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TD 10 poised to make a comeback

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2005

The remains of TD 10 have survived some pretty significant shearing winds, and the system continues to spin and track west-northwestward at 10 mph towards the northernmost Leeward Islands. Wind shear over the remains of TD 10 has decreased substantially over the past 24 hours--from 15-25 knots yesterday down to 10-20 knots today. The satellite presentation has improved considerably, with frequent bursts of deep convection firing up to the north and east of the center. However, the strong upper-level winds from the west to southwest that are shearing the system are not letting any of the convection that fires up persist. Surface winds measured by theQuikscat satellite show peak velocities below tropical depression strength--20-25 knots north of the center. Global models indicate that the system may enter a region of lower wind shear tonight or Thursday, which will likely allow the convection in the system to persist and the system to re-organize into Tropical Depression 10 again.

If TD 10 does reform, the current thinking of the track models is that the system will continue to the west-northwest under the influence of a strong high pressure ridge over Bermuda. This track would bring the system north of Puerto Rico and near the Bahama Islands by early next week. A strong trough is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. on Monday, which may induce a more northwesterly motion five days from now. However, there may be some hostile winds and dry air for the storm to overcome on its trek towards the U.S.--both the GFDL and GFS models dissipate the system by Saturday. The SHIPS intensity model disagrees, strengthening the system into Tropical Storm Jose with 60 mph winds by Saturday.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Irene has begun its gradual weakening as it encounters cooler waters and high wind shear. It will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm this evening as it races towards Greenland and becomes an extratropical storm tomorrow. The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.