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Superstorm Sandy delivers a devastating blow to the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on October 30, 2012

In a stunning spectacle of atmospheric violence, Superstorm Sandy roared ashore in New Jersey last night with sustained winds of 90 mph and a devastating storm surge that crippled coastal New Jersey and New York. Sandy's record size allowed the historic storm to bring extreme weather to over 100 million Americans, from Chicago to Maine and from Michigan to Florida. Sandy's barometric pressure at landfall was 946 mb, tying the Great Long Island Express Hurricane of 1938 as the most powerful storm ever to hit the Northeast U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC. New York City experienced its worst hurricane since its founding in 1624, as Sandy's 9-foot storm surge rode in on top of a high tide to bring water levels to 13.88' at The Battery, smashing the record 11.2' water level recorded during the great hurricane of 1821. Damage from Superstorm Sandy will likely be in the tens of billions, making the storm one of the five most expensive disasters in U.S. history.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Superstorm Sandy taken at 10 am EDT Tuesday, October 30, 2012. Image credit: NASA GSFC.


Figure 2. Sandy's storm surge (green line) at New York City hit 9' near 9 pm EDT, right when water levels due to high tide (blue line.) The total storm tide (red line) reached 13.88 above Mean Lower Low Water, an all-time record for NYC. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.


Figure 3. Storm surge forced the Delaware River in Philadelphia to a crest of 10.62 feet at 4 a.m. EDT this morning, breaking the previous record of 10.50 feet set Apr. 17, 2011 and Nov. 25, 1950. Image credit: NOAA.

Sandy sets all-time low pressure records
Sandy's impact has been so severe over such a wide area that it is difficult to adequately document the event. I'll start with some of the major cities that set all-time low pressure records during Sandy, with the new record followed by the old record and date of occurrence (thanks go to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt for putting this list together):

Atlantic City, NJ: 28.01"/948mb 28.37"/961mb 3/6/1932

Philadelphia, PA: 28.12"/953mb 28.43"/963mb 3/13/1993

Harrisburg, PA: 28.46"/964mb 28.62"/969mb 1/3/1913

Scranton, PA: 28.69"/971mb 28.72"/973mb 2/25/1965

Trenton, NJ: 28.31"/958mb 28.43"/963mb 3/13/1993

Baltimore, MD: 28.49"/965mb 28.68"/971mb 3/3/1932

Harrisburg, PA: 28.46"/964mb 28.62"/969mb 1/3/1913

Cities that came close to setting their all-time low pressure record:

Newark, NJ: 28.51"/965mb 28.45"/963 3/13/1993

New York, NY: 28.53"/966mb 28.38"/961mb 3/1/1914

Washington D.C. 28.63"/969mb 28.54/966mb 3/13/1993

Lynchburg, VA: 29.12"/986mb 28.84"/977mb 3/6/1932

Elkins, WV: 29.22"/989mb 28.85"/977mb 2/25/1965

Sandy's snows
Sandy's snows have clobbered the town of Davis, WV with an estimated 26 - 28" of snow. Most of the town is without power, and winds are blowing 20 - 30 mph with 40 mph gusts. Sandy brought the snowiest October day on record to both Elkins, WV (7" of snow) and Bluefield, WV (4.7".)


Video 1. Multiple trees fall during powerful gusts during Superstorm Sandy's landfall in New Jersey Monday evening (warming: foul language.)

There's so much more to say about Sandy--including how the storm may have been influenced by climate change--but I'll save this for later posts, as it's time to get something posted.

Angela Fritz has a 2:30 pm EDT post that discusses the latest on Sandy's impact and forecast.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Sandy
Amazing waves at high tide and the storm is just beginning here in Seacoast NH!
Downed Sycamore
Downed Sycamore
Weehawken NJ
Davis, West Virginia - 4 PM
Davis, West Virginia - 4 PM
Snow increasing in intensity.
Corn Neck Road, Block Island, RI
Corn Neck Road, Block Island, RI
Harlem, NYC
Harlem, NYC
Part of the roof of my building ripped off during Hurricane Sandy and landed on two cars across the street

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Matthias1967:


Several hours ago a blogger contested the authenticity of a pic showing a boat lieing on railroad tracks. There's another image of this, almost down on this page. from another angle ny the MTA, published by AP.

Yes, I saw that. The sad thing is that the sick minds out there now makes question the authenticity of every photo, since so many have been faked or misattributed. Some of those questioned will turn out to be true and others false. Even as recently as five years ago, there was a very high probablity was any picture of storm damage or events was real. Now, we never know, and everyone jumps on every photo and uses social media to spread it at the speed of light. This is what happens when bloggers are considered "journalists", even when there's no process to prove anything they write or pictures they post are true and factual.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


hahhaa.. I always get joy out of busting people's chops when it comes to the misuse/interpretation of satellite images. But i actually think i did want that to be sandy



I actually got that from one of my Met professors, so I'll be busting his chops tomorrow. Maybe I'll get extra credit!!
Quoting stormchaser19:

Anyone Knows if its true that 75% of the animals in the NY Aquarium died

nothing about the wildlife but i found this

according to a statement from the organization. The aquarium is located on the Coney Island boardwalk, in the heart of an area where rescue operations are currently under way to save people stranded in their homes. There are reports that flooding has reached some people's roofs.

"The Wildlife Conservation Society's New York Aquarium, located in an evacuation zone in Coney Island, experienced severe flooding from the storm surge associated with Hurricane Sandy. The entire 14-acre facility was under water," a statement sent to mongabay.com reads. "As the water recedes, we will need time to assess the full extent of the damage.
Read more at http://news.mongabay.com/2012/1030-hance-wcs-aquar ium-sandy.html#XIhjl5Ao8kUGOOHJ.99
Quoting EricSpittle:

I'm guessing you've never seen one of those cranes being built, it will take much more than a few days to build a new 1000 foot tall crane. Generally it takes months to build the pieces, and then they have to ship said pieces in. Not sure how fast they can move vertically because they generally don't ever do more than one floor a day, but probably faster than that when they are just jacking up and not using the crane for anything until it is already up, but either way you are not looking at something fixed by next week.


Bloomberg said in his last presser something about putting a crane on the "roof.".

edit: to lower the dangling boom, not the counterweight, is my understanding
Quoting Neapolitan:
Incredible. And since Sandy is still spinning though the Northeast, further outages are sure to occur, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Sandy safely slide into 2nd.

For now...

(Of course, by comparison to this past summer's India outages, even the 1993 storm was a piker; 620 million were without for several hours.)

AP was reporting 8.1 million this morning.
Jet Star roller coaster hanging into the Atlantic Ocean in NJ

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
23:30 PM IST October 30 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northward and lays centered near 10.0N 82.0E or about 400 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 180 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The cyclone is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Predesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai around 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Nilam is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.0N to 11.5N west of 83.0E.

3 minute sustained winds of the cyclone is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is 5-10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 11.5N 80.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 13.0N 79.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
30 HRS: 13.8N 79.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Quoting falloch:
Just venting here as a complete amateur weather watcher - but after nearly two weeks of going to NOAA's website that was easy to access, all of a sudden I'm instructed to go to other sites, that don't show up very well, and make me hunt for specific geographical areas, while there's still a big stonking drama-queen of a storm (no, no longer a hurricane) stomping all over the eastern half of North America. This blog has been a lifesaver - as I watch from Scotland as my family and friends in NY, MA, PA, and ME are 'challenged', but just pissed that NOAA's hurricane website is easy to see, but once it's no longer a hurricane, you need to start hunting, which I don't think is fair, since the leftover weather from Sandy is still horrendous, and it's important to try and get info.

ALL PRAISE to Prof Masters and the wonderful Wunderblog - you've gotten me through a number of storms that might affect my family members that I've needed to view from far away. But your efforts for Sandy have been outstanding, and no doubt will continue to be so.

Yes, that transition from tropical cyclone to non-tropical was very confusing to a lot of users. I thought the NHC was going to post updates on the storm until winds dropped below tropical storm strength, but it seems like there are some clear lines of responsibility that the local NWS offices felt belong to them, and the NHC shouldn't keep posting updates. Maybe this will prompt the NWS to think about the idea of a single site resource to track serious storms over land rather than have to hunt through each individual NWS site for details. Once it devolves to individual NWS offices, you are trapped with some offices that do really good updates and others that are marginal at best. Don't know what the answer is but I clearly see it as a problem.
Quoting wxmod:
MODIS satellite photo today.



Both peninsulas of Michigan are missing according to that sat photo. And New Jersey think they got it bad!!!!
510. vanwx
Quoting sar2401:

OK, but that last view is too close to show the fate of the other houses in the area. It also seems odd that the storm would have taken down all those other houses while that one totally exposed structure is still standing with apparently very little damage. If you can find some pictures that show the area where the other houses are gone, that would be much more informative.


It's not so rare at all. My father was a disaster relief organizer for 35 yrs. The house could have been built to a more up-to-date code or by an owner/carpenter. The last renovation I built I'm sure was the only one with hurricane ties in the roof and earth quake walls.It's hard to get people to invest in protection when they're stressed by construction expenses. Ask Trump. That Trump tower is going to need a new crane anyway.
Quoting sar2401:

Sorry, I'm not trying to be difficult, nor do I think you were trying to fool anyone. I see the google image of what I guess was the area before the storm. Is Herbert St. the bridge the pictures were taken from? Is there a post storm google image I'm missing? I'm having a hard time matching up what was shown from the bridge with any missing structures on the google earth image.
As it is the only bridge there. Yes. That is the one the photos were taken from, facing towards the ocean. I don't understand. The post-storm images are the ones I previously posted. The ones you said that it is unlikely for a structure to be standing if others around it are gone. I guess, if you would like to count the missing structures you could zoom into Google street view and place yourself on the bridge then stroll the streets. Sometimes understanding involves a bit of leg work. Especially in the digital age.

This is another post-storm photo of the area from the Normandy Beach Facebook page. (Which is public btw, in case you want to take a look.)


Not sure what else to show you. But imagery aside. This is going to be a very long and difficult winter for many people.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Bloomberg said in his last presser something about putting a crane on the "roof.".

edit: to lower the dangling boom, not the counterweight, is my understanding

That's also a possibility, and one I had thought of. A properly braced and located jib crane could retrieve the boom so it could be dismantled and lowered more quickly and cheaply than jacking up a sister crane. My concern was what condition the roof is in and if it's structurally capable of supporting such a crane. I'm sure there are lots of engineers and steel workers looking at all the possibilities.
Meanwhile in the EPAC, Rosa is strengthening:

514. vanwx
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Bloomberg said in his last presser something about putting a crane on the "roof.".

edit: to lower the dangling boom, not the counterweight, is my understanding


There's always more than one way of doing things.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hearing on the news that they're expecting Sandy's damage totals to pass 20 billion, and will probably be on pair with Ike.


The "news" is placating nonsense. A study was conducted after Irene almost flooded the tunnels which is easily available. Estimate was at least 4 weeks and 55 billion just to refurbish subways due mostly to the fact that electronics and steel don't mix well with salt water. Duh. NYC is just a small percentage of the affected area, at least geographically speaking, and then there's all the business lost, so it seems reasonable to extrapolate or guesstimate the losses into the hundreds of billions, which we don't have and will have to borrow. How about it gutting what was left of the economy?




Quoting dogsgomoo:
As it is the only bridge there. Yes. That is the one the photos were taken from, facing towards the ocean. I don't understand. The post-storm images are the ones I previously posted. The ones you said that it is unlikely for a structure to be standing if others around it are gone. I guess, if you would like to count the missing structures you could zoom into Google street view and place yourself on the bridge then stroll the streets. Sometimes understanding involves a bit of leg work. Especially in the digital age.

This is another post-storm photo of the area form the Normandy Beach Facebook page. (Which is public btw, in case you want to take a look.)


Not sure what else to show you. But imagery aside. This is going to be a very long and difficult winter for many people.

Ah, I get it now. It's not the houses close to the bridge, it's the ones that are one street back. Sorry I was so confused. It appears that several have collapsed and at least two seem to be missing most of the structure. I guess they must have been unlucky enough to be in the peak flow area of the surge. Thanks for staying with me on this one. Indeed, it looks like a long hard winter there. The storm surge there looks like it was much worse than even the most pessimistic predictions. :(
517. wxmod
USA wind map. Put it in motion here:http://hint.fm/wind/

Miami NWS Disco

A SPOKE OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY IS LIKELY TO BREAK OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWARD...ARRIVING IN
SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF INCREASE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE
RAIN CHANCES ARE AS YET SLIGHT.
Quoting EricSpittle:
That is why I didn't spend a second of this storm on Twitter, much more intelligent people here.
Apparently just for kicks and attention, a fellow--@ComfortablySmug--spent much of last evening manufacturing rumors on Twitter (such as the one about the NY Stock Exchange being under three feet of water). He was outed today--he's an NYC-based hedge-fund analyst who also manages Republican Christopher R. Wight's campaign for the House of Representatives--and is now being rightly pilloried on the internet. Sort of a very pathetic, very high-visibility troll, in other words.
Quoting floridaT:
many are not aware a downed power line could be a block away, you step in water the line is in zap


Even worse and this happened in Florida.

Fire/Rescue responded to an accident with serious injuries - about 2 miles up the road there was another accident that caused a power pole to fall across the roadway and live wires were laying across that white line on the side of the road. When the fireman stepped on the white line he became the ground strap and was killed/electrocuted...

Now throw salt water in the mix -- not good....

P.S. That is why all new roads have a break in the white line every 1/4 - 1/2 mile. Those lines are put down with hot metal on the road. Ever wonder why they do not fade/chip/peel nearly as fast as the pain in your driveway?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Jet Star roller coaster hanging into the Atlantic Ocean in NJ


It was a crappy ride but R.I.P (didn't ride it but based on the POV videos it was horrible.)
Quoting sar2401:

Ah, I get it now. It's not the houses close to the bridge, it's the ones that are one street back. Sorry I was so confused. It appears that several have collapsed and at least two seem to be missing most of the structure. I guess they must have been unlucky enough to be in the peak flow area of the surge. Thanks for staying with me on this one. Indeed, it looks like a long hard winter there. The storm surge there looks like it was much worse than even the most pessimistic predictions. :(
Well, it's crazy to see the same thing repeated all up and down the NJ coast.

I think if I'd labeled the initial images clearer, some confusion could have been spared. Sorry about that.
Quoting Articuno:

It was a crappy ride but R.I.P (didn't ride it but based on the POV videos it was horrible.)


They can always rename it the rust bucket...
Most of the NYC skyline still black. Good webcam to check out looking across the harbor from staten island...

Link
525. vanwx
I and most us here would like to salute and thank the Geeks at WU who made a near flawless journey through the cyber storm of the last few days. Cheers to you guys.
I don't see a lot of members of this blog since early yesterday....Probably are without power
For those of you who have Direct TV, check channels 346-350. Earlier today they had coverage of this event from many different cities and stations. Very interesting to watch - not often us in Cali can see other areas newscasts. Prayers and hope from us here in Los Angeles to those impacted.
Quoting Dakster:


Even worse and this happened in Florida.

Fire/Rescue responded to an accident with serious injuries - about 2 miles up the road there was another accident that caused a power pole to fall across the roadway and live wires were laying across that white line on the side of the road. When the fireman stepped on the white line he became the ground strap and was killed/electrocuted...

Now throw salt water in the mix -- not good....

P.S. That is why all new roads have a break in the white line every 1/4 - 1/2 mile. Those lines are put down with hot metal on the road. Ever wonder why they do not fade/chip/peel nearly as fast as the pain in your driveway?


Thermoplastic.. it goes down HOT and melts into the asphalt/concrete thus giving it good grippage.
I think time square got vary luckey it could have been a lot wores in time square in new York any way any damg reports from time square? what about the whit house how did that make it
Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link



October 30 04:46 PM

by Joe D'Aleo

Was goping to do this myself, but Marc Morano beat me to the punch. Ryan gets a few mentions.

Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link -- Warmists Go Full 'Tabloid Climatology' & Claim Sandy Speaks! -- Round Up of Hurricane Sandy Reactions

Climate Depot's Marc Morano: 'These new 'Tabloid Climatology' claims by activists attempting to link any weather event to man-made global warming is disgusting. The 'new normal' for climate activists is their ever shifting claims as they morph the entire AGW argument to focus on extreme weather. They are exploiting any weather event to promote their religious like cause and a storm like Sandy is shamelessly used to gin up fear'

Tuesday, October 30, 2012By Marc Morano – Climate Depot


For continuous updates on Hurricane articles see here.

NOAA's Martin Hoerling rejects 'Frankenstorm' climate link: 'This is not some spell conjured upon us by great external forces....unless you believe in the monster flicks of Universal Studios fame!' -- Meteorologist Hoerling of NOAA: 'The immediate cause is most likely little more than the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm. Both frequent W. Atlantic in Oct....nothing unusual with that'

Martin Hoerling of NOAA on Sandy: 'As to underlying causes, neither the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over N. Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change' -- U.S. Govt Scientist Hoerling: 'Nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades'

Frankenscience: 'Sandy doesn't tell us anything about climate change' -- Prof. Pielke Jr.: 'We've done long-term trends with respect to hurricane damage in the United States, and it's very safe to say that regardless of how [Sandy] plays out, there's a century-long time series with no trend in it — and that's in damage, the number of landfalls, or the intensity of storms at landfall. So, if you are looking for signals of long-term climate change, focusing in on any one storm is the wrong way to go about it to begin with'

Sandy caused by global warming? 'The science of climate change & hurricanes does not support this conclusion' -- It's 'just not supported by science at this time' -- Houston Chronicle's Science guy Eric Berger: '...it is a big stretch to go from there to blaming Sandy on climate change. It's a stretch that is just not supported by science at this time'

Climatologist Dr. Patrick Michaels on Sandy: 'It's also consistent with a planet with colder temperatures as well as one with warmer ones' -- Michaels: 'More important, events like this are inevitable on a planet that has an ocean with the geography of the Atlantic (meaning a Gulf Stream-like feature), a large north-south continent on its western margin without a transverse mountain range to inhibit the merger of tropical warmth with polar cold, and four seasons in the temperate latitudes'

German Meteorological Expert Says: 'No Evidence Showing Link Between Storms And Global Warming' -- Meteorologist Dr. Karsten Brandt: 'Brandt said that by looking back at the global data available over the last decades, there's 'no indication or evidence showing there's been an increase in storm activity. The data don't show it.' He added: 'Luckily we don't need to worry much about increasing storms in the future'

Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: 'Remarkably, the U.S. is currently experiencing the longest-ever recorded period with no strikes of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane'

Hurricane Expert Chris Landsea: Any connection between AGW & hurricanes is 'almost certainly undetectable' -- '...and that this view is not particularly controversial among tropical cyclone climatologists. He concluded that hurricanes should not be the 'poster' representing a human influence on climate...Chris responded that asserting such a connection can be easily shown to be incorrect and thus risks some of the trust that the public has in scientists to play things straight'

Prof. Judith Curry on Sandy: 'Kevin Trenberth frequently says that global warming is affecting all of weather' -- Curry: 'Trenberth s probably right, but apart from the relative magnitude of the effect, this begs the question as to whether the effect is good or bad; arguably in terms of Atlantic hurricanes, the warming is resulting in fewer U.S. landfalls'

Talking Hurricane! Sandy Speaks: 'I am part of new normal' -- Warmists claim Sandy says: 'All U can be sure of is that the climate of past 20 & more centuries is gone'

Climate Depot Response: 'You can be sure that the 'Tabloid Climatologists' will pervert science and try to claim Sandy as some sort of 'proof' of man-made global warming. The 'new normal' for climate activists is their ever shifting claims as they morph the entire AGW argument to focus on extreme weather.'

Bad weather shuts down climatology vigil -- Sandy disrupts climate vigil in Boston: 'A storm many environmentalists see as linked to climate change has forced the end of a climate vigil in Boston'

Sandy called a 'climate twister'

Huh? Writing checks causes hurricanes! Warmist Bill McKibben: 'Chevron made largest political contribution ever last week, NYC swamped by largest storm this week. Pretty much a straight line, no?'

Climate Depot Response: 'McKibben and other warmists are practicing a form of witchcraft. They are attempting to convince the public that check writing, SUVs and home energy use are causing bad weather. They are exploiting any weather event to promote their religious like cause and a storm like Sandy is shamelessly used to gin up fear.'

Gore blames carbon dioxide for Sandy: 'Dirty energy makes dirty weather' -- Gore's Statement on Hurricane Sandy: 'Hurricane Sandy is a disturbing sign of things to come. We must heed this warning and act quickly to solve the climate crisis. Dirty energy makes dirty weather'

Warmists Bill McKibben & Joe Romm schlepping for Tabloid Climatology interviews: 'Even in midst of hurricanes, these people don't give up trying to tie weather to climate. It's shameless desperation'

'Blaming Sandy on greedy & industrious is just as mad as blaming it on gays' -- 'It's about doing that very Medieval thing of finding someone or something to blame for scary natural occurrences' -- Brendan O'Neill in UK Telegraph: 'After every natural disaster that occurs these days, we do two things. First, we guffaw or shake our heads in stern disapproval at those religious freaks who blame said disaster on mankind's sin. And second, we nod in vigorous agreement with those eco-experts who blame said disaster on man-made climate change'

Time Mag's Bryan Walsh: 'Sandy kills at least 16 people in the U.S. so far. For comparison, 117 Americans killed every day in cars' -- Update: Sandy's U.S. Death Toll Climbs To Over 30

Prof. Pielke Jr. on damage estimates: 'The current estimates of $20 billion would place Sandy at #17 all time out of 242 loss-producing storms 1900 to present (in the top 10%)' -- 'If the damage gets to $30 billion it would crack the top 10 and (top 5%). Right now it seems unlikely that Sandy will climb any higher on the table'

Meghan McCain (daughter of Sen. McCain) to GOP after Sandy: Do you still doubt climate change? '“So are we still going to go with climate change not being real fellow republicans?'

