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TD 18: the one to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on September 18, 2005

The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are pretty busy this weekend, writing advisories for two systems in the Atlantic and three in the eastern Pacific. Thankfully, Ophelia is finally gone, but we are watching another wave of the coast of Africa that might develop into a tropical depression. But for now, we can ignore all of these systems except one--Tropical Depression 18, which is expected to build into Tropical Storm Rita later today. The NHC agreed with this assessment last night, taking the unusual step of diverting a hurricane hunter airplane--the mission bound for Philippe was recalled and sent to TD 18 instead. The Florida Keys and Texas are at greatest risk from this developing storm.

Current status of TD 18
TD 18 is over the Turks and Caicos Islands, which one can think of at a western extension of the Bahama Islands. After an initial west-northwest motion last night, TD 18 has settled into a track 10 degrees north of due west which will take her through the Bahama Islands today and tomorrow, and threaten Cuba and the Florida Keys after that. TD 18 is devloping a little faster than Philippe did, and showing some solid deep convection over the center, good spiral banding on the northwest side, and some decent upper-level outflow on the north side. The shear over TD 18 has decreased steady the past 48 hours, and is now down to 5 - 10 knots, which should support some moderate intensification. This shear is expected to remain constant or decrease slightly over the next 24 hours. The upper-level winds look favorable--an upper-level anticyclone has developed on top and will provide favorable outflow. Water temperatures are very warm--30 to 31C. However, there are two factors which will probably prevent TD 18 from attaining hurricane status in the next three days:

1) An upper level low pressure system over Cuba and Jamaica. This upper low is positioned to the southwest of TD 18, and the counterclockwise flow of air around the upper low will bring 5 - 10 knots of shear to TD 18's southwest flank over the next few days. The upper low is forecast to move west and maintain it's position on the southwest side of TD 18. However, after three days, the low is forecast to weaken, which would generate the lower shear environment TD 18 would need to grow into a hurricane.

2) Interaction with Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. TD 18's current track may put it on top of Cuba Tuesday. One model, the UKMET, indicates TD 18 will cross Cuba and get tangled up with the Yucatan Peninsula. Interaction with either of both of these land areas will likely prevent TD 18 from attaining hurricane strength until it can clear them and get its entire ciculation into the Gulf of Mexico.

Track of TD 18
The strong ridge of high pressure steering TD 18 to the west is forecast to persist for the next five days. The computer models differ some on how strong this ridge will be after TD 18 clears the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, with the UKMET and Canadian models taking the storm west-southwest into Mexico, the GFS and NOGAPS taking the storm towards south Texas, and the GFDL taking it into Louisiana. The strength of a trough of low pressure expected to swing across the Midwest U.S. late in the week will be crucial toward determining the where the storm ultimately makes landfall along the Gulf Coast. The strength of this trough is impossible to determine at this point. I believe that Texas is at greatest risk, judging by the current forecast guidance.

Intensity forecast for TD 18
Both of the major computer intensity forecast models, the SHIPS and GFDL models, make Rita a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday, as it passes through the Florida Keys. It is unlikely TD 18 could intensify to a stronger than Category 1 hurricane before it hits the Keys, since it's current state of organization is relatively poor, and there will still be some shear of the southwest side affecting the storm the next two days.

Assuming the storm misses Cuba, there is nothing I can see to prevent Rita from becoming a major Category 3 or higher hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Friday. Shear is forecast to be light, and water temperatures are at record high levels. But if Rita hits Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula, it will be difficult for her to regroup quickly enough to attain more than Category 2 hurricane strength.

Philippe
Tropical Storm Philippe continues to organize, and has all the appearance of a system on its way towards becoming a large a powerful major hurricane. Philippe's track looks good for everyone except the residents of Bermuda. I looked through the tracks of all hurricanes that passed close to the point where Philippe is forecast to be five days from now, a few hundred miles south of Bermuda. Only three hurricanes in the past one hundred years have gone on to hit the U.S. that passed through a location that far to the north and east. The longer range computer models do suggest Philippe may take a more westerly motion towards the U.S. late in the week, but the odds of a trough of low pressure picking up Philippe and recurving him out to sea are high. I seriously doubt Philippe will affect any land areas except perhaps Bermuda.

ITCZ disturbance
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), remains active. A tropical wave in the ITCZ located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has acquired a low level circulation and some deep convection, and may grow into Tropical Depression 19 later in the week as it moves west-northwest over the open Atlantic Ocean.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

than state that getreal when u state ur statement on where she will go. just so you know the climatology right now is more of a late august than a late septemebr. u should realise that. so ur basing it on a few things u see but would u not watch this storm if ulived in texas, wouldu not prepare.
At this moment, it sounds good estimate to move the path to the north MiamiHurricane. However, the gamble is, how strong the north ridge is, and I believe that's what curent models consider strong possibility for tomorrow.
norcross is a long time weather guy for cbs4 in miami...he became famous during hurricane andrew when he spent the storm in a closet in the studios giving out words of encouragement to the citizens on the radio...does not want to work at nhc becuase he wants to get his info to the ppl directly but dont worry his info qualifies
Norcross is well liked in the South Florida area. He stayed on air throughout Hurricane Andrew.
what he said was already stated in the nhc disscussion at 5pm. so he can read a peice of paper good for him
Norcross has a much better more informed opinion than anyone on this board.
SWLAStormFanatic, Brian Norcross is somewhat of a folk hero here in South FLorida. He really made a name for himself during and immediately after hurricane Andrew. A lot of people down here really respect his opinion. Personally, I rarely get to see him so I can't really offer an opinion as to his accuracy over recent years.
Could not have said it any better CosmicEvents.
I know who he is now. I remember seeing a special on either 20/20 or 60 mins about him staying on the air from closet during Andrew. Thanks for the answer
I noticed that the 5pm forecast of Rita shows a northward turn at the end of the forecast track.....I wouldnt be surprised if that turn occurs very early taking Rita up the west coast of FL!
yes lefty he said this at 4 pm so it sounds like the discussion reflected wat he said...he was the first one to say it
Question? Geographically speaking, if the Hurricane watches extend to the northern Bahama's shoulden't the Hurricane watches parallel in the US up to Palm Beach?
leftyy.....except Norcross stated it an hour before the 5PM discussion. It's like he wrote the 5PM discussion. This was the same time that I asked for your opinion and you were fixated on the recons.
how so cosmic,


he stated the cnetr was at 23n and than backtrakced to state its a 22.2n like all of us said

next he just stated what was in the nhc disscussion at 5pm like some of us already had.

he gave no new info the nhc had not already given at 5pmand most of us who actually read the discussion had laready known about
Leftyy the local TV wx were singing the all clear for NOLA on THURS and FRI up to 5pm. They were taken completely by surprise, we were out of the cone of error according to them. That is why I am biased against continuity theory that nhc stands by.
Be back with y'all later...gotta take the dog to Petsmart!
lol no he stated the cenetr was at 23n and was wrong and back tracked. he also stated the track would be shifted north when it wasn't.


now miami dade will see effects from this how much depends on how strong but the stormwill move thru the florida straights and smack keywest. thats the forcast track and even a shift north a degree will still make that the track.
Norcross has a personal stake in his comments, his reputation to a large metro area, not to mention his home. He also has adegree in meteorology and a very good communication and reputation with NHC which is in his back yard. I would listen to him far more than wannabe's who have no personal stake or formal training in the field.
519. IKE
The latest NAM run 18Z has Rita hitting central Cuba then going into the gulf and turning west-northwest thru 84 hours which is Thursday. Appears to be a trough in the north central plains at that time that is heading eastward and might force Rita more northward than the current NHC thinking.

I know the NAM model isn't great and this is just one scenario.
Lefty if you read my post earlier, Norcross states that the deepest convection is at 23 and that most likely the center is reforming further north.
Hey, we LOVE Norcross down here. Better watch out or the muffinman will get ya

(total joke here-not threatening anyone)
lefty his exact words were is that he thought the center was reforming at 23...he then relized i guess that it was the mid level center...lefty u now have to admit with the flare up of thunderstorms farther north that the center is going to form farther north
did u look at the forcast link i supplied. nola wasin the cone from thursda till landfall. the local weathermna was wrong not the nhc. u need to look at the facts and place ur bias where it is due
SWLAStormFanatic ...you should send the dog to get his/her own groceries at Petsmart, at least would pick what likes best!
Well Philippe most definitely has a visible eye!

