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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

TD 10?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:14 PM GMT on August 12, 2005

The low pressure system in the mid-Atlantic continues to look impressive on IR satellite imagery tonight, with good deep convection near the center and an improving upper-level outflow. The latest Quikscat satellite winds show a well-defined surface circulation at 10.5N 45W, with maximum winds of 20 kt. The early model run tracks are divergent, with the BAM Medium model taking the system west then west-southwest, and the GFDL taking the system northwest. The GFDL solution can be discounted, given that the steering flow appears to be solidly west to west-northwest. The SHIPS intensity model brings the storm to near hurricane strength by Monday. Keep in mind that early computer models done before a tropical depression forms are very unreliable.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.