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TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


ATCF


Ah, thanks.
Thanks dfw
Way too soon to say adj13.
Same TC2 with Wndcur=30kt and 1006mb central pressure for the model guidance.

Possible that the dvorak has jumped the gun a bit, unless they change it later on.

All to be revealed in a couple o' hours.
Looks to me like the NHC has moved the track to the left three times so far...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




very nice anim!
Oh well. Time to continue on with storm preparations for the house/yard. Check back w/ya'll later...
Quoting mikatnight:
Looks to me like the NHC has moved the track to the left three times so far...


"business as usual" or BAU
3510. FMDawg
I have a little off topic question. What are these "waves coming off Africa" doing while they are over Africa? Is it just their rainy season and these are just constant torrential downpours? Sorry in advance if this is a stupid question.
Quoting StormW:


I'm on my way out the door...however I think what you may be referring to is...WU has the GFSX...extended range model which goes out to like 14-16 days.


Thanks SW! I'll check back later. Have a great day all!
Final moments of the 0,0,0 2009 Hurricane Season condition are now winding down... {sniff...}

It was way cool while it lasted! :)
Quoting CycloneOz:


Did I miss a meteor show on a totally clear night by spending it refreshing screens for the NHC and Navy NRL?

OMG...


in trekkie fashion: "you are not alone"
Quoting CycloneOz:
Final moments of the 0,0,0 2009 Hurricane Season condition are now winding down... {sniff...}

It was way cool while it lasted! :)

It looks like it might go to
2,1,1 in a week or so. ;)
Quoting alaina1085:
Morning all.

See I didnt miss much last night.

How is everyone? Whats everyone thinking?

Good Evening Alaina.
Great update as always StormW


latest vis 1215 utc
02L/TD/A
what is the cmc showing hitting tx in 6 days storm
3519. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:
Final moments of the 0,0,0 2009 Hurricane Season condition are now winding down... {sniff...}

It was way cool while it lasted! :)


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.
Quoting heliluv2trac:
what is the cmc showing hitting tx in 6 days storm


Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.
@3484
Quoting IKE:

Remarkable is the well synchron distance between those 3 "Spots".
Quoting IKE:


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.

Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.
thanks
Quoting IKE:


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.

Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.


How strong does the model have it? Texas could use a drought-buster.
Ike, I know it is to far out but what is your gut feeling as far as where this one will head?(G.O.M or eastern seaboard)
3524. slavp
Quoting IKE:


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.

Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.
Looks to be coming off of the Yucatan...As long as the other models don't start picking up on it we're alright.....I Hope...Lol
3525. srada
Good Morning Everyone,

there is currently a low pressure sitting over NC..when this moves off land..does this have the potential to become tropical?
CMC has hurricane hitting Louisiana

Quoting IKE:


Champagne is on ice.....0-0-0 is about over.

Unfortunately.

Wave moving through the islands now. It's heading WNW toward the GOM/bath water.


Ike do you really think something will spin up? Seems it would have to do some rapid intensification to do so. I know SST's are oober warm in GOM now, how is the shear forcast to be?
Quoting RitaEvac:
CMC has hurricane hitting Louisiana


thats what left of the wave currently around 55 ish
so in about 7 days is when showdown begins with these storms either hit or miss
Houston NWS...

LONG RANGE MODELS PICKING UP ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE CUBA/
FLORIDA STRAITS NEXT FRIDAY. 0Z CANADIAN WANTING TO DEVELOP AND
TAKE A WEAK STORM INTO SABINE BY MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW WITH THIS SOLUTION SINCE 12Z HAD NO
SIGN OF THIS FEATURE. GETTING INTO THAT TIME OF YEAR...NHC HAS LOW
PROB OF FORMATION WITH THE TWO WAVES OVER LESSER ANTILLES WHILE
CURVING TD #2 AS A WEAK TS TOWARDS BERMUDA. 31

Ummm. What 12Z? Is todays out already? The CMC I was watching before yesterday had this low on it for days. It just showed up on the short range CMC yesterday. By Sabine, I think he means Sabine Pass?
3531. srada
Good Morning Everyone,

there is currently a low pressure sitting over NC..when this moves off land..does this have the potential to become tropical?

and if it does..could this play a part in TD2 track?
3532. IKE
Quoting claimsadjuster:
Ike, I know it is to far out but what is your gut feeling as far as where this one will head?(G.O.M or eastern seaboard)


I think it's 50-50...ECMWF camp is further west. GFS curves it.

Quoting Adjuster13:
Good Morning Weather Geeks!: My first post on here is in the form of a question. I am a Cat Adjuster and based on all the different information out there, where do I need to pack the motor home to go to for Ana or Bill?

Go to Los Angeles
Quoting RitaEvac:
CMC has hurricane hitting Louisiana



Any more models jumpin on this band wagon? I dont doubt it could happen, but im just curious.
3535. IKE
Quoting alaina1085:


Ike do you really think something will spin up? Seems it would have to do some rapid intensification to do so. I know SST's are oober warm in GOM now, how is the shear forcast to be?


It could in the GOM.

CMC...GFS...UKMET show something. CMC is aggressive...GFS and UKMET aren't as much.
Morning everyone.

