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TD 14 likely to become Maria; new Gulf of Mexico system brewing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:32 PM GMT on September 07, 2011

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed yesterday from a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa early this week, and is headed west-northwest towards an encounter with the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Satellite loops show a large a steadily organizing system with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, good upper-level outflow to the north and west, and some respectable low-level spiral bands beginning to form. TD 14 is probably a tropical storm now, and is very likely to be named Tropical Storm Maria later today. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next five days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, TD 14 should generally show a strengthening trend. Curiously, most of the intensity forecast models show little strengthening of TD 14, so NHC is keeping their intensity forecast lower than is typical for a storm in these conditions at this time of year.

The track forecasts for TD 14 from the various models agree that the storm will affect the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, though there are some differences in forward speed, resulting in some uncertainty whether the storm will arrive at the islands as early as Friday night, or as late as Saturday afternoon. After it passes the Lesser Antilles, TD 14 has the usual amount of high uncertainty in its 5 - 7 day track forecast. The models are split on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast will have. The ECMWF and UKMET models prefer a more southerly track for TD 14 through the Bahamas towards the U.S. East Coast, while the GFS, NOGAPS, and HWRF models predict a more northwesterly track, with a potential threat to Bermuda. It's too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting TD 14 has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 14.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee on Monday, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, and this disturbance has been designated Invest 96L by NHC. Latest visible satellite loops do not show that 96L has a closed surface circulation yet, but buoy and surface observations along the coast of Mexico suggest that there may be a large-scale counter-clockwise circulation present over the Bay of Campeche. Sustained winds at Buoy 42055, about 100 miles to the northwest of the suspected center of 96L, were northeast at 27 mph at 6:50 am CDT this morning. Water vapor satellite loops show that here is a large area of very dry air from Texas to the north of 96L, and this dry air may interfere with 96L's development. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled for this afternoon into 96L.

Most of the computer models develop 96L into a tropical depression in the next 1 - 2 days, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, I give 96L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next tow days, a bit higher than the 60% probability NHC is going with. Steering currents are weak in the Bay of Campeche, making for a lot of uncertainty in where 96L might go. The only model predicting a U.S. landfall is the ECMWF, which predicts 96L might hit between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. A more popular solution is for the storm to meander in the Bay of Campeche for many days, and eventually make landfall on the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico. None of the models is hinting at a track towards Texas, and the intense dome of high pressure associated with their record drought and heat wave will tend to discourage any tropical cyclones from making a Texas landfall over the coming seven days.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia continues to the northwest as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that dry air has eaten into the southwest side of the storm. The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. Bermuda may see a few rain showers from Katia, but the storm will not cause hazardous weather there. The main impact of Katia will be a multi-day period of high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.


Figure 2. GOES-13 image of Hurricane Katia and the remains of Tropical Storm Lee, taken at 11:45 am EDT Tuesday September 6, 2011. At the time, Katia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding, tornadoes
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Fortunately, the dry soils that were present before the event started have helped keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range. No river is currently at major flood stage as a result of rains from Tropical Storm Lee. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop 3 - 5 inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate but not major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 40 tornado reports over the past four days from Lee, including two in North Carolina yesterday. Most of these tornadoes have been weak EF-0 and EF-1 twisters. A tornado that hit Cana, Virginia at Sunday night ripped the roof off of a gas station and injured two people. More tornadoes are likely today over coastal Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Waveland, MS: 14.11"
Fyffe, AL: 12.94"
Cleveland, TN: 12.22"
Rome, GA: 11.01"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Blowing Rock, NC: 7.18"
Fancy Gap, VA: 6.77"
Cranks Creek Reservoir, KY: 5.49"
Andover, NJ: 5.06"
Montgomery, NY: 4.23"
Pittsfield, MA: 3.90"
Bluefield, WV: 3.76"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Keene, NH: 3.64"
Hagerstown, MD: 3.60"
Norwalk, CT: 3.20"
Wilmington, DE: 2.63"
Woodford, VT: 2.63"
Washington, DC: 2.42"

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting atmoaggie:
Without shear, he won't have to.

With shear, he wouldn't deal with it well. (but, there is almost no shear.)
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


There's practically no shear, so whilst Nate will entrain some, there won't be any getting blown into the core.

Okay, that makes sense. Thanks.
1002. HCW
Quoting Tazmanian:
where is the nhc cone of doom

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Are you kdding me? Mexico? Really?

LMAO!!!

Mexico sounds good to me. And looks good.

Florida. Looks bad. No way this thing goes there!
Nate's track,

looks like iceland has a better chance at getting a cane this year then mostg
guys look what else could be froming in the mid of the gulf looks good huh?

Quoting petewxwatcher:
Been a while since I saw the wind graphic reach Scotland.



That's all we need - more wind and rain!
1008. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
Grothar!

(The average age in here just went from 21.6 to 82.3)


And the thought just occurred to me that if you left, so would the IQ. (Only a true buddy could say that)
Not that I'm saying it will.

But...
Link
1010. Dakster
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
florida gets nothing this year again


And that is way this Floridian likes it...
Quoting Grothar:
Thanks, Nice being back. I can't leave you guys alone for a minute. Soon as I leave, I come back and see you tracking 3 storms. Well, looks like more coming. And thanks for all the kind words. I really mean it.


Hey Grothar, good to see you back.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nate's track,





that is not nate track
Woop woop! Gro's back in the house!

===================================

18z GFS runs in 10 minutes...
Quoting docrod:


where did you find that image please - yes I love his dry humor.
Avila is a giant amongst men. Many are talking about a Romney/Avila ticket in 2012. NHC would be infused with 10 billion, enabling them to 1. Put a plane in every wave...24/7. 2. Pave the Western Sahara Desert to choke off the African dust issue 3. Launch a campaign to convince women that tropical forecasters are to be worshipped, and deserving of their admiration. Long Live Avila!!!!!!
haha nhc has nate going into mexcio doubt that. and why does the nhc have maria peak out at 50mph?
Quoting MississippiWx:


The Panhandle is also Florida and until today, several models were bringing it there. We should have a much better handle on things tonight in the 00z runs now that they have a classified tropical cyclone to use in their input.


The NHC cone has the bend to the west into MX. We can all go about our normal lives. Even the Euro backed off its northern GoM risk.

The Bastardi Model might be the only one left calling for some risk along the US gulf coast.
1018. Dakster
Quoting Grothar:


And the thought just occurred to me that if you left, so would the IQ. (Only a true buddy could say that)


GROTHAR!!! Glad to see you back. We were all worried about you.

1019. HCW
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha nhc has nate going into mexcio doubt that. and why does the nhc have maria peak out at 50mph?


They do not have it making landfall at this time
Quoting Ameister12:
How is Nate gonna deal with all this dry air? Just curious.


If you remember DON, the storm will push valiantly again the dry air and then go poof near the coast when cooler water gets mixed up, sheer will rip it apart, and the dry air pushes back at the same time.

Different kind of DOOM, eh?
Dewpoint of 76 F at the surface right at the front:


(Click for full size)


IF Nate sets up well, the dry air entrainment will be limited and the surface moisture is certainly there.
1022. WxLogic
18Z NAM (Prod) @84HR we'll see if P22L manages to survive and cause this:

Quoting docrod:


where did you find that image please - yes I love his dry humor.
Link, Here you go.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nate's track,


Still not far enough north for you Rita. For you to get anything out of Nate if he does that, you best better hope for a storm the size of Lee.
Quoting Grothar:
Thanks, Nice being back. I can't leave you guys alone for a minute. Soon as I leave, I come back and see you tracking 3 storms. Well, looks like more coming. And thanks for all the kind words. I really mean it.



Nice to see you back and to read your post - awesome graphic there thanks!
Quoting Grothar:
Thanks, Nice being back. I can't leave you guys alone for a minute. Soon as I leave, I come back and see you tracking 3 storms. Well, looks like more coming. And thanks for all the kind words. I really mean it.



Yes, it seems that your leaving is worse than Dr. Master's going on vacation.
Quoting A4Guy:


I am NOT calling you a wishcaster...but you say this about every storm that is forecast to curve. Do you really think you see somehting the NHC doesn't see? That's not to say models won't change - but the large-scale pattern is in place, and we have not seen the high push far west this year...plus, we have seen constant troughing.


It's obvious by looking at the steering.. I'm not saying it's gonna hit the USA, but may effect Canada.. Perhaps Nantucket/Cape Cod a bit more then originally thought.

Quoting Grothar:


And the thought just occurred to me that if you left, so would the IQ. (Only a true buddy could say that)
Ouch!
(good one. Among your best, in fact.)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Which models? XTRP? BAMM, LBAR. How about LMAO


Umm, no. How about the CMC bringing it to AL/FL line at the 12z run. How about the European 00z run bringing it to MS/AL. How about loads of ensembles?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Mexico sounds good to me. And looks good.


Oh sorry, we're clearly using the wrong maps here. I forgot you're using the map that only shows the CONUS as the only place on the Earth. Do people not live in Mexico? And are you really that dense to call all storms this year garbage when a 10 BILLION DOLLAR DISASTER Hurricane Irene hit the United States? TELL it to people who lost there homes in Irene that it was a garbage storm. Tell it to people who live in PR that Irene was a nothing storm, because that's what your implying. Your not a troll, but your sure sounding like one right now.
Quoting Tazmanian:
where is the nhc cone of doom
The NHC hasn't released it yet. or have they? Anwser my question, WU!
TCNA number coding
Japan Meteorological Agency
2011 Typhoon Season
================================================= =========

01NONAME - April 4, 2011
02AERE - May 6, 2011
03SONGDA - May 20, 2011
04SARIKA - June 9, 2011
05HAIMA - June 17 2011
06MEARI - June 21, 2011
07MA-ON - July 11, 2011
08TOKAGE - July 15, 2011
09NOCK-TEN - July 25, 2011
10MUIFA - July 26, 2011
11MERBOK - August 3, 2011
12NONAME - August 3, 2011
13NONAME - August 10, 2011
14NANMADOL - August 23, 2011
15TALAS - August 23, 2011
16NORU - September 2, 2011
17KULAP - September 7, 2011

---

14 named cyclones...

Atlantic is as busy as the West Pacific with advised cyclones. What is going on?

LOL
1033. docrod
Quoting miguel617:
Link, Here you go.


thank you - I trust him a lot too. take care.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
The NHC hasn't released it yet. or have they? Anwser my question, WU!

It's not on the NHC site, but here ya go.
1035. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:



I know how you feel!


Good to see you back my friend. Hope all is well
Quoting Ameister12:
How is Nate gonna deal with all this dry air? Just curious.

One pixel at a time.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Umm, no. How about the CMC bringing it to AL/FL line at the 12z run. How about the European 00z run bringing it to MS/AL. How about loads of ensembles?

00Z are the model runs...the ones that matter after Nate was put in there. Don't see those two aforementioned models doing that same track later tonight.
And I can't believe I missed Grothar coming back, welcome back Gro!!!!
Nate is setting up the stage for the Caribbean system



1041. HCW
Quoting interstatelover7165:
The NHC hasn't released it yet. or have they? Anwser my question, WU!


yes they have check out my last post for it
Quoting reedzone:


It's obvious by looking at the steering.. I'm not saying it's gonna hit the USA, but may effect Canada.. Perhaps Nantucket/Cape Cod a bit more then originally thought.



That steering will change. It's obvious by looking at the NHC Forecasted Track. Perhaps some fish/icebergs more than originally thought:

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



heading for MX
1044. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


GROTHAR!!! Glad to see you back. We were all worried about you.



So was I. Thanks, Dak. So, nobody knows where these storms are going yet?
1045. Drakoen
ECMWFEPS still show a wide range of possibilities from the eastern to central GOM.

Quoting aerojad:
Trolls around here wouldn't be satisfied unless there were simultaneous cat 5 strikes on NOLA, Miami, and NYC. It's not entertaining unless there's thousands dead.

/annoyed lurker


Weather Underground spent a lot of money designing that "Hide" button for us, but yeah there's a lot of kids, punks, students, and trolls who make little messes everywhere like little puppy dogs.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
The NHC hasn't released it yet. or have they? Anwser my question, WU!
I think they're still generating it.