Climate Depot Response to Meghan McCain: 'Yes, we are still disputing man-made climate fears despite your inane tweets'

The Hill Newspaper: A '2012 study by UN's IPCC on extreme weather & climate change...finds that researchers currently have 'low confidence' in tying cyclone activity in recent decades to climate change'

Meteorologist Ryan Maue: 'Meghan McCain never demonstrated acumen necessary to understand hurricane/climate science. Nor did her dad'

Warmist Chris Mooney: 'Did Climate Change Supersize Hurricane Sandy?' -- 'This will be perceived as a climate-change-related event by much of the public' -- Mooney: 'Weird, extreme weather makes people worry, makes them think the world is changing. They aren't wrong about that'

Climate Depot Response: 'The public is much more intelligent than Mooney believes. Since ancient times, mankind has always worried about extreme weather. These new 'Tabloid Climatology' claims by climate activists attempting to link any weather event to man-made global warming is disgusting'

A Modest Hurricane Proposal for Honoring Climate Change Deniers -- 'Because the odds of extreme weather conditions have increased due to man-made climate change' -- 'The explosion of climate-change deniers has given us a wealth of names to choose from. No more Dorians and Humbertos! Bring on Hurricane Lungren and Tropical Storm Milloy'

'The New Normal – Everything Is The Worst Ever': 'The gubermint tells us Irene, Isaac & Sandy are the worst storms ever. The 2012 drought was worst ever. 2012 is the hottest year ever' -- 'These claims are all completely true, assuming that time began two years ago and you have the IQ of a turnip'

Good news for warmists?: Some people in the New York area face 168 straight involuntary Earth Hours -- Sandy leaves 'Millions Without Power Across Tri-State Area'

Climate Depot Background information:

HURRICANES/TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Teetering near historic lows:

'A new research study shows that overall global tropical cyclone activity has decreased to historically low levels during the past 5 years'

New paper finds global cyclones have reached a historical low: Geophysical Research Letters: 'Since 2006, global tropical cyclone ACE (cyclone energy) has decreased dramatically...' '...to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low'

World Meteorological Organization study: 'We cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data' – 'Landfalling tropical storm and hurricane activity in the US shows no long-term increase'

U.S. sees 2,232nd consecutive days without being hit by major hurricane – 'shatters' previous streak set in 1906 – Prof. Pielke Jr.: 'Since there won't be any intense hurricanes before next summer, the record will be shattered, with the days between intense hurricane landfalls likely to exceed 2,500 days'

Hurricanes Becoming Much Less Frequent In Florida: 'By June,2012 it will have been almost 7 years without a hurricane strike in Florida -the longest period on record' - 'Since 1950,hurricane strikes in Florida have been coming progressively further apart'

When it comes to hurricanes, climate change effects may be 'a wash' - 'A new report on extreme weather from UN IPCC, released last month, suggests that for hurricanes at least, the effects of global warming remain uncertain and likely so incremental that it might be difficult to even measure them' ... That's kind of a wash in my book,' said Chris Landsea'

The Decline In Major Hurricanes: 'The most active period for major hurricanes in the US was 1931-1960' -- 'The frequency of major hurricanes is now about half what it was 60 years ago. The most intense hurricane to ever hit the US occurred in 1935'

Hurricane Facts: 'According to NOAA, they have been on decline in US since the beginning of records in 19th century. The worst decade for major (category 3,4,5) hurricanes was 1940s' -- 'There has only been one US hurricane strike in last 1,130 days. 7,000 days have passed since a cat 5 hit US. In 1886, US was hit by 7 hurricanes...It has been over 6 years since a major one hit US. Deadliest hurricane to hit US happened in 1900. Florida hurricanes are in sharp decline. Florida has averaged nearly one per year since 1850. It has been over 6 years since Fla. was hit – the longest hurricane free period in that state.'

New Tropical Cyclone Research From China Reveals Major IPCC Prediction Fail

Third Quietest Hurricane Period On Record In The US: 'US hurricane strikes have been on the decline since NOAA started measuring them before the Civil War' -- 'Over the last six years, there have been officially six hurricane strikes in the US, the third quietest period on record. Six out of the seven quietest periods have been since 1975'

NOAA : 'No trend toward more frequent or stronger hurricanes': 'Links these cycles of busy & quiet hurricane period in 20th Century to natural changes in Atlantic Ocean temps'


Taz - Where is the Whit House in New York so I can look it up for you?
Quoting mobiledoom:


The "news" is placating nonsense. A study was conducted after Irene almost flooded the tunnels which is easily available. Estimate was at least 4 weeks and 55 billion just to refurbish subways due mostly to the fact that electronics and steel don't mix well with salt water. Duh. NYC is just a small percentage of the affected area, at least geographically speaking, and then there's all the business lost, so it seems reasonable to extrapolate or guesstimate the losses into the hundreds of billions, which we don't have and will have to borrow. How about it gutting what was left of the economy?






You're probably right about the losses although the hundreds of billions is doubtful. And for the rest of the working stiffs and business owners in the rest of America, I doubt this will gut the economy... WE make up he rest and NYC is not the entire economy.
Quoting Dakster:
Taz - Where is the Whit House in New York so I can look it up for you?



you sould no where the whit house is its in DC and am this wounder if there been any damg too the whit house or if evere thing made it out ok
now for some in new

Japanese airport closed after WWII bomb found


Link
Quoting Dakster:
Taz - Where is the Whit House in New York so I can look it up for you?


I'm sure he's aware of that, but Washington DC was affected as well, Virginia and Maryland both were hard-hit too. Don't be mean.
Quoting Tazmanian:



you sould no where the whit house is its in DC and am this wounder if there been any damg too the whit house or if evere thing made it out ok


Ohh you mean where the president is... The White House.

I think if there was any damage we would all know about it by now.
537. redux
nice wall of text.

i scanned until i saw the discredited/fake Dr Patrick Michaels then i stopped reading.

fyi, this guy basically frauded Virginia tax payers out of hundreds of thousands of dollars by pretending to be a state climatologist for Virginia.

Quoting LostTomorrows:


I'm sure he's aware of that, but Washington DC was affected as well, Virginia and Maryland both were hard-hit too. Don't be mean.




oh said I was being mean
Quoting Tazmanian:



you sould no where the whit house is its in DC and am this wounder if there been any damg too the whit house or if evere thing made it out ok


DC came out fine. I have friends in the area and they were spared the worst of it.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link



my comment;

yep thats right nothing to see here move along


moo moo moo moo



faster and faster we go
Quoting Dakster:


Ohh you mean where the president is... The White House.

I think if there was any damage we would all know about it by now.


But how we're the rest? I imaging there are no frauds on the other side either...
Quoting Tazmanian:




oh said I was being mean


He said I was being mean - or at least I thought it was directed at me...

I was just pulling your leg for some levity on the blog.
DC and MD are fine, just some trees down and power out.
Unfortunately 1 fatality, though. Someone was killed when a tree came through the roof down in Pasadena, MD.

Annapolis and the Inner Harbor of Baltimore still seeing some flooding though, with high tide coming and the South winds piling everything up.
Thanks sar2401 - I am so amateur that I don't know how to post you properly - but thanks for your support on my comment. I'm one of those folks who rely on Wunderblog as an amateur - but not all of us are tin-hat HAARP devotees; just trying to find out what's happening, trying to reckon with a learning curve of scientific diagrams, but evading the crazy MSM weather/sensational news.
Climate Change and Sandy talk coming up on MSNBC's Hardball. (Rerun from 5:00 p.m. broadcast)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Climate Change and Sandy talk coming up on MSNBC's Hardball. (Rerun from 5:00 p.m. broadcast)


Ugghhh... Thanks for the warning.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Apparently just for kicks and attention, a fellow--@ComfortablySmug--spent much of last evening manufacturing rumors on Twitter (such as the one about the NY Stock Exchange being under three feet of water). He was outed today--he's an NYC-based hedge-fund analyst who also manages Republican Christopher R. Wight's campaign for the House of Representatives--and is now being rightly pilloried on the internet. Sort of a very pathetic, very high-visibility troll, in other words.


What's really scary is that, in addition to being a real slimeball liar, he had people listening to him like he was a journalist. From the linked story:

Even without a verified identity, Comfortably Smug built an impressive list of over 6,000 followers, some of whom work for outlets like Reuters, NPR, and The Daily Beast.

This is how we're getting news now - from anonymous liars who make things up, especially if it might help their hedge fund or candidate. I realize that getting the "BREAKING" news is all important now, but having reporters from Reuters and NPR picking up this guy's lies and broadcasting them as truth...I don't know what else to say, except maybe turning off your Twitter account isn't a bad idea.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link



October 30 04:46 PM

by Joe D'Aleo

Was goping to do this myself, but Marc Morano beat me to the punch. Ryan gets a few mentions.

Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link -- Warmists Go Full 'Tabloid Climatology' & Claim Sandy Speaks! -- Round Up of Hurricane Sandy Reactions

Climate Depot's Marc Morano: 'These new 'Tabloid Climatology' claims by activists attempting to link any weather event to man-made global warming is disgusting. The 'new normal' for climate activists is their ever shifting claims as they morph the entire AGW argument to focus on extreme weather. They are exploiting any weather event to promote their religious like cause and a storm like Sandy is shamelessly used to gin up fear'

Tuesday, October 30, 2012By Marc Morano – Climate Depot


For continuous updates on Hurricane articles see here.

NOAA's Martin Hoerling rejects 'Frankenstorm' climate link: 'This is not some spell conjured upon us by great external forces....unless you believe in the monster flicks of Universal Studios fame!' -- Meteorologist Hoerling of NOAA: 'The immediate cause is most likely little more than the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm. Both frequent W. Atlantic in Oct....nothing unusual with that'

Martin Hoerling of NOAA on Sandy: 'As to underlying causes, neither the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over N. Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change' -- U.S. Govt Scientist Hoerling: 'Nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades'

Frankenscience: 'Sandy doesn't tell us anything about climate change' -- Prof. Pielke Jr.: 'We've done long-term trends with respect to hurricane damage in the United States, and it's very safe to say that regardless of how [Sandy] plays out, there's a century-long time series with no trend in it — and that's in damage, the number of landfalls, or the intensity of storms at landfall. So, if you are looking for signals of long-term climate change, focusing in on any one storm is the wrong way to go about it to begin with'

Sandy caused by global warming? 'The science of climate change & hurricanes does not support this conclusion' -- It's 'just not supported by science at this time' -- Houston Chronicle's Science guy Eric Berger: '...it is a big stretch to go from there to blaming Sandy on climate change. It's a stretch that is just not supported by science at this time'

Climatologist Dr. Patrick Michaels on Sandy: 'It's also consistent with a planet with colder temperatures as well as one with warmer ones' -- Michaels: 'More important, events like this are inevitable on a planet that has an ocean with the geography of the Atlantic (meaning a Gulf Stream-like feature), a large north-south continent on its western margin without a transverse mountain range to inhibit the merger of tropical warmth with polar cold, and four seasons in the temperate latitudes'

German Meteorological Expert Says: 'No Evidence Showing Link Between Storms And Global Warming' -- Meteorologist Dr. Karsten Brandt: 'Brandt said that by looking back at the global data available over the last decades, there's 'no indication or evidence showing there's been an increase in storm activity. The data don't show it.' He added: 'Luckily we don't need to worry much about increasing storms in the future'

Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: 'Remarkably, the U.S. is currently experiencing the longest-ever recorded period with no strikes of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane'

Hurricane Expert Chris Landsea: Any connection between AGW & hurricanes is 'almost certainly undetectable' -- '...and that this view is not particularly controversial among tropical cyclone climatologists. He concluded that hurricanes should not be the 'poster' representing a human influence on climate...Chris responded that asserting such a connection can be easily shown to be incorrect and thus risks some of the trust that the public has in scientists to play things straight'

Prof. Judith Curry on Sandy: 'Kevin Trenberth frequently says that global warming is affecting all of weather' -- Curry: 'Trenberth s probably right, but apart from the relative magnitude of the effect, this begs the question as to whether the effect is good or bad; arguably in terms of Atlantic hurricanes, the warming is resulting in fewer U.S. landfalls'

Talking Hurricane! Sandy Speaks: 'I am part of new normal' -- Warmists claim Sandy says: 'All U can be sure of is that the climate of past 20 & more centuries is gone'

Climate Depot Response: 'You can be sure that the 'Tabloid Climatologists' will pervert science and try to claim Sandy as some sort of 'proof' of man-made global warming. The 'new normal' for climate activists is their ever shifting claims as they morph the entire AGW argument to focus on extreme weather.'

Bad weather shuts down climatology vigil -- Sandy disrupts climate vigil in Boston: 'A storm many environmentalists see as linked to climate change has forced the end of a climate vigil in Boston'

Sandy called a 'climate twister'

Huh? Writing checks causes hurricanes! Warmist Bill McKibben: 'Chevron made largest political contribution ever last week, NYC swamped by largest storm this week. Pretty much a straight line, no?'

Climate Depot Response: 'McKibben and other warmists are practicing a form of witchcraft. They are attempting to convince the public that check writing, SUVs and home energy use are causing bad weather. They are exploiting any weather event to promote their religious like cause and a storm like Sandy is shamelessly used to gin up fear.'

Gore blames carbon dioxide for Sandy: 'Dirty energy makes dirty weather' -- Gore's Statement on Hurricane Sandy: 'Hurricane Sandy is a disturbing sign of things to come. We must heed this warning and act quickly to solve the climate crisis. Dirty energy makes dirty weather'

Warmists Bill McKibben & Joe Romm schlepping for Tabloid Climatology interviews: 'Even in midst of hurricanes, these people don't give up trying to tie weather to climate. It's shameless desperation'

'Blaming Sandy on greedy & industrious is just as mad as blaming it on gays' -- 'It's about doing that very Medieval thing of finding someone or something to blame for scary natural occurrences' -- Brendan O'Neill in UK Telegraph: 'After every natural disaster that occurs these days, we do two things. First, we guffaw or shake our heads in stern disapproval at those religious freaks who blame said disaster on mankind's sin. And second, we nod in vigorous agreement with those eco-experts who blame said disaster on man-made climate change'

Time Mag's Bryan Walsh: 'Sandy kills at least 16 people in the U.S. so far. For comparison, 117 Americans killed every day in cars' -- Update: Sandy's U.S. Death Toll Climbs To Over 30

Prof. Pielke Jr. on damage estimates: 'The current estimates of $20 billion would place Sandy at #17 all time out of 242 loss-producing storms 1900 to present (in the top 10%)' -- 'If the damage gets to $30 billion it would crack the top 10 and (top 5%). Right now it seems unlikely that Sandy will climb any higher on the table'

Meghan McCain (daughter of Sen. McCain) to GOP after Sandy: Do you still doubt climate change? '“So are we still going to go with climate change not being real fellow republicans?'

Climate Depot Response to Meghan McCain: 'Yes, we are still disputing man-made climate fears despite your inane tweets'

The Hill Newspaper: A '2012 study by UN's IPCC on extreme weather & climate change...finds that researchers currently have 'low confidence' in tying cyclone activity in recent decades to climate change'

Meteorologist Ryan Maue: 'Meghan McCain never demonstrated acumen necessary to understand hurricane/climate science. Nor did her dad'

Warmist Chris Mooney: 'Did Climate Change Supersize Hurricane Sandy?' -- 'This will be perceived as a climate-change-related event by much of the public' -- Mooney: 'Weird, extreme weather makes people worry, makes them think the world is changing. They aren't wrong about that'

Climate Depot Response: 'The public is much more intelligent than Mooney believes. Since ancient times, mankind has always worried about extreme weather. These new 'Tabloid Climatology' claims by climate activists attempting to link any weather event to man-made global warming is disgusting'

A Modest Hurricane Proposal for Honoring Climate Change Deniers -- 'Because the odds of extreme weather conditions have increased due to man-made climate change' -- 'The explosion of climate-change deniers has given us a wealth of names to choose from. No more Dorians and Humbertos! Bring on Hurricane Lungren and Tropical Storm Milloy'

'The New Normal – Everything Is The Worst Ever': 'The gubermint tells us Irene, Isaac & Sandy are the worst storms ever. The 2012 drought was worst ever. 2012 is the hottest year ever' -- 'These claims are all completely true, assuming that time began two years ago and you have the IQ of a turnip'

Good news for warmists?: Some people in the New York area face 168 straight involuntary Earth Hours -- Sandy leaves 'Millions Without Power Across Tri-State Area'

Climate Depot Background information:

HURRICANES/TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Teetering near historic lows:

'A new research study shows that overall global tropical cyclone activity has decreased to historically low levels during the past 5 years'

New paper finds global cyclones have reached a historical low: Geophysical Research Letters: 'Since 2006, global tropical cyclone ACE (cyclone energy) has decreased dramatically...' '...to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low'

World Meteorological Organization study: 'We cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data' – 'Landfalling tropical storm and hurricane activity in the US shows no long-term increase'

U.S. sees 2,232nd consecutive days without being hit by major hurricane – 'shatters' previous streak set in 1906 – Prof. Pielke Jr.: 'Since there won't be any intense hurricanes before next summer, the record will be shattered, with the days between intense hurricane landfalls likely to exceed 2,500 days'

Hurricanes Becoming Much Less Frequent In Florida: 'By June,2012 it will have been almost 7 years without a hurricane strike in Florida -the longest period on record' - 'Since 1950,hurricane strikes in Florida have been coming progressively further apart'

When it comes to hurricanes, climate change effects may be 'a wash' - 'A new report on extreme weather from UN IPCC, released last month, suggests that for hurricanes at least, the effects of global warming remain uncertain and likely so incremental that it might be difficult to even measure them' ... That's kind of a wash in my book,' said Chris Landsea'

The Decline In Major Hurricanes: 'The most active period for major hurricanes in the US was 1931-1960' -- 'The frequency of major hurricanes is now about half what it was 60 years ago. The most intense hurricane to ever hit the US occurred in 1935'

Hurricane Facts: 'According to NOAA, they have been on decline in US since the beginning of records in 19th century. The worst decade for major (category 3,4,5) hurricanes was 1940s' -- 'There has only been one US hurricane strike in last 1,130 days. 7,000 days have passed since a cat 5 hit US. In 1886, US was hit by 7 hurricanes...It has been over 6 years since a major one hit US. Deadliest hurricane to hit US happened in 1900. Florida hurricanes are in sharp decline. Florida has averaged nearly one per year since 1850. It has been over 6 years since Fla. was hit – the longest hurricane free period in that state.'

New Tropical Cyclone Research From China Reveals Major IPCC Prediction Fail

Third Quietest Hurricane Period On Record In The US: 'US hurricane strikes have been on the decline since NOAA started measuring them before the Civil War' -- 'Over the last six years, there have been officially six hurricane strikes in the US, the third quietest period on record. Six out of the seven quietest periods have been since 1975'

NOAA : 'No trend toward more frequent or stronger hurricanes': 'Links these cycles of busy & quiet hurricane period in 20th Century to natural changes in Atlantic Ocean temps'








The map shows the 10-year average (2000–2009) global mean temperature anomaly relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The largest temperature increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula.



Global-average Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies


Well i don't want say nothing, the images speak for themselves!!!
In Other Non-Weather Related News:
Disney Buys Lucasfilm; Eyes Release Of 'Star Wars: Episode 7' For 2015

Link
550. NJ2S
Quoting Articuno:

Looks photoshopped O_o

they showed this picture on TWC
Quoting Tazmanian:



you sould no where the whit house is its in DC and am this wounder if there been any damg too the whit house or if evere thing made it out ok


wow, that one gave me a headache trying to read it. lol ;)
A bit of good news -- the 20 fishermen stranded on Portsmouth Island made it!
http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/Stranded-Fishe rmen-Waiting-On-Ferry-176344431.html

Have to admit I'm surprised. Must have been quite a night...
Quoting stormchaser19:






The map shows the 10-year average (2000–2009) global mean temperature anomaly relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The largest temperature increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula.



Global-average Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies


Well i don't want say nothing, the images speak for themselves!!!


You're right. They do show a good short term trend. Curious though that during the hight of the industrial revolution around the turn of the century, when there was massive air pollution, even greater than today, the temps were lower... As they say.. Just sayin.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
2:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message


At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam remained practically stationary and lays centered near 10.0N 82.0E or 400 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 180 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai between 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Nalim is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 13.5N west of 84.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of Nalim is estimated at around 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15º n. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is 5-10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 11.5N 80.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 13.0N 79.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
39 HRS: 15.3N 78.3E - Low Pressure Area
Quoting imipak:
A bit of good news -- the 20 fishermen stranded on Portsmouth Island made it!
http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/Stranded-Fishe rmen-Waiting-On-Ferry-176344431.html

Have to admit I'm surprised. Must have been quite a night...


Thanks, very good news indeed!
Hey all! I wrote the Long Island power company to find out when they think that power will be back up and running in most neighborhoods and they told me a minimum of 10 days. If it takes that long for them to fix the power, then do you think most of the houses have hurricane damage? Thanks all!
I disagree with this article, Yes it's true the European model was the best with sandy, But the american GFS it's been better all the season
Link
Quoting mobiledoom:


The "news" is placating nonsense. A study was conducted after Irene almost flooded the tunnels which is easily available. Estimate was at least 4 weeks and 55 billion just to refurbish subways due mostly to the fact that electronics and steel don't mix well with salt water. Duh. NYC is just a small percentage of the affected area, at least geographically speaking, and then there's all the business lost, so it seems reasonable to extrapolate or guesstimate the losses into the hundreds of billions, which we don't have and will have to borrow. How about it gutting what was left of the economy?




Thank you, ty, ty. I posted this morning that I remembered hearing or reading that it would be at the least a month if the NY subway flooded before it would be up and running again. I could not remember where I heard/read it though. I wrote that I was pondering if the powers that be were not revealing that info this morning so as to not start a panic. I know if it were me and I lived there with no car, my place of employment was destroyed and I had a family to support, I would be begging anybody and everybody anywhere to put my family up for a while so we could get out of there.

TY again,
Dsn
Quoting Pirate999:


You're right. They do show a good short term trend. Curious though that during the hight of the industrial revolution around the turn of the century, when there was massive air pollution, even greater than today, the temps were lower... As they say.. Just sayin.


That actually makes sense. Solid particulates in the air reflect sunlight and cool the environment.
Quoting imipak:
The Daily Mail (a pretty unreliable source, one of the less pleasant UK tabloids) claimed 500 people were left on the barrier islands, though of course they don't give a source for that. Best hopes for all who were out there, anyway...


I believe they are talking about Brigantine, NJ. That's the barrier island where the seawall failed early afternoon yesterday with an estimated 70% of the population (I do not know #'s) ignoring mandatory evacuation orders (per local police and mayor).

I have yet to see any news from that location and the last I saw people were trapped in attics and on second floors by surge.

If anyone has any info please report it since I clearly missed it.
Quoting connie1976:
Hey all! I wrote the Long Island power company to find out when they think that power will be back up and running in most neighborhoods and they told me a minimum of 10 days. If it takes that long for them to fix the power, then do you think most of the houses have hurricane damage? Thanks all!


Maybe and maybe not. In Houston during Ike we had 4 million people without power and in some cases it took 10 days or more to restore. Except for Galveston and Bolivar, we had very little home damage despite the massive and long power outages. So, I'd say it depends. Houses tend to be more resilient than the power lines.
Quoting PensacolaDoug (#530):
Scientists reject Sandy/Climate Link



October 30 04:46 PM

by Joe D'Aleo

[snip]
Wow, that's quite a collection of blather, even for D'Aleo. A real Gish Gallop featuring comments from the debunked and discredited--Pielke, Hoerling, Michaels--interspersed with cherry-picked, out-of-context statements from other scientists, sprinkled with ad hominems, and thoroughly topped with obfuscatory bits of info that have no bearing on reality. That's not the first such diatribe I've seen today; with multiple-recordbreaker Sandy occurring on top of the increasing number and severity of extreme weather events the entire globe is seeing, the denialists doubtless realize their side and POV have been diminished even further, so such manufactured and dishonest rants are understandable, if not forgivable.

Anyone who tries to claim--even discounting Sandy--that the more than 3.4 million metric tons of long-lasting, heat-trapping, fossil fuel-based CO2 we humans pump into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day has no effect on the weather or the climate is in absolute denial of reality. Period. The climate is changing far faster than scientists predicted even a few short years ago, and there's no sign of that trend reversing.
Quoting Pirate999:


Maybe and maybe not. In Houston during Ike we had 4 million people without power and in some cases it took 10 days or more to restore. Except for Galveston and Bolivar, we had very little home damage despite the massive and long power outages. So, I'd say it depends. Houses tend to be more resilient than the power lines.


Thank you so much! :) It's crazy how this storm can affect people who don't even live there! (I live in
Florida)
Link

NASA Hurricanes web page headlines "Sandy was still a hurricane after landfall". Hmmm


Sandy Was Still a Hurricane After Landfall

On Oct. 29, 2012 at 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Sandy was just 10 miles (15 km) southwest of Philadelphia, Penn., near 39.8 North and 75.4 West. Sandy was still a hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120 kph) and moving northwest at 18 mph (30 kph). Sandy's minimum central pressure had risen to 952 millibars. The hurricane-force-winds extended 90 miles (150 km) east of the center of circulation. Tropical-storm-force winds, however, went much further, as far as 485 miles (780 km).

