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TD 22 dies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:03 AM GMT on October 09, 2005

Subtropical Depression 22
Subtropical Depression 22 dissipated Saturday evening, torn apart by wind shear. Its remnants will continue west towards the Carolinas, but are not expected to regenerate or bring significant rains to the U.S.

What's behind TD 22?
The tropical disturbance we've been following about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has grown disorganized, and now has 20 knots of shear over it. Development is not expected on Sunday, but some slow development after that is possible.

Deep convection has increased at the center of a non-tropical low between the Canary Islands and the Azores Islands. This low may become a subtropical depression on Sunday or Monday. Little motion is expected the next two days.


Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Stan
Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time, with over 1500 deaths caused. Stan will proabably far surpass Katrina as the most deadly hurricane of 2005; Katrina's death toll stood at 1242 at last count, with 1003 of the deaths in Louisiana. The grim task of recovering bodies in Guatemala continues today, where the entire town of Panabaj in western Guatemala was buried in a landslide, killing all 800 residents. Another 600 died in mudslides elsewhere in Guatemala. The storm also killed 67 people in El Salvador, 24 in Mexico and 11 in Nicaragua. Hundreds more are missing and presumed buried under landslides near Lake Atitlan in Guatemala. In a freakish double whammy, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake hit Guatemala Friday, causing additional damage, but no deaths. Also bizzare is the volcanic eruption that occured during the height of Stan rains in El Salvador on October 1. The eruption killed two and injured dozens. When you add these events to the magnitude 5.4 earthquake that rocked Taiwan at the height of Tyhoon Longwang on October 1, one might wonder if there is a connection between seismic activity and hurricane activity! There isn't.

October outlook
Historically, 20% of all Atlantic tropical storms have occured in the month of October. In a nomal year, this means we can expect two tropical storms, one of which becomes a hurricane. According to Dr. Bill Gray's October 2005 hurricane forecast issued on October 3, this year we can expect an above average October, with three tropical storms, two of which become hurricanes--one of those a major hurricane. We have already had two named storms this month, Stan and Tammy. Long range computer model forecasts continue to show that conditions for breeding tropical storms will be excellent until at least the last week of October, so two more named storms--Vince and Wilma--will likely result by the end of October. This would tie 2005 with 1933 as the busiest hurricane season ever. It is interesting to note that in 1933, the final three storms all showed up after October 25. If 2005 follows a similar pattern, we'll have Alpha, and Beta in addition to Vince and Wilma before it's all over. Dr. Bill Gray is not forecasting any November storms to form. However, we should get at least one, given the current pattern and continued above-normal sea surface temperatures over the Atlantic.


Figure 2. Typical tropical storm formation areas for October.

The next update will be Sunday around 11 am.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

how many records will be broken this season :(
Sir Left, I see STD has dissipated, and I see no longer mention of system south. Do you think there will be a Vince? And, if so, where will it be born?
Hey guys, got to get to bed. See you some time tomorrow.
just posting this in here since this is the new blog post..
strange...all of a sudden there's like nothing in the tropics of imminent concern lol

areas of interest though...
1. Surface trough stretching from the Bahamas to Puerto Rico
2. Remnant circulation of Tammy producing a small cluster of showers/thunderstorms just off of Cape Canaveral, FL
3. Low pressure between the Azores and Canaries has an outside chance of becoming a subtropical storm
4. Does the ULL north of the Lesser Antilles (that ripped apart STD 22) have a chance to itself become a STD/STS?
hurigo, the std 22 dissipated as the global models predixctied it would. they also predict a cyclone to develop sout of where it was in 24-36 hours. where did u hear of no more taljkm on it. if ur referingto dr.masters he hasn;t acknoledged it sicne the models started showing it
i am pretty sure we iwll see vince by tuesday or wensday per thje global models. will no more when they come out with the next runs in a couple hours
be baxck in a few. cooking some food. gfs should be out soon so i should have an update on any possible development than
g2g...nite
Sir Left, thank you, again. Not sure I understand your question re where did I hear... I am novice, yet interested to learn. Will study more. Do watch Dr. Masters' opinions, but also try to translate TropDiscussions.
iyou thanks for that link~ it had a link to the bill to privitize the NOAA & NWS in it. i've been looking for it.

