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TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:19 PM GMT on August 12, 2009

Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.

Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.


Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.

Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.

Be careful clicking on external links in blog comments
A comment may have been posted on my blog over the weekend containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. The exact link responsible has eluded us thus far, and we are also investigating the possibility that a bad banner ad was responsible. To provide an extra layer of protection, we've installed software on the blogs that will now warn users that they are leaving the site when they click on an external link, so that one has do an extra click to go to an external site. This will give users an opportunity to think twice before clicking on a potentially dangerous link. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by the attack. Please submit a support ticket to help us out in the future for any issues of this nature.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
wow
Im assuming that 90L's COC is located in the center of those two large bands surrounding the system.
3002. cg2916
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
wow

Like I said before... gotta wrap that convection around to help close the LLC.
Mornin,

is the Brown color in the sat pictures representative of Saharan dust?


I am so sad for TD2. Hopefully we get something out of our '09 season. Tis been very bad for development. Models still show strengthening as a consensus in about 3 days, to tropical storm status. Let's stay tuned, as always.
Quoting cg2916:

Shear played its part, too.


For sure, shear was what damaged it first.

Still could be a danger later on even if it does become a remnant low.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
TD 3 is Possile Tonight
in all liklyhood if it organizes today then fires strong convection after sunset local time over 90L maybe by dawn tomorrow we get 03L
Quoting sammywammybamy:
2973. Frances And Jeanne....


Exactly. And near Winter Haven Florida they got hit by all three storms in 2004. Charley, Francis, and Jeane. Charly was only a minor annoyance to me. Francis and Jeane a totally different story.
Quoting cg2916:

Like I said before... gotta wrap that convection around to help close the LLC.
yup and it has to big bands around it which will help it do just that! i'm assuming the NHC will go red with this before Saturday evening, imho.
here is 90L.
3009. rxse7en
Quoting P451:


I have 0 on my ignore list. I see no reason to put anyone on ignore no matter how annoying they seem or how much I disagree with them. It's easy to step over a post you don't like. I feel ignore lists deprive you of the feel of the conversation. Even those you dislike sometimes add something you would want to read.

That's exactly right. The point of this blog is human interaction--good or bad. If you need something more sterile, there are other websites. Just relax and enjoy the drama and education. :)
Quoting canesrule1:
Im assuming that 90L's COC is located in the center of those two large bands surrounding the system.


An appearance like that is indicative of a developing system, with two blobs/bands of moderate to heavy convection surrounding a COC on either side. 90L in other words is consolidating.
3011. Patrap
Don't be sad about the lack of activity in the Atlantic basin. The season started late, therefore heavy activity is likely to last well into October, if this year is anyting similar to other late starting years in history. An El Nino winter is likely to continue the wet trend in the Gulf states.

Quoting serialteg:
Mornin,

is the Brown color in the sat pictures representative of Saharan dust?


I am so sad for TD2. Hopefully we get something out of our '09 season. Tis been very bad for development. Models still show strengthening as a consensus in about 3 days, to tropical storm status. Let's stay tuned, as always.
This buoy is located very close to where 90L is currently positioned and shows a pressure of 1010.5 mb.

Reports are updated every few hours and with 90L being a slow mover the next update will give some indication of whether it is deepening or not.
Quoting cg2916:

Like I said before... gotta wrap that convection around to help close the LLC.
It looked like it was closed in the ascending quickscat pass. I am no expert so if I am wrong please explain why so I don't make the same mistake.
What is that that's pushing dry air to the south in front of 02L? A front of some sort?
What would have been better:

1. NHC declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm
2. NHC not declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm
Quoting melwerle:
Good Morning Everyone -

My stupid question for the day...has any place been hit back-to-back by a hurricane (within days of each other)?

Thanks, Melissa

Frances and Jeanne both storms the eye made landfall here in Stuart, Fl. Will never forget the 2004 year as many other Floridians on both coasts.
90L has the surrounding moisture rolling pretty nicely, you can also see a band of moisture-starved air intruding upon 02L's circulation. Link to 72-hour animation.

Quoting Cotillion:


For sure, shear was what damaged it first.

Still could be a danger later on even if it does become a remnant low.


Hi Cotillion,

97L about a month back brought very cane-like conditions to Puerto Rico. Remember, that low was dismissed, it persisted, deformed and reformed constantly.

