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TD 10?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:14 PM GMT on August 12, 2005

The low pressure system in the mid-Atlantic continues to look impressive on IR satellite imagery tonight, with good deep convection near the center and an improving upper-level outflow. The latest Quikscat satellite winds show a well-defined surface circulation at 10.5N 45W, with maximum winds of 20 kt. The early model run tracks are divergent, with the BAM Medium model taking the system west then west-southwest, and the GFDL taking the system northwest. The GFDL solution can be discounted, given that the steering flow appears to be solidly west to west-northwest. The SHIPS intensity model brings the storm to near hurricane strength by Monday. Keep in mind that early computer models done before a tropical depression forms are very unreliable.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Amazing....Heard it hear first. Wonder how the high pressure ridge will effect it.
Me too. I wonder If it will Make landfall where I live as a hurricane. I live in Ormond Beach, Florida (Just North of Daytona Beach)
Irene, though is definitely moving west. I was on weather.com and I looked at the satellite of the Atlantic Ocean, and the last two frames showed Irene moving to the west toward Florida.
Another point of view on Irene to consider. Evan you can't predict movement by looking at 2 frames of a satellite loop.

"Path? That's the million dollar question of the evening. Satellite-derived products hint at a weakness still in the ridge near where Irene is right now, but the main shortwave trough creating this weakness is about to pass the storm on by. Steering currents get pretty weak from here, as the main band of westerly flow has moved back to the north over the course of the day. An upper-low to the southwest of the storm likely interacted with it for a period of time earlier today, resulting in a temporary movement back towards the west-northwest. Overall, however, a general 300-315deg motion is what we've seen for the past day or two. There are signs of the ridge trying to build in a bit to the north of the storm, but whatever is going on there right now is relatively weak at this time.

Given all of this, a slow deceleration of the storm as it moves northwest is likely over the next 2-3 days. It should slow to nearly stationary sometime this weekend, but I do not believe that it will occur near 70W, as the 5pm NHC package advertises. More likely, the storm will draw a bit closer to shore -- perhaps close to 72 or 73W -- before slowing down. The upper-low that has been in the Gulf is showing signs of lifting northward; as it does, in conjunction with a digging trough in the west with a shortwave moving through Idaho at this time, the flow should amplify to some degree in the east...likely with a narrow trough along the east coast and ridging further out to sea. No scenario is certain at this point in time by any means, but the threat south of Charleston is over and decreasing to the north of there. I believe the storm will remain offshore, perhaps brushing the coastline from 200-300 miles away, and ultimately move out to sea in the westerly flow. Given the strength of the westerly flow, I don't currently put much stock in the NOGAPS solution of it slowing and cutting off north of Bermuda in 5-6 days.

Nevertheless, everyone from Charleston northward should continue to watch this storm, as any prolonged movement to the west increases the threat to the coast. This may prove to be a close call -- with an amplifying flow pattern to potentially thank for that -- and the track is subject to change."
Sefl, my point about the models was not the storm's current track - whether its W, WNW or NW, it's still on a collision course with the East Coast - but rather, that with Irene, they have consistently turned this storm north then out to sea throughout its journey, and that their forecasted turn to the north, in the latest run, may also turn out to be too early.
Nobody can predict on what the storm will actually do, only on what it might do, or will most likely do.
you're right nobody can predict what a storm will do but if you notice Jeff has stoped talking about Irene and started to focus on (possible) TD 10 so that says just to me that maybe the threat is over of Irene impacting land in the u.s.
Self...why aren't you giving credit to where you plagarized your posting from?
Its in quotes and noted as another point of view.
These predictions came from accuweather.com from a meteorologist. Jeff and anyone else can you tell me if any of these predictions are possible and just how possible?

2. The satellite loop this morning suggests to me that Irene may be going more west then northwest the past couple of hours.

3. Also, while Irene is going around the base of the ridge, the upper level low that was off South Carolina earlier this week has moved to the northern Bahamas this morning and perhaps that westerly shift in the cloud motion is related to Irene being squeezed between the ridge and that upper level low. Cloud motions ahead of Irene continue to go to the southwest at about 32N. At about 35N the cloud motion is to the northeast. We could be seeing Irene sensing the weakness off South Carolina and is trying to head into that weakness. Just an observation.

4. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on the westerly track of Irene until I see the motion of Irene past 70w. Call me stubborn, but I do not trust models, in a situation like this. Keep in mind, that the models take into account history, and as I have said before, historically, storms in that area have moved northwest and recurved out to sea, and have not hit the Carolina's. That's a fact. Even if Irene were to go west, the upper level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico would end up forcing the storm north anyway.

5. The other scenario that must be looked out is a slowing storm that basically gets stuck under the ridge and is sitting off the Carolina's by a few hundred miles next week.