Been keeping an eye on what could become TD19. There's not much mower level convergence yet, and it hasn't shown an increase in vorticity compared to what yesterday. Looks like it'll be entering a more favorable sheer environment some time tomorrow.
Hey, somebody mentioned on the board about skeetobite weather site...do you find it to be reliable or not?
lefty i dont wanna come around as if i am attacking you...but in south florida every year we have many storms to deal with and every night we get through them with brian norcross and especially since bill kamal turned gay...lol
Does anyone here think that we may get to the greek Alphabet this season?
dos northward mean LA or some where in TX and what hop not it do not make landfall in LA and could this be come a cat4 or a cat5
will thats not an eye. thats a tall storm cloud
what would it take to turn towards the north central coast
I thought Kamal turned into a pedaphile? Am I mistaken - didn't he try to connect with a kid through the internet?
whats going on everyone, just got back home from the Clemson-Miami game last night, and see we have a lot to watch! I know everyone is talking about Rita, but are we writing off P as a fish storm, or are we waiting to see what the ridge does later in the week?
i do think that we may get to the greek Alphabet this season we when 4 more storm to make it there or it now down to 3 more storm to get there?
yeh and a cop showed up at their meeting...he used to say that every hurricane was going to hit miami
miami, i am not attcaking him or u guys in south florida. i am stating that all that was taken into the forcast fo the nhc and they are the ones responisble for the watches and warnings as well as flying into the storms to find the cenetr. now even a .8 degre shift north would not make a south florida landfall. thast why the cone is so thin showing shw will more than likely move thru the tsraights and people in miami will experience ts force winds and maybe cat1 conditions but the main concern will be to the people in the keys
Face it leftyy....you had your chance, and you missed. Maybe you were preocupied with football games. I asked you where you thought the center was, and you came back quickly and just gave me a recon fix. No further insight from you. 10 minutes later Norcross comes on and gives a detailed explanation about the low level circulation and the mid level circulation. Norcross answered my question, and he was right.
Norcross has a much better more informed opinion than anyone on this board

That is BS. I bet Lefty, myself, and a few others who post here have just as much knowledge of tropical cyclones as Brian Norcross.
I went to Gauthier Mississippi on Friday August 26th. The panhanlde was supposed to get Katrina when I left that morning. When I came home that night my Parish was in the cone. We did all our prep on Saturday and when Katrina Blew up we were out of here Sunday morning. Katrina hit August 29 ON my freaking birthday! We left to come home from Houston Monday about 11 pm. All the way home listening to WWL radio and the poor people of New Orleans calling in as the water kept rising and rising...
Indeed it is, shoulda looked at water vapor first. Got a lil too excited!
Kamal was let go in DC when he worked for WUSA for the same reason. That was before he came to MIami.
Holy crap that's an eye!
coasmic, what the hell are u talking about. i said it was on the south side of the convection where it currently is. i gave u the latest recon fix to support that observation as people were putting it as far north as 25n. until it reforms north thats where its at
Max Mayfield was on channel 7 earlier and said that things may be shifted further north in the upcoming advisories.
Whats happens if we get into the Greek Alphabet and then they are forced to retire the storm name!!??
here is the latest recon

URNT12 KNHC 182142 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/21:26:30Z
B. 22 deg 23 min N
072 deg 39 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 035 kt
E. 319 deg 019 nm
F. 038 deg 037 kt
G. 320 deg 018 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 22 C/ 306 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0218A CYCLONE OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 45 KT NE QUAD 19:46:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
CONVECTION NW THRU NE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT W/CTR POSITION.

notice the convection is more consitent with the cenetr position. the cenert mostlikely will not reformany more north than it is now
tornadoty what TS have a i eye on
thats not an eye its a shadow...
I don't think they have thought it out yet, SaCaCh. :(
551. IKE
This quote on the vortex..."CONVECTION NW THRU NE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT W/CTR POSITION.".....

sounds like a relocation may be occuring.
right and whats the cenetr possition. about 22.4n so it won't be reforming any mroe north than where it is at now
Storms jog, centers reform, no one knows for sure.
Yah sorry about the eye, sun is setting in the west right now creating relief for the storm tops. It is a stormtop and its shadow.
thast .2 degres north from the last advisory and that gives u a trck still thru the florida straights
lol i am just giving u the data sn. if the convection is aligning its self with the cenetr position of 22.38 than thats where the cenetr has reformed
is it just me or do we have 2 storm in the altantic 3 storm on east pacific and 1 storm in the centaral pacific wow what is going on her
Yes. the models have it going thru the florida staits. BUT that is why there is the cone. Because storms do not always behave like we think they are going to.
leftyy...this is my last post on this issue.
.
.
I simply asked you 2 1/2 hours ago where you thought the center was. I didn't ask you about track or intensity or what you thought might happen in the future. I told you I thought it was at 23N, not 22N. I saw something in the satellite images that I did not understand. I asked for your explanation and insight. You responded with a recon fix and no explanation. 10 minutes later Briam Norcross came on and answered my question. Period. I'm sorry I asked to begin with. As I've said Brian Norcross has a better and more informed opinion than anyone on here.
we are not talking 5 days out we are talking less than 3. they are pretty accurate thru 3 days and none of the models are north into florida which nmeans if there was an error it wouldmost likely be south than north
I think the the NHC is RIGHT ON. Just look at every one of these storms historically. They may move a little to adjust, but they peg it each time. I listen to a lot of stuff here, but when I see the 5 and 11 updates, that's where I put my faith.
cosmic if u look at the posts i first told u i saw it at 21.5 or 22n but no further north than that. i than stated it was located on the south side of the convection. 2 posts later i posted the recon fix. read the posts
There is an error rate on the path of up to 65nm. Thus the coneof uncertainty.
I agree muffin...it seems like they have been pretty accurate thus far especially 3 days out.
here cosmic. this might refrsh ur memeory

Posted By: leftyy420 at 7:35 PM GMT on September 18, 2005.
hawke all the models are intiialising the storm to south thats the problem and the reason the gfdl now has a lower intensity is its last 2 runs sends it over cuba.


getreal the shear has slacked and expected to be below 5 kts in 12 hrs or so. thats why u don't see any slacken of the shear yet, its not suppose to slacken till later tonight

i put the cenetr at 21.5 or 22.0 n. but below 22.5 north for sure


than i said

Posted By: leftyy420 at 7:38 PM GMT on September 18, 2005.
and recon fixed it at 21.5 just an hour or so ago
now cosmic if u notice i answered ur question than went and found the last recon to give it to you. u simply need toscroll down and check the posts. no need to appologise its cool.
but coasmic i do appreciate u jumping downmy throaght and getting a sorry as u were wrong but i know u don't have it in u
yet all play nic now
3 days late, 3 dollars short, and counting.
ok cosmic ur silence is golden lol. just lurk and stay quiet for now on than
1st and goal miami
GO FINS!!!
Bryan Norcross went to FSU, which settles the issue for me. For the same reason I also discount the FSU model regardless of how plausible it's scenario seems (j/k) GO GATORS!

Anyhow lefty do you have any input on what will happen to the cape verde wave if Philippe were able to punch through the building subtropical ridge as predicted? Will the wave follow suit, or will it continue to track west.

Right now with that ridge to the north it seems that the cape verde storm has an excellent start to a US east coast landfall (should it be able to continue tracking west).

latest sfwmd models
hope it posts
oh and cosmic u neevr asked for an expalnation only where i though the cenetr was. next time if u want an explanation open ur mouth and as for one. ITS CALLED SHEAR
willjax --- last night awesome in swamp!
TOUCHDOWN!!!
will not so, it might just follow phillipe as phillipe will leave a weakness but we will see
wow rita is starting to blow up big time. here comes that rapid itensification i was talking about lol
J-E-T-S Suck Suck Suck!!!!!
I also think the NHC has a good handle on Rita, although forming a little more north, The ridge building down through Florida will eliminate any Northward movement. Which is why a possible west southwest motion was stated back to it's original track. The ridge is building down as seen on Water Vapor and it is strong, can't see anything getting through it.
Lefty did u mean "it will not so" or as in "WillJax not so?"

Seems that the LBAR model is thinking the same thing I was earlier on, even if it is incorrect:

"I'm wondering if a possibly more northern track of Rita, combined with the realtively high pressure predicted to cast itself over parts of the Gulf in the future, could turn the storm right back into the southern/midwest coast of Florida."

