off.

Pure specualtion on this system this system: Cat, 3 status in the Western Caribbean. Trough will come and indeed be enough to swing her North and then Northeastward, And Cat. 2 status upon landfall somewhere just North of Tampa seems reasonable.
lets be nice please, everyone's comments are welcomed and we don't want to lose anyone else. Unless of course, you are here just to stir up a lot of trouble and make people angry..
Hello gamma.
WhaleMaiden, I feel your pain!
sorry gamma
Hello SubTropic and the rest of you.
Looks like we have many TAMPA area folks in here.
Well, me too. Go Land O' Lakes. Listen, Tampa is like Isreal - untouchable. Just calm down everyone. Hurricanes don't come here.

But it would be ironic if the last hurricane of the season blasted us!!!
Yah gamma, sucks about the Dolphins, another mediocre season in the making :(. Glad about FSU though, but not so much about UF! Oh, and the Jaguars won in a nailbiting overtime victory...again. Pittsburgh, or rather Maddox, just handed the game to the Jags at the end.
in 1992, after Andrew hit Homestead, then the "B" storm and the "C" storms both came in to Tampa that year, but I don't know how bad it was. I remember some flooding, but I wasn't there.
I tried to tell Lefty that he can't control other people, just how he reacts to other people. I was wasting my breath, he wants to take his ball and start hiw own little game. Will miss his posts but agree with you Wannabe, he's not acting like a big boy.
Wannabe let's keep on the weather. What do you make of the pause in Wilma-to-be's development?
Chicken Little, , it might be a good idea to at least wait until TD24 develops into a TS before making doom and gloom the sky is falling damage estimates and changing travel plans. The models are never that accurate this early especially when the system hasn't deveoped to at least a TS. Cuba is a known hurrican killer with high mountains and ruggerd terrain. It would probally weaken tis system considerably even if it turns into a cat 4. It is just as likely to strike Florida at cat 1 or less if it even makes it through Cuba. Then it's off to die in to Atlantic. I seriously doubt we will see another major hurricane strike to US this year.

thanks.
his own little game
whalemaiden, I don't know where you might have heard that, but in 92 Andrew and Danielle were the only storms to strike the U.S. No storms hit Tampa. Please see this link: Link
snowboy, I don't actually beelive there was a pause in TD24 development. I think the NHC early estimates were too high and it probally was not quite at TD level when it was first classifiied as such. I think TD24 will be a TS today.
i hav updated my blog, it has my td 24 updated forecast
Folks, new NHC path has Wilma-to-be threading the needle and going through the Yucatan Straight. This avoids any island-induced weakening on the way to landfall somewhere on the US Gulf coast.
EASTERN Cuba is a hurricane killer.....WESTERN Cuba is NOT.....
Hi All! So much for our disccusions last week about Florida avoiding another hit this season... could the ne gulf coasts luck be wearing off...? Thoughts?
191. IKE
Looks like a northeastern gulf coast storm. Just my guess.
Mandy...looks like FL may not make it out of the season without a hit.....
Not happy about yesterdays game :-(
Fair enough Wannabe, good point. Now not wanting to be Chicken-Littling, but a lot of possible unpleasant outcomes assuming Wilma-to-be develops and takes course as the NHC projects through the straight...
..another hit
That's what I was afraid of Ike... I wasn't happy either weatherdude. :-( Guess Tally better keep a close watch on this one, huh?
Cuba has signifigant elevation changes in eastern and western parts of the island.
You know you all knock lefty and i dont now the man but he has some good stuff to share with us - everyone here shows their true colors of being arrogant and stupid at times - this is a weather board not a attack board - i get tired of the BS on the board thats why i dont even bother - you all need to discussing weather and not personalities - so he started his own blog big deal - he did show his true colors: enough intelligence to ignore the idiots on this board...
Anybody have a good grasp on the history of storms "threading the needle" have there been many especially this time of year?
The coasts are pretty well protected by low heat contents. there are pockets of deep heat energy in the gulf but none are close to the coast, except for extreme southern texas.
Afternoon, folks. Looks like this next week will be a wee bit fraught.
cosmic~ all that inturprited just means 14kts is the highest winds the hunters observed visually as they headed into the storm. It is almost always lower than winds recorded at flight level & the surface wind speed they figure are in the stronger areas of the storm. ~Spent a moment, that's worth 24kt lol. I guess if i'm awake for the plane i'll try to do a little more inturpriten for the less studied. child's nap ended early~ really i figured the vortex & a little homework would surfice.

