WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

TD 15 forms; tropical storm warnings in the Azores for Nadine

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2012

The first new tropical depression in the Atlantic since September 11 is here, Tropical Depression Fifteen. TD 15 is destined for a short life, though, and will not be a threat to any land areas. The storm is already showing signs that moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots is interfering with development, with most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms displaced away from the center of circulation. Wind shear is expected to rise to the high range, above 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday as the storm turns north and then northeast. Ocean temperatures will cool from 28°C today to 25°C by Saturday, and all of the computer models show TD 15 ceasing to exist by Saturday, as the storm becomes absorbed by a large extratropical storm. TD 15 is a classic example of a weak, short-lived tropical cyclone that would have gotten missed before satellites came around. If TD 15 strengthens, it will be called Tropical Storm Oscar.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of TD 15 taken at 8:52 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, TD 15 was just forming and had top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Nadine touring the Azores Islands--again
I'm-not-dead-yet Tropical Storm Nadine is back for a second tour of the Azores Islands, where tropical storm warnings are up for the storm's expected arrival tonight. Nadine is struggling with cool 21 - 22°C waters and high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and could transition to an extratropical storm later today or on Thursday as it heads east at 14 mph. Nadine is up to 21 days as a tropical or subtropical cyclone as of 2 pm today, making it the fifth longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone of all-time (tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes, but not extratropical storms.) According to the official HURDAT Atlantic database, which goes back to 1851, only five previous Atlantic tropical cyclones have lasted 21 days or longer (thanks go to Brian McNoldy for these stats):

1) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899: 28 days
2) Ginger, 1971: 27.25 days
3) Inga, 1969: 24.75 days
4) Kyle, 2002: 22 days
5) Nadine, 2012: 21 days
5) Hurricane Four, 1926: 21 days

According to the Hurricane FAQ, the all-time world record is held by Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific, which lasted 31 days as it traveled both the Northeast and Northwest Pacific basins during August and September 1994. (It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.) Of course, there may have been some longer-lived storms prior to 1961 that we didn't observe, due to the lack of satellite data.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 8:45 am EDT Wednesday, October 3, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks!
Thanks Doctor Masters for taking the time to write this new Blog. Much appreciated.

Goodnight all.
Southern CA today

a question please..has a storm ever come off of africa..formed..then went Back into africa? or do they always keep on going out into the atlantic
Nam at 72 hours...........
.......................GFS at 72 hours..we always have to watch the tail ends of fronts..see that low down by the islands?
Photobucket

Thank you, Dr Masters. Here comes the rain.
.........................GFS at 84 hours, LOW still there
Quoting LargoFl:
a question please..has a storm ever come off of africa..formed..then went Back into africa? or do they always keep on going out into the atlantic


A number of storms have moved through the Cape Verde Islands, but I do not recall any storm that hit the continent of Africa. (and my record-keeping goes back before 1851.)
.......................GFS at 96 hours, gathering moisture huh
Quoting LargoFl:
a question please..has a storm ever come off of africa..formed..then went Back into africa? or do they always keep on going out into the atlantic


2005's Tropical Storm Delta struck Morocco after it completed extratropical transition. But it didn't form from an African tropical wave. Tropical Storm Christine actually formed over West Africa, but didn't return there. Those are the only direct land impacts to Western Africa that I can find. Africa is simply too far south and east for a storm to actually affect it.
Quoting Grothar:


A number of storms have moved through the Cape Verde Islands, but I do not recall any storm that hit the continent of Africa. (and my record-keeping goes back before 1851.)
thanks Gro..sure would be funny to give them their storm back huh
Jeff~ Thanks for the new blog!

Hang on Nadine..
This morning's ASCAT
...........................ok the GFS at 120 hours..something is forming down there with 850 vort..something to watch
.......................Nam at 84 hours with 850 vort
Quoting captainktainer:


2005's Tropical Storm Delta struck Morocco after it completed extratropical transition. But it didn't form from an African tropical wave. Tropical Storm Christine actually formed over West Africa, but didn't return there. Those are the only direct land impacts to Western Africa that I can find. Africa is simply too far south and east for a storm to actually affect it.
ok ty for the reply!!
wow IC..you hear those huge boomers by you?............
hope i can catch that last frame....
Quoting LargoFl:
wow IC..you hear those huge boomers by you?............
I'm hearing those now, just got home from class.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm hearing those now, just got home from class.
whew this is going to be a big one..hope no land falling water spouts etc..IC is on the beach area
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1212 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

GMZ853-873-031715-
1212 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 1212 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS 21 NM WEST OF
PASS-A-GRILLE CHANNEL...OR ABOUT 19 NM WEST OF EGMONT KEY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.
Thank you Dr. Masters
Met Office threatened with legal action over 'pessimistic' forecasts

Link
How to Watch SpaceX's Private Rocket Launch Sunday
By Clara Moskowitz | SPACE.com – 20 hrs ago


A private rocket is set to launch toward the International Space Station next week, and viewers in Florida will have an awesome view.

The unmanned SpaceX Dragon capsule is due to lift off on the company's Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Sunday (Oct. 7) at 8:35 p.m. EDT (0035 GMT Monday). The commercially built spacecraft will deliver food and supplies to the crew of the International Space Station in the first of 12 cargo missions SpaceX is contracted for by NASA.

The liftoff will be a night launch, one of the most impressive kinds of rocket launches to view, and should be visible across Florida's Space Coast and beyond.

"Night launches are spectacular, and especially if you're close, it really lights up the whole area," said photographer Ben Cooper, who runs the website LaunchPhotography.com, which offers rocket launch viewing tips for the public. [SpaceX Dragon Capsule Launch Pictures]

The best viewing spot requires a ticket through NASA's Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex, but offers an incredible view at only 4 miles from the Falcon's launch pad. Transportation to this spot, called the NASA Causeway, is selling for $20 plus admission to the Visitor Complex ($50 + tax for adults and $40 + tax for children ages 3-11).

"Because SpaceX launches from a different launch pad than the shuttle, it's a lot closer to the Causeway," Cooper said. "I believe it's the closest viewing site they've ever sold tickets for."

If the launch is delayed, Visitor Complex admission will be honored the following day for a second launch attempt, although guests may have to purchase Causeway tickets again.

"We've seen a great response, but we still have some tickets available, if folks are still interested," Visitor Complex spokeswoman Andrea Farmer told SPACE.com.

"It's going to be a spectacular launch," she added. "There's nothing like a night launch on the Florida Space Coast."

For would-be observers unwilling or unable to buy tickets through Kennedy Space Center, there are plenty of great places to watch that don't require a fee.

Cooper advises people to view from Port Canaveral, a popular cruise ship port near the space center that's only 8 miles from the SpaceX launch pad. He recommended watching from the side of the road on Route 401, the street behind the cruise terminals, or on Route 528 (the latter has more room for parking, he said).

The most popular viewing spots for space shuttle launches, such as Titusville's Space View Park, are not necessarily good spots for watching the Falcon blast off, because of the difference in location between their launch pads.

Cooper's website showcases sample launch photos taken at the various viewing sites open to the public. He recommends photographing night launches with professional cameras only — point-and-shoots usually produce blurry blobs of light.

"If you have a professional camera and it's a night launch, my recommendation is to set your shot up and let the camera do the work while you watch it, especially if it's your first launch," he said.

If SpaceX delays the launch, T-zero time is set to move up by 24 minutes each day. So if the launch is pushed to Monday (Oct. 8), for example, the Falcon 9 will lift off at 8:11 p.m. EDT (0011 GMT Tuesday). As the launch time moves earlier, it heads from night launch territory into twilight. If the flight is pushed as far as Oct. 11, it will be lifting off just at sunset, and any later will mean a daytime launch.

"In my opinion, sunrise and sunset are the best launches," Cooper said. "As it gets more into the daytime it'll become a little less spectacular."

And if you can't make it to Florida to watch the launch, you can always check out NASA's live broadcast on NASA TV.
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks Gro..sure would be funny to give them their storm back huh


This is Christine, which is the only known storm known which was named while still over Africa. It is mentioned every hurricane season. I didn't include it because your question only asked if a storm moved back over Africa.

Quoting sunlinepr:
How to Watch SpaceX's Private Rocket Launch Sunday
By Clara Moskowitz | SPACE.com – 20 hrs ago


A private rocket is set to launch toward the International Space Station next week, and viewers in Florida will have an awesome view.

The unmanned SpaceX Dragon capsule is due to lift off on the company's Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Sunday (Oct. 7) at 8:35 p.m. EDT (0035 GMT Monday). The commercially built spacecraft will deliver food and supplies to the crew of the International Space Station in the first of 12 cargo missions SpaceX is contracted for by NASA.

The liftoff will be a night launch, one of the most impressive kinds of rocket launches to view, and should be visible across Florida's Space Coast and beyond.

"Night launches are spectacular, and especially if you're close, it really lights up the whole area," said photographer Ben Cooper, who runs the website LaunchPhotography.com, which offers rocket launch viewing tips for the public. [SpaceX Dragon Capsule Launch Pictures]

The best viewing spot requires a ticket through NASA's Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex, but offers an incredible view at only 4 miles from the Falcon's launch pad. Transportation to this spot, called the NASA Causeway, is selling for $20 plus admission to the Visitor Complex ($50 + tax for adults and $40 + tax for children ages 3-11).

"Because SpaceX launches from a different launch pad than the shuttle, it's a lot closer to the Causeway," Cooper said. "I believe it's the closest viewing site they've ever sold tickets for."

If the launch is delayed, Visitor Complex admission will be honored the following day for a second launch attempt, although guests may have to purchase Causeway tickets again.

"We've seen a great response, but we still have some tickets available, if folks are still interested," Visitor Complex spokeswoman Andrea Farmer told SPACE.com.

"It's going to be a spectacular launch," she added. "There's nothing like a night launch on the Florida Space Coast."

For would-be observers unwilling or unable to buy tickets through Kennedy Space Center, there are plenty of great places to watch that don't require a fee.

Cooper advises people to view from Port Canaveral, a popular cruise ship port near the space center that's only 8 miles from the SpaceX launch pad. He recommended watching from the side of the road on Route 401, the street behind the cruise terminals, or on Route 528 (the latter has more room for parking, he said).

The most popular viewing spots for space shuttle launches, such as Titusville's Space View Park, are not necessarily good spots for watching the Falcon blast off, because of the difference in location between their launch pads.

Cooper's website showcases sample launch photos taken at the various viewing sites open to the public. He recommends photographing night launches with professional cameras only — point-and-shoots usually produce blurry blobs of light.

"If you have a professional camera and it's a night launch, my recommendation is to set your shot up and let the camera do the work while you watch it, especially if it's your first launch," he said.

If SpaceX delays the launch, T-zero time is set to move up by 24 minutes each day. So if the launch is pushed to Monday (Oct. 8), for example, the Falcon 9 will lift off at 8:11 p.m. EDT (0011 GMT Tuesday). As the launch time moves earlier, it heads from night launch territory into twilight. If the flight is pushed as far as Oct. 11, it will be lifting off just at sunset, and any later will mean a daytime launch.

"In my opinion, sunrise and sunset are the best launches," Cooper said. "As it gets more into the daytime it'll become a little less spectacular."

And if you can't make it to Florida to watch the launch, you can always check out NASA's live broadcast on NASA TV.
I hope this steady overcast is gone by then, a clear night sky would give us an awesome view of that
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Met Office threatened with legal action over 'pessimistic' forecasts

Link



Wow, this blog could really be in trouble if they ever took legal action against us for our comments.
Quoting LargoFl:
wow IC..you hear those huge boomers by you?............


Yes! This could be an interesting afternoon.

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
Quoting Grothar:



Wow, this blog could really be in trouble if they ever took legal action against us for our comments.
LOL you got that right Gro
Quoting icmoore:


Yes! This could be an interesting afternoon.

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
the boomers are shaking my house geez
Quoting Grothar:



Wow, this blog could really be in trouble if they ever took legal action against us for our comments.


The question to anwser is:

Is trustable weather forecasting a right or a priviledge?
Quoting sunlinepr:


The question to anwser is:

Is trustable weather forecasting a right or a priviledge?
actually we are private citizens discussing the weather, not a weather authority in any shape size or form..my guess is private conversations in a blog are ok
Quoting LargoFl:
the boomers are shaking my house geez


My rain total from yesterday and this morning was about 1.80" with about 1.50" of that from this morning. Heavy rain now.
Quoting icmoore:


My rain total from yesterday and this morning was about 1.80" with about 1.50" of that from this morning. Heavy rain now.
yes same here..heavy rain and tons of lightning etc...glad im indoors whew
Quoting sunlinepr:


The question to anwser is:

Is trustable weather forecasting a right or a priviledge?


I take the 5th amendment.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
so much for the front moving through earlier than forecast, as you said last night :p


Actually, the front did move through, we had a wind shift and drier air started to filer in. However, the front quickly lifted back north overnight, we ended up getting nearly 2 inches so far and a line of stronger thunderstorms is about to move in right now. It's the first stronger thunderstorm in this more stable pattern. Upper divergence is indeed stronger now.

Remember, I didn't say it wouldn't happen, I just said my confidence wasn't that high because the high to the southeast would have to quickly build northeast, well it did, thankfully!

How is td 15 doing better,worse or the same?
..................looks like Tampa has been missing all the action today huh
The rainfall rate is extreme right now, street is flooded in less than 10 minutes, the wind and lightning aren't too shabby either. This morning and yesterday was just heavy showers, we are getting some deeper convection now. With a pwat of 2.2 to 2.4 stronger cells really unload the rain.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri

..first off..Happy birthday!!..and no..the season is NOT over..October is the most dangerous month of all..for Florida the nws says..historically florida gets most of its tropical systems In october..more than any other month..but..most of these storms come from the gulf or carribean and not from africa..usually
Don't you just hate when you put a jacket on and use an umbrella yet still get drenched by the rain? When it rains it pours in FL. It only took a couple minutes and the street was already flooded.
say GRO..do the GFS at 96 thru 120 hours and see if you can see what i saw down by the islands...
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Don't you just hate when you put a jacket on and use an umbrella yet still get drenched by the rain? When it rains it pours in FL. It only took a couple minutes and the street was already flooded.
yeah same by me and the tree's are swaying and the rain so going sideways and Heavy
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
117 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

FLZ049>051-031815-
PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-PINELLAS-
117 PM EDT WED OCT 3 2012

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR SAFETY HARBOR...OR 6 MILES EAST OF CLEARWATER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT SAFETY HARBOR...CLEARWATER...
BELLEAIR AND SAINT PETE CLEARWATER AIRPORT...UNTIL 215 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 IN PINELLAS COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&
Here is the October/November forecast by CSU for the Caribbean. They say it will be average TC formation in the Caribbean.