Please note that it's PURE SPECULATION so don't get freaked out.
is this normal 4 storms behind each other in the pacific?
Norcross just on again... now he says Rita is taking the southerly track...
i meant willjax not so lol


thats unlikley will as the ridge will make her move west. the labar is the poorest of themodels. also notice the concensus thru 3 days. right thru thr straights. real bad for the keys. they will do mand evacs starting tomm
The NHC states THE INITIAL AND FORECAST MOTION ARE COMPLICATED BY THE ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN...WHICH SEEM TO WANT TO DRAG THE SYSTEM NORTH OF A DUE WEST TRACK...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS TRYING TO FORCE THE SYSTEM DUE WESTWARD. THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN TAKING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...IN SOME CASES SOUTH OF DUE WEST...TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SINCE IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE CENTER WILL REFORM FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
i do not think so
Miami Dolphins finally scored!!!!
ladobelady you have mail
Hey all anything new going on with the storms?
lol i know he didn't just come on tv and backtrack again lol.

thats why u don;t go any further than what u know. he know knows the cenert will not refrom north of 23n and will reform around 22.4 as it is doing and that the ridge will be to strong for her to go anywhere but due west
Cosmic, as I said before, Brian Norcross doesn't know any more than Lefty or myself. I understand if Norcross thinks the center was at 23N. That is certainly closer to the deep convection and it is likely where the mid level center is. Earlier this afternoon when several people were debating where the center was and if it was farther north than 22.5 I watched the visible loop over and over and posted I thought the surface center was at 22.3N 72.4W. A few minutes later the recon report came out and said it was 22.2N 72.4W. Over the next hour it appeared to me the center was either moving north a bit or getting pulled north by the convection. The next, and latest, recon said 22.4N. At no point this afternoon have I seen any indication the surface center was as far north as 23N and the recon plane has confirmed that. As the evening and night go by the center might very well continue to migrate northward to 23N, and I think that is somewhat likley as the convective blobs in that vicinity are becoming larger and deeper by the hour, but it is not there yet. I have read and listened to Norcross many times and I actually have his site bookmarked so I can see his thoughts about storms like Rita, but please don't insult those of us here who have serious knowledge of tropical cyclones by claiming Norcross is some hurricane god and nodoby here could hold his jock strap.
where all them norcross lovers. told u tofollow the nhc not ur local guy. hemight be a good guy and all but he is not the nhc.


by the way i saw what he did durring andrew and it was very moving so i do like the guy
And neither are you.
hey hawke the convection ids actuulay moving north now so the cnetr positon will probly be 25n asnd no higher
Lefty, are you saying that Norcross MIGHT have been right with his more northerly trend?
sn no one here said we were hurricane gods. and would not want anyone toview any of us or any one else fopr tha matter as one. we are all human and prone to error. thats just life
Here is an audio/video link from Hurricanecity (REAL PLAYER) last update on phillipe and rita

Link
that is not wat he said first of all...he said that the nhc was forecasting the south track but he stayed at his position on 23 and the thunderstorms do continue to build north of 23 and the storm looks alot stronger than 40 mph with all the reds...but lefty u said that it is going to rapidly intensify soon...well it cannot do that until the mid-level and low-level circulations hook up and that has not happened yet.
1995 we had 4 named storms rolling across the Atlantic like bowling balls rolling down a lane; that was also a very busy year. I don't know about Pacific storms, don't really keep up with those.
NCH, Steve Gregory, US Coast Guard and Gators rock!!!
no where did u get that from
Haha! I did not say anything about hurricane gods. Only stated that you are not the NHC.
Posted By: leftyy420 at 10:35 PM GMT on September 18, 2005.
wow rita is starting to blow up big time. here comes that rapid itensification i was talking about
From here:

Posted By: leftyy420 at 10:50 PM GMT on September 18, 2005.
hey hawke the convection ids actuulay moving north now so the cnetr positon will probly be 25n asnd no higher
miami, based on the recon put out an hr ago the to circulations ahve hooked up at around 22.4n


thats why the convection is now consoldating around the cnetr location in the recon, and the winds ahve picked up.


45kt max recorder flight level winds as iof the last recon showing she is getting stronger

sorry that should have been south. if u look at the ir loop the convection is moving sout and buuilding south and west of the center
That track looks a little suspicious to me; I think they are intentionally pushing it south to avoid scaring people from the north-central Gulf Coast.
what is everones thinking om whereR and P will go?
Philippe doing a little dance out there, quite a westward push on the latest loops
miami the cnters have hooked up. thats why there was a 10kt jump in windspeed in a little over an hr

well here is the recon read what it says at the bottom

URNT12 KNHC 182142 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/21:26:30Z
B. 22 deg 23 min N
072 deg 39 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 035 kt
E. 319 deg 019 nm
F. 038 deg 037 kt
G. 320 deg 018 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 22 C/ 306 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0218A CYCLONE OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 45 KT NE QUAD 19:46:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
CONVECTION NW THRU NE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT W/CTR POSITION.

612. IKE
Intentionally south? To not scare the people of the north-central gulf coast...not sure they would do that. No...they wouldn't possibly do that.
I think that they might do it with it this far out. I'm not saying that they would do it if it were seen as a real threat to that region.
I agree the convection is becoming more organized with respect to the center, but the deep convection is still largely a bit north and east of the surface center. If sometime tonight a big blob of deep convection can form over/around the center it can then begin strengthening more quickly. It is not quite there yet.
well time will tell
robert the models are why the track is what it is. there is no track taking it north. now that could change but for roght now the models don't show it
I don't think that anyone "intentionally" puts a track some place other than where they think it's going so they don't "scare" someone. Not after 8/29.
Bleh, Miami sucking makes me wanna cry. Hopefully they'll score on this drive to make it look...okay it was intercepted as I was typing so N/M.

Muffin, u were at the Swamp last night? I am extremely jealous! I wanted to be there but I already went to Gville last weekend.
Phillippe looks like a hurricane now....
Rita still looks to be further north than we are advised.
26 yrs of living in Broward County Florida, the one thing I can count on, when Broward is in the center of the "cone" 3 or 5 days out (and this has happened many time) that is the one sure bet that the storm will go north or south; Broward has not been directly hit (by center of a storm) since Cleo.
lefty
why would they put up a hurricane watch for the nw bahamas
its moving west right dont make sense
Hi all -

An absolute amateur who tries to follow all this with minimal knowledge! From what I am seeing, it's pretty safe to say Tampa need not worry, right?

Do you all agree?
salter why don;t us ask the bahama govt as they issue there own advisories. not the nhc
That is probably the government of the Bahama's doing that, hence no Hurricane Watch for Palm Beach
lefty
man relax i just ask why you seem to know what your talking about man calm down
yeah some people don;t realise that watches are issued by other govt and that they might be doing it just to be safe.
Heck with all the storms they have had recently I would leave up a mandatory Hurricane Watch for the whole season
willjax: I wasn't in the swamp but would have loved to be there; just in my house in Destin with a bunch of Gators cooking out, losing my voice cheering, etc.... nothing more than what any self respecting Gator does in their branch office when they can't get to the swamp.........!!!!! weather was great!!!
why calm down. i answered ur question. i don;t know go as the bahama govt. what u want me to sugar coat it for you damn man
The Bahamas always seems to divide their warnings into southeast, central, and northwest Bahamas. Even if only the southern part of the northwest Bahamas, Andros Island for example, is expected to get hurricane conditions, they will still issue a hurricane warning for Great Bahama Island which is well to the north. That is just the way they have always done it.
thought you might know i didnt know who post the watches for other countries
thanks everyone for that information now i know
Hi all,

Now for a change of weather, its snowing where I am (horrible cold stuff).
Progressive I think your right, looks like P has made a push to the west or wnw after looking at the watervapor loop.
634. MIAWX
Tropical storm watch is now up for Miami.
sorry satr burti have had people comming down my thoat all day. this is what its like in here when a storm is so clsoe to land. people go nuts and they come out of tghe woodwork. they all see things that aren't there and other crap
Adios all, thanks for all the info. Should be a very interesting evening and day tomorrow.
ok guys recon flight is headed to philippe so we will see how strong he is
Everyone,

Step away from the keyboard and take 10 deep breaths!
Look Leftty, I was wondering and I know you have said it before but I want to know where does Rita go in 4 days??? Does she get pulled north with a trof or goes to LA/TX???
lefty
been on here lurking most of the night i've watched the heavy conversations. kool no problems i think alot of good information comes out of all this so thanks
Where are you Kiwi? I'll trade with you...high today in SWLA was a cool 97! We've run a consistent 5 to 8 degrees above average all summer. I can't wait for fall and winter!
Lefty: What's the deal on Stormtop? I'm sorry but I haven't been reading each and every post. He really pegged Kat. Unreal.
pretty wild rescue guy, looks like someone shot it out of a sling shot, would say more south of west
taco thats the million dollar question. like i said befor just use the nhc track which would suggest a texas landfall. that could change and we need more models to see for sure.
The reason why I am asking is because my cats (both of them) are acting strange, like something is going to happen, thats all...
Lefty has come around to my position--he thought it unlikely that Rita would go straight west or WNW across the gulf so late in september,and seemed to think that Rita was likely to hit the north central gulf coast.

