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Surprise tropical storm forms near the Azores; Invest 91L has potential to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:19 PM GMT on October 05, 2009

Surprise! A 70-mph tropical storm popped up seemingly out of nowhere early this morning, in a region of the Atlantic not ordinarily prone to tropical storm formation. Tropical Storm Grace formed at 41.2° north latitude, in a remote ocean area near the Azores Islands. This is the farthest northeast an Atlantic tropical storm has ever formed since satellite observations began in the 1960s. Since 1960, only one tropical storm has formed farther north--Tropical Storm Alberto of 1988, which formed at 41.5°N, off the coast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Satellite imagery revealed that Grace formed an eyewall and well-defined eye this morning, though the storm's tropical storm-force winds did not extend out very far from the center. Last night, the center of Grace passed about 20 miles west of Ponta Delgada in the eastern Azores, which recorded sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 44 mph. Grace formed over chilly waters of about 23°C, well below the usual threshold of 26°C required for tropical storm formation. Grace's formation was aided by some very cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere (-54°C at 200 mb), which made the atmosphere more unstable than usual. The storm won't be around much longer, as Grace is already over much colder waters of 21°C, and is headed towards even colder waters.


Figure 1. The storm that would later become Tropical Storm Grace passes through the Azores Islands at 14:20 UTC 10/04/09. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Invest 91
A large tropical wave near 12N 46W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and is over warm waters, 29°C, which is 3°C above the threshold typically needed to allow tropical storm formation. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. The wave is poorly organized at present, with no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should continue to track west-northwest over the next 2 - 3 days, and spread heavy rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. By Thursday, the trough of low pressure that is pulling 91L to the north should bypass the storm, allowing a high pressure ridge to build in and force 91L due west. NHC is giving 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 2. latest images of Invest 91L.

Pacific typhoons
In the Philippines, the cleanup continues from Tropical Storm Parma, which hit northern Luzon Island Saturday as a Category 1 typhoon. Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, but its heavy rain is now offshore the Philippines. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 16 people in the Philippines, but did not have the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Storm chaser James Reynolds took some dangerous looking video of Parma in the Philippines.

Super Typhoon Melor became the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year over the weekend, but has weakened slightly to a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Melor is expected to recurve to the northeast and pass within 200 miles of Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 954FtLCane:

The weirdest thing was it 1st showed a satellite map and then when I refreshed it showed a tracking map.... is that normal?


Apparently, ElConando is sharing the good stuff...
Quoting antonio28:
I am triying to figure out what is enhancing the blog in the Mona Passage? 456. is the ULL in the Central Caribbean or is something else?


upper cyclonic flow
Quoting Dakster:


Apparently, ElConando is sharing the good stuff...


its now 4:20 pdt
Quoting AtlantaMET:


I do not understand, upper highs are suppose to be favourable that means of the system could sheared if it was on the edge.


700MB relative humidity: Notice how all of the moisture is around the ridge.



1 That is true


If it extends below 500mb( 600mb, 700mb etc),
it can cause capping. This weakens the vertical temperature gradient (the change of temperatures with height).
Quoting Weather456:


upper cyclonic flow


Thanks. But what exactly is that, a Low?
Quoting futuremet:



1 That is true


If it extends below 500mb( 600mb, 700mb etc),
it can cause capping. This weakens the vertical temperature gradient (the change of temperatures with height).


That is true but that post was basically based the upper environment rather than ability to support convection.

bbl
507. xcool



Quoting Weather456:


That is true but that post was basically based the upper environment rather than ability to support convection.


yea....

One thing is true though...shear will drop quite a bit over the next couple of days. It has been boring thus far...
The Mona passage very often(almsot very day for weeks sometimes) get severe afternoon thunderstorms off the central mountian range of Puerto Rico.. all the warm rising daytime air gets pushed off the island in the afternoon by the now rapidly cooling upper air and pushed out over the sea by the kabatic winds
Wow, those are strong turns to the SW in some of these. Rarely happens that far south, but once in a long while does.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
511. JLPR

nothing else to say =P
512. JLPR
how can it look so good on one and kinda bad in the other :\

And dry air does not appear to be much of an issue (as opposed to every other system we got off of the lesser islands...(that was tease you guys)).

Neither the SAL product nor the WV showing much dry air in an immediate proximity.

SAL:


WV:


Addendum: Even if the environment is perfect, it doesn't mean it will develop, though. We have had plenty of systems that had a perfect environment and did nothing.
Since shear has been so high lately these storms have not been developing as normal or they have been pushed of the south over Ponce..

We have a thunderstorm outside right now in St Thomas..only the second of the summer.. we usually get them all the time . So we are in a more normal weather pattern right now..
I have 91L at about 15 N 47 W
516. JLPR


There's the center
for anyone wondering =)
91L Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



91L Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



I wouldn't say the shear forecasted for 48 hours from now by GFS is prohibitive. Of course, we could have another thin layer of shear, as per Erika...

I ma really hoping it gets far enough north that ridge picks it up( yes PRAY) I have my first charter of the season this weekend..right now looks like it will be tied up to the mangroves in a creek..

Only saving grace may be the interaction with the ridge will weaken it due to the cooler drier air that will come with it?
The mandatory levels in the sounding data from Grantley Adams (Barbados) shows some shear...and a couple of rather dry, albeit thin, layers.



91L is getting a little bit of shear on the northwest part of the System that is slowing down development . Models looks wired SW turn after 72 hrs I not buying that BTW seems like Dpass will miss 91L again tonight. Where are the Shear maps of CIMMS page is not working at least the shear tendency map. If anyone can post it will be good to see the tendency to see what is happening.
NHC seems to have little faith in the long range future of 91L, they have it at medium but continue to say it "could" become a depression before conditions become unfavorable
Still code orange and they expect conditions to become less favorable in a day or so.
Port Arkanos Tx.(near Corpus Cristi)

Conditions: Partly Cloudy

Temperature: 92 degrees F
Humidity 81%
Dewpoint: 86 degrees F
Heat Index from 110-120 degrees F

note: this station might be exaggerating a bit since readings surrounding it report dewpoints in the upper 70's lower 80's with air temps around the mid-80's(still insane). Compare that to a dewpoint of only 70 at my house(in Florida).

Yet relief is on the way for Columbus Day. In fact, models are promising Orlando a welcomed Fall blast with temps in the 70's by next week!
525. DDR
Quoting sailingallover:
Since shear has been so high lately these storms have not been developing as normal or they have been pushed of the south over Ponce..

We have a thunderstorm outside right now in St Thomas..only the second of the summer.. we usually get them all the time . So we are in a more normal weather pattern right now..

Hi there,(from Trinidad)i know most of the islands are well below average in rainfall this year,so enjoy your rain.
526. xcool






its time for me too give GRACE a speeding ticket
LOL!

00
ABNT20 KNHC 052342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GRACE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF IRELAND.


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GRACE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON GRACE ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

Hi,
I know Dr. Masters said that Grace is going into cooler waters but the map of the water temps looks like she is going into warmer water? Comments Anyone - thanks!
Have to love the NHC, in their latest "discussion" concerning TS Grace! Now they're saying that when they do their post-storm analysis, they'll probably determine TS Grace was a TS sooner then they first stated!?!?
NHC sticking up for themselves.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
FARTHER NORTH THAN GRACE DID. IN 2008 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS
FIRST CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 40.6N....SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE LATITUDE OF 40.2N WHERE GRACE WAS FIRST CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 0000 UTC TODAY. ALSO...IT IS LIKELY THAT
POST-STORM ANALYSIS WILL SHOW GRACE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
EARLIER...AND FARTHER SOUTH...THAN INDICATED OPERATIONALLY.

Quoting weatherbro:
Port Arkanos Tx.(near Corpus Cristi)

Conditions: Partly Cloudy

Temperature: 92 degrees F
Humidity 81%
Dewpoint: 86 degrees F
Heat Index from 110-120 degrees F

note: this station might be exaggerating a bit since readings surrounding it report dewpoints in the upper 70's lower 80's with air temps around the mid-80's(still insane). Compare that to a dewpoint of only 70 at my house(in Florida).

Yet relief is on the way for Columbus Day. In fact, models are promising Orlando a welcomed Fall blast with temps in the 70's!