Link
Quoting LargoFl:
.......................Nam at 84 hours with 850 vort
The GFS shows it too, I wonder if it will be tropical or non-tropical.

NASA radar to study volcanoes in Alaska and Japan
Posted on October 3, 2012


Link

Link
October 3, 2012 – VOLCANOES - A NASA aircraft carrying a unique 3-D aerial radar developed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., has left California for a 10-day campaign to study active volcanoes in Alaska and Japan. The modified NASA C-20A (G-III) aircraft, with JPL’s Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) installed in a pod under its belly, departed NASA’s Dryden Aircraft Operations Facility in Palmdale, Calif., Oct. 2, en route to Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Tacoma, Wash. Along the way, it will image volcanoes in the western United States. After refueling, the aircraft will travel on to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, where UAVSAR will image a series of volcanoes, including those in the Aleutian Islands. UAVSAR can see below Earth’s surface to monitor very subtle deformations. NASA scientists periodically use UAVSAR to monitor subtle changes in volcanic activity. The radar uses a technique called interferometry, which sends pulses of microwave energy from the sensor on the aircraft to the ground to detect and measure very subtle Earth surface deformations. The plane will then fly to Japan’s Yokota Air Force Base near Tokyo. Yokota is the staging location for science missions to collect data about volcanoes on several islands in Japan that pose a hazard to nearby populations. On its return, the aircraft will repeat the route, acquiring data from the opposite viewing direction, before arriving back at its base in Palmdale Oct. 11. This study builds on UAVSAR research of U.S. West Coast and Hawaiian volcanoes acquired from 2009 through 2011 and additional observations of Central and South American volcanoes gathered in 2010 and 2011. The aircraft features a high-precision autopilot designed and developed by engineers at NASA’s Dryden Flight Research Center. The Precision Platform Autopilot guides the aircraft using a kinematic differential Global Positioning System developed by JPL along with the aircraft’s inertial navigation system to enable it to fly repeat paths to an accuracy of 15 feet (4.6 meters) or less. With the precision autopilot engaged, the synthetic aperture radar is able to acquire repeat-pass data that can measure land-surface changes within millimeters. UAVSAR provides a measurement system that complements satellite-based observations by providing rapid revisits and imaging of active volcanoes to better understand their deformation prior to, during or after an eruption. In addition to the NASA study of volcanoes, the UAVSAR team is working with Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency scientists to define cross-calibration sites, including flight lines over disaster and forested areas, between the UAVSAR and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Polarimetric and Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar with L-band 2 (PISAR-L2). –JPL NASA
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The GFS shows it too, I wonder if it will be tropical or non-tropical.

thanks for seeing it also..something to watch for sure in the coming days
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Good Morning everyone. I was wondering with all the cold fronts coming down and the cool weather is hurricane season closed? Don't be to harsh on me today is my birthday and I am just wondering with the cool fronts are they cooling the waters pretty fast to where nothing will be able happen?

sheri

..first off..Happy birthday!!..and no..the season is NOT over..October is the most dangerous month of all..for Florida the nws says..historically florida gets most of its tropical systems In october..more than any other month..but..most of these storms come from the gulf or carribean and not from africa..usually


That is true but each year is different. In some years, the cooler air takes hold earlier and indeed this does tend to dampen the tropical cyclone potential due to a lowering of the SSTs in the GOM and nearby Atlantic waters. So far in this year however, that has not happened.

There are some indications that the first significant cold front could come down into the Florida area, possibly pushing all the way through the peninsula this time, during the middle of next week. If so, this could be a double-edged sword because it could cool the waters of the Gulf somewhat but also stimulate convective development further south in the area where the front would stall out. And if that happens then whatever forms down over the Caribbean could work its way back toward Florida. Time will tell us what happens.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


That is true but each year is different. In some years, the cooler air takes hold earlier and indeed this does tend to dampen the tropical cyclone potential due to a lowering of the SSTs in the GOM and nearby Atlantic waters. So far in this year however, that has not happened.

There are some indications that the first significant cold front could come down into the Florida area, possibly pushing all the way through the peninsula this time, during the middle of next week. If so, this could be a double-edged sword because it could cool the waters of the Gulf somewhat but also stimulate convective development further south in the area where the front would stall out. And if that happens then whatever forms down over the Caribbean could work its way back toward Florida. Time will tell us what happens.
true every year is different, i was talking over the long term, more tropical systems hit florida in october..19 if i remember right, the closest to that was 14 in another month,NWS says october we need to keep watching the tropics for sure
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 84A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...NADINE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 32.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST. NADINE HAS
INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR
18 MPH...29 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. THIS
TRACK SHOULD BRING NADINE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN THE CENTER
MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting Jedkins01:
The rainfall rate is extreme right now, street is flooded in less than 10 minutes, the wind and lightning aren't too shabby either. This morning and yesterday was just heavy showers, we are getting some deeper convection now. With a pwat of 2.2 to 2.4 stronger cells really unload the rain.


Yo, Jed. You're beginning to sound like Reed!
..moving up the coast now
Quoting LargoFl:
say GRO..do the GFS at 96 thru 120 hours and see if you can see what i saw down by the islands...


I think I see a low hanging around for a few days. The EMCWF also has it.

Holy mama. I take a couple of weeks off from the real world and come back to ... Nadine? My god girl you got some stamina.

This is why I love Hurricanes and Tropical Storms and weather in general. You never know what's going to happen and when it does it gives you so many new and interesting things to consider.
Quoting Grothar:


I think I see a low hanging around for a few days. The EMCWF also has it.

something to see where it finally goes, GFS at 166 hours still has it there
EL-NINO AND LA-NINA..how do they affect Florida winters?.............Link

Since 1851, hurricane center records show 19 storms have struck South Florida in October, compared to 15 in September and 11 in August.


In October, the patterns that produce hurricanes tend to shift. Tropical waves rolling off Africa and spinning up off the Cape Verde Islands begin to dissolve as ocean waters start to cool and winds aloft begin to strengthen.


At the same time, stirrings in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico tend to pick up as cold fronts pushing down from the north collide with the warm, moist atmosphere to the south, often sparking storms. A bi-weekly forecast produced by Colorado State University climate scientists Phil Klotzbach and William Gray predicts an average level of activity over the next few weeks, with potential rising toward the middle of the month.


For Florida, location is the primary problem with October storms — they form to the south and tend to move north, with less time and space to veer harmlessly out to sea.


“If you form in the western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, you’re probably going to hit land somewhere,” hurricane center Director Rick Knabb said. “We’ve seen a lot of storms in the past affect South Florida from the south. Think of Wilma in 2005 and Irene in 1999.”


Later season storms also can prove powerful. At one point while in the Caribbean, Hurricane Wilma’s winds reached 185 mph and became the most intense Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. The storm would eventually do some $29 billion in damage in Florida, Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula and kill more than 60 people.


Though tropical storms can form at any time of year, the official season tends to slow in November before ending on Dec. 1.
Oscar Meyer Weiner
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Oscar Meyer Weiner
LOL and the jokes begin, we knew that would be coming
000
WTNT44 KNHC 031433
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 84
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012

STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA
SUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...
AND NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS OR MUCH EARLIER BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.


I feel like some sort of eulogy should be in order. She's been part of our lives for so long. :)

Quoting calkevin77:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 031433
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 84
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012

STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW
COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA
SUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...
AND NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT
36 HOURS OR MUCH EARLIER BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.


I feel like some sort of eulogy should be in order. She's been part of our lives for so long. :)

she sure has been around a long time huh
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Oscar Meyer Weiner
I am not sure if its looking better or worse.
Quoting LargoFl:
LOL and the jokes begin, we knew that would be coming
of course oscar. just wait till we have hurricane krabby patty
Quoting LargoFl:
true every year is different, i was talking over the long term, more tropical systems hit florida in october..19 if i remember right, the closest to that was 14 in another month,NWS says october we need to keep watching the tropics for sure
You'll like this list Largo, 117 storms have affected Florida in the month of October. And here is a statistic some might not have known, " Monroe County was struck by 26 hurricanes since 1926, which is the greatest total for any county in the United States."

Link
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ....WHEN ARE WE GOING TO GET REAL AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS???? WE WANT FLOODS HERE....
83. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
she sure has been around a long time huh


22 days and is the 5th long living strom in history on the list enjoy your rainy day lol
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
of course oscar. just wait till we have hurricane krabby patty
Or Patty Mayonnaise :P
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
of course oscar. just wait till we have hurricane krabby patty


Or she may be our sweet little Patty cake :)
Quoting Grothar:
Sorry Grothar I stole the credit from you, should have read down the page, I didn't have to go far either.
Good day to all from America's left coast
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Or Patty Mayonnaise :P

Huh?
Quoting icmoore:


Or she may be our sweet little Patty cake :)

OMG
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Sorry Grothar I stole the credit from you, should have read down the page, I didn't have to go far either.


You youngsters have to keep up. :) Here is another little map of all the path of major hurricanes that have hit Florida since 1851. Looks like Polk county has been impacted more than any other county. (Shaded counties have had the most impacts. Now you know of course at least 15 entries will read that they were not "direct hits"

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good day to all from America's left coast


Joe, you finally woke up.
I want winter already
Quoting TomballTXPride:

OMG


LOL! Haven't most of the female storms this year been a piece of cake?
Quoting icmoore:


Or she may be our sweet little Patty cake :)
omg she better be a major or else
Quoting icmoore:


LOL! Haven't most of the female storms this year been a piece of cake?
She or Valerie may be the exceptions.
TD 15 remains that way on 18z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 418W, 30, 1008, TD
Quoting icmoore:


LOL! Haven't most of the female storms this year been a piece of cake?
more like a pos. O-O
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Met Office threatened with legal action over 'pessimistic' forecasts

Link
I guess the UK believes their Meterolgists more than America. I always look at the radar before falling for the Miami weather forecasts. They say South Florida, which usually does not include the keys in the general forecast.
Quoting allancalderini:
She or Valerie may be the exceptions.
valerie? i wish. Seriously i do wish for that many
Short hallo from a lazy holiday (today it's the Memorial day of the unification of Germany).
I just have noticed, that one of the most famous weather stations of Germany, the weather station on top of the Wendelstein (6030 feet) in the northern Alpes / southern Bavaria was closed by our national weather service (DWD) due to austerity. The station has been running for 130 years.
One of the staff members send a collection of really breathtaking photos from this station to a german weather site. If you are bored you might have a look.

Foto by Claudia Hinz / wetteronline
BBL, Barb
Im still very upset over yesterday's insane decision to start naming winter storms. I thought there would be a few purests here who felt the same way. I am willing to do whatever needs to be done to stop this infamnia from happening.

Names must be reserved only for tropical cyclones. This seems to be another way TWC rokerizes its product. I will never forgive them for the day that, during a major upper-midwestern tornado outbreak...they went with "A Flick and a Forecast".
I see this as an extension of that.

What's next? Naming good weather systems? ( Hudson Bay High Pressure Center Marv?).

Who's with me?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You'll like this list Largo, 117 storms have affected Florida in the month of October. And here is a statistic some might not have known, " Monroe County was struck by 26 hurricanes since 1926, which is the greatest total for any county in the United States."

Link


Florida certainly is quite vulnerable to tropical cyclone strikes in October. The question always is though, what kind of October are we going to have? Is it going to be a warmer than average October, with high SSTs in the Gulf and Atlantic waters, low wind shear and above-average moisture and warmth hanging around at higher latitudes? Or will it be a cooler than average October with frequent cold fronts pushing through, lowered SSTs in the GOM and Atlantic and high wind shear values, particularly above about latitude 22N?

Clearly it is the warmer than average seasons which offer the greatest threat for storms in Florida. The October of 2005 was a good example of this, when Wilma made its way across South Florida as a strong Cat 3 hurricane. But there were many years during the cooler short term climate cycle of the 1970s and early 1980s when tropical cyclones were not a threat during October because the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that far north were too hostile to support intense tropical systems.

Also, even though Florida is vulnerable to October cyclones the potential for landfall shifts location later in the season and on average, October storms are not as fierce as those of August and September. In August and September the prevailing steering currents favor storms which make landfall on the Southeast coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and the Western Florida Panhandle, as well as other areas outside of the state such as the Western Gulf Coast. In October it is the Western Coast of Florida which becomes more vulnerable along with the Keys and South Florida in general. But the storms during this period are much more likely to approach the state from the South and Southwest rather than from the East and SE, such as is the case earlier in the season.

During those years when the atmospheric and oceanic conditions near Florida are not favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes, the potentially dangerous Caribbean storms tend to turn northeast while they are still below Cuba and then move away from the state and out over the open Atlantic waters.
the weather channel's facebook page is getting a lot of negative comments on their we-name-the-storms post.
TD 15 may be the 1st TD. Wish may not get a name
Charley wasn't major by the time it hit central florida, and it was pretty small.
Jeanne, Francis, 2005 had several brushes, even TS fay in 2008 had a major impact on central Florida.
I don't think the history of "Major" hurricanes tracking through central florida realy grasps the severity or frequency of impacts to the area.
Much colder air coming down the plains and into TX this weekend. Fall has come.
Wow! Strong winds and heavy rain coming in, I just lost my chairs on my front porch, as well as my garbage cans that I so ignorantly forgot to bring in.
Same as GFS, the 12z Euro has the low north of Hispanola at 96 hours.

Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 15 may be the 1st TD. Wish may not get a name
I agree it looks like the curse of this list will continue unless this td is named today or tomorrow morning.




News media fails with truth, sugar coat everything.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wow! Strong winds and heavy rain coming in, I just lost my chairs on my front porch, as well as my garbage cans that I so ignorantly forgot to bring in.


Well, you cannot throw the chairs away until you get your garbage cans back. Stay safe and out of the weather until then.
Quoting Tazmanian:
TD 15 may be the 1st TD. Wish may not get a name

That would be so frustrating, lol.

Good afternoon everyone.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE REGION.


BORING BORING BORING BORING BORING CANT NO MORE!!!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That would be so frustrating, lol.

Good afternoon everyone.

Good afternoon MA, I would be pretty frustrated too if 96L doesn't get named and we don't get Oscar.
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it likely will be at 5am.

Quoting RitaEvac:




News media fails with truth, sugar coat everything.
Yeah, they're a little low. Your drought monitor says, Texas drought: 78.73%, extreme or greater 30.09%. (ADD: I think that news graphic used the previous week's data.)

Oklahoma Drought: 100%, extreme or greater 95.33%.
Neener. lol

At least Texas beat Oklahoma State on the football field last Saturday. Well, barely.
;)

Tomorrow's drought monitor should look better for Texas and better in small spots for OK - thanks to Norman, the TS.
Image added:
Quoting RitaEvac:




News media fails with truth, sugar coat everything.


