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Tammy, Stan Jr., Stan, and Stan III--and Vince?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2005

Tammy
The 5:16 pm EDT Hurricane Hunter mission found winds of 51 knots at flight level, supporting Tammy's maximum winds staying at 50 mph. The pressure fell 1 mb to 1002 mb, so Tammy is not strengthening rapidly, nor is she expected to. Tammy is maintaining her strength in the presence of some unusually high wind shear, about 20 - 25 knots. Tammy is poorly organized, and radar animations out of Jacksonville, Florida, show no sign of an eyewall forming, just a mass of disorganized echoes to the northeast of the center. No ships or buoys have actually measured tropical storm-force sustained winds of 40 mph yet. It is likely that Tammy will move onshore tonight as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds in the 50 - 55 mph range, and a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet.

The primary threat from Tammy will be from her rains. Bands of heavy rain continue to pound the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Rainfall amounts as of 4 pm EDT have mainly been in the 1 to 3 inch range along the coast in Georgia and along the South Carolina and northern Florida coasts, with lesser amounts further inland. A few isolated areas have received up to five inches--for example, Brunswick Georgia, and just south of Jacksonville, Florida. Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with isolated amounts of 8 to 10 inches along and to the north of Tammy's path. Flooding problems will be most serious in coastal Georgia, which received 3 - 5 inches of rain this past week, before Tammy came along.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from the Jacksonville radar.

Tammy is being drawn northward by an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will pull Tammy northwestward into Georgia, and perhaps even westward towards Alabama by Friday. A cold front is expected to arrive over the East Coast by Friday, and the remains of Tammy are expected to track up the front, drenching the entire East Coast.

Stan Jr.
A large area of thunderstorms broke off from Stan this morning, and emerged into the Yucatan Channel. Satellite imagery shows upper level outflow has developed to the north and east, along with some low-level spiral banding. There is a circulation center near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, with a limited amount of deep convection to the northeast and east. Wind shear from westerly upper-level winds are pushing this convection away from the center. Observations from the Cancun radar indicate two major spiral bands have formed, one on the southeast side and one on the north side. The overall impression is of a weak sheared system that is not yet a tropical depression strength. Once the center moves further out into ocean, the system has a better chance for intensification. With wind shear of 10 knots over it, I believe this will be a tropical depression by tomorrow as the system tracks north-northeast towards western Florida. If this system were to be named, it would get the new name Vince, and not Stan, since the primary circulation of that storm pushed into the Pacific Ocean this morning. This assumes that the developing disturbance doesn't become a tropical storm first and steal the name Vince, leaving Stan Jr. stuck with the name Wilma.

Regardless of whether or not this system develops into a tropical storm, southwest Florida can expect tropical storm conditions, with rain amounts of 3 - 5 inches and high winds Thursday and Friday. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast needs to be concerned about serious flooding problems from this one-two punch.


Figure 1. BAMM model track for Stan Jr.--the tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

Stan
The death toll from Hurricane Stan now stands at 103, including 50 deaths in El Salvador, 34 in Guatemala, 11 in Nicaragua and eight in Mexico. The remnant circulation from Stan continues to pull moist tropical air from the Pacific Ocean into the disaster areas, where more flooding rains are expected to make the disaster even worse. Stan, who barely made it to Category 1 strength for a few hours, will likely have his name retired, thanks to this unfolding disaster. This would make the Hurricane Season of 2005 the first season to have five names retired (1955, 1995, and 2004 all had four storm names retired).

Stan III?
The remants of Stan appear likely to spin up into a new tropical cyclone that may threaten Baja California later in the week. If both this system and the Stan Jr. system off of the Yucatan do become tropical storms, this would be the first time a dissipated hurricane spawned two new tropical cyclones, one in the Atlantic and one in the Pacific. How many firsts can this season have??

Vince? Wilma?
A tropical disturbance near 9N 40W, 1500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a low level circulation, impressive deep convection, and the beginnings of an upper-level outflow channel to the north. About 10 knots of shear from strong westerly winds is affecting the disturbance, but models indicate that this shear may decrease over the next day or two. The disturbance is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. The early track forecasts are performing poorly--they have the disturbance moving to the northwest, and it is not doing so. However, a more norhtwestery motion is likely by Saturday, thanks to the steering influence of a large upper-level low pressure system at 25N 60W.

The disturbance is pretty far south for development to occur, but this hurricane season has had little regard for what is usual. Thus, the disturbance may form into a tropical depression on Thursday. Development is more likely Friday or Saturday, when the disturbance will be further from the equator and can take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it develop.


Figure 3. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for the mid-Atlantic disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Conditions are expected to be unusually conducive for tropical storm formation throughout the Atlantic for the next 10 days, and it is quite likely we'll make it to the end of the alphabet by mid-October. When that happens, we go Greek--Alpha, Beta, and hopefully not much further into the Greek Alphabet! One positive sign today that the Hurricane Season of 2005 will eventually end--a blizzard warning is up for western Montana.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Barely raining here in Jax now. Let's see what Vince brings!
Those radar estimates are WRONG. We have had over 11" in the past 3 days!
It is not raining harder, and it is not much windier, but it sure is getting darker outside.
The pressure at St Augustine is now 29.62 (1003 mb) with a 23 mph sustained wind out of the north. The central pressure must be a milibar or 2 lower.
In Savannah it's been raining steady for the past 6 or 7 hours. The winds are a little gusty at times with the rain falling diagonally every once in awhile. I'm assuming that we'll have more blustery conditions as/if it moves closer to our west.
We should get the heavy precip shield north of the center from about 5:30 to 8 tonight. Be interesting to see how the sea responds, especially with the wind now blowing more from the east and the barometric pressure droppping.
Holy cow I go to bed and theres just Stan causing trouble, I wake up and theres a Stan, Stan Jnr, Stan III and a Tammy, it sounds like some sort of sequel happening.
Retirement is speculation right now. From what I am gathering on the websites, such as Wikipedia discussion, pages it is assumed that Katrina, Dennis, and Rita will have their names retired. There is a little less speculation for Emily but most see her name being retired.

With Stan's death toll so high it is most likely going to be retired, you're right. However, strange as it may seem, there are a few out there that believe Ophelia will have her name taken off the list. However the further we get from her the more it doesn't seem to be the case. She is hardly memorable in most people's eyes.

What do other people think? Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Stan ... and Opehlia or not Ophelia?
One retirement that I can't believe happened was Gordon in 1994. Killed over 1,100 people in Haiti, and yet not retired. I kind wonder if it was because the people who died were poor and black.
So my excitement here in St. Aug. is over..LOL..That was the wimpiest TS I have ever seen..LOL...But the sun came out, now its raining again and the winds are backing...But the winds never made it above TS force, all east of the center with this one..So thats it....
Dennis, Emily, Katrina and Rita will be retired. NOT Ophelia.
come north to St Simons, it looks like the worst Tammy has to offer will start coming ashore around 5:30 here.
Obsidian...you should see it here on tybee!! I am taking video and i feel like i am in a HURRICANE. Worst rain and wind i have ever seen. Trees going sideways.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.1 N... 81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF TAMMY SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
i hav updated my blog
it will be Dennis, Emily,Rita, Stan, and there is a chance Katrina might get her name retired>? Not Ophelia..only damage estimates of $50 million...

St.Simons..it had nothing to do with race...THe WMO(world meteorological Organization meets in April of the following year and its up to the country most affected to ask to have its name retired..in that case the U.S. didn't have significant enough effects to retire the name and Haiti didn't request it.
the winds extend out 260miles mainly to the east and north of the cenetr. large portion of ga and some of sc will have a very nasty evening
Where do you think it will hit now Lefty...and WHEN!! The band we are in now is unbelievable!!
What is the projected path of Stan, StanII, or Whatever the name will be?
soth of brunswick close the the border in 6-8 hrs but landfall on the ga side
I wonder if we will get good winds in the 40s in any of those bands, since it looks like we will be on the right side close to the center.
It is a little windier here (I am in Brunswick, not on the island) but it is getting really scary dark outside. Winds here 8 miles or so west of St. Simons are around 25 mph.
24. iyou
St.Simons - It would be interesting to query the source of name retirement, keeping your suspicions to yourself, to see what reason(s) they would give you for not retiring 'Gordon'. What is your elevation where you are?
st the strongest winds are actually 155 miles from the cenetr lol, but u should get winds in excess of 40mph sustained
posted this on last blog.....chaser...I was at FSU for a year, meteorology major, before leaving to attend seminary, majored in youth ministry
It must be nice to live up in Michigan and never have to worry about tropical weather, and create all sorts of cute names for these destructive storms (Stan III, Stan Jr.), meanwhile the rest of us down here in reality have to face this mess and deal with the fallout. I am glad you get such a kick out of all these disasters, Dr. Masters, at least someone is able to enjoy them. When you get 67 inches of snow this winter, I'll be sure to bask in the beatiful weather I will be enjoying in Florida and create nicknames for the snowstorms and casually discuss the hardship they cause the people up north. Get a life.
looking at radar..st.simons..you should be getting some serious weather in the next hour or so and the center is definately moving nw heading for an apparent landfall in extreme south ga. as we all predicted earlier...still chance a portion of eye stradles the extreme fl. coast before coming ashore in ga. which means Brunswick to Savannah will get some action northward to Beaufort..even Charleston a bit later...landfall of eyes I would guess around midnight give or take two hours...ne fl. earlier..se ga. midnight...somehow wobbles east (not likely)..then after midnight.
Tybee,

I believe I know what band you are talking about. It rolled in about an hour and a half ago. I work near the Talmadge Bridge and the wind and rain where pretty gusty, but I'm sure no where near as gusty as where you are being so close to the coast. I wonder when the next band like that will come through. Another interesting note I heard a slight rumble of thunder, isn't that rare in these things?
mctypething...I live near Cocoa Beach, so I have to deal with hurricane season EVERY year. I do not see anything wrong with how Dr. Masters is refering to a as yet developed system. All of us on this board do it. Talk about getting a life.

Sorry guys, that just got under my skin
im sorry i missed that weatherdude..thats is so wild ...when i ws discussing earlier whether I am going to continue to pursue my meteorological degree.. I feel led to go to seminary for christian counseling actually.. feel free to visit my website at hurricaneadventures.com. we share alot in common..a compliment to me it appears.
Here comes another band. Right as I am getting off of work in rush hour traffic :(.
34. iyou
mctypething - Would you rather meteorology was not a science and that these storms came upon you unannounced?? People like Dr.Masters work for YOU - and to wish hardship on others is just creepy.
Thanks weatherdude65, I was about to say the same. I deal with this every year as well. mctypething go to hell.
obsidian,
in weak systems like depressions and developing tropical storms..expect to hear thunder and get strong thunderstorms in outer bands.. a tropical cyclone by definition is an organized surface low of consolidated intense thunderstorms..a mature hurrricane ultimately forms the eyewall with the most intense thunderstorms concentrated around the eye which has thunder but its believed you cant hear it over the deafening rour of the powerful winds..in this case...to be expected.
I will certainly check out the site chaser......heading home for the day.
i havent been checking my radar and all the sudden..we are getting a rain squall as of 45 seconds ago here in Wilmington, N.C.
mctypething, you do realize that the National Hurricane Center uses the "nicknames" like Tammy and Stan, right?
cool deal weatherdude..drive safely. have a good night if Im not on later..I need to crash very soon.
What a change from yesterday, and yes had I not been working I could have went to the Beach today, sunny all day.
You all are a bunch of losers. What kind of chumps chat on a weather blog. I check Masters' info every now and then and it irks me that he can casually discuss and have fun with these storms, when they cause so much pain. You guys have way too much time on your hands.
our winds are now getting really gusty as Tammy moves farther north and tightens our pressure gradient with the high to our north..of course..the rains all from Tammy.
Obviously you do MC>>>CHUMP....typething
Where you located mcty..?
hey mstypething,
I have not said one insulting thing to you..do you think its appropriate to insult all those who chose to talk about a subject that fascinates them like the weather..noone here wants anyone to lose their home much less their lives...so calling a person a loser is pretty inappropriate..in my opinion..we all have varying gifts and talents as well as different interests and we should utilize them to help others as best we can...calling others names isn't what I consider a bigger waste of time.
Troll alert!!!
(where's stormjunkie when you need him?)
Don't feed the troll. Ignore the troll. Uh...can't remember the rest...
This has been a troll alert!!!
heres the purpose of meteorolgy to save lives issue warnings in advance so people will get away from danger..its because people continue to build and insist on rebuilding in the same areas that have historically been inundated by previous storms over the centuries is what cause so much damage and heartache not the storms themselves..meaning we dont do enough to mitigate the consequences but thats what this science is trying to do..hurricanes serve a purpose for without them we might have a much greater problem.
hurricanes are the mechanicism that transport the excessive heat from the tropics..i.e. africa and moves it west and eventually north into the higher latitudes to properly destribute the earths heat and equalize the pressure. So without these tropical storms ..wed have a much bigger problem.
mctypething - if you check this site often then why are you complaining....obviously you rely on Dr. Masters. Most of us are from FL and too rely on his and the other opinions. Obvoiusly you do too OR YOU WOULD NOT BE ON THIS BLOG!
correction..calling people names is a bigger waste of time..
Check out the cancun radar of potential VINCE......pretty cool....no loop but oh well



http://smn.cna.gob.mx/
If someone doesn't like what Dr. Master's has to say,
perhaps someone should GO AWAY!!!!!!!!!
First post. I figure if Mctyper can post his comments, then surely I can do no worse?

I for one am glad there are people who are into the weather. That's the great thing about the internet -- it helps people who have similar interests congregate for the individual and common good. Weather is by no means the oddest forum or blog I have seen -- people chat about laundry soaps and mustard collections, too.

I'm new to the WU blogs, and live in Oklahoma currently. It's got its own interesting weather, for sure, though not much this year. Got into weather as a kid, building pop-bottle barometers and so forth. Chased down a F4 tornado in the early 90's. Got married and started having kids, and have done nothing quite so adventerous since.

