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TD 10 poised to make a comeback

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2005

The remains of TD 10 have survived some pretty significant shearing winds, and the system continues to spin and track west-northwestward at 10 mph towards the northernmost Leeward Islands. Wind shear over the remains of TD 10 has decreased substantially over the past 24 hours--from 15-25 knots yesterday down to 10-20 knots today. The satellite presentation has improved considerably, with frequent bursts of deep convection firing up to the north and east of the center. However, the strong upper-level winds from the west to southwest that are shearing the system are not letting any of the convection that fires up persist. Surface winds measured by theQuikscat satellite show peak velocities below tropical depression strength--20-25 knots north of the center. Global models indicate that the system may enter a region of lower wind shear tonight or Thursday, which will likely allow the convection in the system to persist and the system to re-organize into Tropical Depression 10 again.


If TD 10 does reform, the current thinking of the track models is that the system will continue to the west-northwest under the influence of a strong high pressure ridge over Bermuda. This track would bring the system north of Puerto Rico and near the Bahama Islands by early next week. A strong trough is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. on Monday, which may induce a more northwesterly motion five days from now. However, there may be some hostile winds and dry air for the storm to overcome on its trek towards the U.S.--both the GFDL and GFS models dissipate the system by Saturday. The SHIPS intensity model disagrees, strengthening the system into Tropical Storm Jose with 60 mph winds by Saturday.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Irene has begun its gradual weakening as it encounters cooler waters and high wind shear. It will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm this evening as it races towards Greenland and becomes an extratropical storm tomorrow. The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

If this does develop I think the highest U.S. landfall potential will be florida the high pressure ridge is very strong and wont allow it to move north ad the models are a little too north for the intensity of the bermuda high.
Its been a while but I going to make a bold all out brass balls prediction and say TD10 aka Jose will hit Charleston, SC as a cat3 storm
As i been posting all morning..STRONG TROUGH moving off E U.S...This is going to move this storm NW or N later in the period.
Jedkins, looking at the latest GFS it does look like there will be a trough coming off the East Coast and the high will be located to the east of bermuda. This alone(the high being east of bermuda) will tend to bring the hurricane more to the north toward the NC/SC coast. With the trough coming off the coast this will probably cause recurvature out to sea. This is a pattern that I suspect will continue off and on for the rest of the season.
A hurricane or two could slip in, but most likely most storms that develop out in the open atlantic will stay out to sea(though they might give some good surf to the east coast).
at what intensity will td 10 hit the coast??
YOU GO THERE ORION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The new 12z ECMWF appears to have the TD10 low moving north of the Bahamas thanks to the east coast trough, but then it moves the low toward the GA/SC coast around seven days out as a big, strong ridge moves in behind the trough and sets up shop along the mid-Atlantic coast.
The bermuda high is strong and it looks to me that the best U.S. prabability at this time is florida,many days away but it seems most likely to me at this time.
well for one models are already not doing a very good job for the moment the past few days,the high has been unexpectedly becoming stronger and stronger and may barely miss the virgin Islands and peurto rico it is moving a hair north of due west and the high is already quite a bit stronger than they thought yesterday and is keeping it on a more southern track.
weatherguy03,

Sorry I didn't read any of the prior post, nor did any research other than what is in the good Doc's posting at the begining.
i once agree with you jed ...i think the trough will not be that strong and will not affect the jose...
We're all going to die!!!

erm..

Not from the on comming hurricane, but from sitting in a 50 mile long traffic jam in 95 degree heat; as the east coast of florida evac's in 5-6 days. YAY!
stormtop....jed.....FLORIDA????!!!!
Antiveee....I had the pleasure of heading EAST on I- 10 at 5pm on the floyd evac...I waved and smiled at the westbound parking lot...it's a wonder I didn't get shot at....
aquak i said i agree with him but its to early to tell where the storm may go....
aquak9,

If it would been LA your ride would be swiss cheese within the first 5 miles of I-10 (LOL).
i will never evacuate for any storm..i went through camille and if can get through that i can get through anything...i will stay even though i know new orleans is once again safe from a direct hit this year...
well...im in palm beach.. and evac this area wont happen. if you go north to orlando, the hurricane may turn north and still mess with you. the only people in fl that need to evac are the keys people. they are underwater as it is..hahaha
the one at 20 degrees just coming off the african coast free of dust..now you will see how fast this one develops..this could be the l storm in 24 hours...
stormtop-- where did you ride out Camille///
ooohhhh..i have my fingers crossed for my boy TD10 to come to daddy.....


so stormtop...on the previous blog.. you were saying a cat5 correct? to hit east coast...when do u suppose?
Yeah Hawkeye I saw that high trying to build back in also. This will now get back to timing: How fast will storm move, and how fast will trough lift out. WAY too early for that. But right now my forecast will be for this to miss Florida. Of course my confidence right now is about at 10% this far out in time..lol.
hey stormtop...can you explain why there is a "spin" in the gulf near 90/30 lat. you can see it in WV loop. whats causing that?
Just to clarify Stormtop on something you said in the earlier blog. Trough is not suppose to bring us an increase in rain chances until Sunday/Monday. That is the time frame we are talking about here. Yes your are right it will be very hot from now until the weekend.
Whirlwind: upper level low.
what is causing the spin at 20/65 just to the west of td 10
sorry last entry should have read 65/20
whitewabit: upper level low
man with all these predictions by the one and only... im gonna fuel up my generator, car, and start reinforcing my roof....
LOL >>> Whirlwind
punk--will the upper level low get increased convection, and how will the low affect 10??
EVERYONE in FL..... GRAB THE PLYLOX! 3/4 inch Plywood.....and all the SPAM you can find!

;)
Here is local discussion for Jax, FL. area:....Link...This will give you an idea of the synoptic setup over Florida going into next week, which could influence possible TD 10.
The models are everywhere. Run the loop.Link
No, no increased convection near that upper level low west of TD10. . however, it could influence TD10 in a negative way should TD10 move too quickly. Looks to me like the center has jumped forward quite a distance since earlier this morning.

However, with no new convection in TD10, I wonder if it will be declared a depression at all over the next 24 hours.
i went to that link napleswx...

there must be some stupid people out there..
in the disclaimer it says:

If anything on this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product. ---LOL---
weather channel on trop. update has td10 dissipating soon and the spin in the gulf they say is an upper level low and woun't be over water long enough to develope so it's nothing to worry about. This is what they said not me I'm just sharing thats all.
i agree.....
What StormTop you agree with the weather channel?
The storm looks like it might just dissappear right in front of our eyes. Its so weak now and the shear isnt dying down. Its not looking promising.
Concerning the models Napleswx. We have one group of models(GFS,UKMET) wanting to build a strong ridge back in across the Carolinas quickly lifting trough out. We have the other group (FSU, GFDL, NOGAPS) who keep the trough stronger and dont lift it out as fast. This will be the difference between WNW movement towards Florida or NW to N movement away from Florida.
I hear ya whirlwind, only the obvious. LOL The loop is just interesting to see how forecast tracks can change dramatically throughout the day.
Thanks for the info weatherguy03, I guess we will see what happens.
I wonder if they will upgrade TD 10 at 5 pm to a depression. Its orginization has improved but convection remains sporadic. There might be just enough convection to be classified though.
could someone direct me to a site for water tempertures
yes wildd i agree the shear is just to much to overcome..
im looking at 32 degrees this looks like a tropical depression already...this has no dust to deal with ...this will be td11 as soon as tomorrow morning...its looking awsome..
Finally starting a rebuilding in convection around the center. At least its a start. Have to watch and see if this rebuilding effort results in a large ploom of new convection or fizzles out like the last few attempts.

