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TD 17 coming soon--and a scientific first!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:06 PM GMT on September 16, 2005

TD 17?
Substantial deep convection has developed in the past few hours in association with well-organized tropical wave about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Spiral banding is more and more conspicuous with each visible satellite image, and if the present trend continues, NHC wil probably initiate advisories on Tropical Depression 17 tonight or tomorrow morning.

The system is in a favorable environment for intensification, now that it has gotten farther from the Equator and can take advantage of the increased spin a higher Coriolis force offers at higher latitudes. Wind shear has decreased to 5 - 10 knots, and the upper-level winds appear favorable--a small upper-level anticyclone is over the wave, and should provide good outflow. Some weak outflow is apparent to the south, and moderately good outflow to the north. Water temperatures are about 29.5C (85F), and increase to about 30C (86F) near the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The early track models are unreliable. The GFDL disippates the system immediately, and the BAMM has been flip-flopping, alternately taking it west-northwest into the Caribbean or northwest, missing the Leeward Islands entirely. The GFS and UKMET models both take the system to the northernmost Leeward Islands, just east of Puerto Rico. The correct solution will depend upon how quickly the system develops, and how quickly a large mid-Atlantic trough north of the islands lifts out. All interests in the Lesser Antilles Islands need to monitor this storm, it has the potential to grow into a hurricane about the time it reaches the islands on Monday.


Figure 1. Early track model runs for the disturbance approaching the Lesser Antilles.

Blob northeast of Puerto Rico
A disturbance northeast of Puerto Rico continues to generate some impressive clusters of thunderstorms, but is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression until Saturday at the earliest. This disturbance is expected to move westward towards the Cuba and the Bahama Islands the next few days. Strong upper level winds out of the west are creating about 10 - 20 knots of shear over the disturbance, down from 20 knots yesterday. The shear should continue to drop the next few days, and may be low enough by Sunday to allow a tropical depression to form. The system could threaten South Florida and Cuba as it continues to track west. Several computer models indicate that the disturbance is more likely to develop once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, and pose the greatest threat to Mexico. There are no early computer model track points for this disturbance yet, I will post them when they become available.

ITCZ
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of strong thuderstorms between Africa and South America, has historically been the source of many of the severe hurricanes that affect us in September. These "Cape Verde" type storms, so named because they originate from disturbances in the ITCZ near the Cape Verde Islands, have yet to make an appearance during this peak time of hurricane season. The ITCZ has become very active the past few days, and is forecast to continue to remain active the next two weeks. I expect at least one major Cape Verdes type hurricane to form by the end of September. The main activity is across the eastern and central Atlantic is at about 8N latitude, which is probably too far south to generate a tropical cyclone. If some of this activity works its way to 9N, we may have a better chance of development in this area.

Ophelia: a scientific first
A scientific first was accomplished in Ophelia this afternoon--the first ever remotely-piloted aircraft to do a successful penetration of a tropical cyclone flew through Ophelia at 2,500 foot altitude. The drone measured winds of 74 knots. The project is described in detail on the NOAA Hurricane Research Division's web site. The objective is to use the pilotless aircraft in regions where it is too dangerous for humans to fly:

Simply stated, continuous observation of thermodynamic (temperature and moisture) and kinematic (wind) structure of the near-surface hurricane environment has never been documented in a hurricane. This environment, where the atmosphere meets the sea, is critically important since it is where the ocean's warm water energy is directly transferred to the atmosphere just above it. The tropical cyclone surface layer is also important because it is where we find the strongest winds in a hurricane and coincidentally, the level at which most of us live (i.e. at/near the surface). As such, observing and ultimately better understanding this region of the storm is crucial if we hope to improve our ability to make accurate forecasts of TC intensity change. Enhancing this predictive capability would not only save our economy billions of dollars but more importantly it would save countless lives.

Well done, Aerosonde Corporation and NOAA!

Ophelia has intensified a bit this afternoon, with the pressure falling 3 mb. This will be short-lived, however. In fact, the 5pm EDT hurricane hunter eye report found the pressure had risen 2 mb. Ophelia will pass out of the warm Gulf Stream waters and encounter waters as cold as 70F Saturday. She will still generate some trouble on her trek north; expect a 1 - 3 foot storm surge for southeast Massachusetts and Nova Scotia, 1 - 3 inches of rain, and sustained winds up to 40 mph as Ophelia brushes by.

