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TD 20 intensifies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:15 PM GMT on October 01, 2005

Tropical Depression 20
Tropical Depression 20 is intensifying as it moves slowly towards the Yucatan Peninsula. More spiral banding is evident on satellite imagery this afternoon, and the storm now has two good outflow channels, to the north and the south. The wind shear has fallen significantly, and is now just 5 knots out of the east. The center of the depression is about 70 miles south of buoy 42056, which itself is about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico. The buoy recently measured sustained winds of 34 mph gusting to 40 mph. A hurricane hunter aircraft measured peak winds of 30 mph in the southeast quadrant of the storm at 3 pm EDT today.

The system is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Sunday, and will have to re-organize once it pops out into the Gulf of Mexico Monday. It will then have at least 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf. Wind shear is expected to remain very low, under 5 knots, and TD 20 may be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday. The forecast track is problematic, as none of the forecast models did a good job initializing this small and weak system this morning. Several models get confused about the identity of this system, and try to develop another tropical storm near the Florida Keys on Tuesday, and still keep this storm in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian model suggests that TD 20 will threaten the northeast Mexican coast, but move northward and threaten Texas as well. The coast of northeast Mexico well south of Texas is the most likely target suggested by the rest of the models, but we won't have a good idea of where TD 20 will go until Sunday morning, after the 00Z (8pm EDT) model runs are available.

Hurricane Otis threatening Baja and Arizona
Hurricane Otis reached its peak intensity early this morning--a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph. Otis is now a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, and is expected to slowly creep northwestward over cooler waters and gradually weaken. By the time it takes a more northerly track and crosses the Baja Peninsula on Monday, Otis will probably be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outwards only 15 miles from Otis's center, so only a small portion of the coast will receive wind damage. Heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches will be the main problems with Otis, potentially triggering serious flash flooding in the desert mountains of Mexico. By Tuesday, portions of southern Arizona may receive 3 - 5 inches of rain, creating flash flooding problems there.


Figure 2. Hurricane Otis.

TD 19
Tropical Depression 19 is far out over the Atlantic Ocean, about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. The environment for strengthening is fair, and we will probably see this system become a tropical storm tonight. A hurricane seems unlikely, as this system is expected to move northwest or northward for the next five days into a region of increasing wind shear. It will be interesting to see if this storm or TD 20 wins the race to become Stan--loser gets the name Tammy. If they both get upgraded on the same advisory, how does NHC decide which storm gets which name? I'm not sure the problem has ever arisen, and I hope they do something scientific like play a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors to decide.

Disturbance 500 miles east of Trinidad
A disturbed area of weather has developed 500 miles east of Trinidad and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands this afternoon. This disturbance is currently under an area of 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, but this shear is forecast to diminish the next several days. This may allow some slow development to occur as the disturbance tracks westward at 15 mph.

Hawaii
Flood watches are posted for all of the Hawaiian Islands as the moisture from Tropical Depression Kenneth moves over today. As yet, no heavy rains have impacted the islands.

Taiwan and China
Typhoon Langwang, a small but intense typhoon with 130 mph sustained winds, is headed towards a landfall on Taiwan Sunday. The upper-level outflow from the typhoon has degraded today, but there is no apparent wind shear affecting it, so landfall as a Category 3 storm is likely. Longwang is expected to weaken to a Category 1 storm after passage over the 10000 foot high mountains of Taiwan and continue on to strike mainland China on Monday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Stan and Tammy check.. Almost to Alpha.
I think they'd give the first name to the stronger system ..lol
we when V and W where are they and how soon will we have them
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/20:08:20Z
B. 18 deg 51 min N
086 deg 46 min W
C. 850 mb 1480 m
D. 15 kt
E. 345 deg 016 nm
F. 138 deg 011 kt
G. 053 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 18 C/ 1525 m
J. 18 C/ 1524 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 02HHA INVEST OB 18
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL WIND 15KTS SW QUAD 1933Z
the pressure was extrap at 1006mb, pretty much the same as befor. pressure is likley in the 1004mb-1006mb range. motion is nearly stationary. td 20 has even wobled ne or 45 degrees over the past 2 hrs. expect more erratic motion as she forms and since the steering currents are so weak

10-01-05
2:50pm-1005mb 18.80n 86.80w
4:08pm-1006mb 18.85n 86.77w
I think 19 would be Stan, and 20 would be Tammy because that's the order in which they developed into depressions.
That doesnt matter tornadoty. It's which one gets to TS first. Which looks to be 20.

Hey lefty.
torn not so. first system to become a ts will be stan. i think 20 will be stan befor 19 will be. 19 is under alot of shear right now and that shear is suppose to relax later tonight or tomm but right now it is void of any deep convection.

but the key is the first storm that makes it to ts would be stan. ur have to think objectively and either of these may never reach ts status. thats why u don;t plot names to themtill they are actually named
Dr. Masters has a wry sense of humor. I like that rock paper scissors reference. I guess he has to have a sense of humor to deal with this blog. I have to admit I find it equal parts amusing and annoying.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
I called the Katrina and Rita storms based on doppler estimated rainfall. Before the models and with knowledge of heavier cores of precipitation. It's preposterous and absurd! Does anyone have a map of the gulf rainfall and Mexico rainfall for at least September? Extremes are the averages within an average range. And averages are the extremes within an extreme range.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...DEPRESSION BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION
NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.2
WEST OR ABOUT 685 MILES...1105 KM... WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL... BUT IF IT REDEVELOPS
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... THEN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...14.7 N... 34.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

That was if they were declared at the same time.
19 is struggling and might get downgraded if he can not pick up some deep convection
Yea, 19 is getting knocked out pretty fast.
19 looks like its degenerated into a tropical wave to me.
man i found out i have nfl network yesterday. man i ove rthis channel. 24/7 365 footbal lol life is good
Man, I feel sorry for ASU. They are actually being hyped to have a chance against USC. They are going to get smashed bad.
carbo when is that game comming on.

man my vt boys looked good today. natinal chapionship baby lol
ASU 21 USC 3
My Gators look like a pop warner team today.
yeah jupiter. i was shocked
I think Chris Leak is hurt because some of his passes are so far off and that is quite unlike him.
Are any of the models picking up the system that is 500 miles from Trinidad?
not really
I did not think so but I thought I would ask the experts.
Yea, lefty.. VT is going to the national championship game. USC... I really doubt ASU lead keeps up. If it does, maybe Texas will get into the National Championship game.
what channel is the game on?