Hoping that with the recent widespread rains that took place over the weekend, that tomorrow's weekly report shows some improvement.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it likely will be at 5am.

That means she would not beat Kyle:(
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it likely will be at 5am.


Nadine's winds are still slowly dropping along with pressure rising. I think Nadine should be Nadone at 11pm.
Quoting Grothar:


You youngsters have to keep up. :) Here is another little map of all the path of major hurricanes that have hit Florida since 1851. Looks like Polk county has been impacted more than any other county. (Shaded counties have had the most impacts. Now you know of course at least 15 entries will read that they were not "direct hits"



Reminds me how Polk County, and also Orlando were afflicted much greater than the Tampa Bay are from Charley, they also received a worse strike from the other hurricanes of 2004 than us.

I have one one problem with that map though, its a bit old :) it missed hurricane Jeanne, which hit the east coast of Florida as a category 3 in 2004. Also, don't forget hurricane Wilma.


Interestingly enough though, when you include the mid 180's into the early 1900's period, it doesn't make the Tampa Bay area look so spared. However, there are other parts of the state even going back to the 1800's that did not have a major strike.


It's also interesting to see how tropical cyclones tend to have had "favored zones" over the years where there landfalls bunch up. It looks like Tampa Bay up into Hernando county was actually once one of those zones where several struck, scary indeed.
Portions of Canada are going to see over a foot of snow on Friday and Saturday.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Portions of Canada are going to see over a foot of snow on Friday and Saturday.



Athena! Haha.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Portions of Canada are going to see over a foot of snow on Friday and Saturday.

That also looks like a blown up image of a super cell thunderstorm with a hook echo. Anyway it is getting cooler and cooler and closer to winter.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wow! Strong winds and heavy rain coming in, I just lost my chairs on my front porch, as well as my garbage cans that I so ignorantly forgot to bring in.



Sounds like the same line of convection that blew my trash cans around and flew tree debris through the air. Most convection has been tame since yesterday. But that was a pretty strong cell, intense lightning and wind came with it, some street flooding for me as well.
a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Water vapor

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Infrared
Quoting Jedkins01:


Reminds me how Polk County, and also Orlando were afflicted much greater than the Tampa Bay are from Charley, they also received a worse strike from the other hurricanes of 2004 than us.

I have one one problem with that map though, its a bit old :) it missed hurricane Jeanne, which hit the east coast of Florida as a category 3 in 2004. Also, don't forget hurricane Wilma.


Interestingly enough though, when you include the mid 180's into the early 1900's period, it doesn't make the Tampa Bay area look so spared. However, there are other parts of the state even going back to the 1800's that did not have a major strike.


It's also interesting to see how tropical cyclones tend to have had "favored zones" over the years where there landfalls bunch up. It looks like Tampa Bay up into Hernando county was actually once one of those zones where several struck, scary indeed.


Yes, the map only goes to 2004. I tried to find the other one I had that went to 2010, but couldn't find it. The Tampa Bay area had several brushes with storms. And no, I can't forget Wilma, (It went right over my house :)

We really have been very lucky over the past few years.
Quoting goalexgo:
Im still very upset over yesterday's insane decision to start naming winter storms. I thought there would be a few purests here who felt the same way. I am willing to do whatever needs to be done to stop this infamnia from happening.

Names must be reserved only for tropical cyclones. This seems to be another way TWC rokerizes its product. I will never forgive them for the day that, during a major upper-midwestern tornado outbreak...they went with "A Flick and a Forecast".
I see this as an extension of that.

What's next? Naming good weather systems? ( Hudson Bay High Pressure Center Marv?).

Who's with me?
I am,with you, winter storms need to be classify as winter storms. Hurricanes has been name by most people in the caribbean before the U.S. existed as a country. In the island of Puerto Rico,"La Española",Cuba, for our Catholic heritage, we called them by the name of the Saints in the catholic calendar,since the 16 century.
Here in Madeira Beach we have already recieved about 2.10" of rain today with what looks like a good bit more to come.
Quoting Grothar:


You youngsters have to keep up. :) Here is another little map of all the path of major hurricanes that have hit Florida since 1851. Looks like Polk county has been impacted more than any other county. (Shaded counties have had the most impacts. Now you know of course at least 15 entries will read that they were not "direct hits"



I'd like to see that pre 1851 file you spoke of.. hoping it wasn't another geezer joke.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That would be so frustrating, lol.

Good afternoon everyone.
The current scene from Dickinson, North Dakota.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DEFINED BY SEVERAL SWIRLS
REVOLVING AROUND A COMMON POINT...WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 80 N MI
TO THE WEST OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS
ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
INFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 21.2N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 22.9N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Quoting plutorising:
the weather channel's facebook page is getting a lot of negative comments on their we-name-the-storms post.


Nobody likes change. It was the same when we went to dial phones. People hated it. They still wanted to talk to an operator. They also thought zip codes was a waste of money and would never work.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Portions of Canada are going to see over a foot of snow on Friday and Saturday.


The US won't make out too poorly either.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 AM MDT WED OCT 3 2012

MTZ048-040000-
/O.UPG.KTFX.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-121004T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KTFX.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-121004T0000Z/
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...CHOTEAU
936 AM MDT WED OCT 3 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT
THIS EVENING.

* TIMING AND MAIN IMPACT: PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THROUGH
TODAY. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES IS
EXPECTED BELOW 6000 FEET...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE
6000 FEET.


* WINDS AND VISIBILITY: NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITIES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: TRAVEL THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY BECOME
DIFFICULT WITH SNOW OR SLUSH COVERED ROADS. THOSE WITH
RECREATION PLANS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
CONDITIONS.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE: CHOTEAU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND
WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

FOR SPECIFIC ROAD AND TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN MONTANA...DIAL 5 1 1.

&&

$$
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR.
Snowfall totals are already beginning to roll in.

Quoting Grothar:


Nobody likes change. It was the same when we went to dial phones. People hated it. They still wanted to talk to an operator. They also thought zip codes was a waste of money and would never work.


yea, just like those doubters when you invented the wheel eh... you showed them. Gro's first race...

My thoughts on Accuweather's forecast.



The above normal snowfall in the East needs to be extended through all of New England, and pushed west some into Ohio. The below average area needs to be trimmed back west to around Minnesota and replaced with average snowfall. And the little above pocket in the west should be removed and replaced with average. Just my thoughts.
Quoting Grothar:


Nobody likes change. It was the same when we went to dial phones. People hated it. They still wanted to talk to an operator. They also thought zip codes was a waste of money and would never work.
I read this idiotic, or was it ...book called "Who Moved My Cheese" by Spencer Johnson a few years ago...Not that I liked the book, but I guess it was truthful
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Same as GFS, the 12z Euro has the low north of Hispanola at 96 hours.

This low will re-curve back to the middle atlantic,this time of year nothing is going to go through the Bahamas to many fronts coming down.
Quoting barbamz:
Short hallo from a lazy holiday (today it's the Memorial day of the unification of Germany).
I just have noticed, that one of the most famous weather stations of Germany, the weather station on top of the Wendelstein (6030 feet) in the northern Alpes / southern Bavaria was closed by our national weather service (DWD) due to austerity. The station has been running for 130 years.
One of the staff members send a collection of really breathtaking photos from this station to a german weather site. If you are bored you might have a look.

Foto by Claudia Hinz / wetteronline
BBL, Barb


Stories like this are troubling. Far more troubling than the story of TWC naming winter storms. If our global society can afford to pay movie stars and the heads of large companies the equivalent of a small nation's GDP, but we cannot afford to keep weather stations and weather satellites operational, I fear our collective priorities have gone far astray...

Quoting indianrivguy:


I'd like to see that pre 1851 file you spoke of.. hoping it wasn't another geezer joke.


Here is a link to an interesting Paleotempestology reconstruction of the the pre-HURDAT era. I will look in my archives for the other maps.

Link
Winter is starting a little early in some places... I see that Nebraska and South Dakota might get in on some snow.... IS this earlier then usual for them?
10/03/2012 1226 PM

Grassy Butte, McKenzie County.

Snow m1.0 inch, reported by co-op observer.


One inch of snow measured so far near Grassy Butte.
Moderate snow is still falling. Visibility down to a
quarter mile.

10/03/2012 0322 PM

8 miles NW of Amidon, Slope County.

Snow m2.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Storm total so far. Snowflakes were large.

10/03/2012 0254 PM

Halliday, Dunn County.

Snow e3.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.


Three inches storm total so far. Snow accumulation was
on grass.

Just as a quick reminder...we are in the last two months of hurricane season. BUT, that does not mean the United States, or any other location in the Caribbean Sea, is safe. In fact...they are anything but.

CSU is calling for one hurricane in the West Caribbean at some point over the next two months. There is plenty of fuel in the area for something to become a monster if upper-air conditions permit. They may or they may not, we shall see.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just as a quick reminder...we are in the last two months of hurricane season. BUT, that does not mean the United States, or any other location in the Caribbean Sea, is safe. In fact...they are anything but.

CSU is calling for one hurricane in the West Caribbean at some point over the next two months. There is plenty of fuel in the area for something to become a monster if upper-air conditions permit. They may or they may not, we shall see.

wx13............October is a scary month for us here in south Florida
Quoting Grothar:


Nobody likes change. It was the same when we went to dial phones. People hated it. They still wanted to talk to an operator. They also thought zip codes was a waste of money and would never work.


Don't forget, its not a widespread change. It will be exclusive to The Weather Channel. If you don't watch The Weather Channel or go to their website, you will never even hear of any named winter storms.
Quoting Chucktown:


Don't forget, its not a widespread change. It will be exclusive to The Weather Channel. If you don't watch The Weather Channel or go to their website, you will never even hear of any named winter storms.
Oh yes you will Chuck
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Oh yes you will Chuck


IMO we'll have no clue until the first storm is named by TWC. I'm going to grab some popcorn and see how things unfold.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
My thoughts on Accuweather's forecast.



The above normal snowfall in the East needs to be extended through all of New England, and pushed west some into Ohio. The below average area needs to be trimmed back west to around Minnesota and replaced with average snowfall. And the little above pocket in the west should be removed and replaced with average. Just my thoughts.

I would be happy if it got pushed into Florida
Quoting Chucktown:


Don't forget, its not a widespread change. It will be exclusive to The Weather Channel. If you don't watch The Weather Channel or go to their website, you will never even hear of any named winter storms.


I imagine it will be all over this blog.
Quoting Chucktown:


Don't forget, its not a widespread change. It will be exclusive to The Weather Channel. If you don't watch The Weather Channel or go to their website, you will never even hear of any named winter storms.
I wouldn't count on that. TWC is the nation's largest and best-known non-governmental weather provider, and it's available in tens of millions of households. So it wouldn't surprise me at all were some broadcast and internet outlets unaffiliated with TWC to pick up the names. Say, after a number of their own viewers start asking, "Hey, what do you guys at Intellicast think will happen with WS Plato?"

At any rate, here's what the NWS has to say about the TWC naming plan:

"The National Weather Service has no opinion about private weather enterprise products and services. A winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins. While the National Weather Service does not name winter storms, we do rate major winter storms after the fact."

And that seems about as non-committal as possible, no?
That's a nasty blast of cold moving southward through the Northern Plains. A pair of examples:

--Imperial, Nebraska is at 90 now after reaching a high of 93. Tonight's expected low: 37. Chance of snow on Friday/Saturday.

--Sioux Falls, SD, reached into the upper 70s today. Tomorrow night's predicted low: 29.

cold

From the Hydrometeorological Center:

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

Youza...




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just as a quick reminder...we are in the last two months of hurricane season. BUT, that does not mean the United States, or any other location in the Caribbean Sea, is safe. In fact...they are anything but.

CSU is calling for one hurricane in the West Caribbean at some point over the next two months. There is plenty of fuel in the area for something to become a monster if upper-air conditions permit. They may or they may not, we shall see.



Normally, I wouldn't go as far to say we could see a monster in the Caribbean but I disagree this year. The TCHP levels are insane in the Caribbean and with fronts coming down we could see some serious development in the SW Caribbean this year. It's not over yet folks, we have one more show I think. Think Ida 2009.
Quoting Doppler22:
Winter is starting a little early in some places... I see that Nebraska and South Dakota might get in on some snow.... IS this earlier then usual for them?


It's a bit on the early side, but not unprecedented:

Earliest 5 Dates of first snowfall for Lincoln, Nebraska:
1) Sep 29, 1985
2) Oct 9, 1970
3) Oct 10, 2009
4) Oct 10, 1987
5) Oct 18, 1976

From: Date of the First Measurable Snowfall in Lincoln, Each Autumn 1948 to 2011 Ranked

And for North Dakota, the USGS says this:

"The first significant snowfall of the season usually occurs during the middle or latter part of November. However, measurable amounts of snow (0.1 inch or more) may fall in September about once in every 10 years in the west and north, but only rarely in the southeast."

Source
I thought the dusting of snow we received a couple weeks ago was an anomaly, I guess it wasn't.

A new snow storm is expected to drop 10 to 12+ inches of snow, welcome to northern minnesota.

img src=" Winter Storm Warning Statement as of 3:30 PM CDT on October 03, 2012
... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 1 am Thursday to 10 am CDT
Friday...

The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow and blowing snow... which is in effect
from 1 am Thursday to 10 am CDT Friday. The Winter Storm Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Timing... rain is expected to change to snow on Thursday
morning... and continue into Friday morning. The snow may be
heavy at times.

* Winds... north winds will increase on Thursday and become 20 to
30 mph with higher gusts... continuing into early Friday morning.

* Visibilities... may be near zero within falling and blowing
snow.

* Snow accumulations... 10 to 12 inches are possible.

* Wind chill values... in the mid to upper teens.

* Other impacts... heavy snow on tree branches and power lines may
cause them to break.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight... food... and
water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.
">

Btw The Weather Channel can name their first storm I guess. What a joke they are.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Normally, I wouldn't go as far to say we could see a monster in the Caribbean but I disagree this year. The TCHP levels are insane in the Caribbean and with fronts coming down we could see some serious development in the SW Caribbean this year. It's not over yet folks, we have one more show I think. Think Ida 2009.
Wilma comes to mind
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Normally, I wouldn't go as far to say we could see a monster in the Caribbean but I disagree this year. The TCHP levels are insane in the Caribbean and with fronts coming down we could see some serious development in the SW Caribbean this year. It's not over yet folks, we have one more show I think. Think Ida 2009.
i hope it will be in the situation ida was in too. Nor'easter ;)
Tropical Storm Nadine:



Tropical Depression Fifteen:

It'd be more fun to name 'em after cartoon characters.

