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TD 20 finally makes up its mind

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:13 PM GMT on October 01, 2005

Tropical Depression 20
The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea continues with its daily cycle of ups and downs, and finally hit enough of an "up" today to be classified as Tropical Depression 20. The amount of deep convection has increased to the highest level that we've seen yet, and now covers most of the western Caribbean Sea. An upper level outflow channel has opened to the north, and one can see high cirrus clouds streaming out to the north from the center of the depression. A few spiral bands have formed, and surface pressures continue to fall. The center of the depression is near buoy 42056 about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to investigate the system at 2 pm EDT afternoon.

The system is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula today and Sunday, so probably will not have time to strengthen into a tropical storm before then. Wind shear over the system is unchanged at 5 - 10 knots today, but after crossing the Yucatan, the shear is forecast to drop below 5 knots, and the system will have 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf. I expect landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, or perhaps a strong tropical storm, on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday.

Hurricane Otis threatening Baja and Arizona
Hurricane Otis reached its peak intensity early this morning--a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph. Otis is expected to very slowly creep northwestward over cooler waters the next two days, and gradually weaken. By the time it takes a more northerly track and crosses the Baja Peninsula on Monday, Otis will probably be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outwards only 15 miles from Otis's center, so only a small portion of the coast will receive wind damage. Heavy rains of five inches or more will be the main problems with Otis, potentially triggering serious flash flooding in the desert mountains of Mexico--and by Tuesday, in Arizona.


Figure 2. Hurricane Otis.

TD 19
Tropical Depression 19 is far out over the Atlantic Ocean, about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. The environment for strengthening is fair, and we will probably see this system become a tropical storm tonight. A hurricane seems unlikely, as this system is expected to move northwest or northward for the next five days into a region of increasing wind shear. It will be interesting to see if this storm or TD 20 wins the race to become Stan--loser gets the name Tammy.

Southeast U.S.
The global computer models are no longer forecasting tropical storm development near the Bahama Islands on Monday or Tuesday. Instead, they indicate that the favored genesis region may be the central or western Caribbean.

Hawaii
Flood watches are posted for all of the Hawaiian Islands as the moisture from Tropical Depression Kenneth moves over today. As yet, no heavy rains have impacted the islands.

Taiwan and China
Typhoon Langwang, a small but intense typhoon with 140 mph sustained winds, is headed towards a landfall on Taiwan Sunday. The upper-level outflow from the typhoon has degraded today, but there is no apparent wind shear affecting it, so landfall as a Category 3 or 4 storm is likely. Longwang is expected to weaken to a Category 1 storm after passage over the 10000 foot high mountains of Taiwan and continue on to strike mainland China on Monday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I believe TD 19 will make a more westerly turn later on in the week.

Tropical Storm tonight.
(transferred from last blog installment)
The low in the vicinity of 19N 86W (now TD 20) looks like
it is bound to drift across the Yucatan, maybe ending up
in the Bay of Campeche. Climatologically, it is getting
near that time of year when it is not that unusual for systems to linger in the Bay of Campeche, sometimes
dieing there from upwelling, like 1995 Roxanne:

Link

Conditions seem at least somewhat similar, although if the current trough approaching the western Gulf passes over TD 20 or just partially grabs the cyclone and is then replaced by a high, Mexico or Southeast Texas could be threatened. The waters in the Bay seem to be cooler on the west Yucatan coast, but get warmer towards the west.
We need for Mr. Possibly-Stan-to-Be TD20 to show some certain sign of a centre of circulation before much can be said with an acceptable degree of confidence about what track he will follow and thus how much land he must cross and where he might end up in the Gulf. I don't see this so far, though it might weel be that this centre shows itself quite a lot further north east than I believe the NHC think it might be.
I'm not at all convinced that 19.3N 85.8W (NHC estimate)is a good allocation of the system centre. 20.15N 85.0W seems just as likely.

Link
olefosse - Good point. If the center does form more NE then maybe that hefty upper low off the the SE coast eventually could have more of a steering influence.