Current number stands at:
14-2-2
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh sorry, we're clearly using the wrong maps here. I forgot you're using the map that only shows the CONUS as the only place on the Earth. Do people not live in Mexico? And are you really that dense to call all storms this year garbage when a 10 BILLION DOLLAR DISASTER Hurricane Irene hit the United States? TELL it to people who lost there homes in Irene that it was a garbage storm. Tell it to people who live in PR that Irene was a nothing storm, because that's what your implying. Your not a troll, but your sure sounding like one right now.


+1...or +5 like you have right now. :P
so we have TS Nate...and more and more do i get pissed with the NHC...Maria WILL strengthen further, not sure how far but she WILL, WILL strengthen to some extent. mark these words
1050. HCW
Grothar!!!!!!! Great to see you back! How are you doing?
can we all stop about nate its not comming to the conus neither is katia or maria next season please
I can't believe the next storm is Ophelia already.. Man what a pace we have been going at. Already 3 named storms into September and it's only the 7th.
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
can we all stop about nate its not comming to the conus neither is katia or maria next season please
But, people live in Mexico!
Quoting Grothar:


So was I. Thanks, Dak. So, nobody knows where these storms are going yet?


Only the trolls, Grothar. Only the trolls. ... Other than that, there have been some excellent guesses.
1056. HCW
Quoting MoltenIce:
I think they're still generating it.


It's been out for 30 minutes and I have already posted it twice :)
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWFEPS still show a wide range of possibilities from the eastern to central GOM.

which models will be the first ones to have the new info in them, the ones thatcome out at 7pm cst, or the ones that come out at 1am cst
Quoting SamWells:


Weather Underground spent a lot of money designing that "Hide" button for us, but yeah there's a lot of kids, punks, students, and trolls who make little messes everywhere like little puppy dogs.


Don't forget the adults, everybody seems to always blame the kids.
1059. dmdhdms
Quoting mobhurricane2011:
what time central timeis 00z, probably a dumb question but i dont know anything about zulu time


CDT is -5 from Zulu time.....When back to CST it will be -6.

Too hard of a turn west damn it

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I can't believe the next storm is Ophelia already.. Man what a pace we have been going at. Already 3 named storms into September and it's only the 7th.
might make it to z in 3 weeks and fortunatly the sterring patterns keep them all away from the conus thank god
the track with TS nate is all overe so even no its showing a MX hit that may chang when the storms be come stronger
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
can we all stop about nate its not comming to the conus neither is katia or maria next season please

I see an Earl, Igor, and maybe a weak version of something like Karl. Same pattern as last year. Nothing has changed.
Nate has the benefit of upward motion over the general area he's currently located in. The rest of the Atlantic...not so much.

1065. SQUAWK
Quoting Grothar:


And the thought just occurred to me that if you left, so would the IQ. (Only a true buddy could say that)


OK, now we know he is feeling better!!! LOL
Quoting RitaEvac:
Too hard of a turn west damn it





you need too chill out
GFS has been firm on the MX track for Nate. We'll see soon if it maintains that. I assume it will.
We got Nate
We got Grothar :-}

Gott sei dank das du wieder hier bist! Onhe dich sind die Kinder Frech.......
1069. 7544
ok nate goes into mex how does this effect maria now a dif trof to push her away now not the same as lee and katia models can drive u nuts lol
wow just yesterday they had maria as a cat1 by this saturday heading towards florida now its only gonna be a tropical storm heading right behind katia out to sea wow crazy forcasting
1071. Drakoen
Quoting mobhurricane2011:
which models will be the first ones to have the new info in them, the ones thatcome out at 7pm cst, or the ones that come out at 1am cst


7pm runs should have the data.
1072. HCW
Quoting Tazmanian:
the track with TS nate is all overe so even no its showing a MX hit that may chang when the storms be come stronger


The NHC track doesn't show a Mexican hit cause they don't have it making landfall
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I can't believe the next storm is Ophelia already.. Man what a pace we have been going at. Already 3 named storms into September and it's only the 7th.

Wow.

The season exploded.
Quoting Tazmanian:




you need too chill out

Yeah, when oaks and towering pines stop drying up & dying everywhere in his yard, maybe he'll consider taking your advice.
ok just because the nhc has nate forecasted to move CLOSER to mexico doesnt mean he will make landfall there. lets have a nice vote. i personally think nate will move into the northern gulf coast than mexico.
a: north gulf coast
b: mexcio
its a 50/50 shot because both scenarios are likely but its hard to determine which one
Quoting Drakoen:


7pm runs should have the data.
thank you
Quoting 7544:
ok nate goes into mex how does this effect maria now a dif trof to push her away now not the same as lee and katia models can drive u nuts lol
they have to blame it on something for another wrong forcast
1078. oakland
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Don't forget the adults, everybody seems to always blame the kids.


Most are kids......

Sadly it's rare to have kids like you and Levi. (sorry if I missed a few, I'm sure I did.)
Quoting HCW:


If these models show it tracking north why is the cone all going to the west? Just wondering.
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS APPARENTLY WELL ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE
IMAGES...BUT NOT REALLY.
Oh Avila, and your insulting, yet honest, ways. lol
RAIN RAIN GO AWAY!!.That's all we've been getting!.It won't stop.My poor lawn is drenced and instead of the rain going into the ground where it belongs it's staying on top of it.
Quoting HCW:


Lol. That certainly narrows it down. Nate is a giant spider.
Quoting watchdog40:


If these models show it tracking north why is the cone all going to the west? Just wondering.
ive been wondering that all season
18z NAM; 84 hours.

I think we all can agree that Avila <3. LOL.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
18z NAM; 84 hours.


You're using NAM as guidance?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yeah, when oaks and towering pines stop drying up & dying everywhere in his yard, maybe he'll consider taking your advice.




yup
1089. will40
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You're using NAM as guidance?


no he is just showing what the model is doing
1090. dmdhdms
Quoting Grothar:


And the thought just occurred to me that if you left, so would the IQ. (Only a true buddy could say that)


Velkommen tilbake. Glad å vite at du føler deg bedre. En hel haug med folk var ganske bekymret for deg.

Jeg hadde ikke glemme leksjon i dansk / norsk
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
cant believe all this excitment over a garabge nate storm and katia and maria fish storms next storm please
Your attitude is not contributing to this discussion.
Maybe Avila was wishing he was paid by discussion and advisory instead of by month...
1093. Drakoen
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You're using NAM as guidance?


Depends on what guidance you are looking for.
AL152011 - Tropical Storm NATE

2km Natural Color Imagery

Green Observed
NAM's a far better model than given credit for, as it correctly depicted several storms genesis this year. That's not to say its good on intensity.
Quoting Grothar:
Thanks, Nice being back. I can't leave you guys alone for a minute. Soon as I leave, I come back and see you tracking 3 storms. Well, looks like more coming. And thanks for all the kind words. I really mean it.



Welcome back Grothar! Hope you are feeling much better
Quoting Drakoen:


Depends on what guidance you are looking for.

What's it good for? Other than precip projections.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You're using NAM as guidance?


The NAM is a good model to use track for, especially with system close to home, like Nate.
1099. Drakoen
Quoting Cotillion:
Maybe Avila was wishing he was paid by discussion and advisory instead of by month...


Don' think he would be working there if he was only getting monthly checks LOL.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NAM's a far better model than given credit for, as it correctly depicted several storms genesis this year. That's not to say its good on intensity.

How it is on storm track?
do you really think the 7pm data will really telll us what will happen>? i think they will change things alot more after that
1102. Dakster
Quoting Grothar:


So was I. Thanks, Dak. So, nobody knows where these storms are going yet?


Only educated (or uneducated) guesses at the moment.
Quoting Drakoen:


Don' think he would be working there if he was only getting monthly checks LOL.


Depends how big they were...

(Maybe he just wants an extra bonus per advisory. ;) )
really now is there one model that is accurate?
1105. Drakoen
Quoting cat5hurricane:

What's it good for? Other than precip projections.


500mb pattern, Mid-latitude cyclone, and mesoscale forecasting.
Quoting will40:


no he is just showing what the model is doing

Yeah, what I said.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You're using NAM as guidance?
Not as track nor intensity guidance for Nate.

I do like to see what it has to display as far as the short-term synoptic pattern goes. Just posted the graphic because I thought it looked cool, lol.
1108. Patrap
,,Welcome Back there, er, Mr. Kotter...!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Too hard of a turn west damn it



I haven't read the discussion, yet, but I'd say low degree of confidence on track when the day 5 cone (circle) nearly covers Nate's current position.
Quoting Drakoen:


500mb pattern, Mid-latitude cyclone, and mesoscale forecasting.

Thanks Drak.
Quoting wxobsvps:


That steering will change. It's obvious by looking at the NHC Forecasted Track. Perhaps some fish/icebergs more than originally thought:



Scotland IS NOT a fish!!!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 21:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eighth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 20:37:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°18'N 92°36'W (20.3N 92.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 138 miles (223 km) to the WNW (283°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 91 nautical miles (105 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 243° at 36kts (From the WSW at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 200m (656ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 214m (702ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:17:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 26°C (79°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SE (136°) from the flight level center
nhc has nate a hurricane in 120 hours or less. how is nate going to become a hurricane if that killer dry air to the north is still there? also if u watched levi's tidbit he said if nate does move into the US that would increase maria's chances to recurve rather than nate moving into mexico which would not increase to the upcoming trough
Quoting UKHWatcher:


Scotland IS NOT a fish!!!


I second that!
Quoting washingtonian115:
RAIN RAIN GO AWAY!!.That's all we've been getting!.It won't stop.My poor lawn is drenced and instead of the rain going into the ground where it belongs it's staying on top of it.


Here in Texas we wish we had your problem... We need some rain bad!
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
nhc has nate a hurricane in 120 hours or less. how is nate going to become a hurricane if that killer dry air to the north is still there? also if u watched levi's tidbit he said if nate does move into the US that would increase maria's chances to recurve rather than nate moving into mexico which would not increase to the upcoming trough


As explained during the NHC discussion..
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.
MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.
Should see a 50 mph tropical system at 8PM...The discussion mentioned that the 5PM was set conservatively, and recon found believable 50-60 mph winds.

This thing is organizing pretty rapidly..
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
nhc has nate a hurricane in 120 hours or less. how is nate going to become a hurricane if that killer dry air to the north is still there? also if u watched levi's tidbit he said if nate does move into the US that would increase maria's chances to recurve rather than nate moving into mexico which would not increase to the upcoming trough


If there is low shear, the dry air can't get far into the storm. However, if wind shear is high, dry air can penetrate all the way through.

Nate is in a very low shear environment..
Quoting Dakster:


Only educated (or uneducated) guesses at the moment.

Katia appears to be headed towards Lerwick or Torshavn.....
Welcome back Grothar.
we are now on row 3


Ophelia (unused)
Philippe (unused)
Rina (unused)
Sean (unused)
Tammy (unused)
Vince (unused)
Whitney (unused)


7 name storms too go and whats see olny 2 too 3 more weeks lift in SEP and its olny SEP 7th


so we could see the W storm by SEP end if things really gos go nuts
afternoon all what a season, we're on 14 named storms at its not even peak season yet. amazing, haven't had much time to post as high school really getting into gear senior year c/o 2012!!! looking at Nate, I really see no reason in the next few days for it not to become a Category 1-2 hurricane as it heads towards anywhere from Mexico to Louisiana. I think though that texas is missing out on this one, and that the most likely area is around the Rio Grande for a landfall. i saw some ignorant statements on here earlier that this season is only full of garbage storms. well, that's because half of them formed off troughs. 2005 we often talk about Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Well.. do you ever talk about bret, franklin or any of the other short lived storms that year? People seem to forget this and make it seem like 28 of the storms we saw in 2005 where major Us landfalling hurricanes. It was a bad year, but it also had a lot of very weak and short lived system. We saw Irene already so I cant imagine anyone could be possibly stupid enough to call out a season so far.
1125. Dakster
Quoting basti11:




yep and it's moving into taco land..gulfcoast has no problems with nate..


Ohh brother... Here we go again...
Quoting basti11:




yep and it's moving into taco land..gulfcoast has no problems with nate..

