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TD 16 not too impressive...yet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:01 PM GMT on September 06, 2005

The center of Tropical Depression 16 was just fixed by the NOAA hurricane hunters a few miles north of Grand Bahama Island, which is 110 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Peak winds found by the hurricene hunters on the west side were just 20 knots, and the central pressure was a very high 1010 mb. TD 16 is still very disorganized, and is not a threat to intensify rapidly for the next 1 - 2 days.

The peak winds and most intense convection is found well north of the center, in the ocean areas between Cape Canaveral and Jacksonville. QuikSCAT satellite winds of up to 30 - 35 mph exist in this region. The St. Augustine CMAN station reported sustained winds of 37 mph at 1pm EDT, which is only 2 mph below tropical storm force. Daytona Beach has reported heavy rain and winds gusts up to 25 mph in squalls the past few hours.

Melbourne radar shows a large area of echoes circling a very ill-defined center 200 or so miles east of Lake Okeechobee. Doppler radar estimates of the wind velocity from the Miami radar are no longer available, as the Miami radar has failed, and may be down the rest of the day.

As far as intensity goes, TD 16 is in a low shear environment of 5 - 10 knots, and the shear over it is expected to decrease the next two days. I believe that by tomorrow night we will see TD 16 turn into Tropical Storm Ophelia. However, the upper-level ouflow to the northeast of the storm is going to be hampered by the upper level outflow from Tropical Storm Nate. As long as Nate continues to show little movement, TD 16 will suffer and will not be able to intensify very rapidly. By the end of the week, when Nate is expected to move away to the northeast and leave TD 16 behind, more significant strengthening can occur, assuming TD 16 has not made landfall in Florida.

TD 16 should move very slowly the next three days, since it is trapped under a strong high pressure ridge where steering currents are very weak. A slow northward or northwestward motion is indicated by most of the models, which would bring heavy rains to the east coast of Florida all week. The GFDL model, in contrast, moves TD 16 rapidly across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. None of the other forecast models show this, and the GFDL solution is being discounted at this time.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Keep going Jeff. You are just going to get kicked off again.

"The significant problems we face can not be solved by the same level of thinking that created them"-Albert Einstein
wow forst img out of blackout has a coma shaped system. while the rzadar presentation might be bad she is looking betetr on sat imgs. def looks like ats
Floater updated yet lefty?
1006. Canenut
A photo of Jeff???

Link

Had to do it!
What's that in Jeff's a$$?
no not yet storm. this is the img i am looking at. u can click on the storm to zoom in


Link
THATS A GOOD ONE I HAVE IT COPIED AND PASTED NOW THATNKS
The BAMM is now showing a Florida crossing. That link did not work Lefty.
floater updated
hers that link again storm


Link
All...please keep it civil.
In the line of fire here so to speak.
i think the cenetr will redevelop with in that deep convection if it has not already done it. need to get some long range radar lol
Shera please keep him on that side if he is going to act like a two year old. He will get banned again if he keeps posting garbage in this blog. This is not Alec's safehaven. No offense here Shera, but we have a storm that appears will make landfall.
Looks to be an almost due N movement during the blackout Lefty? Pretty good jump too. What does the comma mean?
N of the cape already?
I am here trying to discuss the weather, and I have to deal with this chump. My blog has 3 scenarios for newley formed Ophelia if anyone wants to come over there and discuss. Just click on my name!
that the storm is trying to become more symetrical which would mean a betetr orginised system
I saw your three scenarios Chub and I know that you think talking track now is usless and it may be, but we usually hash this stuff out here so it is easier for others to find info.
Damn that long range radar.
Strom who Jeff? Thurmond? He's dead.
1027. Canenut
StormJunkie, I was gonna say the same thing about good old Strom.

