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TD 16 near tropical storm strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:39 PM GMT on October 28, 2007

Tropical Depression 16 continues to get more organized today as it chugs slowly west-northwest at 6 mph. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows heavy rains affecting Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, and these rains are expected to spread over Haiti today. Satellite loops show very vigorous thunderstorms reaching high into the atmosphere have developed on the storm's northeast side. A recent microwave satellite image (Figure 1) shows rain rates of up to 1 inch per hour in these thunderstorms. Wind shear has fallen to 15-20 knots this morning, and is expected to fall below 15 knots later today. This should allow TD 16 to continue to develop, and it is probably already Tropical Storm Noel. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and will let us know more later this afternoon. The first flight of the NOAA jet is Monday night.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of TD 16 taken at 6:12 am EDT Sunday , 10/28/07. Rainfall rates over 1" per hour (orange colors) were observed to the northeast of the center of TD 16's circulation. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

This is a slow moving system that will dump very dangerous amounts of rain along its path. Of particular concern is the 8 to 12 inches of rain, with possible accumulations of up to 20 inches, forecast to fall over Haiti. Rains of this magnitude have killed thousands of people on Haiti in the recent past. Most recently, Hurricane Jeanne passed just north of Haiti as a tropical depression in 2004, and dumped about 13 inches of rain over the northern mountains. The resulting floods killed over 3,000 people. Heavy rains of up to 18 inches associated with a tropical disturbance in May 2004 also killed thousands.

The latest 00Z and 06Z models runs are similar to previous runs, and do not give us a lot of confidence that we know where TD 16 will go or how strong it will get. The key feature controlling TD 16's path is a trough of low pressure forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast four days from now. If this trough is strong enough, and TD 16 is large enough and far enough north, the trough will force TD 16 across Cuba, into the Bahamas, then northeastward out to sea. Exactly where this recurvature will occur is problematic, with the GFDL and HWRF predicting this will occur over the western Bahamas, and the GFS predicting a path close to Miami in the Eastern Bahamas. In either scenario, it is unlikely that TD 16 would affect South Florida as anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane, since the storm must get through Cuba first, and deal with higher wind shear to the north of Cuba. If the storm makes a direct hit on South Florida this week, it would likely be as a tropical storm.

Another possibility, preferred by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models, is that TD 16 will stay south of Cuba and make it all the way to the extreme Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan. The trough of low pressure forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast four days from now might not be strong enough to turn TD 16 northeastward in this case, and the storm could stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days. This scenario might allow TD 16 to intensify into a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane, since wind shear is predicted to be light over the area, and the ocean heat content is high. This is the scenario I have been favoring, but this is a low-confidence forecast.

I'll have an update Monday morning, and perhaps late tonight.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
Ivan , Katrina , Rita

Link
1002. aquak9
Cosmic, cosmic, cosmic....you WERE just diggin' thru a FRIEND'S medicine cabinet, RIGHT???

oh gotta love this place...

And good evening Spin, everyone else...so what bands do we have playin' for us tonite?
1003. Hhunter
bastardi-----sUNDAY 4 PM...US NAVAL BASE AT GUANTANAMO MAY BE UNDER ATTACK BY NOEL.

The finding of a 50 kt storm at 996 means this did not develop "suddenly" for if we use that rationale, then why should this simply level off if its rapidly developing in this improving situation. No folks, this has been a storm since last night, a depression definition for at least 48 hours, and ignored by recon till now.

The track is crucial, my call is that it will stay south of most of Hispaniola and this could be as strong as 970 mb by tomorrow night as it passes south of the US base at Guantanimo and so they may be under siege first.
Guys this unexpected sudden stall means alot....timings is everything in this specific case and Noel stopping could mean a whole different ball game come tomorrow.
I think this is my next vacation...lol

Link
1006. CaneKid
Thanks Stormybil!
I think the center could be possibly exposed from the deep convection.

1007. TampaSpin 8:35 PM EDT on October 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
I think the center could be possibly exposed from the deep convection.


not enough shear for that Tampa
Per NHC, looks like Florida's tropical storm repelent for 2007 is still working, and we'll likely escape the last storm in the area for the season. Can't help but laugh at Bastardi for saying Florida would see 4x normal chances for a hit in 2007. He should have never gone out on a limb like that.
1010. Patrap
984. charlottewx 7:24 PM CDT on October 28, 2007
Patrap...I used to get in trouble looking at the weather in school all the time...I hope your drill instructor did not catch you looking at the sky too often!