I wonder how many tropical systems have managed to find their way up through the Yucatan Straits as compared to glancing off of Western Cuba or the Eastern Yucatan? A lot more than "random chance" would predict for N or NW moving tropical cylcones, I would imagine.
The global computer models are no longer forecasting tropical storm development near the Bahama Islands on Monday or Tuesday. Instead, they indicate that the favored genesis region may be the central or western Caribbean


Geez, not again! More info on this, please, though the thought of yet another week spent nervously tracking a Gulf system should make me bury my head in the sand at this point.
I was just looking at the models, and the fact that this storm is moving so slowly. Is it possible that the high pressure builds in over Mexico and Texas before this storm makes landfall and dissapates? If so wouldn't this storm be forced more northerly? I think this track guidance is currently unreliable. Anyone have any more info to add to that?
center is 19.2n 85.5w
This may sound like stupid question. But why are the eyes of Pacific storms usually so much larger and better defined than those in the Atlantic?

At least they appear to be on satellite pictures.
bam. its not so just u think it. now its a fact the waters are warmer so they tend to have stronger storms but theres no real difference.
bamasam - I think the Pacific has a much larger area of warmer waters, also more favorable condition wrt to shear on average than the Atlantic. The eyes are bigger becasue the storms are generally stronger and larger, having warmer waters and more time to mature away from significant land masses.
On TD 20, I think I can see multiple vortices, but currently they seem to be rotating around the general center near where Lefty pointed out. However, if some strong convection blows up to the north and east, it is probably not too late for another center to form and become dominant.
Based on WHAT info, leftyy420????
.... center info, that is, lefty .... ;)
sopme one mentioned it yesterday and i said it was erie. this has opal all over it. late in the 95 season one of the busiest and start of the new upswing. she formed into a depression right where td 20 did. she also hit florida as a cat 3. now the gfs has been forming a system near the bay of campeche and it hits florida. 3 runs now. it still does nopt notice the td 20 100 percent yet. i feel the gfs is seeing the blob blow up in the bay and move towards florida. her eis the link/ tell me what u think

Link
well that center is what is given by the navy, it also seems prettyclose based on limited microwave data and sat observation
Anyone have an opinion on what both the NOGAPS, and UKMET are showing in the western caribbean at around 130 hours?
well now its listed as 19.6n 85.5 and that looks a lil better to me. here is the microave pass.

Mornin', Lefty! I think TD 20 is close to storm strenghth, if not already there. What do you think?
i don't think so torn. specaily based on hor unorginised the center is on microwave data.

eerie ..

it's not only in Pennsylvania ! bwahaha

( thanks 420 for all the effort during Rita, man !)

recon is enroute so we should have alot of answers real soon
Once the recon gets there it will improve the models as well.
Hey Lefty, what do you think the odds are of TD 20 making an Opalesque path?
About the GFS link, Lefty.
Looks intrigueing.
But to be honest: Believing predictions 5-7 days out based on as unpredictable basic data as this system, TD20 is and has been all the time, is comparable to pure guesswork.
We might just as well believe predictions stating the spontaneous formation of a clockwise rotating tornado in Central Park on January 1.
As Steve Gregory put it well in his blog some time ago, though in slightly different words: Computer models are nice, but if you put garbage into a computer and central variables are uncertain or not known - guess what will come out of it...
torn its freaky man but the gfs forms a cyclone right where td 20 should be, in the last run it barley forms it into a depression than it disispates, and it rapidly intensifies and hits florida. to me that would suggest that td 20 will spin in the bay of campeche for 24 hrs than fly ene towards florida while gaining strength. similar to opal. now all out tracks are based on the 3 bamms as we have no gfs, gfdl, ukmet or nogapps solutions yet. the end game with td 20 is yet to be played so watch the models later tonight. this thing could get interesting
Lefty - It looks like that GFS link shows TD20 crossing the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche, stalling for a while, then making a run towards the Big Bend and up the East Coast. Interesting piece of the puzzle...I guess we will see if that pans out.
Hi I'm located in South central Louisiana and have been enjoying all your information through Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Now I have a question where do you all find the pictures that show all the computer model tracks that the storms can? Reading these blogs are very addicting. Katrina passed to the east of us and Rita passed to the west. Now I wonder if a strike 3 to Louisiana would be a bulls eye for us.
olefosse
i fgell ya, thats why i said it needs to be watched. the gfs has had a very good job of forming storms 5-7 days out. we saw it with nate, ophelia harvey, and a couple others. that was my point. i don;t think it will form a new storm i think that storm is td 20 as shown in the canadian model. i don;t think a simple track into mexico is what will happen. now thats my opinion. the track we have right now is based on 3 of our least reliable models so track is still and uncertainty
What site do you get your GFS link from? And does it have individual frames? I got a new computer about a month ago, and it doesn't have Java, so I can't loop anything.
marric ur best bet is to use the wu main tropical page. i use text and graphical model animations. heres a link to one of those pages