Can't help but compare the Gulf to a simmering kettle. Sure, the stove is off this late in the season, but the burner still holds some heat, and it'll be interesting to see what the Gulf cooks up over the next 30 days.

Does the WU cover tornado alley in the summer?
Zap
I know, I fed it, I'm sorry, I couldn't help it.
thanks for the link weatherboy..i can read pictures but not the spanish..lol..el Vincento..i believe I si?
mctypething, I find it ironic that you whine about how these people have nothing better to do while you keep checking the blog to see if anyone has responded to your nasty comments. If you don't like it, you have the choice of going away.
My point is this, I live in Florida and have for 24 years. I have to deal with this nonsense every year, as many of you do. My sister and brother-in-law lost everything in Katrina, and to hear someone who lives in Michigan act like the 2005 hurricane season is the greatest thing since sliced bread really annoys me. It is one thing to practice the science of meteorology, which is one that helps everyone. It is quite another to seem to get some sort of weird pleasure out of all of these storms, neglecting the fact that they kill people and leave others with absolutely nothing. It is easy to not understand this if you live in Michigan. I certainly don't jump for joy when I see the north get pounded with snow storms, I thank the lord that I don't have to deal with it.
in mctypethings defense..he has a point and a right to his opinion as we all do...none of us should be degrading the other.. If my mom lost her life in a hurricane..Im sure id be a bit less enthusiastic myself as we all would.
st. simons....what's conditions like now where you are? Also, see where leftyy posted something at 8:48 about closing the borders in 6-8 hours. What's up with that? Is Georgia closing it's borders?
A Big WU Hello To ZAPHOD! (love the name)
I apologize for my rude comments, that is frustration talking. My point remains though. I think Dr. Masters should stick to objective meteorology and keep the enthusiastic hurricane comments to a nill.
Is that an eye trying to form just to the east of Jacksonville? Tammy wouldn't DARE!Link
mctypething, if you have to deal with this every year then maybe the bright thing to do is leave. Nothing is forcing you to live in Florida. You obviously know the risks of living there so deal with it, just like the people in LA are going to have to deal with the big one when it happens. Everyone just sits there and waits for the disaster to happen but goes on with their daily lives taking advantage of each day then blame everyone else but themselves when it does happen. Sorry for what happened to your sister, but she knew the risks and chose to live there.
mctypething, produce some evidence of why you think Dr. Masters "wants" more tropical systems or is "enjoying" their formation. Please point it out for the rest of us, who see no such wish.
Mcty..first you might want to check out Dr.Master's background, he does know the human element of these storms and talks about them often, with compassion.His wife is currently in LA helping Katrina victims, I believe she is a medical professional. Second nobody, not the Dr. or anyone else has any control over these storms so to act like we have any joy in their destructiveness is silly. I too suffered through both Frances and Jeanne last year as did many of my neighbors and friends, that is exactly why I started watching this blog, so I could be more informed. I am sorry for your troubles, but it might do you some good to lighten up and get to know the valuable service this blog provides rather than being so critical.
apology accepted on my part and should be by all the rest as well..
Chaser, you are correct. But guess what I lived through Charley and am not complaining. mctypething did not say his family lost their life he only stated that they lost everything. I still believe, if MC THING should get its own life. IF MC THING has to "deal with this nonsense every year" then move. My $.02 worth.
I just got home. Conditions are surprisingly benign. Winds are out of the ENE at 25 or so, with gusts to 30-35. Steady fine-dropped light rain. The sky is creepily dark, like inside a severe thunderstorm, but no lightning. Low tide was at 4, and high tide is just past 10 tonight, so I will definitely be heading out for a look.
This long-range radar is much better:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jax_N0Z_lp.shtml

It seems that the hole is not an eye.
chase good to hear from you been busy with docotr appoint. and house repairs and the kids i think i understand that ladies pain i know you do to brother but if you would i se that troll word being used that i despise it has non christian connotations have asked repeatedly for it stop maybe you can get it stopped chase, by the way hello weatherguy chase he is one of the good guys got to brother keep up the good info and try to get that troll word and name calling stopped chance to fish if you know what i mean god bless
Accepted by me,welcome
MCTPETTHING....you're wrong about Dr. Masters and about most of us. Dr. Masters is a meteorologist. It's his life's work to study, analyze, and predict tropical storms. A large part of any true meteorologist's calling is furhering the science to help with foreacsts to help save lives. You mistake the fascination with these storms with what you think is some sort of perverse pleasure that you perceive in Dr. Masters. I think you're wrong about him and about most on this blog. I do think that what you say does apply to some of our more enthusiastic or obsessed members....but not to most of us.
No hurricancechaser.........your mother would not lose her life because you would go get her and get her out of harms way......if you live within 50 miles of the coast....you need to expect a storm occasionally and its everyones responsibility to take care of their own lives and property.......I lived in central florida all my life.......and I keep up with lastest weather news....and i call my friends all over the country if i see bad stuff coming their way......people need to take responsibility instead of dishing it out to others......And I understand that their are a few individuals who have no family and no means of evacuating and I feel for those people. Thats where the state and local governments need to step in.....but for the rest of us.....you live in freakin paradise.......storms have been hitting these areas long before we were here and will be long after we are gone.....and theres not a darn thing you can do to change this.....You know if there were a place that was completely safe from the weather i would tell you but there isnt...so I guess everyone has to take responsibility.........geezzzzzz......I guess that is asking alot....
in reality each of you make good points..and thats why having a blog where people can dicuss things openly without resulting to demeaning another is so helpful for us all..now i gues its time for cuum by yah :)
weatherboy..my same sentiments earlier..I was not agreeing with him just saying I can understand why he feels like he does and yes I look at it the same as you do myself...being understanding doesn't mean agreeing to act the same.
Sorry for this Long Post, But You'all Have Probably noticed a number of the "Regular Bloggers" might be missing today. Here's a bit of info passed along...

Posted By: Raysfan70 at 8:45 PM GMT on October 05, 2005.
Roadrunner, Cogent users unable to hit major sites
Both Roadrunner and Cogent users are complaining about a level 3 decision to turn off public peering with Cogent & Time Warner Cable (not sure why yet, perhaps a possible contract negotiation spat). As a result, many broadband users can't hit websites such as Photo Bucket or The Drudge Report. Customers who call in for support are being told that the network partners are working on a resolution, but aren't given an ETA

From: WunderYakuza
FAVORITES BLOCKED
TO: Raysfan70
DATE: 2005-10-05 20:25:55 (8:25 PM GMT)
SUBJECT: Re: Unable to get into WU
We're aware of the problem, as it's affecting access to our site for many users. No solution that I know of at this time. -Aaron/WunderYakuza
It is very weird here in the Pensacola area currently. Very dark and cloudy for this time of day - and yet really nothing to speak of on the radar.
Posted By: hurricanechaser at 9:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2005. heres the purpose of meteorolgy to save lives issue warnings in advance so people will get away from danger..its because people continue to build and insist on rebuilding in the same areas that have historically been inundated by previous storms over the centuries is what cause so much damage and heartache not the storms themselves..meaning we dont do enough to mitigate the consequences but thats what this science is trying to do..hurricanes serve a purpose for without them we might have a much greater problem.

I am one of the crazies that live in L.A. waiting for the big one... We choose to live here for the mild climate and with the understanding that when the big one comes, we will possibly lose everything we own and maybe our lives. We have relatives and friends in all parts of the US and they all have something to "worry" about. "Pick your poison and keep a good attitude about it" is my motto.
Good evening, everyone.

I thought that SE Florida was going to have it easy and all the flood warnings would be removed. Oddly, after a rather nice day today, it is now pouring like crazy.

How are you all doing more north of me?
I live on Long Island and I hope for snowstorms every winter, thank you very much.
mctype, hi and welcome to the blog, I think... ::G::
I've been here since just before Katrina, at 52 have spent my whole life in Carib or So FL so have had my share of hurricanes, inc'ing the north eyewall of Andrew.
Dr. Jeff does NOT downplay the significance of TC in any sense. He damned near died in Hugo, if you'll read his harrowing story about the hunter that almost didn't come out of the eye. I'd always known we'd almost lost a crew and plane, never thought I'd read a first-person account. Clearly he takes these systems seriously.
If you check in, after a while you'll read ALL of us talking about the blobby thing, the blob that ate the Bahamas, even our buddy mybahamas knows it and he's been seriously swiped. So know, we are all deadly serious about what can adn DOES happen. But you can't ALWAYS be deadly serious or you go bonkers. In fact, we can get pretty damned silly here. After all, I learned about weeble woobles on this list!!! ROFL!!!
Hey Chaser did I read you are in wilmington,NC?
I am not so sure that is not an eye--true it is heading to the NNW, but then isn't that exactly what Tammy is doing? This actually worries me a little bit, because if the inner core does a surprise spin up and gets doen to 997-998 mb the winds could get to 60 with gusts to hurricane force. We have had a foot of rain already, and since Mike and I bought the house 13 years ago, I have NEVER seen standing water in the yard, like there is now--and like Mike says there has been all day. Winds like that could uproot trees in the wet ground.
hey cococreek! we're having a lovely afternoon here in the Gables! Come on down. Just saw Don show your area, you're all yellow!!! LOL!!!
hey cosmic...lefty obviously had a typo we were both agreeing that we saw tammy coimg ashore at the Fl.ga. border most likely on the ga. coast..crosing border not closing it :)
Evening all. Just dropping the following MIA NWS statement here and then I'm out.
For those of you in South Florida:

Statement as of 5:40 PM EDT on October 05, 2005


... Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday morning...

The Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of South Florida... including the following areas... in South Florida... Broward metropolitan... Dade metropolitan... eastern Collier... Glades... Hendry... Mainland Monroe... Palm Beach eastern... Palm Beach western... western Broward... western Collier and western Dade.

* Through Friday morning

* a trough of low pressure extends from Tropical Storm Tammy... now located off the northeast coast of Florida... to an area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan Channel. A low pressure system is expected to develop along the trough Thursday and move north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday. This will bring a large amount of tropical moisture into South Florida and result in heavy rainfall. In addition... a front is expected to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week creating
a very favorable situation for more heavy rainfall across South Florida. Train echo effects... meaning thunderstorms producing very heavy rains developing and moving across the same areas over and over... will be possible.

* A general 5 to 8 inches of rainfall is possible across South Florida mainly from this evening through Saturday.

* Waves of heavy rainfall will likely cause ponding of water especially in poorly drained urban areas and underpasses as well as low lying areas. Residents of South Florida should make preparations now to protect property from flooding.

A Flood Watch means that conditions will be favorable for heavy rains and possible flooding. Persons in the watch area should remain weather alert and be ready for quick action should flooding begin or a warning be issued. Additional updates will be issued later today.

VTEC:/X.CON.KMFL.FA.A.0007.051005T2300Z-051007T1200Z/

You know, yellow is not really my color. I look much better in red :)

rain stopped now. Did you notice that the wind and such are coming from the southwest on radar?Link
chase i agree sisterinlaw lost 1.2 million dollar beachhouse and only got 200,000 in insurance and have intentions on wanting to rebuild on beach i told them if you get burned why jump back in the fire i dont understand either, but cosmic is right thier is some who want these things to hit for a personal experience you and i and others on here are fascinated with them but want them to go out to sea if it means never experiencing another once again got to go keep up the good weather and try to keep reeling in fish i hope others know what we mean about the fishing lol.
its a fact that areas that havent had weak trees taken out by mor recent storms like ga. for example could expect 60 mph gusts to uproot trees if that materializes especially in wet soil conditions.. and tress fall on houses, and powerlines..i.e..could lose electricity if she strengthens and moves in south of you.
Saint Simons enjoy......tammy is going to stop by and say hi....just a little nudge....just enough to let you know shes around......
hey Saint..I missed you there..Im sorry always nicv seeing you brother:)
hurricane chaser....how many storms have u chased?
If you cannot copy that link, go to wunderground, enter zip 31522 and click on the radar link and check for the circle you see on the GA coast. click there until you get 4x zoom and animate. We live right on the north edge of that circle.
cococreek, yeah, I like red and purple better too, but not on a weather map! ::snicker::
yeah, all day been coming out of the southwest.
can't seem to get the baro pressure up tho'. It's back down to 29.72, was hopeful when late this AM it made it up to 29.78/9... thought my sinuses would get a break...
lefty, can you give a link for the gfs animation ?
weatherboyfsu do you think that is an eye trying to form just east of Jax?
URNT12 KNHC 052137
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 05/21:16:30Z
B. 30 deg 01 min N
081 deg 16 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 084 deg 055 nm
F. 116 deg 042 kt
G. 085 deg 075 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C/ 306 m
J. 24 C/ 305 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0121A TAMMY OB 14
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 19:10:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 85 / 17NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
Well finally you going to get a taste....saint simon...you'll be alright.....i was going to go up to jacksonville, but these darn storms are just teasing the heck out of me........have you noticed that they are all females,,,,,,,,lets see....katrina, ophelia, rita and tammy.....yeppp....freakin women......lol
I have officially chased and have created live action documentaries for Hurricanes Alex, Charley in N.C. (cat. one here), Dennis (cat. 3), Katrina (cat. 3), Ophelia (cat. 1)..I have also chased Jeanne last year in Fl. and Isabel north of Wilmington where I live.. my website is hurricaneadventures.com which will give my hurricane history, chases etc. Katrina opened the door for me to do free lance work for Fox News..
not really and its not going to have enough time too either.....but your going to have fun for the next 3 hours........you should already be getting some good stuff.....Im going to check the radar again.....be right back.......
Saint, my apologies for using the "t" word, I did not know it offended you, and I certainly had no intention to offend. I hope you will accept my apologies with the promise that I will never use the "t" word again.
motion is now nw. landfall at the fl/ga border in 6 hrs or less

cordinates per recon

10-5-05
12:30-1004mb 29.13n 80.82w
2:46pm-1003mb 29.57n 80.98w
4:05pm-1001mb 29.90n 81.12w
5:16pm-1002mb 30.02n 81.27w
This should be fun. The tide is rising, and I will be eating my dinner soon. The wind has increased noticably in the past half hour but is not really strong yet. As soon as I eat dinner, will go to the beach :)
hurrchaser, about the trees, you ren't kidding. they are in for a shock between Ma Nature's rude pruning of trees and the extra wet soil loosening up the roots...
lol..we have all got this down dont we lefty...fl./ga. border around midnight or sooner..lol...I gotta crash now...its nice meeting all of you and talking with my new friends from before..have a good night everyone .
here is the link to the very latest gfs. if u refresh the screen every few minutes more frames will show up. its about 2-4 days of 16 right now so be patient with it