While Ophelia did dump it share of heavy rain--around 5 - 7 inches near Wilmington, and over 10 inches around Cape Fear, south of Wilmington--the rain was mostly confined to the coast, and did not cause widespread flooding problems. Ophelia's winds also did relatively light damage--sustained hurricane force winds (74 mph) were only observed at one location, on Cape Lookout near the Outer Banks. The highest wind gusts measured were 92 mph on Cape Lookout and 83 mph at Cape Hatteras. The storm surge was what caused the main havoc with Ophelia--surges heights of up to 10 - 12 feet were observed along the Neuse River north of Wilmington. Preliminary damage estimates put Ophelia's damage to North Carolina over $10 million, but less than $100 million.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from the Morehead City radar for Ophelia's passage.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I mean for a man that reads book upside down
No, it was Halliburton
No GW just appointed an incompetant to do that
i would like to get back to the weather and the storm dos any one like to do that too?
Good Nite Amorris sweet dreams and come back tomorrow..
u guys check my blog for the story of my chase of ophelia and the pics i have so far from that chase
That would have been Cheney - Bush is busy learning how to ride a bike
Hey leftty I will check it tomorrow getting late and I am glade you got to chase the storm...
Here. Knock yourselves out Link
I think Bush must have S__T in someones cereal this morning.lmao.
See what happens when things are slow? Dubya, troll dolls, japanese mafia, and whatever the heck 88 was talking about.
sebastianjer , why stop now?
LMAO Sub.
leftyy420 how do i get to your blog i would to see them
Leffty-nice pics, nite all. Sleep well wannabee.
lmao.CCFLA.
Good one Sub..there u go wannabe have a nice night..lol..
oh are you calling a heck you heck
Just call me Coconut. Maybe it's late but everytime someone writes CCFLA I have to say my name out loud to get the intials! ;)
So is the wave going to head out to see or do you think it would turn back W if it took the current GFDL solution? Any educated geusses?
88889g just click on my name
Yes Coconut. Sorry.
sj it won't be ableto head out to sea. the ridge over bermuda will build in stronger and the ridge over the gulf will build ne over most of the eastern us. this one has landfall if it develops written all over it
No need to be sorry :) I didn't take offense or anything like that.
So, lefty, do you see it getting stronger before landfall in the southern us or heading into the gulf?
That is what I thought I was seeing at the end of the model runs. Where all that happens is the key. S. Florida to New England-lol?
It could move west as ridge will develop to the north of it..And ridging will build over the E. U.S..So if it doesnt make it too far north it will probably bend back west.
sj u want to play some halo in a bit. i am watching bill maher right now but will want to play when it goes off
Going to bed, must work in the AM :( I will be back in full force tomorrow night, especially with the tropics heating up. In the meantime, if you didnt catch my forecast track: Link
no i think from va south is the biggest threat and if it hits florida the threat extends to the gulf.


weatehrguy thats exactly what i was saying
goodnight, Hurricane 79
night 79
have a good nite all..man i need to get an x-box..lol..but then my wife really wouldnt see me..lol..see ya all.
night 79
night weatherguy
Night WG03
thats funny leftyy we almost said the same thing..lol..have a good nite..you too 79 see ya tomorrow.
Check mail Lefty.
I'm out of here too. Good night all. It's been entertaining and informative as usual.

Oh, and 88, Cantore runs with scissors ... just kidding.
NIGHT 79.
dvr is not broken, i recoded it and am now watching it with the wife. it be over in a couple minutes.

imeant to thank you for that flight 91 heads up. i recorded it and watched it with the wife a couple days ago, was really moving man
Nite weather guy.
Good night Cnut. JK. Coconut.lol.
TTYL
ok sj lobby time
It's starting to feel like the Waltons...

night ma, night pa, night stormjunkie....
Still have not watched it yet, but I will this weekend. No sweat. I am in the lobby.
will i be up with a new TD17 and do you think that we may get down to W
hey, ccfla, you still here?
lobby?
Yeah, just about to take off. What's up?
Hi david!!! I have been off line all evening...what did I miss?
David? Are you talking to me? Not my name.

Anyway, it got pretty interesting in here. I'd recommend reading back. We had trolls petting blog police, the NWS being controlled by George W. and Japanese mafia. you name it!
ccfla, please forgive the intrusion...you've got mail :)
hi aquak9 if you do show all comments then you find out there been a lot of lol going on her tonight
I do? How do I get it? Will it come to my regular email account?
dANG, CCFLA, MUSTA BEEN A LOOOOONG NITE. OOOoops sorry bout the caps..Gee I just wanted to check up on the weather. I figure 80-90 hours and we'll have phillippe...but i don't feel like re-reading 5 hours of posts...what's the general consensus in here?
no CoconutCreekFLA i am not talking to you
ccfla, go to the top of weather underground, and look to the left column....should be something in red that says you have mail...click on it...let me know if you can't get to it
well this to tell you there been a lot of lol on her tonight
i know david, but I 've been up since 4:15 am and I am really tired...you keep up pretty good, so I hoped you'd tell me.
Did mr cantore leave new england or is he still up there?
oh, lol (lots of laughter) is a good thing. We all need to laugh sometimes!
Aqua, you have mail.

Am I David?
mr jim is now back at the weather ch
you are david too?
So TD17 hasn't appeared yet. The PR Blob is now the Virgin Blob (i.e., is near the virgin islands). The wave east of barbados is getting stronger. We don't really know where anything will go but it appears that they will stay south due to a ridge north of bermuda. Things got nutty when there was no new information and everyone got off topic.
no, 8888899. you're the only david I know!!! sorry to confuse you, coconutcreek. Well ya'll, I've got to get some sleep. David, don't stay up too late. And coconutcreek....it's almost 2am...g'nite, ya'll!
thanks, ccfla
goodnight!
i am going to bed to so night all sorry about all the lol i have done today night
goodnight.
Hello All

I'm trying to get a location where all of our blogers live want to then make a directory that I will post on my blog
just looking for city (and maybe location in that city if it is large) and state..no other info needed or wanted..Thanks to all who will participate in this endevor..
tks...please make post on the first thread of my blog.
would like to include all that live outside of the states
also..will be interesting to see how wide spread our blogers are in the world..