Today I wake to gale winds in PR, not as intense as 97L but then again, maybe the brunt hasn't passed. Yesterday it was raining, and six-foot swell forecasts are up for the coast today (the south where I live is still smallish). Let's hope the swell rises during the day, and that our systems survive!

Cheers
See you all later
'morning all! :)

I'm off into serious lurk mode, we're talking months here.

I'll still be producing my animations and other videos for your enjoyment...you know my release schedules on YouTube, or you can e-mail me for info whenever.

I may do a couple of special posts from time to time if I feel I have information beneficial to everyone here.

So that's it! Enjoy yourselves....and I'll see you around.

CycloneOz---out!
Quoting TerraNova:


An appearance like that is indicative of a developing system, with two blobs/bands of moderate to heavy convection surrounding a COC on either side. 90L in other words is consolidating.
Very true, i anticipate this to start acquiring that circular shape with bands around it as the day progresses, here is the latest satellite: Satellite as of 9:15AM EST:
Quoting serialteg:
Mornin,

is the Brown color in the sat pictures representative of Saharan dust?


I am so sad for TD2. Hopefully we get something out of our '09 season. Tis been very bad for development. Models still show strengthening as a consensus in about 3 days, to tropical storm status. Let's stay tuned, as always.


I don't know where you live, and frankly, it doesn't matter, and this comment is aimed at all who are sorry when a storm fizzles, not just you. We live on the gulf coast and pray to the Lord above every day that EVERY STORM fizzles. I too enjoy watching the fascination with these things but please, lives and livelihoods are at stake here and I wish you ALL would stop wishcasting these things on us.

YEESH!!!
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
What would have been better:

1. NHC declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm
2. NHC not declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm

The NHC declaring at 11 am yesturday, when it was at its best.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
What would have been better:

1. NHC declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm
2. NHC not declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm
Not declaring Ana because then at 11 they would have to take it back to TD status because of poor satellite presentation.
I'm calling it... Depression status with system east of the Bahamas 68W in the next couple days.
Quoting asgolfr999:


I don't know where you live, and frankly, it doesn't matter, and this comment is aimed at all who are sorry when a storm fizzles, not just you. We live on the gulf coast and pray to the Lord above every day that EVERY STORM fizzles. I too enjoy watching the fascination with these things but please, lives and livelihoods are at stake here and I wish you ALL would stop wishcasting these things on us.

YEESH!!!


canes - can you get a bigger picture ??? lol
3031. cg2916
Quoting tigerfanintexas:
It looked like it was closed in the ascending quickscat pass. I am no expert so if I am wrong please explain why so I don't make the same mistake.

Actually, if you look on the west side of it, instead of turning upwards, it keeps going west.
3032. cg2916
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
What would have been better:

1. NHC declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm
2. NHC not declaring TS Ana yesterday at 5pm

Not sure. It did have TS winds for a while, but the name would have probably been wasted.
Quoting marknmelb:
canes - can you get a bigger picture ??? lol
sorry, its just i got Firefox so it looks big on mine but small on yours: Here's the link, there are updates every 15 minutes: Link
still, is the Brown color in the sat pictures representative of Saharan dust?
3035. MahFL
hurricanemaniac123, it's irrelivent, the NHC will declare something when they choose, they are the authority tasked with doing so.

Sometimes we mere mortals may disagree with the NHC, but that's ok, as I, at least, am fortuneate enough to live in a democracy.
Quoting canesrule1:
sorry, its just i got Firefox so it looks big on mine but small on yours:


Actually it was HUGE on mine...
Serialteg is that picture gas chambers PR.
CIMSS has 02L flagged for rapid dissipation.

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON
3039. cg2916
Has anyone noticed that on the SSD dvorak page, the 1145 UTC numbers didn't come out for TD2, just 90L? They should have come out around 8:15 to 8:30 eastern time.
Quoting serialteg:
still, is the Brown color in the sat pictures representative of Saharan dust?
it represents shear and SAL and dry which all pretty much mean the same thing, either way u slice it brown is bad for the storm.
3041. Patrap
Quoting marknmelb:


Actually it was HUGE on mine...
u just told me it was very small, huh, LOL!
Quoting asgolfr999:


I don't know where you live, and frankly, it doesn't matter, and this comment is aimed at all who are sorry when a storm fizzles, not just you. We live on the gulf coast and pray to the Lord above every day that EVERY STORM fizzles. I too enjoy watching the fascination with these things but please, lives and livelihoods are at stake here and I wish you ALL would stop wishcasting these things on us.