Read this ~ It looks bad for our little weather habit.! Link

Looks vague in ways~ i can read law okay ~ We got anybody with more expertise in the area available for general translation?
I chime in once in a while but my job keeps me away from the computer most of the time especially when canes are near (that includeds UM home football games). Down here in the south, the Miami Herald is running a series starting Sunday 10/09/05 on the NHC and technical and funding problems. This is the link to part one. http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/12853399.htmLink
from last blog:
Jupiter - I will try to keep a limited subset of comments to
myself, the ones I feel are not relevant here.
Post-hurricane emergency management and privatization of the
NWS seem to be relevant topics. Also, no-bid contracts for
hurricane reconstruction would seem to be relevant. I am
sorry if some here to not like to hear about these things.
Please feel free to complain to the system administrator in
the future, I will be happy to submit my comments to their
judgment.


Please click on this post as "obscene" or "spam", and let's
see if the moderator of this site agrees with my statement
above.


I will not be run off by some minority of "overly-sensitive"
bloggers here.
guygee sorry I stepped away~ before I got to your answer & defending ya iyou stepped up with the link to a link to the bill.

If you don't think it should be discused here read more of Dr Masters blog entries before you blog. He has brought up the topic of privitazation at least 3 times now & has promised he would researce it further. This bill looks like it would put a end to knowing where the plane is, when it will get there & what the dropnose said that moment. The goverment weather sites would be no more, no insider could supply us with any info. All of our info (that we pay for with taxes) would comes from privitized companys (that we pay again) out of which they chose to show.
skyepony,

the NHS will not be privatized. Santorum is going to lose his re-election bid badly and the bill will be dead. Not to mention that Bastardi embarrased himself consistently through the hurricane season as Accuweather's top forecaster, and Accuweather is a contributor to Santorum.
commercial in the baseball game.
I do not want this privatized either but this is not the place to add political remarks along with information.

If I started a problem I apologize but guygee posted a very political remark and I called him on it.

Please everyone, this is a weather and good people talking blog that I really enjoy.

What's up with infrared. Everything out there looks like it is one big circle spin....

Thanks to Lefty, I will start moving somethings back into the yard tomorrow between football games.

Love all of your updates. please keep them coming.
commercial over...got to go back to the Cardinal game.
bigbay~ I hope your right. I understand Sen. Bill Nelson is against it (he's actually the sen. from my district). One concern I have is in the last week Bush inacted some sort of law he divised (power of wartime) that states (& this has already come to pass) "all info from the NWS to the media must clear some new govt' red tape (be approved by a 2rd govt' party), this includes forcasts. Alot of noise was made over this while the bill has had a quite back seat.
Skyepony - Basically, the way I read the bill, first we
would pay taxes to the NWS to collect meteorological data,
and then we would pay accuweather again to pass that data
on to the public. Presumably, all publicly accessible
government and university websites would be shut down. This
IS political, but it is obviously relevant to our little
community here.


I am surprised there is not more outrage, lefty and the rest
here can kiss most of their on-line resources and the great
current great content of this little blog goodbye. And
once the free (both free as in freedom and free as in beer)
NWS and the other government/university sites go offline,
you can bet that subscription rates would skyrocket for
commercial on-line sites.


Personally, I think this blog has been a great resource for
hundreds or maybe thousands of people in times of fear,
stress and disaster. It would be a shame to see it go.
18. iyou
guygee - The irony is, that I live way up north in southern Ontario, Canada and I was outraged when I came across this article a couple of months ago!! - but I am hands off when it comes to discussing American political issues - I would sorely miss this blog, the input, and learning more about your geography, climatology and your culture.
Look at the system stubbornly still shown as 96L.Invest. Link and Link - they look like there is actually a closed eye!
Earlier this evening I e-mailed Bill Nelson. I stated I represent several 100 people like mindly with him appossed to this bill (WUBA to you & me). I will contact his people, he is from my district & resides in town & is on the committe for the bill. DOCintheswamps had a great idea of sending why each of us think privitization is bad for weather, to the proper people on the comittee it is in. If Bill Nelson see's this to be helpful to our situation, at the proper time I'll set up a blog for everyone to leave those thoughts & then forward them where they could help us most.

If ya'll haven't noticed we've lost some freedoms lately. If it is for the good or bad i won't discuss. This we need to act on.

That's my last comment on it til we know more. Nite All! Happy death to STD22 though i wish i'd got a name 1st.
seflagamma - I guess when I mentioned a certain company that
is what set you and Jupiter and fflattiger off. Also the
post-Katrina articles.