Unfortunately I had a Drill Instructor that was from Nawlins. He dogged me cause I was 20, a lil older for a recruit in 1980. But some Praline candy sent to me was seen in the mail by him.And I traded a Half day of humping the hills at Pendelton, by escorting the water tanker. Gotta barter when the time is right.. LOL
Check this out...24 hour MIMIC...interesting motion

Link
I do not like the way bastardi says it is possible Noel becomes a cat. 2 or 3. Also he says he thinks it will ride up the middle of Florida like ernesto....
OMG.. I love pralines...REAL pralines...in the little wax paper bags *sighs*
1015. aquak9
hey pat, what can I get for another gingerbread house?

sorry folks, yeah I know, I need to stay on-topic here...uhm it's drizzlin in jax, how's that...
1016. Patrap
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1
Tropical Storm Noel

Vmax 51 knts


Link
1012. BajaALemt 12:38 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
Check this out...24 hour MIMIC...interesting motion

Link



I think this just confirms what i just said the LLC is exposed.
Can someone post me the link of this infamous Bastardi article please?
Hhunter...I subscribe also to Accuweather...Batardi and i agree on one thing..NHC sometimes are too slow and methodical in declaring storms and sometimes recognize storms that are not...Bastardi is alwyas pounding NHC on that...

Also, Bastardi has said that all the models have been to much to the north on recurves this year and then adjust back west..
1011. JFV 12:38 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
hey cane how concerning is this sudden standing still movement in regards to noel? Also, what type of potential implictaions could this have in its future track. Plz specify a bit for me here. Thanks in advance
Action: | Ignore User


Well this could make a big difference in track.....Timing as i said is everything right now...If Noel stays stationary for to long then its approach to the trough expected to kick it NE will possbily not materilize and it will head more westward, as far west as the gulf....
Baja you beat me to that, good job.
1022. JLPR
Noel looks like a west Pacific system even more its just so big
1023. Patrap
Teresa's Choclate Xmas Pretzels, Oreos, Crackers and other treats dipped in Choc-o-lates and tendered too.
LOL pat!! Same post!! *laffs*
In case anybody missed my detailed analylis on Noel along with a recent update on it, here's the link.

Noel Updates
lol Tampa...I got your back? *laffs*
1019. charlottewx 12:40 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
Hhunter...I subscribe also to Accuweather...Batardi and i agree on one thing..NHC sometimes are too slow and methodical in declaring storms and sometimes recognize storms that are not...Bastardi is alwyas pounding NHC on that...

Also, Bastardi has said that all the models have been to much to the north on recurves this year and then adjust back west..
Action: | Ignore User


Yes and this concerns me quite a bit....I live in Central Florida and im not going to take any chances...personally i have a feeling that track is going to end up being right over Florida in the coming days.
Exposed LLC

In the MIMIC...looks like it 'put it in reverse' then looks to be moving slightly more northerly
1030. Patrap
Praline invest 07 Link
1017. TampaSpin 12:40 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
1012. BajaALemt 12:38 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
Check this out...24 hour MIMIC...interesting motion

Link

I think this just confirms what i just said the LLC is exposed.


According to this center isnt exposed:

Sorry about the disagreement Tampa, I just thought you meant exposed as removed from the clouds/naked swirl...
Patrap..I have to tell you a quick story on the Marines. My brother entered the marine Reserve at Beaufort in 1969. He had a college degree..the only one who did out of his group of recruits, The Drill Sargeant called my brother out at 2AM in the morning for three days to type letters because he had a degree.
He kept calling "the college boy"
1013. CaneAddict 12:38 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
I do not like the way bastardi says it is possible Noel becomes a cat. 2 or 3. Also he says he thinks it will ride up the middle of Florida like ernesto...