Link
torn. if u have iternet explorer u have jave. ui simply need to go to tools. internet options and enable java. but until u figure it out here is the site and if u selct the day and the type there is frames for each day. but i suggest u go to internet options and enable jave. u might have to restart afterwards. if u would like more help just say so and i can walk u thru enabling it

Link
leftty did you get my message?
yes sent u a reply
Thanks, Lefty. I'll use this site and have my friend (who built my computer and says I don't have Java) fix this little issue.

P.S. Not attacking you in this post. Just saying, I still have some issues with this I need to work out.
Is it just me, or does the GFS show 3 storms 10 days out? Also, is that storm off the coast of GA in the model a different storm?
naw man its cool. just go to tools ontop of the browser and go to internet options and go to advacned and look at the options and play around with it if u like. there should be an option on java and anything u change u can switch back. just a thought. but its on you mna. ur computer lol. that link should help u either way
torn thats the system i was saying would form near the bay of csampeche, most likely td 20, and move across the gulf and hit florida and move off the coast and hit the carolinas.
Lefty, pls link me to the GFS you're talking about. I do not see TD20 stalling in Campeche and then makking a beeline East to Fl. Must be looking at outdated model (?)
will here u go

Link
Hehe, just realized you had already linked it. Whoops...dont mind me...
Lefty.
OK. I definitely think stuff like that gfs run should be wilfully overlooked. Propably you are right in what you are saying, regarding TD20 being that storm.
What I think is really productive though, at this very moment, is trying to clarify three things: The system's center of rotation (if it exists), the inhibiting factors that exist and may develop within the upcoming 72 hours, and the favoring factors for the same period.
If computer models can assist us in solving the first issue, fine, but I highly doubt it is useful nor possible. Let's scrutinize all available buoy and satellite data to solve this.
Then, let us use models, by all means, but not stretch the horizon of prediction beyond 3 to 5 days at the most.
Thx lefty, as usual!

My first chance to look at the weather today, got a lotta catching up to do.

Looking at the models, and heck even the infrared...you'd have to be dumb to have state that the season is over.
Bad news Lefty. There is nothing on that menu concerning Java. Let's just leave it alnoe for now, and keep this blog for the weather talk. But thanks anyways, I really appreciate your help.
What about the other areas in the Atlantic? How we all feeling about them today. I see most of the models have dropped the E coast system, but we still have the ULL the wave/low, which looks to be well SE of the ULL-around 10, and the persistent blob off the Carolina coast? Any thoughts?
ole

we have recon enroute so all thos issue will be answered in an hr. next the conditions in 72-120 hours will be conducive for development, likley explosive specially in the bay of campeche, so we also must looks at the models for track durring that time. i am doing nothin different than i would with any other storm and if u do not want to look at the models don't. but its our best guess on what will happen and what i have noticed has been there for 3 runs now. i think its a good possibility the system will stall in the bay and than shoot towards florida. anywhere in the gulf is a threat from this system
its cool torn

hey sj.
sj dunno bout the ull right now. it doens't looka hy better and s i was sayiong yesterday is still a long shot. now the wave to the se of that still loks like it has for 3 days. i belive the gfs does form a cyclone but its track like td 19 should be a fish storm. but we will see
Two weeks out, GFS calling for an intense hurricane in the Atlantic. The location reminds me of Ivam...
ok guys. recon is close to the system and making there decent to flight level. most likley 1500 feet. we should have a vortex message in a few minutes
tornadoty, download the newest Java runtime environment? It's free, but must also say I am surprised you don't have it already.
Java Software Download

Sorry ya'll, I know you want to leave it be Tornadoty, but I can not imagine not having floaters and radars and models because you do not have Java. The above link will allow you to download Java.