LONG RANGE RADAR
Link
Floater is out of blackout zx Floater 2

She looks to be getting pretty organized.
You there Lefty? So how does a stonger storm CAT 2 or so effect track?
The models are all mucked up on this one I think.
ok io don't think her motion has puicked up more than she has tightend up. strength will play little with this system cause she will be pretty weak if u will thru the most important parts of the track. she will probly only get to cat 1 strength after she has made her turn to the ne or her turn west. the track has more todo with the location and strength of the ridges and the trof. those 3 factors are key and are the 3 factors we have differing model opinions on
1033. Canenut
URNT12 KNHC 070730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/0704Z
B. 28 DEG 07 MIN N
78 DEG 54 MIN W
H. EXTRAP 1003 MB
P. NOAA3 0216A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 0523Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION



the cenetr locateion is now 28.07n 78.56 west based on the new recon just in. her surface and upperlevel cenetrs are slightly off from each other. the upperleve cenetr is more north. the surface circulation will circulate or reform under that deep convection in the next 6-12 hrs like we saw with nate. the shear was part of the reason this happened and new ir img shows a less sheared enviroment and a less sheared system.
NE or W. thats not to far apart.lmao.
I think we will get some pretty good bands when she starts to spread out tomorrow during the day. Is the afternoon spread out kinda like the opposite of the diurnal max? I have noticed every day convections seems to spread out during the day. Not as cold, but more widespread.
i am not sure about that one stormj
On a side note I respected Hannity at one point, but he is making an idiot of himself trying to defend our response to Katrina.
She has spread out during the day Lefty. Bands or interaction at the pressure gradient seems to fire up during the day. I have seen this the past two days.
ships model now brings her to cat 1 strength in 48 hrs.
Looking at sats and models did not even see the 81mph in 72 hrs.
i wasn't disagreeing with u stormj lol. not sure what the mechanism is thats what i was saying. there are things i do not know lol


the west track is based on the shortwave not being strong enough to totally weaken or split the ridge to the north or pull the system east any. u must also remebr they stated their track is just the middle of most of the guidlance since thje model;s are spread out. they also stated it was a low confidence forcast meaning what we all have been saying. the steering will be determined by 3 things that the models differ on. shirtwave strength, ridge to her norths strength thru the forcast period, anf the strength and timming of the ridge building behind nate
canenut
on your link it looks like the convection is north of the low
Seems we have gotten rid of Jeffman
this is a little lesson guys. here is the latest recon


URNT12 KNHC 070730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/0704Z
B. 28 DEG 07 MIN N
78 DEG 54 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 152 DEG 39 KT
G. 075 DEG 8 NM
H. EXTRAP 1003 MB
I. 24 C/ 480 M
J. 26 C/ 494 M
K. 23 C/ 30 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0216A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 0523Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION


leter n shows the cenetr recorde thur the means 134/1 the last 1 states that the cenetr is intact thru 1500ft. from 1500 ft to the surface the cenetr is detached from the rest of the storm. that means that most of the cirulaion in the upper levels above 1500ft is at with the convection. this is a sign of a storm reorginising. that cenetr 1500ft to the surface will rotate under the other cenetrs or reform. this is why the radar presentation is so poor right now. i will give you a link that describes how to read the message
It is like Buffet said Chaser "Trying to reason with hurricane season."
Are you trying to be poetic like Shakespere Chaser?
here is a link that explains how to read the recon data

Link


whitewabbit if u read the recon data it will tell you that the low level circulation is detached from the upper circulation at 1500ft. in 6-12 hrs that llc below 1500ft will rotate underneath or reform underneath the upperlevel circulations. this is the feature of a assymetricla storm becomming symetrical and betetr orginised. the cirulation from 1500ft to flight level is embbeded with in the deep convection
Damn it Lefty I need to know where this b!t(h is going.
lol sorry stormj. thats classified lol
I need Stormtop.lol. You waiting for the 5am?
when the cirulations are attached again u will see a recon that says something like this

