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TD 11 forms in Bay of Campeche

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:44 PM GMT on August 22, 2005

Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate a tropical depression is forming within the disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center will issue a special advisory on this system by 11:30am EDT today. This system is expected to move ashore over the Mexican coast and not present a threat to the U.S. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system at 5pm EDT today to see if the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you for the information Dr. Masters. About the second wave coming off Africa, do you think that it will affect the caribbean?
Dr. Masters,
From what I have seen with TD 10 it maybe coming back again due to the high pressure that is getting stronger and the movement that it is going. I beleive that the system that is in the lower gulf will be a storm today but the next one maybe that of TD 10 getting to FL by saturday. It is getting active now for sure and we all need to be watching this area...
What is the projected path (if any) for that big blow up just off the coast of the Carolinas?
the blow up off the corlinas is on a frontal boundary in association with a week surface low over northern georgia and sc. the low is stationary and will probly disspipate . those showers will sit there and boom up and down till the low either moves or dissipates
Lefty-How is the wave off of Africa looking? It does not look very organized could StormT have been right about the dust?
the norther low had brought in some dust and shear as well as helped to draw the second low more north. it took quite some time for the northern low to dissipate and that took its toll. as of this morning the northern low and its circulation as wind down. now the second low while nowhere near as impressive as it first was still has a large and defined circulation, strong low pressure ceneter 1008 mb just as low as td 11, and convection is building back over that center. the major hurdle is that it is right at the 25-26c isoltherm. as it moves west the waters will only get warmer so as it moves west development is likely. i am not fone watching it and stated yesterday it could do nothing till that first low had disspated. now its has so lets see what happens
Well, I did no think that the dust would affect that wave either and at the very least it has slowed the development so- Sorry StormT you were at least partially correct.
What about the wave behind that?
dunno to early to tell we will see what happens
Looks like all the models are pretty much in agreement that xtd10 will develop and move over southern florida. I definitely need to keep an on this one.Link
sup guys
the one thing to notice is when the first wave came off it had 2 low pressures with it. this nect wave has no area of low pressure so development would be slow. only reason i feel development is still possible with the first wave is the large defined circulation, and the low pressure and here is a link so you cane see the convection trying to build back over the center.
link to irloop of easter atlantic wave

Link
u can see most of the convection is south of the 26c isotherm but as it moves west the waters both to the west and east are warmer. also the northern circulation associated with the northern low is no longer present ending the light shear and intrusion on the southern low
gain:
is this the "model" you speak so highly of?Link

If not, more information please.
that is so cool shera how do you get it
no how do you get it
Jeff, it's actually a radar system used by local TV stations to show storms.
oh ok so you cant download it and use it on the computer
I though we were rid of old 10, pretty amazing what the tropics can do. Chances of being near West Palm are???
Check out the spin on this loop. Link
this area n of cuba is becoming much more pronounced...i would not be surprised to see a recon plane there tonight...the wave is just about to come off africa and it already has a circulation...it looks really good..cant wait until it gets over the 85 degree water around 20 degrees then i expect either katrina or lee to form...this my friends will be a cat 5 and im updating my scale i will post it asap..
Why would they send the aircraft back to investigate TD11 when its simply going to swing over and hit Mexico??
What path do you think this area north of cuba will take if it forms?
STORMTOPS WIND ONLY SCALE