NASA's GOES Project created a "full-disk view" of NOAA's GOES satellite data, that captured a global view of Hurricane Sandy's birth to landfall. The animation of NOAA's GOES-13 and GOES-15 satellite observations were combined from Oct. 21-30, 2012 and showed the birth of Tropical Storm Sandy in the Caribbean Sea, the intensification and movement of Sandy in the Atlantic Ocean along the U.S. East Coast, and Hurricane Sandy make landfall in N.J. on Oct. 29 and move inland to Penn.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Quoting JeffMasters:
From very unofficial sources, I put together this list of largest Weather-related power outages in U.S. history:

1. "Superstorm" Blizzard 1993 10,000,000 customers
2. Hurricane Ike 2008 7,500,000
3. "Superstorm" Sandy 2012 7,400,000
4. Hurricane Isabel 2003 6,000,000
5. Hurricane Frances 2004 6,000,000

If anyone has a better source of info on this, I'd like to hear about it.

Jeff Masters
jmasters@wunderground.com


Here ya go Doc:Link

ore than 8.4 million people in Sandy’s path, 7% of the U.S. population, remain without power Tuesday afternoon, even as the worst of the storm has passed. Here are the latest updates on power outages in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states. Click your utility to see the latest figures from your provider. For up-to-the minute news, visit our live blog.

Updated: Oct. 30, 3:15 p.m.

New York City and Westchester:
Consolidated Edison
811,039 people affected

New Jersey:
Jersey Central
966,978 people affected
PSE&G
1.4 million people affected
Atlantic City Electric
182,197 people affected

Long Island:
LIPA
942,633 people affected

Connecticut:
Connecticut Light & Power
458,355 people affected

Massachussetts:
National Grid
162,113 people affected

Delaware:
Delmarva
42,070 people affected

Pennsylvania:
West Penn Power
215,604 people affected
PPL
378,875 people affected

West Virginia:
APCO
149,015 people affected

Maryland and Washington D.C.:
Pepco
11,221 people affected

Virginia:
Dominion Electric
77,204 people affected

New Hampshire:
PSNH
105,594 people affected

Rhode Island:
National Grid
109,690 people affected



So Maines 34,000 number is too small to be included??? THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE ON THIS BLOG WHO LIVE HERE!!!!!! I hate it how TWC and lots of other people totally ignore Maine like it is some distant province. The only thing we can do to get on the national news is a prostitution scandal???? Shame on you news people and whoever else leaves us out in a disaster that affected us pretty bad!!
566. redux
Nea--

i don't see how those rants could ever be forgivable.

i was really annoyed the 2 mins i flipped to fox news, bastardi was on giving an editorial about global warming AS new york was flooding.

Quoting sonofagunn:


That actually makes sense. Solid particulates in the air reflect sunlight and cool the environment.


Very true. Good point and they do reflect. But co2 doesn't reflect and there was arguably more raw co2 ejected with the pollution then than there is now. Just curious. I see trends over millenniums, not the short life time of humans on earth and defiantly not 20 or 100 years. We think we can explain this, on both sides, but we can't explain it any more than we can explain the rest of the weather. If we think we can than we are truly a delusional breed.
Watching some pretty nasty storm roll through a little ways east of me:

569. redux
id also like to point that metro baltimore has a different power company than washingtons pepco.

bge still has 120K without power. a total of 300 K out of 1,200,000 customers lost power.

http://www.bge.com/customerservice/stormsoutages/ currentoutages/pages/default.aspx
570. redux
Quoting stormchaser19:
I disagree with this article, Yes it's true the European model was the best with sandy, But the american GFS it's been better all the season
Link


why was it the best? because it latched onto the blocking high forming when everyone else took it out to sea.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Watching some pretty nasty storm roll through a little ways east of me:



Darn.. I think my brothers house is under that red area.. Need to drop him a line.
Quoting sar2401:

One of our biggest problems in emergency management was rumor control. Now we have FB and twitter spreading rumors, gossip, and just plain lies at the speed of light. Because of the sickos that photoshop up pictures to look realistic to the untrained eye, those same people on FB and twitter now say "No, it's true, just look at this picture". Storms tend to bring out the best and worst in us as a society. The worst of us now have ways to cause way more problems than even five years ago. I'm glad I'm retired. :)


Amen SAR! I retired 5 months ago as a District Chief in our local fire department. TS Allison, Hurricane Katrina (recovery outside of my jurisdiction), Hurricane Rita, and Hurricane Ike are firmly planted in my past experiences...from pulling citizens out of the San Jacinto River, to 12 hour a day shifts on an ambulance at the Astrodome, to assisting in damage assessment and SAR on Galveston Island, to running a FEMA Pod...I am glad I have retired also. Rumors and the "Grapevine" were like an infectious disease in our community due to social media blasts from panicked and mischevious people. My department relied on Weather Underground, during Ike, to keep us up to date and well-informed on what we would be dealing with after it was over. For this...I thank everyone on here now...and especially Dr Masters. I have been saying prayers and sending them with the wind up North. I know, professionally, what the Eastern Seaboard will be going through for the next few weeks and months, and would like everyone here to remember to pray for every emergency services worker, every power company employee, every volunteer community response task force, every Red Cross worker...and the untold thousands of people involved in restoring a large portion of our great county back to some sense of normalcy.
Quoting JeffMasters:
From very unofficial sources, I put together this list of largest Weather-related power outages in U.S. history:

1. "Superstorm" Blizzard 1993 10,000,000 customers
2. Hurricane Ike 2008 7,500,000
3. "Superstorm" Sandy 2012 7,400,000
4. Hurricane Isabel 2003 6,000,000
5. Hurricane Frances 2004 6,000,000

If anyone has a better source of info on this, I'd like to hear about it.

Jeff Masters
jmasters@wunderground.com



I just came across the following quote on the france24.com site:

quote:

By Tuesday afternoon, the number of US homes and businesses without power had risen to 8.1 million, according to the Department of Energy - a figure fast approaching the 8.4 million outage peak during last year%u2019s Hurricane Irene.

http://energy.gov/articles/responding-post-tropic al-cyclone-sandy-doe-situation-reports


http://www.france24.com/en/20121030-sandy-another -storm-blackout-usa-aging-power-grid-new-york-elec tricity-energy

----------

Going to DOE website I find quote:

As of 2:00 pm EDT October 30, the impacted States report a total of 8,204,914 customers without power in the affected areas. There is some increase in outages as the storm moves west-northwest. See State totals below.



Quoting Pirate999:


In Houston during Ike we had 4 million people without power and in some cases it took 10 days or more to restore. Except for Galveston and Bolivar, we had very little home damage despite the massive and long power outages.
This may have been true in Houston, but more places than Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula were affected by Ike. Surfside and Quintana were badly hit, and roofs (and more) were damaged up as far at least as Pearland. The blue tarps were everywhere; my roof in Lake Jackson had to be replaced, partly because a neighbor's tree fell on the garage roof, but partly because shingles blew off. Fences were down all over my neighborhood--probably a derecho. In any storm, there's going to be damage that the media will not cover because it's not in well-known locations or because it's not as serious as the damage elsewhere. But that doesn't mean it was "very little."
Just another blobservation that has to do with earlier today, but that mass in the eastern Caribbean still looks to be going strong. It seems Sandy drew it up and was kind of unraveling it, and now it seems it's escaped her influence and is going into the central Caribbean.

Don't follow big sis, Blobby! Although it would be interesting to see a Valerie out of this or the wave in the eastern Atlantic. They both seem to have a moderate spin to them.
Quoting Pirate999:


Maybe and maybe not. In Houston during Ike we had 4 million people without power and in some cases it took 10 days or more to restore. Except for Galveston and Bolivar, we had very little home damage despite the massive and long power outages. So, I'd say it depends. Houses tend to be more resilient than the power lines.

Don't know how it works back east but my parents had no structure damage in ike and I think it took 3 weeks to get the power back on. Problem was twofold. Their electric pole only served 2 houses in a well populated area and it was destroyed. Also they had to make sure the lines did not get damaged at the house connecftion. Fuses will blow on the lines so power will go on and off. They will try to get the most people they can get on the fastest; so the easy lines will be fixed first. I give major props to our local crews; they worked tirelessly but there is only so much daylight. Also watch out for fires when the power comes back on.

Quoting NJ2S:

they showed this picture on TWC

I know more then them. :P
All recon flights into the Superstorm otherwise known as Sandy.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All recon flights into the Superstorm otherwise known as Sandy.


That's neat.
For Frances, I lost power for seven days. As soon as power was restored, Jeanne came along and another five days without juice. The ironic thing is after Wilma, which ripped my roof off, I had power the next day.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For Frances, I lost power for seven days. As soon as power was restored, Jeanne came along and another five days without juice. The ironic thing is after Wilma, which ripped my roof off, I had power the next day.

That's funny.
Quoting carlakid50:

Don't know how it works back east but my parents had no structure damage in ike and I think it took 3 weeks to get the power back on. Problem was twofold. Their electric pole only served 2 houses in a well populated area and it was destroyed. Also they had to make sure the lines did not get damaged at the house connecftion. Fuses will blow on the lines so power will go on and off. They will try to get the most people they can get on the fastest; so the easy lines will be fixed first. I give major props to our local crews; they worked tirelessly but there is only so much daylight. Also watch out for fires when the power comes back on.



You are spot-on Carla. My subdivision was without power for 14 days after Ike because we had a tree on a feeder line in a hard-to-access area. The power company told our department that they had a priority list...after the hospitals, police departments, and fire departments...to restore power to the largest amount of customers with the least amount of difficulty; then tackle the "tough problems". Unfortunatley, the fire station I was stationed at during Ike was only open one week before Ike, so it was not on "the list"...much to the chagrin of the houses surrounding our station ;). Luckily, our station had a natural gas generator that performed flawlessly, 24 hours a day, for over 17 days until power was restored to it's area.
Quoting sonofagunn:


That actually makes sense. Solid particulates in the air reflect sunlight and cool the environment.
Actually, they did not have any pollution controls, releasing a lot of soot, they were not releasing as much CO2 in 1880 - 1940s as we do today.
Quoting RetiredChiefP:


You are spot-on Carla. My subdivision was without power for 14 days after Ike because we had a tree on a feeder line in a hard-to-access area. The power company told our department that they had a priority list...after the hospitals, police departments, and fire departments...to restore power to the largest amount of customers with the least amount of difficulty; then tackle the "tough problems". Unfortunatley, the fire station I was stationed at during Ike was only open one week before Ike, so it was not on "the list"...much to the chagrin of the houses surrounding our station ;). Luckily, our station had a natural gas generator that performed flawlessly, 24 hours a day, for over 17 days until power was restored to it's area.


Addition to post...

Our gas bill for that month was over $7,000 dollars! Ouch!
I may miss the answers but did "we" get data that can be used in the future. I have heard that some of the weather satellites are old or useless. Also I know some stations on earth go out for one reason or another. Props to this blog and Dr Masters. I have counted on u for hurricane forecasts for a long time. I also count on you to let me know what happens in Haiti and those other foreign places like Maine;)

Well now I know why I read not post. Great map of the recon flights. Props to all of u
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For Frances, I lost power for seven days. As soon as power was restored, Jeanne came along and another five days without juice. The ironic thing is after Wilma, which ripped my roof off, I had power the next day.


You said the 'W' storm...

I lost power for 3 weeks after the 'W' storm.
Quoting lhwhelk:
This may have been true in Houston, but more places than Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula were affected by Ike. Surfside and Quintana were badly hit, and roofs (and more) were damaged up as far at least as Pearland. The blue tarps were everywhere; my roof in Lake Jackson had to be replaced, partly because a neighbor's tree fell on the garage roof, but partly because shingles blew off. Fences were down all over my neighborhood--probably a derecho. In any storm, there's going to be damage that the media will not cover because it's not in well-known locations or because it's not as serious as the damage elsewhere. But that doesn't mean it was "very little."


I'm in Vernon Parish, La and my house had new shingles from Rita, Ike and Gustav. I also had a tree down from Ike. And of course, loss of electric.


LGA
Does anyone know what the NYC surge from Donna was with out the tide factored in. Or how close to high/low tide she hit?

I want to see for myself just how anomalous Sandy was. For me, part of that involves looking at her actual surge.

Battery topped out around 14 feet, five of that was from tide... yields a 9 foot surge.

I was looking at Gloria which hit at low tide and brought a seven foot sea level, so i figure she must have brought about 7 feet in pure surge.

Given Sandy's size advantage over Gloria, I would say that the two surge levels are fairly comparable. But I want to do the comparison with other storms like Donna. I haven't taken into account the Jersey Shore and other specific readings yet, but based on the comparisons that I have experienced and have been able to draw to other storms, the only truly anomalous aspect of Sandy was her size.

...I'm open to discussion.
One more note then I will go back to just reading (ha!) Watch those generators fires etc. People down here die after the storm from CO.
00z Best Track for Rosa.

EP, 17, 2012103100, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1168W, 40, 1003, TS
Quoting sar2401:

Yes, that transition from tropical cyclone to non-tropical was very confusing to a lot of users. I thought the NHC was going to post updates on the storm until winds dropped below tropical storm strength, but it seems like there are some clear lines of responsibility that the local NWS offices felt belong to them, and the NHC shouldn't keep posting updates. Maybe this will prompt the NWS to think about the idea of a single site resource to track serious storms over land rather than have to hunt through each individual NWS site for details. Once it devolves to individual NWS offices, you are trapped with some offices that do really good updates and others that are marginal at best. Don't know what the answer is but I clearly see it as a problem.
That was a big mistake. Brian Norcross had some choice comments about that as it was happening. I think many, many people (including Bloomberg) underestimated this thing because they were not under a hurricane warning, as they should have been. That decision/process needs to be revisited, especially since these hybrid storms will become more likely in the future.
the last thing the east coast needs is more rain..low that exits off into the atlantic

12z CMC


12z Euro


18z Nogaps
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for Rosa.

EP, 17, 2012103100, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1168W, 40, 1003, TS


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



I just came across the following quote on the france24.com site:

quote:

By Tuesday afternoon, the number of US homes and businesses without power had risen to 8.1 million, according to the Department of Energy - a figure fast approaching the 8.4 million outage peak during last year%u2019s Hurricane Irene.

http://energy.gov/articles/responding-post-tropic al-cyclone-sandy-doe-situation-reports


http://www.france24.com/en/20121030-sandy-another -storm-blackout-usa-aging-power-grid-new-york-elec tricity-energy

----------

Going to DOE website I find quote:

As of 2:00 pm EDT October 30, the impacted States report a total of 8,204,914 customers without power in the affected areas. There is some increase in outages as the storm moves west-northwest. See State totals below.



Adding together the peak outages for each state (and D.C.) from the link your provided shows that 8,459,620 customers had been without power at some point as of 3:00PM this afternoon. I can only image the numbers have climbed since then.
Quoting carlakid50:
One more note then I will go back to just reading (ha!) Watch those generators fires etc. People down here die after the storm from CO.

Carbon monoxide is very dangerous indeed.
599. wjdow
Quoting Pirate999:


Very true. Good point and they do reflect. But co2 doesn't reflect and there was arguably more raw co2 ejected with the pollution then than there is now. Just curious. I see trends over millenniums, not the short life time of humans on earth and defiantly not 20 or 100 years. We think we can explain this, on both sides, but we can't explain it any more than we can explain the rest of the weather. If we think we can than we are truly a delusional breed.
What is raw CO2? And what is your evidence that there was more of it emitted during the Industrial Revolution?
600. mobal
Why the heck are people here comparing their so called hurricane problems from the past....."I was out of electricity for XX days" etc.. Who cares. This is a new storm, lets help them and stop thinking about your own small world.
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
In Other Non-Weather Related News:
Disney Buys Lucasfilm; Eyes Release Of 'Star Wars: Episode 7' For 2015

Link


Read about that today, can't wait to see Star Wars Episode 7, being written by the guy I hear who did the Avengers.

Back to topic.
Good night All- Observation:

I have been looking intently at the wind/ intensity analysis for Sandy just Prior to Landfall at Santiago de Cuba and noted that there was an Intermediate advisory (about 1:30a.m.EDT)which indicated that the storm had attained maximum sustained winds of 115mph which would have designated Sandy as a low end Category three Storm at Landfall. This advisory was issued shortly after the first critical intensity update which put top winds intially at 110mph. Therefore It is puzzling as to why -it seems to have been disregarded and consensus seems to be holding on to Sandy's top sustained winds at 0nly 110mph rather than 115mph before imminent landfall in Cuba...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All recon flights into the Superstorm otherwise known as Sandy.



One flight was granted permission to fly over Cuba...
Quoting Pirate999:


You're right. They do show a good short term trend. Curious though that during the hight of the industrial revolution around the turn of the century, when there was massive air pollution, even greater than today, the temps were lower... As they say.. Just sayin.


In 1900, 112 years of carbon dioxide had not been released yet, almost all of which is still there.

Do you really believe that 2 billion persons with low technology could mine as much coal as 7 billion people now with heavy machinery? (and it was mostly coal, now we just drill deep enough and the oil is pumped automatically) The industrialized world population has also grown.

And notice how the temperature seems to rise several decades after the CO2.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Watching some pretty nasty storm roll through a little ways east of me:



We saw the lightning but it was never close enough to hear the thunder. Glad those 60 mph winds will bo north of us. We still do not have power.
That advisory was soon corrected to 110 mph. Note that there are two updates shown as issued at 130 AM.

Quoting NatureIsle:
Good night All- Observation:

I have been looking intently at the wind/ intensity analysis for Sandy just Prior to Landfall at Santiago de Cuba and noted that there was an Intermediate advisory (about 1:30a.m.EDT)which indicated that the storm had attained maximum sustained winds of 115mph which would have designated Sandy as a low end Category three Storm at Landfall. This advisory was issued shortly after the first critical intensity update which put top winds intially at 110mph. Therefore It is puzzling as to why -it seems to have been disregarded and consensus seems to be holding on to Sandy's top sustained winds at 0nly 110mph rather than 115mph before imminent landfall in Cuba...
Quoting sar2401:

Yes, that transition from tropical cyclone to non-tropical was very confusing to a lot of users. I thought the NHC was going to post updates on the storm until winds dropped below tropical storm strength, but it seems like there are some clear lines of responsibility that the local NWS offices felt belong to them, and the NHC shouldn't keep posting updates. Maybe this will prompt the NWS to think about the idea of a single site resource to track serious storms over land rather than have to hunt through each individual NWS site for details. Once it devolves to individual NWS offices, you are trapped with some offices that do really good updates and others that are marginal at best. Don't know what the answer is but I clearly see it as a problem.


I have no doubt that TWC has some lobbyists in Washington working this angle in their favor right now.
Quoting NEwatcher:


We saw the lightning but it was never close enough to hear the thunder. Glad those 60 mph winds will bo north of us. We still do not have power.



the line of storms that moved through Boston just now were pretty awesome. several strong lightning strikes. very heavy down pour. it moved really fast but I still have power. :)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Watching some pretty nasty storm roll through a little ways east of me:

Looks like New England is getting some weather tonight! Weather Channel just showed some very strong storms in MA/NH. And Chicago is getting strong windstorms. Sandy is still massive and not done yet. Never seen anything like this.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All recon flights into the Superstorm otherwise known as Sandy.



Excellent graphic.
NWS never did issue hurricane warnings for Sandy north of North Carolina did they?
Quoting NatureIsle:
Good night All- Observation:

I have been looking intently at the wind/ intensity analysis for Sandy just Prior to Landfall at Santiago de Cuba and noted that there was an Intermediate advisory (about 1:30a.m.EDT)which indicated that the storm had attained maximum sustained winds of 115mph which would have designated Sandy as a low end Category three Storm at Landfall. This advisory was issued shortly after the first critical intensity update which put top winds intially at 110mph. Therefore It is puzzling as to why -it seems to have been disregarded and consensus seems to be holding on to Sandy's top sustained winds at 0nly 110mph rather than 115mph before imminent landfall in Cuba...


I was watching that night and there were many commnets on this blog, most of them in favor of CAT 3 status. Many were angry when it did not happen. At this point it is history. As I stated that night does it really matter if they said strong CAT 2, which they did, or weak CAT 3, which they did not. It was only a small area that had CAT 3 indications which does not in itself change the catagory of the storm.

We should let this one go and let this be part of the post season process. It still could be changed later. For the damage that was just done this issue just does not make any difference.
Hey, I've been analyzed this blog 24/7 and decided to join now (well yesterday..). I've been hearing that the storm might return to NYC, wondering if you guys think it might?
Also how badly is New Hampshire gonna be affected as of now? I got some friends up there...and they are getting hit really hard and I was hoping of some good news. Thanks.
Quoting ingram01:
NWS never did issue hurricane warnings for Sandy north of North Carolina did they?


There is a fair amount of financial significance to that decision for all the homeowners.
Quoting ingram01:
NWS never did issue hurricane warnings for Sandy north of North Carolina did they?


They did not. The forecast was for the storm to become post-tropical or extra-tropical before landfall.
Quoting Pirate999:


there was arguably more raw co2 ejected with the pollution then than there is now.


No there wasn't. Pollution control devices can reduce soot, NOx, SOx, etc, but they don't stop CO2 production - more fossil fuel consumption = more CO2 production.



More CO2 production = higher CO2 levels



It's to early but the forecast of Enso for 2013 aren't very encouraging
618. BDAwx
Quoting sar2401:

Yes, that transition from tropical cyclone to non-tropical was very confusing to a lot of users. I thought the NHC was going to post updates on the storm until winds dropped below tropical storm strength, but it seems like there are some clear lines of responsibility that the local NWS offices felt belong to them, and the NHC shouldn't keep posting updates. Maybe this will prompt the NWS to think about the idea of a single site resource to track serious storms over land rather than have to hunt through each individual NWS site for details. Once it devolves to individual NWS offices, you are trapped with some offices that do really good updates and others that are marginal at best. Don't know what the answer is but I clearly see it as a problem.


Yes there are some clear lines of responsibility, but it has more to do with the meteorology than NWS office politics. When the storm became post-tropical/extra-tropical, the responsibility for issuing updates no longer fell to the National Hurricane Center. Regardless, they did provide links to the Hydrological Prediction Center's updates once the storm became extra-tropical. Additionally, I don't understand how its possible to have to "hunt through the NWS site for details", click on your region and read the local warnings.

But I agree, it could be useful to have some sort of unit that issues advisories/updates on extra-tropical storms. I doubt they have the budget for it and because this type of storm doesn't have meaningful quantifiable characteristics that you can put into the form of an advisory, other than central pressure, it makes more sense to have the local units of the national weather service handle it.
NBC News

Watch live at 10 p.m. ET: Sandy's Fury
- a special report on the storm's toll and recovery efforts.

http://nbcnews.to/Yl7dc6
On Rachel Maddow, the mayor of Hoboken said that there were currently still 20,000 people in Hoboken that they couldn't reach and that needed to be rescued because of the flooding.
Here's a youtube video of flooded Hoboken.
Link
OK Sandy was and is very bad.

There was talk of a second storm forming in the carb. Are the models still showing that?
Quoting Autistic2:
OK Sandy was and is very bad.

There was talk of a second storm forming in the carb. Are the models still showing that?


GFS dropped it.
Quoting Manhattancane:


In 1900, 112 years of carbon dioxide had not been released yet, almost all of which is still there.

Do you really believe that 2 billion persons with low technology could mine as much coal as 7 billion people now with heavy machinery? (and it was mostly coal, now we just drill deep enough and the oil is pumped automatically) The industrialized world population has also grown.

And notice how the temperature seems to rise several decades after the CO2.