TD10 is still alive. . but barelly.
Does anyone know where you can find a satellite picture of the west coast of Africa that updates more than just every 6 hours like weather.gov offers?
punk everyone i know about is every 6 hours.......
Crazy that they cant update that more often. If they can update the other satellites every 1 hr, they should be able to update that one every hr as well.
Would someone direct me to a site where I can get water tempertures for the Gulf and Atlantic
The latest bamm takes it towards the west palm fort pierce area in florida,to be spicific just offshore from there.I think this one will be worth watching more than Irene or franklin ever was.
whitewabit:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

Hope that helps
Sorry I have a case to work on. Everyone visit my blog after 6:00 today and I will have an update on TD 10.
Current Sea Surface Temperature Analysis
Courtesy of National Hurricane Center: whitewabit try crownweather.com, go to atlantic basin, keep scrolling down maybe that'll help
punkasshans, yes tks, did the trick!
current models
Link
current sattelite
Link
this storm does not look to be dying, it if it can make to the bahamas then anything can happen. Hurricane andrew was a 60 mph storm a day and a half before lanfall and look how strong it got in that short amount of time.

Jeff just told us that the shear has decreased dramatically in the last day so it has every reason to redevelop right now, and for a system to redevlop after all that this one has gone through, i do not want to imagine how strong it could get.
Miami, I think that model forecast may be from this morning? This one is newer...Link
mh12, thanks for the links...but those models just seem to keep it awfully far south...I get the feeling that that's not really the consensus on this blog, tho.
thx wg03,.. tenacious if nothing else
urs is really old, look where the models originate from, on mine (recent one) it starts from 17 n 57w.

this storm has gone just like models have said for the past few days so....
Stormtop did you go through the eye of cammille?I dought it the way you are talking.I do not think any datta on hurricanes is completely trustworthy before 1975,Camille I believe was obviously a category 5 but I think that the windspeed was just about the same as Andrew prabably just a bit stronger, different as every storm is,just my oppinion.I am not sure about the keys hurricane eather, no - one knows how intense that one was eather or really anything before like 1975.
the great keys hurricane is the storngest ever, and they know by the storm surge. It put US1 under 10 feet of water at the seven mile bridge, they judge it by that
JED ITS TO EARLY TO TELL if its going to florida..if the high builds in fast enough it may go as far s as miami and the keys then into the gulf where temps are in the mid 90s...
Weather guy that is the old model run group...The group is positioned further back and miami hurricane has the most recent version.
I have to agree with miamihurricane12, the models he is showing is the most recent.
I asked the same question about Camille where he rode out the storm. the eye passed over where i was and I can tell you Everyone should evac cat ll and above
Ok ok sorry guys..lol
I know that STORMTOP I have said this so many times I dont need to so that anymore lol,I am sure y'all already know that it is too early to tell yet I will continue to stress that it is too far away but not every darn post stormtop lol.
How about a much better link of the most current models just out:

Models
Man you guys are on top of me today..lol..thank you..Sorry I am at work so sometimes I try and juggle a hundred things plus look at the blog.
jed im agreeing with you im just not ready to call what part of florida yet...
That must have been one heck of a storm like Andrew but maybe a bit stronger,the exact strength can only be a estimation and that is it but I am certain It was a category 5 and a 5 is like no storm you will ever expeirience.
Nah Jed, Storm has a CAT 5 forming soon off of Africa thats gonna hit the US...What a stretch in late August..lol..Ok I will behave now.
mommy always told me it is better to be safe than sorry....lol....in all seriousness i think that it will either hit south florida or head north to the carolinas, and my odds are 70:30 (miami:carolinas)
That low in the central atlantic, how soon could it become TD 11?
Hey Punkass can you give me the main site to were you get that model picture. I like looking at that one as well, plus the ones in motion.
miami, what about central florida say Daytona Beach Area? What are the odds for that area?
This storm for one has continued to progress farther and farther west than anticipated and the high is also stronger than anticipated and is currently moving more west than the whole model group,that is the reson why I am taking about florida but is still to early right now.
Yeah right now I will go with 20 Florida, 40 NC/SC, 30 Out to sea, 10 never develops. Anyone else?
weatherguy:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/#Atlantic%20Guidance
Thank you Punk..:)
i say by tomorrow evan thats the one we are going to really have to watch...
See the model group is already a bit ominous for florida but it is moving more west than anticipated with a very strong bermuda high which like I have said the model group I think takes it to far northwestward for the strength of this high.
weatherguy03, here it is Link
and another good should it make depression status again
Link
30% chance does not develop, 70% does

IF it does develop, a definate threat to the south east coast. However, it is WAY too early to predict where exactly it will go. I wouldnt doubt it stays south and goes towards florida, however if that front drops a little further south than predicted we could see a storm that never gets even close to the US. Either way, the Bahamas need to keep a close eye on this, its going to either go right over them or just to their north. (IF IT DEVELOPS)
evan i know that u live in datona and want a storm historically the storms go north or west, last year when ft. pierce got hit that is not a common thing but i would give my oddsfor daytona probably 20 to 25 percent if it hits florida but in the overall probably 10 percent....but i am always wrong bout these things so..
Florida:30 uncertain:60 rest of southeast coast:10, that is my thinking and I will continue to narrow it down as the days go as long as it develops into something which it will likely do.
What up guys......My top 3 Hurricanes.....Gilbert-1988, Camillee-1969, and the 1935 storm that hit the keys...those also had the 3 lowest pressures ever recorded in the western hemisphere....i believe gilbert got down to 888 milibars if im not mistaken...
Everyone has a different oppinion and if I think if this does develop the highest U.S. landfall probability will be florida but it is too early to tell and even when it starts to narrow down these things are hard to predict and my oppion is not anymore worthy than anyone else prediction unless they are just plain out guessing and being silly...
90 percent that it develops into a tropical storm and goes out to sea.....the other 10 you can divide up anyway you want......lol
Hey Jed, I am alittle uncertain right now about the bermuda high. I am always alittle skeptical when the models try and bring a trough into the SE US this time of year. Even the latest discussion here in Jax started hesitating about bringing the trough through Florida. So we will see what kind of fine tuning will be made to the forecast in the coming days.
Glad your looking out for us here in the lowcountry Orion! LOL.

I'll ride anything out as long as I am in a brick home with minimal surronding trees!
The models are putting this much further south and west than Irene, so it is something we should be paying very close attention to (Florida looks to be in the crosshairs as of now, if anything comes of the remenants of TD10). I really have a feeling that the intensity models (like SHIPS) are a little on the conservative side.