He said if Noel were to skim north or south of cuba, it probably become a cat 2 or 3. If it were to take the path like, you said, Ernesto, it would have to go through the middle of Cuba and would probably not intensify more than a 50-60 mph tropical storm.
Dammit pat!! You TEASE!!!
Im very curious as to what direction Noel will be heading at the next advisory...i think West...
Looks better organized than earlier. Wouldnt be surprised if Noel was stronger than 60mph

new

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

1039. aquak9
Don't know if I'll be building houses again this year, Pat...depends on the weather, really it does. Can't do it if it's too humid.
AND...been awful busy workin' on a new home, too.
1040. Hhunter
cane addict bastardi did not say that . quote him accurately our proove the validity of your source
I think this will skim the northern coast of Cuba and then slide along the eastern coast of Florida. After, it'll swiftly head NE out to sea.

Similiar to Ernesto but a bit more east.
the only reason the weakening flag is on is because the raw t# was 2.9, all it takes is one outlier T# to produce a ON message for the weakening flag
I have been subscribing to Bastardi on the Accuweather pro site for years now. He is wrong on occassion, not a prophet, but marches to his own beat and is lots of fun to follow during the season. He called Wilma perfectly for a full week before it hit Florida, contrary to everyone else, and I have gotten a lot out of his forecasts.
1044. Patrap
I had scars on my face still from not wearing a seatbelt in a Hit and run. Ford 9000 Tractor Vs. 77Ranchero. We lost that battle. But anyway
I was called Mack truck Private when the DI's had ugly contest with there recruits, They also Noted. This Guy had Windshield impact. Bent a 77 Ranchero Doorpost when he seperated his shoulder in the wreck. But he still Joined the Corps in July 80.
I usually won that round for our Platoon...
I joined the Corps During the Iranian Hostage Crisis , when the war on terror was young.
Semper Fi...
How often is Joe Bastardi right in his forcasting? Anyone?
1040. Hhunter 12:49 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
cane addict bastardi did not say that . quote him accurately our proove the validity of your source
Action: | Ignore User


I apologize i was meaning that he showed what he thinks Noel will do. I compared it to what ernesto did.
we are here today to say good bye to MR No it put up a good fight but the strong wind shear RIP it a part
1048. Patrap
Noel stuck in Neutral..but needs to move to maintain.
Based upon satellite imagery and other info, I believe Noel has a fairly good chance of becoming a hurricane before moving over the tip of Haiti.
I remember all the computer models being in agreement with Wilma turning towards the S.W. coast of Florida.
when is the next recon flight scheduled
Taz are you just saying that so Noel will strengthen again? lol
1045. Clearwater1 12:51 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
How often is Joe Bastardi right in his forcasting? Anyone?


The facts are he puts himself out there and makes alot of money doing it.......lol
Motion looks to be heading over western tip of Haiti/Eastern Cuba
Recon will be out in Noel probably by 1 am EDT
Come on Noel- move west soon! I need something
to excite me in FL before the season ends...
Come on Baby!!!
1057. Hhunter
bastardi is better than most, his biggest flaw is either jumping on something to much and hanging on to it into the ground or having the right idea and changing. Only to see the original forecast validate.
236 LOL
FLScienceTeacher 12:53 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
when is the next recon flight scheduled


They are scheduled to arrive in Noel at 2AM.
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 29/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 29/0300Z
D. 16.1N 76.0W
E. SFC TO 10,000FT FROM 0500Z TO 0900Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
WARRANTS.

1054. BajaALemt 8:54 PM EDT on October 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
Motion looks to be heading over western tip of Haiti/Eastern Cuba


I don't seem to see any motion
care full what you wish for



send MR NO too GA
1063. Hhunter
i agree with you extreme on intensity. This should make hurricane
Do you guys think this will go far west
and threaten FL more???
1064. tropicsdude 8:56 PM EDT on October 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
Do you guys think this will go far west
and threaten FL more???


it looks to be a little riskier now than before INHO
FLWeatherFreak91 12:55 AM GMT on October 29, 2007

Just an observation of the MIMIC
i used to have a site bookmarked that had the HH data as it came in but I lost the bookmark any1 have that or a similar site
Well its likely Noel has intensified some....BBL
1062. Tazmanian 12:56 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
care full what you wish for

send MR NO too GA


Ahmen, Taz
has we say good by too MR No you all go out and in joy your week


you dont think i am makeing MR No mad by saying that do you???
1072. aquak9
yeah, taz...western georgia, eastern alabama. They need it. We could use the rain, too.
Which, of course, being that's it's the atmosphere and all...means MIMIC could look a little different in a few hours *shrugs*
Flweatherfreak "riskier" means less chance of going west or more chance (risky meaning confidence of possibility if i interpreted that correctly)?
more convection now forming to the south and its not dmax yet we may see a 65 mph ts at 11 pm
Just checking back in and it looks to me that Noel has stalled.