Link
The highest winds we got in Frances last year were sustained 43, gust 54. I wonder if when that orange and red stuff gets here whether we will beat that :) Frances brought the highest sustained winds and gusts from a tropical system since David in 1979.
alriight chaser catch u later man
saint simons.....it should start cranking up really soon..the center is not to well defined on radar....but should be very close to u about 10pm tonight...you still need to be careful.....this is not major, but just be cautious..........
i dont know how to animate this, do you have a direct link lefty>?
wish you were here to watch it with me fsu
22 here u go

Link
Im calling in the troops...IM setting up a road block....VINCE is not getting thru florida without a stormchase..............The females have all been to elusive....plus I have to work more....cant just call in anymore like the good ole days........
cococreek, you aware of three football players struck by lightning in the last 1/2 hour? I don't recognize the name of the HS, came in on it late on Chan 10 and it's not up on their local10.com. They're not sure whether Tammy-related or not. two are critical, being worked on can't even put them in air-rescue yet!
anytime you get sustained winds at the surface of tropical storm force gusts of 55 mph or greater....will see some trees get uprooted with the wet soil and dont be surprised if you lose power...question is will Tammy actually bring those winds onshore in your area..be careful..i expect a landfall in s. ga. but the strongest winds are well east of center so not sure if youll see gusts that high...theres still time for tammy to consolidate and bring stronger winds down to the surface as she tries to wrap more convection closer to its center. I havent looked at a radar for two hours now so Im going on experience but my best quess from what I saw trending earlier..a tropical storm sustained wind and or gusts 50 mph or greater is honestly fun to experience..and not too dangerous..still be careful..stay away from the tress!
cococreek, monarch hs in coconut creek!
me too....but you'll be alright.....been there..done that many times....if you get winds over 40 mph, I would be surprised.....
Hello Blog...I am in extreme SE GA (St. Mary's). 4 miles from the coast and 3 miles North of the FL-GA border. We have had heavy rains for the last several hours with winds no more than 20 mph sustained, gusts to 30. Negligable damage, minor street flooding.
dont get too close to the water and watch for falling trees...a large tree limb falling on your car can cause you harm...be careful..as you experience tammy..stay safe..goodnight all..thanks lefty .
Hurricanechaser we need to talk stormchasing later.....compare notes and experiences.....
hurricanechaser???
"still be careful..stay away from the tress!" their tresses might get caught in the branches, huh? ROFLMBO!!!
I agree weatherboy...winds over 40 mph would be suspect with tammy at the surface over land with center so close to st. simons...but theres still time for tammy to try..goodnight all.
lol cggirl..thats why i need sleep..lol..been up too long..this is getting too addictive for me :)Goodnight everyone .
fsu..id like that..hit me up anytime..im glad ive met you all..leave a message on my blog if you miss me in this blog..ok..goodnight all .
WOW! 9 other students are being treated on the scene. One football player hit in chest by lightning, 2 critical condition, two stable taken to hospital. No wonder CococreekFLA was talking about having some really nasty weather in his area. This all went down in his backyard!
yup, chaser, addictive is the word!
Im out of here as well....saint simon enjoy its your turn tonight to have a little fun....by 11pm if things dont drastically change, you should be done with the heavy stuff......chat with ya later..........

Hi all, the objection by mctypething to my use of cute names for developing tropical systems is a reasonable one. It is a challenge to make a blog infomative yet not boring, and I'll try to do that without seeming insensitive to the tremendous suffering these storms cause. My wife just came back from a 2-week deployment with Red Cross to Louisiana, so I am very aware of this issue right now!

Jeff Masters
Dr. Masters, please don't change anything because of dopes like mctypething. Using names like Stan Jr. is a perfectly reasonable thing to do.
Dr. Jeff,
We'd like to read her account, if at some point she would be comfortable sharing her experiences.
I still think that there was, perhaps, an over-reaction...
The names, in this case, are suitable metaphors for the origin of the storm; I see nothing that could be genuinely offensive. The objection seems to only stem from his/her perception that you somehow enjoy watching hurricanes wreak havoc, which we all know is false. I don't think he/she ever responded to my question of why he/she held that perception.
This is the ultimate example of political correctness gone wrong. Dr. Masters, what you do is beneficial to everyone and if someone is this sensitive I say its there own problem.
Dr. Masters has posted his opinion. If you don't like it move on to a new weather blog.

Blinding rain outside now--hard as I have seen. Winds 30 mph or so, with gusts to 40--maybe. Winds not as strong as I expected.
Barometer has stopped falling. only 1/3" of ain in last hour officially, but seems like much more.
Are you talking to me wannabe?
HI All:
I never thought that I'd do anything but lurk here--actually, this is the first blog I've ever read, let alone respond to. I started reading Dr. Masters' blog during Hurricane Dennis when my husband was down at Bluewater Bay, FL securing our sailboat the weekend before the storm hit. I was able to give him updated info constantly because of what I learned here--and got him back here to our home in Alabama safely just before the storm hit the Panhandle. Thank you for helping me do that!
And then because of all that you know and share, I was able to pass on info to my daughter in Louisiana before Katrina and Rita hit. It was apparent to me then that Dr. Masters and all of you cared passionately--and understood better than the elected officials apparently did--about the tragedy in the making for New Orleans and the Gulf coast.
I grew up in south Florida and have experienced many hurricanes then and now, but I've learned so much from all of you about meterology and respect all of you for that as well as the way it's approached. If we didn't inject some lightheartedness occasionally into the discussion, the subject matter could become way too overwhelming. By the way, I do have a life, but I check this blog at least twice a day. I have a business, I'm a former English teacher, and I take care of my elderly mother.
I apologize for the length of this...but it's important that you all know that the information that you contribute is valued and used to save lives.
If you don't want us to comment on this nickname thing anymore, Dr. Masters, feel free to say so explicitly. Otherwise, we'll probably all go right on talking about it and trying to pursuade, and I doubt there's nothing wrong with that; this is a blog, after all!
Dr Masters ~ I'm suprised at the reponse to the little pet names we have all used to decribe the up & coming storms before the NWS gives them a #. We gotta call them something.

Anyway I was interested in what happened with the NWS meeting, privitization & all. Missed the live discusion you gave us. But I came across this ~Link. Is this for real?

Thanks,
& for your blog too,
Skyepony
Well I am calling the Yucatan blob the Son of Stan until he gets his own name.
The comment was not aimed at anyone in particular. Dr. Masters puts a lot of his time into this blog and he shouldn't have to justify his decision. Let's jsut leave the man alone to continue doing what we all really care about here.
SON of STAN. I like that. Sounds good.
Here's the sad link to the lightning strike in Coconut Creek Link

What a sad story FortLauderdale!
Is that website a spinoff of National Enquirer? or maybe Sun?
Yeech, it was a play on names. It wasn't like he did a hurricane-themed version of Eminem's song Stan. p.s. we should be together too
Hey everyone,

Quick question - I live in Orlando, FL and we just had a batch of heavy rain and some lightning move through. When I looked at the radar, I cannot tell if this is part of Tammy charging up the coast OR if this is part of the GOMBlob/Stan Jr./Vince-to-be/______fill in the blank.

Can anyone tell me which system this batch of rain was affiliated with?

Dr. Masters - thanks so much for all the time you commit to educating all of us on tropical weather issues. I have learned a LOT since joining!

The humor on this blog alleviates much of the tension for me personally that is often associated with an impending system. Trust me, after 3 hurricanes marched through Orlando last year, we learned mighty quick that a sense of humor can carry you a longgggggggggggg way!

Thanks in advance.

Otowngirl :)
Otwon that is an outer feeder band of Tammy.
Well, coming from someone who lives on the MS coast (just east of Biloxi) and had family also in New Orleans, I can say none of this bothers me at all, and after Katrina, I can say I am even more amazed by the power of these storms, but that doesn't mean I want to ever see one hit land, its just the nature of the beast.
Center may have moved inland just south of GA/FL border. Going out to experience my storm!
StSimons.......I'm in St. Marys at the moment.....think I'm getting the last nasty cell from Tammy....heavy downpour with almost zero wind. strange.
BTW www.wlox.com is site for the local news on the MS Coast, gives a lot of video and images of the area so you can get an idea of what happened down here
now I'm hearing remnants of Tammy and possible future Vince are gonna combine and head up in my direction (Long Island, NY) joy lol...the SHIPS model has the storm with winds over 60 mph when it hits...and everyone's saying major flooding possible.
I really have no idea, the link was posted here earlier today. I didn't reconize the source, hence my question is this for real?
Its tropical here...
Its tropical there...
Its tropical everywhere! :-)
The link you gave directs you to the Daily Kos site. This is a hardcore Democrat site, VERY anti-Bush and Republicans in general. That said, the NWS story is definitely something to follow. I would certainly prefer everything stay the way it is now.
Hi everybody, I just signed up, been 'lurking' for a few weeks. I posted something, but it seems to have gotten lost, so I'll summerize it here: Everybody on this planet, is impacted in some way, by the weather, and it is one topic we can safely discuss as a conversation ice-breaker. I have always been fascinated by weather, and must confess, after living in Southwest Florida for the past 20 years, that I am a storm watcher.

Hurricane Charley ripped off part of my roof last year, and my little family and I had to live with church friends for 2 months while our house was repaired. Because I have been a weather watcher, I had the good sense to evacuate my family, 12 hours before Charley made landfall; in fact, when it did not go over the mountains of Cuba, but instead went through the Valley, that is when I made the decision to evacuate. Glad I didn't have to hear my roof get ripped off. Meanwhile I have cousins in Pensacoal, and in Mississippi. Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina wiped each of them out in various ways. neverthe less, here is where we live. We love it here. and Storms still fascinate me,

People have always and will always build in harms way.

Metorologists are scientists and they srtive to communicate dry and sometimes frightening information, to the rest of us. That they can do so, with a touch of nice writing, or to use nicknames like, "Stan Junior," is fine with me. We all do it.

When I lived up in Penna, we gave Blizzards nicknames. And Floods, too.

Thanks to you all,
WhaleMaiden.
should southern New England be ready for moderate tropical storm or gale conditions?
Thanks SaintSimons!!! Sometimes it's hard to know where one storm leaves off and the new one begins! Such is the case here.

I'll have time to dry off from Tammy before the newbie gets here Thursday night/Friday morning....okay, so maybe not DRY off, perhaps it would be better to say wrung out...and ready for the next round of nature!

Stay safe and again, thanks!

Otowngirl :)
A FEW WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W...ONE WEAKER LOW CENTER JUST SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W...AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW CENTER OFF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 12N77W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W ARE NEAR THE 17N73W LOW CENTER.
? I count 4 ???
Im there Otown - over in titusville...getting ready for some more tropical weather...makes it hard to plan a camping trip!
Dr. Masters, I always appreciated the way you mix humor with mounds of objecive information. It also makes your posts a lot easier to read.

Please don't allow one blogger to influence you to into making your posts resemble the emotionless NHC bulletins.

"A person without a sense of humor is like a wagon without springs. It's jolted by every pebble on the road." Henry Ward Beecher

Just my opinion,
-Willjax
You guys just keep up the good work! Found this site at the beginning of season, mostly lurk, but I've asked a question or two. Rode out before, during, and after Frances and Jeanne in a St. Lucie County ER last year with minimal sleep, no shower, eating PBJ uncrustables, and watching the sewage back up into the main ER. Talk about using humor to get through the day! Lost my house to Jeanne and will never forget the weeks of hearing generators as I drove to and from work. All in all, though, much better than a Katrina hit! I read these blogs daily to learn, keep up on current situations, and as an alternative to the hype of local weather stations (they're not all bad, but it can be drama from time to time). Anyway, great job all and I appreciate the responses to my questions, when I have them. Feel alot more prepared this year:)
Looks like two waves in the Atlantic, one very near the Windward Islands and the other well to the East. Link

NHC says, "SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1550
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WELL
ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE MAY BE
FORMING WITH 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. "
Lefty...Has the center come on shore. The weather here is off the charts. Just went out to the pier and you can barley stand up. Rain feels like needles...and getting worse. WHAT IS GOING ON!?!?!?
CENTER OF TAMMY MOVED INLAND...STRONG WINDS STILL OFFSHORE...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF FERNANDINA
BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM FERNANDINA BEACH NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES CONCERNING POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS OUTSIDE
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
TAMMY MOVED INLAND NEAR MAYPORT FLORIDA WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. AT 8
PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST...VERY NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TAMMY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FATHER
INLAND OVER EXTREME AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AND MAINLY OVER WATER. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
TONIGHT.
Tybee...here in St. Marys, it just slacked off, barely sprinkling and very light breeze. The center is on land around the FL-GA border a few miles south of here...but obviously, the worst is north and east and mostly still offshore. You should be seeing it for a couple more hours.
Hey guys, just got on, was having problems accessing the site, I think they're sorted out.

I asked Dr. Masters what he thought about the Katrina article that was vigorously discussed here last night. He sent me a reply, saying that he will try to remember to write a blog entry on the subject. You guys (as I was) may be shocked by what he says.

But enough on that. It looks like we have a system spinning up in the Yucatan Channel, and could quickly (as soon as tomorrow IMO) become Vince. I also believe that the wave in the Atlantic should become a storm (Wilma).