My thinking at the moment is something almost similar to Karl. I don't think we'll see the RI associated with Nate as we did with Karl last year, but may very well come in as a minimal hurricane near Veracruz, Mexico, or somewhere to the north or south of there.
Quoting UKHWatcher:


Scotland IS NOT a fish!!!


Sorry. May canx a few tee times in Scotland.
Quoting basti11:




yep and it's moving into taco land..gulfcoast has no problems with nate..


this post is so full of concern for mexico and its people, because the OP knows that mexico already has a lot to worry about..

/sarcasm flag on.

people live there too. I have friends who's families live there. do they not exist or what?
Quoting UKHWatcher:


Scotland IS NOT a fish!!!


That is dying to be a punchline.

(Katia's remnants, being an extratropical system, are likely to cut across a large swathe of land. Possibly from the Faeroe Islands and the Norwegian west coast to possibly as far south as Lancashire and Yorkshire.)

UKMET say:

'For the start of the period northern and western Britain are likely to stay unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, occasionally heavy, with gales or severe gales likely in the northwest. Central, southern and eastern parts may see some rain at times, and will often be windy too.'

Probably a reference to Katia's remnants. A little early in the season for strong extratropical lows, but we've already had one this week with another in a couple of days.
1130. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Nate
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)






Thanks for the reminder about the Remote Linking being disabled.

It is easy to forget.
Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Nate
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)









your showing us a black box lol
1134. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:


CMC stands for 'Cannot Make Consensus'.
Quoting basti11:

yep and it's moving into taco land..gulfcoast has no problems with nate..



Okay my first post, lurking since 2006. Am I the only one who finds the above quote offensive?
1137. Gorty
Quoting Tazmanian:
we are now on row 3


Ophelia (unused)
Philippe (unused)
Rina (unused)
Sean (unused)
Tammy (unused)
Vince (unused)
Whitney (unused)


7 name storms too go and whats see olny 2 too 3 more weeks lift in SEP and its olny SEP 7th


so we could see the W storm by SEP end if things really gos go nuts


Yep and that will put us AHEAD of 2005, if I remembered correctly the W storm then was in Oct.
I see Nate has formed.But seeing how the pattern has been this year I wouldn't be Surprised if Nate goes into Mexico.
Quoting lickitysplit:
The TX wildfires seem to be the perfect convergence of bad policy, budget cuts and climate change. Scary.


Care to elaborate?
Quoting Patrap:


Just curious, out of all those conflicting models which one's tend to be the most reliable in 1) the Bay of Campeche 2) this early in formation 3) with so much dry air?
Quoting Cotillion:


That is dying to be a punchline.


Something like: "It just smells like one"?
Quoting Msuknotmet:


I second that!


Gonna get a bit of action I believe... Winds have been blowing from the West for 10 days and will contiue as you know and the water is building up in the Irish Sea, especially Irene's swell which is still evident. Tide on Monday when STS Katia is due to arrive is a 7.9m which is 0.7m below normal peak

- For those across the water we have an amazing tidal range here in Cumbria, up to 8metres between low and high tides. The pressure drop will raise the sea level an inch per millibar too. Also the sun and moon are practically opposite sides of the earth at that time. Yep, this will be interesting!
1144. WXHEAD
Quoting Tazmanian:



heading for MX


It would seem so...

One of the most dangerous natural phenomenon in the northern hemisphere headed for one of the most dangerous places in the northern hemisphere.
Quoting ltlurker:
Quoting basti11:

yep and it's moving into taco land..gulfcoast has no problems with nate..



Okay my first post, lurking since 2006. Am I the only one who finds the above quote offensive?


Actually several of us do. But as when a child misbehaves, the last thing you do is grant it any attention (positive or negative) as that will only reinforce the negative behavior.
Much as I love tracking and discussing tropical weather in the summer and the fall, the wintertime absence from the blog of insensitive bigots and ignorant trolls and just plain knuckle-dragging morons certainly makes this a more pleasant place to be during the off-season...
1147. DFWjc
Quoting lickitysplit:
The TX wildfires seem to be the perfect convergence of bad policy, budget cuts and climate change. Scary.


(loads up his troll gun)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
AL152011 - Tropical Storm NATE

2km Natural Color Imagery

Green Observed
Just got back from school. I see NHC still has it as an invest. Im guessing Navy renumbered?
1149. Grothar
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Welcome back Grothar.


Thanks, NOLA. Hope Nate keeps away from you all.
Quoting ltlurker:
Quoting basti11:

yep and it's moving into taco land..gulfcoast has no problems with nate..



Okay my first post, lurking since 2006. Am I the only one who finds the above quote offensive?

I completely agree with you.
1151. HCW
Mobile NWS

.LONG TERM...[SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
NUMBERS BUT THERE IS A LOW WHICH CAME INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS A POOR HANDLE ON THE
PATH OF THE FEATURE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL OUTPUTS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER TIME WITH FORECASTS PATH EACH MODEL HAS CALCULATED.
THE NAM...UK MET...AND GEM ARE BUNCHING TOGETHER ON SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER THE GFS MODEL DIFFERS WITH THE OTHERS IN THAT IT
IS GOING FOR BROWNSVILLE OR POINTS SOUTH. THE EURO HAS JUST COME ON
BOARD WITH THIS. WE WERE CONSIDERING WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF A VORTEX
WAS BOGUSED BY NCEP INTO THE GFS IN THIS GYRE...AND IF THAT WOULD
KICK THE GFS INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE FIRST THREE. HARD TO SAY
DEFINITIVELY. THERE IS AN OPEN CELL CU FIELD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
SHOWING AN INFLOW. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN THEIR HANDLING OF AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTLANT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. SO TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE CALCULATING
THE LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ECMWF HAS IT REACHING
THE LA GULF COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ASSERTS A WEAK
TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE PUSHING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE MEXICAN
COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE. STAY TUNED...IT COULD BE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Just got back from school. I see NHC still has it as an invest. Im guessing Navy renumbered?

...TROPICAL STORM NATE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MEXICO...
4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 7
Location: 20.2°N 92.4°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: ESE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
1153. Patrap
Quoting dogsgomoo:


Just curious, out of all those conflicting models which one's tend to be the most reliable in 1) the Bay of Campeche 2) this early in formation 3) with so much dry air?


One looks for consensus or agreement between the spread. We a long ways from that right now.

All Models have a role,,when they agree with a certainty among um,, pay attention.

Trends will develop,,but its gonna take 60-72 hours before they know with some clarity where Nate is headed.
The NHC hasn't been that good with intensity forecast this year.In 2008 they almost nailed every storm.I know there's little skill in that area.But in other years the NHC can be very good.
katia and marie are so exciting but making me dizzy going around in circles
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

...TROPICAL STORM NATE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MEXICO...
4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 7
Location: 20.2°N 92.4°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: ESE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Yah i missed that, im used to seeing the graphic on the NHC page and did not scrool down lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Should see a 50 mph tropical system at 8PM...The discussion mentioned that the 5PM was set conservatively, and recon found believable 50-60 mph winds.

This thing is organizing pretty rapidly..

TAWX13, this may be a stupid question, and I think i know the answer but I am going to make sure.
Wouldn't a deeper system be more likely to go poleward? I am thinking that this is especially true due to the fact that there is still a trailing weakness over ex-Lee
TIA
1158. will40
Quoting DFWjc:


(loads up is troll gun)


and feeds him for quoting him
1159. Caner
Quoting Patrap:


One looks for consensus or agreement between the spread. We a long ways from that right now.

All Models have a role,,when they agree with a certainty among um,, pay attention.

Trends will develop,,but its gonna take 60-72 hours before they know with some clarity where Nate is headed.


Also, the models with the best data, e.g. the latest hurricane hunter run, would be available till 8 pm tonight.
Quoting ltlurker:
Quoting basti11:

yep and it's moving into taco land..gulfcoast has no problems with nate..



Okay my first post, lurking since 2006. Am I the only one who finds the above quote offensive?


Nope.
1161. Swede38
Quoting Muffelchen:

Katia looappears to be headed towards Lerwick or Torshavn.....


Lived in Llanbedr

i thought all the models had marie becomming a cat 1 maybe a 2 by this saturday and comming towards florida? now its only gonna be a minimul tropical storm and making the fish curve out to sea kinda sounds like this whole season so far
Grothar, welcome back!

I'm mostly a lurker, but I do enjoy your comments.

Keep 'em coming!
Quoting fmhurricane2009:

TAWX13, this may be a stupid question, and I think i know the answer but I am going to make sure.
Wouldn't a deeper system be more likely to go poleward? I am thinking that this is especially true due to the fact that there is still a trailing weakness over ex-Lee
TIA
No your right deeper storms tend to go Poleward
Quoting HCW:
Mobile NWS

.LONG TERM...[SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
NUMBERS BUT THERE IS A LOW WHICH CAME INTO THE PICTURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS A POOR HANDLE ON THE
PATH OF THE FEATURE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL OUTPUTS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER TIME WITH FORECASTS PATH EACH MODEL HAS CALCULATED.
THE NAM...UK MET...AND GEM ARE BUNCHING TOGETHER ON SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER THE GFS MODEL DIFFERS WITH THE OTHERS IN THAT IT
IS GOING FOR BROWNSVILLE OR POINTS SOUTH. THE EURO HAS JUST COME ON
BOARD WITH THIS. WE WERE CONSIDERING WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF A VORTEX
WAS BOGUSED BY NCEP INTO THE GFS IN THIS GYRE...AND IF THAT WOULD
KICK THE GFS INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE FIRST THREE. HARD TO SAY
DEFINITIVELY. THERE IS AN OPEN CELL CU FIELD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
SHOWING AN INFLOW. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN THEIR HANDLING OF AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTLANT INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. SO TO SUMMARIZE...THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE CALCULATING
THE LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ECMWF HAS IT REACHING
THE LA GULF COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ASSERTS A WEAK
TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE PUSHING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE MEXICAN
COAST BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE. STAY TUNED...IT COULD BE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.


Ditto. Exactly what I was thinking. Huh?
1167. Patrap
I'll have a Mctavish on the rocks , please
Quoting UKHWatcher:


Gonna get a bit of action I believe... Winds have been blowing from the West for 10 days and will contiue as you know and the water is building up in the Irish Sea, especially Irene's swell which is still evident. Tide on Monday when STS Katia is due to arrive is a 7.9m which is 0.7m below normal peak

- For those across the water we have an amazing tidal range here in Cumbria, up to 8metres between low and high tides. The pressure drop will raise the sea level an inch per millibar too. Also the sun and moon are practically opposite sides of the earth at that time. Yep, this will be interesting!


I noticed over the past couple of days with these winds that it has felt muggy, too. Monday should be interesting!
1169. DFWjc
Quoting will40:


and feeds him for quoting him


Not only will i quote, but will squash with facts. Two things that made the fires were NOT budget cuts, but fires that didn't get contained by human beings (cigs and campfires) and the other by lightning. My father is battling these things with other brave firefighters, tired of politics being dragged into this!
nate is really geting its act toger
models say one thing the forcast ses another all season long and changes hourly
1172. Patrap
Quoting Neapolitan:
Much as I love tracking and discussing tropical weather in the summer and the fall, the wintertime absence from the blog of insensitive bigots and ignorant trolls and just plain knuckle-dragging morons certainly makes this a more pleasant place to be during the off-season...




+1000

(Unless I'm one of the Knuckle-dragging morons)
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
models say one thing the forcast ses another all season long and changes hourly


RE: 1171

Let's see you do better.