Back in June, we fairly well determined that a LOT of PWS obs are suspect somewhat in their temps and horrible in their dew points. I wish I knew exactly how the mixing ratio, relative humidity, dew point, (whichever is actually being measured...the rest of the moisture-related numbers are calculated) was conducted on those so I could avoid it for whenever I get my own.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL!

00
ABNT20 KNHC 052342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GRACE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF IRELAND.


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GRACE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON GRACE ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS



too funny xD.
be for GRACE makes land fall it needs too play for its speeding ticket
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
NHC sticking up for themselves.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
FARTHER NORTH THAN GRACE DID. IN 2008 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS
FIRST CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 40.6N....SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE LATITUDE OF 40.2N WHERE GRACE WAS FIRST CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 0000 UTC TODAY. ALSO...IT IS LIKELY THAT
POST-STORM ANALYSIS WILL SHOW GRACE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
EARLIER...AND FARTHER SOUTH...THAN INDICATED OPERATIONALLY.



Will be quite a bit post analysis changes this season.
Quoting Tazmanian:
be for GRACE makes land fall it needs too play for its speeding ticket


Any idea what game it'll play?

Poker? Hold em? Go fish?
Quoting ElConando:


Will be quite a bit post analysis changes this season.


I think we're up to 5 systems that need to be re-evaluated during the PSA.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Any idea what game it'll play?

Poker? Hold em? Go fish?



it play go fish and won a speeding ticket
What an odd track, especially for a WPAC Storm:
TROPICAL STORM PARMA STORM TRACK:
Quoting Tazmanian:
be for GRACE makes land fall it needs too play for its speeding ticket


Actually, there are no speed limits over there. The skies the limit.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
NHC sticking up for themselves.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
FARTHER NORTH THAN GRACE DID. IN 2008 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS
FIRST CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 40.6N....SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE LATITUDE OF 40.2N WHERE GRACE WAS FIRST CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 0000 UTC TODAY. ALSO...IT IS LIKELY THAT
POST-STORM ANALYSIS WILL SHOW GRACE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
EARLIER...AND FARTHER SOUTH...THAN INDICATED OPERATIONALLY.



maybe they were tired of people whining lol and really they are right, Grace should have been named sooner. To me that is the only mistake they made with this system was not naming it a sub-tropical storm 2 days ago.
Quoting weatherbro:


Actually, there are no speed limits over there. The skies the limit.


though that was Germany?
W465 Post 474: Thanks for the great explanation of the future track of 91L. We'll be keeping a close watch on it here at 19N 82W...through the forecast period
Quoting weatherbro:
Port Arkanos Tx.(near Corpus Cristi)

Conditions: Partly Cloudy

Temperature: 92 degrees F
Humidity 81%
Dewpoint: 86 degrees F
Heat Index from 110-120 degrees F

note: this station might be exaggerating a bit since readings surrounding it report dewpoints in the upper 70's lower 80's with air temps around the mid-80's(still insane). Compare that to a dewpoint of only 70 at my house(in Florida).

Yet relief is on the way for Columbus Day. In fact, models are promising Orlando a welcomed Fall blast with temps in the 70's by next week!
Quoting weatherbro:
Port Arkanos Tx.(near Corpus Cristi)

Conditions: Partly Cloudy

Temperature: 92 degrees F
Humidity 81%
Dewpoint: 86 degrees F
Heat Index from 110-120 degrees F

note: this station might be exaggerating a bit since readings surrounding it report dewpoints in the upper 70's lower 80's with air temps around the mid-80's(still insane). Compare that to a dewpoint of only 70 at my house(in Florida).

Yet relief is on the way for Columbus Day. In fact, models are promising Orlando a welcomed Fall blast with temps in the 70's by next week!
WEATHERBRO!!!! When are you going to get back to doing your own blogs? I know that you may be intimidated by Storm W's following or Futuremets (no relation) use of big words, but your work was both accurate and inspirational! It's been too long, now get back to work!
repost... nice long grace loop, appears it is now becoming extratropical/frontal/taking in dry air. but should be interesteing to see where remnants make landfall :)

Link
Quoting futuremet:


yea....

One thing is true though...shear will drop quite a bit over the next couple of days. It has been boring thus far...
There you go again, totally ignoring the influence that the MJO will have!
Quoting AllStar17:
What an odd track, especially for a WPAC Storm:
TROPICAL STORM PARMA STORM TRACK:

Parma isn't done yet either! It looks like she could hang around for several more days while slowly strengthening back up to Typhoon strength. Here are some of Parma's forecast models.




what a crazy track for 91l XD should be interesting
549. bwi
Winds have gone SW at the buoy at 14.3n 46w. And pressure rising now.
I have noticed NHC and especially the Tropical Prediction Center being a little "slow " on weekends.. Including completely leaving troughs off weather fax charts one time.. and holiday weekends are worse.. I love NOAA..my life depends on them often..but sometimes I wanna strangle someone...
Quoting Dakster:


Apparently, ElConando is sharing the good stuff...
I got something weird doing that two, called "possibility scenarios" listing central to south florida 168 hrs; central gulf 192 hrs at (1) 15 pct and (2)18 percent. ?????
05/2345 UTC 15.1N 47.6W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic
Anyone up for a poll?
What do you think of 91L's prospects Drakoen?
sure tornadodude :)
I don't like those tracks at all..
Really it's not that crazy..it is just usually they loop around farther north..
Hannah looped just to our NW last year over the T&C and Haiti..looked for a bit like she might come back over us. Ivan made that huge loop over the SE US and back across the gulf..
Felix, jeanne..and others I can't remember all looped off the coast.
It's pretty common when a trough pushing it north by passes it and the high behind the trough pushes it south then the next trough picks it up...so it will go over me twice to make up for such a quite season so far
Quoting tornadodude:
Anyone up for a poll?


a. yes
b. no
c. polls are for losers
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What do you think of 91L's prospects Drakoen?


The system has the potential for further development before upper level winds become marginally favorable for development as the system comes close to an upper level trough.
Quoting tornadodude:
Anyone up for a poll?
Ohh Me!!!
Poll:

Who Will Win Tonight's Game:

A: Packers
B: Vikings



(game time temp is supposed to be chilly, but theyre in a dome. had to keep it weather related)
561. xcool
b
Quoting tornadodude:
Anyone up for a poll?


ok I got green bananas...(grother)
Thanks Drakoen!

Do you believe the motion to around 20N 60W and then WSW into the Caribbean that some models show?
565. 789
b
Packers.
Grace on mimic..very interesting..
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks Drakoen!

Do you believe the motion to around 20N 60W and then WSW into the Caribbean that some models show?


Looking at the shallow layer steering and the 850mb trough axis I would have to agree with those models. While it is an odd motion to occur so late in the season, it is most reasonable solution at the present time.
A dome is a good thing to have in an area that climatologically has a higher probability of undesirable weather conditions for fans and players. I expect Favre to do good(he historically shows up in night games) but the key to the game will be Harvin, who can move faster than most tropical depressions.
.
.
The Vikings.
Hot and sticky here. And where is my cold front??
:(

Beaumont, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 40 min 34 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
81 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 85%
Dew Point: 76 °F

Wind: 7 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 13 ft

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN
THE MID 60S INLAND...IN THE UPPER 60S COAST.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND...IN THE UPPER 60S COAST.
.COLUMBUS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 80.

And this from the people who say the front will push all the way nto the gulf by early Saturday. Covering their bases? Geesh! Lol.
grace will be dead at 11.
Quoting Drakoen:


The system has the potential for further development before upper level winds become marginally favorable for development as the system comes close to an upper level trough.


And beyond that, Drak? What would happen to 91L after it bypasses through the trough?
Quoting tornadodude:
Poll:

Who Will Win Tonight's Game:

A: Packers
B: Vikings



(game time temp is supposed to be chilly, but theyre in a dome. had to keep it weather related)


Packers :) Uh...even though they're not playing in the cold I still think they'll pull it off. ;)
Vikes (: haha

*must think weather*
Another cloudsat on 51L, somewhat shallow
Quoting Hurricane009:
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!


wont let me open it :/
Quoting Hurricane009:
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!


you put "http://" twice in your link
Quoting Hurricane009:
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!

That's not right.
..
.
NEW BLOG means a new blog by Dr. Master's....period.
.
.
If you're going to divert people to your blog, just say MY NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting Drakoen:


Looking at the shallow layer steering and the 850mb trough axis I would have to agree with those models. While it is an odd motion to occur so late in the season, it is most reasonable solution at the present time.