yeah texas looks good, only thig vt has to worry boput is miami and possibly florida state in the acc chapionship game
The Gators are getting waxed.
texas reminds me of the micheal vick led vt when they lost the national chapionship game. man texas can be explosive
since things seem pretty quiet around here today, lefty, do you mind explaining the GFS (very simple terms - not a "real" weather person, just interested)...I basically want to know how to look at the animation and generally tell if a "blob" of color would indicated a possible tropical system. I know it isn't very reliable so far out...but I am particularly interested in what is on the GFS for Oct for the East Coast...looks like something develops and goes right up the coast? But I may not be looking at it correctly. Thanks for your time and expertise...:)
lol yeah carbo. they looks so good the past 3-4 weeks and now this. just disgusting lol
USC is on ABC.. It's regional coverage though. So you only see it if you live out there. I'm just looking at it on espn.com

Otis is wimpiest looking hurricane I have ever seen,look at infared or watervapor and you will see what I mean,that is why it has weaken so dirastically.Tropical cyclones,esspecially hurricanes do not normally have convection that weak,otis,because of the lack of deep convection resembles a top - notch non - tropcal cyclone rather than a hurricane.
That Teaxas QB.. Vince Young I think it is.. He's right up there with good ol' Matt.
which gfs are u looking at?

i will suppy u with the link i use. usually u can tell from the bars if its a closed circulation and if they put an L in the middle of it u know its an orginised closed ciruclation of atleast td status.

Link
damn yeah i got the acc game, florida st on abc. they crushing syracuse. i need to get that college ticket lol
Yea, but that crap is too expensive for my blood.
yeah vince young is so goood. he will be a hell of a nfl qb. thats the nu trend now, these fast running qbs with very strong arms. vick opened the door and now u got his brother, vince young, uva's qb qb at wv. man they all over the place
yeah i know lol. wife won;t even let me order the tarver vs roy jones hr fight tonight. that will be a hell fo a fight boy lol
The tropical wave N of Leeward Islands continues to move west interacting with the upper low. There seems to be more showers and thunderstorms associated with it and I think still needs to be monitered closely, with high pressure to the north. The NHC has now been commenting on the system for two outlooks now but is saying that conditions are not favorable for developing at this time. Remember this is the same area K,O and R hurricanes originated.
I think boxing is fixed these days since it's popularity is so low.

And yea, Young is damn good. Vick really has lead the way for a new era of QB's.

Man.... Florida State pounding Syracuse.. Alabama crushing florida.. Regional coverage sucks today.
yeah it needs to be watched but the shear is 30 kts lol so it needs to get more west befor anything will happen
carbo yeah reginonal coverage sucks lol.
thats why i am watching nfs netwroks.man can't wait for tomm. redskins, my team, had a bye week last week. we gonna show that the monday mirracle was not a fluke. we gonna crush seatle tomm. man i love football lol
I'm calling it now... National Championship game..

Soon to be #1 Texas vs. Soon to be #2 Virginia Tech
sounds good carbo. will be a hellof a game
carbp its easier to say texas vs acc champion lol. it might be florida state now lol
But hey, Lefty. I'm gone for now. Have a good one.
No here is the national championship game..Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech...LOL...Dont I wish..LOL...hey I am gonna enjoy our 1-0 record in the Big East right now, I may never see it again..LOL..But the Gators getting killed today so its bitter sweet for me, BUT Yankees clinch the division so still a happy day..LOL..Sorry for the sports talk..LOL..
virginia tech=overrated
TD 20 looks better on satellite. I guess it goes to Mexico as the cold front is on the way and high pressure will build in quickly. After that high pressure system it looks a little better for a storm in the gulf. I thought 20 had a chance for north of Corpus but probability is down to 5%. High pressure is too quick.
It seems as though the Yucatan has been dry of late.
Just got home from the WVU/VT game and all I have to say is DAMN!!! Yeah, we didn't play our best ball, but Vick is something to see.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/iwxpage/adc/popup/hurr/allison/30DAY.gif

Allison seems rather rainy.
I love football and baseball. I like most sports. I do think most baseball fans also like football. I also think the opposite is not true. Lots of football fans don't like baseball much. Too slow they say. In reality, baseball requires a little more brain use to appreciate.
60. IKE
The NAM model has a low south of the panhandle of Florida in 84 hours. Has it coming across Florida from the east...heading west.

The GFS kind of picks up on this as well, but doesn't show a low in 3 1/2 days. Maybe that's what Bastardi was talking about the other day.
Well Saint the last advisory has it moving at 8mph, so its not that slow. One thing I do notice though is that some of models do slow it down when it gets inot the Bay of Campeche, at this same time a big trough is forecasted to move down from texas by the end of the week..The latest 18Z GFS that just came out shows this as well... Link..So maybe if it does stall in the Bay of Campeche it may come back NE, but that is too far out at this point adn I think we will see better model representation later tonite with the 0Z runs...
cosmic ilove football and basketball big duke and nc fan greatest coach in all sports coach k and then bill belichek, roy williams good to . if mack brown does not beat ou this year they will barbeque him and the longhorn lol. weather guy i know the ridge is there but as slow as this moves and the strenght of trough i puzzeled i agree with left reminds meof opal your take.
thanks weather marcus is he under 6ft that might hinder his pro stock. i thought chris leak was really good but after today ouch and cosmic football is the most mental of all as complex as the schemes are today.
The next 3 to 4 days it moves west or WNW, no doubt about that..But after that it may slow down in the Bay of Campeche and then get picked up by next trough that looks stronger and digs down into the Gulf, we will have to see the timing on this and if TD 20 slows down enough..But again this will not happen until later in the period.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 011746
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2005

...RECORD WARM AND DRY PATTERN MAY SOON GET A BREAK...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE RECORD WARM
`RAINY` SEASON ACROSS OUR FA...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT RELEASED THIS MORNING UNDER AWIPS PIL PNSTBW.

AS FOR THE START OF OCTOBER...SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD TSTM HAVE
PUSHED INLAND FROM THE E COAST...AND ARE NOW ACROSS THE SPINE OF THE
STATE AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NRN ZONES ARE FALLING INTO SOME DRIER AIR...AND SHUD START TO
WEAKEN AS THEY GET TO THE WEST COAST. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME
TOMORROW AFTN AS LARGE SCALE PLAYERS WILL BE IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND RIDGING SW INTO THE SE
U.S. AND TD 20...OR POSSIBLY STAN OR TAMMY OFF TO OUR SW.

WHAT MAY HELP OUT OUR DRY PATTERN IS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY 700 MILES E OF THE BAHAMAS...MENTIONED IN LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK. NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ATTM AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE UNFAVORABLE...BUT NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVING IT OVER THE PENINSULA
ON MON. GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND JUST KEEPS IT AS AN OPEN
WAVE. PREFER THE GFS SOLN AS NAM HAS NOT DONE TOO WELL WITH THE
TROPICS THIS SEASON. EITHER WAY THOUGH...WE SHUD HAVE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND THUS HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 40 PCT EVERYWHERE MON AFTN.
THIS VALUE IS A LITTLE ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE 60-80
POPS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MON...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-SAT)...DETAILS ARE VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN
DOWN FOR THE BALANCE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE BIG PICTURE CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUATION...AND PERHAPS AN
INTENSIFICATION...OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. HOW...AND WHEN...THE
EVENT PANS OUT IS STILL ANYBODY`S GUESS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD
A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...FIRST IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LOW SLIDING FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN OR SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BY MIDWEEK...AND FINALLY IN
RESPONSE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WHAT MAY
BE THE FIRST FULL LATITUDE (THOUGH MODEST) 500 MB TROUGH OF THE
YOUNG AUTUMN.

