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TD 10 is dead, and will rise no more!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2005

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters flew into the remnants of TD 10 east of Puerto Rico this afternoon, and found that the system no longer had a closed circulation. Satellite images show that the system has deteriorated significantly this afternoon, with very little deep convection occurring. Surface winds measured by the Quikscat satellite are under 20 knots and TD 10's remains have become a tropical wave over the Atlantic. Regeneration into a tropical depression is very unlikely, as this would take several days, and the system will be experiencing increasing shear by Sunday.

I can't see any obvious reason why the system fell apart today; vertical wind shear values have continued to decrease, and are now down to 5-10 knots. Water vapor satellite imagery shows no dry air around the system. Situtations like this emphasize how little we understand about the formation process of tropical storms.

The remainder of the tropics are quiet. There is considerable cloud cover over portions of the southern Caribbean, but wind shear levels are near 20 knots over most of the region--too high to permit tropical development.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Big dissapointment. Now we wait for TD11...anxiously
I predicted it to be dead but oh well. So Dr. masters when will the wind shear & the dust be gone so these waves can have a fighting chance. Do you think this will still be a highly active year or not anymore because of no TC forming as of lately?
10 is a survivor! I'm not counting 10 as gone yet - there still seems to be some remnant of the remnant left - a hint of a hint still in the loops. Of course, what do I know, and if things don't regenerate soon of course I'll know that is indeed dead like everyone else, but I'm not counting 10 as dead yet.
Dr Masters

it looks to me (my opinion) that there is a dry slot of air to east of td10. per the n-s cloud line east of the old center. seems some of the dry air is over riding the the eastern edge believe this was caused by the reduced forward movement of td10.

your opinion pls
dang
so once again mother nature defeat us
this sucks now the water is still hot :S the dust stopped so the next hurricane that pass by will be horrible
on the weather channel they just talked to a researcher on the hurricane hunter and he said that thethunderstorms are low and that there is a weak circulationand it is very disorganized, never calling it dead, just very disorganized, if the satellite looks the same way at 12 tonight then i will classify it as dead.
It still looks to have better circulation than it did last night to me, but the experts are most likely right about it being dead.


could some one direct me to a site where i could find surface analysis maps of the atlantic and the caribbean??
Last night it looked dead. Did it die? NO. Today the recon flight just confirmed that TD 10 was not a tropical depression. Hey, what do you call a tropical system that is not a depression? Read this from Dr. Masters' blog. . .

I can't see any obvious reason why the system fell apart today; vertical wind shear values have continued to decrease, and are now down to 5-10 knots. Water vapor satellite imagery shows no dry air around the system.

These conditions still exist.In fact, you have to admit the conditions are becoming more favorable for development. As Dr. Masters said "I can't see any obvious reason why the system fell apart today." read my blog and I will explain why we shouldn't be giving this system its last rites.
and you will see that it will regenerate tonight :P
nice blog ww07; I learn more and more every day. Why did they spend all the $ on a recon flight, if it's 'dead"....if it's so "dead" couldn't they have told that from satelite imagery? Maybe they are just a little uncertain as well.
WABIT - check out www.independentwx.com...... click on the "tropical WX" section and you find a myriad of maps, analyses, etc. Click on the CIMMS upper air winds and then "winds and analyses" and you find all sorts of low, mid and upper winds etc. etc. Sarharan air layer, ITCZ and so on
CIMMS also does a very detailed analysis of all tropical activities..... you can spend HOURS looking at maps to your heart's content....
Everyone visit my personal blog page if you are intrested in TD 10 and the possibilities. IT IS NOT DEAD YET. I encourage to visit my blog and (hopefully) hear some convincing evidence about 10's possible development/DEATH. But trust me, IT IS NOT DEAD YET!!
For all of the talk about a record number of named storms etc. the 1st three weeks of August is shaping up to be one of the quietest on record. Like they say, it's hard to make predictions especially when they involve the future!
hurricanecrab

tks for that site and i will be there for hours
weatherwatcher

with the ridge to the west, dry air over taking it from the east, wind shear from the south, no circulation, the open wave will have little chance of reviving its self
WTH do you want these storms to cause destruction and death or something?Y'all I think are forgeting what you are doing and are crying out how it aint dead yet which by the way it is.But there will be more activity to come just wait till september,I myself think it is very interesting to expeirience these storms but at the same time there is destruction and often death which is the part I don't care for so,remember this that yes it is interesting but do not get to the point where you want it that much it is a dead system....
I thought it would develop today myself but apperently we just don't know about these storms that much and it isn't like It cant re - develop soon but it will take much longer and will likely be nothing to ever worry about.
There seems to be some new convection well to the ENE of the center of TD10. I am not sure that TD10 will be able to get it back together though. As for a slow August in the tropics-It is only slow compared to what we have had so far. There is always the possability of an active October. Or even a rogue storm in November. Not to mention we are just starting to get close to the peek of the season.
This is normal for it to look sickly. Has it done this more than once? Yes. Will it do it again? Yes.

I think we should wait for some type of trend where the satellite presentation isn't impressive for more than 24 hours before calling it dead.

Models, NHC, and others have been conservative this year on tracks, intensity, and speed of movement so we'll see if their conservative attitude is right this time.
Check out the thunderstorms in Western Africa, around 15N10W. Heres an infrared loop Link
Of course Stormtop is nowhere to be found. Cmon I would of won my bet..lol..Remember..."It's not a wave."..Stormtop...Oh well maybe your Cat 5 will be developing soon..Until later...
He may just get his category 5's as september arives,I have a feeling the rest of the season will be wild and STORMTOP may get his wish.
So then he won't be developing upper lows into category 3's lol(an exageration) he will actually have some good systems that will develop into monsters.
Have any of you notice that the convection of td 10 is farther west around 62w. Accuweather says that the convection is part of the main low level circulation. If there is any chance of development(5%) it would take place here. it would have to rebuild itself fast though because once it hits the shear this weekend it would have NO CHANCE.

I'm not rooting it on, I'm just keeping a watchful eye on it.
What is everyone's thought on those storms CFL pointed out. Those are some cold cloud tops. Is it a Low? Will it develop?
That was what I meant to point out earlier 007, but I accidently stated that there was some convection to the ENE-should have read WNW.
If it rebuilds now it would have to be a pretty strong TS in order to start moving more to the north correct? If it did move in that direction (WNW or a little north there of)would the forcast shear be as high?
Here is some info on the wave around 10w. . .

A LARGE AREA OF
TSTMS IS ALONG 10W... PROBABLY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER
THE AREA. IT MIGHT BE WORTH A SMALL MENTION THAT THERE IS
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OF SOME SORT OF ATTEMPTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE WAVE AFTER IT LEAVES THE COAST IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
AT THE SURFACE... 1025 MB HIGH LIES NEAR
37N35W RIDGING TO 30N43W THEN SW TO 25N60W. TRADES ARE BELOW
AVERAGE IN THE DEEP TROPICS.
You can see some faint evidence of low level circulation to the W of that convection. Maybe TD10 is not done.
You can also see that in the last hour the NW quadrant has picked up thunderstorm activity. I am going to name this storm the Lazarus storm.........just when you think it is dead it is not......
That's a good one SBD!
The remnants are being carried along beneath a very strong bermuda high and will very unlikely turn north at all, it even has the potential to enter the gulf with the current situation.
WHat happened to the strong trough?
I dont know but I guess it isn't strong enough all the models have continued to switch further to the west and it seems that it will only be able to weaken part of it and only temporarily as it is frecasted to build back too quickily.
Jed TD #10 does come bakc to life and enters the gulf where will that leave the high that is over us right now. I know that the local weather is saying that our rain chances are going back up next week.
I think TD 10 is DEAD! If it moves into the gulf, could it redevelop there?
That is, if the shear doesn't rip it to unrevivable shreds first.
I have these links for everyone to look at before I go. These loops show that td 10 may be trying to reform to the west of where it once was. If that is the case, td 10 may not be dead, just redeveloping.

Link

This second one is a water vapor loop. Look at how the moisture fizzled and then reformed.

Link

This last one may be the most convincing. But I can't see a really good circulation.

Link

This link also shows the convection in the carribean sea.
NAHHHHHHHHHH!
You have to admit though evan, this season has been crazy. If but this trend must continue for the next 24 hours for any chance for development.

The loop's don't lie.
Sorry WW007 I don't see it, but the wave that is still in Africa looks scary. That will be a monster. Mark my words
over 24 hours we got 3 TS then we would be suprised :P
weatherwacher

what are the lat/long of what u are seeing
Yeah, that will be but it is still too early to discuss that. too many factors could effect it. (dust, dry air, shear) I have my eye on it though. The trades in the tropics will be weaker, I think. It looks like it. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.
Around 62w 20n. I will be updating my personal blog tomorrow with the latest models, information and loops of the wave in Africa, the carribean and info on td 10. Until then. . .