YEESH!!!


I don't want them to go into landmasses, rather to stay at sea and bring swell conditions for surfing.

One man's garbage is another man's food sustenance...
hey guys looking at TD2 ir loop it look like it is gaining some spots of convection near the center look at the blue and yellow around
14.1n 37.5w
Link
I guess that's a ridge pushing the air down in front of 02....?
Quoting TerraNova:
CIMSS has 02L flagged for rapid dissipation.

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON
I agree with Cimss 110% this is rapidly weakening, you cant even find it on AVN, either this gets a burst of convection in the next 6-9 hours, or it will be classified as a remnant low.
3047. cg2916
This thing doesn't deserve to be TD 2:

It's firing some convection, but again to the west of it's COC.
3049. cg2916
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys looking at TD2 ir loop it look like it is gaining some spots of convection near the center look at the blue and yellow around
14.1n 37.5w
Link

You know, I just now noticed that.
Quoting canesrule1:
it represents shear and SAL and dry which all pretty much mean the same thing, either way u slice it brown is bad for the storm.


Thing is, in PR we get these bad air episodes where the ambient gets clouded by Saharan dust. What is it, sand? Something clouds the weather and makes a clear day "brumoso", I fail to find the thesaurus today. Makes it un-clear, lol
3051. IKE
Quoting cg2916:
This thing doesn't deserve to be TD 2:



It won't be within an hour.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys looking at TD2 ir loop it look like it is gaining some spots of convection near the center look at the blue and yellow around
14.1n 37.5w
Link
it is getting several spots, but for it to truly be classified as Ana it needs to have convection all around.
I doubt they will cancel it with that small burst of convection at the center of 02L
90L's impressive, its absolutely massive too.
Well on its way to become TD3.
Quoting cg2916:
This thing doesn't deserve to be TD 2:

Agreed! now let the RIP's begin! by the way i RIP it.
Thanks serialteg, though I'm sure if it develops or not, you'd rather keep it well away from PR or any other island!

It wouldn't surprise me if they keep an advisory for TD2 and wait until 5pm to discontinue it if it's still like this.

But, we'll see. Right now it's just a very sad looking spiral.
3057. hydrus
Quoting StormChaser81:


or maybe the Waaaaaaaambulance...lol....
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
90L's impressive, its absolutely massive too.
Well on its way to become TD3.
agreed, I'm giving a rough draft, and assuming 03L by Saturday.
3059. Patrap
3060. P451
Quoting cg2916:
This thing doesn't deserve to be TD 2:



Just as a system needs to maintain convection for a period of time before it is declared - a system must also be devoid of convection for a period of time before it is downgraded.

Well TD2 didn't re-fire as I thought, but 90L did. It seems the monster storm is probably going to be "Hurricane Ana" instead of "Bill". We'll see though, 90L does look good this morning, just needs some more convection. There is a low, the GFS is not wrong on this one yet. Also a recurvature is possible AFTER is crosses south of Bermuda, that's when the ridge weakens. Also depends when that trough comes in.. Might still be an East Coast event, still too long to determine that.
Quoting canesrule1:
it is getting several spots, but for it to truly be classified as Ana it needs to have convection all around.

I am not saying ts yet and not saying R.I.P TD2
I think TD2 is starting to get it act together

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
I doubt they will cancel it with that small burst of convection at the center of 02L

cancel what
Quoting P451:


Just as a system needs to maintain convection for a period of time before it is declared - a system must also be devoid of convection for a period of time before it is downgraded.

And it hasn't had convection around it since roughly 10PM EST last night so remnant ow is a high possibility for the 11 o'clock advisory.
3064. hydrus
Quoting hydrus:

Well for what its worth I would like to say that it is clear the Atlantic basin will have a hurricane of considerable size and power in a relatively short amount of time.All the computer models are in agreement that this will occur.The computer models do there job quite well,some definitely better than others.But when (all) the models show a storm of major significance,it will grab the attention of a lot of people,even those who could not care less with what is happening in the tropics.Many people(especially those in high risk areas) are eager to see the latest forecast models to plot where it will strike.this is why I believe it is vital to be prepared as people can be, regardless of what the so called (cone of uncertainty)shows.Hurricanes Ike 2008,and to a slightly lesser extent charlie 2004,the computer model tracks were more than a few degrees off from the actual path of these dangerous storms.During hurricane Charlie ,had it not been for a small handful of quick thinking Meteorologists ,the death toll certainly would have been higher in Lee,Charlotte and Desoto counties of southwestern Florida.After living through this event myself(charlie being the worst and I have lived here for well over 40 years).It truly was a miracle that the death toll was not higher than what occurred,but when people that lived just down the road from you are killed,and the place that you lived for decades is destroyed,it is something you have to deal with,probably for life.The most important thing I learned from all of this is being prepared will save the lives of your family and others as well.I hope my two cents rests well with anyone who is reading this post.:)


