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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

TD 2 Slowly Organizing, Headed Towards Veracruz, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on June 19, 2013

Tropical Depression Two is slowly spinning west-northwest across the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico--the Bay of Campeche--at 9 mph. The storm has a small area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Mexican radar and satellite loops. The thunderstorms are slowly showing more organization this morning, but the storm has little low-level spiral banding, poor upper-level outflow, and is fighting dry air on its west side. However, the Bay of Campeche is a region where the topography aids the spin-up of tropical cyclones, and I expect TD 2 will have enough time to become Tropical Storm Barry before making landfall late Thursday morning near Veracruz, Mexico. Wind shear was a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Wednesday morning, but is expected to fall to the light range, 5 - 10 knots, during the 12 hours before landfall. TD 2 is taking a very similar track Tropical Storm Marco of 2008. That storm spun up quickly in the Bay of Campeche and developed sustained winds of 65 mph before making landfall in Veracruz State of Mexico. Small storms like TD 2 and Marco (which was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic) can experience very rapid fluctuations in intensity, and it would not surprise me if TD 2 intensified suddenly into a 60 mph tropical storm before making landfall. However, since the storm is so small, these winds would affect only a very small portion of the coast. Heavy rain will be the main threat from TD 2, regardless of whether or not it makes landfall as a tropical depression or as a strong tropical storm. A ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico should keep any of TD 2's rains from reaching the U.S. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to arrive in TD 2 near 2 pm EDT today. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is showing tropical cyclone development in the next seven days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 2 at 8:12 am EDT June 19, 2013. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Marco on October 6, 2008. Marco was the smallest tropical storm ever recorded in the Atlantic. Image credit: NASA.

Portlight receives $25K grant to help victims of Oklahoma tornadoes
The disaster relief charity founded by members of the wunderground community, Portlight.org, announced this week that they had received a $25,000 grant from Americares.org to replace wheelchairs, scooters, ramps and other equipment lost or damaged in the May and June 2013 storms in Oklahoma. About 200 Oklahomans with mobility issues are expected to benefit over the next 45 days. The program is an extension of a partnership that began earlier this year to install ramps for New Jersey residents affected by Superstorm Sandy. It was also announced earlier this month that Portlight and the American Red Cross have signed a Letter of Agreement to work together in disaster response, in order to improve shelter accessibility and share resources and information.Visit Portlight's wunderground blog to learn more or to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks Doc.
Thank youuuu Doc!!.
Thx doc!
nice new page
Thanks Dr Masters
Kinda reminds me of a Karl (2010) track, but MUCH less intense. Let's hope so anyways!!

Thanks for the new entry. :) Going to spend time outdoors all day today. Gorgeous in Southern Illinois not JUST today, but ALL week. Mid-80's and bountiful sunshine. I waited for weather like this for a LONG TIME. Yah!

Natalie
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Thanks Dr Masters
Greetings Gal.
Leepi..
OMG look at the rain avoiding me AND GOING ALL AROUND EXCEPT OVER ME!

Only got half of one inch... Barbuda, just to our east got a lot once again.

Link



94W..
Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters..
Mexico needs the rain from this and am hoping nothing bad from it..
That part ofthe BOC is cool to watch as like you stated storms can rev up quickly..
Kudos to our Portlight friends and their successful endevours..
Thanks again..
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings Gal.


Hello hydrus! Good to see ya Hope you have a pleasant day. It's gonna be a hot one here today. I got .41" of rain last night. First rain since last Friday.
Quoting hydrus:
94W..

I said in earlier today(my time) 94W could be a killer. It has a look of a developing Cyclone now.

10 apps that could save your life
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Hello hydrus! Good to see ya Hope you have a pleasant day. It's gonna be a hot one here today. I got .41" of rain last night. First rain since last Friday.
It is beautiful day here on the plateau..a cool 63 this morning with low humidity...awesome..
Quoting AussieStorm:

I said in earlier today(my time) 94W could be a killer. It has a look of a developing Cyclone now.

10 apps that could save your life
Why 94 will be a killer..?
Congratulations Portlight! You started small, but you always deliver BIG.

Good morning gang. No rain at my house on the northshore yesterday but 50% chance today. I hope so, my fruit trees need a drink. Hope you all stay safe, I'll be lurkin' and learnin'
19. MTWX
from last blog (turned over before I could post)

Quoting pcola57:

Mornin' MTWX..
I don't think Washi meant anything by what she said..
Just think all the climate change discussions yesterday diverted attention away from the storm at hand.. :)



I know Washi meant no ill will. Missed the blog yesterday, so I was unaware of the discussion... wasn't expecting mentioning the heat in Alaska would stir the pot. Again my apologies to all. I like keeping it civil and try to avoid getting into any heated debates with anyone. :)


Quoting StormPro:
Good morning gang. No rain at my house on the northshore yesterday but 50% chance today. I hope so, my fruit trees need a drink. Hope you all stay safe, I'll be lunkin' and learnin'

I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for ya! Fruit trees this time of the year are sensitive. They remind me of my Butternut, Pecan, and Black Walnut trees when it drys out here in late August sometimes. Hopefully not this year though!

Nat
Quoting hydrus:
Why 94 will be a killer..?

It's moving east, which will mean it will make landfall in the central Philippines. They have had plenty of rain already from the enhanced SW Monsoon by TS Leepi.
Thanks Dr.Masters
Thanks Doc!!!
24. MTWX
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for ya! Fruit trees this time of the year are sensitive. They remind me of my Butternut, Pecan, and Black Walnut trees when it drys out here in late August sometimes. Hopefully not this year though!

Nat


Wrote all my fruit trees off this year. Planted a couple apples, a plum, a nectarine and 2 pecans a few years ago... If it wasn't drought and high summer heat, it was the deer and rabbits chewing them down to nubs!! They finally lost there battle this spring... May they rest in peace..
Quoting VR46L:
Thanks Doc!!!
How is the weather in Ireland today?
Quoting MTWX:


Wrote all my fruit trees off this year. Planted a couple apples, a plum, a nectarine and 2 pecans a few years ago... If it wasn't drought and high summer heat, it was the deer and rabbits chewing them down to nubs!! They finally lost there battle this spring... May they rest in peace..


We've got the dreaded white fly down here. Makes beautiful ficus hedges look like this


Doesn't seem to be much it doesn't like to ruin. Leaves sticky-crap all over everything. Taking all the fun out of growing...
000
WTNT32 KNHC 191433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE
COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting CaribBoy:
OMG look at the rain avoiding me AND GOING ALL AROUND EXCEPT OVER ME!

Only got half of one inch... Barbuda, just to our east got a lot once again.

Link





I feel like that sometimes CaribBoy, it seems as though all the action avoids Barbados. Don't worry, in all that soup, you have to get something.
Thanks Dr.Masters......Today i have one year as member of Wunderground Community, has been a pleasure be part of this community. hope continue here for the years to come.