Good evening to all, I'm very new to this, so please forgive me if I am not following some sort of etiquitte here.(obviously no spelling bee winner, either) . Good to see others raising thier eyebrows at soon-to-be Jose', I am in Jacksonville, Fl so I keep my eyes to the east as well.
12. SEFL
I didn't plagiarize anything....I quoted it and I never said it was my opinion. If you are asking where it came from...it is a met. on the flhurricane site.

plagiarize:To use and pass off (the ideas or writings of another) as one's own.

If you are going to make accusations you should first learn how to spell the word then learn what it means.
dude...you won't win the bee either...this site isn't for spelling anyway.....you made no mention of it belonging to him...I KNOW where it came from otherwise why would I have mentioned it?
can we let this petty stuff go about spelling bees and plagiarism and talk about tropical weather! I'm sure if you search on google you'll find a blog on spelling bees and plagiarisms and you can talk about that garbage there
So aquak9 what is your prediction for irene and have you guys in FL stop watching & worrying about irene all together?
us in FL are still hoping the high builds and sends irene to us...stormtop is right on his predictions i hope...screw the models!
11pm advisory has it still at T. Storm and they also say that the high is extended furhter west and is stronger than anticipated
if that high is stronger than anticipated, why the hell do they still have her going out to sea???!!!! why not coming back? ^#&@* people...
whirlwind, just because the high is a bit stronger doesn't mean it is strong enough to block Irene from recurving out to sea and instead send it into the US coast.
greeaaat!! thanks STORMTOP...u had my hopes up..not only did I lose $100 bet but I have to show up to work next week. Not to mention no storm...
where is StormTop with a new prediction?
11pm advisory also says the storm is going to move west more than they forcasted but will go out to sea
Predictions always touted to be the top
have once again been a flop
Perhaps a little more humility
and a little less surety
would spare us all some acridity
this bothers me...Ever since about noon today this storm has been moving west north west with due west jogs but the NHC is STILL saying northwest and they even said that the recon found a more westward motion.This bothers me WHY would they the direction it is going in???????????
I am puzzeled as to why they would show a false movent about the storm,oh by the way it sucked more dry air into it so it shrunk again lol for now at least.
This a clear noticable movement and isn't a trick playing with your eyes this is making me mad lol.
It looks like its moving wnw
I would be very watchful in NC regardless of what the models are saying this is not a jog this has been occuring since a little after noon today and has actually jogged due west tempoarily this thing right now isn't followin the track.
Hello. This is my first time commenting here, but I have been reading the blogs for several weeks. My observation is that NHC has gotten so wrapped up in the technology of "computer models" that they have forgotten that a good meterologist should look out the window to see if it's raining!
Models are just guides, and Irene has historically confused the models since day 1. I hope the folks on the east coast keep their guard up!
I think we in jax are totally ignoring Irene, unless it decides to pull an Ivan and go on an East Coast United States Tour.
No matter what, I bet Florida is out. If this actually becomes a hurricane, it will most likely begin a Northwesterly track again. It is parallel to a part of Florida that almost never gets direct hits from Hurricanes.
ok, stupid question. I read somewhere that the coast of Georgia's never been hit. Is this true?
No. I recall seeing a hurricane that hit Bunswick. And maybe a few that hit the Savannah area.
Click Here aquak9 Two storms hit the Georgia Coast in 1898, one in the Brunswick area and one in the Savannah area
whirlwind dont worry things change but im sticking by my prediction i made yesterday..irene will stall off the east coast the high will bride in towards the west pushing irene in the direction of the middle fla coast.....a hurricane watch will be delayed until monday because of the stalling by irene...irene will become a hurricane today if she isnt one now...when irene stalls all bets are off where she could go and i will say this for the last time irene wont go out to sea....ill be back with more new data around 10am...and btw the 650 mb high is getting stronger and irene shoulsd start to move towards the west today before stalling later tonight....florida is not out of the woods yet you guys better pay attention to this dont let your guard down.......
Thank you evan, wow what access you guys have at your fingertips. Storm I read yours and I got the chills. No it is too soon for Florida...Irene should just head east young woman and go away...but Africa is fixin to spit out a bunch of crap and there's where I worry.
im sorry guys this storm is not moving nw i dont know what the nhc is trying to prove here...irene is moving due west.....also irene is definitely a hurricane now....as soon as a recon plane gets out there it will be classified and also irene has not been moving much in the last 3 hours..i think the stall is about to take place right near the 30 degrees.....this will be interesting today to see if irene bends back towards the wsw and how much influence the middle low has in the islands on it....and how strong the high will eventually be...
It is moving west north west.
Ya I rekon you are right.
jed i have a pretty good fix and it sure looks to me it has slowed down cosiderably and is moving due west..according to the satellite loops and water vapor charts....
Well we will see but I think it is over we are both wrong it is dont the only possiblity is the carolinas now but even thats slipping it was moving more westward yesterday but is clearly moving northwest now.
Florida is now almost completely gone it is like wining the lottery at this point and even the carolinas is becoming less and less likely.
yes jed i hear you but if it stalls like i expect all bets are off where it will go...tonight i expect a stall...we will see then...
About the other tropical wave. look at this. . .