please, if you can give the gift of life (blood),please contact your local Red Cross and make an appointment..the pint of blood you give my save 3 lives..and blood is really needed in the gulf coast..they lost their supply
of blood because of Katrina..and donors due to displacement..
Thank you all
we have 100 blogers that have posted in the directory
remember the first thread in my blog..
Hey CoconutCreek, when you say south do you mean that as in they will not go north out into the Atlantic?
Prettuy sure that is what he meant.
pretty......that is
When they will declare that wave 15N 60W as a TD
most people think sometime today and most likely after the recon mission to investigate. I am more interested in the PR blob though. it is looking better (good flair up) in the last few hours.
yeah but i'm interested in that other one because if it develops it could be a strong storm
it looks very organised to me...
580. IKE
The system east of the islands is soon to be a TD according to the 8:05am EDT discussion on the atlantic. It appears to be moving west or even slightly south of west. The computer models have it going north-northwest, but it's not doing that now. Looks rather impressive on satellite.
ike thnx for saying that i thought i saw something like that too and its kind of shit it moves south west... because it will go through the carribean then
582. IKE
According to everything I've read...it's suppose to stay as a fish storm, but things can change. The system north of PR is expected to keep moving west into Mexico. Somehow I can't see that happening...it's almost October. Systems usually don't go all the way to Mexico...a front or trough picks them up. It could be that way though if the strong high positions itself over Texas. Suppose to be record heat here in the Florida panhandle today.
yeah but its september... only the 17th so the chance is big it could move west
if this thing enters the carribean america can better watch out..
585. IKE
True about the system continuing west.

The other soon-to-be-depression east of the islands could be one to keep an eye on if it gets into the Carribean.
Morning Coconut :)
The ants here are digging into our stairwell, looking like their going inside for the rest of the season :)
They've stop making hills and would rather use our homes :)
BTW, does anyone know if the Canadian model is still calling for that PR blob to move over the northern BAhamas, while everyone else is taking in west to over Cuba ???
SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS ABOUT TO BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
I just looked at it and it is now taking it furthur south as well.
000
WONT41 KNHC 171216
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON
THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 AM AST...1500Z.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN

is this the one near the Windward Islands or near PR, Jupiter ?
591. IKE
It's the one near the windward islands.
The virgin island blob.
The Canadian Model was taking the wave that is currently near the Virgin Islands towards the Northern Bahamas and South Florida. Now the model has shifted further south.
594. IKE
Anyone have coordinates on the td east of the islands. Appears to be near 12-13 north, 55 west???
seems right... There saying that its 300 Miles or so E of Barbados with saying the actual coordinates on Accuweather.
596. IKE
And appears to be moving west. I bet the system N of PR might be what they think will influence TD 17....and steer it toward the N-NW. Maybe if that system doesn't develop, TD 17 may go more westward. It'll be interesting to watch what happens.
where is the new model can someone give me a link?
i dont like it moves W
Eeep! Uncertainty is certain :)
ok, so i was just reading through the posts....lefty..why bother with this democratic oenail....its a waste of your time....these blogs are for weather...you know that thing?....so why even listen to him babble and play the blame bush game for everything in life....its retarded...lol...dont respond ...its that easy...lol...

so yea, when are we getting these 2 depressions flaring up:P
Good mornin' all!

Check this link. It has the models for both the Virgin Islands Blob and the one off Barbados..
Link
watchingnva , jsut happened to read your hyprbole - you can only blame a person for what they are responsible and when you are the Pres of the USA you are resp for a whole hell of a lot. I'm done talking about politics

then stop talking...its that simple...hes responsible for alot....but trust me...the responsability goes to many other places too...so dont be naive and stop listening to the pres. that tries so hard to get people to hate bush...i find politics quite funny personnal...lol...now im done
Wannabe,

Is Bush also responsible for you being a dumbass?
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WONT41 KNHC 171216
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT 370 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON
THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 AM AST...1500Z.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER BEVEN



FLPanhandle - shove it pal
Listen up!

this is all a waste of time. I personally am no fan of Bush and his cronies but personal attacks are not going to change anyones mind.

First we seek to understand.. but nobody will understand anothers point of view if they are being attacked by them.

Let's focus on the weather, please!
608. IKE
pleeze...no politics...

Looks like both sytems are developing. The system north of PR may not make it all the way west to Mexico. A model or 2 has it turning some to the north when it enters the gulf.
Ike: it does look like that. Mybahamas looks to be affected regardless of the model. After that it could go any way. From what I've gathered on this board, some models are better than others for certain weather factors but I don't know exactly how and which should be better predictors at this point. Anyone?
Maybe you should change your name to I_DONT_WANT_TO_BE_A_DUMBASS_WANNABE.
And believe me I am not your Pal.
FLPanhandle go find a nice lake and jump in
Here we go !
The blob near have some news models the GDFL put him into the Gulf ands treath (THEM!) State of South again ! Link
I am a big fan of Bush and I get very upset when people parrot exactly what they hear from the liberal press without thinking for themselves. I spent twenty three years in the military preserving Wannabe's right to say anything she pleases. It does not mean I have to listen to it without calling her on it.
614. IKE
I'm not that gifted on the BEST models. The GFS is reliable, but isn't always right. It has the sytem N of PR as an open wave moving west into Mexico. The NAM isn't that reliable...has it east of Florida as a storm in 84 hours. Some other models take it into the gulf. I just can't see it making it all the way to Mexico, but I could be wrong. A strong high is suppose to influence it westward...but by the end of next week a trough is suppose to head down the eastern section of the country..that might influence it northward?
FLPanhandle nobody cares.
This whole setup looks like a mess in the making. Will be more interesting after we get the latest models esp. after the systems get better organized in the next day or so. Both systems may end up in the gulf. Arrggg. Monday is "Talk like a Pirate Day". Aye matey, I feels a bad wind about ta blow down on me ship!
Ugh! I wish I had a crystal ball :)
Alright then Wannabe. Let's stick to the weather. I think that is what everyone here cares about.
Aye, matey!