Keep an eye on the tropics.
sorry my last post was for weatherwatcher007

fat fingers
I think we are seeing remenants of TD10 starting to consolidate its convection, just like last night. Tomorrow may be a better day for remenants of TD10 if it can manage to hold its convection through the night. I can't see why its having a hard time seeing that the shear values have lowered quite a bit in the extreme northeast Caribbean Sea.

I'm still standing by my previous statement that we haven't seen the end of the remenants of TD10.

As stated before, models are almost all pointing to the huge thunderstorm complex over Western Africa forming into a tropical cyclone. This soon to be wave is very impressive looking, and is the largest wave in many weeks.
Wabbit, did the sites for the recon work for you finally. It is really useful and if you need help translating I'm happy to help.

The area that is coming off africa must be watched, but many systems look as good or better and do nothing. All we can do is watched.
txweather

yes the links did help! but i believe you misread some of the data there
where.
I might be the only one...but I think the remains of TD10 are looking better each hour. I think it could be named again tomorrow.....I know I am in the minority, but this could be a strong storm if it makes the Gulf of Mexico.
I mean which did I misread. All showed se winds with high press.
tx
line d is the forcast position meaning is where the td was to be at and where the plane was flying to
Here is a link to show what I am talking about with it getting better looking in the last hour link
I wish I had a dollar for every storm I've seen over Africa that looked huge....and then fizzled. But you never know. Every now and then one does get going. I guess. I just can't remember ever seeing any one big storm go all the way from the African coast to the US coast, but I've only been watching for 30 years.
let me see, I've read these for years.
Ok I see, your looking at the plan of the day. Here's an example

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
1. FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 18/1800Z A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0110A INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 18/1200Z C. 19/0000Z
D. 19.2N 61.2W D. 20.4N 63.4W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2130Z E. 19/0500Z TO 19/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUED 12 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REDEVLOPS AND IS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

here line "d" is where they are going.

I was looking at the recco obs

000
URNT11 KNHC 182000
97779 19524 50177 63500 30500 08014 08061 /3193
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 26
LAST REPORT.

here 50177 tells the lat, and 63500 gives the long.
line d is the forcast postion for the td not the postion of the plane in flight
i agree southbeachdude...still needs to be watched. CLOSELY
Right wabbit, but not on the reco obs. I wasn't lloking at the plan of the day.
The plan of the day(POD) is issued once a day. I was looking at the URNT11's.
tx

ok
tx - the reco obs is a realtime page? what would that link be?
the lastest from the hurricane center is
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
just click on recco(tropical cyclone) and that gives you the last.

Also my earlier link to the fsu site gives them too you grouped by hours. The thing is that the FTP server makes my comp at elast go real slow and sometimes freeze up. Also during a storm you'll see urnt12's listed. Those are the vortex messages.
i was on the u of wi site and just didn't see the info you were giving because it wasn't there!
Here's a question for the experts.....what is the bright red that just showed up in the color infrared loop for TD10? Does this have anything to do with intensity? Does it show strengthening? Or is this normal for the evening? Thanks...

link
ok i was actually getting alittle scared that I was looking at old data or the wrong day for aliitle bit earlier. Those around me know I am very smart, but am prone to stupid errors so I really was wondering if I had made another one.:).
I could not sleep until I read the tropical weather outlook. It doesn't mention anything at all. As I wrote earlier, the convection seems to be reorganizing to the west of the former position. Well I looked at the new loop and what I saw was intresting. . .

Link

When you look at this, you see that the reorganizing convection is deepening every hour and I believe that if this trend continues for the next 24 hours then it will be reclassified as a tropical depression. TD 10 is not dead yet.

As for the African wave, It looks very impressive however, many waves do and once they hit the ocean they die. I think it is too early to begin thinking about the african wave because of the uncertainty. It should be looked at after it becomes classified and after we know for certain that td 10 is dead. Too early to call that one but my best guess is that this new convection becomes a trend and that 10 td either reorganizes or dies.

southbeach I'm looking right now. I'm on dial up so it might take awhile.
This could just be because it is night, however it needs to be a trend for at least 24 hours for the NHC to take it seriously again. This could either be a valid attempt at reorganization or this could be TD 10's last stand.

The next 24 hours are vital.
It's do or die.

Until next time. . .

Keep an eye on the tropics
So is the old 'TD 10' dead, asleep or just confused? In a poll yesterday I called on it to never develop and still think that is the most likely option. The African wave will develop I am sure--but I think it will ultimately head into the central or western Atlantic and not hit land. Having said all that I am 0-3 on my predictions for Dennis, Emily and Irene, so be sure to cancel the homeowners insurance if I think a storm is going to hit you!
After looking at the loop, it clear that convection is increasing. However this is normal for this time of day. We'll have to wait till tomorrow to see if it has persisted or died off and to see if there is any rotaion at the surface.

Looking at the san juan radar I see little rotation so we'll still call development unliklely. But with the tropics you never say never.

Stsimon, I agree on the area coming off africa, too far north,too far east.
That poll was very informative. 40% said dissipation, and 50% had a stronger system making it to Florida. Overall, this seems realistic based on what we see now, and how fast systems could develop in the Bahamas this time of year. The consensus is for the remnants to head to Florida.
Considering what we have seen so far this season, we will see a tropical cylone result from the mass of scattered convection near TD10 Remnants in about 2 days. I am confident they (NHC) will continue this system as TD10. Flaweather.com
Hello everyone! I would have to say that TD formally known as 10 is about as predictable as an afternoon shower around South Florida. Impressive tonight yes, Impressive last night yes, Impressive the night before yes. See a trend, the wind in florida may dry the cloths a little faster.
TD formally known as 10 is not a morning person
Well the latest shear analysis says that remains of TD10 are moving in to an area of 20+knt shear so I would guess that this flareup will be unable to resurrect the well defined center that existed before today.
When we saw a forecast of 10 to 15 kt. shear today, TD 10 degenerated to a wave. With a forecast of 20kt. shear on Friday, forecast, all is uncertain, and we should only rely on current satellite and radar (San Juan Nexrad) for evidence of any circulation.
will the large high pressure over fla have an effect on td
High pressure, although present to the North, should not be a concern at this point. The remnants of TD10 will move in a direction with respect to how deep (strong) it is over the next few days
I wouldn't be surprised if as an area of disturbed weather it headed west under the ridge. The funny thing is for this brief period it was in a low shear enviroment. Maybe thats why convection flared up and remained near the center tonight. But the shear upstream seems to be worse and increasing. I don't see much better conditions on the GFS(btw my above observation was from current analysis,not models) till at least the s bahamas in 2 days and realisticly there probably won't be much left at that point unless it can generate more than it has.

Now as to where the shear will be tolerable, basically from 600east of the lesser antillies on through the carribean and w/central gulf, that area could spawn something if a disturbance got going. but the pattern is such that no storm could move into that area. Right now we must hope that no disturbance got going in the w carribean, because then it would have an excellent enviroment from 2 days on. Though fl seems safe as the east gul looks to have 30knts+ shear.
This thing is about as predictable as a coin toss. One hour it looks like it is completely void of any convection, then the next hour it has an explosion of convection with ever increasing cooling cloud tops.

I'm really worried about this if it manages to make it to named storm status, it just seems like it has the potential to organize very quickly if given the chance and right enviornment. It seems as if it is destined to stay alive, even if it is only a tropical depression or impressive tropical wave.

We do not have any systems to worry about developing in the Gulf at this point. The reason I mention the remnants of TD 10 is that, not only was it resistent to extreme (>25kt.) shear prior to today, there seemed to be sufficient moisture for survival. Now that shear is down to 10kt., and shear is expected to increase to 15 to 20kt. in 2 days, we should see that this particular system may indeed survive in one way or another... I am going by past persistence at this point for this system.
CFL, Thats about as accurate as you cane be about TD 10 remnants right now. Recall last year's Jeanne, which died out completely and those who chose to watch, saw Jeanne defy all odds and reintensify. If anybody said 1 week before landfall, that Jeanne would hit Port. St. Lucie in 7 days, that gamble would be similar to the Lotto. The same chances go for TD 10 remnants.
When I was talking about the favorable areas above i was mentioning them in a broadbrush sense. Basically saying where we don't want a disturbance to pop up. I don't see anything either developing, basically just saying where we need to watch. I don't see anything specific that I see devloping.
It will be interesting to see what will result from the
A) African Dry Air East of the TD10 remnants
combining with,
B) The surface trough over the Caribbean
C) The upper low North of TD 10's remnants.