CAT 1 74 -100

CAT 2 101 - 120

CAT 3 121 -140

CAT 4 141 -160

CAT 5 161 -180

CAT 6 JUST INTRODUCED BY STORMTOP 181 - 200

THIS WILL BE THE SCALE I WILL USE ONLY....THE STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE DANGEROUS AS THIS GLOBAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES..THATS WHY I ADDED A CAT 6..IM NOT SURE THEY WILL BE ONE BUT ITS THERE JUST IN CASE I NEED IT...I WANT TO MAKE THIS PERFECTLY CLEAR THIS IS NOT WHAT THE NHC USE THEY USE THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE...SO YOU WILL GO BY THAT NOT MY SCALE...THIS IS THE SCALE ONLY I WILL BE USING...I WANT TO MAKE SURE EVERYONE UNDERSTANDS THIS....YOU HAVE NOW BEEN INTRODUCED TO STORMTOPS NEW WIND VELOCITY SCALE...LIKE I SAID BEFORE I PREDICT 2 CAT 5S THIS YEAR AND CAT 6 IS THERE IN CASE I NEED IT...
I've noticed fairly often that the big ones coming off Africa don't get their act together. Almost like there's too much to pull together. Whereas the middle size ones seem more able to get their act together and then are more set to grow in size and organization as they move across the Atlantic.
NO DOUBT IN MY MIND IT WILL FORM AND I THINK IT WILL TAKE A PATH TOWARDS S FLA AND THEN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...sorry about the caps...when it does get in the gulf temps are running anywhere from 88-94 degrees..that will be enough in itself for explosive development...
I offically predict that TD11 will hit Mexico, also that it will reach tropical storm strenght before hitting.
In the Gulf (bad), or skirt up the Florida coast (much better scenario) are both possible.
dauphin it was like i have said all along..the dust was the problem for storms trying to develop off of africa this august...the second one will have no problem this will develop pretty quickly and move west at a pretty good clip towards the islands gainning strength every bit of the way...i would say a cat 3 when it hits the island sometime in the weekend....
Ok, how can you guys possibly predict a weather phenomenon that is seven days (EARLIEST) away?? Also, can anyone say with certainty where the Bermuda High is currently parked and how it compares to last year??
td 1o will depend on track. if it stays over water it will finally form. i like the convection with the wave over africa. would like to see a low develop as none has yet. my best bet for katrina id td 11 becomes jose is the eastern atlantic wave as it still has good defined circulation and low pressure center and convection has been trying to pick up over the center
i agree orion the quicker the better...
I would like to add Category 7 for 200 or more winds. There will be no category 8. Cat 8 just not even worth contemplating. Cat 7 isn't worth contemplating either I just thought I throw a little wrench into things. :-)

Somebody ought to develop categories that consider more than just wind speed though. What do y'all think?
well i do not try to predict these things. i just state the conditions. some people try to predict track and what not. i always say look and see
STORMTOP, check your numbers for Category-5, your value is a little off.

And why do you feel the need for a Category-6? Storms in your Category-6 have happened over the years, and NHC has never changed the scale they prefer to use.

Saffir-Simpson scale uses wind velocity as a way to desribe the possible damage that the particular wind value will cause. Category-5 hurricanes cause catastrophic damage, and no matter if 156mph or 182 mph, it will still cause catasrophic damage.
cfl if you read my post i made that perfectly clear i will be the only one using it...if you dont know why we need a cat 6 well we already had 2 cat 3s in july do you need anymore convincing there wont be a 5 or 6...i think the water temps are sizzling and like i said i predicted 2 cat 5s .the 6 is there only if I NEED IT AND I WANT TO MAKE THAT PERFECTLY CLEAR TO EVERYONRE ON THIS BOARD..THE ONLY REASON WHY I BROUGHT IT UP BECAUSE I FEEL THERE WILL BE A CAT 6 AND ALEC WANTED ME TO POST THE SCALE AGAIN...THIS SCALE IS NOT FOR YOUR USE YOU GUYS GO BY THE NHC SCALE..OK WE CLEAR ON THAT NOW CFL
STORMTOP,

Your hurricane scale has one major flaw. The relation between wind speed and destructive force of a hurricane is exponential - not linear. That is the purpose of the Saffir-Simpson scale; to translate the force of a strom (and the potential for damange) into a category number that the average person can understand.

JV
I HAVE THE DAMAMGE SCALE ALSO I JUST THINK THATS GOOD OLD FASHION COMMON SENSE...
Like StormT said...only "He" will be using "his" scale.
VALENCE PLEASE SCROLL UP AND READ MY POST.......I JUST EXPLAINED WHY I DIDNT POST THAT...
lol than why make a scale if only u will use it. it is not needed as a 160mph storm will do as much damage as a 200mph storm and that just detroy anything in its way lol
i dont wat you guys using this anyway its for me and alec no one else ..use the saffir simpson scale ....
Oh, and STORMSTOP...with your evaluation of the path of xTD-10:

Quoting Dr. Masters
"If a depression does form, it will move west-northwest and probably make landfall in Mexico, under the steering flow of a strong upper-level high located over the southern Gulf states. This quasi-stationary high has been in place for a number of days, and is not forecast to move much the next few days. This high will act to protect the Gulf Coast of the U.S. both by steering potential tropical storms westward towards Mexico, and by using its strong shearing winds to tear apart any systems that venture too close to the Gulf Coast."