Not atypical of negative NAO...

Quoting tornadodude:


you put "http//" twice in your link
Quoting CosmicEvents:

That's not right.
..
.
NEW BLOG means a new blog by Dr. Master's....period.
.
.
If you're going to divert people to your blog, just say MY NEW BLOG!!!


Can you fail more? I can't even get the link to work, sends me to wikipedia..
Actually, Grace isn't going all that fast. We have had systems getting picked up by a trough go close to 70 mph. I think the NHC said Grace is doing 30?
Quoting CosmicEvents:

That's not right.
..
.
NEW BLOG means a new blog by Dr. Master's....period.
.
.
If you're going to divert people to your blog, just say MY NEW BLOG!!!


I agree completely.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Hey WU family, I hope I don't get banned for asking this, hopefully admin understands.

My daughter, Tina Bordonaro, who's 22 and her life partner Kim Wandell, 25; they found Kim's Dad, Ted Wandell dead, hung from a tree in his backyard, on 9-27-09. It was in the Ft Worth Star Telegram, ruled as an accidental hanging, he had a major stroke. Willing to provide the link if needed.

My daughter is on the verge of a complete and total nervous breakdown. I want to fly Tina and her 3 yr old daughter Lilye out from Dallas-Ft Worth International AP to Nashville International AP, on 10-6 returning her home on 10-9-09.

I am currently unemployed and can only afford $350 for a round trip flight. If someone has any "connections", PLEASE e-mail me on WU or at bordonaroroberta@yahoo.com.

Thanks,

Bob Bordonaro


I dont have any "connections," but I will definitely keep this in my prayers
91L is moving WNW now influence by the ridge building north of 20 N west of 50 W I do expect a more westward track over the next 3-4 days I think this will passing south of PR by Thursday. If I am correct that should gave space to develop after pass the 50W so tomorow if the day, if goes futher north of 16N Shear will kill it.
Quoting tornadodude:


you put "http://" twice in your link

Using Firefox in Linux can do that. No auto select-all when using the link popup box, but the "http://" is always present.

But the all caps new blog business is reserved for a Dr M blog, just my our community standard...
Quoting tornadodude:


I dont have any "connections," but I will definitely keep this in my prayers


Ditto
Quoting tornadodude:


I dont have any "connections," but I will definitely keep this in my prayers


Thanks, you're a fine young man and we appreciate that!!
Quoting Bordonaro:


Thanks, you're a fine young man and we appreciate that!!


thanks! I wish I could help, but a poor young college student like myself cant do much financially
Quoting tornadofan:


Ditto

Thanks, your prayers are greatly appreciated!
ha nevermind :P
Quoting Drakoen:


Looking at the shallow layer steering and the 850mb trough axis I would have to agree with those models. While it is an odd motion to occur so late in the season, it is most reasonable solution at the present time.

I agree. I wasn't saying it was a bunk model result, only that it is an odd, sharp SW turn for such a low lat and, like you said, this part of the season. Not common...
There! I put "my" in front of " new blog" and my link works!
Quoting tornadodude:


thanks! I wish I could help, but a poor young college student like myself cant do much financially

I am not asking for money, I received unemployment and I do ok, just no $$ for these kinda' events!!
Quoting tornadodude:
Hey Hurricane009:

I have an idea, fix your link, repost it as your new blog, and I bet you'll get a better response, you know?

(:
Post #591
Quoting Hurricane009:
There! I put "my" in front of " new blog" and my link works!


good job ha
Well, I'm just skewed. I summered in Door County (learned to sail on Green Bay) and the only channel on TV was fr Green Bay. And saw the most beautiful snow storm on Columbus Day up there! Complete with white gulls flying into the huge flakes... (Weather related!) I was indoctrinated early. We watched them eat breakfast, go to church, practice, pee...therapy didn't work...
A. Packers
Quoting Bordonaro:

I am not asking for money, I received unemployment and I do ok, just no $$ for these kinda' events!!


oh alright, well, if I could do more, I would, hope it all works out
I think code red by morning.
Quoting tornadodude:


oh alright, well, if I could do more, I would, hope it all works out


Thanks Tornadodude, I just don't want anyone thinking I was asking for money. Airline employees can share/or sell their "buddy passes", I know American Airlines still uses them, I'm sure the major airlines all do.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Thanks Tornadodude, I just don't want anyone thinking I was asking for money. Airline employees can share/or sell their "buddy passes", I know American Airlines still uses them, I'm sure the major airlines all do.


ah ok, yeah, I hope someone can help you
Quoting juslivn:
Well, I'm just skewed. I summered in Door County (learned to sail on Green Bay) and the only channel on TV was fr Green Bay. And saw the most beautiful snow storm on Columbus Day up there! Complete with white gulls flying into the huge flakes... (Weather related!) I was indoctrinated early. We watched them eat breakfast, go to church, practice, pee...therapy didn't work...
A. Packers

Hmm. I spent a summer in Door County 15 years ago. Beeeeeeeeautiful up there, except for the surprising amount of mosquitoes and gnats. Only thing not to like, really.

You mind sending some assortment of the local Jelly flavors to SE LA?
Quoting tornadodude:


ah ok, yeah, I hope someone can help you


Thanks, we'll work things out :0)!!
607. JLPR
91L wants to be TD 10
the question is: Will manage to do it?

Quoting JLPR:
91L wants to be TD 10
the question is: Will manage to do it?



haha does that call for another poll?

A: yes
B: no

jk guys
609. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:


haha does that call for another poll?

A: yes
B: no

jk guys


no please, no!
no polls XD
Quoting JLPR:


no please, no!
no polls XD


haha I was kidding
Quoting tornadodude:


haha does that call for another poll?

A: yes
B: no

jk guys

XD
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hmm. I spent a summer in Door County 15 years ago. Beeeeeeeeautiful up there, except for the surprising amount of mosquitoes and gnats. Only thing not to like, really.

You mind sending some assortment of the local Jelly flavors to SE LA?


I will! I just made grape jam from N.Illinois grapes, sooo good this year. But I may have to head up (Sturgeon Bay is calling my name, October fish boil and the Bays in Fall...fishing...oh my) and I will get some. wu-mail me, I'd love to send you cherry pie filling jarred from the Door.
Quoting tornadodude:


haha does that call for another poll?

A: yes
B: no

jk guys

(B) No, thanks :0)!
Quoting juslivn:


I will! I just made grape jam from N.Illinois grapes, sooo good this year. But I may have to head up (Sturgeon Bay is calling my name, October fish boil and the Bays in Fall...fishing...oh my) and I will get some. wu-mail me, I'd love to send you cherry pie filling jarred from the Door.


mmm (:
615. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:


haha I was kidding


yeah, but someone could take it seriously =P

also 91L is missing deep convection
in the passed nights it had deep convection by this hour but tonight it only has a few cells of strong convection

Quoting Bordonaro:

(B) No, thanks :0)!


haha good one :P
06/0000 UTC 48.8N 14.3W EXTRATROPICAL GRACE -- Atlantic



bye GRACE nic too no you
Quoting tornadodude:


haha does that call for another poll?

A: yes
B: no

jk guys
B
And now for another one of those brain teaser polls... j/k
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tropical Update as of 9pm EDT


It seems its lost a lot of its convection since earlier in the day. Wonder if that will have any implication in the track let alone will it survive past tonite with all that shear to its north. hmm interesting very interesting.
Brett Favre is my idol.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Brett Favre is my idol.


