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TD 10 dies, Irene moving out, more African dust

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:55 PM GMT on August 14, 2005

Irene
Irene has begun its turn, and is now moving out to sea on a NNE course. Recent satellite images show a decrease in convective clouds over her, and I expect the 2pm EDT Hurricane Hunter mission will find a weaker storm. Irene still has a chance to make it to hurricane status over the next day or so, but that would be a surprise.

TD 10
TD 10 got ripped apart by winds from a big trough that penetrated unusually far south for this time of year. The current wind shear forecast shows relatively high shear hanging around the vicinity of TD 10's remains, so regeneration of this system is unlikely over the next few days.

African Dust
Another big area of Saharan dust is moving off of the coast of Africa today between latitiudes 12N and 17N, and has pushed as far west as the Cape Verde Islands. The associated dry air will cause problems later in the week for any tropical storms that try to develop in the mid-Atlantic.

It looks like a quiet beginning of the week in the tropics!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm glad they are finally quiet....now i'm going to get on another hobby for a while''''see you guys and gals later this year maybe!!
where the heck does all this African Dust come from? Why is it so active this year, compared to last year?
because the trade winds have increased...thw winds are blowing 25 mph and higher..this is the main reason for the africand dust..its getting into the atmosphere and it is ringing all the moisture out of these systems that are trying to form now...if you remember last week i said you would not get a storm off the african coast until after august 21 when the trade winds slacken up...at least on e prediction i will be right on..but after the 21st you will see increased tropical activity ...the dust is the reason i revised my prediction down to 16 named storms..if the dust wasnt there this would of definitely been a record breaking season...you just cant forecast this dust at the beginning of the season...there is no way of telling if the dust will be as strong as it is now...
2:30pm satellite shows IRENE has intensified to HURRICANE strength.....we now have Hurricane IRENE....looking at the loop, it has now formed an eye......
The NHC will have as a Hurricane at 5pm....maybe some larger waves may impact the northeast...but nothing else........but it is nice to see on satellite....
I don't see why the NHC, and Dr. Gray forecasted so many more named storms. The African dust was going strong then, and still is now. Something that shouldn't be happening at all in a supposed record breaking season.
I would imagine the abnormally high amount of dust is also partially caused by the bad drough going on in northern Africa.

Irene is certainly looking more like a minimal hurricane. The recon recently found the pressure to be 992 mb.
No stormtop the african dust did NOT affect this one there is no effect in that region and the only reson for the weakening is the upper trough.If you disagree with the NHC which are the experts but let me tell you all that you may have heard otherwise but african dust is not I reapeat NOT affecting this storm it is an upper trough that the NHC has already sated in it's previous forecasts that if it survies the trough it will strengthen.But because it has not they have issued the final adisory on the TD but will watch it's remnants closey which could redevlop after it passes through the trough.Now you all know why it has weakened.
well carbo i dont think they thought it would be this strong..thats something you really cant predict..but you are right it would have gave us a record breaking season..
hey is it just me or does irene show a eye on the visiable
This is exactly why it has weakened the upper trough has little or no clouds with it so is not visible and the NHC clearly stated that it may weaken and may not survive the upper trough it is not because of african dust,the african dust is gone....
It is still accuring closer to the coast but is continuing to relax and will likely be completely gone in a couple weeks or so the african dust no longer is present this far out I thought I would tell y'all the truth.
jed all the storms that came off the african coast except emily had problems getting it together...when emily came off the dust was not nearly as strong as it is now...the moisture content over african right now is nill because this dust has just about drained the atmosphere..
"It looks like a quiet beginning of the week in the tropics!"


Thanks for the calming forcast. I am suffering from the fact that I moved in just in time for Charlie last year. We were evac'd 4 times total if you count the 4 Hrs it was up for Ivan in Hillsborough Co.

We're having some T'Storms @ the moment w/ about 1500 lightning strikes but about 10 drops of rain. I'm beginning to think the 100+ degree water fead by Big Bend Power Plant steers the local stors around us.

