WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

TD 15? And, Katrina: an unnatural disaster

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:38 PM GMT on September 05, 2005


Two disturbances to watch off of the coast of Florida
The important threat in the tropics today is a large area of disturbed weather extending from Miami eastward over the Bahama Islands. A small circulation center, visible on winds from the QuikSCAT satellite, has developed in association with this disturbance, about 50 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale, FL. Shear values are still probably a little too high--about 10 knots--to permit a tropical depression to form in this region today. However, the shear is forecast to decrease, and a tropical depression could form Tuesday or Wednesday. The computer models are less agressive developing this system today, but still indicate a tropical storm could form here and very slowly move northwards along the coast of Florida towards the Carolinas.

A second disturbance with a well-defined circulation visible on both visible satellite images and QuikSCAT data is located about 600 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. A concentrated area of deep convection has developed on the south and east sides of the circulation center. There is no convection over the center, which would have to happen before the system can be classified as tropical depression. Highest winds observed by the QuikSCAT satellite are about 20 knots. Shear values are about 10 knots, which is marginal for development, but the shear is likely to decrease some today and tomorrow, and this system has a good chance of becoming Tropical Depression 15. The system is expected to move slowly northwestward and meander in the area between Bermuda and the Carolinas.


Figure 1.Forecast track of tropical low 600 miles east of Cape Canaveral, FL.

African tropical waves
The tropical wave we've been watching cross the Atlantic for the past week is still out there, 300 miles east of the islands. This system has now moved far enough north that it may have a chance to develop later in the week as it moves through the Caribbean Sea.

A huge low pressure system accompanied by a large cloud of Saharan dust moved off of Africa yesterday. The dry air associated with the African dust will inhibit any development of this low.

Hurricane Maria
Hurricane Maria is a pretty sight on satellite images, with a large, well-formed eye. She may continue to intensify and reach Category 3 status by tomorrow as she heads northward and then northeastward out to sea. Expect Maria to die by Friday when cold water and wind shear take their toll.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Settle down Jeff.
Hello Everyone, I do not know if anyone remembers my user name. I was posting prior to the hurricane. We made it out of Hurricane Katrina with our lives, but our home did not make it very well.
weatherguy we coexist pretty well. our last discussion ended prety good but right now its whitye wabit insticating something and u choose to be on his side well good for you. i have told u on more than one occasion i appreciate ur input. what u took offense to was me and flmaverick joking around but u took it how u took it
I remember you Pascmiss. Glad you are ok. Where did you ride it out?
Sorry to hear that Pacs
pasc gladto hear ur alright. sorry about ur home
dang stormj i wanted him to tell me where i live since he knows so much lol
We stayed about 10 mile inland in Moss Point Mississippi. It was pretty rough there, but we had no idea what was going on a few miles south of us! It was terrible.
I remember you Pac, so glad you made it. Sorry about your home.
510. cjnew
PascMississippi - hey, very happy you made it, sorry your home wasnt as lucky. goodluck!
I am in Atlanta now with my family. We are staying with my wife's aunt for now. I will be going back later in the week.
lolcosmic must have found the school i go to or he would have been back to insticate some as well lol
On top of all of this hurricane stuff, my son has become ill. We are staying here for my sone to get treatment.
Sorry to hear that Pasc, but I am glad you made it out OK. I feel for you and all those that had to endure Katrina.
Leftyy...for God's sake give it up!! How boring!!! You want respect, how about showing a little class.
wll tip, idon'tsee peoplewanting a bio from you so they can break you down. when that happens to you than come and talk to me.
If any of you are religous, I need your prayers. My son, Patrick Larsen, is going to have a biopsy of his lymph nodes in his neck on Wednesday. Please pray that they do not find cancer. He is only 6 years old. Again, his name is Patrick Larsen. My name is Chip Larsen. Please pray for us and my family. Thank you all.
No disrespect leftyy...I realize that you are upset right now, but I'm finding it hard to listen to this continued negativity on all ends while someone is talking about trying to deal with devastation. Could everyone please settle down and put things in perspective?
Sorry lefty, figured it would be hard to dispute if I said it.
Prayers coming your way Pasc..sorry to hear that..
Rise above it Leftyy, you know who you are. And dont project it on to me. Now let's have some of that knowledge you have there. We all respect that.
522. cjnew
i think future td 16 will be named a depression just before it moves on shore around vero beach move west or slightly north of due west across the penninsula re emerge in the gulf and strengthen to tropical storm strength then make landfall around apalachicola area.
well jade i am upset and how i handle it is on me not you. maybe if people would spend less time trying to break me down we wouldn't be where we are right now
I hope eyerything goes well for your son Chip. I will say a prayer. I am not very relegious so I hope he listens. I have been praying for everyone in that region.