The combined 3 should produce some decent convection tonight North of Puerto Rico, along with near TD 10 Remnants. This does not mean a regeneration of TD 10.
When we hear a far cry out in the ocean, ADRIANNNNNNE,,,,,,,,,,,ADRIANNNNNNNNNNEEEE we need to worry. 10 is on a very long walk off a short pier.
Well i better go. This is one thing I've alwyas loved about hurricane season. Waking up the next morning to see how things have changed. This is why I became a meterologist. Later.
What's this, I wake up and Ten has more convection in one place than it has in days.
Interestingly enough, it has started generating more convection than usual before the dirunal period really kicks in. Last night, and the night before that, convection started showing up at 1-3am EST, tonight it started at about 8-9pm EST.
Just what I was thinking CFL. And now I know how to spell Dirunal cycle or period or whatever the hellit is. It will be intresting to see what the rest of the early morning holds for it.
My mistake, it is D-I-U-R-N-A-L
does it look like 10 has lost some of the convection, that it earlier displayed
Very impressive views as of late
No Wabit, if anything it looks like the convection is still growing and persisting at least from the 4:15 floater loop that I just looked at.
Prgressive did you not just say something about a long walk and short pier?
I'm thinking if the recon goes out tomorrow, they MAY observe a low level feature. That is, if this convection lasts through tomorrow afternoon.
Can you explain how the diurnal period works CFL? Sorry I can not get all of my thoughts together in one post. I just woke up to take a quic peek at TD10 on it's way out. LOL
still nothing on the south east / west though.
i too was looking at the 415 loop of water vapor seems to be less then earlier thus a reduction in covection or am i wrong
They will not go today because they wasted all of their gas yesterday.
I still am not seeing any curvature on the south side but I mainly posted that comment to get objective responses.
Just seems that the coldest cloud tops are jumping around, but over all I would say that the convection is increasing. Look at the IR loop. It seems to be getting some convection starting on the SW side if that is even the real center I am seeing. The true center may be more under the center of the convection.
Sorry Last post should have said SE side.
Storms slow down at night and speed up during daylight due to the energy absorbtion of the sun.
Seems that convection reformed northwest of what was previously td10. Will have to perform quickly as it is to say alive.
i don't thank 10 has a center since it was declared a tropical wave...and i haven't seen any circulation
cfl

didn't u say in an earlier post that 10 had a history of increased convection after 0100 am edt
SSMI Color 85GHz appears to show a center, around 17.5N. Albeit, its a mid level circulation.
whitewabit-yes the past few days remenants of TD10 had a history of forming convection anywhere from 1-3am.
I agree white, I should have been more clear. Hence my comments on nothing on the south side. I was reffering to the jump northwest of the satalite images. Which is as impressive as I have seen so far the past couple days.
Many centers have been hard to find, but it does not mean that it is not there. No matter what the case it looks a whole lot healthier than it has in the past 36 hrs.
Being the first night without alot of shear, it may stick?
It is also interesting to note that the convection in the rest of the Gulf and Carib has been dying off for the past few hours.
This is why we love the tropics our guesses are sometimes just as good as those three figured meterologist.
ProgressivePuslse-your right, it may stick. The lighter shear was likely the cause of the increased convection last night/this morning. And the air isn't so dry ahead of remenants of TD10. We will know for sure by 3pm or so whether its going to stick.
Agree Storm, kinda like a light switch.
I am new here so I will introduce myself, name is Ryan and I live in Palm Beach, FL went through Frances and Jeanne after being here only a year, welcome to Florida.
It is sad, but those 30 minute floater loop intervals are to me like crack or herion is to a real junkie.
Doe any one know what the high over Florida is doing?
Well I can tell you the Weather has been completely clear past couple of days with storms west. Supposed to get storms and relief from the heat in a couple of days. When have the local weather guys been right though?
The little train that could is showing convection almost 360, hence ALMOST.
Welcome PP I am from Charleston and have been through Hugo, acouple of tropical storms including Gaston last year and a lot of near misses. The power these sytems sustain is amazing. Frances must have been nerver racking as long as it stuck around trying to make landfall.
I tell you what storm, for a first timer, Frances sucked. Almost 24 hours of madness, winds were below mass damage but was rather intense for a first timer, bring the new guys in the right way as they say.
WHere the hell is the 4:45 image, it is past 6:00. AGHH! lol
Question? will the system to the extreme south west of former Td10 enduce rotation?
I think that the shear is pretty high down there. Yesterday The Weather Channel stated that it was an area that needed to be watched, but I think that it has now been dismissed due to shear.
What I am saying is that it seems that 10 is absorbing all in the area and the flow to the south east of 10 is moving from the north west, will this enhance rotation in 10?
sorry, southwest
seems like on the water vapor there is a circulation with the remains of TD10, but probably in the mid-levels. I see it in the far NW portion of the system. I personally think it re-develops. But it will be southwest of where they looked at today. It also seems that it will have to drive thru a old troff that is sitting over the Atlantic ahead of it??
Also, For another very intresting look at this system, check the 248NM long range doppler radar from Ponce, Pr.
Can you give me a link for that radar?
The convection still seems to be sticking. Very intresting.
Link that is for the Puerto Rican radar
So what is everyones take on the convection around TD10?
I am as interested in storms and weather as the rest of you but would comment:

1 As Jed observes hurricanes can be hideous things. Let's not regret the demise of a TD, TS or hurricane. Let's not use language treating their strengthening as a good thing. (Even Jeff is guilty of this). Let's observe and study but be cool.
2 About 90% of what is posted is drivel. Could the mouthier people consider reducing their comments to say 3 a day. The blog would then be much more interesting.
3 It would be worth having more commentary from Jeff on the East Pacific. These storms seem to be mainly harmless (unless you'r on the water there) but can be interesting particularly the last two that fizzled east of Hawaii. It would be interesting to know what happens. Do some of them become west pacific cyclones?
Pieman-First of all the multiple posts and color comentary and predictions by people like myself is what makes this fun for some people. So please understand that some of us are as intrested in the scientific side of this as we are in the opinions of others no matter how far fetched or off topic they are.
Second-Being happy, disappointed, desiring or discouraging tropical devlopment does not accomplish anything. We have NO control over what these systems do. For those of us that do admire these systems and to some degree want them to develop it is not something that we can help. It is in our nature. I for one, and most likely the others like myself, do not want anyone to be harmed but again I have no control over this.
Lastly-We should all remember that there are pros and cons to tropical systems developing and even making land fall. I will give you a few examples.
1. Weak tropical systems can help cool the overly hot ocean temperatures which in turn may help prevent future storms from developing in to CAT 4 & 5.
2. They are mother natures way of getting moisture up towards the north pole.
3. When they make landfall they clear out trees which in turn allows new growth and overtime the fallen trees provide nutrients to the soil.
4. I have said this before and will say it again. People, myself included have become self centered. If you have ever witnessed a community and nation come together after one of these storms or any other natural disaster then you have seen the potential that we have when we pull together. It is ashame that it takes this to pull us away from our own little worlds, but that seems to be how it is.

In closing- We can not help the fact and even should be thankful that we live in an area where we can watch and monitor our natural disasters before they happen. Thse poor people in Wis. were lucky if they got 20 minutes notice before the tornados hit.

Sorry for the long post, but I like many others, can not help the fact that we are addicted to tropical systems. We are not evil people. So please quit trying to make us feel like we are.

So, Pieman2 you want us to track storms in the East Pacific because they are harmless??? I for one live in Puerto Rico and want to be informed and learn about the storms and hurricanes that can be heading my way or to Florida where I have family and friends.
Remeber Pieman-you started this off topic "drivel"
Well stated StormJunkie.... (is that pithy enough)?

BTW, Finally someone on tv agreed with many of the fine people on this site saying there might be something to watch in the tropics. This is important to me since I live near the coast and need to stock up if this is serious. Thanks...
TD 10 looks very disorganised now
Stormjunkie, I enjoy your posts and that goes for everyone else. No need to cut down, this is a "commentray" blog. One man's drivel is another man's treasure I guess.
anyone catch the flick on hurricanes last night on science channel? said if we get another andrew that hits miami, it will be a 100 billion dollar hit! Hows that for becoming the most famous hurricane???!!!
(rolls subject dice)

Okay lateral change in subjects. Does anyone think this season will produce a cat5 with a lower presure than the Fl, Labor Day Storm (ie lower than 926mb) or higher winds than Camile (ie greater than 190mph)
dont count out 10 dead yet convection is picking up around the center...this thing is getting better organized just off the coast of puerto rico...look at the radar its not heavy but it has increased in the past hour...i say this thing develops late today...
yes i think we will have a cat 5 stormm 2 of them this year no doubt in my mind...
its dead. . it has done this one day after another. looks like my 3 storms by next wed is gone.
hery Stormtop.. TD10 looks like its "split" in the middle, and looks like its 2 blobs now. Whats going on there?
Man you guys are funny....