Could someone please tell me when DMax and Dmin takes place?
3537. slavp
Quoting AussieStorm:

Go to Los Angeles
Just be prepared for earthquakes
02LTWO.30kts-1006mb-144N-333W.100pc.jpg | A little jog to the south looks like. How will this affect the path. Chances for it to enter the Caribbean please, anyone ?
3539. ackee
quick vote who thinks we see TSAna by 11pm
I vote yes..t.s. ana by 11
3542. MahFL
For those people who keep saying the COC is displaced east, thats wrong, the convection is displaced west due to easterly shear of about 15 knots. The center of system is the center of circulation, not necessarly the deep convection.
When shear is low they will both line up and you get a stronger system, most of the time....
Quoting srada:
Good Morning Everyone,

there is currently a low pressure sitting over NC..when this moves off land..does this have the potential to become tropical?

and if it does..could this play a part in TD2 track?


I think Stormw mentioned this in his blog today.
i think by td2 not developing as fast it will go farther west i think a gom track is more reasonable
Good Morning everyone. I really hope nothing gets into the GOM. We really don't need that. I mean last year it was detestation in TX. And then before that Katrina,Wilma,Rita and so on.

Sheri
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
02LTWO.30kts-1006mb-144N-333W.100pc.jpg | A little jog to the south looks like. How will this affect the path. Chances for it to enter the Caribbean please, anyone ?


It's there, it's moving west, and it's in 14N35W approx... typically a system that far out that north goes up to the north atlantic.

notice "typically"
911

WHXX01 KWBC 121238

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1238 UTC WED AUG 12 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (AL022009) 20090812 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200 090814 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.4N 33.3W 14.7N 35.2W 15.1N 37.8W 15.9N 40.6W

BAMD 14.4N 33.3W 14.8N 35.7W 15.3N 38.4W 16.2N 41.2W

BAMM 14.4N 33.3W 14.9N 35.3W 15.4N 37.7W 16.2N 40.3W

LBAR 14.4N 33.3W 14.8N 35.6W 15.2N 38.4W 16.1N 41.4W

SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS

DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090814 1200 090815 1200 090816 1200 090817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.6N 43.7W 18.6N 50.6W 21.8N 57.8W 25.5N 63.3W

BAMD 17.1N 43.9W 19.3N 48.9W 22.0N 53.9W 25.3N 57.1W

BAMM 16.9N 43.0W 18.8N 49.1W 21.5N 55.7W 25.1N 60.8W

LBAR 17.0N 44.3W 19.5N 49.9W 23.0N 54.9W 27.2N 59.3W

SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS 48KTS

DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 49KTS 48KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 31.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 29.0W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Quoting KimberlyB:
Morning everyone.

Could someone please tell me when DMax and Dmin takes place?

Dmax is night and Dmin is day
3549. srada
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think Stormw mentioned this in his blog today.


Thanks for the info! I will definetly read his blog
Morning all!

The wave coming off the coast behind TD2 is HUGE. lol
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think Stormw mentioned this in his blog today.

From StormW's blog:
We may want to watch off the SEUS coast during this upcoming week, as a trof spilt is forecast, and we could have a piece of energy stall of the SEUS coast
Thanks Ike
Just in case anyone didn't see.
12/1145 UTC 14.3N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 02L

We should have Ana, just waiting to 11.
everything is based on models right now all i see for sure now is lots of dry air and a td that seems to be having organizational problems
Quoting srada:


Thanks for the info! I will definetly read his blog


You'r welcome.
i wonder if weatherstudent is in school
Quoting AussieStorm:

Dmax is night and Dmin is day


Ok. So basically a sunset, sunrise situation then?

I noticed someone mention that they believe the COC has relocated west, into the convection. Does anyone else believe that has or is occurring?
Quoting hondaguy:
Morning all!

The wave coming off the coast behind TD2 is HUGE. lol


I was just saying that myself. LOL.
3559. MahFL
Sat pic

Sat pic

When it moves more west use this one.

Closer sat pic

Later I will post more zoomed in pages.
Quoting heliluv2trac:
i wonder if weatherstudent is in school


Sleeping probly, he says he doesnt start school till around the 24th. LOL. Now I dont know if thats true or not, just what he said the other day.
Ike, that's the same little wave that's been meandering along quietly for about a week now, right?
Quoting KimberlyB:


Ok. So basically a sunset, sunrise situation then?

I noticed someone mention that they believe the COC has relocated west, into the convection. Does anyone else believe that has or is occurring?
wind shear is pushing the convection west of the CoC. When they realign there will be more firing of convection
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I really hope nothing gets into the GOM. We really don't need that. I mean last year it was detestation in TX. And then before that Katrina,Wilma,Rita and so on.

Sheri


Good Morning Sheri: Whats your opinion on "Where to?"
I think it'll be a close call. Dvorak (and ADT) says it is a TS, the Windsat is picking up 35-40kt barbs on the eastern side and so on. But, the computer guidance still says 30kts and it doesn't have the best outward appearance with the convection displaced a bit.

Wouldn't be surprised either way.
Quoting AussieStorm:
wind shear is pushing the convection west of the CoC. When they realign there will be more firing of convection


Thank you!
3567. P451
Can anyone link me to current TCHP images for the Atlantic?

I like the ones that look like this:



I just cannot seem to find any CURRENT ones anywhere.

Thanks in advance.