BTW .. BTW..Cariboy take advantage of the rain now!!!
31. MTWX
Quoting mikatnight:


We've got the dreaded white fly down here. Makes beautiful ficus hedges look like this


Doesn't seem to be much it doesn't like to ruin. Leaves sticky-crap all over everything. Taking all the fun out of growing...


Reminds me of the pine borers in Montana... They make whole forests look like that. Really sad to see.
Will the HH depart at 10:30 today? or have they cancelled it?
Wash,plane is at runway ready to depart.

AF 309 on runway for TD 2.

000
URNT15 KNHC 191418
AF309 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20130619
140830 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 318 199 360000 000 /// /// 23
140900 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 317 200 360000 000 /// /// 23
140930 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 312 199 360000 000 /// /// 23
141000 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 306 200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141030 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 303 200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141100 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 305 200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141130 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 307 200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141200 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0158 305 200 360000 000 /// /// 23
141230 3024N 08855W 0158 00005 0164 305 201 360000 000 /// /// 03
141300 3024N 08855W 0158 00009 0169 300 201 360000 000 /// /// 03
141330 3024N 08855W 0158 00006 0159 300 201 360000 000 /// /// 03
141400 3024N 08855W 0158 ///// 0159 301 202 360000 000 /// /// 23
141430 3024N 08855W 0158 00003 0166 301 202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141500 3024N 08855W 0157 00002 0160 304 202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141530 3024N 08855W 0153 00005 0162 308 202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141600 3024N 08855W 0158 00003 0163 286 202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141630 3024N 08855W 0158 00005 0164 280 202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141700 3024N 08855W 0158 00007 0168 280 202 360000 000 /// /// 03
141730 3025N 08855W 0159 00006 0167 277 203 360000 000 /// /// 03
141800 3025N 08855W 0160 ///// 0160 276 203 360000 000 /// /// 23
Anyone think the wave near PR will make it to Florida? Seems to have some good convection associated with it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Will the HH depart at 10:30 today? or have they cancelled it?


Not yet, but it's up on Google Earth. Plane is leaving from Biloxi.
Good morning, afternoon, evening everyone

Well, it's a grey, rain off and on kind of day here. Looks like there's no fishing in our forecast for a couple of days.

This is our warning today:

"Headline: Marine Weather Statement issued June 19 at 9:09AM AST by NWS San Juan

Activation Time: 06/19/13 9:09 AM

Expiration Time: 06/19/13 12:15 PM

Issued By: NWS San Juan (San Juan, Puerto Rico)

Affected Jurisdictions: AMZ710 Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico AND USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N, AMZ715 Coastal Waters of Northern USVI and Culebra out 10 NM, AMZ725 Coastal Waters of Southern USVI, Vieques, and Eastern Puerto Rico out 10 NM, AMZ732 Caribbean Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N


"Description: ...Strong Thunderstorms Over The Waters... The Strong Thunderstorms Will Be Near... Caribbean Waters Of Puerto Rico From 10 Nm To 17N At 920 AM AST. Coastal Waters Of Southern Usvi...Vieques And Eastern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm At 950 AM AST. Coastal Waters Of Northern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm At 1150 AM AST. Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm At 1210 PM AST. National Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated Clusters Of Strong Showers And Thunderstorms Over The Coastal Waters Of Puerto Rico And U.S. Virgin Islands...Producing Strong Winds Of 25 To 33 Knots... Moving West At 20 Knots. Mariners Can Expect Gusty Winds Up To 33 Knots...Locally Higher Waves...And Lightning Strikes. Boaters Should Seek Safe Harbor Immediately Until This Storm Passes. Intense Lightning Is Occurring With This Storm. If Caught On The Open Water Stay Below Deck If Possible...Keep Away From Ungrounded Metal Objects. "

Lindy
Quoting washingtonian115:
Will the HH depart at 10:30 today? or have they cancelled it?


Here ya go washi

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171455
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EDT MON 17 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-017

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- BAY OF CAMPECHE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 18/2000Z A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 18/1645Z C. 19/0800Z
D. 19.0N 92.5W D. 19.5N 94.5W
E. 18/1900 TO 18/2300Z E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE BAY OF HONDURAS FOR
17/2000Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 17/1230Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

Guess I'll have to turn on Google Earth. Glad I don't have to work until 6 today.
Quoting CaribBoy:
OMG look at the rain avoiding me AND GOING ALL AROUND EXCEPT OVER ME!

Only got half of one inch... Barbuda, just to our east got a lot once again.

Link



Where do you live?
When it's raining inside your datacenter, you have a problem

Summary: A sudden shower inside Facebook's first datacenter highlights the issue.

By David Chernicoff for Five Nines: The Next Gen Datacenter | June 12, 2013 -- 13:20 GMT (06:20 PDT)

As reported in The Register this week, Facebook had a unique manifestation of the problems with free air cooling early in the life of their Prineville datacenter. A failure in their building management system combined with ideal weather conditions created a miniature perfect storm that brought clouds and rain to the interior of the building.

Managing humidity in the datacenter is a traditional piece of the datacenter cooling puzzle, but Facebook's experience is a good indicator of how much more complex the environmental management issues can become when you are relying on Mother Nature to provide the bulk of your cooling. Since you can't control the weather outside, you need to have tight control on the internal environment and be ready for a broader range of challenges than would be found in a traditional hardware cooling datacenter infrastructure.

Basically, due to a problem in the environmental management systems, the process of recirculating air through the evaporative cooling system resulted in the cold aisle supply temperature exceeding 80 F and relative humidity exceeding 95%. This effectively meant that it was almost as if they were using a garden hose to mist their servers, an environment that few servers are designed to operate in.


http://www.zdnet.com/when-its-raining-inside-your -datacenter-you-have-a-problem-7000016736/

or
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2338503/F acebook-sever-taken-actual-cloud-rains-INSIDE-seve r-room.html
Watch out for the other surge.
Save your stuff!
Quoting AussieStorm:


Not yet, but it's up on Google Earth. Plane is leaving from Biloxi.

Keep me up to date about what they find, would you? I'm out of town and don't have the recon data app on Google Earth.
"The 1941 to 1945 reanalysis of the Atlantic hurricane database is now available. Four new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. Notable hurricanes include the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, which affected North Carolina, the mid-Atlantic states, and New England, killing 390 people. This hurricane was downgraded from a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 3 at landfall in New York to a Category 2. Also in 1944, a late season Caribbean hurricane that struck Cuba causing 315 fatalities has been upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 major hurricane at landfall. Additionally, in September 1945 a major hurricane struck Homestead, Florida - bearing many similarities in size, track, and impact to 1992's Hurricane Andrew - and was upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 at landfall."

10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 19
Location: 19.6N 94.5W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Does anyone know how long the flight is for recon to TD 2?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Back from work then i check the PR radar and omg rain!

#41 -

Maybe instead of fixing it they should go all out. Have miniature hurricanes and tornadoes running around. On second thought, that wouldn't work. One of the storms would undoubtedly escape and terrorize the city...
45mph is now the peak intensity forecast from the NHC. Avila sounded like he wanted to upgrade but as usual they will wait for recon to confirm.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS
MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY
METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN
GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS
ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


52. Ed22
Tropical depression two look very impressive we could have tropical storm in the 11am advirsory could have 40 or 45 MPH tropical storm force winds. Yes my odds are at 50% today it has 15 to 36 hours to become tropical storm.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
45mph is now the peak intensity forecast from the NHC. Avila sounded like he wanted to upgrade but as usual they will wait for recon to confirm.