Then do explain scientist in the 1970's that were screaming about the earth entering another ice age? Do explain other reports that temp gain has been relatively flat? And don't quote the frauds in England that were caught manipulating numbers as evidenced through their emails.

Many of us will never agree the cause. It has been shown that temp rose first before co2 rose in the past. If you or I, or these "scientists" say we can explain this then we are all naive idiots.

We will be at other spectrums and that's what makes the world go round.
Quoting greenengineer:


No there wasn't. Pollution control devices can reduce soot, NOx, SOx, etc, but they don't stop CO2 production - more fossil fuel consumption = more CO2 production.



More CO2 production = higher CO2 levels





Now much c02 is then released due to ice melting?
Quoting airmet3:


They did not. The forecast was for the storm to become post-tropical or extra-tropical before landfall.


None of the coastal states affected allow hurricane deductibles on property insurance claims unless the NWS issues warnings for their area.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I report...You decide...



Interesting. I didn't hear him mention FEMA or disaster relief. In fact he said give the money to the states and then he mentioned the overall debt. Your point is?

Quoting Pirate999:


Interesting. I didn't hear him mention FEMA or disaster relief. In fact he said give the money to the states and then he mentioned the overall debt. Your point is?



You decide.
Quoting Pirate999:


Then do explain scientist in the 1970's that were screaming about the earth entering another ice age? Do explain other reports that temp gain has been relatively flat? And don't quote the frauds in England that were caught manipulating numbers as evidenced through their emails.

Many of us will never agree the cause. It has been shown that temp rose first before co2 rose in the past. If you or I, or these "scientists" say we can explain this then we are all naive idiots.

We will be at other spectrums and that's what makes the world go round.
Sigh. For the thousandth time:

1) The majority of climate scientists and science papers--in the 1970s talked of warming, not cooling.

2) Temps haven't been flat; warming continues apace once natural variability is accounted for.

3) After nearly a dozen thorough subjective investigations, not a trace of fraud or manipulation was ever found.

You are certainly free to "not agree the cause". But 97% of climate scientists know what's going on, and they know why.

I do wish people would take the time to learn before spouting nonsense such as the above comment; it would make the world a more productive place.
Quoting Pirate999:


Interesting. I didn't hear him mention FEMA or disaster relief. In fact he said give the money to the states and then he mentioned the overall debt. Your point is?



The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.

Sound familer? If you are American it should.
Quoting avthunder:
Looks like New England is getting some weather tonight! Weather Channel just showed some very strong storms in MA/NH. And Chicago is getting strong windstorms. Sandy is still massive and not done yet. Never seen anything like this.


I just got back from seeing "Cloud Atlas" (very good movie, IMO) and we are getting the most powerful t-storms I've seen here in Yarmouth, NS in at least 12 years. A power surge knocked out the projector about 20 minutes in. After it was fixed we watched the rest of the movie, then came out into a wicked downpour and continuous lightning right overhead. Not a fun drive home. And there's more on the way. Sandy is finally landing a punch on us. Power is holding up well, for now.
--The toll in the Breezy Point blaze is 111 homes.

--The U.S. death toll from sandy has reached 50, including 18 in NYC alone.
Quoting Pirate999:


Then do explain scientist in the 1970's that were screaming about the earth entering another ice age?


How about the explanation that that never happened?

Here's a peer-reviewed reference to that regard (not that you care about the scientific process!)

Link

Do explain other reports that temp gain has been relatively flat?


They're not.

And don't quote the frauds in England that were caught manipulating numbers as evidenced through their emails.


They were resoundingly cleared of wrongdoing by many subsequent investigations from a wide range of different bodies

It has been shown that temp rose first before co2 rose in the past.


On geological scales, CO2 is feedback. On human scales, it's forcing. That is to say, it's average atmospheric residency time is hundreds of years. On scales of hundreds of thousands of years, it will equalize to whatever is natural given the other factors driving the climate; it is merely a (major) amplifying response**. But we're directly injecting it now. The changes are not a "response" to other factors, it's being directly put there by us. Quite obviously; we can even see the isotopic ratio changing, as we're burning "old" (radioisotope-depleted) carbon. And while whatever we inject will be gone after several hundreds to a few thousand of years, which is the blink of an eye from a planetary perspective, it's many dozens of generations from a human perspective.

** The primary driver of the ice ages is the "Milankovitch" orbital cycles. However, the forcing from the orbit alone is a small fraction of what is actually experienced during the ice ages. The rest is amplification from feedback factors, mainly CO2 and water vapor. Water vapor is an even faster feedback, with an average atmospheric residency of only a few weeks. Even on a human scale, water vapor is a feedback.
Quoting Pirate999:


Then do explain scientist in the 1970's that were screaming about the earth entering another ice age? Do explain other reports that temp gain has been relatively flat? And don't quote the frauds in England that were caught manipulating numbers as evidenced through their emails.

Many of us will never agree the cause. It has been shown that temp rose first before co2 rose in the past. If you or I, or these "scientists" say we can explain this then we are all naive idiots.

We will be at other spectrums and that's what makes the world go round.


Pirate, nature doesn't give a hoot if you agree or not. That should be rather obvious today. We'll never be able to say whether or not GW directly caused Sandy but we can sure say GW made the conditions for Sandy to occur more likely.

BTW, all the things you mention in your first paragraph have been debunked dozens of times. Go to RealClimate or SkepticalScience to read what the climatologists have to say. Or listen to Rush. As I said before, Nature doesn't care. At this point, neither do I.
Quoting Neapolitan:
--The toll in the Breezy Point blaze is 111 homes.

--The U.S. death toll from sandy has reached 50.


I think that number of dead will increase more as the clean up swings into high gear. Very unfortinate. I think alot of those people died from falling trees. I saw the video earler of the trees falling down, thinking, put the camera down and get to the middleof you house!
Anyone who tries to claim--even discounting Sandy--that the more than 3.4 million metric tons of long-lasting, heat-trapping, fossil fuel-based CO2 we humans pump into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day has no effect on the weather or the climate is in absolute denial of reality. Period. The climate is changing far faster than scientists predicted even a few short years ago, and there's no sign of that trend reversing.


Yet in temps have not risen in the last 16 years ? hmmmmmmmmmmm


See I can pick and choose what I believe also. And no I do not really give that report about steady temps credit. Just my sarcasm is all
Quoting ingram01:
NWS never did issue hurricane warnings for Sandy north of North Carolina did they?
I thought hurricane force winds were issued in warnings.
Quoting KarenRei:


How about the explanation that that never happened?

Here's a peer-reviewed reference to that regard (not that you care about the scientific process!)

Link

Do explain other reports that temp gain has been relatively flat?


They're not.

And don't quote the frauds in England that were caught manipulating numbers as evidenced through their emails.


They were resoundingly cleared of wrongdoing by many subsequent investigations from a wide range of different bodies

It has been shown that temp rose first before co2 rose in the past.


On geological scales, CO2 is feedback. On human scales, it's forcing. That is to say, it's average atmospheric residency time is hundreds of years. On scales of hundreds of thousands of years, it will equalize to whatever is natural given the other factors driving the climate; it is merely a (major) amplifying response**. But we're directly injecting it now. The changes are not a "response" to other factors, it's being directly put there by us. Quite obviously; we can even see the isotopic ratio changing, as we're burning "old" (radioisotope-depleted) carbon. And while whatever we inject will be gone after several hundreds to a few thousand of years, which is the blink of an eye from a planetary perspective, it's many dozens of generations from a human perspective.

** The primary driver of the ice ages is the "Milankovitch" orbital cycles. However, the forcing from the orbit alone is a small fraction of what is actually experienced during the ice ages. The rest is amplification from feedback factors, mainly CO2 and water vapor. Water vapor is an even faster feedback, with an average atmospheric residency of only a few weeks. Even on a human scale, water vapor is a feedback.


Then you have it all figured out, don't you....excellent science that is irrefutable. You know exactly how the climate works as well as the earth and it rotation relevance and orbits and let me include the sun. I'm impressed. Do tell me the next tropical storm, it's development, intesity and direction. My saying that is despite your explination, that was indeed nice, you dont have a clue and are theorizing like the others. Unfortunatly, those theories may cost trillions for the the US while china, India, et al continue on. And 30 years from now, the theory will be about thee next ice age and global cooling.

But again, nice explanation.
Sandy was a "one and only" storm - it was the first (Atlantic) storm to be given that name and will undoubtedly be the last. I went thru the records (Warning: I used the NHC compilations rather than go back to the original data; I have found that databases (regardless of subject) are almost always loaded with errors) and found 35 one and only storms. On the other hand, Frances was retired after being used 8 times. Here's the full list of how many times each retired name was used:
Audrey 1, Agnes 1, Anita 1, Allen 1, Alicia 1, Andrew 2, Allison 3
Betsy 3, Beulah 3, Bob 3
Connie 1, Carla 2, Cleo 3, Carol 3, Camille 1, Celia 3, Carmen 1, Cesar 3, Charley (not to be confused with Charlie) 5
Diane 1, Donna 1, Dora 2, David 1, Diana 2, Dennis 5, Dean 5
Edna 3, Eloise 1, Elena 3
Flora 3, Fifi 2, Frederic 1, Fran 4, Floyd 4, Fabian 4, Frances 8, Felix 4
Gracie 1, Gloria 3, Gilbert 1, Georges 2, Gustav 5
Hazel 2, Hattie 1, Hilda 2, Hugo 1, Hortense 3
Ione 1, Inez 1, Iris 3, Isidore 4, Isabel 2, Ivan 3, Ike 1, Igor 1, Irene 5
Janet 1, Joan 1, Juan 2, Jeanne 3
Klaus 2, Keith 2, Katrina 3
Luis 1, Lenny 1, Lili 2
Marilyn 1, Mitch 1, Michelle 1
Noel 2
Opal 1
Paloma 1
Roxanne 1, Rita 1
Stan 1
Tomas 1
Wilma 1
Quoting Barkeep1967:
Anyone who tries to claim--even discounting Sandy--that the more than 3.4 million metric tons of long-lasting, heat-trapping, fossil fuel-based CO2 we humans pump into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day has no effect on the weather or the climate is in absolute denial of reality. Period. The climate is changing far faster than scientists predicted even a few short years ago, and there's no sign of that trend reversing.


Yet in temps have not risen in the last 16 years ? hmmmmmmmmmmm


See I can pick and choose what I believe also. And no I do not really give that report about steady temps credit. Just my sarcasm is all
Fair enough. At least you have the honesty to admit that your opinions are unchangeable and shaped not by scientific fact but by preconception and ideology. That's more than many will admit to.

Take care...
Quoting centex:
I thought hurricane force winds were issued in warnings.


Hurricane warnings were never officially announced above North Carolina I believe. NWS hurricane warnings are the trigger for for the larger property insurance deductibles in that region.
Quoting ingram01:


Hurricane warnings were never officially announced above North Carolina I believe. NWS hurricane warnings are the trigger for for the larger property insurance deductibles in that region.
Maybe we should take this to the supreme court and get a ruling in 10 years. That will help them.
Quoting ingram01:


Hurricane warnings were never officially announced above North Carolina I believe. NWS hurricane warnings are the trigger for for the larger property insurance deductibles in that region.



If they were really using that rationale wouldn't the insurers just sue them?

I read the news and then I stop and think.

Yes our climate is changing. Of this I am sure.

But why is it changing?

Science tells me we had three previous ice ages; did it not warm between them? We were not here then but were volcanoes or other co2 emissions? I do not know, not sure anyone does.

Everything I see says yes. The climate is changing but I am not sure it is us doing it.

I think the amount of heat released in nuclear tests (American, Russian, Chinese, South African, British, North Korean, etc) dwarf anything our cars can do. How much did we burn and explode in WW2 Korea, Vietnam, those are only American conflicts, there have been many others.

I think the climate change is really a BIG PICTURE that goes well beyond c02.

My 2 cents
I seem to recall in the notices the said the NWS would be handling the wind warnings.

Without a hurricane designation wouldn't that leave no one handling the storm surge communications?

This is complex and I hope it gets some scrutiny in the post season. If a communication is widely ineffective then it's technical correctness is just part of the story.

Some tough calls on an unusual storm.

All the reports of storms tonight remind me- we had thunder snow last night
during Sandy. I promise, I didn't react like Jim Cantore. It was only the second timeI have seen this, the other being back in the 70's as a child.
Quoting sfranz:



If they were really using that rationale wouldn't the insurers just sue them?



Sue who? The federal government? Good luck with that. Property insurers have in countless instances utilized their very well-crafted verbiage in this very same manner. remember the great debate over Katrina and flood damage vs. wind damage? Nope, the policies all pretty clearly state hurricane warnings as the key trigger for the higher deductibles. Don't get me wrong, there will be tons of lawsuits. Some of the insurers will do the right thing upfront and some won't.

http://www.iii.org/issues_updates/hurricane-and-w indstorm-deductibles.html
Quoting sfranz:



If they were really using that rationale wouldn't the insurers just sue them?


Tropical cyclone warnings trigger the higher deductibles (tropical storm or better). These were covered under a high wind advisory, which may or may not trigger the higher deductible. IMO, it was the right call by the NHC, as Sandy was post-tropical upon landfall.

When the insurance industry starts controlling when watches and warnings are posted... we are going to have incredible issues.
Quoting Autistic2:
I read the news and then I stop and think.

Yes our climate is changing. Of this I am sure.

But why is it changing?

Science tells me we had three previous ice ages; did it not warm between them? We were not here then but were volcanoes or other co2 emissions? I do not know, not sure anyone does.

Everything I see says yes. The climate is changing but I am not sure it is us doing it.

I think the amount of heat released in nuclear tests (American, Russian, Chinese, South African, British, North Korean, etc) dwarf anything our cars can do. How much did we burn and explode in WW2 Korea, Vietnam, those are only American conflicts, there have been many others.

I think the climate change is really a BIG PICTURE that goes well beyond c02.

My 2 cents
Interesting you would mention nuclear blasts. Did you know the oceans are currently heating up at the rate of more than two Hiroshima "Little Boy" atomic bomb detonations per second, every second? And that they've been doing so for more than the last 50 years? (Source)

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ROSA HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE
SEEN IN A CDO-LIKE FEATURE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE
THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE BANDING ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ESTIMATES
REMAIN 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE VALUES. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF ROSA APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW
IN THAT SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE SHOW WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY LIMITED STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM. AFTER 24 HOURS...A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO
WEAKENING AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

A 2231 UTC AMSU PASS SHOWED THAT ROSA IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
275/04. ROSA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT. THE ECMWF...UKMET...
AND NOGAPS SHOW A WEAKENING ROSA TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY DAY
4. ALTERNATIVELY...THE GFS AND GFDL SHOW A DEEPER REPRESENTATION OF
ROSA TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
GIVEN THAT ROSA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING...THE GFS/GFDL SEENARIO SEEMS A LITTLE
LESS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION NOW HAS THE SUPPORT OF A FEW
OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN THAT THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...BUT STILL SHOWS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO
PROVIDE SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 14.5N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 14.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.7N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.8N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 14.9N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 14.2N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0000Z 14.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting jeffs713:

Tropical cyclone warnings trigger the higher deductibles (tropical storm or better). These were covered under a high wind advisory, which may or may not trigger the higher deductible. IMO, it was the right call by the NHC, as Sandy was post-tropical upon landfall.

When the insurance industry starts controlling when watches and warnings are posted... we are going to have incredible issues.


Jeffs read the language in the link in my previous post. It states "hurricane warnings" pretty consistently state-by-state, not tropical cyclone warnings.
It was a large Cat 1 hurricane at landfall. The insurance guys just need to pay as policy says. What is the issue?
Hey everybody I was read the blogs yesterday and decided to join, wow sandy was an awesome storm and i hope we as a nation can bounce back quickly and my condolences to the families who lost love ones... the only good thing for me is no school
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All recon flights into the Superstorm otherwise known as Sandy.



how many millions of dollars spent to save lives...
Quoting SandyCheeks13:
Hey, I've been analyzed this blog 24/7 and decided to join now (well yesterday..). I've been hearing that the storm might return to NYC, wondering if you guys think it might?
Also how badly is New Hampshire gonna be affected as of now? I got some friends up there...and they are getting hit really hard and I was hoping of some good news. Thanks.




me too
Quoting jeffs713:

Tropical cyclone warnings trigger the higher deductibles (tropical storm or better). These were covered under a high wind advisory, which may or may not trigger the higher deductible. IMO, it was the right call by the NHC, as Sandy was post-tropical upon landfall.

When the insurance industry starts controlling when watches and warnings are posted... we are going to have incredible issues.


I grant that integrity and honesty have to be maintained in forecasting. I am just wondering how hurricane like threats such as storm surge can be more effectively communicated. There are some people who will never listen but a lot of decision makers seemed confused on this round.

I do think a lot of people were looking for hurricane warnings to go up and may not have read to the end of a high wind warning when that wasn't what they were trained to expect.





WINTER WEATHER UPDATE

Hi guys...here is my brand new graphic for this winter season...starting with Superstorm Sandy



click on the pic for a 4x bigger size risk free
hope you like it...it took me 2-3 hours to put in the information
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how many millions of dollars spent to save lives...
fraction of what it would have been. I have a mission to stop this sort of post.
Hey everyone. First of all, I'm a long time reader, first time poster. I've been reading Dr. Masters' blog for years now and I've always thought the comments section was both helpful and intelligent when it comes to weather systems. I've learned so much from reading over the years.

Now, I go to college here in New York City. Last night was one of the most surreal experiences of my life. I've lived in Connecticut my entire life and I'm crushed by some of the images along the CT shoreline. The same goes for the unreal images of the destruction in New Jersey and New York City.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how many millions of dollars spent to save lives...

every dollar well spent
Quoting Neapolitan:
Interesting you would mention nuclear blasts. Did you know the oceans are currently heating up at the rate of more than two Hiroshima "Little Boy" atomic bomb detonations per second, every second? And that they've been doing so for more than the last 50 years? (Source)


Are you saying climate change = imbalance in the heat flows to and from Space?
Quoting sfranz:


I do think a lot of people were looking for hurricane warnings to go up and may not have read to the end of a high wind warning when that wasn't what they were trained to expect.







I did notice one spot of confusion even on Wunderground. The maps showed a purple local hurricane statement from NYC north but if I came into a local page directly the local hurricane statement was not there at all.

Quoting geepy86:
idiot
Yes and group thought that needs to change.
Quoting geepy86:

every dollar well spent


that's the best way to invest..for humanity and safety

Quoting centex:
fraction of what it would have been. I have a mission to stop this sort of post.


you misunderstood me...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE

Hi guys...here is my brand new graphic for this winter season...starting with Superstorm Sandy



click on the pic for a 4x bigger size risk free
hope you like it...it took me 2-3 hours to put in the information


Looking good trHUrrIXC5MMX..I like the format and color scheme.. :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that's the best way to invest..for humanity and safety



you misunderstood me...
Don't say that and we will not ping you.
Quoting pcola57:


Looking good trHUrrIXC5MMX..I like the format and color scheme.. :)


cool.
Quoting czechoslovakia:
Hey everybody I was read the blogs yesterday and decided to join, wow sandy was an awesome storm and i hope we as a nation can bounce back quickly and my condolences to the families who lost love ones... the only good thing for me is no school


Welcome to the blog, and nice first post.
Quoting czechoslovakia:
Hey everybody I was read the blogs yesterday and decided to join, wow sandy was an awesome storm and i hope we as a nation can bounce back quickly and my condolences to the families who lost love ones... the only good thing for me is no school


Retro name!
Quoting centex:
Don't say that and we will not ping you.


what did you think I said?? ...you thought I meant that it was a waste of money having the HH do all that work?
1938 - Long Island Express

... author William Manchester wrote in The Glory and the Dream: A Narrative History of America, 1932-1972.

Manchester said a man living on Long Island received a barometer in the mail that he’d ordered a few days earlier. When he opened the package, the instrument’s needle pointed to a reading of “Hurricanes and Tornadoes.” Thinking that the barometer was broken, the annoyed man left his home to go to the post office to mail it back.

“While he was gone, his house blew away,” Manchester wrote. “It happened that quickly.”

The hurricane, which came to be called the Long Island Express because of its uncanny speed, inflicted more devastation on New England. More than 700 people were killed, and the storm blew down enough trees to build 200,000 homes, Manchester wrote.
Quoting Autistic2:


Are you saying climate change = imbalance in the heat flows to and from Space?

I think of climate change as a change in the way heat is distributed in the ocean-atmosphere system. That system will change so as to maintain an approximate equilibrium for the energy coming in and going out. Dr. Masters has made posts about this topic in the past. Because an equilibrium is maintained, one of the effects of increased CO2 is cooling in the stratosphere. Dr. M's post was a few years ago so I don't have a link at hand.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL182012
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER
PENNSYLVANIA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.3N 79.4W
ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...ENE OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...64 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 08 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ALONG MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS.

FLOOD AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN MARYLAND...AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN
TENNESSEE...EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 08 MPH...13 KM/H.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OR LAKE
ERIE...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CANADA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...64 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
WIND...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN
SUBSIDING...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE COULD
STILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS APPROACHING HIGH TIDE. THE
WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE.

THE FRESHWATER FLOOD WATERS ORIGINATING IN THE UPPER POTOMAC FROM
THE RAINS OF SANDY WILL START TO IMPACT THE TIDAL
POTOMAC...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD STARTING THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHEREELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TO MASSACHUSETTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS POSSIBLE.