3568. ackee
IT WOULD be funny to see all models be wrong about bill affecting LAND forms early head out sea
The ADT center position seems a bit too far displaced from the convection compared to the other estimates and the 12z estimate.
It wouldn't surprise me if they say - as a compromise - something like: Max winds are near 35mph with higher gusts, but could become a tropical storm at any time.

We'll see.
3571. IKE
Quoting redwagon:
Ike, that's the same little wave that's been meandering along quietly for about a week now, right?


Yup.
On TD2 you can see the center is still to the east on visible satellite, but the organization and higher cloud tops are now closer to the center.
Quoting Adjuster13:


Good Morning Sheri: Whats your opinion on "Where to?"

I really have no ideal. I mainly just lurk and read. There are some very very smart folks on here. I mean there's StormW,Ike,Weather456,Tampaspin,and some others. They will answer your questions. I am still learning myself.

Sheri
3574. P451
Wow, TD2 is really getting sheared from the East I guess. It's LLC is left behind. Meanwhile the "Bill Wave" and associated African surge that caught it - appears like it has a chance to catch TD2 in the coming days.

Meanwhile, MODIS caught the central African wave:




It's the right-most one of the two shown in the following image.



Hopefully MODIS will catch the left-most one and then the "Bill Wave" and hopefully TD2 later today. It's hit or miss with the polar satellites but their resolution is awesome.
3575. Drakoen
Just looked over the models dangerous GFS and ECMWF model runs. ECMWF is further south than it's previous run.
Quoting P451:
Can anyone link me to current TCHP images for the Atlantic?

I like the ones that look like this:



I just cannot seem to find any CURRENT ones anywhere.

Thanks in advance.

those TCHP maps are no longer updated till further notice you have to use google earth TCHP maps for current info
Quoting catastropheadjuster:

I really have no ideal. I mainly just lurk and read. There are some very very smart folks on here. I mean there's StormW,Ike,Weather456,Tampaspin,and some others. They will answer your questions. I am still learning myself.

Sheri


Sheri, do you do cat work? And who do you work for? I do and that is why I ask.
3578. IKE
Wave going through the islands is going through 20-30 knots of shear today....looks more favorable in a day or 2....

3579. P451
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
those TCHP maps are no longer updated till further notice you have to use google earth TCHP maps for current info


Crap. Alright, thanks.
morning everyone...has anyone noticed the canadian model?? WTH is that coming off the yucatan?? is this from that blob in the carrib?
good morning guys talk to me
3582. ackee
the wave of the coast seem to be further north than models been hinting anythoughts
3583. afj3
Hello everyone
I'm a novice at this but is the GFS taking TD2 over South Florida?
Greetings...from South Fla
This is an in case you needed to know post...For those following the GFS; I found this.. GFS (National Weather Service Global Forecast System) is the main meteorological model for the United States. The model is run four times a day (six hours apart). It is a merger and expansion of the AVN and MRF models and is extended out to 384 hours.
New convection going off directly over the center.

We may have Ana at 11

3586. ackee
Quoting Drakoen:
Just looked over the models dangerous GFS and ECMWF model runs. ECMWF is further south than it's previous run.
can u show a link to this
I hope we don't get this
3589. cg2916
Just in case anyone hasn't noticed, the SSD put the Dvorak at T2.5/2.5.
Roger that!
Quoting claimsadjuster:


Sheri, do you do cat work? And who do you work for? I do and that is why I ask.


Hey, We will get banned talking about this in DrM's blog. So I sent you mail. But we can't really say sent mail. I don't want to get banned. I really like it here. I promise i am not being mean. It's just the rules in here. And some folks will flag you.

Sheri
Quoting AussieStorm:
I hope we don't get this
refresh my memory....what the heck is that??!!!
Anybody seen the latest CMC? What is that smacking into Texas?


Quoting Drakoen:
Just looked over the models dangerous GFS and ECMWF model runs. ECMWF is further south than it's previous run.


I hope the models are wrong. Our local mets all seem very concerned already.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I hope we don't get this


Thats a time sequence of Andrew.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Thats a time sequence of Andrew.


Be careful using that name...someone yells at me every time I do.
Vorticity slowly but surely increasing.

I don't see an exposed center anymore. Looks to be right on the edge of the convection.
3599. Drakoen
Quoting ackee:
can u show a link to this

Link
3600. WxLogic
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z



Models starting to agreed on a stronger Bermuda High at the end of the period... as you can see by the left turn of the last 1 to 2 points.
3601. cg2916
Quoting nuggsgalore:
Anybody seen the latest CMC? What is that smacking into Texas?



Yeah, I see that.
Is anyone seeing the spin at 42W 11N near TD2?
Right around the NOAA symbol! LOL!
3603. Drakoen
Don't forget:

000
NOUS42 KWNO 111726
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1714Z TUE AUG 11 2009

NEW NOAA NWS NCEP SUPERCOMPUTER IMPLEMENTATION UPDATE

AS THE FINAL TEST OF THE NEW SUPERCOMPUTERS..NCEP IS PLANNING
TO DISSEMINATE ALL 12Z CYCLE PRODUCTS OPERATIONALLY FROM THE
NEW STRATUS SUPERCOMPUTER IN GAITHERSBURG ON AUGUST 12...IF
THE TEST GOES WELL THEN WE WILL DECLARE STRATUS OPERATIONAL
AT 18Z ON AUGUST 12 AND NCEP PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN ON
STRATUS.

