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TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on September 22, 2007

Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.

Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.

This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.

I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

97L is disorganized.

There's also NO low level circulation center (I see a few in here saying that there is one).

There's turning in the low level cloud field, but no center of circulation...
Taz,

someone found a satelite on 96L earlier from the University of Colorado (I think). I forgot who, but maybe they will re-post it for you.

Sorry Colorado State
TWO=tropical weather outlook
2505. OUSHAWN
EYE,

Yes, we know what you said...I said it too but you don't have to keep pointing it out to everyone. I'm sure you have been wrong before just like I have. Learn how to act in being right about something.

JP was right all along about TD10 yet I was wrong. When you are wrong about the next storm I want to see you stress to everyone on here time and time again how wrong you were just like you are now about being right...however, I don't see you doing that so do us all a favor and leave it alone and move on.

Shawn
NRL updated the location of former TD 10. little confused about this...
td10?
Same thing with the remanant low of 13E. It's still alive
Taz,

No floater may just mean it's not yet within range of the satellite from which they run the floaters, you know. I don't think it's some kind of storm discrimination.

10LNONAME.25kts-1005mb-304N-890W

As of 4 PM EDT...
2511. Patrap
Thats Just a Mislabled Current NRL image...
taz, the floater will come when the whole system is within the GOES east zone.
Here you go with a floater from cira which can be used for 96L...
2515. Patrap
GOES-12 IR Loop GOM

94L Link
2516. beell
...note the absence of 94L from the map. . .
Noted Baha. A subtle hint from these folks.
thanks-(still watchin tho)
may be that is 94L and its now in where TD 10 ues to be
2518. Patrap
Current NOLA Radar in Motion...Lots of Rain and Thunderstorms heading onshore

Link
I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just guessing?
ok when you think that will be?
2521. MrSea
96L has dry african dust to the north...the only limiting factor
From the 5:30 TWO on 96L:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

If its well-organized, then why isnt it a TD? lol

The Eastern half of the GOM is loaded with moisture. 94L should bring a lot of that moisture towards Texas.
We had another rainy day in my area of S.W. Florida.
WE are having significant rainfall in Mobile.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 6:08 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

ok when you think that will be?

I posted a floater you can use for 96L a little up in the blog.
Posted By: MrSea at 10:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

96L has dry african dust to the north...the only limiting factor


Yes, but since it is north of 96L, it shouldnt have a major effect on it
Posted By: extreme236 at 3:09 PM PDT on September 23, 2007.

From the 5:30 TWO on 96L:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

If its well-organized, then why isnt it a TD? lol


that is what i amm not geting at all 236 it sould be but its not
I am starting to gain a little frusteration with the NHC. 96L is CLEARLY a depression....perhaps even a tropical storm...And they still as of 5 pm have it an invest what is going on?
center of 94L appears to be around 90W,21N entering the gulf finally.
96L and 97L dos have a ch of be comeing a cat 5 storm later on
I think the NHC is being way too conservative this time.
It looks like your are in for a wet evening in NOLA.
Posted By: LesterNessman at 10:08 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?



I, for one, do not make any uneducated guesses.

I'm sure I come to my predictions the same way any 'professional meteorologist' would.

Meticulous hours spent combing through data, which would include satellite observation, surface observations, model guidance, and personal experience.
Im guessing the nhc is waiting for dvorak to go up for 96L
speaking of the 'ignore' button....just my 'uneducated' opinion...
Great name Saymobeel!
I smell fish with 96L...Still early but could very well be.
I hope QS catches 96L
Posted By: LesterNessman at 6:08 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?


Isn't it possible to be educated in meteorology without being a professional meteorologist?? You make the two sound mutually exclusive.

In any case, quite a few people here are making educated guesses (also sometimes known as hypothoses) even though they are not working mets. Others are students; maybe their guesses are "educating"?

Posted By: hurricane23 at 10:15 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

I smell fish with 96L...Still early but could very well be.


It all depends on the high pressure ridges...too early to tell but its possible
2542. Patrap
Posted By: LesterNessman at 5:08 PM CDT on September 23, 2007.
I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?


I am a 47 yr old Weather Hobbyist. Most here are weather hobbyist too.
Except some believe their post are to be taken as a Mets.

Those are often ego fed and not really in tune to the spirit of Dr. Masters Blog.
It is to share information and relevant links for discussion.

There is no such thing as a amateur met.

Always consult your local NWS packages or the NHC for Official information.
2543. eye
NHC compliant hotline

1-800-INVESTS
96L does look fishy.
Taz and extreme,

Well-organized doesn't necessarily dignify an upgrade to a tropical cyclone.