Quoting serialteg:


Thing is, in PR we get these bad air episodes where the ambient gets clouded by Saharan dust. What is it, sand? Something clouds the weather and makes a clear day "brumoso", I fail to find the thesaurus today. Makes it un-clear, lol


"brume" is "mist" in french
3066. Patrap
G'morning Ike,check out the GOM IR @ 25N 85w
Well TD2 still has a very well defined circulation. So that's probably what's keeping it going, if any convection were to pop up, it was be declared a Tropical Storm very fast. So that's probably why they haven't dropped it. They might still wait a few more days because conditions are favorable to the west. 90L has no problem with shear because an antcyclone is over it and should keep the strong wind shears away for quite some time.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am not saying ts yet and not saying R.I.P TD2
I think TD2 is starting to get it act together


cancel what


Advisories on TD2, pull the plug, put the kabosh on it, cease to exist eveennnn.
What's kinda weird about TD2 is... the dry air isn't really concentrated nor was the shear overwhelming. I could understand it if it had 50 kts of shear - like some industrial windfan was chained to its ankle.

But the shear was only just about unfavourable - 20 kts or so - and the SAL isn't too bad. Yes, there is dry air on the WV image. However, it's not like a rendition of Mars here on Earth. Should also still be under the positive MJO according to EWP, too.

Slightly baffling. Maybe the circulation wasn't vigourous enough, I'm not sure. I can't make out the storm on the CIMSS anymore, but it's around 40W. Ish. That should be around 10-15kts.

Which is marginally favourable.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I am not saying ts yet and not saying R.I.P TD2
I think TD2 is starting to get it act together


cancel what
beieve me man a very small pop up of light showers and thunderstorms does not make a difference, it needs a little more then that.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


TD2

90L

Pacific
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Advisories on TD2, pull the plug, put the kabosh on it, cease to exist eveennnn.

I have to disagree on that
3074. cg2916
It looks like convection is firing near the center.
3075. Patrap
Good Morning All!

So TD2 is coming back to life a little bit as we speak! It has moved far enough away from 90L that it is no longer disrupting the low level circulation and associated convergence.
Also, it appears from visible satellite that the intense easterly shear aloft from yesterday has waned considerably.

Dry air will make any intensification slow to occur, but she ought to be sticking around for a while still...


Quoting Patrap:


Hmmm - seems to have a twist in the Bahamas...
Pat I noticed that little "twist" in the GOMEX as well. What do you make of it?
WHOAA.. they already ran the HWRF for 90L.. this I gotta see..
Quoting Patrap:
looks like the area of convection near 25N seems to be heading towards S-FLA, and convection is on the rise.
Quoting Patrap:
G'morning Ike,check out the GOM IR @ 25N 85w


Just CB's on a convergence line created by a stalled weakening cold front? A little divergence with a weak upper trof to the W? or do you see a circulation?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I have to disagree on that


You think they will stop advisories?
3083. P451
90L
All ending 12Z

VIS:



IR:



ColorIR:



WV:

Quoting reedzone:
WHOAA.. they already ran the HWRF for 90L.. this I gotta see..
can u give me the link please? thanks
3085. hahaguy
Quoting canesrule1:
looks like the area of convection near 25N seems to be heading towards S-FLA, and convection is on the rise.


Ya it is, been hearing all week on the local news that we will be getting some good rain from it.
I have been pointing toward the Caribbean for about an hour with no response...
Quoting canesrule1:
beieve me man a very small pop up of light showers and thunderstorms does not make a difference, it needs a little more then that.

well wait for another hour-2hours
3088. Patrap
Quoting iluvjess:
Pat I noticed that little "twist" in the GOMEX as well. What do you make of it?


Some energy focused there and well,in the Sweet Spot in the GOM Canyon we call it
3089. IKE
Coming back to life?



The 6z HWRF for the 90L doesn't have apocalyptocane mode on at least.

GFDL doesn't really seem to pick it up.
Quoting ftpiercecane:
Serialteg is that picture gas chambers PR.