Are you running Internet Explorer?
Damn Will, you stole my thunder.lol.
wow they are flying low. they are around 800fet right now. man they must be trying to get as good as a reading as possible lol
Yes, thank you VERY, VERY much SJ!
Wassup Lefty. I gotta get ready for my cousins wedding in about an hr, but had to check in.
Thanks Will too Torna. We were both posting it about the same time.lol.
lol look at the blig love lol. yea sj knew u stop in eventaully lol
Lefty, the area I was tlaking about SW of the ULL is the one around 10N. Looks like the ULL may force in to S. America. I don't see how that could be a fish storm though?
Hi,
I've been a lurker since Katrina. Have a stupid question-What does lol stand for. This blog is great by the way. I get a lot of wonderful info when the arguing stops.
u talking south of hipanola. if so thats just a huge area of converegnce du to td 20 and the ull. o tought u was refering to the system near the leeward islands
lol=laugh out loud
I think with developing systems it is useful to look at where the convection is, whether it is consolidating around a single surface circulation, and where the supporting upper high is centered. Right now, convection is consolidating somewhat around the estimated center, but there is still a vast area of convection to the north and east, with multiple vortices, and the estimated center is on the western edge of the supporting upper high. A tongue of moisture is being pulled up through the Yucatan Straits by a combination of an approaching trough and the SE Atlantic low. I think I would like to see what this evening brings in terms of the convection further consolidating or not, as well as the movement of the upper high, after all, if the center pulls out from underneath its upper support, good chance it will dissipate and a new center may form.
LOL (archaic) lots of love
ha ha SJ, sorry I'm just so fast!

Was flying today with a friend, buzzed the beaches at 500 feet to check out the girlies. 800 feet in that kind of weather is pretty ballsy if you dont mind me saying.

After watching the GFS scenario, are we sure that's the same system as TD20 that head to Florida? Looks like it may be an offshoot, aka it wont be TD20 again...or will it?
will since the gfs nevr fully recognises td 20 and keeps it as a broad area of low pressure i am saying tis most likley td 20. soince we have a formed system and new recon comming models should be better in tying that down. must not a cyclone is a closed corculation and will not offshoot or form another closed circulation. thats pretty much why i assume its still td 20
Lefty.
Don't misunderstand me regarding models - using them is obviously of great value, but we must be cautious when interpreting the data they produce, and always bear in mind the element of uncertainty in the exactness of data put into them. Enough about that.
Now, that being said - I couldn't agree more than I do with what you say about the Bay of Campeche in your response above.
I think anyone around the Gulf should watch this closely - it could end up practically anywhere.
Sorry, I didn;t see you there, WillJax. Thanks for the help!
ole and thats what i am saying. no one here is saying this is what will happen. were are digesting the new model runs that just came out and trying to determine what they say.
tornadoty - I use Firefox (browser formerly known as Mozilla formerly known as Netscape formerly known as Mosaic - the original). Java works just fine for me, and the campanion software Thunderbird is good for email (fewer security concerns with these packages than MS software, and warm fuzzies for supporting the Free Software Movement).
ok whats the report from the plane?? whens it coming?
Ok, just to clarify Lefty. I was talking about 10 50.
Lefty, you've got mail.
yeah sj. just some convergence. nothing big. i don't see anything forming from that or being ablt to. not only is iot dealing with ull it is also dealing with shear from and ulh, so the shear in that area is likley 20-30kts
recon out soon relax lol.

sj yeah the shear is 30 kts right there. here is the link

Link
code wu mail ?. i don;t see anything


Real Time Recon Info

Man lefty, that says they were at 623 feet. Damn that is crazy.
Should be there.
2pm advisory has td 20 even stronger now. almost a ts