The low pressure is still elongated W-E along several degrees of longitude. I certainly wouldn't classify it as a 'cyclone'
Thanks, My pet peave is hearing reporters say MObul (I bet yours, too)
i am dumbstruck with this... why isnt this a TD yet... by the way, does anyone have a quickscat of 96L??
Taz, give the NHC some time. The storm is far enough out to where they have plenty of time to designate it.
2550. OUSHAWN
I can't believe the center of 94L is just now coming off the YUC...I thought it did that this morning. Now I know why it wasn't able to do anything...it's been on land all day but I can finally see the circulation showing up...finally. See, I was wrong on this one as far as where the circulation has been all day.

Shawn
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:17 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Taz and extreme,

Well-organized doesn't necessarily dignify an upgrade to a tropical cyclone.

The low pressure is still elongated W-E along several degrees of longitude. I certainly wouldn't classify it as a 'cyclone'


If anything it looks more elongated N-S, but I guess they might want to see the QS pass to see how the LLC looks
that was the ascending pass
Posted By: stormyjm at 10:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Taz, press, extreme, et all.... your opinions of landfall, just a guess, know it's too soon to know, but just a humble guess...


My guess is that it effects the antilles, but after that I cant really guess anymore lol
they did 236 here is the new update has of 20:13

Ascending Pass



Descending Pass looks like it miss it


i sure hope that 96L is a fish storm... it would be very good news... because if it ramps up it could be a big one.
hopefully we jinx it, because we called for ingrid to be huge and she died... so keep calling for a monster and you might just scare it off
96L could easily kick T.D. 10's butt.
stormjym...somewhere west of France...lol...
Good afternoon, any more info on the future of 94L from anyone? Thanks.
2561. eye
QS just looks ok
Extreme,

As you can see from the QuikSCAT data the low is elongated W-E from 25-28W longitude
2563. beell
old, obsessed hobbyist with 15 yrs of self-paced/home-schooled internet based education.

although this type of curriculum has led to large fundamental gaps in my knowledge...which is why this is a great site. Either gently, or w/a blowtorch, someone will set you straight. Or, we can always wait for the hindcast.
well, I guess QS missed it...
2565. eye
94l is just a unorganized rainmaker due to the shear from the ULL off the Texas coast, the ULL is also rocketing the moisture up to LA/MS
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:23 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Extreme,

As you can see from the QuikSCAT data the low is elongated W-E from 25-28W longitude


That was the ascending pass...I never said it wasnt elongated any, im just saying something may have changed
thats what i wanted to get at... its still a broad circulation, but getting better.
a depression can be elongated...TD4 was elongated as well
this is where i got it from you see 94L 96L 97L and so on it takes you right too the QS # you want like storm 96 or storm 97 and so on

Link
It doesn't matter which pass it is.

The fact is that it was a very recent pass. 22:11UTC.
Thanks, eye
Posted By: LesterNessman at 5:08 PM CDT on September 23, 2007.
I have noticed lots of "predictions" about storms being named and possible storm paths.

I'm wondering how many of you are professional meterologists and how many others are just making uneducated guesses?



I agree with Patrap 100% -

Always consult your local NWS packages or the NHC for Official information.

But also remember this is a blog. Here you will find many levels of knowledge with respect to the tropics. A few here have a good amount of knowledge, while many like myself may discuss our slightly educated "guesses". We post our opinions and learn as we go. There are others here especially during busy times who just throw out completely wishful guesses. Have fun enjoy and enjoy the blog, but for real weather forecasts, take Pats advice. Consult your local weather forecaster or the NHC.
Extreme,

It is a low pressure, not a cyclone. I end it here.
Posted By: SaymoBEEL at 10:18 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Thanks, My pet peave is hearing reporters say MObul (I bet yours, too)


LOL.... Good to see you two on here, its been a while but glade to see ya....

Taco :0)
Guess I should apologize for my previous question, it seems to have offended some people. I did not realize there were that many folks that had all the free time to do all the research following the weather "for fun".
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:27 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Extreme,

It is a low pressure, not a cyclone. I end it here.


I get that, although I wish QS I could have seen a QS pass
Taz,

Has a T# been posted for 97L yet? Also, what is the link that I can use to see the latest T#s? Thanks
keep in mind..tonights quikscat is coming soon for 96L.
Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:26 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

It doesn't matter which pass it is.

The fact is that it was a very recent pass. 22:11UTC.


It does matter lol...QS only runs twice a day, ascending is in the morning...the time on there is not the time it is actually run
How are you MobileBay....:0)

I gess it is raining where you are uh???
Posted By: heretolearninPR at 3:29 PM PDT on September 23, 2007.