He is having an incredible night
Quoting JLPR:


yeah, but someone could take it seriously =P

also 91L is missing deep convection
in the passed nights it had deep convection by this hour but tonight it only has a few cells of strong convection



Structure is much improved from last night though, lets not over-analyze convection
Did you guys see that big whale that washed up ashore Fort Desoto? Man that thing must have weighed a ton.
627. JLPR
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Structure is much improved from last night though, lets not over-analyze convection


I agree structurally it has improved
628. JLPR
I see a new little area of more intense convection developing
maybe 91L is now like Erika which used to Blow up during the blackout =P

629. JLPR
did everyone went to the kitchen to get something to eat, or what? xD

it got very quiet in here
Quoting JLPR:
did everyone went to the kitchen to get something to eat, or what? xD

it got very quiet in here


I think it's the football :P
631. xcool







632. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:


I think it's the football :P


that makes sense xD
633. JRRP
Link
bbl
Quoting JLPR:


that makes sense xD


haha half time (:
636. JLPR
Quoting StormW:


I'm performing analysis.


great :0)
From what ive read on forecasted shear on 91L, is that if it goes to far N it will be ripped. If it goes father W than N it has favorable wind shear for about 48 hours. Then after that it will pick back up to unfavorable for about 24 to 36 hours. Then if it makes it thru that than it has favorable conditions again in NW Carrib. It sounds like it has a periodic gauntlet of shear. Does this sound about right or not? How can it make thru this if it is right?
Quoting tornadodude:


I think it's the football :P


Thanks to you I can see a squall line coming a lot faster off Green Bay! Or Northpoint, Lk MI. And enjoy my cherry pie! (I'm ignoring Farve, but I'm not bitter!)
Quoting juslivn:


Thanks to you I can see a squall line coming a lot faster off Green Bay! Or Northpoint, Lk MI. And enjoy my cherry pie! (I'm ignoring Farve, but I'm not bitter!)


haha you'd better enjoy it :PP
StormW, does 91L have a chance to make it as far as SW GOM in your opinion?
Why is the convection not blowing up on 91L?
642. xcool



Quoting duajones78413:
StormW, does 91L have a chance to make it as far as SW GOM in your opinion?



NO way that 91L will make it too the gulf it will get rip a part by high wind shear


there is a %0 ch of 91L going in too the gulf


and the other will say the same thing has i am
Quoting Tazmanian:



NO way that 91L will make it too the gulf it will get rip a part by high wind shear


there is a %0 ch of 91L going in too the gulf


and the other will say the same thing has i am
Wind shear will be favorable at that time in the GOM.
Quoting Tazmanian:



NO way that 91L will make it too the gulf it will get rip a part by high wind shear


there is a %0 ch of 91L going in too the gulf


and the other will say the same thing has i am


I agree, Taz. Especially this time of the year. G'evening, by the way.
Storm, can 91L threaten Florida down the road?
Quoting stormsurge39:
Wind shear will be favorable at that time in the GOM.



no it wont
649. JRRP

Season is over,time to move on to global warming and the end of the world.
91L will get RIP a part if it even comes near the USA

Quoting stormsurge39:
Why is the convection not blowing up on 91L?


diurnal minimum?
no storms we are protected this year.
Will grace be declared dead at 11?

a. yes
b. no
c. NO MORE POLLS!1 (and a.)



eh, i got the poll out too late. its A. anyway... NEXT (season)
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I agree, Taz. Especially this time of the year. G'evening, by the way.
If 91L gets pushed SW into the Caribbean where do you think it will go?
Quoting Tazmanian:
91L will get RIP a part if it even comes near the USA


all about some dowcasting this year eh taz ? lol let's say this. shear is *forecast by some models* to be conducive atleast out to 72 hours in the southern carribean and gomex. Not saying it goes there, but if it did it's not a zero percent chance of survival. If this scenario plays out remains to be seen. At this point I'd give it a 10% chance of impacting the US in someway and a 5% chance of this occuring as anything named.
I've already killed grace, so I could attend funeral before I went to bed.
poof!!
Quoting help4u:
Season is over,time to move on to global warming and the end of the world.


...GRACE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM...

11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 5
Location: 49.7°N 13.4°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NNE at 26 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
I dont see how if 91L developes, and heads in the direction it is forecasted,could not enter at least the SE part of the GOM?
Quoting help4u:
poof!!

i would but you're too funny XD
Quoting stormsurge39:
I dont see how if 91L developes, and heads in the direction it is forecasted,could not enter at least the SE part of the GOM?

I see no reason why this isn't possible .. unlikely? maybe. possible? sure.
edit: climatologicaly, a storm entering the SE gomex then recurving is far more likely, but I don't think a SW gomex october storm that originated in this area is unprecedented.
664. JLPR
Quoting SouthALWX:

I see no reason why this isn't possible .. unlikely? maybe? possible? sure.
Quoting SouthALWX:

I see no reason why this isn't possible .. unlikely? maybe? possible? sure.
The other possibilty if it takes the caribbean way,a front could come down and shoot it back towards S FL and miss the GOM all together.
666. JLPR
all models here take 91L to Ts strength but three weaken it

or,poof!!
Quoting stormsurge39:
The other possibilty if it takes the caribbean way,a front could come down and shoot it back towards S FL and miss the GOM all together.

and that's far more likely imo. but to say it's impossible 0% is a bit extreme i think
RE: #67
Weatherstudent, how is it that even though you claim to be a meteorology student and have been hanging around this blog in various incarnations for awhile now, that you still can't seem to catch half a clue about cloud direction after all of this time??
Quoting stormsurge39:
The other possibilty if it takes the caribbean way,a front could come down and shoot it back towards S FL and miss the GOM all together.
or the other possibility is it's kaput why do people always take Storms to florida? everyone has a hit florida thing
Does anyone know why 91L is so slow to get its act together right now? I thought conditions were favorable right now?
Quoting tropics21:
or the other possibility is it's kaput why do people always take Storms to florida? everyone has a hit florida thing

climatologicaly a storm hitting florida from west to east is a pretty good possibility. I agree of course that dissipation is a fair bet as well. honestly, this is the first storm that even looks to have a chance at surviving in this region and no one will really know what's going to happen until (if) it gets there. Judging by this year, your bets are safer if you bet on everything dying, in that sense, throw me in there with the downcasters. DEATH TO 91L! lol
Quoting tropics21:
or the other possibility is it's kaput why do people always take Storms to florida? everyone has a hit florida thing
Im only going off history! More developed storms this time of year hit FL.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Im only going off history! More developed storms this time of year hit FL.
History was proven wrong this year by storms that formd this year and everyone was so sure where they were going because of historical paths and this one isn't going to develop into much IMO
Quoting stormsurge39:
If 91L gets pushed SW into the Caribbean where do you think it will go?


West for a while, and then eventually begin to move north westward as a digging cold front would tend to pull it that way. Beyond that point, stay tune, I guess.
Quoting winter123:


Can you fail more? I can't even get the link to work, sends me to wikipedia..


god could you guys be any nastier. people are entitled to mistakes. but let me guess neither one of you have ever made any.
This time of year yes if they Develop and are in the gulf they do tend to curve east but IMO don't think 91L will stay intact IMO
678. xcool






Quoting tropics21:
This time of year yes if they Develop and are in the gulf they do tend to curve east but IMO don't think 91L will stay intact IMO

I don't think he is arguing on that front, just defending his statement on being attacked about mentioning the f-word .. (florida)
at least we will be entertained for a couple of days...
Quoting SouthALWX:

I don't think he is arguing on that front, just defending his statement on being attacked about mentioning the f-word .. (florida)


LOL!
Quoting tropics21:
History was proven wrong this year by storms that formd this year and everyone was so sure where they were going because of historical paths and this one isn't going to develop into much IMO
You asked a question and i gave you answer. I agree everyone harps on FL. all season probably because it sticks out like a sore thumb, not that its a good reason. As far as storms forming in October and them hitting the USA, from the Northern gulf coast of FL. down the east side to the S around it to the W side has been hit more times than any other land mass in October and thats a fact. As far as my opinion on 91L its just one of many.
What an odd track, especially for a WPAC Storm:
TROPICAL STORM PARMA STORM TRACK:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Grace is already turning towards the north, and will be west of Ireland. I expect Grace to fall apart pretty quickly, be dead by 11 p.m. And should have been named earlier, btw.