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

codeno mail what so ever man
Lefty..i see two systems hitting west florida in that run.....north and south? is one an off shoot or a second system?
So is the yellow the shear or the orange? or both at different levels? Also lots of shear around the blob off the Carolina coast if it move any further south.
Sorry man, typo in address. Should come in now. Thanks.
buh, i am not 100 percent sure, but i am not looking at the first as its unlikley for a system to offshootfrom a closed circulatiopn and u will notice the gfs keeps it as a broad low when we now know it is no longer a broad low. so i look at what it does with the main part of the broad low and thats sit in the bay form a couple days than it blows up and heads east.so i am looking at the second more than the first. also the first forms rioght off the coast of florida so that might have noting to do with td 20 at all. we will see
Thnaks for the Recon Lefty! Focus on stronger and STATIONARY. Check back this evening, cheers all.
i think the yellow is the shear speed and the orange is like lines of pressure at that level so u can see whats generating the shear and how itincreses or decresses over an area
code reply sent
guy that wasn't the recon it was the 2pm advisory. recon should be out soon though
You da man! Thanks.
What's all this top secret mail about??? lol.
Thanks to all of you guys! It's in the process of downloading (my ineptitude caused a few delays).

Now to the weather, I think TD 20 will be declared a TS at 4 PM.
we talking bout u sj lol. naw he wanted a predictyion and to be safe from the trolls. i was happy to give him one
Hope everything works out Torna. I don't know what I would have done 15 to 20 years ago with no internet radar and Sat and all the other great stuff that uses Java.lol.
man what a day sj. its saturday got tons of football. including a great vt game and a new td. wow. can;'t get no better lol
sj i can't imagine following these things and not having the internet. i remebr whn i was younger all the info i got was from john hope and the weather channel. life has changed so much in 10 years
That's funny Lefty. Don't let the trolls scare ya man. Just always use could and maybe and might and should. Can always throw it back in their face that way.
sj i ma not scared lol.oh my highschool team won again last night. in the last minute. them boys are 4.0 now. talking state championship lol
623 feet Lefty, they might as well have put the pontoons on the damn plane and landed.
lol yeah i know. thats freaking low man. they checking out the sites lol
thanks lefty

one thin for sure ..witch's brew
buhdog, oh yeah man lol
101. code1
SJ,
Value your input too. Had already emailed Lefty before. Appreciate you guys! Trolls are horrid and I am a lurker, (uneducated about meterology) and just wanted some questions answered that seems to bring out the worst in some, and Lefty is always kind enough to answer.
yeah code1. those trolls are probly really prevelant now there is a new td. but to tell u the truth most of them probly stoped watching it when it was dying off yesterday so we might have a lil pace for a time. also since its not directly threatening the us yet they tend to disapear. they will be back when it gets into the bay of campeche
Good afternoon all, ...and we have LIFTOFF, liftoff of long awaited flight TD20 carrying it's cargo of misery bound for "somewhere" along the Gulf coast of TX/MX on Tue..or upper TX to N central Gulf on Wed/Thu...or slamming into FL panhandle to near Cedar Keys on Thu/Fri time frame...
Jeez...too many options right now.

As Dr. Masters pointed out, should be close race on which system gets what name...

Stayed in lurk mode last nite and yes Tornadoty's mention of Opal has striking similarities.
well td 19 is geting some horrible shear and the llc is exposed so it will be some time befor i see td 19 becoming a ts. td 20 is in a good not perfect enviroment and i expect it to be a weak ts by tonight and to be a ts as it passes over the yucatan
Afternoon Doc.
It's all good code, was just giving you guys a hard time. And being nosey. lol. I am no expert either, but am learning more an more each year.
107. code1
Hope you guys see the difference between lurkers and trolls. Lurkers are here to learn, regardless if something is going on or not. Trolls are just troublemakers who only show up when storms are on the horizon. Thanks to all who educate us lurkers!
yeah code love the lurkers, hate the trolls lol
109. code1
Thanks sj. I'll, along with others who are here always, not just during US landfall will be here lurking and learning.
wow cneter looks to be around 18.78n 86.75w. sw of where the nhc stated it was. very interesting
G'afternoon StormJunkie - man you're gonna be late for that wedding if you hang out here too long. LOL. "pontoons on the plane and landed" - more LOL.