The thunderstorm complex that is left over from TD10 is continuing to show signs that it is slowly organizing, even though it is still dealing with shear coming from the west. The shear looks like it will calm down quite a bit in the northeast Caribbean in the coming days, allowing remenants of TD10 to continue to organize.

UKM, NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC runs from today are all showing a high pressure ridge dip all the way from Bermuda towards the southeast coastline (Florida, Georgia, Carolina's), lending credence to the guidance track models that are mostly pushing the remenants of TD10 to the Bahamas. After the Bahamas, its a coin toss where this potential storm could go. Convential wisdom leads me to believe if this storm can make it far enough west to the Bahamas at all, then the southeast US coastline is looking at a possible landfall sometime early next week if everything plays out in the storms favor.

This is just speculation at this point, but as days go by we do get a better idea of where it may be going.
You don't even know for sure if those other storms are strong as they are estimated to be and we know that most destructive hurrican on record is Andrew so I will say Andrew Camille and then Gilbert.Even Cammile is uncertain but I cant leave that one out lol.
Yes that is what I am saying I think Florida but way too far out still and we don't know yet.
So when should we start getting food and water in Miami?
Well the funny thing about all of this discussion is, is that we dont even have a depression yet..lol..You never know TD 10 may have the last laugh.
I would wait at least until Friday, the earlier the better, to beat the lines you know.

Thats if it stays on track until then, then hopefully the models might be more trustworthy with this storm.
Listen, nobody knows how strong andrew was at landfall. It blew off all of the hurricane proof radar equipment and wind gauges but the last recorded wind gust at the nhc was 164 mph and they are 25 miles north of where the eye wall hit florida city. The air force base go completely destroyed and there wind gauge blew off at 203 but that could have been a tornado, but i say that andrew was worse than camille and gilbert
Well southbeach its almost dinnertime so I would say soon if you are hungry..lol..But no kidding, its way too early for that. Just monitor the situation for the rest of the week. By the weekend we will have a better idea.
Weatherguy03-I don't think anyone is really jumping the gun on this one, can you think of any impressive waves this year that have not become a named storm?
But actually if you live on the coast here in Florida like I do, you should have a hurricane prepardness kit all ready to go by now. It's best to do this beforehand. I usually get mine ready in June.
There is some banding on the northern part of the system. It does look to be getting organized, but you can't pick out the circulation like you could the day it was classified as a depression. Anyone have a close up link? For "TD 10"?
106. MIAWX
Hi everyone, new to this blog, my first post. I strongly believe this will re-develop into TD10 by tomorrow. This system actually stayed in tact through some pretty harsh conditions, and they are becoming less and less harsh. The entire SE U.S. coast would be vulnerable should this develop. Right now the way I see it, particularly North Carolina would be at greatest risk. May approach FL, but think trough will recurve it. I will say models have been taking it more poleward than has been the case.
Oh i know CFL. Every wave that has had just a small chance has made it. It was just my attempt at alittle humor.
No rudeness was intended, sorry if it seemed that way. I'm just saying that this year has been very impressive thus far, and the late August/early September peak looks to be busy.

No prob, your a Florida guy, so your cool with me..lol..Oh definately I agree CFL.
waetherboyfsu, what do you think about global warming and seat temperature rises? Do you think over the next 20-30 years we will see a hurricane (or hurricanes) stronger than Gilbert?
111. MIAWX
I agree CFLweather, should be busy. We better hope shear remains above average, given the hot water temps out there (90 off miami beach!). There is so much heat energy surrounding FL that it's giving me the jitters.
MIAWX....that is what scares me being down here in southeast FL. The local weather is not talking about the storm much but they are talking about the 90 degree ocean. I do not think that will be good if this storm gets close. I am amazed how many of the early model run are aiming at southeast FL. We are definitely watching this one closely.

113. MIAWX
southbeachdude, yey, any storm to approach our area I think would rapidly intensify over the local warm atlantic waters, of course dependent on shear. I have the jitters because of the HOT waters and the fact that MIA-FLL escaped last years wrath. '05 might be payback time.
The upper level low that is causing the shear is moving westward, and in turn lessening the shear on remenants of TD10, only adding fuel to the potential fire that will be Jose in the coming days. Your definately right MIAWX, the water is way too warm for comfort, I don't really like to fathom the possiblities of what it may lead to.
stsimonsislandgaguy
if air temps increase 5 to 10 deg,this would increase season length buy a month or more, and with the higher water temps you could see a few mega storms that would cause distruction well inland. cound see 25 or more storms with half being mager hurricanes. just my thoughts
yes water temp is getting too uncomfortable even at the beach, it is like a warm bathtub. The st john's river up here is full of algae ( I don't ever remember it being this bad) and they have put up warnings to stay out of the river, and not eat the fish.
The heat has been oppressive what with 97 plus temps everyday, a fresh breeze would be greatly appreciated, but the heat just builds up the energy till you feel like the air is almost buzzing.
Too much energy. It's gotta go somewhere....
i have updated my blog on TD 10 and its concern for South Florida.
The weather in Miami said there was a good chance the storm was going to the east of us down here. I guess that is good for us and bad for someone else.

Does anyone have any updated models on the next news maker...the big wave already a good distance from Africa?
turtle i semi kind of agree with you about south florida but what i dont agree you saying it will be there in 6-9 days..are you expecting a slow down and if so what are you expecting to slow down for? just curious about whats going through your brain about the system..
aquak9, the algae is also worse this year because of the saharan dust. dust collects in waterways, epecially along low-flow areas. dust can raise water temp near surface, increasing heat content & lowering oxygen exchange. prefect conditions for algae growth. too much algae and there could be big red tide blooms or fish kills. enough on the biology lessen. i'm grateful for the suppressed storm activity (even if it's for a little while.)
what is your reason for that thinking miawx...a trough will be coming down but what if the high build in a 650mb high and the trough is a weak one..what happens to the storm then..who do you think is in danger more? just curious about your thinking..
The infrared loop from the past 24 hours of the big wave off of Africa appears to show some circulation, whether this is a low level circulation is yet to be seen. Thunderstorm activity for this big wave is looking more symmetrical as time goes by, something else we will have to watch.



cracker girl the tropics are just about ready to crack ..the dust is leaving and the waves are linning up it looks like a parade by next week...
STORMTOP, what is your analysis of remenants of TD10. Possibly your thoughts on the high pressure ridge, intensity if landfalling, possible direction of movement of remenants of TD10, shear values, ect.
stormtop

do you really thank you will get a reply fron a women??
okcfl as for as the system being called a tropical depression again i say yes...ok you have 2 scenarios that could happen if the depression gets by the shear thats ahead of it...

1 the storm would continue on a wnw course with the 650mb high building towards the west kicking the weak trough out and putting south florida under the gun then the gulf of mexico would have to be concerned about it..

2 the troughthat is coming down from the north is here sooner and quite a bit stronger keeping the high at bay and forcing the storm to move more towards the north affecting the fish only but may brush bermuda...