Not a storm of the ages, but still fun to track :)


Well at 1:09 p.m. I nailed it :)
If 91's shortwave presentation keeps improving it might surprise some people by morning.
HERE IS AN INTERESTING OCTOBER TRACK

Date: 27-31 OCT 1867
Hurricane #9
ADV LAT LON TIME WIND PR STAT
1 19.00 -50.50 10/27/00Z 40 - TROPICAL STORM
2 19.00 -51.50 10/27/06Z 40 - TROPICAL STORM
3 19.00 -52.60 10/27/12Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM
4 19.00 -53.70 10/27/18Z 50 - TROPICAL STORM
5 19.00 -55.00 10/28/00Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
6 19.00 -56.30 10/28/06Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
7 19.00 -57.70 10/28/12Z 70 - HURRICANE-1
8 19.00 -59.20 10/28/18Z 80 - HURRICANE-1
9 19.00 -60.70 10/29/00Z 90 - HURRICANE-2
10 18.90 -62.00 10/29/06Z 100 - HURRICANE-3
11 18.60 -63.30 10/29/12Z 110 - HURRICANE-3
12 18.40 -64.80 10/29/18Z 100 952 HURRICANE-3
13 18.30 -66.50 10/30/00Z 80 - HURRICANE-1
14 18.20 -68.10 10/30/06Z 70 - HURRICANE-1
15 18.20 -69.60 10/30/12Z 80 - HURRICANE-1
16 18.40 -71.50 10/30/18Z 60 - TROPICAL STORM
17 18.60 -73.50 10/31/00Z 40 - TROPICAL STORM


1867, October 29 The most violent hurricane in many parts of Puerto Rico, known as San Narcisco. Accounts indicate it was a was a storm of small diameter and rapid movement. Also affected St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands where 1,000 lives were lost.
Quoting stormsurge39:
You asked a question and i gave you answer. I agree everyone harps on FL. all season probably because it sticks out like a sore thumb, not that its a good reason. As far as storms forming in October and them hitting the USA, from the Northern gulf coast of FL. down the east side to the S around it to the W side has been hit more times than any other land mass in October and that,s a fact. As far as my opinion on 91L its just one of many.
I can vouch for that, We have been stomped by October storms numerous times.


Navy Track of Grace
Storm w does it look like 91L is trying to close its ciculation any time soon?
The fact that the pressure was found to be quite a bit lower than previously thought may mean they upgrade Grace to a hurricane in the post analysis--Grace had a nice symmetrical structure and eye for a while last night.
COMPLETE Graphics Update:
Tropical Storm Grace

Tropical Storm Parma (WPAC)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The fact that the pressure was found to be quite a bit lower than previously thought may mean they upgrade Grace to a hurricane in the post analysis--Grace had a nice symmetrical structure and eye for a while last night.


Yeah, for awhile, it appeared to be somewhat better organized, and the eye was fairly prominent last night, IMO
697. xcool



698. JLPR
There we go
heavy convection with 91l



also 91L has considerably shrinked since yesterday
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press.

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS OCTOBER 05, 2009 ISSUED 11:20 P.M. EDT


Thank you Storm. :) Been waiting all day for that. :)
Last of the night :)
Have fun and play nice :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Daily Chuckles in Comments section

702. xcool



Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thank you Storm. :) Been waiting all day for that. :)


Yes, thanks Storm, always good to hear from you.

Hey Homeless, how is the weather in TX tonight?
I just don't see 91L doing much, this has been a sheary season, and I'm not counting on the shear ahead to weaken as much as some people think. Even if it does develop, it seems to me the ridge building to the north will press it down into the Dominican Republic. That could cause a flooding disaster there, or Haiti---but I just don't see 91L having a future beyond that.
Based on ASCAT, Sat, and TRMM center is close to 15.8N/49.1W. WNW of the official position.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I just don't see 91L doing much, this has been a sheary season, and I'm not counting on the shear ahead to weaken as much as some people think. Even if it does develop, it seems to me the ridge building to the north will press it down into the Dominican Republic. That could cause a flooding disaster there, or Haiti---but I just don't see 91L having a future beyond that.


basing opinions on anything other than current data is a very dangerous thing to do. Just because the 2009 season has been slow and shear has been prevalent has very very little to do with what 91L will do in the end.
707. JLPR
The circulation of of 91L is open to the SW

Quoting tornadodude:


Yes, thanks Storm, always good to hear from you.

Hey Homeless, how is the weather in TX tonight?


Hey Matt. Hot and drizzly here. Hows the weather in Indiana?
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hey Matt. Hot and drizzly here. Hows the weather in Indiana?


well that doesnt sound pleasant. but it is about 48 degrees and clear here (:
StormW - Thanks for the analysis.

If you could take a quick look at the 18Z GFS shear and comment on how it might change your thinking, it would be appreciated.

Modified to remove obvious statement for a system with no defined COC.
Quoting tornadodude:


well that doesnt sound pleasant. but it is about 48 degrees and clear here (:


That sounds refreshing. Although, when it starts dipping below 60 here our teeth start chattering. :) A friend of ours from Iowa don't remember ever seeing him in a coat here. Lol.
712. xcool
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That sounds refreshing. Although, when it starts dipping below 60 here our teeth start chattering. :) A friend of ours from Iowa don't remember ever seeing him in a coat here. Lol.


haha yeah, I dont know if I would wear a coat either
Melor has gotten absolutely massive!!!





Hey tornadodude. Sounds like a great opportunity and hope it works out for you.
BurnedAfterPosting I could be wrong--but given it's current disorganized state, extensive shear in the direction it is forecast to track, and the long-term models letting it get to about 20 N and slapping it down into Hispaniola what I said is reasonable.

I very much doubt 91L will form into a storm, cruise steadily westward into the NW Caribbean in a week and explode feasting on the hot waters there.
Quoting Seastep:
Hey tornadodude. Sounds like a great opportunity and hope it works out for you.


hey, thanks, I'm pretty excited about it, I'm supposed to meet with the professor tomorrow about it, but it looks promising.
718. JRRP
i think will be yellow circle soon...
i´m out
719. JLPR
91L is missing west winds
720. JLPR
but convection is now over the center and seems to have finally consolidated

GMZ089-060930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN E TO W ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 25N WILL
DRIFT N TO ALONG 27N WED THROUGH FRI. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND
SUNSET FRI. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO SE
TEXAS LATE SAT.

Great! Now the NHC is stalling the front! (sarcasm of course) Don't want that.
AMZ089-060930-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 PM EDT MON OCT 05 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
HONDURAS BY NOON TUE. A TROUGH NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE WILL
DISSIPATE TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W TONIGHT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE E TUE AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU
AND W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. LOW PRES E OF AREA NEAR 15N47W WILL
MOVE NW INTO THE TROPICAL AREA NEAR 20N57W WED...NEAR 21N60W THU
AND NEAR 21N65W FRI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.


If the NHC calls it a low does that mean its a closed low or just low pressure?
hmm, saturday night is forecast to be 35 with a chance of rain link
724. xcool
on nooo 35 matt
Quoting xcool:
on nooo 35 matt


yeah, I guess there is an outside chance of snow, highs near 50 next week, with another front coming through on tuesday, maybe
726. xcool
:0
bring on the cold (:
bored, bed, be back probably late wednesday night drunk to wishcast and blobwatch with y'all.
Quoting winter123:
bored, bed, be back probably late wednesday night drunk to wishcast and blobwatch with y'all.


haha see ya
730. xcool
Hmmmm? Best I can tell this latest GFS never really lets the front get anywhere near 91L. By Sunday high building back over the gulf and I'm probably wrong but I don't see the mid atlantic high ever letting up at all. If anything does develop west it goes. At least according to the GFS...this run...for now...stay tuned. :) Oh and it doesn't develop 91L anyway. Lol.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Hmmmm? Best I can tell this latest GFS never really lets the front get anywhere near 91L. By Sunday high building back over the gulf and I'm probably wrong but I don't see the mid atlantic high ever letting up at all. If anything does develop west it goes. At least according to the GFS...this run...for now...stay tuned. :) Oh and it doesn't develop 91L anyway. Lol.


well heck, if it doesnt develop it, then we're in good shape lol
733. xcool



Quoting tornadodude:


well heck, if it doesnt develop it, then we're in good shape lol


Yeah tropically speaking. But if that cold front hangs around the coast for days or like the NAM shows it moving to our north by the weekend it would mess up my fishing next week too windy. :(
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah tropically speaking. But if that cold front hangs around the coast for days or like the NAM shows it moving to our north by the weekend it would mess up my fishing next week too windy. :(


well we dont want your fishing messed up :(
Quoting tornadodude:


well we dont want your fishing messed up :(


Awe thanks. :) No we don't. Hubby's vacation. And actually this is very weather related. Before Ike took our pier away, after it finally got repaired after Rita, we don't have anywhere to bank fish anymore. So we finally bought a boat. And we found out the hard way a 16ft boat and 20 knot winds 4 ft seas do not mix. Lol. And it was supposed to be no wind that day. So for yet another reason scared of the wind. :)
737. xcool