Taz,

Has a T# been posted for 97L yet? Also, what is the link that I can use to see the latest T#s? Thanks


nop wait in tell 23:45
This site is what it is. The NHC and NWS have pros. I look at both. Even the outlier predictions are discussed here by the group and dicounted most of the time. Sometimes these outliers are fears many folks in the area have ,but are afraid to ask about. Discussing them, to a point, serves a purpose, too. Sometimes, as in Ivan for one, the outlier turns out to be true. Discussion and information exchange are what is important.
It is pouring right now. Really needed it.
and those quikscat passes are from 0700 UTC this morning...they are very old and out of date.
2588. dearmas
Lots of rain here in Tampa. Got poured on at the bucs game.
Posted By: sullivanweather at 6:26 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
It doesn't matter which pass it is.

The fact is that it was a very recent pass. 22:11UTC.


the time of the pass is at the bottom...and the time the image was generated is at the top.


so that is not the time of the quikscat.
Posted By: Weather456 at 10:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

and those quikscat passes are from 0700 UTC this morning...they are very old and out of date.


Exactly...the times on the QS passes are confusing...i guess its just easier to remember ascend in the morning, descend at night
Posted By: LesterNessman at 5:28 PM CDT on September 23, 2007.
Guess I should apologize for my previous question, it seems to have offended some people. I did not realize there were that many folks that had all the free time to do all the research following the weather "for fun".


No need to apologize. We're all here to chat and have a good time and maybe learn a bit!
It has stopped here for now but have been waiting on this all day.... LOL but at least I got my BBQ Baby Back Ribs done first....hehehe


Taco :0)
Last question: any outlooks on future of 97L? Thanks again!
2595. beell
Less,
my grass is 8 ft tall and we have to "jiggle" stuff around here to get it to work...
Does anyone have the 'free time' to give me an 'undeducated' explanation of 'ascending' v. 'descending' as used in this context...
whats not fight overe what time QS comes out whats talk about 96L and 97L any thing new
SayMoBEEL,
Yes me too... Sometimes I will just lurk but I will give some good advice when asked LOL...Although I do chat with JP alot for good info if you know what I mean...

Taco :0)
Posted By: presslord at 10:36 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

Does anyone have the 'free time' to give me an 'undeducated' explanation of 'ascending' v. 'descending' as used in this context...


well, basically its just the times they are done at for the most part...the ascending pass is in the morning, and the descending is in the evening
Link

Long range radar from Mobile :(
2602. eye
nothing new Taz
2604. Patrap
QuikSCAT Storm Page

The storm centered imagery presented on this page are generated based on storm center files provided by NRL(Naval Research Laboratory at Monterey). These files are updated whenever new information about active storms become available, and the imagery is updated shortly after reciept of these files.

QuikSCAT is a polar orbiting satellite with an 1800 km wide measurement swath on the earth's surface. Generally, this results in twice per day coverage over a given geographic region. Wind retrievals are done on a 25km x 25km spatial scale. For additional QuikSCAT information please visit


Link
nothing new on either invests...dmax will be approaching on 97L soon though...I guess now we wait for QS passes
DMax with 96L overnight which should bring to/near TD status.

Hurricane Charley taught me watch the weather and make predictions outside the view point of the "professionals."
On that Friday morning the "professional" were telling us the storm would go by us 100+ miles off shore.
At 2pm in the afternoon the wind was blowing 110+ mph and the roof was blown off our business.
2609. Patrap
podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/quikscat

Link
Les,

It wasn't the question itself so much as that it only allowed for a no-no answer, as in "are you still beating your wife?"

Are you new here? I don't remember having seen ur handle before . . . If so, welcome to the hurlyburly that is the blog . . .
thanks extreme, realize it's 'just' an invest so far, I'll check back early in the AM
this is for 97L from the main page

Wind: 30 MPH Location: 10.9 56.4W Movement: W


this is for 96L


Wind: 30 MPH Location: 7.1 29.4W Movement: W


Saymobeel, is it going to rain all night? No ribs here Taco, lucky you. We are having Arbys. No cookin for me...whooohooo.
94L finally firing convection near the center as moves nnw near 90.5W 21.5N
Does anyone know the service or server name to load NWS radar, satellite data, etc. into ArcGIS without having to use something like Weatherbug?
Hmmmm, I can't pull up the computer models for 97. Has anyone posted it? Or can anyone post it?
NOUS42 KNHC 231730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SUN 23 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-121


4. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 13.0N 60.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 25/1200Z.

yes, looks like 94L is finally flaring convection near the center area...shear ranges from 10-15kts or so over the center
here you go it takes it up too 86kt in 120hrs

lol
2624. beell
FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page (Navy site).
Click on your storm of interest on the left-look at bottom center of page-find QSCAT in the table and look at "last pass", "next pass" and beyond if desired.
I "think" this is good info-
Link
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:48 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

here you go it takes it up too 86kt in 120hrs


I wouldnt put too much faith in the ships model yet...wait till it develops (if it does)
236 did you see my post about the HH too the WINDWARD ISLANDS????
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:49 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

236 did you see my post about the HH too the WINDWARD ISLANDS????