1074. tropicsdude 8:59 PM EDT on October 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
Flweatherfreak "riskier" means less chance of going west or more chance (risky meaning confidence of possibility if i interpreted that correctly)?


Riskier means that I believe Fl has a better chance of seeing this Storm than previously thought this morning
BajaA.....great graphic. Movement looks west to east and back to west now.
.
.
And yes Aquak...it was a friend's medicine cabinet that I was rooting around in...lol
thank you! :)

yes they could . aquak9



i wish this would be a strong cat 3 then when it hits the 90kt of wind shear in the gulf and makes land fall in GA has a TS and moveing olny 7mph and this bump and bump and bump rain all overe GA the stronger the storm the more water it will bump and bump and bump
Bastardi answers his critics in this way " Ia m only a columnist, if you don't like what I write don't read my column." I have learned from him in his map discussions..he is believable and uses the technique of "what's happening with the weather now and not so much as using the models as the only tool." Also, his biggest tool is telecomunnications of weather patterns.
He said a month ago or more that the upward motion pulse will produce a caribben storn in November when it arrives. He was right. He also swerars that Florida is the target for a November storm especially in moderate to strong La Nina cycles.
you think its 600 miles wide
1083. Hhunter

Link

i think we already may have a hurricane cloud tops look very cold.
I'm no met, but don't these storms usually stall right before they change direction??
Models seem to be in more agreement of the turn (keeping it away from the US) now than they did on the 1200Z runs. Does anyone think that those models forecasted Noel to stall like he did?
charlottewx,
Right on Bastardi's Nov prediction. He also points out that if a Cat 2 or 3 does develop but miss miami by 100 miles, folks who think that his prediction was wrong don't understand that he was right on the concepts that led to his prediction.
A stall usually precedes a major track change
**WARNING** (The following statement is a OPINION)


It seems that Noel is either stalling or moving slowly east.
Am I the only one who sees a stall ?
1084. medic2luv 9:07 PM EDT on October 28, 2007 Hide this comment.
I'm no met, but don't these storms usually stall right before they change direction??
Models seem to be in more agreement of the turn (keeping it away from the US) now than they did on the 1200Z runs. Does anyone think that those models forecasted Noel to stall like he did?



I was just looking at the model plots from throughout the day and not one of them forecasted the motion to be less than around 5 mph...no stall was forecast, that's for sure
I see the Eastward movement as well...I think East at a slow clip, then back due West throughout the day tomorrow. I don't expect any kind of landfall for at least 24 hours
kmanislander 1:09 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
A stall usually precedes a major track change


Thats very true, however which way do you believe it will turn? some models forecasted a wnw movement such as the NOGAPS and UKMET, however that wasn't supposed to happen at least for another day, yet again this stall wasn't supposed to happen either. Any thoughts?
subtropicaljoe...yes, and he's right in this science call weather forecasting, missing by 100 miles is not a big error when no one else predicted a November storm more than a month ago. He specializes as you know in analogs..

La Nina years have always given Florida late season threats or hits...
650 miles wide ? get your caffine ready everyone its goin to be a long night with some surprises in store from mr noel
1094. Hhunter
not that i want to debate bastardi when we have a storm but his biggest tool is not teleconnections. It is a tool in his bag. basically he is an old school forecaster that uses the actual weather, analogs and does not slavishly rely on models. HE USES MODELS TO BOUNCE HIS IDEAS OFF OF.
Seems to be good agreement in the more northerly track.....