ORIGINALLY..THE ADVERTISED PLAN WAS FOR THE NEW SUPERCOMPUTERS
TO BE DECLARED OPERATIONAL ON AUGUST 18, HOWEVER WITH THE
ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC
NEXT WEEK NCEP NCO HAS DECIDED TO IMPLEMENT THE NEW
SUPERCOMPUTER ON AUGUST 12 IF POSSIBLE IN ORDER TO MINIMIZE
THE EFFECT OF THE TRANSITION ON NWS OPERATIONS.

AS WITH PREVIOUS UPGRADES...THE MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE
NEW COMPUTER MAY BE DISCONTINUOUS FROM THOSE PRODUCED ON THE
OLD COMPUTER/PREVIOUS CYCLE ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 5. WHY?
THE HARDWARE/COMPILERS USED BY THE TWO COMPUTERS DIFFER AND
THE DATA DECODERS/ASSIMILATION SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
INDEPENDENTLY ON EACH SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL CREATE
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN MODEL INITIAL CONDITIONS CAUSED BY
ASSIMILATING DIFFERENT AMOUNTS OF DATA AND USING SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT FIRST GUESS FIELDS. SMALL NON-METEOROLOGICAL
DIFFERENCES EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO RANDOM NOISE - TRIGGERING
CONVECTION IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AT DIFFERENT TIMES.
THESE TYPES OF DIFFERENCES GROW QUICKLY AND TEND TO
SATURATE AFTER A FEW HOURS OF MODEL TIME. AVERAGED OVER A
LARGE NUMBER OF CASES THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT ONE MACHINE
IS BETTER THAN THE OTHER...OR DIFFERENT IN ANY OTHER
SYSTEMATIC WAY.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I hope the models are wrong. Our local mets all seem very concerned already.


Morning All

The pattern taking shape warrants and extra twist in your cheeks.
3605. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
Just looked over the models dangerous GFS and ECMWF model runs. ECMWF is further south than it's previous run.


Well have to see how ECMWF does at 12Z if it start agreeing with a more W solution which I wouldn't be surprised off since models have been underestimating the A/B High in long range runs.


Nice looking out flow associated with TD2, looks like we will have Ana by 11am. Really starting look better and better.
3607. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Vorticity slowly but surely increasing.




Very broad area of low pressure which was also confirmed from the satellite derived winds. The GFS showed a broad system forming in the short term that tightens up there after.
Stormchaser 2007 that convection is still on the west side of the center. Did you see the new spin just to the southwest at 42 11?
TD2 Ana, then Bill blob, then one more still inland Africa:

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/eastern-atlantic-ocean-ir-satellite-loop.htm l
Quoting Nolehead:
morning everyone...has anyone noticed the canadian model?? WTH is that coming off the yucatan?? is this from that blob in the carrib?


Wave in the carrib.
3611. MahFL
Some new deep convection is firing up on TD2.
3613. ackee
Quoting Drakoen:

Link
thanks think we see another andrew
TD#2 seems to be sending out water vapor spikes to insulate itself from the dry stable air mass to it's north and west.

It wants to be all that it can be!

I would expect ANA at the 11 AM advisory, both SAB and TAFB have TD2 at 2.5, but I could be wrong.
Drak...have you seen the canadian model yet?? granted it's not the best in the world but where does that come from....the yucatan?? or that blob in teh carrib right now...just very curious...
3617. Drakoen
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1328Z WED AUG 12 2009
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS CURRENTLY ON TIME...
NCEP IS CURRENTLY SENDING OUT PRODUCTS FROM THE NEW STRATUS
SUPERCOMPUTER
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS
FAI/70261 - 10159
RNK/72318 - SHORT TO 571MB
CUU/76225 - 10142
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
3618. cg2916
We will likely have Ana at 11 AM, because the SSD Dvorak numbers are 2.5, which mean 35 knots, which means 40 mph.
3619. Drakoen
Quoting Nolehead:
Drak...have you seen the canadian model yet?? granted it's not the best in the world but where does that come from....the yucatan?? or that blob in teh carrib right now...just very curious...



Yea I have seen it. It comes from the area near the Lesser Antilles.
And holy cow...look at the Gulf of Mexico!

That's a TC spa treatment if I've ever seen one!

Can someone please provide a link for the CMC.

Thanks!
The spin at 42 11 in the ITCZ seems to be the direction pre-Ana is headed.
thanks alaina...kinda what i figured...getting ready to wax up the boards...
Quoting nuggsgalore:
Anybody seen the latest CMC? What is that smacking into Texas?




Yay for the CMC - Constantly Making Cyclones!

I think the "thing" smacking into the TX/LA border is something it spins up either off the stalled front or off the piece of the wave expected to come into the GOM in a few days.
Quoting Drakoen:
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1328Z WED AUG 12 2009
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS CURRENTLY ON TIME...
NCEP IS CURRENTLY SENDING OUT PRODUCTS FROM THE NEW STRATUS
SUPERCOMPUTER
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS
FAI/70261 - 10159
RNK/72318 - SHORT TO 571MB
CUU/76225 - 10142
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP


Finally.
Quoting Nolehead:
thanks alaina...kinda what i figured...getting ready to wax up the boards...