All you do is repeat the same thing over and over. Why don't you tell me exactly what's gonna happen???
1175. will40
Quoting DFWjc:


Not only will i quote, but will squash with facts. Two things that made the fires were NOT budget cuts, but fires that didn't get contained by human beings and the other by lightning. My father is battling these things with other brave firefighters, tired of politics being dragged into this!


well it does make the ignore feature useless just quote the comment number would help
Quoting DFWjc:


Not only will i quote, but will squash with facts. Two things that made the fires were NOT budget cuts, but fires that didn't get contained by human beings and the other by lightning. My father is battling these things with other brave firefighters, tired of politics being dragged into this!
I'm tired of Freaking politics as a whole.I'm tired of hearing the words "Budget cuts".I'm freaking tired of all of it.I'm tired of hearing the word Texas.So I come here to get away from the crap.
1177. DFWjc
Quoting will40:


well it does make the ignore feature useless just quote the comment number would help


duly noted....
Quoting Tazmanian:
we are now on row 3


Ophelia (unused)
Philippe (unused)
Rina (unused)
Sean (unused)
Tammy (unused)
Vince (unused)
Whitney (unused)


7 name storms too go and whats see olny 2 too 3 more weeks lift in SEP and its olny SEP 7th


so we could see the W storm by SEP end if things really gos go nuts
what matters which ones names will be retired
Quoting fmhurricane2009:

TAWX13, this may be a stupid question, and I think i know the answer but I am going to make sure.
Wouldn't a deeper system be more likely to go poleward? I am thinking that this is especially true due to the fact that there is still a trailing weakness over ex-Lee
TIA


Yes, a stronger system will move more poleward.

Bermuda
Now

Mostly Cloudy
Temperature 82 F
Feels Like 90 F
Wind(mph) 21
1181. will40
Quoting DFWjc:


duly noted....


thanks man
1182. Patrap
Quoting will40:


well it does make the ignore feature useless just quote the comment number would help


Indeed,,

I liked it better when we all had to copy and italicize the quote manually.


Too much quoting,,drives a man to drink mo Fresca.

Slu-urrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrp.. .



..scuse, me
Quoting Patrap:
Wow!.The "T" state seems to be putting out it's own sheild.Keep it coming T.
Quoting aprinz1979:


RE: 1171

Let's see you do better.

All you do is repeat the same thing over and over. Why don't you tell me exactly what's gonna happen???
LIKE I SAID IN THE BEGIINING OF THE YEAR WATCH FOR ALOT OF GARABGE STORMS AND FISH CURVE STORMS I THINK IVE BEEN PRETTY DARN ACCURATE I CALLED MARIA TO BE NOTHING ALSO LIKE KATIA AND EMILY AND DON
1185. Caner
Quoting ltlurker:
Quoting basti11:




Okay my first post, lurking since 2006. Am I the only one who finds the above quote offensive?


Why are you offended by tacos? You racist against Mexicans or something?

;^)

Just use iggy or deal with it man, if you hadn't reposted it, i would never have even seen it.
So I come here to get away from the crap



Let us know how that works for ya!
Quoting Patrap:


Patrap,
What do you think this will do with Nate?
1189. WXHEAD
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


this post is so full of concern for mexico and its people, because the OP knows that mexico already has a lot to worry about..

/sarcasm flag on.

people live there too. I have friends who's families live there. do they not exist or what?


It looks like Nate is head for the middle of Tamaulipas State, north of Vera Cruz. If you know anything about that area and have friends or family in that area, you will be more concerned about what the "Los Zetas" are doing and also what the Gulf Cartel is doing against them and how to stay out of the crossfire. If you have anything of value the corrupt police haven't taken, you might want to hold onto it during the hurricane. At least you have a fighting chance to live during one and hang onto to your stuff..
Maria looking much more likely to being a fish storm. And not too strong. The area in the BOC will probably be a weak system, not past TS status and just be a big rainmaker for someone.
Quoting Patrap:
DOOM up north for Nate, iv never seen them go white for dry air.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




+1000

(Unless I'm one of the Knuckle-dragging morons)


Uuuhhh....what you said.:^/
Quoting hypercaneDOOMyGLOOM:
Maria looking much more likely to being a fish storm. And not too strong. The area in the BOC will probably be a weak system, not past TS status and just be a big rainmaker for someone.
did i not say that 2 days ago hmmmmmmm
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
i got banned with 5 other names on here for just being right with 5 other storms this year



You sound familiar. Cloudtop or something like that right?
Quoting WXHEAD:


It looks like Nate is head for the middle of Tamaulipas State, north of Vera Cruz. If you know anything about that area and have friends or family in that area . . . ..


Would you have friends or family in that area?
Quoting P451:


You like the winter blogs because they are dominated by AGW discussion.

And those, sir, are filled with insensitive bigots, ignorant trolls, and an endless stream of knuckle-dragging morons.



Makes my head hurt thinking about it.
Quoting UKHWatcher:


Gonna get a bit of action I believe... Winds have been blowing from the West for 10 days and will contiue as you know and the water is building up in the Irish Sea, especially Irene's swell which is still evident. Tide on Monday when STS Katia is due to arrive is a 7.9m which is 0.7m below normal peak

- For those across the water we have an amazing tidal range here in Cumbria, up to 8metres between low and high tides. The pressure drop will raise the sea level an inch per millibar too. Also the sun and moon are practically opposite sides of the earth at that time. Yep, this will be interesting!


What will be interesting is if it restrengthens. It has a fairly strong jet stream in its path which may help to that end. The waters aren't terribly cold. It is going to be moving at quite some speed, respectable wheels.

It may also end up interacting with another respectable low to its northeast as well depending on how quick it moves out of the way.



Always interesting to see the names crop up these days.
Quoting reedzone:
I don't think Avila put much thought or effort into this forecast at all..

.
If I didn't know you for years I'd think you were kidding. Didn't give it much thought or effort? You talk like he wrote it on a napkin while he was at lunch with burger juice dribbling down his chin. And that one of America's finest forecasters had somehow overlooked what a part-time observer had seen. I'll take his forecast over anybody here, thank you.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
So I come here to get away from the crap



Let us know how that works for ya!
Well it's true.Can't they talk about anything these days without putting "P" into it?.At least this place tries to talk about weather most of the time.Even though the trolls are in full force I'm still enjoying reading the comments.
1204. FLdewey
There's your problem...

A 500-ton crane doing repair work collapsed Wednesday at the Washington National Cathedral amid thunderstorms and driving rain, damaging at least one nearby building and several vehicles but sparing the church.









(All photos AP)
I see more trolls here than another forum (a video gaming forum...somewhat less matured) I frequent...
Most of the models this afternoon continue to suggest that Nate will be a relatively small storm in regards to diameter. We will have to entertain the idea that this storm could end up looking like some of the "vortcanes" we've seen over the past few years...
1209. Patrap
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Patrap,
What do you think this will do with Nate?


Itsa gonna fade,the coolth air ,,lotsa TCHP out there as well.

Upper Air is Good downstream..but motion is going to determine "where she Blow's" though.









1210. DFWjc
Quoting daddyjames:


Would you have friends or family in that area?


My girlfriend's family is from there...
the term fish is over used becareful we should all remember ike! something of a change in the pattern!
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If I didn't know you for years I'd think you were kidding. Didn't give it much thought or effort? You talk like he wrote it on a napkin while he was at lunch with burger juice dribbling down his chin. I'll take his forecast over anybody here, thank you.
Cosmic. How do you think I used to get phone numbers before cell phones. Sure, writing on the back on gum wrappers works, but...uhh....nevermind. Hey, you goin' on up to Aqua's ranch later. I hear she helping sky mount a huge moosehead directly above the dance floor. We can dance to the strobe lights and eat brownies together. At least that's the word...so come to Jericho later.
the atlantic now has alot of cold water all around because of the past 4 huge storms and that will help to keep any future storms small
Quoting P451:


You like the winter blogs because they are dominated by AGW discussion.

And those, sir, are filled with insensitive bigots, ignorant trolls, and an endless stream of knuckle-dragging morons.


As i was saying... ;-)
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
i got banned with 5 other names on here for just being right with 5 other storms this year
Now this was funny.I even dared to plus it.This comment made my day.
1217. Patrap


NHC Advisory : 01
Name : NATE
Type : TROPICAL STORM
Position : 20.2, -92.4
Heading (degrees) : 110
Motion Speed (kts) : 2
Central Pressure (mb) : 1004
Maximum Sustained Winds (kts) : 40
Maximum Wind Gusts (kts) : 50
Valid time : 21:00:00 GMT, September 07, 2011

My forecast for Saturday...lol
Saturday
85 | 76 °F
T-storms
50% chance of precipitation
Tropical Storm Maria
Quoting BullShoalsAR:
TROLL ALERT!!! HurricanePookie


Um, no offense, but I'm not sure what gives you that impression.

I'm just a newbie, living in a hurricane prone zone, trying to pick up a little knowledge.
Quoting Patrap:


One looks for consensus or agreement between the spread. We a long ways from that right now.

All Models have a role,,when they agree with a certainty among um,, pay attention.

Trends will develop,,but its gonna take 60-72 hours before they know with some clarity where Nate is headed.

Funny, this is what I'm listening to right now:
"Everything is divided /Nothing is complete / Everything looks impressive / Do not be deceived"

I'm starting to understand that there is a lot of nuance and uncertainty regarding models. Not just spatial but temporal.

Is there a trend for some models to be more historically accurate (or useful, i guess) depending on the different variables at play for a given storm? Like, are some models better for forecasting if, for example it's a storm in the GOM compared to ones in the Mid Atlantic? (Sorry if that doesn't make much sense.)
Quoting DFWjc:


My girlfriend's family is from there...


And are things that bad in that region of Mexico? Was just wondering where WXHEAD is getting this information.
1222. P451
Quoting Cotillion:


What will be interesting is if it restrengthens. It has a fairly strong jet stream in its path which may help to that end. The waters aren't terribly cold. It is going to be moving at quite some speed, respectable wheels.

It may also end up interacting with another respectable low to its northeast as well depending on how quick it moves out of the way.



Always interesting to see the names crop up these days.


Doesn't Europe name it's lows? Maybe France? I know someone does...depending on the maps I try to find during the winter.
1223. snotly
it would be cool if this site had election boards, ( members elected by other members, to be part of a specific blog)... sort of like the tropics chat but a blog where the users choose who gets to partake. It might get rid of some trolls... if you have to get voted into a specific discussion by a majority vote.
1224. DFWjc
Quoting daddyjames:


And are things that bad in that region of Mexico? Was just wondering where WXHEAD is getting this information.


No, but if they get a lot of rain, it tends to flood there easily..
Quoting P451:


Doesn't Europe name it's lows? Maybe France? I know someone does...depending on the maps I try to find during the winter.


The Free University of Berlin through its 'Adopt-a-Vortex' program. Link

You know, that very moment I was looking to see if they would rename it or keep the name Katia.

Spooky.
Model-wise, NAM is looking optimistic.
Quoting FLdewey:
There's your problem...

A 500-ton crane doing repair work collapsed Wednesday at the Washington National Cathedral amid thunderstorms and driving rain, damaging at least one nearby building and several vehicles but sparing the church.









(All photos AP)
This is not a surprise.At 10:00 am this moring it looked like it was 9:00 at night.Then on top of that my daughter said while at school the power was out and everything went dark.The power is on at her school but those storms have been unkind to our area.
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Um, no offense, but I'm not sure what gives you that impression.

I'm just a newbie, living in a hurricane prone zone, trying to pick up a little knowledge.


I believe that. Trolls never state their location.
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Um, no offense, but I'm not sure what gives you that impression.

I'm just a newbie, living in a hurricane prone zone, trying to pick up a little knowledge.


You're not alone, It seems like lately, the newbies that come on are being accused of being trolls. For me, just disagreeing that Maria wasn't going to explode into a cat5 and incinerate the east coast got me labeled a troll a day or so ago.
Quoting P451:


Doesn't Europe name it's lows? Maybe France? I know someone does...depending on the maps I try to find during the winter.

I think they name windstorms,, not sure if it's all of them or just the noticeable ones.
wats to become of the next few waves off africa
I dont trust the intensity models for Maria. It's in a favorable environment for intensification right now and will become a hurricane in less than 5 days than the model and NHC forecasts which still keep it as a TS by 5 days.
Quoting Swede38:


Lived in Llanbedr


From Pembroke - now livin in't Yorkshire. From God's country to God's own county....Not far then!
Quoting DFWjc:


No, but if they get a lot of rain, it tends to flood there easily..


LOL - yes a little familiar, since WXHEAD made such a strong statement regarding the cartels, sounded like he/she may have some experience. Was just seeing what they really knew about Mexico and the situation down there . . .
Quoting Chicklit:
Model-wise, it looks like Nate will go anywhere but Texas.



Stupid Spaghetti Models. :-(
Just wanted to post a link for my fellow Texans (and any other interested part) that explains why we are having such a drought.