So it looks like the only potential threat for xTD-10 is Cuba, the southern portion of FL, and maybe eventually TX and Mexico.

JV

either way its all good stormT do what ever floats ur boat man
man i love you guys lol
lefty i explained that im not going to repeat myself again...
thanks lefty im glad you approve....
hey stomtop cat6 whats that for man there wont be one that strong gosh
no need to man i can read. just having good fun. the major point is that looks like the tropics are back on fire solets all enjoy it
Well, i just came up with my own scale. Im adding:

CATEGORY 0.5
Tropical Storms w/ winds over 50mph.

CATEGORY 13 (aka GET OUT OF DODGE)
Hurricane w/ winds over 300mph

But dont worry, i'll be the only one using this scale. No one else needs to pay attention to it.

JV
jeff

there have been storms with over 200mph winds
really ya right are you talking about tornadoes wabit
valence i agree with you on jose but i dont agree with you on td 11 path..i say it will go to s fla then the high will allow it to threaten the northern gulf coast because the high will weaken from the trough which shows up in water vapor quite clear over the midwest...it will be coming down that will allow katrina or lee whichever comes first to move on a wnn to nw path...thats my opinion after the data i read at 10am this morning...it is defenitely becoming better organized and i wouldnt be surprised to see a recon plane there later tonight....
jeff no i'm talking about camille and the 35 storm
lol@valence...yes wabit you are correct..camille could of had gusts to 230 no one is certain..when it picks up train tracks and bends steel buildings in half you kind of wonder maybe camille with the gusts could of been as hight as 250mph before it hit pass christian..
stormtop

whos alec?
a friend of mind
stormtop
was just wondering. there was a blog about camille late last nite and was just wondering
hi folks...wasnt Gilbert the most powerful ever Ive been reading?
lefty i dont know how you can say a 160mph wind storm will do just as much damage as a 200mph wind storm...for one thing lefty you are definitely going to have a much bigger storm surge when the center crosses the coast and my God if it comes in at high tide the surge will be greater..lefty you are out the park making that kingd of a statement..i disagree completely with you on that...200mph storm would cause catosstrophic damage nothing standing flooding everywhere i know a 160 mph would cause extreme damage but not that extreme with flooding as a 200mph would...
A few storms have had wind GUSTS over 200mph. But hurricane intensity (and the scales for them) are based on sustatined winds - and off of the top of my head i can't think of any Atlantic hurricane with sustained winds of 200mph. Camille had 190, and Gilbert had 185, but a much lower pressure, and those are the two strongest I can think of.

Going back to Camille. I wish we would have had some of today's technology back then. From the pictures i've seen, accounts that i've read, this storm seems to be the nastiest hurricane of all time. From a purely scientific perspective, this would have been an interesting strom
to watch and track.

JV
(If anyone has any great links for Camille - hook me up!)
yes whirlwind pressure wise not wind wise..gilberts most strength off the coast of cancun when i believe it had winds of 180mps sustained but gilbert had the lowest pressure in the atlantis i believe im correct on that...
this link says Gilbert was the most powerful ever

Link

and compares all major ones..good link
stormtop

i agree with you on the damage and know one knows how strong camille was all wind measuring equipment was destroyed over an hour before eyewall made land fall
DR MASTERS NEW UPDATE JUST POSTED
Yeah, STORM, you are correct. Pressure was 888mb (and wind was 185-190), and something in the Pacific had 882mb. Those are the two strongest on record.