o. 1234/7

the 7 means that the circulation was thru 700mb or flight level
always do stormj. waiting for that 500am than might cuddle with the wife befor i fall asleep lol
Up for a couple of games?
just breaking off some knowledge on u guys lol
naw man. i am way to tired lol. maybe tomm though.
No that's good stuff lefty and one day I will be able to read the vortex messages. Critical pieces of info.
It's all good. I am headed to bed after the 5am also.
The Carolinas huh 77? I agree N fl has had a halo. So did NO though.
yeah that vortex will tell you all u need to know about the storm. helps u see the big picture with whats going on inside the beast
lefty
sorry I didn't reply earlier was fixing a pb&j..
so we were both right - I was looking at the surface low and you were seeing the mid level low. is that your take??
the gfdl not only intializes the storm to south, but way to weak. also the storm is well north of where the gfdl has it. also the gfdl has her moving due west at this point or sw if u will and none of that is happening. i belive the gfdl will counted lessin the next track update but they might wait for the next gfdl run
well sortoff. the cenetr was about 35-40 miles north of the nhc 11pm advisory so it was not right but the 2 are detached something i did not see at the time. only recon can tell you that. but its all good
The 7:15 image looks like there could be a wnw movement, but htis could just be convection rotating around. What ya'll think?
lefty
And I didn't see the mid level low. If it happens again we could talk it over again. and I really wasn't trying to start anything!
OK maybe NW.
1071. Canenut
So the 0z NOGAPS, UKMET and GFS all now show a loop happening and the 0z GFDL and 6z BAMM take it into the gulf. Do we think the NHC at 5a will adjust the track or still split the difference?
that motion i belive is just convection rotating around. the radra shows a nnw or due north movement. and remember what i said about movement u need atleast 3 hrs and all we have is less than 1 since the blackout. so we will watch it but i doubt she is making any movement other than nnw or due n
Yeah, I am on board with the convection wrapping around. Just wanted some second opinions.
i am not sure. they might just shift their track a little to the right but i don't se them making any major changes till we have another set of model runs. so look at the 11am or 5pm adv to be the ones we see a real change either way. must be noted that while it maybe be late if she heads west that is why they issued warnings and watches today. people focus to much on the forcast track and not on the watches and warnings issued by the nhc. that way they can cover there bases if she does not follow the nhc forcast track
night 77
These close to shore systems are sketchy to say the least. Can jump up in windspeed quick and be onshore before anyone thought. Has to be scary for the NHC who knows that are not always right.
well frustating yes but thats why they issue those warnings and watches and people should plan for these things when they are in a watch and a warning. to many people including the media always focus on the forcast track, and like with charley it can get u in trouble
g'night chaser!

5am can't get here soon enough...lol
yeah i feel the same way. eyes are really heavy. i normally ahve no problem waiting for this 5am but i am tired tonight. ate to much dinner earlier i guess lol
I have wondered for a while now and been meaning to ask what re the mjor contributing factors to size. Katrina vs Charley?
but that cloud pattern is really looking impressive. once she gets that surface circulation attached she will probly take off quick.
I am with you on that Lefty. I still say the models have been underestimating the warmer waters.
and I'm with you both lefty and storm J
I must be getting tired also. My typing is getting awful.
What's up Wild?
The J can be dropped until we here from the T. Hopefully that won't be too long.
WOW kuwait gave us 400 million in oil and 100 million in cash. Way to pay back the favor. Thanks Kuwait.
I'm with you guys on the comment if the cloud pattern attaches to the circulation the system will take off. And I'm learning alot from this blog & Lefty i just hope it doesn't work against me.
yeah but the surface and upper level cirulations are not attached yet so that will probly take 6-12 hrs, maybe less but until that happens we will only see slight stregthening. after that time all bets are off as long as the shear remains low and she remains over warm waters
yeah stormj. the really appreciated that whole liberation from iraq thing back in 91 lol
forget paying us back they owe us that "small" gift is the least they can do.
Japan only gave 1 million. Come on?
The GFS UKMET NOGAPS all show the loop de loop happening on the 00 runs. The GFDL is showing a northerly movement a stall and then a westerly movement, and the CMC is showing a northerly track and then a easterly movement out to sea.
I am starting to believe that the loop de loop scenerio is looking more and more probable.
1095. Canenut
URNT12 KNHC 070830
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/0749Z
B. 28 DEG 15 MIN N
79 DEG 02 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1460 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 233 DEG 20 KT
G. 166 DEG 27 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 20 C/ 1494 M
J. 21 C/ 1497 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0216A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 0523Z
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION

500 million is not small. Matter of fact they top the list of contributers.lol.
Wonder if the NHC will show a loop track or still keep a north and then west motion.
wait did Iraq give us 100 million in our money or theirs and did Japan give us the money in their currency or ours?
NHC does'nt do loops do they?
Don;t have those details wild. I think we should just take the 100 million from Iraq.
They did last year with Jeanne....unless that was meant sarcastically...sorry it's late and I am tired...
the cirulation is still detached but at a diff level. shows she is orginising.