When will the terrible texas drought end
18GFS real helpful.

Takes Nate south or sw after a few days and dissipates in MX
To add, I seem to recall the Norwegian met service also have a habit of naming their lows as well, I'm not sure if they still do.

FU of Berlin also name the highs.

Not all of the European met services pay attention to the names, though. I don't believe the UKMET do.
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, NOLA. Hope Nate keeps away from you all.
Welcome back Grothar. Sure hope you are feeling better. You had us scared there old man.
1240. rv1pop
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...You would think meteorologists at a professional weather agency would have more of a resource base than we do, thus having the knowledge to watch the ATCF files.
They probably are repeating a forecast they had on satellite hours ago. Depending on your time zone, they might be live, but not usually. Advertising $$$$$$.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I believe that. Trolls never state their location.
But we all know that it's under a bridge or in a cave.Lol.
Quoting Muffelchen:

From Pembroke - now livin in't Yorkshire. From God's country to God's own county....Not far then!


My neck o' the woods.
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
the atlantic now has alot of cold water all around because of the past 4 huge storms and that will help to keep any future storms small
wow so how about you post some proof to that!! like some charts with sst temps to substantiat that claim
Getting kind of late in the season for Cape Verde storms becoming East coast threats.

My handle btw, is a satire against the constant gloom and doom predictions on this blog. Although there are a number of good bloggers here who know what they are talking about.
1245. FLdewey
Quoting snotly:
it would be cool if this site had election boards, ( members elected by other members, to be part of a specific blog)... sort of like the tropics chat but a blog where the users choose who gets to partake. It might get rid of some trolls... if you have to get voted into a specific discussion by a majority vote.


That would not be cool. Take a look at the storm chaser boards like ChasersForum - it just turns them into snotty clique infested boards where everybody is ticked at everybody. The next thing you know people who have differing views are not allowed to post.

High school is over.

Actually, now that I think of it the majority of the board is probably in high school, so it could just work. ;-)
1246. DFWjc
Quoting daddyjames:


LOL - yes a little familiar, since WXHEAD made such a strong statement regarding the cartels, sounded like he/she may have some experience. Was just seeing what they really knew about Mexico and the situation down there . . .


Ah i see. Plus it's kind of a bonus for me, she accidently told her parents that I'm into weather. So anytime something is near by they always ask me about it, it drives my gf insane, LOL!!
phish is going to do a benefit concert for the vermont disaster cnn just mentioned that
1248. DFWjc
Quoting washingtonian115:
But we all know that it's under a bridge or in a cave.Lol.


so where in WA are ya from?
1250. FLdewey
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is not a surprise.At 10:00 am this moring it looked like it was 9:00 at night.Then on top of that my daughter said while at school the power was out and everything went dark.The power is on at her school but those storms have been unkind to our area.


Yikes... wrong time to have a 35 story crane whipping in the breeze.
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, NOLA. Hope Nate keeps away from you all.
Good to see you back Grothar.Prayers have been going up for you.I dont know the situation but God knows and thats all that matters.I pray for your healing.Sorry if I got off topic but Grothar is a member of our family here at WU.
could anyone spot maria's center precisely?
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Um, no offense, but I'm not sure what gives you that impression.

I'm just a newbie, living in a hurricane prone zone, trying to pick up a little knowledge.

Well, the one who called you a troll may called you a troll because older users tend to call new users a troll if you're new and discussing climate change topics. Actually the troll:
1.posts harassing images of private parts
2. posts useless topics (in here, climate change talk is ok as long as it does not contain controversy)
3. swears heavily
4.blames with lies that the troll didn't do it and a good user did it ("it" is either hacking, etc.
Quoting hypercaneDOOMyGLOOM:
Getting kind of late in the season for Cape Verde storms becoming East coast threats.

My handle btw, is a satire against the constant gloom and doom predictions on this blog. Although there are a number of good bloggers here who know what they are talking about.
yep cape verde is over for the conus
1255. Patrap
Quoting scoobert:



Stupid Spaghetti Models. :-(


Yeah, the puter models in thelook more optimistic.

LinkWU if you click on Severe Weather tab then Tropical & Hurrianes, you can see recent updates.

I'm starting a channeling effort to strengthen Nate and push it north to Texas. A big dry state needs a big wet storm and although the coastline will certainly take a beating, I believe the people will hail Nate's generous bounty of rain as either an act of god or channeling or maybe both.
Any chance Nate could have a similar track to Tropical Storm Hermine in 2010? Any chance for rain at all in Texas would tickle me pink :)
Quoting Cotillion:
To add, I seem to recall the Norwegian met service also have a habit of naming their lows as well, I'm not sure if they still do.

FU of Berlin also name the highs.

Not all of the European met services pay attention to the names, though. I don't believe the UKMET do.


See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_windstorm
Quoting DFWjc:


Ah i see. Plus it's kind of a bonus for me, she accidently told her parents that I'm into weather. So anytime something is near by they always ask me about it, it drives my gf insane, LOL!!


LOLO - she's jealous because her parents want to talk to you? Well, I'll let you get back to the weather so you can keep her parents well informed. be careful, one wrong forecast and the folks may be against you! JK. ;D
18Z GFS Strenghtens MARIA as she approaches and moves over the N Leewards.

LOOK
Quoting islander101010:
phish is going to do a benefit concert for the vermont disaster cnn just mentioned that


Ironic?
Quoting DFWjc:


so where in WA are ya from?
No.I'm in Washginton D.C.The Capitol of the country.I'm in N.W D.C
1263. P451
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

?


LOL

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


I believe that. Trolls never state their location.


Not sure if that's sarcasm or not (no flag!), and again, not trying to be a jerk. I live in St. Petersburg, FL (I do show that information in my profile). I don't tend to make a lot of predictions, as I will admit to knowing far less about weather than most people on this blog (Trolls excluded). Mostly I just read, and ask questions, if I have any that aren't too stupid to ask.

Have actually read the blog for the past two hurricane seasons (not including this one), but only signed up recently for an account. Have been a little more active than recently because, well, there just seem to be more storms out there that look like they have the potential to hit Florida, although maybe not the Tampa/St. Pete area directly.

And now, back to the weather....Anyone know what happened to that little yellow circle the NHC had east of Puerto Rico this morning? Is it gone for good?

Magnolia fire still going strong NW of Houston. I can see the smoke from my building still, might have even gotten bigger with a couple of other pillars of smoke rising into the horizon in different places.
Latest from Joe Bastardi:
Joe Bastardi
Katia on 19z run in close enough for TS conditions cape cod and islands
1268. DFWjc
Quoting washingtonian115:
No.I'm in Washginton D.C.The Capitol of the country.I'm in N.W D.C


ahhh, i was hoping you were from state, that's cool tho!
Quoting P451:


LOL


I think the NHC did that on purpose XD
1270. Thrawst
Got a question... if the NHC says that dry air won't be infiltrating into the system anytime soon, if at all. Would the system intensifying to say a Cat. 1 hurricane "suck in" dry air.. and basically choking itself ? :P TIA :)
1271. Patrap
Maria






Quoting FLdewey:


Yikes... wrong time to have a 35 story crane whipping in the breeze.
Rain has also been a problem.The rain water is not going inside my lawn.It's standing on top of it.
Quoting WeatherInterest:
Latest from Joe Bastardi:
Joe Bastardi
Katia on 19z run in close enough for TS conditions cape cod and islands

19z run?
I'm certain if I came under the handle "hurricaneseasonisover" that would be enough to get me banned my first minute.....lol
1275. FLdewey
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Not sure if that's sarcasm or not (no flag!), and again, not trying to be a jerk. I live in St. Petersburg, FL (I do show that information in my profile). I don't tend to make a lot of predictions, as I will admit to knowing far less about weather than most people on this blog (Trolls excluded). Mostly I just read, and ask questions, if I have any that aren't too stupid to ask.

Have actually read the blog for the past two hurricane seasons (not including this one), but only signed up recently for an account. Have been a little more active than recently because, well, there just seem to be more storms out there that look like they have the potential to hit Florida, although maybe not the Tampa/St. Pete area directly.

And now, back to the weather....Anyone know what happened to that little yellow circle the NHC had east of Puerto Rico this morning? Is it gone for good?



Not to mention 20 posts in 3 months isn't really troll style.

Pookie is good... be nice peoples.
1276. DFWjc
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
well if you listen to the weather tv they tell you that marie is not getting big like they thought because theres alot of cooler water from irene and katia bozo


(coughs) minus the bozo part, that's a blog infraction, we frown on name calling....
Quoting daddyjames:


LOL - yes a little familiar, since WXHEAD made such a strong statement regarding the cartels, sounded like he/she may have some experience. Was just seeing what they really knew about Mexico and the situation down there . . .


Los Zetas called Mexico's most dangerous drug cartel

Los Zetas are blamed for last week's brutal killings of the police chief in the southern Mexican city of Veracruz, his wife and four children. The way in which the killers carried out their crime sent a message.
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Not sure if that's sarcasm or not (no flag!), and again, not trying to be a jerk. I live in St. Petersburg, FL (I do show that information in my profile). I don't tend to make a lot of predictions, as I will admit to knowing far less about weather than most people on this blog (Trolls excluded). Mostly I just read, and ask questions, if I have any that aren't too stupid to ask.

Have actually read the blog for the past two hurricane seasons (not including this one), but only signed up recently for an account. Have been a little more active than recently because, well, there just seem to be more storms out there that look like they have the potential to hit Florida, although maybe not the Tampa/St. Pete area directly.

And now, back to the weather....Anyone know what happened to that little yellow circle the NHC had east of Puerto Rico this morning? Is it gone for good?


Here's to do when someone accuses you as a troll:
1. ignore him
2. don't report him unless he's being a troll
1279. Thrawst
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

?


It's gonna stay in that exact location for 5 days with extreme confidence. No cone needed :P
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

19z run?


grasping at straws
1281. FLdewey
Quoting washingtonian115:
Rain has also been a problem.The rain water is not going inside my lawn.It's standing on top of it.


That's a good point. I wonder if the ground under the one of the outriggers gave way.
Quoting datasmasher:
Just wanted to post a link for my fellow Texans (and any other interested part) that explains why we are having such a drought.

When will the terrible texas drought end


I read that this morning as well. Eric B is pretty good with the facts. It is VERY depressing to see that it might be another 6 to 12 months of this.
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Not sure if that's sarcasm or not (no flag!), and again, not trying to be a jerk. I live in St. Petersburg, FL (I do show that information in my profile). I don't tend to make a lot of predictions, as I will admit to knowing far less about weather than most people on this blog (Trolls excluded). Mostly I just read, and ask questions, if I have any that aren't too stupid to ask.

Have actually read the blog for the past two hurricane seasons (not including this one), but only signed up recently for an account. Have been a little more active than recently because, well, there just seem to be more storms out there that look like they have the potential to hit Florida, although maybe not the Tampa/St. Pete area directly.

And now, back to the weather....Anyone know what happened to that little yellow circle the NHC had east of Puerto Rico this morning? Is it gone for good?



that yellow circle was a lowpressure area, and it was being sheared to death by Katia. allit is right now is a cluster of NNW-bound squall lines, so no worries except rainfall around the Antilles area
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Um, no offense, but I'm not sure what gives you that impression.

I'm just a newbie, living in a hurricane prone zone, trying to pick up a little knowledge.
I think he's warning you that you quoted a troll.
Quoting whattheheckhappened:
yep cape verde is over for the conus
around the 15 sept any storm that develops nearby those islands dont affect the conus but the weak twaves can still be a threat down stream
Just completed all the graphics updated on MARIA and NATE on the Website for you all......its ready to go!
1289. DFWjc
Quoting uptxcoast:


I read that this morning as well. Eric B is pretty good with the facts. It is VERY depressing to see that it might be another 6 to 12 months of this.


What I'm more afraid of is the harsh winter North Texas is going to get from this...February was more than brutal enough...
1290. Patrap
TS Nate


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



1291. DFWjc
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just completed all the graphics updated on MARIA and NATE on the Website for you all......its ready to go!


Thank you Tampa!
I think we should all be thankful for AGW. Without its effect of lowering the amount of named systems, think where we'd be right now.

Perhaps into Pig Latin by now.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

?