This will be a very long week. If you live in a coastal area, YOU NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT IS GOING ON AND PREPARE TO TAKE ACTION IN A MOMENTS NOTICE.
Link
Atlantic looks pretty wicked tonight...
Repost with proper link...hopefully.

Looks like two waves in the Atlantic, one very near the Windward Islands and the other well to the East.

Link

NHC says, "SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1550
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WELL
ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE MAY BE
FORMING WITH 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR."
I am curious, any info on:
E Bahama blob
SW Puerto Rico blob
S Cuba Blob
N Cuba Blob
SW Jamaica Blob
E Islands Blob
Middle of the Atlantic Blob
That ULL or other Atlantic Blob


Dr. Masters,
I'd like to hear your wife's story as well.

A good friend just got back from a week of Rita volunteering near Lake Charles, LA. His team passes out ice, water, and food to about 1000 families per day, mostly to those still evacuating from the coastal destruction. He said he'd never imagined he'd see so many people crying with gratitude for 30lbs of ice and a few cases of water.

We've all seen tornado damage here, but it doesn't go on for 100s of miles! I think I'll take my chances with Tornado Alley versus the gulf coast, if it's all the same to you all!
Zap
Skyepony:


That article was a crock of...well, you know. *L*
Cool link Nole :-)
look at this, Stan jr. has been upgrade from a potential for deveopment in 36 hours to a possible tropical cyclone.
skyepony,
interesting article. clearly subjective.
however, for those of you who aren't aware. there are politicos out there who ARE trying to get a bill passed whereby we will have to PAY for NWS and NHC services just as if they were a cable or satellite provider. this is coming about due to those pols whose States have commercial weather service providers that don't like the FREE competition provided by our government services. Oh, please DO remember that we are ALREADY paying for these services with our hard-earned tax dollars.
Anyone thinks this is a partisan pitch on my part, do some digging. With NHC here in our backyard, it came as quite the shock to OUR community...
Tornadoty are you on roadrunner. Others are having problems.
CoconutCreek.......... Monarch has to be very close to you... unreal...almost every field that I've encountered down here has lightning detectors.... can't imagine what happened.... the detectors have an 8-10 mile range, that it is mandatory that participants/fans leave.. I read the one report (on here) they were running off the field......how awful.......
ErRn! Wow! Glad I wasn't in your shoes last year. That had to be pretty grim! Thanks for taking care of folks!
185. P682
Its been raining lightly in SW GA since about 5:00pm this afternoon. Everything I see on the path shows what is left of Tammy will be directly over us tomorrow afternoon. We need rain! We have been dry throughout September.
Things look mighty active in the tropics right now!
billsfan, I asked cococreek earlier, as I watched it unfold live on TV, but he never got back to me... wondered if maybe he got power knocked out or something as was abruptly gone
A more technical question:

These blogs appear to attract those interested in general weather forecasting using the technical products of various institutions. Are there blogs or other sites related to the forecasting algorithms and tools themselves? As an electronic systems engineer, I'm curious about the model generation systems themselves.

There seem to be open-source projects for all sorts of programs, and distributed-computing projects for SETI, prime number generation, and other stuff. Wouldn't it be cool if the PCs of us bloggers could be running the next model while we plink away?
Zap
It was interesting, cgables, very loud and windy!
whalemaiden, hope everyone in your family is doing OK, sounds like all took a solid blow!
Everything we do everyday of our lives is directly impacted by weather and it is only in the last few years that it has even been recognized, for example, on the news broadcasts and given any sort of time or the tools to explain to the average viewer what to expect and how to prepare.
I thought it was my computer going nuts. This is the only site with which I have any problems. I better get out as much info as I can before I lose the site again.
191. P682
Zapshod...
I use a less scientific method for my weathercasting, open source of course! Poetry....
I send out Sparky the Weatherdog. If he come back in wet, I know its raining. If he comes back shivering, then its probably cold. If he doesn't come back at all, the I figure its really, really windy!
Interesting concept though.
ErRn, having done the Andrew *song* I can well imagine it was loud. That is one sound you don't ever forget or want to repeat. Too damned eerie for me, still, at the very thought makes my hackles rise, guess the old flight or fight response
Cgables: thanks for the info on the Monarch High football players. So terrible. Monarch high is about 1/2 mile from my house and is the school the neighborhood kids go to. We get a lot of lightning here in S. Florida but tonight was actually less than normal. And that storm I mentioned earlier didn't last more than 1/2 an hour or so. Just a lot of power in a small time period. Apparently, yellow can be pretty bad!

It hasn't rained since then other than a light drizzle.
Just want to thank all who contribute here....and suggest that those who seem to have a need to disparage the efforts of Dr. Masters (and many others) might be happier if they went elsewhere.
GACK!!! Zap, you are talking to (me, at least) the VERY technologically challenged here ::VBG::
Yeah, that'd be major cool, but I'D prolly bring down the whole danged system, with MY luck!!! LOL!!!
I'll just lurk at that level... I KNOW MY limitations...
That's exactly it cgables! I'm on the fight team (hurricane duty in the ER), so I keep up to date with what's going on. Don't really want to do it again, but at least this year it won't be so much of a surprise. This is really a great blog.
Cococreek. I sure hope the kids will be OK. One of those boys took a lightning strike direct to the chest according to local10. I'm sending my own little prayers up for him and his buddies...
P682,
Sounds like Canemane could integrate your StW weather monitoring device to his CSE algorithms. Maybe he could include ANT (Ant Nervousness Trend) indications from another blog as well! LOL!
Zap
I wonder if they have a lightening detection system. A lot of the parks around here have them b/c we get so much lightening down here. I believe when the lightening hit at the Dolphins practice a month or so ago they had a lightening detection system but people didn't have a chance to get inside. Correct me if I'm wrong here... I really don't remember.
What happens if we reach Hurricane Alpha and it is a major storm whose name needs to be "retired"? How do we replace the name?
well, skeetobite has the two most likely candidates for a name up with models. What's this disclaimer about UKMET? Anyone with more understanding about models explain?
http://skeetobiteweather.com/index.asp
Watch out Sofla: some stuff is coming up from the south.

Link

Can anyone tell me where our weather is coming from: is it stan residue or Tammy? It's getting hard to keep track.
204. P682
Has anyone seen the picture posted on the news websites today about the burmese python that ate the alligator in the Everglades then EXPLODED! It was spotted from the air by a biologist scouting the 'glades for damage from Katrina.
Nasty!!!
Cococreek, I remember something about that as well.
I heard something said that today this storm came up too fast or that the lightning came out of nowhere, which would jibe with your comments about it not lasting too long and *only* being yellow, which we were joking about... vs. red. Doesn't make sense. This had to be freakish b/c all sports coaches down here KNOW we're the lightning capital of USA. I wonder if a detection system would have given enough warning, my understanding is that they were already leaving the field...
What an awful way to go!

Here's the article (you know I like my sun-sentinel :)) ....Link
I have missed something about the lighting and the football team. What is up?
"Watch out Sofla: some stuff is coming up from the south."
Sheesh thanks! cococreek LOL... yeah, that looks like Son of Stan heading our way which is why y'day they put the flood watch in effect for tonight... ::sigh:: today was a quiet one for me, tomorrow I have to be all over the county for meetings...
nyah, nyah, my article is better than yours!!! LOL
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/12820947.htm
This story really DOES belong in an episode of the new TV series Invasion... when were we discussing it? Last night?
624, a HS team had 3 members directly struck by lightning, 2 in critical condition, 2 stable, (I know, that makes 4) and there were 9 others treated at the scene. Bad all the way around...
CGables: Yeah, well the Sun-Sentinel quotes Dr. Masters -- who does the Miami Herald quote??????? Huh????

lol
dang, cococreek, you got me there!!! RATS!!!
Don't mess with Broward!!!
Just in case you can't hear my goofy tone of voice.. I was joking around!
Bring on Vince. Although the steady rains today showed me a minor leak in my sunroom. Luckily it's the kid's playroom so I stuck a plastic wagon under the leak. DAMN YOU TAMMY! DAMN YOU!

Oh, and GO YANKS!
rain is moving north from the keys
Thanks for the info cg
Earlier it was coming in from the west and now it's the south. Not normal at all.
the yankees stink. go someone else!
ROFLMBO!!! I KNOW!!! I'm not as thin-skinned as all that. I wait and listen thru cyber space, I can get a pretty good read of folks after a few entries. I know who's who here!
We're really cool, no problemo.
Where are you from RX and Jhan?
222. P682
Makes me wonder why supposedly SANE adults keep pythons or constrictors in their homes with small children or infants close by.
I would have loved to have seen the battle between the two and to see how long it took for Skippy the python to strangle Alex the alligator!
jeez looks like the tropics are firing up good tonight...they havent looked like this all year. that wave approaching the leeward lslands looks impressive also looks like another week low forming in the Bahamas. The other wave off of Africa is flaring up as well. Some computer models bring that wave into the Carribean. the nest landfalling system will be Vince around Tampa Bay.
time to go feed poochies, catch you later!!!
mabye roman letters would replace greek letters?
The defining characteristic of Tammy is water, not rain.
Bermuda is a hotbed for development this time year
oops, water, not wind.
Glad you clarified that StSimon. I was really curious about the difference b/w water and rain :)
Just came back from my little adventure. Winds were lighter than in Frances and Jeanne, although there were some gusty squalls which probably had sustained winds of 40 right along the beach. Ocean was about 1/2 foot above normal high tide 2 1/2 hours before high tide.
Ft Walton Beach FL
i see 3 potential systems now, all with good chances, the yucutan one, lleward one and, midatlantic one
Any thoughts, Turtle, on what general direction they may be headed?
Hey all!
Hey coconut, didn't have to work today... I'm over at my mother's house on her comp.

Tropics are busy... I can't believe that Tammy formed today! What about Stan Jr???
Hi, thanks for all your comments about the appropriateness of injecting humor into by blog postings. I will take it all into consideration. I do feel that sometimes I let my considerable scientific enthusiasm for following and learning all I can about these greatest storms on Earth make it sound as if I am insensitive to the great suffering they cause. It is a difficult paradox do wrestle with. At the same time, some humor is probably needed to lighten up these dreary posts. It's a learning process that I'll improve on, since this is my first year doing this. I appreciate all the feedback, postitive and negative.

As for the NWS gag order reported on by
RAW STORY (which is a highly politically opinionated web site), I have written to some of my contacts in the NWS to confirm the facts, and seek comments on the importance of this. I'll write more about this when I find out more--and hurricane season quiets down.

As for my wife's experiences in Louisiana, here's what she wrote early on in her stay:

Hi All,

I thought I'd let you know whats up down here in the muggy hot south. I'm working for the Red Cross. My job is Staff Health. I'm driving all over the state checking on the staff at the shelters. I've been to the Cajundome in Lafayette, the Civic Center in and Burton Centers in Lake Charles, and yesterday I visited a bunch of chuch run shelters. The Red Cross volunteers are really working hard, they are not wasting your money. I've seen some problems in the workers,
mostly due to overuse injuries, minor traumas and not taking their meds.

I've heard some amazing stories from the people who were rescued. The stress level is still really horrible for a lot of people. There is no privacy. The clients were not complaining about the food, but I won't eat it. I've never been a fan of southern cooking I guess.

Feel free to donate to the Red Cross. Despite my frustration with the paperwork, they are getting a huge job done. The logistics of running this show is mind boggling. If you are inspired to volunteer, go for it. Your talents and skills won't be used to the max, but they are still needed. I've seen professional people unloading trucks, cooking, running the toy "stores" and doing "mundane" tasks. Honestly, there are so many things that need to be done, and the Red Cross needs intelligent good work ethic types doing them. Some of the volunteers, kind hearted as they are, should not be here for a variety of reasons. The Red Cross training is a pain, but you can tell who had it and who didn't.

I better get back to work now...who knows when I'll get to touch another keyboard.

Diane

As for the article claiming that Katrina was a Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi and Category 3 (minimal!) at landfall in Louisiana, all I can say is that if the one saying it is Dr. Mark Powell, it's probably true. He is the world's expert on hurricane landfall intensity. (And a great windsurfer--I bought my first windsurfer from him!)

As for the tropical disturbances at 8N 38W and just east of the Lesser Antilles Islands: let's leave that until tomorrow. The wave at 8N 38W looks very impressive for being so far south, but let's see if it holds together another 12 hours. There may be some interaction with the disturbance developing just east of the Islands later in the week, could be another really complicated forecast situation. See you in the morning.

Jeff Masters


Hey!! I just looked at accuweather and it reminded me of a discussion on here not too long ago regarding where in Florida was the safest place to be. Wasn't Jacksonville recommended?
Hi All,

Since I've discovered the Blog section of W.U. it's been great getting all the currents and perspectives.

I will be pleased to give you the read on storm activities as they occur here on the Outer Banks, N.C. in the future.

This has been a very good experience. It's almost like live chat, and was thinking how nice that would be. Does anyone know if a weather chatroom exsists?
Rain was blinding--and the island is covered with water like I have never seen in my life. We have had over 15" of rain so far this month, smashing the old Oct record of 13.70". St simons did not report observations for almost 40 hours on the 4th-5th when over 9 inches fell in our rain guage here. Surf was high and noisy but not unprecedented. There was very muted lightning in the sky but no thunder. Lightning was absent in Jeanne and Frances. Visibilities were VERY low, less than 1/4 mile at times in blinding rain and seaspray. Winds have calmed considerably since a dry slot has moved between us and the center. This is good, because the tide would have risen another 2 feet and there would have been trouble--but the surge is lessening for sure--winds now barely 15.

Unfortunately, a feeder band seems to be setting up over us and not letting us get a dry slot rest. But it is not really spectacular to look out the window and see or walk around in--just more heavy rain.