also japan just got smaled with a typhoon today leave them alone lol
You're right Chub. I remember that . Where are you Chub?
no thjey will but i doubt we will see amajor shifty in forcast track based on one set of model runs. they will wait for atleast one more run beofr making any major changes
Alright I geuss I'll give them a pass Lefty.
japan ok their money is a gift but all the money, time, effort, jobs, and man power we put into Iraq the money they gave the u.s. is probally if not all then most of the money the u.s. put into Iraq they are just recycling currency.
though i must say the ukmet, nogaps, and gfs recent runs all show a loop so i am feeling more like that will probly happen. lol remebr if it happens i called it hours ago
wild its govt money laudering lol
I am in Tampa.
The thing is 4 of the models call for a loop of sorts. Two of them being "good" models (GFS and GFDL) The GFS has been forecasting it slightly since the 12z run on the 6th and the UKMET since the 5th.
Seems like you have to start assuming this is a solid possibility.
LOL thats why i like you lefty
well the gfdl does not show aloop, but i am like the nhc. i want one more set of model runs befor i say with certainty it will loop or where it will go once it loops. but i said earlier this one will be interesting no doubt
yeah wild i am opk most of the time lol
1113. Canenut
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 78.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 78.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 79.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.4N 80.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.8N 80.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.1N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
1114. timl2k5
StormJunkie, re Katrina vs. Charlie, just the available fuel? Katrina was kind of small too until she blew up over the deep waters of the central gulf(which she spent a lot of time over as a slower moving storm). Charley was a faster mover I think? and only had shallow warm waters for fuel...
1115. Canenut
So yeah, they shifted the track to the right.
thanks canenut. i am more inerested in the disscussion myself. they break things down for you and just disscuss whats happening. so all the rest of the info i could care less about most of the time lol
The gfs takes it pretty far south at 144 hrs. Acouple of model also are showing a couple of systems off of Africa later in the forcast.
yeah i saw thta. that will change the intensity forcast and mark the shift tthey will make in 12 hrs or so to show the loop. that will be a funny forcast track
They show the begining of the loop at 5 days.
So how are the models in relation to current point.
they are all orety much in cincensus thru this trime period anyway and they are prety on track. only the gfdl is off track so far
1122. Canenut
Hey! It's not a 5 day cone! It's a circle... lol
do you guys ever sleep?
Winds are ~ 25 to 30 mph in Flagler Beach.
Just waiting for the discussion and then I am off to bed.
Yeah these wunderground circles are a joke.
lol yeah canenut. yeah we are waiting for the disscussion than off to bed. takes them forever to get that disscussion up
Yeah Shera once we wear ourselves out with info and speculation.
i am actually shocked they show the loop in the 5 day cone. i think she will be more north when she makes that loop but we will see
also they are forcasting a cat1 cane by day 3-4. she is getting interesting
The gfs takes her all the way back close to Grand Bahama.
Speed up to 8mph?
Damn, I keep freezing up my sat and radar trying to refresh at the same time.
yeah but she will slow down. her motion was more due to reorginisation if u ask me
I hate that they would handle it that way to try and make themselves look good. They should just give the current forward speed even if it does not match up with last position.
So big loop or small loop-ie cutback?
but thats how it works, forward motion is a 3 hr position fix. so its at that speed till the next 3 hr fix. thats how u track a cyclone. just how it is done by all agencies
i think the loop will be a little bigger than they show. she will be moving into a weakness left by nate that will close quickly and kick her south than sw than w
1138. Canenut
Well, now that I've read the discussion, time to sleep and ponder it, goodnight all!
wow that was the worse disscussion lol. they have no clue what she will do. any of us are as good as they are right now but they mention their speed and motion is based on the last 3 recon fixes whixh is what i was saying. we night all catch yall tomm. lest see what new suprise is awaiting us when we get up
good night everyone, looks like we have somthing to watch for the next week or so....
Sleep well all and stay safe!
I was about to say I am not going to read the discussion because they are just going to say what I already learned here tonight which is-who the hell knows.
Good night!
lol night storm j
Kim Perez is kinda hot in a strange sorta way.
1145. timl2k5
In the last few radar frames from Melbourne (long range) look like it's trying to get more organized. I see some bands SE quad now.
1146. aquak9
morning ya'll.
Geez. I sleep for 6 hours, and wake up under a tropical storm watch.
Good call on the loop, lefty.
our local weather mentioning the loop, potentially the whole state is "in the cone" according to them...like lefty said, they have no clue where she is going yet...
Ophelia will definately make a loop....which will resemble the first letter of her name!!!! She's just a part of this wacky hurricane season, so why shouldn't she make her mark?
1149. SherryB
I think I need to start building my ark..this rain just won't quit!!
Jeff has posted a new report...