Guys I'm looking for you're feedback/thoughts on upper air flow - looks to me like SW flow established across all TX into LA except lower third TX where flow appears still weak. Call me "concerned"!
well doc there is a weak ridge in place and how lonmg it stays where it is will determine the track. some models move it east and that will allow td 20 to recurve aways from mexico. still not sure though so its a wating game
WooHoo! Thank you guys, I finally have Java working on my computer! Thank you SO SO Much!!!!!!
lol torn. happy for ya
Just watched my first loop with it! :) I noticed something, though. There is disturbed weather between the Antilles and TD 19. Lefty, I think you said it was just an area of convergence, but it has been persisting for quite a while, and Dr. Masters did mention the Caribbean being a favorable area for development next week. Do you think it will reach the Caribbean?
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/18:50:30Z
B. 18 deg 48 min N
086 deg 48 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 207 deg 024 nm
F. 247 deg 025 kt
G. 195 deg 016 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 25 C/ 198 m
J. 25 C/ 205 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF309 02HHA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 25 KT SE QUAD 18:32:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


It seems TD20 is just getting its act together, forming a center of circulation about at 18.7N 86.7W. Just about to run ashore, though. Not too impressive windspeeds measured by the recon plane. Wonder if this newborn system will be left with enough power to stay alive after travelling across the base of Yucatan to the hot waters on the other side.
there is a weak wave there torn but the shear is 30kts. nothing will form for some time ion that enviroment
ole since the ciruclation is so borad, its movement over land will actually help to tighten that gradient up. same thing happened woith opal and what the nhc is stating will happen. a weaker system like a depression can actually cross a stretch of land like the yucatan betetr thjan a stronger storm. so it should not impact it much at all
this is what the nhc says on td 20

THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 4
DAYS IS LAND INTERACTION. AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN 18-30 HOURS... INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE RATHER LOOSE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AND
THIS SHOULD AID IN THE QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ONCE
THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 36
HOURS.
We only need to look at TD 3, which survived across the Yucatan to emerge over the Gulf and become Cindy.
TD 20 on navy satellite looked good last night. Lefty sent the first image in. I'm expecting this storm to enter N of Corpus. And it looks good on its way into the Yucatan on visible.
I know Lefty. Right now that SW flow doesn't dig deep enough, and the ridge still extends near TX/MX border, which supports landfall near there if it held up. Doubt it will thru Tue/Wed. with the approaching front...Afraid of it's influence on trop sys. but would be nice to get a real cold front thru...yesterday's was a joke...wooo, 68 deg. low, back up to 91 by aftn. and wind switched back to SE by sunset.

Good point olefosse, but overall circulation of system seems large enough for regeneration.

Well, I'm gonna have to leave awhile...didn't get to see vis sat on last attempt - dialup hung browser...sat servers probably getting heavy load today.
Olefosse, did you read the tropical discussion at NOAA on the interaction with the Yucatan? I'll let you know the status of the front on the way to Amarillo and on down through the Concho Valley.
Very interesting stuff. It will be a pleasure watching the passage over land, to see if this tightening really will take place. The reasoning behind this does makes sense, and I believe it will happen too. Let's just hope Yucatan doesn't suffer much of damage during Stan(?)s visit.
Hello All.