My conclusion is that lefty and weatherboyfsu would not have been impressed--except maybe by the intensity of the rain.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks Dr. Masters. I appreciate you mentioning the infamous sun-sentinel article. It certainly fired things up in here for awhile.
Hi Wxhatt: welcome. there is a weather chatroom if you look at the top right of your screen. The trouble is that if a bunch of people are posting at once it just flies by and you can't read everything.
Dr. Masters, how hybrid would you say that Tammy was as she made landfall? A dry slot is not very characteristic of tropical systems, and on the satellite she looks more like a MCC than a storm system.
Cripes this damn feeder band is getting worse!
Also want to say how much I admire Diane Masters for her work in the Katrina zone!
246. P682
In light of the stories that Katrina wasn't as powerful as first thought, I think that more and more information will eventually surface that the levee failures in NO were a result of poor design built on soil that was ever shifting with time. Seems that the company building the levee's sued the Army Corps of Engineers on this very issue but lost in an administrative law hearing.
Go figure...
The skidaway buoy over 100 miles east of Savannah is reporting sustained winds of 41 kts! (47 mph)
Hi CGables and all others! We were able to return to our house to live in it 2 months after Charley. Lots of repairs went on and on. We're in Cape Coral, so we were much better off than folks up in Punta Gorda-Port Charlotte.

This is true that the tools to track and communicate weather of all kinds, have only recently gotten so much better, but we all expect "instant" everything. I was reading a few weeks ago, and then a few days ago, when you-all were talking about watching the Ants, and other animals. That is a tool, too.

And I like <>Sparky's direct experience: Dog gone, windy.

This is the first Blog i've ever posted to.
This feeder band is getting worse! Since we have blown past 15 inches, do I hear 20?!
Thanks CoconutCreekFLA,

I see what you mean, I'll probably just stick to this Blog. I am really addicted already! ;-)
Hey does anyone have the link to the GFS animation...
I usually pick it up here:

Link
I think we might get to Gamma. Maybe even Delta.

Why? In 2003, there were actually two tropical storms that developed in DECEMBER!
Good evening everyone.
It's Gamma from SEFla (Broward County). I probably know some of you locals that are posting. Possibly work with some of you at a large American Corporation...

Anyway, haven't posted since Monday; however, I do try to read what is going on when I get a chance. Sometimes I take a look when I get a chance at work..ops.but I have never posted anything from work.

Looks on radar that SE Fla is getting ready to get some serious rain from Stan Jr...by the way, is that every going to be designated as a TD? or TS?

Can't stay on here long, got to get up early. will check this blog one more time i the next 30 minutes.
Thank you all, especially the post from Dr Masters, for keeping up on this and I do enjoy reading it when I get a chance. I discovered Underweather in 1999 while I was watching Irene come across S Fla. Been a Hurricane Season Fan ever since. Just discovered this blog this summer.

Keept it up, enjoy your comments.
Thank ya =)
Hey Pensacola22,

I just checked the 18Z run of the GFS, and it looks like it has Tammy looping back into the Gulf now and merging with the Son of Stan.

Maybe they'll have babies LOL!
See you guys later... Bye Coconut!! See ya tomorrow!!
LOL Wxhatt! See ya later...
Your Welcome Pensc,

BTW, I used to live in Panama City Beach '96 - '99 but didn't get to ride out any storms there at the time.
any thoughts on how long the rain from Stan Jr. will last in southeast Florida? Looks like it might begin later tonight. Any thoughts on the weekend being a washout?
wxhatt do oyu have a link for the runs on both storms?
This link shows both storms merging between 12 and 36 hrs. on the 18Z run. You can see Tammy moving south off of the Panama City Beach area and "Son of Stan" coming north and then they merge there in the north east Gulf.

Link
wx, ::G:: color me dumb, where do I click on that link to see this marriage made in the GULF...
Now, THIS I can understand!!! LOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A TROPICAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE COMING NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA.
THIS IS ON THE DIVERGENT EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLOSER TO HOME...RADARS ARE SHOWING AN ASSOCIATED
LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD THE KEYS AND MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME CONVERGENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM RURAL BROWARD COUNTY THROUGH JUPITER INLET...TRANSLATING NORTH.
HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS WILL BE THE MAIN
AREAS TO BE IMPACTED OVERNIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH MOVES
NORTH.

LATEST GFS AND EARLY NOGAPS CONTINUE SHOW THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY. A WET PATTERN LAYS AHEAD.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARINE...SOUTH FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS HOLDING. GUSTY WINDS MAY BE AN
ISSUE NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. FORECAST COVERS THIS...NO CHANGES PLANNED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR CWA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER NE GULF OF MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING S
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ADVECTS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS HAVE DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
TAPER OFF SOME AROUND SUNSET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SECOND
LOW/VORT MAX NEAR THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND 12Z
MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAME DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER OR JUST N OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE IT SLOWLY N-NE OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTREME W CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD N ACROSS THE SE
GULF AND APPROACH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. BIGGEST THREAT
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL LIKELY COMMENCE EARLY THU
AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF FRI AS THE SFC LOW MOVES N OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND THE UPPER VORT MAX LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE CWA. AS
A RESULT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AND MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE FRI NIGHT OR EVEN
SATURDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE. THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND SHOT
OF PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT E.

.EXTENDED...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THE PENINSULA ON SAT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
DRIER AIR N OF THE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CWA ON SUN...WITH
POPS LOWERING TO CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER.

Can read this too... ::G::
ABNT20 KNHC 060221
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
RATHER EXTENSIVE BUT IS DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD IS WELL ORGANIZED
AND IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.-

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
Hi CGables,

No problem, it's not you at all, it took me a few to figure it out. Using the loop is too much waiting and won't zero you in on the merge, so you'll have to look under the "10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn" column, and choose each time
frame at 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 hrs.

Hope this helps ;-)
Hello All,

Still holding out here in Baton Rouge where I think everyone is starting to realize that our normal has truly been wiped away for good.

As a weather novice (or ignoramus, whichever you prefer) I'm confused about Katrina being a Category 1 in Mississippi. When I'm related to people that live ~70 miles inland (Hattiesburg) and experienced an organized eyewall with Category 1 winds, how can it be that the storm maintained strength all that way? And, how can I tell those people from Bay St. Louis to Pascagoula living on their slabs that there are 4 more degrees of bad waiting for them out there one day. Help me with this one. How in the world could Katrina be a Cat 1?
wx, thanks. That is truly a bizarro scenario!!!
Well, in the spirit of natural racehorses...nevermind.

Night.
Yep, but if it travels inland like it depicts, rather than jump FL Peninsula and scoot up the coast like the 2pm BAMM originally showed, then it won't have a chance to develope as much up the east coast.

You don't need any help with that one RedStick. Anyone that says Katrina was a Cat 1 is full of sh**. I just don't know any better way to put it.
damn. lead story is the football players that got hit by lightning in Coconut Creek. One player is dead. They were leaving the field when hit.
Is everyone here in their 20s?
For those who have an interest in the issues raised in the article that Skypony linked to, regarding Senator Santorum's efforts to change the government role in forecasting, I have read quite a bit about it. Full disclosure note: I have campaigned for Senator Santorum in the past and graduated from Penn State, the alma mater of AccuWeather's founders, so yes, I do have some biases. That being said, here are some of the basics as I understand them.

AccuWeather, among other privately owned weather services, are supporting an effort by Senator Santorum to redefine the role of the government weather services. The effort is to turn the government's role in weather to data collection and dissemination, not forecasting. The view of the private services is that because the government is the primary source of data for all forecasting, the government forecasters have a distinct advantage over the private forecasting services, but do not have the free market pressures to compete fairly with them, because the government forecasters are paid for by taxpayers. The view of the private services is that the government should only provide the data to the public, and let the private services duke it out in the free market - resulting in the best forecasters rising to the top.

To tell the truth, I am not sure of the specific arguments against the effort by Senator Santorum. I would be interested to hear about any arguments that oppose his efforts, because I am genuinely interested in it. My personal feeling is that I generally prefer any situation where the government gets out of anything that the private sector can do better, but I am not entirely sure that this is the case here.

try 52... ::G:: you make me feel like a Grannie!!!
19 1/2 here. Yourself Wannabe?
Geezer
Gosh,

You must be young since you believe only people in their 20s use the word sh**.
I went out again at 10 p.m. and the character of the storm completely changed. Strong wind was the main characteristic, and the surge was not allowed to subside, and was around 3 or 3 1/2 feet. The water was a little lower than in Jeanne or Frances but the waves were bigger and were breaking over the pier in spectacular fashion.
36 here, Mike who sometimes posts under my handle is 41.
Most of my friends say don't trust a fart.
noel, fact of matter is that gov't does it better b/c they're the only ones who've been doing it so long. For decades meteorology was the unwanted step-child of the sciences. only within the past decade/decade and a half has it become *sexy* and that probably has alot to do with the success of TWC.
I don't know whether it's right or wrong, but I don't see why the average citizen should suddenly have to cough up monies for such vital information. I suppose if there are real specialty items for a specific industry or something, agri, fishing, breeding, something like that, depending on very specific weather conditions... then for a specialized product one might have to pay a premium, but our daiy NWS? I kind of have a problem, and maybe it's simply b/c we are so entrenched in this system and how well it works so far...
Is that another swirl trying to spin up on the coast of the Bay of Campeche? This is getting complicated.
Even at my young age I have learned that also. Its like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are going to get.
definition of a fart = full of s*** and blowing off lots of hot air...
GACK!!! Is this gonna get someone reporting me as obscene??? I didn't start this thread, honest!!!
local guy says the swirl midATL probably will head more northerly than anywhere should it develop. Any thoughts?
http://skeetobiteweather.com/index.asp
shows some models of midATL as well as Yucatan area.
Am putting pups out for last constitutional and me to beddie-bye... catch you all tomorrow with the next chapter in the saga of son of stan or whoever!
It looks like the circulation is a little southwest of the flare up in the BOC. Maybe that is the remnants a lot of models were showing move back into the Gulf of Mexico.
You can see the spin on the Foater 1 Visible.
Floater
cgables

You have some good points, but the question I have is - do the gov't services actually do a better job? I'm not saying they don't, but do we have any objective evidence to show it? My guess is that in different areas of forecasting, say long range, or winter storms or tropical storms, or marine forecasts, there are various private and gov't forecasters that do better or worse than others.

As for your concern about the public having to pay for their forecasts all of a sudden, that wouldn't happen. We already get AccuWeather, TWC and other private sources providing their own forecasts to the public through radio, tv, print, internet, etc. That wouldn't change. We don't have to pay for those now, and there is no reason we would have to afterwards. There will always be economic value to those news outlets providing weather forecasts (the forecasts help the news outlet gain viewers/listeners, and that sells advertising), and many already use the private forecasting services anyway.
Scaldisnoel ~I appreciate your persective & imput. I followed it up a little. Seems a bill is in the works to privitize the info flowing from the NWS to the public. Like NWS wouldn't to do daily outlook, things commercial stations could do. There would be no NWS website (gasp~ public can't acsess freely our models?) 1 thing said the bill was vauge & with out mention either way of how forcasts of hurricanes & storms would be handled. Bill Nelson is supposed to be against this & sits in the commitee with first chance to kill the bill. Keep in mind all this was gathered from news on the net. ~ I'll get to bill's site when I get there. There had been no mention after the live cast (could have missed it) that Dr Masters linked, thought all was well til this appeared.

lol~ I don't have time to chat much, but if I have time I try to throw somethin in the pot, this time I might a sturred it up a little.

Dr Masters~Thanks for the reply! And thanks more for following up on the matter, good sources are hard to come by.
Not to belabor the discussion about privatizing forecasting, but as I've searched for articles on the issue, one of the arguments that I've seen against privatizing forecasting is that the government would be providing the private news services with free data at taxpayers expense - which makes providing data a de facto "corporate welfare". I think that this is a red herring. We as taxpayers are already paying for the data to go to the private services, regardless of whether the gov't does any forecasting. The real question is, do we need to pay the government to do something that the private sector already does?
Skyepony,

Thanks for the updated info on what Senate committee hurdles the initiative is facing right now. I'll be interested to see any more details you uncover. Being a political junkie, as well as a weather nut, I am very fascinated by the whole issue.
There are several governmental agencies that rely on the NWS for decisions to protect government property. Moving military aircraft out of harms way is one example along with fuel cost and travel allowances, etc. Would the government want to rely on a private weather company and what liabilities would a private weather company have? Would the government contract out these services and would it go to the lowest bidder? I don't foresee the NWS getting out of the forecasting business.
Yes, but can we be sure that privatized weather could be as objective as the not-for-profit NOAA? It would have to be a private non-profit organiztion.

Weather data is valuable information that can be use for daily life. It should be free.
We the amateur forecasters(should I say WUBA), enjoy the raw data, some feed on it to get through the day, we want every vortex report & want to know where the plane is & how long will it take to get there. We, at times, want to watch every wobble, in any color, style, or presintation we please at any time we want. Have you been here for a critical blackout period? If for any reason this bill could impeed on our enjoyment of our red harring, somethings got to be done. If this turns out where the only info I get is from the tv stations that own the amusements parks & other outdoor intrests in the area, then what? I gotta subcride to cable, still could I watch every wobble? We need more info.

Poof for the night
privitizing weather forecasting is one of thw worst ideas I've ever heard. We should be moving in the opposite direction - there should be less prvitation of weather data. Whoever decided that privitation of anything and everything was a good idea? Lets think for a moment about the numerous disasters that have follwed privitation of many indistries. Is weather information and forecasting worth that risk - I for one say no f'in way.
Is everyone on this blog in their teens?
toddler
Is that low SW of the blowup in the BOC an upper level low or a surface low? Wondering if the surface low of Stan got hung up next to the mountains and the mid to upper continued across to the Pacific.
Wait~ a good example ABC owns both our local news channel 9 & Disney. Guess what the weather is forcated for at the theme park this weekend, beautiful & cooler for the holiday weekend, as near always.