Yep, should be interesting :-)
The area being processed now is where 96L is located

MobileBay,
I'm hunkered down . I think our lawns will be green for a while.
236 is the HH going to WINDWARD ISLANDS on monday cant tell on the time it said on it
Current recon plane for tomorrow is that they are scheduled to fly in 94L tomorrow at Noon EDT, and 97L at 2pm EDT tomorrow
dos the HH have more then 2 storms at a time or 3 storm at a time do they have more then one Recon can they send up more if they need to?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 10:54 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

dos the HH have more then 2 storms at a time or 3 storm at a time do they have more then one Recon can they send up more if they need to?


Dont worry Taz, they have enough planes to send out
TWC tropical update just now didnt even mention 97L. Skipped right over it.
2637. eye
gut tells me 94 will be canceled, again.
thats good 236 looks like we may need them with 97L and 96L
Good Evening.
Sure looks like we are about to get a bucket-load of rain here at 11n 61w. Sure could use some too, its been a bone-dry 3 weeks with 33/34 c temps.
The Tropical Atlantic looks like it is supposed to look, this time of year. You guys can go ahead and say it " we TOLD you so........" LOL
I'm still reserving my judgement !
Did the term "fish storm" originate here on Wunderground? It sounds funny hearing TWC and FOX mets using it.
HERE is a UTC world time clock for those who are having trouble converting. It helps me alot.
extreme-

check out the latest visible loop, doesn't seem that the shear is letting up. the clouds on the west side drifting south. also, the east side might get some help from the complex rotating around the H in yucatan chanel. could 94L become a depression tonight?
Posted By: eye at 10:56 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

gut tells me 94 will be canceled, again.


maybe, it all depends on how it looks tomorrow...it hasnt been offshore long (if it even is offshore, which it may not be)
Posted By: woodlandstx at 10:59 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

extreme-

check out the latest visible loop, doesn't seem that the shear is letting up. the clouds on the west side drifting south. also, the east side might get some help from the complex rotating around the H in yucatan chanel. could 94L become a depression tonight?


the earliest I would expect 94L to develop, if at all, would be when recon finishes up tomorrow assuming they go in
2647. OUSHAWN
I have to admit...94L is now showing some life since it has finally come off the YUC...lol. I can't tell if those are storms caused by the heat of the day and land from the YUC that are traveling offshore or if it's actually storms trying to fire up around the center of circulation. Need a little more time to see I think. If it is the center firing off storms than maybe 94L is not dead quite yet...I could be...just could be...eating some crow here.

Shawn
I think they are just heat convection thunderstorms over the yucatan. They are initiated because of the circulation of 94L, but they can not be considered a sign that the storm is strengthening. Only convection over water can indicate that.
When I flew in/out of Barbados last Saturday, there were 2 HH aircraft parked there. Ingrid was approaching. But I have never seen 2 HH aircraft around here at one time, before that.
Maybe one of them is here in Trinidad now. I'll find out.
Posted By: Sfloridacat5 at 6:41 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Hurricane Charley taught me watch the weather and make predictions outside the view point of the "professionals."
On that Friday morning the "professional" were telling us the storm would go by us 100+ miles off shore.
At 2pm in the afternoon the wind was blowing 110+ mph and the roof was blown off our business.


This post made me curious, so I took a look at NHC's forecast archive for Charley. Turns out the Punta Gorda area was in the white cone every forecast after the Wednesday before the storm hit FL. The problem was, the TV mets in particular, but much of the public, really focused attention on that black line, which, mind u, did at one time indicate the Punta Gorda area as the landfall point. I guess this is why Max Mayfield and the NHC in general started emphasising that the landfall could take place anywhere in the cone. It's a pity most of us have to learn the hard way, instead of really reading and paying attention.

My predictions....94L could possibly be a depression tomorrow after the Recon reports back to its base. 97L on the other hand WILL be a Tropical Storm...Which would make it Karen if not Florenzo (depending on if 96L reaches TS status)
What is the difference in a subtropical and tropical storm. Thanks for all the great info I get here. Keep the Faith moe
P'colaDoug, I heard it here first. Maybe TWC is getting some pointers here.
94l i you look real close the coc may be in the Gulf just off the north tip and you can see some increase in convection where the coc is..
2655. islagal
It's cold here in the Yuc today..
Posted By: Glennydrive at 11:10 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.