My prediction, Palacios TX, 941 mb 115 kts

And remember, my predictions are ALWAYS wrong :)
Tampa girl I am with you I live north of Tampa and would likr to also no if we are out of the woods..!
Taco-What are your ants doing? Seriously, and what part of LA?
until the storm dissipates no one is out of the woods lol
Ladobelady you will not beleive this but I had to kill a lot of ants inside of my house and it sure bothered me...
Amorris - where are you?

No one is answering my question!! :-)
Cats are very smart. Whenever I evacuate they are crazy in the car leaving (to a safe place inland which they know well) and when we are returning in the car they are cool. Could have something to do with pressure and mom semi-freaking out arguing with dad about leaving which he doesn't want to do.
and it is not just my house the people that live next to me also had the same problem... Ants inside of there house...
I had to do that from the time TD 10 reformed to (td 13 I think? then Katrina) and Katrina was born. Ants like I've never seen in my life.
tampa i just answered it. i said no one is safe till she makes landfall. u want some kind of a notion but thats the nature of these things. until it hits somewhere else or passes ur location than ur not out of the woods
Tampagirl, I am not a professional but they way this season is going I wouldn't discount anything. Like lefty said, till the storm dissapates no one is out of the woods.
I live in Citrus County
Taco what part of LA?
Thanks Lefty and ProgPulse...sorry if I missed it Lefty, just trying to keep up.
Oh Im sorry I live in Mobile Alabama... :)
Weather here on GA coast is icky today...strange milky sky, very humid, suspiciously calm air and an oily looking ocean. If I didn't know better I would think a hurricane was on the way here, although I know it's not true. Just uncanny how it feels outside.
Progressive, is P forecast to go thrua weakness in the ridge. Wondering the the reason for such a due nOrth motion in the models, iam thinking with another couple hours of the motion we are seeing the models may shift but that jsut me. Just another amateur!!
is someone seeying that phillepe is moving west?
Lefty, the 18z GFDL is in and it does shift the track a bit northward, farther away from the Cuban coast. I would add, however, that it STILL initializes Rita's center about one full degree too far south.

Link

The wide water vapor really shows Rita's outflow to the northwest through east becoming quite impressive.

Link
665. amd
the rapid strengthening may be ready to occur with Rita:

...Rita getting much better organized and strengthening as it nears
the southeastern Bahamas...


a Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward and westward to Dry Tortugas...including
Florida Bay. The watch area will likely be upgraded to a Hurricane
Warning later tonight.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwest Bahamas.
Portions of this watch area may be upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
later tonight.

A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect for the provinces of Villa
Clara...Matanzas...Ciudad de Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del
Rio...and a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Ciego de
Avila...Sancti Spiritus...and Cienfuegos.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands...and for the southeast and central Bahamas.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the extreme
southeastern Florida Peninsula from Deerfield Beach southward to
Florida City and continuing westward to East Cape Sable. The watch
area will likely be upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning and
possibly a Hurricane Watch later tonight.


A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Rita was
reforming farther north near latitude 22.7 north... longitude 72.9
west or about 330 miles ...530 km... east-southeast of Nassau.


Rita is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected to occur
later tonight or on Monday. On this track...Rita will be moving
over the southeast and central Bahamas tonight and Monday.


Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance indicate maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
24 hours... and Rita could become a category one hurricane by late
Monday.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110
km... mainly to the north of the center.


The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force
hurricane hunter plane was 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5
inches over much of the turks and caicos and the southern and
central Bahamas...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches.


Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...22.7 N... 72.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM EDT.


Forecaster Stewart
22.7 god i luv norcross
do i also see a north west motion...wow...i luv how our models are always right
Hawkeye, is it just me or is the LBAR track just bizarre?
Latest GFDL is pretty interesting and actually shows the defined movement around the H.

Actually has it in an area very near to the Houston. Cant get a break this year at all.
"At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Rita was reforming farther north near latitude 22.7 north... longitude 72.9 west or about 330 miles ...530 km... east-southeast of Nassau. "
Latest Vortex Data Message doesn't look good for the Keys/ SO. FL:

000
URNT12 KNHC 182347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:24:20Z
B. 22 deg 36 min N
072 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 071 deg 067 kt
G. 042 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 19 C/ 499 m
J. 18 C/ 1518 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 0218A CYCLONE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 67 KT N QUAD 23:16:50 ZSLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE



movment to the nw due to the shift north of the cenetr. she will be a cane by the 5am or 11am updates tommorow
lol who told me there was no rapid itensification lol
674. amd
norcross truly knows his stuff, especially compared to other "meterologists" on tv.
Is she tracking NW though?
is there a eye on it yet?
who told me that there is no wnw motion or center reforming to the north...mmm...we were both wrong on sum levels i admit...lefty wat is ur strength forecast for landfall in the keys
cat 3 in the keys. been saying it for 2 days

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
RITA...CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 72.9W...
LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SW SIDE BUT THE CENTER
REMAINS EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER COULD BE REFORMING SLIGHTLY FARTHER N
WHERE THE TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STRONGEST.
ehen's the last time a major hurricane hit the keys? (Georges and Charley were Cat 2's)
miami i newver said it wouldn;t reform to the north. check what i said as i don;t feel like doing tou what i did to cosmic and having to go thru the posts.
Lefty I said no rapid intensification until tomorrow, looks like I am gonna have to get that beer!
StSimon, the LBAR just sucks, period. I think that model is really just some nerd in a room throwing strands of spaghetti at a map on the wall.

The latest satellite, recon, and NHC info is very consistent with the trend late this afternoon. Once the convection began forming into larger and deeper blobs the center slowly started getting pulled toward it, thus the northwest motion. The new center fix puts it at the southern edge of the deep convective blob. If the center can get all the way under that blob Rita can finally start cooking.
so she is at 60mph right now. maybe a little less
ok i believe u and im sry but do u still rule out hurricane force winds in miami
I wish we could see the radar images that the recon missions take
hawk she is already cooking. she has increased to 60mph in what 6 hrs or so lol
Norcross just said that recon found dropping pressure and stronger winds near the 23 center position...growing stronger..and now the emmys...go deadwood/lost
I always thought Rita would cook, I just didnt know she was going to cook so fast!
Norcross on as we speak... now the NHC has agreed the storm is moving NW (not west)it is trying to develope an eye wall. and Dade and Broward will probably go under a Hurricane Warning tonight....

The track will be repositioned by the NHC shortly.
Lefty, a 1 mb drop with each of the last three recon fixes can hardly be considered rapid strengthening. The organization has improved significantly today, which was necessary before any rapid strengthening could occur. That might happen tomorrow.
the last recon was extrap so it ids likely lower. u should know this hawk
Lefty, I would not be shocked if Rita moved through the keys as a cat 3 as you are thinking. I think we just have a slightly different definition of "cooking" and "rapid strengthening". I guess I am basing my wording more on millibars.
here is my question....if it does track near key west what will the effect in Miami be? Will we face hurricane force winds if it is a cat 2 or3?
Well, Taco, it doesn't look good for us "ant-wise". I live in Gulf Shores, and we just had an infestation of ants in my office a few days ago. For no good reason. Had a line of them all the way around the walls of the office. Had real problems in my house a few years back as well, about the time as Danny and George blew through...and I know we had ants sometime last year....and then we got Ivan.
its cool hawke, as long as we agree on the final soultion lol


if she goes thru the keys just ofshore as a cat 3 miami could see some strong winds above cane strength
The recon guys often put "extrap xxxx mb" on theiro reports and the NHC still uses that number for their official advisories. The satellite suggest another mb or two have been shed since that report, though.
698. Manny
That upperlow is still having a pretty big effect on the storm. I don't think you'll see any rapid intensification until that is not a factor at all.
What's with the latest BAMM for Rita and that beeline toward N.O. again? That's a far cry from the other models. Is the Bamm a good performer for this type of storm?
also hawke look at the core temps.


huge drop in 2 hrs. we will see that pressure fall rapidly here soon as well
No ants in Destin tonight!!!
not to mention the A983 which has going up Eastern Florida???