Do you know the times that the model runs come out?
i this got up and i see we may have TD17 very soon what is going on with that?
Hey 8888889 are they sending out the Cantore Express to check out the Blob?
Oh Wannabe you are quite the resentful Liberal Bush Basher.
FLPanhandle - no poitics - weather - how about that Blob? There is also ANOTHER wave coming off Africa that looks impressive. And then there is TD 17 - The season is FAR from over, eh?
888889 - I didnt understand a word of that lol - huh?
OK. Weather only. I hope that we don't get hit again after Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina. I am definitely tired of all the storms and will soon have to change my user name when I move.
i said that i this got up and do not want to start so jim went in a row boat
The las image of the caribean do not show a well organization of the "blob" near of PR. See this
I am worried about both storms getting into the Gulf. With the total destruction in Ms. and La. they definitely don't need any storms.
FLPanhandle - can't blame you. Here's hoping you guys don't get hit. The panhandle is my favorite vacation spot
what is up with TD17 is it comeing very soon?
Weatherwannabe: I just sent you an email.
td 17 has formed what a year
I believe the models should be updated in an hour or two. I agree Africa looks interesting. Two strong waves.
Got to go play golf - don't let any interesting discussions happen while I'm gone
Flpanhandle I just dropped you an email.
flpanhandle. the latest gfdl on the blob in the virgin islands does not look togood. blows up a major cane crossing the keys and it turns north towqards the flphandle
it not on the weather underground what one is it for TD17 what are the winds in it?
Okay, stupid question coming...

What's the conversion for UTC to EST?
Looks like we got two serious systems to focus on. Y'all are right, the northern gulf coast certainly has taken enough storms lately, and people are literally at their wits end in the disaster area. Prayers for all ... for the rest of the season.

With regards to the rest just >>> ignore, obscene, and spam as appropriate.

thanks for the link, Lefty. Do you know what the estimated margin of error is in miles for these models?
Lefty hope the model is wrong. Looks like we haven't come close to seeing the end of this season. The big "O" is begining to look like a "break in the action".
omg the virgin island blob is a cat 5 as it crosses the keys and turns towards the panhandle and gulf area. omg
cocunut is to early to tell all i know is a cat 5 in the gulf is not a joke and thatswhat it shows
When looking at the colors on the model Lefty sent, the lefthand side guide indicates the redder colors are cat 4 and 5. The pix of the storm has some reds in it. Is this model stating that this will be a major hurricane in Florida?
yea just got up and the first thing i look at is the GFDL on the Virgin Island disturbance..I thought it was a bad dream..But again, very early, look at how the GFDL was going back and forth on TD 17..We shall see..
ignore latest message. Looks like we crossed paths.
where is TD17 right and will it be come a hurrican a cat 5 love it
Any have an idea of where the VI blob will go and if the East cost of Fl has a chance of getting hit. I live about an hour or so north of Tampa (citrus County area)

thanks
Yep, looks like a 4 or 5 is a possibility. Will have to see if the storm develops more first. Thanks for the link Lefty.
weatherguy, it may notform but with the temps of the waters in the bahamas this is a real threwat. the canadian blew her up last night so thats 2 modles so far
654. IKE
Another cat 5....isn't the GFDL a pretty reliable model?
OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG, and, OMG!!!!!!!!!!!! The GFDL brings Invest 96 (the blob) to a 137 KT 922 MB cat. 5 in the SE Gulf. Oh, and if that wasn't bad enough, it also turns it NW in the general direction of the FLA Panhandle.
amorris click my link i provided down below. thats all we know and i must note its one model run so far
I see I am a day late and a dollar short once again.
am i still sleeping. i will be back when i wakeup
torn its cool man.
One of the better models although none are that good at forecasting intensity. However, the fact that the model brings the system to this strength makes it (the system) bear close watching. If I lived in Florida, I would be getting alittle nervious. Speaking of nervious I think it time for my first cup of java.
yeah i dont like it leftyy..lol..hopefully it wont form, but as this wave moves west the conditions will become more favorable..and with High pressure building to its north unfortunately it cant hook out to sea..
yes we have a TD17
Thanks for the link Lefty. I may not be taking my soon to be 21 year old to Las Vegas for his birthday on the 23rd. Hope something changes between now and then.