You talk about TD10 like it's a relative on the brink of death that the doctors have to keep shocking back to life.. you just won't give up hope that this thing survives and strikes somewhere...I enjoy studying these systems but it's just as interesting to me to study why a storm that should be intensifying is dying as it is to monitor a powerful hurricane that causes so much damage....

These storms are a part of life and natures'way of balancing itself out just as wildfires, tornados..etc....are

This thread definitely makes for entertaining, sometimes irritating, but definitely entertaining reading....
whats going on ists forming a new center ne of puerto rico...this thing is a sleeper no shear this morning and it will regenerate...we will have to deal with td 10.......
sleeper eh? I heard that one before..you remember right...Irene!! Ended up being a nobody...
there is a good circulation near 80 degrees in the caribbean...
Convection looks like it is starting to die down some, but it looks better than it did yesterday. We would have to have some afternoon convection develop in order to keep TD10 alive and then with the nightly convection it may be able to strengthen. SOMEONE BREAK OUT THE AUTOMATIC DEFRIBRILATOR!
yes whirlwind i dont care what pirate thinks we hadnt heard the last of td 10.......
Irene was not a nobody it just did not make landfall.
that blob ne of puerto rico is the new center.....its showing a counter clockwise circulation now...it wasnt yesterday..
so.. what happened to all the anti-hurricane folks. havent heard from them... looks like they are hiding in their bunkers.. hahaha
lmao.....stormjunkie
i can see the circulation somewhat..it looks like its leaving behind the blob that broke away from it and starting up without it

someone need to go over there and warm the waters up for him...Stormjunkie..grab that industrial heater and lets go!!!!
check the radar at san juan the convection to the s of the island is moving west while the convection n of the isalnd is moving n....this thing is getting better organized...
Of course there is always a chance td10 revives. It's just funny how ya'll are rooting for this 98 pound weakling. I would really start watching the tropics end of next week first of September....
I guess it's a bit unpredictable but as far as I am concerned it will head for florida and if don't develop it will just enhance rain chances.
'course if td10 goes through the johnny weissmuller workout look out...it'll be kicking sand in someones face.....
I dont see any circulation. All i see is a location that looks like it could be a center, but than you look at a water vapor loop and you can easily see that there is no circulation at all. This system is dead at this time. And if the Dr. is right and shear picks up on Saturday/Sunday, this storm as good as gone.
169. WSI
The anti-hurricane folks are still around whirlwind. You know whirlwind, I thought for a while... "why would someone want a storm to plow over them and cause massive destruction." Then it hit me. Most of you that want that are probably young and still live at home with your parents. If your area was destroyed, you personally wouldn't lose anything at all besides maybe a computer or maybe a car that insurance would pay for more or less. You wouldn't have to worry about putting a house back together, and you wouldn't worry about where your family was going to stay for months on end while things are being rebuilt. That would be your parents job. You wouldn't have to worry about your insurance not paying all it said it was going to, and you wouldn't have to worry about losing your job because the hurricane wiped your office off the map and forced the company to shut down a while. Where is the paycheck to pay the bills going to come from then? This isn't a dig or an insult, its just an observation. See these are the things many of us worry about when we hear of a massive storm heading for land. We don't "root" for the storm. Maybe that adds some perspective. Again, this wasn't meant to be an insult, just an observation. Maybe I am way off on it.
someone give this guy a percocet or is he hyperventilating from what he wrote...aaahhhhh
let me clear this up...

I dont live with mommy or daddy. I am young..28.
Anyways, a cat 4,5 would be sorta dangerous(ha) so something weaker would be called for.

Only reason I said were "you" people are at is I didnt hear all the bickering you guys normally do....
l0l but he is right
when the wind speeds doubles the damage is 8 times bigger
hey,,did u catch the show on science channel last night 147? on hurricanes? showed somewhere around 130+mph is needed to really start lifting your roof...what is that..a cat 4.(your roof will vary)
WSI...your last post is an exact mirror of my thoughts. I come here to gain insight as to info I can use to safeguard my family and property. When I find knuckleheads rooting for a storm to grow or making wild predictions about landfall when it's 2 weeks away, I wonder if they should even allow this blog. I don't see any redeeming value in it.
176. WSI
Quote - "I dont live with mommy or daddy. I am young..28.
Anyways, a cat 4,5 would be sorta dangerous(ha) so something weaker would be called for."

Earlier quote from whirlwind - "The more $ they cause in damage, the more interesting they are...So far Dennis is the VIP as of so far"

Well a while back whirlwind, you said the more damage the better. Remember when we discussed Andrew? Who will remember a weaker storm? Remember? Your posts seem to be at odds with one another. Sorry, I am just sick of cheering the storms on.. "come to daddy", etc. Little disrespectful to those who have something to lose.
..or those who have suffered real losses. WSI, they have no idea what that pain feels like...or I promise, they wouldn't root for a storm.
People wishing for storms to hit Florida might want to read the papers. Due to all the storms last year every FL homeowner that has homeowners insurance (from any company) will be assessed almost $700 for every $1000 of insurance premiums you pay to bail out the state owned Citizen insurance company. This is on top of any rate increases that your insurance company is already imposing.

So even if the storms didn't hit your area, they are still going to affect you anywhere in FL. If we get more storms this year then things are only going to get worse.
WSI...'so something weaker would be called for." meaning exactly over my roof. If the eye goes a few miles from my roof, thats fine.

And yes that quote with the damage they cause still stands.

(someone got my back here, where are all my boys)
180. WSI
I personally have never lost much to a storm, but I have known people who did. I would never wish that to happen on anyone. Nothing worse than wondering what you and your family are going to do because you lost everything. You don't have to experience that to know its true.
It is not exactly rooting. WE CAN NOT CHANGE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE STORMS. If one comes on land I want to be there to stand in awe of it grace and power.
Dunhill3- a chat room isnt exactly a place to find answers to safeguard yourself. Maybe you should try searching the web, plenty of stuff there. And if you wanted more answers you should ask questions in the appropriate blog.
THREE CHEERS TO WSI!!!
He Speaks for those of us who Lurk & Post On Occasion. Wanting to learn more about hurricanes & respecting the awesome power of mother nature is what brought us (& keeps us) here. Despite the tiring antics of some.Just because we don't post every 20 seconds, doesn't mean we're not vigiliant. Please respect our prespective.
184. WSI
quote - "WSI...'so something weaker would be called for." meaning exactly over my roof. If the eye goes a few miles from my roof, thats fine."


You know, this explains a lot whirlwind. Quite sad. I hope you change, honestly. You wish damage and destruction on others for your own sick amusement. But, please don't let me stop you. Keep wishing for your massive storm so you can watch others suffer. Personally you disgust me.



You'd make a good private investigator WSI
you wouldn't be standing long....probably long enough to utter the words...Oh $h!7 this was a bad idea....
In '96 just during Hurricane Fran In NC I had 17 trees down in my yard and 3 on my roof.... I've been through 7 hurricanes since '96... try getting your wife and 3 young sons your are to protect and trying to drive in 100 mph sustained winds..with powerlines and trees falling all around you to get to a safer structure because you have no choice due to the damage of your home. You only have to do it once to not ever want to do it again.

I've said before I study weather as a hobby and I am very interested in Hurricanes and the science of the storms...but you just have an obtuse view on the systems to want these things to make landfall. True there is no way to control hurricanes and they are going to do what they will but to many who have suffered through them in the ways many have it is disturbing to read the way some of the posters on this thread think...One day when you are responsible for more than yourself you'll understand better....
Hiya :)
I have been reading for a while and this is my first post. I was just looking at Accuweather.com and they call for 78mph gusts in The Bahamas on Monday!

Link


Is this a high-percentage possibility or just a number they pulled out of the air? I know that forecasts are just that -- predictions -- but that seems to be pretty high. Thanks for any info. :)
I have posted an interesting article describing re-creation of the historical record of hurricane landfalls from oxygen isotope data in tree rings from NASA's Earth Observatory news on my blog. You can see the original at:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaAlerts/2005/2005081019956.html

In summary, hurricanes deplete the air & rain of oxygen isotope 18. By analyzing oxygen isotope ratios in late-season-growth tree rings in Georgia, they accurately re-created the hurricane landfall history of the past 100 years. Having verified the technique, they can now find older trees and estimate how many hurricanes passed through an area. Old log houses, for example, can provide tree rings hundreds of years old. Enjoy.
I'm thinking they're expecting high gusts associated with the storms that will be coming their way from what's left over of TD10. In April we had a low off the NC coast that produced an 81 mph gusts with sustained winds of 35-40...It popped up really fast...don't think they're talking sustained but possibility of..pretty musch in-line with any severe thunderstorm.
interesting article grayingwindsurfer...I'd love to see the results mapped out to show where storms impacted etc..
Wow. Thanks for the quick reply pirateotobox. I was just wondering because, so far this season, our local Met Office has been way better than some I have seen :)
Let me add to my early statement by saying that I do not live with mommy either! I do stand to lose if a storm comes my way. I only have liability on my car, I rent and do not have renters insurance, and I risk personal injury if a storm heads my way because I am not leaving.
I do know that I will be able to eat and I also know that I do not live under a repressive government. There are many things in this world that evil, but not tropical cyclones. I also do not wish for anyone to lose anything, but because of where we live the potential is there. If you want to see real hard times then go starve in Africa or try living under a Taliban type government. So please let us enjoy the tropical season. It comes every year and I will try and enjoy it then also. We all have our own way of dealing with potential destruction caused by tropical cyclones and mine is to try and understand them by witnessing and watching them anytime I get the chance.
hey mybahamas i think thats a error 78 ya right
Pirate, why in the hell would you stay in a house with your wife and three kids with so many trees around? Do not be mad at us because you did leave town, go to a shelter, or find a less wooded place to stay prior to a HURRICANE makeing landfall. Did you stay because you wanted to see the storm?