It is! That's my friend Steven getting shacked on February 2009. I got even bigger ones, but the cameraman somehow missed me, even if I did catch like 5 set waves right past his face :(
Quoting hahaguy:


Ya it is, been hearing all wee on the local news that we will be getting some good rain from it.
yup, same here
GFDL keeps 90L weak.
3094. Patrap
Im just awake,with a Half cup o java in me,so bear with me while I cruise the loops and Progs in the Basin,look to Look at this am
Here are the models... Notice.. WEST! Most models aim 90L towards the Carribean. The HWRF doesn't strengthen it until it gets near the Carribean. The GFDL actually drops it but then redevelops another low that strengthens, that will probably change on the next run.
Hmm can't post an image for some reason...

Link
Quoting IKE:
Coming back to life?





Aside from dry air entrenchment into the circulation, I can't fathom any other reason why this can't fire back up.

Unless there's something I'm not seeing!
3097. NOLAGuy
asgolfr999 offers a very valid point and I agree wholeheartedly. He/She is saying that it is repugnant to those of us who have lost homes or family or friends in hurricanes that you "Storm Junkies" want the storms to become monsters. I wonder how many of the "Storm Junkies" on this blog have ever endured such a loss? Saying you want them to turn to monsters but stay at sea is ridiculous, like saying you want to get into a cage with a wild beast so you can pet it without getting hurt. Please be respectful to those of us who read this blog for information and not to fantasize about potentially deadly storms.
Quoting IKE:
Coming back to life?



ummmm, yeah right, i don't understand what wunderkidcayman sees in it, because all i see in it a naked swirl.
Quoting CaneWarning:
GFDL keeps 90L weak.


Not surprising, the GFDL keeps every invest weak. That's because it's used for Tropical Depressions and up. However, it does give you a good scenario for track.
3100. IKE
Quoting canesrule1:
ummmm, yeah right, i don't understand what wunderkidcayman sees in it, because all i see in it a naked swirl.


I'm thinking a downgrade within minutes...with a possibility of regeneration.
3101. Patrap
Im betting the NHC will hold onto TD 2 for Now as she is going to enter a Low Shear area later today,and the Bugger has kept her Skirt on,as the Low Circ is "vary" much intact Uncle Ike.

But then again Im just a errant Ol Former Jarhead
Quoting reedzone:
Here are the models... Notice.. WEST! Most models aim 90L towards the Carribean. The HWRF doesn't strengthen it until it gets near the Carribean. The GFDL actually drops it but then redevelops another low that strengthens, that will probably change on the next run.
Hmm can't post an image for some reason...

Link
wow, BAMS takes it straight to SFLA, keep an eye on this one! but i think the models are shifting northward since the first model run, i see the upper Antilles encountering a problem, imo.
3103. eddye
90l wow maybe a south fla storm
Quoting IKE:


It won't be within an hour.


Don't be so sure!
Quoting Patrap:


Some energy focused there and well,in the Sweet Spot in the GOM Canyon we call it


I don't think that his has time to amount to much... maybe some rain for the Everglades.
Quoting Patrap:
G'morning Ike,check out the GOM IR @ 25N 85w

Do I see a little circulation?
There is data provided for the models for TD2 for the 12z runs.. prob'ly keep it for now. See what it does for the next 6 hours.

Of course, if it does regenerate, maybe short lived. If it does go off towards the Bahamas as some models are indicating, right now anyway, it'll just get shredded.
Quoting eddye:
90l wow maybe a south fla storm


You always say that lol
3109. P451
Quoting laflastormtracker:
I have been pointing toward the Caribbean for about an hour with no response...


What's to say? Seems like a long disorganized wave. The blob at the bottom was a yellow alert yesterday but it hasn't done anything.

3110. Patrap
Some really gusty winds in Puerto Rico's south coast being felt...
Ok here's the deal with the GFDL, it doesn't actually drop the storm, run it and you'll see a new low forming after the focused low is dropped, that's the actual storm. Probably near Hurricane status if the GFDL wasn't soo focused on the dissipating low.
Quoting NOLAGuy:
I wonder how many of the "Storm Junkies" on this blog have ever endured such a loss? Saying you want them to turn to monsters but stay at sea is ridiculous, like saying you want to get into a cage with a wild beast so you can pet it without getting hurt.