Convection seems to be getting deeper around 16.
prayers are with you Chip and with Patrick
yeah big strong Pasc...that hits home as i have a five year old..i will be praying for you..
527. cjnew
PascMississippi- absolutely, i hope that is not the case. goodluck to you and your family my prayers are with you. and your son. goodluck
If 16 moves up the coast in a NW or NNW fashion I would think this would give it time to strenghten?
Pasc- Your family will be in my family prayers
Definitely put you on my prayer list Pasc, and hold your little boy in the light.
Lefty, nobody is trying to break you down. I can see who has tempers on this blog (not just you). You do your thing. You give very interesting information. I have had a couple of meterology classes back in the day but I have learned alot from you and others who post intelligent statements. I am a scientist as well, both as a job and as a hobby. I work as a reseach and development microbiologist and I like astronomy and weather as hobbies. That is why I like the intelligent posts you make. Weatherboy also makes intelligent posts. Intelligent people differ in opinion often, that trait makes us bullheaded as well.
PascMississippi, I am so sorry to hear your news. Please know that I will be praying for you, as I am sure many others will be. I am religious, and believe there is power in prayer. Stay strong and keep the faith ....
Pasc-I am again sorry to hear that. I have a 10 yr old son and a 4 yr old daughter. Prayers will be coming your way.
have a good nite all..see ya all later..Keep them prayers going...Yes wonderer i can be bullheaded..lol..so true..
Pasc. All the best to you and your family. I know you probably hear this a lot, but hang in there. A lot of people are behind you and all who survived. Please keep us posted on your boy.
Thank you all for the kind words and prayers! I have already learned so much about people from this storm. There are a lot of good people out there. I have met many total strangers that have given us the shirts off of their backs. God is Great! I know that he will not let me down.
How long does the blackout last?
I am posting on this board because it appears to be the most active at the moment. Almost every day last week I watched live-stream Web casts from WWL, a N.O.-based TV station. On Wednesday or Thursday, two women from a New Orleans hospice called the station to report that their staff and patients were running out of provisions and their generator would give out at any moment. They were in dire straights and asked for immediate rescue. They gave the address of the hospice several times on air. At the time I naively assumed that help would arrive within hours.

Does ANYBODY know if those people were rescued from the hospice? I have thought about them every hour of every day since I heard their plea for help. Any information is appreciated.
black out is 2hrs
Looking at the Miami regional radar, it looks like rains is on a rapid increase near the center of the storm. I really don't what that means, if anything, but its worth noting.
What are you calling the center wonderer? I am thinking the cnter is closer to Freeport?
543. cjnew
SaintPeteSteph- i dont know if this is the place or people you were talking about but. a hospital or hospice building was found and every patient in the building had parished and the workers had seemed to have abandoned the patients be cause they were out of food and water and were sick themselves. not totaly sure of the credibilty of this story but it is a terrible story and a terrible situation for those employee's
Yes, I believe the center is just to the South (or right over) of Freeport.

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=1&zipcode=33101&level=state&site=FLS&anim=loop&type=RS
545. iyou
Pasc / Chip - i remember you very well, posting the eve before landfall - i have watched for you since - so very glad you and your family made it - very sorry about your home. i will keep your little Patrick in my thoughts and prayers.
546. cjnew
the center is very broad so you both could be correct. the reason it isnt a depression yet is because there isnt a very definate center. im sure you already knew that but was just saying
just a side note before i go...we are getting pounded with NE flow tonite here in NE florida..gale warnings now up for the GA coast..we have been gusting to 30 to 40 mph along the beach here..breakers almost 7ft..which would start some beach erosion soon..if this system moves slow its gonna take alot of beach out up this way..and we are just starting to put it back on from last years hurricanes.


i think if the rain is starting to get to the center it may become a TD16 at any time now am i right on that?
From Dr. Jeff on Sept. 2:

"On both blogs, I ask you to keep it positive and use it for discussions. Avoid making posts that more properly belong in a chat room (for example "How are you today?", etc)."