Looks like mother nature is repreducing more blobby's like rabbits again. TD 20 looks interesting. It could Opal, or Roxanne, or none of the above. UI'd lean toward doing a roxanne at this point though.
I am leaning towards a track like Emily's or Gilbert's but not as strong!
Cirrocumulus.
Yes, I did. Interesting and reasonable. Let's see what happens. Please keep me informed as you say - I'm very interested in knowing how this plays out during today and tomorrow. After that, maybe we will have a clue about where Stan(?) will eventually end its days. Southeast Texas? Florida? NE Mexico? Norway?
So we have basically got to Tammy now with these 2 storms... So.. any predictions of how far we actually get into Greek Alphabet names since it looks certain we will?
I don't know how far, maybe Gamma. I have a feeling that TD 19 may never make TS status though.
But I think that November will be active with 2 hurricanes during the month. No evidence to back that prediction up, just my gut.
Omg this is so dumb,all the forecasts are saying that rain chances in south florida are about 30 to 40%.They are WAYYYY off,it should be about 70 to 80% with the amount of moisture and the amount of thunderstorm activity occuring there.I mean there are very numerous storms and the forecasts EVERYWHERE are saying scattered to isolated.The computer models completely failed in south florida today LOL.
I think we'll see 3 tropical storms, and 1 hurricane early in November. Then one last TS in early December. as for this month.... I'm not sure about numbers, but I feel the Category 5 monster streak is not over for this season. I thnik we'll see one more monster this year in the Western Carribean.
Siriously look at the radar there and you will see what I am talking about.
Hey Lefty, you there? I just saw the 384 hr GFS loop, and I noticed it has two systems striking Florida and just about everything developing off of Africa. What do you think about that?
I dought that,and if that does happen then the world is ending soon lol....
I think the GFS is just as reliable as the LBAR at this point.
Well there is going to be ALOT of rain in florida next week and most atlantic systems will be hitting florida for a while,it is just a matter if they develop or not but that big ridge will not allow them to impact any other sates or go out to sea for quite a while.
LBAR is an old model that is why it does poorly.
You may be right about that, the heat content in the NW Caribbean is VERY high, higher than the loop current in the gulf ever got. A strong cold front is forecast to hit the northern Gulf on Friday or so; if it verifies it may cool the northern gulf shelf waters enough to make it impossible for a major to hit the northern Gulf coast afterwards. However I have a bad feeling about a Cat 4/5 forming in the NW Caribbean and heading across western Cuba to blast SW Florida as a cat 3. FYI the latest that a major hurricane has made landfall in the US is Oct 25, 1921 in Tampa area--a cat 3 hit just to the north and caused a 15 foot surge in Tampa Bay, which remains the record.
Hurricane Hazel was also in mid October. The only Category 4 North Carolina has ever had. So nobody even this far north is safe this time of year.
I think the ridge is going to keep everything south of NC for a while though.
Some models are forecasting a tropical/subtropical storm to form in the NE Gulf about Wed/Thurs and sweeping across N Florida/SE GA and then out to sea. Those systems can give coastal GA VERY heavy rain.
Yea, I think so too, ST. We've been lucky except for Isabel since 1999. We are due for our activity to pick up, but I don't think it will this year. I was just using Hazel as an example of nobody is safe from big storms this late in the season.
Boy, the more I look at the surrounding conditions, present estimated center of TD20, and its direction of motion in the last series of satellite pictures, it seems almost obvious that it will end up in the red hot waters of the Bay of Campeche after crossing Yucatan. He will have 1st class conditions there for strengthening a lot - really quickly. If the prediction of holding the act together while passing over land holds true, that is.
We'll see on Sunday, I guess.
Georgia.. Now that is one place that is super overdue for a Cat 3/4 storm.
Well my home county just had a $2 billion real estate development announced 2 days ago. And more on the way. What is worse, is that the chamber of commerce has just started emphasizing now how rare major hurricanes are here. They are NOT saying that the GA coast is immune, but just barely. Mother Nature is going to smite us for that....
It might be rare because GA is kind of tucked in there, but you're right. You're going to get it at some point, and it being soon would not suprise me.
new weather blog out for all of you from DR jeff
150. code1
Dr. Master's has a new post.
In the 1800s at least 7 and maybe 8 (1881 hurricane is questionable) major hurricanes hit. Several (1804, 1824, 1893, 1898) were cat 4s.
Yea, you guys are due sadly.
Jed I am very well aware of the fact that the LBAR is an old model and that it provides poor guidance. I made the comparison because I feel the GFS has been performing poorly recently, although earlier in the season it was perfoming pretty well.

On to the new post.

I am trying to set my time zone and it does not change it shows GMT. How do I get the blogs to show my central time zone?
marric...go to the top of the left navigation bar on this page and look under "page prefs", there will be an option to "select time zone". Click the link and scroll to your time zone and click "set my timezone" below the scroll box. Your timezone should be set then.