The gist of that one sentence is I do not think it is right
that there were no-bid contracts let out for N.O.
reconstruction.

Instead of Floridians, let's hear from some N.O. and LA
folks to see what they think of those contracts! I heard
there weren't many people from N.O. getting hired to rebuild
N.O. I find that ironic at best. I really do not care
if it was a democrat or republican who did it, I just do
not think it is right.


Anyways, I will probably not post again until something next spins up, and I will try to be a little more sensitive to
people's beliefs so as not to start flamewars. But when I
see BS I have to call it BS.

And I do not mind if you all do the same.


Well that's interesting, Crazy. I noticed most, if not all of the major models develop 96L.
crazy83,
where are those systems your link shows?
Skyepony - I will watch for your blog, as this is an issue I feel very strongly about. I think that is a great thing you are doing.

I hope you can rally many people out of their lethargy.
They are just off Morocco, well north of Cape Verde. Likely moving west at this point (as the strongest winds seem to be in the northwest quadrant).
they develop 96l into a strong extratropicla storm, not a tropical cyclone. its over 24c waters. way to cold to support a tropical pr subtropical system is very unlikley it gets named at all
Hey guygee,
There is a lot of outrage over what's being proposed, w/ opposition voiced by all of us who were on late Wed. nite as blogger Scaldisnoel posted a request of opinions on matter. ..posts were around 4 am GMT or so Oct-6-05, if you want to read them. He got more than an earful....
83 its not moving west its moving north. and will be over even colder waters soon per the nhc

A NEARLY STATIONARY AND NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IS OVER
RELATIVELY COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ACQUIRING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVEN COLDER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
00z gfs still forms a very strong cyclone near puerto rico in the next 48 hours. its track has shifted east again so track is still suspect. waiting for rest of global models. also the convection is getting more intense and orginised near the suspect area form development in all the models. belive we could see a surface low develop in this deep convection some time in the next 24 hrs or so.
Lefty, thanks for the update on those Azores and Canary Island storms.

CrazyC, thanks for letting me know where to find those storms.
For anyone interested. St.Louis is up 7 to 0 in 5th inning.



the gfs dissipates the non tropical low in 36 hours. so it has little life left as its absoprbed into a trough that is helping to sustain it. looks pretty though but still to far north to be anything
32. dcw
Hello! Whats that in southern Bahamas!
DocNDswamp - I just read that whole thread, I don't know who
scaldisnoel is, but he sure came off like some lobbyist shill. Here is my pledge to keep informed on this matter and help you and Skyepony and anyone else who feels strongly on this matter to the best of my ability. I'll be keeping watch, please announce any efforts on this blog and drop me a line as well.

Signing of for now...
DCW,
commercial, St Louis up 7-2 now, rough 5th inning. But big St Louis batters coming up next. (3 mo old grand daughter sleeping like a baby since 9:30pm). Hopefully I will be giving the middle of the night bottle after the Cardinal game! love those grandkids!)

Looks from my radar like S Bahamas are in the remaining rains storms that left SE FLA yesterday. I am sure I do not know the real reason why but looks like you still have some rain to go thru before you get good weather.

Are you in the Bahamas also?
game back on, catch up later.
Skyepony and guygee, Actually I was suggesting to Scaldisnoel to copy all our responses and take it to his management, since he is affiliated w/ private forecasting firm...our comments are on record here though for all to see...solid agreement from a crew w/ oft-differing viewpoints...

I feel w/ the unanimous roar here and other weather buffs, along w/ aviation and maritime's traditional dependence, the proposal will fail as it should...needs to be watched, typical govt. cost-cutting proposal that ultimately fails citizens...if needed be glad to fire off letter or email to help.

Did someone say something about some tropical weather out there?

Oh yeah, ..our diseased STD22 passed away....silly storm shoulda learned about living in the fast lane...swingin' around fast girls like that ULL....
Reeltime......thanks for the link....I only get Sun-Sentinel.... you can't rely on NHC .....no way..if they are under-funded or whatever..they have no guts to even predict what might happen.....
Doc,
You are funny....
seflagamma, ..call 'em as I see 'em...LOL. by the way Cards looking good, as usual..I know - long-suffering Cubs fool here.

Lefty, hello....are you still here?
yeah doc wassup
Looks you might not have to go chasin' too far from home say, Thu/Fri.?