K I'll tell ya'll 33.
Guess none of the weather experts are taking questions tonight.
I think that the idea of privatizing certain aspects of weather forecasting ends up in the same political arguments that are brought up any time privatizing a current government function becomes a point of discussion. I don't really have any interest in going any deeper into that here. I just want to understand what the proposal is, and what functions of government are actually being considered for privatization. If anyone has more details, I would be interested to hear about them.
Dang stan jr gonna get flung up the fl east coast or out to the Atlantic. Is Tammy gettin pulled into, rapped around the ull in gulf?
realy poof
I think it was Coco Ck that recently said safest place in Fl was Jax. I moved from Miami to o'town in '90, and until Charley, Frances and Jeanne last year i was gettin pretty darn smug about dodgin all the bullets. Smug smirk now all gone:(
First I heard of it tonight but without knowing all the details I find it scary for the reasons I listed above on my earlier post at 3:53.
I WAS SO FRUSTRATED EARLIER TODAY! I was only able to get on this site once today, but could get to all other sites. I thought there would be a lot of upset people in SEFL. I am curious to what Son of Stan is doing? It has taken me an hour to catch up w/ the posts and now it is already time for bed. :( Dr. Masters your blog and insite keeps me sane during hurricane season. I am worse than my husband with football on! lol
FYI... lightning and football fields. I was a high school coach for 8 years in Tampa, and we have no lightning detection devices. We are told to go indoors if you can see lightning, and then have to wait thirty minutes to go back outside from last strike. It used to be that we counted the time from strike to thunder, but I think that was too risky. It is such a shame what happened tonight, especially since there was no warning.
Better question, what are the benefits of privitation? Fancy graphics - same info different package, some big media corp makes a few cents extra per share????? Why should the average middle class American think he/she might benefit from this scheme?
The spin over Mexico just sw of the Bay of Campeche blob is at the mid level. That blob is a bit interesting because it has persisted for several hours and there is an anticyclone on top of it, but I don't yet see any data that would indicate a surface spin there. The visible satllite tomorrow should help.

I will be 31 years old in 4 days.
I thought I saw it earlier today on the visible. Do you think it is a remnant of Stan? The NOGAPS and GFDL were showing a remnant moving back into the BOC and then they dropped it later. Was it dropped because the input data assumed all the remnants of Stan had moved across into the Pacific. I know you can't answer all these questions but looking for more experienced insight.
Weatherwannabe,

The basic argument for privatization is that as taxpayers, we aren't paying the government to duplicate something that the private sector already provides. The proposal as I understand it is that the government would only be involved in providing the data, not the forecasts. The government has the resources and data - satellites, weather stations, etc. - that no private company could ever have the money to do. The one thing that the government has that the private sector also has, is forecasting ability. The question is - do we NEED the government to do the forecasting?

My guess is that all of us already use many different sources for our information, both government and private.
been away from the blog, which is the only accurate info around...what about the stuff my local station was talking up tonite...below cuba.??
Is privitisation a good idea? Go to UK and get on a train, or to Canada and look at the filth in the airport (only two I have seen for myself are Toronto and Ottawa). When UK trains were gov't run they were clean, safe, reasonably priced and ON TIME. Not any of that is true now.
If we did decide to privatize weather, why not do the same for fire and police departments, the military, air traffic control, heck why even have a govt at all. The system seems to be working fine. I can't see any reason to change except for the greed of a few. I have a hunch that in the future we will see more socialisitic ideals creep into the good ole US of A - it's impossible to maintain a purely capitalistic society with a great disaprity between the 'haves' and the 'have nots' - and in these last few years the pendulum has swung disparingly in favor of the 'haves'. I only hope the balancing reaction doesn't take us too fat to the left, but privitation of weather is very unlikely in this rapdidly changing political climate.
The actual question is do you want local, state, and other federal agencies calling up Accuweather for forecasts to assist in their decision to move billions of dollars worth of assets into or out of harms way. What if we get Joe's Backyard Forecasts as the lowest bidder for those forecast services? Scary.
Very good point FLP. But, the more private companies that are invloved the easier it is for politicians to do "favors" to get contributions. It is a sick system that needs change. Pork and contributions are so closely tied.
fflattiger,

Where do the Canadians and Brits with the dirty privatized airports and trains go when they need the best medical care right away - to the US, where the private sector provides the cutting edge technology that saves lives. My point is this, when it comes to competition and technology, the private sector provides the best and most timely solutions (or at least better and faster than the gov't in the long run).
scaldisnoel where do Americans go when they need affordable meds? Not to accept your contention that American medicine is the best in the world - we are rapidly losing our edge to countries that have mamaged to keep religion out of their labs.
scaldisnoel,
I admit not knowing all the particulars of this proposal, but from the gist of what I've read I am in complete agreement w/ sentiments of fellow weather enthusiasts cgcorralgablesgal, Skyepony, FLApanhandle and WillJax.

When we are given forecasts by NOAA, NWS, NHC, HPC, we are hearing a unified voice, unadulterated interpretation of data with a standard that has been for years, consistent day after day. I have serious doubts that the private sector, in competion with one another "to be you're most trusted meteorologist" can provide that standard. I could visualize scenarios of conflicting information leading to chaos.

And I don't understand the point if our governmental agencies will still be doing all the hard work involved in collecting and disseminating the data, HOW MUCH WILL WE SAVE if we cut out their forecasts?

I can think of a helluva lot of other ways of reducing wasteful spending. It kind of reminds me of earlier suggestions such as eliminating aircraft reconnaissance flights into hurricanes since we now have satellites. Or the brilliant idea that some politicians had a few years of eliminating the USGS because it had outlived it's usefulness, and besides private geologists could provide all the needed information. Yeah, right....

The weather man in Tampa just said it was going to be wet. Nothing about a possible Son of Stan!?!?
I can't get my weather from the local stations anymore. Y'all have spoiled me. I want up to the date tropical weather discussions/forecasts. Anyone going to take a guess at what is going to happen in the gulf over the next two days and what we can expect in Tampa?
The mid-level spin over Mexico is definitely a remnant of Stan, one of many remnant pieces apparently. Yesterday some models suggested a piece of Stan's energy would move back over the Bay of Campeche and reform into a tropical cyclone. However, once the big piece of energy shot eastward across the Yucatan today(now nearing Florida) I figured that was the energy the models were grabbing onto and thus there would no longer be anything reforming in the BOC. We'll just have to see what the situation looks like tomorrow. The whole tropical situation is very complex and will continue to be for the next week.
Scaldi,

There are many success stories where the private sector does things much better than the government. Medical care is the best because individuals are paying money for those services. Individual consumption drives how well a product or service can become. Computer technology would be another example of individual consumption driving the quality of the product or service. Weather forecasting would not fall into that category.
ROFLMAO....Sorry but that's what i have to do when I now read statements that say Katrina might have only been a Cat 1 in Mississippi, I agree that it is in the realm of possibillity for Katrina to maybe have been a Cat3 in LA although i tend to doubt it,but i see NO way of Katrina only being a Cat 1 in MS with the extensive damage it caused there, even old time locals say the damage and flood waters were worse with Katrina then with Camille back in 1969,I think its just a few folks making these statements for no other reason but to ramp up controversy...
To those who dismiss the idea of leaving forecasting to the private sector, let me ask you a question. Do you use any private sector forecasts when you are trying to find out about tropical systems? If you do, apparently they are providing you with valuable information. If the government stopped doing forecasting, and there was something valuable that went missing because the private sector didn't already provide it, don't you think that the private sector companies would jump in to fill that void so that they could make money on it?
I'm located in "Georgetown", south savannah, near King George and Rt 204. I was impressed by how uncomfortably cold and stinging the rain felt about an hour ago. And about a half hour ago, I heard a really strong wind gust. When I left work at 5pm est, my car hydroplaned a bit and there were short power outages in neighborhoods near Savannah Mall. Any input here, does anyone think driving at 9 am will be a hassle?
Scaldis,
My belief is that in this case, the government is our best bet for the service. We can go to accuweather and others for differing views and opinions, but NOAA, NHC et al give us a wealth of solid information to a consistent and dependable standard. I believe that privitisation would be a disasterfo all of us, but would make the folks at accuweather lots of money.
Private companies have a poor track record when it comes to guarding the public interests. Which begs the question, would private companies be liable for faulty forecasts that caused economic harm - that would be interesting.
Wannabe,

First it is class warfare. Then medical research using embryos. Can't you make an arguement without politicizing it? I am going on record here, I agree with Wannabe about privatizing forecasting but for different reasons.
I'd hate to see that lawsuit.
FLP - I am not sure I am following you. These are poltical issues and these are political times. Maybe I am just exposed to it more than others on the blog.
FLP,

Weather forecasting already falls into that category. The private sector, TWC, AccuWeather, etc. are providing products that compete with the gov't forecasts, and people are paying for them. Just think of how radio stations pay for the forecasts they provide. Weather forecasts may be one of the most paid for services that media outlets provide. We as consumers pay for that when we buy the products and services of their advertisers. That surely drives the competition among the various services.
cTampa - NOLA vs Accuweather for $20 billion in damages. Ouch.
savannahga- wish I could help you. Good luck tomorrow morning! Good night all. See you tomorrow.
The whole thing with Katrina's category is all about the actual speed of the wind at the surface when it came ashore. There is no doubt at all that Katrina had a cat 5 surge, but the Saffir-Simpson scale is completely based on surface wind. Katrina was slowly weakening when it hit and it is known that in weakening hurricanes the strongest wind rises above the surface. This is the kind of stuff that has guys like Dr. Masters and Steve Gregory wanting a new rating system that takes several things into consideration unlike the old Saffir-Simpson scale.
Thanks Hawkeye
Farmer Fred vs Channel 8 for $4 million in lost crops - uh oh.
Yeah, i'd like to see them get some type of insurance policy to cover that!
thank you ctampa
goodnight all
Wannabe,

When the government forecasters predicted Rita to hit Houston, that cost the Houston economy millions. Should the businesses in Houston be allowed to sue the NHC for their faulty forecast?
hawk- Is there a way to change the scale to include these changes?
scaldisnoel, you can't sue the govt for taht anymor than you can sue for a flat tire caused by a pot hole in a city street.
Weatherwannabe,

That is exactly my point. If the government can't be sued for a bad forecast, why should it be any different for the private sector?
However, if I fail to clear MY driveway of ice and you slip and fall you can sue ME as a private citizen. That's just the way good old tort law works. Which again begs the question, would accuweather be liable for faulty forecasts? More speficially, would Accuweather find itself definding itself against negligence lawsuits for incorrect forecasts?
scald...no offense. But it is the USA. You can sue for spilling hot coffee on yourself.
scaldisnoel, provate cos are sued everyday for negligence. Slip and fall on Main Street and try to sue teh city (you'll lose) - slip and fall in Wal MArt and you might win.
Scaldi,

It is not the same. There is not a direct feedback as to the worth of the service or goods. I may have bought the product for the good music the media outlet provides not the forecast. If Dell builds a much faster computer with excellent software that anyone can use then sells will skyrocket and that success will drive the quality of other manufacturers products if they are to be successful. Maybe I am missing it but I just don't see it with forecasting.
You could probably do it with a disclaimer...lol Do not rely on this as an accurate statement.
cTampa - LOL
FLP,

I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I think that there IS direct feedback. Every time we choose to listen to a forecast on a specific radio station, or go to a specific website, we are choosing the one that we view as the most accurate information provided in the most useful format. That drives the ratings, and the advertizing dollars. Those forecasters that provide the best product in the best format will win out and those that don't will change or disappear.
The hurricane experts... National Hurricane Center, etc., I'm sure could devise a new rating system if they wanted to. I have not heard of any plan to do such a thing.
Hawkeye,

The format I suggested in some posts a few days ago is as follows:

Use the pressure as the baseline for the Category. If there is substantial evidence to the contrary (recon wind data, radar estimates, storm surge, etc.) make adjustments to the Category. Obviously, the more variables you include, the less consistent and objective it becomes. It seems however, from what I've noticed, that the pressure is a more accurate predictor of storm damage than measured sustained winds.
Wannabe,

There have always been political times. It is not new to this era. You have a tendency to throw your political jabs in for whatever cause in on your mind at that time. I try not to give mine and I prefer not to hear others unless I ask them for it. I enjoy your inputs but without the politics. I could share mine with you but I don't think you would prefer to hear mine either. I hope you don't take this as an insult because I am trying to explain in a way that won't offend you. Thanks.
scaldisnoel, to be honest with you, without some sweeping changes to tort law I can't see how a private company could survive mkaing weather forecasts. I would guess that private forecast liability is limited becuase the NWS is considered THE forecast and all private information is merely supplemental. If the private sector took over all forecasting everyone from private pilote to shipping woold rely on those forecasts alone and liability should be unlimited for neligence. Just the volume of lawsuits alone could put the industry into bankruptcy. And if they want immunity from liability I don't just say 'no' but 'hell no'. Just go back a few years to to the Savings and Loan privitation to see the disasters that mixing profit with public interests cause - thank goodness those jerks could be held responsible.
Sounds good Scaldi. We are definitely in different corners on this one.
FLPanhandle I can't do that - politics are a major part of my occupation and life. I can't remove it from my expression of opinions anymore than I can walk without a leg.
Weatherwannabe,

I'll just agree to disagree and call it a night. I'm way past bedtime. Must get up for work in 3 1/2 hours.
scaldisnoel, goodnight.
Tammy went inland several hours ago, but there sure have been some real nasty storms continuing to develop offshore. The coastal areas, especially in Georgia, have received quite a bit of rain so far, but they are lucky they have managed to avoid the offshore stuff. Radar says 15-20 inches of rain has fallen over the water with the training storms.

Ok, I have to wake up early tomorrow so I need to hit the sack. G'nite.
scaldisnoel,
Then again, I wasn't aware that private forecasting firms were being denied profitability by having to compete against the "monopolistic" NWS. They all seem to be making money by offering "enhanced" services. What's the problem?