IN GENERAL...PERIOD OF MORE RAINS...AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF US...WOULD BE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING COMES INTO
PLAY. HOWEVER...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SORT OF TROPICAL/SYNOPTIC
HYBRID SETUP (NOTE: THIS IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TD 20 BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF OTHER ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST). BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF 20N LATITUDE IN OCTOBER ALWAYS BEARS WATCHING...SO STAY
TUNED!

if you look at the latest GFS...Link..Hard to say if that is new development later in the period that moves across Florida or is that TD 20..i am not sure...
That GFS had a hurricane moving W to E across the Keys about 1 1/2-2 weeks from now.
Also, earlier, it had two hurricanes. Lefty thought that the first was TD 20, but I am not so sure because of how far out in the period it was.
wg, motion was set at what it was but going by recon fixes motions was a drift as was stated in the advisory so right now it aint moving anywhere

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
torn there are 2 systems, one i doubt will form and the second is td 20 as td 20 just lingers in the bay for 3-4 days than shoots ne
A. 01/21:26:30Z
B. 19 deg 06 min N
086 deg 32 min W
C. 850 mb 1477 m
D. 25 kt
E. 325 deg 069 nm
F. 055 deg 022 kt
G. 325 deg 069 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 18 C/ 1524 m
J. 18 C/ 1519 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 02HHA INVEST OB 21
MAX FL WIND 31 KT N QUAD 20:42:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 253 / 12NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

But Lefty, now I'm confused. If I remember right, that second system was 10-13 days out.
Oh ok havent been paying attention much on this stuff today..Just started looking..LOL..Still TD 20 doesnt impress me but we will see...
motion is still erratci and likley to be due to center reformations. motion looks to be ne or 40-45 degress at around 3-5kts

here are recon center fixes

10-01-05
2:50pm-1005mb 18.80n 86.80w
4:08pm-1006mb 18.85n 86.77w
5:26pm-1006mb 19.10n 86.53w
Look at the link i gave on the new GFS torn it will show it all..
BBL..have to ride bikes with son before it gets dark...
the key to the gfs right now is it never takes the td all the way on shore. it sits in the bay for sometime. than its energy spawns 2-3 systems. thats unlikley so i simplify it to say either one of those systems moving ne into florida could be td 20. thay all take the same track and is spawned form the bay of campeche. in the next few runs the gfs will start to pick up on whatever will happen

must note that with the flightlevel winds of 31kts in the last recon she is getting stronger and will likely be a ts by tonight or tomm
78. IKE
Looks like the trough/low/whatever it is in the Atlantic, may be in the gulf in 4 days...even the Key West discussion talks about it...."Rest of the week including Saturday...unfortunately...this remains a
dilemma with weather of high uncertainty. Expect a trough or area of
lower pressures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico that may increase
moisture content of the atmosphere through the Keys. In spite of
various computer guidance solutions to what may evolve within that
low pressure trough...most guidance maintains a confused and rather
light south to southeast flow. Maintained 40 percent probability of precipitation for
now...but would not be surprised to see higher probability of precipitation soon for
Wednesday and Thursday and stronger southeast winds."

I've seen that link weatherguy03.
Based on the satellite, I think 10 PM CDT for TS Stan sounds good.
Weatherguy03.. just back to football for a second.. Rutgers keeps getting more and more players from South Florida area.. they will be getting better and better all the time! hang in there...

ok, back to weather.....
Yeah Bills hopefully a bowl game by next season..Maybe this season i hope..LOL....yeah we will see the model runs at 0Z and see what they do..At this point something is coming towards Florida by the end of next week, who knows what it will be..LOL..
so what could ca see this winter if we are geting a lot of hurricane this year? any one no
84. dcw
Hello all. I've set up a site with discussion boards, at the moment registration is not required, so head on over there and keep Dr. Master's blog clear.

By the way, Dr., I read the hunting hugo story on this site, and you may be intrested to know that I personally know Alan Goldstein. Small world. :D

Knowing HTML rules.

Link
Rutgers coach, ex-Canes assistant knows the area well and who he can and can't get... smart guy..

Weatherguy, from which direction east or west?? I looked at Lefty's model and am more confused now... thanks!
Roll Tide Roll!
From the Gulf billsfan, but also may get a wave from the east as well this week and bring us alot of rain with this persistent easterly flow setting up..
Check out the weather cam at Cozumel on wxnation.com! This storm is getting larger by the minute.
The GFS doesnt' have a good handle on the storm right now. You can pretty much discount everything it says about the storm until later runs.
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.7 W. MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
Hey Lefty, look at this:

Link

Huge wave coming off of Africa.
What are the chances of a hurricane hitting South Florida, i.e. Miami from now till the end of this hurricane season???
this is hwat the gfs is showing. this system will get into the bay and will stall. thats not a good sign as it will likley get pushed ne when the next front comes thur. most models do nto have her atcually making a second landfall in mexico. just sitting there and intenisfying

Interesting. The NOGAPS and GFDL both have it curving back to the east, JUST LIKE OPAL, except a wider turn.
reminds me Of Roxanne
well it mainly shows the steering currents will be very weak and the system will be just sitting there waiting for somethoing to push or pull it anmd that will likley be that front. thats why i say that what the gfs is showing us is that the system will be kicked across the gulf and we will probly not see the 2-3 storms form that it shows but it is more likley showing us td 20 . thats my take so right now my prelimnary track is across the yucatan and a 2-3 days stall and than towards the gulf coast. she might miopve onshore in mxico but i doubt she will. i think she will sin over the warm bay and blow up like opal. thats my prediction right now. we will see what happens
98. dcw
People! Get the Football out of the comments section. If it is tropical, but not what Masters was talking about, put it on my site and keep his clear!