I'd start with the 7 dwarves from Snowhite and when those were done, move on to Looneytunes characters.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It'd be more fun to name 'em after cartoon characters.

I'd start with the 7 dwarves from Snowhite and when those were done, move on to Looneytunes characters.
Without cheating Doug name all seven......I dare ya
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It'd be more fun toname 'em after cartoon characters.

I'd start with the 7 dwarves from Snowwhite and when those were done, move on to Looneytunes characters.


I think starting with Loony Tunes would seem much more appropriate. LOL
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I read this idiotic, or was it ...book called "Who Moved My Cheese" by Spencer Johnson a few years ago...Not that I liked the book, but I guess it was truthful


I enjoyed the book. That is why I am never fully opposed to change. Ever since I read Emerson, I always remember the line. "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."

Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Storm Nadine:



Tropical Depression Fifteen:

Maybe if it can organize a little more it would be name Oscar it better do it fast though.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It'd be more fun to name 'em after cartoon characters.

I'd start with the 7 dwarves from Snowhite and when those were done, move on to Looneytunes characters.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 032033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
WINTER STORM BUGGS BUNNY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NOAA AL152012
500 PM AST WED DEC 1 2012

...WINTER STORM BUGGS BUNNY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...WHO KNOWS

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NONE!!!

Quoting Grothar:


I enjoyed the book. That is why I am never fully opposed to change. Ever since I read Emerson, I always remember the line. "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."

Gro..........When I read the "Cheese" book maybe 15 years ago I was working for this controlling company... At the time everyone was pissed and was forced to read it... Now I think it really made sense
The seven dwarfs....Mama Smurf, Pappa Smurf...Hmmmm , 5 more
Quoting Grothar:


I enjoyed the book. That is why I am never fully opposed to change. Ever since I read Emerson, I always remember the line. "A foolish consistency is the hobgolin of little minds."



'Who moved my Cheese' was picked up by my Parish for the schools and we had multiple workshops about it. Last year we lent our books to another school for new teachers. We still joke with each other about moving someone's cheese.

We had a beautiful day for our Rodeo day for the kids, complete with horses and roping. One of the teachers is an avid competitor.
174. flsky
Just got slammed here in Ponce Inlet, FL. Very hard rain, lots of thunder and lightning. Fun stuff!
Neo, I have a couple questions maybe you can answer.

156. Neapolitan 9:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
I wouldn't count on that. TWC is the nation's largest and best-known non-governmental weather provider, and it's available in tens of millions of households. So it wouldn't surprise me at all were some broadcast and internet outlets unaffiliated with TWC to pick up the names. Say, after a number of their own viewers start asking, "Hey, what do you guys at Intellicast think will happen with WS Plato?"

Isn't Intellicast part of WSI, therefore already part of TWCC?

156. Neapolitan 9:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2012
That's a nasty blast of cold moving southward through the Northern Plains.

Is it a Low causing the snow up in MT, WY and ND or a cold High pressure area?

Click-click image for larger map
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
The seven dwarfs....Mama Smurf, Pappa Smurf...Hmmmm , 5 more
noooooo you're thinking of "The Smurfs"
Quoting aislinnpaps:


'Who moved my Cheese' was picked up by my Parish for the schools and we had multiple workshops about it. Last year we lent our books to another school for new teachers. We still joke with each other about moving someone's cheese.

We had a beautiful day for our Rodeo day for the kids, complete with horses and roping. One of the teachers is an avid competitor.
The company I worked for "made" us put the sponge rubber "toy" that looked like a wedge of cheese on our desk... After it started to have a rancid odor we were "allowed" to dispose of it.
Sleepy, Dopey, Doc, Sneezy

that was all I could think of on the spur of the moment.



EDIT: My wife thought of 2 more..Happy and Grumpy.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sleepy, Dopey, Doc, Sneezy

that was all I could think of on the spur of the moment.
and Kirstie and Bristol.
Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe if it can organize a little more it would be name Oscar it better do it fast though.


Agreed. It has until today or tomorrow to organize and become Oscar. Some dry air and wind shear are both disrupting the organization of the cyclone.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Gro..........When I read the "Cheese" book maybe 15 years ago I was working for this controlling company... At the time everyone was pissed and was forced to read it... Now I think it really made sense


Oh, it probably did. I don't like all motivational books, but this one did characterize the resistance to change. It is similar to a work project developed in the US but used widely in Japan. It is called the "Quality Circle" where new ideas are discussed in the workplace.

It was similar to when this site was changed last year. Everyone was complaining. Now, I don't think anybody even remembers what the old one looked like unless they go back to wunderground classic.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I wouldn't count on that. TWC is the nation's largest and best-known non-governmental weather provider, and it's available in tens of millions of households. So it wouldn't surprise me at all were some broadcast and internet outlets unaffiliated with TWC to pick up the names. Say, after a number of their own viewers start asking, "Hey, what do you guys at Intellicast think will happen with WS Plato?"

At any rate, here's what the NWS has to say about the TWC naming plan:

"The National Weather Service has no opinion about private weather enterprise products and services. A winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins. While the National Weather Service does not name winter storms, we do rate major winter storms after the fact."

And that seems about as non-committal as possible, no?


Competition (especially the media) will refrain from using any of The Weather Channels naming of storms with the exception of Comcast and GE related media outlets. If someone say from FOX decides to show Winter Storm Plato, then they would have to credit TWC and that is never good business. Its like McDonalds serving a Whopper.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sleepy, Dopey, Doc, Sneezy

that was all I could think of on the spur of the moment.



EDIT: My wife thought of 2 more..Happy and Grumpy.



I bet "Grumpy" came easy to her.
Quoting Chucktown:


Competition (especially the media) will refrain from using any of The Weather Channels naming of storms with the exception of Comcast and GE related media outlets. If someone say from FOX decides to show Winter Storm Plato, then they would have to credit TWC and that is never good business. Its like McDonalds serving a Whopper.
"With Cheese"?
Quoting Chucktown:


Competition (especially the media) will refrain from using any of The Weather Channels naming of storms with the exception of Comcast and GE related media outlets. If someone say from FOX decides to show Winter Storm Plato, then they would have to credit TWC and that is never good business. Its like McDonalds serving a Whopper.

I would hope they would put public safety above competition.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sleepy, Dopey, Doc, Sneezy

that was all I could think of on the spur of the moment.



EDIT: My wife thought of 2 more..Happy and Grumpy.
Is the last one "Festus"?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would hope they would put public safety above competition.
oh wait only TWC is namming them?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it likely will be at 5am.



:( yes, been preparing myself all day! LOL if not for her just think how boring the Atlantic woulda been these last weeks! Was hoping for serious record, but aint too shabby still
..and the Oscar goe's to..
Quoting Grothar:



I bet "Grumpy" came easy to her.



You're funny like a toothache.


snort snort chuckle chuckle....
Quoting Grothar:



I bet "Grumpy" came easy to her.


LOL :)))
.."your so Bain, you probably think this entries about you"...
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
oh wait only TWC is namming them?

Yes, only TWC.
sniff sniff loosin nadines like losing a beloved pet
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would hope they would put public safety above competition.


Well then shouldn't the Weather Service promote that, its not like the media isn't warning you about a winter storm. If a private forecasting service wants to drive you to their product, its not the responsibility of other media to follow suit. What's next, TWC starts issuing warnings when they don't agree with the NWS? This is a dangerous line TWC is crossing with this winter storm naming. Just my 2 cents.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



You're funny like a toothache.


snort snort chuckle chuckle....


Hey, I had to get one good shot in. I'm not Bashful.
Not only did I move your cheese...

but I also ATE it!

: )
Quoting Patrap:
..and the Oscar goe's to..

And the Oscar goes to Hermine for:
Best interpretation of a tropical cyclone!

Quoting RitaEvac:




News media fails with truth, sugar coat everything.

Actually... Were doing just fine here in Southeast-Central Texas, Notice how the map says September 25th.
September 29-30 we go some very nice rains from our first Fall-like cold front... The drought monitor should shift some, when the release the latest map, tomorrow.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I had to get one good shot in. I'm not Bashful.


I resisted the impulse to Google the dwarves. I figured it'd pop up somehow.
Stretched out trough of low pressure analyzed roughly along 35 N may serve as a catalyst for development in a couple days as shown by the GFS model.



Initialized:



The system circles back around a ridge of high pressure:

How about DC or MARVEL Comics villians?


Winter Storm "Mr. Freeze" for example.
A lot of shear around 96L

Quoting Grothar:


Oh, it probably did. I don't like all motivational books, but this one did characterize the resistance to change. It is similar to a work project developed in the US but used widely in Japan. It is called the "Quality Circle" where new ideas are discussed in the workplace.

It was similar to when this site was changed last year. Everyone was complaining. Now, I don't think anybody even remembers what the old one looked like unless they go back to wunderground classic.
People still look at classic, though maybe blog mostly at nuwu. I look at it for a couple reasons. Without paging across, can't see the mailbox light in nuwu on my preferred screen resolution. Easier to click a bookmark to classic wu. Also, maybe unimportant to those who do not venture into our friendly little blog community, the classic bloglist view shows when a member blog was last updated and time of last comment instead of (nuwu) just latest activity.

Change can be good. I don't know why people are talking about "change" re: storm naming. It's an experiment. May or may not be a good idea. That's the sneaky part. Gotta live with the consequences of it before you know if it's a pos or neg decision.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know it's hard, but it is time we begin to say good bye to Nadine. It has been convection-less for seven hours, and if it isn't declared post-tropical at 11pm EDT, it will be at 5am.


*taps plays in the background*
This is a tribute to Nadine...
To Nadine, The most annoying system to run amuck in the Atlantic... Nadine, although she may stand ugly now...I dont know where I'm going with this...She was a never a pretty girl...... Furthmore......

R.I.P. Nadine

September 11, 2012 - October 3, 2012


She was so young!!! Why!?! why must she die so young?!


..... This has been a tribute to Never-Ending Nadine...

See you in 2018, Nadine.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

*taps plays in the background*
This is a tribute to Nadine...
To Nadine, The most annoying system to run amuck in the Atlantic... Nadine, although she may stand ugly now...I dont know where I'm going with this...She was a never a pretty girl...... Furthmore......

R.I.P. Nadine

September 11, 2012 - October 3, 2012

She was so young!!! Why!?! why must she die so young?!


..... This has been a tribute to Never-Ending Nadine...

See you in 2018, Nadine.

Oh, one last thing...

Nadine wrote her Will yesterday, after the NHC broke the news to her that she had only 24 hours to live...
She left all of her posessions to Grothar.

You'll be receiving a package in the mail in 2 weeks, gro.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
People still look at classic, though maybe blog mostly at nuwu. I look at it for a couple reasons. Without paging across, can't see the mailbox light in nuwu on my preferred screen resolution. Easier to click a bookmark to classic wu. Also, maybe unimportant to those who do not venture into our friendly little blog community, the classic bloglist view shows when a member blog was last updated and time of last comment instead of (nuwu) just latest activity.

Change can be good. I don't know why people are talking about "change" re: storm naming. It's an experiment. May or may not be a good idea. That's the sneaky part. Gotta live with the consequences of it before you know if it's a pos or neg decision.


My one complaint was the fonts were too light. I still miss mail sometimes. The classic view was easier to read.
Quoting Grothar:
A lot of shear around 96L


Gro, there are no active invests in the Atlantic basin right now.
There was a shy dwarf. Was his name "Bashful?"

Anyway, the biggest potential neg so far about TWC's plan to name winter storms is this SEEMS unilateral on TWC's part. Their own trip. Interesting wordpress article from Nate Johnson on that subject. Interesting comments as well...
A storm about naming storms
Quoting Neapolitan:
I wouldn't count on that. TWC is the nation's largest and best-known non-governmental weather provider, and it's available in tens of millions of households. So it wouldn't surprise me at all were some broadcast and internet outlets unaffiliated with TWC to pick up the names. Say, after a number of their own viewers start asking, "Hey, what do you guys at Intellicast think will happen with WS Plato?"

At any rate, here's what the NWS has to say about the TWC naming plan:

"The National Weather Service has no opinion about private weather enterprise products and services. A winter storm's impact can vary from one location to another, and storms can weaken and redevelop, making it difficult to define where one ends and another begins. While the National Weather Service does not name winter storms, we do rate major winter storms after the fact."

And that seems about as non-committal as possible, no?


Its available in the cable package..doesnt mean people watch it..
NAO's going the wrong way...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gro, there are no active invests in the Atlantic basin right now.


Just made a bet you would be the first to correct that entry. Thanks. I just made $20.
Quoting Grothar:


Just made a bet you would be the first to correct that entry. Thanks. I just made $20.

Really? That's funny. I just made a $100 bet that you would say you made a bet and I won.
Long range 18z GFS develops in the Caribbean. Let's see as time goes by if the model continues to show it and if other models join.

Quoting Grothar:


My one complaint was the fonts were too light. I still miss mail sometimes. The classic view was easier to read.
Sometimes others actually listen. After the complaining, wunderground agreed to leave the classic site up and accessible. I'm glad they did.

One controls his/her own cheese.
:)
Quoting ncstorm:


Its available in the cable package..doesnt mean people watch it..
Well, I did use the word "available". But even so, during times of severe weather, TWC's ratings have been known to be higher than those of any other cable network (news, entertainment, sports, etc.). There have been times it's had a larger audience than Fox, or CNN, MSNBC, and HLN combined. That's a lot of eyeballs that will be tuning in during this winter's WS Brutus and wondering why those lesser news outlets with smaller audiences are just calling it "that big Northeast snowstorm". ;-)
Quoting sunlinepr:


The question to anwser is:

Is trustable weather forecasting a right or a priviledge?

RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.
Stuck with da classic.

As I'm a retro freak ya knows.


2 Issac pup's have found wunderful Homes.

3 to go.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, I did use the word "available". But even so, during times of severe weather, TWC's ratings have been known to be higher than those of any other cable network (news, entertainment, sports, etc.). There have been times it's had a larger audience than Fox, or CNN, MSNBC, and HLN combined. That's a lot of eyeballs that will be tuning in during this winter's WS Brutus and wondering why those lesser news outlets with smaller audiences are just calling it "that big Northeast snowstorm". ;-)


yeah, you right..severe weather and hurricanes threatening areas does bring in more viewers but snowstorms?? nah people hardly ever tune in to see a blizzard hitting NYC who dont live in NYC..IMO winter weather doesnt hold the same merit as a a tornado or a hurricane to a regular moe, larry and curly ..however it will be hilarious to see AL and Cantore in New Orleans again but this time reporting during an ice storm trying to do push ups because if TWC dont bring nothing else, it will bring the hype..
223. wxmod
Jet smog over So Calif, So Nevada, Arizona and Eastern New Mexico today. Late afternoon MODIS. The GOES image I posted this morning shows it better. There's a lot of talk right to the top of the food chain now about geoengineering the planet's atmosphere because of the melted arctic sea. Your right to natural air and water are about to be removed forever, without your discussion. One day soon, you will wake up to white sky in every direction. No more blue sky. No more starry nights. Period. And soon after, you won't be able to breath very well and it won't rain anymore, except on people who pay for it. Once the contracts are signed, there is no turning back. People don't believe this is true, so they have been docile. It IS true. You better start screamin!

Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.

Have you ever watched them during Severe Weather coverage?
O Lordy..

LoL
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.


what? and missing out on your local on the 8's..shame on you Wash..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Have you ever watched them during Severe Weather coverage?
Yes.They are only useful for that(Well IMO they've not been that good on hurricane coverage as of late).But the server weather season varies from year to year.It can but super active(like 2003,2004 and 2011) or really quite like this years server weather season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Really? That's funny. I just made a $100 bet that you would say you made a bet and I won.


LOL. You're growing up, TA. I can't tease you like I used to.
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Sometimes others actually listen. After the complaining, wunderground agreed to leave the classic site up and accessible. I'm glad they did.

One controls his/her own cheese.
:)


Now that's a classic.
I got my driving permit, clear the roads. I see TD15 is barely forecasted to become Oscar and Nadine continues to weaken.
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a lot of eyeballs that will be tuning in during this winter's WS Brutus and wondering why those lesser news outlets with smaller audiences are just calling it "that big Northeast snowstorm". ;-)
This opinion I find hard to believe as one that you really believe. Your backing of a private(or non-govermental, as you said) company in this matter just doesn't ring true. Makes me question whether you'd extend the same "let's let boys be boys" attitude if it was Accuweather or FOX instead of TWC. There's a scent of disambiguation in the air. I personally think that there's less than a 1% chance that the public is gonna' take to these names and I just can't foresee folks thinking the other channels are "lesser" because they're not calling the snow/ice event Plato, Brutus, Cletus, Goofy. I guess time will tell how the public reacts to the names when they happen, though I'd say it's a 30% probability that TWC ditches the idea before it starts and we'll never know.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.

Well right now I should be typing an English essay but I am instead on WU.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't watch TWC.Waste of time point blank period.I told my cable provider to take it off about a month ago.Haven't regretted the decision since.

I watch it for severe weather, hurricanes, and winter weather. I'm not home during the day time anyway so I don't see the other programs they usually show or just watch something else. TWC is still useful for stuff and getting rid of it idk. Of course even if I wanted to I can't control my parents.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
This opinion I find hard to believe as one that you really believe. Your backing of a private(or non-govermental, as you said) company in this matter just doesn't ring true. Makes me question whether you'd extend the same "let's let boys be boys" attitude if it was Accuweather instead of TWC. There's a scent of disambiguation in the air. I personally think that there's less than a 1% chance that the public is gonna' take to these names and I just can't foresee folks thinking the other channels are "lesser" because they're not calling the snow/ice event Plato, Brutus, Cletus, Goofy. I guess time will tell how the public reacts to the names when they happen, though I'd say it's a 30% probability that TWC ditches the idea before it starts and we'll never know.
I can't take any of those names serious enough.They sound like characters in a Hollywood movie.They're not really catchy either.Some of the names IMO are super ugly and hard to pronounce that I'll probably refer to them by a numerical system(storm 1 storm 2)lol.
Here is some sample TWC coverage during the April 14 tornado outbreak from earlier this year.

When a winter storm is threatening I have never tuned in TWC.I've always watched my local news station(s) for coverage and accurate information.
This is mind boggling up to 2 feet of snow in Minnesota. It is a little Early for this.

Don't believe me check the NWS forecast for Williams Mn.

Wow

Et tu, Brute?
Quoting nymore:
This is mind boggling up to 2 feet of snow in Minnesota. It is a little Early for this.

Don't believe me check the forecast for Williams Mn.

Wow


Yeah it is early for that, I had to check the forecast just to be sure and yup.
Who's getting two feet of snow that I should be receiving as of now?.Montana? no fair!.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.


You better get to work then...

I wonder what the TWC will name this winter storm?

I bet they don't as it does not effect enough people. which will prove the point it is not about the storm but about how many people they can market the storm to, it is all about money
Cold front descending across the Front Range:




BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 85A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...NADINE EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS
TO THE AZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 31.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE...AND NADINE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SHIPS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
OF NADINE HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES
BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY....PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AZORES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting MrMixon:
Cold front descending across the Front Range:



That is a dry front.
Quoting nymore:
I wonder what the TWC will name this winter storm?

I bet they don't as it does not effect enough people. which will prove the point it is not about the storm but about how many people they can market the storm to, it is all about money


At least we're going to have some entertainment this winter to see how it will work out. And this blog will be more busy for sure. Maybe this is the reason TWC did it, lol?




Anybody else going to place a bet tonight...




on the big DEBATE....



Between




Grothar and TA13?


: )
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




Anybody else going to place a bet tonight...




on the big DEBATE....



Between




Grothar and TA13?


: )


What other big debate is there?









LOL...
TD 15:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You know what facebook and Weather Underground share in common?

When you're trying to study for a Geometry, English II, and US History test, they are VERY easily distracting.
Same with Twitter.
255. wxmod
Arizona skies. MODIS today.

WOW that one big one!!!
Quoting wxchaser97:
I got my driving permit, clear the roads. I see TD15 is barely forecasted to become Oscar and Nadine continues to weaken.
As soon as Nadine passes, Oscar will be born...seems pretty close now for the "waters" to break....
Winter Storm Warning are up now

Link
No Oscar yet on 00z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 191N, 423W, 30, 1007, TD
.."and the Oscar goes to"
18z GFS 384 hrs. SW Caribbean, looks to form from a weak tropical wave that manages to make it across the Caribbean and maybe a little upward motion in the MJO.

Quoting Grothar:


Here is a link to an interesting Paleotempestology reconstruction of the the pre-HURDAT era. I will look in my archives for the other maps.

Link


Thanks, very interesting stuff... I tried everything I could think of to save that pdf, couldn't figure it out, had to bookmark it.

I culled the entire hurricane file here (1851-present)at WU for storms that hit, or affected Florida. Track maps and all the coordinates, some 535 pages worth so I could have reference available for my pioneer history stuff when I could not be online. I also have nearly 2 GB of tracks, forecasts, radar loops and sat loops. I am steadily working on all the slosh models, I'll have those soon. I am a hurricane hoarder. :)

Thanks again Gro!

Say your goodbyes folks... she's done.

04/0000 UTC 36.0N 30.6W TOO WEAK NADINE -- Atlantic

0z ATCF kept her a TS, so I'd say she'll be declared post tropical at 5AM.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Say your goodbyes folks... she's done.

04/0000 UTC 36.0N 30.6W TOO WEAK NADINE -- Atlantic

0z ATCF kept her a TS, so I'd say she'll be declared post tropical at 5AM.

=(....
She will be missed, I think she was already done a little while ago.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Say your goodbyes folks... she's done.

04/0000 UTC 36.0N 30.6W TOO WEAK NADINE -- Atlantic

0z ATCF kept her a TS, so I'd say she'll be declared post tropical at 5AM.


Goodbye Nadine. It's been nice knowing you.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
No Oscar yet on 00z Best Track.

AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 191N, 423W, 30, 1007, TD
Might become Oscar at the 5am advisory or 11 am advisory if not there would not be Oscar from td 15.
Adios Nadine, you had a lengthy life, we shall meet again in 2018.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW that one big one!!!

FANTASY LAND!!!!! looks nice tho...
Quoting nymore:
This is mind boggling up to 2 feet of snow in Minnesota. It is a little Early for this.

Don't believe me check the NWS forecast for Williams Mn.

Wow



iam expecting a strong winter
as the coldest air sets itself west of james bay
west to the foot hills across N.W.T. southward across central northern states
into the grt lakes se ward northern mid atlantic regions then up and out
the big low sets up across nw quebec eastern shores of james bay ne to greenland
Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings Winter storm warning for
Sprague - Northwest Angle Provincial Forest continued

Powerful early season winter storm to affect Southeast Manitoba on Thursday.

This is a warning that dangerous winter weather conditions are imminent or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions...Listen for updated statements.

A developing storm system in the Dakotas is forecast to spread into Southern Manitoba tonight, bringing significant amounts of rain to Southeast Manitoba. Some areas could see 20-30 mm or so of rain by Thursday morning. As the night progresses, gusty northerly winds will usher in colder air from the north. With temperatures dropping to the low single digits, the rain will become mixed with snow as the morning approaches. As of early this evening up to 10 cm of snow has been reported in parts of North Dakota with this system, although the majority of the precipitation is still falling as rain.

The storm will intensify significantly throughout the day on Thursday. The heaviest band of precipitation is expected to fall mainly as snow through Southeast Manitoba, where snowfall amounts of anywhere from 10 to 30 cm are expected by the end of the day. Northerly winds gusting to 70 km/h combined with heavy snow will produce whiteout conditions at times. Travel in this area will become increasingly difficult as the day progresses.

The remainder of Southern Manitoba will see a rain/snow mix throughout the day as the temperature hovers in the low single digits. Some areas may see a couple of cm of so of snow accumulation while in others the precipitation will fall mainly as rain. Higher snowfall amounts are also likely along the higher terrain of Western Manitoba.

The heaviest snow will taper off Thursday evening, but a few lingering flurries will likely persist into Friday.

This winter storm will produce poor travelling conditions.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


TD15 fattening up for sure!
Quoting Slamguitar:


TD15 fattening up for sure!
too bad its all to the right of the coc
Hurricane Nadine could be the second long-lived hurricane in the history
I think the Hurricane Nadine could be the second long-lived hurricane in history
Quoting indianrivguy:


Thanks, very interesting stuff... I tried everything I could think of to save that pdf, couldn't figure it out, had to bookmark it.

I culled the entire hurricane file here (1851-present)at WU for storms that hit, or affected Florida. Track maps and all the coordinates, some 535 pages worth so I could have reference available for my pioneer history stuff when I could not be online. I also have nearly 2 GB of tracks, forecasts, radar loops and sat loops. I am steadily working on all the slosh models, I'll have those soon. I am a hurricane hoarder. :)

Thanks again Gro!



Here something else for you.


After it is loaded, click on the graph on the bottom on any year you want. On the right, move the bar to any state you want.

Link
I noted on the navy site it has are 15th name storm of the season.




Hello there...
AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS



Quoting Civicane49:
TD 15:




TD 15 is now OSCAR
ATCF says TD15 has became Oscar, the curse may be over. The Oscar will be going to the Azores.
AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M,
289. SLU
35kts wind barbs and the most broad COC in recorded history. Hi there OSCAR!

Quoting Tazmanian:



TD 15 is now OSCAR

Well we have seen examples that ATCF and the NHC go different routes, most likely we have Oscar.
04/0000 UTC 18.7N 42.0W T2.0/2.0 15L -- Atlantic
292. SLU
15-8-1 on October 3rd and they say it's a bust of a season ....
2012 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
96L.INVEST
15L.OSCAR
14L.NADINE
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well we have seen examples that ATCF and the NHC go different routes, most likely we have Oscar.



i wounder if this will be are last name storm
Quoting ces15hurricanes:
I think the Hurricane Nadine could be the second long-lived hurricane in history
Quoting ces15hurricanes:
Hurricane Nadine could be the second long-lived hurricane in the history

You were so excited that you said it twice. LOL
296. SLU
Congrats .. the first "OSCAR" in recorded history goes to ....... TD #15!

Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder if this will be are last name storm

I think we could still see another storm.

Also congrats to Miguel Cabrera on winning the triple crown!
Quoting wxchaser97:
ATCF says TD15 has became Oscar, the curse may be over. The Oscar will be going to the Azores.
AL, 15, 2012100400, , BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M,
Finally yeah.
Quoting Tazmanian:



i wounder if this will be are last name storm


I think we may see at least one more after this storm.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I think we could still see another storm.

Also congrats to Miguel Cabrera on winning the triple crown!
I say 2 Patty and Rafael, if we are lucky 3 with Sandy.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well we have seen examples that ATCF and the NHC go different routes, most likely we have Oscar.

Yes, but there is definitive evidence to upgrade the storm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, but there is definitive evidence to upgrade the storm.

I know and we will see an upgrade but ATCF is not 100% official every time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, but there is definitive evidence to upgrade the storm.


ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

Just cause the ATFC computer says it's Oscar, doesn't mean the NHC will upgrade it. I wouldn't be surprised if they kept it TD15 or upgraded it to TS Oscar.

Quoting AussieStorm:


ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR
SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT
OCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

Just cause the ATFC computer says it's Oscar, doesn't mean the NHC will upgrade it. I wouldn't be surprised if they kept it TD15 or upgraded it to TS Oscar.

There was an ASCAT pass that revealed 35 knot winds. It is getting upgraded.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There was an ASCAT pass that revealed 35 knot winds. It is getting upgraded.

Yup there are multiple 35kt wind barbs, we will see Oscar.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There was an ASCAT pass that revealed 35 knot winds. It is getting upgraded.

Which one is TD15??



The curse...is broken!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
We now have Oscar. The curse is now broken!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Quoting AussieStorm:

Which one is TD15??




The first one with the broad circulation and the one posted in comment 306.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup there are multiple 35kt wind barbs, we will see Oscar.

That looks like a sub-tropical storm as the strongest wind is away from the coc. and that a very broad coc also.
The curse is no more, we have an Oscar.
...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 3
Location: 19.3°N 42.2°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Tropical Storm OSCAR

...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 3
Location: 19.3°N 42.2°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

15-8-1
000
WTNT24 KNHC 040254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 86
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
0300 UTC THU OCT 04 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 30.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 30.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 31.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 40.2N 28.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 49.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 30.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting wxchaser97:

The first one with the broad circulation and the one posted in comment 306.

so what's this one? looks much better than Oscar.

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 86
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

NADINE IS A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EXTREMELY LARGE OCCLUDED
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NADINE IS NOT A
CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LARGE AND WELL-PRONOUNCED BAND OF SHALLOW
TO MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...DESPITE
THE RATHER DEGRADED AND POOR APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BEING
MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY CI-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 36-KT WIND REPORT
FROM SHIP BATFR18 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AT 0200 UTC.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/21 KT. NADINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN 48
TO 72 HOURS...THEN POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL NADINE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW IN
WHICH IT IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA.