Haha, do your thing.
3627. WxLogic
The new Supercompuer Implementation is happening this AM right? So the 12Z might potentially have some unwanted results in the long range runs.
3628. cg2916
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I would expect ANA at the 11 AM advisory, both SAB and TAFB have TD2 at 2.5, but I could be wrong.

Where are those numbers? I know where the SSD is, but not those.
Quoting Drakoen:
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1328Z WED AUG 12 2009
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS CURRENTLY ON TIME...
NCEP IS CURRENTLY SENDING OUT PRODUCTS FROM THE NEW STRATUS
SUPERCOMPUTER
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
PASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS
FAI/70261 - 10159
RNK/72318 - SHORT TO 571MB
CUU/76225 - 10142
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Are they running the same models on a better computer, or a new model altogether?
You know, it would make sense if TD#2 followed the periphery of that dry air mass, sending it a bit further south as it continues to move mostly due west.

It's only got about 400 miles to go before it hits Shangri-La!

Wow!!!
3630. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:
The new Supercompuer Implementation is happening this AM right? So the 12Z might potentially have some unwanted results in the long range runs.


Correct. The models will be run a bit earlier than normal from what I understand.
It's getting interesting guys/gals.
"There are also two tropical waves churning in the area of the Windward Islands and another just off the coast of Africa.


“We’re not expecting those to become much,” Bragaw said"

That was from our local paper here in Melbourne
3633. cg2916
Are they running the same models on a better computer, or a new model altogether?
3634. A4Guy
Are folks concerend over the model runs for what is now TD2...or what is behind TD2? Looks like the latest runs for TD2 still have a N-ward curve, but too early to say if a high will push it west after day 5.

Just trying to understand where everyone's concern is coming from.

Thanks.
Quoting cg2916:

Where are those numbers? I know where the SSD is, but not those.
Are they running the same models on a better computer, or a new model altogether?

Same models, new computer. It should help to speed up posting the GFS and NAM.
Does anyone see the spin at the ITCZ that seems to be influencing Ana?
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
"There are also two tropical waves churning in the area of the Windward Islands and another just off the coast of Africa.


“We’re not expecting those to become much,” Bragaw said"

That was from our local paper here in Melbourne


Our local mets here in Baton Rouge, LA dont seem too concerned either. Just a wait and see game unfortunately.
So far I've seen model runs this week that takes significant TCs into the following areas:

1) WPB (S. FL)
2) SE TX / SW LA
3) Biloxi (panhandle)

Those are the three areas I selected in June to get hit with a TC this year...perhaps.

May the Models and I be wrong! :)
3639. Drakoen
Quoting jeffs713:

Same models, new computer. It should help to speed up posting the GFS and NAM.


Correct. It will be running faster and harder.
Quoting A4Guy:
Are folks concerend over the model runs for what is now TD2...or what is behind TD2? Looks like the latest runs for TD2 still have a N-ward curve, but too early to say if a high will push it west after day 5.

Just trying to understand where everyone's concern is coming from.

Thanks.


Both. During the tropical season, any storm that has or possibly will develop needs to be watched closely.
3641. slavp
Quoting CycloneOz:
So far I've seen model runs this week that takes significant TCs into the following areas:

1) WPB (S. FL)
2) SE TX / SW LA
3) Biloxi (panhandle)

Those are the three areas I selected in June to get hit with a TC this year...perhaps.

May the Models and I be wrong! :)
Yes, You may be wrong...Matter of fact, you better be wrong!!! LOL
Quoting Drakoen:


Correct. It will be running faster and harder.


Drake if you dont mind me asking, where are you located?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I would expect ANA at the 11 AM advisory, both SAB and TAFB have TD2 at 2.5, but I could be wrong.


I agree. Especially with the WSW motion, as they said yesterday a more southerly solution would allow a stronger cyclone. Warmer SST's down a little further as well.
If you take a look at the 200 mb spaghetti, pretty deep trough develops around August 21. If this verifies then "Bill" would be deflected out to sea. (Give it a few seconds to load)

Link
3645. cg2916
Quoting Drakoen:


Correct. It will be running faster and harder.

Will it be more accurate?
For fellow Texans, here's what Bob Rose, LCRA says about next week (which the CMC probably sees, too):
-------------------------
As I mentioned earlier, we may see some small changes sometime late next week when a large trough of low pressure develops over the eastern half of the US. The trough will force a cold front into Texas sometime next Thursday or Friday, possibly bringing a chance for rain along with slightly lower temperatures. ***The upper high is forecast to be pushed to the south. Yea! *** Seriously, it will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves late next week.
---------
http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/weather/weather_column.html
3647. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:


Correct. The models will be run a bit earlier than normal from what I understand.


Good... let's hope everything goes well with the upgrade and starting at 00Z tonight we'll be having quick posting of models on the web.
Steering Layer 700-850 hPa
3649. ackee
Quoting Drakoen:


Correct. It will be running faster and harder.
so the last model runs by the GFS was wrong ?
3650. Drakoen
Quoting alaina1085:


Drake if you dont mind me asking, where are you located?


South Florida
3651. Drakoen
Quoting ackee:
so the last model runs by the GFS was wrong ?



No.
3652. eddye
eveyone td 2 could be a south fl threat south fla could hit byis a catgory 1 from td 2 and it becoming really organized but it too early too tell
Quoting jeffs713:

Same models, new computer. It should help to speed up posting the GFS and NAM.