Quoting homelesswanderer:


Awe thanks. :) No we don't. Hubby's vacation. And actually this is very weather related. Before Ike took our pier away, after it finally got repaired after Rita, we don't have anywhere to bank fish anymore. So we finally bought a boat. And we found out the hard way a 16ft boat and 20 knot winds 4 ft seas do not mix. Lol. And it was supposed to be no wind that day. So for yet another reason scared of the wind. :)


yeah, well fishing certainly sounds quite relaxing, as long as the water is not choppy. I hope you have smooth sailing (:
Seriously though, I hope 91L doesn't develop or hit anyone. And I hope that monster in the Pacific dies out at sea. I know I joke but I am counting my blessings we haven't had one of those in the Atlantic this year. :)
740. xcool
AL, 91, 2009100600, , BEST, 0, 148N, 474W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ,
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Seriously though, I hope 91L doesn't develop or hit anyone. And I hope that monster in the Pacific dies out at sea. I know I joke but I am counting my blessings we haven't had one of those in the Atlantic this year. :)


oh no doubt, I am very thankful for this quiet year so far in the Atlantic. I certainly hope that Melor misses Japan
742. xcool
Link


new model run


cmc model low in gom
Ice/Snow storm we had in January

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM GRACE...WHICH MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
Quoting xcool:
Link


new model run


cmc model low in gom


I saw that. Doesn't look like 91L though. Weird with 91L it takes it to about 23n does a loopty loop comes back to 20n and creeps due west. Lol. This is going to have the blog crazy again.
746. xcool
homelesswanderer .haha
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I saw that. Doesn't look like 91L though. Weird with 91L it takes it to about 23n does a loopty loop comes back to 20n and creeps due west. Lol. This is going to have the blog crazy again.


haha yeah, I can imagine that all the various "casters" will be out in full force
Quoting tornadodude:
Ice/Snow storm we had in January



Thats beautiful Matt. We had an ice storm in 97. It was so peaceful. Everything was still. The only sound was the branches breaking and falling on the power lines.Lol. And it was cold!
Does anyone else think that 91L is becoming better organized at the coc?
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thats beautiful Matt. We had an ice storm in 97. It was so peaceful. Everything was still. The only sound was the branches breaking and falling on the power lines.Lol. And it was cold!


yeah, it was awesome, except it canceled my trip to Dallas to tour Texas Stadium before they tore it down :( we did however end up with 11 inches of snow on top of the ice
hello all
752. xcool
hibtwntx08
Quoting stormsurge39:
Does anyone else think that 91L is becoming better organized at the coc?


not sure to be honest

Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, it was awesome, except it canceled my trip to Dallas to tour Texas Stadium before they tore it down :( we did however end up with 11 inches of snow on top of the ice


Oh wow! Bet that was something. We didn't get the snow. :( And I may lose my official fan status for this but um...did they tear down Texas stadium?
755. xcool
bye all
Quoting btwntx08:
hello all


Hi BT. :)
Quoting xcool:
bye all


Night Xman. :)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Oh wow! Bet that was something. We didn't get the snow. :( And I may lose my official fan status for this but um...did they tear down Texas stadium?


um yeah, they did :P they have a new stadium that cost over one billion dollars, it is incredible!
link
Quoting xcool:
bye all


cya! hey BT
Quoting tornadodude:


um yeah, they did :P they have a new stadium that cost over one billion dollars, it is incredible!
link


Well I knew about the new one. :P And it is something else! I even know who the first player ever to go there was. :)
Doesn't it have a retractable roof in case it rains or snows or something? ;)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Well I knew about the new one. :P And it is something else! I even know who the first player ever to go there was. :)


haha I figured you knew about it, how could you not? who was it? :p
Quoting tornadodude:


haha I figured you knew about it, how could you not? who was it? :p


Jessie Holly. He won on Michael Irvin's reality show to win a place on the team. They worked those guys hard too. Had em run across Irving in all that heat. ( Lol I'm flirting with the "B" word)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Jessie Holly. He won on Michael Irvin's reality show to win a place on the team. They worked those guys hard too. Had em run across Irving in all that heat. ( Lol I'm flirting with the "B" word)


oh yeah, I watched that show, pretty intense for sure! lol well I'm going to bed, soo goodnight and take care all (:
sorry about my computer downloaded so slow thank god i have a laptop i use at college
One more model observation then I gotta call it a night. the GFS,GFDL, and Hwrf all seem to lose 91L but bring a low from behind it skimming South America or just north of it into the Caribbean. Hmmm. That should get em talking too. Have to save ECMWF for tomorrow. Good night Matt, BT, all. Enjoyed the conversation. :)
my comp is having a bad night i'll come back later when at college my laptop rocks! night matt and everyone
I just saw this. And all I can say is GOOD!!!

Woman gets 10 years for Hurricane Ike burglaries

Scott Lawrence

A judge has sentenced a woman to a decade in prison and ordered her to pay thousands of dollars in restitution after she pleaded guilty to burglarizing homes during the Hurricane Ike evacuation.

Link

Ok. Night for real this time. As I go to bed with my blood boiling!
Naaaastyy weather today. Big ol' front swathed across us, and the remnants of Grace haven't even got to us yet.

Going to be a wet couple of days.
Latest model runs show 91L looking like another Ana and Danny. If this does not develop or fizzles like the models show...it makes you wonder what are these conditions in the deep layers of the atmosphere that has killed about everything this year??? It is more than just shear controlling the Atlantic this 2009 season. I don't think the NHC could even tell you exactly what it is.
Latest IR image doesn't look that impressive. 91L still has major work to do. Link
Quoting markymark1973:
Latest model runs show 91L looking like another Ana and Danny. If this does not develop or fizzles like the models show...it makes you wonder what are these conditions in the deep layers of the atmosphere that has killed about everything this year??? It is more than just shear controlling the Atlantic this 2009 season. I don't think the NHC could even tell you exactly what it is.


It's lacking some Mojo...
772. IKE
00Z ECMWF shows nothing through October 16th.
Good morning, Ike. You are up early!
Question for those who know how to "read" the current sat. I am in OKinawa Japan and am getting some pretty nasty winds. Has Melor started to turn yet? I hope this thing doesn't surprise everyone and not turn to the NE as expected...
775. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good morning, Ike. You are up early!


Went to sleep early...good morning.
776. IKE
Looks like 91L is turning to the NW. Looks ragged this morning.
good morning looks like the mojo is finally in the atlantic waiting for a visiable on 91 to make a determination
Parma made landfall again...


Melor...Not good for Japan...

without parma hanging around meior probally wouldnot make it west enough to hit japan wierd how its working out
780. IKE
91L....

91 is struggling only bill did good in the central atlantic this yr a busy day ahead have fun
782. IKE
I see a naked swirl on 91L, racing WNW near 16.5N and 52W.
Good Morning!

Tropical Update

91L heads northwest; Grace gone
Thank you for the update, 456
Man, did this blog get quiet in a hurry.

I'll check in on 91L this afternoon. I'll have a graphics update then as well.

Everyone have a good day!
for alot of us we learned alot of discipline when our parents told us no. you got to go to school. you cant surf until after school. what are all the kids nowadays homeschooled?
Quoting IKE:
I see a naked swirl on 91L, racing WNW near 16.5N and 52W.
so whats going to happen? a slow and steady decay?
788. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
so whats going to happen? a slow and steady decay?


If you go by a majority of the models, including the reliable ECMWF....yes. And what the NHC says about conditions becoming less favorable.

As Howard Cosell would say...calls it like you see's it.
Morning 456, you are awfully happy this morning. That's nice.

IKE just be honest with us, you don't want this feature to develop so you are jumping on on the models fairly quickly. Did not 456 or StormW said if the feature formed a low level circulation the models did not verify, therefore you have to take them with a grain of salt. Are you so blinded by your emotions that you cannot see what's going on. What's the shear forecast for the long term?
Quoting AtlantaMET:
Morning 456, you are awfully happy this morning. That's nice.

IKE just be honest with us, you don't want this feature to develop so you are jumping on on the models fairly quickly. Did not 456 or StormW said if the feature formed a low level circulation the models did not verify, therefore you have to take them with a grain of salt. Are you so blinded by your emotions that you cannot see what's going on. What's the shear forecast for the long term?