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST EXPOSED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ACROSS
DELAWARE...MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SNOWFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO FAR WESTERN
MARYLAND...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING
STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 2 TO 3 FEET OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND 1 TO 2 FEET OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY
AND THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 10 PM EDT

...WASHINGTON DC...
WASHINGTON 5.1 NW 5.83
WASHINGTON/NATIONAL 4.78

...DELAWARE...
GEORGETOWN 10.20
DOVER 6.4 WNW 9.62
MILFORD 9.55
INDIAN RIVER ACRES 9.49
REHOBOTH BEACH 9.37
CLAYTON 6.6 W 8.62
DOVER AFB 8.47
DELANEY CORNER 8.33
MILTON 8.30
SMYRNA 2.7 SSE 8.30
SEAFORD 2.3 SSE 8.27
FELTON 3.6 NE 8.00
DOVER 7.98
VIOLA 7.84
GEORGETOWN 5.8 W 7.76
NEWARK 3.9 SSW 7.68
WILMINGTON ARPT 4.34

...MASSACHUSETTS...
NORTH ASHBURNHAM 3.70
FITCHBURG 3.69
PEPPERELL 3.30
ASHBURNHAM 3.20
AYER 3.11
EAST MILTON 3.03
LEOMINSTER 1.5 S 2.92
NATICK 1.7 NNE 2.85
NORTON 1.8 NNE 2.80
ACTON 1.3 SW 2.76
MILLIS 0.6 SSE 2.65
NORTHBOROUGH 0.6 SSE 2.60
NORWOOD 1.3 NW 2.59
FITCHBURG 1.6 SSW 2.58
ANDOVER 1.5 W 2.48
BEDFORD/HANSCOM FIELD 2.40

NANTUCKET MEMORIAL ARPT 2.01


...MARYLAND...
EASTON 0.7 NNW 12.55
1 NNW EASTON 12.49
GREENSBORO 1.4 ENE 10.53
1 E GREENSBORO 9.93
QUEENSTOWN 2.6 S 9.89
TRAPPE 3.5 NE 9.78
BISHOPVILLE 3.1 E 9.48
DENTON 5.8 WSW 9.18
PRINCESS ANNE 4.4 WSW 8.81
PASADENA 2.6 ESE 8.60
PATUXENT RIVER NAS 8.32
LA PLATA 5.8 SE 8.23
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT 7.53
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 7.20
BALIMORE SCIENCE CENTER 7.15
ANNAPOLIS - US NAVAL ACADEMY 7.09
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL ARPT 6.65

...NORTH CAROLINA...
SALVO 0.9 NNE 8.09
AVON 0.7 NE 8.00
COROLLA 3.2 SSE 7.66
DUCK 0.3 SE 7.22
KILL DEVIL HILLS 2.5 NNW 6.47
HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP 6.26
COROLLA 11.7 NNW 5.90
KITTY HAWK 4.0 NNW 5.89
TRENT WOODS 1.3 SSE 4.11
JAMESVILLE 6.1 SW 3.84
JACKSONVILLE 2.0 E 3.75
HOLLY RIDGE 4.8 ENE 3.63
ELIZABETH CITY 10.5 NNW 3.56
MERRY HILL 3.8 E 3.51

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
GORHAM 3.1 S 4.85
JAFFREY MUNI ARPT 4.63
CENTER SANDWICH 4.9 E 4.57
RANDOLPH 1.4 NE 4.51
MT WASHINGTON 4.05
NEWBURY 1.6 NW 4.00
EFFINGHAM 0.9 NNW 3.35
NEWBURY 4.0 SE 3.07
HILLSBOROUGH 2.1 NNW 3.00
BROOKLINE 2.1 SW 3.00
MADISON 1.7 SE 2.99
GREENVILLE 1.1 ENE 2.96
BROOKFIELD 0.9 WSW 2.91
PETERBOROUGH 2.98
KEENE 2.85

...NEW JERSEY...
WILDWOOD CREST 0.6 NNE 11.91
NORTH WILDWOOD 10.24
WEST CAPE MAY 9.37
LOWER TWP 2.2 NE 8.41
ERMA 8.20
ATLANTIC CITY 8.15
CAPE MAY 8.10
WOODBINE 0.8 NNW 7.84
UPPER TWP 3.2 SE 7.75
HAMILTON TWP 2.1 SE 7.56
WOODBINE 5.1 NE 7.52
NEWPORT 7.30
CAPE MAY 0.4 NNW 7.28
VINELAND 2.6 WSW 7.07
ESTELL MANOR 7.06
CEDARVILLE 7.00
EGG HARBOR TWP 1.3 NW 6.83
LINWOOD 0.7 SSW 6.82
UPPER DEERFIELD TWP 1.9 E 6.22

...NEW YORK...
WHITESVILLE 4.83
1 S HAMBURG 4.59
PERRYSBURG 4.41
1 SW DUNKIRK 4.09
BATAVIA GENESSEE 3.80
3 ENE LOCKPORT 3.63
SHERMAN 0.4 ENE 3.42
NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT 3.27
LOCKPORT 2.8 ENE 3.31
LANCASTER 4.1 ENE 3.26
ALCOTT CENTER 3.25
ELMA CENTER 0.7 SE 3.06
DANSVILLE 1.0 ENE 3.06
LOCKPORT 0.8 NE 3.05
WEST ALMOND 3.6 SW 3.04



...OHIO...
KIRTLAND 0.9 SW 5.69
MAYFIELD 0.2 NW 5.10
NORTH RIDGEVILLE 2.8 SSW 5.06
PAINESVILLE 3.8 SSW 5.02
ASHTABULA CO. ARPT 4.70
ELYRIA 3.0 SE 4.77
LORAIN/ELYRIA 4.61
CLEVELAND-HOPKINS INTL ARPT 4.56
BROADVIEW HEIGHTS 1.5 NW 4.44
AVON 1.6 SW 4.14
BRUNSWICK 0.5 NE 4.08
PARMA 1.9 NNW 3.96
RICHMOND HEIGHTS 0.4 NNE 3.88
WAKEMAN 4.6 NNE 3.77
ELYRIA 0.4 SE 3.70


...PENNSYLVANIA...
HANOVER 5.4 S 7.61
SCHELLSBURG 2.6 WNW 7.32
GLEN ROCK 2.2 ESE 6.54
MALVERN 0.5 NNE 6.32
LANDENBERG 1.8 ENE 5.96
NEW SALEM 0.3 WSW 5.92
2 ENE LANDEBERG 5.90
LITTLESTOWN 3.7 WNW 5.84
WEST CHESTER 5.78
LATROBE 0.6 NW 5.76
EXTON 5.59
WEST CHESTER 1.8 SE 5.54
HANOVER 3.0 WSW 5.51
ABBOTTSTOWN 2.4 N 5.43

...RHODE ISLAND...
WOONSOCKET 1.3 ESE 1.87
MANVILLE 0.2 NE 1.76
PAWTUCKET/NORTH CENTRAL ST ARPT 1.57

...VIRGINIA...
REEDVILLE 9.90
VIRGINIA BEACH 9.58
OCEANA NAS/SOUCEK 9.57
CASHVILLE .01 S 9.38
WHITE STONE 8.0 SSW 8.96
GREENBACKVILLE 0.4 WNW 8.64
PORT HAYWOOD 1.0 SE 8.59
ONLEY 0.6 SE 8.47
WALLOPS ISLAND 8.48
ONANCOCK 3.9 SW 8.39
VIRGINIA BEACH 1.7 NE 7.99
PURCELLVILLE 7.89
5 S MAYSVILLE 7.75
YORKTOWN 0.8 SE 7.73
NEWPORT NEWS 5.8 NE 7.63

...WEST VIRGINIA...
SHENANDOAH JUNCTION 4.46
FALLING WATERS 2.4 NW 4.36
SLANESVILLE 2.1 SE 3.99
MCMECHEN 6.0 E 3.56
MORGANTOWN/HART FIELD 3.42
CHARLES TOWN 2.5 NE 3.15
BUNKER HILL 0.8 WNW 3.06
SPRINGFIELD 2.3 ESE 3.04
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE 2.83
MIDDLEBOURNE 0.3 ENE 2.80


SNOWFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 10 PM EDT

..KENTUCKY...
PAYNE GAP 14.0
LYNCH 3S 12.0
ELKO 1NW 9.0
BENHAM 3S 6.0

...MARYLAND...
REDHOUSE 29.0
FINZEL 24.0
OAKLAND 24.0
DEEP CREEK LAKE 20.0
4 SE CHAMPOIN 13.0
GRANTSVILLE 12.0
FROSTBURG 6.0

...NORTH CAROLINA...
COVE CREEK 10NW 24.0
FAUST 24.0
NEWFOUND GAP 22.0
ELK PARK 14.0
BULADEAN 12.0
BAKERSVILLE 5N 11.0
BEECH MOUNTAIN 1 SE 10.0
FLAT SPRINGS 9.8
ASHLAND 9.0
LANSING 8.0
FLAT SPRINGS 1E 7.0

...OHIO...
BELLEFONTAINE 4.5
BELLEFONTAINE 2N 3.0
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE 3.0
MANSFIELD 2.5

...PENNSYLVANIA...
CHAMPION 4SE 13.0
LAUREL SUMMIT 10.0
MOUNT DAVIS 9.0
FARMINGTON 8.8
LAUREL SUMMIT 9.6

...TENNESSEE...
GATLINBURG 7SE 22.0
ROAN MOUNTAIN
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that's the best way to invest..for humanity and safety



you misunderstood me...
Fine but very misleading post. how many millions of dollars spent to save lives...

Like they spent to much per million. Sorry if this was misunderstood. I'm kind of sensitive to over hype crap for historical systems.
Quoting centex:
Fine but very misleading post. how many millions of dollars spent to save lives...

Like they spent to much per million. Sorry if this was misunderstood. I'm kind of sensitive to over hype crap for historical systems.


I see...is this better wording for you...

. how many millions of dollars well spent to save lives...

sorry for not adding that word
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I see...is this better wording for you...

. how many millions of dollars well spent to save lives...

sorry for not adding that word

better
680. Ookla
Quoting KarenRei:


How about the explanation that that never happened?

Here's a peer-reviewed reference to that regard (not that you care about the scientific process!)

Link

Do explain other reports that temp gain has been relatively flat?


They're not.

And don't quote the frauds in England that were caught manipulating numbers as evidenced through their emails.


They were resoundingly cleared of wrongdoing by many subsequent investigations from a wide range of different bodies

It has been shown that temp rose first before co2 rose in the past.


On geological scales, CO2 is feedback. On human scales, it's forcing. That is to say, it's average atmospheric residency time is hundreds of years. On scales of hundreds of thousands of years, it will equalize to whatever is natural given the other factors driving the climate; it is merely a (major) amplifying response**. But we're directly injecting it now. The changes are not a "response" to other factors, it's being directly put there by us. Quite obviously; we can even see the isotopic ratio changing, as we're burning "old" (radioisotope-depleted) carbon. And while whatever we inject will be gone after several hundreds to a few thousand of years, which is the blink of an eye from a planetary perspective, it's many dozens of generations from a human perspective.

** The primary driver of the ice ages is the "Milankovitch" orbital cycles. However, the forcing from the orbit alone is a small fraction of what is actually experienced during the ice ages. The rest is amplification from feedback factors, mainly CO2 and water vapor. Water vapor is an even faster feedback, with an average atmospheric residency of only a few weeks. Even on a human scale, water vapor is a feedback.


Thank you. This is the kind of response that makes this so fascinating to me.
Evening everyone.
LinkLoopofSandyRemnants

Count me among the people still in shock over what just happened.



Huge and impenetrable no more.
Quoting Autistic2:


I think that number of dead will increase more as the clean up swings into high gear. Very unfortinate. I think alot of those people died from falling trees. I saw the video earler of the trees falling down, thinking, put the camera down and get to the middleof you house!


many have been swept away by water
the true number which won't ever be known
.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


many have been swept away by water
the true number which won't ever be known
This is USA missing not so vague.
Beautiful night here in Lake Worth. Temps in the 50's. Prayers to all affected by Sandy.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
5:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message


At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northwestward and now lays centered near 10.5N 81.5E or about 320 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 220 km north of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai around 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st,

According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of the cyclone is 3.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comrin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwestern adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 15.5N west of 83.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots gusting up to 55 knots. The estimated central pressure of Nalim is 994 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 17.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is of the order of 10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 5-10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 15.3N 78.3E - Low Pressure Area
687. BtnTx
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
1938 - Long Island Express

... author William Manchester wrote in The Glory and the Dream: A Narrative History of America, 1932-1972.

Manchester said a man living on Long Island received a barometer in the mail that he’d ordered a few days earlier. When he opened the package, the instrument’s needle pointed to a reading of “Hurricanes and Tornadoes.” Thinking that the barometer was broken, the annoyed man left his home to go to the post office to mail it back.

“While he was gone, his house blew away,” Manchester wrote. “It happened that quickly.”

The hurricane, which came to be called the Long Island Express because of its uncanny speed, inflicted more devastation on New England. More than 700 people were killed, and the storm blew down enough trees to build 200,000 homes, Manchester wrote.
that is very interesting, thx!
Quoting centex:
This is USA missing not so vague.


I defer to Hurricane Ike...

There was an image of a house earlier today with a big chunk missing yet the roof was still perfect on top.


People were saying it was fake. It seems that the house itself looks to be real and is located in Union Bay, NJ and the damage looks legit. Sometimes reality is way weird.

Sounds like Sandy will come in as number 4 maybe better behind Andrew, Katrina, and Wilma.
Tropical Storm Rosa:

696. wxmod
When they said 17000 flights had been canceled because of Sandy, I breathed a sigh of relief. These are ships producing these clouds, in the Pacific. MODIS

699. AlexN
Quoting Neapolitan:
Interesting you would mention nuclear blasts. Did you know the oceans are currently heating up at the rate of more than two Hiroshima "Little Boy" atomic bomb detonations per second, every second? And that they've been doing so for more than the last 50 years? (Source)

Of course there's also that conspicuous absence of any natural forcing commensurate with the trend (which remains nascent thanks to inertial lag and longer term amplifying feedbacks). Plus all the other lines of evidence for an enhanced greenhouse effect being primary:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/its-not-us-basic. htm
http://www.skepticalscience.com/How-do-we-know-CO 2-is-causing-warming.html
http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2010/03/25/paper s-on-formal-attribution/

And a bit of research would've revealed that the Milankovitch glacial-interglacial cycle should be causing slow cooling in the Arctic, not global warming.
With the formation of Tropical Storm Rosa, the 2012 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is the most active since 2006, when we made it all the way to 'Sergio'.
Have a question which I SHOULD know the answer to, but don't.

Weather just showed the Jet Stream making a perfect half-circle around Sandy's rear-end (That would be her bottom :) ). So did Sandy PULL the Jet Stream into that arc, or did Sandy slip into an arc which was already there, in effect pulling HER in?
Quoting MercForHire:
Have a question which I SHOULD know the answer to, but don't.

Weather just showed the Jet Stream making a perfect half-circle around Sandy's rear-end (That would be her bottom :) ). So did Sandy PULL the Jet Stream into that arc, or did Sandy slip into an arc which was already there, in effect pulling HER in?


Without looking at anything, the latter sounds more plausible. I doubt Sandy's circulation is deep enough at this point to be pulled by the upper flow.
703. BtnTx
Cantore will be on Letterman another no audience show soon
Quoting KoritheMan:
With the formation of Tropical Storm Rosa, the 2012 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is the most active since 2006, when we made it all the way to 'Sergio'.


Isn't this the first year that both the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific season has at least 17 tropical storms each?
Quoting centex:
This is USA missing not so vague.
what about all the homeless people in NYC (and other cities) where do they go? how do they know about evacuations? haven't heard any mention of this issue in the ongoing coverage. back to lurking.....
Quoting Civicane49:


Isn't this the first year that both the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific season has at least 17 tropical storms each?


To my knowledge, yeah.
Quoting dogsgomoo:
There was an image of a house earlier today with a big chunk missing yet the roof was still perfect on top.


People were saying it was fake. It seems that the house itself looks to be real and is located in Union Bay, NJ and the damage looks legit. Sometimes reality is way weird.



lol how cute
Good night, y'all.

Quoting MercForHire:
Have a question which I SHOULD know the answer to, but don't.

Weather just showed the Jet Stream making a perfect half-circle around Sandy's rear-end (That would be her bottom :) ). So did Sandy PULL the Jet Stream into that arc, or did Sandy slip into an arc which was already there, in effect pulling HER in?


I think this is an omega block creating a cut-off low and possibly some tropopause folding as the Bermuda-Azores high has been completely displaced and replaced by a high pressure system over the Canadian Arctic and Greenland.
Quoting MercForHire:
Have a question which I SHOULD know the answer to, but don't.

Weather just showed the Jet Stream making a perfect half-circle around Sandy's rear-end (That would be her bottom :) ). So did Sandy PULL the Jet Stream into that arc, or did Sandy slip into an arc which was already there, in effect pulling HER in?

Maybe a bit of both.
The NHC has released their first TCR of the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Florence.
Quoting Neapolitan:
For starters, put people on the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee who don't believe the earth is only a few thousand years old (Broun), who aren't completely clueless about biology and human reproduction (Akin), who aren't woefully ignorant about climate (Brooks), who aren't at least a little bit familiar with the internet (Hall), and who know at least a little bit about the carbon cycle (Rohrabacher). I realize that's a lot to ask of as anti-science a group of people as have ever darkened Washington, but, well, it would be a start.

+100
The most information I've seen about the NYC subways. Seems there's still a lot of uncertainty about the amount and extent of damage.
NHC has also released TCR on the East Pacific storms earlier this month: Bud, Daniel, and Emilia.
Superstorm Sandy:

Sandy still generating wind damage:

Nilam
Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, that's quite a collection of blather, even for D'Aleo. A real Gish Gallop featuring comments from the debunked and discredited--Pielke, Hoerling, Michaels--interspersed with cherry-picked, out-of-context statements from other scientists, sprinkled with ad hominems, and thoroughly topped with obfuscatory bits of info that have no bearing on reality. That's not the first such diatribe I've seen today; with multiple-recordbreaker Sandy occurring on top of the increasing number and severity of extreme weather events the entire globe is seeing, the denialists doubtless realize their side and POV have been diminished even further, so such manufactured and dishonest rants are understandable, if not forgivable.

Anyone who tries to claim--even discounting Sandy--that the more than 3.4 million metric tons of long-lasting, heat-trapping, fossil fuel-based CO2 we humans pump into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day has no effect on the weather or the climate is in absolute denial of reality. Period. The climate is changing far faster than scientists predicted even a few short years ago, and there's no sign of that trend reversing.

+1000
722. vanwx
Before you read your daily weather, a few seconds at the first map at

http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html

is time well spent. The history of the jet stream for the last five years is the story major climate change. That the jet stream is back is wonderful but it's still in a kind of a 'locked up' phase. Most of last summer it had degraded as the thermal difference between the temporate hadley cell and the polar hadley fell below enough difference.
I think the break through in modeling on computers last year was the inclusion of a 450 mb map.
Somebody here mentioned the last couple of days about weirdness at the ECZ, what was that? How can I see that?

Quoting vanwx:
 That the jet stream is back is wonderful
It left?
48 hr water vapor loop. Takes a while to load, but totally worth it.
ASCAT of the wave just off Africa.
726. vanwx
Quoting KoritheMan:

It left?


Yeah, it seemed tome the north bound air just went all the wayto the pole. The jet stream rides in the convergence zone.

Quoting vanwx:


Yeah, it seemed tome the north bound air just went all the wayto the pole. The jet stream rides in the convergence zone.
I'm aware of that. I was just saying that it sounded like you were saying that the jet stream had completely vanished, when pretty much all weather is driven by jet stream amplification.
728. vanwx
My apologies for 'tpyos'!
729. plebe
Longtime lurker, first time poster. Just wanted to say thanks to Dr. Masters for hosting what may be the best forum on the web, and to all the posters who provide the analysis, the updates, the insights, and the fantastic graphics found here. Quite a community.


IMHO, I think the links between climate change (i.e. record low Arctic sea ice extents and atmospheric circulation patterns, abnormally warm coastal waters, length of the hurricane season) and Sandy's enormous size and behaviour are impossible to ignore. I worry that the climate models are in fact too conservative, and that an ice-free Arctic will mean huge changes for northern Hemisphere weather patterns - these 'unknown unknowns' may hold even bigger and nastier surprises than Sandy.


Back to lurking...
730. vanwx
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm aware of that. I was just saying that it sounded like you were saying that the jet stream had completely vanished, when pretty much all weather is driven by jet stream amplification.


Nice boring summer in the CONUS and nice boring weather at the Pole, except that rare polar storm when it had to dump too much air to do it and had to go Polar cane. (I know, air down and not up at the eye).

Quoting plebe:
Longtime lurker, first time poster. Just wanted to say thanks to Dr. Masters for hosting what may be the best forum on the web, and to all the posters who provide the analysis, the updates, the insights, and the fantastic graphics found here. Quite a community.


IMHO, I think the links between climate change (i.e. record low Arctic sea ice extents and atmospheric circulation patterns, abnormally warm coastal waters, length of the hurricane season) and Sandy's enormous size and behaviour are impossible to ignore. I worry that the climate models are in fact too conservative, and that an ice-free Arctic will mean huge changes for northern Hemisphere weather patterns - these 'unknown unknowns' may hold even bigger and nastier surprises than Sandy.


Back to lurking...
I'm as big as a global warming advocate as they come, but it's just ridiculous to say that greenhouse gas emissions are directly responsible for Sandy. Nothing that occurred with this storm was unprecedented, except perhaps its size. New York City isn't a stranger to hurricanes. I'm solidly with Dr. Gray when I insinuate, quite confidently, that Atlantic hurricanes are not becoming more frequent or intense due to global warming. That may eventually be the case decades from now when the planetary warming becomes immense and the oceans consequently warm (even moreso than they have now). The reason I say no to global warming causing an increasing number of tropical cyclones and intense hurricanes is rather rudimentary: as far as we can tell, the only real net increase in tropical cyclone activity has been in the Atlantic, which leads me to believe it is largely due to natural causes and the inherent variability in large-scale weather patterns, and also due to our improved ability to detect tropical cyclones in general, namely satellite and scatterometer data.
Quoting plebe:
Longtime lurker, first time poster. Just wanted to say thanks to Dr. Masters for hosting what may be the best forum on the web, and to all the posters who provide the analysis, the updates, the insights, and the fantastic graphics found here. Quite a community.


IMHO, I think the links between climate change (i.e. record low Arctic sea ice extents and atmospheric circulation patterns, abnormally warm coastal waters, length of the hurricane season) and Sandy's enormous size and behaviour are impossible to ignore. I worry that the climate models are in fact too conservative, and that an ice-free Arctic will mean huge changes for northern Hemisphere weather patterns - these 'unknown unknowns' may hold even bigger and nastier surprises than Sandy.


Back to lurking...

A good explanation on why your reasoning is wrong.

Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm as big as a global warming advocate as they come, but it's just ridiculous to say that greenhouse gas emissions are directly responsible for Sandy. Nothing that occurred with this storm was unprecedented, except perhaps its size. New York City isn't a stranger to hurricanes. I'm solidly with Dr. Gray when I insinuate, quite confidently, that Atlantic hurricanes are not becoming more frequent or intense due to global warming. That may eventually be the case decades from now when the planetary warming becomes immense and the oceans consequently warm (even moreso than they have now). The reason I say no to global warming causing an increasing number of tropical cyclones and intense hurricanes is rather rudimentary: as far as we can tell, the only real net increase in tropical cyclone activity has been in the Atlantic, which leads me to believe it is largely due to natural causes and the inherent variability in large-scale weather patterns, and also due to our improved ability to detect tropical cyclones in general, namely satellite and scatterometer data.
That being said, I agree with your assertion that the prognosis of the climate models are likely conservative. In fact, I believe there's evidence of change in jet stream patterns now, but I cannot definitively link that to global warming.
Quoting CaneWolf:
48 hr water vapor loop. Takes a while to load, but totally worth it.


Shows the incredible power of Sandy's circulation... she is the reason the Gulf isn't nearly as dry as it once was.
Quoting Civicane49:

I really wish people who keep posting these rainbow loops would understand that much of what is shown on them has no relation to ground truth. By looking at that graphic, one would think that Alabama had some kind of weather happening. Here's what the regional radar looks like right now:



The scattered green is ground clutter. It's clear as a bell over Alabama. Stick to normal IR loops. I have no clue why rainbows keep getting posted, since they always show things that aren't real.
The scariest thing I've noticed this summer has been the lack of sea ice reducing the variation of where the polar high was. Instead of moving around it parked over the cold of Greenland causing a steady ring of twirling lows around it & then drier south of that. Hope everyone enjoyed their weather this summer. Will be interesting to see how much ENSO can affect this.
Quoting wildheron:
what about all the homeless people in NYC (and other cities) where do they go? how do they know about evacuations? haven't heard any mention of this issue in the ongoing coverage. back to lurking.....

In most places, walking 10 or 15 blocks put you out of the flood zones. The homeless went to shelters or back on their grates, just like every day. The homeless wil be better off for the next week or, since the Red Cross and Salvation Army will have more shelters than usual, and more food will be available. After that, life for the homeless resumes as normal. For them, every day is a disaster, and Sandy didn't make it much worse.
Quoting sar2401:

I really wish people who keep posting these rainbow loops would understand that much of what is shown on them has no relation to ground truth. By looking at that graphic, one would think that Alabama had some kind of weather happening. Here's what the regional radar looks like right now:



The scattered green is ground clutter. It's clear as a bell over Alabama. Stick to normal IR loops. I have no clue why rainbows keep getting posted, since they always show things that aren't real.


Radar doesn't show clouds that aren't producing rain like rainbow does. Those clouds over AL may & it's an outside chance..bring me rain tomorrow. So I'm cheering for them.