THE 36-KT SHIP REPORT AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FROM NOW THROUGH LANDFALL
IN THE AZORES. NADINE COULD MERGE WITH EITHER A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OR CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH A WARM
FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT BY 24
HOURS...CLEAR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY. REGARDLESS OF THE
STATUS OF NADINE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED
ON SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS FROM SHIPS WITH CALL
SIGNS BATFR13...BATFR15...AND BATFR18...WHICH HAVE BEEN NAVIGATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION OF NADINE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 37.4N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 40.2N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0000Z 44.5N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/1200Z 47.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0000Z 49.0N 27.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
The curse has been broken all the lists of the Atlantic has reach the O letter now.
Some folks still haven't learned "the secret of the purple numbers..."
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS MORPHED INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AT
0000 UTC...DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND A 0030 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED SEVERAL
UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT PASS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WITH A CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KT.
OSCAR IS ON THE CUSP OF ENTERING AN EVEN HIGHER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT OSCAR OPENING
UP INTO A TROUGH AND THEN LOSING ITS IDENTITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.

THE FORWARD SPEED OF OSCAR HAS SLOWED SOME IN RECENT HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/10. STEERED BY THE FLOW IN
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...OSCAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS
IT DECELERATES FURTHER. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
EMBEDDED IN A STRONG AND DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SHARP RECURVATURE AND A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRACK SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
RIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.3N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.5N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 22.0N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 23.8N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
gee everyone must be so excited to see another fish storm, the advisory was posted 5 times. LOL
you people are Slow
Tropical Storm Oscar:

Quoting allancalderini:
The curse has been broken all the lists of the Atlantic has reach the O letter now.
And we are only on Oct. 3rd.
Must say this season is healthy! Every single depression has successfully turned into a storm or higher and gotten a name! well done!
Quoting AussieStorm:

so what's this one? looks much better than Oscar.


This is still Nadine and she is still a tropical storm but not for long.
328. SLU
Quoting AussieStorm:

so what's this one? looks much better than Oscar.



Nadine
LOL.... they named it even though as they say....
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Which one is TD15??





Oscar is in the top image. Nadine is in the bottom image.
Quoting AussieStorm:
LOL.... they named it even though as they say....
HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.

The only difference between a tropical depression and a tropical storm is whether or not it has 35-knot winds.
Tropical Storm Nadine:

Yay!!!!! Finally. About time that this list of names joins the rest of the naming lists to make it to the O storm :)
Quoting wxchaser97:
The curse is no more, we have an Oscar.
...FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 3
Location: 19.3°N 42.2°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Welcome Oscar the 15 tropical storm of the season in a rather active 2012, hurricane season. But with a remarkably quite September...
Quoting lobdelse81:
Yay!!!!! Finally. About time that this list of names joins the rest of the naming lists to make it to the O storm :)


Don't party just yet. It still has the recognition of being the only one that hasn't reached the letter 'P'. The 2010 one (with Igor) didn't reach it until that year though, so you never know.
Quoting AussieStorm:
gee everyone must be so excited to see another fish storm, the advisory was posted 5 times. LOL
Good reason to be excited, it reached the O, storm and is not a threat to anyone... in the mean time I'm still looking for a little action well SW of Cape Verde, Island,... who knows...?
Not. Sure. If I will write. About. Nadine...

Seriously, does this look like a tropical cyclone to you?

Quoting KoritheMan:
Not. Sure. If I will write. About. Nadine...

Seriously, does this look like a tropical cyclone to you?


Nadine is most likely non-tropical right now and TS Oscar is not the best looking TS ever either.
Screw it. Not gonna waste time. I'll just jump straight to Oscar. Post-season analysis will likely declare Nadine as post-tropical by this point anyway.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Not. Sure. If I will write. About. Nadine...

Seriously, does this look like a tropical cyclone to you?



Nadine doesn't look like a tropical cyclone to me. I'm sure it will become a post-tropical cyclone by tomorrow.
So far, I've noticed that both the 2012 eastern Pacific and Atlantic seasons have all tropical depressions became tropical storms. Off course, some of them became hurricanes.
I just made a very good play on words with Nadine (on my blog):

"Nadine fought the good fight, finished the race, and kept the faith."

:D
Quoting KoritheMan:
Screw it. Not gonna waste time. I'll just jump straight to Oscar. Post-season analysis will likely declare Nadine as post-tropical by this point anyway.

I highly doubt Nadine is tropical and we both want to be finished with her anyway.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I highly doubt Nadine is tropical and we both want to be finished with her anyway.


If I were doing my TCR on her right now, I'd probably declare her post-tropical.
Let the Oscar jokes begin!
Come on Nadine, you can come back, you've done it before, you can do it again, come on Nadine
Quoting AussieStorm:
Come on Nadine, you can come back, you've done it before, you can do it again, come on Nadine


Shhh. After 17 separate forecast packages on her, this forecaster is worn out.

Don't you like me, Aussie? D:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Not. Sure. If I will write. About. Nadine...

Seriously, does this look like a tropical cyclone to you?





Yes
Quoting Tazmanian:




Yes


not sure if serious

:P
That looks like a bunch of blobs not a TC, but it still has some convection with it.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Shhh. After 17 separate forecast packages on her, this forecaster is worn out.

Don't you like me, Aussie? D:

The last ASCAT showed she was still holding together, just no convection, which could come back.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL STORM MARCE (GAEMI)
11:00 AM PhST October 4 2012
===============================

Tropical Storm "MARCE" has slightly weakened while over the west Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Marce (Gaemi) located at 15.0°N 118.3°E or 170 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Zambales
2. Bataan

Additional Information
=====================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents in these areas as well as in areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the western seaboard of Luzon due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm "MARCE".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
Quoting AussieStorm:

The last ASCAT showed she was still holding together, just no convection, which could come back.


At this point she's literally embedded in a baroclinic zone, though. That hasn't been the case for pretty much her entire existence.
Quoting KoritheMan:


At this point she's literally embedded in a baroclinic zone, though. That hasn't been the case for pretty much her entire existence.


She's producing decent convection still even if it's small and weak.
Quoting mo999999999:


She's producing a decent convection still even if it's small and weak.


My saliva has more moisture content than that convection does.
357. JLPR2
Well this is different. GFS shows this area of weak convection moving south all the way to the north of the islands and then closing off as it starts to move towards the west. Last run lost it in the Bahamas.



Quoting KoritheMan:


My saliva has more moisture content than that convection does.


Lol!
Quoting JLPR2:
Well this is different. GFS shows this area of weak convection moving south all the way to the north of the islands and then closing off as it starts to move towards the west. Last run lost it in the Bahamas.



This run also losses it in the Bahamas. Keep in mind the GFS has sniffed out almost every storm this year in the Atlantic Basin.

Rather large cold-core Upper Level Low that is currently absorbing Nadine and will be responsible for absorbing Oscar.

Kids evacuated from holiday camp as bushfire spreads on the NSW Central Coast



MORE than 120 children have been evacuated from a holiday camp and the Sydney to Newcastle train line remains closed as fire fighters battle a blaze at Wyee this afternoon.

The fire has already burned an area of 10ha, with about 80 fire fighters working to slow its spread.

Several children were treated by paramedics for smoke inhalation and were among 129 evacuated from a school holiday program at Bethshan Mission and Christian Camp on Forest Rd.

Trains are blocked in both directions between Morisset and Wyong with about a dozen Rural Fire Service crews and two water-bombing helicopters battling the fire which ignited about 2.30pm.

The fire closed Wyee Rd after it ripped through a nearby nursery and threatened the Wyee Metro service station.

"It was like a fire ball," service station attendant Sarah Cotter said.

"I felt it, it was across the road and I said to my manager 'you'd better come and look at this'.

"And then it just blew across the road."

The manager Kristy Bolger evacuated about a dozen people from the service station who made their way up to the Wyee RFS station.

The fast moving fire has crossed the railway line and is burning in an east, north-easterly direction away from the F3 freeway





Houses in Webber Rd, Forest Rd, Woodville Rd, Karagi St, Munmorah St, Collungra St, Badjewoi St, Jilliby St, Fire Station Lane, Wallarah St,Tuggerah St, Warrawolong St, Bungaree St and Pulbah St may come under threat, an RFS spokeswoman said.

"Under these conditions, fires are uncontrollable, unpredictable and fast-moving," she said.

"Embers may be be blown ahead of the main fire creating spot fires.

"These spot fires may threaten homes earlier than the predicted main fire front."

The blaze came to within metres of homes at Wallarah St where residents have been using garden hoses to water fences, trees and burned ground.

Crews are expected to remain fighting the fire well into the evening.
TS Gaemi



BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 87
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...NADINE STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...
...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING IN THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.4N 28.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR FORCE BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...OSCAR CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 42.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 87
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. THERE
IS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS
IN A BAND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE WEST. RECENT AMSU DATA
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A WARM CORE...SO IT WILL BE
KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY CAN BETTER REVEAL
THE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A
37-KT WIND REPORT AT LAJES AIR FORCE BASE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/20. NADINE IS BEING STEERED BY A
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.

NADINE SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR...MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING AND AFTER THE
TRANSITION. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO
THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48-72 HR...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 38.4N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 41.9N 26.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0600Z 45.2N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/1800Z 47.0N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0600Z 48.5N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO
15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35
KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE
LATEST SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS OSCAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING OSCAR OPENING INTO A
TROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OSCAR IS QUITE BROAD WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS
EVIDENT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8. THE LARGE
DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING OSCAR TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. BY FRIDAY...A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS OSCAR...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL
LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE
LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 20.0N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 21.1N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 22.7N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 24.9N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just finished my blog. Threw another reference in there for Oscar. Wondering if any of you will get it. :)


"Oscar is not well-organized."
Nope. Felix is the organized one. ;)
Quoting Grothar:


Here something else for you.


After it is loaded, click on the graph on the bottom on any year you want. On the right, move the bar to any state you want.

Link


Thanks Gro, this is pretty cool to mess with.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


"Oscar is not well-organized."
Nope. Felix is the organized one. ;)


That's odd...

mornin'
Quoting Grothar:


Here something else for you.


After it is loaded, click on the graph on the bottom on any year you want. On the right, move the bar to any state you want.

Link


Hey this is pretty nifty. I'll play with it some more after I've had some sleep. Time for Zzzzzz. :)
Good morning everyone, I'm surprised Nadine is still a tropical storm. Maybe, just maybe, she has enough life to beat Kyle.
Good morning and Good evening, everyone. A beautiful cool 59 degrees in my part of Louisiana.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone, I'm surprised Nadine is still a tropical storm. Maybe, just maybe, she has enough life to beat Kyle.

Or maybe just short of Kyle. Nadine is losing tropical characteristics, per NHC. ADT thinks it's still a tropical cyclone.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Or maybe just short of Kyle. Nadine is losing tropical characteristics, per NHC. ADT thinks it's still a tropical cyclone.

I don't see how Nadine is tropical right now but hey you never know she may surprise us again.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I don't see how Nadine is tropical right now but hey you never know she may surprise us again.

100 advisories we go! LOL
Maybe she will organize again to re-regenerate, although unlikely.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

100 advisories we go! LOL
Maybe she will organize again to re-regenerate, although unlikely.

If Nadine made it to 100 advisories I would probably go cry in a corner for a while. Today is most likely, and better be, her death day.
Quoting wxchaser97:

If Nadine made it to 100 advisories I would probably go cry in a corner for a while. Today is most likely, and better be, her death day.

It's only 3 and a half days ;)
Quoting Bobbyweather:

It's only 3 and a half days ;)

She should, hopefully, be dead from shear, cool waters, and absorbed by a larger low.
Quoting wxchaser97:

She should, hopefully, be dead from shear, cool waters, and absorbed by a larger low.

I guess so... I'll miss Nadine. It was fun to track. The fifth longest tropical/subtropical cyclone on record meeting its demise...
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I guess so... I'll miss Nadine. It was fun to track. The fifth longest tropical/subtropical cyclone on record meeting its demise...

I might miss her but I will rejoyce at not having to forecast Nadine.
Heavy snow falling in North Dakota.

Everyone have a great and safe Thursday!
On the 6Z GFS it is Snow Snow and Snow
...NADINE BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 27.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NNW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
Bye bye Nadine, you will probably be extra-tropical next time I check on you.
...NADINE BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...
8:00 AM AST Thu Oct 4
Location: 39.0N 27.2W
Moving: NE at 23 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
11am EDT will be its last.

"NADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS
MORNING."
That is a :) for me!! in S FL
This is what a cold front is in S FL lol

Thursday
Clear. High of 91F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 15 to 20 mph.

Thursday Night
Clear. Low of 73F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday
Clear. High of 90F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night
Clear. Low of 73F. Winds from the NE at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday
Clear. High of 90F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night
Clear. Low of 73F. Winds from the ENE at 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday
Clear with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 90F. Winds less than 5 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Sunday Night
Clear. Low of 73F. Winds less than 5 mph.
Morning Geeks.

Some typical sights in the Upper Great Plains in Early fall. SNOW!!

Good Morning folks...................
Quoting indianrivguy:


That's odd...

mornin'



Showing yer age!
For the record at 11AM EDT Nadine will tie Kyle for advisory number. Atleast that's what I think.

Actually no, kyle had 89 advisories.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Showing yer age!

Wud up Dougypooh
I wrote a new blog on Nadine, Oscar, and the rest of the season, here it is.
Quoting yqt1001:
For the record at 11AM EDT Nadine will tie Kyle for advisory number. Atleast that's what I think.

Actually no, kyle had 89 advisories.
Nadine will be done at 11am, so close to tying Kyle.
Kyle lives for 22.75 days...
Nadine so far 21.75...soon 22
That's some decently heavy snow for Eastern North Dakota, Folks.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
450 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MOST AREAS ALL SNOW TODAY.
THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AREA. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE OVER A FOOT. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG...LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

Did someone say "Global Warming"???

LOL
Goodbye everyone, I have to go to school. Here is my new blog for those who missed it, Link.
Oscar is just pathetic.It looks like the run of male hurricanes have finally come to a disappointing end with Oscar.At the least Oscar you can strengthen into a 65mph cyclone.Looks like that might not even happen.
That's some decently heavy snow for Eastern North Dakota, Folks.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
450 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MOST AREAS ALL SNOW TODAY.
THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AREA. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE OVER A FOOT. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG...LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.



Grand Forks Webcam

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning and Good evening, everyone. A beautiful cool 59 degrees in my part of Louisiana.


I'm spending a few months in your part of the world and it is indeed lovely this morning.

Two things I noticed right after the storm as a Louisiana outsider - critters called Nutria lying dead all over the place ?swamp rats? and incredible amounts of dead marsh grass spread over everything.
407. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oscar is just pathetic.It looks like the run of male hurricanes have finally come to a disappointing end with Oscar.At the least Oscar you can strengthen into a 65mph cyclone.Looks like that might not even happen.