3 the other scenario it could just die the shear may be to much for it.....this is the way it looks right now things can change cfl keep up on the weather atmospheric charts the vapor tells you everything...now lets here your opinion...
whitewabit now i know why you spell your name lol...you need to see alec our spell checker..
does anyone else want to give and analysis...come on guys speak up...i gave mind i know you dont agree lets hear it..
storm top--

wabvit being my nickname white for being up in the snow where were you when Camille hit??
Dr. Lyons says "Nothing to worry about" off the Africa coast.

I'm not too smart, but it looks like a spin to me.
stormtop

opps that should be WABIT.....lol
wabit wabvit i was in pass christian i was 12 years old..where were you?
Great, flash flooding in downtown Charleston.

Does everyone agree that, due to all of the rain this year, if we do get a Cat 2 or higher the tree damage due to uprooting could be real real bad?
storm yop stop hitting on the women in these blog its getting annyoying
I was on the base--triangle area. wasn't fun..eye passing over30 minslasted over
if dr lyons said that he sure isnt playing with a full deck...we have all of august and september to go yet..
did i miiss something here jeff...did you leave something out..you wanted to say............................
yes storm junkie it could be real bad if a strong tropical storm hits there for the tree damage....
Water temp 89.2 today, the highest I have seen in many years since I first started tracking buoy 41008.
1800 UTC SHIPS has remenants of TD10 as 74 mph hurricane in about 96 hours. Does anyone else see this as being waaaay too conservative?
I think it will take a week, storm top--none of the models bring 'TD 10' to FL in 5 days, or even the nearer Bahamas. If anything develops from it, it looks like it will be a crawler.
the gulf temps are running off the la coast and miss coast 94 degrees...thats hot we dont need anything coming into the gulf this year..
TD 10 looks rough right now. Might not make it after all. I give it a 50/50 shot.

I think Dr. Lyons was only talking about the wave that is currently off the coast.
lol i sure hope so are he will be out of a job quick...
146. rick1
does anyone think that td 10 will be any threat to north central florida
thats not good but what are they saying that will slow it down..
I wont guess where it would land at this point, (or even if it will become anything, I have serious doubts) but I dont believe it will be a cat 3 when it does. Either shearing will keep it weak, or if upper level winds become favorable--it will bomb out over 90+ water to become a 4 with a slight chance at 5 depending on eyewall replacements. Storms like Anita in 1977 and Andrew show that if a hurricane decides to get its act together over hot water, it doesn't take long for it to blast through cats 1, 2 and 3.

Random question, what were the water temps in the Gulf of Mexico in the week before Camille? I know on the GA coast we had a lot of record high mins the week of Camille so the water was probably very warm here as well.
It looks rough? Are you kidding? Considering the enviornment it has been in for days, and the enviornment it is in now, it is still impressive and shows no signs of going away anytime soon. I'd say more like 90/10 chances of surviving, 90 being the surviving chances. Remember all those other storms this year that went from nothing to a named storm? This one is no different, it is in a bad enviornment for the time being, but in a few days, the shear will subside to almost nothing, and the water temps go way up.
scroll up and read my post
I know what it has bee through and I know what the other storms have done, but there is some dry air around it and the shear just seems to be coming from a different direction now albeit it is not as bad as it has been. If it make 18-32 hrs I agree with the 90/10 odds.
does anyone see the wave off the african coast continuing southeast as its done today and hiting the south american coast
yes wabit its possible that could happen..it really flared up earlier..
Where is the center of TD 10? Is it around 19.5? I thought it was further south.
stsimonislandgaguy

don't know the actual temp, but had been to the beach the weekend before and the water was very warm.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Latest Projections from Colostate
stormtop

what is causing the seast movement of the wave
What is that spin ENE of TD10 and how will it affect TD 10 if it makes it that far. Will it stay to the W of it?
it looks to me its at 19.3n and 57.5w and estimated position....
thats a good question its and upper level low thats moving slowly wnw now...
right now wabit its the steering currents down there plus the low off the s american coast...
I know not knowing what the High wil do yet, what r the chances this storm (if it makes it) coming into the Gulf and doing something Charley did last year?
Any chance for delopment there or that it absorbs TD 10?
hummmmmmmm to early to say ray..they are predicting a slow down and i would like to know what will slow it down..
i know this if it gets to south fla the high building west will push it into the gulf...we dont need that with 94 degree water temps..
no we don't need anything like this to come into the Gulf, water is way way to HOT. I just don't want anything to get into this area at all.
well ray i have and old saying you should not worry because you cnat change whats going to happen..why worry and get your pressure up...thats not smart...
Well all I can say is before I get to worried about this possibility I am going to wait till the weekend,there should be a better handle on it.
tis is the 05 season and anything can happen.
yes there should be a better idea by saturday what the high will do how strong it will be ..will the trough be strong enough and dig that far south to pick up the storm...lots of possibilities...
What is the best way to tell where the highs are and where the troughs are? Anyone have any animated links tohelp with this. What exactly is a trough? Is it a low pressure frontal system?
a trough is a weakness in the atmosphere caused by a front..it depends on how strong the trough is and how strong the high is behind it...we wont know that until saturday...but i was looking at the atmospheric charts today and it looks to be a 500mb high behind this cold front...
So 500mb trough is stronger or weaker than the 650mb high? And what does this mean for TD10
i'm new to this weather stuff. is 500 mb enough to push this possible storm out to keep it off fl? thanks
i dont know new it depends on what kind of steering currents develop ahead of the storm....
stormtop

you are talking about a high that will build over tx??
Hey guys and girls I'm back

I think the odds of TD 10 developing tonight are slim considering that It still has shear over it. The shear is weakening, however and it will be a TD once again tomorrow by 11:00am. I think that the Bermuda high will be only moderately stronger than it was a week ago. TD 10 will become Jose in about 36 hours if the shear and dust remain away from the system. The waters are warm but the depth of this warmth still is not enough to cause this storm to become another Andrew. I think it will continue wnw towards the central bahama islands and then will be effected by the trof that is supposed to come off the East coast later on in the forecasting period. Then strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane Jose will react by moving nw then nnw skimming the eastern coastlines of the bahama islands. From there it will continue nw/nnw into the area between Beaufort, SC and Savannah, GA stregnthing into a strong cat 2 storm.

This is my best guess at this point. . .

Survival vs death 90/10

Impact probs

1) FL then gulf 15%
2) Out to sea 30 % ( considering that every storm this year that has threatened the Southeast coast has gone this way.)
3) SC/GA landfall 55% ( The high and trof will cause the storm to miss florida like Floyd did years ago, only this time, Jose will run out of ocean and hit the South Carolina/Georgia border area.