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131512
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE... LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES EATS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTHWEST
OVER OPEN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
I dont think Irene is a hurricane eather in fact dry air has caused it to weaken a bit it seems.It has lossed it's eyewall structure and has shurunk again due to dry air.
Yes it prabably will I will not be surprised and something this far south I dont think it will turn out sea that would be unlikely.
STORMTOP: If this stalls and moves toward the Florida Coast, it would not be the middle Florida Coast, It would be around St. Augusting (Northeast Florida). Just an observation.
WW07--I like Sandrick better, he's much more fun to read. Jed what do you mean "florida is almost completely gone" you mean that our chances of being hit by irene are nill, or that fla's been hit so many times already that there's nothing left? Either way, I gotta agree. Evan- St. A is my backyard, so don't go there.
I thought I was the only weather obsesser. My friends think I'm crazy. Wow. An entire site full of people who look at NOAA more than I do. Love it.
The storm is moving directly in the path of the carolinas now. I do think that Florida is all clear at least until the next Tropical Cyclone Forms in the Atlantic.
Storm,

from what i could tell in all of your previous post (including emily), you are always miss guided.
51. WSI
Initially I thought the storm would come in around Myrtle Beach, SC as a CAT1. So far my intensity forecast isn't bad, but my track was way off. The high just isn't as strong. In my extremely rookie opinion (read, I don't know what I am talking about :), I believe Florida is out of the woods with Irene. In fact, I only think the Carolinas will get waves off Irene. Looks like she will keep going out to sea. Now the next system looks like it may post more of a problem.
Click Here For Visible Satellite Check out that tropical wave! Well defined circulation if you ask me.
Hello.....Guy bye to Irene....look at the water vapor...the upperlevel low moving north thru georgia and then to the northeast.......I thought originally that the high pressure was going to build in strong, which it did but its moving out fast with the upperlevel low following on its footsteps.......Irene is history.....on to TD #10, or should I say soon to be TD#10.......its looks good, but small like Irene.......everyone have a good weekend!
ok, evan, where and when is jose going?
and don't say St Augustine!
The visible loop this morning clearly shows the surface circulation center of Irene moving northwest. The chance of a North Carolina hit at this point is pretty slim. Intensity-wise, Irene is looking ill. As has been the case since yesterday it is being sheared from the east, and it is currently moving over the cold pool of water left by Harvey.

TD10 appears to have formed east of the islands. As someone pointed out, it is yet another tiny Atlantic cyclone. It has been a while since we've been able to watch a large system traverse the Atlantic basin. With regard to the track, the system has already jumped north a couple degrees overnight and the water vapor shows an upper trough digging quite far to the south all the way down to 10 degrees in front of the new TD. The models almost unanimously take it northwest and curve it out to sea even farther east than Irene. It is still very early, but that certainly looks reasonable. Harvey helped to keep Irene out to sea and now there is a chance Irene may help to weaken the western Atlantic ridge over the next several days which would keep Jose moving northwest and then north, instead of west to west-northwest if there was a strong Bermuda high stuck in place.
Jeff has a new update and new comments thread.
Stormtop-= Irene looks like crap now. and it really looks like shes moving N. what happened to the high?
Will yall understand that Irene would be large but due to the dry air has caused the circulation to shrink,as the outerbands extend further and further the wind field extends to but outer bands have trouble forming and thus only an inner core of storm can continue to generate convetion causing the rest of the circulation I have been watching this storm and reminds me how jeanne stared.Small because of dry air and only dry air but then the dry air relaxed and the storm tripled if not quadrupled in size and interestingly enough with jeanne there was a large eye with a small area of deep convetion like Irene but if you look closely at visible satelite you could see the low level circulation was very large but because of the dry air it keeps the storm small and the rest of the circulation is weak and has no effects whatsoever other than fast moving cumulus and a an isolated squall or 2 and.And the because the outer bands cannot develop the the res of the circualtion remains weak and unnoticable but when the dry air leaves the outerbands develop causing strong winds in the rest of of the circuation and the unoticeable rest of the circuation becomes very nociceable with tropical storm force winds and tropical squalls.That is why Irene appears small at the moment,remember yesterday Irene began to grow in size because the dry air allowed outer bands to develop.
That is why Irene has shrunk,the reson for the less impresive over structure is becuase of an area f cooler water and Irene is struggling to hold on and may never reach hurricane strength now possible td 10 would does have a possiblity to reach hurricane strength over the next week.So far I a scepticle of this 18 to 21 storm prediction because since Emily the tropics have been disagreeing with NOAA's prediction and has been looking ver hostile since and was much better looking for development in july,though this may change in the short term the tropics look fairly quiet compared to the prediction.
Because the dry air retreated temporarily typo.Sorry bad typos there.
Stormtop.. here is my conclusion: Irene cant come west anymore. Thants the conclusion. Shes falling apart and there is no hope now for a FL visit. What the @#$% happened to the high? As much as I hate to, I have to say the NHC are looking right for their predictions....

Update?