I am 33 and like most of us I DO NOT WISH HARM ON ANYONE, but again our desire to witness the power of these storms DOES NOT CHANGE WHAT THEY WILL DO.

What's going on with ole (td) 10? has it died for good or still tring to get going again?
196. WSI
StormJunkie, there is a difference between your view and whirlwind's. He WANTS to see destruction (provided it doesn't bother his house). He WANTS to see how much damage a hurricane can do. The more the better (to him). There is a difference between HOPING for destruction and being observant if the storm passes over you. You have already said you don't wish harm on anyone. That is far different from whirlwind and those like him who want to see massive destruction, with all the bad things that go along with it. Homeless families, injury, death, closed businesses, destroyed farmland, etc. Anyway, sorry for ruining the blog. There is only so much asinine talk I can stand though.
Any updates on the potential storm? We who live in FL are really interested....thanks
stormjunkie and wsi

i cant see anyone who as been through a cat three and higher would want to see another. those that are saying that they would like to ride out a hurricane haven't been through one
199. JeffM
WSI..if you dont like what your reading, dont read this site. I, like many others depend on natural disasters to earn income. The more storms the better.

Also, I was working in FL for all the hurricanes after Charley.
It is pretty much status quo with the remnants of TD10. Again last night disorganized convection tried to develop near the surface center, but again today all we have is a very weak area of surface rotation(not closed circulation) continuing to shoot toward the wnw while an area of mid-level rotation gets left behind to slowly fade away. The "new center" Stormtop talks about northeast of Puerto Rico is not at the surface and it will likely be gone by late this evening. The very weak surface rotation center is currently at about 21.5N 67.5W. The chance of this thing reforming is pretty slim at this point.

Also mentioned this morning is an area of rotation off the northeast tip of Honduras. This is also a mid-level circulation. There is an easterly surface flow across that whole area so it would take a lot of time for something to develop out of that.
JeffM
To quote CosmicEvents,

maybe you should become a mortician. You could help the bereaved get over there loss. There's guaranteed business for you there. You're not at the whim of these pesky storms that could veer out to sea and leave you high and dry. If business got a little slow as a mortician you could always root for a small epidemic, bird flu or hanta virus outbreak .
Wabit I sat through the eye of Hugo and would do it again granted I was in a safe place.

Whirlwind just does not express his point the same way I do, but I have a feeling that we get the same gut feeling when we hear the term Tropical cyclone. I do not belive that Whirl wants to see you die in a hurricane.
203. JeffM
Sorry Sheraqueenofthebeach...I don't wish for or want to deal with dead people. I only want damage to buildings/homes etc.
stormjunkie

i believe hugo was a cat 4 at landfall. i don't believe that there is a safe place to be in a hurricane of that size. with flooding, tornado's, trees falling ect
Jeff - trying to give you the benefit of doubt... would you care to state that again, in another way. Hoping I just misunderstood you. Did you REALLY mean you "want damage to buildings/homes"?? Are you SURE that's what you meant? Stop and think about that for a moment. Then reply.
come on yall stop the bickering and jets talk tropics
I don't think Stormjunkie or whirlwind's views are much different & they quite match my own. This is nature & it's fun to watch, far away or an eye over your head. Really when one hits, people here don't die unless they were doing something stupid, because we know storms are coming. And as for the aftermath & damage, it's just stuff. It's kind of a coping method. If you can get excited about living out of your comfort zone, you can make it threw an uncontrollable horrible event you know your gonna have to endure or run from & then deal with the consiquences of. Livin on the coast, I feel it's part of the excitement. Once every so often, 1 or more will come threw & change your life one way or the other, so ya might as well look forward to the time off work,chaos,lack of power & starting a new to do list.
Completely understand what you're saying Skyepony. Don't really have any problem with those that experience the 'thrill' of storms and their interactions. When they come, our lives change; I accept that. I even admit to revelling a little in the preparations, the testing of oneself. Don't understand or respect the desire to view destruction, if that's what it is. That's why I asked for a clarification.
Jeff14photos, the problem is that nothing is happening nor seems likely to happen. Thus without a storm to watch they all start talking about other things.

I believe in going to the storms rather than having them go to me. but, I always KNOW where a safe place is and where it will be safe for this particular storm. But I'm also a professional and have a good understanding of what will happen and where safe is.

That being said its just bad to hope for a storm to hit somebody. I love hurrianes and have been intrigued by them since I was eight, but I would rather they all go out to sea or hit open land where few people live.
Unlike some of you on the mainland, many of us on islands have NO. WHERE. TO. RUN. We have to make our stand and make it as good as we can; prepare for every one like it's the last. We don't have any FEMA.
Do any of you know anybody that has lost there home to one of these things? I do, and it is not like you get everything you lost in 1-3 weeks it takes months or even years. Adn you are never the same there are people living in FEMA city that still don't have there homes fixed or rebuilt from Charley and they only get 18 months to stay there.
tx weather

i agree! the thrill for me is to try to forcast the storms movement. and yes i have been through several hurricanes the worst a high cat5
Hey Raysfan! Long time..... yes, I know what you mean. Simply because one has insurance, because an organization like FEMA exists, that doesn't put it all back together again. That's why one of the previous statements chapped my hide and caused me to [calmly] ask for a redress of the statment. Yes, have know those personally who lost homes. Lost businesses. Lost incomes and, tragically, lost lives. They were as prepared as they could be given their geography and finances.
Starting to lose faith in remenants of TD10 at this point. It just can't hold its convection.

And the swirl near Honduras doesn't appear very impressive as of now.

Overall, the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico is unusually quiet for this supposed record year.

But, I don't think this is any type of trend. I believe we will get back to the VERY active season we were experiencing back in July. Problem is, the water is like a jacuzzi now and anything significant will become a formidable hurricane if it enters this area under favorable conditions.
*known (homage to Alec)
216. JeffM
Not looking for mass detruction...just wind related damages such as shingles blown off, fences blown down, misc. exterior damages, pool cages destroyed. Stuff to generate claims....not devastation!

Back to the tropics....thats what we are all here for.
Exactly wabbit, for example imagine the excitement in a College AMS club when on the very night of the monthly meeting Gilbert hit 888mb. The people there were all excited, but hoped it would weaken and not hurt anybody at that strength. But just to think that your seeing one of histories great hurricanes is amazing. The miracle is that the 2 most dangerous hurricanes of the last 30 years (Gilbert and Allen) manaaged to avoid making direct landfall at 175+. Though allen only did that by stalling and weakneing, then going inland. Same with mitch.
hey there hurricanecrab usually at work this time. My sister lives in Sebastian Inlet and lost her home to Jeanne. She got hers fixed fast but her neighbor is still living in a FEMA trailer. I lost work for 10 days in Tampa from her due to no power, no work no. Thank god had money in saving to help my family through this. Not just mine but my sister to.
Thank you JeffM. I understand.

Check out this link for detailed tropical/caribbean outlook.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/wxdisc11.txt
whitewabit-I was curious as to which Category 5 hurricane you have experienced. Camille and Andrew have been the only Category 5 hurricanes to hit the US coast in 36 years. How far was your location from the landfall of the Hurricane?

I hope you weren't too close, Camille completely obliterated certain areas, as did Andrew.