Link
yeah. origin simlar to opal, track similar to roaxane. good pick up. here is the link to the storm data on roxane

Link
dcw let it go man


go redskins go vt hokie.
The GFS is now suggesting that a storm will come up the east coast in two weeks, although it seems unlikely since SST's north of Norfolk are lower than 80
Dcw, we haven't had any problems here, and, if people want to ask questions for Dr. Masters, TheDiscussionBlog was set up for that.
Ahh Roxanne forgot about that one....I like that leftyy always has those ready so I dont have to search for them..thanks...Oh and dcw..GO RUTGERS!!!
theres the gulf stream and warm waters near there that could support cat1 or cat 2. so not that cold till u get past ther delmarva peninsula

yeah wg. i am the reaserch guy lol
rember 26c is the point of no cyclone. the 26 isotherm is pretty far north still. so not as cold as u would think
It should also be pointed out that a storm moving faster will move a greater distance while weakening at the same rate as a slow moving storm, thus increasing the threat to the NE.
I wouldn't worry lefty(y)....the SST's in the Gulf can barely support a tropical storm at this point. Anything that spins up there will stay very weak.
cosmic ur dead wrong lol
Historicaly October is the most likely time of the year that South Florida is threaten by tropical systems either from the Atlantic or from the Carribean. The steering currents in the upper atmosphere usually take the Carribean storms more northerly direction and then bends them to the northeast threatening the west coast of Florida or SE Florida and the Keys. Irene in 1999 came up from the Carribean thru Cuba and surprised South Florida with 80 mph winds and heavy rains simlar to Kratina in August.
lol..thers pently of sher in da gluf so antthing that sipns up their will be tron to bitz..lol
cosmic look at the shear forcast for the next 3-5 days./ the gulf will be near perfect conditions. but hey thats ur opinion
ur shownig ur age leftyy.....we all hvae owr opnion...lol...but if you nu abut history youd now xcept for miss opal this is not teh tim for sotrms to from the gluf...lol...live nd lern..lol
Hiya from Nassau, The Bahamas :)

Came back from Eleuthera island on an assignment yesterday and saw some freaky weather/ cloud formations from TD-20. We had to fly around the entire island where Nassau is the capital because, in our shortest flight path, was a huge cell that had two funnel clouds and one waterspout in it :(
We even saw a small yacht trying to outrun it and they were packing some speed! It was like a curtain of rain around it, as it passed over the waters to the south of us.
Freaky sight while in a small plane :(
Ah well ... :)
cosmic this is the time storms form in the gulf. u don;t know ur history
120. SMU88
It seems that only Matilda responded to me about the chances of a hurricane hitting South Florida for the rest of the yeat. even thought Lefty might have something to say but nothing? Thank you Matilda.
Whats the point in the links DCW?
thats cause its a gueesy qyestion. the chances are the same as any other place that is affected by tropical systems. nobody knows. the us may not be affected by another system for another year. so its not like u asked us a question any of us could actually answer with any knowledge. only god knows
SUU88 I've lived here in South Florida for 20 years been know my South Florida weather very well. Hopefully we won't have any more hurricane situations but we can't let our guard down until we see our nearby ocean temps fall below 80 F. which proabaly won't happen until sometime in November.
so when could we see TD 21 and TD 22
dcw hey man i cant even get around your site k its like more difficult then this realy man
SMU.....some of us know...to antzer ur question wen you taak into acunt the ssts and the sher the chances ar 9 percent..lol...im not predicking a cat 4...lol...but seteerng crunts wil be wek...lol
http://www.weather.com/maps/activity/garden/monthlyrainfallestimate_large.html
129. SMU88
I understand all that, I just wanted to know what you all thought about it. After all there are some on here who like making guesses on tropical or potential systems.
With the high heat content in the NW Caribbean I think that the possibility of a hurricane forming in the Caribbean and moving to south FL is quite likely at some point before the season ends.
Here is a question--I can see how satellites can scan the ocean surface and determine its temperature--but how do they know what the water temp is 30 meters down, or 50 meters down, or 100 meters down?
[chart]http://img201.imageshack.us/my.php?image=spectrop10720x4862us.jpg[/chart]
[chart]img201.imageshack.us/my.php?image=spectrop10720x4862us.jpg[/chart]
Especially since Rita, I have wondered how reliable the estimates of oceanic heat content are, and whether the heat content reports for the Loop Current were wrong.
Cuban Radar of TD20, looking a little better defined.
Radar link

Link
so oh do you think that will be the S storm frist i think that TD 19 will be the T storm and TD 19 will be the S storm or TD 20 will be the T storm frist and TD 19 will be the S storm or what if the 2 storm to TS at the same time we can not have to S storm or to T storm can we
What?
I think TD20 will be the "S" storm, and TD19 will fizzle, although convection has refired in the past 2hrs.
i think it will be coool if we got to W this year i think that we had nevere had a hurricane with a W befor and i think that will be the frist time that we got to W
lol u have to ask?
Lefty, you and your hokies. The town is quiet with no couch fires....
lol sorry man. this is our year lol. we won;t play wv again for atleast 10 years. thats rough.
TD 19 you are not looking to good right now and TD 20 you are looking good bu TD 19 why will you get your winds up to 40 mph so way we can call you the S storm or the T storm so TD 19 start look right ok then may be i will take you out some time ah ah ah LOL
145. Manny
StSimon,

They use formulas that take into account the relationship of the isotherm layer, surface height, and surface tempature.

You can read about it here and here.
Lefty, there's a chance we could see each other in the Gator bowl, although not likely. We played Maryland twice in '04.
Sometimes I feel like I need a translator for this blog and not for the tropical discussions but for the english.
148. Manny
Jupiter, I feel your pain on that one.
Thanks for the info Manny, looking through those links now :)
what are the chances of TD 20 hooking back to the west coast of FL? say Tampa
151. mobal
Hi all
As of 11pm TD 19 and 20 have not been upgraded according to the NHC
153. mobal
have to say it, Roll Tide.
That won't happen because a big high which will allow a couple of waves and lows to move across florida from the atlantic will keep it wet,BUT there are some indications that one of those systems will stall to our west and become a tropical cyclone,(our being tampa because I live near clearwater)But because it is many days away don't worry at all yet lol.
I wonder why,the system has become more defined,looks more like a weak t.s. now I think that they haven't sent a recon yet because by radar and sattelite the center is a bit further east then where they have it right now.
The NHC better get some Ambien, they've fallen asleep on another storm.
recon be there in an hr.
guys, i seenothing showing she is a td and recon is enroute. thats why they maintained the intenosty to what it is. in an hour we will know for sure
sorry meant ts
Hey Lefty, Blobby Jr. has consolidated his convection, I think that's a sign of strengthening, and he wasn't far away from being a storm at last recon, just read Steve Gregory's blog entry.
MOBAL JUST GOT TO SAY IT WAR EAGLLLLLLLLE looks like the west might come down to the iron bowl. another sc win looking for sc and who knows for bcs sc does have to get by notre dame quinn another future 1 draft pick pure passer td 20looks like it still the same.
now she looks better on microwave data, so probly is a weak ts, but the convection is still not as orginised as it could be

torn, thats why they are waiting for recon cause it will be there in 30mins to an hr. wouldn;t u wait if u have not much more info than befor. now if there was no recon for 12hrs i am sure they would upgrade her but recon is enroute so we will know for sure when it gets there
It is another large tropical cyclone big band well north of the center and another one well inland
this also why they did it. her t-numbers have not increased any