High clouds can be fairly red on Rainbow & still not be producing rain. It can help locate circulations at night if you know what color lower clouds are. The trick is being able to decipher them.
Quoting Skyepony:

Nope, just looked ut the windows again, and the sky is still clear in central Alabama, right where those storm clouds are shown on the rainbow IR. {sigh}
Nope, just looked out the windows again, and the sky is still clear in central Alabama, right where those storm clouds are shown on the rainbow IR.

Defend it all you want, Skye, but I'm located directly under that alleged cloud mass and nothing is there. I've seen this over and over again with rainbow images. The rainbow images are not good indicators of where clouds are located, let alone precipitation and intensity of storms.
Quoting sar2401:

I really wish people who keep posting these rainbow loops would understand that much of what is shown on them has no relation to ground truth. By looking at that graphic, one would think that Alabama had some kind of weather happening. Here's what the regional radar looks like right now:



The scattered green is ground clutter. It's clear as a bell over Alabama. Stick to normal IR loops. I have no clue why rainbows keep getting posted, since they always show things that aren't real.


Infrared/Rainbow satellite image depicts high clouds over Alabama that isn't producing rain. Of course, satellite images show cloud temperature not the rain. The amount of rain can be found by using the doppler radar like you posted.



Later all.
Sorry sar2401, but I'm taking Skyepony's side on this one.

Quoting wxmod:
When they said 17000 flights had been canceled because of Sandy, I breathed a sigh of relief. These are ships producing these clouds, in the Pacific. MODIS


There are times when I wish satellite photography had never been developed.....
Quoting Slamguitar:
Sorry sar2401, but I'm taking Skyepony's side on this one.



Are satellite images more reliable than in situ observations?
Quoting Slamguitar:
Sorry sar2401, but I'm taking Skyepony's side on this one.


OK, I apparently have suffered a complete loss of vision and can't see high clouds, even when the moon is up. They must be some kind of magic clouds. Maybe WXMOD can explain them. :)

Edit: Apparently every weather station in Alabama has suddenly developed the same disorder! This has to be a sign that they must be...yes....chemtrails. :)

Every station in Alabama currently reporting clear skies
Quoting sar2401:
Nope, just looked out the windows again, and the sky is still clear in central Alabama, right where those storm clouds are shown on the rainbow IR.

Defend it all you want, Skye, but I'm located directly under that alleged cloud mass and nothing is there. I've seen this over and over again with rainbow images. The rainbow images are not good indicators of where clouds are located, let alone precipitation and intensity of storms.


Those aren't storm clouds...every little shade of color on rainbow isn't rain or even a cloud. There is a lot of subtle info you are missing there. It's returning moisture in the air. I'd bet the humidity is higher in that area then central GA..The lack of clutter return on the radar in GA you posted kinda confirms this. But I couldn't track that bit of moisture on radar like I could on rainbow. Click the pic to loop. If that can get at all over the GOM before it gets drawn over FL tomorrow, someone may see sprinkles.. You can't get that from the radar alone.
Remember, these sat images can be nearly an hour old, and our world is a lot larger than these tiny images make them out to be.

Clouds can form and dissipate fast and we look up at a very small section of sky.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Are satellite images more reliable than in situ observations?

I guess so. Satellites are much better at seeing things I can't while looking up in the sky. Satellites are all scientific and geeky, so their cameras are always to be trusted. :)
Quoting Slamguitar:
Remember, these sat images can be nearly an hour old, and our world is a lot larger than these tiny images make them out to be.

Clouds can form and dissipate fast and we look up at a very small section of sky.



Also a good point..

Many times though the lightest shades of IR can be picking up on nothing more than higher moisture.


Awesome satellite view of the life of Sandy..
Quoting sar2401:

I guess so. Satellites are much better at seeing things I can't while looking up in the sky. Satellites are all scientific and geeky, so their cameras are always to be trusted. :)


See comment 749. No one is doubting what you see in your area. I'm not questioning what you saw. I don't know why everything has to contradict everything...
Quoting sar2401:

I guess so. Satellites are much better at seeing things I can't while looking up in the sky. Satellites are all scientific and geeky, so their cameras are always to be trusted. :)


That's why there is several satellites. The passes & info are compared at every chance to make sure what the satellites show aren't illusions.

Could you imagine dealing with Sandy with only radar? How surprising the size would have been then..
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
8:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Red Message


At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northwestward and now lays centered near 11.0N 81.0E or about 260 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 300 km north of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm and move northwestward while crossing northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Puducherry and Nellore, close to Chennai by afternoon/evening of October 31st.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
9 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
15 HRS: 13.5N 79.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 15.5N 77.5E - Low Pressure Area
Fresh TERRA pass of Nilam.
Quoting Skyepony:


Those aren't storm clouds...every little shade of color on rainbow isn't rain or even a cloud. There is a lot of subtle info you are missing there. It's returning moisture in the air. I'd bet the humidity is higher in that area then central GA..The lack of clutter return on the radar in GA you posted kinda confirms this. But I couldn't track that bit of moisture on radar like I could on rainbow. Click the pic to loop. If that can get at all over the GOM before it gets drawn over FL tomorrow, someone may see sprinkles.. You can't get that from the radar alone.

Let's test that theory, Skye

Montgomery AL: Temp 47, DP, 35 RH, 63%
Albany GA: Temp 44, DP 32, RH, 63%

Albany in not under that "cloud" deck and yet still has the same RH. Sometimes satellites are just wrong, and rainbow images are more wrong than most.
Just looked up at the sky in mid Michigan. I have high level clouds. These images suggests I don't. That doesn't mean I can't trust satellite imagery anymore. First thing I look at is the time stamp. More than 45 minutes ago. Fast wind from the north is carrying high level clouds south towards me on the loop and in the meantime, different areas of clouds are forming and dissipating at a fast level.

It's a process of taking multiple sources and synthesizing a big picture of the atmosphere, something meteorologists should be at least familiar with. How could we forecast well without this?



Good thing this isn't real.

Quoting Slamguitar:


See comment 749. No one is doubting what you see in your area. I'm not questioning what you saw. I don't know why everything has to contradict everything...

Either I should be able to see something, being directly under whatever is being shown on the satellite photos, or the satellite photos are picking up some kind of anomaly that a human observer with 50 years experience looking at the sky can't. see. I choose to believe what I can see (along with all the other weather stations in Alabama) and just admit that satellites can sometimes be wrong.
Quoting sar2401:

Let's test that theory, Skye

Montgomery AL: Temp 47, DP, 35 RH, 63%
Albany GA: Temp 44, DP 32, RH, 63%

Albany in not under that "cloud" deck and yet still has the same RH. Sometimes satellites are just wrong, and rainbow images are more wrong than most.


Sometime the lower layer is dryer..those light yellow & green on rainbow are more telling of mid layers. Maybe check the soundings or precipital Water.

Check out the liquid cloud water with Nilam..is kind of old though..
Quoting sar2401:

Either I should be able to see something, being directly under whatever is being shown on the satellite photos, or the satellite photos are picking up some kind of anomaly that a human observer with 50 years experience looking at the sky can't. see. I choose to believe what I can see (along with all the other weather stations in Alabama) and just admit that satellites can sometimes be wrong.



I guess the difference between us is you admit that satellites can sometimes be wrong whereas I admit that satellites can sometimes be wrong and gather different sources, understand that info can be outdated, combine my visual observations with given weather trends, and form reasoning as to why the satellites can sometimes be wrong.

This is why I don't think rainbow images are useless.
Quoting Skyepony:


Sometime the lower layer is dryer..those light yellow & green on rainbow are more telling of mid layers. Maybe check the soundings or precipital Water.

Check out the liquid cloud water with Nilam..is kind of old though..

While I generally agree, and I am kind of yanking your chain, Skye (thanks for being a good sport), there are times that satellites do pick up things that aren't there and translate them into whatever it knows should be there, given what data it sees and how it's programmed to show that data. Surely you'd agree (I know, don't call me Shirley) :) that there are times that even satellites can just be wrong. This one just jumped out at me tonight as being one of those times.
Quoting Slamguitar:



I guess the difference between us is you admit that satellites can sometimes be wrong whereas I admit that satellites can sometimes be wrong and gather different sources, understand that info can be outdated, combine my visual observations with given weather trends, and form reasoning as to why the satellites can sometimes be wrong.

This is why I don't think rainbow images are useless.

Oh, I don't believe they are useless, mostly for reasons Skye has already explained. I do believe that rainbow images tend to give the impression that a lot more is going on than may be having any sensible effect on the weather.
Quoting sar2401:

Oh, I don't believe they are useless, mostly for reasons Skye has already explained. I do believe that rainbow images tend to give the impression that a lot more is going on than may be having any sensible effect on the weather.


Ok, I can agree on that. ;)

You just gotta know to treat these images differently, because sometimes they can come in handy even more than other color schemes.
I agree with slamguitar..

It's hard to see aerosols & smoke diffused as well as increased moisture when you look up.

Even my local weather guy was pointing to that moisture with a hope of rain tomorrow.

Picking Albany, GA on the SW corner in the moisture for a GA RH# isn't exactly in the middle dry area I was pointing to either..though by the color it's probilby higher up. I deserve that for not fetching my own numbers..
Quoting dogsgomoo:
There was an image of a house earlier today with a big chunk missing yet the roof was still perfect on top.


People were saying it was fake. It seems that the house itself looks to be real and is located in Union Bay, NJ and the damage looks legit. Sometimes reality is way weird.


I was one of the people questioning the authenticity of that photo. It certainly seems to look legitimate, seeing the second photo from a different angle. My main points in regards to this and other photos coming from unknown sources remains:

1. It's sad there are so many sick people out there creating fake pictures, FB pages, and twitter feeds. We now have to question what information is really true, and have to sort through the fakes.

2. This photo was not "breaking" news, and looks just as impressive now as it did this afternoon. By waiting to post things until we get some confirmation, we are defeating the aims of these fraudsters. It's very similar to ignoring trolls here. Don't give them attention and they will go away.
Quoting Skyepony:
I agree with slamguitar..

It's hard to see aerosols & smoke diffused as well as increased moisture when you look up.

Even my local weather guy was pointing to that moisture with a hope of rain tomorrow.

Picking Albany, GA on the SW corner in the moisture for a GA RH# isn't exactly in the middle dry area I was pointing to either..though by the color it's probilby higher up. I deserve that for not fetching my own numbers..

Unfortunately, our weather guys see no chance for rain until Sunday...maybe. I hope whatever that "blob" is, it will bring some rain to Florida. Between the wind and low RH's here, we've had a bunch of red flag warnings up.

P.S. I still think it's chemtrails. :)
Would like to point out in response to sar2401's invisible "clouds", that IR satellite images do not see "clouds" exactly, they see temperature. They exploit the fact that the tops of clouds are so damned cold and block the ground's IR emissions in order to image the cloud cover.

That means any area that is particularly cold, or covered with snow, can appear as "clouds" on IR sat imagery if you're not experienced enough to recognize what's really going on there. The enhancement coloring threshold being at too high a temperature will make this issue more pronounced.
Quoting Skyepony:
I agree with slamguitar..

It's hard to see aerosols & smoke diffused as well as increased moisture when you look up.

Even my local weather guy was pointing to that moisture with a hope of rain tomorrow.

Picking Albany, GA on the SW corner in the moisture for a GA RH# isn't exactly in the middle dry area I was pointing to either..though by the color it's probilby higher up. I deserve that for not fetching my own numbers..
That's UV imagery, not IR, it's used to image levels of moisture that don't block visible light. It seems moisture that you cannot, by design. And that moisture (humidity) doesn't have to be present at ground level to be seen of course...
If a bird heard singing in the dark(P.252) can be used to forecast the worst power outage in world history due to drought; why not a bird seen sipping energy from the largest electric utility, to forecast the worst power outage in U.S. history, due to windstorm?

"Eating it too, is the name of this forecast." April 24, 2012

Can men believe the earth is their toilet, and not know that she can flush?












Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
If a bird heard singing in the dark(P.252) can be used to forecast the worst power outage in world history due to drought; why not a bird seen sipping energy from the largest electric utility, to forecast the worst power outage in U.S. history, due to windstorm?

"Eating it too, is the name of this forecast." April 24, 2012

Can men believe the earth is their toilet, and not know that she can flush?














lolwut
Quoting testbenchdude:


lolwut
Indeed
Good Morning Folks 7-day for the Tampa Bay area..........
Feels like that blasting cold wind has died outside...
And so it ends:

invest_DEACTIVATE_al182012.ren

Goodbye, and good riddance.
Low quality, but since there was a dispute yesterday about the veracity of a similar photograph
779. MahFL
Quoting wildheron:
what about all the homeless people in NYC (and other cities) where do they go? how do they know about evacuations? haven't heard any mention of this issue in the ongoing coverage. back to lurking.....


The Red Cross help them. Also they are not stupid, and it's NYC, the city that never sleeps, so there is always a TV on somewhere.
Good morning/evening, all. I'm watching the aftermath of Sandy. They were talking about people in Hoboken stuck in their houses due to live wires in the water in the streets in front of their house, water that filled with sewage. It will be weeks for some areas, if not more, for some areas to be cleaned up. I think the Northeast has had a taste of what the south goes through and will never again for many years be complacent about the possibility of a hurricane coming towards them. My thoughts and prayers to people who are still trapped by flood waters, etc., of Sandy.
Has everyone from here checked in since Sandy? It's so hard sometimes to remember where everyone is. I remember thinking the same thing with Issac, but it was easier because we tend to remember those from our own state. I'm in Louisiana, so tend to remember who also is from here. Has anyone heard from Sully yet? Maybe the next time before a disaster we could put together a list of who may be in the path of a disaster so we know who to look for and send thoughts and prayers to.
654 centex: It was a large Cat 1 hurricane at landfall. The insurance guys just need to pay as policy says. What is the issue?

The NHC handed over reporting to the NWS before landfall. So officially, Sandy wasn't a hurricane at landfall or thereafter.
Many policies specificly exclude hurricane damage, others specificly exclude damage from hurricane-force winds, yet others specificly exclude damage from flooding, etc
Hurricane Sandy: The Superstorm Gallery.

The awesome power of Mother Nature
Quoting aspectre:
654 centex: It was a large Cat 1 hurricane at landfall. The insurance guys just need to pay as policy says. What is the issue?

The NHC handed over reporting to the NWS before landfall. So officially, Sandy wasn't a hurricane at landfall or thereafter.
Many policies specificly exclude hurricane damage, others specificly exclude damage from hurricane-force winds, yet others specificly exclude damage from flooding, etc


My heart goes out to those who did not have flood insurance, especially those who are retired or a lower income bracket.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm as big as a global warming advocate as they come, but it's just ridiculous to say that greenhouse gas emissions are directly responsible for Sandy. Nothing that occurred with this storm was unprecedented, except perhaps its size.


Water level in NY Harbor is a foot higher than it was 100 years ago. Flooding was unprecedented.

Also to say that nothing is unprecedented except its size is kind of silly. That's the whole point - the size is unprecedented that far north.

788. beell
One of the many reasons cited by NASA in not awarding placement of a Space Shuttle at the Johnson Space Center in Houston was what appeared to be a higher risk of damage from a tropical cyclone (haha). At least we would have put it inside. Not in an inflatable tent...



Scientific American editor Christine Gorman snapped this shot above of the space shuttle Enterprise on the Intrepid Sea, Air & Space Museum at 2:30 PM today from 42nd Street near the Hudson River. Enterprise was a full-scale shuttle used to test plans for the fleet of space shuttles that followed and carried astronauts for 135 missions, including one that delivered the Hubble Space Telescope into orbit and others focused on repairing and upgrading the telescope. After long stints in a hangar near Dulles International Airport in Virginia and at the Smithsonian’s National Air and Space Museum‘s Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center at Dulles, Enterprise was flown to New York City earlier this year and eventually transported to and hoisted onto the Intrepid, located on a pier in the Hudson River along the West Side of Manhattan. The shuttle’s temporary shelter was damaged during Sandy, and the shuttle sustained some damage to its vertical stabilizer.
–Robin Lloyd

Scientific American Liveblog/Oct 29,2012


Credit: NASA


Above: The new 53,000-square-foot space shuttle exhibit at Space Center Houston, the official visitor center for NASA's Johnson Space Center in Texas, will focus on the human side of shuttle operations, including astronaut activities.
Credit: Space Center Houston
Good morning.
Hurricane Sandy: After 'incalculable' loss, recovery begins
Link
Quoting Pirate999:


Now much c02 is then released due to ice melting?


Ummm...Ice is frozen water. No chemical reaction. No CO2 release.

You have it exactly backwards. Higher CO2 levels mean more heat from the sun is trapped in the earth's atmosphere. More heat = higher temps. Higher temps = less ice.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Has everyone from here checked in since Sandy? It's so hard sometimes to remember where everyone is. I remember thinking the same thing with Issac, but it was easier because we tend to remember those from our own state. I'm in Louisiana, so tend to remember who also is from here. Has anyone heard from Sully yet? Maybe the next time before a disaster we could put together a list of who may be in the path of a disaster so we know who to look for and send thoughts and prayers to.

I did a blog last year asking people to leave there location. Check it out if you want, your on there. There is a few on there I am worried about.
Quoting aspectre:
Low quality, but since there was a dispute yesterday about the veracity of a similar photograph


I saw this part on the aerial flyover by the Coast Guard. I think it's Mantoloking going by google maps. There is actually a huge gas fire burning there right now, and the firefighters can't get there because the bridge is destroyed and the streets are covered with sand.
Is anyone else seeing this??

* * * * * * * Technical Note * * * * * * *
Wed Oct 31 2012 21:56:03 GMT+1100 (AUS Eastern Daylight Time)
For ease in navigation, we recommend typing in your "City, St" or Zip Code in the upper left hand corner of this web page to get forecasts, warnings and other information for your area.
A cut fiberoptic line belonging to a commercial phone company has disrupted websites serving the Eastern Region. As this issue is being resolved, we are now operating our websites in backup mode.

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, that's quite a collection of blather, even for D'Aleo. A real Gish Gallop featuring comments from the debunked and discredited--Pielke, Hoerling, Michaels--interspersed with cherry-picked, out-of-context statements from other scientists, sprinkled with ad hominems, and thoroughly topped with obfuscatory bits of info that have no bearing on reality. That's not the first such diatribe I've seen today; with multiple-recordbreaker Sandy occurring on top of the increasing number and severity of extreme weather events the entire globe is seeing, the denialists doubtless realize their side and POV have been diminished even further, so such manufactured and dishonest rants are understandable, if not forgivable.

Anyone who tries to claim--even discounting Sandy--that the more than 3.4 million metric tons of long-lasting, heat-trapping, fossil fuel-based CO2 we humans pump into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day has no effect on the weather or the climate is in absolute denial of reality. Period. The climate is changing far faster than scientists predicted even a few short years ago, and there's no sign of that trend reversing.




You are so predictable. Every notable weather event be it, drought, heat wave, extreme cold, blizzard, big hurricane seasons,dead hurricane seasons, deluge, name it, you come out and blame AGW. Was the long Island Express (1938 New England Hurricane)that by todays standards wouldn't have been a hurricane, was that AGW too? Storms happen.
we stayed out of harms way for the most part here we hunkered down and there was alot of debris and flying projectiles all night long
Good Morning..

I was watching my news this morning and they said estimates will be 20 billion in property real estate losses and 30 billion in loss of income from businesses and employees but the rebuilding of houses and businesses will balance out and not have an effect on our economy..thats good news if anything from Sandy that it will put some people to work who currently dont have jobs..
remember andrew?
Good morning beell. Long time no see. Hope all is well
Good morning all! Did any of you recently get your power turned back on? where are you located?
okay off to work..have a great day everyone

I posted about the next storm last night..

From Facebook this morning..

Henry Margusity Fan Club
Lets keep an eye out on the next storm next week. NAO still negative and could mean another east coast storm, but not like Sandy.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You are so predictable. Every notable weather event be it, drought, heat wave, extreme cold, blizzard, big hurricane seasons,dead hurricane seasons, deluge, name it, you come out and blame AGW. Was the long Island Express (1938 New England Hurricane)that by todays standards wouldn't have been a hurricane, was that AGW too? Storms happen.
What's really predictable is the bleating from denialists like D'Aleo and Morano in the immediate aftermath of every extreme weather event that global warming had absolutely nothing to do with it. But what's even more predictable is that the 3.4 million metric tons of long-lasting, heat-trapping anthropogenic CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every hour of every day is going to continue having an increasingly huge impact on the weather.

For about the hundredth time, no one is "blaming" Sandy on GW, nor is anyone saying GW "caused" Sandy. That, again, is a lame and overused straw man argument. Of course Sandy would have happened in the absence of man-made CO2. But as Dr. Masters has himself explained numerous times, the climate dice have been loaded by us, so extreme weather events are measurably increasing in both frequency and severity.

It's pretty simple, really.
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
200 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2012

...ROSA PARKS ITSELF WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

804. beell
Quoting greenengineer:


Water level in NY Harbor is a foot higher than it was 100 years ago. Flooding was unprecedented.

Also to say that nothing is unprecedented except its size is kind of silly. That's the whole point - the size is unprecedented that far north.



An almost Sandy. Same type of genesis and large scale circulation.
Tropical Storm Nicole 2010/Wikipedia
805. beell
Mornin' FM!
seems we are getting alot of hundred yr storms of recent. remember the s. burma storm? another rare breed. its been downhill since then
Quoting HurrikanEB:
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
200 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2012

...ROSA PARKS ITSELF WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...



Good catch!

Good morning to all.

Quoting beell:


An almost Sandy. Same type of genesis and large scale circulation.
Tropical Storm Nicole 2010/Wikipedia
Nicole was a mess. We had worse weather from that system before it was declared than after... prolly got an inch of rain between 7:30 and 9 a.m. the morning it passed through here... then nothing.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You are so predictable. Every notable weather event be it, drought, heat wave, extreme cold, blizzard, big hurricane seasons,dead hurricane seasons, deluge, name it, you come out and blame AGW. Was the long Island Express (1938 New England Hurricane)that by todays standards wouldn't have been a hurricane, was that AGW too? Storms happen.


No weather event can be directly attributed to climate or climate change in the sense of being "caused" by it. But extreme weather events of almost all types are increasing in frequency and/or magnitude. This is scientific fact - ironically enough, because it is scientific fact, it is, in a way, predictable.
Good morning from a bright sunny day in Germany. Interesting article on NYT this morning:

For Years, Warnings That It Could Happen Here

By DAVID W. CHEN and MIREYA NAVARRO
Published: October 30, 2012

The warnings came, again and again. For nearly a decade, scientists have told city and state officials that New York faces certain peril: rising sea levels, more frequent flooding and extreme weather patterns. The alarm bells grew louder after Tropical Storm Irene last year, when the city shut down its subway system and water rushed into the Rockaways and Lower Manhattan.

On Tuesday, as New Yorkers woke up to submerged neighborhoods and water-soaked electrical equipment, officials took their first tentative steps toward considering major infrastructure changes that could protect the city’s fragile shores and eight million residents from repeated disastrous damage.

Read more
Quoting Neapolitan:
Of course Sandy would have happened in the absence of man-made CO2. But as Dr. Masters has himself explained numerous times, the climate dice have been loaded by us, so extreme weather events are measurably increasing in both frequency and severity.

It's pretty simple, really.