in some cases it might be storm i just dont know what kind of steering will be guiding the storm...something unexpected might showup..its to early to tell...
Wow watcher-7 you got me smack dab in the NE quadrant of a strong two in about what 8 days?
From the latest imagery everyone still thinks TD 10 will make it through the next 12-18?
weatherwatcher you left one thing out the most important as for as im concerned..why are they saying it will take 9 days to hit land what at this point will slow this thing down to almost a crawl...you never mentioned that i just want to know what your thinking is about it slowing down..you have it on shore it sounds like to me in 4 or 5 days...im interested why?
Lets do a poll, choose one.. results for TD10..just for fun
1) Dissipation
2) TD through Florida (could be into Gulf)
3) TStorm through Fl
4) Hurricane through FL
5) TD to GA or SC
6) Tstorm to GA or SC
7) Hurricane to GA or SC
8) TD to NC or Midatlantic
9) Tstorm to NC or midatlantic
10) Hurricane to NC or midatlantic
11) Out to sea
one more thing weather watcher what about the high to the nw of the bermuda high from the azores..how does that figure into your forecast...im just trying to figure where you are coming from...you think there is no chance of the bridging of the 2 highs and becoming one very strong high i assume you did not say anything about the other high...
Thats a lot of choices 79. I have already said that N Florida to S. South Carolina is overdue. Cat 1 Jacksonville for the matter of this study call it a GA-SC CAT 1
oh well weather watcher i guess you dont have and answer for me so im out of here guys and gals ...its been fun...
I think FL as a hurricane......Right now the water is too hot for it not to be a hurricane as it comes inland. I think it will make landfall in 5 days or on Monday night. I really do not have any thoughts on where in FL....could be Jacksonville to Key West. That will be determined in the next 48 to 72 hours. I am going out tomorrow to purchase additional water and canned food.
If it come ins at Jacksonville moving N or a little N of NNW would it take it longer to weaken due to the NE quadrant being over the warm atlantic?
hurricane79, my guess is Hurricane through FL
I guess another question for the panel of experts tonight is when will it be a TD, Jose (Tropical Storm), and Jose the Hurricane?

I think TD tomorrow mid day...TS Jose by evening Fri/ early morning Sat......Hurricane early evening on Sunday....
SBeachDude, I am not sure that it is going to make it through the night, but I am no expert only a local to the tropical region.
Sorry stormtop, I was talking about the bermuda high not the one near the azores! As for the speed of the storm, I don't think that it will go to a crawl. It just does not make sense. If anything If it does slow to a crawl it would have a better chance of being turned out to sea. the key is the high pressure in the gulf of mexico. If that high stays strong and the bermuda high builds farther west then the storm would take the path of least resistance into SC/GA. I think if the high in the guls becomes weak then, The storm would move over florida ( Jacksonville to Miami) and then the gulf.

Hopefully tomorrow I will begin updates on TD 10 I don't expect to have as much work tomorrow.
What's up everyone? Long time no speak... For all of my Texas people here, I thought portion of this Austin forecast discussion from earlier this afternoon may interest you all...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2005



BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG (IN THE 550S DM) UPPER LOW TRACKS ALONG THE BORDER WITH CANADA. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. THIS RESULTS IN A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH. NOGAPS AND ECMWF TAKE THE FRONT INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE DGEX, GFS, AND CANADIAN ONLY SHOW A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. BOTH
SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE. IN ADDITION, CANADIAN, NOGAPS, AND ECMWF SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL FURTHER COMPLICATING FORECAST SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW, CAN NOT SEE FEATURE WHICH THESE MODELS INDICATE TO SPIN UP. AS A RESULT, WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECASTS FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO AWAIT MORE CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY.

I don't see such feature developing in the Gulf of Mexico by next week either but this is the 2005 season so anything is possible. Stay tuned Texas folks, just in case.
Watcher007 I hope you don't get offended like stormtop did, but what are your credintials? How long have you been studying tropical cyclones?
latest GSF & GSDL models both show a gradual turn to the north well before FL......BAM still shows it lurking closer to South FL......As many before me have said.....if it survives tonight anywhere from SC to Key West will have a strong storm to deal with.
Watcher007 what is your take on TD 10 making it through the night?
Hurricane79, I pick option #1 first, my second choice is #7
And for the record--I have no credentioals whatsoever :)
The latest imagery on TD 10 looks terrible. Is there evan a circulation there at all?
the bamm and bamd models have been the most accurate the last couple of days they show 10 following a a route that would take it to s fl
Me either StSimmons! I am not too far away from you though. Great Grandma used to live down there.

what about the fsu one?
Somehow, I have the feeling that the shear is eventually going to kill 'TD 10'
Stormjunkie, thats cool :) Where yat?
a newbe too
One of the BAMs has the thing turning south towards Cuba? Could it even do that with that upper level low there?
Charleston
me either stsimons.....I am just a lay person at this weather stuff
Either way, you know the media's gonna go into a frenzy here in jax...I'm not gonna buy water or do anything till stormptop, jed, ww07, evan, and wg03 agree on something. This blog makes more sense than the media any day of the week.
And Stormjunkie, thank you for asking questions that I'm afraid to ask.
If only there was the possibility of a hurricane hitting Northeast Central Florida (Cape Canaveral-Marineland, FL). I would be waiting for it.
didn't say i agreed with the bam's was trying to get some info as to why not

i don't see 10 being anything more then a weak tropical wavein a day or 2
Who here has been through a CAT 2 or higher?

Why would you be afraid to ask? It's the internet!
I sat through the eye of Camille which hit today in 1969
First of all I hope I didn't offend stormtop. Second, I don't have a degree in this but I have been following tropical systems for a long time (my brother hates it). Third, It's too early to trust the models considering that this storm has not even developed yet. We have to look at the atmospheric conditions (upper level winds, High pressure ridges) they are the key to whether or not it does what I think it will do. GA guy(sorry I cant spell out your whole name)Don't believe that it will die. the shear is a killer I know but it would be dead by now if it weren't a survivor. Around a week ago we all saw Irene on it's death bed but it, like this storm was a survivor and at it's peak became a cat two storm. I still say anywhere between Miami,FL and Myrtle Beach, SC should stay tuned.

I will be posting on my blog tomorrow.
Keep an eye on the tropics for me until then.
I have....Andrew in 1992 on the west coast of Florida though..
Went through Hugo on Sept 22. Camille on Aug 17. Andrew Aug 16. And here we are waiting on Jose!
Correction to previous-I did not go through Camille or Andrew-Only Hugo. was just noting the dates that we got to those letters in past years.
I lived in Mobile and went through several hurricanes there. Cat 1 and 2 aren't too bad. Cat 3 you hate the power outages. Cat 4, I wouldn't know because I am smart enough to leave town.
Results for TD10 poll:

Dissipation: 1
Fl Hurricane: 3
GA/SC Hurricane: 2

It appears that most believe if TD 10 survives, then it will intensify under lower shear and higher SST's.
that is why i take this serious....i do not wish this to hit anyone. The old TD 10 looks terrible on radar tonight. I have a new question....why do storms gain strength early in the morning? it seems like they get stronger from 2am to 6am
79 - count me as a Florida Hurricane for TD10
At night, air temperatures cool, which allow air below to rise easier, especially when the water temperature is very close to the air temperature
I may butcher the spelling, but I think it has something to do with something called a diernal period.
hurricane79

you have me down at #1
h79, you have me down for FL hurricane. Don't know where, but most likely FL
I can not find any circulation in TD 10 on the radars. Is it on its last leg?
Just stumbled on this.......sea surface temps... pretty interesting

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~mm5/web/MM5_NOGAPS/sst.gif
ooooh, maybe!
What is this I hear about something off of S America?
southbeachdude

try this link for temps
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg
The water off of GA/SC is pretty warm, but good god, I think you can catch pre cooked fish in the gulf.
southbeachdude pretty hot happily TD 10 is on the westside and not on the easside

what are you guys thinking about the big wave in the carribean 500 miles north of columbia
Here is a crazy question....where is the remain of TD 10 currently? The local news in miami just said it is near Puerto Rico. I thought it was further east than that...
The miami news is mistaken. What is left of TD10 is around 20N 58W Well east of Puerto Rico. It looks real bad right now.
storm junkie
i've been thru cat 2/frances & cat3 jeanne.
almost looks like it will be gone by morning......do the models take into consideration wind shear and how it could destroy this system? Seems like most models say it will survive.
Link This should show you where TD 10 is. Floater 1.
To all of those who have sat through a CAT 2+, who would do it again?