That model run places trop sys nearing Outer Banks to Delaware about timing of frontal approach, right?...
yeah looks like it. we will see if i chase it though. had to pay for some things this week so i am strapped but all ways will make due if i have to lol.

timming for development is a ligttle slower than last nights runs so looks to be 48-72 hrs we wil have a named storm or string depression. that looks good based on satelite obs. sstill waitinf for the nogapps to try to get a track concensus. the canadina forms the system way to north and the gfs is way to fast pulling ot north. it keep plowing it thru a ridge so thats not likley to happen. the ukmet looks good but makles formation not until 80+hrs and i doubt that. belive the canadian model track is so far north as it has it intereacting with a strong cyclone, std22, that we both know will not be there. so i think a wnw track towards nc to delware is good bet and timming will probly dwetermone exactly where or if a landfall will occur
Grandbaby been changed and bottled and now asleep again. Daughter said she has a 5 hour sleep at night so take advantage of it. The Cardinals just won their sweep of San Diego.
Signing off for now. Maybe will lurk tomorow but a lot of football games going on...Go Dolphins.
Good Night all.
G'Night gamma, take care..

Lefty,
That 114hr run developes that monster low mid N -Atl, behind it that building high..looks to have plenty time steering it mid-Atlantic coast before front affects..landfall quite poss if sys fires like models - near PR..heaviest convect/activity area on target..some impulse SW periphery ULL could connect w/ conv...zone to watch tomorrow..way early specu on what's not there yet though and yeah, progessions are always initially too fast..5 days is asking a lot...appears ULL circulation remains broad..w/ weakening poss 24-36 hrs...yep, it's gonna be interesting...

btw, congrats to VT..as you know my LSU Tigers finally awoke after shooting selves in foot half the game...hey hey..
yeah doc
Any way..late for me..good workout today.. hauled 6 tract loads limbs to the growing pile Kat dropped - 10 acres down..rest can wait..fish or football tomorrow..

Nite Lefty, all else...enjoy...

man u guys see the blow up of convection in the se cxarribean right wherei said cyclone will develop
stormchaser
the gfs run that lefty has posted earlier looked like thats the way the model take it, east to northerly to a northwest direction. At least thats the way it looks to me. Lefty do you have the latest gfs run from last night?
good morning everyone
I hope they don't try to take away the information from the public sector. That would be a shame!!
hello everybody

pretty large blob in the Caribbean lol
I agree!!! It will be nice to see history in the making, figuring that we will get to Alpha! Don't want to see anything bad happen, just history! LOL
the GFS (06Z) has a pretty nice...something developing out of...something hahaha and moving north between the east coast and Bermuda.

g2g tho..bbl
where are you Vince?
Lefty - been lurking between claims the last few days, youo hit it on the nail head again on 22, good work lad!
Yea-Kudos to you again Lefty!!! I still wonder about the blob in the Carribian
Shear's a little too high for anything to come out of that blob, right? (Though the shear seems to be dropping....)
It's supposed to decrease today. Looking at the GFS maybe going inbetween Bermuda and Carolina's. We need the rain
I think I'm a little confused about those maps, the contours in the first link and the colors in the second link don't match, even though they both say it's "shear"....
http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi says that 96L is now Vince.
VINCE IS BORN

TROPICAL STORM VINCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232005
1500Z SUN OCT 09 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 19.2W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 KT
Hopefully we'll get some rain from Vince.
Looks like Vince is headed straight for Portugal! o.O
I guess in the Carib. will be Wilma!!! Bring on Alpha!!
I don't remember when something formed in such a wierd place! Anything goes this year
i would like to no did TD 22 be come Vince or did this come out of no where and where is it going if any one have this ? for me let me no
STD 22 has left the building. This is off the coast of Africa going NE.
Wow, all this concentration of the stuff over here, and Vince actually forms near Europe. An extrememly unusual place for something to form, especially in October.
Works for me!!! Willllmmaaaaa!!! Had to go there!! LOL
eightsninegoodgame: a "regular" low turned into a subtropical low yesterday (though it hadn't been named - according to the discussion) and then turned tropical today.
we this need W and that is it and did you all no we have now past the 1995 hurricane year
we have vince
dos any one think that TD 22 could come back or not?
from vince's discusion Even though this system is situated over sea
surface temperatures of 23-24 celsius and is beneath a large
mid/upper level trough... it now has several characteristics that
warrant classification as Tropical Storm Vince.