JV
My scale goes up to 11...though it does skip ten. :D

Anyone else in the safest part of Florida--Jacksonville? :D

B
New Hurricane rating system

Cat1 - TS to 74 mph - SURF's UP
Cat2 - 75 - 110 mph - BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES
Cat3 - 111 - 130mph - BYE BYE ROOF
Cat4 - 131 - 155mph - REDEVELOPMENT STARTS NOW
Cat5 - 156 - 180mph - KISS YOUR BUTT BYE BYE
Cat6 - 180mph + - NUCLEAR (pronouced now clear)

(LOL)

Seriously any tropical system can be a killer system (look at TS Allison in 2001, caused 40 deaths and 5 billion in damage). I agree with DauphinIslandDunes that a new system that adds in other factors than windspeed should be included.
valence you are forgetting allan in 1980 which had sustained winds of 185mph just off of cozumel..allans pressure was 26.55 inches that is 898mb...
you know what all those powerful hurricanes have in common?

they all happened many many many years ago. that tells us we are due, it will be D day soon. conditions are right, its just a matter of time till one wave steps up to the plate and hits a homer
we had some whoppers valence over the years...i think we are in for a record breaker this year...
jose is getting his act together for mexico....i think it slowed down and i dont like that..i think jose should be on shore by early tues morning...
You guys have to be out of your mind with storm that have sustained winds of 200mph. If we ever have one, I'd be absolutely shocked.

This is not saying anything about the weather conditions, or global warming, lack of shear, etc. It is simply a matter of physics. The strongest sustained winds are at the eyewall (core) of the storm. As the pressure drops, the speed of the wind increases, and the eyewall begins to contract (get smaller). Eventually the velocity of the winds at the core becomes too great to sustain the eyewall, so it collapes, and a new, larger eyewall is formed (called the eyewall replacement cycle). This is why storms usually aren't classified as Category 5 for very long, even in open water.

In order for a hurricane to acheive winds this high, you would have to an extremely rapid pressure drop (even faster than Andrew or Gilbert) that would allow for this absurly high wind speed before the inner core collaped. And even if you had the perfect conditions, (including having a recon plane in there to measure it), there is no way that this storm would hold these vitals near and major land mass.

JV
STORMTOP - its not that I "forogt" about Allan - its just that I wasn't born yet, and never even knew him.

Just looked it up though - heck of a storm. Reach winds of 180mph (sustained) 3 differecnt times! Thats gotta be some kind of record.


JV
valence

By the next afternoon (17 August), reconnaissance aircraft reached Hurricane Camille about 2:00 p.m. CDT, 100 miles south of the Mississippi coast. Historic conditions now existed in the tightly knotted vortex of Camille. The aircraft had measured a barometric pressure of 905 mb (26.73). This was one of the lowest barometric pressure readings ever measured by aircraft up to that time. Only two supertyphoons in the Pacific - Ida in 1958 (873 mb/25.90), and Marge in 1951(895 mb/26.20), had a lower barometric pressure been measured (JTWC 1976). Sustained winds had now increased to an incredible 190 mph. Camille was now estimated to make landfall along the Mississippi coast around midnight on the 17th.

the recon aircraft was 100 miles away and look at the sustained wind speed it was very nasty i was there and know a little about the storm
Isnt it odd that most hurricanes make landfall at night? Especially near midnight...is it the weather conditions that do that or just coincedence?
stormt if u handn't notice i was just pointing out that at that point theres so much damage that who cares at the exact speed. total detruction. sorry i been off for a few guys. had to bother the wife a bit
lol@valence yes it was a storm for mexico and texas..i think it went inland on the tex mex border....
i got you lefty .....you looked at the convection n of cuba ..its getting better organized and more concentrated...what do you think lefty?
whirlwind i honestly dont know the answer to that question...maybe someone on here can give you the answer..ask lefty?
StormT..is the center of that on cuba now or just north of it...there is something going on there
its n of cuba right now whirlwind...its looking good...more deeper convection..
yeah i see some more flare and possible organasation. the main thing is that it will be slow to develop and probly won't happen till after she moves either into south florida or to the south of fflorida some time tommorow or the next thing. i think it will pass be tween cuba and florida and once in the gulf will finally after its long life have a chance to develop. thats also what most models are showing and if it does make it to the gulf it will blowup quite quickly with 85-90 waters as forcasted by most models.

and with the wave in the eatern atlantic and the new convection comming off the coast it is getting hot and getting their quickly
lefty you around...might you have an answer to that question>