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY REMAINS BROAD THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN A
POORLY CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
lol this is so funny. check this out torn

THE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO FIND IN INFRARED IMAGERY...SO THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/5. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND EVENING RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS LOW/MID/LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION...WHICH IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER 24-36 HR...A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF FORECASTS OF
HOW THE PATTERN AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL EVOLVE. SOME MODELS
STALL THE DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE OTHERS MOVE
IT INTO MEXICO. OTHERS DISSIPATE IT AS A NEW SYSTEM FORMS EAST OF
THE DEPRESSION IN THE CARIBBEAN...OR NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION
ALONG A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF
MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO... ALBEIT AT A
SLOWER SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN IS DECREASING.
k guys wife is home. be back when recon gets to her.
It would seem that clydefrog is still trying to figure how to get his foot out of his mouth -- because THNKFULLY it seems he has not been able to open it since last night!!
"k guys wife is home. be back when recon gets to her."
Lefty, there sending recon to your wife??
lol yeah sub, she apeears to have a low level cirulation on visible satelite lol
LMAO! Excellent!
yeah sub. she thought that was really funny.
I understand, Lefty. But boy, that talk about the confidence in their forecast shot chills down my spine...
This screams Opal ALL OVER IT.
TD 20 will end up being a FL west coast storm!
hurricanewayne HOW DO YOU NO THAT ONE
yeah torn. thats what i was saying all day. none of the global models actually have her making a second landfall in mexico thru 120 hrs and the gfs sends those 2-3 systems into fl, mostlikley they are td 20 and in the next few runs we will see that more clearly. what i am also looking at is the gfs had the wave comming off of africa right now moving acrross the atlantic and blowing up near the bahhams and hitting nc/va. that would be something and a storm i might chase
the cold front will eventually pull it north east then east north-east. u watch
recon is almost there. 24n and 87 west so they are almost there. time to eat be back in a few
wayne thats what me and torn have been talking about all day.
wayne opal wasnt only major landfall oct storm look at underground archive for hilda 1964 and that track you talk about community storm and the cape verde eason is about to come to end its anw carrib and gulf finally, also stormtop said weeks back the dry air was a blessing weaken the waves in east atl well i have a differnt take if the dry air would not have been there they would have formed much further east and likely had recurved but being weaker they moved much further west and bingo they were on the us doorstep just a thought.
182. dcw
Yeah, this is definetly showing Opal vibes..not good. If Stan/Tammy develop (likely), we'll have tied the insane season of 95, which first intrested me in hurricanes. Its been a wild 10 years in hurricane history, and I would actually predict more to come. Since it has taken some time for the activity this season to "ramp up" (last two years have been progressively more active), it should, loigcally, take time to cool down. So next year=more insane than this, like this, or like last year.

If this keeps up next year, I'm outta the tropics.
Folks, put this in the record so you can either marvel at me or laugh at me later:

Landfall: somewhere between Apalachicola and Tampa Bay

Winds: 115-135 MPH

Pressure: 930-945 MB (it will be a large hurricane)

Next landfall: Outer Banks (I'm a GFS follower)

Winds: 90-110 MPH

Pressure: 960-975 MB
man the tropics are smokin.....I bet we see a depression possibly a TS in early December........
But this season has had to category 5's almost 3,the third strongest hurricane on record,rita a gust to 238 was recorded by a drop sonde!Of course katrina the 4th strongest on record,we have had 9 hurricanes and 5 majors which is more than 1995.This has been one heck of a season and if this soon hapens again over the next few years,the whole global warming theory may be more accurate then I thought.
and i have asked repeatedly why this was going to mex with such astrong trough for 3 days now weatherguy was the only one to really adreess it now all i hear is the opal talk lol. the motto for this i ifs and buts candies and nuts if the queen had a different anatomy she would be king.
187. dcw
If it were going to happen, this would be the year, Wayne. It's possible at least.

I cite Hurricane Lenny. Formed in November in the western Caribbean in '99, moved east across the Caribbean, and hit the Virgin Islands as a cat 4. WEIRD storm.
: tornadoty so what are you saying is it is not going to make landfall where the TD 20 is now?
torn i agree with you about the first landfall but i think the 2nd one will be iffy because it will be fighting the cold front and most likely losing tropical characteristics and form a crazy hybrid noreasterish type storm that rakes the east coast but then again i may be the one getting laughed at
Two years ago, I had Odette on my birthday (12/06). I would like another tropical birthday present this year, hopefully away from land like Peter, which formed three days after my birthday in '03.
88888,
I meant after it enters the Bay of Campeche. Sorry for the confusion!
TD20 is definitely becoming better organized. Over the last several hours the convection has really been increasing near the center and the outflow to the west and north has improved significantly. It has a great chance to become Stan before reaching the Yucatan coast.
tornnoty you dont think if it came northeast the dry air from such astrong trough would not limit it. ne gulf is notorious for huuricanes weakening at landfall earl 98 opal 95 ivan 2004 dennis 2005, all these storms weakened plus katrina and rita updwellings could come into affect the warm temps are shallow now not as deep to sustain would not rule out ajuan 80 85mph range.
Ok that was stupid enough with this shera is queen garbage,eather y'all are joking or you are I DONT KNOW WHAT....Ok now,don't go jumping on this opal hing yet,for one I have noticed esspecially here that incresing rain chances above normal next week in florida,and very deep moisture suggests that the tropics are haning in strong and the tropical airmasses are taking control of florida now(yay)so this trough may wash out from the strong bermuda high so you cannot be so sure about this opal thing.Not saying it can't happen but being the way the pattern has been it doesn't look to me this will happen.
: tornadoty that ok so will FL have a cat 4 at landfall and will it be the S storm or the T storm for FL?
I'm thinking if more towards Tampa Bay, then 135 MPH. If more towards Apalachicola, then 115 MPH. I agree that it will be hindered IF IT GETS FAR ENOUGH NORTH.