Wow, this storms just don't play by the rules this year!
also, i hav an in depth analysis of global warming on my blog
It could, 88888.. In fact, anything in that mass area of storms could form possibly. will it? I'd say probably not. Everything is so cluttered, and disorganized.
from vince's discusion Even though this system is situated over sea
surface temperatures of 23-24 celsius and is beneath a large
mid/upper level trough... it now has several characteristics that
warrant classification as Tropical Storm Vince.


Yea, i was looking at that. Very weird, but this is 2005!
come out come out where evere you are W
i cant find a sat. image of vince , anyone hav a link?
Everything starts out disorganized.
I was getting ready to ask you the same thing turtle.
Gah, sorry for breaking the page! >.<
Vince looks nice. Steve Lyons made mention of it's eye feature on TWC.
Vince where did you come from any one no and when could we see W
who knows, maybe hurricane vince is possible
Vince has a eye how can that be it is not a hurricane yet how can that be?
Some ts have eyes. Some extratropical storms have eyes.
Because it's not fully tropical. Plus some TS can have eyes. Hurricane strength at 74 MPH is just when an eye normally starts to form, not always.
so if this is TD 23 and then be come Vince then the next one would be TD 24 right?
95. dcw
Hit my site, I issued an advisory before Dr. Masters! *happiness* Link
96. dcw
Yeah, eye formation is very dependant on upper-level structure of the storm. I have seen storms as weak as 50 mph (fully tropical) with well-defined eyes, and storms as strong as 120 (Rita) without.
that is not a ts lol. but i guess they really want to break the record of 1933.


next real development will be near pr. convection has been flaring and surface pressures have been falling. per the latest surface anylasis a low has developed.
well it look like that TD 19 and TD 22 did not make it and TD 10 did not make it to and not no that TD 10 be come TD 12
it was another way to get the 20th named storm and its basically in their disscussion

WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS
ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE
OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.
tropical; storms and cyclones are heat engines. tell me what heat engine runs on 23-24 degree waters lol. they wanted to break the 1933 recordlike we want to break the record. its bs and will dissipate in 24 hours. this is one of the few times the nhc looks dumb lol
dos any one think that we will past the 1933 hurricane year and hoe meane storm did we see that year?

Hm, that reads to me like they're very sure that this storm is Vince, and it's just a question of whether it's STS or TS. Doesn't seem like they're desperate, or they would have called it STS Vince yesterday as they said they could have.
ofcourse. if the nhc is going to start naming everything in the atlantic lol. i think tommorow they will name that huge ull in the atlantic as well lol. i must say if it was little further south i would be with them on itsd classification but it is not a ts lol
Only one more name left...
Guys, the storm had a well defined eye earlier.
aY, THATS NOT WHAT THIS SAYS. THIS SAYS THEY ARE NOT SURE ITS A TROPICLA OR A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. MEANING THEY DON;T KNOW IOF ITS A TRUE WARMCORE SYSTEM OR ANYTHING ABOUT IT. SPECIALLY WHEN ITS OVER 23-24 DEGREE WATERS. THATS UNHEARD OF. OPNE MORE TIME RERED WHAT THEY SAY

WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION.
Um....wouldn't we break the record anyway whether or not they called Vince a TS or a STS?
PRIMEZ, there are huge low pressure systems in the atklantic that have eyes. it has nothing to do with being a ts or a hurricane. its a very strong low pressure system yes. but tropical no.
new post just out from Dr Masters.....
ay, if they feel its subjective that means they held a vote lol and more people wantedto name it, but its not a ts or a sts. and it will be gone in 24 hours. its probly more than just wanting to break the 1933 record. they want to use some of the greek alphabet.

plus there is a developing system in the carribean and that will now be wilma and we have had a problem with the ladies this year lol
tropical; storms and cyclones are heat engines. tell me what heat engine runs on 23-24 degree waters lol. they wanted to break the 1933 recordlike we want to break the record. its bs and will dissipate in 24 hours. this is one of the few times the nhc looks dumb lol


OK lefty you know better than the NHC. Did you read the whole discussion? Man klefty this is one of the few times you look dumb.
I agree lefty looks like they are grasping at straws to get another name out there!!!
Left, what the heck is going on. ?Hurricane Vince? Is the naming of this storm solely based on satelitte imagery? If not, what else? BBC doesn't mention it. Is there a Euro Weather Service? Would be interested to see their commentary.
Hello all