I agree. If you're going to watch a great white from a shark cage, you better have a strong cage. Keep an eye on our "yellow" wave approaching the Bahamas. Remember, that's where Katrina was born.
90L keeping on looking more and more likely to become a Tropical Depression.
NHC will not drop TD 2 today.
Quoting futuremet:


You always say that lol
lol, but this time we have model support, lol.
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:

I agree. If you're going to watch a great white from a shark cage, you better have a strong cage. Keep an eye on our "yellow" wave approaching the Bahamas. Remember, that's where Katrina was born.

Exactly, we could have the exact same situation because the GOM is so favorable.
ADT doesn't have the rapid dissipation flag on anymore, either.

Sure, not the weakening flag either, but could it get any weaker?

Still something to keep an eye on. Too many times in history have storms been on the point of death, and have rallied.

And who said storms don't have egos?
That little convective burst in the past hour may be what keeps TD 2 alive for another advisory.
TD2 and 90L will both become major hurricanes.
What a disaster.
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:

I agree. If you're going to watch a great white from a shark cage, you better have a strong cage. Keep an eye on our "yellow" wave approaching the Bahamas. Remember, that's where Katrina was born.
very, true but this is not going to have the rapid intensification that Catrina had, it needs a low pressure first.
3122. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


I'm thinking a downgrade within minutes...with a possibility of regeneration.

More convection is firing. And I think the NHC wants to give it another chance.
TD2 is really trying.
Quoting IKE:


I'm thinking a downgrade within minutes...with a possibility of regeneration.


Good Morning Ike!

I'm going to have to disagree with you. 100% chance that it is still TD2 here at 11.

After a closer look at the visible satellite (I just got up) the low/mid level shear is low over TD2, but there is still some upper level easterlies shearing the tops of the convection to the west.

I'm not saying that it'll up and become a tropical storm in the next couple of hours, I'm just saying she ought to be able to maintain status quo as she is feeling less of the effects of 90L.

3125. Patrap
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3126. P451
TD2 reminds me of 96L of 2007.

Despite everything, its little engine tries to keep going.

And yes, congrats on that Pat!
Quoting apocalyps:
TD2 and 90L will both become major hurricanes.
What a disaster.
my there is now way in that 02L will become a cat 3 but 90L is a different story, this big fat boy has potential, lol.
3129. P451
Quoting canesrule1:
And it hasn't had convection around it since roughly 10PM EST last night so remnant ow is a high possibility for the 11 o'clock advisory.


Agreed, except that it is now firing some convection once again. That's all they really need to see in conjunction with the well defined circulation to keep it alive for at least another advisory to see what it does.
Wow look what the HWRF does for TD 2...makes it a 90 knot Cat 2 at the end of the run. Link
convection is increasing on ir loop TD2 not dead that is for sure
Link
Quoting CaneWarning:
TD2 is really trying.
it is, for real, im not being sarcastic.
Quoting cg2916:

More convection is firing. And I think the NHC wants to give it another chance.
they are not going to take it off TD status, imho, but i do think the pressure is going to be higher and movement might be a bit quicker.
Quoting extreme236:
Wow look what the HWRF does for TD 2...makes it a 90 knot Cat 2 at the end of the run. Link


"Hell hath no fury like a scorn'd storm..."
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
convection is increasing on ir loop TD2 not dead that is for sure
Link
It has had a burst of convection on the western side, but its not alive nor is it dead.
SSD has a floater on 90L in anticipation of it moving into viewing range soon.
TD2 has also potential,if it just hangs in for 2 days it will have a great environment.
And the next step is BOOM,BOOM,lol.
One thing to bear in mind with the HWRF though, is the NHC have repeatedly said it's the uppermost outlier with TD2, as it keeps taking it north while the other models don't.
3138. MahFL
Yellow, maybe a red spot too, on the IR on TD 2 now, convection is getting going again.
TD2 is slow springing back to life, a small burst of convection near the COC which to me though lacks convection is better defined than before, I suspect within 24 hours we'll have a named storm, jmo
Quoting extreme236:
Wow look what the HWRF does for TD 2...makes it a 90 knot Cat 2 at the end of the run. Link


It also turns it out to sea it looks like.
Hwrf brings td2 to cat 4.http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/two02l.2009081306/zoom_two02l.2009081306_anim.html
3142. Patrap
Quoting Cotillion:
TD2 reminds me of 96L of 2007.

Despite everything, its little engine tries to keep going.

And yes, congrats on that Pat!