Side note: No hurricane has ever hit the FL Panhandle above Cat. 3 intensity. The cloest was probably Dennis, which dropped below Cat. 4 only 30-45 min. before landfall.
If it strikes, it will be the 'S' storm (Stan).
peace jedkins queen is a very nice lady she ha been very kind to me and my wife during the katrina situation and my wifes cancer fight her emails have been uplifting while some others even in our situation and been very cold and rude but thats ok hopefully they want have to deal with it themselves sorry for the sharp reply but i thank highly of queen and i agree with you the opal take is a little grabbag hawk you are sharp with these like weatherguy whats your take
Ya most of florida is nororious for rapidly intensifying storms before landfall that catch folks by surprise,charley,andrew,katrina....Cant think of any others but there are quite a few,most areas storms max out before they make landfall and are a bit weaker when they finally do.That is what makes florida hurricanes so dangerous,not only do they make landfall mre but several times rapid deepening has occured fairly shortly before landfall.In fact both andrew,katrina and charley strengthened a bit more shortly after making landfall.Also when storms undergo rapid deepening they weaken slower over land because of the rapid intensification allows storms to hold together longer.
SAINT-
The last GFS I saw had TD 20 or another cyclone from the remnants of TD 20 becoming a very very large cyclone and striking I think around Citrus County, FL (kind of hard to tell exactly).
In my humble opinion, TD20 will achieve TS status and move wnw across the Yucatan, and then move out into sw gulf and then stall. This TS will then meander for two to three days in the Bay of Campeche until an approaching front picks up what will by then be a cat 1 hurricane, and sends the system in a general ne motion towards the Fl panhandle as a cat 1 hurricane due to wind shear. That's how I see it for now.
Ok but I shouldn't say that was stupid but do not worship anyone or anything other than God,sorry I was a bit rude.
Feels like somethings gonna hit fl. That east sustanded breeze is back, lots o low clouds flyin from the east, air's hot at night & occational heavy down pours since this morning.
got you tornodty maybe it will be ahybrid like juan in 85 came out of bay of camp, major maybe but cant see it at landfall, just ahunch
206. dcw
Tornado...Orange county is in the middle of the state :D
No,Ivan was the strongest,technically it made landfall in alabama but the worst of the storm was over florida including the eastern eyewall,slightly more of the eye made landfall in alabama.BAut the worst was in the panhandle,so that being 130 surpasses dennis that I might add.
dos any one have a Computer Models so that i can see what you are all takeing about for TD20 thank you
jedkins amen i agree but watch mentioning GOD some on here get offended or ignore your invite for prayer they rake me over the coals glad to know thier is other among us god bless
Has the plane arrived?
almost there. 22n 86w
89999~ Link
get real i wont argue with you you and weatherguy hit rita head on when nhc and others had it going to corp crist until the last, cat 1 sounds about the max more of a hybrid im guessing.
Dcw, Citrus County (that's the actual name of the county) is on the NW peninsula coast.

Also to Jedkins, according to the NHC, Ivan had winds of 120 MPH and a pressure of 946 MB. If the 942 MB pressure of Dennis holds up, it would tie Opal's intensity, and exceed her winds. Even though the winds in Dennis may have been up to 5 MPH less than Ivan's, it's the pressure that counts and would tie Dennis for the record as the strongest hurricane ever to strike the FL Panhandle.
That is not only why conditions always seem to be more favorable as hurricanes make landfall in florida,and less favorable in other areas,another is waters just below the surface are cooler in most places.
By the way God blee sainthurrifan!!!
But Ivan did more damage,A larger area of stronger winds,dennis was not very strong.
jed, its more that dennise was alot smaller than ivan and ivan had a biiger surge and alot of the damage was surge
Pressure is all that counts, Jedkins. The winds are too variable of a factor when ranking the intensity of hurricanes. For example, at Rita's peak, her winds were 175 MPH, and her pressure was 897 MB. In 1980, Hurricane Allen had winds of 190 MPH, but a pressure of 899 MB. Rita will go down as the stronger of the two, though, because we rank hurricane intensity by pressure.
I was here for both Ivan and Dennis and we may have got 2 hours of hurricane force winds with Dennis. Ivan had much higher winds for much longer. Dennis does not hold a candle compared to Ivan.
This Vortex Message had better come soon because I do not like the path down which this discussion is heading.
tornodty dennis had a much smaller core of strong winds thanivan though pressure sometimes is misleading a weaker storm with alarge core of strong winds can be worse and do far wide spread damage ala isabell a 2 with alarge windfield katrina weaker than camille but more destrutive much larger circulation anyway goodnight to you jedkins getreal and the rest and GOD BLESS
Good night SAINT.
And God bless the Saints tomorrow.
FLP, I'm talking straight intensity, not destructiveness, which, like wind speeds, has many variables.
Well,technology was not as good then and I dought it peaked at 190,also I think that the NHC was being conservative by keeping intensity at 175 mph,I mean a drop sonde reported a gust to 238 mph!I mean siriously.
Good night folks. Got to get some sleep. Will be busy tomorrow. I will check in as often as possible.
Torn,

I agree there ere many variables that go into the makeup of a storm, some that we probably don't even know about yet. I am speaking solely from personal experience. Ivan was a M-80 and Dennis was a dud. I was also here for Opal.
New GFS is similar to the older runs, taking TD20 into the Bay of Campeche and slowing it down. Some in here have been thinking of the Opal scenario, but there is an important thing to note about the GFS. Once it takes TD20 into the BOC it predicts strong northerly shear to pretty much tear it apart and just keeps a large area of lower pressure from the Yucatan to the sw Atlantic. On top of the possible northerly shear across the sw Gulf, the GFS then shows strong westerly shear moving southward into the entire Gulf thanks to the big trough over the US after day 5.
Yes but we had tropical storm strength winds here with gusts over 60 in a couple strong outer bands.But thos winds we had occured also ouside the bands so dennis ha a huge tropical storm force wind field,but just a small hurricane wind field.
dcw - Actually, the highest point in Florida is Britton Hill, Lakewood Park in Walton County and is only 345 feet above sea level. Walton County is located in the Florida Panhandle.

However your statement holds true for much of the peninsula. The "spine" of Florida extends down through Gainesville towards Lakeland, ending near Sebring. The spine actually is at slightly higher elevation and is noticeable for it's small low hills, as well as many lakes caused by huge sinkholes.

East of the spine, the elevation is very flat, as you point out. In Brevard county, as in many of the central and southern east coastal counties, the highest points are the county dumps! On the barrier island I am at 1 meter above sea level. Up near Titusville on the mainland there are some ice-age era dunes that may be up to 40 ft high at most, but further inland the St John's river basin is extremely low with hardly any slope at all, from the "headwaters" near Lake Washington all the way to north to Jacksonville.