~hey Guygee! figured you'd be back soon watchin this. thanks for all the help & keepin up with my blog:) busy week. catch ya perhaps later, out for now
tampawx where does that leave you?
Hiya from The Bahamas :)
Is it me or have the model tracks on WU shifted significantly westerly?
Perhaps, wannabe....but I believe the elevation differences are greater on the eastern end of the island. I'm not absolutely sure, so I'd better check on that; However, the paths that storms take over the eastern end tend to disect the island, spending more time over the island. On the western end, storms more often cross the island at close to a right angle, spending much less time over the island. I can think of a half-dozen major hurricanes that affected the Gulf Coast that crossed western Cuba. The first one that comes to mind is Frederic in 1979. Perhaps Camille, but I'm not absolutely sure whether it did so, or passed through the Yucatan Channel.
Tampawx,

Didn't you just attack several people on this blog?
Fair point Wannabe, but look at how well little Vince did in the low heat content area he was in... In this season of seasons, "Wilma in the Gulf" does not sound good.
My Katrina pics

Link
208. IKE
The models have shifted significantly westward as has the NHC 5 day forecast. Might be more of a threat to the eastern gulf coast vs. west Florida than originally forecast, but that may change again. In reading area forecasts, the front that was suppose to come through the eastern gulf coast by weeks end may wash out or stall before reaching here...panhandle of Florida.
209. iyou
Robert - Camille grazed the western tip of Cuba.
mybahamas, the official track has shifted west yet, the possisbility area is the same. u can read about it on my blog
Sounds right to me, iyou
Getting kind of nervous here in Panama City Beach. We've been lucky for a long time. Let's hope it continues...
Robert, thanks for the pics. I assume those 2 story houses, the one with the 1st floor missing but 2nd still there; that damage was caused by the storm surge, not wind. Correct?
One thing I remember from the busy 1986 season: In late October, when Hurricane Juan was threatening the Gulf Coast, I remember hearing Dave Barnes (meteorologist at WWL Radio at the time) say that no hurricane had ever hit west of the mouth of the Mississippi River after October 21st in recorded history. So history is against it going TOO far west. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on the Tampa area.
Looking at Satellite, am I seeing correctly? It looks like the main storms are drifting to the south and the center (what we have of a center) is looking ragged? What's going on? Sheer? Time of day? Not looking as good as earlier.
your thoughts.
You're welcome, Gamma. Yes, that was damage from the storm surge. My sister lived on that very same street. I didn't take a picture of her house, because all that is left is a cement slab. Senator Trent Lott's house was on the same street, about a mile to the west; It no longer exists either.....
Robert,

Looks like Cat 1 winds to me!
Unfortunately, to me, this one has FL panhandle written all over it. Looking more and more like Tampa could be spared IMO.
Well we might get a chance to test our various heat content theories with Wilma. My prediction is that it may attain major hurrican status but it will not make landfall at higher than cat2.
Thanks IKE and turtle :)
I'm still waiting for my hurricane shutters to arrive and have built three plywood latched contraptions to create "safe" rooms in the house. I hope none of us have to deal with any more destruction this season.
PCB,

You mean me or the panhandle?
FL:

LOL The panhandle and you I guess. Where on the panhandle are you?
I believe the wind damage from Elena in 1986 was greater in Pascagoula than the wind damage from Katrina; But Elena did not bring the storm surge that Katrina brought. This was not the case, however, on the western end of the Mississippi Coast. There was significant wind damage. Camille's wind damage was greater than Katrina's. It's just that Katrina's surge covered such a large area. Camille's didn't affect Jackson County so greatly.
Can someone explain parts of the 5pm discussion on TD #24: (what is a)mid-level short wave

that is bypassing the northwestern Bahamas and this should allow some ridging (Is ridging a high pressure to the north)

to develop north of the cyclone over the next 24 hours. Consequently...a turn
back to the west or west-northwest is anticipated.
Shalimar, next to Eglin AFB
PCB- you think more towards p'cola or our way? (I'm in Tally)
huriga, it simply means that a small trough is not making any southward progress and it passes by the northern Bahamas and high pressure will fill in behind it. High pressure in that location would tend to steer the system more westerly. Hope that helps.
Guess you had enough with Dennis? Were you around for Opal?
229. IKE
a lot of folks on here in the panhandle of Florida...I'm in Defuniak Springs.
Robert,

Went to Jackson County after Katrina and the storm surge damage was incredible. Any place close to a bayou, even miles inland, got 10 to 12 ft of water in their homes.
Mandy:

It's hard to say, but based on the current computer models, I'd bet on the central panhandle (PC area, unfortunately). It's all subject to change though. Regardless, Tallahassee would be on the "dirty" side of the storm if that were to play out. Let's hope not, though...
PCB,

I stayed for Erin, Opal, Ivan, and Dennis. I won't stay again after seeing the storm surge in MS. Got back from my sisters in MS after seeing the surge damage and checked out the GIS on the county website. Half of Shalimar would be under water with a 4 or 5. A 3 would also get me as I am only 8 ft above sea level. Just purchased flood ins. and it went into affect 9 Oct. Hope I don't need it.
Panhandle, yes, the flooding in Jackson County was unprecedented. Almost every house in Pascagoula had significant water. Almost no one there had flood insurance, because we thought a flood there was such a remote possibility; The kind of event that might be expected to happen only every 500 years or so.
Subtropic, thanks. So was that (the small trof) what was projected to (be a stronger trof) that was to start steering TD 24 northward? but it didn't because it didn't move south enough?
How far inland did the surge from Katrina travel? More than a mile?
hey everyone, your all forgetting its gonna cut northeast soon after it goes north. this makes the panhandle harder to get hit than central florida and south florida
It appears to me that the convection is south of the "center." If you just looked at a still pic wouldn't you think that it was further south, and maybe west of where it is defined.
hurigo (sorry about the misspelling last time), The original thinking was that the high pressure ridge currently over the gulf would retreat westward and leave a "gap" in the eastern gulf (between the gulf and Atlantic ridges) that would allow the system to move north. Then a trough approaching from the west would shove it a little east of due north. Now the thinking is the ridge will not move as quickly as predicted, but this is VERY tentative so they could eventually switch back and forth in their thinking. It's very early in the process right now.
Turtle,

The models have all shifted west. They obviously are not thinking that the NE turn will occur as soon as earlier thought.
PCB...based on what I saw in Biloxi, the surge completely overwashed the Biloxi peninsula. Brett Favre's house in Kiln had significant water, and it is a good bit inland (several miles). It's hard to put into words what I saw in Biloxi. I hadn't been to Biloxi in 15 months (I now live in Virginia). I made my way via a zig-zag course down to Highway 90, and turned east in front of the Beau Rivage, heading down to Point Cadet. EVERYTHING was washed away. All the tree's leaves were brown. Everything was dead. All this in an area that was a busy, bustling area in the pre-Katrina days.
Parts of the bayou go well inland. My sister's house was about 3 miles inland but fingers of the bayou twist inland close to her so she got about 10 ft of water in her house. Some parts of the bayou twist up to I-10 North of Ocean Springs and the storm surge went over the Interstate.
it will definitely occur, thats how shortwaves work. it will be shrp too, so sharp that even if a storm be near th eyucutan, it will still be more likeoly to hit central florida than south florida
well said turtle. Those models are gonna shift around, it's not even a TS yet.
sry, i meant to say the panhandle, not south florida
Got it, thnx. I guess there will be a lot of model shifting over the next few days. Agonizing for those potentially in the path.
hurigo, that much I think you can be sure of. I tend to agree with turtlecane personally, but anywhere could be fair game at this point. Hopefully in a few days we will start to see something more concrete to go by.
Isn't the Biloxi area more succeptible to surge than the panhandle? How far inland do you think a comparable storm would cause surge in the PC area? Just asking in case I would ever need to evacuate...
Robert,