Jupiter, I replied.
664. IKE
First cup....heck I'm on my 6th or 7th. No wonder I'm nervous...I can see a spin in the blob N of PR..appears to be drifting westward slowly.
WeatherW I am hereon the east cost of FL watching to see what it does. I am getting a little nervious being i live right on the golf about an hour north of tampa
8888888889gg:
Do you have a link where I can see the TD 17. For the blob near PR nothing going to happend he will be dissipate in a few days.
weatherguy its not the conditions i anm worried about. its those sea surface temps here is a link. check out the temps around the bahamas


Link
I missed some of this discussion, what is the forecast timing on the blob developement and what about td17, any models on its path? Thanks
Nice and HOT
jc u need to see the gfdl. it make the blob a cat 5 headed to the panhandle of florida
There is no surface low near that blob right now in the Virgin Islands and TD 17 could inhibit its outflow anyways I'm not too concerned with computer models because the storm has not even formed yet!
the blob needs to be watched. here is the link to the gfdl


Link
any one no where the Discussion is for TD17 so i can look at it
sports guy allmodels formsomething there now and its right where 4-5 systems including katrina formed. its the one u should be most worried about. td 17 is 9 days away from land and the blob is 4-5 days and threatens and area that does not need a major cane
675. IKE
There's definitely a spin on the BLOB N of PR. Appears to be a lessening of any shear. The water temps in the Bahamas are boiling. Doesn't look good..could be some development heading toward eastern Florida...keys and then into the gulf.
leftyy420 : I'm not really care about the computer model because they are not sure.
yeah i was just looking at the temps..not good..Also the latest GFS bends TD 17 back west eventually, which we were talking about last night...oh well get ready for a crazy week...
The blob is expected to move W, and TD 17 is expected to move NW/NNW, I don't think that outflow will be a problem as long as movement of the blob continues, unfortuneatly. :(
679. IKE
I agree that TD 17 is over a week away from the USA. The blob is of more immediate importance and the fact that it's heading west isn't good.
Lefty I couldn't agree with you more. Although either system is something to worry about. The PR system is definately getting better organized.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

If you look at the atlantic visible loop you can see it beginning to spin up. Holy cow! What a mess in the making!
lol jc ok man
wow the gfs has cyclones everywhere lol
683. IKE
You have to rely some on the computer models. You can't discount ALL of them. The NHC doesn't.
gfdl called katrina as a major cane so i am sticking with my lovely gfdl. i think this next 10-14 days will be a thing to remebr. atleast 3 naybe 4 storms who knows maybe more. the world is falling apart
Frankly I don't believe, at least at the moment, that the two system are close enough to disturb each others development. We may have 2 (looking farther East 3 or 4) major systems to deal with.
I know leftyy i couldnt keep up with all the L's on the GFS map..lol..
Lefty beat me to the punch. lol
yeah leftyy i just scared my wife..she doesnt like when i talk about hurricanes..lol..she just wants to know when its time to leave, other then that she doesnt want to talk about it..lol..
000
WTNT32 KNHC 171435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...13.0 N... 55.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


Lefty do oyu have a link for where the gfs has cyclones everyehere
C'est l'image Sat the TD 17 : Image TD17
TD17 is projected to be a hurricane as soon as Monday. We may have Phillipe late TODAY (wow). TD17 is about to cross over some very warm waters so it'll be interesting to see what happens...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
Eep! I will watch to see if a low develops. Until then, I'll just be vigil with the PR blob :(
nate didn't interupt ophelia any. i think its fool hardy to think that td 17 would interfere with the blob and to think the blob will not form. this is 2005 and we are already at the o storm. anything that could form has. we saw a 902 cat 5 in the gulf 3 weeks ago. a 902 cat 5. this has beena year all others will be compared to
I don't get on here as much as I would like (kids, wife was in the hospital all of last week) but it is pleasure participating when I get a chance. Has StormTop vanished or did he finally return? I know that what he wanted to do wouldn't be conducive to a long life span.
696. IKE
Looks like TD 17 should go east of the USA. The blob is of more importance to Florida and the gulf states.
latest gfs model. new one be out in a couple of hours


Link
465
WTNT42 KNHC 171450
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS A CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...AS 40 KT WINDS SEEN IN A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD RAIN CONTAMINATION
PROBLEMS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND HOW MUCH THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE REFORMED DURING THE NIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS
ARE UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY
WELL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FARTHER EAST
GFDL AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE MORE WESTERLY BAM MODELS AND
LBAR.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING
SHOULD OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT BY 120 HR...AND THIS A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR THE GFDL.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER THE POSITION AND
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE ARE BETTER ESTABLISHED.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 13.0N 55.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 13.7N 55.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 56.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 57.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 58.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 62.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 63.5W 95 KT


$$


yeah stormtop poped up the other day said he was fine. for some of you check my blog. its got my account of chasing ophelia in the outerbanks as well as some pics from hatteras
new advisory for TD 17...Link..yeah rays if that wave n of PR does develop it could be close to Florida by then..if not typical summer pattern setting up with hot humid weather...
This is incredible. Right now in the East Pac, there is a major hurricane, another hurricane, two lows that are both expected to become storms, and in the Atlantic, there is a tropical storm, a tropical depression on the cusp of becoming a tropical storm, and three lows that could all develop. I have never heard of both basins being so incredibly active at the same time, but then again, I'm only 15. Have both basins ever been so active at the same time before? I thought that one one was active, the other was usually quiet.
It looks like it is consistent with the previous model on track but not intensity.
i asked dr.masters to mention both the blob gfdl run and the gfs hundred cyclones in the next 14 days in his next blog update
yeah for u guys who have not yet check out my blog for the story of my chase of ophelia and my pics from the beach in cape hatteras
Lefty, great links. Good news about ST.
yeah i was happy to hear he is alive, all those others were imposters like i tried to tell u guys
yeah that looks like a TS...Link...get the plane in there this afternoon and it will be named..lol..
708. IKE
The latest NAM model is thru 78 hours and has the blob as a SIGNIFICANT storm crossing the keys/extreme south Florida heading into the gulf.
Banding in 17 is starting to become more pronounced. I agree WG this is probably a TS already.
8888889....please stop sounding so happy over these storms when many of us are in the pathway of them. Also, as previous posters have said, please try to correct your spelling, grammar and punctuation as most of your postings are nearly impossible to understand.
Goodness the GFS looks like amtrak just expanded their coverage! LOL.,... Choo Choo!!!!
thank you billsfaninsofla,
888889- I understand that you are in California you probably have never been in any of these storms. Please keep the thoughts to yourself as I have 3 children to worry about.
Leffty your thoughts on the blob? Possible Cat 4-5?
WOW, that GFS model run makes Africa look like a Semi-Automatic Hurricane Hurler, or SAHH if you want to be all official!