Just remember, as climate changes more and more, this statement may actually start becoming less true. Over time, climate will change so much that events will start occurring (or not occurring) that would not have happened under a stable climate. Due to the fact that a single event cannot be attributable to climate or climate change, we will never know exactly how this has changed or which events, just that the frequency and/or magnitude has changed.
The TW in the eastern Atlantic looks good maybe it will become Valerie in the coming days.
Local news here in West Palm Beach, Florida reports $12 million in damage here to beaches alone from Hurricane Sandy (what a great name for a hurricane - right on a par with Wendy and Serge). A relative drop in the bucket, but as Father Guido Sarducci notes, "It adds up!"
Quoting beell:
Mornin' FM!


:) Hope all is well.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning to all.

Nicole was a mess. We had worse weather from that system before it was declared than after... prolly got an inch of rain between 7:30 and 9 a.m. the morning it passed through here... then nothing.


21 inches of rain here..
816. beell
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning to all.

Nicole was a mess. We had worse weather from that system before it was declared than after... prolly got an inch of rain between 7:30 and 9 a.m. the morning it passed through here... then nothing.


Nicole was a mess. Sandy was initially a large mess with convection heavily weighted to the east. Sandy also ran into an upper shortwave shortly after leaving the Caribbean which continued the expansion of her windfield as she flirted with sub-tropical status.

Apparently, AGW did not provide the right set of synoptics to make Nicole's development "more likely".
Sandy is falling apart now.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
14:30 PM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For Northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining Southern Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Red Message


At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved north northwestward during the last 6 hours and now lays centered near 12.0N 80.5E or about 120 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 70 km east of Puducherry, India. Latest radar imagery and coastal observation indicate that Cyclonic Storm Nilam is now beginning to cross Tamil Nadu (India) coast.
Quoting sar2401:



1. It's sad there are so many sick people out there creating fake pictures, FB pages, and twitter feeds. We now have to question what information is really true, and have to sort through the fakes.

2. away.


True...well except for the godzilla ones LOL

I think I've used most my bandwidth for the month viewing video of the storm. I'm particularly fascinated by the storm surge ones. And thanks to those posting the 'life of Sally' loops.

I like some of you arguing about satellites than GW :P

And to those who've mentioned Disney buying Lucas Arts and saying a SW 7 will be out in a few years...I love SW, but have to say, AM a bit worried about a Disney SW....though, some of Lucas SW were a bit scary when you think of Ep 1...soooo LOL will see. Guess that means he's retiring with a nice nest egg then LOL
Do the long range forecast models show any potential storms forming?
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Just remember, as climate changes more and more, this statement may actually start becoming less true. Over time, climate will change so much that events will start occurring (or not occurring) that would not have happened under a stable climate. Due to the fact that a single event cannot be attributable to climate or climate change, we will never know exactly how this has changed or which events, just that the frequency and/or magnitude has changed.
Speaking of all that, here's something I ran across in a piece on TIME.com yesterday:

"[I]f you are in your 60s or 70s or 80s, Sandy's destructive forces are a once in your lifetime event. But younger generations—those of us in our fifties, and our children—will likely be looking at flooded coastal cities, devastated infrastructure, blownout power, and storm surges for the rest of our lives.

We've got to stop this 'angels dancing on the head of a pin' argument about the connections between individual storms and climate change. Scientists can—and should—try to parse out each and every contributor to a storm. That's their job. But policy makers cannot afford to do so--or to wait for definitive answers. The overall picture is dire enough. Our climate is changing, for the worse. Reliability and predictability of climate patterns? That, too, belongs to an older generation. We need only look at the role of warmer North Atlantic ocean temperatures in Sandy’s growth to see this."


Can't say I disagree...
Quoting FtMyersgal:


:) Hope all is well.
Quoting Neapolitan:
What's really predictable is the bleating from denialists like D'Aleo and Morano in the immediate aftermath of every extreme weather event that global warming had absolutely nothing to do with it. But what's even more predictable is that the 3.4 million metric tons of long-lasting, heat-trapping anthropogenic CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every hour of every day is going to continue having an increasingly huge impact on the weather.

For about the hundredth time, no one is "blaming" Sandy on GW, nor is anyone saying GW "caused" Sandy. That, again, is a lame and overused straw man argument. Of course Sandy would have happened in the absence of man-made CO2. But as Dr. Masters has himself explained numerous times, the climate dice have been loaded by us, so extreme weather events are measurably increasing in both frequency and severity.

It's pretty simple, really.

But even if the planet warms some, it doesn't mean that there will be more severe events.
..
Not sure if it's smart attributing every single weather event (including Sandy) as a direct result of climate change. I see that sparsely in other places, but mostly here among the typical posters driving this false assertion. I don't know why they continue to do this.

Climate is a culmination of weather events (extreme or not) over the course typically of 30 years or more. Sandy--in and of itself--is not considered climate. Sandy is a weather event.
Quoting greenengineer:


Water level in NY Harbor is a foot higher than it was 100 years ago. Flooding was unprecedented.

Also to say that nothing is unprecedented except its size is kind of silly. That's the whole point - the size is unprecedented that far north.



The atmosphere had perfect conditions for Sandy. The gulf stream was 1-2F warmer than normal. However, the water temps were only near 80F right at the stream, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. So saying that Sandy is a direct result of GW is not correct.


Quoting Dakster:
Do the long range forecast models show any potential storms forming?
I think they suggested something forming in the Carribean
Quoting AussieStorm:

I did a blog last year asking people to leave there location. Check it out if you want, your on there. There is a few on there I am worried about.


What a great idea, Aussie! I added myself this morning.

Lindy
Quoting txag91met:

But even if the planet warms some, it doesn't mean that there will be more severe events.


Research has already suggested the opposite, and shown evidence that it's not just hypothetical or predicted, it may already be happening.
Research has shown that the trough/ridge pattern of the jet stream is amplifying, which slows down larger-scale weather patterns. This means more time in a heat wave favorable pattern, more time in a cold spell favorable pattern, more time in a heavy rain favorable pattern, and so forth.
Quoting greenengineer:


Water level in NY Harbor is a foot higher than it was 100 years ago. Flooding was unprecedented.

Also to say that nothing is unprecedented except its size is kind of silly. That's the whole point - the size is unprecedented that far north.


No, it's not. Sandy wasn't completely tropical like most tropical systems we see. Yes, she was designated tropical, but in reality was probably more of a 80 to 20 ratio tropical cyclone Nor-Easter hybrid. Nor-Easters wind fields are not concentrated near the center. They are spread out, often amidst vast expansions of real estate.

In addition, tropical and subtropical systems' wind fields always expand as the storm moves more poleward. That is a fact that has been proven countless times over decades of climatological research for both warm core and semi-warm core systems (ie: subtropical entities).
Hi guys...

I just found out NHC has already some tropical cyclone reports for Bud, Emilia, Daniel and Florence...

I want to see some of the good ones.
Quoting AztecCe:
I think they suggested something forming in the Carribean


I've been hearing this too, but only on this blog. Anyone have any support for this? Haven't seen any model to predict this yet.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I did a blog last year asking people to leave there location. Check it out if you want, your on there. There is a few on there I am worried about.


Good evening and good morning Aussie, I was wondering have you heard from Washingtonian115? Been worried about her.

sheri
Quoting AztecCe:
I think they suggested something forming in the Carribean


a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Not sure if it's smart attributing every single weather event (including Sandy) as a direct result of climate change. I see that sparsely in other places, but mostly here among the typical posters driving this assertion. I don't know why they continue to do this.

Climate is a culmination of weather events (extreme or not) over the course typically of 30 years or more. Sandy--in and of itself--is not considered climate. Sandy is a weather event.
That statement seems to directly contradict itself. As we are experiencing climate change, wouldn't you have to include every single event in that culmination of events?
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Research has already suggested the opposite, and shown evidence that it's not just hypothetical or predicted, it may already be happening.
Research has shown that the trough/ridge pattern of the jet stream is amplifying, which slows down larger-scale weather patterns. This means more time in a heat wave favorable patter, more time in a cold spell favorable pattern, more time in a heavy rain favorable pattern, and so forth.
and lets not forget, the gulf stream is supposed to be moving more northward along the eastern US coastline in the years to come, that could..spell big trouble for more tropical systems in the northeast states, like sandy or even worse
Quoting Dakster:
Do the long range forecast models show any potential storms forming?
well europe should keep an eye on this out there in the atlantic...........
The article below just reconfirms to me why I appreciate the relationship we have between the two countries. I've seen this so many times over the years. If ever you needed "good will ambassadors" it would be these guys on both sides of the border!

Lindy

OTTAWA — A crew of Hydro Ottawa power line maintainers headed to Connecticut to help restore power to the 500,000 still in the dark in that state following hurricane Sandy.

The 13 workers will join a crew of 12 Hydro Ottawa contract forestry workers who are already in the state to clear trees as part of the power restoration effort.

This is the first time Hydro Ottawa has sent crews south of the border, said president and chief executive officer Bryce Conrad.

“Hydro Ottawa offered assistance without hesitation. Restoring power is a specialized skill and the electricity industry supports each other in these times of need,” Conrad said in a news release.

Hurricane Sandy, now downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone, caused widespread damage in the northeastern United States as it hammered the coast on Monday. Millions were left without power and at least 50 people were killed.

High winds of up to 100 km/h also uprooted trees and downed power lines in southern Ontario, from Sarnia to Kingston, leaving about 150,000 without power. A woman in Toronto was killed by a falling sign.

By Wednesday morning, power had been restore to all but 7,150 Hydro One customers.

Ottawa was spared the brunt of the storm — at its peak, it knocked out power to about 3,000 Hydro Ottawa customers.

cfedio@ottawacitizen.com


Read more: http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Second+Hydro+Ottawa+c rew+heads+storm+cleanup/7475488/story.html#ixzz2As ouvk9A
looks calm in the tropics..................
Quoting LargoFl:
looks calm in the tropics..................


look south of the Azores... something could eventually be going on there

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Not sure if it's smart attributing every single weather event (including Sandy) as a direct result of climate change. I see that sparsely in other places, but mostly here among the typical posters driving this false assertion. I don't know why they continue to do this.

Climate is a culmination of weather events (extreme or not) over the course typically of 30 years or more. Sandy--in and of itself--is not considered climate. Sandy is a weather event.
For the reading-impaired among you, allow me to repeat for the 100th time: no one is "attributing every single weather event (including Sandy) as a direct result of climate change". No one. No one who knows anything about climate is doing that, and certainly no one who is a scientist is doing that. To do so would be akin to telling a 60-year-old that the massive heart attack he just suffered was "caused" by a Quarter Pounder with Cheese he ate when he was a teenager. And to obfuscate the issue by continually claiming that scientists do make that claim is dishonest.

The only thing perhaps more ignorant than claiming Sandy was "caused" solely by global warming would be claiming global warming had nothing to do with Sandy. That so many have showed such ignorance over the last few days is sad and depressing...
Looks like we may get one more for the season.


South of the Azores.
To all over you who "overhyped" this storm... A since thank you. I really mean it.
Quoting MercForHire:
Have a question which I SHOULD know the answer to, but don't.

Weather just showed the Jet Stream making a perfect half-circle around Sandy's rear-end (That would be her bottom :) ). So did Sandy PULL the Jet Stream into that arc, or did Sandy slip into an arc which was already there, in effect pulling HER in?



An arc in the jet stream was discussed on TWC as a factor "sling-shotting" Sandy into the NE instead of allowing a re-curve out to sea.
847. 7544
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


look south of the Azores... something could eventually be going on there



looks to the caribeian blob been there scince yesterday holding it own maybe a yellow circle soon ?
.
Hurricane season has measurably lenthened, leading to more late October storms, is what I heard Dr. Master say. And increased ocean temperatures leads to more distructive hurricane winds. (increased ocean temperatures and lenthened hurricane seasons are a change in climate for those keeping score)

I didn't know the weather channel purchased WU! I must have missed that blog day.

Does that mean Jim C will be on here? Would that mean we would have more hurricanes on this blog? grin.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Fear-mongering on the left.



yaawwwnnnn.....


Just wondering...

I assume you do not believe in AGW, but do you believe that GW is occuring?

If yes to the above, do you think that CO2 levels are relevant?
Quoting FtMyersgal:
..
FtMyersgal.You have email
Quoting Neapolitan:
What's really predictable is the bleating from denialists like D'Aleo and Morano in the immediate aftermath of every extreme weather event that global warming had absolutely nothing to do with it. But what's even more predictable is that the 3.4 million metric tons of long-lasting, heat-trapping anthropogenic CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every hour of every day is going to continue having an increasingly huge impact on the weather.

For about the hundredth time, no one is "blaming" Sandy on GW, nor is anyone saying GW "caused" Sandy. That, again, is a lame and overused straw man argument. Of course Sandy would have happened in the absence of man-made CO2. But as Dr. Masters has himself explained numerous times, the climate dice have been loaded by us, so extreme weather events are measurably increasing in both frequency and severity.

It's pretty simple, really.


I almost got upset about what silliness you were barking and remembered that you were one of those bumpersticker people with the one that reads...

The AGW gang says it, I believe them and that is all there is to it.

No small wonder you say those things.

One thing you could do is to change your word usage and cadence because they both are getting a wee bit repetitious and boring as a result.


Quoting clamshell:


I almost got upset about what silliness you were barking and remembered that you were one of those bumpersticker people with the one that reads...

The AGW gang says it, I believe them and that is all there is to it.

No small wonder you say those things.

One thing you could do is to change your word usage and cadence because they both are getting a wee bit repetitious and boring as a result.





+1,000,000
856. MahFL
Quoting biff4ugo:
Hurricane season has measurably lenthened, leading to more late October storms, is what I heard Dr. Master say. And increased ocean temperatures leads to more distructive hurricane winds. (increased ocean temperatures and lenthened hurricane seasons are a change in climate for those keeping score)

I didn't know the weather channel purchased WU! I must have missed that blog day.

Does that mean Jim C will be on here? Would that mean we would have more hurricanes on this blog? grin.


Lol we spent weeks complaining about the sale.
Quoting luvtogolf:


God did not grant me with a very high IQ. I take offense to being called ignorant. Maybe you should go take a class on how to be a better person.


Love it! I am not a believer nor denier....I don't like falling into "camps". But I recognize contempt when I read it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_York_hurri canes
Caribbean blob looks interesting. If it moves close to the gulf it will get its head chopped off tho.
All of us watching noticed Sandy strengthening until landfall. She was traveling over a very toasty gulf stream that let the growth continue in northern latitudes.
I'm not saying the gulf stream is a product of climate change, but sligtly warmer ocean temperatures in the gulf stream are.
My inexpert interpretation is the cold cloud tops building on the morning before landfall was a product of the warm ocean temperatures that Sandy was over.
The exact difference in caloric energy available over a slightly cooler sea surface gulf stream compared to the one we have now, I haven't done.
Since everyone is talking AGW, I just want to throw my two cents in. Lol.

Saturn just had a northern-hemisphere "storm of the century" which spiked the upper atmospheric temperatures on Saturn.

Link

Does this mean it is completely SOLAR? No. Greenhouse gasses increase our sensitivity to SOLAR events. As the interior of a greenhouse warms up more quickly on a sunny day than the exterior there is global warming. We are nearing the end of a cold period. We are nowhere near the average temperatures of the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum. Link

Quoting clamshell:
The AGW gang says it, I believe them and that is all there is to it.


"The AGW gang" - an interesting new moniker for climate scientists using science to make scientific conclusions. A scarier and easier-to-attack noun than "scientists" or "experts."

Quoting clamshell:

One thing you could do is to change your word usage and cadence because they both are getting a wee bit repetitious and boring as a result.


If it's worded slightly differently by different scientists, we get told that there is no consensus and scientists' opinions differ. If it's the same factually-based, accurate statement over and over, it's "repetitious" and "boring." Guess scientists just can't win?
Quoting StormPro:


Love it! I am not a believer nor denier....I don't like falling into "camps". But I recognize contempt when I read it
I wonder just how many people deny that the Earth is warming because they simply like to argue. One would think folks who do make comments that global warming doesnt exist would have the I.Q. to realize that it does. They should argue how much humans may or may not be affecting the Earths climate, not whether or not that warming is happening as of now.
Atlantic becoming more hostile..
only Carribean and ITZ calm enough for any development..

Credit Intellicast..
Rosa is not going anywhere..

To reiterate the point (concerning the "hotter in the Cretaceous" comment). The issue is not *that* the climate is changing. The climate is always changing. The issue is the *rate* at which the climate is changing.
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder just how many people deny that the Earth is warming because they simply like to argue. One would think that folks who do make comments that global warming doesnt exist would have the I.Q. to realize that it is. They should argue how much humans may or may not be affecting the Earths climate, not whether or not that warming is happening as of now.
well wether we today believe it or not, its our kids and their kids who are going to find out IF its true or not and will have to deal with the changing weather and storms etc, my hope is, they will be as strong as we are, to deal with it all
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Fear-mongering on the left.



yaawwwnnnn.....


No, no, not fear. Knowledge. Understanding. (gasp) Science!

I always try to be respectful. So considering that, let me ask you- knowing Dr. Masters' stand on climate change, why do you even read this blog? Isn't that an act of hypocrisy itself? If you can't believe the provable science behind CO2 and changing climate, how can you believe anything he writes at all?

Please consider I did not name-call or belittle, and hope for a similar respectful answer.

And no, I am not a follower or a syncophant. A respected professor in college, Dr. Howard Quigley. introduced me to the thoery of AGW in 1989 and I have been learning and studying since then. That is probably the main reason I read this blog. I just can't understand why someone who is skeptical would bother to read it as well.
Quoting KarenRei:
To reiterate the point (concerning the "hotter in the Cretaceous" comment). The issue is not *that* the climate is changing. The climate is always changing. The issue is the *rate* at which the climate is changing.
thats a good point, and dont forget folks..the continents ARE moving, which is why we get the earthquakes, north america IS moving towards europe etc
Quoting HopquickSteve:
Since everyone is talking AGW, I just want to throw my two cents in. Lol.
Saturn just had a northern-hemisphere "storm of the century" which spiked the upper atmospheric temperatures on Saturn.
Link
Does this mean it is completely SOLAR? No. Greenhouse gasses increase our sensitivity to SOLAR events.

Although interesting, it's rather irrelevant to Earth as the atmospheric dynamics of Saturn are not that of Earth. it's not really a matter of "solar events" - it's more that greenhouse gases decrease the amount of heat that can leave Earth. This is a constant, gradual process and I do not recall any research showing that it is sensitive to solar "events."
Quoting HopquickSteve:
As the interior of a greenhouse warms up more quickly on a sunny day than the exterior there is global warming. We are nearing the end of a cold period.

A "cold period" as defined by...?
Quoting HopquickSteve:
We are nowhere near the average temperatures of the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum.

That temperature reconstrcution shows how sensitive the earth's climate is to natural forcings, which has helped climate scientists understand how sensitive climate may be to human induced forcings. Higher amplification of warm/cold periods in the past actually suggests stronger warming due to today's anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Quoting KarenRei:
The issue is not *that* the climate is changing. The climate is always changing. The issue is the *rate* at which the climate is changing.
x 100,000.
Quoting hydrus:
Caribbean blob looks interesting. If it moves close to the gulf it will get its head chopped off tho.
yes NHC had it as a purple watch area..isnt there today
Quoting KarenRei:
To reiterate the point (concerning the "hotter in the Cretaceous" comment). The issue is not *that* the climate is changing. The climate is always changing. The issue is the *rate* at which the climate is changing.


...well, and also the cause of the warming, which is relevant to the questions 1) is it inevitable or can it be stopped, and if so, 2) how?
Quoting greenengineer:


Water level in NY Harbor is a foot higher than it was 100 years ago. Flooding was unprecedented.

Also to say that nothing is unprecedented except its size is kind of silly. That's the whole point - the size is unprecedented that far north.



unprecedented in history records of modern mankind.

I'm sure New York has seen worse floods.

The damage is unprecedented though, tends to happen when you build in the floodplain.
Quoting medicroc:
To all over you who "overhyped" this storm... A since thank you. I really mean it.
Im just glad, some took it to heart and did prepare, it was an amazing storm to watch and to those suffering right now< I hope you can get thru this and repairs go smoothly for you..so many suffering right now, it hit 15 states geez, what a monster she was
Quoting Wiebel:


unprecedented in history records of modern mankind.

I'm sure New York has seen worse floods.

The damage is unprecedented though, tends to happen when you build in the floodplain.
well i was born there and I never saw anything even close to this there..my guess is..its the worst ever to hit NYC
Quoting luvtogolf:


God did not grant me with a very high IQ. I take offense to being called ignorant. Maybe you should go take a class on how to be a better person.
But of course you realize I called neither you nor anyone else ignorant; I specifically referred to an ignorant way of thinking. Here, allow me to be boring and repetitious:

"The only thing perhaps more ignorant than claiming Sandy was 'caused' solely by global warming would be claiming global warming had nothing to do with Sandy.".

Maybe you should go take a class on how to be a better reader? ;-)
Quoting hydrus:
Caribbean blob looks interesting. If it moves close to the gulf it will get its head chopped off tho.


Will get head chopped of just about anywere right now. That about does it for this very busy season.
Quoting LargoFl:
well wether we today believe it or not, its our kids and their kids who are going to find out IF its true or not and will have to deal with the changing weather and storms etc, my hope is, they will be as strong as we are, to deal with it all
Good post. We are an intelligent race. Too bad some people do not use that very intellect to protect the very source of our existence. No matter how much or little damage humans may have caused already...It is only my opinion that humans and there methods for advancement have polluted the Earth to an unacceptable level, but I am not alone.
Quoting hurricane23:


Will get head chopped of just about anywere right now. That about does it for this very busy season.
Yep..Might get one more named system.
02B.NILAM looking disorganized this am..




96A.INVEST looking quite good..Indian Basin


Quoting ncstorm:
I hate to interrupt the world about to end talk but in present day..

From CNN:

The storm killed 67 people in the Caribbean. Then it slammed into the U.S. East Coast, where it left at least 40 dead. And one woman in Canada died after debris from the storm struck her.
and im afraid as they go house to house in the rubble, they will find more
Cretaceous thermal max, you say? You think that is the climate we are cycling back to?

It would be interesting to return to a climate before any of the flowering plants we use for food existed, and most the insects they use for pollination were matched with them. The first flowering plants began back then possibly from seed ferns. Personally, I don’t want to change back to any climate before humans existed. I prefer a climate that our domesticated plants and animals have lived through too. Just because the earth had a climate like it before, doesn’t mean it is a climate we can survive.

Fortunately, I do like fiddlehead soup.
Hurricane Donna was in September of 1960.....thats the 4th storm that year? Really..?
BBC weather blooper: watch this version of the Sandy storm...Link
from what I can tell from this damg is at so far
$25 billion I think that will likey go up

Link
Off Topic but interesting triva..
After a Nor'easter in 1911 Niagra falls froze completely over..
In a year of weather wierdness as we are having,I'm courious to see if this will occur again..


Edit..Image won't come through..(
We have evidence that this same seafront location has received lots of water in the past most likely caused by Tsunami waves. So knowing that is another possibility that could be faced again and needs to be addressed.
Quoting LargoFl:
well i was born there and I never saw anything even close to this there..my guess is..its the worst ever to hit NYC

Quoting KarenRei:
To reiterate the point (concerning the "hotter in the Cretaceous" comment). The issue is not *that* the climate is changing. The climate is always changing. The issue is the *rate* at which the climate is changing.


I agree. I think the climate has always been changing. The pace is what needs to be focused on.

I have two questions for whomever. As a novice and completely unbiased on-looker, I found myself wondering what AGW stands for: A_______ Global Warming? And what is the difference between that and Climate Change? Thanks!
I've already heard quotes as high as 45 & 50 billion. The Doc's post the other day said a study predicted losses of $55B. I won't be surprised if total US cost adds up to 65-70 billion dollars.
Quoting WXMichael:


I agree. I think the climate has always been changing. The pace is what needs to be focused on.