You would have to pry me away as long as I was in a brick building on high ground with few trees.
Just took a look at a satellite, TD 10 has taken its last bow. Whens the funeral?
Although, Irene looked like that and then came back with convection.
miami news was referring to another wave which will afeect our weather this weekend
But, not every storm is like irene, right?
The circulation associated with the former TD10 is actually centered about 17.5N 58W according to the latest satellite loop. It appears to be moving just a tad north of due west right now, possibly getting a westward shove by the big surge of dry, dusty air seen on the right half of the floater satellite image. If this current motion keeps up through the night the circulation center will come quite close to the northernmost Leeward Islands. The conditions surrounding the system are still terrible and it looks less organized than 24 hours ago.
storm junkie

would i sit through a high level cat 5 storm with a pressure of 909mb a high tide over 20ft above normal with a 15 to 25 ft storm surge on top of the tide. would you

wouldn't even thank about doing that
PPL this storm has been like this since it died. It has gotten convection then it died. This last burst was the best looking yet so i am expecting in the morning to wake up and see it looking well again. The low level center is there and is doing fine there is just no strong tthunderstorms around it right now. There is a new small batch on the north side tho...It is fighting strong shear right now that is why it is developing and then dying because it is being sheared off but when that relaxes tomorrow we will have a tropical depression maybe even a storm and if it makes landfall in florida then it will be south florida, historically speaking.
stormjunkie

i forgot the 200 mph winds with gust above that
Hawkeye-If that is the center of TD 10 then it has reformed since earlier today.
The TD10 circulation has been moving along roughly the same track all day. Any reorganizing of the center has been insignificant.
hawkeye

your co-ordinates are about 400 miles south of its location
10 that is
XTD10 looked quite a bit healthier to me two times in the past 3 days, but not so tonight.. really appears more like an open wave at this moment

when dvorak 1.5 was indicated (these two other times) i really thought it had a chance to become jose, now i'm wondering if '10' doesn't just get snuffed out once and for all tonight...

pesronally, at this time I am much more curious about the couple of models expecting tc development in the gulf this week
whitewabit, watch the IR loop again. Throughout the day there have been off and on attempts to fire convection on the north side of the center. You can clearly see a few puffs of convection following a line roughly along and just north of 17.5 degrees. If you look closely you can also see the milky dark gray low level clouds broadly rotating around a center near 17.5N.
i wouldn't stay for cat 2+.
frances was cat2 approaching 3...eyewal cycle wasn't finished before landfall so it was on the high end of 2. we were on north side (most wet & windy side) about 30 miles from stuart,fl. worst thing about frances was the length of time it took storm to pass.. 28 hours!! it stalled on the coast at landfall. we did see the eye at about 16 hour mark. the (physical) pressure was hideous: ears continuously popped & bad headaches. anxiety didn't help... usually storms pass in 6-8 hours.
then jeanne three weeks later...she was a cat3 approaching 4. everybody know same place all over again. the winds seemed definetly worse. loose debris still hadn't been picked up after frances, so there was a lot of stuff flying. wind & pressure of a strong 3 really shook even a well-built concrete block house. the metal roof held up very well.
if you decide to ever evacuate, leave early & go as far as possible in the shortest amount of time. i'm on the east coast opposite tampa/st pete/clearwater on the west coast. friends there only had to deal with trop storm & low cat1. for every mile inland or opposite direction of storm path, it's just that much less storm to have to deal.
hawkeyewx

do you mean at 16n/57w as of 805pm edt that was the center of 10
I felt for those of you who sat through Francis. I remember I could not belive how long it sat around. That is still a risk I would take to experience a storm again. AS said before I mean no ill harm to anyone, but if it happens I feel a need to see it.
The center was never quite that far south... it may have come close to 17N 56W earlier.
stormjunkie

you should change you name to stormchaser and come up here in the plains states for tonado hunting now thats a thrill
stormjunkie

check it out http://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1124338137-HATT20US.TXT.html.en
sorry my last post should be for hawkeyewx not you stormjunkie-was still wondering aboutyour desire to sit through a major cane
sorry
I still don't think it could have been as far south as 16N 57W. It was near 17N 57W, so maybe they just made a bad keystroke while typing the discussion. Anyway, that discussion and the 10:30pm outlook both confirm the center is now near 17.5N 58W on the way to skirting the northern islands.
No thanks wabit, I like to have the few days to prepare. And I am not exactly a chaser, I just watch the weather very closely as a hobbie.
I have sat through a major. It is not a desire, it is more like an addiction that woul prevent me from leaving any area if I knew that I was in a good location to ride out a storm.
I still say that TD10 is closer to 19.5N. It looks like a little convection is trying to start up on the south side of the eye.
I have sat through a cat 2. I'm in NC and when Fran made landfall the eye went completely over the spot (in my city) where I was (still am today). I think former TD 10 will live through the night to make it to the area thats more favorable for it to strengthen.
And Storm Junkie is right it is an addiction. Even with it being a cat 2 when it got to me I was still trying to go outside and look out the window cuz I called myself studying the storm and I was a teen at this time.
I wake up from my sleep for this! What is going on? I look at the satelite loop and I see that TD 10 is in the same position that Irene was a while ago: on life support. I think that tonight is critical. If TD 10 makes it through the night, then it will develop. If it dosen't then so be it. I just believe that like irene, TD 10 is a fighter and I just know this is not it's last stand. Hugo was a beast. It was the worst storm in this state's history. I've also been through Bob but thats another story for another time.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN is CENTERED I say just about 225 Mi.
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. Even though it HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND ITS CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS are unfavorable right now FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS will GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
SHOULD PASS anywhere from NEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
All AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.
Where were you in Hugo 007
Let me say that the post I just made is my own thought and my own predictionthats not set in stone and if it falls through then oh well it just falls through I'm still learning and for anybody who wants to know what my "credentials" are I'm just a student (it's my sophmore year) in the Broadcast meteorology Program at Miss. State university.
Well TD#10 looks poor again tonight and we are nearing the convective maximum. Also even though the models show a reduction in shear be aware that normally shear is underforecasted and forecasted to diminish too quick.

As far as potential path well that is a concern that is very dependent on strength. If the system stays weak there is actually a chance of a much more westerly course otherwise my gut instinct is that it would either threaten NC/SC or go out to sea.