This year I think we will have the oppurtunity to study another Category 5 storm. If July can spawn storms that are right at the 155 mph threshhold, I think we are in for something quite larger by the end of this season.
Raysfan - Grand Cayman is still not put back together after Ivan. We live on one of the Sister Islands and didn't suffer NEAR the damage they did. There were families that were flown over here, in fact our population DOUBLED after Ivan from refugees from Grand Cayman. I remember seeing people come off the jet in soaking wet clothing..... little kids that had the long-yard stare. Terrible. The economic impact was great, but the shock to the culture and our sense of national strength was immeasurable.
cfl weather
i went through camille - the eye wall passed over for approx 30 mins pass christian was 16 miles due west, was within a mile of the coast
Stormjunkie the reason I was where I was is because we had already moved......180 miles inland to my home town in central NC. Hind sight is 20/20...shoulda stayed at the coast where wind is the worst threat. Not near the trees etc....
Wow wabbit, you went throught the real 5 not the barley kinda maybe 5 that was Andrew(still a horrible hurricane, just not in Camille's league)
This is why I don't understand where some people are coming from on here. You just don't want these things coming anywhere near you. NO matter what you want to see or feel. Charley was the first time that I was scared because it was suppose to hit here and that is something I never would want anybody to feel that. they were having him come up the bay here and that would have brought it right to my house. I am about 10 miles in from there. HC which one is the worst you have been through?
Ivan was bad..... we were in a cave.... eye was 50-60 miles from us and all our docks and many houses on the south side of the island torn up.

Been through Lili, but it was only a cat 1 Raysfan.

What I remember most about Ivan was the dead certainty (when it was on a direct course for us) that our house was most likely a gonner. We had planned to go shopping that weekend, and after the storm we thought "we don't need anything. We still have a house." It's amazing when you have to look at all your stuff and decide what's important. I thought all our things were important, but they weren't. Of the non-hurricane supplies that went up into our cave with us was: wedding album, pictures, my bride's grandmother's plates, memorobilia from my Daddy, a Bible, and the Handbook of Chemistry and Physics.
hurricanecrab

why the handbook
I've probably said this before (I'm of that age ha) but I was shocked after Ivan when we unpacking our supplies and I found several packets of vegetable seeds. I didn't recall putting them in, nor did my wife, but they were a testament to our mindset. Subconsciously, I guess, I thought we were going to rebuild from scratch.
Wabit - the Handbook of C&P has been with me since college, many moons ago. It has SO much knowledge and formulae in it... it's the single most useful book I've ever owned and can't imagine not having its resources at hand.
That is what I thought when I was trying to secure things from my home. before hand everything is important but when it comes down to you it is only the most keepsake things that you realize is all you need and want. Everything else does not count. We were going to leave Tampa ( I have 3 kid at the time 17,16,7) and go south but then we just went a little north away from the bay. Thank God. All I could think about was just having my family SAFE.
I bet everyone who has gone through a bad hurricane had some sort of talisman..... some object that gave us comfort. How about you Raysfan and Wabit? Was there something? JeffM? Pirate? CFL? WX?
I guess we are lucky we have places to go. How was it in the cave?
Both my parents are gone so the pictures of them and my kids my wedding album and a few collectable peices that were my mothers went with us.
With Frances, in Florida, Where was there to go? Unless you got lucky and left 5 days in advance. That one covered the whole state.
hurricanecrab

mine wasn't a object - i called my MOM and told her i loved her
we know have the thought that we all stay together as a family whenever something happens like this. If we know that it is coming this way we go to a family members home that is away from the water and pull togther. It will get a little cramped but we will be togeher. As I had no home phone for 3 weeks thank god for nextel and sprint they were the only way that I could communicate with the family when there was no phones.
The cave is absolutely safe. I don't doubt a nuclear warhead (GOD FORBID!) nearby would still see us safe with 20+ feet of rock over our heads and 80+ feet below. The down side is lots of bats, which get upset when their home is invaded and fly about. They settle down when the winds come. Guano. Great fertilizer and fuel, but inherently microbial and full of bacteria. I hung a tarp over the cookstove so they wouldn't 'season' our food. When the high winds came several rats climbed into the cave and slunk back in the far recesses of the cave. Soldier crabs crawled in as well as land crabs (hurricane crabs!). At it's closest point, several large roaches and more rats joined us. It was all good. They don't care for our company any more than we do theirs. We slept in the mouth of the cave on an inflatable matress and woke up late. I cooked "panbread pizza" on the Coleman stove. I wouldn't call the setting romantic. ha
Is that where alot of people on the island go?
Well I've ridden out many hurricanes since Fran but none were nearly as scary as Fran...we figured we were far enough inland it wouldn't be that bad...It all happened so fast we just had time to grab the kids from bed and leave....it was weird...it was blowing about 15-20 and drizzling and within an hour the winds were up to 70 and the first tree had hit our house...crazy... Living on the coast unless it's a STRONG 3 or higher I'll stay at home... not nearly as much damage as inland..just like with Floyd... As far as comfort as long as my kids are with me I'm good...
I can't believe that this site has drawn out these insurance adjusters that we've heard from the last couple of days. It's one thing to hear from a 14 year old that wants to experience the rush of a cat 5 storm, but you adults wishing on these storms to hit are far worse. You need the business....give me a break. These storms are going or not going to hit according to nature's whim. You insurance adjusters turn my stomach. I don't think orthropedic surgeons sit there hoping that someone smashes some bones because they need the business. Even an auto collision shop owner does not wish for people to smash up their cars. These things happen. Both the surgeon and the body shop man gets business. You'll get your business too. Maybe you won't have as good a year as last year, but you'll survive. Who knows, maybe you'll get lucky and you'll have a better year this year....but whatever will be will be. Don't wish them on though...it's offensive to many of us. You probably had a nice vacation last year while many of the victims of last year's storms were dealing with the aftermath. The few of you vultures that have shown up here are a disgrace. I'd like to hear from an insurance adjuster with a little bit more humanity. I know you're out there.
Shera - good point. I have family in Mobile area and they were in gridlock for most of a day just to get a little ways away. I forget such things being down here on a chunka rock with 1500 people. I guess it's no easier for you to flee than it is us.

Raysfan - there were those that left Tampa and went to Punta Gorda for safety. that's one of the things I learned during Ivan. Make your stand. Make it well. There were those here that went to Grand Cayman to escape the storm and got hit. some left GC for Cancun and got hit.
ha CosmicEvents -- now THAT's exactly what I was biting back and trying not to say. Well stated.
Raysfan - no most on the island go to manmade shelters. Very few - less than 10% - go to caves.
Charley taight me a lesson just because they say a storm might hit you you think that you will go the oppposite way, he proved there is no place like home.
lol Raysfan. Know what you mean. Like the NASCAR thing, right? If a car is spinning in front of you, aim for it - it'll be gone by the time you get there. I never felt so safe as when Emily was on a direct course for us. I knew that wouldn't last.
cosmicevents

nOW THATS WHAT I'M TAKING ABOUT. VERY GOOD COMMENT
Good point cosmic
I cant stand it no longer..On this I post..The adjusters who want money from your gloom and doom got it..WAY BEFORE YOU GOT ROOFS....look at the blue tarps from Mobile to Miami..and you see WHY..the adjusters got YOU money...you do without fighting errors THEY made for a fast buck...SO SAD
Your*(for alec)
Hey rocket ...... good timing
I hope that this season's storm stay way out to sea this year and stay clear from any land. You know that it is just not the states that were hit last year by these storms that are dealing with the High Insurances it is all over, my family in Illinois there rates also went up.
252. JeffM
Sorry outrocket...why is it the adjusters fault that these people do not have roofs yet? The backup on roofs is/was due to the extream demand and contractors themselves. I inspected hundreds of homes and held insureds hands through the process so don't put adjusters in the same category as public adjusters, dishonest contractors, etc.
253. JeffM
PS. I would really like to see Florida NOT GET any storms this year. They had enough last year!
JEFFM

HOW MANY HANDS DID THE ADJUSTERS HOLD
hey rocket.
Too late,you said it yourself "MONEY"..then why do you need more storms DO YOUR JOB and follow through for those you say you held hands with...or your hand holding was just a LIE..get point???
I SUSPECT THAT OUR DISCONTENT OVER ADJUSTERS AS A WHOLE IS BECAUSE MOST OF US HAVE HAD A INSURANCE CLAIM AND BELIEVE WE WENT TREATED FAIRLY.....

COMENTS
258. WSI
Well worded Cosmic. Wishing harm on others for self-benefit and profit is plain stupid and insensitive. Its not a problem that whoever is in the business profits from natural disasters. That is necessary. Insurance, contractors, doctors etc. However, WANTING bad things to happen. WISHING for it. That is just plain sick.
My sister in law was still waiting for the insurance company to settle with her up till 2 months ago. Had blue tarps on her roof with wild mushrooms and mold grow in her house from Jeanne and they jsut now are getting someone to work on her home. She was on Duty for Charley,Jeanne and Frances as she is a COP for the City of Tampa, and had no choice but to be away from her home.
I say pay the claims first and the adjusters LAST..no adjuster gets PAID untill claim is settled...then maybe we wont be as LIED to as much.
I just want it to rain in Tampa to take this 106 outside.
Sorry about that guys but it is hot here.
collateral damage as in dead people comes with any natural disaster. So to want to witness a storm make landfall carries itself that risk.

whitewabit .. " those that are saying that they would like to ride out a hurricane haven't been through one"
that it wrong. Myself and Im sure others have been thru many. Its sorta like a drug, you want more and more.