I have two questions for whomever. As a novice and completely unbiased on-looker, I found myself wondering what AGW stands for: A_______ Global Warming? And what is the difference between that and Climate Change? Thanks!


Anthropogenic (man-made)
FoxNews is now reporting 50 billion in combined economic and damage costs is that accurate
sandy could have been a lot strong like a cat 3-5 if it was in july or AUG damg would have been a lot wores then what you are seeing on TV right now


so it gos too show what a cat 1 storm can do
Quoting mikatnight:
I've already heard quotes as high as 45 & 50 billion. The Doc's post the other day said a study predicted losses of $55B. I won't be surprised if total US cost adds up to 65-70 billion dollars.
and then we have to add in the damage in haiti, DR, bahamas, ect
Climate Change & Global Warming = same thing

The "A" in AGW stands for "Anthropogenic."
Quoting Neapolitan:
But of course you realize I called neither you nor anyone else ignorant; I specifically referred to an ignorant way of thinking. Here, allow me to be boring and repetitious:

"The only thing perhaps more ignorant than claiming Sandy was 'caused' solely by global warming would be claiming global warming had nothing to do with Sandy.".

Maybe you should go take a class on how to be a better reader? ;-)
Perhaps,to be more precise,if one were to begin eating quarter pounders with cheese,beginning at age 16, and then to begin having more frequent episodes of angina,one could possibly attribute that symptom to dietary intake.If,at age 60 one were to have an MI,perhaps there could be a corollary with progressive quarter pounder with cheese intake.I believe we just saw an environmental MI(myocardial infarction)Global warming is real and when nature is done self correcting,there will be a significant body count.Historians will look back to this era and will have difficulty understanding why we could not identify the process.
Quoting mikatnight:
Climate Change & Global Warming = same thing

No. The climate is changing; warming is both part of that change, and driver for other facets of it. But not all climate changes are due to warming, nor is warming the only sign of change.
906. atris
Quoting mikatnight:
Climate Change & Global Warming = same thing



Actually not quite ... Climate Change covers any type of change in climate ..whereas Gobal warming is just about the earth warming...
I don't think anyone bothered to read past my first line. :p

I was talking about greenhouse gases increasing our sensitivity to input changes, which is the whole point of AGW, right?

Sigh...
Once again, those attributing AGW/CC as the sole cause of Sandy are intentionally and repetitively making unscientific judgements. That line of thinking is frivolous, baseless, and has no merit in anything.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
FoxNews is now reporting 50 billion in combined economic and damage costs is that accurate


It's very possible it could be 50 billion.

The damage from Hurricane Sandy is absolutely insane, and rising.
Quoting Neapolitan:
No. The climate is changing; warming is both part of that change, and driver for other facets of it. But not all climate changes are due to warming, nor is warming the only sign of change.
Quoting atris:


Actually not quite ... Climate Change covers any type of change in climate ..whereas Gobal warming is just about the earth warming...


Ok, I know you guys are technically right, but for the most part, I think when people refer to one, they essentially mean the other.
Are any ITCZ disturbances moving north over warm water? Do waves spin off South America some times that turn into tropical storms?
edit.
There are people that still say the sea level isn't rising. Apart from glacial rebound areas like Alaska, places like say Florida, have measured sea level rise for over a century and a half. The debate there is over rate as well, not its existence or direction. But people will still say, I don't believe it.

P.S. I heard 20 billion in damage, 30 billion in business losses. And with reconstruction and its new job creation...a wash on the overall economy.
Quoting Neapolitan:
No. The climate is changing; warming is both part of that change, and driver for other facets of it. But not all climate changes are due to warming, nor is warming the only sign of change.

The odds of these extreme events are only increasing.
oh! I got the 911 spot! Do I win a prize or something?

Free whistle?
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Ugh, the warmists are all over this...


Quoting ScottLincoln:


Research has already suggested the opposite, and shown evidence that it's not just hypothetical or predicted, it may already be happening.
Research has shown that the trough/ridge pattern of the jet stream is amplifying, which slows down larger-scale weather patterns. This means more time in a heat wave favorable pattern, more time in a cold spell favorable pattern, more time in a heavy rain favorable pattern, and so forth.


A slowing rossby wave will result in longer persistence of large areas of low shear..under ridges. What does that imply for tropical development...food for thought.

MercForHire:
Have a question which I SHOULD know the answer to, but don't.

Weather just showed the Jet Stream making a perfect half-circle around Sandy's rear-end (That would be her bottom :) ). So did Sandy PULL the Jet Stream into that arc, or did Sandy slip into an arc which was already there, in effect pulling HER in?




See blog entry for animation.
Quoting Progster:




A slowing rossby wave will result in longer persistence of large areas of low shear..under ridges. What does that imply for tropical development...food for thought.


Thats what I said.
Coast Guard Continues Search For Missing Bounty Captain
ST. PETERSBURG --
A Clearwater Coast Guard crew is part of the search team looking for the captain of the HMS Bounty.

The captain, Robin Walbridge, is from St. Petersburg.

Walbridge has been missing since Monday, when the Bounty sank after being caught in rough wind and waves off the coast of North Carolina caused by Hurricane Sandy.

Fourteen crew members were rescued. One person died, and Walbridge is missing.

"As a C-130 pilot, if we're up there trying to search for a victim in the water, we're looking for any signs of distress, whether it be a flare debris in the water, rafts,(etc.)," said Lt. Drew Sonetirot with the USCG. "We're using equipment like radar to be able to scan the waters."

Coast Guard officials said the crew members were wearing survival suits.

The HMS Bounty was on its way to St. Petersburg and was due to arrive at the Pier on Nov. 10.
Quoting LargoFl:
thats a good point, and dont forget folks..the continents ARE moving, which is why we get the earthquakes, north america IS moving towards europe etc


Oh No... part of the "Plate Tectonic Gang". Since you believe faeries are magically moving the giant continents, what else do you believe?

I suppose you'll tell us that the earth rotates around the sun too. And that people have flown across a quarter of a million miles to the moon. If it's even that far, as I have no way of knowing.

(/sarcasm)

I would agree that this seems like an odd place to be if you don't "believe" in AGW.

On another note, I was looking for a video released by NASA or NOAA showing the average temperature over the last 120 or so years of the instrument record, and I couldn't find it.

I wanted to say, that it wasn't the fact that the average temperatures were going up that made me nervous.

What makes me nervous is that the standard deviation (sigma) is going up. For those that understand statistics, you'll know that 99.99% of everything that happens is between plus and minus 5 sigma of the average. As sigma increases, all kinds of rare events become common events, and things that have never happened before start to become rare.

Since I can't find the graph that clearly shows my point, here's a similar one:

Link
Quoting RainyDaisy:




See blog entry for animation.


for whatever reason, i got paranoid to click on a pdf link. lol It's so easy for someone to come on here and post a link to a malware or a trojan infected file and ba-zingo!

Sorry, that was the InfoSec coming out in me.
Quoting txag91met:

But even if the planet warms some, it doesn't mean that there will be more severe events.

LOL, sorry. The extra energy from more moisture in the atmosphere is one cause of more severe events.

Another cause is the smaller temperature difference between poles and equator leading to a slower jet stream which leads to a more meandering jet stream which causes more blocking patterns which can lead to more persistent drought or rain. With blocking patterns we can expect greater heat where upper level highs set up and remain or greater cold where troughs set up and remain. (Hmmmm, Sandy was kept from going out to sea by a blocking pattern.)

So, actually, emphatically yes. The planet has in fact already warmed some and we should expect more severe events because of that warming. More warming is expected because CO2 is being added to the atmosphere constantly.
Quoting WXMichael:


for whatever reason, i got paranoid to click on a pdf link. lol It's so easy for someone to come on here and post a link to a malware or a trojan infected file and ba-zingo!

Sorry, that was the InfoSec coming out in me.


It pays to be careful, but I am a straight shooter. Go to the legit site rainydaisy.minus.com to view this file and many others like it.
Quoting txag91met:


The atmosphere had perfect conditions for Sandy. The gulf stream was 1-2F warmer than normal. However, the water temps were only near 80F right at the stream, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. So saying that Sandy is a direct result of GW is not correct.



No, you'd have to go through a long recitation of the toe bone is connected to the foot bone, the foot bone is connected to the ankle bone, the ankle bone is connected to the leg bone, the leg bone is connected to the knee bone, the knee bone is connected to the thigh bone, and so on, and so on.

When you get right down to it, it is not worth the breath to do al that. Whether someone can recite it all or not won't change the amount of CO2 we are adding to the atmosphere or the effects it is having.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Once again, those attributing AGW/CC as the sole cause of Sandy are intentionally and repetitively making unscientific judgements. That line of thinking is frivolous, baseless, and has no merit in anything.

I entered your post into the jabberwacky.com chat bot and it replied:

"It's too late to correct it, when you've once said a thing, that fixes it, and you must take the consequences."
Quoting TomballTXPride:

The odds of these extreme events are only increasing.

You know that you just agreed with Nea by saying that?
926. ARiot
The best way to understand it is that a significant amount of energy (heat) is created by human activity related to the release of stored solar energy (in the form of CO2 and other gasses).

This energy (heat) has a measurable impact on a climate that would otherwise be mind-numbingly stable when viewed by a human over their life span. We are a climate forcer. We loaded the climate dice.

Other anthropogenic activity also has impacts on the climate, such as farming, re-routing rivers, building dams, etc. etc. etc. but those forces are less significant in the aggregate, at least based on what we know right now.

Whoever posted that blaming AGW for Sandy is as silly as denial of AGW was right on point. We may never fully understand how much of Sandy's energy was related to anthropogenic forces.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Are any ITCZ disturbances moving north over warm water? Do waves spin off South America some times that turn into tropical storms?
edit.
There are people that still say the sea level isn't rising. Apart from glacial rebound areas like Alaska, places like say Florida, have measured sea level rise for over a century and a half. The debate there is over rate as well, not its existence or direction. But people will still say, I don't believe it.

P.S. I heard 20 billion in damage, 30 billion in business losses. And with reconstruction and its new job creation...a wash on the overall economy.

The Broken Window does not make money growth...
Net Loss, baby! Money don't grow on trees.
Quoting bappit:

You know that you just agreed with Nea by saying that?

Who said I'm disagreeing with her. LOL
Quoting bappit:

I entered your post into the jabberwacky.com chat bot and it replied:

"It's too late to correct it, when you've once said a thing, that fixes it, and you must take the consequences."

Oh, you are so humorous. If only I had the extra time on my hands to do the same with your post. Imagine what I'd come up with!
Quoting bappit:

LOL, sorry. The extra energy from more moisture in the atmosphere is one cause of more severe events.

Another cause is the smaller temperature difference between poles and equator leading to a slower jet stream which leads to a more meandering jet stream which causes more blocking patterns which can lead to more persistent drought or rain. With blocking patterns we can expect greater heat where upper level highs set up and remain or greater cold where troughs set up and remain. (Hmmmm, Sandy was kept from going out to sea by a blocking pattern.)

So, actually, emphatically yes. The planet has in fact already warmed some and we should expect more severe events because of that warming. More warming is expected because CO2 is being added to the atmosphere constantly.


I get what you are saying. However, with regards to the blocking pattern - what about the previous high number of storms that all went out to sea. Isn't it more about timing?
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder just how many people deny that the Earth is warming because they simply like to argue. One would think that folks who do make comments that global warming doesnt exist would have the I.Q. to realize that it is. They should argue how much humans may or may not be affecting the Earths climate, not whether or not that warming is happening as of now.


I agree...I'm quite sure we have contributed...as have animal flatulance, volcanoes and politicians lol
Quoting mistermizu:
BBC weather blooper: watch this version of the Sandy storm...Link


The science is correct. What the BBC needs is someone that knows how to get the graphics correct. Perhaps the graphics designer is from "down under"? None of "our Aussies" would make that mistake, most assuredly.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I get what you are saying. However, with regards to the blocking pattern - what about the previous high number of storms that all went out to sea. Isn't it more about timing?

I'm not going to discuss Sandy. If you want to argue with a parenthetical remark, that's your business.
All of you people saying that the lottery is a sound financial investment are wrong.

All of you people saying puppies aren't cute are totally wrong too.

All of you people saying water isn't wet are also wrong.



OK, see how this works? I can come on here and say "all you people saying X are wrong" and I can insert whatever silly thing I want to insert for X even if nobody has actually said it. But, I think most of the adults in the room realize that doing this is intellectually dishonest.

If you're going to claim that "All the people saying X are wrong" your argument will carry more weight if you include actual quotes of people saying X.

Also, I must say the blog has disappointed me the past couple days. I'm used to the usual AGW arguments, but given the destructiveness of this storm I fully expected to see this comment section packed with current information, storm damage reports, photos, videos, radar loops, etc. Sure, some folks have been posting that kind of info, and of course I always expect a stray AGW comment here and there, but I NEVER would've predicted that such a large portion of the comments would be devoted to these arguments. So much for disasters bringing us closer together...


(Some of the pictures coming out of the Northeast look more like post-war images than post-hurricane...)
Quoting mistermizu:
BBC weather blooper: watch this version of the Sandy storm...Link


That's great. hahaha
Quoting atris:


Actually not quite ... Climate Change covers any type of change in climate ..whereas Gobal warming is just about the earth warming...


Correct, but to further clarify:

Global Warming refers to the over all average warming on a planetary scale, hence the name. Which means that the planetary average temperature is increasing, and also means, for example, that the total amount of ice is decreasing.

Localized contradictions to the mean global trend do not undermine Global Warming, nor the AGW theory.


"Climate Change" in general just means any significant shift in climate, whether hotter, colder, wetter, drier, whatever.
Quoting luvtogolf:


God did not grant me with a very high IQ. I take offense to being called ignorant. Maybe you should go take a class on how to be a better person.

Odd. Nea did not refer to you personally. Why do you take offense to his post?
Quoting WXMichael:
I agree. I think the climate has always been changing. The pace is what needs to be focused on.

Depending on the definition, one could probably say that climate is "always changing." But the rate of change, the type of changes, and the magnitude of the changes differ. Also, without the context of a timescale, the statement "always changing" becomes virtually meaningless hyperbole. What is the definition of "change?" Any aspect of climate changed by any miniscule amount? Temperature changed by more than 0.1C? The average Arctic ice cover changed by more than 100,000sq mi?
Without those kinds of objective, quantifiable definitions, it means nothing scientifically.
Quoting WXMichael:

I found myself wondering what AGW stands for: A_______ Global Warming? And what is the difference between that and Climate Change? Thanks!

AGW = anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming

Climate change is a broad, far reaching term that includes all sorts of change from temperature to precipitation to sea surface temperatures to ice volume to jet stream positions, as averaged over a period of at least a couple decades.

Global warming generally refers to the measured increase in near-surface, lower troposphere temperature observed by land-based stations, buoys and other ocean measurements, weather balloons, and satellite-derived estimates. This definition many times includes warming of the oceans and loss of land/sea ice.

Thus, global warming is a type of climate change, but isn't the only climate change we've observed in recent decades. In many applications, however, the terms are used interchangeably, even if not 100% correct to do so.
135HR 12Z
It use to be that the jet stream curved with slight bows north or south. This meant the jet stream could be bending slightly south-east or slightly north-east. But it was aways flowing from west to east.

But now adays the jet stream is making these huge horseshoe shaped loops. Where it can loop all the way around and actually be flowing north-west.

Which is what happened to sandy just before landfall. How else could a hurricane spead up to 30+ MPH in a north-west to west-north-west direction? Hurricanes only move that fast when they are caught by the jet stream. And since when does the jet stream flow backwards?

As the arctic warms, the temperature difference between the artic and here gets to be less. Thus allowing the jet stream to wander north and south in strange ways.

In a related note: The refreezing of the arctic sea ice has been slowing down in the past few days. Oct may end with another record low ice extent for this time of year.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Quoting ARiot:
The best way to understand it is that a significant amount of energy (heat) is created by human activity related to the release of stored solar energy (in the form of CO2 and other gasses).


Human activity is not "creating" heat. Human activity is enhancing the greenhouse effect which becomes more efficient at trapping heat energy in the form of longwave radiation. Otherwise, that trapped radiation would have escaped to space. Remember, energy isn't created nor destroyed.
Quoting ARiot:

Whoever posted that blaming AGW for Sandy is as silly as denial of AGW was right on point. We may never fully understand how much of Sandy's energy was related to anthropogenic forces.

Repeated, once again: There is no way to ever state that a particular weather event is caused by climate change. But saying that today's weather is not affected by climate change is not correct, either. I'm still not sure who TomballTXPride is referring to when he keeps claiming that scientists/bloggers/pro-AGWers/warmistas/whomever blamed Sandy on AGW/CC.
Quoting MrMixon:
So much for disasters bringing us closer together...



I'm kind of Sandy'd out. It is going to be a long slog before the damage is repaired. Any word on what Portlight is up to?
Quoting bappit:

I'm kind of Sandy'd out. It is going to be a long slog before the damage is repaired. Any word on what Portlight is up to?


it's all on our WU blog....Thanks!!
Quoting Neapolitan:
No. The climate is changing; warming is both part of that change, and driver for other facets of it. But not all climate changes are due to warming, nor is warming the only sign of change.


Hey Nea,

Could I borrow your Al Gore Costume to go trick or treating tonight?

Regards,
Quoting mikatnight:
I'm beginning to think republikins are in a permanent pissed-off state. From what I gather they hate most of the scientific community, government, stem cell research, women's rights, gay rights, voting rights, immigrants, education, the arts & humanities, PBS, Europe, every major news station (except FOX, which is more of a self-described propaganda station), Hollywood, and any comedian not named Foxworthy or Miller.

Dude, you are the hate monger,and im independant. This is exactly what is wrong with society, people generalize everyone into 2 groups. Not everyone fits in your mold bud. You have absolutely no idead what you are talking about, i am sick of people like you. As for the rest of this garbage being thrown out there about AGW and Sandy, The climate is changing, it has always been changing since it began, and will continue to change long after we die off. How much we have contributed to that change is not known because we only have reliable records going back 30-100 years, which is such a small blip in the timeline of earth you wouldnt even be able to see it. Would it help if we take care of our planet, probably, should we spend all our time and money on this when our economy is tanking, no. We should we be responsible stwards of our planet, absolutely. But we are hooked on oil, and will be for the foreseable future, and almost everyone has a car that creates CO2, even the prius brigade is creating CO2 by just breathing, are you gonna stop breathing too?
Quoting MrMixon:
All of you people saying that the lottery is a sound financial investment are wrong.

All of you people saying puppies aren't cute are totally wrong too.

All of you people saying water isn't wet are also wrong.



OK, see how this works? I can come on here and say "all you people saying X are wrong" and I can insert whatever silly thing I want to insert for X even if nobody has actually said it. But, I think most of the adults in the room realize that doing this is intellectually dishonest.

If you're going to claim that "All the people saying X are wrong" your argument will carry more weight if you include actual quotes of people saying X.

Also, I must say the blog has disappointed me the past couple days. I'm used to the usual AGW arguments, but given the destructiveness of this storm I fully expected to see this comment section packed with current information, storm damage reports, photos, videos, radar loops, etc. Sure, some folks have been posting that kind of info, and of course I always expect a stray AGW comment here and there, but I NEVER would've predicted that such a large portion of the comments would be devoted to these arguments. So much for disasters bringing us closer together...


(Some of the pictures coming out of the Northeast look more like post-war images than post-hurricane...)
Good post. With massive devastating storms like Sandy and other similar storms affecting the globe, it was almost inevitable the GW debate would surface here on the good Dr,s blog. I posted my feelings on the subject simply to express my thoughts on posts I have read in the past that did not seem logical. We lost a house to the 1992 December Nor,Easter on the New Jersey Coast, and in no way would diminish the seriousness of situation that millions of folks are experiencing. I now put the GW topic to rest until a later date.
Quoting presslord:


it's all on our WU blog....Thanks!!

Cool-a-mundo!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Who said I'm disagreeing with her. LOL
her s a he
Quoting greenengineer:


Water level in NY Harbor is a foot higher than it was 100 years ago. Flooding was unprecedented.

Also to say that nothing is unprecedented except its size is kind of silly. That's the whole point - the size is unprecedented that far north.



I understand what KoritheMan is saying, and i agree that it is very hard to pinpoint global warming/climate change on any one event.

I also understand what he is saying when he says that the size was the only thing unprecedented... the flooding in NY could have happened with a handful of smaller storms of the same intensity had they hit under the right circumstances, and the rainfall wasn't unusual.

That being said, I think that it is interesting that the five largest Atlantic storms have all occurred in the post-1995 active period that we are in. And they have eclipsed the other largest storms by remarkable margins. Furthermore, four of the top five have been in the last 11 years.

We always hear about storms strengthening with climate change, and lasting further north, but I have never before heard anyone bring up the topic of significantly larger storms. I think that is something worth looking into over the next few seasons.

Storm Season Diameter
(mi) (km)
Sandy 2012 945 1,520
Igor 2010 920 1,480
Olga 2001 865 1,390
Lili 1996 805 1,295
Karl 2004 780 1,255

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Human activity is not "creating" heat. Human activity is enhancing the greenhouse effect which becomes more efficient at trapping heat energy in the form of longwave radiation. Otherwise, that trapped radiation would have escaped to space. Remember, energy isn't created nor destroyed.

Repeated, once again: There is no way to ever state that a particular weather event is caused by climate change. But saying that today's weather is not affected by climate change is not correct, either. I'm still not sure who TomballTXPride is referring to when he keeps claiming that scientists/bloggers/pro-AGWers/warmistas/whomever blamed Sandy on AGW/CC.


Well, there was this report, maybe this was who he was thinking of:

"...FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 26, 2012
CONTACT: Blair FitzGibbon : 202-503-6141 : blair@fitzgibbonmedia.com
Statement by Brad Johnson, campaign manager of Forecast the Facts and ClimateSilence.org:

“If the candidates won’t listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature’s October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what their role as national leaders demands that they also do is explain that Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution..."


MTA photo of post flood debris in South Ferry Subway


The photo below was earlier



http://live.nydailynews.com/Event/Tracking_Hurric ane_Sandy_2?Page=38
Quoting hcubed:


Well, there was this report, maybe this was who he was thinking of:

"...FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: October 26, 2012
CONTACT: Blair FitzGibbon : 202-503-6141 : blair@fitzgibbonmedia.com
Statement by Brad Johnson, campaign manager of Forecast the Facts and ClimateSilence.org:

"If the candidates won't listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature's October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what their role as national leaders demands that they also do is explain that Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature with oil, coal, and gas pollution..."




I am not saying this statement is correct... but at least you should support your position with an honest and accurate quote as seen below:
-------------

Statement on Hurricane Sandy and Climate Silence
Brad Johnson, campaign manager of Forecast the Facts and ClimateSilence.org:

"If the candidates won't listen to the voters demanding they break their climate silence, maybe they will listen to Mother Nature's October Surprise. We know the candidates will be asked about Hurricane Sandy, and will express their sympathy with those affected. They will rightly applaud the first responders, the compassion of neighbors, and the strength and resolve of the American people. But what they should also do, what their role as national leaders demands that they do, is explain why this is happening.

"Hurricane Sandy is a true Frankenstorm, a monster created by man tampering with nature. It is a scientific fact that oil, coal, and gas pollution are fueling freakish climate disasters. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney need to be honest with voters: we have to stop poisoning our weather and start saving our future."


http://forecastthefacts.org/press/releases/2012/1 0/26/statement-hurricane-sandy-and-climate-silence /
Long way out, but interesting...