I graduated from Ocean Springs High and am quite familiar with the Point in Biloxi since 1966. I was over there the Thursday after the storm but never even tried to make it down to 90 in Biloxi. We travelled between North Biloxi and Ocean Springs. We had visited over there a couple of weeks prior to the storm and stayed at the Grand Casino in Gulfport. I drove 90 between Biloxi and Gulfport as I had not done it in a while and to show my wife all the old homes along the beach. Well at least she was able to see them prior to the destruction.
249. cjnew
PCB...just go by the evacuation zones for our area.

The models will be using the windsheild wiper effect for the next day or so.... lol
No need to look for a landfall just yet...
Lets just relax because after it gets named and really starts moving is when we need to get all antsy.
BYE!
Found an interesting graphic regarding October Hurricane tracks (from the NHC Hurricane Preparedness Site):
Try that again:





Well said cj. For those of you who are tracking this thing out of anxiety (rather than for hobby), I would respectfully recommend that you not try to "micro-manage" the storm at this early stage. You won't get anything you can use for a couple of days at least. Just check in from time to time and don't be afraid to visit the NHC website (I am talking to lurkers here... I know some of you guys already know all of this). NHC Link
Interesting, Jax....not a lot of activity in the western Gulf....almost none.....in October....
Subtropic,

What is your prediction for Wilma?
PCB,

It is. On the MS coast you have to go out 40 to 50 miles to get in a 100 ft of water. Here in the Panhandle you only need to go out about 20 miles. The current storm surge maps for Okaloosa County are pre Opal. The dunes are gone now so I believe it would have been almost as bad here in Choctawhatchee Bay if Katrina hit. After seeing the damage in MS from the strom surge I would leave if there is any chance of the storm surge reaching your house. I feel stupid for putting my family at risk needlessly when I stayed for Opal, Ivan and the other ones.
Well, Willjax, that scenario reminds me of Irene in 99.
We're always one step ahead of the NHC....We're acting like this system has already been named....
Sorry PCB, I don't really make predictions (accept for my own planning purposes). I did have a hunch that it would take an Irene track at one point, but I've lost that lovin feeling now. These late season Carribean storms are just too tough to figure out until they really start to move. I swore after Gordon (94) I wouldn't even attempt it. What are you thinking (if you don't mind me asking)?
Just some food for thought,
If we have a cat 4 or 5 out in the gulf and when it hits land as a cat3 you still have at least a cat 4 storm surge... It could also move as-far-north-as 15 to 20 miles inland (storm surge)... Katrina proved that to us when she came a shore and the damage she caused inland... So on that note I say we all pay very close attention to what she does and we all should be ready from south FL to LA
I do think that after Katrina there's lots of anxiety out there.....rightfully so. If this storm does evolve, and eventually threaten US landfall...I expect we'll see plenty of newcomers....very scared ones. If this happens let's do our best(as the old pros around here:) to keep things calm and professional....and do all we can to save lives if it comes to that.
Subtropic,

I have had a nervous feeling that the PC area of the panhandle is unfortunately due for a storm and with the shifting in the models, I would at this point, predict a panhandle landfall east of Fort Walton. However, it isn't even a named storm yet so a lot could change...
Of course once it gets into the GOM anything can happen. Dennis scared me when it looked like it was suddenly going to turn into the FWB/Destin area. They can speed up and rapidly intensify as Opal did. If you are experienced and understand all the variables then you can make your own decision when and if to evacuate. If not listen to your local emergency managers. Keep in mind though that they do not always make the best decisions themselves. I prefer to use my own experience and a blend of the NHC, local government, and info from the web.
BUT....there is a different in NOW...and August 29.....those were peak conditions.....what happened then will NOT happen in the middle of October.....I'd bet the farm on it
Let me repost my last (incoherent) post:

BUT....there is a difference between NOW...and August 29.....those were peak conditions.....what happened then will NOT happen in the middle of October.....I'd bet the farm on it
it is amazing to me how you people are ruling out targets already...especially when we are talking about something that is 5 days out and is not moving at all. If we recall yesterday the storm was supposed to move southwest but instead today it moved northwest and if you kno anything about the models then you kno that they forecast trofs weaker almost every time

the herald put out 30 pages of info on the errors of hurricane forecasts for all south florida ppl so plz do not rule out targets yet... it gets others worried and gives others relief when right now we just need to be going over the checllist of things to do just in case.
Yes...I remember Opal.....but that was EARLY October....
I'm not a meteorologist....and there's plenty of time to see what develops...if anything......but I think that turtle makes a good point about storms being inclined to go sharply and quickly north and east at this time of year as the troughs sweep them up.
Time for dinner...bbl....maybe this system will have an official name by the time I get back....
Cosmic,
I am with you, I think we old timers that do understand what to do should be ready to help anybody that needs us... That is coming from a person that has been through a lot of storms...
Don't forget Kate. She was a powerful November storm in the panhandle...
Kate was a rarity....it entered the Gulf under the best possible circumstances for a storm for that time of year....and it did fade a good bit as it approached Port. St. Joe
Robert,

I mentioned Opal in response to PCBs question about if he should evacuate for a storm hitting PCB not anything you posted.
Even though the models have shifted westward, I don't think we can rule out a Tampa, or close to Tampa strike yet. Remember, if that high weakens this thing will turn north and then northeastward. I still believe the west coast of Florida is a distinct possibility. These models are going to shift all over the place for the next few days, and I wouldn't be surprised if they shifted back to the east again. Thoughts, comments???
No matter what time of year it is, anything can happen as far as track and intensity. Until the storm develops and it gets in the GOM we will not know for sure. I do not discount anything until we have the first hard freeze and my grass turns brown. That aint happened yet.
The 1800Z GFS shows it brushing the North coast of the Yucatan and making a hard 90 drgree right turn towards Tampa. No place can be discounted yet especially not the West coast of FL.
nash, I agree with you. Way too early to rely on the models this far out. In time they will either stand their ground and verify (or fail), or they will shift all over the place. Time will tell and fortunately, we have plenty of that.
Looks like dry air may have the best of this storm. If it wants to survive, it needs to mix that drier air out fairly soon or there will be nothing left.
The 1800Z GFS shows it brushing the North coast of the Yucatan and making a hard 90 degree right turn towards Tampa. No place can be discounted yet especially not the West coast of FL

I wish the font was the same between the pre-post and post-post. I never catch my mistakes until I have posted them.
Historically speaking
Irene
Link

lili
Link

michelle
Link

gordon (where anything can happen)
Link

all i am trying to say is that anything can happen from it missing us entirely or it hitting us
Looks like dry air may have the best of this storm. If it wants to survive, it needs to mix that drier air out fairly soon or there will be nothing left.