I'm still awaiting an answer on how much taxpayers are going to save by cutting out only the NWS forecasting. I bet very little since the greater burden lies in collecting the data.

I haven't heard one response from us here that supports the proposal.
Copy all these responses from us and take them to your management. We are all taxpayers here and it's a service we'll gladly continue to support.

And you can go to sleep tonite confident that our politicians will hear from us on the matter. I guess I should thank you for bringing the issue up for those of us who missed it earlier, such as myself.

Just saw your reply to Hawkeyewx...now there's something we agree on!
Wannabe,

Both Parties get their bases and a good majority of the public spun up in between 2 year election cycles for issues real or imagined just to get in power. It is disgusting that they keep the public (me included) in a constant state of turmoil for their own purposes. This is normally a nice escape from that turmoil. Please try walking with just one leg for my sake? Thanks.
Sorry Doc - this Admin is just that bad.
Just one last post before bed (library is closed until noon)
At our house, we received 17.29" rain by midnight from Tammy and the onshore flow before Tammy, with 6.78" on Oct 4th and 7.94" on Oct 5th. On the island, the water has tended to drain off fairly quickly, and there are lots of small branches /twigs down and some larger branches down, but no major damage.
In mainland Glynn County it is another story. One trailer park with 40 trailers has been flooded and the trailers immersed deep in standing water. Those trailers will be lost. Two areas have had paths where trees were blown down either by straight line winds or tornadoes. Spur 29 and jetport road are closed.

Light showers now but wind is still pretty frisky. Eyeing with some concern the large, wide, HEAVY feeder band offshore from JAX to Daytona Beach. If it shifts to us, it could bring us to over 20" easily.
nite all.
it won't happen. all the private companies use the nws thats the point. all data collected all forcasr made are just rehashes of the nws. the nws flies the planes in the stroms, they release the ballons they own the satelites, theres a big missconception on what the nws vs say twc. this debate ismute as what accuweather and twc do is totally different than the nws. the nws is designed to collect data and issue forcasts and warnings for the local govt of each zone. when they issue a tornado warning its a public address. accuweather and twc do not issue advisories for the public. nws falls under the public safety division and nws will always be there. they control alot of the radar and tools all otehr services use. they are the real deal while all the other services are just hollywood versions of what they do. thats why the disscussion is mute. what the nws falls inline with homelandsecurity oif u will. they provide all the leg work and have a budget no private company could afford with out charging us to find out there is a tornado warning. its why we pay taxes. we pay taxes so our govt local, state, federal does a job to protect us. next we will be saying we should have private companies to police our streets as they might do it betetr. but the difference is the police would do all the work and the company get the credit and wqhen u call 911 u ahve to pay a fee. lol come on guys. its a crappy bill that will never get passed, just like the bill to get rid of the penny they try to pass every year. it will never happen so let it go
It is unfortunate that KSSI did not report from 1 am on Oct 4th to 2 p.m. on Oct 5th. Our weather records go back to 1948, and the missing 9+ inches that fell during that time would have established the following records:

The old record for wettest Oct, 13.70" has been shattered.
The first time 2 consecutive days of 6 inches or more of rain.
Given the heavy thunderstorms still offshore, the possibility of the Son of Stan moving this way, and the weather events of the rest of the month to come, the fall of the record for the wettest month, 21.19", set September 1962, appears likely.

I don't know if that data can be discovered, but if it is not, the accuracy of the rainfall records here will be comprimised.
st, the site was down but not the weatehr collecting. they collect weather from a vairiety of stations all over the area. trust me no data was lost, u just can;t accessit right now
Lefty, I have to say that if you had been on the beach with me you probably would not have been impressed, except perhaps but they extraordinairly heavy rain. I went twice, around 8 p.m. and then around 10 p.m to see the high tide. Sustained winds at times hit 40, with gusts to 50. Waves on my second trip were very high, higher than when Jeanne and Frances passed to the south last year. I estimate the surge was between 3 and 3 1/2 feet.
Wannabe,

You must be an agent for one of the parties. You even stated that politics was a major part of your occupation. What benefit will you gain from pushing your party's agenda on a weather blog? Surely you will benefit financially somehow. It appears that you are doing exactly what you despise, gaining financially at the expense of others. Why don't you take your views to a political blog. People want to talk weather here not politics. I believe we need a political button along with the spam and obscene.
Well I have to say the discussion on who should be given the task of forecasting has been interesting.

And deciding on this issue is certainly easier than one thing....
FORECASTING!!!

Time for this 52 year old codger to snooze out as well. Good nite all...
st, i get excited over a rain shower lol. i can;t wait to get some rain up here. will arte going to get tons of rain from now thru this weekend
While I do not agree with getting rid of the NWS, there would no doubt be significant advancements made if there was competition. And you should never rely on the Government to protect you. To say something works better because the Feds run it is ridiculous. You would be hard pressed to find an efficient Government agency.
It was beautiful outside. The rain and the wind driven spray made the visibility at the beach 1/4 mile or less, shrouding everything. There were occasional flashes of lightning (sheet lighting, never saw a bolt) but I hear no thunder. With the visibility very low, I think there must have been a lot of lightning around, but could only see what was very close.
I hope that band offshore NE FL will ride up and hit the coast to the north of us. Looking at it move, I just can't tell.
vortextrance

its a mute issue. every one depends on the govt to protect you. police, emt, military. so ur saying we should privitise the military to make it better. trust weatheer forcasting is like police and millitary. ur job depends on you being the best u can be to save lives and protect the public. this is a mute issue and will never happen. all the weather stations the nws run do jobs no private company could afford to do for free. they would charge u to find out its raining come on man. think about it for a min and how stupid it sounds. the nws is a top notch agency and does everything at the forefront. private companies can not make predicting any better. u guys are nuts. they are in the same department as the military. would u privitise ur army and have to pay and extra fee to them to protect u from an invading army, or what about the police. charge u 20 bucks to get an intruder. we poay taxes so certain things are taken care of and one is public safety. like it or not its the govt job to protect us and while not perfect privtising it would just cost us more money as companies are out to make money. so u would have to pay more to get a service u get now for pennies from ur income tax. pennies. think about the 5 bucks we pay wu. tahts more than we personally pay the nws for the same data
Son of Stan will have name today. It looks like circulation is tighting up. Headed for Miami right now.
and where do u guys get thwere would be advancement, like the nws is not trying to forcast as good as possible right now. so if we let accuweather run it we would have a 10 day cone by now. come on man. we aint talking computers we talking weather forcasting. it can only get so good till the private sector improves its equipments and computers. u need to understand that private sectors make the radar, the satelites, the planes, the computers and they are working to improve the tools but the purpose of forcasting weather comes down to the nws and always has and always will. u guys are completely crazy.
son of stan is no where near orginised. it probly wont develop till its right near the coast like tammy iof at all. there is no convection over the area of lowest pressure . it lokks quite poor actually
FLP thanks for your comment on bringing politics to this site. THIS IS A WEATHER BLOG. I'm a bit concerned with Stan's offspring, I see a LOT of water coming down. I'm not the hardest hit by it in LW as I first thought with Tammy. Any comments on the 'Dragon'-looking 10N 40W circling? It seems to go westward and developing. I bet it'll become Stan real soon.
Lefty, I said I would not get rid of the NWS. I agree it is a mute point because of the money issue. But yes I do believe if you could get rich predicting weather there would be more advancements made.
advacnement like what? we are on the fore front of our abilities and we are not lagging behind. explain to me what advancement would be made by the private sector that the govt is not doing now. thats like saying if we privitised the military we would have better advancements. come on man
Of course the NWS does the best they can do, and I would never get rid of it. And I might be crazy, but its better than ignorant.
and they do get rich predicting the weather. we clal them twc, accuwaether and looks most of us paid wu 5 bucks. think how much money dr.masters has made form this site he helped form. lost of people are getting paid rehashing what the nws says and does. they do all the reaserch they do all the leg work. but than u also need to look at where the advancements come from. not twc and accuweather but from colleges. thats where the reaserch takes place. u guys have a twisted view on how this works. private companies will not spend any more moeny than they have to. its called the bottom line. so schools do the reaserch and help with advancement. thats why we have good data from fsu, university of coloroda, university of wisconsin. private companies would do nothing to help the advancement but spend money on making it look better. thats the point. remebr when seat belts were first put into cars. u had to pay extra if u wanted them. thats private companies lookign at the bottom line.
where do u think doplar radar coame from. college reaserch, private companies will do it as cheapand easy as they can. thats the point. thats why cars only last 4-5 years these days. they make stuff as cheap as possible. we are not buying goods. if it was technology than u would want to push the envelope and spend the money as a private company, but the amount of money it would cost a private company to do anything close to tghe nws or make it better would not be spent why, casue then they would not make a profit. they would be bankrupt.
There is a long way to go. There are so many unknown variables in forecasting. You act like forecasts are always right. And I am not being critical of the National Weather Service. Lefty I do not want to disband the Government. I realize there are essential services they must provide. I was only trying to make the point that competition always leads to improvements.
noaa budget is 3.7billion this year lol. tell me what company is going to pay 3.7 billion just to do what noaa does and still spend money to make advancements lol. that says it all right there.
cars only last 4 or 5 years these days. Actually your right. More people die every year car wrecks than murder, storms, our foreign invaders. So using your logic we should create the National Car Service.Since I am sure the government would make the cars safer, cheaper, and more fuel efficient.
but ur not selling a good. u can not compete with the weather. so 2 companys say it will be sunny tommorow. wheres the competition. now if u want to talk competition u have a 5.0 ghz computer vs a 6.7 ghz. thats competituion. we will never be 100 eprcent correct in weather forcasting. never. we can get close but thats it. no competition there. now if they could control qweather than u would have competition. explain to me where the competition would be or how would u have competition on forcasting the weather. that is the worst statement i have ever heard. weather is not a competition its a best estimate of probable outcomes and based on recorded data and currents. u can;t change that. wow yall really goign off tonight lol
Cold front moving into the Texas hill country.
vortextrance

no we bult a couple agencies to police the cars and protect us. ntsb, epa, better bussiness burea. thats why a car must have a certain safety requirments and fuel efficency.
3.7 billion is the problem. I wonder who oversees all that money.
I won't be in favor of privatizing the weather service until the companies spend the money and time to build and launch their own weather satellites and design, create, and test their own computer weather models. The computer models we use have been created by our government-employed meteorologists and computer scientists, as well as bythe governments of Canada, UK and the European Union, and I would not be surpised if some of the models we use were created by the Japanese meteorological agency. Companies like Accuweather want to earn the money to be made distributing and selling weather data. But they are NOT willing to invest the money it takes to build and launch weather satellites, maintain all the observation sites we get readings from, and create the computer models we see and use.
and local goverments set sped limits to beter police the roads. ur comparng apple to oranges. t he key is public safety. public safety is the key goal of noaa. that is left in the hands of the govt. thats why our poolice are not private and our military is not private.

sp usoing ur logic we should let the companies police our streets and fight our wars
noaa is a part of the doc(department of commerce), whos budget is 6.0 billions. 3.7 goes to noaa and noaa oversees nws, nhc, nvirpmental prediction cenetr as well as a hand full of other under agencies. noaa is so big no private company could do the job they do period. u should go to noaa.gov and read up on what they do every day and see its alot more than say ots going to rain tomm
Think of this, if Accuweather or some other company develops a computer model, do you think it will be released to the public like the way we can access the GFS, Canadian, or GFDL models we see on line? Would they be proprietary and unavailable to the public to see and use? If they created a network of weather observation sites, would we be able to look at the data the way we do now when looking at the temp, dewpoint, barometric pressure, wind etc. from our local airport? If a private company built and launched weather satellites, do you think we would be able to see the images the way we can now? Without paying hefty prices?
Wow the world must be going to end soon, for once I agree with Leftyy...LOL....
What the private companies want is the ability to make easy profits disemminating weather information, without doing all the heavy lifting required to generate the information. The computer models, the satellites, the observation sites were all created by the federal government, except for some of the models we use created by other national governments. As a taxpayer, having paid for all of this, I should have the right to observe all the weather data and forecasts I like without having to pay a private company acting as a middleman. My taxes paid for all this already.
Good point. Those are all needed agencies for oversight and setting standards to push advancement.
st if u paod a feeand u would still have ads paying for what ur seeing. companies are here to make money thats there goal, noaa is here to save lives thats there goal. which gola do u think is more important to the public


parts of noaa gave been around since 1807. nws was formed in 1870. the agencies were conbined in 1970 to form noaa. no pint arguing over it. this is a bs convo as it would never happen. they would never get rid of the nws or noaa. they do more than forcast the weather. look around there sites and u will see what they do and its way more than say its going to rain
and we haven'tgot started on some opf the other dutieslike geology, hydrology. nooa monitors rivers, volcanoes, earth quakes, fisheries and on and on and on.
Leftyy..i agree and lets not forget the great job the NWS Mets do in the field of fire WX forecasting...where Mets actually set up out in the field near large wild fires and do a great job helping the firemen....
Lefty I agree with you completely. I may have been writing unclearly (it is late) What I meant is that the companies like Accuweather just want to make money distributing data and forecasts, without having to pay the money to build the satellites, computer models and observation sites that make weather observation and prediction possible.
I thought the Son of Stan looked healthy this afternoon, but he looks more like a miscarraige now.
First of all, how the hell did we get started on this convo in the first place?

Now for my 2 cents (and no, I dont want change)
For any of you who not taken an Economics class. What the NWS is (as well as police, military, etc) is a public good. Its something that we all use, or could use, but that no one would be willing to pay for on their own. If you had the option of getting an extra $20 in your paycheck, but knowing that when you call 911 you get put at the bottom of the list, would you take the $? Its why laws force people to buy car insurace - the gov't knows that accidents are going to happen, but that everyone thinks that it wont happen to them.