Wash he sure looks pathetic wont be watching him long lol
Quoting VR46L:


Wash he sure looks pathetic wont be watching him long lol


Time for some fall foliage reports and some updates on our Winter Storm in the Upper Great Plains and Midwest.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
450 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MOST AREAS ALL SNOW TODAY.
THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AREA. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE OVER A FOOT. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG...LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

WINTER STORM ATHENA??? no?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oscar is just pathetic.It looks like the run of male hurricanes have finally come to a disappointing end with Oscar.At the least Oscar you can strengthen into a 65mph cyclone.Looks like that might not even happen.
I was just going to say that.lol
How much longer is Nadine gonna stick around, or do you guys already think it is gone?
412. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Time for some fall foliage reports and some updates on our Winter Storm in the Upper Great Plains and Midwest.


I am terrible I only follow the Atlantic systems but have TWC named it Athena yet??? Or is it too far west...
Quoting VR46L:


I am terrible I only follow the Atlantic systems but have TWC named it Athena yet??? Or is it too far west...

Who cares.
414. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Who cares.


Very good point ...LOL
Quoting VR46L:


Very good point ...LOL

;)
416. VR46L
Quoting 12george1:
How much longer is Nadine gonna stick around, or do you guys already think it is gone?


apparently she is somewhere near the azores but all I can see is a front lol

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
450 AM CDT THU OCT 4 2012

...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MOST AREAS ALL SNOW TODAY.
THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM
6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS AREA. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE OVER A FOOT. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG...LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.

WINTER STORM ATHENA??? no?


What *does* classify TWC to name these storms anyways? I would think similar to tropical cyclone naming, there needs to be a certain criteria. If not, this would certainly classify as WS Athena.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What *does* classify TWC to name these storms anyways? I would think similar to tropical cyclone naming, there needs to be a certain criteria. If not, this would certainly classify as WS Athena.

I say get rid of the idea altogether. The vast number of negative feedbacks on Facebook and Twitter about the WS naming should be enough to at least have them consider to retract.

Hope so, anyway. But I doubt it.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What *does* classify TWC to name these storms anyways? I would think similar to tropical cyclone naming, there needs to be a certain criteria. If not, this would certainly classify as WS Athena.


do they even have one...I have been looking for it...IDK
picked 4 more cyclones second week in sept now we need 3 more for my forecast to verify. its got some work to do
421. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do they even have one...I have been looking for it...IDK


They will name one when they need to up their ratings JMO... a marketing ploy ..LOL
Quoting VR46L:


They will name one when they need to up their ratings JMO... a marketing ploy ..LOL


if the NWS was the one doing it...they would probably have even an example of a winter storm named... but they don't even know..
423. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


if the NWS was the one doing it...they would probably have even an example of a winter storm named... but they don't even know..


Exactly My point !!! If the NWS was doing it there would be a published criteria people would know and could seriously talk about it ... but this gimmick by TWC seems ill thought out and appears to have back fired as its ill prepared with no thought at all...
TWC..what have they gotten themselves into?

Henry Margusity Fan Club
I would think that moderate snow with winds gusting to 40 mph would constitute a named storm. Sorry Grand Forks!
Quoting ncstorm:
TWC..what have they gotten themselves into?

Henry Margusity Fan Club
I would think that moderate snow with winds gusting to 40 mph would constitute a named storm. Sorry Grand Forks!


they should have named that storm yesterday night...if it would meet the criteria anyway.
Quoting VR46L:


Exactly My point !!! If the NWS was doing it there would be a published criteria people would know and could seriously talk about it ... but this gimmick by TWC seems ill thought out and appears to have back fired as its ill prepared with no thought at all...

It was a knee-jerk reaction, with no deliberation whatsoever. It was indiscriminately fabricated, with attention, marketing, and notability as the top motive.
There is no new info from TWC about naming and the criteria...
429. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

It was a knee-jerk reaction, with no deliberation whatsoever. It was indiscriminately fabricated, with attention, marketing, and notability as the top motive.


Totally agree with you ... just a private company trying to make extra bucks by building up normal weather event into a DOOMageddon ..LOL
TWC criteria for naming Winter Storms

It has to hit NY
It has to at least head in the direction of NY
It has to snow in NY
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
There is no new info from TWC about naming and the criteria...


maybe they are waiting for the official start of winter??
432. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
TWC criteria for naming Winter Storms

It has to hit NY
It has to at least head in the direction of NY
It has to snow in NY


LOL ... that would be a disgrace !!!
Quoting VR46L:


Totally agree with you ... just a private company trying to make extra bucks by building up normal weather event into a DOOMageddon ..LOL

Just should of stuck with DOOMCON. I sense some jealousy. LOL
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do they even have one...I have been looking for it...IDK


It was reported on the weather channel the day it was released. Go weather.com, click the news tab, and scroll down to the video. The criteria include snow or ice accumulation, wind, a populated area, teperature, and economic impact to name a few. I have seen nothing about geographical area, as some blogger have implied.
435. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Just should of stuck with DOOMCON. I sense some jealousy. LOL


Aye .. great minds came up with that one ..


Not much to worry about in the gulf at the moment

Quoting VR46L:


Totally agree with you ... just a private company trying to make extra bucks by building up normal weather event into a DOOMageddon ..LOL


Let's be hypothetical here.

If the NWS or WMO never named tropical cyclones, and storms like, for example, Hurricane Irene last year, was known as The New England Hurricane of 2011 but TWC started naming the storms for next year, 2013. Would you have a problem with it, with the knowledge you have of how effective naming tropical cyclones can be to prepare people and raise awareness?
Quoting ncstorm:
TWC criteria for naming Winter Storms

It has to hit NY
It has to at least head in the direction of NY
It has to snow in NY


With all respect due to you as a fellow human and blogger, if you lived where you were regularly impacted by severe winter weather- and I mean really severe, not just 3 or 4 inches of fluff, you may not feel this way. I have a 20 mile commute through the mountains to work each day, and I'm hoping this will help catch my attention in advance, so I can be ready and hopefully not end up stuck along the road (again.)
Quoting goosegirl1:


It was reported on the weather channel the day it was released. Go weather.com, click the news tab, and scroll down to the video. The criteria include snow or ice accumulation, wind, a populated area, teperature, and economic impact to name a few. I have seen nothing about geographical area, as some blogger have implied.
In his blog about TWC naming winter storms, Jeff Masters mentioned the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.
439. VR46L
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Let's be hypothetical here.

If the NWS or WMO never named tropical cyclones, and storms like, for example, Hurricane Irene last year, was known as The New England Hurricane of 2011 but TWC started naming the storms for next year, 2013. Would you have a problem with it, with the knowledge you have of how effective naming tropical cyclones can be to prepare people and raise awareness?


If it was a NWS backed idea I would have no problem with it .where it will be uniformly called such a name ,but its just plain ridicules that a private company does this but thats just my opinion
Quoting goosegirl1:


With all respect due to you as a fellow human and blogger, if you lived where you were regularly impacted by severe winter weather- and I mean really severe, not just 3 or 4 inches of fluff, you may not feel this way. I have a 20 mile commute through the mountains to work each day, and I'm hoping this will help catch my attention in advance, so I can be ready and hopefully not end up stuck along the road (again.)


Im not knocking winter weather..Im knocking TWC and how your town or city if you dont live in one of the big metropolitian areas wont get a named storm even though it could cripple thousands of people..look at the winter storm happening now and what do we have?? If they are going to take on a task with naming winter storms, the first objective would be to name the first winter storm that is happening now..
Quoting ncstorm:


Im not knocking winter weather..Im knocking TWC and how your town or city if you dont live in one of the big metropolitian areas wont get a named storm even though it could cripple thousands of people..look at the winter storm happening now and what do we have?? If they are going to take on a task as the naming winter storms, the first objective would be to name the first winter storm that is happening now..

Great point, NC.

These folks out here in the Badlands often see some of the worst blizzards in early December. And while it's very sparsely population as you can see, it's still part of our Country and the folks out here should be just as noteworthy to get the attention as the Megalopolis of the East Coast gets.

Quoting VR46L:


If it was a NWS backed idea I would have no problem with it where it will be uniformly called such a name but its just plain ridicules that a private company does this but thats just my opinion


So, even with all you know about how it can really help people by raising awareness, just because someone besides the NWS, or WMO came up with the idea - you wouldn't support it? That doesn't make sense, I get the fact that it might have something to do with ratings yes, if it was to come from the directors of TWC. This came from their mets, one of whom keeps a blog here on Weather Underground. Dr. Masters was also probably consulted on this idea. And I'm going to bet that they got approval from the WMO well in advance to do this. They don't just let companies do this, they have to get permission.

I've lived in the Northeast before, I was born there matter of fact, I can tell you that winter storms can be powerful and can come with little to no warning other than high chances of snow and some wind being predicted. No one prepares for them really, people always have their generators of course but there isn't a mass rush to the stores. But when it comes, people are caught off guard, on the road, in the open and ultimately something bad can happen. It's the exact same logic with naming tropical cyclones and it's proven to work without fail.

If anything, I'm disappointed this idea wasn't thrown out by WMO instead of TWC.
Quoting VR46L:


Exactly My point !!! If the NWS was doing it there would be a published criteria people would know and could seriously talk about it ... but this gimmick by TWC seems ill thought out and appears to have back fired as its ill prepared with no thought at all...
What do you mean by "backfired"? TWC has gotten a ton of publicity this week, while the primary backlash has been from TWC's lesser competitors, who merely come across as petty for complaining. That hardly seems like a "backfire" to me.

But the primary question: is TWC forcing anyone to use the names they select? Since the obvious answer is "no", all the grumbling here and elsewhere seems kinda silly. If you like the naming idea--as I and many others do--use the names TWC chooses. If not, call any winter storm any name you wish, or call it nothing at all.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
In his blog about TWC naming winter storms, Jeff Masters mentioned the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.
That was stating that for winter storms in the eastern two-thirds of the country, TWC would be using the NESIS in conjunction with the RSI (the "NE" in NESIS stands for "North East").
I'm amazed at how some of you guys who track tropical cyclones are against this idea, heck it gives me something to track over the winter instead of cyclones in the Southern Pacific, lol.
**I expect that this year The Weather Channel will be pretty conservative about assigning names, and only the very strongest winter storms will get named. For the eastern 2/3 of the country, storms that receive a ranking of "notable" or higher on NOAA's Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) or Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) are the only ones fairly certain to get named this winter. We only had one such storm during the winter of 2011 - 2012 (Snowtober, on October 29 - 31, 2011.) Thus, if we have another wimpy winter like last winter, we probably won't get to see the Wrath of Khan.**

Where does it say they will not name western or southern storms? I only see Dr. Masters making a prediction of what would be a good candidate for a named storm this year. And as for timing, they have stated they will name storms at least three days out. As far as I can see, by their own rules, TWC did not have time to name the current storm in the northern Great Plains.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm amazed at how some of you guys who track tropical cyclones are against this idea, heck it gives me something to track over the winter instead of cyclones in the Southern Pacific, lol.


Im not against the idea..Im just against TWC doing it..
447. VR46L
Quoting CybrTeddy:


So, even with all you know about how it can really help people by raising awareness, just because someone besides the NWS, or WMO came up with the idea - you wouldn't support it? That doesn't make sense, I get the fact that it might have something to do with ratings yes, if it was to come from the directors of TWC. This came from their mets, one of whom keeps a blog here on Weather Underground. Dr. Masters was also probably consulted on this idea. And I'm going to bet that they got approval from the WMO well in advance to do this. They don't just let companies do this, they have to get permission.

I've lived in the Northeast before, I was born there matter of fact, I can tell you that winter storms can be powerful and can come with little to no warning other than high chances of snow and some wind being predicted. No one prepares for them really, people always have their generators of course but there isn't a mass rush to the stores. But when it comes, people are caught off guard, on the road, in the open and ultimately something bad can happen. It's the exact same logic with naming tropical cyclones and it's proven to work without fail.

If anything, I'm disappointed this idea wasn't thrown out by WMO instead of TWC.


Sorry I fail to see the advantage of one private company calling it a name, when everyone else is referring to it a a winter storm .It will add to confusion to the general public, that only tune in to see how the weather will be tomorrow .People will maybe actually take things more lightly that TWC are over hyping things but that is JMHO
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm amazed at how some of you guys who track tropical cyclones are against this idea, heck it gives me something to track over the winter instead of cyclones in the Southern Pacific, lol.

These storms that Old Man Winter brings aren't any harder or easier to track because we as human gives them names. Mother Nature doesn't care what you call her. She will do what she wants. With that said, naming a system doesn't make it any more easier to track, it just get's the system much more attention...of which I believe is the motive behind this. And it's not just about the awareness either. It's the publicity and attention the commercial outlet is after.
449. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
What do you mean by "backfired"? TWC has gotten a ton of publicity this week, while the primary backlash has been from TWC's lesser competitors, who merely come across as petty for complaining. That hardly seems like a "backfire" to me.

But the primary question: is TWC forcing anyone to use the names they select? Since the obvious answer is "no", all the grumbling here and elsewhere seems kinda silly. If you like the naming idea--as I and many others do--use the names TWC chooses. If not, call any winter storm any name you wish, or call it nothing at all.That was stating that for winter storms in the eastern two-thirds of the country, TWC would be using the NESIS in conjunction with the RSI (the "NE" in NESIS stands for "North East").


Back fired ...the negattive reaction it is getting .. the fact they are ignoring the storm in the midwest right now..

Frankly I am surprised that you are so supportive of a private company doing such a thing .
450. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


Im not against the idea..Im just against TWC doing it..


Exactly my point !! Uniformity is necessary to avoid confusion .
R.I.P. Nadine:

AL, 14, 2012100412, , BEST, 0, 390N, 272W, 40, 998, DB, 34, NEQ, 150, 160, 0, 0, 1005, 110, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, M,

Meanwhile, Oscar's a tiny bit stronger, with pressure down to 1005mb:

AL, 15, 2012100412, , BEST, 0, 202N, 420W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1012, 220, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M,

See you around Nadine, in 2018.

September 11th, 2012 at 11AM - October 4th, 2012 at 11AM.

That's an insane 23 days.
There will always be people that agree and disagree on whether the WC should or shouldn't be naming winter storms.

My opinion is that if they did it properly and they covered the whole CONUS and not just the eastern 2/3's and with a proper criteria it would get a yes good idea from me, but until they bring out what criteria they have set down and change it to the whole of CONUS, it will only be a marketing gimmick to me.


On other things Tropical. we have two very ugly looking systems right now.

Ugly Oscar...



Ugly Gaemi...