They want to be very sure about an upgrade with recon.
00z Euro..potential??
48 hours

72 hours


Quoting Gearsts:
Back from work then i check the PR radar and omg rain!



Y'all have tornado reports earlier? Thought I saw a radar post on this morning's blog with a vortex on it.
NHC is becoming very confident that TD 2 Will become Barry soon.
Newbie question, how do I get the live recon tracking to work on my ipad?
Quoting stormchaser19:
Thanks Dr.Masters......Today i have one year as member of Wunderground Community, has been a pleasure be part of this community. hope continue here for the years to come.

BTW .. BTW..Cariboy take advantage of the rain now!!!


Unfortunately I haven't got much :( (less than one inch) and the GFS is always very quick when it comes to bring back the SAL and boring weather.
When is recon investigating the system?
Quoting Gearsts:
Where do you live?


In St Martin.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The 1941 to 1945 reanalysis of the Atlantic hurricane database is now available. Four new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. Notable hurricanes include the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, which affected North Carolina, the mid-Atlantic states, and New England, killing 390 people. This hurricane was downgraded from a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 3 at landfall in New York to a Category 2. Also in 1944, a late season Caribbean hurricane that struck Cuba causing 315 fatalities has been upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 major hurricane at landfall. Additionally, in September 1945 a major hurricane struck Homestead, Florida - bearing many similarities in size, track, and impact to 1992's Hurricane Andrew - and was upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 at landfall."

My friend was living on Boca Grande when the Cuba/Florida Hurricane struck S.W.Florida. He said the wind was absolutely incredible.. A large and intense storm with a 163 mph gust measured at Sarasota. Coincidentally, Havana also measured a peak gust at 163 mph.
Costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricanes 1900-2005
Total estimated property damage, adjusted for wealth normalization[5] Rank Hurricane Season Cost (2005 USD)
1 "Miami" 1926 $157 billion
2 "Galveston" 1900 $99.4 billion
3 Katrina 2005 $81.0 billion
4 "Galveston" 1915 $68.0 billion
5 Andrew 1992 $55.8 billion
6 "New England" 1938 $39.2 billion
7 "Cuba%u2013Florida" 1944 $38.7 billion
8 "Okeechobee" 1928 $33.6 billion
9 Donna 1960 $26.8 billion
10 Camille 1969 $21.2 billion
Quoting kingcane:
Anyone think the wave near PR will make it to Florida? Seems to have some good convection associated with it.


FRI-TUE...STILL AWAITING 00Z ECMWF AS OF THIS WRITING BUT TREND OF
GFS OVER THE WEEKEND INDICATES SELY FLOW COMPONENT STARTING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF BY FRIDAY AND BACKING MORE TO SE-E THIS WEEKEND.
MAY HAVE A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE SAT DUE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERN/INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON FRI. HAVE MAINLY KEPT IN SCATTERED POPS
DAYTIME AND SLIGHT POPS AT NIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS MAY NEED SOME TWEAKS DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF INFLUENCE
WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 80S COAST AND NEAR 90/LOW 90S INTERIOR...OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.


NWS in MLB had this to say this morning. They seem to be in the camp of it going S of CentFL so SFL could be in the mix...
Quoting yqt1001:
When is recon investigating the system?
There departing right now.
Quoting CaribBoy:


In St Martin.


This cam is where you are Boy. It looks rainy. Here it has been with scattered showers in San Juan all morning long and it looks like it will be this way for the rest of today.



Quoting HurricaneAndre:
There departing right now.


Alright, thanks.
Looks like even the Virgin Islands received decent rain.
Quoting mcdsara1:
Newbie question, how do I get the live recon tracking to work on my ipad?


The one you're thinking of requires Google Earth, which I'm pretty sure can be installed on an iPad, but regular live-updating web images can be found here which are very easy to view in a web browser and require no effort to access.
Quoting mikatnight:


Y'all have tornado reports earlier? Thought I saw a radar post on this morning's blog with a vortex on it.
Just the radar going crazy.
Looks like a big blob to me, who knows though -- it might actually be approaching tropical storm status.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Looks like even the Virgin Islands received decent rain.


It's been off and on. While I was on the bay this morning, the darkness was more between here (St. Thomas) and St. Croix.

Lindy
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


This cam is where you are Boy. It looks rainy. Here it has been with scattered showers in San Juan all morning long and it looks like it will be this way for the rest of today.





The cam actually shows distant storms... I don't think they will reach us.

Yes the sky is gray but not much is happening (only 1/2 inch during the night and early this am)


Source. Ummh, this very severe storm should hit Paris soon ...

Loop
I think you guys are right. Looking good.


NWS Missoula ‏@NWSMissoula 1m
thunderstorm with frequent lightning; gusty winds heading to #Salmon, next 15 min; when thunder roars, go indoors #idwx
Quoting barbamz:

Source. Ummh, this very severe storm should hit Paris soon ...

Loop



That is unusual. Quite a storm.
Good Morning from America's Letf Coast
I think that td2 is already a TS but they will not upgrade it until recon goes in and by then it will be at a 45 mph storm.
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH

I say 50MPH
TD 2 Looks like Barry to me. We could use a nice tropical drenching (TD,TS, NO H) here in St. Augustine. Everything but the cutso is turning brown.
Quoting hydrus:
How is the weather in Ireland today?


Sorry Hydrus Never saw it till now ... Its a stone splitting 55 with cloudy skies :) How is it with ya ?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH

I say 50MPH



G. Small but powerful TS. 68 mph Bay of campchie and all
Quoting Grothar:



That is unusual. Quite a storm.



Quoting AussieStorm:
“A beast”: Shocking, enlightening supercell thunderstorm photos from Nebraska



Is that photo shop lightening? If not just wow
Quoting barbamz:

Source. Ummh, this very severe storm should hit Paris soon ...

Loop

Since Tom paris lives in paris, he will warp voyager out of paris when the storm hits.
Yeah i know it was offtopic.
the article says that last year's greenland icemelt was so unexpected that nobody thought to blame it on global warming. i'm kind of amazed at the geewhiz tone they take. and if i'm reading it right, it's another attempt to deny global warming.

Our research found that a ‘heat dome’ of warm southerly winds over the ice sheet led to widespread surface melting.” This was not predicted by the climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and perhaps that indicated a deficiency in those models, he suggested.

The event seemed to be linked to changes in a phenomenon known to oceanographers and meteorologists as the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), another well-observed high pressure system called the Greenland Blocking Index, and the polar jet stream, all of which sent warm southerly winds sweeping over Greenland’s western coast."

sorry if this is offtopic, is there a better blog for this?
Quoting 62901IL:

Since Tom paris lives in paris, he will warp voyager out of paris when the storm hits.