Thanks again
aacuvue weather wrote a post maybe you missed it why the storms coming off the african coast were doing nothing because of the dust which was draining all the moisture out of them..they need to post that on here again for everyone can understand whats happening..jed there will be no action this week either ..the dust will not slack off until after aug 21...you are also right about the trough it was another big factor what wekened the depression...
Stormtop I thought you have been a forecaster for a long time with expeirience?If that were true then you would know that this africn dust is not what has weakened this storm, unless you just never read the NHC discussion and didn't know there was a trough there then you are just plain wrong.The african dust is only a factor now near the coast and will continue to relax back to the coast line and this storm has ahad NO influnence from dust because it is simply not there.Aperrently the noaa knew something y'all didn't...They knew the dust would relax now the only thing that might hamper devlopment is persistent shear that is still accuring across the atlantic basin but if that relaxes they will likely be close to the amount of storms because the african dust is continuing to relax and may be completely gone by the end of the mnth.
Yes it will relax but it hasn't affected this storm.I didn't read your last post STORMTOP forget about what I said there I got a little carried away there but as it relaxes storms will form in that region more anyway.Also the most storms on average occurs in september so as this dust continues to die it will be heading in to the time of year where that region is most active also,it is also allowing waters to warm so I see no reson why the amount of storms will be significaly less.
jed the whole coast of africa is under dust storms ..the trade winds are blowing 25mph and higher..im not saying you are wrong i know what a strong trough can do to a weak depression but the dust is still there and will be until aug 21...i think the nhc would back me up thats why they are calling for little activity this week...read JEFF MASTERS COMMENTS he clearly talks about the dust that is over the african coast..scroll down to the previous post..
African Dust
Another big area of Saharan dust is moving off of the coast of Africa today between latitiudes 12N and 17N, and has pushed as far west as the Cape Verde Islands. The associated dry air will cause problems later in the week for any tropical storms that try to develop in the mid-Atlantic.

It looks like a quiet beginning of the week in the tropics!

Jeff Masters
Yes and most storms occur in september and like I said it will allow the water to be warmer because little activity has occured this far out so far.And the NHC is going to watch the remnant low after it passes through the trough so it could redevelop once it moves back into favorable conditions.
yes jed i certainly agree with you about regeneration..it is very possible..
I will not be surprised but that doesn't really make a big change in the amount of storms because the water will continue to warm and as we go into the most active part of the season and the dust is relaxed there will likely be many storms forming but if we had alot coming off the coast already it would cool the waters making way for the active month of the season with cooler waters,but when waters are even warmer do to less activity in august it will help with storm activity in september.It is hard to say if we will have less tor not I am thinking if we will it will be becase of shear because it has been stronger in august tan in july but if it relaxes soon and the african dust begins to die the tropics will likely become VERY active.
Sorry I got a little carried away erlier lol I got a little crazy there....
i still wish they would post something on the big bermuda high and what caused it to split in 2 pieces for irene would have and ally way to move north..i saw nothing in the atmospheric charts i looked at or water vapor loops that would leave me to believe that would happen...they forecast this friday night..i still take my hat off to them because they saw something i missed for sure..i just wish they would take the time to let me know exactly what caused it..i would greatly appreciate it and im sure others would like to know where i went wrong..
JED.. that post sums it all up:
b/c of no cyclones the waters will warm up even more and when the dust subsides, it will be very very active.

When the noaa made predictions they knew about the dust. Also knew that when it dies off, it will be teh PEAK of the season+extra warm waters= record season
Yes that is why I am thinking it might get to the poinnt with like 4 storms at the same time out in the atlantic moving from east to west.
Assuming of course that the dry dusty pattern off Africa doesn't continue through September.
Speaking of 4 possible storms at teh same time...
I remember at the start of the season there were 2 cyclones very close to each other, forget which ones? BUT what would happen if they collided with each other? Would the shear from the storms kill each other before getting too close to one another, or maybe as they got close they would "bounce" off each other and went into a different direction?? This is interesting, anyone know?
Another thing to consider is that atmospheric dust over the water would reflect sun light and thus tend to keep the water somewhat cooler. How much cooler I don't know - it might not even be significant? Anybody know anything about this?
For what it is worth - I once saw two waterspouts collide - the larger one seemed to absorb the smaller and then the larger one dissipated.
31. SEFL
Stormtop, I thought earlier in the week you were talking about the two highs but they were going to bridge. And that was the reason you didn't believe the models nw/n track. I believe the NHC has talked about the storm skirting the bermuda high and going thru the weakness. And they also acknowledge that westward movement of the high might push Irene to the west.