Quoting ncstorm:


Im not against the idea..Im just against TWC doing it..

Well, you're against TWC period, so...

But honestly, if you guys don't like the idea, don't watch it. Plain and simple.
453:

Well said, Aussie.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, you're against TWC period, so...

But honestly, if you guys don't like the idea, don't watch it. Plain and simple.

But we can have an opinion about it, Cody. Plus it's more than the idea itself we're discussing. It's more or less how it plans to be implemented and by whom (NWS vs. TWC).
Quoting VR46L:


Back fired ...the negattive reaction it is getting .. the fact they are ignoring the storm in the midwest right now..

Frankly I am surprised that you are so supportive of a private company doing such a thing .
1) There's no such thing as bad publicity. As I said, the most vehement reactions have been from TWC's competitors--and that can only help TWC.

2) TWC isn't by any means "ignoring" the current storm; it simply doesn't meet TWC's published (though admittedly still somewhat fuzzy) criteria for naming.

3) I'm not against corporations; I'm only against corporate policies that are harmful to the environment or people. I'm all for policies that will do far more good than bad--which, judging by the looks of things, seems to be the case with TWC's storm-naming idea.
458. beell
90% of the population will enjoy the novelty of named winter storms. And that is all it is. A novelty.

The novelty for the remaining 10% is watching the kool-aid drinking cheerleaders trying to convince us otherwise.

Some of ya'll look pretty hot in your little skirts and pom poms...
Current US drought status and short term forecast. Hopefully once the pacific storm door opens the northern half of the US will see some relief.

National Drought Summary -- October 2, 2012

Weekly Summary: During the past week, a slow-moving front sank southeastward across the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous United States. A wave of low pressure formed along the front in west-central Texas near the Edwards Plateau, resulting in widespread heavy tropical rains for much of the southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the interior Southeast. Heavy rain (2 inches or greater) also fell over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, southern Illinois, eastern Missouri, and the interior mid-Atlantic region. The Upper Midwest, northern half of the Great Plains, and the West received little to no precipitation during the past 7-days. Temperatures for the period were generally above normal in the West (as much as 8 degrees above normal in the northern High Plains), 2-4 degrees below normal in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, and 2-4 degrees above normal in the Southeast.



460. VR46L
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, you're against TWC period, so...

But honestly, if you guys don't like the idea, don't watch it. Plain and simple.


But It will cross over to WU too where we will see blogs on Athena etc ...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, you're against TWC period, so...

But honestly, if you guys don't like the idea, don't watch it. Plain and simple.


oh young one..Im only against TWC naming storms and their whole policy of when and where such naming will occur..and I have seen you plenty of times come on here and bash them when they were reporting on hurricanes..and I believe your "teacher" wouldnt appreciate you texting in class..plain and simple..
Quoting TomballTXPride:

But we can have an opinion about it, Cody. Plus it's more than the idea itself we're discussing. It's more or less how it plans to be implemented and by whom (NWS vs. TWC).


only if your opinion agrees with him..
463. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
1) There's no such thing as bad publicity. As I said, the most vehement reactions have been from TWC's competitors--and that can only help TWC.

2) TWC isn't by any means "ignoring" the current storm; it simply doesn't meet TWC's published (though admittedly still somewhat fuzzy) criteria for naming.

3) I'm not against corporations; I'm only against corporate policies that are harmful to the environment or people. I'm all for policies that will do far more good than bad--which, judging by the looks of things, seems to be the case with TWC's storm-naming idea.


I understand why you would say this as at the moment you are given freedom for your lectures on AGW on here .

but It does not detract from the fact that uniformity on storms is what the general public need .. most people are not nerdy about weather like I am .. But I am concerned about the fact that weather conditions maybe misinterpreted .just because they are heading to the North East .and there should be no fussiness in a new policy it should be iron clad to stand up against ridicule .. which it is not and therefore is being ridiculed thoughout the social networks
There is no criteria as to geographical location, other than since TWC is leading this, they will only issue for the CONUS. No one has said the East will be the only area to have names issued, that is misleading info.
...BYE BYE NADINE...
...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...
BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED.
467. VR46L
Quoting goosegirl1:
There is no criteria as to geographical location, other than since TWC is leading this, they will only issue for the CONUS. No one has said the East will be the only area to have names issued, that is misleading info.


Then, why was the Midwest storm not named last night....
468. SLU
lol!

000
WTNT34 KNHC 041437
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

...BYE BYE NADINE...
...WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 26.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF LAJES IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE WEATHER SERVICE OF PORTUGAL HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT NADINE NO LONGER
HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND BECAME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST...MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE
WINDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DISTURBACE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
AZORES...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF NADINE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE
MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



I have wondered why we don't name these winter storms. Have seen them with such low central pressure and high winds they'd be a hurricane in a tropical zone. They do enormous damage, threaten lives and in terms of warning the people in their path, I think names would help give them an identity and a definition in terms of risk. I wish NOAA would do it, but don't see anything wrong with TWC stepping into the void, if they use consistent criteria. Maybe NOAA will like and adopt the idea.
470. SLU
000
WTNT44 KNHC 041438
TCDAT4

REMNANTS OF NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012

BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGES AND
ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...NADINE NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT. PENDING A POST-STORM ANALYSIS...NADINE WILL TIE GINGER
OF 1971 AS THE SECOND-LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ON
RECORD AT 21.25 DAYS. AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH INCLUDES THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE...IT IS THE FIFTH-LONGEST-LASTING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD IN THE BASIN...AT 21.75 DAYS.

GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A VORTICITY MAXIMUM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF NADINE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN
A DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 40.0N 26.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

Quoting ncstorm:


oh young one..Im only against TWC naming storms and their whole policy of when and where such naming will occur..and I have seen you plenty of times come on here and bash them when they were reporting on hurricanes..and I believe your "teacher" wouldnt appreciate you texting in class..plain and simple..

Well actually, if you want to be smart, I have a free period. Thanks anyways. :-)

And bash TWC? I'd like you to find one post.
Quoting VR46L:


But It will cross over to WU too where we will see blogs on Athena etc ...

Why is that a problem?
Love the last NHC advisory for Nadine. :p
Quoting VR46L:


But It will cross over to WU too where we will see blogs on Athena etc ...

I'll will hopefully be doing my own blogs on our upcoming Tropical Cyclone season.
Quoting TropicTraveler:
I have wondered why we don't name these winter storms. Have seen them with such low central pressure and high winds they'd be a hurricane in a tropical zone. They do enormous damage, threaten lives and in terms of warning the people in their path, I think names would help give them an identity and a definition in terms of risk. I wish NOAA would do it, but don't see anything wrong with TWC stepping into the void, if they use consistent criteria. Maybe NOAA will like and adopt the idea.

News casters in New England name Noreasters all the time. Most winter storms are bigger and more powerful then any tropic system that been up this way in 40 years.
478. VR46L
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why is that a problem?


Because not everyone here buys into the TWC hype ...and gets their weather from other sources
It has been said the information will only be on TWC, here is an excerpt from their press release....

Coordination and information sharing should improve between government organizations as well as the media, leading to less ambiguity and confusion when assessing big storms that affect multiple states.


From that, I would say the NWS and all other media organisations will be using the name given to winter storms by TWC.
90S is looking good
Quoting calkevin77:
Current US drought status and short term forecast. Hopefully once the pacific storm door opens the northern half of the US will see some relief.

National Drought Summary -- October 2, 2012

Weekly Summary: During the past week, a slow-moving front sank southeastward across the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous United States. A wave of low pressure formed along the front in west-central Texas near the Edwards Plateau, resulting in widespread heavy tropical rains for much of the southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, and the interior Southeast. Heavy rain (2 inches or greater) also fell over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, southern Illinois, eastern Missouri, and the interior mid-Atlantic region. The Upper Midwest, northern half of the Great Plains, and the West received little to no precipitation during the past 7-days. Temperatures for the period were generally above normal in the West (as much as 8 degrees above normal in the northern High Plains), 2-4 degrees below normal in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, and 2-4 degrees above normal in the Southeast.





The northern half of Central Florida is already abnormally dry?! This after a record wet summer and some rain the last 4 days. It does not take long to dry out around here. Also, lately, each time a significant cool down appears at the end of the 7 day forecast, temperatures are adjusted back up a couple days later. Latest forecast still shows nothing lower than 72F for the next week.
Quoting VR46L:


I understand why you would say this as at the moment you are given freedom for your lectures on AGW on here .
Oh, my bad; I thought you were engaging in a grown-up conversation, not sitting back waiting for a chance at an incongruent cheap shot. But no worries; I'll not make that mistake again.
Quoting beell:
Some of ya'll look pretty hot in your little skirts and pom poms...
Can you please try to keep your fantasies to yourself and off this blog? Thanks! ;-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well actually, if you want to be smart, I have a free period. Thanks anyways. :-)

And bash TWC? I'd like you to find one post.


Your post when you addressed me was put offish so you got back what you dished..and come on, remember your storm central tirade how TWC isnt what it used to be back in the day? I dont have time to go back to find your many posts but everyone including myself have had something negative to say about TWC at one point or another..but then again, I could be wrong and TWC is perfect..I do like TWC though just not when it comes to naming these winter storms..we got the NHC naming hurricanes, so why wouldnt we have let the NWS or HPC handled it as well..

Quoting Neapolitan:
1) There's no such thing as bad publicity. As I said, the most vehement reactions have been from TWC's competitors--and that can only help TWC.

2) TWC isn't by any means "ignoring" the current storm; it simply doesn't meet TWC's published (though admittedly still somewhat fuzzy) criteria for naming.

3) I'm not against corporations; I'm only against corporate policies that are harmful to the environment or people. I'm all for policies that will do far more good than bad--which, judging by the looks of things, seems to be the case with TWC's storm-naming idea.
The naming of systems seems to be gaining steam. I wonder whats next..Solar storms with with detectable CME,s.?
486. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my bad; I thought you were engaging in a grown-up conversation, not sitting back waiting for a chance at an incongruent cheap shot. But no worries; I'll not make that mistake again.Can you please try to keep your fantasies to yourself and off this blog? Thanks! ;-)



i can't belive we sunk over 90 billion in green energy and the company went bankrupt.....
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


The northern half of Central Florida is already abnormally dry?! This after a record wet summer and some rain the last 4 days. It does not take long to dry out around here. Also, lately, each time a significant cool down appears at the end of the 7 day forecast, temperatures are adjusted back up a couple days later. Latest forecast still shows nothing lower than 72F for the next week.


Yeah we had the same type of pattern in TX last year and it was awful. Even though we have done better than expected this year here it seems like the dry shadow has established a stronghold in the northern plains and midwest. When I lived out west we would go through periods of extreme drought and then the pineapple express would open up and bring much needed precip. Definite wishcasting here but it would be great for a split stream to carry some of these storms to both the north and south. We'll see what if any impact El Nino has this winter.
The Weather Channel Contacts TheWeatherSpace.com over Naming Issue

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - While TWC on-air meteorologists brag about being the first to name coming Winter Storms, TheWeatherSpace.com Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin has contacted The Weather Channel over the credit to claim, and a response was given.

The Weather Channel announced yesterday that they will be the first to name Winter Storms in the United States, before they come. Many have named them after the fact but no one has ever named them before hitting. However this was wrong.

Last night, Martin looked in an archive that is as good as a time machine itself, proving without a doubt he named them as far back as 2004. But, in reality he started it before the year 2000 with his viewers. The 2006 archive is enough to show the world The Weather Channel is not the first to come up with Winter Storm names before hitting populated areas.

TheWeatherSpace.com Network is the same outline as Ontario Weather Service back then and Southern California Weather Authority. However TheWeatherSpace.com is the national level site.

"TheWeatherSpace.com's studio is being built in Los Angeles, California and the novelty of this site on-air is to name Winter Storms," said Martin. "As you saw in the 2006 Blog and archive snapshot of my site back then showing it was categorized and named before hitting populated areas in Southern California."

What about on a national level?

"Adopting the same method of the Southern California Weather Authority, naming Winter Storms would expand this year nationally using my concept," said Martin. "The concept has a working category and criteria system for these storms, the same criteria for snow/blizzards in Southern California's Mountains."

The Weather Channel has contacted Martin today stating they will be giving a few days to speak to the company about it as Martin is pressing this issue hard.

"We already have a Winter Storm out there," said Martin. "Winter Storm Adam has been declared here at TheWeatherSpace.com and it will impact the most across North Dakota and Minnesota tonight. This is only confusing people and when TheWeatherSpace.com's main office goes even more national it will confuse them further."

So it looks like there will be an issue between The Weather Channel and TheWeatherSpace.com Networks on naming Winter Storms, since Martin has the documentation that would change their path.

Updates will come as they are available.

Link

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my bad; I thought you were engaging in a grown-up conversation, not sitting back waiting for a chance at an incongruent cheap shot. But no worries; I'll not make that mistake again

57 & 109:

"Hey Pot, meet Kettle."
Winter Storm Adam hits tonight into Thursday as a Category Two for ND/MN

(TheWeatherSpace.com) - Winter Storm Adam was declared last night here at TheWeatherSpace.com, and it is continuing to develop across South Dakota and deepen through Minnesota tonight, bringing snowfall to the region.

Winter Storm Adam is a high end Category One to weak Category Two on the Martin Winter Storm Intensity Scale, which means that in the center of the dynamics, wind gusts will reach 25 to 38 mph with up to 12 inches of snowfall.

Adam will start to drop snow in Southeast North Dakota overnight tonight, quickly deepening through Thursday morning and dropping category one conditions 6-11" of snowfall in Eastern North Dakota through Northwest Minnesota.

Because of the upper divergence within the band, expecting localized areas of 12" or higher, which ... with the wind ... will make it a weak end category two system.

Overall the system is a Category One for much of the area ... but some spots in the center of the dynamics will receive Category Two conditions.

Thundersnow could be possible at the upper Minnesota / North Dakota Border or in extreme Northwest Minnesota with the system.



The map above shows the category one and two shading of the forecast for Winter Storm, which is the first Winter Storm name of the 2012-2013 Winter Storm Season.

492. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, my bad; I thought you were engaging in a grown-up conversation, not sitting back waiting for a chance at an incongruent cheap shot. But no worries; I'll not make that mistake again.


I am engaging in a grown up conversation .. I am just trying to work out why you would be so pro an idea that makes so little sense among the majority of the community .. and that can be the only reason I can come up with ...
The No Name Storm of 1991



The No Name Storm of 1993



The No Name Blizzard of 1977



The No Name Blizzard of 2006

Quoting VR46L:


Then, why was the Midwest storm not named last night....
I believe there are parameters that have to be met first. They are not just going to name every snow storm....
Orlando should have lows in the low-mid 60's by next week.