I guess we can discredit that one along with the LBAR, right?
Fynn,

BAMM is the only one with the NEW center position, thats why... when the other models have the position right, I think we'll see the same.
manny, she was a weak td at 11am, she is almost a cane here at 8pm. what do u call that.
705. Manny
The BAMM models only do well with shallow storms. This storm will not be a shallow storm and should not follow that course.

Should not...
Of course the 8pm BAMM will change many times over the next few days and it could be very wrong, but man, that would be the absolute worst track possible for NO.

707. Manny
Lefty, just semantics, but I think rapid intensification should only apply to actual hurricanes. You could call this more of an organization.
BAMM has been decent at best from most of this year... but each storm they react different with the variables given.

Dont see it making that kind of run but, that is the actual track for "worst case scenario" for New Orleans
What's that latest motion, nw with a wnw motion expected later?? My, my, even some of the latest model runs are shifting right. Could the NHC possibly come around to the analysis I posted earlier, north central gulf coast?? We'll see soon enough. Katrina dejavue.
ok manny. we will have a cane by 5am and a cat 2 by 5pmtomm. and a cat 3 bearing down on the keys
not New Orleans no way
getreal, the motiopn is due to the cenetr reforming. thye state motion as 3 hr fixes and the last 3 fixes have been during reformation. she willmove due west or wnw.
713. Manny
Lefty, for what its worth I agree with you on that strengthening. I think at the least a cat 2 when it passes the keys.
i ahv update dmy blog half an hour ago
can some you give me a up date on the P storm?
Winds are up to 50 mph as of 8 pm, pressure is down to 1005 mb. This is due to the steady strengthening today and expect this to continue. Remember, worst case scenario is still a cat. 3 so stay informed. Now the big change. The NHC has finally realized the center is farther north and moving NW. This should bring hurricane watches to South Florida at 11 pm. I dont believe the hurricane center has anymore room to be stubborn about it. Models might start to be right in 12 hours or so as the correct center has been found. Next update tonight.
cool manny. we found some common ground
I agree hole heartedly lefty, Rita will move wnw or west, but every degree further north see gets, the more likely my scenerio plays out with a turn to north in central gulf when trof approaches on thurs.
get real i told u 1 hundred times. i feel she could go anywhere from the panhandle to texas. so i agree with ur track. my only concern right now is the land infront of her. florida and the keys. we can worry bout where she goes after that
I just updated my blog because what I was going to put here would be too big of an entry. I would appreciate your thoughts.
Hiya from The Bahamas :)
I just finished making two "safe" rooms in my house with plywood-shuttered windows. We, in Nassau and the Northwestern Bahamas, are in a hurricane watch, according to our met guys, because of the fact that at that time Rita had her strongest winds in the north and northeast quadrants. Those areas would pass over us as it moves to the south.
I had to "borrow" plywood today from my brother because most people here, including the hardware and lumber businesses didn't appear to know about the watch :(
Amazing, eh ?
Ah well ...
lefty, do you think it could move closer to the Northwest Bahamas or are the models probably right with the slight southern shift when it reaches the central Bahamas ?
BTW, everyone, what o you think of the models on the right side of this map ?
Link
the new bamm models have it making landfall a lot closer to southern miami-dade county near Florida City/Homestead. I hope people in miami-dade are prepared. I think people have been given a false sense of security with the models run late this afternoon. Tomorrow is going to be crazy around here........
tornadty

she will not make landfall in homestead. she will move thru the straights. the reformation was only a half of a degree. that would only shift the track back to where it was at 11am. models all support this and the ridge moving over florida now will solidify this
724. Peff
The WV loop for AL972005 shows a cluster of thunderstorms forming on the African continent well north of the most recent batch. Based on the fact that they appear to come off-shore farther north, do you think it's probable that we're entering an even more active period than recently? Thoughts?

AL972005 Water Vapor loop
Ok, by the way leftyy I've come around to your thinking on intensity at florida landfall, strong cat 2 for sure, maybe cat 3.
she will not move much more north than she is now people. she is moving thru the florida straights period
hey lefty finally got wife out of hospital she is resting. if you look back at isodore in 2002 it actually went w/wnw then sw
into yuc which weakened it. but their was a large high at that time then it went due north. take apeak at its track. also it is hard for a storm to go due west across gulf this time of year. if this storm moves slower than expected the better possibility of it going further.north what your take on that and the isodore track.
lol getreal. somethings wrong if we are agreeing lol
She is moving NW, Lefty. Even the NHC has noted that. And, they only call for a gradual turn to the WNW, not to the due W.
Hawkeye.....I'm sorry if I offended you. It wasn't intentional. Those of us who have seen Norcross make his forecasts for years have come to respect his opinion. That's not to say he's a god or couldn't hold your jockstrap, as you put it. I just believe that he has a better more reasoned and informed opinion than anyone on this blog. I do commend you for your post awhile back where you left open the possibility that he may be right in his forecast. As it turns out he is, but as he and every reasonable person knows...there is no certainty in predicting these things. He could have just as easily been wrong. All us who have no real knowledge ask for is an informed opinion....and BRIAN NORCROSS delivers. Leftyy....not to embarass you, but the facts speak for themselves. To save you the time to search back through the posts, here's a few:

Posted By: leftyy420 at 10:47 PM GMT on September 18, 2005.
lol i know he didn't just come on tv and backtrack again lol.

thats why u don;t go any further than what u know. he know knows the cenert will not refrom north of 23n and will reform around 22.4 as it is doing and that the ridge will be to strong for her to go anywhere but due west
.
.Posted By: leftyy420 at 10:48 PM GMT on September 18, 2005.
where all them norcross lovers. told u tofollow the nhc not ur local guy. hemight be a good guy and all but he is not the nhc.
.
.Posted By: leftyy420 at 10:15 PM GMT on September 18, 2005.
right and whats the cenetr possition. about 22.4n so it won't be reforming any mroe north than where it is at now


in defense of lefty gentleman the high is stronger than with katrina, which moved sw but the speed of the storm is the critical point if it moves faster mextex problem if it moves slower lili/isodore type scenario just what we need on ms. coast. its really cut and dry if you will look at archives i think you will find isodores track very interesting. if the high is the main feature acelia type of event.
tornadoty

she moved nw cause the cenetr reformed nw

motionm is 3 hr cenetr fixes so if the cneter reforms the motion will be with the reformation of the cnetr. this is even noted by the nhc in the 8pm advisory. i will post it for you in case u miseed it
Isidore came from the Caribbean, not the Straits of FL or South Florida, and Celia was very bad. To be quite blunt, a Celia is what I expect for Galveston/Houston. :(
heres what they said


AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
REFORMING FARTHER NORTH NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 72.9
WEST OR ABOUT 330 MILES ...530 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
lefty here i take up for you and your bashing experts again and singing the praises of nhc again i think you should let the experts be experts and the nhc not be god you might catch less flack arrogance is a major pitfall most of us have amateurs that criticize career experts is a sign of jealousy. just a friendly advice that goes to you to hawk.
cosmic i don;t know what ur porblem is but the storm reformed at 22.7. i said it wont me to much further north than 22.4 meraning it would not be 23n relax and go do something constrcutive
Lefty, could you please give me a mean latitude of the "Central Bahamas"?
I have a feeling galveston is in line for this. 100 years after the big one. These are stange times and it's just an instinct that I can't let go.
739. IKE
I see why the NHC thinks she will move back to the w/nw or west. If you look at the wator vapor and loop it, it's pretty apparent she has almost no other way to go. That's a stronh high center over TX/LA.
uh saint the nhc are the experts
tornoty i know it came from carribean but it was in the same range in gulf as they forecast this one i know a lot of folks are not storm historians but climatology is very important tool. p.s it seems to perform better than the nhc. lol.
torn