It is even worse in most of southern Florida where excepting for the dumps, built-up areas of development and the levees most of the land is essentially a shallow inland sea (the everglades and mangrove swamps) flowing even more slowly than the St. John's River.
Good night Torn. I also do not like the similarities between 20 and Opal.
Look I think rita was stronger in windspeed then allen also,we can only guess what the winds really where many years ago in hurricanes like cammile.
I agree with you Jedkins, the NHC was also very conservative with the reported wind speeds of Katrina at landfall. There was a confirmed sustained wind of 176 mph with a gust to 192 mph at the Slidell municipal airport. The pressure of Katrina at landfall was consistant with that of a Cat 5 hurricane. Just because the Hurricane Hunter can't find a certain wind velocity consistant with a certain pressure, doesn't mean that the higher sustained wind speed isn't out there!!!
Hi
Don't even try it Righty.
Good night. The kooks are starting to appear.
238. dcw
Woops, sorry, misread the county post *embarassment*

I agree, GetReal, the NHC has been very overconservative this year.
guygee you've descibed my stompin grounds, where are you?
000
WTNT45 KNHC 020247
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY REMAINS BROAD THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN A
POORLY CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO FIND IN INFRARED IMAGERY...SO THE
INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/5. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND EVENING RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS LOW/MID/LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION...WHICH IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER 24-36 HR...A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF FORECASTS OF
HOW THE PATTERN AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL EVOLVE. SOME MODELS
STALL THE DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE OTHERS MOVE
IT INTO MEXICO. OTHERS DISSIPATE IT AS A NEW SYSTEM FORMS EAST OF
THE DEPRESSION IN THE CARIBBEAN...OR NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION
ALONG A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF
MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO... ALBEIT AT A
SLOWER SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL HAPPEN IS DECREASING.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR WHILE
THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATER...AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON YUCATAN...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. EVEN WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHIPS CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFDL RUN DOES NOT
STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE ABOVE 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES
THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AFTER
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 84 HR. SHOULD THAT LANDFALL NOT OCCUR OR BE
DELAYED...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 19.3N 87.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 19.7N 88.2W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/0000Z 20.3N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.8N 92.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 96.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 98.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED





hey where is the Vortex Message
here's the bouy's message Link
GetReal - It would be hard to discern whether these reported windspeeds were from straight-line winds or small tornados (I do not believe tornadic winds "count" towards Saffir-Simpson classification). Then again, windspeed measurement spatial distribution is so sparse I do not think we can ever know for sure, so I am inclined to agree that both Rita and Katrina may have been stronger than the sparse measurements indicated.

Although I think this article may be a little too "alarmist", here is a link to an article speculating that damage to offshore oil facilities from Rita may have been much greater than thus far reported:

Link
Hi Again Skyepony, I am in Satellite Beach. I'm the one "holdin' the fort" for you on the mainland ;-).
if no one is going to give me the new Vortex Message then i will say good night but frist i would like to see the new Vortex Message
Awe yeah, you got my back on the barrier island. The weather has turned quite tropical on us today. hope all's well, i've gave up the the plane & off to sleep
Definitely curious and waiting for the new Vortex Message...
Guygee I have several friends employed in the offshore oilfield service industry. They have confirmed for me that the reports in that article are indeed acurate!!!
man gfs out to lunch on td 20 still, but it has a massive cane in the carribean and waiting for the next frames but this one looks to be a east coast monster. really interesting
i will give the new Vortex Message tell 10:15pm to come out if it dos not come then i will say good night
GetReal - If that is the case I feel real sorry for the folks in the northeast. I spent the late '80's-early '90's in central New Hampshire (experienced the Great Storm of '93 up there, then moved to Florida). People are going to be hurting just to heat their houses up there, and this is going to ripple throughout the economy. We have to hope for a mild winter!
Hey guygee time to buy heating oil futures!!!
Hey leftty what's the latest with gfs on that east coast monster to be????
well it only gets to the bahhamas byu time the gfs ends but in the last runs it moves up the east coast and the sterring appears to be the same . we will have to see what some of the other models show if they go out far enouhg. must note its 12 days away. so maybe not even going to form. u got to see the new canadian though its nuts. i won't tell u what to look for i want u to tell me lol

Link
255. cjnew
is it that "The day after tomorrow" storm?
lol the gfs forms a storm as well. guess what it forms from? the ull that we were talking about yesterday lol. if u look at the ull on ir inagery now it no longer appears to be an ull and i belive it is transitioning into a warm care system
check it out. the ull was located at 22n and 65w.

Link
CMC indicates that a weakness will form over the Bahamas and develops the HURRICANE THAT ATE FLORIDA over the east Gulf of Mexico!!!
Good morning Lefty....so what am I hearing about this monster storm?
Wow, glad I checked in. Now I'm gonna go check out latest GFS.

Lefty, is the GFS you're watching from the FSU site?
and that is what the nhc is talking about here. man i wish that guy from last night was still here. like i said dr.masters does not know everything. he is human like all of us

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
525 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
that is from the ull u guys lol. its becomming warm caore as we speak. i use the gfs from the noaa site. here is the link

Link
now whats preventing it from forming right now is the ull gto its north just east of ga. that ull is suppose to move away and boom, a cyclone will form. it appears it enters the gulf but when u look closer it actually never crosses florida just some of it does and it moves north into the carolinas. very very interesting. we will have to see what the other models say and what they say with tommorows runs
Lefty - New canadian seems to show surface ciruclation of TD20 rapidly heading across Yucatan into Mexico, then may be a piece of TD 20 (amybe upper high(?)left behind (?) getting up into the Eastern Gulf, stalling a bit north of Key West, then hugely bombing out up the East Coast. Is that bomb even a pure tropical system, or a hybrid? Pretty scary, but not totally implausible.
It is most certian some of use will be hurting this winter.
And as far as the gas ventures you should of bought your stocks long ago. The Gov controls it. And there are other ports to unload the gas. And we have reserves. But it is ashame some ppl will have to pick between eating and keeping warm.
OK, I can buy into that alternate intepreation, the ULL is gaining moisture and looks like it is getting a surface reflection, it is also pretty vigorous, so we will have to watch out for it crossing the peninsula and gaining convection near the center.
guygee, thats not from td 20, thats the ull low . u have to look at other levels of the models to see where the enrgy comes from. here is what i use sometimes. now it will be easier to see what will happen in the next day or 2 but u can clearly see the storm is generated from the disturbance at 21n65w which was an ull yesterday but has started to transition into a warm core system today. the shear bis from a secon ull to its north that is suppose to be kicked away by the front that just passed and is stalled off the coast right now

Link
wow lefty ...that is some storm if it does develop and I am pretty much in its path
I hate to bring this up leftyy, but the ull we're speaking of right now is moving along now at a pretty steady clip towards the west. I'm inclined to believe that the models maybe turning this system to the north much to quickly. It may possibly get further west before turning north and threatening Mobile to Apalachicola areas. I will be interested to see when and if this develops, and some later model runs.
yeah buff. i ammore on the fact its fromthe ull, something i noted as a possibilty yesterday despite that guy complianing that dr.masters says it couldn;t happen lol. and than he said it was colder than other ull so it caould not become warm core lol. the things he said had me rolling on the floor
getreal, the models have it moving along west, therss going to be a trough that will turn it north and east. but like i said i am more looking at the fact that its the ull i noted yesterday
yeah that was a good pick up on your part. There have been numerous instances of ull becoming tropical in sept and oct.
These models are throwing all sorts of scenarios at us, so it's hard to say what's going to happen. However, all of the models are screaming loud and clear that we're going to see some very nice conditions in the near future for TC development.