I don't expect any significant affect on time. It does increase their capacity greatly. So far, results are coming out about 1 minute sooner than average for the NAM. You can monitor from this site http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/index.html#TARGET
looks like models are predicting a hit for pr
Really am surprised that we still don't have Tropical Storm Ana, but can understand why considering the partially exposed circulation and low SAB and TAFB satellite estimates during the night. Could be wrong again, but given the new estimates from the SAB and TAFB at 2.5, we should have Tropical Storm Ana like a few have stated.
Quoting CycloneOz:
So far I've seen model runs this week that takes significant TCs into the following areas:

1) WPB (S. FL)
2) SE TX / SW LA
3) Biloxi (panhandle)

Those are the three areas I selected in June to get hit with a TC this year...perhaps.

May the Models and I be wrong! :)


BILOXI??? shhhhhhhhhhh!
3657. Drakoen
74 pages lol
3658. WxLogic
It is my understanding that algorithm hasn't been changed in any form... so I won't expect accuracy will be impacted... just the digestion process of the data and output of it will be quicker. So a 12Z run will actually be very close to 12Z instead of waiting until 15Z or 16Z for models to come out...
I don't think circulation will remain partially exposed for long. Looking at the last couple frames of the Dvorak, it looks like it's trying damn hard to develop convection on the southern eastern sides. You can see a couple bands that are wrapping around and starting to pop. Should be interesting if it can keep it up.
3660. A4Guy
looks to me like the COC of TD2 is just a bit south of the latest forecast track. anyone else see taht (looking at RGB Vis loop).
Link

Looks like hi-level moisture from Maka is giving ex-Felicia a boost this morning...
3662. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:
It is my understanding that algorithm hasn't been changed in any form... so I won't expect accuracy will be impacted... just the digestion process of the data and output of it will be quicker. So a 12Z run will actually be very close to 12Z instead of waiting until 15Z or 16Z for models to come out...


"EMC HAS BEEN MONITORING THE MODEL SUITE RUNNING ON THE NEW
COMPUTER AND RESULTS HAVE SHOWN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE IN SKILL SCORE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED SINCE THE MODELING SUITE HAS NOT CHANGED."
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


TD2

AOI
Quoting A4Guy:
looks to me like the COC of TD2 is just a bit south of the latest forecast track. anyone else see taht (looking at RGB Vis loop).


I agree, but JUST south.
3665. cg2916
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Really am surprised that we still don't have Tropical Storm Ana, but can understand why considering the partially exposed circulation and low SAB and TAFB satellite estimates during the night. Could be wrong again, but given the new estimates from the SAB and TAFB at 2.5, we should have Tropical Storm Ana like a few have stated.

Well, at 5 AM, the Dvorak numbers were 2.0, so that's why we don't have Ana yet.
3666. Drakoen
TD2's low is nearly exposed
3667. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:


"EMC HAS BEEN MONITORING THE MODEL SUITE RUNNING ON THE NEW
COMPUTER AND RESULTS HAVE SHOWN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE IN SKILL SCORE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS
. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED SINCE THE MODELING SUITE HAS NOT CHANGED."


LOL... that proves it.
Ok, I'm still not getting the model changes, so what exactly are we going to see on them this afternoon?
Attention: The welcome mat has been removed from the GOM. All storms must proceed to the right.
Drak,
Did you see the spin near 42 11?

3671. cg2916
Wow... there's a new comment every 24 seconds. This blog is active.
No Tropical Storm yet, basically because the depression is getting some easterly shear which is why the center is exposed.
Quoting reedzone:
Ok, I'm still not getting the model changes, so what exactly are we going to see on them this afternoon?


There are no model changes, they are just running on a new computer. Expect them at the same time as usual.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Mornin' Doug. Pretty impressive line of tropicality starting to rev up, huh?



No doubt, its getting interesting!
Quoting BiloxiIsle:
Attention: The welcome mat has been removed from the GOM. All storms must proceed to the right.

about 1000miles to the right
3676. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


There are no model changes, they are just running on a new computer. Expect them at the same time as usual.


At least I'm hoping for a quicker output... I hope we "public" can benefit out of it... I know NWS will definitely see the benefits but sure hope we see a more timely posting.
3678. Drakoen
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Drak,
Did you see the spin near 42 11?



Yes but development not expected.
3675. That works for me!
Quoting CycloneOz:
So far I've seen model runs this week that takes significant TCs into the following areas:

1) WPB (S. FL)
2) SE TX / SW LA
3) Biloxi (panhandle)

Those are the three areas I selected in June to get hit with a TC this year...perhaps.

May the Models and I be wrong! :)


I didn't know Biloxi had a panhandle. We have a peninsula. Are you thinking of Florida's panhandle? What model are you looking at? Can you provide a link?
Everybody says Ivan was a Florida storm when the eye made landfall in gulf shores, AL and mobile, AL had 100 mph sustained winds.
Guys,

The DVORAK readings just came out about 2 hours ago. The advisory came out 4 hours ago, in the verge of another update....so we'll see but most likely it will be Tropical Storm Ana!


000
WTNT42 KNHC 120835
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...ALTHOUGH
RECENTLY THIS CLUSTER HAS TAKEN ON A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED APPEARANCE.
MICROWAVE AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER REMAINS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AND NOT WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
THAT VALUE."