Go dry air....go!
Lefty: Any updates? WillJax: Good map on October paths!
That's the hardest part Subtropic. I live in the south Tampa area and it seems as though the models have gone from a Mexico landfall to south florida to tampa area and now far west of tampa. It's enough to drive you mad. Is the general thinking that the high is not going to weaken as much as they thought yesterday?? What about the trough coming from California? Is that the trough that is expected to pick this up and swing it hard right towards the West coast of Florida? I'm still learning here, so any input is much appreciated.
miamihurricane12. thanks for the links. i've looked at them before, remember most of them.
i posted something about my experiences with Gordon previously (few days ago).
Gordon was a hoot. Major proof what can happen. Gordon went one way, then another, everytime we thought we knew where it was going, it would turn again. Going West;no East; no West again, etc. Then it did the bit Loop.
One thing for sure, the "original" track is almost always wrong because storm just forms and too much we don't know that will affect it.
Miami, Subtropic, great comments. This is early days yet and TD24 isn't even Wilma yet, the last I looked. So this is the time to double check your preparedness, not to be deciding who's gonna get it or not. A lot of those October storms brush my way, too, not just FL. I don't plan to go into my "Modified Stationary Panic" mode for days, yet. :-)
lol, dont even look at the models now. thier just gonna go back and forth. this storm will get picked up by a shortwave and turn north then north east. where it happens is what counts and this leaves a large cone of error.
Nash, rather than type all that here, let me give you a link to the 5pm discussion from the NHC. You might as well get it from the horse's mouth. The first paragraph usually discusses current organization/intensity. Second paragraph deals with forecast track reasoning and last paragraph is intensity reasoning. They don't always do it like that, but the vast majority of discussions, that is where you will find the various information. Here is the Link
I'm still thinking this is going to turn sooner and move north-northeast across western Cuba and pick up over the Bahamas and head for the US East Coast...similar to the 1893 storm shown on that graphic...
I am beginning to think Wilma (I know it is not named yet but I like to personalize these things) will stay out there just wobbling around going nowhere for several days. Not even looking good at this point; but I sure don't count her out. She is just waiting for the right time and then will probably do something that will put egg on all of our faces!
i am no longer posting in this blog. any questions or info will be answered in my blog. thanks you

lefty's blog
I wonder if Wilma may end up like hurricane Gladys in 1968 Link

Gladys made landfall to the north of Tampa and south of Cedar Key as a 977 mb hurricane as a strong cat 1 on late evening of Oct 18, 1968, and cross the Florida Peninsula overnight. However, it was was experiencing extratropical transition and baroclinic forcing, and deepened rapidly while it was over land to 965 mb as it exited Florida near St. Augustine! Viscious winds were recorded across the northern peninsula with hurricane winds making it to the Atlantic side from St. Augusting to Daytona.

I think 'wilma' will be stronger than 977 mb when she makes landfall, although a landfall as a major hurricane north of Tampa seems unlikely to me. But I think that her going on as a hybrid storm and tapping the energy of the trough that picks her up is a real possibility.

This is a well known photo of hurricane Gladys taken by the crew of Apollo 7 when it was about 150 miles southwest of Tampa. LinkNote the dry air entrainment and evidence of shear.
Don't think I've ever seen that shot of Gladys.
Thanks, St.Simons.
Thanks for the track of Gladys, that was long before I was in Florida and knew anything about Hurricanes. (WAs still in HS in NE Ark then and more interested in who my date would be for HomeComing at that time!)
It is funny now looking at all of these Oct storms of the past how many take similar paths.
Nice link stsimons. Thanks!
Think Miami, Torn, St.Simons all flipped over to Lefty's log.
Oh well. Just gives us a little more elbow room ;-)
all are welcome on my blog and i incourage people to post in both of the blogs and not mine only. just letting u know where i will be for now on because of the trolls

lefty's blog
That was just my opaque sense of humor (inferring that this blog is a physical space). I wouldn't want anybody to think I was saying anything negative about them.
Why would you let trolls keep you from what you've been doing? I've been reading these boards pretty consistently now for the past couple months and find the majority of the time they arent a problem. I see no reason to take sides when all we are really trying to do is help each other gather information on where these storms are heading, which is us.

Come on back Lefty, you're needed.
Subtropic, I checked your blog. You said you were interested in personal storm experiences. LakeWorthFinn had deduced where I lived, and asked me about Hugo. I posted a reply on her blog. Check it out, if you're interested.
I am looking at both blogs, but for now will be eating dinner :)
Thanks Palmetto, I'll do it. If you feel like typing (or copying and pasting), I would be glad to have it in my blog as well. If you'd rather not go to the trouble, that's cool too. I can read it where it is.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
204 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNDERNEATH LARGE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON. GREAT WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
DEEP TROUGH ON EAST COAST AND CUT OFF LOW ON WEST COAST MAINTAIN
BASIC POSITION WITH OUR AREA UNDER THE RIDGE IN BETWEEN. AMPLITUDE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS OUT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST CUTOFF EJECTS EASTWARD INTO PLAINS WHILE FILLING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING SHALLOW RETURN FLOW OFF GULF.
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT LOOKING TOO ENCOURAGING
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN MUCH WEAKER TROUGH LIFTING OUT. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT OVER TEXAS...NEW TROUGH ON WEST COAST AND FORECAST TROPICAL
CYCLONE SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST GULF WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OUR FAIR
SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. OTHER THAN NOT
BUYING LOW POPS END OF WEEK...GFS GUIDANCE REASONABLE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

Subtropic, it'll be copy and paste. Too long to type over. Sure you want it all?
palmetto,
Sure. Lay it on me!
Coming this Friday Oct 21st!