I think it's obvious that the GFS monster is a vape verde wave that will be in development for quite some time.

What I'm wondering is what that is coming down from the north on the last frame of the GFS? Looks to be another high like the ones that preceded it. If that were to happen when that storm is in that position, then it is definitely a landfall storm.
Anything on new vortex message? I'm about to go to bed.
Lefty - I see what you mean. The second link makes it clearer, you are right. WV loops show the ULL at 21N65W already is developing a good amount of convection around the center (pre-eclipse) so if the ULL currently off of the Georgia coast kicks out NE and TD20 heads west, some version of this scenario is feasible. (but I certainly hope not as strong as shown, another potential disaster!!). I will be paying much closer attention to the tropics for the next few days!
dunno, vortex might come out after the 2am adv. here is the latest ir image as of 100am

yeah guy i doubt we will see a storm so strong specillay with land interaction but we could see a possible cat1-cat3 hit florida in my opinion
based on obs the winds are between 35-40 mph at the surface and i don;t know if they will upgrade her. but i think they might
taking the 2am advisory forever. they might be upgrading her
yeah they kept her a td but they said is is close to ts strength. if she wasn;t soclose top landfall they wouldmake her a ts for sure.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...19.5 N... 87.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
good night everyone
I thought the stupid recon plane was out there two hours ago. I wonder what is taking them so long to get a center fix. The NHC even had to send out the 2am EDT advisory with the estimates.
Wife just asked, "You staying up all night again??" Thanks all! Will check back in tomorrow.
dunno hawke. they have flown thru the center twice already.still no vortex. i think they are trying to determine the exact location of the center as developing systems could have 2 or more votices and its hard to die down the dominant cenetr. but who knows
good night guys
Wow, I'm impressed with TD20's spiral banding. That's the most obvious his circulation has been since we first saw him enter the Caribbean.

I was just thinking, imagine how much moisture this system has brought into the Caribbean air. Most of the tropical Atlantic is also full of moist air. Another HUGE wave is about to leave Africa. I'll say it again: Things are getting ripe!
are you shure its not you will put the pits down man lol
Okay, I'm off to bed as well. See ya tomm.
NHC upgraded TD 20 to Tropical Storm Stan
TROPICAL STORM STAN FORMS JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

AT ABOUT 120 AM CDT... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY HAD INCREASED TO 45 MPH. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STAN... THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. STAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.

Hey lefty
what up yall
chillin...
Man that GFS has been out to lunch all week, showing cyclones forming all over the place except for there are actually cyclones, ie. Stan, TD19.
Man that GFS has been out to lunch all week, showing cyclones forming all over the place except for where there are actually cyclones, ie. Stan, TD19.
buenas noches
297. IKE
Good morning cyberspace!!!!!

Seems like the latest GFS 06Z is latching on to what the NAM has been advertising...something crossing Florida...entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then getting drawn NE with the end of week approaching cold front. Could it be Tammy?
If we are to believe the latest satellite imagery, Stan is now moving north of its projected path, while dropping off a part of itself which wanders towards the Bay of Campeche. Will Stan consequently spend sinificantly shorter time over dry land than previously predicted, and shoot off N/NE? Input on this possible development would be highly appreciated.
299. IKE
Not sure olefosse. Latest satellite frame has a glitch in in it so I can't tell.

It appears something is going to get drawn NE-ward later this week that will be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I think it's what is east of Florida now and moving west because of strong high pressure to the north.
300. IKE
It also looks like with this cold front coming down the end of this week...the hurricane season in the northern Gulf will be about over with.
Hiya from Nassau, The Bahamas :)
This morning, around 6:20, we had sustained winds over 20 mph with some good gusts from "Stan." It all woke my toddler up :(
Ironically, with the possible system coming this way by Tuesday, my wife is nagging me about the plywood shuttering I have up over our "safe" rooms and wants them down. Go figure ... :)
302. IKE
How are you getting any effects from Stan...in the bahamas? Pressure gradient? You sure it isn't from another system that might be developing?

Tell your wife to be patient!!! Hurricane season isn't over quite yet. Give it til the end of October!??!?!?
we are getting some of the moisture associated with it ... extends into even parts of southernmost FL. winds from the s-se matching the direction it is travelling in, too :)
my wife would knock me in the head with the bathrrom window shuttering if I told her that IKE ;-)
its till the end of november
305. IKE
mybahamas...I see what you're talking about(on satellite), as far as where your weather is coming from.

Maybe a gentle conversation with your wife! She'll understand...I hope!

Found this interesting on the 8:05am EDST tropical discussion..."a slug of
moisture in the se Bahamas will likely keep S Florida very
unstable and fairly wet. The GFS forecasts another chunk of
moisture to enter the state on Tue... with some slight
possibility of tropical genesis hinted to in the model fields.
Model consensus is for a large low to form in the E Gulf by
mid-week ahead of a cold front and regardless of development..
keep the E Gulf very wet."...

That's what the NAM and the GFS are picking up on. Maybe Tammy? MY WIFE'S NAME! Oh my GOD!
306. IKE
I know it's til the end of November for the hurricane season. I should have said the end of October basically along the northern Gulf coast. True that the Bahamas can have a November storm.
Michelle, two years ago, passed through here around November 4 or 6, IKE
Gulf hurricanes have happened as late as December 20 (see LiLi)
The two areas of convection to the east of Bahamas continue to grow and fester. I predict that the NHC on the 11:30 am Tropical Outlook will suggest possible tropical development of the system over the next few days as the system moves slowly westward. I've been tracking the upper level low for about a week as it has traversed the Atlantic on a steady west-southwest movement. The Florida and Southeast coastline should moniter the situation as that has been the favored area of development for August and September
310. dcw
Yeah, the Gulf stays warm almost year-round, Hurricane Season ends more because of a lack of waves than cold SSTs. Temps in the gulf rarely go below 65 at any point in the year.

Check out the latest Microwave image on the ull at 22N 64W.
311. IKE
Looks like what's east of the bahamas will cross Florida into the eastern gulf...then get pulled NNE with an approaching cold front. Will it be a TS..Tammy...possibly.

Stan will head west across the yucatan and over toward Mexico.

But for the southeast it's what is moving west toward Florida. Could get interesting.
Judging from the morning satelite pics the most interesting area appears to be at 69w 22n it is sandwiched between to upper lows. One is to the NW and the other appears to be to the SE and it may be creating a favorable upper level enviroment. Is there a hint of an anti cyclone above it?
313. IKE
There does seem to be something around 70W, 23-24N...and it does seem to be organized.
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