Isnt it odd that most hurricanes make landfall at night? Especially near midnight...is it the weather conditions that do that or just coincedence?
Anyways back to 10
I found another model that recognizes the system in the Bahamas. Link(Press > wher you see step valid time) It is definitly a significant system. If it gets into the gulf the water there is super heated waters that have gotten significantly hotter just this week.Link(go to the archive viewer last 10 days) This model is not pretty but it is just another tool to gather info from. This model also sees this storm going through the state of florida and strenghthening off of the west coast but disagrees with Jeff in that it takes it through the weakining pressure over the northern gulf - north up the Florida coast into the panhandle and strenghthining. The question with this system is how far off the coast will it get and how fast it will be moving?

You know, xTD-10 is like a spoiled child. You guys keep making excuses for, as to why it can't "get its act together". Some of you keep hoping that this thing will find the light and become an actually tropical cyclone, but I've officially given up on this sytem.

Its time for some tough love :- )

JV
hey whirlwind, sorry i didn't see ur earlier post i was bothering the wife. i notuiced that to think its just a coincedence cause the avg speed of these storms in relation to the distance of the us mainland from tropical origins means that most systems will reach the coast in a certain time frame.

u also have to thro in the diurinal cooling effect meaning most systems will get better organise and develop over night setting up the stage for a more narrow timefram from development to landfall. their is also other factors that play into this but the night time landfalls throws a erie presence over the storm as most people hear damage but can't see it, and than in the morning come out of their homes to discover a new world if u will, specially major hurricane like andrew, hugo and others
To answer whirlwind's question:

I think that nightfalling hurricanes are just a coincidence. Some of the more memorable ones (Camille, Andrew, Ivan last year) have come in at night, so it may just seem like there is correlation.

If there is a connection, it may have something to do with higher pressure over land during the day slowing the forward motion of a sytem as it approaches the coast. But im no expert . . .

JV
valence while i respect ur opinion and have similar feelings as a spoiled child it has had a hard life you know. all alone in the tropics with so much potential, than it has to deal with dust and shear and so much more so sad lol

but on a seriuse note she has always continued to flare up just as you think she is done and sometimes these types of systems are the most dangerous as you don't have this massive storm being talked about for days and have days to plan, so if xtd-10 does get togetehr it could be more deadly as people will not take the threat as serious. u feel me?

also with the tropics you must not sleep on anything till the disturbance totally dies off or moves inland
interesting...both Jeanne and Frances came here during nighttime also. Must be the diurinal playing a part..
yes i agree lefty...
so much love in here today :-)
it looks to me like jose is moving more towards the sw now according to satellite loops and water vapor...
lefty
didn't the nhc say in one of there updates that anthing above 20 was not associated with 10 so shouldn't 10 be dead? and what is developing near cuba shouldn't or will it be called 12
Oh and to those who think xTD10 is dead. Here is just 1 more "super" computer model that disagrees....

Link
it won't cause its the wave from td 10 but good question. i think it will be td 10 personally if it develops into a depression
Lefty, i actually agree with you. I live in South FL, and have been watching this storm for over a week. (Actually postponed a vacation just in case). Most people here dont even know that its out there. (Local news is a joke!) I just thought it was a comical observation.

As for xTD-10 (can we just call it Xavier or something?), it needs to pick up more of a notherly (WNW or even NW) forward motion, or the mountains in Cuba are going to destroy whatever development it has in the next 2 days.

JV
yeah well most cyclones wobble and motion is usually determined by a set period of time but i so see the southern wobble. its not looking as good as it was earlier this morning and think the chances of here reaching ts strength befor landfall might be slimming. will see what recon discovers at 500 but she will be making landfall in the next few hours
This is the way us old folks like to see you boys play. Lefty, Stormtop both of you guys offer lots of insight and information to the newby's like me. I realy enjoy the information that yal post. Thanks guys.
Big storm top, what a gwaan yu a the real weather man. Mi deh yah down a Jamaica and it hot bad. Any wave that come in the caribbean waters will just feed of the hot water not warm and also any storm that comes to jamaica is a junky storm that loves Marijuana. They pass over jamaica get high and then intensify and destroys anything in its path
theres tremendous flare up right behind lefty's wave.