I do not believe they waited til Friday night to say there was a weakness that Irene was going thru. I even believe Dr. Masters updaye about midweek showed the two highs and how the storm was moving between them.
32. SEFL
I stand corrected. It was Steve Gregory's blog that dealt with the issue of the weakness between the two highs.
Recon plane has just found Irene to be a hurricane now with a 991 mb pressure and a 79 kt flight level wind, and since then the satellite looks even more impressive.
Just to add something to the Jed/Stormtop discussion. In a way you are boht right about TD 10. Mostly it did weaken due to trough, but also if you look at the environment around the former TD 10 it still very dry, as most of the tropics have been. So I'd give this one to Jed, but Stormtop's point is also valid. And it looks like I am gonna be wrong and Irene may finally become a hurricane..lol..oh well..
YOU ARE WRONG SELF I JUST WANT AND EXPLANATION WHAT MADE THE BIG HIGH SPLIT IN 2....THAT GAVE THE ALLY WAY FOR IRENE TO MOVE NORTHWARD...I JUST DIDNT SEE ANYTHING ON THE ATMOSPHERIC OR VAPOR LOOP CHARTS THAT WOULDD CAUSE THIS TO HAPPEN...SORRY FOR THE CAPS...
I think we need to give them gloves and put SEFL and STORMTOP in a ring. SEFL keeps pointing out that Stormtop is wrong and then Storm comes back with an uppercut.

You both need to do the next storm prediction and then we will see whos smarter....
It looks like there is some new activity around the center of circulation for TD 10.
What r the chances of TD 10 coming back alive? IS this just another flair up tha twill die out?
Yeah, Jupiter, I noticed that as well. The surface spin is very weak, but it is still there and a new, albeit small, blob of convection is firing on the nw side of the center. This is the kind of thing it will take for this sytem to make it across the trough. Irene was able to survive the very hostile early days because periodically some convection would fire up reasonably close to the center, just enough to keep Irene spinning until it could find a more favorable spot for development. This new blob is a start, but it will take more to keep TD10's remnant spin going.
and what about the area in the caribbean can anything form there?
The chances of td ten coming back alive are not that low remember,the only reson it disapted was the upper trough once it clears that invironment deep convetion could refire and it could easily come back as it heads into a favorable area the NHC after all said they will watch it's remnants very closely.Oh and by the way up to 12 inches of rain have fallen near the east coast of florida with hurriacne like rain rates of 4 to 6 inches per hour widespread.We often get storms with 3 to 4 inch per hour rain rates here and 5 with severe thunderstorms but 6 inches per hour is geeting into rainfall rates that normally only fall in hurricanes!!!!
Got bad ones here (Tampa) but not much. MOre LIghting than anything. How long does a trough usually stick around?
44. WSI
There were two areas of high pressure. There wasn't a "split" of one of them.
It will pass out of the environment soon because it is moving northwest And I think the trough is stationary but troughs aren't like big ridges they are kind of like fronts without an airmass change just a an area of lower pressure and deeper moistur but this one is aloft so it will pass out of the harsh conditions and move into favorable conditions dont know how long it will take but it wont be too long prabable no longer than 24 hours or less.
That is EXACTLY right WSI. Stormtop is not correct in his assesment. SEFl is right in saying there was a WEAKNESS between TWO HIGHS as was noted by Steve. It was clearly visible by most of the models and Steve's graphics.
It will likely take a few days for the TD10 remnant to reach an area where some development could occur.
Jed u don't see anything forming out of the convection in the Caribbean?
Well the storms are producing rain that you will only and I mean only see outiside of a hurricane.....You cant expierience rain rates of 4 to 6 inches an any other part of the country unless a hurricane is effecting that area but even then a hurricanes rain will still be very heavy if it hit new york but significantly less than if it hit fort myers.The cobination of the hurricanes last year and a few days straight of severe thunderstorms in the same place in my area made people actually move!!The thunderstorm produced multiple gustnados as they call em and windgusts up to 70 mph that made some people actually leave because of that combined with the hurricanes here they said I we are moving I had my houses roff blown off last year and flooded and now it got blown off by a thunderstorm.The storm did considerable damage to a home depot knocked down trees and powerlines and knoecked sever roofs off 2 mobile home cumunitys.I think that florida does get more severe thunderstorms in the past several years then I remember I mean the past month there have been so many reporst of severe weather damage and hurricane like rainfall at times it is obvious that the weather pattern are changing and I know that when the hurricane season was more active in the 20s through the 50s florida on average had more storm activity then the 60s through the 90s which had less hurricanes well now huuricanes have been on the increase agian and so has floridas thunderstorms.
No not if the NHC says there isn't.
well weather guy why dont we ask someone from the nhc if the 2highs after they were together split up...see what there explanation is...thats the only way a weakness could of left irene go to the north they split up and left and alley way where she took the opening and turned north..if they would of stuck together there would have been no way the storm goes north because that was a 600mb high...im not here to argue just here to find the facts...
Interesting obervation I have made huh?I found this out by looking at the florida rainfall over the ast 100 years and the hurricane activity over the past 100 years.
Sometimes things happen that we cant see that is what makes these things so unpredictable but in a way its a good thing makes it more challenging lol.
Jed: You guys have all the action up north. Us down in palm beach dont get nothing! Every time I see a storm, like today, by the time it gets down it, its light rain!!???
As if there was some "force field" over this county...
BTW Jed: Did all that happen with todays storm? Just now? The wind and roof's blown down?
So, maybe by tuesday or wednesday, could we have a reborn TD 10? Or maybe a reborn TS Jose?
Whirlwind, you get all the hurricanes though, remember last year, you were very close to the landfall point of both Frances and Jeanne, and you probably got some serious winds.
58. SEFL
Stormtop you are even arguing with yourself. You said earlier in the week, in your assessment, that the two highs would bridge and Irene would be pushed to the west. It wasn't a high that split...it was two highs, one over and near Florida and the bermuda high.