they were refering to the central bahamas because a hurricane is not a point. just as when she moves thru the straights miami will see hurricane conditions which i have said a couple times today. u called for landfall at homestead. she will not make landfall on the florida peninsula
i agree they are but you seem that they are the only ones you follow curious why that is and you criticize the other experts.
not being coy but do you have kin working there because thier performance leaves alot to be desired.
lefty is in love with govt agencies
actually gavelston haD A HURRICANE AS STRONG AS 1900 HURRICANE IN 1915 but most left also alecia was acat3 in 1983.
i think that is a great point lefty.....it is not a specific point. I think people worry to much about a point on a grid. I do not think it will be a direct landfall in Miami, but as Lefty has stated we will most likely see hurricane + force winds in Miami.
lol the fraks come out at night. no they are the nhc and they do a good job and all the data and satelites we have is from them. i already showed u ur bias against them becasue of katrina is uncalled for. no was in the cone as early as thursady so get over it
This year has done anything but follow climatology. For instance, when was the last time a hurricane dove SW across Florida? Before Katrina, the strongest a hurricane has ever gotten after exiting the Florida Peninsula as a tropical storm was cat. 1 intensity, and that hurricane spent just as much time over the Gulf as Katrina did. And when was the last time before Dennis that a cat. 4 struck land, weakened to a cat. 1, and then got even stronger (at least pressure wise) then it was before it made that landfall? You cannot follow climatology this year.
Hey SaintHur that is close to the scenerio I've been pushing since yesterday. And your right the NHC does not have a direct line to God. JUST look at some of the snafu tracks they put out early this season on Cindy (Texas), Dennis (LA), Katrina (FL east panhandle), Orpheila (GA) to name a few. The only one that they were close on the whole way was Emily.
lefty, here we go again, the next few days down here are going to be interesting
well thats leftys opinion just wish he would keep the bashing of well respected expert off the screen unless he is going to bash the nhc also it is irritating. its the same with us monday morning qbs bashing pro atheletes when we never played adown of pro ball.
So Lefty, can you give me a mean latitude for the Central Bahamas?
can some one give me a up date on the P storm
<
Does this mean We'er in the clear In Broward County
24.5 N 77 W
well i guess u can place the central bahammas between 22.5n and 25n
tornoty want argue but wasnt andrew moving wsw before it crossed in gulf. betsy in 1965.i might not be a model man thank god but i can toe to toe on the history of these things.
incidentally, the reloction to the north means that the center went 0.5 north and only 0.2 west taking it almost directly to---the GA coast ;-)
And Andrew was a LOT stronger than a cat 1 after it got into the gulf.
You folks in the Miami area have a young TV wxman named David Bernard, he left a local station in NOLA in August to take job in Miami station just as Katrina was approaching FL. Have any of you watched him yet??
sainthurricanefan tornoty was referring to storms that weakened to tropical storm status--neither betsy nor andrew nor the 1947 huricane did that. He may be right. But I am not sure what the point is, lol
tornonado betsy a four at crossing andrew a 4. 1926 hurricane lake occochobie a 4. 1947 hurricane a4. all crossed into gulf from florida.
This is kind of the worst case scenario with Rita coming right down the pipe from east to west through the keys with no land mass to slow it down or weaken it. Usually Cuba takes a little wind out of the storm as it passes over the higher elevations. Key West is a little scarry because there's only one two lane road out and you have to travel in the exact direction that the storm is approaching from....so evacuation is not as easy this time...plus time is already running out and nobody has even started putting their shutters up yet. The grocery store was an absolute cluster this afternoon.....not to mention the few gas stations that still had gas. So I guess we can just hope that the southwestern sheer keeps RITA from getting too big as she travels through the keys....or maybe hope that she hugs the Cuban coast and stays further to our south. If she hits here as a strong storm just to our south, it could be a little scarry. That's all from Key West
764. IKE
Anyone know why there's no 18Z GFS yet????????
I'd like to hear the early specaltion of philippe.
no one said broward county is out of the clear.


listen up. if ue in south florida even if the storm does not make landfall on the peninsula a hurricane is not a point. as afr north as miami will see hurricane force winds most likely. thats the point. thats why ur under watches and warnings but the system is forcast to move thru the florida straights
st simons they relocated the center on emily but it was not moving nw. i have to agree with lefty on that.
Andrew did loose a little latitude to the east of the bahamas--but was just beginning to curve to the north as it hit Homestead--might have been moving towards 275 when it hit Homestead, and moving towards 28 when it exited the state
769. mobal
My 2 Cents worth, models and NHC are only good 3 days out, 4 at best.
yeah get real...he is on the same station as Brain Norcross...cbs
I'm sorry GETREAL but the NHC didn't have Kat on us (Fl panhandle) but for a very short period of time and then moved her to NO for a definite track for several days pre land fall. Certainly enough time for more people to get out than did. The NHC seems to be THE most reliable, and consistant.... one of the best performing agencies in our government right now. LOL
Yeah IKE i just got back on the puter and was wondering the same thing..hmmm...
Is the consensus RIta will pass just south of the FL penninsula or are we looking at a landfall on the east coast of FL?>
Also, can anyone offer, in plain english (not weatherspeak)what the anticipated strength of the storm will be when it nears FL?
so when a hurricane eye moves onto land they call it landfall, when if moves back over water why don't they call it waterfall
?
775. IKE
lefty...you're the professional here. Why no 18Z GFS?
here are the models in nice graphic form...Link..or if ya like them in text....Link
At least the director of the NHC wasn't a Horse federation boss before assuming his post!
Good Evening All... Are the models starting a new trend back to the right?Link
I have no problem with NHC forecast 72 hours in Muffin, those are usually very accurate. outside of 72 hours they have alot of bust.
st simon just enjoy talking about storms past present future not just models and constantly watching every wobble of one storm hour after hour. by the way katrina was awesome to watch out my window, but sickening for i knew what it was doing to our beatiful coast why i dont ttrust this storm certainly doesnt make me feel better nhc takes away from us.
My point was that climatology has been thrown out the window this season.
Alicia was borderline 2/3, but still a pretty bad storm.
Listening to that wind all night was awesome, but every time it would gust you'd think "oh ****, tornado".

I hope Rita stays away from the upper Texas coast; the valley really needs the rain anyway.
Cane, as it looks now probably just to the south of the mainland florida peninsula, but you cannot rule out a landfall in Dade or even Broward counties--also remember that on the right (in this case northern) side of the track are usually the strongest and most spread out winds. It is too close a thing to be sure about now.
Hi all I just got back in and saw the8pm then i see people bashing lefty... He is just calling it like he sees it people... Norcross was right about the center reforming more to the north..I am surprised to see them put it on a NW track instead of a wnw Track but I feel that is just for continuity considering the center has formed northwest of where it was..... What concerns me is now the BAMM Model ran at 8pm has shifted North almost over SE Miami-Dade County.. If this is the start of a trend with all the models and the storm makes it to 25 degrees (which i have my doubts but its possible) that puts South Florida on the "Dirty Side" of the Storm... And literally gives us 24 hours to prepare for a cat 1 maybe lower cat 2 storm here in South Fla..... I am interested in feedback about the BAMM Shifting Northward.. Hi Bill #703
18z gfs right here


Link
SAINTHURRIFAN-Andrew moved due W to just barely S of W across FL, whereas Katrina was a solid southwesterly motion.
787. mobal
03, what are your thoughts after Rita reaches the Gulf?
788. IKE
Thanks for the GFS...Lefty. It's tough taking the abuse...good luck with it.
It is always nice to see the various opinions on here. The NHC forcast paths starting on the "birth date" for each storm haven't been too good this year. They have been quite good though at 72 hours before final US landfall. Going back to last year & including this year, you have to look at which way the models "shift". It seems that the models tend follow the trend whether it be to the left or to the right. On the latest model runs it looks like Rita is recurving NW or NNW on day 5. Right now it looks like Corpus Cristi. Will the next model runs have it hitting Brownsville or San Antonion Bay? You should start to see the trend by Tuesday.
bamm is no longer a viable model as it is good with weak storms and now that rita is getting close to hurricane force it is no longer able to handle her
Lefty you wrote she will not move much more north than she is now people. she is moving thru the florida straights period
Is that not false security for people in Broward
ike its cool. once she starts into the straights it wil get quite in here for a couple days
StSimonsIslandGAGuy

Thanks
Hey all, I'd like to say hello by posting my updated track forecasts: Link

There has been about a 90 mile Northward shift through 72 hours in the models for Rita, mainly based on her NW movement and current position. this poses an increased threat to South Florida and the Keys
floor read wehat i wrote after that


people in south florida might not get a landfall but willl experience huuricane conditions being the cenetr will pass so close to them and that they will be on the right side of the storm
Thanks Lefty for the link
797. IKE
Seems like the 18Z GFS initializes Rita too far south. Ugh...
lefty...do you think the latest 18z gfs takes in to consideration the new center?
For hurricane79
Good link and nicely done. Did you do that? Will it be updated throughout the life of these storms?
wow first recon on philippe. looks like a cane