What is the difference in a subtropical and tropical storm. Thanks for all the great info I get here. Keep the Faith moe


subtropical systems have broader wind fields and are less symetrical, while tropical systems are more consolidated (less broad) and more symetrical
2658. pam971
Hi everybody,
i m French and live in Guadeloupe,
do you think 96l could be a threat for us?
thanks
A few more sat images of 94L and things will get real interesting, at least on this blog. lol
Baha & SoFl: in Miami they were still saying on the radio that it was going to Tampa - I was in the dentist office & one of the women was on the phone with her daughter on the west coast who was hysterical - they were not expecting it at all. That is one of the reasons why Max Mayfield made it his mantra to say "don't follow the black line"
I think instead of using a black line in the cone, they should use a probability cone, showing different colors in the cone that represent which areas seem to have the highest risk
extreme...I'm pretty sure they have a product almost identical to what you describe
Satellite imagery indicate that tonight's quikscat may reveal a nicely define circulation associated with 96L. Outflow is growing in almost all quadrants due an upper level high over the system, despite a wane in convection but this is typical of developing systems. I have observed that 96L matches the organization of both pre-Dean and pre-Felix, and no other invest this year...even the current ones is near the organization of 96L.


In certain areas you need to watch it until it is past you - sometimes they make crazy turns!!! Another storm they said was going up the west coast of fl, went to bed, woke up with it on top of us. At least it wasn't a bad storm, but we weren't even IN the cone on that one.
I noticed a slight trirl just off the nw yuc as well. Still pretty much exposed.
The NHC website has the option to turn off "the skinny black line" but defaults to it being on. They should reverse that.
2671. OUSHAWN
JP,

Looks like 94L is already trying to pull some of the land moisture into the center of its circulation. Who knows...maybe I wrote this thing off too soon...of course I thought it had been over water for most of the day so I've been way off...lol.

Posted By: zoomiami at 7:14 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Baha & SoFl: in Miami they were still saying on the radio that it was going to Tampa - I was in the dentist office & one of the women was on the phone with her daughter on the west coast who was hysterical - they were not expecting it at all. That is one of the reasons why Max Mayfield made it his mantra to say "don't follow the black line"

Lived in Pt. Charlotte when Charlie hit and this is true. Yes that area was barely in the cone, but the people was totally unpaired because the local (Ft. Myers) station did not put out the real possibilty to the people.
In fact looking at the archived 3-day cones, all day Wednesday Port Charlotte harbour was under the gun. In hindsight, anybody in that area should have been suspicious. But who knew?

I also wonder if the models in their current 07 manifestation, with the kind of data input they are receiving now, would have jumped north the way they did three years ago.

Experience is a harsh teacher, but often an effective one.
Pam in Guadeloupe, HI.
96 L is the area way across the Atl. near Africa. It could indeed get to you, but the one to watch now is 97 L, just East of Trinidad / Barbados.
Misscajun,
Just wondering what are you Testing ????

Taco :0)
Not liking the looks of this..

Link
456 i would post somwe images form the ramsdis floater but i cant.
Try again fan :-)
DMAX will also bring 97L near TD status

me either fan...
Extreme236: As you said, there is a new flareup just starting at 94L. This is because it is just now entering the very warm gulf of Mexico!
hey 23 do you mind saying what are your views on 97L?
96L is now in vie nic baning on it by the way now where that Floater i been waiting for 12hrs so i can make my blog for 96L and 97L

Hey Number1Fan,
I did not get that link that you were trying to do can you try it again...

Thanks Taco :0)
GOES is in rapid scan operation this evening. If you use the NASA Infrared Image you can create loops that have image updates on the average of every 7 minutes. Downside is you have to manually refresh them.
H23 try this link



Anyone with a T.V. or computer with radar could see that Hurricane Charley was heading directly at S.W. Florida. It came off Cuba and made a direct path towards Ft. Myers. Then just as the eye wall was about to move into the Ft. Myers Beach area it shifted slightly to the North and crossed North Captiva.
I kept telling everyone it was coming right at us, while the local meteorologist we're saying it was going North of Tampa. It wasn't until the storm was almost on top of us that the local meteorologist said look out for a direct hit.
I have the radar of Charley moving into the area on tape. It was a really small yet intense storm.
2689. JLPR
yeah both 96l and 97l with the dmax sould get close to td status but i expect more out of 96l
Posted By: Sfloridacat5 at 6:41 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Hurricane Charley taught me watch the weather and make predictions outside the view point of the "professionals."
On that Friday morning the "professional" were telling us the storm would go by us 100+ miles off shore.
At 2pm in the afternoon the wind was blowing 110+ mph and the roof was blown off our business.