I read what you say and I pay attention to it.
59. Leia
Hi guys (& gals). Someone had posted radar or satellite links to the progress of the traveling dust awhile back. Does anyone here have those links? I have two very curious young children (friends) very interested in learning more about this type of event and in seeing this.

Thanks in advance!
Leia
Tropical Storm IRENE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
CENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15.
IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN 15 KT...BUT SOME OF THAT
APPARENT MOTION MAY BE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN
THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. AS IRENE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS. BY 72
HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS RECURVING IRENE THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG 70W...WHILE THE GFDL
AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST AND BRING IRENE VERY NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 120 HOURS. THE GFS...HOWEVER...QUICKLY DISSIPATES
IRENE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST 48 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS...AND KEEPS THE
RIDGE INTACT AND MOVES THE REMNANTS WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN IRENE'S
CURRENT WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE BERMUDA
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFDN
SOLUTIONS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RATHER WEAK AND
UNIMPRESSIVE AND MAY NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST.

SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 28.5C AND 29C...AND VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 120 HOURS. SO THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE VERY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR THAT IRENE WILL BE NAVIGATING THROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS
...AND THEN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT WHEN THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DROP TO ABOUT 5 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE WARMER GULFSTREAM.

FORECASTER STEWART

this is what im talking about you had one ridge that split apart that allowed the weakness to happen....just read up gents..
I just gave you the facts Stormtop! I am not arguing with you, just stating facts..lol..SEFL is exactly right, I dont know how else to say it. Oh well...
62. WSI
Look at one of Steve's posts. One of the steering maps clearly show two high pressure systems. They were never "one", and they never "split". They were always apart.
Oh yeah Stormtop I see where it says the ridge split apart..LMAO..You really know how to read between the lines..lol..
And just to add something since I live here in Florida. The ridge that was over Florida moved from S.Florida to Georgia/S.Carolina as the week progresses. This was talked about extensively in our local NWS discussions in reference to Irene track.
Leia...

ftp://jwocky.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/eptoms/images/display_aero/Y2005/DISPLAY_AERO.JPG
http://jwocky.gsfc.nasa.gov/aerosols/today_aero.html

...or maybe this one?
STORMTOP....you really need to stop taking yourself so seriously. You did not cause any concern amongst the readers here. Nobody here takes your forcasts seriously. We find your posts amusing in that it's uncanny how someone who has such an inflated opinion of themselves can be so consistently wrong. A monkey throwing darts would have a better track record. Maybe you should take up another obsession, like predicting earthquakes.
No not todays storm though there was MORE severe weather in my county reported by a trained skywar spotter though lol.
Could TD 10 Regenerate by Wednesday?
70. Leia
Thanks Maryesther. That looks like one of them. There was a black and white one that showed it near the Gulf of Mexico too, if I remember correctly.