URNT12 KNHC 190111
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/00:23:40Z
B. 16 deg 17 min N
055 deg 52 min W
C. 850 mb 1367 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 299 deg 060 kt
G. 198 deg 007 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 16 C/ 1516 m
J. 23 C/ 1515 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E12/20/15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 60 KT SW QUAD 00:21:40 Z
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, OCCASIONAL MODERATE
hurricane79, I completely agree with your path, but I think that it will be stronger, especially since it seems to currently be rapidly intensifying. But you seem to be a pro, and I am just an amateur.
IKE, the 18Z GFDL is also initialized too far South. The new GFDL will be out in the next 45 min.
south no it doesn't. in the 18z run it skurts cuba so if u put the .5 or so degree north into it it will pass right between florida and cuba and tear up the keys
Holy crap, Lefty. I think you're right, it looks like we have Hurricane Philippe!
Thanks GETREAL and G'villeGator about the 72 hours in for the NHC. I see what you mean.
Katrina was supposed to hit West Palm then hit bellow Fort Lauderdale ten hit the keys. Nobody predicted that. All should prepare in South Florida. Best case you are prepared, worst more spam to eat at the end of the season.
79... Do you think Phillipe is that cut and dried or should
Bermuda be included in your cone as I thought I read that there may be a westward jog toward the end of the forecast period.
caneman, I made the tracks, and I try to update the throughout the life of the storms, as often as time allow me. Tornado, I agree that She may be even stronger than that in 48 hours, intensity forcasts are tough
809. IKE
Phillipe dropped 12 mb's. Maybe the 1000mb at 5pm was an estimate though....probably.
Lefty, whats your guess for landfall intensity in the gulf? I gave mine as Palacios TX, 941 mb 115 kts
lefty I understand what you are saying however bam has the right fix on the current center, GFS, GFDL and CMC do not. Their latest models runs are running based on previous fix of the center, a .4 of a degree is a huge difference from where this bi+ch will end up. so i have a good feeling that 0z models will be going on a more of right track towards key largo, homestead. By tomorrow morning the track is going to shift more north during the next 3 days. Just a gut feeling.
any one no if the P storm is a hurrican yet and where is it going?
ike this is the first recon since the only one they did yesterday when he was a td. so yes it was an estimate
GFS keeps Phillipe as a fish storm
Folks!!! we are seeing the start of a more northward track in the computer models. I would not be surprised in the least if Rita follows jeane and Fransis' foot steps and tracks across central FL.The longer if moves NW the more of a threat it will be for central FL.NHC thinks it will resume a west or west-north-west movement later. I dont think so!!!!
Hey hurricane79, could ya please check my blog. Not to sound desperate, but you sound like a true pro, and I would love to see what you think about what I have to say.
dunno. cat 4 looks good to me


cane
.4 will only put the models back to where they were earlier today which goes thru the keys. she will go thru the keys and not hit the florida penisula
818. SEFL
The local weather statement for west palm beach from the NWS in Miami, puts the chances of hurricane force winds at less than 3% for Miami-Dade county and less than 2% for Broward and Palm Beach counties.
lefty you seem surprised by P's latest recon, what was the lastest movement? it looked like it had moved more to the wnw on the last couple of frames
HURRICANE 79 No offense but your not the NHC and if your going to make a map up yourself at least put a disclaimer on it that you made that and its just your opinion..People see that S*** and freak out... Just an observation
wayne she is not moving nw. that motion is note as the lsince the last 2 cenetr fixes it reformed to the nw. she is moving about due west and will not move much more north than she is now.


the ridge is builing east and will keep her south of florida and over the straights
I would like to remind all of what Katrina did at her landfalls a slight jog to the south in florida changed the situation for thousands of people, perhaps millions. A jog to the east in La. changed the situation for millions of people on the gulf. The NHC didn't expect Katrina to come right over their HQ. What I'm saying is that anything could happen as it gets close to Fl. that could change the situation for lots of people, so to speak as if something is definite is not to wise.
Let us remember though that it may move alittle north of west tonite..but it will probably bend alittle south of west during tomorrow as high presuure continues to build to the north..
I think some people are making too much of a NNW movement in the center fix which may really be a reformation of the center in a storm basically moving WNW.
rescue casue he is alot stronger than the nhc said. i am not sure on the motion but it appeasrs inline with the nhc forcast
826. IKE
The wator vapor clearly shows a strong high centered in Texas that stretches eastward crossing Florida. Rita will probably bend back to the west because of this massive high. I would say the straits is a good bet.
Rita said to be moving northwest.

8pm BAMM, which is the latest model, puts strongest part of Rita through Miami and New Orleans.
FtLauderdalepunk I have a disclaimer on my website that the image is on. Anyways, nobody knows the future for sure, including the NHC.
888888889 where is Jimmie C?
Leftyy..LOL..man you read my mind sometimes..lol..hey punk leave 79 alone he is one of the good guys here..we know hes not the NHC, but he gives us all good info..
Well this surely is interesting. Pops got a generator last year after two hits and lots of wasted food. I am trying to find the actual wind speeds at landfall but let's assume that Jeanne, the stronger of the two, was cat 3 at 120 sustained. The humble CBS home held up pretty well. The roof got messed up a bit and needed partial replacement but they survived. Dad said the wind was worse, but overall, he said it was faster moving than Frances (I was there for that wench!)Basically he said, "in and out" and on with life. Still I think high winds are high winds whether they last for a few minutes (aka tornados) or hours.
I will probably relocated in the next three years and already, I am eyeing hurricane proof homes. If I had the cash, I would get that dome home in the panhandle that spit in Ivan's eye! Its totally round and the family made it through fine. I can't swing that, but homefront contructs homes with hardie board on a steel skeleton for a reasonable price. Three were in the path of Charley and came through with flying colors.
I'd appreciate if anyone can point me to a link that has a graphic layout of the actual windspeeds of Frances and Jeanne at landfal.
sebastianjer

the situation is alot different. when katrina made landfall in florida 2 major models ofrcasted a southern jog that she made. right now thru three days all major models keep her moving thru the straoghts. now if one of the major models shifts north over the peninsula than thats different but right now all majormodels are south of the peninsula
Leftty I just sent you mail PLEASE read SOON.
hurricane i appologize then.... that was not meant to sound as if i were jumping on you...When I saw your link I was saying to myself when did this happen...Then i saw it is what your best guess is.. Nothing wrong with that
835. Peff
FLTPunk....79 is a meteorologist (certified). His maps and predictions are as good as any you'll find out there.
I still see that w to wnw motion at 280 degrees with Rita. As stated before Florida Keys most likely destination of center of Rita. Cat 2 for sure possible cat3 passing just north of Key west.
caneman:
Link and Link
The main model shift that caught my eye was the TPC models consensus: BAMM, BAMD, LBAR, and A98E. earlier today, they were roughly at 24.5N 83W in 72 hours. At the 00Z run this past hour, their consensus is at 27.5N 83W at 72 hours. A shift of 3 degrees Northward. If someone has a link to a good upper air data map to show this ridge, please send it out! Thanks
Lefty
What are considered major models?
Its all good Lauderdale.
Coupla comments:

Alicia was a Gulf storm that I lived through - although the NWS has her as a Cat3 - max onshore winds were clocked at less than 100 mph. Highest storm surge was at my neighborhood (Seabrook) 12ft.

If a real Cat3 made landfall where Alicia did (San Luis Pass) you'd see some serious damage in the greater Houston area. Houston has levees too - the city itself is too high for storm surges, but the petrochemical industry and about 1.5 million people live below 20ft. elevation.
hurricane79, I like your maps. Please keep me informed of this storm, time permitting.
I sell shoes in the Mall - I have maps too
gfdl,gfs,cmc,ukmet,nogaps : the major models
SEBA MAJOR MODELS

BAMM GFS GFDL UKMET NOGAPS
846. Manny
I remember now why I avoid this board. You have to filter through so much bad posting that you it is difficult fo find the good stuff.

79, good track, I buy into it at well.
Link

Why is this so different from WU models?
Any "experts" here want to out some money where their mouths are?
I put my guess out alread weatherwannabe
Link


I'm not liking the Lbar or A98E models
tornadoty, the blog looks good. one question, your intensity forecast for a 2 to 4 storm, is that 1st landfall, (FL) or second?
Could any of are resident experts explain to us newbies what it is about the Lbar or A98E models that has them going on a more northward track for Rita?
I want to hold weather "experts" accountable for their predictions. Any takers?
azduck....I was on El Dorado a couple blocks west of Space Center in my parents house for Alicia.