?? what did I miss?
Quoting VR46L:


Sorry Hydrus Never saw it till now ... Its a stone splitting 55 with cloudy skies :) How is it with ya ?
Gorgeous.
Quoting Autistic2:


Is that photo shop lightening? If not just wow


Read the link, it's 100% real.
Quoting Autistic2:


?? what did I miss?

Well, you missed the map that barbamz posted.
92. MTWX
Quoting barbamz:

Source. Ummh, this very severe storm should hit Paris soon ...

Loop


Wow! If you turn on the lightning feature, that is quite a storm!!!
Quoting hydrus: [#61]

HURDAT also has new figures for the 1947 Pompano Beach Hurricane which significantly reduced the sustained wind speed, if not the category.


Reprinted from the 'History' section of the Hurricane Protocol 2013 guide:

Most sources continue to state this storm is the 4th strongest hurricane to ever strike the US, but according to the Hurricane Reanalysis Project (HURDAT), the "landfall intensity" of 1947–Storm 4 (aka: Ft. Lauderdale Hurricane/Pompano Hurricane/Hurricane George) was 130 mph (115 Kt) - substantially less than the 155 mph (135 Kt) formerly believed. It remains a cat 4, but a low end instead of a high end. The cyclone windfield was 275 miles wide, and the radius of maximum wind was about 20 nm, which is roughly equivalent to an eye diameter of 30 nm. Coordinates from Sept. 17 at 1630 UTC (11:30 am local time) of Lat. 26.2 N, Lon. 80.1 W, place the center a half mile from the ocean, directly between Atlantic & Oakland Park Blvd (Pompano Beach). Despite the reanalysis, the cyclone did produce sustained winds of 122 mph at the Hillsboro Inlet Light near Pompano Beach, and was the highest measured wind speed recorded in the state of Florida until Hurricane Andrew in 1992. An 11-foot storm surge was reported along the Florida coast and large stretches of State Highway A1A between Palm Beach and Boynton Beach were washed out. Between Sloans Curve and the Lake Worth Municipal Casino Building, 5 miles of the beachfront highway were left barren, as “just an empty strip of beach...as though no road existed there.” The road was eventually rebuilt about 200 yards further west; sections of the old road can still be seen just offshore. The historic casino building itself, built in 1922, was unroofed, its dance floor flooded, and itself condemned, later to be rebuilt after the storm. At Lake Okeechobee a 20 foot storm surge was reported along the south shore between Clewiston and Moore Haven, nearly overrunning the Herbert Hoover Dike. It was also a slow moving storm (10 mph), producing up to 10 inches of rain, exacerbating existing flood conditions across all of southernmost Florida. Rainfall records were set in many areas - some of which still stand today. The hurricane killed 17 people in Florida.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Read the link, it's 100% real.


Sorry did not notice the link. Running on 12 hours sleep. (too much) Took Benadryl and on 2 cup of coffee....
TD 2 still a depression...expect it to be Barry soon.
Mr. Paris is in TD 2, exploring the storm.
Got it now, goggled Tom Paris. It's a si fi thing.


sunrise earlier this am
Quoting Autistic2:
Got it now, goggled Tom Paris. It's a si fi thing.

Mr. Paris, warp 6.
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)




current updated time stamp

Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)





It looks pretty healthy despite the hostile envirment.
While waiting for recon to take off and fly toward TD2, I'm downloading radar images from July 19, 2006 storm event that hit St. Louis hard. That storm had some of the strongest winds I've ever seen so far in my young life at around 90 to 100 mph. Wondering how fast the radar is showing...
Tornado tracks

NE is the way.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Looking nice.
02L WV

click image fer loop


Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)







I am contributing all the hostility I can manage to its environment. : )
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)







twas the usual suspect subject matter...lol
Quoting Patrap:
02L WV

click image fer loop



nice
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
tornado tracks

Very impressive graphic!!!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
tornado tracks


Awesome picture, GS!! :) I saw that on one of the Yahoo articles earlier.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
tornado tracks


The Jarrell tornado family sure stand out on the SW grouping.
144HR GFS big wave coming into the Caribbean
Quoting 1900hurricane:

The Jarrell tornado family sure stand out on the SW grouping.

I know right!!
A few images of TD 2





does anyone see them?
Quoting 1900hurricane:

The Jarrell tornado family sure stand out on the SW grouping.
And Joplin in SE grouping. Really awesome graphic these people credited made.
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)






Ahh, but you got post #100! Gonna be your lucky day...
Oh, BTW, I made a new post.
In case anyone was wondering what the weather is like in Southern Illinois at the moment, well....

Nat



Quoting SouthernIllinois:





looking forward to a nice day.
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)




uggg, lots of rain for paradise, that wave is looking vigorous for june...
Is anybody else angry that the new Superman movie shows the public that the best place to take shelter in a TORNADO (edit) is under an overpass!!!!!! Or that an overpass is even a good option.!?
What kind of dumb writer, director combination thought THAT was a good idea?!??
The movie needs a disclaimer before they get someone killed and/or seriously sued.
Quoting 62901IL:

looking forward to a nice day.

Yep. A very nice day week!!! :-)
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Awesome picture, GS!! :) I saw that on one of the Yahoo articles earlier.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

The Jarrell tornado family sure stand out on the SW grouping.


And the carolina and alabama outbreaks in 2011
Plane departs from Biloxi.

URNT15 KNHC 191524
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20130619
151500 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +274 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151530 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +274 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151600 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +275 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151630 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +275 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
151700 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +274 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151730 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +270 +227 360000 000 /// /// 23
151800 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +270 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151830 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +270 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151900 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +271 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151930 3025N 08855W 0158 ///// 0147 +271 +232 311002 004 /// /// 23
152000 3024N 08856W 0101 00023 0141 +261 +234 315007 008 /// /// 03
152030 3023N 08857W 9908 00202 0148 +244 +227 313009 011 /// /// 03
152100 3022N 08858W 9828 00293 0161 +239 +224 299009 010 /// /// 03
152130 3021N 08858W 9826 00292 0159 +237 +223 298009 010 /// /// 03
152200 3019N 08859W 9785 00310 0144 +232 +220 294012 013 /// /// 03
152230 3018N 08900W 9387 00671 0136 +211 +185 296015 016 /// /// 03
152300 3016N 08901W 9114 00951 0157 +191 +155 294017 017 /// /// 03
152330 3015N 08902W 8803 01229 0149 +174 +123 286018 019 /// /// 03
152400 3013N 08903W 8360 01682 0159 +148 +079 277017 017 /// /// 03
152430 3012N 08904W 7972 02082 0159 +129 +004 270016 017 /// /// 03
$$
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Plane departs from Biloxi.