Thanx Cotillion,Im looking forward to it for sure.
In spite of the increased activity in the Tropics, dry air and wind shear are still the predominant stories. TD 2 has good circulation but no thunderstorm activity. Classic case of dry air entraining itself into the storm. Amazing how quickly these storms can dry up. I don't expect much from TD2 at least for 24 - 48 hours, if at all. What still intrigues me is invest 90. It almost looks like TD2 is clearing the path for invest 90. With adequate moisture and low shear, this looks like the first named storm of the season.
3144. P451
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
here is 90L.


Is it just me or does it appear to be getting it's act together a whole lot quicker than anticipated?

It is still very broad but it sure does appear to be attempting to surround the center with a thick band of convection.

This is probably going to be a major player....regardless of how the GFDumbL keeps dissipating it after 6 hours.
Quoting canesrule1:
It has had a burst of convection on the western side, but its not alive nor is it dead.


So it's undead, huh?

Sounds like we might need some holy water and a wooden stake to kill it...
Quoting extreme236:
Wow look what the HWRF does for TD 2...makes it a 90 knot Cat 2 at the end of the run. Link


Talk about keeping it alive huh lol
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


So it's undead, huh?

Sounds like we might need some holy water and a wooden stake to kill it...


More dry air. It'd probably just try and fire convection if you threw water on it...

Reverse zombies!
TD2 is a Texas hit and 90L is a Florida hit.
Everyone will be happy,lol.
Hep Pat - what is your take on the spin in the GOM ?
3150. fire635
Any comments on the AOI north of Puerto Rico? Seems to have a decent at least mid-level circulation no?
TD2 has aanother thing going for it its has picked up forward speed which will enable it outrun some the obstacles it had been encountering.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


So it's undead, huh?

Sounds like we might need some holy water and a wooden stake to kill it...
its half alive half dead at this hour, I might change my mind in the next two hours, lets how it holds up convection wise, and what the Nhc says at 11.
Quoting extreme236:
SSD has a floater on 90L in anticipation of it moving into viewing range soon.


Thats the old TD2 floater, note time stamp at the bottom.
The convection associated with the wave exending from the bahamas down through the carribean is on the increase this morning.. something to watch at least..


It's not over yet... Notice the burst of convection, it's getting a bit bigger.
3157. Buhdog
I am with patrap...

I see 2 new swirls... Bahammas and right off the swfl coast. anyone have a current vorticity map handy?
Quoting reedzone:


It's not over yet... Notice the burst of convection, it's getting a bit bigger.
is that a current image of 02L, and if it is I am impressed.
3159. Patrap
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Hep Pat - what is your take on the spin in the GOM ?



Just a AOI for now,as its in a Favored spot and some energy is on the way in that Gen Direction too
Quoting Buhdog:
I am with patrap...

I see 2 new swirls... Bahammas and right off the swfl coast. anyone have a current vorticity map handy?




For 12z, 850mb.
Quoting Cotillion:


More dry air. It'd probably just try and fire convection if you threw water on it...

Reverse zombies!


So it's more like a Gremlin then? Scary!
Quoting Cotillion:




For 12z, 850mb.
nada
In my opinion some folks are puting to much emphasis on the "Strength" Of 90L. Early model runs, are good two things: Identifying the Genearal direction the wave will be moving, and Determining the weather or not it will be a streaghtning or weakining storm as it approaches the CONUS.

So there's no point in saying that it will be a catagory 5, or a tropicl storm. For those that live in florida, and all the way up through Carolina, the only thing we can determine is it will be moving in our general direction by late next week.
3164. Patrap
Quoting canesrule1:
is that a current image of 02L, and if it is I am impressed.


It's the latest image on the ramsdis site.
3166. cg2916
000
WTNT22 KNHC 131433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.0N 39.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.4N 43.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 46.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 37.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

The didn't discontinue it.
A week from now the GOM will be one great pinnhole.TD2 will be an amazing storm.Never seen before.
Quoting cg2916:
000
WTNT22 KNHC 131433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.0N 39.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.4N 43.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 46.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 37.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

The didn't discontinue it.
interesting
Quoting Patrap:


I just saw the shear map, it's under 5-10 knots of wind shear.. This may allow slow development afterall.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TOO FEW TO GET A DATA-T
NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. SSMI/DATA AT ABOUT 09Z
SUGGESTED 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THAT IS USED
AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SSM/I AND AMSR-E PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR HAS WRAPPED ALMOST ALL
THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE
FACTORS...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...MAY BE PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM MAINTAINING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
3171. Patrap
A new entry from Dr. Masters will soon be Loaded since the TD 2 info is out
3172. usa777
TD2 reminds me a little of Andrew. Anyone remember when everyone said "this one looks like its not going to make it". Sneaks it a little bit different air mass and takes off. I'm not saying this will be the case on this one but you just never know with these tropical storms.
Consider me impressed:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERTSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE SYSTEM COULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY
.
Cue Monty Python "I'm not dead yet!" skit.
WAIT.. I just checked the Vorticity map, there's no vorticity with that wave, soo yeah.. unless things pop up really fast, probably a long time till we even get an invest.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor2&zoom=&tim e=

just look at 850mb 7ooMB and 500MB vorticity 90L is very well stacked and has strong vorticity if this keeps up code red at 2 and TD 03 soon within the next 2 advisories after that.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?AGE=latest&PAGETYPE=static&BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=Reg ion/Sector®ION=AFRICA&SIZE=Full&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SECTOR=Overview&PATH=CONUS/focus_region s/AFRICA/Overview/vis_ir_background/meteo8&INTERVAL=Most_Recent&SUB_PRODUCT=meteo8&ANIM_TYPE=Instant &DISPLAY=Single
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009

...DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST OR ABOUT
885 MILES...1425 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERTSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE SYSTEM COULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.0N 37.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN
NEW BLOG
Quoting Patrap:
A new entry from Dr. Masters will soon be Loaded since the TD 2 info is out


Right on cue!
New blog entry.
Not surprised, I thought they'd wait until 5pm and then see.

5pm maybe the breaker unless it continues this recent trend of progress.

In other news, Guillermo appears to be rapidly intensifying. Winds are now up from 50 to 65 mph.
It amazes me that every day that I have to use the ignore button when I visit the blog. For those of you new here, don't post crap and watch and learn from the regulars (those who know what they're talking about).
sorry ,just learning ,first 97L then 98L and 99L why last wave been call 90L???
Another thing TD-2 had going against it and another reason why 90L has a lot going for it.. TD-2 was small and more likely to dissipate under those conditions where as 90L is massive.
3187. WxLogic
Well... the cone as expected keeps moving south (adjusted). As weaker system will tend to have a more left bias to their movement than a right bias on stronger ones.
Just an observation and something that may need to be monitored a little more closely. Watching quite a few satelite images and loops for the last few hours. AOI just to the east of the SE Bahamas is showing more signs of circulation and much more convection quickly.
Probably a mid level entity at present, but it bears watching since it is close to any significant populated land mass. The area aprox. 21-23 north & 68-69 west
That wave entering the Bahamas is starting to look impressive, for a wave. Any models showing development with it? If 90L does make its way over here it could definitely fit the mold of the many historical killer Cape Verde storms. 5th anniversary of Charley today...5 years ago today I was finishing my preparations. What a day that was!!!
3189. RadarRich 2:48 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
sorry for repost, got lost in the transition to new blog

Just an observation and something that may need to be monitored a little more closely. Watching quite a few satelite images and loops for the last few hours. AOI just to the east of the SE Bahamas is showing more signs of circulation and much more convection quickly.
Probably a mid level entity at present, but it bears watching since it is close to any significant populated land mass. The area aprox. 21-23 north & 68-69 west
3192. hydrus
Quoting hurricanejunky:
That wave entering the Bahamas is starting to look impressive, for a wave. Any models showing development with it? If 90L does make its way over here it could definitely fit the mold of the many historical killer Cape Verde storms. 5th anniversary of Charley today...5 years ago today I was finishing my preparations. What a day that was!!!
I was in Port Charlotte that day.I cannot believe it has been 5 years already.
3193. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
A new entry from Dr. Masters will soon be Loaded since the TD 2 info is out
PATRAP-I wanted to say how cool it is your going to speak at the Portlight Foundation.I think selecting you was and is a wise choice.
3059. PATRAP

I concur there appears to be a rough circulation along the north coast of Cuba at about 23N, 85W. Even a little burst right in the middle of it.
Just for fun...

Another model
CycloneOz - Lurk Mode=On

No telling when I'll turn it off. Find me and my videos / animations on YouTube.

Best Wishes everyone! :)

CycloneOz - Out...

/lurk mode now on
My coforecasters have just returned from a hurricane conference in Bombay. They learned that in India when wishcasters are wrong they post the following pic. Toast anyone?