I lived another day to do what I love, I have nothing to complain about. lol
Quoting Weather456:


I lived another day to do what I love, I have nothing to complain about. lol


Haha. So true, some persons could take a lesson or two. God Bless. I have to get ready for work now. Traffic here could get you stuck like forever.
792. IKE
Quoting AtlantaMET:
Morning 456, you are awfully happy this morning. That's nice.

IKE just be honest with us, you don't want this feature to develop so you are jumping on on the models fairly quickly. Did not 456 or StormW said if the feature formed a low level circulation the models did not verify, therefore you have to take them with a grain of salt. Are you so blinded by your emotions that you cannot see what's going on. What's the shear forecast for the long term?


"I don't want it to develop"????

I could care less. Just stating an opinion based on what I see.

"Blinded by emotions"? WTH?

As far as what StormW and 456 have said about it. I don't know. I haven't been on here much in the last 2 days and haven't read either one's thoughts on 91L.

You need to mellow out.
Good morning all

I may be wrong about this but the "naked swirl" seen in sat imagery does not appear to be a surface feature, at least not according to quikscat.

In fact there is no well defined surface low with 91L at all. There is a wind shift but it is still nothing but a broad area of low pressure. If that swirl was the " center " I would have expected to see a quikscat pass with a closed low.

Anyway, as I said above maybe I have the wrong end of the stick on this and will await the update from the NHC.
Quoting IKE:


"I don't want it to develop"????

I could care less. Just stating an opinion based on what I see.

"Blinded by emotions"? WTH?

As far as what StormW and 456 have said about it. I don't know. I haven't been on here much in the last 2 days and haven't read either one's thoughts on 91L.

You need to mellow out.


Not trying to start anything :). But for someone who does not care you see to be awfully against developments.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

I may be wrong about this but the "naked swirl" seen in sat imagery does not appear to be a surface feature, at least not according to quikscat.

In fact there is no well defined surface low with 91L at all. There is a wind shift but it is still nothing but a broad area of low pressure. If that swirl was the " center " I would have expected to see a quikscat pass with a closed low.

Anyway, as I said above maybe I have the wrong end of the stick on this and will await the update from the NHC.


That is correct. The swirl is low level but not at the surface.
Quoting AtlantaMET:


Not trying to start anything :). But for someone who does not care you see to be awfully against developments.


If that's the case, then he's been correct more often than not this year.
798. IKE
Quoting AtlantaMET:


Not trying to start anything :). But for someone who does not care you see to be awfully against developments.


Yeah...I'm sitting here rooting against it. It's the most important thing in my life.

FYI...I was on here yesterday saying it was close to a TD...should be a red circle.

I didn't see anyone hammering me for saying that.

I posted the MJO charts which showed a positive MJO coming in the Atlantic.

No one hammered me for that either.

But when I say I see a naked swirl racing WNW, I'm hammered by you and accused of some childish things.

Grow up....
post 799 - love the sarcasm. LOL.
Hi Storm

A little sarcasm with your coffee ? LOL

Actually, I read the update yesterday and the Nino 3.4 region has COOLED to positive .7 from positive .9 of a degree.

If that continues we will be neutral by year's end IMO
Quoting tornadofan:


If that's the case, then he's been correct more often than not this year.


I disagree though, but I'm not here for that.


going going going ....
I havn't said anything to upset someone like that. The problem is is harboring the anger about the 2009 Hurricane Season and channeling it to anyone who reponds his complaining every morning. He just seems like a soar wishcaster.

I'm apoligize for any disruptions. I'll leave now.
Back later.

Time to catch up on what's happening elsewhere.
808. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Me?

Heck, I don't know anything about tropical weather.

Morning IKE!


I'll read your forecasts most of the time. Just haven't done so in the last 2-3 days.

I don't care if 91L develops or not. Just saw a naked swirl and pointed it out.

And good morning....
good morn ike you downcaster you

lol
The local met here in Mobile Al. said 91L will be very slow to develope, if any, over the next couple of days. Although if it can survive the next 48 hours, conditions will be very favorable to develope.


Still orange. Good morning all.
Quoting stormsurge39:
The local met here in Mobile Al. said 91L will be very slow to develope, if any, over the next couple of days. Although if it can survive the next 48 hours, conditions will be very favorable to develope.


yea that is my current thinking.
It looks as if 91L may be encountering difficulties, just like most of its predecessors this season. Hopefully it will soon fizzle out and not give anyone any problems, although it still needs to be watched awhile longer.

Here's to a very subdued tropical Atlantic hurricane season in 2009. May those supressed hurricane seasons continue indefinately.
Is there anything to the area 35w to 45w, 5 to 10n??
816. IKE
I'll get knocked-down for posting this...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NO
LONGER APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

thats the key if it makes it the next 48 then we may have something but we wait for 48 to past first to see
yellow it is
819. IKE
Quoting StormW:


No big deal IKE. I hear ya...and given the TCHP...I wouldn't want it to develop.

Good eye BTW on that swirl. Seems to be the common theme this season.


I usually read your forecasts. I'm no expert on the tropics.

Thanks and have a nice day. Gotta go to work.
see ike even the NHC is downcasting someone say they are downcasters now
have a good day ike
all the wishcasters will be waiting for the downcaster to return

lol
Im trying to learn and listen. My current thinking is we havent had an invest yet this season that is suppossed to track into the Caribbean as 91L is forecasted to do. If 91L does make it into the Caribbean and conditions are favorable as forecasted, this could be the one to watch!!
Quoting IKE:
I'll get knocked-down for posting this...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NO
LONGER APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Ike whoever would knock you for this, is a major wisher of tropical storms!LOL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
526 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2009



DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST...PROVIDING A VERY MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE GULF. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER SE TX...WHERE
TEMPS/DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON THE COAST...WHICH
IS VERY UNUSUAL EVEN FOR EARLY OCTOBER.


TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH NEAR 90/LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHICH IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF RECORD
VALUES
...TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN. KEEP IN MIND THE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOW NEAR 60 FOR LOWS AND NEAR 80
FOR HIGHS!

LETS DO IT AGAIN FOR FRI...WITH ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO
BRING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI/SAT TIME
FRAME...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. THIS FRONT
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE S PROGRESSION...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HANG
UP ACROSS THE N GULF.
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN FROPA...AND HOW MUCH CLEARING AND CAA WILL TAKE PLACE THIS
WEEKEND.

The year of shear and stalling cold fronts. Lol.

Beaumont, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 58 min 39 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
79 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 °F

A perfect score. :)
Shear trumps the galley, AGAIN. ARRRGH

I agree with the likes saying El Nino may be on it's way out or Modoki style anyway.
ENSO Normal (Neutral)

827. amd
91L looks like crap this morning. It seems that the higher shear has come a bit earlier than expected.

Also, Melor is very close to a small Japanese island called Minamidaitojima
829. Relix
Local met here, Ada Monzon, said the system posed no threat as a tropical system to the islands since it wouldn't be able to develop. She does expect for the low pressure to cross PR and die over, but aside from that she expects nothing from this.

My forecast was spot on =P
830. P451
Grace, Yesterday afternoon, Modis.

Unfortunately not a dead on shot by Modis.

831. P451
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS OCTOBER 06, 2009 ISSUED 8:15 A.M. EDT


Thanks Storm. I thought 91 would have had a chance to organize before the shear hit as it looked pretty good a day or so ago. Things do change quickly indeed - especially towards the hostile environment side of things this season it appears.
Quoting TropicalBruce:
It looks as if 91L may be encountering difficulties, just like most of its predecessors this season. Hopefully it will soon fizzle out and not give anyone any problems, although it still needs to be watched awhile longer.

Here's to a very subdued tropical Atlantic hurricane season in 2009. May those supressed hurricane seasons continue indefinately.
no you really would not want that canes are heat transfer stations if the heat don't transfer then then may be other abnormal patterns to affect weather some may be extreme
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS OCTOBER 06, 2009 ISSUED 8:15 A.M. EDT


New burst of convection now attempting to cover the circulation. I suspect there are more surprises in store with 91L

Catch you later.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS OCTOBER 06, 2009 ISSUED 8:15 A.M. EDT
Thanks Storm! Which senario are you leaning towards 1 or 2?
Summer continues here with dewpoints near 80 this morning, highs in the 90s and heat index values well over 100+
grass is greener now in October than its been all summer
91l has a very well defined llc this morning even though convection is lacking.