Tropical Storm BEaaOf*B! Man, that was one storm.

The NHC has given an insight into what they'll do in the event of exhausting the Greek alphabet.

Start using Wingdings.
Quoting FLdewey:


Not to mention 20 posts in 3 months isn't really troll style.

Pookie is good... be nice peoples.


Trolls typically cannot spell let alone put together intelligent paragraphs.
Avila's 5pm discussion on Maria cracks me up!

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS APPARENTLY WELL ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT NOT REALLY.

THEREAFTER...IT IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

Quoting NHCaddict:
Avila's 5pm discussion on Maria cracks me up!

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS APPARENTLY WELL ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT NOT REALLY.

THEREAFTER...IT IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

yep and just like last year no change in the pattern season over
1298. Patrap
I met Avila here during a Cuban US Hurricane Conference,,the day after QuiKscat Failed and we had a interesting conversation over a few,,er,, refreshments after.


He's a colorful,knowledgeable guy.
1299. DFWjc
Quoting whattheheckhappened:


and back to weather related topics please....

Quoting whattheheckhappened:
if trolls no nothing and are always wrong what does that make 99% of the people on here?> (trollers)
alot smarter than you and your comments
1303. Patrap
Anyone familiar with the Houston area might find this interesting. This is the newest evacuation map that covers northwestern Harris County, South West Montgomery County and South East Grimes County. Looking at the map, Houston would be about 30 miles to the South East.

Link

Quoting FLdewey:


That's a good point. I wonder if the ground under the one of the outriggers gave way.


Probably a computer malfunction.
Quoting HurricanePookie:


Not sure if that's sarcasm or not (no flag!)


Wasn't being sarcastic. Welcome.
Quoting DFWjc:


Thank you Tampa!


HOpe it helps.......gotta run out to the HARD ROCK for dinner and some gaming fun.......BBL!
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
new blog


Where?
Texas Fires
1311. will40
Quoting DFWjc:


and back to weather related topics please....



now thats the way to quote a troll good job
Quoting miguel617:


Where?
Sorry... that post was a mistake
Quoting DFWjc:


What I'm more afraid of is the harsh winter North Texas is going to get from this...February was more than brutal enough...


Let's just put our heads together and send Nate to Texas.
Of course, there are no guarantees, but it's worth a try.
Damn awful what is happening there right now.

1315. DFWjc
Quoting will40:




again back to weather related topics, LOL :P
Quoting FLdewey:


That's a good point. I wonder if the ground under the one of the outriggers gave way.
It feels like a sponge when you walk on the ground.Last time it was this wet my foot feel though and created a whole in the ground.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Los Zetas called Mexico's most dangerous drug cartel

Los Zetas are blamed for last week's brutal killings of the police chief in the southern Mexican city of Veracruz, his wife and four children. The way in which the killers carried out their crime sent a message.


Thanks PI.
Yes the situation in Mexico is pretty unstable right now (to say the least). Wasn't aware that the violence was spreading southwards . . . with the exception of Michoacán.
1318. h0db
Quoting whattheheckhappened:

same troll, different day.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just completed all the graphics updated on MARIA and NATE on the Website for you all......its ready to go!


Sometimes you should link us to your site, lol.
Oh boyyy...

1321. HCW
1322. DFWjc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sometimes you should link us to your site, lol.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TampaSpin/show.h tml
Link
Well, the NHC is going with a hurricane for the mexican coast... I wonder how their forecast accuracy will be with this system.
1324. JNCali
I need another button.. maybe one with an "S" on it...
does the euro model run 2 times daily or 4 times?
DFWjc

You mention the "THE HILL" earlier. Best food around.
When I took my wife there she was looking for a big hill. LOL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sometimes you should link us to your site, lol.


Ya right.......POOF I WOULD GO! Sorry can't do that on the main blog. Many Know it tho.....I just can't post it sorry!
1329. dacajun
It's like that dry air coming from Texas wrapped around Nate and made a spit-ball!

a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic- tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
" target="_blank">http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-t ime/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
1330. DFWjc
Quoting midnite02:
DFWjc

You mention the "THE HILL" earlier. Best food around.
When I took my wife there she was looking for a big hill. LOL


oh noes...(laughs)
1331. emcf30
Quoting Chicklit:


Trolls typically cannot spell let alone put together intelligent paragraphs.

LOL
Quoting h0db:
Troll...troll..troll..hard.Big trolls don't get fed on this weather blog.This is a rip of from some rap song my daughter litsens to.I tell her to turn it off around me.
Quoting daddyjames:


Thanks PI.
Yes the situation in Mexico is pretty unstable right now (to say the least). Wasn't aware that the violence was spreading southwards . . . with the exception of Michoacán.


You're welcome! Serious problems all over Mexico.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya right.......POOF I WOULD GO! Sorry can't do that on the main blog. Many Know it tho.....I just can't post it sorry!


Yes you can, others on here do it.

Generally, links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


You're welcome! Serious problems all over Mexico.


Unfortunately, as the majority of the people there are quite wonderful . . .
Don't send it north, don't send it north...

Quoting P451:


Because until proven otherwise every cloud in the Atlantic is going Cat 5 and heading to the Lesser Antilles, the deforested mountains of Haiti, Grand Cayman, South Florida, and NOLA.



That's how STORMTOP got Katrina right. Kept declaring every cloud swirl an imminent disaster and it just so happens Katrina WAS a disaster!
1338. DFWjc
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Yes you can, others on here do it.

Generally, links to non-commercial (that is, personal) weather sites, personal sites/blogs, and especially photographers' site (even commercial) are allowed.


i linked the link of a link to the tampa link, um yeah that's right, right?
Quoting Patrap:
I met Avila here during a Cuban US Hurricane Conference,,the day after QuiKscat Failed and we had a interesting conversation over a few,,er,, refreshments after.


He's a colorful,knowledgeable guy.


I too have met Avila. Extremely friendly and personable.

I'm liking this pattern of deep troughs showing up this time of year. I know I don't speak for all Floridians, but I'd love to go another year without a hurricane. Bring up the count to 0 hurricanes since the end of '05.
I find the similarities between 2005 and 2011 to be eerily similar...... Nate makes 15...... better dust off the Greek Alphabet......

Didn't think I would see a season as active as 2005 as soon, or EVER for that matter!

Just thankful that the A/B high has shifted eastward, allowing curvature away from the CONUS, and hopefully the Bahama's as well. Don't know how long this pattern will hold...... we can surely hope the rest of the season!
1341. emcf30
It is amazing how some people cannot resist to quote someone who is OBVIOUSLY trying to create havoc on the blog. Every one was doing good until the last couple hundred post or so.
Quoting FloridaTigers:


I too have met Avila. Extremely friendly and personable.

I'm liking this pattern of deep troughs showing up this time of year. I know I don't speak for all Floridians, but I'd love to go another year without a hurricane. Bring up the count to 0 hurricanes since the end of '05.
No ofense but when the people right the disscussions and stuff for the storms they sound like computers.
Quoting hypercaneDOOMyGLOOM:


That's how STORMTOP got Katrina right. Kept declaring every cloud swirl an imminent disaster and it just so happens Katrina WAS a disaster!


So, you've been lurking since at least 2005?
1344. cwf1069
Good Afternoon wunderblogers.
Quoting washingtonian115:
No ofense but when the people right the disscussions and stuff for the storms they sound like computers.


Exactly as it should be. Human emotions are not acceptable in such instances.
1346. P451
Convection just isn't deep.




After looking organized earlier, with convection beginning to pull up and around the center, just doesn't seem as impressive now.



Quoting thelmores:
I find the similarities between 2005 and 2011 to be eerily similar...... Nate makes 15...... better dust off the Greek Alphabet......

Didn't think I would see a season as active as 2005 as soon, or EVER for that matter!

Just thankful that the A/B high has shifted eastward, allowing curvature away from the CONUS, and hopefully the Bahama's as well. Don't know how long this pattern will hold...... we can surely hope the rest of the season!
One similarity is that they use the same name list.
Quoting Patrap:
I met Avila here during a Cuban US Hurricane Conference,,the day after QuiKscat Failed and we had a interesting conversation over a few,,er,, refreshments after.


He's a colorful,knowledgeable guy.

snort
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Exactly as it should be. Human emotions are not acceptable in such instances.


Yes, imagine if an official forecaster wrote as many do in the media . . . I wince every time someone says that a system has "slammed" into . . .
Quoting SPLbeater:


that yellow circle was a lowpressure area, and it was being sheared to death by Katia. allit is right now is a cluster of NNW-bound squall lines, so no worries except rainfall around the Antilles area


Thanks! I saw it this morning before I headed off to work, and then I came home and it was gone. Wondered what had become of it.
1351. JLPR2
Maria is closing in on this buoy.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


So, you've been lurking since at least 2005?


yup
1353. DFWjc
Quoting daddyjames:


Yes, imagine if an official forecaster wrote as many do in the media . . . I wince every time someone says that a system has "slammed" into . . .


yeah, i've always like floated over better? LOL!!
Quoting waterskiman:

snort


Reported.
Quoting P451:
Convection just isn't deep.




After looking organized earlier, with convection beginning to pull up and around the center, just doesn't seem as impressive now.





lol, other than pulling the center further under the convection, it hasn't changed much. In fact, it has become slightly better organized.
did that whattheheckhappened get banned?
Quoting islander101010:
phish is going to do a benefit concert for the vermont disaster cnn just mentioned that



I guess that makes IRENE a "PHISH" storm!
Quoting washingtonian115:
No ofense but when the people right the disscussions and stuff for the storms they sound like computers.


Well, they have to. OFFICIAL FORECAST should be an objective, logic derived conclusion from looking at analysis. However, it's funny when someone like Avila adds a crack of humor here and there.
Quoting Patrap:
I met Avila here during a Cuban US Hurricane Conference,,the day after QuiKscat Failed and we had a interesting conversation over a few,,er,, refreshments after.


He's a colorful,knowledgeable guy.


lol! Avila's humor kept me sane in 2004 and 2005--Charley, Frances, Jeanne all impacted my home, and we were too close for comfort to some of the others. He is one who definitely does NOT write like a computer, and I appreciate it:)

WOW this season is a record one. Already to the end of the names' list
1361. P451
12 Hr WV: A battle of wills ensues:

btw, STORMTOP changed his handle multiple times. He writes with a particular style. I think his handle this year is something to the effect of "cloudburst"(dont remember the rest of the handle)

sorry I'm off topic. Just couldn't resist. Ill stop now.
Quoting NHCaddict:


lol! Avila's humor kept me sane in 2004 and 2005--Charley, Frances, Jeanne all impacted my home, and we were too close for comfort to some of the others. He is one who definitely does NOT write like a computer, and I appreciate it:)



Same thing with Franklin. I personally liked the first advisory for TS Franklin in 2005 where he said "FRANKLIN, THE STORM, NOT THE FORECASTER, IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN FIVE DAYS" or something like that xD
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WOW this season is a record one. Already to the end of the names' list
yeah its been wild loys of storms hitting everyone cant take anymore
Quoting P451:
12 Hr WV: A battle of wills ensues:



Looking better.
Quoting P451:
Convection just isn't deep.




After looking organized earlier, with convection beginning to pull up and around the center, just doesn't seem as impressive now.





Cause as you noted before, and from the coordinates given by NHC, the surface coc is north of the main convection to the south
1368. P451
Quoting hypercaneDOOMyGLOOM:


That's how STORMTOP got Katrina right. Kept declaring every cloud swirl an imminent disaster and it just so happens Katrina WAS a disaster!


Pretty much.


LOL, the post you replied to, got removed?

Yeah, you can see what you're dealing with here.

The truth is too much for some to handle.

Quoting FloridaTigers:


Well, they have to. OFFICIAL FORECAST should be an objective, logic derived conclusion from looking at analysis. However, it's funny when someone like Avila adds a crack of humor here and there.
When they add humor it mkes it seem more "human".
1370. 996tt
Quoting 69Viking:


Tigger you're only hearing one side of the story. I'm betting that there were no signs that banned fishing in the area. Also if you think about people who fish get to the beach early, usually around sunrise. Surfers on the other hand arrive a little later when the surf starts to kick up more. I've had surfers walk down to the beach I'm setup on and decide to paddle out not 20 yards to my left or right and then decide to paddle right over my lines in a lot of cases hitting them. I'm also believe that anybody willing to steal is not telling the whole story.