URNT15 KNHC 191524
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20130619
151500 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +274 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151530 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +274 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151600 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +275 +231 360000 000 /// /// 23
151630 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +275 +230 360000 000 /// /// 23
151700 3025N 08855W 0164 ///// 0151 +274 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151730 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +270 +227 360000 000 /// /// 23
151800 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +270 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151830 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0151 +270 +228 360000 000 /// /// 23
151900 3025N 08855W 0163 ///// 0150 +271 +229 360000 000 /// /// 23
151930 3025N 08855W 0158 ///// 0147 +271 +232 311002 004 /// /// 23
152000 3024N 08856W 0101 00023 0141 +261 +234 315007 008 /// /// 03
152030 3023N 08857W 9908 00202 0148 +244 +227 313009 011 /// /// 03
152100 3022N 08858W 9828 00293 0161 +239 +224 299009 010 /// /// 03
152130 3021N 08858W 9826 00292 0159 +237 +223 298009 010 /// /// 03
152200 3019N 08859W 9785 00310 0144 +232 +220 294012 013 /// /// 03
152230 3018N 08900W 9387 00671 0136 +211 +185 296015 016 /// /// 03
152300 3016N 08901W 9114 00951 0157 +191 +155 294017 017 /// /// 03
152330 3015N 08902W 8803 01229 0149 +174 +123 286018 019 /// /// 03
152400 3013N 08903W 8360 01682 0159 +148 +079 277017 017 /// /// 03
152430 3012N 08904W 7972 02082 0159 +129 +004 270016 017 /// /// 03
$$

Our time of judgement is nearing.
Anyone getting data from HH on Google Earth? All I have is takeoff info.
Quoting hydrus:
My friend was living on Boca Grande when the Cuba/Florida Hurricane struck S.W.Florida. He said the wind was absolutely incredible.. A large and intense storm with a 163 mph gust measured at Sarasota. Coincidentally, Havana also measured a peak gust at 163 mph.
Costliest U.S. Atlantic hurricanes 1900-2005
Total estimated property damage, adjusted for wealth normalization[5] Rank Hurricane Season Cost (2005 USD)
1 "Miami" 1926 $157 billion
2 "Galveston" 1900 $99.4 billion
3 Katrina 2005 $81.0 billion
4 "Galveston" 1915 $68.0 billion
5 Andrew 1992 $55.8 billion
6 "New England" 1938 $39.2 billion
7 "Cuba%u2013Florida" 1944 $38.7 billion
8 "Okeechobee" 1928 $33.6 billion
9 Donna 1960 $26.8 billion
10 Camille 1969 $21.2 billion


These numbers are quite a bit off, Katrina damages were much much higher, nearly 200 billion.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone getting data from HH on Google Earth? All I have id takeoff info.

I dunno. I don't have google earth.

Webcam Paris/France (looking to the northwest; new shot every 3 seconds; website with metereological readings). Storm is moving in now.



Map of lightning
Live webcam of the Eiffel Tower. We might see some lightning strikes if we're lucky.
Quoting barbamz:

Webcam Paris/France (looking to the northwest). Storm is moving in now.

Get us out of here, Mr. Paris.
i am still going offtopic.
Whoa the blog is flying.
So is recon.

I give this a 47% chance to become Barry.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Whoa the blog is flying.
So is recon.

I give this a 40% chance to become Barry.

Blog is not quite in hyperdrive yet.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH

I say 50MPH

I also say 50MPH :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting taco2me61:

I also say 50MPH :o)

Taco :o)

I say 45mph.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone getting data from HH on Google Earth? All I have is takeoff info.


They just took off .. it will be awhile before they get to the southern part of the gulf ..
For those who might've missed this last night,

As Dr. Masters blogged, there was a small tornado at DIA (Denver International Airport) yesterday.


If you want to hear just how freaked out the control tower operators get when a tornado hits their airport (as it turns out, not very freaked out at all) you can listen to archived ATC recordings like so...

1) go to: http://www.liveatc.net/archive.php

2) Click yesterday (June 18)

3) Click "KDEN Tower" or one of the other "KDEN..." channels (So far I've found the most chatter on "KDEN Public Safety")

4) Click 2000-2030Z (the zulu time of the storm, which I figured out from Dr. Masters radar image of the funnel cloud, which says "20:22 UTC")

5) Click "Submit"

You'll get a page with a little audio player at the top. Depending on the KDEN channel you choose the activity starts around the 15 to 20 minute mark.

Here's a quote from the Tower conversation, which you can either DOWNLOAD HERE or play in your browser using the method I describe above.

Mercury 3510: "That funnel cloud was visible to us coming in on one six left"

It's at about the 21:20 mark. Thereafter the control tower starts announcing a "microburst alert" to all incoming/outgoing traffic. Some taxiing planes are advised to turn around and return to the terminal.


If you go to the KDEN Public Safety recording, which again, you can DOWNLOAD HERE or fetch in your browser using my instructions above, you'll find a couple of interesting quotes, though it's all delivered with an impressive lack of passion:


16:19: "Not seeing an actual funnel cloud, but there is definite tornado activity on the ground just east of the perimeter fence. There's an awful lot of construction workers out here that probably need to get picked up."

18:11 "I am getting heavy hail on the east side."

23:40 "There's another funnel cloud starting to turn right next to the terminal, east side."
P.S. Pluto,
see Dr. Ricky Rood's blog for a good place for ice sheet melting and climate change discourse/flame wars.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone getting data from HH on Google Earth? All I have is takeoff info.

I am... I have the flight around Cat Island right about now
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH
E. TD
G' morning everyone,

Here in OK it's getting warmer (mid-80's right now)
, still humid, with a slight chance of rain. Yesterday, many regions in the So. Plains under severe/extreme drought received a soaking - lets hope that continues today.

Won't be around much today (breathe a collective sigh of relief, as I have noticed the toll yesterday's blog maelstrom has taken . . .).

Well, first to admit, I will be dining on crow.

Did not think that the "little atmospheric engine that could" aka TD2 would make it all the way to the BOC, much less acquire a name.

Thanks for breakfast :D.

Have a fantastic day all!
Quoting AussieStorm:
“A beast”: Shocking, enlightening supercell thunderstorm photos from Nebraska


Pictures like this should be meat and drink to the UFO believers - I've seen many a lenticular cloud with its nice sharp edges being touted as a UFO.
Gorgeous Photo!!!
Quoting biff4ugo:
Is anybody else angry that the new Superman movie shows the public that the best place to take shelter in a hurricane is under an overpass!!!!!! Or that an overpass is even a good option.!?
What kind of dumb writer, director combination thought THAT was a good idea?!??
The movie needs a disclaimer before they get someone killed and/or seriously sued.


It's a movie... if people decide to take shelter under an overpass because they saw it in a movie well... then those are stupid people. Sorry to put it bluntly, but there are many mediums by which you can attain the appropriate information in the case of a hurricane. I think you're overreacting haha.
Quoting RyanSperrey:


These numbers are quite a bit off, Katrina damages were much much higher, nearly 200 billion.
Does not surprise me. Some of those numbers are close.
151. FOREX
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH
E. TD

b
Quoting FOREX:

b

That's what I chose!
ok my HH data is updating now....took a while...we good to go
Quoting Grothar:
This is looking so good I almost want to place it on BlobCon 1. Although it is in a hostile invironment. (not unlike the blog yesterday, I might add.)