So it's def..being used in their discussions!

Slight southern movement.

Quoting java162:


tropicality??????





Its technical, you prolly wouln't understand.



:)
It seems like Ana won't be called at 11
my guess in ana at 5
My opinion om the current set of factors? I must quote the great Jeff Spicoli by saying, "I don't know!"
Quoting BiloxiIsle:
Attention: The welcome mat has been removed from the GOM. All storms must proceed to the right.


The welcome mat may have been pulled, but someone's left all the doors wide-open!
Can someone post a link to the latest CMC... someone said that it was taking something into SETX or SWLA
Quoting CycloneOz:


The welcome mat may have been pulled, but someone's left all the door wide-open!

and also left the spa running with the heater on too.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Slight southern movement.



I would say a solid WSW movement for well over 12 hours now. It's following the periphery...smart one this TD is!
The GFS is taking a strong hurricane further east today. Any chance it would reconfigure west again?
3693. cg2916
Quoting BiloxiIsle:
Attention: The welcome mat has been removed from the GOM. All storms must proceed to the right.

That would be Florida.
3691. Will someone close that darn door. NOW!
Quoting WxLogic:


At least I'm hoping for a quicker output... I hope we "public" can benefit out of it... I know NWS will definitely see the benefits but sure hope we see a more timely posting.


No significant increase in time, http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/index.html#TARGET. They will have more capacity, so that they can add more "runs", for example when the hurricane models are currently run you will get this "WRF NMM preempted by the hurricane model. No WRF NMM graphics available for this hour". In the future, they should be able to run the NMM at the same time.
Quoting Vortex95:
It seems like Ana won't be called at 11


With the T's the way they are, the quickScat showing winds well at TS strength, they don't have much of a reason to not call it Ana.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Can someone post a link to the latest CMC... someone said that it was taking something into SETX or SWLA


Link
it is not good to look at those loops for movement, a microwave imagry is always the way to go for movement though I will say it is moving slightly south of west atm.
Quoting AussieStorm:

and also left the spa running with the heater on too.


Al Gore did it!
3700. gator23
Quoting BayouBorn1965:


I didn't know Biloxi had a panhandle. We have a peninsula. Are you thinking of Florida's panhandle? What model are you looking at? Can you provide a link?


class='blogquote'>Quoting slavp:
Yes, You may be wrong...Matter of fact, you better be wrong!!! LOL
He was the models showed a panhandle hit, a south dade hit but he got one right. SE TX
3701. gator23
.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


With the T's the way they are, the quickScat showing winds well at TS strength, they don't have much of a reason to not call it Ana.

I wouldnt completely agree, with the convection getting sheared to the west, I think they will wait until 2 or 5. We will see, tho.
Quoting CycloneOz:


The welcome mat may have been pulled, but someone's left all the doors wide-open!
Quoting AussieStorm:

and also left the spa running with the heater on too.


What an opportunity for any system that can make it inside.

Use any metaphor you like to describe it!

Bull in a china shop.
Kid in a candy store.
etc....
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

I wouldnt completely agree, with the convection getting sheared to the west, I think they will wait until 2 or 5. We will see, tho.


If they called Barry and Nana, this deserves classification too in my book.
3705. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


No significant increase in time, http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/index.html#TARGET. They will have more capacity, so that they can add more "runs", for example when the hurricane models are currently run you will get this "WRF NMM preempted by the hurricane model. No WRF NMM graphics available for this hour". In the future, they should be able to run the NMM at the same time.


Got it... thx
3706. gator23
Quoting mobilegirl81:
The GFS is taking a strong hurricane further east today. Any chance it would reconfigure west again?

Its possible as forecasts 7 days out are pretty low confidence.
DRAK
i notice a WSW movement wih TD2. is it as a result of the LLC to it's southwest? if that is the case then the models will shift to the left in their next run
TD2 also looks like it has gained some forward speed.
CMC
144 hours

For lack of a better word...

Boom.

no tropical storm at 11am.. no way.
Quoting gator23:
Yes very Likely as model forecasts this far out are pretty low confidence.


Normally don't get crazy until it is out in the Gulf of Mexico. Even with early news of Katrina headed into Florida, we left town for a family visit . . . . only to turn around when we heard the latest advisory had Katrina bombing the Mississippi Gulf Coast, which it did.
3712. cg2916
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CMC
144 hours

For lack of a better word...

Boom.


Are you John Madden? Lol.
3713. Drakoen
Quoting stoormfury:
DRAK
i notice a WSW movement wih TD2. is it as a result of the LLC to it's southwest? if that is the case then the models will shift to the left in their next run


UKMET, GFS, and CMC predict that a WSW dip may occur. These models are on the southern portion of the guidance envelope.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

I wouldnt completely agree, with the convection getting sheared to the west, I think they will wait until 2 or 5. We will see, tho.


The shear would not be a reason for them to not call it plently of ts's have had exposed centers. Now if the shear was a bit stronger than it is atm then maybe they would hold off. Anyways the no ANA at 11 am is my opinion.
Current steering is to the WSW until near 50W then switches to WNW.

A new burst of deep convection near the COC could signal the move to TS status.
Yes but development not expected.

Drak, thanks. Nevertheless, the water vapor loop shows that pre-Ana is going to move near an area of deep moisture, from this area, soon.
Quoting Cotillion:


Al Gore did it!