Theres not much more to say. You have those that like to witness a storm and see what kind of damage they do and then rate how powerful they are.
LAST POST SHOLD READ

WEREN'T TREATED FAIRLY
LOL.....now this is what was needed...to get some people on here that enjoy discussing the weather and learning about these monster storms that also respect what these storms do to people...not a bunch of thrill seekers who want to see how much damage a storm can do....Great post cosmic and others who seem to be of right mind....;-)
i was lucky no damage to my home just got the power outageat home for 24 hours due to I live by a Fire Dept. that is the worst that I have had done. I am Sorry for all wholost more wether it was a little or everything.
The natives are restless....full moon tonight....
;)
WHILLWIND

WHAT I AM SAYING IS THAT THE CAT3 BEARING DOWN ON YOU MAY BE A CAT4 SOMETHING YOU MIGHT NOW WANT TO BE IN

THEN THERE IS THE DISTANCE FORM THE EYE SOMEONE WITHIN 10 MILES OF THE EYE WOULD HAVE A MUCH DIFFERNT VIEW THEN ONE 50 MILES OUT

HOW CLOSE WERE YOU TO THOSE HURRICANES
Altogether... we shall howl at the moon and burn the adjusters in a pire! (justkidding)
QUEENOFTHEBEACH

NO STORMS
and what about some people who cant get insurance no matter what they do. What about there losses.
pyre* (for Alec)
no need to yell, Im right here...

Not to sure how far away I was from Jeanne or Frances, but est. about 60-70 from eye. But it was a wide eye. Yes, I was on the south side and yes I was far away. Winds est 80mph, higher gusts.
phone call ...... was gone for a bit BUT


LIGHT THE TORCHES!
ahhhwoooooooooooooooooooo..........

I feel better now.
if you look here

Link

the eye wall touched where I am. So pretty close Id say...

wabit... referring to US as the natives. Lots of heat and emotion!
that eyewall was close enough I say you were HIT.
I have seen some major storms..camille 1969(eye passed 45 miles west saw NE quad). Frederic 1979 (punched eye from N to south) terror all you can say..Ivan 2004 eye passed 20 miles south of me..NE to N quad and eyewall brushing..80mph wind few higher gust...All left memories,all taught lessons...seen many smaller ones that have done damage..all are dangerous and to want one is sick. Now if you chase for research to make us safer you are needed...if you chase for the thrill you are not...sorry but thats MHO...lol
What was Frances eye at one time came staight thru my back ward but was lucky she was VERY weak by then. But Jedkins got worse then me being in Pineles County near the beach.
Lighter note: HurricaneCrab's delicious panbread pizza recipe can be found on my blog.... might have to create a hurricane cookbook.
backyard sorry
VERY impressive wave coming off the coast of Africa. Just thought I would point it out.
One thing I remember about the eye -- all kinds of small birds such as bananaquits were thick suddenly in our lower ground bushes and ... up in the air..... HUNDREDS of Man-o-wars (Frigate birds) and Tropicbirds circling within the eye. They seemed to go with the eye. Always wondered if they ended up in Cuba.
The huge thunderstorms that were over Western Africa just a few days ago are now over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Some of the models were turning this into a depression, and it looks like they may be right. A circulation is somewhat present, if this storm can quickly get a lower level circulation going (which I think it has about an 80% chance of happening) it will be the next depression.

Shear values aren't terribly high, and continue to look more favorable further west of this wave. This wave doesn't look like it will be dealing with the Saharan dust that plagued so many other waves before it. The sea surface temp in the area surrounding this wave support development, but again further west it gets alot warmer which will support even more development. This is quite a large wave with alot of moisture surrounding it. So, more often than not, this enviornment is going to support tropical development.

Remenants of TD10 is showing alot of sparse convection, but not with any regularity, or symmetry.

Will update soon.
Let me guess.... FSU supermodel has it as a Cat-5 in 3 days.... ;)
queen where are you at?
haha thanks Shera.... it's better than a can o' beans..... Punkasshans - yes that wave looks good for formation. Down low like that is just the sort of thing I watch closely. Cape Verde and all that.
Near evankisseloff's world.....
Flagler Beach.
CFL - yes good observations.... if I'm reading this right, it looks to me like the steering layer supports a movement toward us (Caymans) and then toward Texas rather than what has taken place in the past weeks. Or am I misreading this?
glad this blog is back to normal. i had to leave this one for awhile and go to a cival on to much bickering (being nice) going on. Hope that it stays this way and we can get the rest back here. We may not all like what each other has to say but we get through it like adults. Thanks
NO namecalling... a little venting of frustration perhaps, but no ego war.
NICE
Sorta like....... LIFE ..... eh, Raysfan?
Not in 3 days, but then again you never know, this is 2005.

For a cat 5 to be born and survive, the enviornment has to be close to perfect as far as tropical development goes. To sustain a storm of that magnitude requires HUGE amounts of energy.

I can't say for sure that the enviornment won't support a cat 5, but I wouldn't expect one the way it looks right now. But, if this continues West toward the Gulf of Mexico or Bahamas, a cat 5 can't completely be ruled out if everything plays into its favor.
IF YOU LOOK AT 10 TODAY THERE DOES SEEM TO CYCLONIC ROTATION AND SEEMS TO BE FIRING UP THIS AFTERNOON 65.4W/21N
Flagler Beach is a pretty area.....near St. Augustine....A1A love that whole area....

Yea that wave that just came off Africa looks to have potential....one to keep an eye on...

A hurricane cookbook is a really good idea...When you are without power for several days you have to get creative...something we ought to look in to...I'm sure theres some interesting ways of preparing food out there....
wabit.... caps lock stuck on? Looks like you're shouting.
what is the percentage on these models being right this far out? And has anyone have any thoughts or know what they are saying for the Bermuda High this year? Hopefully different then the last.
If you want to be angry at some one be angry at ourselves for not making affordable buildings that can withstand these storms that we know are coming. Don't kid yourself, as a human race we could do this if we really cared about each other. Same with earthquakes tornados floods. We could have built the US better if we cared. But the fat pigs just want to get fatter. And I think some of you may be the fat pigs that profit off of relastate and construction and laws concerning building codes.

They will come no matter what we do or wish.

When the do I WANT to see them.
SHOULD BE 64.5W/21N
101 spam recipes for when the power's gone... think of the potential sales in "hurricane alley"
sorry queen i was not
didn't think so...
hey hurricane crab.
Understand StormJunkie. I don't think most of the rugged comments were pointed at you nor whirlwind. Ya wanna be a thrillseeker, what the hell, most of us were in some way or another at some time. NO worries.
very pronounced spin at 83 degrees...looks like it will miss the land area maybe skim the yucatan before moving into the bay of campeche...this is something everyone should watch especially now....also watch 10 its not over it will be back...
I think that the old td 10 is done but...... not ruling it out tis 2005 the year of what should be the IMPOSSIBLE.
I'm here Raysfan..... you think it's safe for me to extinguish my 'mob' torch now? ha
hurricanecrab-its a little difficult to know right now what the steering currents will do to this wave. I see 4 scenarios coming about if this wave survives.

1.Ivan-like track through the south Caribbean Sea then north up into the Gulf like you said.

2.Straight run west, then north of Puerto Rico then WNW as it nears the Bahamas putting it near east coast of Florida. Not sure if there will be a NW or N turn once the Bahamas, much like Irene.

3.Turning north into the Atlantic, far east of Bermuda.

4.Enter south Caribbean sea like Ivan, then turn north over Cuba to enter the Gulf of Mexico or maybe even western atlantic near florida
sorry h.c. ment to say yes about your comment on life
you might want to keep that torch lit for a little while longer. LOL
lol with raysfan
Stormtop - what do you mean when you say "at 83 degrees"... not a challenge just a question. I don't see anything there
things might start to get deep again soon
Stormtop is talking about a mid-level low pressure that the NHC has been talking about as well. It is a nice spin, but does not have the convection and hasnt reached the surface yet. However, any spin the tropics needs to be watched. It does not look promising at the moment, but may be in the future if it reaches the gulf like stormtop seems to think.
hurricanecrab-take a little better look, there is definately a circulation in that area.