Link
Hey guys,

I've been staring at these sea-surface temperatures for weeks, and something keeps bothering me. Why is the water so warm at the mouth of the Mississippi? I would have thought the the cold water flowing down the river should have produced colder temps around the delta?

Just curious

JV
yeah thats my feeling valence is that if it hits cuba its done but if it moves north of cuba and even over southern florida it will still have a good chance to develop. i really want to see the pressure start to drop befor i get real interested in her as they are still high but i have and will continue to develop.

205 disscussion shows the td 11 is oicking up speed just slightly, slimming chances of ts formation, we will see. also the convection over africa is still shown as a blowup of the itcz and no low pressure yet, notice i say yet as we will need to watch that one closely as well

eastern tropical wave has changed little and still has a very low central pressure 1008. convection south and west of the center has been persistent probly hellping to keep what little prganasation she has together. nhc still expects development in 24-48 hrs so she will still need to be watched.

here is a link to the surface anylasis

Link
I beleive that the worst is yet to come. Either Katrina,Lee,Maria or Nate one of these hurricanes will pass over or near Jamaica as Cat 4-5 and then head to the USA,possible Florida
the second wave coming off the african coast has really got its act together..its almost to 20 degrees..i think we have a depression here by tomorrow night that is about 34 hours...then after that rapid strengthing will occur and a westward movement will develop..about the end of the weekend it should be affecting the islands in the caribbean as a cat 3...all the data i have looked at this is going to be something really serious and its just to early to tell if this will affect the us yet or just go into the yucatan...where will the azores high be will there be any strong troughs coming down ..where will the jet stream be at the time it reaches s of cuba....this one will be sommething to recon with and im sure recon are not looking forward to flying into this one..i wish i could go on one of there flights with them...the closes i got was on a recon plane at keesler but it was grounded...oh how i wish that copuld happen...i would go in a second to fly into katrina...
valence

i believe the warm water where mississippi is caused by the drought in midwest less water flow and that it has been a very warm summer
I know a girl named Katrina, and i wouldn't mind flying . . . nevermind.

But seriously guys (and gals), its been fun, but i've got work to, so i'll be leaving for a while.

JV
like i said stormt until i see some pressure drops with that system it will take sometime to develop. there is not low pressure center meaning atleast 12-24hrs from a pressure formation at best. so will have to wait and watch. not so sure the more western wave won't be a td and than katrina befor the other system moving off right now. gotta see the pressure fall
Again StormTop I beleive you man I think the next system to develop will head to the Caribbean and hit my beautiful Jamaica man we have seen Dennis damage our north cost and Emily recked our south coast and possible Katrina will top the two and reck Jamaica. It is so wierd that Gilbert and Ivan 2 huge hurricane came to jamaica in September. Sept 12, and September 10-11. Ivan lasted at least 2 days here in Jamaica
man that sucks valence. i am so glad i don't have to work lol. all i do is watch the kids all day, wife makes all the big bucks and spends them too lol
same here lefty just sit back and watch the tropics and send my football and race horsing picks out to my clients..i do all the housework and cook ...i love to cook though...
That's interesting Stormtop....seriously..do you have any horse racing picks for today. Also, do you do baseball picks?
microwave data of td 11 shows a open central convection
'wall" open to the north about 40-50 miles off shore. most of the ll circulation has started to make its landfall. she might be at ts strenth but do not see a closed central "wall" so this may not be. here is a link to the 85 ghz microwave data

Link
stormtop

are your predictions good, average, fair?
idocook and house work too. i also take classes at the localcollege here, figure another 10 yrs i migth get my degree lol
may i ask who on here has their own home weather station and would like to hear from the experts what brand they are using??
i must mention the wall feature has gotten more pronounce the past six hours which could mean it is ts strength and the recon flight will show that it is, but the open wall susggest it might not be any stronger than that
i don't have my own but i have a link with the one at the elementary school tight behind my house, less than 1000 feet so i get most of my local dtat from that but once the winds hit 50 she usually goes down
yes cosmic i have a few at evangeline tonight...football i have my morning line tomorroe and baseball i dont deal with it...
lefty