Sorry Dr. Jeff, we will do better.
Yeah cjnew, I just looked at the NWS rdar and it appeared that the circulation was actually East of the convection and rain.Which would loosely place the circulation just to the West of Freeport. Going check to what the wind direction is at Freeport.
cjnew, thanks for the response. Do you recall where you saw or heard that news? Even if you're not sure, any leads are appreciated - I can investigate further.
552. cjnew
TipOfIsland- i dont know why you posted that? the discussion has been very good the past few min. and the short remarks have been very positive and useful
553. cjnew
SaintPeteSteph- your welcome, my sister told me and im sure she was watching one of the news channel's like cnn or fox. i have also seen on one of those news channels where they interviewed a couple of nurses walking down the road that said that they just had to leave and couldnt stay. just a bad situation.
saintpete... try this... Link
I am not sure if this is the place you are talking about.
Sorry, CJ, it took me a while to find it and copy, etc. and that was all done back when it was needed. By the time I sent it all was thankfully back to normal on here. Hope you understand. :)
Wind at Freeport is from the NE at 14 mph. The radar does show the southward turn of the circulation near Freeport which would explain the earlier observations posted.
557. cjnew
tip- totally understand, actually realized that is what your intention probably was after i posted it. sorry about that :)
So where is she headed?
Freeport looks to be getting pounded with rain.
560. cjnew
goodnight everyone! and goodluck to all. c-ya tomorrow....cceejj
Thank you both for the information.
saintpete,
You're quite welcome.
Doesn't look like she is moving anywhere fast. I believe that shear may have played a bit of a role in the systems development (or lack of) today. The convection is not nearly as spread out to the North and much more concentrated near the center. Thus, I think the shear that may have been present has almost completely diminished.
Careful. Sheer seems to be a sore topic around here ;-)
I agree with you though. Just Hope I don't get into trouble.
Hmmm on radar the low off the east coast of Florida looks to my untrained eye like it is centered at around 27.7 north and 78.3 west. Definitely waiting to see what it does. Waves at our closest buoy up to 10.8 feet this evening, and it has had winds of 29 gusting to 35 knots. Surf on beach this evening was ROARING!
you mean sonny and shear subtropic lol
LOL!
Yep, both sunny and shear don't like hurricanes. :)
ha ha lol i just love that joke
ill bet they dont the canes dont like them either they sing them away lol i got u babe i got u babe lol
Run for the open seas...its sunny and shear...!!!!
hahahahahahaahahah lololololo man im rotfl
See what we started. Never... NEVER mention shear again.
LMAO!
see all its all fun know every one knoes what cher is opps shear lol
Yeah, we will keep sheer to pantyhose. We will from now on call shear rip winds. Oh no! Can't use that one either!
ha ha rotfl


i am going to bed now and i would like to no when i get will i see TD16 and will i see hurrican nate when i get up and what time will they be looking at TD16?
and that was comedy night in jeffs blog thank u thank u very much lol
night david stay away from sonny and shear lol
Interesting banding feature just popping up on MIA radar.
Good night David!
888 your guess is good as mine. Hurricane Nate almost seems a given considering this year. TD-16 ??? could be, maybe, lots of unknown factors.


ah ah ah iwould like to no what time will they go take a look at TD16 or if it dos come TD16
Good night David, I'm not too far behind.
the next advisory will be at 5 in the morning david night
if it turns into something
Check again in the morning, the diurinal night phase will be completed (tropical systems like the night, not sunny :))

how did i do today and what i mean is did do good ok find not to bad next advisory on what and what time is it overe there?
David,
you did good and the next advisory is here at 5 am: Link
Good night.
wow i was right cool
You did fine 888, just check this blog or go to the NOAA site an find out what happened. Like Jeff said, the next advisory is at 5 EST. You might get the 12:00 EST advisory by the time you get up considering you are in Calf. Depends on when you have to go to work.
u did great just stom those words i cant really understand your smarter than that i just know it night david
Subtropic you said you noticed banding patterns on the Miami radar. I just checked it and noticed that the North part of the circulation was beginning to wrap around.
Correct. Thats what I was referring to. That's the first concentric band I have seen from this thing so far.