Link
T.S/N relocating, convective cycle on increase with a compaction of system is indicative of heavy convective activity possible an beginning shortly
track mark 16.9/70.9
HHunter I stand to be corrected..telecommunications are one tool of Bastardi...Your comments are well put
1098. Hhunter
HEY GUY IT IS TELECONNECTIONS NOT TELECOMMUNICATIONS.
lol bil...Im off for the next two days and I have coffee *smiles*
1096. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 1:15 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
T.S/N relocating, convective cycle on increase with a compaction of system is indicative of heavy convective activity possible an beginning shortly
track mark 16.9/70.9
Action: | Ignore
darn man i called that one 6 hours ago no one listen they said it was not a new center
I am checking out....I am blogged out for tonight...enough of Bastardi and I'll dream of Noel tonight! Take care all!
nite, wx
nite Baha
1104. 0741
Come on Noel- move west soon! I need something
to excite me in FL before the season ends...
Come on Baby!!!
we donot need it people can loss house like me i live mobile home i loss everything
065. JFV 12:56 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
Joe bastardi is more a hype and publicity meteorologist then anything else. Thats clearly a stated factual known fact.

Actually thats an opinion JFV, some people might say he is highly respected too like Bill Proenza some like Bill some don't. Its all about who you ask.
you think its 700 miles wide

and relocating the center to 70 west seems right there were 2 centers 6 hours ago i knew this one at 70 will win the race this makes noel look like a hurricane now with all that good outflow around the new center if its a offficail new center
847. nash28 11:35 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
I see nothing out of bounds from what Bastardi showed there.

You people make it sound like he is a complete idiot.

.
.
.
I think Bastardi is a smart guy. He's a trained meteorologist and a smart businessman. His forecasts however, are guided more by hype than science. You'll never see him pump a system that he's forecasting to go out to sea(something he rarely does). He pumps those systems that have the highest chance of hitting one of his 4 hot spots....Houston, NOLA, Miami, and New York. That's what pays the bucks.
.
.
The only idiots are those that pay anything for his pro or advanced subscriptions.
He has a degree in meteorology last time I checked and where do you think StormW reads most of his stuff from guess who? Accuweather and Joe B.

Why the language HH I did not say Joe was the greatest forecaster only stating everyone views on a person can be seen as an opinion.
1110. SamTeam
1106. Hhunter 8:26 PM CDT on October 28, 2007
YOU ARE FULL....


and you're out of line...chill out
Dvorak from SAB still shows the same center. I really dont think there is another one as the center of Noel is really too strong for another one to form.

T3.0/3.0 16L -- Atlantic Ocean

Good night all
Nite 236
Looking very stationary...

Link
1114. 0741
can we stop posting links to accweather jb video now we fight because some like him other donot i donot like accweather because their want buy out weather service make us pay for weather data few year ago
Hey Storm!! Good evenin, sir
Good Evening StormW!!

I had not looked at the shear maps for sometime, but the sat. presentation sure looks better to the ne. - the cirrus outflow is very clear.

BTW - the word on the blog is that we have a stall - what do you think??
Lowered sheer, yes. What are your thoughts about this apparent stall?
LOL InThe (good evenin to you too!!) *sits with InThe and waits*
Hi Baja!

Been lurking, was getting a bit "testy" around here for awhile!!! (or maybe that should be testosterony -lol!!)
1121. 0741
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/0741/show.html i have update how noel will affect south fl their thinking posting gale warring for coast off miami you read rest on blog
Thankx 0741 -

I'll stop by and give it a look see!

I knew it was supposed to get windy around here, but gale warnings - geez...
Nice to see you
1124. 0741
WITH THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE A
POSSIBILITY...AND GALE CONDITIONS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE GALE WARNING the rest on my blogLink
Yeah Baja -

I stay out of the fray when people get excitable, it's just not worth the aggravation. Plus, there are some good folks on here that I just like to sit back and read their posts.

Thanks for your links, BTW.
evening stormW
I hear ya, InThe. My need to be right just isn't that great anymore *laffs*...I figure, when Im 80 lookin back on my life, I wont even REMEMBER this stuff! In the grand scheme of things...it just ain't THAT important *winks*
Rare!! Good evenin!
1130. 0741
stormW how was your day? do you think this be hurr next 24-48 hour??
Exactly, you hit it right on the head! Just isn't that important, but I do love following the weather. Always have!!
local early news in so/ fla wfor says this

noel could miss the front coming down and can spin around and stall again just south of the tip of fla for several days stay tuned
Hey BAJA what ya doin? Im now on standby for the fires in Californisa and as of 15 minutes ago Im now on standby for Florida and or "NOEL"
I don't want this storm going near me but its just begging too.
Funny you posted that link, Storm. I was looking at this and posted it just a bit ago...