what am i suppose to be seeing here..isee the eye to the s and well pronounced banding right?
lefty

this is the link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg
yeah and the wall in yellow is open, showing it is quite orhanised but since measured winds were 25kts at advisory it might be stronger than that say 35 kts but doubt it is any stronger than that and with its souther wobble and proximity to land in the next few hours she will be all the way on land
for what wabit..if you are talking about race horsing i have close to 45 clients and yes i do ok...i just sent out my football special a few days ago...i have around 15 clients for that...its cheap you will never get it as cheap from a sports service...last year in college i was 60% in the pros i was 52%...i did fairly well i had about 100 clients last year for football..
no thats not the link. that is a dvorak ir intesity, i have a link to microwave imagery, i will supply again and its really usefull to see the organsational structure of a system

Link
stormtop

did you start out just for fun your own picks, or with a thought to make it your job so to speak
yes lefty i agree jose but a weak jose 45mph...this should be on shore in a few hours if it keeps moving sw..
lefty a better ir pic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR2/20.jpg
no wabit i take it serious...i have been playing the horses and betting football since i was 15......
stormtop

good for you. sounds very interesting
i liike it wabit it does past the time and it makes it easier now that you can bet right off the net...
yes white very nice link thanks. its shortwave which is more usefull for night time use. since we have a system with a cdo blocking any veiw of what its doing the dvorak loop and the microwave imagery will be best suited to determin itensity. also since the center is so close to land while the winds mught be that strong they may not be that strong when the recon flight gets there so all in all she might never get classified as a ts. next advisory isn't till 500 or so so she might be starting landfall at that time
lefty

so that is not an eye in the dvorak pic or just the center of intensity?
well biys feels like a little xbox time, going to jump on madden and play on line will still post just not in much detail so if my posts are short and sweet you know why
stormtop

do you have a home weather station?
wabit i have a few instruments but no i dont have a home weather station...
just the an area with the most intesnce dvorak clasification and is over the center. u could use it to determint the center but for an exact center fix when you have no visible eye is to use the other imgs all together
lefty

but wouldn't the center of intensity be the eye?
stormtop

your thoughts
lefty

heres a visible aand the center in it and the dvorak look to be the same

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
about what wabit im sorry...
are you all talking about jose are the disturbance n of cuba..
stormtop

about using dvorak vs use ir or vis
stormtop
jose
i like to use ir and water vapor wabit it gives you a better take on where the center is and i occasionally use the mic imagery as well...the best i think is the wv if its over land you can find the center very easy with the water vapor however at night ir is what i use...
i use all the imgs ir wv, dvorak and micorwave
acooding to satellite loops tropical depression has stopped to a crawl just nnw of veracruz...it has moved little in the last hour...i wonder if the low is affecting its movement on the southern part of the yucatan pen.....
stormtop

the reason I asked about alec was per sainthuurifans post 4:00 am last nite didn't know how to get to that site.
a big burst of convection has developed near the center i think this is definitely a strong tropical storm ..what worries me it has not moved and the high is being squashes by the cool front over the central gulf...jose needs to get inland quick before this high weakens and lets jose come back nw or nnw...i dont like these mexican storms especially when they are not moving...
what site wabit......look at jose and you tell me what you see...
i don't see it not moving storm t. it has moved quite a bit and will be making landfall in the next 3-4 hours. there is a nice burst of convection right over part of the center so i would suspect she is probly a ts now but we will see
stormtop

looks like 11 has slowed down, and is having trouble due to the land massbut if the high weakens and it turns north we could have a 1or 2 overnite
yes wabit thats the same thing im seeing....veracruz has winds out of the north at 40 sustained...
but thats a lot of ifs
stormtop
this is what saint sad last nite, but didn't know who alec was am a newbe

wabbitt you experienced camille i was on alec blog jekins tried to compare it to charly and said camille and freddy were not bad because they hit rural area but he got blasted by so now he sees thelight just seems if they dont hitfla no one remembers andrew was not camille nor was charly jeanne or frances nor were they freddy you agree.
stormtop
later i was asked to go to alec's blog but didnt know how to get there

must drop off for a while will be on later
well alec is a personal friend of mind who works for the slidell natl weather service...
td 11 is now ts jose