Blobcon..Lol.
I say 50.01% it will be Barry when HH get in there.
Quoting hydrus:
Does not surprise me. Some of those numbers are close.


Key words are "wealth normalization" so they account for the 100 year inflation of the dollar.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I say 50.01% it will be Barry when HH get in there.

I say there is a 100.00% chance it will be Barry when they get in there
Nio regions bordering La Nina.
Nio 1 2
-1.34
Nio 3
-.89
Nio 3 4
-.43
Nio 4
-.19
Warning! Warning! Warning! Blobcon 1! Blobcon 1! Blobcon 1! Danger ! Danger ! Danger!
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What will TD 2 peak at
A. 40MPH
B. 45MPH
C. 50MPH
D. 55MPH
E. TD
D
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Warning! Warning! Warning! Blobcon 1! Blobcon 1! Blobcon 1! Danger ! Danger ! Danger!

LOL! :D
NHC has changed the track of 02l to the north, almost in every discussion since yesterday...
Given it's current speed I'd say it has time to get to 50 mph, so C.

165. Ed22
To me tropical depression two has become tropical storm Barry it could well update in the11am forecast. Satellite imagery show a slow organising centre of the system but its getting there, therefore NHC should be out their from this morning investigating the system. Their be a second reconnaissance aircraft to be on standby the system could be between 45 to 60 mph.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"The 1941 to 1945 reanalysis of the Atlantic hurricane database is now available. Four new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. Notable hurricanes include the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, which affected North Carolina, the mid-Atlantic states, and New England, killing 390 people. This hurricane was downgraded from a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 3 at landfall in New York to a Category 2. Also in 1944, a late season Caribbean hurricane that struck Cuba causing 315 fatalities has been upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 major hurricane at landfall. Additionally, in September 1945 a major hurricane struck Homestead, Florida - bearing many similarities in size, track, and impact to 1992's Hurricane Andrew - and was upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 at landfall."

Where can I find this Reanalysis?
Quoting Ed22:
To me tropical depression two has become tropical storm Barry it could well update in the11am forecast. Satellite imagery show a slow organising centre of the system but its getting there, therefore NHC should be out their from this morning investigating the system. Their be a second reconnaissance aircraft to be on standby the system could be between 45 to 60 mph.

The 11 am EDT advisory was already issued. The next update is at 2pm EDT.
So I was looking over the old radar files from July 19, 2006, which is the night derecho ran through Illinois and Missouri going southwestern direction. Storm was heading toward Indiana when it made a turn from eastern to southwestern direction somewhere over northern Illinois. This derecho struck St. Louis area suddenly, and surprised all of us as it came into the area from NE instead of SW. 40,000 fans at Busch Stadium watching Cardinals/Braves was caught by surprise as 80 to 90 mph winds went through the stadium in matter of seconds. Couple of boards got tossed into the stand and injured 40 fans enough to be sent to hospital. Derecho would reach me few minutes later in SW St. Louis County and delivered 80-100 mph wind gusts. GR2A would say that storm had 74 knots winds when it hit me which is 85 mph winds, which is what I thought I saw that night. Derecho would end up being the worst storm I've been though (still is the worst one today). Derecho also caused St. Louis the most costly damage from a thunderstorm ever and million of people lost power (I didn't lose it) during one of those heat waves. It was brutal for the locals to live through that heat without the power. Another derecho (weaker one) would later hit St. Louis area again 2 days later on July 21, 2006. As result of that derecho, Busch Stadium went under major safety changes including storm shelter areas, radar on scoreboard during event, parthership with NWS St. Louis through StormReady program which is the first major sports stadium to do so in United States, and many more. Here's the radar image as it hit me (not pretty looking derecho, but it did packed a punch!):

Blog is never going to go into hyperdrive.
Quoting Hurrihistory:
Where can I find this Reanalysis?

You can find it here
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I say 50.01% it will be Barry when HH get in there.

I give it a 32.78294622 multiplied by 2 plus 10.52332 minus 2.899 divided by 3 plus 32.3333446 % of it becoming Barry.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I give it a 32.78294622 multiplied by 2 plus 10.52332 minus 2.899 divided by 3 plus 32.3333446 % of it becoming Barry.

And what percentage would that be?
Quoting 62901IL:

And what percentage would that be?
about 75%.
Quoting 62901IL:

And what percentage would that be?


The same thing hahahah.
Quoting 62901IL:

And what percentage would that be?

Assuming he meant it to be solved sequentially and not by the standard order of operations, that would be 56.73008208%.

And if I got that wrong, then it's a bad sign for the class I'm about to attend... :P
2013JUN19 151500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.4 3.9 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -61.46 -40.40 CRVBND N/A 19.60 94.51 FCST
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
ok my HH data is updating now....took a while...we good to go
1st flight of the year.


Interesting circulation off the coast of France. If waters only would be 10 degrees Celsius warmer ;)

A buoy off Veracruz is reporting sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering this is well away from the tight center of circulation and not within any storms, it's a good chance the winds in the storms over the center are sustained tropical storm-force.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
2013JUN19 151500 2.2 1007.4/ +0.0 / 32.0 2.2 2.4 3.9 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -61.46 -40.40 CRVBND N/A 19.60 94.51 FCST
Uh?!

Exhibit A there coming.
Quoting AussieStorm:
1st flight of the year.

There were flights into Andrea.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Assuming he meant it to be solved sequentially and not by the standard order of operations, that would be 56.73008208%.

And if I got that wrong, then it's a bad sign for the class I'm about to attend... :P

Lol
Quoting AussieStorm:
1st flight of the year.
No,they flew in Andrea.Plus Test runs.
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
Wednesday 19jun13 Time: 1135 UTC
Latitude: 19.83 Longitude: -94.49
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 6 [130]
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
| Estimated MSLP: 999 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 42 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-------------------------------------------------- ---------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.36
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.88
Channel 6 (~350 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.38
RMW: 111 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1010 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 06 Day: 19 Time (UTC): 1200

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
Quoting barbamz:


Interesting circulation off the coast of France. If waters only would be 10 degrees Celsius warmer ;)



Quoting HurricaneAndre:
No,they flew in Andrea.Plus Test runs.
D'oh!!!
It is after 2am here, I'm waiting for the 1st pass then going to bed.
Quoting AussieStorm:
D'oh!!!
It is after 2am here, I'm waiting for the 1st pass then going to bed.
You might be up for a hour and half at least...
Quoting 1900hurricane:

You can find it here
Thanks for the link!
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I give it a 32.78294622 multiplied by 2 plus 10.52332 minus 2.899 divided by 3 plus 32.3333446 % of it becoming Barry.


I think you have nailed it!
193. Ed22
What about that tropical wave to northeast of leeward island in the lesser Antilles, that tropical wave that they in a hostile environment but that could change though its looks impressive in a unfravourable environment. If it stay that way the NHC could give a 10% chance of become tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours back to tropical deppression two could strengthened rapidly if it do so like tropical storm Andrea we could be looking between 55 to 70 MPH winds the system has the next 12 to 36 hours to do so. So far to me its already a tropical storm Barry by looking different satellite images.
For those who tend to believe every bit of Recon data.....