Haha, nice comments, speculation and projection. Obviously, you only get one side of the story and I could care less what anyone thinks so I have no reason to slant anything. Guy said he didn't care if a "child or someone" was bit by a shark. I was playing nice. I could have paddled him out there to hang out with his buddies. He could have swam his fat out-of-shape self out to get his stuff and get a closer view of what he was trying to catch.

Huge ocean out there to go catch sharks and no need to be luring sharks into a somewhat crowded public beach. As original post said, there have been a slew of sightings in the last couple of days.
1371. JamesSA
Poof! Poof! Poof!... preemptive strikes.
Quoting FloridaTigers:


I too have met Avila. Extremely friendly and personable.

I'm liking this pattern of deep troughs showing up this time of year. I know I don't speak for all Floridians, but I'd love to go another year without a hurricane. Bring up the count to 0 hurricanes since the end of '05.


Yeah.. Florida will not get hit by a Hurricane this year.
Quoting Matt1989:
So we got a recurver.. And another Recurver and a mexico crash... next next and next.


Hate to say but that will be the theme this year buddy...The Texas death ridge is still sitting there causing havoic and the troughs just keep coming...if anything these troughs will make it for a very hard winter for the SE U.S. as i have been saying
Quoting:
I find the similarities between 2005 and 2011 to be eerily similar...... Nate makes 15...... better dust off the Greek Alphabet......

Didn't think I would see a season as active as 2005 as soon, or EVER for that matter!

Just thankful that the A/B high has shifted eastward, allowing curvature away from the CONUS, and hopefully the Bahama's as well. Don't know how long this pattern will hold...... we can surely hope the rest of the season!





15 Tropical Cyclones, Yes
But now 15 Named Storms. The "O" Name is the 15th
I find it uncanny how mother nature can seem to sometimes have a sense of humor. This is the 2nd time we'll have seen greek letters and its the same exact list as the first time we saw it.
Quoting DFWjc:


i linked the link of a link to the tampa link, um yeah that's right, right?
If you have a question about the house rules, they're available at the bottom of the page. Please note that the house rules regarding this main blog are different than the house rules regarding any other blog.
Very good analogue for Tropical Storm Maria right now...maybe a tad farther south, but:

Quoting P451:


Pretty much.


LOL, the post you replied to, got removed?

Yeah, you can see what you're dealing with here.

The truth is too much for some to handle.



I wish admin on this site would ADD the post # to each quoted post. Would make verifying posts more simple.
Quoting hypercaneDOOMyGLOOM:
Jeff Masters mentions AGW frequently, and besides, to him, AGW is always pertinent to the conversation, since he claims we are causing it! AGW is always an on-topic discussion on here(using AGW logic). If you don't like it, stay out of the discussion! Don't just label someone a troll because they talk about it!


true
you can always tell a troll by there handles
and join dates
yet know of things that happen 6 years ago
so must of been a blogger at one time
but blew a gasket got banned
now comes back as the blogger they want to be
but never will
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Reported.

putin you in a head lock, LOL

tequila or rum

Katia or Maria

make your choice
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I find it uncanny how mother nature can seem to sometimes have a sense of humor. This is the 2nd time we'll have seen greek letters and its the same exact list as the first time we saw it.


Maybe she knows.
1382. DFWjc
Quoting P451:


Pretty much.


The truth is too much for some to handle.



Maybe the Lil Jimmy's can't handle the whole truth on here. Cause someone might just get got if the start talking comspiritcies!!(mispell on purpose). (sorry had to quote R-Truth)
1383. Levi32
The continental dry air fetch being pounded into Nate is coming all the way from southern Canada, illustrated by both surface obs and mid-level steering flow. It is going to be very hard to fight that.



1384. DFWjc
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If you have a question about the house rules, they're available at the bottom of the page. Please note that the house rules regarding this main blog are different than the house rules regarding any other blog.


I'm sure there's a plethora amount of rules too (snickers)
Dry Air vs. Nate.


YOU SHALL NOT PASS!
1386. rv1pop
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sometimes you should link us to your site, lol.
click on his name and you are there
1387. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, other than pulling the center further under the convection, it hasn't changed.


Sure it has.

Had a more impressive signature to it and colder cloud tops earlier in the day. Despite generally warm tops it had a solid arc of convection pulling up around the south and halfway up the east side. And then... it just stopped and that arc completely collapsed. What convection it does have right now isn't reaching far into the atmosphere at all and appears to be shedding to the SW as it does.

It had the look of a system that had the pedal to the floor. And now for now it has let off the past few hours.

1388. nigel20
Hey guys, this is the first time i have been on the blog since last week. I have been busy with school, i just started second year. I see that we now have H Katia, TS Maria and TS Nate. The Atlantic can move from zero storms on one to two or three storms on the next, that's why it is important to always be prepared.
Quoting Levi32:
The continental dry air fetch being pounded into Nate is coming all the way from southern Canada, illustrated by both surface obs and mid-level steering flow. It is going to be very hard to fight that.



what are you favoring for future track? I know you like to go on your own skill in forecasting
Quoting waterskiman:

putin you in a head lock, LOL

tequila or rum

Katia or Maria

make your choice
Quoting HurricaneVSafety:


Yeah.. Florida will not get hit by a Hurricane this year.
Quoting Matt1989:
So we got a recurver.. And another Recurver and a mexico crash... next next and next.


No comment. I am not up to another rant.
Quoting Levi32:
The continental dry air fetch being pounded into Nate is coming all the way from southern Canada, illustrated by both surface obs and mid-level steering flow. It is going to be very hard to fight that.





Its not being "pounded" into Nate. In fact, its barely even affecting the storm.
1392. FLdewey
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Probably a computer malfunction.


Blue screen of death, then it flipped.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No comment. I am not up to another rant.

I don't know about your other pics, but FYI we be mates I gonna get a bruse out of this :)
Quoting thelmores:
I find the similarities between 2005 and 2011 to be eerily similar...... Nate makes 15...... better dust off the Greek Alphabet......

Didn't think I would see a season as active as 2005 as soon, or EVER for that matter!

Just thankful that the A/B high has shifted eastward, allowing curvature away from the CONUS, and hopefully the Bahama's as well. Don't know how long this pattern will hold...... we can surely hope the rest of the season!


Has Greek-casting already been defined?
Quoting Levi32:
The continental dry air fetch being pounded into Nate is coming all the way from southern Canada, illustrated by both surface obs and mid-level steering flow. It is going to be very hard to fight that.



a fight more like a whipping for nate that is
florida gasnt had a hurricane since wilma of 2005
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its not being "pounded" into Nate. In fact, its barely even affecting the storm.
Yeah...not really.

Levi, what do you think ts nate is going to do , i live on westbank of new orleans , so just curious
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I guess that makes IRENE a "PHISH" storm!
take alot more $ than phish can make to do the job
Quoting WxBlogAddict:


Has Greek-casting already been defined?


brilliant!lol +100
1401. Levi32
Quoting mobhurricane2011:
what are you favoring for future track? I know you like to go on your own skill in forecasting


It's trickier now because Nate developed a good deal southwest of where he was forecasted to two days ago by the models. At that time I favored a track straight to the north gulf coast. Now it's iffier and will depend on fine details of Nate's strength and the amplification of Lee's old upper trough over the southern United States. I see the hook left into Mexico being more likely if Nate stays weak, and the track to the northern gulf being more likely if he strengthens a bunch.
1402. DFWjc
Quoting WxBlogAddict:


Has Greek-casting already been defined?


In the event that more than 21 named tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic basin in a season, additional storms will take names from the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and so on. If a storm forms in the off-season, it will take the next name in the list based on the current calendar date. For example, if a tropical cyclone formed on December 28th, it would take the name from the previous season's list of names. If a storm formed in February, it would be named from the subsequent season's list of names.
Tropical Storm Maria has an impressive satellite presentation, despite the fact that the center of circulation is a bit displaced in the convection. In my opinion, this will strengthen more than the National Hurricane Center is indicating, but still not as much as last nights intensity forecast was. The SHIPS model indicates that wind shear should be on the rise, to the moderate/high level. This, combined with a dry environment, may weaken Maria some in a couple of days. However, conditions may be favorable once the system passes the Caribbean Islands.

SHEAR (KT) 11 11 19 20 15 21 18 15 13 17 18 22 19

700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 57 57 57 61 60 59 60 59 56 52

Quoting DFWjc:


I'm sure there's a plethora amount of rules too (snickers)
Not really.
It's pretty cut and dried...and short.
Here's what Dr. Master's wants for his blog.
Link
.
And here's what Dr. Masters wants for all the other blogs.
Link
.
The whole thing takes about a minute to read, for both links.
Quoting Levi32:


It's trickier now because Nate developed a good deal southwest of where he was forecasted to two days ago by the models. At that time I favored a track straight to the north gulf coast. Now it's iffier and will depend on fine details of Nate's strength and the amplification of Lee's old upper trough over the southern United States. I see the hook left into Mexico being more likely if Nate stays weak, and the track to the northern gulf being more likely if he strengthens a bunch.
thanks
1406. DFWjc
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Not really.
It's pretty cut and dried...and short.
Here's what Dr. Master's wants for his blog.
Link
.
And here's what Dr. Masters wants for all the other blogs.
Link
.
The whole thing takes about a minute to read.


OMG you missed it, c'mon, your "pic" El Guapo...plethora oh i thought you'd get that one.. LOL :D
1407. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its not being "pounded" into Nate. In fact, its barely even affecting the storm.


Actually yes it is being pounded directly into him. You can't interpret the presence of a few thunderstorms to mean there is no dry air in the circulation.

Take a good look at that northwesterly inflow.

1409. FLdewey
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its not being "pounded" into Nate. In fact, its barely even affecting the storm.


You sure? Looks pretty rough to me.
1410. P451
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a fight more like a whipping for nate that is


9HR WV Imagery.

Quoting CosmicEvents:
Not really.
It's pretty cut and dried...and short.
Here's what Dr. Master's wants for his blog.
Link
.
And here's what Dr. Masters wants for all the other blogs.
Link
.
The whole thing takes about a minute to read, for both links.


I'll derive the ones that the members seem to ignore...

1. Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.

2. Stay on topic.

6. No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".

7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.

8. No spamming.

9. No spamming.

10. Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.

Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.
Quoting uptxcoast:
Magnolia fire still going strong NW of Houston. I can see the smoke from my building still, might have even gotten bigger with a couple of other pillars of smoke rising into the horizon in different places.

My Daughter in Austin Says she hopes Nate comes and gives them a "Big Wet Kiss:)" Says Smoke today in N Austin has been rough.
1413. cwf1069
Quoting Levi32:


It's trickier now because Nate developed a good deal southwest of where he was forecasted to two days ago by the models. At that time I favored a track straight to the north gulf coast. Now it's iffier and will depend on fine details of Nate's strength and the amplification of Lee's old upper trough over the southern United States. I see the hook left into Mexico being more likely if Nate stays weak, and the track to the northern gulf being more likely if he strengthens a bunch.

Hi Levi32. If you please answer my question.
Can Nate's path affect Maria's track on any way. Thank you in advance.
Quoting WxBlogAddict:


Has Greek-casting already been defined?
I believe you're the first to mention the term....congrats.
Add another caster Willy!
.
We're probably better off not getting into defining it though:)
Quoting spinningtop:
florida gasnt had a hurricane since wilma of 2005
thats a good thing no
Quoting Levi32:


Actually yes it is being pounded directly into him. You can't interpret the presence of a few thunderstorms to mean there is no dry air in the circulation.

Take a good look at that northwesterly inflow.



Well then, why isn't it affecting the system?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Not really.
It's pretty cut and dried...and short.
Here's what Dr. Master's wants for his blog.
Link
.
And here's what Dr. Masters wants for all the other blogs.
Link
.
The whole thing takes about a minute to read, for both links.


Wow, with the exception of items 8-10 no spamming; pretty much every other rule for Dr. M's blog is violated on a regular basis, by everyone.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Not really.
It's pretty cut and dried...and short.
Here's what Dr. Master's wants for his blog.
Link
.
And here's what Dr. Masters wants for all the other blogs.
Link
.
The whole thing takes about a minute to read, for both links.