befor i go what dos that mean?
Although concetric is an overstatement, it is looking somewhat tropical-ish now.
What does what mean David?
david stop acting like a dumb a... and start acting like a man kl



the North part of the circulation was beginning to wrap around.
acting stupid here is not considered cool except some perple her e think its so
and ill bet if your 20 your alot smarter then you act like
Who knows may have something by morning. IR presentation looks ragged. Don't know but I think this storm will at least make TD catagory after that???? Where is it going to go. Latest models mostly take it into Fla. It it avoids that, given the tract record for storms, the sky is the limit. Pun intended.
i don't know, but if that band comes in and doesnt keep moving, I'll be swimming by morning. I didn't get the tarp on the roof today.
In about 10 minutes I'm going to turn on the radio and listen to Coast to Coast with George Noory. Very interesting radio show, wish it didn't come on so late. If you are familiar with Art Bell you know what I'm talking about.
Hey
Havent posted in a while - have been in Mineapolis but I came home tonight to my Houston and all my beloved cities that I spent my summers are gone - just gone -
I am so proud that my city has opened it doors and heart to so many - so many - I'm sure the death toll will reach either the same as the Great Hurricane in Galveston (6,000 died) or surpass it -

night guys watch out for sonny and shear lol and david think abiout what i said k
I dont think Bush Sr. or Clinton is making money off of this - the only people making money off of this are the Oil people and Cheney
That is really wrapping around nicely. It might be worth leaving the tarp off just for the shear excitemnt. Oh no. I did NOT just say that.
I hope you are kidding but if not, sorry. Did you get hit by Katrina?
Good night Jeff. Hi EmmyRose. I think you are right on both of you're posts.
Was that for me weather?
Yes, subtropic. Hope things are fine.
weatherwonder - am listening to C2C now - Art Bell is a genius - not sure about Noory
Sorry. I must be getting punchy. Not Katrina. Of all things, an outer band from Dennis of all things. The roof took Francis and Jean, but when that feeder band came through that night, something hit the roof and now it leaks. More annoying than anything else.
weatherwonderer - have any thoughts on HAARP?
I like both. Art Bell is a genius but George is so personable and I believe very intelligent. He had a radio show here in St. Louis right before coast to coast, it was very good. I consider him at least as a radio show host, the human that I wish all of was. He is respectful and knowledgeable and very open-mined.
didnt say I didn't like Noory - met him once, very nice
just not an Art Bell - no one is like the master
HAARP is scary to say the least but being a scientist myself (not related, I'm a microbiologist) I can understand why they might want to do it. However, messing with the ionosphere and the magnetic belts is alittle unnerving considering that is what protects us from the sun.