NHC's Use of Aircraft Data
The little bugger survived it's trip over land and now poises even more threats ahead. Man. Some resiliency I tell ya. :D
Quoting Ed22:
What about that tropical wave to northeast of leeward island in the lesser Antilles, that tropical wave that they in a hostile environment but that could change though its looks impressive in a unfravourable environment. If it stay that way the NHC could give a 10% chance of become tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours back to tropical deppression two could strengthened rapidly if it do so like tropical storm Andrea we could be looking between 55 to 70 MPH winds the system has the next 12 to 36 hours to do so. So far to me its already a tropical storm Barry by looking different satellite images.
Look again.
Too hot for President Obama three hours ago in Berlin, lol. (33C)
pic1
pic2.

You see I try to entertain you with European weather while waiting for HH ... BBL
Good Morning, Recon now out to investigate 02L. Though they would leave a little earlier. Anyways there is a good chance this could be Barry and continue to strengthen upon landfall.
Quoting Gearsts:
Look again.


The TUTT is well defined.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I give it a 32.78294622 multiplied by 2 plus 10.52332 minus 2.899 divided by 3 plus 32.3333446 % of it becoming Barry.
LOLOL.....32.2889886809%

But I only made it through 9th Grade....so whatever....LOL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A buoy off Veracruz is reporting sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering this is well away from the tight center of circulation and not within any storms, it's a good chance the winds in the storms over the center are sustained tropical storm-force.

What buoy? Those could be local winds from thunderstorm down drafts. Dunno without a link.
Quoting Gearsts:
Look again.


The Upper Low is shear it apart it also looks like it will stick around for the rest of the month. Once the MJO pulse comes back to this region it may lift north allowing lighter winds aloft.
Quoting Gearsts:
Look again.
I have a hunch that Florida will be visited by at least a couple of tropical cyclones this year...Naturally, I hope I,m wrong.
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 16:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 2 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 16:24Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 25.5N 89.9W
Location: 310 miles (498 km) to the S (178°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -46°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,590 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 12 knots (~ 13.8mph)
2013JUN19 161500 2.3 1006.6/ +0.0 / 33.0 2.3 2.5 4.0 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -65.36 -49.28 CRVBND N/A 19.58 94.58 FCST
Quoting Ricki13th:


The Upper Low is shear it apart it also looks like it will stick around for the rest of the month. Once the MJO pulse comes back to this region it may lift north allowing lighter winds aloft.
I think is normal for this time of the year.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A buoy off Veracruz is reporting sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 35 mph. Considering this is well away from the tight center of circulation and not within any storms, it's a good chance the winds in the storms over the center are sustained tropical storm-force.



Station VERV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.202N 96.113W
06/19/2013 1600 UTC
Winds: N (350) at 27.0 kts gusting to 29.9
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.0 F
Quoting bappit:

What buoy? Those could be local winds from thunderstorm down drafts. Dunno without a link.

3 Buoys in the area.

Link

Link

Link
Quoting bappit:

What buoy? Those could be local winds from thunderstorm down drafts. Dunno without a link.

Link

Sustained at 35 mph now.
nice tropical wave
Quoting stormchaser19:


EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.202N 96.113W
06/19/2013 1600 UTC
Winds: N (350°) at 27.0 kts gusting to 29.9
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.0 °F
Station VERV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.202N 96.113W
06/19/2013 1600 UTC
Winds: N (350°) at 27.0 kts gusting to 29.9
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.0 °F


Conditions at SACV4 as of
(11:00 am CDT)
1600 GMT on 06/19/2013:

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.2 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 31.1 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 33.0 kts
Quoting hurricanes2018:
nice tropical wave
Wave:

wave:
The MJO pulse is looking rather strong this time around; 2 storms possibly could form out of this. Leading to an active July.



Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The TUTT is well defined.


It reminds me of 2011... when many T waves turned NW in response to the persistent TUTT north of Lesser Antilles. That pattern brought us above average rainfall that year.
Quoting Gearsts:
Wave:

wave:

Nice plain looking wave here
I'll say it'll be about 45 minutes to a hour before we find out the result of the first pass.
Not even a drop for me yet.
MJO Forecast June 18 to July 3:

St Croix is lucky...

Link
Quoting Gearsts:
Not even a drop for me yet.


I think later this afternoon and evening it will reach you.
12z GFS doesn't have anything important that develops in North Atlantic basin on medium to long range.
Quoting CaribBoy:
St Croix is lucky...

Link
dont worry my friend here in st.thomas we havent gotten alot either your might be around the corner
Quoting Ricki13th:
MJO Forecast June 18 to July 3:


Notice the the the concentration of it over the EPAC and Caribbean and some upward motion over Africa. Waves getting more support as they enter the Atlantic this will also cut down the SAL dust over the Eastern Atlantic.
Quoting CaribBoy:
St Croix is lucky...

Link


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1205 PM AST WED JUN 19 2013

VIC010-191800-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0147.130619T1605Z-130619T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
1205 PM AST WED JUN 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 200 PM AST

* AT 1159 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN
COMBINATION WITH THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THEREFORE
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL 200 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1774 6458 1768 6474 1769 6480 1767 6490
1767 6491 1770 6489 1776 6490 1778 6488
1777 6483 1779 6478 1779 6474 1776 6471
1778 6466 1776 6456

$$

AAS
12Z GFS shows another wave for early next week and it looks pretty similar to the current one.

Quoting junie1:
dont worry my friend here in st.thomas we havent gotten alot either your might be around the corner


Have you been dry so far this month?
Hello everyone and welcome to the 2013 season

Pretty vigorous tropical wave here in Puerto Rico (Ponce)

Will go surfing this afternoon

Gusts of at least 30mph+

Quoting CaribBoy:
12Z GFS shows another wave for early next week and it looks pretty similar to the current one.

Looks like a pretty decent storm over the EPAC. 
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1205 PM AST WED JUN 19 2013

VIC010-191800-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0147.130619T1605Z-130619T1800Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
1205 PM AST WED JUN 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 200 PM AST

* AT 1159 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN
COMBINATION WITH THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...THEREFORE
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL 200 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1774 6458 1768 6474 1769 6480 1767 6490
1767 6491 1770 6489 1776 6490 1778 6488
1777 6483 1779 6478 1779 6474 1776 6471
1778 6466 1776 6456

$$

AAS


The island will look greener after the rain..
Quoting CaribBoy:


Have you been dry so far this month?
Its not been that bad ever since may weve finally gotten some much needed rain on and off
I'll give TD 2 a greater than 50% chance of becoming a 50 mph TS... and if it does, a less than 50% chance of Veracruz stations recording 50 mph sustained winds.
BUT - I think those stations will come closer matching those winds than did with H Karl which was rapidly in decline, no data at landfall supported it being a Cat 3...
Quoting junie1:
Its not been that bad ever since may weve finally gotten some much needed rain on and off


Same for us... but I won't say NO to MORE RAIN :))
LOL rain is trolling me!
The only reason the tropical wave over the northern Lesser Antilles is firing any convective activity is the presence of a mid to upper-level low to the west providing for plenty of divergence aloft.