As for the whole competition argument, there is money to be made in weather forecasting. The money is not on providing the most accurate projection, as some of you have stated, it is instead in creating, designing, and building the technology that is used to collect the data! Where do you think a lot of that 3.7 bill went to? Gov contacts are gold to business that deal in technology - the ones that can say, create a better or more accurate dropsonode, will be financially rewarded.

JV
StSimmons - LOL

Besides, I thought that only the female of the species could have the babies? Or are hurricanes hermaphrodites?

JV
i dunno valence lol. i got on and they were talking this crap and i wasluck what. lets talk about the weather now lol
So, about the weather . . .

Which system do you think is a)going to form first, and b)actually make something of themselves?

JV
The way Stan divided, and then the Pacific half divided again, reminds me of an amoeba :)
I vote for the mid Atlantic tropical wave.
blob in the gulf will likley be a weak depression or ts in 24 -36 hrs iof at all. wave in the atlantic should atleast get named, maybe hurricane but we will see
You know those plastic containers that grocery store cakes and stuff come in? There is no way to open one of those quietly!

Im thinking the Atlantic wave too . . . but "Son of Stan" is a little closer to home, so i'll probably be watching that one more for the time being.

And its starting to look like its not going to be IF we break the record for most names storms in a season, but BY HOW MUCH! Im placing the over under on Tropical Storm Beta.

JV
sounds goodto me vakence
Hey lefty-

Im not trying to be rude with this question, but do you have a job? I can't remember the last time I was on here and you weren't! Or maybe you just keep the same hours as I do! Or perhaps you are on here WHILE at work . . .

JV
I am going to wishcast and say the Son of Stan never really develops into anything. If it does, and gets associated with the cold front we will get buckets of rain, and we just don't need that right now! Lows, tropical or not, that approach the GA coast from the SW and go over N FL tend to start drawing in lots of moisture from the GA coastal area and give us prolonged rains.
Gamma. I dont think Son of Stan will ever get named, but I think November will be busy.
Leftyy..it will be kinda funny if we make it to a named storm Wilma...LOL thats my wifes name,and here is the kicker, she doesnt think its very funny...Rofl....
no job and i go to schoolpart time. i also am a stay at home dad.
And with that, bed.
yeah st. bed sounds good.

i got my money on hurricane micheal next year lol. thats my name and would love to chase a hurricane withmy name.
Someone took the politics out of my weather?

Great!

Thank-you!

So what is the deal with the area approaching the W coast of FLA? and what is up with the models that show another Bahama system on this page? And what is up with the area off the GA coast? No chance of a reform there? Tammy too close and too much shear due to Tammy? And if you look at the Charleston Nexrad on a 40 frame loop you will see some storms racing E while most rains are moving ENE or NE. What is up with that?
Whatever the number of storms left, the window for Major hurricanes, at least ones that threaten the US, is closing pretty quickly. We're going to be focusing on rain rates and flooding rather than pressure and wind speed.

Im also thinking its time to move out of FL. This whole sticking out into the middle of warm water stuff is for the birds. Oh wait, its not - they fly N for the Summer and Fall, smart bastards!

JV
My hubby's name is Michael as well :)
I miss read Lefty's post St. Sounded like you two were going to hook up.lmao.

No offense ya'll. Just a little late night humor.
Believe it or not, I actually had my money on Hurricane katrina for this year - I used to work with a girl by that name. Knowing her, the pafh and intensity of that storm didn't surprise me at all!

Im thinking Isaac will be a story next year - somewhere in the Carolinas. They're due for a nasty storm.

JV
good morning lefty....not much rain so far here....maybe 1- 1.5 in......
sj system near florida could for who knows. we will see tomm. system of the ga coast> uh tammy i donlt know what else u could be talking about other than an ull way out past bermuda. storms racing east, thats the circulation and the whole system is moving nw or nnw. i don;t see anything out of the ordinary on charleston radar
My names not even on the current lists right now. I have to wait for Jerry or Joaquin to be retired before they might even put it in there.

JV
You know, this page makes me wonder about the seriousness of the people who work at FEMA. At least when you go to the NOAA site, you can tell its a professional organization.

Link
Oops - when to far with the Link

JV
Bed sounds good too (no im not joining in your sexual trist Lefty and StSimmons). I think the dryer just buzzed, so im off.

Im sure i'll be on here tomorrow. Having new AC unit installed, so im stuck in the house for 6-8 hours.

JV
Ok storms racing W while most of the convection seems to be moving NW. Sorry confused myself a little. Storms moving different direction then the typical bands. And yes off the GA coast I was talking about what Tammy left behind. The blow up.
Hell I have been taken for 15 years, no trysts here :)
sj that is tammy. no reformation of anything.
and those bands just need to stay away from me! 17.29" rain from Tammy. Sheesh!

Now that I have brushed my teeth, night!
Wondering because Tammy did not seem to take that blob with her. Seems to be pretty much just sitting there. Tammy is well inland now and moving NW maybe a hair W of NW. Moving fairly quickly also.
Night St.
look at it on radar. u can see its part of the circulation. well why u ponder that i am going to bed. i been up almost 24 hrs now and i am so tired
Night Lefty.

The radar seems that most of it is just banding, but again I see these small areas in the Jax radar moving W with in the bands just to the E of that strong band.
Anyone left?

Yes, I am here, but I might be the only one left.
Hi kansas! I posted on your blog
Ah, well, off to work for me. Have a great day, everyone!
Mornin Kansas...

Just got up to check out things,,, we may be the only ones here...

How are YOU?
Life is good here, its a warm day, but they all are. Will be nice when it finally starts snowing here, and even better when it starts melting, because then it will be time to make like a leaf and get the heck out of here.
Driving to Pensacola from Sarasota tomorrow -- looks as if all will be OK.
Kansas.. How much time fo you have left in the service?
I hear Pensacola is nice this time of year. How far of a drive is that?
Kansas: Stay safe, and thanks for all you're doing to keep us safe.
Must run; lots to do for the trip!
I plan to be doing this until they won't let me do it anymore, but my current contract is up in 2011.
Kansas.. about eight hours; its 500+ miles. I was concerned that Son of Stan wanted to go along for the ride.... now it looks as if the kid needs to stay behind and be in day care. Fine by me! LOL.
Ding Dong the Tammy witch is dead (well as far as a tropical storm), but she soaked the area pretty good. Got a friend down in Brunswick, GA said he had almost 11 inches in the rain gauge and that was around 2ish last night...

Come on daytime crowd grab a coffee and filter in (pun intended)
Hey Orion!

Good morning. Just popped in but have to run and take my daughter to school. Be back later.

Stay dry!!
I really don't mean to cause the whole "privatization of weather inf" discussion to flare up again - but thought some of you may be interested in this . . . Recreation boating and aviation interests are adamantly opposed to Senator Santorum's bill. BoatUS, the largest recreational boater's organization in the US recently did a piece on it in their memeber magazines.

For boaters and pilots it's primarily a safety issue. It's standard practice for a small craft, prior to leaving, to listen to the NWS marine weather forecast. The bill would prohibit the NWS from providing this. Boaters would have to pay for a subscription service, such as to Accuweather. The concern is that most small boaters wouldn't. We're not talking about rich yacht owners here - they'd pay for the service. These are the small boats that should not be out in conditions that, as you all know, can change rapidly out on the water.

According to BoatUS, Accuweather is headquartered in Pennsylvania, the home state of the Senator who introduced this bill. The Commercial Weather Services Association is lobbying heavily for it's passage. BoatUS and Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association is lobbying heavily against it.

Interesting times.

Disclosure: I'm a small time boater and member of BoatUS.
Morning all!

Models have Tammy recurving back into the Gulf and coming right back at Jacksonville. Lots of stuff to check out this morning. And what's that model that's over the Bahamas next to Florida?!

B
Whataviewfromhere,

Well anywhere people can make a buck.. And the goverment in order to say money for other pork projects say Iraq their probably going to start doing like more fat cat corps and outsourcing to the company that can do it the cheapest.

Really say but I won't jump my soap box on fat cat corps and the money they use to lead congress around by the nose. I have a blog for that (LOL)

morning everybody! :)

conditions in myrtle beach this morning?
temp 74f
winds sustained from East@23mph
we did have a 50mph gust this morning!
rainfall storm total.... about 2inches
looks like we may double the two inches today......

hey.... what happened to wunderground yesterday? sight went down after i clicked post comment! LOL
CoconutCreekFLA,

Its dry up here and one more day of unseasonable weather (ie its 80 degrees up here in OCT, its not unheard of but its been 80 degress EVERY day of Oct so far). Luckily tommorrow it will cool down and Sat suppose be more like Oct, cold, wet, and cloudy.
Good morning, This is a first, logging on at work.
Just caught up on everything that was said during the night. Please, keep politics off of this blog, it is for weather information. For those of you wanting ages, I am 52, I have seen this age repeted by several of you; glad this blog welcomes us AARP members!
Questions:
What is going on at W52 N23 is that still an upper level low spinning out there?
What happened to the developement of "son of Stan"?????
Just a rain blob now it appears.

I work in Weston and we have had several showers this morning but nothing strong.
Thanks to all for the info.
gamma
morning Gamma, the only time I am on is at work!
Yikes! 8.20 inches in the rain gauge this morning! Luckily no flooding near my house. However, my wife and I rode around a bit last night around 11 PM during the most powerful squall of the storm and there was an area of about 3 square blocks about a mile from my house under 2-3 feet of water. It rained for several more hours, so I'm not sure how high that water got. There was also a very large power outage- at least 3 square miles of no power at all. None of the local news outlets have reported any numbers on it yet, though.
Gamma,

Welcome to the bloggerhood, and work is about the only time I get to be on.

And to shoot stats back at you 33, MWM grew up in NC but not living in the great frozen north of upstate NY.

Also according to some Master of Random Off Topic Crazy Questions.
Savannah, Hope you got your boots on! Looks like it will keep raining for awhile.
To my unpracticed eye, the model that curved Tammy into the gulf can't be right, as the NHC update seems to point it far further NW.

Any thoughts on the chance of the next TD forming SE or E of the Bahamas? It looks like Yucatan Stan is blowing out into FL, and is failing to develop meaningfully. Isn't there room for another storm a little further East before the 10N system moves up?
Zap
Morning all? What's the morning report?
Zap, I have no idea. All I can tell you is it is raining here! Lefty will be on in a little while I assume, and he should have a lot to say, and can answer your question.
Morning Mandy! How is your weather?
Good morning everyone. There is a lot going on this morning. To me the Son of Stan is better organized this morning. It looks like a lot of the strong convection to the east is much closer to the main circulation. You can really pick up the circulation center on cuban radar. I still think this will develope.



Morning everyone!
UV Index: 0 Low
Wind: From NNW at 14 mph
Humidity: 84%
Pressure: 29.79 in.
Dew Point: 68F
Visibility: 7.0 miles






Good morning everyone. Raining here in Pensacola. My yard tells me we needed it.
Weather from my hood

UV Index: 1 Low
Wind: From South at 7mph
Humidity: 74%
Pressure: 29.68 in.
Dew Point: 61F
Temp: 70F
Hi Coastie! Not raining yet in Gulf Breeze. Just cloudy and windy.
The weather channel this morning didn't even have "Son of Stan" developing into a TD.
GLOOMY, palmbeacher. Ugh. Raining in your area?
Anyone think the yucatan blob is any threat to the panhandle? Accuweather said it would move into Florida late Thursday? Does not seem so on radar to me. Have company coming this weekend from Louisianna.
gbreezegirl, you should get some soon as it is heading your way.
Hope this weather blows the "Red Tide" out for the weekend and does not bring in the biting flies!
Rain then some sun, Rain then some sun. Seems to be the forecast for the day here.
The yellow flies are the nastiest. Anyway, it looks to be a good weekend here in the Panhandle with temps in the low 80s.
They're predicting rain in Tally tomorrow, but sunshine for the weekend.
We are still in a Flood watch until Saturday. YUCK
Palmbeacher, Did you see the story about the Nile Lizzards in South Florida? That could get very scary for owners of small dogs and cats.
"Hope this weather blows the "Red Tide" out for the weekend and does not bring in the biting flies!"

Really makes me wonder why we live in Florida...hoping a tropical storm blows away the red tide and biting bugs! :D

Building a house in the snow belt of the Catskill mountains is looking better and better! Though I really can't complain as Jax "seems" invulnerable.

B
Coastie, yes I did. What freaked me out more was what happend in the Glades. With the Snake that ate a 6 foot alligator! They both ended up dead. Anyone else see that?
oh my heavens no. Wow. Glad I'm in North Florida.
I saw it on the news last night. I think it was one of thoses snakes that people get as pets and then turn loose when they get to big. However they said the Glades was full of them. Scary!
*those, thoses. you know what I mean. Case of Rectal Glaucoma.
Son of Stan is still a threat. I expect it will be a depression later today.As far as the panhandle goes, nobody could say with any amount of authority how this will develop and exactly where it will go. Its all a big guess now.
Morning all!

Slightly overcast here and an occasional sprinkle but nothing significant.

Observed At: Pompano Beach, Florida
Elevation: 16 ft / 5 m
84 F / 29 C
Mostly Cloudy
Heat Index: 93 F / 34 C
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 76 F / 24 C
Wind: 12 mph / 18 km/h from the SSE
Pressure: 29.78 in / 1008 hPa
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1800 ft / 548 m
Mostly Cloudy 3500 ft / 1066 m


I'm not gonna lie. I wouldn't mind a breezy rainy day. I really wouldn't.
That snake that ate the gator and exploded was all over the papers and news down here in SF. They even had pics of other times when the two are fighting each other in the water....I am an outdoors person and also find that stuff frightening but fasinating.

Where is the center of the "son of stan" storm? to the west or south of SF? Hard to tell from the sat I'm looking at.
In Weston it is alot like palmbeacher says. Showers & Sun on and off, hot and humit.
Did anyone ever find out what that swirl out east of Bahamas in the Atlantic is all about. At 23 N 53W???
Its been swirling out there several days. Any ideas?
Gamma