Also earlier I read somebody mention and another critize Dr. Lyons on the Weather Channel for discounting the tropical wave off Africa. First off Dr. Lyons is very intelligent and knowledgeable about tropical weather. He makes mistakes and has biases like we all do, but knows his stuff. Once I saw him and another professor discussing a hurricane's potential path and I learned more from that and similiar discussions than I learned in many classes. I admit he's not a good as John Hope, but give him time. Second he probably was refering to the fact that often waves look real good when they come off Africa and have a nice mid level rotation, but never develop. He could also have been refering to the fact that a system that starts out there has virtually no chance of making it this far west
i'm a newbe but thought storms coming off the afican coast is where we get hurricanes from? i'm i wrong?
does anyone see the disturbence at 15n/72w is this something we should watch
wabbit - later on in the year it is not uncommon for storms that threaten us and the U.S. to form in the lower Caribbean, such as Mitch...... but for the most part, you're right.... most come as a result of systems moving off Africa
wabit - good call on the 15/72...... lots of things look impressive initially..... but, being a weather junkie, I, for one, will be watching this blob
I have heard Dr. Lyons mention keeping an eye on that blob at 15n72w. It looks pretty impresive tonight.
Junkie! you're still awake! I was looking at independentwx.com...... some shear associated with 15/72 and other stuff which I am not qualified to talk about, but it looks like something to watch
hurricanecrab

but didn't most of the storms developing in the caribbean start from waves coming from african coast and less then a third come out of the caribbean in a normal year?
I personally have much respect for Dr. Lyons. He seems to have always given lots of variables and data. I've learned a lot from watching him.
wabit - you're absolutely right. I think "less than a third" is a good figure. Probably less than that. We live in the Caymans...... October has been our month (until last year with IVAN in Sept.) to watch for stuff forming either under us or on top of us.
hurricanecrab

how long in the caman's you have surely see your share of bad weather
Are there any models on this new blog at 15 72 like there are for former TD 10? If not, why? The new blob is a lot closer to the US than former TD 10.. thanks....
hey all you night owls
southbeachdude

i don't thank any models will be done until its a td
is that right??other blogers?
At this point the activity at 15N 72W is nothing. It is just a disorganized blob of convection flaring up on the east side of an upper trough. If there is some more organized convection in that area in a couple days then we can worry about it.
hawkeyewx

when would there be a model don on this blob
white, there won't be any models on it unless it gains some clear organization and becomes worthy of investigation by the NHC
hawkeyewx

what is your veiw on what will happen to 10
The NHC likes for an area of covection to hold together for 12 hrs. before they start to worry about it becoming a tropical Cyclone so unless that blob can hold it together for that amount of time they will or won't investigate it.
wabit - sorry was looking at independentwx.com...... we've been in the Caymans for 11 years
hurricanecrab

how many storms??
We've been throught a Cat 2..... but have been VERY lucky..... Cayman Islands are three islands -- Cayman Brac, Little Cayman and Grand Cayman. Grand Cayman took a big whompin' from Ivan last year. We (on Cayman Brac) only got a max of 110 mph.
Many Many have threatened us in the last 11 years, but only three have had any impact here during that time. Out here, we compare everything to the "great STORM of '32", which killed 108+ people on Cayman Brac and more than 2500 on Cuba. We've been through Lily, Isadore, Michelle, Ivan etc.
man must be tough have you ever thought about moving
No Way! We live in an area where natural disasters are KNOWN IN ADVANCE! What could be better?
oh ok

I just read this from the independentwx.com website what do you guys think of this? think there's any truth to it?

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, the potential for tropical development in the Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico by Days 4-7 is increasing. The global models, especially NOGAPS, have been consistently indicating some sort of development in the Bay of Campeche for the last several days. The disturbance under investigation will originate from Central America and the extreme southwest Caribbean Sea. The convection currently over the Yucatan Peninsula is associated with a tropical wave near 85W, but this wave is only partly responsible for the possibility of TC formation in the medium range. A second wave of low level energy near Panama and Costa Rica will slowly move northwest and reach the Bay of Campeche by Day 4. Upper level winds are forecast to be favorable for tropical cyclogenesis during that period. Steering Layer Analysis and initial model guidance suggests that if a tropical cyclone were to form, it would likely threaten the Mexican coast near Tampico. Interests in Texas and Louisiana should still keep an eye on the Gulf as this TC is not expected to form until another 96 hours at least.
We moved from Earthquake country to come here!! ha ha
any coments on 10??

looks like rotation has stoped or very close to it the dry air slot that has been following it seems to have undercut it to the south cutting of what mosture it was getting is it dead
wildd - we've had little 'pockets of convection' (for lack of a more precise term) ALL around us for days. What you posted doesn't surprise me, however I've come to associate such developments with later in the year -- like October.
hurricanecrab

alaska?
wabit - I LOVE Alaska...... been there several times... we live in the Cayman Islands
who thinks TD 10 will stay alive until the 11am advisories? (besides me)
wabit - finally it dawns on me what you were asking......no, we came here from S.F. California area
hurricanecrab

then where did you experience earthquakes??
Wildd..... I think TD10 will reform and survive.... but I hasten to add that I am no meteorologist
Wow H. Crab I'm going on a cruise in Dec. and we are going to the Caymans to the Virgin Is. to Puerto Rico. So how are the Caymans? Is it hot but pretty there?
Well H. Crab I'm half a meteorologist so I know what I'm talking about mostly. If you're wondering how I'm half a meteorologist I say that because I'm a Sophmore in the Broadcast Meteorology program at MSU.
Wildd - December is PERFECT for the Caymans...... no tropical cyclones...... it will be cool then (for us), perhaps a Nor'Wester will blow in and temperature will be as low as 75 degrees F! I've only been chilly here in the 11 years we've lived here...... and I just laid in bed and enjoyed it! It was in December and it was a chilly 64 degrees! Good diving then. Water is usually clear.
willdd1979

so what is with 10?
All of the Cayman Islands are beautiful..... of course I'm biased, but I think Cayman Brac is the most scenic
Wildd..... I say that if you're a sophomore, you're 95% a meteorologist and for certain 200% more informed than I am. I come here to learn from people like you. :)
to the person who took Dr. Lyon's comment out of text: you took his comment out of context, and/or clearly have little grasp of the tropics, and simply misunderstood him...