No problem subtropic hope you stay dry.
Well people on C2C are talking how HAARP created Katrina
totally ridiculous - am NOT a scientist but even I have a hard time buying that one
I used to be that way. Art Bell is excellent and got me hooked hard around '93. But frankly I like them both about equally well. The contrast is nice between them Art with his cerbral almost nerdy style and George with his gentle Jim style. Both have interesting guests and share many recurring ones.
Yeah the idea of controlling weather, esp. at the level some guest are clainly is pretty ridiculous (however, I try to stay open-minded). Still...
Should I say Richard C. Hogland. I kinda like him but I think he is starl raving mad (although I agree with him on some points about Mars).
will someone that has the power, please ban 88888 from posting?
Yeah I try to stay in la la land in my world - (sunny, 80 degrees all year round LOL)I would hate to think there is a "shadow government" controlling our weather and giving all the repair work to Halliburton - nah, that could never happen LOL -
My typing is going bad, must be getting late. I'm listening to the show off the net right now. I'll probably stay up till 1:00. I took tomorrow off from work so I guess I don't have a curfew.
The guest is way too good about the re-arranging of America's coast - should be good weather predications also????
P.S. RCH drives me nuts - he can have MARS
Yeah Emmy, George and company I'm sure would love to control the weather. I like 80 degrees all year but usually in St. Louis we get that about 2 weeks between Spring-Summer-Fall. Otherwise, 100 degree with 100% humidity or 20 degrees with driving snow (and everything in-between).
Try Houston - 100 degrees with 100 % humidity - praying hurricanes don't hit ya - the only way I know the seasons have changed is that my allergies kick in - St. Louis is a great town - just drove thru Missouri - to get to Minneapolis
If I was not a microbiologist, I would like RCH that much either. I not only believe life is on Mars I'm pretty sure of it. The only problem is that he take things to levels that are annoyingly ridiculous. And everything NASA does is a cover up. Stick to one conspiracy and stay there.
Steph here are a couple of links I was given to find a family member, they have alot of info..LinkLink
Yeah, I like St. Louis, only thing to worry about is tornados and New Madrid.
What is HAARP?
And RCH?
Like I said I'm not a scientiest, but RCH is like wired on too much coffee - a mr. know it all -
guess we're getting off the weather topic here -
Is anyone on from Minneapolis? How bad does the weather really get up there????
Forgot the acronym but it essentially is an experiment where they are bouncing high level raio waves into the ionosphere to see what effects it would have.
StormJunkie - sorry for all these initials - we're listening to this all night talk show - Coast To Coast - about aliens, shadow government, conspiracies, weather predictions and things that go bump in the night -
RCH is Richard C. Hoagland - a self professed know it all
on Mars - HAARP is in Alaska and can control weather
storm, have you looked at the miami radar recently?
Intresting what talk show?
RCh-Richard C Hogland. He was famous (infamous) for a video he made called the Monuments of Mars. It is a video describing an area called the "the face" or cydonia and how it relates to the pyamids and the sphinx on Earth. He is realllllly hyyper. I think some thoughts he has are interesting but he takes things really far. Just listen to coast to coast and you will eventually know who he is since he is a common guest. The web site is coasttocoastam.com if you want to find a radio station near you. It comes on at 12:00 A.M. Central time. You can join the site and get feeds off the net.
Yea only the shortrange seems to be working right now though. THis happens at certain times each day and I am not sure why. Really waiting to come out of blackout.

If this thing moves up off the coast of Florida GA/SC could be in for an intresting week. If it does develop the warm waters of the gulf could really fuel at long as shear stays weak.
Just as long as this thing stays OUT of the gulf which it looks like it's going to do Storm Junkie - hope it just stays away
Damn I hate the wait and see periods with these things.
The latest Miami radar is interesting. Looks like the wrap around is beginning to occur. Be interesting to see if it holds up through the night. That band is about to reach the coast of Fla. hope you don't need the tarp. :)
Link

try that. Was looking like a band developing earlier. Now the whole thing is starting to look more and more like a trough. I will be interested to see what comes in after the eclipse.
the tarp or harp LOL
Yeah wait and see periods, that how coast to coast got introduced.
I wish I could assure you that that will happen Rose, but it seems the tracks on this one differ greatly.
Oh yeah. The tarp.
I got a bigger bucket. That will have to do. Couldn't find a ladder while it was still light.
Tarp or Harp, sunny and shear...hmmm lol
Storm - I thought this will go up the Eastern Coast - I dont see it coming into the Gulf - where does it predict that?
in fact my old lady looked at the radar a while ago on her laptop and said to me "don't forget to put the bigger bucket."
My life is a cartoon.
Maybe you should go hi-tech...put a bilge pump in. :)
like you said weather wonderer it's getting late...
and theres alot of pressure to stay awake LOL
Rose the GFDL had it headed (and I hat to say this) but for LA after it crossed Florida, but that was this morning. The Bamm also carried it across florida but more towards Pensacola. All of that was this morning though and the models will not do well until something forms.
But not Texas - dear God hopefully not LA either - guess we have to wait and see
Yeah, Emmy it has been a pleasure to have gotten to know you alittle, CtoC and such but I have been here quite a while. It has been an interesting night. I do think it time to sign off. My brain is saying enough is enough. Good wishes to you all.
goodnight weather.
Night y'all -
Should be out of the blackout soon.
You know what's a bit creepy. It almost looks like it is moving a bit south of due west (drifting really). Like the GFDL said ealier today.
How do you figure Subtropic? It looks tome to be more stationary or moving NW. Not to mention the GFDL initiated it too far south.
Blackout over. Just waiting for images to load.
Sorry no new image yet in Floater 2.
I was just making an observation. Don't go getting all technical on me. Besides, too far south based on what? There is not yet a center.
Based on where the GFDL initiated it. The Gfdl had it develop further S. Where the estimated center was this morning. We really need teh new Sat pictures though. The shortrange out of Miami is starting to show some more shower activity and there is some sort of circulation, how well defined is the questions.
I was hoping more convection would pop up by now so maybe we could see some definition in the radar returns (read more t-storms and showers around a "center").
yes, based on radar img the system is getting better organised. banding is more destinct and sure we will see a llc develop soon. but a good sat img and microwave pass would be helpfull
Morning Lefty. Should be getting that any time soon huh? Why does the long range radar tend to go out fromt ime to time and yet the shortrange is stioo current data?
dunno, its probly a computer bug. the long range has always been spotty for as long as i can remeber. i am more suprised wheen it is working than not.
lol. Any clue on track of this thing yet?
u also know that we are only seeing like 1/4th of the storm even in long range radar. most of the system is back over the bahamas
no clue on track at all
Yea. I am not sure that Subtropic was aware of that, but I am waiting to see the new floater images.
nasa site is out of blackout already and the center might be fartjer east than we think
here is a link to the nasa site