I remember watching Ed Brandon on Ch. 13 repeating the NWS out of Alvin predicting a landfall well south of SLP, while watching the radar once she started moving again going straight towards SLP and the west end of the island. And they were STILL calling for landfall well south of there!
cane, those are the worst models toforcast a hurricane speciallly a strong one. thats why they are not used muhc and are not a major model. that means when they diverge from the other models they get little notice.
856. OBXER
79 can you post yyour link so i dant have to search all over creation to find it .Thanks
weatherwannabe, I will write out a check fo $100 to the red cross in the name of areas affected by Rita if I am wrong.
caneman, looks like most people don't like'm. Not trusting'm too much, anyway
there not good models thats why. they rarely are accurate and only come into line when a storm is making landfall. they are not used by the nhc. u need to not focus opn those 2 crappy models and look at these ones


gfdl or gfdn, gfs, ukmet, nogaps, cmc or canadian
hurricane79 - I deeply repsect that gesture.
79 how storng is this trough in 5 days that is forecast to erode the ridge.
863. OBXER
Thanks 79
First landfall, hurricane79.
Looks like a cat 2 for Rita at landfall now that I've had some time to gather a bit more information. By no means am I an expert but based on SST, it has plenty of gas to draw on.
hurricane79, your thoughts?
Weatherwannabe I predict Palacios TX, 941 mb, 115 kts. What is YOUR prediction?
and of those major models the gfdl and gfs are 2 of the best
I am thinking Broward and Miami-Dade will go under a tropical storm warning/Hurricane Watch for the 11pm Advisory
It will strike land within 100 miles of Jim Cantore
hurricane79, I'd go 105-115 at first landfall unless the shear picks up a bit. I guess that is the hard part, right? Trying to predict what will weaken a storm?
Are the Rita tracks really shifting to the north? I'm in palm beach county, should I be concerned at all? Anyone?
Yeah i'll bet a dollar..ok...
874. OBXER
Hey wannabe i graduated with a psych degree so i guess acorsing to you that i can say without a doubt you are a moron
I. believe it or not, agree with wannabe lol
south of the Keys as a CAT2...Then near Houston as a CAT 3..Ok i am putting in my dollar...lol..
It will strike land within 100 miles of Jim Cantore

Don't they all do that? :)
dos any one no what are the winds like in the P storm right now can some one give me a update on it
79...how reliable is the A98E model?
i agree lefty and throw the gfs in there with them very interesting the accuracy of the japaneese models not surprised they the masters of electronics lol. ps those models take info
given to them by humans hmm. last time i checked humans are not perfect only one was think he was from bethlehem. 79 on the spot where is final landfal no isodore nonsense i hope.
Any new info on Rita?
SAINT, there are hints of the ridge shifting East by 4 to 5 days which will create an opportunity for Rita to have a Northerly component to her movements.

Caneman, from what I can see, probable winds between 80 MPH (1) and 100 MPH(2). A lot depends on her forward speed and where, or if she hits.
Any new info on Rita?

That's what I'm trying to find out
hey ray tampas 2-0 i told you cadillac was a fine ride.
79..

Based on your current projections for Rita, do you think we in Sarasota need to be 'shuttering'? THX
SAINT, there are hints of the ridge shifting East by 4 to 5 days which will create an opportunity for Rita to have a Northerly component to her movements.

Would this be before 1st landfall in FL or once in the gulf?
SAINT: on the spot, I would have to give you a range, between Marathon and Homestead. She will not have a Southerly component until she passes Florida.
lefty here i take up for you and your bashing experts again and singing the praises of nhc again i think you should let the experts be experts and the nhc not be god you might catch less flack arrogance is a major pitfall most of us have amateurs that criticize career experts is a sign of jealousy. just a friendly advice that goes to you to hawk.


Saint, why the heck are you including me? All I did was defend myself against a statement I felt was insulting and flat out wrong. I neither worship nor trash any person or agency.

Cosmic, with regard to Norcross I just politely said he was not right if he said the surface center was already at 23N when recon confirmed it was not. I did not hear anything about his forecast for Rita's future track so I couldn't comment on that. I did say the center may be pulled more north, eventually to 23N, by the deepening convection.

For the most part today I have let Lefty, the NHC, Norcross, et al try to figure out exactly where the track would take Rita near the keys. I mostly like to analyze what is going on with the storm in the 0-24 hours span... intensity and short term track/center reformation.
yech....I hate hurricanes!
Hey all Sebastianjer said it right we all need to wait until it at least gets in the gulf on tuesday, then maybe we will have a better chance on where she is going...
79, if Rita does take the track you are predicting, what effects on SW Florida do you think the storm will have? Since we will be on the northern side as well.
Sarasota (should) be 100 miles North of Rita. Expect similar conditions that we in Central Florida saw during Katrina, maybe a little breezier. This all could change a little in the next 24 hours though.
I guess its up to mother nature at this point. Wish someone had a crystal ball though :)
Naples, you should have similar conditions that you had when Katrina moved across South Florida. Winds, some rain, etc. Her center should be crossing over areas near the middle/upper Keys.
Agreed caneman
Rita is getting better organized. I didn't realize the winds were up to 50mph already. Any concern for Palm Beach County?
Hope I don't see Cantore in the FL Panhandle.
soory hawk you are very polite on here just did not want you to
get drug into the trap on this blog that annoys a lot of us a
mateurs bashing experts except the nhc they are infallibe lol.enjoy your input hawk wish you and 79 were the ones on here more often i guess like me your to busy to spend to much time on computer. god bless.
Thanks 79, we didn't see much at all when Katrina went through, like a typical afternoon thunderstorm. Hopefully that will be the case but will keep a close eye on her.
longtime lurker, first time poster...
just how big is TS Rita? I'm in West Broward, what should I be expecting if it stays South and passes over the Keys??
79 if Rita does go a little north what strength can it reach? Will it stay a tropical storm?
rita will move thru the florida straights. areas as far north as miami could see hurricane condiditons
Hawkeye....I meant no disrepect. I didn't mean to insult. I also don't look at NHC or Norcross as gods. Nor do I trash them. We agree. I understand and respect your opinion. I think it's smart to only go out 24 hours. As we all know, the further out you go the more error there is. And for the record the NHC and Norcross have both said that there is moderate to strong uncertainty in their forecast beyond 24 hours. Notice who I leave out.
Hi guys my first post here:-) Dont you think thaat the high pressure north of the Gulf will keep her out of the Centeral Gulf States?
Rita is looking like a 2 headed monster in the latest IR
907. Peff
79...have you seen the last couple of frames of the IR loop for Rita? It almost looks like she's splitting in two (not likely, I know). Do you know if that's ever happenned before?

Thanks

Rita IR Loop
leelee.....WELCOME.
.
.
I don't make predictions, but I feel safe in answering your question. If that is to happen you should expect 30-40MPH winds at most. The only serious but rare possibility would be a tornado. Tornados are quite common on the upper right side of a storm, but the chances of geting hit by one are very slim.
909. Peff
LOL wannabe :)
closed cirulation will not split in 2. thats just the high clouds from the 2 strong areas of convection bloing up. basically ur seeing the growth of the cdo
Nice timimg Peff lol
Dr. Masters has a new post, and it sounds scary. ~:/
I think she may have a southerly component when she nears Florida as the ridge builds in from the North...
Link

Hot and hotter..........not good news
lakeworth, her wind field has tropical storm force winds 70 miles North of the cEnter, but that can expand as she strengthens.
weatherwannabe what is your prediction for Rita?
917. Peff
Thanks lefty!....thought you might have gotten tired of the bashing you've been taking, and took a break. Glad to see you're still here! Sure looks weird on radar, but your explanation makes good sense.
Dr. Masters has a new post!!!
see everyone on the next post
the bamm models r takin rita toward louisina hope thats not the case
to hawk and 79 thought you would find thi interesting. group of young metrlo. finishing thier dgrees on coast studying katrina
told me today at hospital we were having lunch thier proff. sent them down here to learn more about storms after they hit is where they gain most valuable research not during storm. they were from p.s.u and o.s.u and wisconsin, strange how these midwest schools have to teach us so xcalled coast experts about
storms. ugh p.s.u is where all the accu weather pros are from.
did not want to say much about this because most on here onnly want to experience a storm they informed its the aftermath where they get vital info.noaa also here p.s i rather not say what they think about max mayfield not very flattering lol.
Saint, I spend all day on the computer watching satellite loops, reading discussions, etc... I am 100% hurricane nut.


I looked on WFOR's site but couldn't find anything written by Norcross so I still don't know if he agrees or disagrees with the NHC track south of the keys, but at this point I think Rita will track somewhere from the northern keys to the southern Florida straits. That's a big range and I'm not exactly going out on a limb, but I do think the center will not directly hit the soutern part of the Florida peninsula. I also think the BAM models that now take Rita to New Orleans are not right and the storm will likely move in the vicinity of due west across much of the gulf.
boiredfish - we were pretty much neighbors. CLHS class of 1988!