I can't keep my eyes open waiting for the @NOAA_HurrHunter to make their 1st pass I predict we'll have TS Barry after that 1st pass. g'night
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The only reason the tropical wave over the northern Lesser Antilles is firing any convective activity is the presence of a mid to upper-level low to the west providing for plenty of divergence aloft.



There's also a pretty decent CCKW moving through that area as well. This Kelvin wave is also what helped 02L flare up in the Caribbean.

A rare cloud-free view of Alaska:



On most days, relentless rivers of clouds wash over Alaska, obscuring most of the state's 6,640 miles (10,690 kilometers) of coastline and 586,000 square miles (1,518,000 square kilometers) of land. The south coast of Alaska even has the dubious distinction of being the cloudiest region of the United States, with some locations averaging more than 340 cloudy days per year.

That was certainly not the case on June 17, 2013, the date that the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite acquired this rare, nearly cloud-free view of the state. The absence of clouds exposed a striking tapestry of water, ice, land, forests, and even wildfires.

The same ridge of high pressure that cleared Alaska's skies also brought stifling temperatures to many areas accustomed to chilly June days. Talkeetna, a town about 100 miles north of Anchorage, saw temperatures reach 96°F (36°C) on June 17. Other towns in southern Alaska set all-time record highs, including Cordova, Valez, and Seward. The high temperatures also helped fuel wildfires and hastened the breakup of sea ice in the Chukchi Sea.

Source: NASA
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The only reason the tropical wave over the northern Lesser Antilles is firing any convective activity is the presence of a mid to upper-level low to the west providing for plenty of divergence aloft.


And there's a whole lot of nothing going on at the surface.
Link
2nd mission in the GOM.

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 16:53Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: 130619144935306 (2 digit year/2 digit month/2 digit day/6 digit mission start time/Last 3 digits of aircraft tail number)
Date Mission Started: June 19th in '13
Time Mission Started: 14:49:35Z
Observation Number: 04

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 19th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 28.0N 86.8W
Location: 165 miles (266 km) to the SSW (205°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1017mb (30.03 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.0°C (82.4°F) Approximately 23°C (73°F) 225° (from the SW) 5 knots (6 mph)
1000mb 151m (495 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 240° (from the WSW) 5 knots (6 mph)
925mb 836m (2,743 ft) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 18.4°C (65.1°F) 285° (from the WNW) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 1,566m (5,138 ft) 17.4°C (63.3°F) 12.8°C (55.0°F) 295° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph)
700mb 3,201m (10,502 ft) 7.4°C (45.3°F) Approximately 0°C (32°F) 270° (from the W) 22 knots (25 mph)
500mb 5,890m (19,324 ft) -6.9°C (19.6°F) Approximately -26°C (-15°F) 260° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph)
400mb 7,600m (24,934 ft) -17.7°C (0.1°F) -17.7°C (0.1°F) 230° (from the SW) 18 knots (21 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 16:16Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Location of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 28.03N 86.85W
Time of Highest Altitude where wind was reported: 16:16:56Z

Location of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 28.04N 86.81W
Time of Lowest Altitude where wind was reported: 16:27:03Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 235° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 265° (from the W)
- Wind Speed: 12 knots (14 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 398mb to 1017mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 07520

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1017mb (Surface) 28.0°C (82.4°F) Approximately 23°C (73°F)
966mb 23.8°C (74.8°F) 22.3°C (72.1°F)
850mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) 12.8°C (55.0°F)
810mb 15.4°C (59.7°F) Approximately 9°C (48°F)
794mb 15.2°C (59.4°F) Approximately 0°C (32°F)
781mb 14.2°C (57.6°F) Approximately 7°C (45°F)
768mb 13.6°C (56.5°F) Approximately 1°C (34°F)
745mb 11.6°C (52.9°F) Approximately 6°C (43°F)
703mb 7.6°C (45.7°F) Approximately 2°C (36°F)
696mb 7.2°C (45.0°F) Approximately -2°C (28°F)
688mb 6.4°C (43.5°F) 4.5°C (40.1°F)
593mb -1.9°C (28.6°F) -4.3°C (24.3°F)
578mb -2.3°C (27.9°F) Approximately -10°C (14°F)
574mb -2.5°C (27.5°F) Approximately -18°C (-0°F)
569mb -2.5°C (27.5°F) Approximately -14°C (7°F)
561mb -2.7°C (27.1°F) Approximately -28°C (-18°F)
552mb -3.3°C (26.1°F) Approximately -17°C (1°F)
547mb -3.7°C (25.3°F) Approximately -25°C (-13°F)
510mb -5.7°C (21.7°F) Approximately -26°C (-15°F)
473mb -10.3°C (13.5°F) Approximately -26°C (-15°F)
468mb -10.9°C (12.4°F) Approximately -20°C (-4°F)
461mb -11.3°C (11.7°F) Approximately -30°C (-22°F)
450mb -12.3°C (9.9°F) Approximately -35°C (-31°F)
416mb -11.3°C (11.7°F) Approximately -35°C (-31°F)
398mb Unavailable

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1017mb (Surface) 225° (from the SW) 5 knots (6 mph)
886mb 290° (from the WNW) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 295° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph)
776mb 295° (from the WNW) 21 knots (24 mph)
754mb 275° (from the W) 20 knots (23 mph)
677mb 255° (from the WSW) 17 knots (20 mph)
587mb 275° (from the W) 15 knots (17 mph)
573mb 255° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
506mb 255° (from the WSW) 11 knots (13 mph)
472mb 275° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph)
447mb 240° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
417mb 250° (from the WSW) 16 knots (18 mph)
398mb 230° (from the SW) 18 knots (21 mph)



Goodnight
Well, plenty of rain for my country the next week or so.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is there a rapid scan loop for the TD?
Wow.great blog

Although I think Marco is the smallest storm ever on Earth.
Cyclone Tracy is no match to our Kung Fu...lol.

Quoting hurricanes2018:
Providing a lot of rain for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
Easterly winds are evident as recon approaches.
2013JUN19 164500 2.4 1005.8/ +0.0 / 34.0 2.4 2.5 4.0 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -66.26 -55.45 CRVBND N/A 19.57 94.61 FCST
As far as 02L, the satellite appearance is still somewhat ragged, and the presence of lower-level outflow boundaries in the northwestern quadrant isn't helping the situation. Nevertheless, upper-level conditions should slowly begin to improve with the development of an anticyclone aloft...so I could definitely see 02L becoming a 40-45kt tropical cyclone prior to landfall tomorrow.

I'd bet on Barry by this evening as long as the convection doesn't wane excessively.

I hate it when you're working in an electrical panel and this happens...


Only kidding! Just another 'plug' (pun intended!) for my post on Surge Protection. Make sure you're protected, and as I discovered, not just from hurricanes or electrical storms...it's every day all day! Everyone should know this stuff.
td2 looks like a td still on vis. image we will see shortly
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
AF308 is to the BOC & descending into 02L.
,