(dust shows in the aerosol imageries?)
Evan...it's doubtful. But it is possible. You can still hold out hope that it will regenerate and make a beeline for Daytona Beach. Barring that, remember you live in Florida in the summer. Any day can possibly bring a thunderstorm with a tornado that can wreak havoc, destruction, and death.
That I don't want. Tornadoes scare the crap out of me.
is there convection trying to wrap around old td#10 or is the circulation still off to the west of it? Looks like it to me, but I am a rookie.
or forming near the circulation?
lol...
Leia, maybe it was the water vapor loop?
try Steve Gregory's blog for July 31...
I'm a rookie too Ray......but it appears that there is some small flaring up around the center of TD10, with the main thunderstorms still displaced to the South and East. The center is still in a very hostile environment.
just could not tell if it was near the center or if it was away. Still trying to fight like Irene I guess.
thanks,going out for the night everyone have a good evening.
What happened to talking about weather here?
One major difference between TD10 and Irene is that Irene already had a large, well defined circulation as it began encountering hostile conditions. The circulation from TD10 is very small and very weak.
82. Leia
Thanks again, MaryEsther. Will do.

Anyone else notice that the 18z GFDL makes TD10 a 963 mb hurricane in five days following Irene's basic track? It is strange how the GFDL continually tried to dissipate Irene and never predicted it would be 989 mb, yet the same model takes a feeble little swirl that was TD10, keeps it alive through a couple days of hostile conditions, then bombs it to a cat 3.
Hawkeye, the remnants of TD 10 are showing some nice convection also. After the trough moves out of the way--maybe. Looking at the FSU maps though, the 500 mb ridge over the west Atlantic looks like it will have weaknesses in it. So my guess is more likely than not anything from TD will stay out to sea. But it is way to early to be sure. Maybe we'll know more by Wednesday.
StSimons, most models are shooting this disturbance northwestward into the weakness before the Bermuda high can full rebuild, but that isn't a certainty yet. IF this thing can maintain the closed circulation for a couple more days and IF it can track a little more south and west then it could get stuck south of a building ridge which could then turn it west toward the US coast. Those are a couple of big ifs, though. It is just something that needs to be watched like everything else.
A question: How if at all will Irene affect the weather situation i Western Europe now that she is headed our way. As I understand we can get the remnants of hurricanes coasting along the Gulf Stream and then going into our weather system and they can be mean by our standards. Will we see the first late summer storm of tropical origin now?
Question for the good Dr and the fellow blogee's. Am I correct in assume low level winds affect steering and high level winds affect shearing of a tropical system correct? I am trying to fiqure out the models since I looked at them and was about to post my first prediction on TD10 before it was ripped apart. Lastly any ideas on to why the conditions for tropical storms that seemed ripe for many powerful storms has turned so hostile (other than the dust)
Hey orion. Yes you are correct in that assessment. The conditions have turned hostile because an unusually strong trough for this time of year has moved down into the atlantic, Steve eluded to this in his blog. This is what has torn apart TD 10. If this pattern continues anything that moves off of Africa and tries to develop would run into this trough and be ripped apart. Will this continue? Climatology tells us no, especially with the peak of the hurricane season ahead of us.
weatherguy03,

Thanks I got lucky with predicting Dennis and Emily. Because I was reading the models wrong (that and I am finding out more data to shift throught which may be clouding instinctal judgement).
90. WSI
I am no expert, but the size of the storm matters when it comes to steering. If you go here..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

You will see that they have different levels of steering for the kind of storm you have (they base the storm on pressure). A more shallow system may be steered differently than a larger storm (since a taller storm can go up to 50k ft and beyond). On the first level on that site, the steering currents can be as low as 5000ft (850mb) for a really small storm. Now as far as shear, anything that prevents convective clouds from gaining height (shearing the tops off the storms as I have heard it called) will kill the storm or hinder development. There are mid level shear maps and upper level sheap maps on the link I just posted. Logic suggests that a shallow system would be torn apart by mid-level shear more than upper-level shear. Maybe someone with a little more experience than me can explain it better, but that is the way I have some to understand it. If I am wrong, someone slap me and educate me. :)
TD 10 reminds me a lot of Irene. Became something quickly and then dissipated. Could it follow the same pattern and then rebuild into a storm later on? Could be. Will have to watch over the next 2 days and see what happens.