...

re: the gulf of mexico TC and the NOGAPS...
if you look at the loops you can already see that the trough in the carribbean has literally pulled the heat low from central america/panama tonight, and even tho shear is high within that general area of troughiness, some attempt to consolidate the storms under what was a heat low now seems to be occurring tonight ...

another thing.. the gulf has a lot more moisture in general this week than the past few .. also, no recent storms to leave some cool streaks and pockets .. etc.

i can "buy" into the forecast of a tc forming here (gulf/carribbean) in the next 4 days.. or less

wabit = where do you live; mind if I ask?
I "think" it will survive but if I had to be technical so to say I would say it has a chance of surviving all it has to do is survive and then it won't haveany problem strengthening above TD. When I say it won't have any prob. strengthening I mean it won't be as hard for it to strengthen as it was as hard for it to hold on to being a TD and hold on to it's low level circulation.
well when I watched the weather channel he also spoke about that blob of covection in the carib. he said that sometimes a trough can pull a low from inland out into the ocean and that is what happened with a low that was over S. America it got pulled out into the water where that blob of convection is.
hurricane crab

i leave in peoria il but have lived in fl(springhill) mississippi(camille) kenia alaska(-65) thule greenland (-67)
Yah. We've been watching that low over S. America. It's just like you said..... it got sucked into the sea
if those are what yrs. you lived in those places in parenthesis i feel like a baby in here lol.
willdd1979

no that was the temperature notice the minus sigh and if the were years only a few off
Wildd - get used to it ...... I was born in '58 (why do I feel there ought to be an 'aught' before that?)
what I wasn't even thought of yet in '58'matter of fact neither was my mother! It's ok one day I'll be older too.
Wabit - ahhhh I miss the coolth..... -65... with a wind chill of - 82 no doubt.... I spent several years in Alaska... if we could just import a little coolth for a few MONTHS
hurricanecrab

how high in elevation is the cave u go to
ha ha Wildd No use trying to make me feel better :)
hurricanecrab

in the military
wabit - the cave is 80+ feet above high tide. We have another closer to our house that is 57 feet above HT, but I've yet to build a staircase to it. Maximum elevation here is 140 feet.
wabit - military no more.
gotcha ...I believe the good doctor was simply implying that there were no immediate threats or very impressive candidates off of africa tonight... essentially, when you are broadcasting weather forecasts around the globe you don't want to sound the alarm bell everytime there is yet another candidate .. i really think that few, if any, ocm's have such a fantastic grasp of the tropics as Dr. Lyons does
well, everybody.... this old B******d has gotta go to bed. It's nearly 1:00 a.m. Great talking with everyone. G'nite
Remenants of TD10 look much healthier, compared to 5 hours ago. Some were talking of its demise because of its apparent loss of almost all convection, but I guess this goes to show that this thing has a will to survive. Thunderstorms have formed again on the eastern side of the circulation, and the cloud tops are continuing to cool as the hours pass. Center of cirulation is around 18N60W heading WNW.

Elsewhere, between 10-20N 70-80W large flare ups of thunderstorms, some rather intense, have formed. Could just be flare ups, or something that may try to get organized, its still way too early to know.

A rather impressive thunderstorm complex over western Africa, near 15N10W, is being picked up by some of the models as a potential depression once is gets west of the Cape Verde islands.

A tropical wave near 18N35W isn't showing any signs of organization, but should be watched as it continues to head west.
It does look like TD 10 will live to see another day. The convection seems to be developing pretty well near the center. Look at the southward shift in all of the models! What is everyones take on this?
Now Irene looks like the heavy cloudcover that has been sitting on top of Scandinavia for much of July and given us appaling summer weather. Wet, cold and miserable.
I have to go to work so I will make this quick. TD 10 made it through the night so it has a better chance of developing since the shear is relaxing. The key today is the recon flight. Before I go read this. . .

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT NEAR OR TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
INTERESTS AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ok now talked enough about TD 10 can take some time i want to know what you guys think about the wave above columbia looks seerious out there
ARIBBEAN...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N82W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ENE TO OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING NE
FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER UPPER AIR AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLING OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GENERATING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH
TWO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF
13N80W AND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N71W TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 12.5N71.5W THEN W TO 12N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE CARIBBEAN W OF 69W WITH
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION S OF 12N W OF 80W AND OVER PANAMA. THE
E CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE UNDER W UPPER FLOW
FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W. DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES INCREASING FRI INTO
SAT.
What is causing the southward shift in the models?
which models?
its the slower movement of the storm, but even more so, its a very weak storm. weaker storms follow low levels winds, stronger storms follow upper level patterns. the shallow BAMM models do a much better job at forecasting weak storms, thus the shift to the south.......at least this is part of the reason. mostly likely they have many other variables that go into making this shift.
Current model forecast...Link...It looks like the shallow models take it more south, which makes sense, if the storm continues to be this weak. My thinking is if it follows that southern path it will be weak. BUT, if it was weak and followed that path it could slip inot the gulf...hmmmm..Something to think about...Personally I still think it heads more NW...Time will tell.
Evolution were you reading my mind..lol...
Also looking at all the models this morning, it really is going to be a battle between bermuda high ridging back towards the west and trough moving towards the East Coast. As the trough moves east the bermuda high builds west. Compared to yesterday's models runs the bermuda high is stronger, also could be why the models have shifted south.
yes indeed weatherguy. very difficult to predict the outcome or strength of either the TROF or the High. Makes for a very fluid forecast period. only time will tell. i also touch on this a bit in the evolution blog.
Of course with all that said, the shear around this system still looks terrible today...Link...We may have minimal depression today at the most.
342. cjnew
oh wow! i just looked at those models and they are very split up. There are models taking it west and those that dont take it west take nw then n....happy medium?
Here is more information about trough moving towards SE US by end of weekend from local JAX discussion...LONG TERM...GFS NOW HAS A SERIES OF ATYPICALLY STRONG SHORTWAVES
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATE.
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN LARGELY ZONAL MAKING IT DIFFICULT
FOR ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEX DOES DROP TEMPS AND MOISTURE VALUES
BY NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON SUCH A SOLUTION.

Some of the models do want to develop a strong trough in this region. Hard to believe this time of year. But something to keep in the back of your mind.
The new models lost the huge wave that was supposed to come off of Africa. . .looks like we wont have such a large wave after all.
this group of models does not look good for south florida
Link

It looks to be organizing, next few hours before the hunter gets out of there are going to be interesting. See if the convection holds up or not.
Sure looks that way miamihurricane12, but from what I can tell many still think it will make that turn, if this storm even develops.
lol the models would lose there head if they had one...
yes naples the storm has to develop first...
right now it has a lot of convection but its very disorganized...it doesnt look like a tropical system...shear must still be taking a toll on this one...they may even cancel the recon...
you know irene looks pretty cute this morning...what a storm that would of been if she wouldnt of had all the problems...
2.5 weeks remaining :/ before we go in the worst month
Looks like TD10 has started moving a little more n of due west in the past 2 hrs. Convection looks like it is starting to die down and spread out though. When does it look like the shear will die down around this system?
no 147 this week coming up will be hell week....
it doesnt storm not for a while
i would not all be surprised if they cancelled the recon today...it just does not look symetrical in anyway just a blob...
youre not nice stomrtop ;) i thought i could relax two weeks :) but i dont think a hurricane wil hil hit curacao this year
i wouldnt be to sure this is 2005 remember..if one would hit i would think it would be in late october or early november...
yeah ok the last one was in 1877 and they said once in the hundread years a hurricane will hit curacao :-(
im keeping my eyes on 18.0n and 82.0w...bears watching little shear and hot temps...could do something in a few days..
well 147 you are over due for one...
happily i found this site so i know what i have to do
yeah i'm watching that one too hope it comes a bit closer so i can have what rain and wind but not too close
RECON IS GOIN G TO HEAD DOWN THERE TODAY...its not been cancelled....i hope they find a depression..

ok when we know the results?
When would we get upper air data around TD 10 to feed the mindless models?
the hurricane center in miami in report at 5:30edt that 10 had turned in to a tropical wave