This post made me curious, so I took a look at NHC's forecast archive for Charley. Turns out the Punta Gorda area was in the white cone every forecast after the Wednesday before the storm hit FL. The problem was, the TV mets in particular, but much of the public, really focused attention on that black line, which, mind u, did at one time indicate the Punta Gorda area as the landfall point. I guess this is why Max Mayfield and the NHC in general started emphasising that the landfall could take place anywhere in the cone. It's a pity most of us have to learn the hard way, instead of really reading and paying attention.


The TV mets did focus on the black line, however, virtually all of the computer models took Charley on shore near or just above Tampa Bay. That morning the NHC moved the Hurrince warning further up the west coast. Yes, Charley did hit inside the cone, yet the thinking and model guidence was much further up the coast.
94L Just did a Goes close up and that is the Coc at 90/24
Link

WET WET WET
SoFL,

Your post was a timely one, because it reminds us that anyone in the vicinity of a 'cane could potentially find themselves under the gun. Just a wobble or two can make a big difference that close to land.

I also hope television mets are more careful and thorough in their forecasts. And while I don't think they should frighten people unnecessarily, they need to learn to say "prepare for the worst (and this is the worst) but hope for the best".
Tampa: I think you are right about the way the local forecasters played that - most people, not all, will tend to believe what they see and hear. As more people have been exposed to the storms, a level of sophistication has occurred. It didn't exist then.
456 i have that one which which is available to the public.Here is the one i mean is only allowed for cira personnel.

Meteosat 4km VIS/IR2 Floater
The Eustis, FL Tornado caused $6.2 Million in Damege.

http://www.wftv.com/news/14184117/detail.html

Just goes to show you that a weak minor system can still cause great damage.
Sflorida: I'm sure the people you told that it was going to hit told you were wrong and over reacting.
TV mets have been so beat up about panic mongering they're afraid to stick their necks out...most play it very conservative....
Oh, the NASA site is up again? I was having problems with it all day.

And they usually do their refreshes every 7-11 minutes.
MissCajun,
Yes some always predict the worst. I assume you were talking about Psuedo TD 10. What I learned from this blog, the NWS, and other sources was not to cancel plans for Saturday. Sometimes you have to use your own judgement based on all the information.
TV mets have been so beat up about panic mongering they're afraid to stick their necks out...most play it very conservative....

definitely here in miami
2704. beell
94l
If anything does develop, current 850mb steering is NNW or even NW. The approaching CONUS trof is lined up N/S now and pushing E. This is the same trof that picked up xTD10 and ran it N then NE. (also the same trof that a few others mentioned as a factor for 94l). Some of the early model runs indicated a hard left for 94l in the BOC-probably because indications were that the CONUS trof would miss it. Development has been delayed to say the least and this may/may not happen imho.
Suppertime!
97L.INVEST
96L.INVEST
94L.INVEST
11L.JERRY
10L.NONAME

Posted By: presslord at 7:31 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

TV mets have been so beat up about panic mongering they're afraid to stick their necks out...most play it very conservative....


There has to be some happy medium between panic mongering and pretending the storm won't do much harm. Maybe we are a bit closer to finding it now than we used to be. These days I hear tv mets saying things like "we're watching a system in the tropics, and we'll let you know how much it's likely to affect our area" instead of "there's a system out there, but it's not going to affect us so chill".
Misscajun, there are indeed some posts that appear to wish for doom. But the people on here ( and especialy the younger ones ) are often over enthusiastic. It does seem that to be able to say " storm x passed over my house " gives some people some kind of credibility.
I dont believe that anyone is wishing bad things on anyone. Its a site/blog about storms.
Here's a diagram I made. Image A was taken around noon today while image B was taken at 6:45 PM EDT. The wording is red might difficult to see "Deep convection"

Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:30 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
456 i have that one which which is available to the public.Here is the one i mean is only allowed for cira personnel.

Meteosat 4km VIS/IR2 Floater


Neither can I.
21.2 N for 94L, it STILL isn't off the peninsula, or not far, right?? but she be booming.
One of the worst statements TV METS say is.

"This system is WAYYYY out there. Its about 2,000 miles from us..no need to worry about it"

When really, it should be:

"This system is a great deal away, however keep watching to see what happens with this"
2713. DDR
Hey pottery!looks like we'll get some rain from 97L tomorrow?
The gulf be teeming with wetness.
i e mail the SDD about the floaters here iw what they siad

hi David,

The initiation and re-centering of our floaters is now handled by the
Satellite Services Division tropical analysts who keep an eye on them
24x7. These areas should have been put on the website once our
analysts
began tracking them. This is the first season that they have been
given
this responsibility and I'm sure there are still a few bugs to be
worked
out.

Your request for additional floaters has been echoed by others, and we
are hoping to add additional floaters to the system for next years
hurricane season.


Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:44 PM GMT on September 23, 2007.
i e mail the SDD about the floaters here iw what they siad


LOL - thanks Taz!
Any thoughts on if 96L or 97L will develope and ever pose any threat to US??
Ok, so hopefully we will have more floaters for the atlantic next year...yay lol
i didnt know you can email the SSD. I thought even if we tried they would ignore us.
Posted By: Weather456 at 7:41 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:30 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
456 i have that one which which is available to the public.Here is the one i mean is only allowed for cira personnel.

Meteosat 4km VIS/IR2 Floater


Neither can I.

Yes thats the one i have access to but cant post images.Hopefully this thing will push west soon so SSD will get a floater on it.I spoke to a buddy of mine at SSD and from what i heard the floater could be placed sometime mid-morning tommorow.
Thanks 456 for the comparison from noon to 7 p.m. It shows 96L becoming more organized. How long will it take to get to about 60W?
I think the key is to encourage people to maintain a certain level of preparedness throughout the season. If there is a storm in the area, you should become hypervigilant.
Any new coordinates for 97L?
2725. CJ5
96L looks very impressive at I suspect may be a TS in 24 or so hours at this rate. Nice banding, plenty of convection, warm waters, and little shear. I do not see much hindering this storm. I think a W movement is more likely over the next 3 days. Anyone from the EC to MX should keep thier eyes open with this one.

97L looks ok and is in the right area to quickly intensify. Shear will be an issue for a while. I believe this one, if it holds, will move more NW in a few days and DR is in the sights.

Like this am, I am not sure about 94L doing much of anything.
Yes thats the one i have access to but cant post images.Hopefully this thing will push west soon so SSD will get a floater on it.I spoke to a buddy of mine at SSD and from what i heard the floater could be placed sometime mid-morning tommorow.

is it becuz they wont allow you? or some other reason?
Well, the 0Z model runs will be initialized in about 10 minutes or so, so we should get an idea where exactly each system is at (when it comes to the center) and the intensity
Like this am, I am not sure about 94L doing much of anything.
Looks to me like another sprawling system bringing showers to Florida.
96 L could turn out to be the typical "cape verde" type storm // track?
Posted By: Chicklit at 7:47 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
Thanks 456 for the comparison from noon to 7 p.m. It shows 96L becoming more organized. How long will it take to get to about 60W?


4 - 6 days at current speed.
oh one more part i want evere one to no about in there e mail too me

hi David,

The initiation and re-centering of our floaters is now handled by the
Satellite Services Division tropical analysts who keep an eye on them
24x7. These areas should have been put on the website once our
analysts
began tracking them. This is the first season that they have been
given
this responsibility and I'm sure there are still a few bugs to be
worked
out.

Your request for additional floaters has been echoed by others, and we
are hoping to add additional floaters to the system for next years
hurricane season.


dos that help out on why they have not put 96L up on the SDD site yet?
I am trying to figure the mechanism for 94L to turn west. Anyone up to explaining?
2734. DDR
Barbados,I see 3 blobs associated with 97L, im confused,but i think the one furthest east is near the center
Here's an updated image from EUMETSAT...Images update every 15 minutes.

ff
well we have to remember that the SSD only puts floaters out on systems that are within catl range...and 96L is in that area and a floater should be put up by morning
wonderering if 96 L developes would it turn into fish storm or possibly move more west n affect leewards?? any thoughts?
2739. Rick54
I am trying to figure the mechanism for 94L to turn west. Anyone up to explaining?

Depends on the front that is moving down from the North ... If it doesn't move far enough south the storm will turn west.
Karen and Lee tomorrow?
and next year we will have a back up line of floaters if we evere get 4 or more name storms at a time will have a back up line
2742. CJ5
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:52 PM CDT on September 23, 2007.
Here's an updated image from EUMETSAT...Images update every 15 minutes.


That is the best looking storm, this far east, that I have seen in a long while. It is developed into a classic invest. That shot certainly gives it an almost hurricane look already. There is no doubt, by sight, it should be nothing less than a TD. I think it has a chance to be one fo the earliest forming canes.
456 the data is under a special agreement from the European satellite agency (EUMETSAT).
If the North Atlantic Current dies in it's typical cycle every couple of centuries our hurricane season would cease for awhile.
its 23:45
Posted By: stormhank at 7:55 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
wonderering if 96 L developes would it turn into fish storm or possibly move more west n affect leewards?? any thoughts?


all depends on the subtropical ridge and mid-latitude weakness. If there's a weakness in the ridge then it may be a fish..otherwise..its going westward. Another factor is 96L's very low latitude (below 10N) so if there's a nw turn it may occur late (after 50W). Its really too early to say if it will affect us in the leeward islands so the most we can do is monitor. remember 96L is almost 6 days out so alot can change by the weekend.

look at this link
2748. dearmas
Do any of these storms look like they could come to Florida
Tazmanian

The reason 96L is not on a floater is they would have to create the floater from the Full Earth scan, which only occurs every hour. For the normal floater we see, they use the Extended N Hemisphere scan which occurs every 30 minutes but only from 20S-66N/45-120W.