OMG LOL
Quoting mobilegirl81:
The GFS is taking a strong hurricane further east today. Any chance it would reconfigure west again?



yes it is still about 10-12 days waya it will change severaql times lol
Quoting CycloneOz:


What an opportunity for any system that can make it inside.

Use any metaphor you like to describe it!

Bull in a china shop.
Kid in a candy store.
etc....

Bull in a china shop was busted on Mythbusters. they are actually very careful in close con-finds.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CMC
144 hours

For lack of a better word...

Boom.



I have another word for it but I dont wanna get banned. How powerful, category? is that showing? New to the models.
Stormchaser2007, or anybody, would you see the CMC system recurving off to the LEFT at landfall?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Bull in a china shop was busted on Mythbusters. they are actually very careful in close con-finds.


They're all in supermarkets these days. Was a cow in some Irish supermarket running around before it ran back out. A funny video.

Think it was a cow anyway.
TD2 is going to stay on a due west or just south of west track becuase it is weak. We might be dealing with Ana before Bill. There is no way it will recurve that weak.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Bull in a china shop was busted on Mythbusters. they are actually very careful in close con-finds.


I saw the episode, some carefull stepping bulls.
Quoting cg2916:

Are you John Madden? Lol.


"...tough actin' Tinactin"
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I have another word for it but I dont wanna get banned. How powerful, category? is that showing? New to the models.


Strong Hurricane....maybe a Category 2.

Its not worth analyzing too much because it will likely be gone by the next run.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CMC
144 hours

For lack of a better word...

Boom.


is that 993mb at the center???
NHC will not upgrade to Ana at 11. Their reasoning is an excess of southeasterly shear.
Quoting mobilegirl81:
TD2 is going to stay on a due west or just south of west track becuase it is weak. We might be dealing with Ana before Bill. There is no way it will recurve that weak.


How would we not be dealing with Anna before Bill? LOL
3730. PSL2007
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Strong Hurricane....maybe a Category 2.

Its not worth analyzing too much because it will likely be gone by the next run.


You are so right, lol.
New Blog
Quoting Cotillion:


They're all in supermarkets these days. Was a cow in some Irish supermarket running around before it ran back out. A funny video.

Think it was a cow anyway.

Cow's as in over sized women or cows in a can?
Stormchaser2007: It looks like rain patterns are moving into South Texas finally.
The long range models are just used for some low confidence guidance. Way too early to tell where TD-2 will be in 4-5 days. The general trend has been west with a trickle of some wsw movement as of late.
3735. cg2916
Quoting BeanTech:


"...touch actin' Tinactin"

Hey, BeanTech. I was referring to when someone gets hit really hard. BOOM! This is hit catchphrase: "(Mumbles uncontrollably) Brett Favre (Keeps Mumbling) BOOM!"
3736. gator23
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I have another word for it but I dont wanna get banned. How powerful, category? is that showing? New to the models.

well it is tracking a storm that doesnt exist yet. And it is currently the only model forecasting this scenario. Low confidence.
Quoting redwagon:
Stormchaser2007, or anybody, would you see the CMC system recurving off to the LEFT at landfall?


Its possible

Its not worth analyzing too much because it will likely be gone by the next run.
some models at 8am going more south
3739. gator23
Way too early to tell. This system does not exist yet. Low low low low confidence
ok guy this is what I think TD2 pre-TS ana has moved SW so the models will trend westward and if it trends this way for the next day and a half to two days it could poss. be a caribbean system
3741. cg2916
New blog.
Quoting Drakoen:
TD2's low is nearly exposed


How long does it look like SAL will keep affecting it?
Quoting reedzone:
No Tropical Storm yet, basically because the depression is getting some easterly shear which is why the center is exposed.

I thought shear was really low around TD2 and dry air / SAL was affecting it?
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Link


Thanks
Quoting CycloneOz:


What an opportunity for any system that can make it inside.

Use any metaphor you like to describe it!

Bull in a china shop.
Kid in a candy store.
etc....

Think Charley!
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Drak,
Did you see the spin near 42 11?



Morning All, been watching that all morning, could play a roll in the future of our TD
Ana tomorrow?

000
WTNT32 KNHC 121442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

...DEPRESSION REMAINING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...1015 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 33.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
new update at 11am
3749. juniort
How does TD2 look in terms of effecting the eastern caribbean
Wind shear was 10 knots last night now is going up to 15 knows now by tonight wind shear will go up to 20knots or higher.
Quoting juniort:
How does TD2 look in terms of effecting the eastern caribbean


Looking at the dry air/SAL, TD2 will be dealing with it for at least the next 48 hours. During this time it will most likely continue on a w/sw coarse until it can find some moisture. If it does affect the Carribean, I don't think it will be much of a storm. Maybe a small TS.
3753. juniort
Thank you ineedwind
al is subdued today vanessa she is a sweetheart if i was only young again
last night my buddy from hanalei bay kauai sent me some email saying felicia the winds were just alittle above normal with rain showers he continued writing saying they had more rain last wk i have one other buddy who lives on the beach let you all know how he fared later
CycloneOz - Lurk Mode=On

No telling when I'll turn it off. Find me and my videos / animations on YouTube.

Best Wishes everyone! :)

CycloneOz - Out...

/lurk mode now on