Link

Looks to be moving to the SW....Can also see the "swirl" mentioned in the discussion, above panama.
1137. 0741
who going be here ontill 2am avd?
So storm your saying if the trof does not get down then its headed west nw then catches the ridge and then rides it east into florida? I really am trying to learn those map things
Thanks Storm - very interesting. The longer it sits, the better the chances that the trof misses it.

The NHC is usually pretty good with tracks, but these late season storms could drive even the best "batty" - plus it is almost Halloween!!
1140. 0741
stormW how was your day? do you think this be hurr next 24-48 hour??
. 0741 2:09 AM GMT on October 29, 2007
who going be here ontill 2am avd?
Action: | Ignore User


memememe of corse dmax lots of things happen and we have the plane going in at that time am i right
Storm W, are you saying that it could miss the trough because its stalling or that the trough is not strong enough? Also, You're talking about the trough in the midwest and not the one over northern Florida correct?
local early news in so/ fla wfor says this

noel could miss the front coming down and can spin around and stall again just south of the tip of fla for several days stay tuned


Sure they said that even if it's a 1% chance, because they want max viewers for the next 3-4 days. They frequently wishcast ground zero hits to scare people to tune in every time.
Night all -

Some of you will probably still be here when I get up - lol!!

1145. 0741
stormybil i update my blog with new miami weather disussion
Nite InThe..be well
The next 48 hours will clear up many things.
vortex what time is the plane going in tonight is it at 2 am est thanks
1149. 0741
yes 2am
Evenin yall. Looks a bit exciting out there. Rareair, I am on stand by for fires and Noel also :)
thanks 0741
Evenin CB
1153. 0741
soon 11pm avd be out
rareaire: Who do you work for? Are you a adjuster?
I see things are getting interesting out there. Where do they think Noel is going?
1155. 0741
Link 11pm is out
1156. 0741
it starting look better for florida track move more east
Evenin Baja, I don't know if my previous post went into cyber...So now I will probably have them back to back.
How is everyone's weather out there?
1159. 0741
some rain here it getting windy i live here in miami
We have had a couple of beautiful days. And I have a new calf!
Windy and chilly here. Anything under 70 and I'm chilly :))...how's things out your way?
Awwwwww neat!! A new baby!!
Baja, 70 is just not chilly. Morning here are now in the 40's. But the afternoons are still warm.
brrrrrrrr...dewpoints about 46, so I expect we're headin' down that way
Actually, the dewpoint this afternoon was mid-50ish...so we wont be as cold as y'all are
Baja. It is really tiny and of course big ole mama won't let me near it.
Where are the great minds thinking Noel will go?
They're so cute..when I was growin up, my grampa had dairy cows. Used to LOVE the babies!
Baja, I thought about getting a milk cow, but you have to get up soooo early. also if I am gone for long periods of time it would be really bad for the cow. I thought I saw a post early this afternoon and someone was saying sleet in Houston. Must have misread the post.
Lookin' awful clear out your way ;)
Evening, all. Stopped 2 read the posts I missed before I commented. I'm going to head to bed now, because I want to be up at 3 so I can look at the sat pics closer to Dmax. The combination of that and the movement of that ULL away from Noel should result in some very interesting changes. I'm still also very curious as to whether the projected NW track will verify, or if we we see a more westerly component to the track once some more pronounced movement is seen.
Nite BaHa
Hey Baja.

No cows here. My grandma used to keep sheep and goats. For the mutton, mainly.
Looking at the satpics, it seems the outer northern edge of Noel is already covering the Turks, Caicos, Mayaguana and Inagua islands in the SE Bahamas. Looks like heavier showers will be in that area by tomorrow morning if Noel does indeed move north rather than west.
Baja, did you know that Dr. M. posted a new blog? I went to check email and there was a blog up.
Wow, GFDL is all by its lonesome on the Wward track at 18Z. I notice several models are bringing Noel through the gap without the eye hitting Cuba or Nrn Haiti.

Link
back.....

Yah, most seem pretty clustered to the north
1178. 0741
it looking better for florida