Link
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:59 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
456 the data is under a special agreement from the European satellite agency (EUMETSAT).


ok
h23, where do you find that imagery?
2752. Nanya
Yes, I have troubling refreshing. It takes me back about 6 pages.
Posted By: hurricane667 at 8:02 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

h23, where do you find that imagery?

Which one?456 has been posting links to the public floaters.
Thanks Rick,

It looks like a pipeline north. I was trying to reconcile what I see with the models.
any one on Showing 50 Comments ???? i would do so now if you are not
the eumetsat imagery of 96L
Not labeled yet but, Floater is on 94L
From the looks of things it looks like a good bet we will atleast have 2 TDS to deal with thie week if the current organization trend continues with both.

NHC discussion 805pm

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W OR ABOUT 300
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 7N29W. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND MORE TO THE N OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.
805

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W OR ABOUT 300
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 7N29W. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND MORE TO THE N OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.
LOL 456 sametime.
for 97L

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 56W OR ABOUT 300
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZING AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THOSE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

for 96L

A FAIRLY LARGE ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 550
NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 7N29W. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER AND MORE TO THE N OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR IT TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.
Ok. I just started my second diet martini and I'm feeling thinner already. And, you know, some of these posts are starting to make more sense.
2769. dearmas
House-It's been so wet today in tampa, needs to stop. The Bucs game was a little to wet for me.
LOL
2773. eye
So maybe Karen and Lorenzo in a couple days...


corrected name
HouseofGryff, You may be right
x x
|
____
2777. CJ5
Posted By: eye at 12:10 AM GMT on September 24, 2007.
oh GOD, here we go with that 10 reposts of the same thing!


Bwhahaha....you'll get at least twice more. I think its more of a competition on who can post it first than anything.
Here are the lasest models for 97L....GFDL brings it into the southern bahamas.
2781. CJ5
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 12:13 AM GMT on September 24, 2007.
18Z GFDL for 97L.


That seems sensible to me. I am thinking a little farther south more at DR. They don't have much intensification going on though??
CaneWhisperer -

That GFDL run CERTAINLY is interesting!! I see you live in Jupiter - I live in P.B.G.. If 97 does that we'll be VERY busy!!
New blog
2785. centex
Latest TWD drops 94L from special feature because no change from yesterday. Does still mention bares watching for tropical development. Either timing off or goose chase again in the GOM.
Lets hope the 3 highs don't bridge(Azores, Bermuda and Pacific) as the GFS is calling for at the end of the forecast period. Similar pattern was observed in 2005.
looking at the models does anyone think this could end up in the gulf?
This preaching is really getting tiring. There are 8 trillion blogs on the web. If you don't like this one go to another or make up your own.

Excuse me? So I am not the first? Honestly, I only come here to read the comments by Dr. Masters. Quite frankly, the rest of you should show some compassion at times.
2790. beell
97l
GFDL looks good in my book.
Interaction w/land/shear at 60 hrs as far as intensity goes.
94L is trying to really pop. appears to be traveling nnw 12-14 mph. clear of the coast now and heading into a favorable environment. curious to see what is said at 11pm. any early thoughts?
GFDL is usually good with track but no strength... lets see what 97L has in it.
Dr M has a new blog
SaymoBEEL, can I please have your other olive?
misscajun, you say you have been lurking for several months. Then you must know that not everyone predicts every storm to be a Cat 5 or does all those things you posted. I have found that several bloggers here are extremely polite and helpful, Storm W and MoonlightCowboy to name a few.

Be sure, there have been quite a few trolls to show up here. Just place them on your ignore list and you won't have to worry about them.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 8:04 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

any one on Showing 50 Comments ???? i would do so now if you are not


I switched about 2 hours ago because the page was taking almost 2 minutes to load. Guess we must be over-posting imagery again . . .
and TWO's
Can I make a suggestion about multiple postings of the TWO or storm-specific Discussions etc?

If u post the discussion, then notice that someone else has posted it just ahead of you, could you just delete the discussion using the "modify comment" button? Just put "already posted" or something similar to replace it. I think everybody would appreciate it.
I just finished a plate-ful of Zatarain's dirty rice so good I'm lookin' for a grandma to slap! BTW, did I hear someone mention banana nut bread????