It's moving genereally NNW, something to really keep an eye on, those Gulf waters are frighteningly warm.
the former TD10 does look a lot nicer at the moment, and a slight spin can be seen again. However, it only has a day and a half or so to get itself together, get a low and blow up before it will be sheared apart again. Odds are low.
okay Stormtop and CFL I understand now.... I'm used to you all expressing locations in terms of longitude & lattitude ..... learning, always learning thanks
And take a close look at the shear values for the Gulf of Mexico, and the forecasted shear values. Not good news for us if anything tropical enters that area.
Raysfan - I always keep the hip waders handy. Never know *L
Sea surface temperatures and TCHP look alarmingly favorable right around us down here..... on this tiny tiny little rock.... alone .. ~whine~
So, we have three areas to watch. Alot of great information is thrown about here, keep it coming.
Could start getting very dicey now. better get a few more blogs going before we over load this one.
Shera you still here? Better get than cookbook fired up. No potted meat delicacies please. Now there's an oxymoron. If it's meat, why's it gray?
i see the spin at 83 question- why isn't there more convection the water is very warm there
Still here ....working on a batch of beef jerky soup...
i will have to go to shera blog and get your recipe h.c.. always like to try new things.
I see that spin Storm is talking about. Also the monster wave just now coming off the African coast. its on the water and its STILL a dark red...not blue..wow
whitewabit-I see what your saying, and my best guess is that it hasn't had enough time. Everything looks right for development if it can establish a low level circulation, it at least has a mid-level circulation RIGHT NOW.
I've got a recipe for "Shrimp Lili" created during Hurricane Lili, but I didn't post it on Shera's blog because it's a bit too frilly for 'survival cooking'. It's basically a clean-out-the-fridge stir-fry with shrimp

sorry all I know this tain't weather
h.c always keep a nice ham in the deep freeze for hurricane season fast to defrost and fast to cook in a short time
Send it HC.... the fridge clean-out period is crucial. Need before during and after meals....
'em, sorry - back to weather.
something that i watched on the weather channel from a Andrew survivor. But she kept a Turkey. Perfer ham myself.
What about enchiladas on the grill? Made those a few times after Jeanne and Frances.
but it is a survival kit for THE WEATHER
Off to home depot for plywood and tarps.... (jk)
You all keep it civil here...and have a great (safe) weekend.
CFL you have that posted on Shera blog?
you to shera talk to you later have a good weekend guess you won't be on this weekend?
Hey...ANYONE with hurricane recipes....send them to me. (Camping recipes work too)
Thanks all.
Off and on.... have out of town plans.
SQOTB - OUT! (for Alec)
good thought Raysfan! CFL.... how in the WORLD do ya cook enchiladas on the grill? WAIT! We'll call 'em "ITCZ enchiladas", thereby satisfying the weather segue... tell us more
bye Shera!
bye shera have a good one from me and ALEC
Its easy enough, prepare your meat mix in a pan (I prefer chicken, sour cream, and enchilada sauce as a simple yet delicious mix). Assemble enchiladas as desired. Put in baking pan. Cover with sauce and cheese, put foil on the top, and throw it on the grill for 20-30 minutes.

Only requires 1 baking pan, and 1 sautee pan. Easy to make, and delicious.
hurricanecrab

you can put out that mob tourch things have calmed down now our thoughts have turned to food
food what kind
here is a hurricane helpful hint if not noted when your power goes out and you have 1)a generator 2)a well you can always hook your well up to your generator through your breaker box.
CFL - sounds good! Will have to try that! After storms down here we walk the beaches and pick up conch and lobster. Yum! The conch can live for a few days insulated in their little water bladder, but ya gotta get to the lobster QUICKLY>
lol Wabit - nothing placates a mob like good home cookin' ooooWEE! dat good
to far from the beach for that for me they would all be gone before i got there. Will have to deal with the Ham and Enchiladas.
There really is nothing better than a Florida lobster. Yeah Maine lobsters have alot of meat, but Florida lobster is much more satisfying. Also, they are rather easy to attain if you do any diving.
and with the Red Tide here killed off anything that was out there and wouldn't want to eat what lived. We have a dead zone here nothing living
CFL - you're talking about Spiny Lobsters right (hereafter called Scatterometric lobsters to keep the weather thang going). YEs, I agree, easy to get, especially at night when they're out feeding.... I never take females.... there's ALWAYS enough males in nature to go around. My opinion. *L
Any updates on former TD 10? I am assuming it is finshed?
Thanks...... (finally Florida gets a break!)
This blog isnt for food

thank you
Yeah I leave the females. No point to taking them with tons of males to be had.

If we accidently take a female, we just throw her back once we get on deck.
Raysfan - were even the fish killed off? Sounds bad. Biblically bad.
hurricanecrab

i can't swim, due to back, i would have to wait on the beach and see if i could trade you something for one or two
Punk - don't you think the spin at 83 looks like a pizza? ha ha just kidding ........ I'll stop now; thanks for kicking me back into play
hey ive never tried lobster is it good
Former TD10 is still very much alive. There is alot of convection in the area surrounding it, but it can't get organized whatsoever. Some models are now pushing it into the Gulf in the coming days, which could make things interesting if it can hold together until then.
punk

if you would read some of the previos posts you could have seen where this blog has been all day

crab get out that mob tourch again
People, i have nothing against you all having a different blog about food thats good for a weather situation. . HOWEVER, it isnt good in this blog. This blog is about tropical systems. Lets stick to that topic. I am sure Dr. Masters would want that too.
LMAO Wabit!
yes the fish to we have what they are calling the dead zone they are saying that the waters in the gulf are making it alot worse because it is so hot the bottom of the Gulf here is littered and the Logger Head turtles are coming on shore dead or almost there.
told you don't put out the torch yet. Better get a couple of more.
me g'wan to Shera's blog to post a recipe.

Punk - the conn is yours.

cheers
this is a weather blog but right now there is no weather we can we can put our hands on only remains of ten and storm off african coast which is weeks away
I think Dr. Master's would enjoy are survival tips, since there is not much going on. Right guys and girls.
Raysfan - that sounded dangerously close to WEATHER. ha see ya later ..... off to Shera's
I pass the torch(es) to you Raysfan. Light 'em in good health
okay crab will check out the new recipe.
Thanks I will hold them proud till you come back will light one up for Alec to
punk

your thoughts on todays weather and outlook for tomarrow
At least we are all getting along punk isn't that what everyone wanted?
I want to know when it is going to rain in Florida? weather men keep saying 30% , 30%
that is the only real weather I can talk about can't go outside because it feels like 106. I WANT RAIN!!!!!!!!
whitewabit where are you? Florida?
jeff just updated his blog
Hot it H.C.

NOt much of a shrimp person but the family is.
I agree, we are getting along. I am just saying it because Dr. Masters said in a blog a few weeks ago that he didnt want people writing about stuff that wasnt on the topic in this board. I believe he said this could be taken away if it is overloading the system with "useless" talk.

I have nothing against it, except that I like to see weather topics on here when I read it for 5 mins every hour at work.

And as for what I think. TD10 is basically dead but just trying to stick around for the weekend. The wave at 83 degrees is weak, wont be strong enough to develop unless it can get over the Yucatan and into the gulf. And the new wave off the African coast. . its too soon to make any judgements on it. Waves come off the coast and can look REALLY impressive, but die out the next day. If it still looks good tomorrow, we might have a new depression soon.
ray i live in midwest family and friends aound springhill

i get to follow all of mothernature's furry tornado's floods blizzards and hot weather heat index today 105
hey srimp is good especially when its grilled yummy
More convection around TD10 and earlier than last night.

PIEMANLike I said you started this "drivel" very early this morning.
punk

do you think it will come from the african coast or carribean
Hiya :)
Does anyone think, from the information forscasted, that the remnants of TD-10 will pass through the Northern Bahamas (eg. Nassau) ? According to the Weather Channel, we had wind gusts up to 30mph today already :(
i use to live in the suburds of Chicago and lived thru the Tornandos there.
hey mybahamas do they not say anyting there about it?? Or are they blowing it off to?
stormjunkie

about 10 visible shows it building but looks like shear has started to affect the western edge
I called the Met Office and they are apparently going to make announcements. I think they found out about Accuweather's 78mph wind gusts claims on a day they are calling for variable winds :)
mybahamas

are those winds being caused buy the large high pressure over alabama i don't see anything in the caribean thats has those types of winds now
huh, thought that they would be watching it better since it is so close to you.
I tried to find that out myself; but all I could find was that they were coming out of the ENE. I am still trying to figure out if the Northern Bahamas has to worry about the remnants of TD-10. I thought the track would be through the southeastern Bahamas.
Stormtop are you on or someone with more knows about these things to answer the questions about the Bahamaa?
Jedkins are you here?
Dr.Masters,

I would like to apologize to you if we got off the subject of TROPIC TALK. SHowing that there are some of us here that can get along. And I thought the tips were good.
I know that you said something awhile ago about this.
No one, rays :(
Ah well :)
I think everyone went to the other blog you might want to try Alec's blog for a btter answer to your question. hope that helps
that's where i go for my answers
Thanks :)
your welcome, will see you there