Indeed...things are about to get very interesting.



714. IKE
The latest NAM has run thru 84 hours and it follows a path similar to the GFDL taking the BLOB thru the keys...as a storm. Doesn't look good. Curious to see what the new GFS shows.
Lefty, I see we got 17.lol.
they must have had a microwave pas that made tem name it a depresuion ausei elt they woiul wait for the plane lol. the plane be there around 4 or 5 tonigh and i think we il have philipe
rays the gfdl nam and canadian all call for a mjor cane in 3-4 days. keep both eyes on it and if it doesform the sst are so high we will see explosive development like katrina
sj u goota look at the gfdl for the virgin island blob right now
Give me sone link about the BLOB
I see the gfs has like 12 lows at one time, 2005 will be a year to remember..... Just think how bad it would have been if the dust wasnt coming off bad this year...
I agree the naming will wait for recon, but that is almost just a technicality now as he look to really be pulling it together.
gfdl model run of the blob

Link
WJ, look at this link to see the SAHH in action.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

It looks like things are going to interesting in the atlantic for a while.
this is going to be a crazy week or so. I am hoping for the best for us here in the Gulf states. Wondering what the weather set up will be in the next couple of days to see where this storm will go.
oh yeah.this will be the year will tell our grankids about
well if it gets in the gulf it will hit something and the gfdl shows it going to the panhandle
Good grief 922mb in 126hrs. They ramp that up quick.
all i can say sj is OMG
sj its those sst i mentioned last night. 90-95 degress that suppots explosive development like katrina
730. IKE
The GFDL must to have picked up on something turning it/a weakness when it gets in the gulf. I wonder what might cause it.
And the CNC, we better pray that is a fish storm as it looks to be the size of most of the SE.lol.
People,please understand that we are just watching mother nature at work, and we are awed by her. We are excited because these storms are incredible forces that place our supposed dominance on this planet into context.

We don't make the storms, nor do we decide where they go. They will follow their path regardless of anyone's wishes or fears.
its a cat 5. itmakes it own path lol
Has anyone felt that the blob is a lot like the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935?
oh i freaking know man. i think we will have 2 cat4's or higher in 5 days. thats nuts
Hey all, the blob north of PR certainly looks like it could become a depression in the next 36 hours. And the GFDL definitely paints a nasty picture for south Florida. One thing I would add... if this thing did become a monster hurricane, go through the keys, then turn northwest into the eastern gulf(like the GFDL suggests), the Katrina-cooled water of the eastern gulf could never support a cat 5 hurricane and likely not even a cat 4. Until the lastest GFDL run, however, all models have been predicting this PR blob will move west or wsw across the southern gulf. It is still way early for that kind of speculation, so for now we just need to keep a close watch on it. I really don't think there will be much of an interaction between TD17 and future TD18.
Well said Willjax!
Hey guys and gals I'm back. . .

I wake up this morning and there is a blob over PR and a new depression. This depression is forecasted to be a 95kt hurricane? The track to me is too uncertain. Many of the first tracks this year have proved to be inaccurate. Like the discussion said "THE MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND HOW MUCH THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE REFORMED DURING THE NIGHT
. STEERING CURRENTS
ARE UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY
WELL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FARTHER EAST
GFDL AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE MORE WESTERLY BAM MODELS AND
LBAR
.

This would be a serious situation if this turned out to hit the US coast but its TOO EARLY.
sj wanted to mention my vtech hokies are ranked number 4 in the nation. just thought u like to know lol
Well IKE the pattern gets more progressive this time of year, as fronts begin to press towards the south..So each front that move dwon, will tend to turn the system more north..again it will be timing as to when the storm moves near the Gulf and what the weather pattern will be.
hawkeye its been 3 weeks since katrina. the temps ahev come back up. i posrted a sst link a second ago to show this. here it is again. also remebr katrina passed over mostky the gulf loop. thats the gulf stream in the gulf snf would not take long for those temps to come back up

Link




Looks like my bahamas and south florida friends will be making some water runs this weekend. I pray you're right about the gulf waters being cooler from Katrina but I suspect that is not the case. Perhaps we should all go to the beach and blow east.
SST Hawk...Link..not that cool..they cooled for about a week after Katrina but have rebounded..not much cloud cover over the Gulf this time of year...
this just ion. her chances of forming now became pretty likely


SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.
Thus far I don't see any Northward turn for 17 as advertised by the models. Since models are really bad in the formulative stages of a system I give the storm equal chances of going North to be fish cane or going WNW into the gulf. I agree with lefty, we may have two major canes in a very short order. Those waves to the East looks very omminous as well.
lefty,
do you think the blob will turn the corner after the keys and haed n or nw i live outside tampa and trust me there not ready for that
we know have the low at the surface she will be a depression in 12-24 hrs. those temps are explosive and the hard part is over. forming the low
Some of the models have not initialized td 17 well yet. Once the exact position is found then we will get better model runs. I agree with hawkeyewx to a certain degree. The sst's left by Katrina will probably have an effect on the blob but, if it runs up the west coast of Florida there would probably be minimal effect. That looks like that will be another monster in the Gulf. I hope it's wrong.
weather wondere the north turn is not is what forcasted. a slow wnw or nw movement towards the east coast. ur asuming a fish storm i am saying a east coast possible landfall. she won't get into the gulf unless she crosses the bahammas. she will be slow to move over the next few days so just relax on the northward turn



i don't know where the blob will go after the keys. thats only one of many scenarios but is the most worrisome to me
750. IKE
I agree lefty...the blob/now low is soon to be a depression..in a day or so. Where it's heading could be a problem.
Do you think the GFDL run of the blob that suggests it would become a Category 4 or 5 is realistic?
sst are back to almost pre katrina levels.why do u guys assume they aren't look at the links provided by a couple of us. stop being niave and look at the data. the temps in the gulf and tropical atlantic will support a cat 4 or 5. the temps in the bahamas will support explosive development. this is scary and u need to get out of denial


also somemodelsdon't have a handle on td 17 yet but all those do turn her nw or wnw. u can't assume a movment none of the models show period. nowid one model showed a system moving west than u would have an arguiment
lefty
i was just trying to get your opinon.
you have a good sence of these storms and thanks
for your opinon
yes. sst in that area are 90-95 degress. the sst in the gulf are 85-890 degress. those temps will support explosive development as well as sustain a cat 4 or 5
WeatherWonderer, those infrared images of the SAHH at work show some formidble systems emerging. Just look at the sheer size of those things!

I gotta go find Pat Robertson...
salter,

i try not to form a opinion on the track past what the models show. thats what i was tryingto say. sorry if i came off wrong man. but i belive the gulf coast to the panhandle are the biggest threat but a turn into florida would also be a likely scenarion
is anyone else having problems accessing the navy site? just wondering
lefty,
thats what i like about your forcasting STRAIGHT TO THE POINT
my memory fails me but didn't Andrew just explode at about the same place as the Virgin Blob?
We may have a new depression soon. Lefty, you think 17 could make an east coast lanfdall and not a turn to the north? I hate saying this but: only time will tell. The sst's links were intresting. Looks like the temps rebounded quickly. This could be a serious situation for the US if both these systems develop like the models say they will. I know SC is not ready for a strong-major hurricane.
right now the sst is around 94 off of tampa
Leffty might have to post my warning soon. You think. Lol. NOt going to argue with you though. I promise.
thanks salter. iam just going crazy tryign to find data and i am being a little rude this morning. just wanted to make sure i didn'tcome off wrong man. thanks though
We are also still in question about how long the NW movement continues for 17. Some of the models hint that a ridge will build over Phillipe and turn him back westward after 4 day or so. Any thoughts on this?
Yeah on both of the systems..the key word again is SLOW..lol..they will not be moving fast, so we will be able to watch both of these..Very difficult ot say with a slow moving system where it is going 7 to 10 days out..
td 17 will head noeth of just over the islands and its just a matter of the ridge placement but i think a east coast landfall is a likely scenario. i am moreconverned about the pr blob thou.yes andrew blew uo there or maybe a little north of there
Basically in the short term..TD 17 moves NW...96L moves west...stay tuned..lol..
yeah+ sj i think the bend back will just make her hit se us more than anything.no bend back and she hits near va or nc
Check out the CMC model for sea level pressure for the next 5 days or so, shows a huge storm encompassing the size of the Southeast United States.

Link
You are right lefty,

The sst's do make explosive development a possibility. The worst case scenerio would be two cat 4 or 5's threatening the Gulf coast and the southeast coast one after another. I don't know how possible that is though. So many factors. . .
wg lol. hey wg can u acces the navy site
yeah thats td 17. i saw that last night. blew my mind
That thing is huge CFL. We been talking about that since last night.
I think we all need to settle down and wait for 79s forcast track.lol.
nope cant get the navy site..tried a few times..must be down..at a time like this..lol..well gotta take my son skateboarding, see ya all later..
the nhc says it sets the intesity for td 17 to 95 kts in 5 days but its way under the gfdl and ships. they have a problem naming a cat 4 storm in 5 days lol. both the shipd and gfdl blow this thing up. she will be phillipe in 12 hrs or less. looking really impressive
thanks wg. have fun with the son
No navy site for me either Lefty, it does not even leave my home page when I click the link. Odd.
ok i will try to stop be so happy but when we start talking about new TD then go to hurrican then that what make me so happy about and i will try to correct my spelling but i am not so good of it so i will try do what i can do for my spelling far give me for being happy on the storm but i can not help it when they make landfall it make me happy so far give me for being up and down so now we have TD 17 will we soon see TD18?
serveris down. may maitence or soemthing. it sucks i need some microwave data like right now lol
Just thought I would post it, I wasn't aware it had been brought up.

The middle of the storm ends up showing as less than 980 millibars, but how much lower?
u will see td 18 in 12 -24 hrs
Link FNMOC is working fine for me.
888888
Happy and excited/intrested are two different things. Maybe you should look for a better way to describe your emotions.
Wait a minute?!?! Is that 17 on the cmc model???

If the ridge does build in as 17 moves nw then it may send it west into GA/SC/NC area. I know the sst's left by Ophelia would have an effect.