Link
Track is going to play a big part indevlopment. If it stays far enough offshore until the GA/SC area then it could have a little bit of time to strengthen over those warm waters. Stsimmon stated a bouy of GA coast reached 90 for first time ever.
Good evening Lefty, I have been tracking storms from the southeast coast of Florida for a little over 20 years. I am familiar with the geography and the radar limitations.
never said u weren't. i was refering to the images out of the blackout show the estimated center might be furter east than any of us thought and the convection we see in radar is only the edge
Hard to tell from that image, although the convections seems to be moving N of Grand Bahama
floater blackout over
Sorry Sub it was me that stated I did not know if you knew that.
New image on the floater. NOt very organized, but very deep convection. I see what you mean by may be E of what we were thinking.
if u click radar when veiwing the floater it will overlay the radra and u can see we are only seeing 1/4th if that of the system. most heavy precip and convection well off to the east though i would loved to see whats going on out there
Storm, no need to apologize. It's late and my reply came across NOT like I intended. Didn't meant to sound rude, but I see that I did.
yeah and a more eastern storm will probly skirt the coast and impact ga/sc area
its cool sub. i thought maybe i came across rude lol. i was pointing that the storm might be further east and may all ready have a center radar sign and we can't see it cause its out of range. the radar circulation is better defined that a few hrs ago so we know atlest the low is probly a little stronger than befor
but from what we can see the banding is starting to form .
yeah. that leading edge of rain is just to my south off shore.
where u at?
Lake Worth.
cool
looks like the heavier rain is setting up to pass to my south, although I see more devloping and getiing ready to swing around the top. that probably wont miss me. I should probably try to get some sleep. Once the roof starts leaking, it's hard to sleep with all that dripping!
lol good luck man.
yeah. I'm gonna need it. If one of these bands gets stuck over us, the ceiling is gonna go. I have GOT to find a ladder and get the tarp up. I have been saying that for 3 days now. Can you tell I have no real desire to do it? Damned Dennis! Didn't even come close to us and I am still dealing with damage from one lousy feeder band. I am just finishing rebuilding a room from Francis and Jean.
dude go to home depot. they usually rent stuff like that and those bands from canes can be a sob sometimes
You're right. Feeder bands are a problem. I just need to motivate. Nice talking to you tonight and again, I apologize if I came off sounding rude earlier. I just wanted to let you guys know that I am familiar with this. I know you do a lot of hand holding here which is cool. If I can be of any service to you likewise, just ask.
Did Nate really start to grow or is it an anomaly from the sat blackout? trying to see a rotation. You'd think they would have a floater on Nate.
wow the system off of florida is really taking off. banding is very evedint on radar. we should see this becomd td16 later today/ maybe at 11am update
good morning lefty,
what do you think about a ship leaving Baltimore on the 7th heading for Europe (Med)? it doesn't look like it would be a good idea to me. Earlier I thought it could fall in behind Maria about that time but Nate is developing to fast for that. What are your thoughts?
here is what i was sayng earlier but from the nhc


SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...ALONG WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
kill, most ships know how to navigate around trouble areas. by time u left only problem would be nate as maria will accelerate quickly away. but its on you. i would go as nate should not be a big problem for sometime. but as i said thats on you
well good night yall. should wake up to td 16. man what a year. and we still have 2 months to go wow
thanks. I'm flying but if the ship can't leave I get delayed.
it should be fine kill. nate will be moving slow for the next 3-5 days befor he gets whipped out so your ship should be well ahead of hime and maria will be long gone. shoulf not be a problem
cool thanks and sleep tight.
this is taken from the NWS website at 5:30am Tuesday morning

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...ALONG WITH NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
yeah wild, thats whta i was saying 2 hrs ago. we should have a td by 11am update or they might wait till the recon flight but we will se td 16 tomm. prety sure of that
Maybe a dumb question, but what is itcz?
ITCZ is the (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) just n and s of the equator. It's where the winds from both sides of the equator converge and we see very light winds and thunderstorms.
Man that looks like a hurricane tonight!
Nate sucks. Bring on TD16.
Thanks TVwxman, that make sense.
714. IKE
Joe Bastardi thinks the system east of Florida will hang off of the east coast for the next few days...develop into a tropical storm and eventually head west across Florida into the gulf.

He has it at 26N...78W.
where is a good link for Joe Bastardi.... accuweather.com?
716. IKE
Yup....Joe Bastardi is on accuweather.com...plus he's on the local AM radio station here in Defuniak Springs, Fl on the Florida Network.
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS OFF THE
COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR 26N78W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT THAT WELL DEFINED ON THE MIAMI
RADAR IMAGERY BUT DOES APPEAR TO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. LOW IS BENEATH THE W SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
HIGH PRODUCING S SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30/45 NM OF LINE 26N77W-28N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
25N79W-31N76W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N TO NW BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
AND BE NEAR OR OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

From 8Am update.
Wow looking at WV loop...Link..it looks like that S shear that was affecting that storm yesterday has really diminished..should have depression soon if they can find a low level center.
719. IKE
Looks like a tropical depression is forming off of the SE coast of Florida with some bandings features and decent convection.

Joe Bastardi thinks the system could get in the gulf and be a headache for areas that don't need it....LA/Mississippi?
too much to catch up on, but will try before dr masters gives a new blog...since it is no longer a depression but Nate...it is kind a gusty here..and the satellite image from miami shows some spinning....
Link
it is spinning, tell me its not?! Oh boy, gonna be a busy week
thanks weatherguy for the link...I'll be watching ALL DAY!
Oh yeah its spinning...Link..we will see if they find a low level center..looks like one developing..they may wait until aircraft goes out this afternoon to see what they have.
724. IKE
The Fowey Rocks,Fl. buoy has a NW wind at 25 mph. Bet it's classified as a depression by this afternoon.
everyone sleeping or just nothing to say...I'll tell ya, I have been w/out internet this weekend, but I didn't need it to tell me there was something out there off the east coast of FL.
Boy after looking at all the models this one is gonna be a hard one to forecast..lol...the basic word is SLOW..this one is not moving fast anytime soon...most models have a slow drift to the NW or N..No matter what happens here, on the E.Coast of Fl. the NE wind event we have now is going to continue for awhile as seas are now 8 to 10 ft. off shore, and beach erosion will start to begin today.
Gonna check out the seas after work today to see whats happening..but a prolonged NE wind event for the coast here is sometimes worse then anything we can get, for beach erosion and coastal flooding.
I live on the east coast of Fl....last night had a line of heavy rain come thru with gusts up to about 30-35 mph. The wind all day yesterday was blowing about 15-20 mph out of the NE. Area looks alot better on radar this morning...I see a depression by this afternoon.
ya, wasn't a beach weekend, didn't even try it...and the clouds are so tropical looking, lined up, towering very low to very high, it is awsome to look at when its not dangerous....
I think by 11Am, we'll have ourselves another t.d. off FL
Just checked...seas 20 miles out are at 7 ft. 120 miles out they are 8.5ft
I agree with you stormy. Seems like the weather here will only be getting worse over the next few days.
gonna be wet....I am watching that low drag all that moisture towards FL....does anyone know which way is it going? Or is it gonna stay statinary for awhile?
new update...talk to you there...
If it is moving at all, I think it has a drift to the N and NW.
Got 20-25 NE and 9' seas on the outer banks.