LOL Cosmic. I thought he wanted all of us here to discuss that! Duh! lol. Hey, got the tools ready and the smoker hot. Their should be a good fire later is case you are going to drop by,,since i wasn't sure what you meant in the wu-email regarding aquak9's moosehead bash.
Quoting P451:


Sure it has.

Had a more impressive signature to it and colder cloud tops earlier in the day. Despite generally warm tops it had a solid arc of convection pulling up around the south and halfway up the east side. And then... it just stopped and that arc completely collapsed. What convection it does have right now isn't reaching far into the atmosphere at all and appears to be shedding to the SW as it does.

It had the look of a system that had the pedal to the floor. And now for now it has let off the past few hours.



Most of that is because daytime heating in that area is at its peak, and thus convection is waning, as it has for the past several days at this time. That would explain the "better by day, worse by night" stuff that has went on with systems near land.
María María, que alegre va María, con su tierna figura... Despues vendrá El Niño... (excuse me, but I wish to write this in spanish). Que pasará con María? (What would happen with María?). I think she will go NE of the islands stronger than she is righ now... I can not predict any more. Really, (100 %) I dont know what could happen.
1421. Levi32
And all you have to do is glance at the total precipitable water lol. It's definitely invading from the northwest in that image.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I guess that makes IRENE a "PHISH" storm!


good one
1423. FLdewey
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well then, why isn't it affecting the system?


Really? You sure you want to step off this edge?

Step away from the light.
1424. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well then, why isn't it affecting the system?


Well the question is why do you think it isn't affecting it? All of the convection north and east of the center is collapsing as it forms, and the only true region of moist convection is occurring in a confined area southwest of the center where low-level convergence is being maximized.
Dang it...Already forgot that a system without wind shear won't look like it is being affected by dry air, and will be affected very little by it.

D'oh!
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I believe you're the first to mention the term....congrats.
Add another caster Willy!
.
We're probably better off not getting into defining it though:)

Are you sure?? :)) Nah, let's not go there. But had to be asked right!!
My sure conclusion is : This year is the year of the WEAK tropical systems. The predicted ACE activity is lower than predicted.
GFS has a a 1000mb system moving north over cuba into florida on sept 23rd :)
1429. P451
Not that they are of any real use.... but the Alvarado radar has been down since Aug 30th.

Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
GFS has a a 1000mb system moving north over cuba into florida on sept 23rd :)

Fishaholic! Been looking all over for you. Where have you been?
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
GFS has a a 1000mb system moving north over cuba into florida on sept 23rd :)
omg stop it already they vant even predict what will happen in a hour
Quoting Levi32:


Well the question is why do you think it isn't affecting it? All of the convection north and east of the center is collapsing as it forms, and the only true region of moist convection is occurring in a confined area southwest of the center where low-level convergence is being maximized.


Look at the visible satellite loop ...Link...

Doesn't necessarily give the appearance of a system where thunderstorms are collapsing. In fact, it gives me the impression that thunderstorm activity is developing on all quadrants of the system. I don't see any outflow boundaries indicative of dry air affecting the system.
Even the anti-DOOMcaster myself can see there is a whole slew of dry air getting pumped into that blog....err, I mean blob in the BOC.
1434. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Most of that is because daytime heating in that area is at its peak, and thus convection is waning, as it has for the past several days at this time. That would explain the "better by day, worse by night" stuff that has went on with systems near land.


Nah, I think it's finally tapping that dry air to be honest.

1435. DFWjc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Look at the visible satellite loop ...Link...

Doesn't necessarily give the appearance of a system where thunderstorms are collapsing. In fact, it gives me the impression that thunderstorm activity is developing on all quadrants of the system. I don't see any outflow boundaries indicative of dry air affecting the system.


which kinda makes it a bit scary, don't ya think?
Quoting Levi32:


Well the question is why do you think it isn't affecting it? All of the convection north and east of the center is collapsing as it forms, and the only true region of moist convection is occurring in a confined area southwest of the center where low-level convergence is being maximized.
gfs shows exactly what you have panning out levi maria recurving and a carribean system forms although the gfs takes it almost due north into hispanola then wnw into florida as a 997mb system. is that a likely track and now the WE HAVE NATE what is your track and intensity on him sir?
Quoting Levi32:


Well the question is why do you think it isn't affecting it? All of the convection north and east of the center is collapsing as it forms, and the only true region of moist convection is occurring in a confined area southwest of the center where low-level convergence is being maximized.

well put


nate is the scared little boy in a corner as the big bad dry air mass tries to extinguish him.
1438. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Look at the visible satellite loop ...Link...

Doesn't necessarily give the appearance of a system where thunderstorms are collapsing. In fact, it gives me the impression that thunderstorm activity is developing on all quadrants of the system. I don't see any outflow boundaries indicative of dry air affecting the system.


Outflow boundaries aren't going to always show up, and convection has been lacking so long north and east of Nate's center that there are no significant (large) outflow boundaries to look for right now.

And of course satellite imagery is up for personal interpretation, and you might be right, but I adamantly disagree at this point.
Something interesting to know: If we can manage to squeeze out two named storms before 10 days are up, we will be ahead of 2005 in terms of named storms. Hurricane Philippe of 2005 did not form until September 17.
ACE has made a considerable jump over the past few weeks...Thanks to Irene, and now Katia. Before Katia dissipates, I'd expect ACE to be over 60. Maria will be another big ACE contributor, but maybe not as much as Irene or Katia, if it doesn't strengthen into a major hurricane.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Look at the visible satellite loop ...Link...

Doesn't necessarily give the appearance of a system where thunderstorms are collapsing. In fact, it gives me the impression that thunderstorm activity is developing on all quadrants of the system. I don't see any outflow boundaries indicative of dry air affecting the system.
Look at the lower-level cloud deck...plenty of outflow boundaries (RGB displays this better) to the north of the circulation. Also, the only quadrant that this cyclone is firing convection in is the southern one. Everything else is pretty much void of the organized deep convection that is needed to classify a tropical cyclone.
Quoting Levi32:


Actually yes it is being pounded directly into him. You can't interpret the presence of a few thunderstorms to mean there is no dry air in the circulation.

Take a good look at that northwesterly inflow.


Anyone got some water to give Nate, he's been busy drink up to much dry air.
Quoting GerlindeEspinosa:

Fishaholic! Been looking all over for you. Where have you been?
Fishing, how r u.......
Quoting Levi32:


Outflow boundaries aren't going to always show up, and convection has been lacking so long north and east of Nate's center that there are no outflow boundaries to look for right now.


Where exactly is nate's surface coc? I put it at 21.5 N; 92.5 W.
Quoting Levi32:


Outflow boundaries aren't going to always show up, and convection has been lacking so long north and east of Nate's center that there are no significant (large) outflow boundaries to look for right now.

And of course satellite imagery is up for personal interpretation, and you might be right, but I adamantly disagree at this point.
You don't see the outflow boundaries to the north of the circulation? They don't diverge a great distance from where they hit the surface, but I definitely see a few.
015L/TS/N/CX
GFS is the most accurate model in my eyes......... when in doubt always look to it for guidance......
Levi,

If I understand correctly, Nate has to get strong quickly to be able to head more north to hit Texas, correct? Or can he gain strength slowly and still go more north?

The problem with the former would then he would be a strong storm hitting TX to help put out the fires and not the TS that would be better. Yes?
Quoting Chicklit:
nate is the scared little boy in a corner as the big bad dry air mass tries to extinguish him.


Does it help Texas any in the long run? I mean at a certain point there's got to be enough humidity in the air to lead to rain, right? Do the Nates and the Dons of this world give their little lives for nothing, or does it eventually lead to the greater good of rain over Texas?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ACE has made a considerable jump over the past few weeks...Thanks to Irene, and now Katia. Before Katia dissipates, I'd expect ACE to be over 60. Maria will be another big ACE contributor, but maybe not as much as Irene or Katia, if it doesn't strengthen into a major hurricane.


2011 Tropical Cyclone Activity
Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Updated Sep 07, 2011 23:00

BASIN CURRENT YTD
Northern Hemisphere
289.1500
Western Pacific
168.33
North Atlantic
57.225

Eastern Pacific
62.4925
North Indian
1.1025
Southern Hemisphere
140.398
Quoting weatherjr:
María María, que alegre va María, con su tierna figura... Despues vendrá El Niño... (excuse me, but I wish to write this in spanish). Que pasará con María? (What would happen with María?). I think she will go NE of the islands stronger than she is righ now... I can not predict any more. Really, (100 %) I dont know what could happen.


Que Sera Sera!
For september 10 (next saturday) it is supposed Maria be near or over the eastern most leewards. That day occurs the maximum probability of tropical cyclone occurrence (climatologically speaking). If Maria is to be or remain weak as forecasted that is an additional proof of the hypothesis that this year is the year of the high number but WEAK tropical cyclones. Excuse my BAD ENGLISH in this statement. I can write better , but I hope anyone understand my basic idea.
UUUHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

NNNNNNNEEEEEEWWWWWWW

BBBBLLLLLLOOOOOOGGGGGGG

PEOPLE
This year we had Maria and Jose. This year we could have the boy El Niño.
Who cares Maria (the storm, not the Virgin)? ...and the tropics? Nothing of interest right now.
Oh, Oh, bloggers are sleeping... Good nights to everybody,ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...
Back in 1/2 hour
Maria is just a couple of thunderstorms...
Back in 1/2 hour
1459. HCW
1460. 3211976
bouy near Maria

(* = Hyperactive so far)
This date in the season:
1933: 13 Named storms *
1995: 12 Named storms
2004: 9 Named storms
2005: 15 Named storms *
2008: 10 Named storms
2010: 9 Named storms
2011: 14 Named storms *


2005: 1st (Next Storm, Philippe, on Sept 17)
2011: 2nd (Next Storm in Next 7 to 10 Day)
1933: 3rd (Next Storm, #15, Sept 16)
1995: 4th (Next Storm, Marilyn, On Sept 12)
2008: 5th (Next Storm, Kyle, On Sept 25)
2004: 6th (Next Storm, Jeanne, On Sept 13)
2010: 6th (Next Storm, Julia, On Sept 12)

So with 2005 Taking a quick break, we could see a Tie for the second time this season. And if were lucky than we can get philippe before 2005, which would put us ahead a couple of days
Quoting Chicklit:

well put


nate is the scared little boy in a corner as the big bad dry air mass tries to extinguish him.

Seems an apt metaphor to me. I just got back to the computer, looked at the floater loop, and thought "that is one dead storm."

1463. 3211976
Maria is Real

back. natenot lookin good. Maria lookin better. Katia same as she has been last day er so
1465. 3211976
13.5 foot waves in NW quadrant of Maria. niceee
In caseyour interested - check out river levels in and around Binghamton, NY. Remnant rains from LEE are creating major problems with flooding there.
I am really late to this, but I just had to chip in about Forecaster Avila--I have always really enjoyed how his forecasts have a touch of personality sometimes. Do you guys remember reading about Epsilon back in 2005, the season that just wouldn't die? I almost felt bad for the guy, since it was clear that he and his colleagues were ready for Epsilon to just go away already, but he and his fellow forecasters handled it with humor and good grace:

December 7 ,2005 Epsilon Discussion

Anyway, back on topic: tropics are, obviously, pretty active! Lots of dry air for Nate to fight with, but I see that the NHC says that there's not a lot of shear. Is there any hope for Texas?
1469. WxLogic
00Z 42HR NAM:

H.Katia's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 7Sept_12amGMT and ending 8Sept_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 34.348n77.648w-01NC is the endpoint of the most
recent
previous straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Katia's travel-speed was 12mph(19.3k/h) on a heading of 330degrees(NNW)
H.Katia was headed toward passage over MARSpaceport(Bloxom)Virginia ~1days23hours from now

Copy&paste 34.348n77.648w-01nc, 27.7n66.9w-28.2n67.6w, 28.2n67.6w-28.8n68.4w, 28.8n68.4w-29.4n69.3w, 29.4n69.3w-30.3n69.9w, 9va3, 29.4n69.3w-37.8186n75.501w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 7Sept_6pmGMT)