The blob is becoming a depression soon. If the GFDL is right then FL would be dealing with another catstrophe like it did with Charley. God forbid two major hurricanes striking the Gulf and the southeast one after another. The key is that these are early speculations. The models shift and anything could happen. I hate the early stages of these storms because a SC landfall or a landfall anywhere is the first thing that comes to mind.
thanks cfl. i think thats a mirror site or something. its a lildifferent than the site i usually use but will do just fine. thanks alot
YES, that huge blob is TD17, it is so large though it might be an anomaly. Katrina wasn't even that large with a low pressure field that far from the center.
Of course the eastern gulf water has recovered some since Katrina and is plenty warm to sustain a good hurricane, but the total heat potential northeast of Katrina's track is not what it was before the storm. The water of the loop current is still plenty capable of supporting a cat 4+, though, and the water from the Bahamas to the Florida straits is pure gas.

It should be noted that at this point only the GFDL, NAM, and Canadian models are forecasting a tropical cyclone to spin up and threaten the keys/south Florida while the other models are just taking an open wave west and wsw across the straits or Cuba and into the western Caribbean and/or the Bay of Campeche. As usual, most models suck until something actually forms and gets a well-defined circulation.
ok right now i am excited fer give me i can not help it
It is an alternate site I guess, it's the only one Ive ever had.
weather while the temops might be down they will have a chance to rebound as this storm is 10+ days away plus right befor landfall is the gulf streem. now i don't see a cat 5 but a cat 3 is not out of the question
Way to early to speculate 007. We need to see a lot more model runs before we even get an idea of general heading out of the NW movement.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005091700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

OMG

Look at the SIZE of this thing on the CMC model after 144 hours!
yeah its the frame site. thats what the f stands for. i like th non frame site better but iwill use what i can get to work. thanks again
Lefty, StormJ,

How strong do you think the ridge will be IF it builds back in. Were would that bring 17?
lol 1 by 1 they all see the cnadian model and run in here. sj remebr my reaction last night. this is so funny
from florida to delware maybe more north. the whole east coast and if it blows up as big as the canadian suggests, that would be a storm that affects a wide area.
Speed will also play a big factor in any kind of land fall. If the storms should move faster through the slightly cooler waters the more chance of a strong storm making it to landfall.
ok guys. wanna play with the son some. be bcak later. if u have not done so yet check my blog and pics from my ophelia chase. good stuff. check yall later
I haven't seen the SHIPPS intensity model yet . .. what does it say?
lol Lefty. Way too early to tell 007. With that initial movement I would think it would be Central FL N for Phillipe if he makes landfall at all. Remeber 7 to 10 days away at best
72 hrs 101mph.
Am I overreacting? Or is this a realistic possibility? Hopefully not... that would be a terrible storm, but judging from the size of the waves now (in consideration to those coming off of the African coast and from which 95l formed into a depression), I can sort of see a correlation.
Gotta go. . . will be back soon.
wow any one no that we have not 1 not 2 but 3 storm out in the East pacific we got a hurricane Jova with winds of 105 mph we got hurricane kenneth with winds of 120 mph and we got a TD12 with winds of 30mph wow all at one time what up with that?
I am anticipating Dr. Jeff's newest blog entry. He's probably typing it right now and I'm sure he has a lot to say.

007 I was thinking the same thing about that ridge building over the southeast. It could possibly slow the northern movement that is 17's only chance for a fish storm, and deflection to the west is not out of the question.
807. crow
Relax and check yer shorts . IF and WHEN the BIG gets here, we will adjust to it. This is not WW3
is one she or a boy storm this time around?
Hello people....first of all Dr.Masters has a new blog...and second of all, phillipe has joined us......it looks to already have at least 50 or 60 mph winds.....and definitely will be a storm at 5pm...
when the P storm come will this be girl storm or a boy storm?
A model run like the latest GFDL certainly makes my eyes pop out with awe, but the GFDL sometimes gets too aggressive too early with systems. It was ultimately pretty right about Katrina in the gulf, but was way too aggressive in forecasting her to bomb out to 930 mb in the northern keys. I also remember the GFDL when TD10 formed(early Katrina when it was where TD17 is now) and the first model runs kept flipping back and forth between dissipating it and bombing it to a cat 3 within four days. We now know the cat 3 scenario northeast of the Leeward islands was bogus and it actually dissipated before eventually reorganizing into Katrina over the Bahamas.

12z GFS is a tad more aggressive with the PR blob, developing it into a storm as it moves through the Florida Straits and then moves it wsw to a spot just off the north Yucatan coast. I think the GFS may be underdeveloping this system as much as the GFDL may be overdoing it. My first gut feeling is with only a few days until this blob reaches Florida it would likely get to cat 1 at best with further strengthening in the southern gulf.
It will be Phillipe. GFDL for 96l invest looks hard to believe, but remember it is only September 17, and most major hurricanes spawn this time of year. There is no reason why we can't have more cat 4-5 hurricanes by the end of the year. We will soon run out of regular names for storms, so it will be interesting to see how many of the over 20 storms that will end up forming will be major hurricanes. We are 3/7 for major hurricanes compared to total hurricanes.
Eep again :(
I don't believe in those model. I'm allmost sure the system will enter the caribean and passs over Haiti as a cat 2 Huricane; make a other lanfall on Cuba go to the west strenth as a cat 3 Hurricane an hit mexico or south of Texas.