Oh, and for everyone that doubted my forecast for Irene. . look at the track, look at what I predicted. . looks a lot alike. (but thats just me bragging for a few seconds)

Irene as a hurricane. . i didnt expect that. But at this point, its out to sea and gone. Now to watch the former TD10 and see if it gets its act back together. Jose. . .Jose!!!
LMAO @WSI....what are you talking about? you are lost in the fog..
93. WSI
How am I lost? What part of that is off base? Respectfully Stormtop, you are the last person on these blogs that can tell anyone they are lost in a fog.
TD10's remnant circulation actually became more well defined overnight thanks to a few small blobs of convection that fired up. Several 12z models have also shifted sw with the track of this system. The BAMs now take it a little bit north of Puerto Rico. It could get interesting if it can keep a decent circulation and stay farther south, because something just north of PR might continue to get steered toward the wnw.
Yes Hawk, this storm definately is something to keep an eye on. Any circulation in the tropics is something that has to be watched. Irene will always be in my momory as something that was completely dead, no convection. . . but came back to life to be a decent storm. It may not have hit anything, but it shows that it can happen. I wouldnt doubt that the former TD10 stays alive and it is re-instated either tomorrow or the next day. I mean, we cant go more than 4 days without a new storm!
85 degrees has become more concentrated and the shear that was there yesterday looks like it slacked off quite a bit...this is looking good at the moment lots of deep reds...
you never even made it ti first wsi lol..but at least you are trying..i will explain the whole concept when i get back from the dentist....
what up yall
cavity stormtop you get that when you talk bad about people for so long
Stormtop, I noticed that western Caribbean activity as well, but it appears it will move west into land before it can do anything.
first before i go i have to tell you this wsi....the steering in a storm is always different...its what guides a storm where the high may be situated if the sterring currents are weak or if the shear or trough is coming down from the north...its not the pressure wsi..the pressure does not guide a storm a weakness can guide a storm but i will have to say more later...im not laughing at you at least you are trying to learn...you come up with some good analysis sometime i think you are very intelligent and i for one am glad to have you on this board...ill explain more later....
yes hawk i was hoping something would form that would pull it more north...i guess its not in the cards..
thanks jeff ill remember that...
hawk do you see the upper level low to the north of it in the gulf..do you think its possible it could steer this more northward...look at the water vapor loops shows up clearly ...
Irene looks immpresive now and appears to have doubled in size with a huge ball of very deep convetion throughout the whole hurricane.
Watch the remnants of td 10 closely if it redevelops it looks like it would be a storm that florida should watch but too early to tell though.
I do not think it will follow the same path though but I think it could redevelop and this is the system we should be watching most not upper lows the NHC says are unlikely to develop.
108. WSI
I never said pressure guides the system Stormtop. I said that the storm can be guided by the steering currents, based on its size. Usually, the pressure of the storm will have a direct relation to its size. How else do you explain why they give different steering maps for storms with different pressures? I understand that lows, highs, troughs, etc guide a storm. But winds that are at 30,000ft are not going to guide a storm that is at 20,000ft. Maybe I a missing something.
109. WSI
Read the explanation here Stormtop...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/other/dlm_faq.html
Stormtop, it looks like the surface high pressure area will remain across the southeast US for a few more days and that would likely block anything from moving northward. Maybe the disturbance can move into the Bay of Campeche and get stuck, who knows.
Hey guys I was gonna get your opinion on the Carribean "system", I see you guys were talking about it. Looking at the FSU model, run to run, it has been trying to develope this and move it into the Bay of Campeche. Yes Hawk High pressure is actually forecasted to move West into the Gulf by weeks end, so I think if anything does develop down there it would be shunted W or WNW. Any more opinions on this?
I forecast nothing to develop that settles it lol,but no really I dont think there will be any system developing from it.
Seems like y'all may be trying to make somthin out of nothin huh?
I dont see anything coming out of it either, but it sure is stormy down there. Its something to watch for the next 24 hrs, if the t-storms can spin something up quickly it might have a chance. But it is VERY close to land.
THE AREA AT 20 AND 86 IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE LOW TO THE NORTH IN THE GULF..IF THIS CLEARS THE YUCATAN AND GETS IN THE GULF WE WILL HAVE A REAL STORM ON OUR HANDS..THE temps are 90 degrees down there...this area is moving nnw at a pretty good clip...
Down there?85 to 90% of the gulf is at least 90 the yucatan is not the only area.
THATS WHAT IN SAYONG JED THIS DISTURBANCE IS MVING NNW NOT WEST,,,THE LOW TO THE NOTHE IS AFFECTING THE MOVEMENT...THIS WILL BE IN THE GULF VERY SOON...it has water temps 90 degrees are highter...
How is the weather in the Bahamas in Aug.? We are planning on spending next week there.