91l looks rough
839. P451
24HRs of 91L

Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS OCTOBER 06, 2009 ISSUED 8:15 A.M. EDT
Storm W, Do you think with an October weather setup fot 91L, that its future would be different then what weve seen all season with other invests and storms?
841. Relix
I am pretty sure 91L won't develop at all. Quite, quite sure. Upper Level winds and shear won't allow it.
842. MahFL
I see convection building.
Quoting MahFL:
I see convection building.
It is building and the new convection looks like it trying to wrap NW towards broad level of circulation.
844. JLPR
windshear of 20 - 25knts giving 91L a hard time

845. ackee
2009 seasons is almost over if anything does develop looking on SW carrb later in the month 91L will remain a TW
Accuweather says there may be some evidence of a closed surface circulation at 16N 50W,
Quoting stormsurge39:
Accuweather says there may be some evidence of a closed surface circulation at 16N 50W,
correction, not a closed low instead a surface low.
I see 91L is back to yellow.....i really could not figure out yesterday why they ever put it to Orange...as i stated yesterday.
Quoting JLPR:
windshear of 20 - 25knts giving 91L a hard time



Looks like 91L didnt want to follow my advice.
Last nights update.

Shear is very unfavorable to the north of 91L so it would be in its best interest to stay below 18N.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
ENSO Normal (Neutral)


Nice Graphic
851. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Looks like 91L didnt want to follow my advice.

From lasts nights update,

Shear is very unfavorable to the north of 91L so it would be in its best interest to stay below 18N.


it kinda obeyed you by staying at 17N xD
The Shear from the SW of about 20kts is hurting 91L from developing!
Quoting JLPR:


it kinda obeyed you by staying at 17N xD


Well you get my point. The disturbance as a whole has made it too far north.
Joe Bastardi last eve. Make sure you read the comment on the EL NINO.


MONDAY 8 P.M.
BASEBALL IN COLORADO IN OCTOBER... HOW'S THAT WORKING OUT FOR YOU?

People like me love seeing this... the baseball playoffs in Denver this weekend as one of the biggest cold shots in October in years invades. Brutal cold is likely for the games out there this weekend, and it's liable to snow during the weekend. How much? Probably light but guess what, it's a problem.

And next Tuesday, if the series is back in PHL, look out. It's not going to be warm.

The fans at COORS field will be turning blue, along with the beer (see the Coors Commercial).

Ciao for now. *****

MONDAY 7:30 P.M.

NOT MUCH OF A NINO.

The latest MEI value has dropped to .75

There is an interesting comment on this on the MEI site:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

"... context of recent positive MEI values, this section features a comparison figure of weak-to-moderate El Nino events that emerge from La Nina conditions in the same calendar year. Note that there was a 30-year hiatus with no such transitions between 1976 and 2006, attesting mostly to the lack of La Nina conditions in this period (as well as the lack of fast transitions from La Nina into El Nino)...."

This observation by Klaus Wolter is very significant as the 1976 example was at the end of the cold PDO and the 2006 example is arguably in the starting time of the new cold PDO. During the warm PDO, the ninos ran rampant for the most part and most of those winters were warm.

The mei contributing value is .75 Current glaam is -.3 The soi contributor for 30 days The sign used is opposite and divided by 10, as is the 90 day is -.25 the 90 day is 0. The Lima contributor (30-day running mean) is plus .4 The Indian Ocean Dipole is giving us a value of 0 Latest Nino 3.4 is .7 the 1.2 is now MINUS .3 The running 90 day only is .8

The Bastardi Scale for all of this is calculated by adding all these, then dividing by all the factors and it comes out to .2. For my purposes, this has weakened to less than a Nino category for the overall global pattern as we are not even at .5 The fact is there are enough cold signals to balance out what warmth there is. Cooling is taking place in all the nino areas I refer my readers to the NOAA El Nino discussion site http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-stat us-fcsts-web.pdf


I would also like to remind the reader that when I see excellence in sites, I bring them up. The MEI site is outstanding and comes out of the CDC maproom and is maintained by Klaus Wolter. The enso updates, whether I agree or not with the ideas there, should be read by all that are serious about watching this event's effect on the weather. I am transparent with what I am doing and trying to show the whys before the fact. Since most people are skeptical on ideas they do not come up, I have no fear of people stealing my ideas until they are obviously the way to go. For instance, the idea put forth in a recent Drudge Report article by another met mimicked ideas released publicly by ACCUWEATHER ON JULY 15TH. So yes, I may see, with time, some of the ideas here come to front, but again, like that, and NOAA announcing in June the NINO idea we had here in late winter had merit, I expect these things I am showing you will only come to the front after the fact.

If indeed they have merit. That, of course, is not yet determined, which is why these ideas are not being touted and in fact, probably being chastised.

The one that has to be the most aggravating to people that research this is the Lima, Peru, temp. But notice what has happened. Nino 1.2 is colder than normal. Lima told us what was going on before the data actually showed nino 1.2 dropping that much. That -.3 is already below what the model said it would dip too.

Which leaves us with this question... are we having fun yet?

Ciao for now. ******
855. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Well you get my point. The disturbance as a whole has made it too far north.


yep I was impressed to see it jump from 14N to 17N
now 91L will have to fight to survive until better conditions become available, if they ever do
I believe by this time next year we will be back to LaNina status....its already starting to go the other direction....Said that 2 weeks ago!
91L is trying......
I see Parma is getting ready to make landfall again...


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Daily Chuckles in Comments section


Quoting JLPR:


yep I was impressed to see it jump from 14N to 17N
now 91L will have to fight to survive until better conditions become available, if they ever do


Exactly.

It does bear watching though over the next 48 hours.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Exactly.

It does bear watching though over the next 48 hours.


Its gotta stay south of 20N if it survives and even then shear might be too strong.
I believe this is true...that 91L is old TD8
From the RGB loop, it sure looks like a llc is starting - it gets covered up by the big burst of convection on the last couple of frames
GFS in particular has done beyond horrible this year when it comes to forcasting upper conditions this season. Models a day or two ago were somewhat indicating a better environment for this thing but as you can clearly see this morning as i pointing out a few days ago it continues to be impacted by moderate shear. Dont see 91L dont much of anything.

Models are just tools.
Quoting hurricane23:
GFS in particular has done beyond horrible this year when it comes to forcasting upper conditions this season. Models a day or two ago were somewhat indicating a better environment for this thing but as you can clearly see this morning as i pointing out a few days ago it continues to be impacted by moderate shear. Dont see 91L dont much of anything.

Models are just tools.



thank you 23 was about too say the same thing
Quoting hurricane23:
GFS in particular has done beyond horrible this year when it comes to forcasting upper conditions this season. Models a day or two ago were somewhat indicating a better environment for this thing but as you can clearly see this morning as i pointing out a few days ago it continues to be impacted by moderate shear. Dont see 91L dont much of anything.

Models are just tools.


The GFS never said the shear was going to be low where 91L is currently...

The simple fact is that 91L was drawn north by a weakness in the mid-latitude ridge...and with a sharp south (low) to north (high) shear gradient, this little jog has made all the difference. If our little LLC was down at 14, shear would be low!

The track forecast will continue to be important down the road, if some semblance of a LLC can be maintained.

If it bends to the southwest or WSW and gets into the eastern Caribbean at around 15-16N then it would likely develop. If it stays on a WNW heading...it will likely struggle for at least 48-60 hours.

868. P451


I've been lurking all this season and have not been posting. I have a question for y'all though. What do the "Ensemble Models" mean? When I look at the computer models and then the ensemble models, they seem radically different. Not just with this invest, but all year. TIA.
870. bwi
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
From the RGB loop, it sure looks like a llc is starting - it gets covered up by the big burst of convection on the last couple of frames


About 17n 52w, right?
how many times this year you seen the mode runs say there will be low shear 5 to 14 days out and have mode runs been right about that??
Just dont think upper level conditions will allow for much of anything to get going as noted by tpc in there last outlook.

Looks pretty good for the caribbean at this point.
Quoting hurricane23:
Just dont think upper level conditions will allow for much of anything to get going as noted by tpc in there last outlook.

Looks pretty good for the caribbean at this point.



yup same here



all so too me any thing pass 72hrs has for has mode runs go i find worth less they has they can be nevere right pass 72hrs
874. IKE
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