A new terror of the troposphere emerges!
"It came from the Caribbean"

Starring Wilma!

You'll Cry! as Wilma crushes the Caymans!

You'll Scream! as Wilma synopically slaughters Cubans!

You'll Tremble! as Wilma trashed Tampa!

You'll Flee! as Wilma flogs Floribama!

Coming soon to a Gulf Coast town near you!

Special guest star Lefty420 as commentator.
BWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

When do we get to see the trailer?
I imagine there'll be complaints....but Thanks! for the sense of humor, StSimons!!
Ok, Subtropic, you asked for it; you got it! :-)
Thanks palmetto.
God what has Mike been up to! Althought I like the 'terror of the troposphere' bit :)
Just read it palmetto. Thank you very much for posting that.
cute
Interesting that the pressure is down to 1001 mb--normally supporting a solid tropical storm. This is about the lowest pressure I can remember a tropical depression having.
It's hard to keep track of all these storms this year. Is all the rain that's been pounding the NE residual from Tammy or was that TD 22?
md it was first tammy than td 22 that helped to spawn a stroong non tropical and complex low that pounded the ne all week
In reguarding the pressure of 1001. I think it just shows you how much potential this storm will have, once it gets it act together. Perhaps it will strengthen quickly into a hurricane. Once when the center convection consolidates.
matilda101 I agree, once the convection consolidates in the center I think an explosive deepening phase, at least for a while is likely. Heat content in the NW Caribbean is lower than it was a month ago, but can still support a cat 3 easily, and if things break the right way a cat 4. My feeling is that with the slightly lower heat content and the day's delay in organizing a center means that Cat 5 won't happen before she moves into the Gulf, and the heat content in the southern Gulf just won't support a 5, althougha cat 3 or lower 4 can be supported easily.

One thing that is good, if 'wilma' heads for the FL panhandle or MS/AL, the water temp within 100 miles of the coast has cooled to 82F or lower--this makes it very unlikely, (but not imposible) that 'wilma' can make landfall there as a cat 3. The models seem to be trending more and more to the west, so the landfall across the SW or west coast of FL seems less certain than it did, which is good because the heat content is higher. I guess the worst of all would be a New Orleans area landfall--a Cat 2 or even Cat 1 would reflood the city.
That is what I have been thinking. Slow to build (48 hours or so), but once it reaches hurricane strength, it should jump through the Saffir-Simpson categories very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if Wilma went from a Category 1 to a Category 4 and dropped over 50mb in pressure within 36 hours...
One thing to note based on my thought of going eastward: the strongest hurricane to strike the East Coast north of Florida since 1900 (Hurricane Hazel, 1954) was in mid-October as well...
Gah, I stop paying attention for one week and this is what happens.
Was here for Hazel, but don't remember anything. Too little. Certainly don't want a refresher course with Wilma. lol
WTNT34 KNHC 162357
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND NOT YET ANY STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...
4 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
NOAA BUOY 42057... LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER... RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
AccuWeather shows cat. 2 next Sunday. Landfall near west coast of Florida, possibly Tampa? - http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?ocean=atlantic&storm=24&imagetype=move
Unfortunately, I think if that is the path that 'wilma' takes she will be a Cat 3. That is south of the belt of sub 82F water in the northern Gulf. Hope I am wrong about that though, maybe the trough will cause her to get sheared.
Dr M has new post.
There was a hurricane that hit the Brownsville and south texas area in 1968 or 1969 that formed in Mid-October.What makes the track of Wilma so different? We're having a heat wave here in Oklahoma and Texas.